Coaches Hot Seat Rankings – Week 14

Coaches Hot Seat Rankings—Week 14. Our full rankings are delayed due to technical difficulties. Our team is working on a solution, and we will release them as soon as possible.

In the meantime, the Top 20 appears on our site.

The coaching carousel has started spinning earlier than expected this year, with two notable moves reshaping the landscape just days before rivalry weekend. On Tuesday morning, North Carolina shocked the college football world by parting ways with Hall of Fame coach Mack Brown, ending his second stint in Chapel Hill after six seasons. The decision came just 24 hours after Brown had publicly stated his intention to return in 2025, marking an awkward end for the 73-year-old who led the Tar Heels to six straight bowl appearances during his return tenure.

While Brown prepares for his final game against NC State this Saturday, Rice made its move by hiring Davidson head coach Scott Abell to lead their program. Abell, who built Davidson into an FCS powerhouse with his innovative triple-option offense, faces the challenge of translating his success to the FBS level.

These early moves could be harbingers of a relatively quiet coaching carousel, as many programs appear hesitant to make changes amid uncertainty surrounding player revenue sharing and a thin candidate pool. However, that hasn’t stopped the temperature from rising for several coaches fighting to save their jobs.

In this week’s Hot Seat Rankings, we examine the mounting pressure at FIU, where Mike MacIntyre’s tenure has devolved into chaos amid allegations of misconduct and thrown furniture. We’ll also analyze Neal Brown’s expensive mediocrity at West Virginia, Kenni Burns’ historically bad run at Kent State, and the declining returns at Appalachian State under Shawn Clark.

Week 14 – Coaches Hot Seat Top 4

Mike MacIntryre, head coach of Florida International - Coaches Hot Seat

In the economics of college football, Mike MacIntyre’s tenure at FIU represents a perfect market failure – where moral hazard meets reputational collapse in real-time. His 11-24 record tells only part of the story; the real ledger is written in broken trust and thrown furniture.

The math is brutal: one chair was thrown in a rivalry game halftime, twelve current players silently support allegations of misconduct, and eight are starters. It’s a balance sheet of fear, where scholarships become leverage and silence becomes currency.

MacIntyre’s recent attempt to rewrite FIU’s history (“this program hasn’t had a good history since the beginning”) reads less like a gaffe and more like a desperate man’s attempt to hedge against his failure. However, markets have a way of finding true value, and in college football, truth emerges in empty seats and player testimonies.

The most telling metric isn’t his 3-8 record in 2024 but the text message circulating through his locker room, begging players to defend him to the athletic director. It’s the kind of desperate liquidity call that precedes institutional collapse, where a coach’s credibility becomes the ultimate distressed asset.

In the end, MacIntyre’s FIU tenure might be remembered not for the games lost but for the moment when the cost of silence exceeded the price of speaking out.

Neal Brown - Head Coach of West Virginia Mountaineers - Coaches Hot Seat

Neal Brown’s story at West Virginia reads like a cautionary tale of college football’s middle class. In an era when programs are expected to ascend or decline, Brown mastered the art of maintaining perfect mediocrity—a feat that paradoxically sealed his fate.

Every season followed a similar script: flashes of potential undermined by predictable setbacks. He’d win just enough to keep hope alive but never enough to compete. His 37-34 record tells the story of a program stuck in limbo, neither good enough to challenge the conference elite nor bad enough to force immediate change.

The numbers that matter aren’t the wins and losses but the empty seats at Milan Puskar Stadium. In college football’s attention economy, being average is worse than being terrible. At least terrible teams inspire passion. Brown’s teams inspired something far more dangerous: indifference.

The 2024 season, following a deceptively promising 9-4 campaign exposed the fundamental flaw in Brown’s tenure. When finally given a veteran team and heightened expectations, his program reverted to its mean. A pattern that speaks to a larger truth about college football: you can’t build a program on almost but not quite.

Brown’s buyout is $16.7 million if fired before Dec. 31, 2024. Reports suggest WVU donors may help fund this buyout, making his termination more financially feasible than previously thought. The high buyout was initially considered job security, but donor intervention changed that calculus.

Kenni Burns - Kent State Head Coach - Coaches Hot Seat

Kenni Burns’ tenure at Kent State has devolved from a cautionary tale into pure absurdity. His 2024 season reads like a dark comedy: losing to St. Francis (PA), a non-major program, before suffering historic beatdowns at Tennessee (71-0) and Penn State (56-0). His overall record now stands at 1-33, with zero wins in 2024.

The numbers tell a story of competitive collapse. Kent State hasn’t just lost – they’ve been outscored 486-160. In MAC play, where mid-majors are supposed to find their level, they’ve been outscored 282-99. The final indignity came in losing the Wagon Wheel rivalry to Akron, sacrificing even the $5,000 bonus that might have helped with those credit card payments.

But the contract extension through 2028 transforms this from tragedy into farce. Kent State isn’t just paying for failure – they’re financing it long-term, like a subprime mortgage on competitive irrelevance. Their head coach can’t balance his checkbook, and their football program can’t score a point against top-25 teams. Both, somehow, keep getting extended credit.

In the end, Burns isn’t just losing games—he’s redefining the boundaries of institutional patience in an industry famous for lacking it.

Burns’ buyout after 2024 is $1.51 million, per his contract extension signed in February 2024. This figure represents approximately three years of his base salary at Kent State.

Shawn Clark - Appalachian State Head Coach - Coaches Hot Seat

The 2024 season has only reinforced the narrative of App State’s decline under Clark. At 5-5 (potentially 5-6 with Georgia Southern remaining), the program continues its downward trajectory from its previous G5 powerhouse status.

Key 2024 Issues:

  • Blowout losses (66-20 to Clemson, 48-14 to South Alabama)
  • 2-5 in Sun Belt before recent recovery
  • Defensive collapse (allowing 35.1 PPG)

However, recent wins over JMU and ODU show signs of life. The question is whether this late-season surge can save Clark’s job, especially given his careful contract structure with decreasing buyouts.

The math is stark: Clark’s overall record is now 44-28 (.611), but the trend line points downward. For a program that once dominated the Sun Belt, mediocrity feels like failure. App State faces a decision: whether maintaining a winning record justifies retaining a coach who’s transformed their championship expectations into bowl eligibility hopes.

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Coaches Hot Seat is Targeting Winners for Week 10

Okay, folks, get ready. It’s that time of the week again when we dive headfirst into the chaotic, beautiful mess that is college football. Friday’s episode of the Targeting Winners podcast (available on Spotify, Apple, or wherever you get your podcasts) is coming at you hot, and trust me, you don’t want to miss this. They’ll be talking Xs and Os, dissecting matchups, and uncovering those hidden gems that’ll have you cashing in come Saturday.

Today, I’ll share my weekend bets and prep with you.  I’m not just throwing darts at a board. I’m breaking down film, analyzing stats, and getting into the nitty-gritty.

This week, I’ve got three games I’m reviewing: San Diego State at Boise State, Ohio State at Penn State, and Pitt at SMU. We’re talking potential upsets, high-scoring shootouts, and maybe even a bit of old-fashioned smashmouth football. So read my breakdown below, make your picks, and fire up Spotify, Apple, or wherever you get your podcasts on Friday afternoon. Then, get ready to ride the wave with us.

San Diego State at (15) Boise State

The San Diego State Aztecs (3-4) will face the No. 15 Boise State Broncos (6-1) in a Mountain West Conference matchup on Friday, November 1, 2024, at Albertsons Stadium in Boise, Idaho14. The game will kick off at 8:00 p.m. ET and be broadcast on Fox Sports 14.

Betting Odds and Predictions

Boise State is heavily favored in this matchup:

  • Spread: Boise State -23.5
  • Moneyline: Boise State -2439, San Diego State +1096
  • Over/Under: 57.5 points14

The College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter (CFN FPM) has a slightly tighter spread of Boise State -18.54.

Key Factors

Home Field Advantage: Boise State has a strong home field advantage, but San Diego State has won at Albertsons Stadium in the past (2018 and 2012).

Head-to-Head Record: This will be the 10th meeting between the two teams, with Boise State holding a slight 5-4 advantage.

Recent Performance: Boise State has won every game where it has been favored this year, while San Diego State has failed to win as an underdog.

Against the Spread (ATS): San Diego State is 3-2 ATS as an underdog, while Boise State has failed to cover three times as a double-digit favorite.

Weather: The forecast calls for temperatures around 42 degrees with a chance of showers, which could impact game performance.

Outlook by Team

San Diego State:

  • New head coach Sean Lewis wants to improve last year’s 4-8 record.
  • The Aztecs have an 8.3% winning probability for this game.
  • Their season outlook improves after this game, with better winning probabilities against upcoming opponents.

Boise State:

  • The Broncos have a 91.7% winning probability for this game.
  • They are on track for a potential Group of Five spot in the College Football Playoff, and their remaining games have high winning probabilities.

Analysis

Okay, you’ve got this classic David vs. Goliath scenario brewing in Boise. San Diego State, the scrappy underdog, is rolling into town with a new coach and something to prove. They’re like the Oakland A’s of college football, trying to outsmart the system with grit and a lot of hustle. But then there’s Boise State, the perennial powerhouse, the kings of the blue turf. They’re the New York Yankees, used to winning and expected to dominate.

But here’s the thing: Boise State has this weird quirk. When they’re supposed to win big, they sometimes… don’t. It’s like they get bored or something. And San Diego State? Well, they’ve been defying expectations all season. They’re like that one stock you didn’t think would make a comeback, but suddenly it’s surging. Nobody saw it coming.

You might think this is just another game, but it’s more than that. It’s a clash of cultures, a test of wills. Can San Diego State, with its new coach and underdog mentality, pull off the upset? Or will Boise State crush their dreams with its home-field advantage and history of dominance? It’s a high-stakes game, and the tension is thicker than the Idaho potato soup they serve in the stadium.

Prediction

The air crackles with anticipation. The Broncos, bathed in the eerie glow of the blue turf, exude an aura of invincibility. But beneath the surface, a tremor of doubt. The Aztecs, eyes locked on their prey, carry the quiet confidence of a wolf pack circling its quarry.

This is not a game of mere statistics and spreadsheets. It’s a battle of souls, a collision of destinies. Boise State, the established power, yearns to maintain its grip on the throne. The hungry challenger, San Diego State, fights for recognition and a place at the table.

The final whistle blows. The scoreboard tells a story of Boise State’s dominance: 35-14. But the numbers don’t reveal the whole truth. They don’t show the fierce struggle, the moments of brilliance, the echoes of what could have been. San Diego State, though defeated, leaves the field with heads held high. They have pushed the giants to the brink, proven their mettle, and earned respect that transcends the final score.

Game 2: (3) Ohio State at (7) Penn State

No. 3 Ohio State (7-1) will face No. 7 Penn State (7-0) in a crucial Big Ten matchup on Saturday, November 2, 2024, at Beaver Stadium in University Park, Pennsylvania. The game will kick off at noon ET and be broadcast on Fox.

Betting Odds and Predictions

The betting odds and predictions for this game are notably close:

  • Spread: SMU -7.5
  • Moneyline: SMU -340, Pittsburgh +270
  • Over/Under: 59 points

Interestingly, the College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter (CFN FPM) slightly favors Penn State with a spread of Penn State -1.5.

Key Factors

  • Recent History: Ohio State has won the last seven meetings between these teams, indicating a psychological edge.
  • Home Field Advantage: Penn State will benefit from playing at Beaver Stadium, which could be a significant factor.
  • Against the Spread (ATS): Both teams are 3-4 ATS this season, suggesting neither has a clear advantage in covering the spread.
  • Recent Performance: Ohio State has failed to cover in their last two games, including a narrow loss to Oregon.
  • Weather: The forecast calls for partly cloudy conditions with mild temperatures, which shouldn’t significantly impact the game.

Outlook by Team

Ohio State:

  • The Buckeyes have a 47.5% winning probability for this game.
  • A win would keep them in contention for the Big Ten Championship and the College Football Playoff.
  • Their remaining schedule looks favorable, with high winning probabilities against most opponents.

Penn State:

  • The Nittany Lions have a 52.5% winning probability for this game.
  • A win could potentially secure their spot in the College Football Playoff and the Big Ten title game.
  • Their remaining schedule appears relatively easy, with high winning probabilities against all opponents.

Analysis

This game is a real barnburner. Ohio State, the big, bad Buckeyes, strolling into Happy Valley like they own the place. They’re the Goldman Sachs of college football, all about tradition and pedigree. But Penn State? They’re the hungry upstarts, the Robinhood traders trying to disrupt the establishment.

Now, on paper, Ohio State should have this in the bag. They’ve got the history, the talent, the whole nine yards. But something’s not quite right. They’ve been stumbling lately, like a thoroughbred with a pulled hamstring. And Penn State? They’re playing with a fire in their belly, a chip on their shoulder. They’re like that meme stock, GameStop, ready to explode.

But here’s the kicker: Penn State has this weird thing about pressure. It’s like they get stage fright when the spotlight’s on. And Ohio State? Well, they’re used to the big stage. They thrive on it. It’s like they’re playing with house money.

This game is not just about X’s and O’s. It’s about psychology, about who wants it more. With their home crowd and underdog mentality, can Penn State pull off the upset? Or will Ohio State silence the doubters with their championship pedigree and ability to perform under pressure? It’s a high-stakes game, folks, and the tension is thicker than a Philly cheesesteak.

Prediction

This is not merely a contest of athletic prowess. It’s a clash of wills, a battle for supremacy. Hungry for victory, Penn State seeks to break the chains of history. Ohio State, the reigning king, fights to preserve its legacy.

The final whistle echoes through the valley. The scoreboard illuminates the night: Penn State 24, Ohio State 21. The upset is complete. The Nittany Lions have roared to victory, their hearts and spirit carrying them through the storm. Ohio State, wounded but not broken, retreats into the night, knowing that the battle for dominance has just begun.

Game 3: Pitt @ SMU

No. 18 Pittsburgh (7-0, 3-0 ACC) will face No. 20 SMU (7-1, 4-0 ACC) in a crucial ACC matchup on Saturday, November 2, 2024, at Gerald J. Ford Stadium in University Park, Texas—the game broadcast on the ACC Network.

Betting Odds and Predictions

The betting odds for this game favor SMU:

  • Spread: SMU -7.5
  • Moneyline: SMU -340, Pittsburgh +270
  • Over/Under: 59 points

Interestingly, the College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter (CFN FPM) sees the game as a “pick’em”.

Key Factors

Historical Record: SMU leads the all-time series 3-2-1, with their last meeting in 2012.

Recent Performance: Pittsburgh is undefeated at 7-0, while SMU has a strong 7-1 record.

Against the Spread (ATS): Pittsburgh has been excellent ATS at 6-1, including 2-0 as an underdog. SMU has failed to cover three times as a favorite this season.

Weather: The forecast calls for rainy conditions, which could impact the game plan for both teams.

Quarterback Play: SMU’s switch to Kevin Jennings at quarterback has recently improved their performance.

Outlook by Team

Pittsburgh:

  • The Panthers have a 50.6% winning probability for this game.
  • They’ve won many close games this season, suggesting luck and resilience.
  • Their defense has been opportunistic, with three pick-sixes in their last game against Syracuse.

SMU:

  • The Mustangs have a 49.4% winning probability for this game.
  • They’ve shown consistent improvement, especially since changing quarterbacks.
  • SMU is coming off a game with six turnovers, which is likely an anomaly.

Analysis

In this matchup, we have two overperforming squads defying preseason predictions, each with a unique storyline. Pittsburgh, sitting undefeated, has won a series of nail-biters, showing grit but perhaps testing the bounds of luck. Conversely, SMU has been on a steady upward trajectory, bolstered by a passionate home crowd that could be a game-changer.

Key Factors to Watch:

Turnover Battle: Both teams have recently emerged from turnover-heavy games that were borderline chaotic. But volatility doesn’t tend to linger; we’re likely to see a reversion to the mean here. This could give an edge to whichever team capitalizes on each opportunity.

SMU’s Dual-Threat QB: Pittsburgh’s defense hasn’t faced a genuine dual-threat quarterback, which will test their ability to handle both the pass and the scramble. SMU’s quarterback, Jennings, brings a dynamic quality that could break open Pittsburgh’s defensive schemes.

Weather Impact: Forecasts call for rain, which often turns passing into a slippery gamble. In such conditions, expect a heavy reliance on the ground game, potentially increasing the chance of turnovers, fumbles, and short-field opportunities.

Prediction

While Pittsburgh has proven itself resilient in close encounters, SMU’s home-field advantage and steadily improving roster could tilt the scales. Jennings and the Mustangs’ offense should be capable of pressuring Pittsburgh’s defense in ways they haven’t yet experienced this season. Given a return to average turnover rates and SMU’s balanced approach, they look positioned to edge out the Panthers.

Score Prediction:

SMU 31, Pittsburgh 24

This forecast aligns with the current betting odds, reflecting the likely tightness of the contest. With the potential for rain to stymie offensive flow, the game should settle under the 59-point over/under, as weather conditions push teams to lean more on the ground game and conservative strategies.

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The Coaching Carousel is Picking Up

The college football coaching carousel is spinning.

Four coaches have been shown the door this year, even before Mike Bloomgren got the boot at Rice over the weekend. Let’s recap:

  • Jeff Tedford (Fresno State): Stepped down in July due to health concerns. It was a tough break for Fresno State, as Tedford had them back on track.
  • Blake Anderson (Utah State): Fired in July after allegedly contacting a domestic violence victim and witness. It is a serious situation and a reminder that off-field issues can have major consequences.
  • Will Hall (Southern Miss): Let go after a disappointing 1-6 start. Sometimes, the results aren’t there, and a change is needed.
  • Mike Houston (East Carolina): Also fired after a rough start to the season. This is another case of expectations not being met.

With Bloomgren out at Rice, there will be five coaching changes in October. We expect fewer coaching changes than we saw during the 2023 season, but the pace of changes will accelerate as the season continues.

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Hot Seat Heat Wave: Stoops, Dilfer, and Drayton Feeling the Burn

A Hot Seat Heatwave is heading our way, featuring seats under some of the biggest names in the game. Every week, we’re tracking the coaches feeling the pressure, those whose jobs are on the line with every win and loss. This week, we’ve got a new entry into our Top 10, plus updates on two coaches facing mounting scrutiny as their programs struggle to find their footing. Get ready, folks, because things are about to get interesting.

Entering the top 10 this week is Mark Stoops at Kentucky

Mark Stoops – Kentucky

  • Conference: SEC
  • Base Salary: $9,000,000
  • School Win Percentage: 52.1%
  • Career Win Percentage: 52.1%
  • Stoops has a solid record but faces high expectations, given his substantial salary.

Let’s delve into the remarkable transformation under Mark Stoops. He took the reins at Kentucky, a program once considered the SEC’s underdog, and turned them into a formidable contender. It’s a story of resilience and determination. He inherited a 2-10 team and sculpted them into a consistent bowl contender, shattering decades-long losing streaks against rivals like Florida and Tennessee. He even led them to 10-win seasons, a feat they hadn’t achieved since the disco era.

However, with success comes the burden of expectations. The weight of these expectations is palpable, and it’s starting to take a toll on Stoops. The fans are growing impatient. They’re weary of the 7-5 seasons, the predictable offense, and the losses to teams they believe they should outplay. They see the potential in the team and question why Kentucky isn’t vying for SEC titles.

Now, Stoops isn’t backing down. He’s got that tough-guy mentality, that “I’ve been here before, I’ll weather this storm” attitude. But the pressure’s mounting. He needs to find a way to get this offense rolling, win those crucial games, and show that Kentucky can take that next step.

Here’s the twist: his buyout is surprisingly low. This opens up a world of possibilities for Kentucky. If the situation doesn’t improve, they could make a change without incurring significant financial strain. Stoops crafted something extraordinary at Kentucky, but he’s now standing at a crossroads. He needs to evolve, adapt, and demonstrate that he can elevate this program to the next level. The clock is ticking, Mark. It’s time to silence the skeptics.

Trent Dilfer: From Super Bowl Champ to College Flop?

Trent Dilfer, UAB

  • Conference: American
  • Base Salary: $1,300,000
  • School Win Percentage: 26.3%
  • Career Win Percentage: 26.3%
  • Hot Seat member Adam Binaut points out: UAB has been outscored 150-55 in their last three games. This program is on life support.

Trent Dilfer stepped into UAB with a ton of hype, a Super Bowl ring, and… well, not much else. Let’s be honest: The guy had never coached college ball. He inherited a winning program and a team that crushed it year after year. And what happened? They fell apart. It’s a situation that’s left fans and analysts alike scratching their heads in frustration.

5-14. That’s the record. A far cry from the championship banners they were hanging before he got there. Sure, they had a flashy offense for a minute, breaking records and all that. But records don’t win games, do they? The defense? It was a complete disaster. And to top it off, Dilfer’s out here making comments that rub everyone the wrong way.

Look, I get it. Sometimes, things don’t work out. But this? This feels different. This feels like a mismatch from the start. UAB deserves better. They deserve a leader who can build on what they have, not tear it down. The clock’s ticking, Trent. It’s time to step up or step aside.

Stan Drayton: Can “Culture Change” Save His Job at Temple?

Stan Drayton – Temple

  • Conference: American
  • Base Salary: $2,500,000
  • School Win Percentage: 25.0%
  • Career Win Percentage: 25.0%
  • Drayton’s third year at Temple hasn’t seen much improvement, keeping him on the hot seat.

Stan Drayton came into Temple preaching this whole “culture change” thing. Lots of talk about trust, ownership, and building the guys up. And hey, you can see some of that. The team has a different vibe. But let’s be blunt: winning cures everything. And right now, Temple ain’t winning.

8-24. That’s the record. Not exactly inspiring, is it? You can talk about “building” all you want, but at some point, you gotta show results. Drayton hasn’t.

He’s lost talent to more prominent programs, struggled to recruit, and those offensive and defensive lines? Yikes. Needs a serious overhaul.

Check out the complete rankings here and leave any comments here.

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Bloomgren Era Ends at Rice – Fifth Coaching Change This Season

Well, folks, the Mike Bloomgren experiment in Houston has finally ended. Rice has decided to move on from their head coach after seven seasons, a 24-52 record, and a disappointing 2-6 start to this year.

Bloomgren did manage to get the Owls to back-to-back bowl games, which is something, I guess. But let’s be honest, a losing record like that just isn’t cut it in today’s college football landscape.

It’s tough to see a coach lose his job, but sometimes a change is necessary. Hopefully, Rice can find someone to take them to the next level.

As for Bloomgren, I’m sure he’ll land on his feet somewhere. He’s a good coach with a solid track record. Maybe a fresh start is precisely what he needs.

The college football coaching carousel is spinning.

Four coaches have been shown the door this year, even before Bloomgren got the boot. Let’s recap:

  • Jeff Tedford (Fresno State): Stepped down in July due to health concerns. It was a tough break for Fresno State, as Tedford had them back on track.
  • Blake Anderson (Utah State): Fired in July after allegedly contacting a domestic violence victim and witness. It is a serious situation and a reminder that off-field issues can have major consequences.
  • Will Hall (Southern Miss): Let go after a disappointing 1-6 start. Sometimes, the results aren’t there, and a change is needed.
  • Mike Houston (East Carolina): Also fired after a rough start to the season. This is another case of expectations not being met.

With Bloomgren out at Rice, there will be five coaching changes in October. We expect fewer coaching changes than we saw during the 2023 season, but the pace of changes will accelerate as the season continues.

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