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The Clean Slate: Matt Entz and Fresno State’s Championship Caliber Reset

Mark Haines on July 25, 2025

Fresno State’s Matt Entz isn’t just another coaching hire.

The numbers tell a brutal truth about Fresno State’s 2024 campaign that few want to acknowledge: this was a program treading water, not swimming toward anything meaningful. A 6-7 record, including a gut-wrenching 28-20 double-overtime loss to Northern Illinois in the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl, represented the culmination of systemic issues that had been festering beneath the surface of what appeared to be consistent mediocrity.

But here’s where the human element gets fascinating. Fresno State athletic director Garrett Klassy didn’t panic-hire from the hot coordinator carousel or make a desperate play for a retreaded Power Five washout. Instead, he identified Matt Entz, a championship-caliber coach whose 60-11 record at North Dakota State included two FCS national titles and a staggering 15-3 playoff record.

The decision reveals something profound about institutional self-awareness: Fresno State recognized they needed someone who knew how to build winners, not someone who merely knew how to manage talent.

The Numbers Don’t Lie: What Went Wrong in 2024

The 2024 season was a masterclass in statistical mediocrity.

The raw statistical evidence from 2024 reveals the fundamental flaws that interim head coach Tim Skipper was unable to address. Fresno State averaged 340.6 total yards per game while surrendering 355.6 to opponents. That negative yardage differential of 15 yards per game tells the story of a team consistently playing from behind the chains.

The rushing attack was historically bad:

  • Just 98.2 yards per game
  • A pathetic 3.4 yards per carry
  • Ranked 10th in the Mountain West

The defense couldn’t stop anyone on the ground:

  • Allowed 139.4 rushing yards per game
  • Created a vicious cycle of poor field position
  • Let opponents control the clock and tempo

Turnovers told the real story:

  • Generated 20 turnovers on defense (15 interceptions, 5 fumbles)
  • Gave up 17 turnovers on offense
  • Starting QB Mikey Keene threw 11 interceptions alone

Perhaps most telling was the road performance: 2-4 away from Valley Children’s Stadium, with offensive output dropping to 302.7 yards per game.

Championship programs travel well because their identity is not dependent on environmental advantages.

The Entz Factor: Why This Hire Changes Everything

Matt Entz arrives in Fresno with credentials that surpass those of most Group of Five hires.

His tenure at North Dakota State wasn’t only successful but also historically dominant. The 2019 season saw NDSU go 16-0, making Entz the first Division I head coach to achieve a perfect season in his first full year. That team finished with a 37-game winning streak, the third-longest in Division I history.

But statistics only tell part of the story:

  • Developed eight NFL Draft picks at NDSU
  • Coached Trey Lance to become the third overall pick in 2021
  • Operated in an environment where championships were expected, not hoped for

The USC experience added another crucial dimension. In his lone season as assistant head coach for defense and linebackers, Entz helped the Trojans improve from 119th to 70th in total defense. Working under Lincoln Riley exposed him to modern offensive concepts while reinforcing his defensive principles at the FBS level.

Riley’s endorsement carried weight: “He made us better, he made me better.”

The Human Reality: Why Fresno State Fans Should Be Cautiously Optimistic

The hiring of coaches from successful FCS programs carries inherent risk.

The talent differential between the Missouri Valley Football Conference and the Mountain West is significant. However, Entz’s profile suggests someone uniquely equipped to navigate this transition. His defensive coordinator background at Western Illinois, Northern Iowa, and North Dakota State demonstrates adaptability across different systems and talent levels.

More importantly, Entz brings what Fresno State has lacked: a clear philosophical identity.

His press conference remarks about “leading the country in physicality” and building a “run-first offense” aren’t coach-speak platitudes. They represent a fundamental shift from the finesse-oriented approach that produced inconsistent results in 2024.

The roster construction for 2025 reflects this philosophical shift:

  • The transfer quarterback, E.J. Warner from Temple, provides experienced leadership
  • Sophomore Bryson Donelson returns after averaging 6.0 yards per carry as a freshman
  • Multiple offensive line additions, including junior college transfers
  • Immediate emphasis on establishing physical dominance up front

This isn’t just roster management—it’s cultural transformation.

The Realistic Expectations: What Success Looks Like in Year One

The 2025 schedule presents both opportunities and landmines.

Opening at Kansas on August 23 provides an immediate measuring stick against a Big 12 program. Home games against Georgia Southern, Nevada, San Diego State, Wyoming, and Utah State offer winnable contests if Entz can establish his system quickly.

The road slate is unforgiving:

  • Oregon State
  • Colorado State
  • Boise State
  • San Jose State

Success in 2025 won’t be measured by wins and losses alone but by evidence of systematic improvement in the areas that plagued the 2024 team.

Data-wise, watch for improved rushing offense and third-down conversion rates. If Entz can establish a ground game that consistently generates 4.5 yards per carry while improving third-down efficiency from 2024’s levels, the foundation for sustained success will be evident.

Defensively, reducing explosive plays and improving red zone defense should be immediate priorities.

The Deeper Truth: Why This Hire Matters Beyond Football

The Matt Entz hiring represents something larger than football strategy.

It signals that Fresno State refuses to accept mediocrity as its ceiling. In a landscape where Group of Five programs often settle for coaches who “understand the level,” Fresno State pursued someone who has consistently operated above it.

This philosophical approach extends beyond X’s and O’s:

  • Recruiting strategy focused on maximizing Central Valley talent
  • Cultural reset emphasizing “transformational leadership.”
  • Playing “for the logo” rather than individual accolades
  • Building for Pac-12 competition starting in 2026

The transition to the Pac-12 in 2026 adds urgency to this rebuild. Entz isn’t just preparing for Mountain West competition; he’s laying the groundwork for a program that can compete with Oregon State, Washington State, and other Pac-12 members.

The championship pedigree he brings suggests he understands the difference between building for survival and building for dominance.

The Bottom Line: A Foundation for Sustained Excellence

Matt Entz arrives at Fresno State with a hot seat rating of 0.0—the luxury afforded to new coaches with proven track records.

However, the numbers and human story suggest this hire represents more than a fresh start; it represents a fundamental shift in institutional ambition.

The 2024 season’s struggles created the conditions for meaningful change. The 6-7 record and bowl loss wasn’t just disappointing results; they were symptoms of a program that had lost its identity.

Entz brings clarity to that identity:

  • Physical, disciplined football
  • Championship-caliber expectations
  • Systematic player development
  • Cultural transformation from top to bottom

Success in 2025 should be measured not just by bowl eligibility but by evidence of systematic improvement. If Fresno State can establish a punishing ground game, reduce turnovers, and show the mental toughness to win close games on the road, the foundation for sustained excellence will be in place.

The Matt Entz era begins with unprecedented expectations for a first-time FBS head coach.

His championship pedigree and proven ability to develop talent suggest those expectations aren’t misplaced. For a program preparing to compete in the Pac-12, this hire could represent the difference between surviving conference realignment and thriving in it.

The data shows the clear truth: Fresno State needed someone who knew how to win at the highest level. The human reality is equally compelling: they found him.

Now the only question is whether the Central Valley is ready for championship-caliber football.

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Wyoming Football 2025 Season Preview: Jay Sawvel’s Critical Second Year

Mark Haines on July 24, 2025

Jay Sawvel inherited something both precious and dangerous when he took over Wyoming football.

The 33rd head coach in program history faces a paradox that would terrify most coaches: he must honor a decade of unprecedented stability while proving he can exceed the modest ceiling that same stability created. His hot seat rating of 0.531 after just one season reveals an uncomfortable truth about coaching transitions at programs caught between respectability and relevance.

The fear isn’t just about wins and losses. It’s about determining whether Wyoming’s defensive identity under Sawvel, as coordinator, was the foundation of success or merely a byproduct of Craig Bohl’s comprehensive system. Now, with a 3-9 inaugural season behind him and mounting pressure to validate Athletic Director Tom Burman’s internal promotion, Sawvel faces the existential coaching question: was he promoted because he was the best candidate, or because he was the safest one?

When Defense Couldn’t Save the Day

Sawvel’s first season exposed the fragility of Wyoming’s recent success.

The Cowboys’ 3-9 record (2-5 Mountain West) represented their worst performance since the pre-Bohl era. The numbers tell a story of systematic offensive failure that undermined four years of defensive development:

  • Offensive output: Just 19.3 points and 327.3 yards per game
  • Passing attack: 52.2% completion rate, 189.4 yards per game, 0.9 passing touchdowns per contest
  • Quarterback instability: Evan Svoboda managed 5 touchdowns against 8 interceptions before giving way to Kaden Anderson
  • Close game struggles: 2-7 record in contests decided by eight points or fewer

The defensive side, Sawvel’s supposed area of expertise, allowed 410.6 yards per game. While not catastrophic, it represented significant regression from the units that helped define Wyoming football under Bohl. The Cowboys surrendered 218.9 passing yards and 191.7 rushing yards per game, failing to force the game-changing turnovers that had become their trademark.

Seven of their nine losses came by margins that indicated competitive capability undermined by crucial mistakes.

The Statistical Split That Reveals Everything

Here’s what makes Wyoming’s 2024 season so maddening: when they were good, they were really good.

In victories, the Cowboys averaged 39.7 points and 435 total yards per game. This 20-point differential between wins and losses exposed the binary nature of Sawvel’s first season. When things worked, they worked spectacularly. Consistency remained elusive.

The three wins showcased different versions of competitive football:

  • Air Force (31-19): Defensive dominance
  • New Mexico (49-45): Offensive explosiveness
  • Washington State (15-14): Clutch execution

Yet the Cowboys couldn’t string together this level of performance across twelve games.

Special teams provided unexpected stability amid the chaos. Kicker John Hoyland converted all 25 extra points and 15 of 19 field goals, while punter Jack Culbreath averaged 40.4 yards per punt. However, all three specialists graduated, creating another area of uncertainty for 2025.

Addition Through Subtraction: The 2025 Roster Mathematics

Wyoming’s outlook hinges on whether losing its defensive leaders can somehow improve the team.

The graduation of linebacker Shae Suiaunoa (88 tackles, 10 TFL), safety Connor Shay (76 tackles), and defensive back Wrook Brown (48 tackles, 3 interceptions) removes the defensive spine that helped define recent Wyoming teams. This isn’t just about losing tackles. It’s about losing the voices that made defensive adjustments and kept younger players focused.

Yet the offensive foundation offers genuine optimism:

  • Quarterback Kaden Anderson: Returns as a sophomore after a 58.3% completion rate, 955 yards, 6:3 TD: INT ratio in nine games
  • Running back Sam Scott: Led team with 435 yards (4.7 average) in 10 games, returns for senior season
  • Receiver Jaylen Sargent: Team leader with 480 yards and 2 TDs, brings senior experience
  • Tight end John Michael Gyllenborg: 425 yards and 3 TDs, provides reliable target

The 2025 roster reveals strategic depth additions, particularly at positions that struggled in 2024. Multiple underclassmen at quarterback, running back, and wide receiver suggest increased competition and developmental potential.

The question remains whether this depth translates to on-field improvement or merely organizational depth.

The Schedule Gauntlet: Where Championships Are Won or Lost

Wyoming’s 2025 schedule will define Sawvel’s coaching identity in the first month.

The non-conference slate begins with road trips to Akron and Colorado, sandwiched around home games against Northern Iowa and Utah. This early-season stretch will likely determine whether Sawvel gets a third year or finds himself updating his resume.

The Utah Test

The Utah home game on September 13 represents everything. The Utes’ recent success makes this a measuring-stick game that could provide early validation or expose continued deficiencies. A competitive showing against Utah suggests Sawvel’s system is taking hold. A blowout loss raises questions about year-two development that won’t go away.

Conference play offers more realistic win opportunities:

  • Home games: UNLV, San Jose State, Colorado State, Nevada
  • Challenging road trips: San Diego State, Fresno State, Hawaii

The travel demands have historically tested Wyoming’s depth and conditioning, making every road game a potential trap.

The Philosophy Under Fire

Sawvel’s coaching philosophy centers on playing “harder, faster, smarter, and longer than our opponent.”

This approach worked when applied specifically to defense. Translating it to comprehensive program leadership represents his greatest challenge. The 0.531 hot seat rating suggests external observers remain skeptical about his ability to implement system-wide change.

The promotion of Aaron Bohl to defensive coordinator represents both continuity and risk. While Bohl’s four-year tenure as linebackers coach provides institutional knowledge, his lack of coordinator experience creates another variable in an already uncertain equation.

Sawvel’s ability to delegate defensive responsibilities while focusing on offensive development will determine whether Wyoming can effectively balance both phases.

The Defensive Coordinator Syndrome

Here’s the deeper concern surrounding Sawvel’s tenure: successful coordinators often struggle with the comprehensive demands of head coaching.

The Cowboys’ offensive struggles suggest Sawvel may have over-compensated in trying to maintain defensive standards while developing offensive competence. This split focus often leads to mediocrity in both phases, exactly what Wyoming cannot afford, given its resource limitations and competitive disadvantages.

Wyoming fans have been conditioned to expect defensive competence as a baseline. The fear is that Sawvel’s attempts to modernize the offense could undermine the defensive foundation that made Wyoming competitive during the Bohl era.

This balancing act becomes even more challenging when facing the immediate pressure of hot-seat speculation after just one season.

Hot Seat Mathematics: The Year Two Reality

A 0.531 hot seat rating after one season places Sawvel in precarious territory.

While Athletic Director Tom Burman typically doesn’t place first-year coaches on hot seat status, Sawvel’s rating suggests performance expectations that transcend normal grace periods. The mathematical reality is stark: significant improvement in year two isn’t just preferred, it’s essential.

Wyoming’s recent history suggests 6-7 wins represent the minimum threshold for continued confidence. Anything less than bowl eligibility would likely push Sawvel’s rating into genuinely dangerous territory, particularly if offensive struggles persist.

However, the counter-argument remains compelling:

  • Sawvel inherited a program transitioning from a beloved, long-tenured coach
  • The 2024 season could represent growing pains rather than fundamental incompetence
  • His defensive pedigree and institutional knowledge provide advantages external hires often lack

The 2025 Projection: Breakthrough or Breakdown?

Wyoming’s season will hinge on three critical factors.

Quarterback development: Anderson’s continued growth could unlock the offensive potential glimpsed in 2024’s victories. If he stagnates or regresses, the season could unravel quickly.

Defensive leadership emergence: Young defensive players must replace graduated leadership without sacrificing competitive intensity. This transition often takes a full season to solidify.

Special teams competence: New specialists must maintain the field position advantages that kept Wyoming competitive in close games. Poor special-teams play could turn close losses into blowouts.

The schedule provides realistic opportunities for 5-7 wins, which would represent meaningful progress while potentially falling short of bowl eligibility. However, this marginal improvement might not satisfy hot-seat concerns, particularly if losses continue to come in winnable games.

Sawvel’s coaching future depends on proving that Wyoming’s defensive identity can coexist with offensive competence.

The 2024 season showed flashes of this potential, but consistency remains the ultimate challenge. Whether he can synthesize these elements into sustained success will determine not only his job security but also Wyoming’s competitive trajectory in an increasingly challenging Mountain West landscape.

For a program caught between past success and future aspirations, the stakes couldn’t be higher.

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Nevada Football 2025 Season Preview: Jeff Choate’s Critical Second Year

Mark Haines on July 23, 2025

Jeff Choate’s honeymoon period as Nevada’s football coach is over.

After a brutal 3-10 debut season that included an embarrassing 0-7 conference record, Nevada’s second-year head coach enters 2025 with a hot seat rating of .451. This number screams one thing: urgency. With conventional wisdom granting coaches three years to show progress, 2025 becomes make-or-break time for both Choate and the Wolf Pack program.

The mathematics are simple and unforgiving. Nevada has stumbled through three consecutive 10-loss seasons, going 7-30 from 2022-24 in what represents the worst stretch in the program’s FBS history. Choate inherited a roster decimated by coaching turnover, but year two demands tangible improvement, not just moral victories and “cultural progress.”

The Painful Reality of Year One

Two stories emerged from Choate’s first season.

The encouraging narrative highlighted competitive losses to ranked opponents, SMU and Boise State, suggesting that the program had stopped the bleeding of complete blowouts that had plagued previous years. Nevada played a better brand of football but went 2-6 in one-possession games, including losses to top-10 teams.

The harsh reality revealed deeper problems:

  • Nevada’s 99 penalties tied for fifth-most nationally
  • The Wolf Pack accumulated 935 penalty yards, also fifth-most among FBS teams
  • These weren’t isolated incidents but a season-long pattern that cost Nevada winnable games against Georgia Southern, San Jose State, and Fresno State.

Even more concerning was the defensive collapse. The Wolf Pack allowed 391.5 yards per game and managed just 14 sacks—tied for the fourth fewest in the nation and the team’s least since having five in 2004.

Without a pass rush, opponents controlled games through methodical drives that Nevada’s penalty-prone defense couldn’t stop.

The Roster Revolution

Choate has essentially rebuilt Nevada from scratch.

He added 53 new players for 2025, effectively flipping roughly half the roster. This wasn’t subtle tinkering, but rather an acknowledgment that his initial roster construction had missed the mark.

“I think we made some mistakes last year because we hurried and we made it a point not to do that this year,” Choate admitted to Nevada Sports Net.

The coaching staff prioritized character and academic performance over flashy recruiting rankings:

  • They examined academic history as a predictor of work ethic
  • They evaluated family makeup and positive influences
  • They signed 30 high school players compared to just five the previous year
  • They emphasized Northern Nevada and Northern California recruits for better regional fits

This philosophical shift reflects hard-learned lessons about sustainable roster building versus quick-fix recruiting.

The Quarterback Conundrum

Brendon Lewis’s departure creates Nevada’s most pressing question mark.

Lewis accounted for 2,290 passing yards and 775 rushing yards, essentially functioning as the offense’s engine. His replacement likely comes from a group including Chubba Purdy, AJ Bianco, and newcomer Carter Jones, but none brings Lewis’s proven production.

The numbers tell a concerning story:

  • Purdy managed just 239 yards in seven games last season
  • Bianco totaled 173 yards in five appearances
  • Both showed flashes but lack the sample size to inspire confidence

The quarterback uncertainty ripples throughout an offense that already lost top receiver Jaden Smith (849 yards, 7 TDs) and leading rusher Savion Red (687 yards, 8 TDs).

Defensive Reconstruction

Nevada’s defensive makeover aims to address the unit’s glaring weaknesses.

The Wolf Pack added six transfers to the defensive backfield, addressing a secondary that consistently broke down in coverage. “That was a major priority,” Choate said of the defensive backs additions.

The coaching staff also restructured the defensive line room, combining edge rushers and interior linemen under one coordinator to improve communication and technique. This organizational change acknowledges that Nevada’s pass rush needs systematic improvement rather than personnel Band-Aids.

Special Teams Overhaul

Perhaps no area received more attention than special teams.

Nevada’s failures in crucial moments contributed to several losses throughout 2024. The Wolf Pack completely rebuilt the unit, adding multiple specialists and dedicating additional coaching resources.

This investment reflects Choate’s understanding that field position and execution in crucial moments separate winners from those who settle for moral victories.

The Schedule Reality Check

Nevada’s 2025 schedule presents both opportunities and dangers.

The season opener at Penn State represents a guaranteed loss against a College Football Playoff semifinalist. However, subsequent games offer hope:

  • Sacramento State (winnable home opener)
  • Middle Tennessee (balanced opponent at home)
  • Western Kentucky (road test but manageable)

The Mountain West slate includes crucial home games against San Diego State, Boise State, San Jose State, and UNLV. These provide chances to reverse last year’s conference shutout.

Road trips to Fresno State, New Mexico, Utah State, and Wyoming will test whether Nevada’s cultural changes translate to road toughness.

The Pressure Points

Several factors will determine whether Choate survives beyond 2025.

Conference Competitiveness: A 0-7 record in Mountain West play would likely seal Choate’s fate. The program needs at least 2-3 conference wins to demonstrate tangible progress.

Penalty Discipline: “I’ve never seen this before in my life,” Choate said about Nevada’s penalty problems during the 2024 season. If the Wolf Pack continues flagging itself out of games, it signals fundamental coaching failures.

Close Game Execution: Nevada lost multiple one-possession games through mental errors and poor situational execution. Converting just two of those losses into wins would dramatically alter perception.

Player Development: The roster overhaul only matters if newcomers improve throughout the season.

Stagnant development would indicate systemic problems beyond personnel.

What Success Looks Like

Realistic improvement for Nevada means 5-6 wins and 2-3 conference victories.

Bowl eligibility would represent a massive step forward, but even falling short while showing evident progress in penalties, defense, and close-game execution could buy Choate another year.

The hot seat rating of .451 leaves little room for moral victories. “I really feel like there’s a shift in our locker room,” Choate said, entering his second season, but shifts in locker rooms must translate to shifts in the win column.

The Deeper Reality

Choate’s situation embodies the modern paradox of college football.

Programs demand immediate results while acknowledging that sustainable success requires patience and development. Nevada’s administration and fan base understand the roster challenges Choate inherited, but hot seat ratings reflect results, not excuses.

The coach’s emphasis on character and culture suggests he’s building for long-term sustainability rather than quick fixes. However, this approach only works if accompanied by visible on-field improvement.

Too many college coaches have been fired while preaching the importance of culture and character development.

The Verdict

Jeff Choate has made logical moves to address Nevada’s 2024 weaknesses.

The roster overhaul targets specific problems, the coaching adjustments reflect honest self-assessment, and the recruiting philosophy emphasizes sustainable building rather than desperate transfers.

Whether these changes translate to wins remains uncertain:

  • Choate’s hot seat rating of .451 reflects legitimate concerns about his ability to develop competitive teams quickly enough
  • Year two will determine if he’s the right leader for Nevada’s rebuild
  • The margin for error has vanished

Choate’s process appears sound, but in college football, results matter more than methodology.

Nevada needs wins, not explanations, and 2025 will determine if Jeff Choate can deliver both.

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Spencer Danielson’s Coaching Performance: The 2025 Test That Will Define His Boise State Football Legacy

Mark Haines on July 23, 2025

Boise State Football’s Spencer Danielson walks into 2025 with a hot seat rating of 1.073 and zero pressure to save his job.

But here’s what nobody is talking about: this season represents the most brutal coaching evaluation of his career. Danielson must replace generational talent, navigate the program’s toughest schedule in years, and prove his 15-3 record wasn’t just a result of good fortune with elite players.

The numbers from 2024 paint a picture that should terrify any coach facing similar circumstances. Ashton Jeanty rushed for 2,601 yards and 29 touchdowns while finishing as Heisman Trophy runner-up. The offense averaged 37.3 points per game, ranking fifth nationally. The defense generated 55 sacks, ranking first in the nation.

Now all of that production walks out the door.

The Coaching Metrics That Reveal Everything

Danielson’s 83.3% winning percentage trails only Chris Petersen’s legendary 88.5% mark in program history.

But the context matters more than the percentage. Petersen inherited established systems and built gradually. Danielson took over a 5-5 team mid-season and immediately produced three consecutive victories, becoming the first interim head coach in FBS history to win a conference championship game.

This accomplishment required:

  • Instant roster evaluation under maximum pressure
  • Scheme adjustment with zero preparation time
  • Leadership establishment during program crisis
  • Game planning against opponents who had months to prepare

Most coaches fail catastrophically in these circumstances. Danielson thrived.

The Offensive Coaching Evolution Nobody Saw Coming

Here’s where Danielson’s coaching performance gets interesting.

Defensive coordinators typically produce conservative offensive philosophies. They focus on ball control, field position, and avoiding mistakes. Danielson shattered this stereotype completely.

Boise State averaged 466 total yards per game in 2024 with 225.6 passing yards complementing the rushing dominance. The coaching staff built schemes around Jeanty’s unique skill set while maintaining balanced attack principles that stressed defenses horizontally and vertically.

This dual-threat capability required sophisticated play calling and personnel management that many defensive-minded coaches struggle to implement. Danielson mastered it in one season.

The 2025 Replacement Challenge That Exposes Everything

Losing Jeanty forces Danielson to completely reconstruct offensive identity around a committee approach.

The numbers are stark:

  • Jambres Dubar: 99 rushing yards in 2024
  • Dylan Riley: 135 rushing yards
  • Sire Gaines: 156 rushing yards in limited action

Combined, these three players produced fewer yards than Jeanty averaged every four games. This isn’t a depth chart adjustment. This is offensive philosophy reconstruction from the ground up.

Danielson’s coaching response centers on scheme diversification rather than finding a single replacement. Smart coaches understand that personnel limitations necessitate tactical innovation, not rigid adherence to a system.

Defensive Coaching Performance: Strengths and Glaring Weaknesses

The 2024 defense generated 111 tackles for loss, ranking third nationally.

But the pass defense allowed 241.4 yards per game, with road performance deteriorating to 276.2 yards per game. The graduation of four senior defensive backs exposes potential coaching failures in depth development or recruiting evaluation.

Danielson’s response involved adding six transfers, including:

  • Demetrius Freeney from Arizona
  • Jeremiah Earby from California
  • Four additional players bringing multiple years of experience

This transfer portal activity suggests recognition of internal development shortcomings. Good coaches adapt when internal systems fail.

The Penalty Pattern That Reveals In-Game Management Problems

Boise State averaged 46.2 penalty yards per game but spiked to 70 yards per game in their two losses.

This 51% increase in penalties during defeats suggests a coaching struggle in maintaining discipline under pressure. Elite opponents exposed composure deficiencies that better preparation should have prevented.

Successful coaches drill situational awareness until it becomes instinct. Danielson’s penalty patterns indicate this drilling was insufficient against superior competition.

Roster Management Coaching in the Transfer Portal Era

Danielson retained 13 players who were “illegally recruited” by other programs during the 2024 season.

“I know for sure of 13 that are getting illegally recruited to get in the portal and get paid all this and that,” Danielson revealed. Yet zero players transferred during the season.

This retention success required:

  • Individual counseling with players and families
  • Future planning that extended beyond single seasons
  • Authentic relationship building rather than transactional interactions
  • Counter-messaging against external recruiting pressure

Most coaches lose multiple players to this pressure. Danielson lost none.

The Schedule Management Test That Changes Everything

The road trip to Notre Dame on October 4 presents the highest-profile coaching challenge in recent program history.

Danielson must prepare his team for hostile environment, superior talent, and national television pressure while managing a roster with limited big-game experience. The Mountain West road games at Air Force, Nevada, and Utah State require constant adjustments.

Home versus road performance reveals coaching adaptation challenges. Boise State went 7-0 at home, averaging 491.4 yards and 41.7 points per game. Road statistics were significantly lower.

This 50-yard difference in offensive production indicates coaching struggles with environmental adaptation.

Special Teams Coaching: The Immediate Performance Concern

Kicker Jonah Dalmas (100% on extra points, 72.2% on field goals) and punter James Ferguson-Reynolds (43.5 yards per punt) both graduated.

Danielson’s coaching response emphasizes “coverage and return units” while new specialists develop. This suggests pragmatic acceptance that immediate replacement is unrealistic.

Special teams failures often determine the outcome of close games. Danielson’s coaching record includes no evidence of successfully developing specialists from inexperienced players.

The Faith-Based Leadership That Creates Recruiting Advantages and Limitations

“I give Jesus all the glory. I know that’s the only reason that I’m here. I’m so thankful that He put me in this seat,” Danielson stated after victories.

This authentic leadership resonates with specific recruitment demographics but may limit its appeal in an increasingly diverse roster construction. Coaching performance must strike a balance between personal authenticity and inclusive team building.

The team’s record GPA in Fall 2024 demonstrates that Danielson’s emphasis on comprehensive player development yields measurable academic results that extend beyond the football field.

Contract Extension: Institutional Confidence with Performance Pressure

The five-year deal, which runs through 2029 and averages $2.2 million annually, represents a significant investment.

“Spencer has proven to be the right leader at the right time for Boise State football and our university as a whole,” Athletic Director Jeramiah Dickey declared.

However, this confidence was earned during an exceptional season with elite talent that may not be repeatable. Contract security creates both comfort and heightened expectations for sustained performance.

The 2025 Evaluation That Determines Everything

Success in 2025 would establish Danielson among elite Group of Five coaches and validate his systematic approach to program building.

Failure would raise questions about whether his early success was due to circumstances rather than coaching excellence. The hot seat rating of 1.073 provides current security, but coaching performance is evaluated continuously.

Danielson’s coaching performance evaluation must account for the fundamental transformation of college football during his tenure. The transfer portal, NIL compensation, and conference realignment create coaching challenges that previous generations never faced.

His adaptation to these changes, while maintaining competitive performance, indicates a coaching evolution that many veteran coaches have struggled to achieve.

The 2025 season represents the definitive measurement of Danielson’s long-term coaching capabilities.

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The Ken Niumatalolo Red Flags Everyone at San Jose State Is Ignoring

Mark Haines on July 22, 2025

Ken Niumatalolo’s first season at San Jose State fooled everyone.

The surface stats scream success: 7-6 record, bowl game, signature wins over Stanford and Oregon State, college football’s first unanimous All-American receiver in program history. Sports media ate it up. Fans bought the hype. Even his hot seat rating of 1.221 suggests he’s exceeding expectations.

But here’s what nobody wants to tell you: this “success story” is built on a foundation of statistical smoke and mirrors.

The Numbers Don’t Lie (Even When Everyone Else Does)

College football fans suffer from chronic outcome bias.

They see seven wins and assume progress is linear. They watch highlights and project optimism. They read feel-good stories about “culture” and “authenticity” without examining what actually happened on the field.

Our analysis shows an entirely different story:

  • San Jose State averaged 321.8 passing yards per game
  • They managed just 88.1 rushing yards per game
  • That’s a nearly 4:1 pass-to-run ratio that borders on offensive malpractice
  • The ground game produced 3.9 yards per carry with only 13 rushing touchdowns
  • Turnover margin was exactly neutral: 2.2 per game both ways

Here’s the most damning evidence: Six games were decided by eight points or fewer, and San Jose State went 2-4 in those contests.

Championship-caliber coaching shows up in close games.

The Navy Pattern Everyone Ignores

Niumatalolo’s Navy tenure reveals everything you need to know about his coaching ceiling.

Yes, he won 109 games in 15 seasons. Yes, that’s a .568 winning percentage. But here’s what the highlight reels don’t show you:

  • Navy went 11-23 over his final three seasons (2020-2022)
  • They had consecutive 4-8 campaigns that got him fired
  • In 2022, Navy averaged 21.9 points per game (106th nationally)
  • They managed just 326.8 total yards per game (111th)

The pattern is obvious: rigid coaching disguised as philosophical consistency.

When Navy had superior athletes within its triple-option scheme, it produced 11-win seasons in 2015 and 2019. When recruiting advantages eroded and the scheme became predictable, the program collapsed.

Sound familiar?

The False Narrative of “Seamless Transition”

Everyone loves the story about Niumatalolo adapting from Navy’s triple-option to San Jose State’s spread offense.

It makes for great copy. It suggests coaching versatility. It feeds the narrative that great coaches can succeed anywhere with any system.

Here’s the truth: San Jose State’s offensive “success” came from exactly two players.

Nick Nash and Justin Lockhart combined for:

  • 2,365 receiving yards
  • 21 touchdowns
  • 157 total receptions

In a passing offense that totaled 4,183 yards and 31 touchdowns, two receivers accounted for 57% of the yards and 68% of the scores.

That’s not systematic offensive innovation—that’s dangerous over-reliance on elite individual talent.

The 2025 Reality Check Nobody Wants to Face

Nash and Lockhart are gone.

The returning receiving corps includes Matthew Coleman (401 yards, two touchdowns), Cooper Hoch, and Roy Gardner. Combined, they had fewer than 500 yards in 2024.

But listen to Niumatalolo’s recent comments to 247Sports: “We actually feel like we’re deeper as a group, receiver wise, from top to bottom, because we were able to go to recruit to what we what we’re looking for.”

This statement either reveals deliberate misrepresentation or genuine delusion about roster construction.

Meanwhile, the 2025 schedule includes:

  • Texas (in Austin)
  • Stanford
  • Multiple Mountain West contenders
  • Teams with superior depth and coaching

The expectations game is about to get very real.

Why “Culture” Can’t Save Bad Football

Niumatalolo’s messaging focuses heavily on intangibles.

“Our culture has been our biggest sell,” he told HERO Sports. “It hasn’t been NIL money or revenue sharing or any of that. It’s been guys have come to our practices and they’ve felt that it’s different here.”

This rhetoric frames resource limitations as philosophical choices while avoiding accountability for on-field results.

Here’s what nobody talks about: fans and media love stories about culture and authenticity because they provide emotional cover for tactical deficiencies.

But culture doesn’t block defensive ends or throw touchdown passes.

The Coaching Tree Red Flag

Want to know if a coach can develop talent and systems?

Look at their coaching tree. Niumatalolo’s primary pupils include Naval Academy defensive coordinator Brian Newberry (who replaced him and immediately struggled) and various position coaches who never advanced to prominent roles.

Even more concerning: Niumatalolo spent 2023 at UCLA as “director of leadership“—essentially a sabbatical to study modern college football elements, such as NIL and transfer portal management.

A 15-year head coach required remedial education in contemporary recruiting methods.

And he chose to learn from UCLA—a program hardly known for elite NIL or transfer portal management.

That should terrify San Jose State fans.

What to Watch in 2025 (The Real Indicators)

Forget overall record when evaluating Niumatalolo’s coaching in 2025.

These indicators matter more:

  • Close game execution: Can they finally win when it matters?
  • Running game development: Does the ground attack show systematic improvement?
  • Production distribution: Can the offense succeed without elite individual talent?
  • Late-game decision making: Do they make wise choices in crucial moments?

The analytical evidence suggests 2025 will expose the gap between perception and reality.

The Bottom Line Truth

Ken Niumatalolo’s 2024 performance represents competent but not exceptional coaching masked by favorable individual circumstances.

His hot seat rating of 1.221 reflects lowered expectations rather than coaching brilliance. The receiver production gap, schedule difficulty, and historical patterns of inflexibility all point toward performance regression.

For San Jose State, the expectations game is about to end.

2025 will reveal whether this coaching hire represents genuine program elevation or just another example of how college football narratives mislead those who mistake correlation for causation in coaching evaluation.

The brutal reality is simple: coaching greatness reveals itself through adversity, not comfort.

And adversity is coming.

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Colorado State 2025 Football Season Preview: Jay Norvell’s Critical Fourth Year

Mark Haines on July 22, 2025

Jay Norvell’s fourth season at Colorado State might be his most important yet.

With an 8-5 record and bowl appearance providing foundation credibility, the head coach faces meaningful pressure to demonstrate that three years of steady building can translate into Mountain West championship contention. His hot seat rating of .987 indicates he’s meeting expectations and not on the hot seat, but 2025 will test whether the program can finally break through to elite conference status.

The stakes couldn’t be higher as Colorado State prepares for its final Mountain West season before joining the Pac-12 in 2026.

The Three-Year Evolution: From Rebuilding to Contending

The trajectory of Norvell’s tenure tells a compelling story of program transformation.

His debut 2022 season was brutal but necessary. Going 3-9 while starting three different quarterbacks (all freshmen or redshirt freshmen) and facing a schedule that included a College Football Playoff semifinalist, Michigan, would have broken lesser coaches. Instead, Norvell’s team showed unmistakable improvement, jumping from 247.3 yards of offense in the first half to 324.1 in the second half.

2023 brought heartbreak disguised as progress:

  • A program-first victory over Boise State after a last-second Hail Mary
  • CSU scoring 21 points in the final 4:02 to stun the Broncos
  • Three losses after leading or tied with less than a minute remaining
  • Missing bowl eligibility by the narrowest of margins

Then came 2024’s breakthrough: 8-5 overall, 6-1 in Mountain West play, and a return to bowl games for the first time since 2017.

The Arizona Bowl loss to Miami (OH) stung, but the foundation was undeniably in place.

Coaching Performance Under the Microscope

Norvell’s coaching staff deserves significant credit for maximizing available talent while building sustainable infrastructure.

The 2024 statistical profile reveals a program operating within historical Colorado State norms across most categories. The offense averaged 24.4 points and 387.6 yards per game, while the defense yielded 25.8 points per game. More importantly, the efficiency splits told the real story of coaching effectiveness.

In wins, Colorado State dominated through identity:

  • 32.7 points per game
  • 191.6 rushing yards per game
  • Positive turnover margin (+0.8)
  • Balanced offensive attack

In losses, the coaching challenges became apparent:

  • Just 12.2 points per game
  • 130.6 rushing yards per game
  • Negative turnover margin (-1.4)
  • Over-reliance on passing out of necessity

The 6-1 Mountain West record, including victories over Wyoming, Air Force, and Nevada, proved the coaching staff could prepare teams for conference competition.

But game management issues persisted throughout the season.

The Recruiting Revolution That Changed Everything

One area where Norvell’s coaching excellence shines brightest is recruiting and roster construction.

His recruiting philosophy centers on establishing CSU as “WRU” through his prolific air-raid offense. This approach has yielded remarkable results, with talented wide receivers choosing Colorado State over Power 5 programs. The 2024 recruiting class was ranked first in the Mountain West by 247Sports and fifth overall among Group of Five programs.

The transfer portal strategy has been equally masterful:

  • Brought quarterback Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi from Nevada
  • Added running back Avery Morrow, who rushed for 1,006 yards in 2024
  • Secured multiple defensive contributors
  • Created immediate competitive impact

However, recent portal losses highlight the double-edged nature of modern roster management.

CSU lost linebacker Chase Wilson to West Virginia, edge rusher Gabe Kirschke to Wake Forest, and top receivers Jamari Person and Caleb Goodie. The coaching staff’s ability to develop replacements will significantly impact the success of 2025.

Strategic Adjustments for the Championship Push

Norvell has made decisive moves to address the most glaring weaknesses of the 2024 season.

The biggest change comes on defense, where Norvell announced the departure of defensive coordinator Freddie Banks. Linebacker coach Adam Pilapil will serve as defensive play caller, representing both opportunity and risk. With nine of eleven defensive starters either graduating or transferring, this unit requires complete reconstruction.

Offensive continuity provides stability:

  • Quarterback Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi returns for his junior season
  • Running backs Justin Marshall and Keegan Holles take over the backfield
  • Multiple proven receivers remain despite key departures
  • Offensive line depth has been strengthened through recruiting

Staff promotions signal continued offensive innovation:

  • Matt Mumme elevated to Pass-Game Coordinator
  • Bill Best promoted to Run-Game Coordinator
  • Chase Holbrook promoted to Quarterbacks Coach
  • Mike Goff added as assistant offensive line coach

These moves suggest that Norvell understands the formula that works, while also addressing areas that need improvement.

The 2025 Schedule: Opportunity Meets Challenge

The upcoming schedule presents both validation opportunities and significant obstacles.

The season opener at Washington immediately measures progress against Pac-12 competition. This game could set the tone for the entire campaign, providing early indication of whether Colorado State can compete at its future conference level.

Key Mountain West home games offer momentum-building chances:

  • Washington State visits Fort Collins
  • Fresno State comes to town
  • Air Force provides rivalry intensity
  • Hawaii offers winnable conference points

Road challenges will likely determine championship aspirations:

  • San Diego State has traditionally been problematic
  • Boise State remains the conference’s gold standard
  • Wyoming provides Border War intensity

Norvell’s coaching staff must prove they can execute consistently away from Fort Collins, where the 2024 team struggled at 2-4 in road and neutral games.

The Three Critical Areas Demanding Improvement

Improving the pass defense isn’t optional for championship contention.

Allowing 234.7 passing yards per game in 2024 represented a fatal flaw against quality opponents. The coaching staff’s ability to develop young defensive backs and implement effective schemes against spread offenses will directly determine conference title hopes. Transfer additions aim to provide immediate help, but development of existing talent remains crucial.

Game management and discipline require immediate attention:

  • 6.5 penalties per game cost valuable field position
  • Negative turnover margin (-0.1) decided close games
  • Penalty issues spiked to 8.6 per game in losses

Situational coaching needs refinement across multiple areas:

  • 63% red zone touchdown rate fell below FBS average
  • Short-yardage conversion rate was inconsistent
  • Late-game execution failed in crucial moments

The coaching staff has implemented penalty tracking systems and leadership workshops specifically designed to address these concerns.

Historical Context and Championship Expectations

Norvell’s overall FBS record of 49-47 (.510) includes a 16-21 (.432) mark through his first three Colorado State seasons (3-9 in 2022, 5-7 in 2023, 8-5 in 2024).

But his Nevada tenure provides the blueprint for sustained success. From 2017-2021, Norvell went 33-26 with the Wolf Pack, making four bowl games and posting winning records in his final four seasons. He developed two-time Mountain West Offensive Player of the Year Carson Strong and proved he could build consistent conference contenders.

The 2024 statistical performance aligned with historical Colorado State averages, indicating that the program has returned to its baseline competitiveness. However, Norvell’s mandate involves exceeding historical norms, not merely matching them.

Championship expectations are now realistic rather than aspirational.

The Bottom Line: Everything Points to a Breakthrough Season

Jay Norvell enters 2025 with every tool necessary for championship contention.

The coaching foundation has been meticulously constructed through three seasons of strategic building. Offensive continuity provides stability, while defensive changes offer upside potential. Recruiting momentum continues to build toward the Pac-12 transition, and schedule opportunities exist for significant wins.

Success requires the coaching staff to prove several critical capabilities:

  • Developing young defensive talent quickly
  • Maintaining offensive efficiency despite receiver departures
  • Implementing defensive improvements that address glaring weaknesses
  • Managing games better in crucial moments

The groundwork has been laid through patient, intelligent program building.

Now comes the ultimate test of whether that foundation can support championship-level performance when everything is on the line.

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San Diego State Football 2025: Will the AztecFAST Attack Finally Deliver?

Mark Haines on July 18, 2025

San Diego State Football’s Sean Lewis enters year two with everything on the line.

The 2025 season represents a make-or-break moment for San Diego State football. After a disappointing 3-9 debut campaign, Lewis faces mounting pressure to prove his AztecFAST attack can translate innovative concepts into actual wins. With significant roster turnover at quarterback and a challenging schedule ahead, this season will determine whether the program advances or regresses.

The margin for error has disappeared completely.

The Danny O’Neil Departure Changes Everything

Danny O’Neil’s transfer to Wisconsin in December sent shockwaves through the program.

The first true freshman starting quarterback in San Diego State’s Division I history, O’Neil showed genuine promise despite the team’s struggles. He threw for 2,181 yards, 12 touchdowns, and six interceptions while battling injuries throughout the season. His departure wasn’t about football performance.

“That’s a big thing to me, being able to play in front of family,” O’Neil explained. “I wouldn’t say I was homesick. I just want to be able to have some relatives be able to come see me at games.”

The loss creates massive uncertainty at the position that matters most.

Four Quarterbacks, One Starting Job

Lewis responded aggressively to O’Neil’s departure by completely rebuilding the quarterback room.

The competition features an intriguing mix of experience and potential:

  • Jayden Denegal (Michigan transfer): 6-foot-5, 235 pounds, spent three seasons backing up J.J. McCarthy
  • Bert Emanuel Jr. (Central Michigan transfer): 6-foot-3, 235 pounds, son of former NFL player, dynamic runner
  • Kyle Crum (returning junior): Only familiar face, completed 5 of 17 passes in limited action
  • JP Mialovski (true freshman): Early enrollee from Long Beach, threw for 4,365 yards in high school

Denegal brings the most traditional quarterback skills to the competition.

“The biggest thing I could say is, in my opinion, he has one of the greatest one-play mindsets out there,” Denegal said of McCarthy. “He doesn’t really care. Last play isn’t going to affect his next play. That part of his game is something that I admire.” Former Michigan coach Jim Harbaugh praised Denegal, saying he “throws the ball extremely well” and is “pretty darn athletic.”

Emanuel Jr. offers a completely different dimension with his rushing ability.

The Houston native has carried 145 times for 844 yards and 12 touchdowns during his Central Michigan career. “Bert’s ability to run… That’s where he is at his strongest. I’m very excited to see us in a situation where we get to some of the quarterback run-game stuff,” said quarterbacks coach Chris Johnson.

The winner will inherit an offense desperate for stability.

Two Defensive Stars Anchor the Foundation

While the offense undergoes massive reconstruction, the defense returns elite-level talent.

Edge rusher Trey White recorded 12.5 sacks and ranked fifth nationally despite playing on a struggling team. Linebacker Tano Letuli led the Aztecs with 70 tackles and brings veteran leadership to a unit that needs dramatic improvement.

Both players stayed committed despite transfer portal opportunities.

“They are loyal to the soil and they are loyal to the work they’ve done and put in,” Lewis said. “They’re committed to that locker room. They’re not interested in winning only when it’s convenient here at San Diego State.”

The secondary also shows promise with cornerback Chris Johnson expected to emerge as one of the Mountain West’s top cover men. Safety tandem Eric Butler and Dalesean Staley brings experience to a unit that recorded just one interception in 2024.

These defensive anchors must carry increased responsibility in 2025.

The Post-Marquez Cooper Offensive Challenge

Losing 1,274-yard rusher Marquez Cooper creates another massive hole in the offensive foundation.

Cooper’s production represented nearly the entire rushing attack in 2024. No other running back exceeded 100 yards or scored a rushing touchdown. The receiving corps returns its top three targets, but none eclipsed 700 yards receiving.

Lewis acknowledged the challenge while expressing confidence in the depth chart.

“Obviously he is a bell cow, in terms of yards and the production that he had,” Lewis said of Cooper. “But Cam Davis and Lucky Sutton did a great job of developing. They’re going to have an opportunity through winter condition and spring ball to cement themselves as the guy.”

The offensive line faces a reconstruction project following the medical retirement of center Brayden Bryant.

Schedule Provides Both Opportunity and Danger

The 2025 schedule features a mix of winnable games and potential disasters.

Early-season matchups could set the tone for the entire campaign:

  • August 28 vs. Stony Brook: Season opener at Snapdragon Stadium should build confidence
  • September 6 at Washington State: First real test on the road in Pullman
  • September 20 vs. California: Chance to make a statement against a former Pac-12 program
  • September 27 at Northern Illinois: Dangerous road trip to DeKalb

The Mountain West slate includes challenging road games at Nevada, Fresno State, and New Mexico.

Lewis noted his team’s close losses in 2024 as a reason for optimism.

At Mountain West Media Days, he emphasized that “multiple one-possession games. Three games were lost by 9 points total.” Those narrow margins suggest minor improvements could translate to several additional wins.

The schedule could create early momentum or early disaster.

The Navy SEAL Philosophy

Lewis has implemented an unconventional team-building approach involving Navy SEAL training sessions.

The philosophy centers on “hard things done together in a beautiful environment” with sessions conducted at Coronado Beach. Lewis conducted “three different iterations of exercises and again in micro teams and position groups and offense, defense, different challenges” during winter conditioning.

This unique approach reflects Lewis’s belief that mental toughness will separate his program.

Pressure Mounts on Sean Lewis

With a hot seat rating of 0.531, Lewis enters a pivotal second season.

While his position isn’t immediately threatened, another disappointing campaign could change the dynamic quickly. The transfer portal era demands faster results than traditional coaching timelines allowed.

Lewis’s track record at Kent State provides reasons for optimism.

He transformed the Golden Flashes from a perennial bottom-feeder into a MAC contender, posting more seven-win seasons than the program achieved in the previous 30 years combined. His innovative offensive concepts garnered national attention before his stint in Colorado.

But San Diego State fans won’t accept another three-win season.

The Verdict: Everything Depends on the Quarterback

The 2025 season will be defined by whoever wins the quarterback competition.

The defense returns enough talent to compete in the Mountain West if the offense can generate consistent production. The schedule features winnable early games that can help build momentum for conference play.

Lewis faces a simple reality: college football patience has shortened dramatically.

The foundation exists for improvement with defensive stars White and Letuli, an improved offensive line, and depth in the running back room. The receiving corps brings system familiarity despite lacking star power.

Success requires solving the quarterback puzzle and finding the right balance between tempo and efficiency.

If Lewis can generate consistent offensive production, the Aztecs have the defensive talent to compete for a bowl berth. If the quarterback situation remains unsettled, another long season awaits.

The AztecFAST attack gets one more chance to prove its effectiveness.

The Next Billion Dollar Game

College football isn’t just a sport anymore—it’s a high-stakes market where information asymmetry separates winners from losers. While the average fan sees only what happens between the sidelines, real insiders trade on the hidden dynamics reshaping programs from the inside out.

Our team has embedded with the power brokers who run this game. From the coaching carousel to NIL deals to transfer portal strategies, we’ve mapped the entire ecosystem with the kind of obsessive detail that would make a hedge fund analyst blush.

Why subscribe? Because in markets this inefficient, information creates alpha. Our subscribers knew which coaches were dead men walking months before the mainstream media caught on. They understood which programs were quietly transforming their recruiting apparatuses while competitors slept.

The smart money is already positioning for 2025. Are you?

Click below—it’s free—and join the small group of people who understand the real value of college football’s new economy.

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Hawaii Football 2025: Can Culture Finally Create Wins?

Mark Haines on July 18, 2025

Hawaii football’s Timmy Chang has mastered everything about coaching except the one thing that matters most.

The Hawaii head coach has:

  • Rebuilt the “Braddahhood” culture that defines Rainbow Warrior football
  • Earned widespread community support despite a 13-25 record
  • Secured a contract extension through 2026
  • Developed genuine player loyalty and retention

But he still can’t consistently win games.

The Cultural Champion’s Impossible Test

Chang’s hot seat rating sits at .441, technically placing him in danger territory among college football coaches.

Yet this number tells only half the story.

In Hawaii, Chang isn’t just popular—he’s beloved. His successful restoration of the “Braddahhood” has created something previous coaches couldn’t: an authentic connection between team, community, and culture.

“Coach Chang has established a foundation of Warrior culture that our football program needed when he came home three years ago,” acting Athletics Director Lois Manin said when announcing Chang’s contract extension.

The challenge heading into 2025? Proving that cultural leadership can translate into the wins that have remained stubbornly elusive.

The Alejado Revolution Changes Everything

One player could transform Hawaii’s entire trajectory.

Redshirt freshman Micah Alejado took over at quarterback following Brayden Schager’s departure, and his debut was nothing short of spectacular. In his first full collegiate start against New Mexico, the left-handed signal-caller threw for 469 yards and five touchdowns with zero interceptions.

The numbers were historic:

  • 37 of 57 completions
  • 523 total yards of offense (second-most in FBS in 2024)
  • First Hawaii QB ever with 450+ passing yards and 50+ rushing in same game
  • No interceptions since junior year of high school

“He’s a student of the game,” quarterbacks coach Chad Kapanui said. “He’s always watching film, trying to dissect something, finding something in the defense. He thinks like a coach.”

Alejado’s precision could solve Hawaii’s biggest offensive problem: turnovers.

Defense Returns With Veteran Leadership

The Rainbow Warriors’ defense enters 2025 with something they’ve lacked in recent years: continuity.

All six of Hawaii’s leading tacklers from 2024 return, including:

  • Linebacker Jamih Otis (55 tackles, 5 TFL)
  • Safety Peter Manuma (43 tackles, 3 pass breakups)
  • Defensive end Elijah Robinson (5 sacks, 10.5 TFL)
  • Safety Elijah Palmer (key secondary contributor)
  • Linebacker Logan Taylor (52 tackles)

“It all starts with a loaded linebacking corps that could be among the Rainbow Warriors’ best in a long, long time,” College Football News noted.

This experience could finally provide the defensive stability Chang’s teams have needed.

The Schedule Sets Up For Success

Hawaii’s 2025 slate offers genuine opportunities for improvement.

The season opens with high-profile tests that could establish early momentum:

  • August 23 vs Stanford (CBS, 1:30 p.m.) – Winnable statement game against rebuilding Cardinal
  • August 30 at Arizona (TNT, 4:30 p.m.) – Road test against Big 12 opponent
  • September 6 vs Sam Houston – Home advantage against FBS newcomer
  • September 13 vs Portland State – FCS opponent should be victory

The key stretch comes with three straight home games to open conference play, Hawaii’s longest homestand since 2015.

Road games at Colorado State, San Jose State, and UNLV will test improved depth and mental toughness.

The Numbers Tell A Story of Realistic Hope

Vegas expects modest improvement but not a breakthrough.

Current betting markets show:

  • Season win total: 5.5 games
  • Over 5.5 wins: -150 odds
  • Under 5.5 wins: +125 odds
  • Mountain West title odds: +2000

These numbers reflect cautious optimism about Hawaii’s trajectory while acknowledging competitive Mountain West challenges.

The betting market’s slight lean toward the Over suggests growing confidence in Chang’s program direction.

Three Keys That Will Determine Everything

Chang’s 2025 success hinges on addressing specific areas that killed previous seasons.

Turnover Margin Must Improve Hawaii’s -8 turnover differential in 2024 directly cost them winnable games. Alejado’s ball security and defensive takeaway ability will determine competitive balance in close contests.

Third Down Efficiency Cannot Stay Broken
Converting just 37% of third downs made Hawaii’s run-and-shoot offense predictable in crucial moments. Alejado’s quick decision-making could unlock this critical area.

Penalty Discipline Decides Close Games Hawaii went 0-4 when flagged ten or more times in 2024. Championship teams win the hidden yardage battle that determines field position and momentum.

The Ultimate Question: Culture vs Competition

Chang finds himself in college football’s most unique situation.

He’s a coach beloved for cultural restoration yet scrutinized for competitive results. His popularity provides insulation from typical hot seat pressures, but Hawaii’s passionate fanbase ultimately expects their cultural champion to deliver wins that validate their faith.

“This Mountain West Conference is a great conference, and the teams go in and battle day in and day out. Last year, we’re so close to winning some of these games,” Chang recently told VSiN. “The off season, since January, just the mindset moving forward is where do we close the gap in those one to two plays a game that really make the difference?”

Those one to two plays represent everything.

The Realistic Path to Breakthrough

Hawaii’s ceiling appears to be 6-7 wins if everything breaks favorably.

Their floor remains 4-5 wins if quarterback play regresses or injuries impact key positions. For Chang and the program, reaching 6 wins and bowl eligibility would represent significant progress and likely secure his position moving forward.

The most probable scenario? Hawaii finishes 5-6 or 6-6, showing enough improvement to justify continued faith in Chang’s cultural leadership while creating momentum for 2026.

What This Season Really Means

2025 will answer college football’s most compelling cultural question.

Can a coach survive and thrive solely on cultural impact, or must wins eventually validate community support? Chang has successfully rebuilt Hawaii’s identity, earned genuine loyalty, and created a sustainable program culture.

Now comes the ultimate test: proving that cultural restoration was the necessary foundation for competitive success, not merely a consolation prize.

Hawaii football in 2025 embodies a program at its most critical juncture, where beloved leadership must finally evolve into competitive achievement. With Alejado’s emergence providing hope and the community’s patience wearing thin despite their affection for their coach, this season will define whether the “Braddahhood” can finally produce the wins that have remained tantalizingly out of reach.

The answer will determine everything.

The Next Billion Dollar Game

College football isn’t just a sport anymore—it’s a high-stakes market where information asymmetry separates winners from losers. While the average fan sees only what happens between the sidelines, real insiders trade on the hidden dynamics reshaping programs from the inside out.

Our team has embedded with the power brokers who run this game. From the coaching carousel to NIL deals to transfer portal strategies, we’ve mapped the entire ecosystem with the kind of obsessive detail that would make a hedge fund analyst blush.

Why subscribe? Because in markets this inefficient, information creates alpha. Our subscribers knew which coaches were dead men walking months before the mainstream media caught on. They understood which programs were quietly transforming their recruiting apparatuses while competitors slept.

The smart money is already positioning for 2025. Are you?

Click below—it’s free—and join the small group of people who understand the real value of college football’s new economy.

Free Subscription
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Georgia Football 2025: The Year Everything Must Come Together

Mark Haines on July 9, 2025

Georgia football stands at the most critical crossroads in the Kirby Smart era.

After an 11-3 season that included an SEC Championship but ended with crushing disappointment against Notre Dame in the Sugar Bowl, the Bulldogs face a familiar question: Can they reload fast enough to compete for another national title?

The answer isn’t as simple as pointing to their second-ranked recruiting class or their elite defensive continuity. This is about execution under pressure. This is about proving that championship windows don’t close just because star players leave for the NFL.

For Georgia, 2025 represents the ultimate test of program sustainability.

The Quarterback Question That Changes Everything

Gunner Stockton holds the keys to Georgia’s entire championship hopes.

The redshirt junior from Tiger, Georgia, isn’t just replacing Carson Beck. He’s stepping into the most pressure-packed position in college football at a program where anything less than playoff contention equals disappointment.

But here’s what most people miss about Stockton’s situation: He’s not walking into this blind.

His limited 2024 action tells a story of readiness:

  • 67.8% completion percentage
  • 939 passing yards with 9 touchdowns, 2 interceptions
  • 10.4 yards per attempt (explosive play capability)
  • 4 rushing touchdowns (dual-threat ability)
  • Clutch performance in SEC Championship overtime win vs Texas

“Recent Georgia football history indicates that Gunner Stockton will be successful in 2025 as the starter,” according to Sports Illustrated’s analysis of Smart’s track record with first-year starters.

The evidence supports this optimism. Jake Fromm, Stetson Bennett, and Carson Beck all found immediate success in their first seasons as full-time starters under Smart. The system works because Smart builds it around his quarterbacks’ strengths, not against them.

Behind Stockton, the depth chart features genuine promise. Redshirt freshman Ryan Puglisi would have been next in line during the Texas game, bringing four-star credentials and unwavering program loyalty. The 2025 class adds Ryan Montgomery and Hezekiah Millender, creating long-term stability at the position.

Elite Recruiting Meets Championship Pressure

Georgia’s 2025 recruiting class ranks second nationally for a reason.

With 28 commitments and an 82% blue-chip ratio, this isn’t just talent acquisition. This is championship-level roster construction designed to maintain elite standards while replacing NFL-bound stars.

The cornerstone is five-star defensive tackle Elijah Griffin, who becomes the first No. 1-ranked DT prospect to sign with Georgia during the Smart era. This isn’t just a recruiting win. This statement suggests that Georgia can still attract the nation’s top players despite recent setbacks.

The numbers tell the story of sustained excellence:

  • 4 five-star prospects
  • 17 ESPN 300 players
  • 25 of 28 signees enrolling early
  • Top-10 classes in three consecutive years

Five-star wide receiver Talyn Taylor and defensive tackle Isaiah Gibson provide immediate impact potential. But the real value lies in the depth across all position groups, ensuring that NFL departures don’t create fatal gaps in the roster.

“Georgia’s 2025 recruiting class ranks in the top 10 nationally,” ESPN reported, highlighting the program’s ability to continue attracting elite talent despite Sugar Bowl disappointment.

The Defensive Foundation That Never Breaks

Georgia’s defense in 2025 starts with a straightforward advantage: continuity.

The unit that allowed just 20.6 points per game in 2024 returns its core contributors, providing the foundation for continued excellence. This isn’t about replacing talent. This is about building on proven success.

Safety Malaki Starks anchors the secondary after recording 77 tackles and establishing himself as one of the nation’s premier defensive backs. His leadership and playmaking ability provide the steady presence that championship defenses require.

Linebacker Jalon Walker brings elite production (11 tackles for loss, 6.5 sacks) and veteran leadership to a position group with championship-level depth. The emergence of players like KJ Bolden, who finished 2024 strongly and projects as a breakout candidate, adds optimism to an already formidable unit.

The defensive line faces the most significant turnover but benefits from elite recruiting additions. Griffin’s early enrollment allows immediate competition for playing time while returning players like Christen Miller and Jordan Hall provide proven production.

This combination creates something special: veteran leadership merged with elite young talent.

Schedule Flip Creates Championship Opportunity

Georgia’s 2025 schedule represents the best possible scenario for a reloading team.

The same eight SEC opponents from 2024 return, but with home and away sites flipped. This creates massive advantages for the Bulldogs, who will host their most dangerous opponents while traveling to more manageable road environments.

The schedule highlights tell the story:

  • Texas makes its first-ever trip to Athens (November 15)
  • Alabama visits Athens for the first time since 2015
  • Ole Miss, Kentucky, also come to Sanford Stadium
  • Road games at Tennessee, Auburn, Mississippi State, Florida

According to ESPN’s Football Power Index, Georgia faces the 13th most brutal schedule among FBS teams. Phil Steele ranks it 44th nationally and 13th in the SEC. These aren’t overwhelming numbers for a program with championship aspirations.

The non-conference slate (Marshall, Austin Peay, Charlotte, Georgia Tech) provides opportunities to build momentum and develop depth before conference play intensifies.

Offensive Questions Demand Immediate Answers

The departure of leading receiver Arian Smith creates the season’s most significant offensive question mark.

Smith’s 817 receiving yards and 17.0 yards per catch represented the explosive element that stretched opposing defenses. Replacing that production isn’t just about finding another receiver. It’s about maintaining the vertical passing game that makes Georgia’s offense dangerous.

Transfer receiver Zachariah Branch possesses elite potential and the ability to make an immediate impact. Players like Colbie Young and Noah Thomas offer proven experience. But the question remains: Can this group create the explosive plays that championship offenses require?

The running game features more certainty with returning talent:

  • Nate Frazier: 671 rushing yards, 5.0 yards per carry in 2024
  • Cash Jones: Versatile threat as runner and receiver
  • Bo Walker: Impressed during spring practice, adds depth

Offensive coordinator Mike Bobo enters his second season with increased familiarity with the personnel. This continuity factor cannot be understated, as Bobo’s system becomes more refined with experienced players who understand their roles.

The Championship Window Stays Open

Georgia enters 2025 with legitimate championship aspirations for one simple reason: They have everything necessary to compete at the highest level.

The 12-team playoff format provides a margin for error that previous generations never enjoyed. The program’s infrastructure, from recruiting to player development, creates sustainable excellence that extends beyond individual seasons.

Smart’s track record of reloading rather than rebuilding provides confidence that the program can maintain elite status despite significant roster turnover. This isn’t about hoping for lightning to strike twice. This is about systematic excellence producing predictable results.

What Must Improve for Championship Contention

The 2024 season revealed specific weaknesses that championship teams cannot afford.

The areas demanding immediate improvement:

  • Turnover margin (minus one directly contributed to critical losses)
  • Penalty issues (5.7 per game stalled drives, extended opponents’ possessions)
  • Red zone efficiency in high-leverage situations
  • Defensive ability to create turnovers without surrendering explosive plays

These are correctable issues that coaching and experience can address. But they must be addressed for championship contention to become a championship reality.

The Verdict: Championship or Disappointment

Georgia’s 2025 season represents a classic reloading year disguised as something more dangerous.

The talent pipeline ensures competitive depth. The schedule flip provides a home-field advantage in crucial games. Smart’s proven ability to develop quarterbacks and maintain defensive excellence creates optimism for sustained success.

But here’s what makes this season different: The margin for error has shrunk.

For a program with two national championships in four years, anything less than playoff contention represents failure. Georgia enters 2025 with the expectation of competing for SEC and national championships, backed by the talent and infrastructure necessary to achieve those goals.

The championship window remains wide open in Athens.

The 2025 season presents another opportunity to prove that Georgia football belongs among college football’s elite programs, not just occasionally but consistently, year after year.

The Next Billion Dollar Game

College football isn’t just a sport anymore—it’s a high-stakes market where information asymmetry separates winners from losers. While the average fan sees only what happens between the sidelines, real insiders trade on the hidden dynamics reshaping programs from the inside out.

Our team has embedded with the power brokers who run this game. From the coaching carousel to NIL deals to transfer portal strategies, we’ve mapped the entire ecosystem with the kind of obsessive detail that would make a hedge fund analyst blush.

Why subscribe? Because in markets this inefficient, information creates alpha. Our subscribers knew which coaches were dead men walking months before the mainstream media caught on. They understood which programs were quietly transforming their recruiting apparatuses while competitors slept.

The smart money is already positioning for 2025. Are you?

Click below—it’s free—and join the small group of people who understand the real value of college football’s new economy.

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Missouri Football 2025: The Year Everything Must Come Together

Mark Haines on July 8, 2025

Missouri Football is about to find out if their recent success was real or just a beautiful accident.

After back-to-back 10-win seasons that shocked college football, the Tigers face the ultimate test of sustainability. Star quarterback Brady Cook is gone. Top receivers Luther Burden III and Theo Wease Jr. departed for the NFL. Nearly half of the roster turned over due to graduation and the transfer portal.

What remains is a program trying to prove that lightning can strike three times in Columbia.

Eli Drinkwitz Just Made the Boldest Promise in College Football

Most coaches lower expectations during rebuilding years.

Drinkwitz is doing the exact opposite. He’s openly targeting achievements that have never been accomplished in Missouri football history, starting with a third consecutive 10-win season.

“I think the challenge for us is to do something that’s never been done before. It’s never been accomplished at the University of Missouri to extend that [10-win season] streak to a third season,” Drinkwitz told ABC 17 Sports.

But he didn’t stop there.

The fourth-year head coach is also pursuing Missouri’s first SEC championship and College Football Playoff berth. According to CBS Sports analysis, “And in no way are they approaching this year like that’s their plan [to go 7-5]. I get the feeling around Columbia like Eli Drinkwitz is openly talking about, ‘We’re trying to do things that have never been done.'”

This isn’t coach speak.

This program believes its foundation is strong enough to support championship-level expectations while navigating massive roster turnover.

The $1.5 Million Quarterback Gamble That Changes Everything

Beau Pribula holds the keys to Missouri’s entire season.

The Penn State transfer didn’t just sign with the Tigers. According to sources who spoke to On3, his NIL package will pay him $1.5 million in 2025, putting him on par with starting SEC quarterbacks across the conference.

That’s not just an investment.

That’s a statement about Missouri’s commitment to maintaining elite quarterback play after losing Brady Cook’s 8,721 career passing yards and veteran leadership.

Here’s what makes Pribula special:

  • Completed 26 of 35 passes for 275 yards and five touchdowns at Penn State
  • Added 242 rushing yards and four touchdowns on just 38 carries
  • Dual-threat ability fits perfectly within Drinkwitz’s offensive system
  • Two years of eligibility remaining for program continuity

But there’s a catch.

Pribula will compete with redshirt junior Sam Horn, who missed all of 2024 while recovering from Tommy John surgery. Horn, a former four-star recruit, hasn’t completed a pass since 2023 but possesses the physical tools that made him highly recruited.

Missouri won’t name a starter until August.

Everything depends on which quarterback can master the system fastest while building chemistry with a largely rebuilt receiving corps.

How Missouri Rebuilt Their Roster in Record Time

Twenty-six new players arrived through the transfer portal.

That’s not roster management. That’s complete program reconstruction executed with surgical precision.

The Tigers lost 29 players but responded with what multiple outlets rank as a top-10 transfer portal class nationally. Instead of panic recruiting, Missouri targeted specific weaknesses from 2024’s two blowout losses to Alabama and Texas A&M.

The most impactful offensive additions:

  • Ahmad Hardy (RB, Louisiana-Monroe): 1,300+ yard rusher expected to lead the backfield
  • Kevin Coleman Jr. (WR, Mississippi State): All-SEC slot receiver to replace NFL departures
  • Keagen Trost (OT, Wake Forest): Immediate tackle depth
  • Dominick Giudice (OL, Michigan): Versatile guard/center option
  • Jaylen Early (OT, Florida State): Another tackle option for depth

The defensive game-changers:

  • Damon Wilson II (DE, Georgia): Five-star transfer headlines improved pass rush
  • Josiah Trotter (LB, West Virginia): Veteran experience and proven production
  • Mikai Gbayor (LB, Nebraska): Athletic upgrade at linebacker
  • Santana Banner (S, Northern Illinois): Secondary help for coverage issues
  • Mose Phillips (S, Virginia Tech): Additional safety depth and experience

This wasn’t random talent acquisition.

This was strategic problem-solving that addressed every weakness that cost Missouri games in 2024.

The Defense Keeps Missouri Competitive While the Offense Figures It Out

Missouri’s defense finished 2024 with 28 takeaways.

That ranked sixth nationally and included 18 interceptions from a secondary that showed dramatic improvement throughout the season. While the offense integrates new faces, this defensive foundation provides the stability needed to remain competitive in every game.

Key returning defenders include:

  • Triston Newson (LB): 71 tackles, 7 tackles for loss in 2024
  • Zion Young (DE): Led team in pressures, should benefit from attention on Wilson
  • A secondary trio that provides continuity and proven ball skills

Defensive coordinator Corey Batoon enters his second season with improved talent and scheme familiarity.

The combination creates optimism for a unit that must keep games close while the offense develops chemistry and rhythm.

The Schedule That Could Make or Break Everything

Missouri doesn’t play a road game until Week 8.

Read that again. The Tigers will host their first six games of the season, including tune-ups against South Dakota, Eastern Michigan, and Boston College, before SEC play begins.

According to CBS Sports, “Missouri doesn’t have its first road game until Week 8 (!!) at Auburn. The Tigers face Alabama at home the week before, following a tune-up game against UMass and a bye. That’s an incredibly fortunate draw for Drinkwitz and Co.”

This scheduling quirk provides something invaluable:

  • Time for new starters to develop chemistry at home
  • Opportunity to build confidence before hostile SEC environments
  • Six home games to establish offensive identity
  • Momentum-building potential before the road gauntlet begins

The schedule features the same SEC opponents as 2024, just with home and away flipped.

Missouri will host Alabama, Texas A&M, and Mississippi State while traveling to Auburn, Vanderbilt, Oklahoma, and Arkansas.

As one analyst noted, “I don’t think Missouri has a single game on the schedule that you look at and say there’s no way you can win that, but they’ve also got about seven of them that they look at and say they could lose.”

Translation: Every game matters, but every game is winnable.

Why Vegas Is Wrong About Missouri’s Ceiling

FanDuel set Missouri’s win total at 7.5 games.

The oddsmakers clearly expect regression after losing so much production. But they’re missing something crucial about this program’s trajectory and foundation.

FOX Sports analyst Joel Klatt sees the bigger picture:

“It’s a team that could go 10-2. They might need 10-2 versus like Florida’s 9-3, but it’s certainly doable with the way that program has manifested itself over the last few years.”

Here’s what the betting lines don’t account for:

  • Drinkwitz’s proven ability to develop quarterbacks and maximize talent
  • Strategic portal additions that directly address 2024 weaknesses
  • Favorable scheduling that aids integration of new players
  • Cultural foundation built over five seasons of program building
  • Recruiting momentum that continues attracting elite talent

The disconnect between external expectations and internal confidence creates opportunity.

Missouri has consistently outperformed preseason projections under Drinkwitz, and 2025 could be the biggest example yet.

The Hidden Factors That Could Determine Everything

Special teams might be Missouri’s secret weapon.

Kicker Blake Craig returns after converting 70.6% of field goals as a freshman, providing reliability in close SEC contests. Punter Connor Weselman arrives from Stanford to upgrade field position battles that often determine outcomes in conference play.

Emerging players to watch:

  • Joshua Manning (WR): Poised for breakout season as primary boundary target
  • Chris McClellan (DT): Defensive anchor despite being overshadowed by transfers
  • Nicholas Rodriguez (LB): Reports suggest “monster offseason” could earn rotation spot
  • Donovan Olugbode (WR, Fr): “Day one ready” freshman who could contribute immediately

Coaching stability provides another advantage.

Drinkwitz and his coordinators return with proven adaptability and development track records. Their aggressive portal usage and scheme flexibility give Missouri competitive advantages that extend beyond pure talent comparisons.

The Bottom Line: This Is Make-or-Break Time

Missouri has everything necessary to achieve the impossible.

A potentially elite quarterback. Strategic roster construction. Favorable scheduling. Proven coaching. Championship-level ambitions backed by realistic pathways to success.

But potential means nothing without execution.

The 2025 season will determine whether Drinkwitz has built something truly sustainable in Columbia or whether back-to-back 10-win seasons were just a brief peak before returning to historical norms.

For the first time in program history, Missouri isn’t just hoping to compete in the SEC.

They’re expecting to contend for titles that have never been within reach.

The pieces are in place. The expectations are set. The schedule cooperates.

Now comes the hardest part: proving that lightning can strike three times in Missouri.

The Next Billion Dollar Game

College football isn’t just a sport anymore—it’s a high-stakes market where information asymmetry separates winners from losers. While the average fan sees only what happens between the sidelines, real insiders trade on the hidden dynamics reshaping programs from the inside out.

Our team has embedded with the power brokers who run this game. From the coaching carousel to NIL deals to transfer portal strategies, we’ve mapped the entire ecosystem with the kind of obsessive detail that would make a hedge fund analyst blush.

Why subscribe? Because in markets this inefficient, information creates alpha. Our subscribers knew which coaches were dead men walking months before the mainstream media caught on. They understood which programs were quietly transforming their recruiting apparatuses while competitors slept.

The smart money is already positioning for 2025. Are you?

Click below—it’s free—and join the small group of people who understand the real value of college football’s new economy.

Free Subscription
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