Blog Article

Rutgers Football 2025: The Year Everything Changes

Mark Haines on May 23, 2025

Rutgers football is about to face its biggest test since Greg Schiano returned to Piscataway.

After back-to-back 7-6 seasons and consecutive bowl appearances for the first time since 2011-12, the Scarlet Knights have built something real. But 2025 isn’t about maintaining momentum anymore. It’s about proving they belong among the Big Ten elite when the schedule stops being friendly.

The Foundation Is Strong, But Now Comes The Real Test

Most people don’t understand Rutgers’ situation: the program has quietly become one of the most stable rebuilds in college football. While everyone was focused on flashier turnarounds, Schiano methodically constructed something sustainable.

Consider these facts:

  • Three NFL draft picks in 2025 (most since 2013)
  • Consecutive winning seasons for the first time in over a decade
  • Top-30 recruiting class with 10 four-star prospects
  • Contract extension through 2030, showing institutional commitment

The foundation isn’t just solid. It’s the strongest since the mid-2000s peak that put Rutgers on the national map.

But foundations don’t win games. Players do. The 2025 schedule is about to test every brick Schiano has carefully laid.

Finally: Quarterback Stability (Yes, Really)

For the first time in recent memory, Rutgers enters a season without quarterback uncertainty haunting every conversation.

Athan Kaliakmanis will be the starter for the second consecutive year. This might not sound revolutionary until you consider the program’s recent history at the position: seven years where no QB could complete a full season, followed by Gavin Wimsatt posting the lowest passer rating among Power conference quarterbacks.

The Minnesota transfer threw for 2,698 yards with 18 touchdowns against 12 interceptions in 2024. More importantly, he showed the clutch gene with memorable late-game drives, including that thriller against Illinois.

Schiano emphasized after spring practice that Kaliakmanis “had a full season working under Coach Ciarrocca” and now has the credibility to “be a quarterback/leader that we need him to be.”

Behind him, sophomore AJ Surace impressed in the spring game with 220 yards on 15-of-24 passing. The depth that killed previous seasons finally exists.

The Offensive Line: Four Anchors, One Question Mark

The offensive line returns four battle-tested starters who helped produce 376 points (most in Rutgers’ Big Ten era):

  • #65 LG Felter
  • #59 C G. Zilinskas
  • #69 RG Asamoah
  • #56 RT Needham

The challenge? Replacing NFL-bound left tackle Hollin Pierce.

Tyler Needham has shifted to left tackle, and Taj White has moved to right tackle during spring practices. The staff continues monitoring the transfer portal for additional depth, but the interior line showed resilience when Felter fell injured in 2024.

This unit has been through fire together. They know how to handle adversity.

The Running Game Revolution

Kyle Monangai is gone, taking his 1,279 rushing yards and 13 touchdowns to the Chicago Bears.

That might be a good thing: Rutgers overused Monangai in 2024, making the offense predictable and wearing down their best weapon. Other backs like Benjamin and Brown showed superior efficiency when given opportunities, but the staff stuck with the “feed the bell cow” mentality.

Andrew Rice of On the Banks expects a complete philosophical shift. FAU transfer CJ Campbell will likely lead a committee approach featuring:

  • Antoine Raymond (returning sophomore)
  • Edd Guerrier (showed flashes in spring game)
  • Terrell Mitchell (true freshman with big-play ability)

A balanced backfield could improve overall production while keeping everyone fresh for Big Ten battles.

Receiver Room Gets Much-Needed Star Power

The departure of top target Dymere Miller created an opportunity for dramatic change.

Enter North Texas transfer DT Sheffield, who posted 822 yards and six touchdowns in 2024. He provides the veteran production and leadership that this young group desperately needed.

But the real excitement comes from emerging young talent:

  • Vernon Allen III and Jourdin Houston combined for 143 yards in the spring game
  • Ian Strong returns from injury with renewed focus
  • KJ Duff continues developing into a reliable option

This position has been Rutgers’ Achilles heel for years. The pieces are finally in place for a breakthrough.

Defense Gets Complete Makeover

October’s four-game losing streak exposed defensive weaknesses that couldn’t be ignored. Allowing 33 points per game during that stretch cost Rutgers any shot at a special season.

Schiano’s response? Blow it up and start over.

New Leadership Structure

Co-defensive coordinators Robb Smith and Zach Sparber will replace departed coordinator Joe Harasymiak. Smith will call plays, bringing extensive experience and a track record of improvement. Sparber, who also coaches linebackers, is considered a rising star in the profession.

Transfer Portal Aggressive Approach

The defensive line received the most dramatic overhaul:

  • Eric O’Neill (13 sacks at James Madison, fourth-most nationally)
  • Doug Blue-Eli (run-stuffing tackle from USF)
  • Darold DeNgohe (interior pressure from James Madison)

Combined with returning veterans Jordan Walker and Keshon Griffin, this unit should generate significantly more disruption.

Secondary Rebuilds From Scratch

Four key contributors departed, but spring practices revealed promising depth:

  • Sophomores Bo Mascoe and Kaj Sanders emerged as reliable options
  • Al-Shadee Salaam (converted RB) earned “most improved defensive player”
  • Four-star freshman Michael Clayton adds immediate talent

Recruiting Renaissance Continues

Schiano’s program building received another massive boost with a consensus top-30 recruiting class.

The numbers tell the story:

  • 10 four-star recruits across multiple positions
  • Six defensive linemen addressing the biggest need
  • Four linebackers providing depth and competition
  • Three defensive backs for the secondary rebuilding

Linebacker Kamar Archie and offensive lineman Ja’Elyne Matthews headline a class that should provide immediate impact and future starting potential.

The geographic footprint reflects Schiano’s “State of Rutgers” philosophy, emphasizing New Jersey, New York, and Pennsylvania while strategically expanding into areas like Texas.

Schedule Reality: Welcome to Hell Week (Every Week)

Every bit of optimism about roster improvements crashes into the brutal reality of the 2025 schedule.

Non-conference games against Ohio, Miami of Ohio, and Norfolk State represent Schiano’s typical approach of building early momentum. He’s unbeaten in non-conference play since returning in 2020, and these three games must continue that streak.

But conference play? That’s where things get terrifying.

The Gauntlet Includes:

  • Oregon (road)
  • Ohio State (road)
  • Penn State (home)
  • Iowa (home)
  • Illinois (road)
  • Washington (road)
  • Minnesota (road)

Back-to-back road games against Minnesota and Washington will test depth and resilience. Even the “easier” road game at Purdue is uncertain with Purdue under new coaching.

The season opens Thursday, Aug. 28, against Ohio, continuing the trend of Thursday night season openers. Early betting lines have Rutgers as double-digit favorites, suggesting confidence in the non-conference sweep.

Coaching Security Provides Stability

Despite the challenging outlook, Schiano’s position remains completely secure.

His contract extension through 2030 and the program’s clear upward trajectory since 2020 provide stability even if 2025 proves difficult. National analysts note that Schiano has “steadily built the program to respectability in the Big Ten” and receives too little credit for his work.

The NFL pipeline continues strengthening recruiting credibility and program prestige. When recruits see former teammates succeeding at the next level, it validates the development process.

Keys to Survival (And Maybe Success)

Rutgers must approach 2025 with surgical precision in their preparation and execution.

Non-Conference Perfection Required: All three early games represent must-wins. Any slip-up eliminates bowl eligibility hopes before Big Ten play begins.

Identify Winnable Conference Games: Purdue and Maryland offer the most realistic paths to additional victories. Minnesota and Illinois represent upset potential if everything clicks.

Defensive Coordinator Chemistry: The Smith-Sparber tandem must quickly implement systems that maximize transfer talent while developing young players. The emphasis on rotation should prevent the fatigue-related dropoffs that plagued 2024.

Offensive Balance Finally Achieved: Establishing a more balanced attack takes pressure off the running game against stronger Big Ten defenses. Kaliakmanis’s continued development and emerging receiving threats could unlock explosive potential.

The Verdict: Foundation Testing Time

Projections suggest a 4-8 record, but that reflects schedule difficulty rather than program regression.

Bowl eligibility requires overachievement and likely at least one signature upset. However, Schiano’s foundation appears stronger than at any point since the mid-2000s peak.

Here’s what 2025 is really about: proving Rutgers can compete consistently against elite competition. Avoiding blowout losses and remaining competitive in most games demonstrates readiness for sustained success when future schedules prove more favorable.

Success Metrics Beyond Wins and Losses

The coaching staff’s aggressive approach to roster construction through recruiting and transfers shows a commitment to accelerating development rather than accepting mediocrity.

Competitive games against Oregon and Ohio State might prove more valuable than an extra victory against inferior competition. The schedule provides an opportunity to prove belonging among Big Ten elites, even if the record doesn’t immediately reflect that progress.

For Rutgers faithful, this is the year everything changes.

The program has reached its highest sustained level since joining the Big Ten. The next step requires navigating the conference’s toughest opponents with a roster still building toward championship-level depth.

The foundation is strong, but 2025 will test whether it can withstand the full weight of Big Ten expectations.

Get ready for the most important season in Greg Schiano’s second tenure.

The Next Billion Dollar Game

College football isn’t just a sport anymore—it’s a high-stakes market where information asymmetry separates winners from losers. While the average fan sees only what happens between the sidelines, real insiders trade on the hidden dynamics reshaping programs from the inside out.

Our team has embedded with the power brokers who run this game. From the coaching carousel to NIL deals to transfer portal strategies, we’ve mapped the entire ecosystem with the kind of obsessive detail that would make a hedge fund analyst blush.

Why subscribe? Because in markets this inefficient, information creates alpha. Our subscribers knew which coaches were dead men walking months before the mainstream media caught on. They understood which programs were quietly transforming their recruiting apparatuses while competitors slept.

The smart money is already positioning for 2025. Are you?

Click below—it’s free—and join the small group of people who understand the real value of college football’s new economy.

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MARYLAND FOOTBALL 2025 PREVIEW: LOCKSLEY’S PIVOTAL SEASON

Mark Haines on May 22, 2025

Mike Locksley is officially on the hot seat.

After a disastrous 4-8 season in 2024, Maryland’s head coach enters the most pivotal year of his career with everything on the line. The program stands at a crossroads that could determine the next half-decade of Terps football.

But here’s the crazy part: despite last year’s collapse, all the ingredients for a dramatic turnaround are sitting right there on the table:

  • A shockingly favorable 2025 schedule (no Ohio State, Penn State, or Oregon)
  • An aggressive transfer portal haul addresses immediate needs
  • One of the program’s strongest recruiting classes in recent memory
  • New coordinator hires bringing legitimate NFL coaching pedigree

The question isn’t whether Maryland has the pieces to turn things around. The question is whether they can execute when it matters most.

Let’s Talk About What Went Horribly Wrong in 2024

Maryland’s 2024 season was Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde.

The Terps kicked things off looking like legitimate Big Ten contenders, rattling off three non-conference victories against UConn, Virginia, and Villanova.

Then came conference play, and the implosion was breathtaking:

  • A single Big Ten win (a narrow USC upset) against seven losses
  • Most conference defeats coming by double-digit margins
  • A humiliating 44-7 season-ending beatdown at Penn State

What made 2024 so frustrating was that Maryland actually excelled in one crucial area: the passing game. The Terps’ aerial attack ranked 13th nationally (275.7 yards per game), with Tai Felton emerging as a legitimate #1 receiver (1,124 yards, 9 TDs).

But this success masked fatal flaws that doomed the season:

  • A non-existent rushing attack (110.6 yards per game, 112th nationally)
  • A defense that leaked points (30.4 per game)
  • An inability to pressure opposing QBs (131st of 134 FBS teams in sack rate)
  • Turnover issues (-3 margin, 102nd nationally)

The result? Maryland’s worst record since 2019, and Locksley’s seat is heating to near-combustible levels.

The Great Roster Reset Is Unprecedented

The aftermath of 2024 triggered a mass exodus unlike anything we’ve seen in College Park.

Twenty-one players fled to the transfer portal—one of the highest totals in the country. Think about that. Nearly two dozen scholarship athletes decided they’d rather play football anywhere else than return to Maryland.

Key departures included:

  • Starting QB Billy Edwards Jr.
  • RB Roman Hemby
  • WRs Kaden Prather and Tai Felton
  • LB Kellan Wyatt

But instead of wallowing, Locksley made his career’s most aggressive portal moves. He brought in 16+ transfers targeting immediate needs:

  • QB Room Reconstruction: Justyn Martin (UCLA) and MJ Morris (Coastal Carolina)
  • New Receiving Corps: Jalil Farooq (Oklahoma), Kaleb Webb (Tennessee), Jordan Scott (Florida State)
  • O-Line Reinforcements: Multiple additions including Carlos Moore Jr. (Elon), Marcus Dumervil (Arkansas)
  • Defensive Upgrades: Joel Starlings (North Carolina), Sedrick Smith (Alabama A&M)

This isn’t just tweaking the roster. This is a complete teardown and rebuild in a single offseason.

“As I’ve learned with the new landscape we’re in, you don’t have time to develop,” Locksley admitted at spring media day, officially abandoning his previous “developmental program” philosophy.

Translation: Win now or clean out your office.

Recruiting Is Somehow Red-Hot Despite the On-Field Disaster

Here’s the weirdest part of the Maryland football story.

Despite the program seemingly crumbling on the field, Locksley still wins major recruiting battles. The 2025 class ranks 25th nationally—incredibly impressive for a team that just went 4-8.

Two blue-chip recruits stand out as potential immediate difference-makers:

  1. Malik Washington (QB): The 6’4″, 215-pound Archbishop Spalding product is the 54th-ranked recruit nationally. With a cannon arm and dual-threat capabilities, it wouldn’t be shocking to see him under center in Week 1.
  2. Zahir Mathis (EDGE): The biggest recruiting win of Locksley’s career. The former Ohio State commit chose Maryland on National Signing Day, giving the Terps a 6’6″ edge rusher with a wingspan approaching 6’10”.

The 2025 class includes seven ESPN 300 players—the most in program history—and Maryland locked down 14 in-state prospects.

The talent pipeline hasn’t dried up. If anything, it’s flowing stronger than ever, creating a bizarre disconnect between recruiting rankings and on-field results.

This recruiting momentum offers Locksley a compelling argument for keeping his job: “I’m still bringing in the talent to turn this around.”

The 2025 Schedule Is a Gift from the Football Gods

If you were designing a bounce-back schedule for a coach on the hot seat, it would look exactly like Maryland’s 2025 slate.

Non-Conference (3 games):

  • Aug. 30: vs. Florida Atlantic
  • Sept. 6: vs. Northern Illinois
  • Sept. 13: vs. Towson

Big Ten (9 games):

  • Sept. 20: at Wisconsin
  • Oct. 4: vs. Washington
  • Oct. 11: vs. Nebraska
  • Oct. 18: at UCLA
  • Nov. 1: vs. Indiana
  • Nov. 8: at Rutgers
  • Nov. 15: at Illinois
  • Nov. 22: vs. Michigan
  • Nov. 29: at Michigan State

The schedule gods blessed Maryland with:

  • No Ohio State
  • No Penn State
  • No Oregon
  • No USC
  • Three extremely winnable non-conference home games
  • Multiple winnable Big Ten matchups (Rutgers, Illinois, Indiana)

Let’s be clear: if Maryland doesn’t reach bowl eligibility with this schedule, Locksley will update his resume on December 1st.

The path to six wins is right there. The opening non-conference stretch should yield three victories. After that, the Terps need three conference wins from games against Indiana, Rutgers, Illinois, and Michigan State.

This isn’t just a favorable schedule. It’s a lifeline thrown to a drowning program.

The QB Battle Will Define Everything

The most fascinating storyline of Maryland’s 2025 season is unfolding right now.

After losing their top three quarterbacks to the transfer portal, the Terps will feature a QB competition between two players who’ve barely seen collegiate action:

  1. Justyn Martin – The UCLA transfer brings the pedigree of a Power 5 program but has just one career start.
  2. Malik Washington – The true freshman phenom arrives with sky-high expectations as the 54th-ranked recruit nationally.

New offensive coordinator Pep Hamilton (who has coached Justin Herbert, C.J. Stroud, and Andrew Luck in the NFL) will make the final call. He’s already raving about Washington’s “elite traits” and “photographic memory,” which suggests the freshman has a legitimate shot at starting from Day 1.

Don’t underestimate what getting the quarterback position right would mean for this program. Maryland’s passing game was already among the top-15 nationally last year, but its quarterback play was inconsistent. With the right signal-caller, this offense could explode.

Whether it’s Martin’s experience or Washington’s raw talent, the winner of this competition inherits an offense that can move the ball effectively with competent leadership.

The NFL-ification of Maryland’s Coaching Staff

Locksley is making one final, bold bet: bringing NFL coaching expertise to College Park.

He’s completely revamped his staff with a focus on professional pedigree, particularly with his two new coordinators, who bring a combined 31 years of NFL coaching experience:

  • Offensive Coordinator Pep Hamilton: Developed NFL QBs Justin Herbert, C.J. Stroud, and Andrew Luck
  • Defensive Coordinator Ted Monachino: Extensive pro coaching background, including with the Baltimore Ravens

This pivot toward an NFL coaching model makes perfect sense for two reasons:

  1. It’s a direct response to the transfer portal era—players want coaches who can prepare them for the pros
  2. It signals to recruits that Maryland is committed to development at the highest level

It’s also a calculated gamble that more experienced, professionally-oriented coaches can accelerate player development fast enough to save Locksley’s job.

“The whining and complaining [about the new era of college sports], those are excuses,” inside linebackers coach Zac Spavital said this spring, summarizing the staff’s no-nonsense approach.

Let’s Talk About That Flaming Hot Seat

There’s no way to sugarcoat this.

Mike Locksley enters 2025 with his coaching future hanging by a thread. After posting a 4-8 record in 2024, multiple national outlets have identified him as one of the coaches most likely to get fired if results don’t improve dramatically.

The stats tell a damning story:

  • 33-41 overall record at Maryland
  • Zero finishes in the Big Ten top half
  • A disastrous regression after back-to-back bowl seasons

USA Today recently ranked Locksley 16th among Big Ten coaches, noting that last season’s “4-8 finish was a major step back after Maryland had made three bowl games in a row.”

The prevailing consensus among college football insiders? Maryland needs at least 7-8 wins in 2025 for Locksley to keep his job.

Currently in the seventh year of his contract (which runs through 2026), Locksley’s recruiting prowess has bought him time. But at some point, recruiting rankings need to translate to wins, and that point is now.

So What Actually Happens in 2025?

Projections for Maryland’s season break down into three distinct camps:

The Optimists: Some believe an eight-win season is genuinely attainable given:

  • The favorable schedule
  • The talent influx through recruiting
  • The transfer portal reinforcements
  • The upgraded coaching staff

The Pessimists: Others warn that even with the softer schedule, another sub-.500 season remains possible if:

  • The quarterback situation doesn’t stabilize
  • The defense continues its struggles
  • The roster overhaul creates chemistry issues
  • The coaching changes don’t translate to immediate improvement

The Realists: Most early previews peg Maryland for a 6-6 season with the potential to reach 7-5 if they win their toss-up games.

For the Terps to exceed these modest expectations, four things must happen:

  1. The transfer haul must make an immediate impact
  2. Either Martin or Washington must provide stability at quarterback
  3. The defense (particularly the pass rush) must show dramatic improvement
  4. Maryland must capitalize on its favorable non-conference slate

The 2025 season is Locksley’s last stand.

He’s abandoned his “The Best is Ahead” slogan in favor of a “win now” approach that acknowledges the moment’s urgency. With a favorable schedule, improved talent, and a coaching staff built for immediate results, the opportunity for a breakthrough exists.

The only question is whether Maryland can finally deliver when it matters most.

The Next Billion Dollar Game

College football isn’t just a sport anymore—it’s a high-stakes market where information asymmetry separates winners from losers. While the average fan sees only what happens between the sidelines, real insiders trade on the hidden dynamics reshaping programs from the inside out.

Our team has embedded with the power brokers who run this game. From the coaching carousel to NIL deals to transfer portal strategies, we’ve mapped the entire ecosystem with the kind of obsessive detail that would make a hedge fund analyst blush.

Why subscribe? Because in markets this inefficient, information creates alpha. Our subscribers knew which coaches were dead men walking months before the mainstream media caught on. They understood which programs were quietly transforming their recruiting apparatuses while competitors slept.

The smart money is already positioning for 2025. Are you?

Click below—it’s free—and join the small group of people who understand the real value of college football’s new economy.

Free Subscription
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Wisconsin Badgers Football 2025: The Margin Is Gone

Mark Haines on May 21, 2025

No more excuses.

No more grace period.

For the Wisconsin Badgers, the 2025 season is now or never.

What Happened in 2024 Was Not Just a Blip

It was a gut punch.

They have a 5–7 record, a loss to Minnesota that cost them Paul Bunyan’s Axe, a home finale in which the offense put up 166 total yards, and no bowl game for the first time since 2001.

And yet, that wasn’t the worst part.

The worst part was how lifeless the team looked.

  • An offense that didn’t know what it wanted to be
  • A defense that forced only 8 turnovers all season
  • A coaching staff caught between systems, identities, and ideologies

Head coach Luke Fickell, once viewed as the program’s savior, finished his second year at 13–13. The Air Raid experiment with Phil Longo flamed out quickly.

The Offseason Was an Admission of Failure

To Fickell’s credit, he owned it.

Out went Longo. In came Jeff Grimes, the former Baylor offensive coordinator, who brought back a pro-style, wide-zone identity that actually fits Wisconsin football.

The quarterback room was wiped clean.

  • Billy Edwards Jr. transferred in from Maryland
  • Danny O’Neil followed from San Diego State

At receiver:

  • Jayden Ballard (Ohio State) brings elite athleticism
  • Mark Hamper (Idaho) offers size and production

Tight end?

  • Lance Mason from Missouri State—34 catches, 590 yards, 6 TDs

And on the line:

  • Davis Heinzen, a 36-game starter at Central Michigan, will plug the left tackle hole left by the spring injury to Kevin Heywood

It wasn’t a complete rebuild. It was a targeted reset.

But targeted doesn’t always mean successful.

The Defense: Still Searching for a Pulse

The numbers don’t lie.

  • 342.7 yards allowed per game
  • Just 17 sacks across 12 games
  • Only 4 interceptions total

Worse, Wisconsin gave up 42+ points to Alabama, USC, and Iowa. And they were outscored 72–15 in the fourth quarter of their seven losses.

If you’re looking for toughness, this defense didn’t show it.

Fickell and DC Mike Tressel are betting on a fresh rotation up front:

  • Charles Perkins, Corey Parker, Reiger, and others from the portal
  • Preston Zachman and Ricardo Hallman return in the secondary

Still, depth is shaky. And losing freshman phenom Xavier Lucas (to Miami) hurts badly.

There are no proven pass rushers. No alpha presence. And no clear identity.

The Transfer Portal Wasn’t Just Busy. It Was Chaos.

Wisconsin signed the No. 14 portal class nationally, No. 3 in the Big Ten.

That sounds good—until you realize the talent out was arguably better than the talent in.

  • Out: RB Tawee Walker (Cincinnati), WR Will Pauling (Notre Dame), CB Xavier Lucas (Miami), TE Tanner Koziol (Houston)
  • In: Players from Maryland, Idaho, Purdue, Missouri State, Central Michigan

None of Wisconsin’s incoming transfers made ESPN’s top 100. Two of the players who left did.

This isn’t reloading. This is plugging holes in a leaky boat.

And that boat is headed straight into a hurricane.

The Schedule Is a Nightmare

And this is where it gets ugly.

Wisconsin’s 2025 schedule might be the toughest in school history:

  • Road games: Alabama, Michigan, Oregon
  • Home games: Ohio State, Iowa, Washington, Illinois

According to SP+, nine of their opponents rank in the top 40, seven in the top 25, four in the top 13, and three in the top six.

Vegas has the win total at 5.5.

Let that sink in.

This is Wisconsin. A program that expects 9+ wins. Now projected to struggle for bowl eligibility.

And if the season gets off to a slow start?

It could snowball fast.

Where Are the Bright Spots?

There are some.

  • Riley Mahlman (RT) and Jake Renfro (C) anchor the offensive line
  • Nathanial Vakos is a steady presence at kicker (100% XP, 63% FG)
  • The offensive scheme will fit the roster better

The new staff wants to run the ball more effectively and control the clock. Reducing time on the field should help the defense.

And if Billy Edwards Jr. can be average to good, the offense might find rhythm.

If the offense can avoid turnovers and red zone disasters, this team could grind out six or seven wins.

But the Cracks Are Still There

  • Offensive line depth is dangerously thin
  • Running back depth behind Jackson Acker is unproven
  • The receiving corps is untested, mainly at the Power Five level
  • The defense has no clear game-changers
  • Chemistry could be a mess with 15+ new transfers

And let’s not forget the coaching carousel:

  • New OC
  • New offensive line coach
  • New tight ends coach
  • Multiple defensive staff shuffles

You don’t need all these issues to explode—just a few.

And with the margin of error gone, a few is all it takes.

The Verdict: This Is a Career-Defining Year for Luke Fickell

Brandon Marcello of CBS Sports said it best: “It’s bowl game or bust for Fickell. Anything less is probably not enough to keep him in Madison.”

He’s right.

Fickell was hired to modernize Wisconsin football. Instead, he misfired, blew up the offensive identity, and lost to all three border rivals in 2024.

Now, with a schedule from hell and a roster full of questions, he has to produce.

He has to win.

Because if he doesn’t?

Wisconsin becomes a cautionary tale.

Not of a program that tried and failed.

But of one that lost what made it special—and didn’t realize it until it was too late.

The margin is gone.

And this season will decide everything.

The Next Billion Dollar Game

College football isn’t just a sport anymore—it’s a high-stakes market where information asymmetry separates winners from losers. While the average fan sees only what happens between the sidelines, real insiders trade on the hidden dynamics reshaping programs from the inside out.

Our team has embedded with the power brokers who run this game. From the coaching carousel to NIL deals to transfer portal strategies, we’ve mapped the entire ecosystem with the kind of obsessive detail that would make a hedge fund analyst blush.

Why subscribe? Because in markets this inefficient, information creates alpha. Our subscribers knew which coaches were dead men walking months before the mainstream media caught on. They understood which programs were quietly transforming their recruiting apparatuses while competitors slept.

The smart money is already positioning for 2025. Are you?

Click below—it’s free—and join the small group of people who understand the real value of college football’s new economy.

Free Subscription
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Michigan football stands at a critical turning point that will define the program’s trajectory for years.

Mark Haines on May 20, 2025

As spring practice concludes in Ann Arbor, the Michigan Wolverines find themselves at a fascinating crossroads.

Following a rollercoaster 2024 campaign that ended with an 8-5 record, second-year head coach Sherrone Moore faces the challenge of recapturing the program’s championship form while integrating a wealth of new talent and implementing significant schematic changes.

The 2024 season will be remembered as a tale of two halves:

  • A disappointing 5-5 start that had fans questioning the program’s direction
  • Stunning upsets over No. 2 Ohio State (13-10) and No. 11 Alabama (19-13) to close the year
  • Michigan is the only program to defeat Alabama twice in one calendar year
  • A late-season surge that injected renewed optimism into a program that had struggled with consistency

These dramatic season-ending victories completely transformed the narrative around Michigan football heading into 2025.

Michigan’s 2025 campaign will hinge on how quickly the offense can develop around its new quarterback and whether the defense can maintain its late-2024 form. The program’s trajectory remains positive, but the margin for error in a tougher Big Ten is slim.

Have you ever seen a program pin its entire hopes on the shoulders of an 18-year-old quarterback?

All eyes in Ann Arbor are fixed on five-star freshman quarterback Bryce Underwood, the No. 1 overall recruit in the 2025 class and the highest-rated signee in Michigan history.

Underwood’s arrival represents both immense opportunity and significant pressure. The dual-threat signal-caller is widely expected to start immediately despite his youth. His elite talent brings an electricity to Michigan that the program desperately needs after a disappointing offensive showing in 2024.

What makes Underwood’s situation different from other freshman quarterbacks?

  • He joins a program just one year removed from a national championship
  • Michigan’s passing attack ranked a dismal 131st nationally in 2024 (129.1 yards per game)
  • Experienced transfer Mikey Keene (Fresno State/UCF) provides insurance and mentorship
  • Most analysts expect Underwood to win the starting job immediately

“The quarterback situation is widely viewed as the key to Michigan’s 2025 ceiling,” according to the program’s internal analysis. “If Underwood adapts quickly and the offense improves, Michigan could contend for a Big Ten title and a playoff spot.”

Rarely has a true freshman quarterback shouldered such immediate expectations at a blue-blood program.

Michigan’s offense underwent a complete metamorphosis following one of the worst passing attacks in program history.

The offensive struggles that plagued Michigan in 2024 (113th nationally in scoring at 22.0 points per game) prompted significant changes, beginning with the arrival of new offensive coordinator Chip Lindsey from North Carolina.

Lindsey’s arrival marks a philosophical shift in Ann Arbor. His track record shows a commitment to balanced, explosive attacks. His 2023 UNC offense was one of only two nationally to average at least 290 passing yards and 190 rushing yards per game, showcasing his ability to create dynamic, unpredictable offensive systems.

The early returns from spring practice are promising:

  • Sophomore receiver Semaj Morgan called the new system “night and day” compared to last year’s approach
  • The new scheme emphasizes more wide receiver sets instead of heavy, predictable formations
  • Greater route diversity and vertical passing concepts create more explosive play opportunities
  • Running backs will be more involved in the passing game, creating mismatches

Supporting the passing game renaissance are new weapons with size and athleticism:

  • 6-5 freshman Jamar Browder brings contested-catch ability
  • Indiana transfer Donovan McCulley (also 6-5) adds experienced size
  • Jordan Marshall (who starred in the Alabama bowl victory) returns in the backfield
  • Alabama transfer Justice Haynes joins to form a powerful one-two punch at running back

While returning experienced pieces like Giovanni El-Hadi, the offensive line must improve its consistency to protect Underwood and establish the physical run game that remains central to Michigan’s identity.

Five-star freshman Andrew Babalola and borderline five-star Ty Haywood could push for early playing time and inject immediate talent into this critical unit.

While the offense rebuilds, Michigan’s defense remains the program’s unshakeable foundation.

While the offense undergoes reconstruction, Michigan’s defense is poised to remain among the nation’s elite.

The 2024 unit allowed just 19.9 points per game (4th nationally) and held opponents to 3.1 yards per rush, showcasing the physical, suffocating style that has become the program’s calling card. Wink Martindale returns for his second season as defensive coordinator after engineering late-season masterpieces against Ohio State and Alabama that saved Michigan’s season.

What makes this defense special despite losing key pieces to the NFL?

  • The front seven projects to be especially formidable with returning stalwarts Rayshaun Benny, Derrick Moore, Jaishawn Barham, and Ernest Hausmann
  • Despite losing unanimous All-American Mason Graham, the defensive line boasts significant depth and talent.
  • While younger and less experienced, the secondary will rely on developing stars and incoming freshmen like four-star signees Shamari Earls, Elijah Dotson, and Kainoa Winston.
  • Coaching continuity in Martindale’s NFL-derived scheme provides a critical foundation.

Michigan’s defensive identity perfectly complements the program’s physical ethos and should keep the Wolverines competitive even through potential offensive growing pains early in the season.

The defense isn’t just good—it’s championship caliber.

Never underestimate the impact of elite special teams in a season defined by tight margins.

Michigan’s special teams unit, anchored by returning All-American kicker Dominic Zvada, is often overlooked but is critically important to its success.

In 2024, Zvada converted an exceptional 21 of 22 field goals (95.5%) and 26 of 27 extra points (96.3%), providing reliability in close games and a consistent weapon when the offense stalled in the red zone. His clutch performances in the Ohio State and Alabama victories underscored his value to the program.

Beyond the kicking game, Michigan’s special teams provide additional advantages:

  • The return game features explosive options in sophomores Semaj Morgan and Jordan Marshall
  • These playmakers add another dimension to Michigan’s ability to flip field position
  • Strong special teams can create scoring opportunities when the offense struggles
  • In a conference with narrow margins, special teams excellence can be the difference between victory and defeat

Michigan’s emphasis on special teams excellence reflects the program’s attention to detail and commitment to winning in all three game phases.

The 2025 schedule presents a gauntlet that would challenge even the most experienced teams.

Any assessment of Michigan’s 2025 outlook must account for a challenging schedule that offers few reprieves.

Early road tests at Oklahoma (September 6) and Nebraska (September 20) will immediately test Underwood’s development and the team’s ability to execute in hostile environments. The conference slate includes road games at USC and Michigan State, home contests against Washington and a season finale with archrival Ohio State.

What makes this schedule particularly daunting:

  • No consecutive home games appear anywhere on the schedule
  • The constant home/away alternation complicates recovery and momentum
  • Early road tests come before the team has fully established its identity
  • Four of Michigan’s opponents are projected preseason top 25 teams
  • The Ohio State finale comes after a long, grueling season

CBS Sports projects an 8-4 record for the Wolverines, citing roster turnover and the difficult schedule as primary factors. This conservative projection reflects the reality that even talented teams often struggle with consistency when facing elite competition week after week.

Navigating this schedule successfully would validate Michigan’s talent and coaching in a way that would resonate nationally.

For Coach Sherrone Moore, 2025 isn’t just another season—it’s the ultimate referendum on his leadership.

For Coach Sherrone Moore, 2025 represents a critical proving ground defining his tenure at Michigan.

While his job is secure following the program’s strong finish to 2024 and recruiting success (the 2025 class ranked No. 6 nationally), expectations have risen significantly. Moore ranks 14th out of 18 Big Ten coaches in USA Today’s 2025 rankings, reflecting skepticism about his inexperience despite his impressive recruiting wins.

The challenge is multifaceted:

  • Moore must establish his own identity separate from Jim Harbaugh’s legacy
  • His offensive coordinator hire (Chip Lindsey) represents a significant philosophical shift
  • Managing a five-star quarterback’s development requires delicate handling
  • The expanded Big Ten presents new challenges and unfamiliar opponents
  • He must navigate a two-game self-imposed suspension due to fallout from the 2023 sign-stealing scandal

This early-season absence could impact the team’s development, particularly with a young quarterback. How Moore handles these challenges will reveal whether he’s merely a caretaker of Harbaugh’s program or a championship-caliber head coach in his own right.

The verdict on Moore’s leadership will emerge through how Michigan responds to adversity in 2025.

The answers to these five questions will determine whether Michigan contends for championships or faces another rebuilding year.

Several critical questions will shape Michigan’s 2025 campaign:

  1. How quickly can Bryce Underwood develop? The ceiling for this team largely depends on whether the freshman phenom can translate his immense talent to college production immediately. The history of true freshman quarterbacks suggests caution, but Underwood’s talent is undeniable.
  2. Will Chip Lindsey’s offensive overhaul yield immediate results? After ranking 131st in passing, Michigan needs dramatic improvement to compete with Big Ten powers. Schematic changes take time, but the talent influx could accelerate the transition.
  3. Can the defense maintain elite production despite key departures? The front seven appears loaded, but secondary depth and consistency remain concerns. Martindale’s second year should bring greater comfort in his system.
  4. Will the offensive line provide adequate protection for a freshman quarterback? This unit’s performance directly impacts Underwood’s development and the effectiveness of the rushing attack. The line must improve from its inconsistent 2024 performance.
  5. Can Michigan navigate the brutal road schedule? Games at Oklahoma, Nebraska, and USC represent significant challenges, particularly for a team breaking in new offensive systems. Road performance often separates good teams from great ones.

The answers to these questions will emerge gradually, but early-season performances will provide critical clues about Michigan’s trajectory.

Michigan stands poised between immediate resurgence and patient program building.

The contrast between optimism and caution defines Michigan’s 2025 outlook.

The influx of elite talent, particularly at quarterback, and the late-season momentum from 2024 suggest Michigan could quickly return to championship contention. Conversely, combining youth at key positions, a new offensive system, and a challenging schedule indicates potential growing pains.

What makes Michigan’s situation so compelling?

  • They’re just one year removed from a national championship
  • They possess championship-caliber defensive talent
  • They landed the nation’s No. 1 recruit at the sport’s most important position
  • They improved significantly at offensive coordinator
  • They face one of the nation’s most challenging schedules
  • They’re led by a head coach still establishing his identity

The talent level in Ann Arbor remains championship-caliber, the defensive identity remains strong, and the offensive ceiling is substantially higher than in 2024.

Whether Michigan can meet those expectations in 2025 or whether fans must practice patience for another season represents the defining storyline as the Wolverines embark on a new era under Sherrone Moore’s leadership, powered by a generational talent in Bryce Underwood.

Michigan’s 2025 season could ultimately be remembered as the beginning of a new dynasty or the necessary growing pains before one.

The Next Billion Dollar Game

College football isn’t just a sport anymore—it’s a high-stakes market where information asymmetry separates winners from losers. While the average fan sees only what happens between the sidelines, real insiders trade on the hidden dynamics reshaping programs from the inside out.

Our team has embedded with the power brokers who run this game. From the coaching carousel to NIL deals to transfer portal strategies, we’ve mapped the entire ecosystem with the kind of obsessive detail that would make a hedge fund analyst blush.

Why subscribe? Because in markets this inefficient, information creates alpha. Our subscribers knew which coaches were dead men walking months before the mainstream media caught on. They understood which programs were quietly transforming their recruiting apparatuses while competitors slept.

The smart money is already positioning for 2025. Are you?

Click below—it’s free—and join the small group of people who understand the real value of college football’s new economy.

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Washington Huskies 2025 Football Season Preview: Building on a Foundation

Mark Haines on May 19, 2025

Washington Huskies second-year head coach Jedd Fisch is quietly assembling the pieces for what could be the Big Ten’s most intriguing turnaround story in 2025.

Washington enters their sophomore Big Ten campaign with a dramatically different outlook than the tumultuous transition year that produced a 6-7 record in 2024. With a dynamic young quarterback firmly entrenched as the starter, key playmakers returning on both sides of the ball, and a completely revamped coaching staff, the foundation for success is taking shape in Seattle.

What makes this Husky team worth watching isn’t just its potential to improve—it’s how it’s being built to address the glaring weaknesses that derailed it in 2024, specifically.

The Jekyll and Hyde Season That Set the Stage

The 2024 Huskies might have been college football’s most perplexing team.

What other program could boast a perfect 6-0 home record, including a signature win over Michigan, while simultaneously going winless (0-5) on the road? The contrast was so stark it almost defied logic:

  • At Home: 6-0 record, wins over Michigan (27-17), USC, and UCLA
  • On the Road: 0-5 record, including a lopsided 21-49 defeat to rival Oregon
  • Final Tally: 6-7 overall (4-5 Big Ten), capped by a heartbreaking 34-35 Sun Bowl loss to Louisville

This Jekyll and Hyde performance ultimately defined Year One of the Fisch era, creating a clear roadmap for what needs fixing in 2025.

The home dominance demonstrated this team’s ceiling—they have the talent to compete with established Big Ten powers.

The Demond Williams Jr. Effect

Everything changes when you find your quarterback.

The most electric development from Washington’s 2024 campaign was the late-season emergence of Demond Williams Jr., the dynamic dual-threat quarterback who has energized the entire program heading into 2025. Williams, who followed Fisch from Arizona, showed flashes of brilliance that have Husky fans dreaming big.

His Sun Bowl performance alone, over 420 total yards and five touchdowns despite an early interception, offered a tantalizing preview of what’s to come.

“Demond will be the face of Washington football moving forward next year,” Fisch stated unequivocally during the 2024 season, making it clear the program is all-in on building around Williams’ unique talents.

What makes Williams special isn’t just his arm talent or athleticism—it’s the competitive fire he brings to a program in transition:

  • Completed over 80% of his passes in both of his starts
  • Demonstrated elite escapability behind a struggling offensive line
  • Showed remarkable poise for a true freshman in hostile environments
  • Provided the offense with a dynamic dimension it previously lacked

The offense has additional firepower returning, creating a solid foundation for improvement:

  • RB Jonah Coleman (1,000+ yards, 10 TDs in 2024)
  • WR Denzel Boston (834 yards, 9 TDs)
  • An offensive line bolstered by key transfers

The Coaching Revolution

Jedd Fisch’s staff for 2025 barely resembles the one that roamed the sidelines in 2024.

Four key assistants departed after the 2024 season, triggering a cascade of changes that could dramatically reshape the Huskies’ identity. The most significant moves:

  • Ryan Walters: The former Purdue head coach takes over as defensive coordinator, bringing a proven track record of defensive transformation
  • Jimmie Dougherty: Promoted to offensive coordinator while maintaining his role as QB coach
  • Michael Switzer: Elevated to offensive line coach
  • Taylor Mays: The former USC All-American joins as safeties coach

The Walters hire deserves special attention.

“Hiring Ryan Walters allows us to continue to build on the foundation of the 2024 defense while continuing to grow and improve,” Fisch explained. “His experience in the Big Ten Conference was vital in this hire, along with having deep family ties in the Seattle area.”

Walters’ defensive coordinator resume speaks volumes about his potential impact. At Illinois, he transformed a unit ranked 97th nationally in scoring defense into the country’s #1 scoring defense (12.3 ppg) in just two seasons, precisely the dramatic improvement Washington needs.

Fixing What Was Broken

The 2024 Huskies had apparent, identifiable weaknesses that torpedoed their season.

Fisch and his staff have spent the offseason methodically addressing each one:

1. Run Defense Vulnerability

  • 2024 Problem: Allowed 161.8 rushing yards per game (4.6 per carry)
  • 2025 Solution: Added significant size (multiple 310+ pound linemen) and emphasized rotational depth to prevent late-game fading

2. Offensive Line Fragility

  • 2024 Problem: Often had just 7-9 healthy linemen, creating depth issues and pass protection breakdowns
  • 2025 Solution: Added 18 offensive linemen for spring practice, including Kansas State transfer tackle Carver Willis

3. Road Game Nightmares

  • 2024 Problem: 0-5 away from home with significant statistical dropoffs
  • 2025 Solution: Increased roster depth and physical development to better withstand travel demands

4. Discipline Issues

  • 2024 Problem: Averaged 5.8 penalties per game, often at crucial moments
  • 2025 Solution: Made discipline a cornerstone of practice philosophy

The Youth Movement

The “Dawgs After Dark” spring game provided the first public glimpse of Washington’s future.

An impressive crowd of 20,565 showed up for the nighttime showcase, where several young players flashed potential that could impact the 2025 campaign:

  • Freshman WR Raiden Vines-Bright: 8 catches, 131 yards, TD
  • Freshman safety Rylon “Batman” Dillard-Allen: Pick-six
  • Multiple redshirt freshmen are pushing for starting roles

“I love having the music playing throughout. I thought we had a really good turnout,” Fisch remarked after the event, highlighting the program’s emphasis on building enthusiasm within the fan base.

The injection of youth, combined with the established veterans, creates an intriguing mix of experience and potential.

The 2025 Gauntlet

Washington’s 2025 schedule presents a series of defining tests to determine whether this team has taken the next step.

The non-conference slate looks manageable (Colorado State, UC Davis, and the Apple Cup against Washington State), but the Big Ten portion features several potential season-makers or season-breakers:

Biggest Home Challenges:

  • Ohio State (late September)
  • Oregon (season finale)

Road Gauntlet:

  • Michigan’s Big House (mid-October)
  • Wisconsin’s Camp Randall (early November)
  • Maryland (following the Ohio State game)

A unique scheduling quirk adds another layer of difficulty—Washington faces five conference opponents coming off bye weeks, while the Huskies’ byes fall at suboptimal times (Weeks 3 and 10).

The Blueprint for Success

Four factors ultimately determine whether Washington ascends to the Big Ten hierarchy or remains stuck in transition.

1. Williams’ Evolution: His dual-threat capabilities give the offense a dynamic dimension, but consistency in the passing game will be paramount against elite defenses.

2. Walters’ Defensive Impact: Can the new coordinator work the same magic he produced at Illinois, particularly against the run?

3. Trench Warfare: Both lines struggled in 2024. The added size and depth are promising, but performance against physical Big Ten opponents will be the true measure.

4. Road Resilience Turning around the dismal 0-5 road record is essential for a winning season.

The 2025 Outlook

The math suggests Washington is headed for improvement in 2025.

Early projections place the Huskies in the 7-5 range, with a realistic span between 6-6 and 8-4 depending on how quickly the new coaching innovations take hold. This would represent tangible progress from 2024 and position the program well for further advancement in 2026.

“We still haven’t even been here a year,” Fisch reflected after the 2024 season. “To be around these kids and these guys has just been so special. They certainly have laid the foundation of a team that’s going to fight, a team that’s going to play extremely hard, a team that has an elite freshman playing quarterback, and a team that’s going to be out here battling every year to be in the playoff games.”

The ceiling for this team ultimately depends on how quickly Walters’ defensive schemes take hold and whether the offensive line can better protect Williams, allowing him to showcase his talents fully.

What’s clear is that 2025 represents more than just another season; it’s the year Washington establishes its Big Ten identity.

The Next Billion Dollar Game

College football isn’t just a sport anymore—it’s a high-stakes market where information asymmetry separates winners from losers. While the average fan sees only what happens between the sidelines, real insiders trade on the hidden dynamics reshaping programs from the inside out.

Our team has embedded with the power brokers who run this game. From the coaching carousel to NIL deals to transfer portal strategies, we’ve mapped the entire ecosystem with the kind of obsessive detail that would make a hedge fund analyst blush.

Why subscribe? Because in markets this inefficient, information creates alpha. Our subscribers knew which coaches were dead men walking months before the mainstream media caught on. They understood which programs were quietly transforming their recruiting apparatuses while competitors slept.

The smart money is already positioning for 2025. Are you?

Click below—it’s free—and join the small group of people who understand the real value of college football’s new economy.

Free Subscription
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Michigan State Football: The Road Ahead in 2025

Mark Haines on May 16, 2025

If there’s one word to describe Michigan State football heading into the 2025 season, it’s “potential.”

Jonathan Smith’s second season at the helm brings Spartan faithful to a crossroads of hope and skepticism. After a 5-7 campaign in 2024 that showed flashes of promise but ultimately extended the program’s bowl drought to three consecutive seasons, Michigan State enters 2025 armed with a dramatically retooled roster and heightened expectations.

The million-dollar question hanging over East Lansing: Can Smith accelerate this rebuild and return the Spartans to Big Ten relevance faster than the experts predict?

Building Around Chiles

Aidan Chiles is the engine that will power Michigan State’s 2025 season.

The Oregon State transfer’s first year in East Lansing was a rollercoaster – 2,415 passing yards, 13 touchdowns, and 11 interceptions while completing 59% of his passes. But raw numbers only tell part of the story. The stats don’t show the jaw-dropping throws, the escapes from collapsing pockets, and the flashes of NFL-caliber talent that had Spartan fans salivating about the future.

“I want the wins,” Chiles told reporters this spring. “But I want to learn how to get those wins. We’ve got to do the right things.”

This isn’t just “coachespeak”; it’s the mindset of a quarterback who experienced both the highs of a 3-0 start and the lows of blowout losses to conference powers in 2024. His December social media announcement recommitting to MSU for 2025 stabilized the program’s most important position at a time when QB transfer rumors swirl across college football daily.

For Michigan State to exceed expectations this fall, Chiles must make these three specific improvements:

  • Red zone decision-making: Converting yards into points was a glaring weakness, as MSU ranked 127th nationally in red zone efficiency
  • Third-down execution: The Spartans converted just 40.3% of third downs, keeping the defense on the field too long
  • Ball security: Those 11 interceptions must decrease, especially in a schedule featuring multiple top-25 defenses

The quarterback room also added talented freshman Leo Hannan from Servite High School in California. A 6-foot-4, 210-pound prospect with a cannon arm, Hannan will develop behind Chiles rather than compete for the starting role immediately.

Portal-Powered Improvement

Jonathan Smith has completely transformed Michigan State’s roster through the transfer portal.

The numbers tell the story: 16 transfers during the winter window alone, with more potentially coming during the spring period. This matches Smith’s stated philosophy about the modern college football landscape.

“I think philosophically, just where the landscape continues to go, it’s probably going to be closer to this 50-50 mark,” Smith explained during his Early Signing Day press conference.

This portal strategy has delivered massive upgrades at virtually every offensive position:

  • Running back: Elijah Tau-Tolliver (Sacramento State) brings 1,267 all-purpose yards and 9 TDs from 2024
  • Wide receiver: Three impact transfers headlined by Omari Kelly (Middle Tennessee State), who earned All-Conference USA first-team honors with 53 receptions for 869 yards
  • Offensive line: Multiple additions, including Conner Moore (Montana State), an FCS All-American who should immediately improve a unit that surrendered 19 sacks last season

When paired with breakout sophomore receiver Nick Marsh (649 yards as a freshman), Chiles now has legitimate weapons at every field level – something distinctly lacking during the 2024 campaign.

Defensive Retooling

Michigan State’s defense needed a complete overhaul, and Smith delivered through the portal.

The most glaring weakness in 2024 was the anemic pass rush, which generated just 19 sacks, among the lowest totals in the Big Ten and a key reason opponents converted 40.3% of third downs. To address this fatal flaw, Smith targeted these specific reinforcements:

  • Edge rushers: David Santiago (Air Force) and Anelu Lafaele (Wisconsin) bring athleticism, if not Power Five starting experience
  • Secondary: NiJhay Burt (Eastern Illinois), Malcolm Bell (UConn), and Joshua Eaton (Texas State) add much-needed depth and experience
  • Linebacker: Aisea Moa (BYU) provides athleticism to a unit that struggled in space last season

The defensive wild card is safety Malik Spencer, who one NFL insider suggested could play himself into first-round draft consideration with a strong junior season. Spencer’s 72 tackles and 6 pass breakups in 2024 only hint at his potential as the defense’s centerpiece.

If these portal additions can raise the defensive floor from “liability” to even “average,” Michigan State’s win total could exceed Vegas’s conservative 4.5-game projection.

Schedule Challenges

Michigan State’s 2025 schedule is absolutely brutal.

After a manageable non-conference slate featuring Western Michigan, Boston College, and Youngstown State, the Big Ten gauntlet looks like something designed by a sadistic schedule-maker with a vendetta against East Lansing.

Consider this murderer’s row:

  • Road trips: USC, Nebraska, Indiana, Minnesota, and Iowa – all teams projected to be bowl-eligible or better
  • Home games: Penn State, Michigan, and UCLA – offering little respite between road challenges
  • Neutral site: Maryland at Detroit’s Ford Field – potentially the most “winnable” conference game

With five likely preseason Top 25 teams on the docket, even significant improvement might not translate directly to a dramatically better record. This is where context matters – competitive losses against elite teams would represent meaningful progress compared to 2024’s blowouts.

The season opener against Western Michigan becomes crucial for building momentum and confidence before the Big Ten buzzsaw arrives.

Roster Development

Michigan State’s recruiting strategy reflects Smith’s methodical, long-term approach to program building.

The 2025 high school class, ranked 45th nationally according to 247Sports, isn’t going to wow national analysts. But look closer and you’ll see a clear identity emerging – tough, developmental prospects who fit specific schemes rather than star rankings.

Four-star defensive tackle Derrick Simmons from Frankenmuth, Michigan, headlines the group, while the class includes these potential diamonds in the rough:

  • Leo Hannan (QB): Big arm talent with surprisingly good mobility for his 6’4″ frame
  • Aydan West (CB): Ball-hawking cornerback who was pursued heavily by Ohio State late in the cycle
  • Zion Gist (RB): Powerful runner with a north-south style that fits perfectly in Smith’s offense

However, the real X-factor for 2025 is the potential emergence of second-year players from the 2024 recruiting class. Wide receiver Nick Marsh has already proven himself. Still, linebacker Jordan Hall (24 tackles in 2024) could be the breakout star after being converted to a hybrid edge role to help address the pass rush deficiencies.

Program Trajectory

Jonathan Smith is building Michigan State football like he rebuilt Oregon State.

This matters enormously when projecting the program’s trajectory. Smith methodically transformed Oregon State from Pac-12 doormat to 10-win contender through these specific strategies:

  • Process-oriented approach: Focusing on daily improvement rather than short-term results
  • Staff consistency: Building coaching continuity rather than constantly changing systems
  • Player development: Turning 3-star recruits into All-Conference performers
  • Portal maximization: Using transfers strategically to address immediate roster holes

His first year in East Lansing offered glimpses of this blueprint, and Smith has generated surprising goodwill among fans, boosters, and administrators who recognize the difficult situation he inherited. While patience isn’t infinite in college football, there’s genuine understanding that rebuilding requires time.

Financial commitment remains strong, with key donors like Mat Ishbia (who contributed $20 million to the $68 million football facility renovation) continuing to back Smith’s vision. These investments signal the university’s long-term commitment despite recent struggles.

Keys to Success in 2025

For Michigan State to shock the Big Ten and exceed expectations in 2025, these five specific factors must align:

  • Red Zone Efficiency: Converting drives into touchdowns instead of field goals or turnovers (MSU scored just 1.1 offensive TDs/game in 2024 despite averaging 5.4 yards/play)
  • Pass Rush Development: Increasing sack production from 19 to 30+ would transform the defense’s effectiveness, especially on third downs.
  • Disciplined Play: Penalties (6.7 per game at 63.3 yards) killed countless drives in 2024, though spring reports show improvement toward the 4.2 penalties/game target
  • Offensive Line Cohesion: With NFL prospect Luke Newman anchoring a unit returning four starters plus key portal additions, the trenches could become a strength
  • Turnover Creation: The defense generated 9 interceptions in 2024 but just 4 forced fumbles – doubling that latter number would dramatically improve field position

If these five areas show meaningful improvement, Michigan State could be surprised at a conference where many teams are also transitioning.

Outlook and Expectations

Here’s the brutal truth about Michigan State football in 2025: Vegas oddsmakers have set the win total at just 4.5.

This conservative projection acknowledges the program’s rebuilding status and murderous schedule. But here’s where betting markets and football reality diverge – Smith establishes a foundation for sustainable success far beyond the 2025 record.

The current situation requires patience for a fanbase accustomed to Dantonio’s glory days, three Big Ten championships, and a College Football Playoff appearance. Yet there’s growing recognition that Smith’s methodical approach mirrors many of the attributes that made Dantonio successful in the first place.

The real question isn’t whether Michigan State will win six games in 2025. It’s whether Michigan State will become a program that consistently wins 8-10 games by 2026 and beyond.

One thing is certain: with Chiles at quarterback and a dramatically upgraded supporting cast, Spartan football will be significantly more entertaining and competitive than recent memory – even if bowl eligibility remains an ambitious target for this particular season.

The foundation is being poured. Now it’s time to see if the structure rises faster than expected.

The Next Billion Dollar Game

College football isn’t just a sport anymore—it’s a high-stakes market where information asymmetry separates winners from losers. While the average fan sees only what happens between the sidelines, real insiders trade on the hidden dynamics reshaping programs from the inside out.

Our team has embedded with the power brokers who run this game. From the coaching carousel to NIL deals to transfer portal strategies, we’ve mapped the entire ecosystem with the kind of obsessive detail that would make a hedge fund analyst blush.

Why subscribe? Because in markets this inefficient, information creates alpha. Our subscribers knew which coaches were dead men walking months before the mainstream media caught on. They understood which programs were quietly transforming their recruiting apparatuses while competitors slept.

The smart money is already positioning for 2025. Are you?

Click below—it’s free—and join the small group of people who understand the real value of college football’s new economy.

Free Subscription
BACK TO THE BLOG ARCHIVE
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UCLA’s 2025 Transformation: How Nico Iamaleava Changes Everything in Westwood

Mark Haines on May 15, 2025

UCLA just went all-in on the transfer portal — and it might propel them from Big Ten afterthought to conference dark horse overnight.

After a bumpy 5-7 inaugural season in the Big Ten, head coach DeShaun Foster isn’t settling for gradual improvement. Instead, he’s orchestrating a total program rebuild through the most aggressive quarterback upgrade and coaching overhaul we’ve seen in college football’s new era.

25 million eyes are watching the Nico Iamaleava experiment

Where will you be when college football history gets made?

Tennessee’s loss became UCLA’s stunning gain when former five-star quarterback Nico Iamaleava announced his transfer to Westwood in April 2025. The move instantly transformed the Bruins’ offensive ceiling and national relevance. The Southern California native returns home after leading Tennessee to a 10-3 record and College Football Playoff appearance last season.

What makes this transfer so fascinating?

  • Iamaleava brings elite credentials: 2,616 passing yards, 19 touchdowns, and just 5 interceptions in 2024
  • His dual-threat abilities (358 rushing yards, 3 TDs) perfectly match modern offensive systems
  • The transfer saga became college football’s biggest soap opera, with reported NIL disputes at Tennessee
  • UCLA’s expected starter, Joey Aguilar (Appalachian State transfer), immediately left after Iamaleava’s commitment

When Foster called Iamaleava “the No. 1 player in the portal” at his April press conference, he wasn’t exaggerating. The coach acknowledged the hometown connection made the courtship easier: “If it wasn’t a local kid, it would’ve been a little bit more difficult,” Foster said. “But being able to see him play in high school and evaluating that film at Tennessee wasn’t hard to do. A lot of the kids on the team know him and have played with him.”

This isn’t just a quarterback upgrade — it’s a program-defining swing that could accelerate UCLA’s Big Ten trajectory by years.

The offensive wizard you’ve never heard of (yet)

While everyone’s talking about Iamaleava, don’t sleep on UCLA’s other transformative addition.

Tino Sunseri might be the most critical coordinator hire in college football this season. The 36-year-old quarterback guru joins UCLA after engineering Indiana’s offensive explosion (41.3 PPG, 2nd nationally) that fueled the Hoosiers’ shocking College Football Playoff appearance.

What makes Sunseri the perfect architect for UCLA’s offensive rebuild?

  • His QB development track record is impeccable (turned Kurtis Rourke into one of Big Ten’s best at Indiana)
  • He learned under college football royalty (Nick Saban at Alabama, Jimbo Fisher at Florida State)
  • His innovative system emphasizes tempo, pre-snap motion, and quarterback-friendly concepts
  • UCLA desperately needs his expertise after ranking 126th nationally in scoring (18.4 PPG)

Foster’s praise for Sunseri wasn’t just typical coaching speak: “Tino Sunseri is a natural leader of young men and a rising star in coaching. He puts his quarterbacks in positions to succeed, and it shows when you look at their production. Players will feed off his passion for development.”

The Iamaleava-Sunseri pairing has Hollywood-level intrigue. If they click immediately, UCLA could become the Big Ten’s most fascinating offense.

The transfer portal isn’t just changing UCLA’s quarterback room — it’s rebuilding their entire identity.

No program in America embraced college football’s free agency revolution more completely than UCLA this offseason.

The numbers are staggering: 29 incoming transfers and 34 outgoing transfers by mid-May 2025. That’s not roster tweaking; it’s a complete teardown and rebuild.

The transfer portal transformation includes:

  • Losing productive RB T.J. Harden to SMU, but adding Jaivian Thomas (Cal) and Anthony Woods (Idaho)
  • Reinforcing the receiver corps with Mikey Matthews to complement promising returner Kwazi Gilmer
  • Rebuilding an entire defense that lost all 11 starters, including standout LB Carson Schwesinger
  • Adding 20 new defensive players to work under returning coordinator Ikaika Malloe

This isn’t just changing players; it’s changing UCLA’s competitive DNA. Foster is betting that rapid, wholesale change through the portal will produce faster results than gradual development.

The question isn’t whether UCLA has talent. It’s whether a team with so many new faces can build chemistry quickly enough to maximize that talent.

A schedule with just enough runway for takeoff

UCLA’s second Big Ten schedule provides a sensible launch sequence for its rebuilt program.

The schedule begins with three appealing non-conference matchups:

  • Utah at home (Aug. 30) — Former Pac-12 rival now in the Big 12
  • At UNLV (Sept. 6) — Winnable road test at Allegiant Stadium
  • New Mexico at home (Sept. 13) — Opportunity to build confidence
  • BYE WEEK — Perfect timing before conference play

Then, the Big Ten gauntlet alternates home and away games (a massive improvement over 2024’s travel nightmare, which saw UCLA log over 22,000 miles).

The Winnable Games:

  • Northwestern (away, Sept. 27)
  • Maryland (home, Oct. 18)
  • Nebraska (home, Nov. 8)
  • Indiana (away, Oct. 25)

The Measuring Stick Games:

  • Penn State (home, Oct. 4)
  • Michigan State (away, Oct. 11)
  • Washington (home, Nov. 22)

The Major Challenges:

  • Ohio State (away, Nov. 15)
  • USC (away, Nov. 29)

This schedule has the perfect structure for a rebuilding team: early confidence-builders, midseason tests, and high-profile showcase opportunities late. If UCLA manages a 2-1 non-conference start and splits its winnable conference games, bowl eligibility becomes realistic.

Foster’s coaching future will be defined in the next 12 Saturdays

Year Two is when coaching narratives get solidified.

For DeShaun Foster, 2025 isn’t just another season — it’s potentially career-defining. After a 5-7 debut that showed both promise (winning 3 of last 6) and problems (losing first 5 conference games), Foster responded with one of college football’s boldest offseason overhauls.

What makes Foster’s second season so pivotal?

  • He’s betting his coaching future on the transfer portal model working immediately.
  • The financial stakes in the Big Ten raise expectations exponentially
  • His Bruins background (UCLA legend as a player) amplifies both the support and scrutiny
  • Bowl eligibility is now the minimum standard for fan satisfaction

Foster understands the ticking clock, telling reporters early in the offseason: “We’re going to be able to reload… That’s the nature of the business” — words interpreted by many as acknowledging his seat temperature.

Coaches who succeed in Year Two often build lasting programs, while those who don’t often find themselves updating résumés.

Bowl game or bust? Experts say it’s a coin flip.

Vegas and betting markets have UCLA sitting precisely on the bowl eligibility bubble.

The consensus over/under line for UCLA’s 2025 win total: 5.5 games.

What that means in plain English: experts believe UCLA is equally likely to win 5 games and miss a bowl as they are to win 6+ and qualify. The Bruins are the ultimate “prove it” team entering 2025.

The four factors that will determine which side of the bowl line UCLA lands on:

  1. Quarterback Impact: Can Iamaleava reproduce his Tennessee production in a new system?
  2. Staff Chemistry: Will a nearly complete coaching turnover create cohesion or confusion?
  3. Schedule Navigation: Can UCLA handle the winnable games (Northwestern, Maryland, Nebraska)?
  4. Defensive Rebuild: Is it possible to lose 11 starters and maintain defensive competence?

CBS Sports’ Tom Fornelli perfectly captured the prevailing sentiment: UCLA has “a real shot at six wins and a bowl berth if they take care of business in winnable games.”

Foster’s aggressive offseason approach has given UCLA legitimate bowl aspirations. Now they need to convert potential into production.

The Bruins are running college football’s most fascinating experiment

UCLA is testing a revolutionary question: can you shortcut a rebuild through the transfer portal?

Traditional program building takes years of recruiting, developing, and establishing a culture. Foster is attempting to compress that timeline dramatically through immediate talent infusion.

If UCLA reaches a bowl game in 2025, it will validate a new model for rapid program transformation. If it falls short, it will demonstrate the limitations of the portal-centric approach.

The 2025 Bruins represent the clearest test case yet of college football’s new roster-building paradigm. By acquiring an elite quarterback (Iamaleava), innovative coordinator (Sunseri), and dozens of transfers, UCLA has positioned itself as the sport’s most interesting experiment.

In 12 months, we’ll know if it was brilliance or folly.

What we’re about to witness in Westwood isn’t just another season of Bruins football — it’s a glimpse into the future of college football program building.

And I can’t wait to see how it unfolds.

The Next Billion Dollar Game

College football isn’t just a sport anymore—it’s a high-stakes market where information asymmetry separates winners from losers. While the average fan sees only what happens between the sidelines, real insiders trade on the hidden dynamics reshaping programs from the inside out.

Our team has embedded with the power brokers who run this game. From the coaching carousel to NIL deals to transfer portal strategies, we’ve mapped the entire ecosystem with the kind of obsessive detail that would make a hedge fund analyst blush.

Why subscribe? Because in markets this inefficient, information creates alpha. Our subscribers knew which coaches were dead men walking months before the mainstream media caught on. They understood which programs were quietly transforming their recruiting apparatuses while competitors slept.

The smart money is already positioning for 2025. Are you?

Click below—it’s free—and join the small group of people who understand the real value of college football’s new economy.

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Nebraska Football 2025: The Season That Could Change Everything

Mark Haines on May 13, 2025

Nebraska football is back.

After ending its seven-year bowl drought and claiming its first bowl victory since 2015, the Nebraska Cornhuskers enter the 2025 season with sky-high expectations. Matt Rhule’s program made legitimate progress in year two, finishing 7-6 with a 20-15 triumph over Boston College in the Pinstripe Bowl. Armed with a transformed roster and revamped coaching staff, the Huskers look ready to shatter expectations in the Big Ten.

The Mastermind Has Arrived (And He’s Staying)

Dana Holgorsen might be the most important addition to Nebraska football in a decade.

The offensive guru officially signed a two-year contract to remain Nebraska’s offensive coordinator after his late-season audition produced immediate results. Joining the staff initially as a consultant in 2024 before taking over play-calling duties for the final four games, Holgorsen transformed a stagnant offense almost overnight.

“Dana is one of the elite offensive minds in football, and the progress we made in our final three games provides a glimpse of the potential of our offense under his direction,” head coach Matt Rhule explained when announcing Holgorsen’s retention.

His resume tells the story of offensive brilliance:

  • Six seasons as an FBS coordinator with average national finishes of 2nd in passing offense, 3rd in total offense, and 6th in scoring
  • Experience developing more than 20 All-Americans and 50 NFL draft picks
  • History of coaching quarterbacks to fifteen 3,000-yard passing seasons
  • Track record of six 4,000-yard passing seasons and two 5,000-yard passing seasons under his guidance

Defensively, John Butler brings a fresh approach as coordinator with extensive experience from both the college and NFL ranks. Terry Bradden, who joins from the Kansas City Chiefs, coaches the defensive line, adding professional championship pedigree to the staff.

The combination of offensive continuity and strategic defensive additions positions Nebraska for a potential breakout in 2025.

Dylan Raiola 2.0: Leaner, Meaner, and Ready to Explode

Dylan Raiola is transforming himself into a championship quarterback.

No single player impacts Nebraska’s 2025 ceiling more than their sophomore signal-caller. The former five-star recruit showcased immense potential as a true freshman starter, completing 67.1% of his passes for 2,819 yards and 13 touchdowns. These weren’t just good numbers for a freshman but program-record-setting performances.

This offseason has been about physical transformation and leadership development. Matt Rhule didn’t mince words about Raiola’s need to reshape his body, stating bluntly: “He won’t be a great quarterback at 240 pounds.”

The message landed. Raiola attacked his conditioning with:

  • Pre-dawn 6 a.m. boxing sessions to improve his cardio and quick-twitch athleticism
  • Comprehensive nutrition and weight management program
  • Extended sauna sessions during breaks to improve conditioning

By spring practice, Raiola reported feeling “in the best shape” of his career, having dropped approximately 10 pounds while significantly improving his mobility.

“I’m super excited about my future with Nebraska,” Raiola told reporters in March 2025. “Coach Holgorsen’s offense really suits my style and gives me freedom to make plays. I’m focused on mastering the system and being a better leader for my teammates.”

Beyond physical improvements, Raiola has embraced becoming the team’s unquestioned leader, even coaching younger quarterbacks during practices. Rhule has noticed the difference, noting Raiola is “10 steps ahead of where he was” as a freshman, showcasing improved pocket movement, quicker decision-making, and advanced understanding of defensive coverages.

The Transfer Portal Revolution

Nebraska just assembled one of the nation’s elite transfer classes.

The Huskers aggressively leveraged the transfer portal to address their 2024 weaknesses, landing eleven high-impact transfers who will immediately elevate the program’s talent level in critical areas.

Dane Key from Kentucky stands as the crown jewel of the class. The 6-foot-3 receiver arrives with eye-popping SEC credentials:

  • 126 catches for 1,870 yards and 14 touchdowns over three seasons
  • Career-high 715 receiving yards in 2024 despite inconsistent quarterback play
  • Extensive experience against NFL-caliber defensive backs

Key immediately projects as Raiola’s primary target, bringing precise route-running, reliable hands, and high-level experience against elite competition.

“Dylan was one of the first people that texted me when I came on my visit,” Key revealed during spring practice. “Dylan was with me on every second of my visit.”

The connection between quarterback and new receiver is already blooming, with Key specifically mentioning that Raiola’s talent was “one of the main reasons why I chose to come here.”

Defensively, former Oklahoma linebacker Dasan McCullough brings versatility and playmaking ability. The 6-foot-5, 235-pound former Freshman All-American at Indiana gives Nebraska’s defense an actual chess piece capable of playing multiple positions.

Nebraska also secured cornerback Andrew Marshall from Idaho, among the top FCS defensive backs in 2024 with first-team All-Big Sky honors. Marshall provides coverage skills and elite return ability, addressing a critical special-teams weakness from last season.

Other crucial additions include Notre Dame offensive lineman Rocco Spindler (projected as one of the Big Ten’s top interior linemen) and former Missouri defensive lineman Williams Nwaneri (a disruptive force who should help offset losses along the defensive front).

A Schedule Made for Success

Nebraska couldn’t have asked for a more favorable Big Ten schedule.

The 2025 slate sets up perfectly for the Huskers to make serious noise. They open against Cincinnati in a neutral-site game (likely at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City) before hosting Akron and Houston Christian to complete non-conference play.

In conference action, Nebraska benefits from several fortunate breaks:

  • Avoiding both Ohio State and Oregon completely
  • Hosting Michigan, Michigan State, Northwestern, USC, and rival Iowa at Memorial Stadium
  • Building momentum with four consecutive home games early in the season
  • Playing their toughest road games (Penn State, UCLA) after establishing identity

This structure allows Nebraska to build confidence and momentum early with four straight home games (including two Big Ten contests) following the opener against Cincinnati.

With analysts already projecting Nebraska to win 8-9 games in 2025, this favorable schedule could be the catalyst needed to exceed expectations if Raiola and the offensive additions click under Holgorsen’s guidance.

Holgorsen’s Offensive Revolution

Dana Holgorsen spent a month redesigning Nebraska’s offense from the ground up.

After his brief but impactful late-season audition as play-caller, Holgorsen dedicated his entire offseason to reshaping Nebraska’s offensive identity. He’s maintained schematic continuity from 2024 but is streamlining the system to maximize Raiola’s strengths and enhance the team’s explosiveness.

“I sat here for a month, watched every cut-up, and figured out stuff I wanted to do and didn’t want to do,” Holgorsen explained of his methodical approach. “If there are subtle changes in terminology, sets or plays, a majority of it’s going to stay the same.”

The receiving corps has undergone complete transformation. Dane Key and Cal transfer Nyziah Hunter join returners Jacory Barney Jr. and Jaylen Lloyd to form what could be Nebraska’s most dynamic playmaker group in years.

During spring workouts, Barney particularly caught Key’s attention: “The way that guy moves is very special. I haven’t seen too many guys move and shift the way that he can.”

Emmett Johnson steps into the featured role in the backfield after averaging an impressive 5.1 yards per carry last season. Johnson’s explosiveness fits perfectly in Holgorsen’s historically balanced offensive system.

The offensive line, a priority for both Rhule and Holgorsen, should take a significant step forward with Spindler’s addition and returning experience. Improved protection for Raiola and a consistent ground game will be essential for unlocking the full potential of Holgorsen’s offensive vision.

A New Defensive Identity

John Butler brings fresh defensive ideas while honoring what already worked.

With Tony White departing to Florida State, new defensive coordinator Butler introduces his approach while maintaining elements of the successful 3-3-5 structure that served Nebraska well in 2024. Look for more multiple fronts and aggressive pressure packages designed to generate turnovers and disrupt opposing offenses.

McCullough’s arrival gives Nebraska a versatile weapon that can line up almost anywhere, including the hybrid “Jack” role, which combines linebacker and edge-rusher responsibilities. Nebraska’s secondary, which performed admirably in 2024 by holding opponents to a 63.9% completion rate, adds Marshall to an already talented group featuring Ceyair Wright, Malcolm Hartzog Jr., and Marques Buford Jr.

The defensive front will showcase several new faces following key departures, but Nwaneri’s addition provides immediate impact potential. Nebraska’s defensive success in 2025 largely depends on how quickly these new pieces mesh and whether Butler can maintain the improvement shown under White’s leadership.

Fixing the Kicking Game

Special teams improvement could be worth an extra win or two in 2025.

This phase remains a critical focus heading into 2025 after inconsistent performance plagued the Huskers last season. Nebraska’s field goal percentage (68.4%) fell below the national average, and the return game generated almost no explosive plays.

Matt Rhule diagnosed the issue directly during spring practice: “I think a lot of our problems stemmed at the snapper position.”

To address these weaknesses, Nebraska made targeted additions:

  • Andrew Marshall brings elite return skills from his time at Idaho
  • Long snapper Kevin Gallic transfers in from New Hampshire
  • Punter Jack McCallister arrives from Washington to boost field position

These specialized additions demonstrate Nebraska’s commitment to improving every aspect of its program, not just the headline-grabbing offensive and defensive positions.

Five Keys to a Breakthrough Season

Nebraska’s path to exceeding expectations depends on five critical factors.

For the Huskers to surpass the 8-9 win projection that analysts have set, they must address these specific areas:

  1. Red Zone Efficiency: Converting drives into touchdowns was Nebraska’s Achilles’ heel in 2024. Holgorsen’s offensive system should produce immediate improvement, paired with Key’s addition and Raiola’s development.
  2. Breaking Through Against Ranked Teams: Nebraska competed with but ultimately fell short against ranked opponents in 2024. Securing signature wins against quality competition represents the next crucial step in the program’s evolution.
  3. Special Teams Impact: Field position battles and scoring opportunities via the kicking game often decide close conference contests. Nebraska’s focused portal additions in this area should pay immediate dividends.
  4. Quarterback Evolution: Raiola’s progression from promising freshman to established Big Ten quarterback will determine Nebraska’s ultimate ceiling. His physical transformation and comfort in Holgorsen’s system suggest he’s ready for the leap.
  5. Defensive Cohesion: Despite a coordinator change, maintaining defensive effectiveness while integrating new starters represents a critical challenge. Butler’s NFL experience and the influx of talented transfers offer reason for optimism.

The Return of Big Red

Nebraska football is finally back where it belongs.

Seven years removed from their last bowl appearance before 2024, the Cornhuskers finally appear to be on solid footing under Matt Rhule’s leadership. The combination of Raiola’s development, Holgorsen’s offensive genius, strategic transfer additions, and a manageable schedule creates legitimate excitement heading into 2025.

“This is about building a sustainable program,” Rhule has consistently emphasized. With tangible progress already evident and significant investments in coaching and talent acquisition, the 2025 season represents a potential turning point in Nebraska’s return to national relevance.

While challenges remain, particularly integrating numerous new faces and establishing consistency against top competition, the foundation is firmly in place for Nebraska to surpass last season’s seven-win mark and potentially challenge for a top-half finish in the expanded Big Ten.

The 2025 season may not yet represent a return to championship contention for a program with Nebraska’s storied tradition. Still, it signals that the Cornhuskers are officially returning to prominence after nearly a decade in the wilderness.

The Next Billion Dollar Game

College football isn’t just a sport anymore—it’s a high-stakes market where information asymmetry separates winners from losers. While the average fan sees only what happens between the sidelines, real insiders trade on the hidden dynamics reshaping programs from the inside out.

Our team has embedded with the power brokers who run this game. From the coaching carousel to NIL deals to transfer portal strategies, we’ve mapped the entire ecosystem with the kind of obsessive detail that would make a hedge fund analyst blush.

Why subscribe? Because in markets this inefficient, information creates alpha. Our subscribers knew which coaches were dead men walking months before the mainstream media caught on. They understood which programs were quietly transforming their recruiting apparatuses while competitors slept.

The smart money is already positioning for 2025. Are you?

Click below—it’s free—and join the small group of people who understand the real value of college football’s new economy.

Free Subscription
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Kansas State Football 2025 Season Preview: Wildcats Poised for Big 12 Championship Run

Mark Haines on May 9, 2025

The Kansas State Wildcats aren’t just building a football program but constructing a dynasty.

Coming off their third consecutive 9-win season, the Wildcats have positioned themselves among the nation’s elite. Only Alabama, Clemson, Georgia, Notre Dame, Ohio State, Oregon, and Ole Miss can match K-State’s remarkable consistency over the last four years.

Let’s explain why 2025 could be the year the Wildcats finally break through to the College Football Playoff.

A Culture of Resilience That Few Programs Can Match

The defining moment of Kansas State’s 2024 season wasn’t a blowout win or a highlight-reel touchdown.

It was the greatest bowl comeback in school history—rallying from a 34-17 deficit to claim a 44-41 Rate Bowl victory that showcased the relentless culture Chris Klieman has built in Manhattan.

This is a program that refuses to flinch when facing adversity:

  • Three straight seasons with at least 9 wins
  • A run game that averaged a staggering 215.5 yards per game in 2024
  • A defense that strangled opposing ground attacks, allowing just 118.7 rushing yards per contest
  • A record-setting quarterback returning to lead an even more explosive offense

The foundation is rock solid. The ceiling? It might just be championship hardware.

Avery Johnson: The Next Great Dual-Threat QB Ready for Stardom

Remember when Collin Klein terrorized Big 12 defenses with his unique blend of power and precision?

Avery Johnson might be even better.

The junior quarterback enters 2025 coming off a sophomore campaign where he:

  • Threw for 2,712 yards and a school-record 25 touchdowns
  • Added 605 rushing yards and 7 scores on the ground
  • Finished fourth in school history in pass attempts, fifth in completions, and passing yards
  • Became one of only nine quarterbacks in the nation with at least 25 passing TDs and seven rushing TDs

“We’re in May and nobody knows what their roster is going to be for the season,” Klieman said recently. “But [we retain] a key cog in Johnson. The Wildcats are expected to be among the favorites to claim the Big 12 Conference title and should be ranked when they open the 2025 season against Iowa State in Dublin, Ireland.”

The scary part? Johnson is just scratching the surface of his potential.

The Backfield That Nobody Wants to Face

Good luck getting any sleep if you’re a defensive coordinator preparing for Kansas State.

The Wildcats’ backfield boasts three distinct running styles, each capable of exploiting defensive weaknesses.

  • Dylan Edwards returns after a breakout 2024 season highlighted by his Rate Bowl heroics.
  • Nebraska transfer Gabe Ervin Jr. (6’0″, 220 pounds) brings power and physicality as a complementary piece.
  • Recently signed Antonio Martin Jr. adds yet another dimension to an already loaded room

In 2024, K-State became the only Power 4 team in the country with three players averaging at least 5.4 yards per carry (a minimum of 70 attempts).

Think about that for a second.

The 2025 version might be even more dangerous.

Transfer Portal Mastery That’s Changing the Program’s Ceiling

The old Kansas State was known for developing overlooked recruits into NFL players.

The new Kansas State? They’re still doing that but also winning big in the transfer portal.

The Wildcats signed a modern-era high of 14-15 transfers for 2025, addressing specific needs while maintaining the core of last year’s successful team:

  • Boston College transfer Jerand Bradley (6’5″, 222 pounds) gives Johnson a massive target who has already proven himself in the Big 12 at Texas Tech
  • Purdue transfer Jaron Tibbs and TCU transfer Caleb Medford transform a once-thin receiver room into a strength
  • High-upside defensive additions like Alabama linebacker Jayshawn Ross and Ohio State linebacker Gabe Powers bring blue-blood pedigrees to Manhattan.
  • Offensive line reinforcements arrived via JB Nelson (Penn State), Terrence Enos Jr. (Pittsburgh), and George Fitzpatrick (Ohio State)

The days of K-State being outmatched athletically are over. Now they’ve got the coaching AND the players to compete with anyone.

The Hidden Problems That Could Derail Championship Dreams

Not everything in Manhattan is perfect; ignoring these issues would be a mistake.

Two concerning statistical trends from 2024 could undermine K-State’s championship aspirations:

  • The Wildcats averaged 5.5 penalties per game (45.7 yards), including a season-high 9 penalties for 96 yards against West Virginia
  • Their turnover margin was perfectly neutral (16 committed, 15 forced), limiting momentum-changing opportunities in close games

These numbers point to fixable discipline issues that seem incongruent with what is otherwise one of the most stable coaching staffs in the Big 12.

For a team with slim championship margins, these self-inflicted wounds could be the difference between playing for a title in December and watching from home.

Additional Challenges That Bear Watching

Beyond the statistical concerns, several roster questions need answering:

The depth of quarterbacks behind Johnson is uncertain, which could be significant considering the physical demands of his playing style.

  • The offensive line must build cohesion quickly after losing several veteran starters.
  • Defensive depth, particularly in the front seven, was strained during spring practice due to injuries.
  • The new NCAA 105-man roster cap hits developmental programs like K-State especially har.d

None of these issues are insurmountable, but they can make the difference between a good and great team.

A Schedule Designed for National Attention

The 2025 campaign starts with the kind of spotlight few K-State teams have ever experienced.

The Aer Lingus College Football Classic against Iowa State on August 23 in Dublin, Ireland, marks just the second international game in program history. The winner immediately positions itself as an early Big 12 frontrunner.

Other key schedule highlights include:

  • Non-conference tests against North Dakota (Aug. 30) and Army (Sept. 6) before a fascinating “non-conference” Big 12 matchup at Arizona (Sept. 13)
  • Home games against UCF (Sept. 27), TCU (Oct. 11), Texas Tech (Nov. 1), and Colorado (Nov. 29)
  • Challenging road tests at Baylor (Oct. 4), Kansas (Oct. 25), Oklahoma State (Nov. 15), and first-time opponent Utah (Nov. 22)

The November stretch will define the season, with three of their final four games on the road before closing at home against Colorado.

Big 12 and CFP Outlook: The Window Is Now

Vegas oddsmakers have K-State’s over/under at 8.5 wins, but that number feels conservative.

The Wildcats are co-favorites (+550) to win the Big 12 alongside Arizona State, and for good reason.

What separates Kansas State in the expanded College Football Playoff era is its complete package:

  • Elite quarterback play from a true dual-threat talent
  • Explosive backfield with multiple rushing styles
  • Improved receiving corps with size and speed
  • Traditionally strong defense built to stop the run
  • Coaching continuity in a conference full of turnover

“The Wildcats are a perennial Big 12 contender, and the program should return to form after an inconsistent first year for quarterback Avery Johnson,” noted one analysis from CBS Sports. “To help, KSU brought in plenty of receiver help next to Jayce Brown, including Jerand Bradley and Caleb Medford. The defense has been consistent under Chris Klieman.”

The Big 12 has recently lacked a dominant national contender. Kansas State has the perfect opportunity to fill that void.

Coaching Staff Built for Modern College Football

As Klieman enters his seventh season, he’s assembled a staff designed for the new realities of college football.

The restructured coaching team includes:

  • Nate Kaczor as special teams coordinator, bringing 16 years of NFL experience
  • Matt Kardulis (assistant safeties coach) and David Orloff (outside linebackers coach) are providing specialized position coaching
  • Sean Maguire, promoted to assistant quarterbacks coach, continues to mentor Avery Johnson

The offensive approach under Matt Wells will leverage multiple personnel groupings and creative substitution patterns to maximize K-State’s depth at skill positions.

Defensively, coordinator Joe Klanderman’s unit has been a model of consistency, particularly against the run. The challenge will be maintaining that standard despite roster turnover and the 105-player limit.

The Bottom Line: Championship Window Is Wide Open

Kansas State football has never been better positioned for national relevance.

Combining an elite quarterback-running back tandem, strategic transfer portal additions, and a proven coaching staff creates a foundation for Big 12 title contention and potentially the program’s first College Football Playoff appearance.

The challenges are real—quarterback depth, offensive line cohesion, and cleaning up penalties and turnovers all bear watching—but the Wildcats’ track record suggests they’ll be in the thick of the conference race deep into November.

With a dramatic Ireland opener against Iowa State looming, K-State’s path to championship contention begins immediately.

If Avery Johnson takes the expected next step in his development and the transfer additions integrate smoothly, the Wildcats won’t just be playing for a conference title.

They could be playing for a whole lot more.

The Next Billion Dollar Game

College football isn’t just a sport anymore—it’s a high-stakes market where information asymmetry separates winners from losers. While the average fan sees only what happens between the sidelines, real insiders trade on the hidden dynamics reshaping programs from the inside out.

Our team has embedded with the power brokers who run this game. The coaching carousel, NIL deals, transfer portal strategies, we’ve mapped the entire ecosystem with the kind of obsessive detail that would make a hedge fund analyst blush.

Why subscribe? Because in markets this inefficient, information creates alpha. Our subscribers knew which coaches were dead men walking months before the mainstream media caught on. They understood which programs were quietly transforming their recruiting apparatuses while competitors slept.

The smart money is already positioning for 2025. Are you?

Click below—it’s free—and join the small group of people who understand the real value of college football’s new economy.

Free Subscription
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COLORADO FOOTBALL 2025: THE PRIME EFFECT ENTERS PHASE II

Mark Haines on May 7, 2025

Are you ready for Colorado football without Shedeur Sanders and Travis Hunter?

As we approach the 2025 college football season, the question on everyone’s mind is simple: Can Deion “Coach Prime” Sanders keep the Colorado football renaissance alive without his superstars?

The Meteoric Rise Nobody Saw Coming

Coach Prime inherited a disaster when he walked into Boulder two years ago.

The Buffaloes were fresh off a 1-11 season with fans questioning whether Colorado football would ever be relevant again. Fast forward just 24 months, and the transformation has been nothing short of remarkable:

  • Year 1: Four wins (a 300% improvement)
  • Year 2: Nine wins, including a 7-2 Big 12 record
  • Top 25 rankings in both AP and Coaches polls
  • An Alamo Bowl appearance
  • A Heisman Trophy winner in Travis Hunter

Now Sanders enters Year 3 with a freshly inked contract extension, making him one of college football’s highest-paid coaches, reportedly over $10 million annually, following the Buffaloes’ flirtation with both a Big 12 Championship Game berth and potential College Football Playoff spot last season.

But 2025 isn’t about building on success with established stars. It’s about proving the program can sustain excellence without them.

Star Power Exodus Creates Massive Opportunities

The 2025 Buffaloes are essentially a new team.

Gone are the cornerstones of Colorado’s resurgence:

  • Quarterback Shedeur Sanders
  • Two-way star and Heisman Trophy winner Travis Hunter (drafted No. 2 overall by Jacksonville)
  • Safety Shilo Sanders
  • Eight defensive starters from 2024

Colorado returns only about 50% of its overall production, with just 44% returning on offense (ranking 99th nationally in returning production). But where others see problems, Coach Prime sees opportunity.

“We’ve established expectations. So now you expect us to perform a certain way. You expect us to win. You expect us to be exciting… You just have expectations of us now. That’s what we’ve established.”

The 2025 season represents Phase II of the Colorado rebuild—moving from star-driven success to program sustainability.

The QB Battle Everyone’s Watching

This year’s single most important position battle in Boulder is under center.

Two candidates have emerged to replace Shedeur Sanders:

Kaidon Salter (Liberty Transfer)

  • Threw for 4,762 yards and 47 touchdowns (just 12 INTs) over past two seasons
  • True dual-threat capabilities
  • 25 games of college experience
  • Could provide a new dimension to Colorado’s offense

Julian “Juju” Lewis (Five-Star Freshman)

  • No. 6 quarterback in the 2025 recruiting class
  • Reclassified to join Colorado a year early
  • Phenomenal arm talent
  • Represents the program’s future

The quarterback competition took center stage at Colorado’s spring game, with fans packing Folsom Field to get their first glimpse of these potential stars.

Most insiders believe Salter has the early edge due to his experience, potentially serving as a bridge to Lewis as the young quarterback acclimates to college football. But Coach Prime has never been afraid to play the best talent, regardless of age or experience.

Portal Power: How Sanders Is Rebuilding Through Transfers

If there’s one thing Coach Prime has mastered, it’s the transfer portal.

Colorado has brought in 26 transfer portal commitments for 2025, ranking 20th nationally and 2nd in the Big 12 for transfer classes.

Key additions include:

  • Noah King (S, Kansas State) – four-star transfer
  • Larry Johnson III (OL, Tennessee)
  • John Slaughter (DB, Tennessee)
  • DeKalon Taylor (RB/PR, Incarnate Word)
  • Jehiem Oatis (DT, Alabama)

Unlike the previous year’s massive overhaul (43 transfers in 2024), the 2025 portal class is smaller but more targeted, reflecting a more stable foundation and focus on culture fit.

Coach Sanders has specifically emphasized recruiting “grown men” for positions of need, including defensive tackle, linebacker, safety, cornerback, receiver, running back, tight end, and multiple offensive line spots.

Offense 2025: Can The Buffs Finally Run The Ball?

Colorado’s offense was a Jekyll and Hyde story in 2024.

The good: 32.9 points per game, 4,134 passing yards (318.0 per game), and 37 passing touchdowns.

The bad: An abysmal rushing attack that ranked dead last in the FBS at just 65.2 yards per game and 2.5 yards per carry.

This imbalance proved fatal in losses like the Kansas game, where the Buffs were outgained on the ground 331-42.

To address this glaring weakness, Sanders made perhaps his most impactful coaching hire yet: NFL Hall of Famer Marshall Faulk as running backs coach.

The receiver room still looks promising despite losing Travis Hunter. Emerging talents like Drelon Miller, who caught 32 passes for 277 yards and 3 TDs as a true freshman, will look to step into more prominent roles.

The offensive line, which allowed 39 sacks (3.0 per game) in 2024 despite Sanders’ quick release, continues to be reinforced through transfers. After being a significant liability in 2023, the unit showed improvement in 2024 and is expected to take another step forward in 2025.

Defense: The Foundation Of Colorado’s Future Success?

While the offense gets the headlines, Colorado’s defense significantly improved in 2024.

What you need to know:

  • Allowed 23.1 points and 351.9 yards per game
  • Improved by over 100 yards and nearly 12 points per game from 2023
  • Led the Big 12 in tackles for loss (99) and sacks (39)
  • Cornerback DJ McKinney anchored the secondary with 3 INTs and 9 pass breakups

Despite losing eight of the ten players who started at least ten games, the defense returns more production than the offense and should remain a strength. The addition of Alabama transfer Jeheim Oatis should bolster the defensive line significantly.

Home Sweet Home: A Schedule Built For Success

Colorado’s 2025 schedule features seven home games—the most in over four decades.

Non-conference slate:

  • Georgia Tech (home)
  • Delaware (home)
  • Wyoming (home)

Key home conference games:

  • BYU (Alamo Bowl rematch)
  • Iowa State
  • Arizona State (defending Big 12 champion)

Toughest road tests:

  • Houston (Sept. 13, Big 12 opener)
  • TCU
  • Utah
  • Kansas State

According to early odds from FanDuel Sportsbook, Colorado’s projected win total sits at 6.5 games.

The favorable home schedule, with only one road game within the first month, gives the Buffaloes a real opportunity to start strong, potentially opening 3-1 or 4-0 before hitting the more challenging portion of their schedule.

Beyond Football: The Prime Effect Continues To Transform Boulder

What Coach Prime has built extends far beyond the football field.

The “Prime Effect” has transformed:

The University:

  • Significant shift in campus culture around diversity and inclusion
  • Increased student applications
  • Major new sponsorships and donations (over $10 million in new gifts)

The Economy:

  • Consistently sold-out home games
  • Local business booms on game days
  • Economic impact estimates range from $300-500 million in Sanders’ first year alone

The Brand:

  • National television appearances
  • Constant media coverage
  • Exclusive merchandise lines and collaborations with major companies

This continued national attention and cultural impact remains a powerful recruitment and program-building tool, even as the team transitions away from its star players.

The Bottom Line: What To Expect In 2025

The 2025 Colorado Buffaloes stand at a fascinating inflection point.

Most analysts project a 7-5 or 8-4 regular season, with another bowl appearance likely. While this would represent a slight step back from last year’s 9-4 record, it would still signify remarkable progress for a program that won just one game three years ago.

The question isn’t whether Colorado can win games—they’ve proven they can do that. The real question is whether Coach Prime is building something sustainable beyond star power.

If Salter or Lewis can stabilize the quarterback position, if the defense maintains its trajectory, and if the run game finally becomes a weapon rather than a liability, this could be the year that proves Colorado football is here to stay as a legitimate Big 12 contender.

The next chapter of Colorado football may not have the star power of the previous one, but it might prove more meaningful for the program’s long-term future.

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