Blog Article

Coaches Hot Seat Rankings – End of Season 2025

Mark Haines on December 9, 2025

The 2025 regular season is complete.

The coaching carousel is not.

These rankings reflect pressure, not predictions. We don’t forecast firings. We track the gap between expectations and results – the weight of buyouts, the patience of administrators, the brutal math of wins and losses in a sport that changes by the hour.

This list is a work in progress.

Openings remain unfilled. Coordinators are fielding calls. NFL franchises are circling college sidelines. By the time you read this, names may have moved to new programs, new positions, or out of the profession entirely.

What won’t change:

The decisions these coaches made in 2025. The results those decisions produced. And the pressure that follows them into the off-season.

Ten coaches.

Ten programs, stuck between the cost of change and the cost of staying the same.

#1. Mike Norvell – Florida State (5-7, 2-6 ACC)

  • Started 3-0 with win over #8 Alabama, collapsed to 7 losses in final 9 games.
  • Outgained opponents in 10 of 11 games but kept losing.
  • Lost to Stanford (no head coach), NC State, Florida.
  • Norvell publicly admitted he doesn’t have answers after losses.
  • Administration retained him with vague “fundamental changes” statement despite $60M+ buyout.
  • Zero road wins.
  • Fan base exhausted.

#2. Mike Locksley – Maryland (4-8, 1-8 Big Ten)

  • Started 4-0, finished 0-8.
  • Pattern repeated: 21-5 in Aug/Sept under Locksley, 15-39 after that.
  • Eight-game losing streak included a loss to Michigan State (winless in conference entering the game).
  • Now 16-43 in Big Ten play, 0-18 vs ranked Big Ten opponents.
  • Worst winning percentage of any Power Four coach with tenure as long as his (after Cal fired Wilcox).
  •  “Fire Locksley” chants at Indiana game.
  • AD Jim Smith retained him citing $13M buyout, lack of booster money, desire to build around freshman QB Malik Washington.
  • Locksley: “winning has a cost.”

#3. Shane Beamer – South Carolina (4-8, 1-7 SEC)

  • SEC Coach of Year 2024 to hot seat in 11 months.
  • Entered 2025 ranked #13 after 6-game win streak, finished 4-8.
  • LaNorris Sellers (preseason Heisman candidate) regressed badly.
  • Offense dead last in SEC: 19.7 PPG, 294.1 YPG.
  • Only Power Four team never to hit 350 yards in single game all season.
  • Fired OC Mike Shula (after 9 games), OL coach Lonnie Teasley, RB coach Marquel Blackwell.
  • Fourth OC in five years incoming.
  • Clemson beat them 28-14 at home (6th straight loss in Columbia).
  • Beamer gave “one billion percent” guarantee 2026 will be different.
  • 2026 schedule brutal: at Alabama, Florida, Oklahoma; home vs Georgia, Tennessee, Texas A&M.

#4. Dave Aranda – Baylor (5-7, 3-6 Big 12)

  • The 2021 Big 12 championship now feels like a different lifetime.
  • 22-26 since that trophy.
  • Defense (Aranda’s specialty) ranked 112th in rushing defense, 106th in total defense, and 123rd in sacks.
  • Sawyer Robertson led the nation in passing yards; it didn’t matter.
  • Went 1-5 down stretch.
  • Only retained due to AD Mack Rhoades’ resignation amid investigation (alleged sideline altercation with TE Michael Trigg).
  • President Linda Livingstone’s retention letter read like a hostage statement: “We are not settling for mediocrity,” while keeping the coach who delivered exactly that.
  • 37-35 at Baylor with one elite season, five years of drift.

#5. Luke Fickell – Wisconsin (4-8, 1-7 Big Ten)

  • Took Cincinnati to CFP.
  • Now 17-21 at Wisconsin with back-to-back losing seasons (first since 1991-92).
  • Worst record since 1-10 in 1990.
  • Offense historically bad: 135th of 136 FBS teams in yards (261.6), 134th scoring (12.5 PPG).
  • Shut out in consecutive games (Ohio State, Iowa) for the first time since 1977.
  • Lost to Minnesota 17-7 in the finale.
  • QB situation disaster—hand-picked transfers available for full season in just 11 of 33 games due to injuries.
  • Fired OC Phil Longo after 10 games in 2024, answered “Why does it matter?” when asked who’d call plays.
  • Four-star RB Amari Latimer flipped to West Virginia on signing day.
  • AD Chris McIntosh issued a vote of confidence and promised more resources.
  • Went 53-10 in the final five years at Cincinnati.
  • 17-21 in three years at Wisconsin.

#6. Derek Mason – Middle Tennessee (3-9, 2-6 CUSA)

  • Two years, six wins, zero bowls.
  • 6-18 since taking over program that played in 11 bowls under Rick Stockstill’s 18-year tenure.
  • Lost season opener to FCS Austin Peay.
  • Seven-game losing streak included losses to Delaware, Missouri State, Kennesaw State (all in first/second year as FBS, all bowl eligible or close).
  • Defense allowed 31.5 PPG. Lost four consecutive conference games by touchdown or less.
  • Closed with wins over 2-10 Sam Houston, 4-8 New Mexico State.
  • Mason is calling that “momentum.”
  • Retained reportedly because AD Chris Massaro may retire in 2026.
  • Now 33-67 as head coach.
  • Stanford coordinator “shine” wore off at Vanderbilt, and it wore off in Murfreesboro.

#7. Bill Belichick – North Carolina (4-8, 2-6 ACC)

  • The six-time Super Bowl champion went 4-8 in his first college season.
  • Debut: College GameDay for 48-14 loss to TCU.
  • Midseason WRAL report: program “unstructured mess,” “complete disaster.”
  • Lost five games by 16+ points.
  • Three FBS wins vs teams with a combined 8-28 record.
  • Offense last in ACC: 264.8 yards, 19.3 PPG.
  • GM Mike Lombardi called UNC the “33rd NFL team” at the presser.
  • Off-field chaos: banned Patriots scouts, assistant suspended for NCAA violations, players cited for reckless driving, 24-year-old girlfriend tabloid fixture.
  • Four-minute postgame presser after NC State blowout, no season recap: “I don’t have one. We haven’t done it.”
  • Guaranteed $10M/year through 2027.
  • Losing players to the portal while fielding NFL inquiries.
  • Three straight losing seasons (two New England, one Chapel Hill).
  • “Patriot Way” hasn’t translated.

#8. Scotty Walden – UTEP (2-10, 1-7 CUSA)

  • Turned Austin Peay into an FCS power.
  • 5-19 in two years at UTEP.
  • Finished 2-10 in 2025 (one fewer win than Year 1).
  • Finale: 61-31 humiliation at Delaware (first FBS season, still blew out UTEP by 30).
  • Walden confronted Delaware coach Ryan Carty over a late field goal, calling it “classless.”
  • UTEP threw five interceptions that game.
  • Lost to Kennesaw State, Missouri State, and Jacksonville State (all FCS) a year ago.
  • UTEP hasn’t won a bowl game since 1967 (the longest FBS bowl drought).
  • Moves to Mountain West in 2026: tougher opponents, longer travel.
  • Age 35 with time to figure it out, but rebuild producing no results.

#9. Jay Sawvel – Wyoming (4-8, 3-5 Mountain West)

  • Craig Bohl built seven straight winning seasons.
  • Sawvel: 7-17 in two years, 4-11 conference, zero bowls.
  • Finished 4-8 in 2025, four-game losing streak to end season (24 combined points).
  • Defense solid (19.9 PPG, 23rd nationally).
  • Offense averaged 16 PPG (inflated by two defensive TDs).
  • Demoted OC Jay Johnson midseason, promoted WR coach Jovon Bouknight – didn’t help.
  • Beat Colorado State 28-0, then scored 17 total over the final three games.
  • AD Tom Burman confirmed return for Year 3, citing $2.88M buyout: “4-8 doesn’t work” but Sawvel “gives us the best chance to get it fixed.”
  • Mountain West losing Boise State, CSU, Fresno State, SDSU, Utah State to Pac-12.
  • Only 20 players remain from Bohl era, none earned all-conference honors.
  • Rebuild stalling.

#10. Dell McGee – Georgia State (1-11, 0-8 Sun Belt)

Two national championship rings at Georgia. 4-20 at Georgia State.

  • Dell McGee helped develop Nick Chubb, Sony Michel, and D’Andre Swift into NFL first-rounders.
  • He can’t develop a competitive Sun Belt roster.

Inherited a program that went 7-6 with a bowl win in 2023 under Shawn Elliott.

  • Two years later: back-to-back double-digit loss seasons.
  • The 2025 campaign delivered historic futility.
  • Lost opener at Ole Miss 63-14 (gave up nearly 700 yards).
  • Lost to Vanderbilt 70-28—first time allowing 70 points in program history.
  • Defense surrendered 40.7 PPG (135th of 136 FBS teams).
  • Nine-game losing streak to finish.
  • Only win: FCS Murray State.

The Hue Jackson hire told the story.

  • McGee promoted the 0-16 Browns architect (3-36-1 NFL record) to offensive coordinator after Grambling State fired him for “lack of transparency, coordination, and collaboration.”
  • The results: 21.1 PPG, 114th nationally.
  • Lost finale 10-27 at Old Dominion.

McGee’s Georgia State tenure has never held an opponent under 21 points.

  • Not once in 24 games.
  • He’s now 4-20 as a head coach at a program that made four bowls in five years before he arrived.
  • The “four Cs”, connected, competitive, committed, and composure, remain talking points.
  • Results remain absent.

AD Charlie Cobb hasn’t addressed McGee’s future publicly.

  • The program averaged 11,000 fans at Center Parc Stadium – when they showed up.
  • Year 3 brings no relief: at Georgia Tech, at LSU, at Miami on the non-conference slate.
  • Position coaching excellence doesn’t automatically translate to program building.
  • Georgia State is learning that lesson at considerable cost.

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From Hot Seat to Playoff Hunt: How FSU and Virginia Went From College Football’s Biggest Disasters to Undefeated Juggernauts in One Season

Mark Haines on September 26, 2025

Friday Night Lights in Charlottesville
#8 Florida State (3-0) at Virginia (3-1)
Scott Stadium, Charlottesville, VA
Friday, September 26, 2025 – 7:00 PM ET

The Storylines

Florida State: From Disaster to Dynasty (Again)

The Seminoles have authored one of the most remarkable turnarounds in recent college football history. After a catastrophic 2-10 season in 2024 that saw them get outgained by 115.6 yards per game and score just 270.3 yards of total offense per contest, FSU has exploded onto the scene in 2025.

2025 Statistical Dominance:

  • 628.7 yards per game of total offense (+358.4 from 2024!)
  • 248.0 yards allowed per game on defense (-137.9 improvement)
  • +380.7 yard differential per game (a staggering +496.3 swing from 2024)
  • 363.0 rushing yards per game (up from an anemic 89.9 in 2024)

The Seminoles announced their arrival with a stunning 31-17 victory over #8 Alabama in the season opener, then followed with dominant blowouts of East Texas A&M (77-3) and Kent State (66-10). This is a program that has found its identity again after losing it completely in 2024.

Virginia: Tony Elliott Finally Breaks Through

Cavaliers head coach Tony Elliott entered 2025 as high as #7 on coaching hot seat rankings after years of mediocrity in Charlottesville. Four games into the season, he’s likely secured his job for years to come with an equally impressive transformation.

Virginia’s Renaissance:

  • 564.5 yards per game of total offense (up 56% from 360.9 in 2024)
  • 313.5 yards allowed per game (-23% improvement from 408.3)
  • +251.0 yard differential per game (up from -47.4 in 2024)
  • 251.5 rushing yards per game (+91% improvement from 131.9)

Elliott’s squad has posted signature wins over Coastal Carolina (48-7), William & Mary (55-16), and Stanford (48-20), with their only loss coming in a competitive 31-35 defeat to NC State.

Key Matchup Battles

Rushing Attacks vs. Run Defenses

This could be the decisive factor. Both teams have transformed their ground games into elite units:

  • FSU Rushing (363.0 ypg) vs UVA Rush Defense (100.3 ypg allowed)
  • UVA Rushing (251.5 ypg) vs FSU Rush Defense (78.3 ypg allowed)

Florida State’s rushing explosion has been the key to their offensive transformation, while Virginia has found a balanced attack that keeps defenses honest. However, FSU’s run defense has been even more dominant, allowing just 78.3 yards per game.

Quarterback Play

Florida State appears to have solved their 2024 quarterback carousel that featured struggling performances from D.J. Uiagalelei, Brock Glenn, and Luke Kromenhoek. The 2025 passing efficiency (70.7% completion rate, 265.7 ypg) suggests they’ve found their answer.

Virginia’s Anthony Colandrea has taken a massive step forward from his inconsistent 2024 (61.9% completion, 13 TD/11 INT) to become a precise, efficient leader (67.8% completion rate, 313.0 ypg).

Explosive Play Potential

Both offenses are now averaging over 7.0 yards per play (FSU: 8.9, UVA: 7.2), a massive increase from their 2024 struggles. The team that creates more explosive plays will likely control this high-scoring affair.

What’s At Stake

For Florida State

  • Undefeated season and potential playoff positioning
  • National credibility after the 2024 embarrassment
  • ACC Championship aspirations in their first year back to form
  • Momentum heading into the meat of their ACC schedule

For Virginia

  • Program validation under Tony Elliott’s leadership
  • ACC relevance for the first time in years
  • Upset potential against a ranked opponent at home
  • Continued hot seat relief for Elliott with a signature win

For Both Programs

This game represents the collision of two remarkable coaching turnarounds. Both Mike Norvell at FSU and Tony Elliott at UVA were facing serious questions about their futures just months ago. Now they’re leading two of the most improved teams in college football.

The Prediction

Florida State 38, Virginia 28

This should be an instant classic between two explosive offenses. FSU’s slightly more dominant statistical profile and their experience against elite competition (Alabama) give them the edge. Still, Virginia’s home field advantage and newfound confidence make this much closer than the rankings suggest.

Expect a track meet with over 1,100 total yards of offense between these two teams. The difference will likely come down to a few explosive plays and which team can get a crucial stop when needed.

Keys to Victory:

  • FSU: Establish the rushing attack early and force Virginia into a one-dimensional passing game
  • UVA: Use home crowd energy to create early momentum and keep pace in what should be a high-scoring affair

Both programs have gone from coaching hot seats to legitimate contenders in remarkable fashion. Tonight’s winner takes a massive step toward ACC Championship contention.

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Florida State Football: Redemption or Rebuilding in 2025?

Mark Haines on February 26, 2025

Florida State Football stands at its most critical crossroads in recent memory.

What happened to the Seminoles might be the most dramatic year-to-year collapse in college football history—going from ACC Champions with a 13-1 record to a disastrous 2-10 campaign that left head coach Mike Norvell squarely on the hot seat despite his massive contract.

But the real story isn’t just about wins and losses. It’s about something far more fundamental to college football: culture.

The Collapse: What Actually Happened in 2024?

The 2024 season was nothing short of a nightmare for Florida State Football fans.

They watched helplessly as their once-dominant Florida State Football team plummeted from College Football Playoff contender to becoming the laughingstock of the ACC, and several alarming factors contributed to this historic fall:

  • Mass Exodus of Talent: FSU lost 10 of its 13 most valuable players from the 2023 squad, including star quarterback Jordan Travis, and key receivers Johnny Wilson and Keon Coleman
  • Quarterback Carousel: The Seminoles cycled through three different quarterbacks (D.J. Uiagalelei, Brock Glenn, and Luke Kromenhoek), none of whom could effectively lead the offense
  • Statistical Free Fall: The offense dropped from 13th nationally in scoring (35.5 PPG) to 124th (15.3 PPG), while the defense went from elite to mediocre
  • Running Game Collapse: FSU’s rushing attack averaged a pathetic 2.9 yards per carry and just 89.9 yards per game, down dramatically from 4.5 YPC and 150.2 YPG in 2023

But these symptoms masked a deeper, more fundamental issue.

The Culture Crisis: Norvell’s Catastrophic Failure

At the heart of Florida State’s stunning collapse lies something that transcends X’s and O’s, roster management, or recruiting rankings.

Mike Norvell committed perhaps the most significant coaching sin possible in college football: he failed to cultivate what it means to be a Seminole—making his 2024 performance arguably one of the worst coaching jobs in recent FBS history.

  • The Identity Crisis: Being a “Seminole” has historically carried deep meaning, representing not just wearing the uniform but embodying the traditions, pride, and connection to the university community
  • Transactional Approach: Norvell treated the roster as a collection of interchangeable parts rather than cultivating a cohesive team identity, undermining the very foundation of program success
  • Transfer Portal Trap: His heavy reliance on the transfer portal created a team of players with no institutional knowledge, limited understanding of the program’s traditions, and little emotional investment
  • Missing the “Why”: While Norvell acknowledged his team lacked “edge,” this diagnosis completely misses the point—the problem isn’t competitive intensity but a deeper disconnect from the purpose behind Florida State football

“The importance of team passion and school allegiance in college football cannot be understated. You are a ‘Seminole’ and a huge part of the university community. Norvell is ignoring these factors and is looking for an ‘edge’ — focusing on creating a sense of urgency.”

Players who understand they’re part of something larger than themselves—representing their university, alumni, and community—find motivation that transcends schemes or individual stats.

Norvell never established this fundamental truth.

Norvell’s failure to address these fundamental cultural issues resulted in one of the worst coaching performances in recent FBS history.

Norvell’s Response: Wholesale Changes (But Is It Enough?)

In 2025, Mike Norvell faced the most intense scrutiny of his career and coaching for his professional life. He has implemented dramatic changes across the program.

Coaching Staff Overhaul

Norvell has completely revamped his coaching staff with high-profile additions:

  • Former UCF head coach Gus Malzahn as offensive coordinator
  • Tony White from Nebraska as defensive coordinator
  • Several additional assistants from UCF and Nebraska with previous connections

This represents a significant shift from 2024.

Transfer Portal Revolution

The Seminoles have been among the most active teams in the transfer portal, bringing in 16 transfers that currently rank nationally as the No. 5 transfer class.

Most notably, FSU has added four potential starters on the offensive line, addressing their most glaring weakness in 2024.

But this approach raises a critical question: Is Norvell doubling down on the very strategy that contributed to the culture breakdown in the first place?

The Contract Situation: A Fascinating Financial Tangle

Despite the disastrous 2024 season, Norvell remains in place with one of college football’s most interesting contract situations.

  • Massive Buyout: Norvell’s contract runs through 2031 with a staggering $54.4 million buyout if terminated after the 2025 season
  • Financial Commitment: In an unusual move, Norvell is contributing $4.5 million of his 2025 salary to launch FSU’s Vision of Excellence fundraising campaign
  • Performance Incentives: His contract includes an annual $750,000 bonus starting in 2026 if FSU wins at least nine games, potentially allowing him to recoup the $4.5 million over time

This financial arrangement essentially buys Norvell additional time while demonstrating his commitment to the program’s future—but money alone can’t fix a broken culture.

The 2025 Outlook: Can a Cultural Revival Save Norvell’s Job?

The 2025 season will determine whether Mike Norvell deserves to continue leading Florida State football.

Early projections suggest a potential over/under win total of 7.5 games, representing significant improvement, but might not be enough to secure Norvell’s position fully.

Keys to Success

Several critical elements will determine if Florida State can bounce back in 2025:

  • Cultural Reconnection: Norvell must invest significant time in educating new transfers and freshmen about what it truly means to be a Seminole
  • Community Integration: Creating stronger bonds between players and the broader university community, including alumni, students, and fans
  • Leadership Development: Identifying and empowering team leaders who genuinely embody Florida State values to set the standard for newcomers
  • Quarterback Development: Boston College transfer Thomas Castellanos must thrive in Malzahn’s offensive system
  • Offensive Line Resurrection: The completely rebuilt offensive line must provide dramatically better protection and run-blocking

Schedule Challenges

Florida State’s 2025 schedule is challenging. It opens with a home game against Alabama and features challenging road games against Clemson, NC State, and Florida.

The Seminoles must navigate this schedule successfully to approach the 8-9 win mark that many believe Norvell needs to secure his future.

The Bottom Line: Hot Seat Temperature

Mike Norvell enters 2025 with his coaching career hanging in the balance.

While his substantial buyout provides some job security, another disastrous season like 2024 would likely force FSU’s hand despite the financial implications.

Most observers believe Norvell needs at least eight wins to start cooling his seat, while 9+ wins would substantially strengthen his position.

But wins alone won’t save him—he must demonstrate a fundamental understanding of what makes Florida State football unique:

  • A deep connection to the university’s traditions
  • Players who understand the privilege of representing the Seminole community
  • A team that plays with both technical excellence and passionate pride

The dramatic roster and coaching staff overhaul represents a high-risk, high-reward approach that will either accelerate FSU’s return to prominence or hasten Norvell’s departure.

For Florida State fans, 2025 will reveal whether Mike Norvell has finally realized that building a successful college football program requires more than just assembling talent—it requires building Seminoles.

One Last Thing…

Don’t miss another deep dive into college football’s most crucial storylines and program developments. Our team-by-team analysis gives you the insider perspective to understand where each program is headed in 2025 and beyond. Subscribe for free now to access our comprehensive breakdowns, exclusive hot seat rankings, and in-depth conference analysis delivered straight to your inbox. Join thousands of college football insiders who trust Coaches Hot Seat to keep them ahead of the game. Hit the link below to unlock all our premium content and never miss another update.

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