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UConn’s New Head Coach Has Won 81 Games, 2 Conference Titles, and has Gone 0-5 Against Ranked Teams. Is That Good Enough?

Mark Haines on February 16, 2026

Jason Candle has won 81 games, two conference titles, and zero games against ranked opponents.

That’s not a typo. In 11 seasons as Toledo’s head coach, Candle went 0–5 against top-25 teams. He’s the winningest coach in Rockets history, a two-time MAC Coach of the Year, and he has never—not once—beaten a ranked opponent.

UConn just handed him a six-year, $15 million contract to take over a program coming off back-to-back nine-win seasons for the first time ever. He inherits more talent, more momentum, and more resources than he’s ever had.

So the question isn’t whether Candle can win at UConn. His resume says he will. The question is whether he can win the games that actually change a program’s trajectory.

81 Wins. Two Titles. Zero Excuses.

The numbers are clean.

  • 81–44 overall (.645) at Toledo—the most wins in program history, surpassing Gary Pinkel
  • 53–25 in MAC play—two conference titles, three division crowns, seven bowl appearances
  • MAC Coach of the Year twice (2017, 2023)—and in 2023 he went 11–3 with an undefeated conference record and a top-25 ranking
  • 10 NFL Draft picks during his tenure, including Quinyon Mitchell as a first-round selection in 2024—Toledo’s first in 31 years

That’s not a coach who got hot for two years. That’s a decade of sustained, documented competence at a level where most coaches flame out in four.

The Number That Should Worry You: 0–5

Candle’s career splits reveal exactly who he is as a coach—and where his limitations live.

SplitWLWin %CHS Take
Overall8044.645Proven winner
Home4927.645Solid, not dominant
Away2611.703Process travels
Neutral Site56.455Red flag
vs. Ranked05.000Big red flag
Late Season2617.605Finishes strong enough
Bowl Games2510.714Elite when prepped

Two numbers jump off the page.

0–5 vs. ranked opponents. In 11 years at Toledo, Candle never beat a top-25 team. Not once. His teams were excellent at beating their peers and very good in bowl games when they had extra prep time. But when they stepped up in class, they lost. Every single time.

5–6 on neutral fields. Conference title games, showcase matchups, the moments where perception shifts—Candle’s teams went sub-.500 in those environments. That’s not disqualifying, but it’s a pattern worth tracking.

The bright spot nobody is talking about: his .703 road winning percentage. That’s better than his home mark, and it tells you his system and his preparation travel. He doesn’t need a home crowd to win. For an Independent program that plays half its games away from Rentschler Field, that matters.

His bowl record (.714) confirms the obvious—when Candle has time to game-plan and a clear target, he delivers. That bodes well for UConn’s annual one-off matchups against Power programs.

He’s Already Done This Job

Context makes this hire look even better than the raw numbers.

  • He’s already done this job. Toledo and UConn have the same structural challenge: creative scheduling, national recruiting footprint, limited built-in advantages. Candle spent 15 years figuring out how to win without Power conference resources. UConn needs exactly that.
  • He inherits a healthier program. Jim Mora took UConn from 1–11 to back-to-back nine-win seasons. Candle walks into a roster with real NFL talent (Skyler Bell was an All-American), a culture of winning, and a fanbase that filled Rentschler Field in 2025. This is the best starting position any UConn coach has ever had.
  • The offensive identity translates. Candle built his career on efficient QB play, heavy RPO and play-action usage, and functional run games that keep the offense on schedule. UConn just had a top-15 scoring offense averaging 36.9 points per game. The system shouldn’t require a complete reboot.
  • Six-year deal, $15 million total. At $2.515 million annually, UConn is signaling this is a program-builder hire, not a bridge. They’re giving him the runway to develop, which is exactly what a coach with Candle’s profile needs.

60 New Players, Zero Margin for Error

This hire isn’t without landmines.

1. The roster churn is massive. Candle has added roughly 60–70 new players via the portal and recruiting while rebuilding the entire coaching staff. That’s not a tweak—it’s a demolition and rebuild. Year one could be volatile while the new pieces learn to play together.

2. The MAC-to-Independence translation isn’t guaranteed. Toledo played in a conference with built-in rivalries, a championship game, and a clear competitive structure. UConn’s schedule is a patchwork of one-offs against Power programs, fellow Independents, and G5 opponents. That’s a fundamentally different preparation challenge every single week.

3. The Fenway Bowl was a preview of the transition risk. UConn closed 2025 with a 41–16 loss to Army in the Fenway Bowl—with the starting QB, backup QB, and All-American receiver all sitting out. Multiple starters had already left for the portal. That game showed what happens when a program is caught between coaching staffs, and Candle will need to fill those holes fast.

4. The ceiling question is real. Candle’s 0–5 record against ranked teams and sub-.500 on neutral fields hint that his operational model—maximize efficiency, outprepare peers, develop mid-tier talent—may cap out before it reaches “top-25 contender” territory. Unless the talent level rises meaningfully, UConn is more likely to see consistent seven-to-nine-win seasons than breakthrough 11-win campaigns.

Right Coach, Right Job — But Is It Enough?

This is a high-floor, moderate-ceiling hire that matches UConn’s reality.

  • Process grade: A–. Proven G5 winner with a decade of stability, strong age curve (46), no character red flags, and an endorsement from Matt Campbell. David Benedict recruited him aggressively—including enlisting Geno Auriemma to close the deal. That’s how you hire.
  • Fit grade: A. The schematic and situational alignment is as clean as you’ll find. His entire career has been solving exactly the problem UConn faces: how to win consistently without built-in structural advantages.
  • Ceiling grade: B. His profile says “very good G5/Independent operator,” not “obvious New Year’s Six disruptor.” Think sustained competence with occasional spikes when the schedule breaks right—not a Boise State or early-UCF style transformation.
  • Risk grade: B–. The massive early roster churn and MAC-to-Independence translation are legitimate concerns. Year one turbulence is baked in. The question is whether Candle’s process can absorb the disruption and stabilize by year two.

Bottom line:

Bowl eligibility should be the baseline expectation. Seven-to-eight wins in a good year is realistic. And the upside—living in that seven-to-nine-win band most seasons, flirting with the back of the rankings when the schedule breaks right—is exactly what a program at UConn’s resource tier should be targeting.

The Huskies didn’t swing for the fences with this hire. They hired the right coach for the right job at the right time.

Whether that’s enough depends entirely on where UConn thinks its ceiling should be.

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Tavita Pritchard Helped Jayden Daniels Win Rookie Of The Year. Now He Has To Rebuild A Stanford Program That Went 6–18 Under Troy Taylor. That’s A Very Different Job.

Mark Haines on February 12, 2026

Stanford just made the most Stanford hire in modern college football.

Tavita Pritchard is a Cardinal lifer:

  • Former Stanford QB
  • Long-time assistant
  • Offensive coordinator under David Shaw
  • Most recently the quarterbacks coach in Washington who helped Jayden Daniels win Offensive Rookie of the Year and reach the NFC Championship Game

Everyone in Palo Alto loves this hire. Andrew Luck hand-picked him. The institution exhaled. The press conference was warm and fuzzy.

Here’s the problem.

Fit doesn’t win football games. And Stanford just went 6–18 under Troy Taylor and 4–7 under Frank Reich. Pritchard isn’t walking into a program that needs a hug. He’s walking into a rebuild.

So the real question isn’t whether Pritchard belongs at Stanford. He obviously does.

The question is whether belonging there is enough to fix what’s broken.

Stanford Didn’t Hire A Coach. They Hired A Culture Reset.

This is a culture-and-alignment play, not a splash hire.

Troy Taylor’s exit was ugly. Back-to-back 3–9 seasons. Workplace culture issues that triggered internal investigations. Then a one-year Frank Reich band-aid that went 4–7. By the time Stanford started this search, the program wasn’t just losing football games. It was losing trust.

Luck’s GM model is built around one idea: long-term alignment with Stanford’s identity. That means the head coach needs to understand:

  • How admissions actually works
  • What the academic calendar does to your recruiting calendar
  • The kind of kid Stanford can and can’t get
  • How far the portal and NIL ceiling really stretches in Palo Alto

Pritchard checks every one of those boxes. A “safe outsider” was never going to be safer politically than a plugged-in alum Luck can personally vouch for.

If your lens is “did they hire someone who can navigate Stanford’s politics, academics, and GM structure,” this is an A+ answer.

His QB Development Resume Is The Strongest Card In His Hand

Pritchard’s track record with quarterbacks is legitimately deep.

He spent years in Stanford’s QB room, then went to Washington for three seasons and worked alongside Kliff Kingsbury to co-build a top-5 offense around Jayden Daniels. Kingsbury handled the call sheet and macro design. Pritchard ran the QB room, shaped what actually made it into the game plan based on what his guys saw on film, and built what Kingsbury called the “tightest and most unified” quarterback room he’d ever seen.

That collaboration powered an NFC Championship Game run.

Here’s why that matters for Stanford specifically. The kind of high-GPA four-star quarterback Stanford targets isn’t choosing between Stanford and Alabama. He’s choosing between Stanford and Northwestern, or Stanford and Duke. When the head coach can say “I just developed an Offensive Rookie of the Year and reached the NFC title game,” that pitch lands differently than another coordinator’s promises.

The identity he’s selling is coherent too:

  • Pro-style, QB-centric offense
  • Physical run game
  • Modernized version of the Harbaugh/Shaw template he grew up in

In an ACC that doesn’t defend power football particularly well outside the top tier, that identity has a lane.

The upside case is straightforward. QB recruiting ticks up, the offense stabilizes around a clear identity, and Stanford gets back to 7–9-win competency while leveraging the expanded CFP as a ceiling play once every few years.

The Resume Has A Hole In It

Let me be clear about the risk here.

Tavita Pritchard has never been a head coach at any level. His only major OC tenure was the back half of the David Shaw era, which ended with the offense trending down and the program sliding into irrelevance. That’s not all on him. But if you’re running a traditional coaching evaluation, the “has run his own program successfully” box is empty.

Here’s what makes the risk compound:

  • He’s inheriting a roster that went 6–18 under Taylor and 4–7 under Reich. This is a full rebuild in a new conference with uncertain resources.
  • The GM-driven structure cuts both ways. Luck can solve some problems, but Pritchard operates inside a corporate hierarchy most first-time HCs never face. If the Luck–Pritchard–AD alignment wobbles, the head coach’s leverage is limited.
  • Early staff reports emphasize Stanford familiarity and NFL seasoning more than recruiting killers. That’s consistent with Luck’s model but increases the risk that the staff can’t recruit above the job’s resource baseline.
  • Stanford’s NIL and credit-transfer constraints are real. The optimistic read is selective portal hits at key positions. The pessimistic read is the talent ceiling is capped no matter who’s coaching.

If you’re grading strictly by traditional hiring heuristics — HC track record, recent college success, recruiting proof of concept — this comes out as a B–/C+ swing, not a slam dunk.

Quinn, Kingsbury, and Mariota All Say The Same Thing

The endorsements from Washington aren’t the usual farewell pleasantries.

Dan Quinn said Pritchard will be “a fantastic head coach” and that he’d be “especially effective at Stanford.” That’s specific. Most coaches leaving for a new job get a generic send-off. Quinn went out of his way to connect Pritchard’s strengths to the specific demands of this particular job.

Kliff Kingsbury went further. “If I had a son playing college football, I’d want him to play for Tavita Pritchard.” That’s not something you say about a colleague you liked. That’s something you say about someone you trust with development.

Marcus Mariota credited Pritchard directly for playing the best football of his career, calling his weekly process and preparation “elite.”

Here’s why this matters for the evaluation. Quinn, Kingsbury, and Mariota all emphasize the same traits:

  • Smart and collaborative
  • Players gravitate to him
  • Competitive without being ego-driven
  • Builds tight, unified rooms

That profile maps almost perfectly onto what Stanford’s GM model is designed to find. Luck wanted a culture carrier, a servant-leader type, someone who thrives inside collaboration rather than demanding full autonomy.

Pritchard is exactly that coach.

How He Grades Out Across The CHS Five Pillars

Here’s how he grades out across our standard evaluation framework.

The Job: B

Elite brand, ACC access, Bay Area talent base. But bruised roster, uncertain NIL muscle, and a GM structure that reduces traditional HC autonomy. B+ ceiling, C+ current condition.

Track Record: C+

Strong QB development resume. Zero evidence as a turnaround architect or program CEO. His only college OC sample is “stagnant offense on a fading roster.”

Recruiting / Roster: B–

The NFL QB pitch gives him a real edge with Stanford’s target recruit. Structural talent limits everywhere else. He’s not walking into a ready-made top-25 two-deep.

Scheme / Staff: B–

Clear identity with a lane in the ACC. Some evidence it can stagnate if he replays 2018–22 instead of evolving. Staff is familiarity-heavy, not recruiting-heavy.

Fit / Runway: A

Stanford lifer. Luck-endorsed. Post-Taylor stability hire. The GM model probably guarantees him more patience than Taylor got, especially if culture and recruiting effort grade out well before the win curve spikes.

CHS Blended Grade: B / B–

An elite-fit, QB-centric swing with more institutional sense than raw resume juice, and a wider-than-normal performance band.

The Ceiling Is Harbaugh-Lite. The Floor Is Comfortable Mediocrity.

Here’s where the rubber meets the road.

On a five-year horizon, the model projects something like this:

  • Median outcome: Solid bowl-caliber Stanford. 6–8 wins by Year 3, culture rebuilt, QB recruiting stabilized.
  • Upside tail: Harbaugh-lite revival. The NFL QB pipeline, Stanford’s brand, and ACC positioning push the program back into the top-25 conversation and occasional CFP contention.
  • Downside tail: A gentle, politically protected 5–7 slog. The roster never catches up, the NIL gap proves structural, and Stanford settles into comfortable ACC mediocrity without anyone getting fired over it.

The Luck/GM structure gives Pritchard a longer leash than Taylor got. The institution wants this to work, and they’ve built the infrastructure around that bet.

But by Year 3, if wins aren’t trending toward 7+, the “perfect fit” narrative won’t save him.

It’ll just make the eventual conversation more awkward.

The PR Says Stanford Found Its Guy. The Data Says Something Different.

The PR around this hire will say Stanford found its guy.

The data says Stanford found a high-upside bet that makes more institutional sense than on-field sense. At least for now. Pritchard is an elite culture hire with a real identity and legitimate QB development upside. But the gap between what Stanford needs him to be — a program rebuilder and CEO — and what he’s proven he can do — coach quarterbacks brilliantly inside someone else’s structure — is exactly where the risk lives.

Time will tell which version of this story gets written.

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Will Stein Turned Bo Nix Into the Most Accurate QB in College Football. Now He’s At Kentucky, and Has Kenny Minchey, with Zero Margin for Error

Mark Haines on February 9, 2026

A first-time head coach with an elite offensive résumé takes over a Kentucky program desperate for an identity. Here’s what the Coaches Hot Seat Scorecard says about the hire.

The Job

Before you grade the coach, you have to grade the job.

Kentucky’s all-time record against current SEC opponents is 169-393-20. That’s not a typo. This has been a bottom-third SEC football program for the better part of a century.

Mark Stoops changed that. Thirteen seasons. A real floor. 61-54 over his last nine years. Hope. Relevance. A reason to show up on Saturdays.

Then the floor collapsed. Kentucky went 7-20 in SEC play since 2022. The offense ranked 105th nationally in 2025. And a 41-0 loss to Louisville on national television made the decision for everybody.

Here’s the reality of this job:

  • Resource gap: Kentucky’s recruiting budget sits in the lower half of the SEC. They’re not Alabama. They’re not Georgia. They’re not even Ole Miss.
  • Market expectations: Vegas set the 2025 win total at 4.5 to 5.5. That’s where the oddsmakers see this program.
  • Financial hangover: The university is eating $37.7 million on the Stoops buyout while paying Stein $28.5 million over five years. That’s $66.2 million committed to a coaching transition at a mid-tier SEC school.

The reasonable standard? Six to seven wins. Bowl games as the norm. A competent offense. A puncher’s chance against non-elite SEC teams.

Who Is Will Stein?

This is the part of the story that makes you lean forward.

Will Stein is 36. A Kentucky native. Grew up attending Wildcats games. Former quarterback at Louisville. Signed a five-year deal in December 2025.

His coaching path tells you how he thinks:

  • 2013-14: Graduate assistant and quality control at Louisville.
  • 2015-17: Quality control at Texas.
  • 2018-19: Offensive coordinator at Lake Travis High School. 26-4 record.
  • 2020-22: Passing game coordinator, then co-OC at UTSA.
  • 2023-25: Offensive coordinator and QB coach at Oregon.

That Oregon stint is what got him this job. Three seasons calling plays for one of the most efficient offenses in college football. But the path before Oregon matters just as much. He spent years grinding through quality control rooms. Learning systems. Building relationships.

He didn’t skip steps. The question is whether the steps he took are enough.

The Quarterback Track Record

This is the strongest line on Stein’s résumé. And it needs to be, because his entire identity depends on it.

Every starting quarterback under Stein’s college play-calling set a career-high completion percentage. Every one.

  • Frank Harris (UTSA, 2022): 69.6%. Career best.
  • Bo Nix (Oregon, 2023): 77.4%. The most accurate single season in college football history.
  • Dillon Gabriel (Oregon, 2024): 72.9%. Career best.
  • Dante Moore (Oregon, 2025): 72.8%. Career best.

Four quarterbacks. Four different skill sets. Four career peaks under the same play-caller.

That’s not an accident. Stein calls it “common sense football.” Attack defensive structures with efficient, schemed throws and explosive plays. His Oregon units ranked first among Power Four teams in three-and-punt avoidance (only 6.5% of drives) and generated the second-most explosive plays nationally.

But here’s the part nobody wants to say out loud: all four of those quarterbacks had elite talent around them.

Bo Nix had Oregon’s receiving corps. Dillon Gabriel had Oregon’s offensive line. The system worked because the supporting cast was already there. At Kentucky, Stein won’t have that luxury. He’ll have to prove the development is real, not just the play design.

That proof starts with Kenny Minchey.

The Quarterback Room: What Stein Has to Work With

This is where the résumé meets reality.

Cutter Boley was supposed to be the guy. The quarterback Kentucky’s previous staff recruited to be the future of the program. He entered the transfer portal and landed at Arizona State. Gone.

So here’s the depth chart Stein inherited:

  • Kenny Minchey (Junior, transfer): The projected starter. Minchey is expected to step in as QB1. This is the first real test of Stein’s development chops at Kentucky. Not Oregon talent. Not UTSA upside. A transfer junior at a program that ranked 105th in total offense a year ago.
  • Matt Ponatoski (4-star, 2026 signee): Signed in December 2025 and held firm through the coaching change. That’s a good sign. Ponatoski is the insurance policy and the future. If Stein is as good as his track record says, this kid should develop fast.
  • JacQai Long (transfer): Depth piece. Portal addition who provides competition and a safety net.
  • Brennen Ward: Roster depth. Not expected to compete for the starting job immediately.

Four quarterbacks. One proven developer. Zero margin for error.

If Minchey takes a meaningful step forward, Stein’s credibility goes through the roof. If Minchey looks the same or worse than what Kentucky had under Stoops, every question about the hire gets louder.

The entire narrative of Year 1 runs through the quarterback room.

The Roster Overhaul and Staff Assembly

Stein didn’t wait for spring practice to start building.

He salvaged Kentucky’s signing class within 48 hours of being hired. Thirteen high school signees. Then he went to work in the transfer portal. By mid-January: 34 additions. Seventeen on offense, 14 on defense, 3 on special teams.

The portal headliners:

  • Lance Heard (OT, Tennessee): Former five-star. Immediate SEC-caliber anchor.
  • Nic Anderson (WR, Oklahoma): Proven Power Four production at receiver.
  • Jovantae Barnes (RB, Oklahoma): 1,281 yards and 12 touchdowns across three-plus seasons.
  • Aaron Gates (DB, Florida): All-conference potential at nickel.
  • Jamarrion Harkless (DL, Purdue): In-state kid from Frederick Douglass who turned down Louisville. That’s a statement.

On the recruiting trail, Rivals’ Steve Wiltfong projects Kentucky to land Seneca Driver in 2027. No. 1 tight end nationally. No. 25 overall. A Boyle County kid staying home.

The staff is fully assembled. Here’s what stands out:

  • Coordinators: Jay Bateman (DC) from Texas A&M, where his defense ranked second nationally in sacks. Joey Sloan (OC) from LSU, where he helped develop Garrett Nussmeier.
  • Oregon pipeline: Cutter Leftwich (OL) and Parker Fleming (special teams, inside WRs) followed Stein from Eugene. The system transfers with the people who know it.
  • Continuity: Anwar Stewart (DL, Kentucky alum, on staff since 2020), Mike Hartline (QB development), Derek Shay (TEs). Stein kept what worked.
  • Power hires: Tony Washington Jr. from Ohio State. Josh Christian-Young from Houston. Chad Wilt from Michigan State. James Gibson as the “Stars” coach, a hybrid nickel role signaling modern defensive philosophy.
  • Louisville connection: Five former Cardinals on staff. The in-state network runs deep.

The infrastructure is built. Now it has to produce.

The Concerns

Nobody should pretend this hire is risk-free.

  • First-time head coach: Stein has never run a program. NIL. Portal management. Recruiting. Staff management. Game-day decisions. Boosters. Media. All of it, all at once, for the first time.
  • Oregon’s talent advantage: His offenses at Oregon operated with elite roster talent. Calling plays for Bo Nix with five-star receivers is different from calling plays for Kenny Minchey with three-star depth in the bottom third of the SEC.
  • The Boley departure: Kentucky’s expected starter left for Arizona State. That’s not a crisis, but it’s not nothing. The QB room is workable. It’s not deep.
  • Thin coordinator track record: Before Oregon, his only college OC experience was one season at UTSA and two years at a Texas high school. The Oregon results are spectacular. The sample is small.
  • Brutal 2026 schedule: Alabama. At Texas A&M. LSU. At Oklahoma. At Tennessee. At Missouri. Louisville at home. Five games where Kentucky could be a double-digit underdog.

The upside is real. So is the volatility.

Coaches Hot Seat Hire Scorecard

FactorAssessment
Recruiting AbilityAggressive. 34 portal additions in January (Heard, Anderson, Barnes, Harkless). 13 HS signees. Competing for 2027 five-stars.
Schematic IdentityElite. Efficient, explosive, player-first. Every college QB peaked under his play-calling.
QB DevelopmentExceptional track record (Harris, Nix, Gabriel, Moore). Now must prove it with Minchey, Ponatoski, and less supporting talent.
Program ConnectionDeep. Kentucky native. Grew up attending Wildcats games. Played at Louisville.
HC ExperienceNone. First-time head coach at any level.
Staff BuildingComplete. Bateman (DC, Texas A&M), Sloan (OC, LSU), Oregon pipeline, Ohio State and Houston assistants. Five former Louisville Cardinals.
Contract Structure$28.5M over five years ($5.7M AAV). 70% remaining salary buyout. Automatic extensions for CFP appearances.
CeilingIf QB development translates, Kentucky becomes a consistent 7-8 win SEC program with occasional upsets.
FloorCoordinator who can’t manage the full scope of an SEC head coaching job. Classic first-time HC flame-out.

CHS Five-Pillar Composite Score

PillarScoreCHS Read
Talent Acquisition7/1034 portal adds, 13 HS signees, competing for 2027 five-stars. Resource-limited SEC job, but maximizing every avenue.
Player Development9/10Elite QB track record. Four QBs, four career peaks. Must now prove it translates without Oregon-level talent.
On-Field ResultsTBD (6/10)No HC sample. 2026 schedule is brutal. 5-7 or 6-6 meets Year 1 expectations given the slate.
Program Culture7/10Kentucky native. Staff fully assembled with strong mix of continuity and new blood. Energy is real.
Contextual Fit8/10Directly addresses UK’s biggest weakness. Smart contract structure. Sensible risk-reward profile.
COMPOSITE7.4/10Above-average SEC hire with high offensive upside and first-time HC risk.
HIRE GRADE: B+: Above-average hire that directly addresses Kentucky’s most glaring weakness. High upside, manageable downside.

Stoops Era vs. Stein Hire

DimensionMark Stoops (2013–25)Will Stein (Incoming)
Record61-54 last 9 years; 7-20 SEC since 20220-0 as HC; elite coordinator track record
Offensive Identity105th nationally (2025); stagnant, predictablePlayer-first scheme; No. 1 in P4 three-and-punt avoidance; top-2 explosive plays
QB DevelopmentInconsistent; revolving door; no pipelineEvery starting college QB peaked under his play-calling. Now has Minchey + Ponatoski
RecruitingStrong in-state, limited nationally34 portal adds; 13 HS signees; Oregon pedigree plus Kentucky roots; 2027 five-stars
Contract Risk$37.7M buyout crippled the department$28.5M total; 70% buyout clause; automatic CFP extensions
Cultural FitBuilt the floor; program outgrew the identityKentucky native; full staff in 8 weeks; mix of continuity and new hires

Hot Seat Outlook

Stein enters with one of the lowest hot-seat positions in the SEC.

Kentucky just absorbed a $37.7 million buyout and committed $28.5 million to Stein. Nobody is pulling the trigger early. He gets a minimum three-year runway unless results are catastrophic.

Here’s how we see it:

  • Year 1 (2026): Grace period. The schedule is a gauntlet: Alabama, at Texas A&M, LSU, at Oklahoma, at Tennessee, at Missouri, Louisville at home. 5-7 or 6-6 meets expectations. Anything above 7 wins is a significant overperformance.
  • Year 2 (2027): The inflection point. The roster should be more “his guys.” Patience thins. Back-to-back losing seasons push him into the 15-20 range on the CHS Index fast.
  • Warning signs: Year 1 offense looks like rebranded Stoops-ball. Minchey doesn’t develop. Bottom-third nationally. Staff churn. Portal exodus. The Boley-to-Arizona State departure becomes a pattern, not an anomaly.
  • Positive signs: Staff fully assembled with SEC pedigree. 34 portal additions. Competing for elite 2027 recruits. Minchey shows real improvement. The infrastructure is being built right.

CHS Projected 2026 Range: 40-60 on the Hot Seat Index. Monitor tier. Not under fire yet.

What to Watch in Year One

Forget the win-loss record for a moment.

With that schedule, the record is almost irrelevant as a standalone metric. Here’s what actually tells the story:

  • Kenny Minchey’s development: This is the whole ballgame. Completion percentage. Decision-making. Does he look like a Stein-coached quarterback? If Minchey takes a real step forward, the hire looks brilliant. If he doesn’t, every question gets louder.
  • Offensive identity: Does Kentucky look like a different team? Explosive play rate. Three-and-out frequency. Yards per play. The numbers will matter more than the scoreboard against Alabama.
  • Matt Ponatoski’s trajectory: The 4-star signee who stayed through the coaching change. Is he developing behind Minchey? Is the pipeline being built? Year 1 reps for a freshman tell you a lot about the program’s future.
  • Recruiting trajectory: The 2027 class. Seneca Driver. In-state battles with Louisville. If Stein keeps winning those fights, the program is trending up.
  • Staff stability: Does the staff gel? First-time head coaches live and die by the people around them. Early departures would be a red flag.

The wins will follow if those indicators point in the right direction. Or they won’t. And we’ll know by Year 2.

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Cal Hired a First-Time Head Coach With Zero HC Experience, an Elite Recruiting Resume, and a Trail of Controversy. Here’s Why It Might Work.

Mark Haines on February 6, 2026

Cal just made the most important football hire in the program’s modern history.

On December 4, 2025, the Bears named Oregon defensive coordinator Tosh Lupoi as their 35th head football coach. Five-year deal. First-time head coach. A former Cal defensive lineman returning to an alma mater that hasn’t finished a season ranked in the AP poll since 2006.

The hire came less than two weeks after Justin Wilcox was fired following a sloppy 31–10 Big Game loss to Stanford. A loss that punctuated nine seasons of well-meaning mediocrity. Wilcox went 48–55 overall. 26–47 in conference. Zero winning conference records. Ever.

GM Ron Rivera (hired in March 2025 to overhaul the program) looked at that ceiling and decided it was no longer acceptable.

So: is Lupoi the right guy to blow through it?

The Short Answer

This is a high-upside, moderate-risk hire that makes a lot of sense for where Cal is right now.

Lupoi checks nearly every box a program in Cal’s position desperately needs:

  • Elite recruiting ability: Arguably the best recruiter on the West Coast
  • Deep institutional connection: Cal alum, Bay Area native, Tedford coaching tree
  • Championship-level résumé: Saban at Alabama, Lanning at Oregon
  • Immediate results: 32-man portal class, star QB retained, NFL alumni rallying

He also comes with legitimate concerns. No head coaching experience at any level. Some character questions from his past. And a mixed track record the one time he ran a defense solo at Alabama.

Let’s break it all down.

What Makes This Hire Promising

Recruiting Is the Calling Card

This is where Lupoi separates from every other candidate Cal could have hired.

He was named Rivals.com National Recruiter of the Year in 2010 while at Cal. He’s landed elite talent everywhere he’s been. And his recruiting footprint includes names that span programs, conferences, and decades:

  • At Cal: Keenan Allen, Cameron Jordan, Tyson Alualu (two first-round NFL Draft picks)
  • At Washington: Shaq Thompson (first-round pick)
  • At Alabama: Najee Harris, Jaylen Waddle, Trevon Diggs
  • At Oregon: Helped assemble rosters that reached back-to-back College Football Playoffs

For a Cal program that struggled to attract top talent even in the Pac-12, and now must compete for resources in the ACC, this skill set is arguably more important than any X’s-and-O’s credential on the market.

And the early returns are already proving the point.

Lupoi assembled a 32-man transfer portal class that ranks 13th nationally according to 247Sports.

First among all ACC teams. He beat out programs like LSU, Indiana, Georgia, and Ole Miss for key commitments. Here are some of the headliners:

  • Adam Mohammed (RB, Washington): Top-5 portal running back nationally
  • Chase Hendricks (WR, Ohio): Top-100 transfer
  • Ian Strong (WR, Rutgers): Top-50 portal player per On3
  • Kingston Lopa (S, Oregon): 6’5, 210-pound former four-star who followed Lupoi from Eugene
  • Solomon Williams (DE, Texas A&M): Chose Cal over multiple SEC offers

Jared Goff has been publicly boosting Lupoi’s recruiting efforts. Cameron Jordan and DeSean Jackson visited Berkeley. Multiple Cal NFL alumni showed up at Memorial Stadium during Super Bowl week to show their support.

That kind of immediate portal activity from a first-time head coach is rare. That kind of alumni engagement is rarer.

A Résumé Built in Championship Environments

Lupoi didn’t learn his craft at mid-major programs hoping to get noticed.

He learned it from the best coaches in college football. And then proved he belonged in the NFL, too. Here’s the career arc:

  • Alabama (2014–2018): Five years under Nick Saban. Rose from analyst to co-DC to sole defensive coordinator. Part of two national championship teams (2015, 2017). Alabama led the nation in scoring defense in 2016 (13.0 ppg) and 2017 (11.9 ppg).
  • NFL (2019–2021): Three years coaching defensive line for the Cleveland Browns, Atlanta Falcons, and Jacksonville Jaguars.
  • Oregon (2022–2025): Four seasons as Dan Lanning’s defensive coordinator. Top-25 defense in each of his last three seasons. Top-3 nationally in total defense in 2025. Two-time Broyles Award finalist.

He even stayed to coach Oregon through their 2025 College Football Playoff run, flying back and forth between Eugene and Berkeley to recruit for Cal between playoff games.

That’s a coordinator who has proven he can build and sustain elite defenses at the highest levels of the sport.

The Cal Connection Matters More Than Usual

Most coaching hires come with a press conference quote about “love for the program.”

Lupoi doesn’t need the script. He played defensive line at Cal from 2000 to 2005. He attended De La Salle High School in the Bay Area, one of the most storied prep programs in the country. He began his coaching career in Berkeley under Jeff Tedford, becoming the youngest full-time coach in Cal football history at age 26.

He was part of Tedford’s 2004 team that went 10–2 with Aaron Rodgers at quarterback and reached No. 4 in the nation. That’s not a talking point. That’s a lived experience.

Rivera specifically emphasized that any coaching candidate had to genuinely want the Cal job. Multiple former high-profile players advocated publicly (and privately) for Lupoi to get the position. And within 48 hours of being named head coach, Lupoi flew to Hawaii to personally recruit star freshman QB Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele.

He secured his return for 2026.

Sagapolutele Changes the Equation

Retaining Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele was Lupoi’s first major test as head coach.

He passed it immediately. The freshman quarterback became the first player in FBS history to throw for at least 200 yards in each of his first 12 games. He finished with 3,117 yards, 17 touchdowns, and 9 interceptions. And Cal has a pipeline of sending quarterbacks to the NFL as first-round picks. Aaron Rodgers and Jared Goff both walked through Berkeley on their way to the pros.

Having a franchise quarterback already on the roster gives Lupoi a runway that most first-time head coaches never get.

Legitimate Concerns

Zero Head Coaching Experience

This is the elephant in the room.

Lupoi has never been a head coach at any level. Not in college. Not in high school. Not anywhere. He’ll need to manage an entire program. And the jump from coordinator to CEO is enormous:

  • Offense and special teams: not just defense
  • Staff hiring and retention: Building a full coaching operation from scratch
  • NIL strategy and budget allocation: The new lifeblood of college football
  • Media obligations, academic compliance, donor relations: The CEO stuff that coordinators never touch

The leap from coordinator to head coach is historically about a coin flip in terms of outcomes. For every Dan Lanning, there’s a Todd Grantham. For every Kirby Smart, there’s a Jeremy Pruitt.

The CEO skills required to run a program are fundamentally different from the position-specific expertise of a coordinator.

Character Questions From the Past

Lupoi’s career history includes a few red flags.

None of them are disqualifying on their own. But taken together, they’re worth acknowledging:

  • Fake injury scandal (2010): Suspended one game after admitting he told a player to fake an injury during a game against Oregon to slow Chip Kelly’s no-huddle offense. He was one of the few coaches who actually owned up to a tactic that was widespread at the time.
  • Controversial departure (2012): Left Cal for Washington and took several highly ranked recruits with him, including five-star defensive player Shaq Thompson. The move created lasting bad blood among some in the Cal community.
  • Recruiting investigation: Investigated for alleged recruiting violations at Washington. He was later acquitted, but the investigation contributed to a period of unemployment before Saban hired him at Alabama.

These incidents are a decade old. But Cal fans remember them.

The 2018 Alabama Question

Here’s the concern that’s harder to dismiss.

Lupoi’s overall time at Alabama was successful. Two national championships. Elite defensive units. A pipeline of first-round draft picks under his position coaching. But the one year he ran the defense solo as the full defensive coordinator (2018) was widely seen as a step back from the elite standards Saban’s program demands.

He moved to the NFL the following year rather than staying on staff. Some reporting suggests he was pushed out.

The counter-argument is Oregon.

His four-year run as Lanning’s DC produced consistently elite defenses and two Broyles Award finalist nominations. Top-3 nationally in total defense in his final season. Top-25 units in each of his last three years. The question is whether his best work requires an elite head coach above him, or whether the Oregon tenure proves he’s matured past the 2018 stumble.

Four years of sustained excellence is a strong rebuttal. But it doesn’t completely erase the question.

Early Program-Building Signals

What Lupoi has done in his first two months tells us a lot about his approach.

  • Young, aggressive coaching staff. OC Jordan Somerville (29) came from the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, where he helped develop Baker Mayfield. DC Michael Hutchings (30) came from the Minnesota Vikings. Both are first-time coordinators. Lupoi is betting on upside and energy over experience.
  • Oregon pipeline. Four staffers followed Lupoi from Eugene, including analysts who worked with Bo Nix and Dillon Gabriel. He’s transplanting the systems and culture he helped build at Oregon.
  • Increased investment. Lupoi secured a commitment from Cal’s administration to raise the coaching salary pool to the upper tier of the ACC. He stated publicly he would not have taken the job otherwise. Cal is fully funded for revenue-sharing with players in 2026.
  • Relentless pace. His wife told reporters he hasn’t had 48 consecutive hours off since August. He juggled Oregon’s playoff run and Cal’s portal recruiting simultaneously, flying to Berkeley for portal visits between playoff games.

That’s the energy of someone who understands the urgency of the moment.

Coaches Hot Seat Hire Scorecard

FactorAssessment
Recruiting AbilityElite. Rivals National Recruiter of the Year, proven across four programs
Schematic ChopsStrong coordinator résumé. Oregon defense ranked top-3 nationally in final season
Program ConnectionDeep. Cal alum, De La Salle product, Bay Area native, Tedford coaching tree
HC ExperienceNone. First-time head coach at any level
Staff BuildingYoung and aggressive. NFL-level OC and DC, Oregon pipeline staffers
Character/BaggageSome red flags (fake injury scandal, controversial departure, recruiting investigation)
Early Roster MovesExcellent. 32-man portal class ranked 13th nationally; retained star QB
Institutional SupportStrong. Rivera GM structure, increased salary pool, fully funded revenue-sharing
CeilingHigh. If recruiting translates, Cal can compete for upper-ACC standing
FloorCoordinator who can’t manage the full scope of a head coaching job

Wilcox vs. Lupoi: Side-by-Side

DimensionJustin Wilcox (2017–2025)Tosh Lupoi (Incoming)
Record48–55 overall, 26–47 in conference0–0 as HC; elite coordinator track
Peak Season8–5 in 2019; no winning seasons afterOregon defense: top-3 nationally in 2025
Bowls / Profile5 eligible, 4 appearances, 1 winNo HC bowls; profile built as recruiter/DC
RecruitingSolid but not game-changing; lost key players to portal annuallyRivals Recruiter of the Year; 32-man portal class ranked 13th nationally
TrajectoryPlateaued at 6 wins; Big Game loss triggered firingHired to reset ceiling; ACC era demands higher talent baseline
Institutional FitDefensive identity; stabilized culture but couldn’t break throughCal alum; explicitly wanted the job; energy and culture reset
Risk ProfileLow variance: clear floor, limited ceilingHigh variance: elite upside, unproven as CEO

The Verdict

Wilcox proved that doing the old Cal job well is no longer enough.

He stabilized the program after the Sonny Dykes era. He restored defensive credibility. He won five of his last seven Big Games. But he never produced a sustained step-change. Nine seasons. Zero winning conference records. And a program that was actively losing its best talent to the portal every single offseason.

The world changed around him. Conference realignment. NIL. The transfer portal. Wilcox couldn’t change with it.

Lupoi is Cal’s bet that an alum with elite recruiting chops can redefine what the job even is.

The Bears are willingly accepting more risk in exchange for a shot at materially raising their talent and relevance level in the ACC. Here’s what the support structure looks like:

  • Rivera GM structure: Institutional support a first-time HC rarely gets
  • Increased salary pool: Upper-tier ACC resources for coaches
  • Fully funded revenue-sharing: Competitive NIL positioning
  • Franchise quarterback: Sagapolutele gives the offense a cornerstone
  • 32-man portal class: Immediate roster upgrade, ranked 13th nationally

This hire makes sense given Cal’s specific constraints. The Bears aren’t a destination that can poach a proven Power 4 head coach. Lupoi represents the best realistic combination of ceiling and willingness to be in Berkeley.

The biggest risk is the coordinator-to-CEO leap. But the infrastructure around him gives him a better runway than most first-time head coaches ever get.

COACHES HOT SEAT HIRE GRADE: B+ High-upside, moderate-risk hire with A-potential if the recruiting translates and he manages the transition to CEO-level leadership.

What to Watch in Year One

Five things that will tell us whether this hire is working.

  • Portal class integration: Can 32 new transfers gel with holdovers by September? The roster turnover is massive.
  • Offensive identity: Somerville is a first-time OC. What does this offense look like built around Sagapolutele?
  • Sagapolutele’s leap: He showed flashes as a freshman but also threw 9 picks and was sacked 29 times. Year two needs to be different.
  • Defensive installation: Lupoi is a defensive mind, but he brought a 30-year-old first-time DC. Can the defense be competitive immediately?
  • Culture and energy: The vibe around the program has already shifted. Can Lupoi sustain it once September arrives and the games count?

Check back at midseason. We’ll revisit the grade.

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Alex Golesh Left South Florida for Auburn and Took 14 Players With Him. Brian Hartline Responded With 31 Portal Transfers and the Richest Contract in Program History

Mark Haines on February 2, 2026

When Alex Golesh left for Auburn the day after South Florida’s regular season finale, he didn’t just leave a vacancy.

He left a program that had gone from 4 wins in three years to 9-3 with a top-5 scoring offense, three straight bowl appearances, and the first College Football Playoff ranking in school history. He left a $22 million indoor facility already built and a $349 million on-campus stadium breaking ground. He left a roster stocked with talent in the best recruiting footprint in the Group of Five.

USF didn’t need a mechanic. They needed a driver who wouldn’t crash it.

His résumé is as blue-chip as any Group of Five hire in the country.

Eight seasons on Ohio State’s full-time coaching staff. During that stretch:

  • 92-11 record
  • A national championship
  • Eight Big Ten titles
  • A climb from quality control to offensive coordinator

He wasn’t a tourist at Ohio State. He was part of the engine.

As offensive coordinator in 2025, Hartline ran a top-15 scoring offense and a top-25 passing attack. His quarterback was a Heisman contender. His receiver room produced a Biletnikoff finalist. Before that, he built what’s widely considered the best wide receiver development pipeline in college football, sending talent to the NFL every single year.

There’s no coordinator in the country who was more ready for this jump.

But the situation is what makes this hire different.

Most first-time head coaches inherit a mess. Hartline doesn’t. Golesh rebuilt the roster, installed a culture, and proved the job could produce wins at a level USF hadn’t seen in over a decade. The infrastructure investment is the most aggressive in the American Athletic Conference. And it’s not close.

USF also put its money where its mouth is:

  • Hartline’s assistant pool starts at $6.2 million, up from $4.5 million under Golesh
  • His personal deal is six years, $21 million guaranteed, the richest in program history
  • The Board of Trustees approved a $22.5 million internal loan for athletics
  • A $16 million revenue-sharing increase is already funded

That kind of institutional commitment signals patience. And patience is what first-time head coaches need most.

Four American coaches just jumped to Power Four jobs. The door is wide open.

The league is in transition. The door to an AAC title is as wide open as it’s been in years. Hartline doesn’t just have a good job. He has a good job at the right time.

But that open door swings both ways.

He’s never been a head coach. Not at any level.

Every responsibility that separates a coordinator from a CEO is a projection, not a data point:

  • Clock management
  • Staff construction
  • Budget allocation
  • Booster relations
  • Handling adversity publicly over a full season

He’s also never worked outside Ohio State. His entire coaching career, from grad assistant in 2017 to offensive coordinator in 2025, happened inside one building. A building with more resources, more talent, and more institutional support than 95% of college football.

The question isn’t whether Hartline learned from a great program. It’s whether those lessons translate when the safety net disappears.

Golesh took 14 players to Auburn. Hartline brought in 31.

Fourteen key players followed Golesh to Auburn:

  • Quarterback Byrum Brown (3,000-yard passer, 1,000-yard rusher)
  • Multiple starting receivers
  • The lead running back
  • The starting tight end

Hartline attacked the portal aggressively. Thirty-one transfers, first in the American. The headliners:

  • LSU quarterback Michael Van Buren
  • Mississippi State quarterback Luke Kromenhoek
  • Former Ohio State five-star linebacker C.J. Hicks
  • Former four-star Tampa native Bryson Rodgers at receiver
  • Defensive additions from Florida, Minnesota, Kansas State, and BYU

Neither quarterback is a proven FBS starter, and a three-way battle is shaping up to be the defining storyline of Hartline’s debut season.

That quarterback room is the single biggest variable for 2026.

Top 3 on ceiling. Middle of the pack on proof.

The honest answer has two layers.

On ceiling and job strength: top 3-4 in the league. The combination of Ohio State pedigree, recruiting reputation, Tampa’s footprint, and USF’s facility investment gives him more upside tools than almost anyone in the conference.

On proven head coaching value: middle of the pack. He has to sit behind returning AAC coaches who have actually won the league or stacked double-digit-win seasons.

Hartline has the best job in the American — whether he’s the best coach in the American won’t be clear until November.

On the Coaches Hot Seat pressure scale, Hartline enters at a 3 out of 10.

Is this a good hire for USF? Yes.

What we know:

  • Elite development track record
  • National recruiting brand
  • Blue-chip coaching pedigree
  • A program already pointed in the right direction
  • Institutional investment that signals long-term commitment

What we don’t know:

  • Whether he can manage a full program
  • Whether his offense meshes with inherited personnel and portal additions
  • Whether 31 new players build chemistry fast enough
  • Whether a first-time head coach handles mid-season adversity

That 3 becomes a 6 fast if the Bulls drop to 6-6 while Auburn wins with their old quarterback.

The job is too well-resourced, the conference too disrupted, and the institutional patience too clearly communicated for anyone to reasonably expect a quick trigger. Year 1 is a grace period.

Golesh left the bar at 9-3 with a CFP ranking. The stadium construction cranes are visible from campus. And Auburn is about to take the field with USF’s old quarterback.

The floor is high. The ceiling is higher. The margin for error is thinner than most first-time coaches get.

Early projections have USF as a top-tier AAC contender: an 8-to-10-win, conference-title-chase profile, driven by a top-15 portal class and a favorable schedule.

The green quarterback room is the main brake on breakout upside.

It’s good. It might be great.

We’ll know by Thanksgiving.

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Is Blake Anderson a Good Hire for Southern Miss? Yes. Is He a Great Hire? Probably Not.

Mark Haines on January 29, 2026

When Charles Huff bolted for Memphis after just one season, Southern Miss had a choice to make.

Swing big on another rising star. Roll the dice on an unproven coordinator. Or promote the 56-year-old offensive coordinator who already had the keys to the building.

Athletic Director Jeremy McClain chose door three. Three days after naming Blake Anderson interim coach, he removed the interim tag entirely.

The message was clear: stability over splash.

But does the data support that decision?

Anderson’s résumé is exactly what G5 programs dream of.

Ten seasons as an FBS head coach. A 74-55 overall record. Three conference championships—two Sun Belt titles at Arkansas State (2015, 2016) and a Mountain West title at Utah State (2021). Nine bowl appearances. A .663 winning percentage in conference play.

That last number matters. Conference record is where coaches prove they can win the games that define their programs, not just schedule soft non-conference opponents and pad their overall numbers.

Anderson knows how to win league games.

He also knows Southern Miss.

This is his second stint in Hattiesburg – he served as offensive coordinator and quarterbacks coach from 2008-11 under Larry Fedora. When McClain announced the hire, he cited Anderson’s “respect of the players and the staff throughout the Duff Center” as a key factor.

Translation: the locker room wanted this. That matters more than people think in the transfer portal era.

Here’s where things get interesting.

We ran Anderson through our Splits Profile – a scoring system that measures how coaches perform across different game contexts. The breakdown:

CategoryBlake AndersonCharles Huff
Overall W–L74–55 (.574)39–25 (.609)
Home W–L40–30 (.571)25–17 (.595)
Away W–L31–18 (.633)13–6 (.684)
Neutral W–L3–6 (.333)1–2 (.333)
Late season W–L24–18 (.571)13–8 (.619)
vs Ranked W–L2–8 (.200)1–2 (.333)
Bowls W–L4–6 (.400)1–2 (.333)
Splits Profile8.0/108.0/10

Same score.

On paper, Anderson and Huff grade out as the exact same type of coach. Both strong in overall and road performance. Both weak in big-stage games against ranked opponents. Both solid late-season closers.

The difference is sample size. Anderson’s numbers come from 129 games over a decade. Huff’s come from 64 games over five years. Anderson’s track record is deeper—but it also shows more clearly where his ceiling might be.

That ceiling question is the crux of this hire.

At Utah State, Anderson won 11 games and a conference title in his first season (2021). Then the Aggies went 6-7 in 2022. And 6-7 again in 2023. Classic Year One spike, followed by regression to the mean.

Anderson didn’t leave Utah State because of those 6-7 records.

He was fired in July 2024 over Title IX policy violations – the university alleged he improperly handled a domestic violence situation involving a player. Anderson disputes the findings and has filed a $15 million wrongful termination lawsuit.

That’s separate from his on-field performance. But it does explain why a three-time conference champion was available to be an offensive coordinator in 2025.

And as Southern Miss’s OC, Anderson delivered.

His passing offense ranked first in the Sun Belt. The Golden Eagles went from 1-11 in 2024 to 7-6 in 2025—a six-win turnaround that included a five-game winning streak and a Sun Belt title game that came down to the final week.

Yes, Huff built the roster. But Anderson ran the offense that made it work.

The immediate challenge is significant.

Southern Miss had 31 seniors on the 2025 roster. Key contributors like linebacker Corey Myrick (91 tackles, 2 INTs) and defensive end Zae Ponder have already entered the transfer portal. Wide receiver Tychaun Chapman—third on the team in receiving yards—is gone too.

Anderson is essentially inheriting a shell of the team that won seven games.

His staff tells you how he plans to rebuild.

Kyle Cefalo comes in as offensive coordinator—he’s worked with Anderson for nine years across Arkansas State, Utah State, and now Southern Miss. Joe Bolden gets promoted to defensive coordinator after one season as special teams coordinator. Bobby Dodd arrives from Pittsburgh to run special teams.

It’s not a splashy staff. But it’s an experienced one. Cefalo’s offenses at Utah State ranked sixth nationally in total yards last season. Bolden has stops at Ohio State, USC, and Michigan on his résumé.

Anderson is betting on continuity over chaos.

Here’s the honest assessment.

This hire makes sense for what Southern Miss is trying to accomplish right now: protect the floor Huff built, maintain locker room stability during a brutal roster transition, and give Anderson a chance to prove his Utah State results weren’t a fluke.

Anderson has rebuilt programs before.

At Arkansas State, he took over a team that had just lost Gus Malzahn to Auburn and immediately won nine games. At Utah State, he inherited a 1-5 pandemic-shortened roster and won 11 games the next season.

He knows how to take over a broken situation and win quickly.

But Southern Miss isn’t broken anymore.

The question is whether Anderson can take a functioning program and make it better—or whether he’ll settle into the 6-7 to 7-5 range that defined his final years in Logan.

The splits say he’s an 8.0/10 coach. That’s good. That’s bowl-eligible most years with an occasional division title shot when the roster peaks.

But it’s not Huff-level upside. Huff was a rising star who turned Marshall into a conference champion and then repeated the formula at Southern Miss in a single season. Anderson is a known commodity—a veteran who’s done this before and will probably do it again, just not necessarily better than before.

The Verdict

Is this a good hire for Southern Miss? Yes.

Is it a great hire? Probably not.

Southern Miss needed someone who could stabilize the program, retain players through a chaotic transition, and compete in the Sun Belt next season. Anderson checks all three boxes.

But fans hoping for a continuation of the Huff trajectory should recalibrate expectations.

This is a floor-protection hire, not a ceiling-raising one.

Anderson will almost certainly keep Southern Miss bowl-eligible. He’ll probably win the Sun Belt West at least once. And he’ll do it without the drama of chasing the next hot coordinator who might leave after one season anyway.

For a program that went 1-11 just two years ago, that’s not nothing.

It’s just not everything.

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Ole Miss’s New Head Coach Is Already Facing an NCAA Complaint. That’s Not Even the Real Problem.

Mark Haines on January 26, 2026

Eight weeks into the job, Pete Golding is already in an NCAA complaint.

Clemson Head Football Coach Dabo Swinney held a press conference last Thursday and named him directly. Said Golding texted a Clemson signee during class, asking about his buyout. Said he sent photos of seven-figure NIL offers. Said the phone records would prove everything.

We don’t know if he did it.

Ole Miss hasn’t responded publicly. The NCAA hasn’t ruled on anything. The allegations are just allegations.

But here’s what we do know.

You never saw Nick Saban in this position. You never see Kirby Smart in this position. The elite program builders don’t end up named as the defendant in a rival coach’s public accusations before they’ve coached a single spring practice.

That’s not a verdict on tampering.

That’s a data point on the CEO question—the only question that matters for Golding’s future at Ole Miss.

Texts During Class. Seven-Figure Offers. Phone Records.

The specifics are unusually detailed.

According to Swinney, linebacker Luke Ferrelli had already signed with Clemson. He’d enrolled in classes. He’d moved to town and started team activities.

Then Ole Miss came calling.

Golding allegedly texted Ferrelli during a Clemson class, asking about his buyout number. Then came a photo of a contract offering seven figures in NIL money. When Ferrelli didn’t bite immediately, Ole Miss allegedly doubled the offer.

Ferrelli is now at Ole Miss.

Clemson filed a formal tampering complaint with the NCAA. Swinney said the case should be easy to resolve because phone records exist. Either Golding sent those texts, or he didn’t.

The timeline either matches or it doesn’t.

Under NCAA rules, coaches can’t recruit players who aren’t in the portal. Contacting them beforehand is impermissible contact. If Swinney’s account is accurate, this isn’t a gray area.

But we haven’t heard Ole Miss’s side yet.

Maybe there’s context we’re missing. Maybe the timeline is different from what Swinney described. Maybe Ferrelli initiated the contact.

We’ll wait for the facts before rendering judgment on the tampering itself.

The leadership question, though?

That’s already in play.

Saban Never Dealt With This. Neither Does Smart.

When Ole Miss promoted Golding after former coach Lane Kiffin bolted for LSU, the knock on the hire was obvious.

First-time Power 4 head coach. No multi-year track record of roster management. No proof that he could build and sustain the whole operation.

The defensive credentials were never the question.

Golding coordinated SEC championship defenses at Alabama. He won a national title in 2020. He transformed Ole Miss’s defense from an afterthought to a unit that led the SEC in sacks (52) and tackles for loss (120) last season.

The man can coach football.

The question was whether he could run a program.

Program-running means hiring staff, managing NIL relationships, navigating the portal, building culture, maintaining relationships with administrators and boosters. It means controlling the narrative. And critically, it means avoiding self-inflicted wounds that distract from the actual job of winning football games.

Saban was a master of it all.

The machine in Tuscaloosa ran so clean for so long that allegations like this never got oxygen. Same with Smart at Georgia. Those programs operate with a level of discipline and control that keeps the noise outside the building.

Golding just had a rival head coach hold a press conference to publicly accuse him of cheating.

Complete with a timeline, receipts, and a dare to check the phone records.

Whether the accusations are true or not, the situation itself is a failure of program management. Either Ole Miss did something that created legitimate exposure, or they did something that looked like legitimate exposure.

In the CEO chair, both are problems.

He Beat Georgia. That’s Not the Test That Matters Now.

To be fair, Golding has already passed tests most first-time head coaches never face.

When Kiffin left for LSU in the middle of a playoff run, Golding held the program together. He kept most of the defensive staff intact. He welcomed offensive coaches who were literally leaving for a rival—and got them to coach through the CFP.

Then he beat Tulane in the first round.

Then he upset Georgia 39-34 in the Sugar Bowl.

This was the same Georgia team that went to the national championship the year before. This was with a team that 29% of FBS coaches had called the “biggest fraud” in the CFP bracket. This was with half his offensive staff already packing boxes for Baton Rouge.

The Fiesta Bowl loss to Miami ended the run, but 2-1 as a head coach against that schedule is a real résumé entry.

What it proved: Golding can handle the moment.

He can game-plan against elite competition. He can keep a locker room together when chaos is swirling outside. He can win games that matter with everything on fire around him.

What it didn’t prove: That he can build and sustain a program over multiple years.

That he can manage the off-field machinery. That he can avoid the kind of distractions that drain organizational energy. That he can run clean the way the best programs run clean.

The CFP run was a three-game audition.

The tampering allegations are a different kind of test entirely.

The Roster Is CFP-Caliber. The Headlines Aren’t.

Golding inherited a CFP-caliber roster.

He has key commitments from linebacker Suntarine Perkins, defensive tackle Will Echoles, center Brycen Sanders, and defensive back Antonio Kite. He’s bringing in Frank Wilson—the “King of New Orleans” recruiting—as running backs coach. The pieces are there for Ole Miss to compete for another playoff spot in 2026.

But now he’s managing all of that with an NCAA investigation in the background.

He’s got a rival coach who clearly intends to make this a public fight. He’s got a fan base that’s still split on whether promoting him was the right call. He’s got a spotlight on his program for all the wrong reasons.

The floor for Golding’s tenure is still high.

He’s a proven defensive mind with SEC title credentials and a roster that should win nine or ten games almost by default. If the offense stays functional under new coordinator John David Baker and the defense continues at elite levels, Ole Miss will be fine.

The ceiling, though?

That depends on whether Golding can prove he’s more than a great position coach who got promoted. It depends on whether he can control the machine the way Saban controlled Alabama and Smart controls Georgia.

Right now, the machine is generating headlines he doesn’t want and scrutiny he doesn’t need.

Elite Credentials. Unproven CEO. Clock’s Ticking.

We’re not here to convict Pete Golding of tampering based on one press conference.

Dabo Swinney has his version of events. Ole Miss presumably has theirs. The NCAA will sort it out—or more likely, nothing will happen because nothing ever happens.

But the allegations themselves tell us something.

Eight weeks into his tenure, Golding is navigating the kind of off-field distraction that the best program builders never deal with. The CEO question, the one everyone was already asking, just got a lot more urgent.

Golding’s defensive credentials are elite.

His CFP performance was impressive.

His ability to run a clean, disciplined, drama-free program?

That’s the test he’s taking right now.

And so far, he’s not acing it.

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Pat Fitzgerald Is 17-38 Against Ranked Teams. Michigan State Just Hired Him To Beat Ohio State.

Mark Haines on January 22, 2026

Everybody’s talking about the baggage.

The hazing scandal. The two years away. The “100 percent vindicated” quote that will resurface every time the Spartans lose back-to-back games.

That’s the easy narrative.

But the harder question—the one that actually determines whether this hire works—is hiding in plain sight.

It’s in the splits.

.309 Against Ranked. .469 On The Road. 5-8 In Bowls.

Pat Fitzgerald went 118-106 in 17 seasons at Northwestern.

Respectable. Ten bowl trips. Two Big Ten West titles. Five AP Top-25 finishes.

But peel back the overall record and you find a coach with real vulnerabilities.

Home: 65-44 (.596) Away: 46-52 (.469) vs Ranked: 17-38 (.309) Bowl Games: 5-8 (.385)

That’s a below-.500 road coach.

That’s a coach who won fewer than one in three games against ranked opponents. That’s a coach who went 5-8 in bowl games—games where both teams have a month to prepare.

These aren’t cherry-picked stats.

They’re the games that define whether you’re building a program or just surviving.

Northwestern Was Hard. But That Only Explains So Much.

Northwestern is one of the hardest jobs in college football.

Elite academic standards. A tiny recruiting pool. A fan base that treats sellouts as a pleasant surprise.

The fact that Fitzgerald won anything there is a testament to his culture-building ability.

Michigan State doesn’t have those constraints.

It’s a large state school with standard admission requirements, a passionate fan base, and recruiting access across the Midwest that Northwestern could never match. In theory, Fitzgerald’s ceiling should rise with better raw material.

But here’s the uncomfortable question.

Do the splits improve with better players—or are they baked into his coaching DNA?

His record against ranked opponents wasn’t a talent problem.

It was a performance problem. Scheme. Adjustments. Preparation against elite competition.

At Northwestern, he was almost always the underdog.

We never got to see whether he could win with talent, because he rarely had it. Michigan State is betting the answer is yes.

The splits suggest they should be nervous.

Ohio State. Michigan. Oregon. USC. Penn State. Good Luck.

The league Fitzgerald left isn’t the league he’s entering.

In 2022, the Big Ten West was a knife fight between Northwestern, Iowa, Purdue, Wisconsin, and Minnesota. Winnable.

In 2026, Michigan State’s conference includes Ohio State, Michigan, Penn State, Oregon, USC, and Washington.

The road schedule alone is a gauntlet.

If Fitzgerald’s .469 road record and .309 mark against ranked opponents translate to East Lansing, the Spartans are looking at 5-7 wins as the ceiling, not the floor. And with his late-tenure decline at Northwestern (3-9, 3-9, 1-11 in his final three seasons), there’s evidence he struggled to adapt even before the two-year absence.

That absence matters.

Fitzgerald has been off the sideline since July 2023—the most transformative period in college football history. Full NIL monetization. The transfer portal as the primary roster-building mechanism. The rise of GM and personnel departments.

His Northwestern teams were culture-first, developmental, and scheme-sound.

They were never portal-aggressive or NIL-forward.

Can he adapt at 50?

The splits don’t answer that question. But they don’t inspire confidence either.

If The Splits Hold, MSU Will Have Spent $50 Million On Nothing.

Michigan State structured this deal carefully.

Five years. $30 million total. Heavily incentive-laden.

Year 1 pays $5 million, escalating $500K annually.

Bonuses start at $500K for six wins and climb to $1.5 million for eight-plus. There’s also an automatic one-year extension trigger if he hits seven regular-season wins in any of his first three seasons.

On paper, this looks like smart risk management.

MSU isn’t betting the house—especially after eating Jonathan Smith’s $30 million buyout.

But look closer.

The extension trigger at seven wins is generous for a program that went 5-7 and 4-8 under Smith. If Fitzgerald clears that bar once, MSU is locked in for another year. And if the splits hold—if he’s a 5-6 win coach in this league—what does it actually cost to move on?

Recent buyouts have been coach-friendly disasters.

Mark Stoops leveraged Kentucky into a deal that made him nearly unfireable. Hugh Freeze’s Auburn contract guaranteed generational wealth regardless of performance.

Schools are learning the hard way that buyout math matters more than press conference optimism.

MSU’s deal isn’t in that category.

But it’s not airtight either. If Fitzgerald underperforms, the Spartans will have spent $30 million on Jonathan Smith, another $20-25 million on Fitzgerald, and still be looking for answers.

That’s $50+ million for five years of losing seasons.

A Gamble, Not A Plan.

This hire makes sense on paper.

Fitzgerald elevated Northwestern beyond its resource baseline. Michigan State offers more to work with than he ever had in Evanston. The price is reasonable. The upside is real.

But the splits tell a cautionary tale.

A .309 record against ranked opponents doesn’t magically improve because you moved 100 miles east. A below-.500 road record doesn’t fix itself with better facilities. And a coach who went 7-29 in his final three seasons—then spent two years away from the sport’s biggest structural shift—is not a sure thing.

Michigan State is betting Fitzgerald can adapt, modernize, and win the games that matter.

The splits say that’s a gamble, not a plan.

Coaches Hot Seat Verdict: High-variance, defensible. Clear path to success if he staffs aggressively and embraces the portal/NIL infrastructure. Clear path to another coaching search by 2028 if he doesn’t.

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Eric Morris Was Exciting. Neal Brown Will Be Reliable.

Mark Haines on January 19, 2026

Here’s Why That’s Actually What North Texas Needs.

Neal Brown isn’t a splash hire.

He’s something better for North Texas: a proven program builder who’s already won at this level. While Eric Morris brought schematic creativity and tempo that excited fans, Brown brings a decade of head-coaching experience, 72 wins, and a track record of sustained success that Morris hadn’t yet established. UNT isn’t trading up in the ceiling, they’re trading up in the floor.

That distinction matters more than most fans realize.

At Troy, Brown Was One of the Best G5 Coaches in America

Brown’s numbers at the Group of Five level are elite.

At Troy from 2015-2018, he went 35-16 (.686) with three consecutive 10-win seasons from 2016-18. During that stretch, his .790 winning percentage trailed only Nick Saban and Dabo Swinney among all FBS coaches. He won the Sun Belt title, earned Coach of the Year honors, and went a perfect 3-0 in bowl games—never losing a postseason contest at Troy.

Brown’s Career Splits

SplitCareerTroyWest Virginia
Overall Record72-52 (.581)35-16 (.686)37-36 (.507)
Bowl Games5-2 (.714)3-0 (1.000)2-2 (.500)
Late Season23-14 (.622)11-4 (.733)12-10 (.545)
vs. Ranked4-21 (.160)1-3 (.250)3-18 (.143)
Road Record28-20 (.583)15-6 (.714)13-14 (.481)

The Troy column is what matters for UNT – and those numbers are excellent.

West Virginia Was Harder, But He Never Lost the Locker Room

Yes, Brown struggled in Morgantown.

His 37-36 record over six seasons at West Virginia is mediocre by any standard. The 3-18 mark against ranked opponents is genuinely brutal—a number that reflects the reality of competing in the Big 12 without the resources of Texas or Oklahoma. His teams lost close games they should have won and got blown out in games they had no business being in.

But here’s what the WVU tenure reveals: Brown maintained program stability in a difficult environment. He never had a collapse season. He bounced back to 9-4 in 2023 after two rough years. His teams played hard until the end, and he kept the locker room together when other coaches would have lost the building.

The question is whether WVU exposed Brown’s ceiling, or simply showed what happens when a strong G5 coach faces P5 realities.

Less Tempo, More Balance, Fewer Explosive Plays

The identity shift will be noticeable.

Morris brought a fast, QB-centric Air Raid variant that stressed defenses with tempo. Games were high-scoring, sometimes chaotic, and the week-to-week volatility was part of the package. Brown runs an Air Raid-influenced system too, but his version is more balanced, more methodical, and more willing to lean on the running game.

Expect inside zone, duo, counter, and designed QB runs alongside the mesh concepts and quick game. Brown uses tight ends and H-backs as blockers, not just receivers. His offenses frustrate defenses with efficiency and third-down conversions rather than explosive chunk plays.

The tempo will slow. The risk profile will shrink. The emphasis will shift from outscoring opponents to outexecuting them.

UNT fans trading in a Ferrari for a well-maintained pickup truck – less flash, more reliability.

His Teams Are Tough, and They Finish Strong

Brown’s best teams were defined by toughness and accountability.

His Troy teams played physical, assignment-sound defense. They didn’t beat themselves with procedural mistakes. They trusted the punt, played field position, and understood that complementary football wins G5 conference titles. His stated UNT vision,” fast, physical, tough, disciplined,” isn’t coach-speak.

That 11-4 late-season record at Troy (.733) tells you something important: his teams finished. They didn’t fade in November. They got better when it mattered most.

That’s not a small thing.

Expect Bowl Games Most Years, Conference Titles When It Clicks

Here’s what UNT fans should reasonably expect:

Ceiling: Brown has already proven he can build a 10-win G5 program when the roster, quarterback, and staff align. He did it at Troy. With UNT’s recent momentum and portal access, conference titles and Top 25 seasons over a 3-5 year window are realistic targets.

Floor: His track record suggests bowl-level competence most years, with fewer 3-9 crater seasons than many “system” hires risk. Expect tighter games, better situational football, and a more reliable product than Morris—especially once Brown has a full roster cycle in Denton.

That floor-raising ability is exactly why UNT hired him.

He’s a Stabilizer, Not a Savior, And That’s Exactly Right

Neal Brown is a stabilizer hire, not a savior hire.

He won’t generate the same excitement as Morris. He won’t run up video-game scores. He won’t make your offense appointment television. But he also won’t have the program lurching between 10-win potential and 5-win reality from year to year. He knows how to build something sustainable at this level – and he’s done it before.

For a program that just lost its coach to a bigger job, that continuity and competence matters. UNT isn’t trying to become the next Cincinnati or Boise State overnight. They’re trying to become a consistent winner in the American Athletic Conference.

Neal Brown is built for exactly that.

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Eric Morris Has Never Beaten a Ranked Team

Mark Haines on January 16, 2026

Now He’s the Head Coach at Oklahoma State.

Eric Morris is one of the most exciting offensive minds in college football.

He developed quarterbacks who became first-round NFL picks. He coordinated top-10 offenses at three different programs. He took North Texas from a 5-7 afterthought to an 11-2 juggernaut averaging 503 yards per game—the best offense in the country. When Oklahoma State fired Mike Gundy mid-season and went looking for someone to resurrect a program that had gone 0-17 in Big 12 play over two years, Morris was the guy.

But there’s a number in his résumé that should concern every Cowboys fan.

Zero.

That’s how many ranked opponents Eric Morris has beaten as a head coach.

503 Yards Per Game. First in the Nation.

Let’s be clear about something: Morris can coach offense.

His 2025 North Texas team scored 30-plus points in every single game. They hung 50 on six opponents. They led the nation in total offense and turned Drew Mestemaker into the FBS passing leader. This wasn’t a fluke—Morris did the same thing at Incarnate Word, where he developed Cam Ward before Ward transferred to Washington State and became a Heisman finalist. His fingerprints are on Baker Mayfield’s early development at Texas Tech. Same with Patrick Mahomes.

The man knows how to build a quarterback and design an offense.

His system has evolved from pure Air Raid into something more balanced—a high-tempo spread that can actually run the football. At North Texas, he proved he could win the time-of-possession battle when he needed to. He proved he could close out games. He proved he could build a roster through the portal and develop mid-tier recruits into all-conference players.

None of that is in question.

0-4 Against Ranked Teams. 5-6 on the Road.

Here’s where it gets complicated.

Morris went 22-16 at North Texas. Solid record. But when you break it down by situation, patterns emerge that matter for a coach stepping into the Big 12.

Home vs. Road: Morris was 17-9 at home (.654) but just 5-6 on the road (.455). That’s a 20-point swing in win percentage. At Oklahoma State, he’ll need to win in Lubbock, Austin, Morgantown, and Provo just to stay competitive. The American Athletic Conference road environment is not the Big 12 road environment.

Ranked Opponents: 0-4. Morris has never beaten a ranked team as a head coach. Not once. North Texas played four ranked opponents during his tenure, and they lost all four. Oklahoma State will likely face 4-6 ranked teams per season in the new Big 12.

Late Season: 6-6 in November and December. When games tighten up and defenses have film, Morris’s teams have been a coin flip. That’s not a death sentence—plenty of good coaches hover around .500 in late-season play. But it’s not the mark of a program-builder who closes strong.

Bowls: 0-1. He left before North Texas’s bowl game in 2025, but his only previous bowl as a head coach was a loss.

Add it up and you get a coach who dominates at home against unranked opponents but hasn’t proven he can win the games that define seasons.

He Inherits a Team That Went 0-17 in Conference

Oklahoma State isn’t just a new job.

It’s a disaster.

Morris inherits a program that went 1-10 in 2025 after the university fired Mike Gundy, a coach with 170 wins and two decades of stability, mid-season. The Cowboys went 0-9 in Big 12 play last year. They went 0-8 the year before. That’s 0-17 against conference opponents over two seasons. The roster has been picked apart by the portal. The culture has cratered. The facilities, once a point of pride, now lag behind a conference that includes Texas, Arizona, Colorado, and Utah.

Morris will get time. Athletic director Chad Weiberg has already signaled that year one is about installing culture and identity, not wins.

But “time” in college football isn’t what it used to be.

The portal moves fast. Recruits make decisions fast. Fanbases lose patience fast. If Morris can’t show progress by year two—if he can’t win 5 or 6 games and beat a ranked opponent—the pressure will build quickly. Oklahoma State isn’t a sleeping giant. It’s a regional program that had one exceptional coach for 21 years, and now it has to prove it can win without him.

The Portal Will Decide Everything

Morris has already started bringing North Texas players through the portal.

That’s smart. Those players know the system, trust the coach, and can help install the offense quickly. If he hits on a quarterback, his specialty, Oklahoma State could have one of the more entertaining offenses in the Big 12 by September. The scheme will work. The tempo will be there. The points will come.

The questions are about everything else.

Can he build a defense that complements his offense instead of giving up everything he scores? Can he win in hostile road environments against teams with more talent? Can he beat a ranked opponent for the first time in his career – and then do it again, and again, against a conference full of them?

His ceiling is real. If he develops a star quarterback and nails the portal, Oklahoma State could be back in the Big 12 title conversation within three years.

His floor is equally real. Without defensive improvement and better results against quality opponents, this becomes a fun 6-6 era – entertaining offenses, close losses, and a fanbase that starts asking whether they hired the right guy.

High Pressure. Three Years to Prove It.

Eric Morris is a legitimately good offensive coach taking a legitimately hard job.

He’s never beaten a ranked opponent. He’s never won more than 55% of his road games. He’s never coached in a Power 4 conference. And now he’s walking into a program that just fired a legend, lost 17 straight conference games, and needs to rebuild from the foundation up – in a conference that includes four former Playoff participants.

The offense will be fine.

Everything else is an open question.

Pressure Level: High. Not because he’s on the hot seat – he’ll get at least three years. But the gap between his track record and his new reality is the widest of any first-year coach in the Big 12. He’s built for this on paper. Now he has to prove it against the best competition he’s ever faced.

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