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Targeting Winners: College Football’s Day of Reckoning

Mark Haines on November 29, 2024

When History Comes Due: College Football’s Day of Reckoning

On the final Saturday of November 2024, college football will remind us why it remains America’s most compelling social experiment. In four different stadiums, eight teams will engage in a ritual that’s equal parts sporting event and psychological warfare. These aren’t just games—they’re settling accounts, tests of collective will, and exercises in mass delusion, where entire states convince themselves that the impossible is probable.

In South Carolina, two programs that share nothing but geography and mutual contempt will try to prove that statistics are just numbers on a page. In Columbus, Ohio State faces the cruel irony of finally getting a vulnerable Michigan team after three years of losses, only to discover that beating a wounded rival might be the most challenging task. In Los Angeles, USC will attempt to salvage a disappointing season by derailing Notre Dame’s playoff dreams, proving once again that nothing satisfies quite like ruining someone else’s perfect ending. And in Eugene, Oregon stands ready to exorcise three years of frustration against a Washington program that’s fallen from national championship contender to cautionary tale in less time than it takes to earn a college degree.

Each of these games carries its own particular strain of madness. Together, they form a perfect case study in how rational human beings – coaches, players, and millions of fans – can convince themselves that history, statistics, and probability are merely suggestions rather than laws. In short, it’s everything that makes college football the most irrational, and therefore most human, of our sports.

The Numbers That Lie: A Tale of Two Programs – South Carolina at Clemson

In the gathering dusk of late November, two football programs circle each other like prizefighters, each convinced they’ve decoded the other’s fatal flaw. The statistics tell one story: Clemson, the higher-ranked team with the more prolific offense, should win this game. But anyone who’s spent time in South Carolina knows that numbers, like the sweet tea served at every diner from Charleston to Greenville, can be deceptive.

The conventional wisdom says Clemson has the edge. Their quarterback, Cade Klubnik, throws for nearly fifty more yards per game than his counterpart. Their offense generates more total yards, touchdowns, and everything that should matter. We could all go home now if football games were played on spreadsheets.

But here’s where it gets interesting.

While everyone’s been watching Klubnik light up the stat sheet, South Carolina has been quietly perfecting the art of chaos. They don’t just play defense; they create havoc. Eighteen forced fumbles this season – a number that makes defensive coordinators salivate and quarterbacks wake up in cold sweats. Their defensive captain, Nick Emmanwori, has turned the secondary into a no-fly zone with four interceptions, but it’s his 76 tackles that tell the real story. He’s not just picking off passes; he’s hunting down ball carriers with the relentless precision of a Wall Street algorithm.

The market inefficiency here – the thing everyone else has missed – is in the special teams battle. South Carolina’s punter, Kai Kroeger, is averaging 47.8 yards per punt, a full five yards more than his Clemson counterpart. In a game where field position is currency, Kroeger prints money with every boot of the ball.

But perhaps the most telling number isn’t on any stat sheet. Five games – that’s how long South Carolina’s winning streak has stretched. Like confidence in financial markets, momentum in football is a self-fulfilling prophecy. Teams that believe they can’t lose often don’t.

The paradox at the heart of this rivalry is that for all of Clemson’s statistical superiority—their 469.9 yards per game, their 30 passing touchdowns, their number twelve ranking—they’re facing an opponent that has mastered the art of winning ugly. South Carolina’s defense doesn’t just stop drives; it ends them violently, with forced fumbles and defensive stands that send offensive coordinators back to their drawing boards.

Ultimately, this game won’t be decided by the comfortable certainties of statistics. It will come down to something far more primal: the ability to create chaos and thrive within it. South Carolina has turned defensive mayhem into an art form, while Clemson has built an offensive machine that looks unstoppable – until it meets a force that doesn’t play by the normal rules of engagement.

Overall Team Comparison

Records and Rankings:

Clemson: 9-2, ranked #12
South Carolina: 8-3, ranked #16

Momentum:

Clemson is on a 3-game winning streak
South Carolina is on a 5-game winning streak

Offensive Analysis

Passing Game:

Clemson’s Cade Klubnik leads a more prolific passing attack (274.6 yards/game) compared to South Carolina’s LaNorris Sellers (225.5 yards/game).
Clemson has a slight edge in passing touchdowns (30 vs. 20).

Rushing Game:

Clemson averages more rushing yards (195.3 vs. 181.8 yards/game).
South Carolina’s Raheim Sanders is the standout rusher with 11 TDs, while Clemson’s Phil Mafah leads with 8 TDs.

Key Playmakers:

Clemson: Antonio Williams (WR, 10 receiving TDs), Phil Mafah (RB, 1012 rushing yards)
South Carolina: Raheim Sanders (RB, 13 total TDs), Joshua Simon (TE, 6 receiving TDs)

Total Offense:

Clemson averages 469.9 yards/game
South Carolina averages 407.3 yards/game

Defensive Analysis

Run Defense:

South Carolina allows fewer rushing yards (103.4 vs. 139.6 yards/game).

Pass Defense:

Both teams are similar, with South Carolina slightly better (200.3 vs. 210.8 yards allowed/game).

Turnovers:

Clemson has more interceptions (13 vs. 12).
South Carolina forces more fumbles (18 vs. 11).

Key Defenders:

Clemson: T.J. Parker (9 sacks), Wade Woodaz and Barrett Carter (61 tackles each)
South Carolina: Kyle Kennard (11.5 sacks), Nick Emmanwori (76 tackles, 4 INTs)

Special Teams

Kicking:

Clemson’s Nolan Hauser: 15/20 FGs, 50/51 XPs
South Carolina’s Alex Herrera: 13/18 FGs, 41/41 XPs

Punting:

South Carolina’s Kai Kroeger averages 47.8 yards/punt
Clemson’s Aidan Swanson averages 42.4 yards/punt

Returns:

Clemson has a slight edge in kick returns (18.8 vs. 17.5 yards/return)
Clemson is significantly better in punt returns (8.2 vs. 5.9 yards/return)

Key Factors for the Matchup

Offensive Firepower: Clemson’s more balanced and productive offense could challenge South Carolina’s defense.
Defensive Playmaking: South Carolina’s defense has shown a greater ability to force turnovers and create big plays.
Quarterback Play: The performance of Klubnik (Clemson) and Sellers (South Carolina) will be crucial.
Field Position Battle: South Carolina’s superior punting game could be a significant factor.
Red Zone Efficiency: Both teams have efficient kickers, making red zone conversions critical.
Momentum: South Carolina enters with a longer winning streak, potentially providing a psychological edge.

Prediction

This matchup promises to be closely contested. South Carolina’s defensive strengths balance Clemson’s offensive advantages. The game could come down to turnovers, special teams play, and quarterback performance in critical moments. Given Clemson’s slightly higher ranking, more balanced offense, and home-field advantage, they might have a slight edge. However, South Carolina’s momentum and defensive playmaking ability make them a formidable opponent. Expect a tight game with the potential for big plays on both sides. The team that manages the turnover battle and performs better in special teams is likely to emerge victorious in what could be a classic rivalry matchup.

The smart money says Clemson wins this game 31-27. That’s what the algorithms predict, the statistical models suggest, and every rational analysis concludes. But there’s something fitting about the fact that this game will be played on the last day of November when the crisp autumn air carries just a hint of winter’s chaos. Because in the end, this rivalry isn’t about the predictable – it’s about the moments that break the models.

Clemson 31, South Carolina 27. That’s what the numbers say. But as one wizened South Carolina assistant coach told me with a knowing smile, “The beautiful thing about this game is that it’s played on grass, not paper.” In Palmetto State, grass has a way of growing wild.

Other Games Where We’re Targeting Winners

Michigan at Ohio State – The Cruelest Game in College Football

There’s a particular kind of torture in being favored by three touchdowns against your most bitter rival. Just ask Ohio State, which enters this year’s edition of The Game carrying the kind of burden that could crush a lesser program: the weight of three straight losses to Michigan, a clear path to the Playoff, and the suffocating expectations that come with being the team that absolutely, positively cannot lose to a 6-5 Michigan squad.

The cruel irony isn’t lost on anyone in Columbus. After years of falling to Jim Harbaugh’s powerhouse Michigan teams, the Buckeyes finally get a vulnerable version of their nemesis – and that somehow makes this game even more dangerous. Michigan’s offense may be diminished, but their defense remains stubborn enough to turn this into the ugly, grinding affair that has haunted Ohio State’s recent nightmares.

For Ohio State, it’s a game of psychological warfare against their own demons. Win, and they secure their spot in the Big Ten title game against Oregon while exorcising three years of Michigan-induced trauma. Lose, and… well, no one in scarlet and gray dares contemplate that scenario, even though their Playoff spot would likely survive such a catastrophe.

Michigan, meanwhile, arrives with the most dangerous weapon in college football: nothing to lose. Their defense, still salty enough to make life difficult for any offense, now gets to play the role of spoiler – a position that has produced some of college football’s most

The Game, as it’s known, has never needed additional drama to justify its appointment-viewing status. But this year’s edition adds a particularly twisted psychological element: Ohio State must beat a weakened version of the team that has tormented them or risk a new level of nightmare. There’s no greater pressure in college football than being the team that absolutely must win.

Prediction: Ohio State 31, Michigan 13. But if Michigan’s defense can force a couple of early turnovers and plant those seeds of doubt, that’s why they play The Game.

Notre Dame at USC – The Perfect Trap

There’s something poetic about Notre Dame having to pass through Los Angeles on its way to the College Football Playoff. Like any good Hollywood script, this one comes with all the classic elements of a potential tragedy: the protagonist riding high after overcoming early adversity, one final obstacle that seems manageable on paper, and an antagonist with nothing left to lose but their pride.

The Irish have spent months rehabilitating their image after that inexplicable slip-up early in the season. Like a forgiving audience, the playoff committee has bought into their redemption arc. However, USC’s Coliseum has always had a way of rewriting expected endings, especially when Lincoln Riley’s teams have their backs against the wall.

The numbers that matter here aren’t USC’s five losses – they’ve faced zero fourth-quarter deficits at home this season. Even Penn State, a team currently sitting in playoff position, needed overtime to escape Los Angeles with a win. For all their deficiencies and inconsistent play, the Trojans have mastered the art of the homestand. They’re like a veteran actor who might forget their lines in a touring production but never misses the mark on their home stage.

Lincoln Riley knows this is his last chance at salvaging something from a disappointing season. Expect him to empty the playbook, unleashing everything in USC’s arsenal – George Tirebiter, Traveler, Tommy Trojan, and even John McKay’s statue if he could make them eligible. In USC’s world, where a 6-5 record feels like a dramatic fall from grace, this game represents their chance at a redemptive finale. They’re not just playing spoiler but fighting for their own Hollywood ending.

And therein lies the trap for Notre Dame. They’ve convinced everyone – the committee, the analysts, perhaps even themselves – that they’ve evolved beyond that early-season stumble. But college football has a cruel sense of symmetry. A season that began with an unexpected stumble could end the same way.

Prediction: USC 34, Notre Dame 31. Because sometimes the best Hollywood endings are the ones nobody sees coming, written by a USC team that’s spent all season practicing fourth-quarter drama.

Washington at Oregon – When Empires Fall

Last January, as Washington walked off the field after the national championship game, the future seemed written in stone. The Huskies had Oregon’s number—three straight wins over their nemesis—and a program trajectory that pointed straight up. The rivalry’s power dynamics had shifted permanently toward Seattle.

Ten months later, the story reads like satire. Oregon stands undefeated, the last perfect team in major college football, while Washington stumbles into Eugene, looking less like a rival and more like a ritual sacrifice. The Ducks aren’t just winning; they’re thriving with the offensive balance that defensive coordinators see in their nightmares. Dillon Gabriel has turned the passing game into performance art, already eclipsing 3,000 yards. At the same time, Jordan James pounds out tough yards on the ground like a metronome measuring Oregon’s inevitable march toward the playoff.

Washington’s Will Rogers, meanwhile, looks like a quarterback trying to read a playbook written in hieroglyphics, throwing more interceptions (six) than touchdowns (two) over his last five games. The Huskies’ only hope lies in their 19th-ranked defense, and the strange mathematics of rivalry games – six of the last nine meetings have been decided by less than seven points.

But there’s something almost quaint about those historical statistics now. They’re like photos from a different era, reminders of when Washington could go toe-to-toe with the Ducks. Oregon doesn’t need this game – they could lose here and in next week’s Big Ten title game and likely still make the playoffs. That’s the kind of security that breeds either complacency or ruthlessness.

Prediction: Oregon 42, Washington 17. The cruelest part of college football’s natural order isn’t the fall from grace – it’s watching your rival ascend to heights you thought would be yours.

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Targeting Winners Gridiron Trifecta: UNLV Battles San Jose State, Ohio State Faces Indiana Upset Bid, USC-UCLA Clash in Crosstown Showdown

Mark Haines on November 22, 2024

In a college football weekend that promises to reshape conference landscapes and ignite rivalries, three pivotal matchups take center stage in this Targeting Winners gridiron trifecta. The 23rd-ranked UNLV Rebels, orchestrating a Cinderella season under Barry Odom, square off against the aerial assault of San Jose State in a Mountain West thriller that could redefine the conference hierarchy

Meanwhile, the Big Ten trembles as Indiana’s high-octane offense, averaging a staggering 43.9 points per game, dares to challenge Ohio State’s fortress-like defense, allowing a mere 10.3 points per game, in a clash that could alter the College Football Playoff picture.

And in Los Angeles, the crosstown rivalry between USC and UCLA takes on newfound urgency, with bowl eligibility hanging in the balance for the Trojans and pride at stake for the Bruins in their inaugural Big Ten season.

It’s a weekend where underdogs dream big, powerhouses defend their thrones, and every snap could alter the course of the season. Tune into the Targeting Winners Podcast for a breakdown of other featured games this week.

UNLV at San Jose State

In the high-stakes arena of college football, UNLV and San Jose State are set to clash in a game that could reshape the Mountain West landscape. It’s a gridiron chess match where UNLV, the 23rd-ranked knight, seeks to outmaneuver San Jose State’s unpredictable rook.

UNLV’s Barry Odom has orchestrated a remarkable turnaround, transforming the Rebels from perennial underdogs into conference contenders. It’s as if he’s taken a rusty jalopy and turned it into a sleek sports car, purring with potential.

Under the guidance of first-year coach Ken Niumatalolo, San Jose State isn’t content to be a mere speedbump on UNLV’s road to glory. They’ve got an ace in Nick Nash, a wide receiver who’s been snagging passes like a spider catching flies in its web. Nash leads the nation in receptions and receiving yards, a one-man highlight reel in cleats.

The numbers paint a picture of contrasting styles. UNLV’s offense is a Swiss Army knife, equally adept at slicing through defenses on the ground or in the air. San Jose State, meanwhile, has embraced aerial warfare, their passing game a veritable fireworks display of yardage and touchdowns.

But football isn’t just a game of statistics; it’s a tapestry woven from moments of individual brilliance. UNLV’s Jackson Woodard, once an overlooked walk-on, has blossomed into a defensive colossus. His journey from bench warmer to award finalist is like watching a caterpillar transform into a butterfly – if that butterfly could tackle with bone-crushing force.

Both teams know the stakes as the Friday night lights flicker to life. For UNLV, it’s a chance to keep their conference title dreams alive, a golden ticket they can’t afford to let slip away. For San Jose State, it’s an opportunity to play the role of a giant killer, to prove that in college football, David can still topple Goliath.

In the end, this game isn’t just about X’s and O’s. It’s a clash of ambitions, a collision of narratives where only one team can write the next chapter. Will UNLV continue their Cinderella season, or will San Jose State rewrite the ending? In the unpredictable world of college football, the only certainty is uncertainty – precisely why we’ll be glued to our seats.

UNLV 31 San Jose State 27

Indiana at Ohio State

Picture this: A crisp November afternoon in Columbus, where the air crackles with the electricity of a top-5 matchup that could reshape the college football landscape. On one side, we have the perennial powerhouse Ohio State Buckeyes, a program so accustomed to success that anything less than a national title is considered a disappointment. On the other, the Indiana Hoosiers, the Cinderella story of the season, daring to dream of glory in a conference that has long been the Buckeyes’ playground.

The numbers tell a compelling story. Indiana’s offense, led by the transfer quarterback Kurtis Rourke, has been a revelation, averaging 43.9 points per game. The offensive explosion would make even the most ardent defensive coordinators lose sleep. Rourke’s efficiency is almost algorithmic – 2,410 yards, 21 touchdowns, and a completion percentage that would make even NFL quarterbacks envious. His favorite target, Elijah Sarratt, has been a big-play machine, turning 38 receptions into 685 yards and six touchdowns. It’s the kind of connection that reminds you of the best buddy cop movies – unexpected but undeniably effective.

But let’s not forget about Ohio State. While not as prolific, the Buckeyes’ offense is a well-oiled machine, averaging 37.8 points per game. Quarterback Will Howard is the Swiss Army knife of college football – 2,484 passing yards, 24 touchdowns through the air, and six more on the ground. It’s like watching a chess grandmaster who suddenly decides to flip the board and challenge you to a game of checkers.

However, defense is where this game might be won. Ohio State’s unit is a fortress, allowing 10.3 points per game. It’s the kind of defense that doesn’t just stop opponents; it crushes their will to compete. While not as dominant, Indiana’s defense has been the epitome of bend-don’t-break, keeping every opponent under 28 points. It’s like watching a tightrope walker navigate a windy day—precarious but somehow always managing to stay upright.

The coaching matchup is where this game gets exciting. With his 65-9 record at Ohio State, Ryan Day is the established titan, the man who inherited Urban Meyer’s empire and made it even more formidable. Curt Cignetti, in his first year at Indiana, is the upstart, the man who’s turned a perennial Big Ten punching bag into a contender. It would be David vs. Goliath if David suddenly discovered he had a cannon for an arm.

And then there’s the Horseshoe. Ohio Stadium isn’t just a venue; it’s a colosseum where Big Ten dreams go to die. The home-field advantage here isn’t just about noise; it’s about history, expectation, and the weight of 100,000 scarlet-clad fans willing their team to victory.

The stakes couldn’t be higher. The winner gets a fast track to the Big Ten Championship and a likely spot in the College Football Playoff. For Indiana, it’s a chance to prove they belong among the elite, to turn their Cinderella story into a dynasty. For Ohio State, it’s about maintaining their iron grip on the conference and keeping their national title hopes alive.

This game has all the makings of an instant classic. Ohio State’s championship DNA and the Horseshoe’s intimidating aura give them the edge, but Indiana’s explosive offense and the chip on their shoulder make them dangerous. Expect a battle that will be discussed for years, likely decided in the final moments.

Ultimately, talent and experience might edge out the fairy tale.

Ohio State 31, Indiana 27.

But in a game like this, the only certainty is that nothing is certain.

USC at UCLA

The crosstown rivalry between USC and UCLA takes on added significance this year as both programs find themselves in unfamiliar territory in their inaugural Big Ten season. With bowl eligibility on the line for USC and pride at stake for UCLA, this matchup could be a turning point for both coaches.

Coaching Hot Seat

Lincoln Riley (USC): In his third year at USC, Riley’s tenure has been a rollercoaster. After an 11-3 debut season in 2022, the Trojans have regressed to 8-5 in 2023 and now sit at 5-5. Riley’s overall record at USC (24-13, 0.649) is far below expectations, especially compared to his dominant run at Oklahoma (55-10, 0.846).

Deshawn Foster (UCLA): In his first year as head coach, Foster has faced significant challenges, guiding the Bruins to a 4-6 record. However, UCLA has shown improvement, winning three of their last four games before losing to Washington.

Key Players to Watch

USC:

QB Jayden Maiava: Taking over as starter, Maiava impressed in his debut against Nebraska, completing 25 of 35 passes for 259 yards and 3 TDs.
RB Jo’quavious Marks: 1,024 rushing yards, 9 TDs, averaging 5.9 yards per carry.
WR Zachariah Branch: 41 receptions, 445 yards, 1 TD.

UCLA:

QB Ethan Garbers: 2,173 passing yards, 14 TDs, 11 INTs.
RB TJ Harden: 384 rushing yards, 1 TD, 336 receiving yards, 1 TD.
LB Carson Schwesinger: 109 tackles, 8 TFL, 3 sacks, 2 INTs.

Statistical Comparison

Statistic	USC	UCLA
Total Offense (yards/game)	438.1	320.6
Passing (yards/game)	288.0	235.2
Rushing (yards/game)	150.1	85.4
Points per game	30.3	18.8
Total Defense (yards allowed/game)	364.7	346.3
Points allowed per game	22.0	27.1

Keys to the Game

USC’s quarterback transition: How will Jayden Maiava perform in his second start, especially in a high-pressure rivalry game?
UCLA’s defensive strategy: Can the Bruins’ defense, which has been solid overall, contain USC’s potent offense?
Turnover battle: Both teams have struggled with giveaways this season. The team that protects the ball better will likely emerge victorious.
Running game: USC’s ground attack, led by Marks, could be the difference-maker against UCLA’s struggling rush defense.

Prediction

Despite UCLA’s recent improvements and home-field advantage, USC’s offensive firepower and need for bowl eligibility should give them the edge. Expect Maiava to build on his strong debut while the Trojans’ running game exploits UCLA’s vulnerabilities.

Final Score: USC 31, UCLA 24

This game could be a defining moment for both programs and their respective coaches. A loss for either could significantly increase the pressure on their job security heading into the offseason.

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This Week’s Targeting Winners Preview: Conference Championship Implications Abound

Mark Haines on November 14, 2024

As we gear up for another edition of the Targeting Winners Podcast, which will be released this Friday (available on Spotify, Apple, or wherever you get your podcasts), let’s dive into three games that have caught our attention—each with its own compelling narrative around coaching futures and championship aspirations.

Boise State at San Jose State: Mountain West Mayhem

The Broncos roll into San Jose as 13.5-point road favorites, but don’t let that spread fool you. This game has all the makings of a classic Mountain West slugfest. Boise State’s Group of Five playoff hopes hang in the balance, with Army and Tulane breathing down their necks.

This is particularly intriguing because San Jose State’s 34th-ranked run defense is squaring up against Ashton Jeanty and the Broncos’ ground game. Add in the Spartans’ explosive receiver Nick Nash (1,156 yards, 13 TDs), and we might see fireworks. Our prediction leans Boise State 34-24, closer than the spread suggests.

Utah at Colorado: Western Pride on the Line

Colorado enters as 10-point home favorites, but there’s more than meets the eye here. The Buffaloes’ dynamic duo of Shedeur Sanders and Travis Hunter face their stiffest test against Utah’s 8th-ranked pass defense. Coming off a controversial loss to BYU, the Utes are hungry for redemption.

The stakes? Colorado’s chasing both a Big 12 Championship berth and playoff dreams. This is a classic defense-versus-offense showdown, landing around 27-20 Colorado. That Utah pass defense is no joke, folks.

Texas at Arkansas: SEC Preview with Job Security Subplots

Here’s where things get spicy. Texas (-15) returns to the scene of one of Steve Sarkisian’s early career lowlights – that 40-21 beating in 2021. But the real story here is Sam Pittman’s job security at Arkansas.

Pittman’s situation is fascinating. The fanbase loves him personally, but what about those on-field results? Not so much. Here’s the kicker – Pittman needs two more wins, including a bowl victory, to trigger an automatic extension and bonus. After that Ole Miss embarrassment exposed some disciplinary issues, every game becomes a must-win for his future in Fayetteville.

Arkansas’s pass rush and run defense could make things interesting, but Texas’s talent advantage should prevail. We’re looking at Texas 35-24, though don’t be shocked if Pittman’s squad comes out swinging – there’s more than just pride on the line here.

Make sure to catch the full breakdown on this week’s Targeting Winners Podcast. The crew always brings insights you won’t find anywhere else, and these games deserve that deep-dive treatment.

For more in-depth analysis and daily updates on coaching hot seats across college football, keep it locked on CoachesHotSeat.com.

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Week 11’s Hidden Gems: Why the Computers Love Indiana (-14.5) and Doubt Georgia (-2.5)

Mark Haines on November 7, 2024

College Football’s Week 11 Hidden Gems

Every Thursday afternoon, I lay out the games that have caught my analytical eye – the matchups where the numbers whisper something different than the conventional wisdom shouts. This week, I’m focused on three contests that feel like finding mispriced assets in an efficient market: Indiana, that offensive juggernaut masquerading as a No. 8 team, laying 14.5 points against Michigan’s statistical regression to mediocrity; Ole Miss, where the computers suggest Georgia’s dynasty might be vulnerable, priced at just +2.5 at home; and undefeated Army, dominating opponents by four touchdowns per game yet valued as mere 5.5-point favorites against North Texas’s explosive offense. Compare these picks with what you’ll hear on the Targeting Winners Podcast (dropping every Friday afternoon on Spotify, Apple, or wherever you consume your gambling insights) and make your own calls. In a sport where everyone claims to know what will happen next, sometimes the best strategy is following where the numbers – not the noise – lead you.

Michigan at No. 8 Indiana

In the grand theater of college football, where narratives shape reality as much as the numbers that describe it, there’s something deliciously compelling about Indiana’s position heading into Week 11. The Hoosiers, those perennial Big Ten afterthoughts, find themselves winning and dominating – the kind of dominance that makes the spreadsheet jockeys at FanDuel set a -14.5 point spread against Michigan. Yes, that Michigan.

The analytics tell a story that would have seemed unthinkable just months ago. Under first-year coach Curt Cignetti, Indiana’s offense isn’t just good – it’s third in the nation, averaging 47 points per game. This kind of statistical anomaly makes you wonder if someone’s Excel formula has gone haywire. But no, the Hoosiers are genuinely reshaping the geometry of Big Ten football. At the same time, Michigan’s offense has become a case study in regression to the mean, ranking an almost incomprehensible 116th nationally in scoring.

The quants have spoken, and their computers have run 20,000 simulations of this matchup. In 86.9% of these digital futures, Indiana emerges victorious. If you’re wondering what this looks like in real numbers, that’s 17,380 victories to 2,620 losses. The machines think Indiana will win by 16.8 points, enough to cover the spread and then some.

But here’s where it gets interesting: The betting public, those eternal skeptics of sudden transformation, are still showing traces of doubt. While 66% of bets are riding with Indiana to cover, there’s a stubborn 34% clinging to the idea that Michigan will either pull off the upset or keep it within two touchdowns. It’s the kind of contrarian betting behavior that usually signals either prescience or delusion – and we won’t know which until Saturday afternoon.

Indiana’s perceived slight in the College Football Playoff rankings is the most fascinating subplot. Despite being undefeated, they sit at No. 8, with the committee pointing to their 82nd-ranked strength of schedule like accountants finding a rounding error in the books. Their best wins? Washington and Nebraska, both 5-4. It’s the kind of resume that makes the traditional powers smirk – until they face this offensive juggernaut beating FBS opponents by nearly four touchdowns per game.

Followers of the Targeting Winners Podcast know that betting against momentum like Indiana’s is akin to fighting the tide. The analytics give them an 86.5% chance of making the playoff, projecting 11.3 wins this season. Meanwhile, Michigan is projected for just 6 wins – the number that makes you wonder if someone accidentally divided by two.

When CBS’s cameras roll at 3:30 PM Eastern on Saturday, we’ll witness either the continuation of Indiana’s improbable ascension or a reminder that football, like markets, can correct violently and without warning. The smart money – and the machines – are betting on the former.

But then again, that’s why they play the games.

No. 3 Georgia at No. 16 Ole Miss

There’s a peculiar beauty in watching markets adjust to new information, and that’s exactly what we’re witnessing in Oxford this week. The mighty Georgia Bulldogs, winners of 11 of their last 12 against Ole Miss, arrive as mere 2.5-point favorites. The spread makes you wonder if the bookmakers know something the rest of us don’t.

The analytics paint a picture that would have seemed absurd just weeks ago. The SP+ model, that grand attempt to quantify college football’s “most sustainable and predictable aspects,” has Ole Miss winning 28-26. In predictive models, this is the equivalent of a Wall Street quant suggesting that a blue-chip stock is about to underperform. The computers have run their simulations 20,000 times, and in 53.9% of these digital futures, the Rebels emerge victorious. It’s a razor-thin margin that suggests we’re witnessing something approaching perfect market efficiency in college football odds.

But here’s where it gets interesting: Ole Miss has been manufacturing points like a tech company manufactures growth statistics, ranking sixth nationally by averaging 23 points better than its opponents. Georgia, meanwhile, has been merely mortal, outperforming its competition by 11.7 points—the kind of regression that makes defensive coordinators wake up in cold sweats.

The most fascinating subplot in all this is the efficiency metrics. Ole Miss’s defense – yes, their defense – ranks third in FBS by surrendering just 0.192 points per play. It’s the kind of statistical anomaly that makes you double-check your spreadsheets. Georgia’s offense sits at a respectable 15th nationally, allowing 0.286 points per play. However, in the zero-sum game of elite college football, being merely “respectable” is often a predictor of impending doom.

The betting markets, efficient processors of public sentiment, show a slight lean toward convention—55% of bets are riding with Georgia. It’s as if the market can’t quite bring itself to believe what the numbers tell it, like investors holding onto a falling stock because they remember its glory days.

For those following the Targeting Winners Podcast, this game represents a classic conflict between narrative and numbers. The narrative says Georgia is still Georgia, still the team that demolished these same Rebels 52-17 last year in Athens. The numbers, however, tell a different story.

Carson Beck’s 11 interceptions loom over this game like a credit default swap in 2008 – a hidden risk that could suddenly become visible. Meanwhile, Jaxson Dart just finished carving up Arkansas for 515 yards and six touchdowns, the kind of performance that makes predictive models recalibrate their assumptions in real time.

When ABC’s cameras go live at 3:30 PM Eastern on Saturday, we’ll watch more than just a football game. We’ll be watching a market correction in real-time, a test of whether the traditional power structures of college football can withstand the assault of pure statistical efficiency. The FPI gives Georgia an 83.5% chance of making the playoff, while Ole Miss sits at 61.1%—numbers that could shift dramatically based on three hours in Oxford.

The smart money – and the machines – say Ole Miss by a field goal or less. In a sport increasingly dominated by data, sometimes the most radical act is simply believing what the numbers tell you.

No 25 Army at North Texas

In the efficient college football betting market, a price discovery problem occasionally emerges that makes you question everything you think you know about value. Consider Army, undefeated and ranked 25th, favored by merely 5.5 points against North Texas. The spread makes you wonder whether the market has identified a fundamental flaw in Army’s pristine record or if we’re witnessing a massive pricing error.

The numbers tell a story of two teams operating in entirely different realities. Army’s outscoring opponents by 26.6 points per game – the margin that typically commands double-digit spreads. But here’s where the market gets interesting: six of their seven FBS victories have come against teams with losing records. It’s like a hedge fund posting impressive returns while trading only the most predictable securities.

Enter North Texas, the Mean Green chaos merchants of the American Athletic Conference. They possess the conference’s highest-scoring offense, the statistical outlier that makes Army’s defensive metrics look like they might have been compiled in a different era of football. Their quarterback, Chandler Morris, just finished dissecting Tulane’s defense for 449 yards on 38-of-57 passing – the kind of efficiency that makes option-based teams break out in hives.

The betting market has priced this game like a tech stock during earnings season – volatile and uncertain. Army sits at -186 on the moneyline, which translates to an implied probability that seems almost quaint given their perfect record. The Black Knights are 6-0 as favorites this season, the kind of trend that typically makes sharps salivate. But North Texas, at +153, has shown a propensity for violence against point spreads, covering four times in eight attempts.

This game represents a classic market inefficiency for those following the Targeting Winners Podcast. Army’s backup quarterback engineered a 20-3 victory over Air Force, while Morris and company have treated defensive coordinators like day traders during a flash crash.

The total is 63.5, which suggests the market expects North Texas to dictate the tempo. This is a reasonable assumption considering Morris’s recent performance: 449 yards against Tulane, the kind of number that makes service academies reconsider their defensive philosophies.

When ESPN2’s cameras go live at 3:30 PM Eastern on Saturday, we’ll witness either a market correction or a confirmation that sometimes perfect records are less valuable than they appear. Army coach Jeff Monken might get his starting quarterback Daily back, but in a game where North Texas treats passing yards like venture capitalists treat revenue growth, it might not matter.

The computers and the sharps seem to be telling us that Army’s undefeated record is about to face its strongest stress test yet. In a sport increasingly dominated by offensive efficiency, sometimes the best bet is against perfection.

Who are you picking this week? Comment here.

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Blog Article

Coaches Hot Seat is Targeting Winners for Week 10

Mark Haines on October 31, 2024

Okay, folks, get ready. It’s that time of the week again when we dive headfirst into the chaotic, beautiful mess that is college football. Friday’s episode of the Targeting Winners podcast (available on Spotify, Apple, or wherever you get your podcasts) is coming at you hot, and trust me, you don’t want to miss this. They’ll be talking Xs and Os, dissecting matchups, and uncovering those hidden gems that’ll have you cashing in come Saturday.

Today, I’ll share my weekend bets and prep with you. I’m not just throwing darts at a board. I’m breaking down film, analyzing stats, and getting into the nitty-gritty.

This week, I’ve got three games I’m reviewing: San Diego State at Boise State, Ohio State at Penn State, and Pitt at SMU. We’re talking potential upsets, high-scoring shootouts, and maybe even a bit of old-fashioned smashmouth football. So read my breakdown below, make your picks, and fire up Spotify, Apple, or wherever you get your podcasts on Friday afternoon. Then, get ready to ride the wave with us.

San Diego State at (15) Boise State

The San Diego State Aztecs (3-4) will face the No. 15 Boise State Broncos (6-1) in a Mountain West Conference matchup on Friday, November 1, 2024, at Albertsons Stadium in Boise, Idaho14. The game will kick off at 8:00 p.m. ET and be broadcast on Fox Sports 14.

Betting Odds and Predictions

Boise State is heavily favored in this matchup:

Spread: Boise State -23.5
Moneyline: Boise State -2439, San Diego State +1096
Over/Under: 57.5 points14

The College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter (CFN FPM) has a slightly tighter spread of Boise State -18.54.

Key Factors

Home Field Advantage: Boise State has a strong home field advantage, but San Diego State has won at Albertsons Stadium in the past (2018 and 2012).

Head-to-Head Record: This will be the 10th meeting between the two teams, with Boise State holding a slight 5-4 advantage.

Recent Performance: Boise State has won every game where it has been favored this year, while San Diego State has failed to win as an underdog.

Against the Spread (ATS): San Diego State is 3-2 ATS as an underdog, while Boise State has failed to cover three times as a double-digit favorite.

Weather: The forecast calls for temperatures around 42 degrees with a chance of showers, which could impact game performance.

Outlook by Team

San Diego State:

New head coach Sean Lewis wants to improve last year’s 4-8 record.
The Aztecs have an 8.3% winning probability for this game.
Their season outlook improves after this game, with better winning probabilities against upcoming opponents.

Boise State:

The Broncos have a 91.7% winning probability for this game.
They are on track for a potential Group of Five spot in the College Football Playoff, and their remaining games have high winning probabilities.

Analysis

Okay, you’ve got this classic David vs. Goliath scenario brewing in Boise. San Diego State, the scrappy underdog, is rolling into town with a new coach and something to prove. They’re like the Oakland A’s of college football, trying to outsmart the system with grit and a lot of hustle. But then there’s Boise State, the perennial powerhouse, the kings of the blue turf. They’re the New York Yankees, used to winning and expected to dominate.

But here’s the thing: Boise State has this weird quirk. When they’re supposed to win big, they sometimes… don’t. It’s like they get bored or something. And San Diego State? Well, they’ve been defying expectations all season. They’re like that one stock you didn’t think would make a comeback, but suddenly it’s surging. Nobody saw it coming.

You might think this is just another game, but it’s more than that. It’s a clash of cultures, a test of wills. Can San Diego State, with its new coach and underdog mentality, pull off the upset? Or will Boise State crush their dreams with its home-field advantage and history of dominance? It’s a high-stakes game, and the tension is thicker than the Idaho potato soup they serve in the stadium.

Prediction

The air crackles with anticipation. The Broncos, bathed in the eerie glow of the blue turf, exude an aura of invincibility. But beneath the surface, a tremor of doubt. The Aztecs, eyes locked on their prey, carry the quiet confidence of a wolf pack circling its quarry.

This is not a game of mere statistics and spreadsheets. It’s a battle of souls, a collision of destinies. Boise State, the established power, yearns to maintain its grip on the throne. The hungry challenger, San Diego State, fights for recognition and a place at the table.

The final whistle blows. The scoreboard tells a story of Boise State’s dominance: 35-14. But the numbers don’t reveal the whole truth. They don’t show the fierce struggle, the moments of brilliance, the echoes of what could have been. San Diego State, though defeated, leaves the field with heads held high. They have pushed the giants to the brink, proven their mettle, and earned respect that transcends the final score.

Game 2: (3) Ohio State at (7) Penn State

No. 3 Ohio State (7-1) will face No. 7 Penn State (7-0) in a crucial Big Ten matchup on Saturday, November 2, 2024, at Beaver Stadium in University Park, Pennsylvania. The game will kick off at noon ET and be broadcast on Fox.

Betting Odds and Predictions

The betting odds and predictions for this game are notably close:

Spread: SMU -7.5
Moneyline: SMU -340, Pittsburgh +270
Over/Under: 59 points

Interestingly, the College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter (CFN FPM) slightly favors Penn State with a spread of Penn State -1.5.

Key Factors

Recent History: Ohio State has won the last seven meetings between these teams, indicating a psychological edge.
Home Field Advantage: Penn State will benefit from playing at Beaver Stadium, which could be a significant factor.
Against the Spread (ATS): Both teams are 3-4 ATS this season, suggesting neither has a clear advantage in covering the spread.
Recent Performance: Ohio State has failed to cover in their last two games, including a narrow loss to Oregon.
Weather: The forecast calls for partly cloudy conditions with mild temperatures, which shouldn’t significantly impact the game.

Outlook by Team

Ohio State:

The Buckeyes have a 47.5% winning probability for this game.
A win would keep them in contention for the Big Ten Championship and the College Football Playoff.
Their remaining schedule looks favorable, with high winning probabilities against most opponents.

Penn State:

The Nittany Lions have a 52.5% winning probability for this game.
A win could potentially secure their spot in the College Football Playoff and the Big Ten title game.
Their remaining schedule appears relatively easy, with high winning probabilities against all opponents.

Analysis

This game is a real barnburner. Ohio State, the big, bad Buckeyes, strolling into Happy Valley like they own the place. They’re the Goldman Sachs of college football, all about tradition and pedigree. But Penn State? They’re the hungry upstarts, the Robinhood traders trying to disrupt the establishment.

Now, on paper, Ohio State should have this in the bag. They’ve got the history, the talent, the whole nine yards. But something’s not quite right. They’ve been stumbling lately, like a thoroughbred with a pulled hamstring. And Penn State? They’re playing with a fire in their belly, a chip on their shoulder. They’re like that meme stock, GameStop, ready to explode.

But here’s the kicker: Penn State has this weird thing about pressure. It’s like they get stage fright when the spotlight’s on. And Ohio State? Well, they’re used to the big stage. They thrive on it. It’s like they’re playing with house money.

This game is not just about X’s and O’s. It’s about psychology, about who wants it more. With their home crowd and underdog mentality, can Penn State pull off the upset? Or will Ohio State silence the doubters with their championship pedigree and ability to perform under pressure? It’s a high-stakes game, folks, and the tension is thicker than a Philly cheesesteak.

Prediction

This is not merely a contest of athletic prowess. It’s a clash of wills, a battle for supremacy. Hungry for victory, Penn State seeks to break the chains of history. Ohio State, the reigning king, fights to preserve its legacy.

The final whistle echoes through the valley. The scoreboard illuminates the night: Penn State 24, Ohio State 21. The upset is complete. The Nittany Lions have roared to victory, their hearts and spirit carrying them through the storm. Ohio State, wounded but not broken, retreats into the night, knowing that the battle for dominance has just begun.

Game 3: Pitt @ SMU

No. 18 Pittsburgh (7-0, 3-0 ACC) will face No. 20 SMU (7-1, 4-0 ACC) in a crucial ACC matchup on Saturday, November 2, 2024, at Gerald J. Ford Stadium in University Park, Texas—the game broadcast on the ACC Network.

Betting Odds and Predictions

The betting odds for this game favor SMU:

Spread: SMU -7.5
Moneyline: SMU -340, Pittsburgh +270
Over/Under: 59 points

Interestingly, the College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter (CFN FPM) sees the game as a “pick’em”.

Key Factors

Historical Record: SMU leads the all-time series 3-2-1, with their last meeting in 2012.

Recent Performance: Pittsburgh is undefeated at 7-0, while SMU has a strong 7-1 record.

Against the Spread (ATS): Pittsburgh has been excellent ATS at 6-1, including 2-0 as an underdog. SMU has failed to cover three times as a favorite this season.

Weather: The forecast calls for rainy conditions, which could impact the game plan for both teams.

Quarterback Play: SMU’s switch to Kevin Jennings at quarterback has recently improved their performance.

Outlook by Team

Pittsburgh:

The Panthers have a 50.6% winning probability for this game.
They’ve won many close games this season, suggesting luck and resilience.
Their defense has been opportunistic, with three pick-sixes in their last game against Syracuse.

SMU:

The Mustangs have a 49.4% winning probability for this game.
They’ve shown consistent improvement, especially since changing quarterbacks.
SMU is coming off a game with six turnovers, which is likely an anomaly.

Analysis

In this matchup, we have two overperforming squads defying preseason predictions, each with a unique storyline. Pittsburgh, sitting undefeated, has won a series of nail-biters, showing grit but perhaps testing the bounds of luck. Conversely, SMU has been on a steady upward trajectory, bolstered by a passionate home crowd that could be a game-changer.

Key Factors to Watch:

Turnover Battle: Both teams have recently emerged from turnover-heavy games that were borderline chaotic. But volatility doesn’t tend to linger; we’re likely to see a reversion to the mean here. This could give an edge to whichever team capitalizes on each opportunity.

SMU’s Dual-Threat QB: Pittsburgh’s defense hasn’t faced a genuine dual-threat quarterback, which will test their ability to handle both the pass and the scramble. SMU’s quarterback, Jennings, brings a dynamic quality that could break open Pittsburgh’s defensive schemes.

Weather Impact: Forecasts call for rain, which often turns passing into a slippery gamble. In such conditions, expect a heavy reliance on the ground game, potentially increasing the chance of turnovers, fumbles, and short-field opportunities.

Prediction

While Pittsburgh has proven itself resilient in close encounters, SMU’s home-field advantage and steadily improving roster could tilt the scales. Jennings and the Mustangs’ offense should be capable of pressuring Pittsburgh’s defense in ways they haven’t yet experienced this season. Given a return to average turnover rates and SMU’s balanced approach, they look positioned to edge out the Panthers.

Score Prediction:

SMU 31, Pittsburgh 24

This forecast aligns with the current betting odds, reflecting the likely tightness of the contest. With the potential for rain to stymie offensive flow, the game should settle under the 59-point over/under, as weather conditions push teams to lean more on the ground game and conservative strategies.

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