Baylor Bears vs. Utah Utes: Big 12 Non-Conference Clash – Deep Dive

Game Details

• Date: Saturday, September 7, 2024
• Time: 3:30 PM ET
• Venue: Rice-Eccles Stadium, Salt Lake City, UT
• TV: FOX
• Spread: Utah -14.5
• Over/Under: 54.5

The Unique Circumstance

In a scheduling quirk that exemplifies the rapidly changing landscape of college football, the Baylor Bears and Utah Utes find themselves in an unusual situation. Despite being a member of the Big 12 conference in 2024, this game will not count toward conference standings. The matchup was scheduled years ago when Utah was still part of the Pac-12, and rather than canceling the agreement when Utah joined the Big 12, both schools and the conference decided to honor the original non-conference arrangement.

This scenario provides an intriguing early-season test for both programs without the added pressure of conference implications. It also offers a unique opportunity for fans and analysts to gauge how these teams stack up against each other before their official conference clashes in future seasons.

Utah Utes (1-0)

Coaching Stability

Coach Kyle Whittingham enters his 21st season at Utah with an impressive 163-79 record (.674 winning percentage). His longevity and success have made Utah a model of consistency in college football. Whittingham’s teams are known for their physicality, strong defense, and adaptability to personnel strengths.

Coaches Hot Seat Metrics for Whittingham:

• 21 Years at Utah
• 242 Games
• 163 Wins
• 79 Losses
• 0 Ties
• .674 Winning Percentage
• 8.38 SRS (Simple Rating System)
• 0.56 SOS (Strength of Schedule)

These metrics underscore Whittingham’s consistent success and ability to compete against intense competition.

Season Opener Recap

Utah kicked off their 2024 campaign with a 49-0 victory over Southern Utah. While the scoreline was impressive, Whittingham and his staff are focusing on areas for improvement:

1. Running Game: Despite 185 rushing yards, the team fell short of their goal of 5 yards per carry.
2. Penalties: 6 penalties for 55 yards – an area targeted for cleanup.
3. Ball Security: Two interceptions and two fumbles (though recovered) are concerns.

Key Players and Developments

1. Cam Rising (QB): In his return from injury, Rising showcased his arm talent with 254 yards and 5 TDs in just one half of play. His health and performance are crucial to Utah’s success.
2. Brant Kuithe (TE): Also returning from injury, Kuithe immediately re-established his connection with Rising, hauling in 3 TD passes. His presence adds another dimension to Utah’s passing attack.
3. Dijon Stanley (RB/WR): The emergence of Stanley (3 catches, 150 yards, 2 TDs) provides Utah with a dynamic playmaker who can stress defenses in multiple ways.
4. Offensive Line: Whittingham graded their performance as a “B+” but noted room for improvement, especially in pass protection where they allowed 9 pressures.
5. Defense: Pitching a shutout and holding Southern Utah to just 150 total yards, the defense looks to be in midseason form already.

Offensive Strategy

Offensive coordinator Andy Ludwig has indicated a desire for a more balanced attack against Baylor. While the passing game excelled in the opener, establishing a consistent ground game will be a priority. The Utes will likely try to exploit Baylor’s defensive adjustments under Aranda’s new scheme.

Defensive Outlook

Utah’s defense, traditionally a strength under Whittingham, will face a stiffer test against Baylor’s revamped offense. The focus will be on containing Baylor’s dual-threat QB while not allowing big plays in the passing game.

Baylor Bears (1-0)

Coaching Hot Seat

Dave Aranda enters a pivotal season, with his seat cooling slightly but still warm. The move from #2 to #3 on the Coaches Hot Seat rankings indicates some faith in the program’s direction, but this game against Utah is a critical measuring stick.

Coaches Hot Seat Metrics for Aranda:

• 4 Years at Baylor
• 37 Games
• 20 Wins
• 17 Losses
• 0 Ties
• .541 Winning Percentage
• 5.64 SRS (Simple Rating System)
• 1.77 SOS (Strength of Schedule)

While Aranda’s overall record isn’t as strong as Whittingham’s, the higher SOS indicates Baylor has consistently faced tough competition.

Season Opener Analysis

Baylor started their 2024 campaign with a convincing 45-3 win over Tarleton State. Key takeaways include:

1. Offensive Explosion: 45 points and a balanced attack show promise in new OC Jake Spavital’s system.
2. Defensive Dominance: Holding opponents to 3 points is impressive at any level.
3. Transfer Impact: Several transfers made immediate contributions, indicating successful portal management.

Key Players and Developments

1. Dequan Finn (QB): The Toledo transfer showcased his dual-threat ability with a 39-yard TD run and efficient passing. His adaptation to Spavital’s system will be crucial.
2. Richard Reese (RB): After a down year in 2023, Reese looks to recapture his freshman form in the new offensive scheme.
3. Ketron Jackson Jr. (WR): The Arkansas transfer caught a TD in his Baylor debut, providing a new weapon in the passing game.
4. Keaton Thomas (LB): The transfer linebacker’s pick-six in the opener highlights the potential of Aranda’s “defensive weapons” concept.
5. Offensive Line: An area of concern, as they struggled to generate consistent push against Tarleton State’s defense.

Schematic Changes

1. Defense: Aranda has taken over as defensive play-caller, which could lead to more aggressive and unpredictable schemes.
2. Offense: Spavital’s “Air Raid” concepts have been integrated with Baylor’s existing system, promising a more dynamic and explosive offense.

Keys to the Game for Baylor

1. Establish the Run: Creating a balanced attack to keep Utah’s defense honest.
2. Pressure Rising: Trying to disrupt Utah’s passing game by pressuring Rising and disrupting his timing.
3. Special Teams Edge: Looking for big plays in the return game to flip field position.
4. Limit Big Plays: Preventing the explosive plays that characterized Utah’s opener.

Matchup Dynamics

1. Utah’s O-Line vs. Baylor’s Front Seven: This battle in the trenches could decide the game. If Baylor can disrupt Utah’s run game and pressure Rising, they have a chance at the upset.
2. Baylor’s Secondary vs. Utah’s Passing Attack: The Bears’ revamped secondary will be tested by Rising, Kuithe, and Utah’s emerging playmakers.
3. Coaching Chess Match: Whittingham’s established system against Aranda’s new defensive approach and Spavital’s offense. In-game adjustments will be crucial.
4. Special Teams: In what could be a closely contested game, field position and kicking game could prove decisive.
5. Home Field Advantage: Utah’s Rice-Eccles Stadium is known for its intense atmosphere, which could impact Baylor’s communication and execution.

Prediction

While Baylor shows signs of improvement and has the potential to keep this game close, Utah’s experience, home-field advantage, and the return of key playmakers give them a significant edge. Expect a competitive first half before Utah’s depth and physicality wear down the Bears in the second half.

Utah 34, Baylor 23

This non-conference Big 12 clash should provide valuable insights into both teams’ potential for the 2024 season. For Baylor, a strong showing could further cool Aranda’s hot seat, while Utah looks to make a statement in their first game against a Big 12 opponent as a conference member. Regardless of the outcome, this game sets the stage for what promises to be an exciting season in the new-look Big 12.