Blog Article

Oklahoma Football 2025: Is This Brent Venables’ Last Stand?

Mark Haines on June 20, 2025

Oklahoma football’s Brent Venables is officially coaching for his job.

After two losing seasons in three years at one of college football’s most prestigious programs, the Oklahoma head coach finds himself in an impossible position. The Sooners’ 6-7 debut in the SEC wasn’t just disappointing—it was a wake-up call that sent shockwaves through Norman and forced the program into crisis mode.

According to 247Sports’ Brad Crawford, Venables enters the 2025 season on the nation’s hottest seat, facing more pressure than any other coach in college football. Oklahoma’s win total at DraftKings sits at just 6.5 wins. At most programs, that might be acceptable. But Oklahoma isn’t most programs.

This is a program with 950 wins, seven national championships, and zero tolerance for mediocrity.

The Numbers Don’t Lie—Venables Is Running Out of Time

Here’s what Venables is up against:

  • A 22-17 overall record in three seasons
  • Two losing seasons (6-7 in both 2022 and 2024)
  • A 2-6 debut in SEC play that left Oklahoma tied for 13th in the standings
  • The program’s worst scoring offense since 1998 (24.0 points per game)
  • A schedule that ESPN ranks as the toughest in college football

“I know the buyout is considerable, but if he suffers a losing season for a third time in four years at Oklahoma, the Sooners are going to be looking for a new head coach after the 2025 season,” Crawford said.

The math is simple. Another losing season equals a coaching change.

Oklahoma Went All-In on a Complete Program Overhaul

When faced with the potential collapse of its program, Oklahoma did something remarkable.

They didn’t just make incremental changes. They burned everything to the ground and started over. The university hired a third-party consultant to evaluate every aspect of the program. What followed was nothing short of revolutionary:

  • Hired two new coordinators (Ben Arbuckle on offense, defensive restructuring)
  • Installed an entirely new front office with seven staffers
  • Brought in former NFL executive Jim Nagy as general manager
  • Added 21 transfer portal players to address critical weaknesses
  • Even hired a new trainer with NFL connections

This wasn’t just roster tinkering. This was organizational warfare against mediocrity.

The crown jewel of this transformation? Landing John Mateer, the No. 1 quarterback in the transfer portal.

John Mateer: The $34.9 Million Question

Everything hinges on one player.

Mateer arrives from Washington State with ridiculous production: 3,139 passing yards, 29 passing touchdowns, 826 rushing yards, and 15 rushing touchdowns in 2024. His 44 total touchdowns led all of college football—more than Heisman finalist Cam Ward (41) and Clemson’s Cade Klubnik.

But here’s what makes Mateer special: he’s reuniting with offensive coordinator Ben Arbuckle, the mastermind behind Washington State’s explosive offense. The chemistry is already there. The system is proven. The question is whether it can translate to the brutal SEC gauntlet.

“John Mateer, the Washington State quarterback transfer—he’s gotta be a guy. He can’t just be someone that comes in there and has 20 touchdown passes. He’s gotta have 30 to 32 touchdown passes for Oklahoma to be a major contender and for Brent Venables to get off the nation’s hottest seat.”

No pressure, right?

Venables Made One Smart Decision: He’s Calling Defense Again

When your job is on the line, you go back to what made you successful.

Venables built his reputation as one of college football’s elite defensive coordinators. At Clemson, his defenses were legendary. At Oklahoma, the defense has actually been the bright spot—allowing just 21.5 points per game in 2024 and ranking 29th nationally in scoring defense.

So when defensive coordinator Zach Alley bolted for West Virginia, Venables made the obvious choice. He’s taking back defensive play-calling duties.

“Why am I gonna call the defense? Because I’m good at it,” Venables said. “I’m confident in it.”

This move accomplishes three things:

  • It puts the defense in the hands of a proven coordinator
  • It frees up resources to focus on offensive improvements
  • It plays to Venables’ greatest strength during a make-or-break season

Smart coaches know when to bet on themselves.

The Schedule From Hell Awaits

Here’s the brutal truth about Oklahoma’s 2025 schedule.

ESPN’s SP+ ranks it as the toughest in college football. The Sooners will face eight teams projected to start the season in the top 25. There are no easy games. No breathers. No margin for error.

The gauntlet includes:

  • Michigan at home in Week 2
  • Auburn, Texas, Ole Miss, Missouri, and LSU in conference play
  • Road trips to South Carolina, Tennessee, and Alabama
  • The annual Red River Rivalry that could define seasons

This schedule could either validate Oklahoma’s transformation or expose it as window dressing. Success against this competition would immediately change national perception. Failure would seal Venables’ fate.

What Success Actually Looks Like in 2025

Forget about playoff dreams for now.

Oklahoma needs to prove three fundamental things in 2025:

  • The offense can score consistently (targeting 30+ points per game)
  • The team can compete physically with SEC opponents week after week
  • Venables can develop the roster depth necessary for long-term success

Most analysts project 7-5 or 8-4, which would represent clear progress while falling short of traditional Oklahoma standards. But here’s the reality: a winning season and bowl appearance might be enough to buy Venables another year.

The key metrics extend beyond wins and losses. Can Mateer throw for 30+ touchdowns? Can the offensive line protect him against SEC pass rushes? Can the defense create turnovers and game-changing plays?

These are the questions that will determine whether Oklahoma’s transformation succeeds or fails.

This Is Make-or-Break Time for Everyone

Oklahoma’s 2025 season represents the ultimate high-stakes gamble.

Venables has bet his career on a complete program overhaul. Athletic director Joe Castiglione has invested heavily in new infrastructure and personnel. The fanbase is demanding immediate results after years of frustration.

In a recent ESPN article, analyst Bill Connelly noted that Mateer and Arbuckle’s additions make Oklahoma “one of the most interesting teams in college football” heading into 2025. The pieces are in place for dramatic improvement.

But potential means nothing in the SEC. Execution under pressure determines everything.

For Venables, 2025 isn’t just another season—it’s his final audition. The combination of Mateer’s proven production, Arbuckle’s innovative system, and a defense with established talent creates the framework for success.

The question isn’t whether Oklahoma has the tools to compete.

The question is whether they can use them before it’s too late.

The Next Billion Dollar Game

College football isn’t just a sport anymore—it’s a high-stakes market where information asymmetry separates winners from losers. While the average fan sees only what happens between the sidelines, real insiders trade on the hidden dynamics reshaping programs from the inside out.

Our team has embedded with the power brokers who run this game. From the coaching carousel to NIL deals to transfer portal strategies, we’ve mapped the entire ecosystem with the kind of obsessive detail that would make a hedge fund analyst blush.

Why subscribe? Because in markets this inefficient, information creates alpha. Our subscribers knew which coaches were dead men walking months before the mainstream media caught on. They understood which programs were quietly transforming their recruiting apparatuses while competitors slept.

The smart money is already positioning for 2025. Are you?

Click below—it’s free—and join the small group of people who understand the real value of college football’s new economy.

Free Subscription
BACK TO THE BLOG ARCHIVE
No related posts found.
VISIT OUR SHOP [COMING SOON]

LOAD MORE BLOG ARTICLES

Blog Article

Vanderbilt Football 2025: The Year Everything Changes

Mark Haines on June 19, 2025

Vanderbilt football is about to prove that 2024 wasn’t a fluke.

The Commodores shocked college football last season with their first winning record since 2013, capped by a bowl victory that had Nashville celebrating like they’d won the national championship. Now comes the real test: can they do it again?

The answer lies in understanding what makes this program different from every other SEC bottom-feeder that has enjoyed a brief moment in the sun before crashing back to earth.

The Foundation That Won’t Crack

Diego Pavia isn’t just returning for his final season.

He’s returning as the most proven dual-threat quarterback in the SEC, a player who accounted for 3,094 total yards and 28 touchdowns while throwing just four interceptions in 2024. His 143.5 passer rating wasn’t a statistical accident. It was the result of a quarterback who understands how to manage games, create explosive plays, and deliver when everything is on the line.

Pavia was selected the league’s first-ever Newcomer of the Year, presented to the league’s top player who had not previously competed in the SEC and was not eligible for Freshman of the Year, according to the official Vanderbilt athletics website.

But here’s what makes his return even more valuable:

  • He’s publicly declared Vanderbilt’s intent to “run Tennessee”
  • He’s already proven he can beat the best teams in the country (see: Alabama upset)
  • He brings the kind of swagger that transforms program culture

Joining Pavia is All-SEC tight end Eli Stowers, who became the first Vanderbilt offensive player to earn first-team All-SEC honors since 2013 after catching 49 passes for 638 yards and five touchdowns.

This isn’t just talent returning—it’s proven, battle-tested production.

The Defense Gets Serious About Stopping People

Vanderbilt’s defense allowed 376.5 yards per game in 2024, which sounds terrible until you realize where they started.

The unit jumped from 126th to 50th in scoring defense and from 104th to 52nd in rushing defense during the 2024 season. That’s not incremental improvement—that’s a complete transformation of identity.

Now they’re doubling down on that progress:

  • Steve Gregory promoted to full defensive coordinator after proving his system works
  • Pass rush specialist Will Smart added to maximize pressure packages
  • Nine defensive starters returning, including linebacker Bryan Longwell (89 tackles) and the Fontenette-Capers pass rush duo (16 combined sacks)

The transfer portal reinforcements tell the story of a program that knows exactly what it needs:

  • Safety CJ Heard from Florida Atlantic brings proven playmaking ability
  • Defensive linemen Mason Nelson (Western Michigan), Jaylon Stone (Miami-OH), and Clinton Azubuike (Northern Arizona) add crucial depth
  • Secondary additions Jordan Mathews (Tennessee) and others address coverage concerns

This isn’t hope-based roster building—it’s surgical improvement of specific weaknesses.

The Schedule That Will Define Everything

Vanderbilt will face seven opponents that reached the postseason in 2024, including College Football Playoff teams Texas and Tennessee.

This schedule doesn’t care about your feel-good story. It will expose every weakness, punish every mistake, and test whether this program has truly turned the corner or just enjoyed a brief moment of overachievement.

The critical dates that will define the season:

  • August 30 vs Charleston Southern – No trap games allowed
  • October 4 at Alabama – The revenge game, exactly 364 days after the upset
  • November 1 at Texas – First trip to Austin since 1903
  • November 29 at Tennessee – The rivalry game that could define the future

October and November will be brutal:

  • Four SEC road games at South Carolina, Alabama, Texas, and Tennessee
  • Home contests against LSU, Missouri, Auburn, and Kentucky that offer opportunities but zero margin for error
  • A November slate that could either cement their reputation or expose them as pretenders

The schedule is college football’s truth serum—and Vanderbilt is about to find out what they’re really made of.

Money Talks, and Vanderbilt Is Finally Speaking the Language

The Anchor Impact Fund has raised over $2.1 million to support athletes, but that’s not the whole story.

The real story is how Vanderbilt is using NIL strategically rather than throwing money around hoping something sticks. They’re targeting specific needs, combining competitive packages with immediate playing time, and leveraging Nashville’s unique market appeal.

Here’s why their approach works:

  • Portal-focused roster building that brought in nine starters for 2024’s breakthrough
  • Strategic targeting of undervalued transfers rather than bidding wars for five-stars
  • Emphasis on holistic development, including financial literacy and branding support

The new NCAA settlement, which allows up to $20.5 million in direct athlete compensation, will still favor programs with deeper pockets. But Vanderbilt has proven you don’t need to outspend everyone—you just need to spend smarter than everyone.

Clark Lea Isn’t Going Anywhere, and That Changes Everything

Their NIL success directly contributed to retaining players like Pavia while attracting impact transfers who might otherwise choose programs with bigger checkbooks but smaller opportunities.

Lea was the first Vanderbilt coach to be voted Coach of the Year by his peers since 2008 and the first Vandy head man to win it outright since 1982, according to Sports Illustrated’s coverage of his SEC Coach of the Year recognition.

But accolades don’t build programs—stability does.

Lea’s contract extension through 2029 provides something Vanderbilt hasn’t had in decades: continuity. His deep connection as an alumnus who played for the program creates emotional investment that transcends typical coaching arrangements.

The coaching staff tells the story of a program that values both continuity and evolution:

  • Offensive coordinator Tim Beck returns with proven success developing Pavia
  • Defensive coordinator Steve Gregory promoted after engineering dramatic improvement
  • Strategic additions like pass rush specialist Will Smart show a commitment to specialized expertise

This isn’t a coach waiting for a better opportunity—it’s a coach building something lasting.

Special Teams: The Advantage Nobody Talks About

Kicker Brock Taylor converted 85.7% of field goals and 97.5% of extra points in 2024.

In a conference where games are decided by three points and missed kicks end seasons, that reliability is worth multiple wins. Punter Jesse Mirco averaged 48.0 yards per punt, providing field position advantages that often proved decisive.

Return specialists Junior Sherrill and Martel Hight both scored touchdowns in 2024, adding explosive potential that can flip momentum in crucial moments.

Special teams excellence isn’t glamorous, but it’s the foundation of every program that consistently outperforms expectations.

The Sustainability Test

Every SEC program has good seasons—few have sustainable success.

Vanderbilt enters 2025 facing the ultimate test: can they maintain competitiveness while navigating elevated expectations, increased media attention, and the constant threat of player defections through the transfer portal?

The answers lie in their systematic approach:

  • Academic excellence (31st consecutive semester above 3.0 GPA) provides recruiting differentiation
  • Cultural foundation built on development rather than just talent acquisition
  • Strategic roster management that emphasizes fit over pure star power

Most analysts project a 6-6 record, but that projection undersells the program’s potential if defensive improvements materialize and key players stay healthy.

Bowl eligibility remains the primary goal, but consecutive winning seasons would represent program-altering achievement in a conference that has historically treated Vanderbilt as a guaranteed victory.

Why This Time Is Different

Vanderbilt football isn’t just building for 2025—they’re building for the next decade.

The combination of Pavia’s final season, strategic roster reinforcement, and coaching staff continuity creates the best foundation this program has enjoyed in over a decade. More importantly, they’ve proven they can develop culture, manage resources, and compete against elite talent.

The schedule provides zero margin for error but offers maximum opportunity for statement victories that could permanently elevate their national profile.

Success in November—particularly against Kentucky and Tennessee—won’t just validate the 2024 breakthrough. It will establish Vanderbilt as a permanent factor in SEC competition rather than an occasional disruptor.

The question isn’t whether Vanderbilt can compete in the SEC anymore.

The question is whether they can sustain that competitiveness while building toward something even greater. The 2025 season will provide the definitive answer to college football’s most intriguing sustainability question.

And for the first time in decades, the smart money is on the Commodores proving that lightning can indeed strike twice in Nashville.

The Next Billion Dollar Game

College football isn’t just a sport anymore—it’s a high-stakes market where information asymmetry separates winners from losers. While the average fan sees only what happens between the sidelines, real insiders trade on the hidden dynamics reshaping programs from the inside out.

Our team has embedded with the power brokers who run this game. From the coaching carousel to NIL deals to transfer portal strategies, we’ve mapped the entire ecosystem with the kind of obsessive detail that would make a hedge fund analyst blush.

Why subscribe? Because in markets this inefficient, information creates alpha. Our subscribers knew which coaches were dead men walking months before the mainstream media caught on. They understood which programs were quietly transforming their recruiting apparatuses while competitors slept.

The smart money is already positioning for 2025. Are you?

Click below—it’s free—and join the small group of people who understand the real value of college football’s new economy.

Free Subscription
BACK TO THE BLOG ARCHIVE
No related posts found.
VISIT OUR SHOP [COMING SOON]

LOAD MORE BLOG ARTICLES

Blog Article

Florida Gators 2025 Football Season Preview: The DJ Lagway Era Begins Now

Mark Haines on June 19, 2025

The Florida Gators are about to find out if their future is as bright as they think it is.

After finishing 8-5 overall and 4-4 in the SEC in 2024, the Gators pulled off something that felt impossible just months earlier. They won their first bowl game in five years. They beat ranked teams. They made people believe again.

But 2025? That’s when the real test begins.

Billy Napier Just Bought Himself One More Year

Here’s what most people don’t understand about Billy Napier’s situation.

He wasn’t retained because he’s suddenly become a great coach. He was retained because DJ Lagway showed flashes of brilliance, and Florida’s administration is betting everything on a 19-year-old quarterback’s potential.

Florida athletic director Scott Stricklin made this crystal clear: “As we’ve seen these past several weeks, the young men on this team represent what it means to be a Gator. Their resolve, effort and execution are evident in their performance and growth each week – building a foundation that promises greater success next season and beyond.”

Translation: We’re not firing Napier because we can’t afford to lose Lagway.

The pressure on Napier in 2025 is enormous:

  • He’s 18-19 as Florida’s head coach
  • That’s the worst winning percentage by a Florida coach since 1949
  • Another mediocre season and the hot seat becomes an ejector seat
  • The schedule is brutal again

Napier knows this is his make-or-break year.

DJ Lagway Is Either Going to Save This Program or Break It

Everything about Florida’s 2025 season hinges on one person.

DJ Lagway finished his rookie season with 1,915 passing yards and 12 touchdowns, helping lead Florida to a 6-1 record in his seven starts. When he played, the Gators looked like a completely different team.

But here’s the thing nobody wants to talk about: Lagway dealt with shoulder and lower body injuries that limited his spring practice participation. He was “an extremely limited participant in the Gators’ spring practice, not even throwing in most of spring and therefore losing an opportunity for crucial reps ahead of a make-or-break season.”

What makes Lagway special:

  • He completed 19 of his 36 deep pass attempts in 2024 for 733 yards, five touchdowns and only two interceptions
  • His 52.8 percent adjusted completion percentage on deep balls led all SEC returners
  • He was named the top deep ball passer returning for 2025 by 247Sports and Pro Football Focus
  • In his seven starts, he upset ranked LSU and Ole Miss teams

The kid has elite arm talent and ice in his veins.

The problem?

If Lagway gets hurt or struggles early, this entire season falls apart. Florida doesn’t have a proven backup. They don’t have elite talent around him yet. Everything depends on a sophomore quarterback staying healthy and taking a massive leap forward.

That’s a lot of pressure for anyone, let alone a 19-year-old.

The Defense Finally Has a Plan (We Think)

Florida’s defense in 2024 was like watching a car accident in slow motion.

They allowed 376.9 total yards per game. They gave up big plays at the worst possible moments. They looked confused half the time.

So what did Florida do? They completely overhauled the coaching staff.

The defensive changes:

  • Ron Roberts promoted to full-time defensive coordinator
  • Vinnie Sunseri hired as co-defensive coordinator and safeties coach
  • New schemes are designed to reduce coverage mistakes
  • Focus on the nickel position to stop big plays

The talent is there. Defensive linemen Caleb Banks (4.5 sacks, 7 TFL) and Tyreak Sapp (7 sacks, 13 TFL) both return. They successfully retained key players who could have transferred.

But coaching changes are always a gamble. New systems take time. Chemistry has to be rebuilt.

Will it work? Nobody knows yet.

Recruiting is Finally Starting to Pay Off

Here’s the one thing Napier has consistently done well at Florida: recruit.

Florida’s 2025 recruiting class ranks in the top 10 nationally. They’re bringing in elite defensive backs, dynamic wide receivers, and impact players at positions of need.

The recruiting momentum:

  • Florida’s classes have finished 32nd, 12th and 10th since Napier arrived in late 2021
  • The 2025 class features blue-chip prospects like Ben Hanks III and Vernell Brown III
  • Many freshmen are expected to compete for immediate playing time
  • The uncertainty over Napier’s future had hurt recruiting, but his retention should help

ESPN noted: “Between defensive backs Jordan Castell, Devin Moore, Dijon Johnson, and Aaron Gates, there were four members of Florida’s 2023 class — signed at the end of Napier’s first full cycle with the program — in the Gators’ starting lineup on defense against Georgia in Week 10.”

The young talent is starting to contribute. The question is whether it’s enough to compete with Georgia, Texas, and the rest of the SEC elite.

The Schedule is Absolutely Brutal (Again)

Want to know why most experts are predicting Florida finishes around .500?

Look at this schedule.

The gauntlet Florida faces:

  • Road games at LSU, Miami, Texas A&M, Kentucky, and Ole Miss
  • Home games against Texas, Mississippi State, Tennessee, and Florida State
  • Georgia at a neutral site
  • Multiple top-25 teams early in the season

ESPN’s Football Power Index projects Florida for a 6-6 regular season, ranking them 12th in the SEC. Most betting lines have the Gators’ win total between 6.5 and 7.5 games.

The early-season stretch is particularly dangerous. Florida travels to LSU in September and hosts Miami. If they stumble early, the pressure on Napier will be suffocating.

This isn’t a schedule where you can afford to have growing pains or figure things out on the fly.

What Success Looks Like in 2025

Here’s the reality most Florida fans don’t want to hear.

Success in 2025 won’t be measured solely by wins and losses. It will be measured by progress.

What progress looks like:

  • Lagway continues developing without major regression
  • The defense shows clear improvement under new coordination
  • Young players contribute immediately and show growth
  • Competitive games against ranked opponents
  • No embarrassing blowout losses

If Florida can hit those markers while winning 7-8 games, that’s actually a successful season given the schedule and where the program was two years ago.

The best-case scenario:

Lagway stays healthy and takes a massive leap. The defense improves dramatically. Florida steals a couple of games they shouldn’t win and finishes 8-4 or 9-3.

The worst-case scenario:

Lagway gets hurt early. The defensive changes don’t work. Florida struggles to win 6 games and Napier gets fired.

Most likely? Florida finishes somewhere between 6-6 and 7-5, shows clear progress, and everyone agrees the program is heading in the right direction.

The Bottom Line: This is Make-or-Break Time

Florida is at a crossroads.

They have a potentially elite quarterback. They have strong recruiting classes. They have momentum from a solid 2024 finish.

But they also have a coach on thin ice, a brutal schedule, and enormous expectations from a fanbase that’s tired of being mediocre.

The 2025 season will determine whether Florida is finally ready to compete with the SEC’s elite or if they’re destined for another few years of frustration.

DJ Lagway holds the key to everything.

The Next Billion Dollar Game

College football isn’t just a sport anymore—it’s a high-stakes market where information asymmetry separates winners from losers. While the average fan sees only what happens between the sidelines, real insiders trade on the hidden dynamics reshaping programs from the inside out.

Our team has embedded with the power brokers who run this game. From the coaching carousel to NIL deals to transfer portal strategies, we’ve mapped the entire ecosystem with the kind of obsessive detail that would make a hedge fund analyst blush.

Why subscribe? Because in markets this inefficient, information creates alpha. Our subscribers knew which coaches were dead men walking months before the mainstream media caught on. They understood which programs were quietly transforming their recruiting apparatuses while competitors slept.

The smart money is already positioning for 2025. Are you?

Click below—it’s free—and join the small group of people who understand the real value of college football’s new economy.

Free Subscription
BACK TO THE BLOG ARCHIVE
No related posts found.
VISIT OUR SHOP [COMING SOON]

LOAD MORE BLOG ARTICLES

Blog Article

Auburn Football 2025 Season Preview: Hugh Freeze’s Make-or-Break Season Arrives

Mark Haines on June 18, 2025

Auburn’s Hugh Freeze is running out of time.

After two straight losing seasons at Auburn, the Tigers head coach faces the most critical year of his tenure on the Plains. Everything that could be upgraded has been upgraded. The quarterback room features a former five-star transfer. The roster is loaded with blue-chip talent from back-to-back top-10 recruiting classes. The transfer portal has been pillaged for immediate impact players.

But none of that matters if Auburn can’t win football games.

The 2025 season isn’t about potential anymore—it’s about production. And for Freeze, it’s about survival in the unforgiving world of SEC football.

Jackson Arnold Solves Auburn’s Biggest Problem

Auburn’s quarterback situation has been solved.

Oklahoma transfer Jackson Arnold brings the exact skill set that Hugh Freeze’s offense demands: dual-threat ability, RPO mastery, and a cannon for an arm. Arnold isn’t just an upgrade—he’s a complete transformation of what Auburn can do offensively.

His 2024 numbers at Oklahoma tell only part of the story:

  • 1,421 passing yards, 12 touchdowns, 3 interceptions
  • 444 rushing yards, 3 touchdowns
  • 131 rushing yards in upset win over No. 7 Alabama

“The fit he is for our offense and Auburn, I couldn’t be more excited,” Freeze said. “He’s a dual-threat guy who understands the RPO system extremely well and throws the deep ball extremely well.”

Arnold struggled at Oklahoma due to receiver injuries and the presence of three different offensive coordinators in one season. At Auburn, he’ll have stability, weapons, and a system designed to capitalize on his strengths.

This is the quarterback Auburn has been searching for since Cam Newton left the Plains.

The Transfer Portal Became Auburn’s Salvation

Auburn attacked the transfer portal like their program depended on it.

Because it did.

The Tigers identified every weakness from 2024 and found proven solutions in the portal. Offensive line struggles? Virginia Tech’s Xavier Chaplin and USC’s Mason Murphy arrive with starting experience. Receiver depth issues? Georgia Tech’s Eric Singleton Jr. brings elite production and versatility.

The defensive side received similar treatment:

  • MAC Defensive Back of the Year Raion Strader
  • Experienced linebacker Caleb Wheatland
  • Multiple defensive backs with Power Five starting experience

Auburn brought in 19 transfers while losing 23 players to the portal. However, the key difference lies in this: most departures weren’t regular contributors, whereas most additions had starting experience.

This wasn’t roster management—this was strategic reconstruction.

Elite Recruiting Finally Pays Dividends

Auburn’s recruiting renaissance under Hugh Freeze has been impossible to ignore.

Back-to-back top-10 recruiting classes have fundamentally changed the talent level on the Plains. The 2025 class ranks No. 6 nationally and includes:

  • Five-star quarterback Deuce Knight
  • Five-star edge rusher Jared Smith
  • Eight of Alabama’s top-10 prospects
  • Multiple ESPN 300 contributors across all positions

“I inherited a program that didn’t have a top-25 recruiting class for 4 years,” Freeze acknowledged. “You’re not going to win in this league [with that]. We’ve now had 2 full recruiting classes, both top-10.”

The talent gap that existed between Auburn and SEC powers has been closed through recruiting. Now comes the harder part: developing and deploying that talent effectively.

Defense Gets Rare Continuity

Here’s something Auburn hasn’t had in years: defensive coordinator stability.

D.J. Durkin returns for his second season leading the defense, providing continuity in a program that has cycled through coordinators at breakneck speed. The 2024 defense showed flashes of dominance when healthy, averaging 7 tackles for loss and 2.3 sacks per game.

The secondary remains Auburn’s defensive strength:

  • Experienced starters Kayin Lee and Kaleb Harris return
  • Transfer addition Raion Strader brings All-MAC credentials
  • Depth improved through recruiting and portal additions

Auburn must replace five of its top seven tacklers, but the combination of returning talent and strategic additions provides optimism for significant improvement.

The defense has the pieces—now Durkin gets an entire season to implement his system without major personnel overhauls.

The Schedule Helps Auburn

Auburn’s 2025 schedule is the most favorable they’ve seen in years.

Ranked 15th nationally in strength of schedule and 12th in the SEC, the Tigers avoid some of the conference’s most dangerous programs while their most significant challenges at Jordan-Hare Stadium.

Key scheduling advantages:

  • Alabama and Georgia both visit Auburn (historically better for the Tigers in odd years)
  • No matchup with Texas, the SEC’s most dominant program
  • Manageable non-conference slate to build momentum
  • Oklahoma visit provides revenge game opportunity against Arnold’s former team

“I feel a lot better than I have about our talent, our size, athleticism, and depth,” Freeze shared. “I still believe we need one more [signing] class to get to where we need to be, but I don’t sense any panic.”

The schedule provides Auburn with realistic paths to 7-8 wins if the talent translates into performance.

Hugh Freeze’s Job Depends on One Thing

Bowl eligibility isn’t a goal for Auburn in 2025—it’s a requirement.

“I’m not a fool, I think we’ve got to go to a bowl game,” Freeze said publicly. This represents the minimum acceptable outcome after two years of elite recruiting and massive roster investment.

The pressure couldn’t be more obvious:

  • Two straight losing seasons
  • Back-to-back years missing bowl games
  • Massive financial investment in roster construction
  • Fan patience is completely exhausted

Freeze’s track record suggests confidence in reaching this baseline. In 12 seasons as an FBS head coach, he’s failed to win six games only twice: his final year at Ole Miss and his second year at Auburn.

But Auburn hasn’t just invested in talent—they’ve invested in Freeze’s vision. If that vision doesn’t produce wins in 2025, both will be replaced.

The Areas That Will Define Success

Auburn’s 2025 season will be determined by improvement in specific areas.

Red zone efficiency was a key factor in the Tigers’ struggles in 2024, ranking 122nd nationally in touchdown percentage. Arnold’s dual-threat ability and upgraded receivers should immediately address this critical weakness.

Special teams ranked 84th nationally in SP+ efficiency, consistently hurting field position and momentum. New specialists and renewed emphasis represent clear priorities.

Turnover margin must improve after Auburn averaged 1.8 giveaways while forcing only 1.1 takeaways per game. Arnold’s decision-making will be crucial in flipping this equation.

These aren’t complex problems—they’re execution issues that talent alone should be able to solve.

What Success Looks Like

Vegas set Auburn’s win total at 7.5 games, reflecting cautious optimism about the program’s trajectory.

ESPN’s SP+ model projects Auburn to rank No. 25 overall, with an average of 6.9 wins. The defense is projected to rank 19th nationally, while the offense is projected to rank 48th. These numbers suggest a team capable of bowling with upside for more.

Realistic 2025 benchmarks:

  • Bowl eligibility (minimum acceptable outcome)
  • Competitive showings against Alabama and Georgia at home
  • Road victory against Oklahoma or Texas A&M
  • Establishing clear program momentum for 2026

The talent is there. The schedule cooperates. The expectations are clear.

Now, Auburn has to win football games.

The Bottom Line: No More Excuses

Auburn enters 2025 with everything necessary for success.

The quarterback position has been upgraded with a proven dual-threat transfer. The skill positions feature elite recruiting and portal additions. The defense returns key contributors while adding impact players for depth.

The schedule provides legitimate opportunities for 7-8 wins. The roster construction represents a substantial financial investment in immediate success.

Hugh Freeze has spent two years building this foundation. The 2025 season will determine whether he can coach at the level he recruits, or whether Auburn needs to find someone who can.

The excuses have been exhausted. The expectations are crystal clear. The pieces are in place.

Time to find out if Hugh Freeze can turn all this potential into actual victories.

The Next Billion Dollar Game

College football isn’t just a sport anymore—it’s a high-stakes market where information asymmetry separates winners from losers. While the average fan sees only what happens between the sidelines, real insiders trade on the hidden dynamics reshaping programs from the inside out.

Our team has embedded with the power brokers who run this game. From the coaching carousel to NIL deals to transfer portal strategies, we’ve mapped the entire ecosystem with the kind of obsessive detail that would make a hedge fund analyst blush.

Why subscribe? Because in markets this inefficient, information creates alpha. Our subscribers knew which coaches were dead men walking months before the mainstream media caught on. They understood which programs were quietly transforming their recruiting apparatuses while competitors slept.

The smart money is already positioning for 2025. Are you?

Click below—it’s free—and join the small group of people who understand the real value of college football’s new economy.

Free Subscription
BACK TO THE BLOG ARCHIVE
No related posts found.
VISIT OUR SHOP [COMING SOON]

LOAD MORE BLOG ARTICLES

Blog Article

Mississippi State Football 2025 Season Preview: Bulldogs Poised for Significant Improvement Under Jeff Lebby

Mark Haines on June 18, 2025

Jeff Lebby’s second season at Mississippi State represents the most critical juncture in recent program history.

After enduring a brutal 2-10 campaign that saw the Bulldogs finish winless in SEC play, everything about this team has been rebuilt from the ground up. The transfer portal became Mississippi State’s best friend. The recruiting class jumped into the top 30 nationally. And perhaps most importantly, the quarterback who showed flashes of brilliance before injury is coming back for another shot.

The question isn’t whether Mississippi State will be better in 2025.

The question is whether they’ll be good enough to survive one of the most punishing schedules in college football.

Blake Shapen’s Return Changes Everything

The most significant development for Mississippi State heading into 2025 is the return of quarterback Blake Shapen.

After receiving a medical hardship waiver, Shapen announced his decision to come back for a sixth season. The Baylor transfer started the Bulldogs’ first four games of 2024 before a shoulder injury ended his season prematurely. But what he showed in those four games was exactly what Jeff Lebby’s offense needed:

  • 68.5% completion percentage
  • 243.5 yards per game
  • 8 touchdowns to just 1 interception
  • 2 rushing touchdowns

“Blake’s decision to return for the 2025 season after his season-ending shoulder injury in Week 4 last year provides crucial stability,” notes former Mississippi State quarterback Jackie Sherrill.

His return isn’t just about talent—it’s about continuity in a system that desperately needs it.

The Transfer Portal Became Mississippi State’s Salvation

Mississippi State attacked the transfer portal like their program depended on it.

Because it did.

The defensive line—arguably the team’s biggest weakness in 2024—received a complete overhaul:

  • Will Whitson from Coastal Carolina (former Senior Bowl candidate)
  • Jamil Burroughs from Alabama/Miami
  • Jaray Bledsoe from Texas
  • Red Hibbler from NC State
  • Raishein Thomas from Northern Illinois

The secondary was reinforced with Old Dominion safety Jahron Manning (85 tackles, 3 interceptions in 2024) and Marian corner Dwight Lewis III. Tennessee transfer Jalen Smith brings veteran leadership to the linebacker position after Stone Blanton’s departure to the NFL.

On offense, the receiver room added six transfers, including Brenen Thompson from Oklahoma and Anthony Evans III from Georgia. Running back Davon Booth returns after leading the team in rushing, now paired with South Alabama transfer Fluff Bothwell (7.5 yards per carry in 2024).

This wasn’t just roster management—this was program reconstruction.

Recruiting Finally Shows Signs of Life

The 2025 recruiting class ranks 26th nationally.

For a program that has struggled to attract top talent, this represents massive progress. Mississippi State signed 27 players, with four four-star prospects:

  • Quarterback KaMario Taylor
  • Linebacker Tyler Lockhart
  • Edge rusher Tyshun Willis
  • Cornerback Kyle Johnson

This recruiting success reflects Lebby’s emphasis on building depth while maintaining focus on in-state prospects. The class provides both immediate contributors and long-term development pieces as the program works to close the talent gap with SEC elite programs.

The Schedule Flip Could Be a Game-Changer

Here’s what makes 2025 different: Mississippi State gets to play its toughest opponents at home.

After playing four 2024 College Football Playoff teams on the road last season, the Bulldogs welcome those same four teams to Starkville in 2025:

  • Arizona State (Sept. 6)
  • Tennessee (Sept. 27)
  • Texas (Oct. 25)
  • Georgia (Nov. 8)

The season opens with a road trip to Southern Miss (Aug. 30), then the home opener against Arizona State. Alcorn State and Northern Illinois round out the non-conference schedule before the SEC gauntlet begins.

Critical road games include Texas A&M (Oct. 4), Florida (Oct. 18), Arkansas (Nov. 1), and Missouri (Nov. 15). The traditional Egg Bowl against Ole Miss concludes the season at home (Nov. 28).

This home-and-away flip gives Mississippi State home-field advantage for their most challenging contests—and that could make all the difference.

Defense Gets a Complete Makeover

The 2024 defense was historically bad.

34.1 points allowed per game. 456.4 yards surrendered per game. Both numbers are dead last in the SEC. The defensive line couldn’t generate pressure, couldn’t stop the run, and frankly looked overmatched every Saturday.

The transformation has been dramatic. Spring practice reports indicated immediate improvement, with the revamped defensive line generating six sacks in the spring game. Safety Isaac Smith returns as the anchor after recording 127 tackles in 2024, providing veteran leadership for a unit that must improve dramatically.

The additions aren’t just about talent—they’re about changing the entire culture of a defense that got pushed around for an entire season.

Jeff Lebby Faces His Defining Moment

“What Jeff is building takes time, but the signs are encouraging,” former Mississippi State coach Jackie Sherrill said at a recent booster event. “The SEC West isn’t forgiving, but neither is standing still. The program is moving forward.”

But forward isn’t fast enough for everyone.

Lebby enters his second season under intense pressure to show tangible progress. The roster overhaul was necessary. The recruiting improvements are promising. The quarterback situation is stabilized.

Now he has to win games.

External projections place Mississippi State’s win total at approximately 4.5 games. ESPN’s FPI rankings have the Bulldogs at 52nd nationally—a notable improvement, but still far from SEC respectability.

The margin for error is razor-thin. Early momentum from non-conference victories is essential. Pulling off at least one significant SEC upset might be the difference between job security and a coaching search.

The Keys to Exceeding Expectations

For Mississippi State to surprise people in 2025, several things must happen perfectly:

  • The defensive line transformation must translate into consistent pressure and run-stopping ability
  • Blake Shapen must stay healthy and continue his efficient play
  • The offensive line must gel quickly to protect the quarterback
  • Costly turnovers and penalties (minus-six turnover margin in 2024) must be eliminated

The pieces are in place for significant improvement. The talent level is higher. The depth is better. The culture is changing.

But in the SEC, good intentions don’t win football games.

What Success Looks Like

Mississippi State doesn’t need to win the SEC in 2025.

They need to look like a program moving in the right direction. They need to be competitive in games they’re supposed to lose. They need to win the games they’re supposed to win. And they need to steal one or two that they’re not supposed to win.

Bowl eligibility would be a massive step forward. Beating Ole Miss in the Egg Bowl would erase a lot of frustration. Winning at Arkansas or Florida could provide momentum heading into the 2026 season.

Success will be measured not just in wins and losses, but in competitiveness, development, and the establishment of a sustainable program foundation.

The 2025 season represents a pivotal moment for Mississippi State football, with the potential to either validate Jeff Lebby’s vision or send the program back to the drawing board once again.

The Next Billion Dollar Game

College football isn’t just a sport anymore—it’s a high-stakes market where information asymmetry separates winners from losers. While the average fan sees only what happens between the sidelines, real insiders trade on the hidden dynamics reshaping programs from the inside out.

Our team has embedded with the power brokers who run this game. From the coaching carousel to NIL deals to transfer portal strategies, we’ve mapped the entire ecosystem with the kind of obsessive detail that would make a hedge fund analyst blush.

Why subscribe? Because in markets this inefficient, information creates alpha. Our subscribers knew which coaches were dead men walking months before the mainstream media caught on. They understood which programs were quietly transforming their recruiting apparatuses while competitors slept.

The smart money is already positioning for 2025. Are you?

Click below—it’s free—and join the small group of people who understand the real value of college football’s new economy.

Free Subscription
BACK TO THE BLOG ARCHIVE
No related posts found.
VISIT OUR SHOP [COMING SOON]

LOAD MORE BLOG ARTICLES

Blog Article

Oregon State Football 2025 Season Preview: From Chaos to Contention

Mark Haines on June 13, 2025

The 2024 season was a nightmare for the Oregon State football team.

After enduring conference realignment chaos, coaching departures, and quarterback carousel disasters that led to a disappointing 5-7 record, the Beavers enter 2025 with something they haven’t had in years: hope. The program has made aggressive moves during the offseason to address its most glaring weaknesses while building around a foundation of returning talent that finally has a chance to shine.

The Quarterback Solution That Changes Everything

Oregon State found its answer at the most important position on the field.

Former Duke quarterback Maalik Murphy committed to the Beavers in December, bringing proven production and leadership to a position that was an absolute disaster in 2024. The numbers tell the story of just how desperate Oregon State was for help at quarterback:

  • The Beavers’ quarterbacks collectively completed just 216 of 360 passes for 2,417 yards
  • They threw seven touchdowns against 11 interceptions
  • They averaged a pathetic 201.4 passing yards per game
  • Three different quarterbacks started games, with zero providing consistent results

Murphy’s 2024 season at Duke represents everything Oregon State was missing. He led the Blue Devils to a 9-3 season and threw a school-record 26 touchdown passes, completing 254 of 421 passes for 2,933 yards with 12 interceptions. The 6-foot-5, 230-pound redshirt sophomore has two years of eligibility remaining.

“Felt like a great opportunity, and I really felt welcomed and wanted there. I was made a priority, and that’s all I could ask for. I’m excited to be a Beaver and get out there with the guys!” Murphy told ESPN about his decision to transfer to Oregon State.

Murphy alone threw nearly four times as many touchdown passes as Oregon State’s entire quarterback room combined last season.

The Supporting Cast Is Already In Place

Murphy won’t be throwing to scrubs.

Senior Trent Walker led all Oregon State receivers with 901 yards. He scored two touchdowns in 2024, providing Murphy with a proven target who served as a reliable safety valve during the quarterback chaos. Darrius Clemons, a Michigan transfer who battled through injuries, returns healthy after catching 29 passes for 292 yards and 2 touchdowns.

The depth at receiver has improved significantly:

  • Redshirt sophomore Taz Reddicks is expected to play a larger role after recording 17 catches in 11 games
  • Zachary Card played in all 12 games and can return kicks
  • David Wells Jr. provides additional depth as a redshirt sophomore

The tight end position received a massive boost with Riley Williams, a transfer from Miami who returns home to Oregon (Central Catholic HS in Portland). Williams brings experience from a high-level program and gives Murphy another reliable target.

But the real game-changer might be what’s already proven in the backfield.

Anthony Hankerson: The Foundation Everything Builds Upon

The ground game isn’t a question mark for Oregon State.

Anthony Hankerson returns after a breakout 2024 season, during which he nearly reached 1,000 rushing yards and scored 15 touchdowns. The senior running back provides the Beavers with a proven ground threat that should help balance the offense and take pressure off Murphy as he adjusts to his new system.

Oregon State averaged 189.2 rushing yards per game in 2024, actually outpacing their opponents’ 185.8 yards per game. This wasn’t the problem—it was everything else that fell apart around the running game.

Defense Gets a Complete Makeover

Last season’s defensive performance was embarrassing.

The Beavers managed just seven sacks all season, ranking dead last in FBS, while allowing nearly 30 points per game. The pass rush was so bad it became a national punchline. But the coaching staff has made substantial changes to address these glaring issues.

The defensive line transformation through the transfer portal includes:

  • Walker Harris from Southern Utah (expected starter at defensive end)
  • Kai Wallin from Nebraska (expected starter at defensive end)
  • Tevita Pome’e from Oregon (interior line anchor)
  • Tahjae Mullix from Western Carolina (additional depth)

The secondary returns some stability with sophomore Exodus Ayers, who was thrust into action as a freshman, and Kobe Singleton is expected to start if healthy. Captain Skylar Thomas anchors the safety position after leading the team with 81 tackles in 2024.

This defense has nowhere to go but up.

Schedule Reality Check

The 2025 schedule will test every improvement Oregon State has made.

Seven home games provide some comfort, but six autonomy, five opponents create serious challenges. The slate includes demanding matchups against California, Houston, and Wake Forest at home, while road trips to Texas Tech and Oregon will provide early tests of the team’s progress.

The November dynamics are particularly interesting:

  • November 1: First meeting with Washington State (the only other Pac-12 survivor)
  • November 29: Season finale at Washington State in Pullman

These two games essentially represent the entire Pac-12 Conference, as both programs function as quasi-independent entities while maintaining their conference affiliation.

Coaching Stability Finally Arrives

Head coach Trent Bray enters his second season providing much-needed continuity.

Offensive coordinator Ryan Gunderson also returns for his second year, which should help the offense develop more consistency and familiarity with the system as Murphy settles into his role at quarterback. The coaching staff has been strengthened with five new additions, including Mark Criner as defensive quality control and Mikey Jacobsen as offensive quality control.

After years of upheaval, Oregon State finally has the coaching stability necessary to implement sustainable systems.

Transfer Portal Reinforcements Address Every Weakness

Beyond Murphy, Oregon State made strategic moves to fix its most obvious problems.

The offensive line, which struggled with protection and consistency in 2024, received reinforcements:

  • Keyon Cox from UCF
  • JT Hand from Arizona
  • Josiah Timoteo from Nevada

Defensively, the Beavers added multiple front-seven players, including linebacker Raesjon Davis from USC, in addition to the defensive line transfers. These additions offer both immediate impact potential and crucial depth for a program that has experienced significant roster turnover.

Every major weakness from 2024 has been addressed through the transfer portal.

Bowl Eligibility: The Realistic Goal That Matters

Six wins from a challenging 12-game schedule represent success for this program.

Oregon State’s ability to reach bowl eligibility will depend on three critical factors:

  • How quickly Murphy adapts to the offensive system
  • Whether the retooled defensive line can generate consistent pressure
  • How well the team navigates the demanding travel schedule that comes with their quasi-independent status

The schedule structure creates both opportunities and obstacles. Early-season games against California and Fresno State provide opportunities to build momentum, but the October stretch, featuring Appalachian State, Wake Forest, and Washington State, will likely determine bowl prospects.

A strong start could position the Beavers for their first bowl appearance since 2022.

The Bigger Picture: Program Survival and Growth

This season represents more than wins and losses for Oregon State.

After weathering conference realignment chaos, coaching changes, and massive roster turnover, the Beavers have assembled a team capable of taking meaningful steps forward. The success of 2025 will be measured in the development of sustainable systems and culture under Bray’s leadership.

Murphy’s presence at quarterback provides immediate upgrade potential, while the combination of returning players and strategic transfer additions offers hope for both short-term improvement and long-term stability.

For a program that has faced unprecedented challenges, 2025 offers an opportunity to demonstrate resilience and chart a path toward relevance in the rapidly changing landscape of college football.

The foundation has been laid, the pieces are in place, and the expectations are realistic but meaningful.

Now comes the execution that will determine whether Oregon State can transform from a program in survival mode into one capable of competing for bowl games and respect in the new era of college football.

The Next Billion Dollar Game

College football isn’t just a sport anymore—it’s a high-stakes market where information asymmetry separates winners from losers. While the average fan sees only what happens between the sidelines, real insiders trade on the hidden dynamics reshaping programs from the inside out.

Our team has embedded with the power brokers who run this game. From the coaching carousel to NIL deals to transfer portal strategies, we’ve mapped the entire ecosystem with the kind of obsessive detail that would make a hedge fund analyst blush.

Why subscribe? Because in markets this inefficient, information creates alpha. Our subscribers knew which coaches were dead men walking months before the mainstream media caught on. They understood which programs were quietly transforming their recruiting apparatuses while competitors slept.

The smart money is already positioning for 2025. Are you?

Click below—it’s free—and join the small group of people who understand the real value of college football’s new economy.

Free Subscription
BACK TO THE BLOG ARCHIVE
No related posts found.
VISIT OUR SHOP [COMING SOON]

LOAD MORE BLOG ARTICLES

Blog Article

Washington State Football 2025: The Ultimate Rebuild

Mark Haines on June 12, 2025

New Washington State Football Coach Jimmy Rogers has inherited one hell of a mess.

The new Washington State head coach took over a program that lost 46 players to the transfer portal, watched its former coach flee to Wake Forest, and now sits as one of just two teams in what used to be the mighty Pac-12. If you’re looking for a case study in how quickly college football can flip your world upside down, look no further than Pullman, Washington.

But here’s the thing about rock bottom—it’s also the perfect foundation to build something special.

The South Dakota State Invasion

Rogers didn’t just take the Washington State job.

He brought an entire army with him from South Dakota State, where he compiled a ridiculous 27-3 record over two seasons and won back-to-back FCS national championships. Of the 20 transfers joining the Cougars for 2025, 15 are following Rogers from South Dakota State (the Jackrabbits).

This isn’t your typical coaching hire where a few assistants tag along. This is a full-scale program transplantation:

  • Defensive backs: Tucker Large, Colby Humphrey, Matt Durrance, Trey Ridley, Caleb Francl, and Cale Reeder
  • Running backs: Maxwell Woods, Kirby Vorhees, and Angel Johnson
  • Tight ends: Beau Baker (plus Michigan State transfer Ademola Faleye)
  • Defensive line: Max Baloun, Buddha Peleti, Darrion Dalton, and Malaki Ta’ase
  • Linebackers: Anthony Palano and Carsten Reynolds
  • Special teams: Kicker Jack Stevens and punter Dylan Mauro

Rogers is essentially betting his entire reputation on one simple premise: that his championship-winning system and the players who executed it can translate from FCS to FBS competition.

The Portal Bloodbath

Want to understand the full extent of this dramatic rebuild?

Washington State lost their starting quarterback (John Mateer to Oklahoma), their top running back (Wayshawn Parker to Utah), their best linebacker (Buddah Al-Uqdah to rival Washington), and multiple offensive linemen who followed former coach Jake Dickert to Wake Forest.

The numbers tell the story:

  • 46 players entered the transfer portal
  • 26 scholarship players departed
  • 11 starters found new homes
  • 7 players followed Dickert to Wake Forest

This wasn’t just roster turnover—this was roster demolition.

But here’s where it gets interesting. Ten players who initially entered the portal because of coaching uncertainty withdrew their names and decided to stay. These returners include projected starting quarterback Zevi Eckhaus, receivers Josh Meredith and Tre Shackleford, and cornerback Jamorri Colson.

The Quarterback Situation

Zevi Eckhaus might be the most important player in college football you’ve never heard of.

After spending 2024 as John Mateer’s backup, Eckhaus got his moment in the Holiday Bowl and absolutely delivered. He completed 31 of 43 passes for 363 yards, three touchdowns, and two interceptions in his first FBS start. More importantly, he briefly entered the transfer portal before deciding to stay and bet on himself under the new coaching staff.

This decision could define Washington State’s 2025 season.

Eckhaus brings a different skill set than the departed Mateer—less of a dual-threat, more of a traditional pocket passer. But in Rogers’ system, which emphasizes ball control and efficient passing rather than the Air Raid’s vertical attack, Eckhaus might be a perfect fit.

The Scheme Transformation

Here’s what makes this rebuild even more fascinating.

Rogers isn’t just changing the players—he’s completely overhauling the offensive and defensive philosophies that have defined Washington State football for over a decade. The Air Raid system that made the Cougars famous is being replaced by a more balanced, physical approach that emphasizes:

  • Two tight end sets instead of four and five receiver packages
  • Power running game instead of spread concepts
  • Ball control instead of high-tempo passing
  • Defensive pressure instead of coverage-heavy schemes

The new coaching staff has brought in three tight ends through recruiting and transfers, plus converted linebacker Hudson Cederland to the position. This signals a fundamental shift toward formations and concepts that would be unrecognizable to Mike Leach or his successors.

The Recruiting Reality Check

Let’s be brutally honest about Washington State’s 2025 recruiting class.

Ranked 71st nationally by ESPN, this represents a historic low for a program that had never previously finished below 76th in recruiting rankings. The class lacks the blue-chip talent that defined previous WSU recruiting cycles, instead featuring a mixture of:

  • 18 high school prospects (many flipped from South Dakota State)
  • Multiple JUCO transfers, including top-rated receiver Devin Ellison
  • Graduate transfers filling immediate needs
  • Three-star prospects rather than four-star game-changers

But here’s the counterargument: Rogers isn’t trying to win a recruiting ranking. He’s trying to build a cohesive team that can execute his system immediately. Sometimes the best recruiting class isn’t the one with the highest ratings—it’s the one with the right players for your specific approach.

The Schedule Gauntlet

Washington State’s 2025 schedule reads like a geography lesson and a difficulty test rolled into one.

The Cougars will face six teams they’ve never played before, make three trips east of the Mississippi River before Halloween, and somehow play Oregon State twice in the same month. Here’s how the season breaks down:

Winnable home games:

  • Idaho (August 30) – FCS opponent, regional rivalry
  • San Diego State – Mountain West program in transition
  • Toledo – Solid MAC team, but beatable
  • Louisiana Tech – Conference USA opponent
  • Oregon State (November 29) – Pac-12 rematch

Challenging road tests:

  • North Texas – Improved AAC program
  • Colorado State – Mountain West contender
  • Ole Miss – SEC powerhouse (guaranteed loss)
  • Virginia – ACC program on the rise
  • James Madison – Sun Belt success story
  • Oregon State (November 1) – First of two meetings

Most analysts project a 5-7 finish, with strong home performance offsetting road struggles. But in a rebuilding year with this much roster turnover, even that might be optimistic.

The Unique Pac-12 Situation

Here’s something that makes Washington State’s rebuild completely unprecedented.

The Cougars are one of just two remaining members of the Pac-12, alongside Oregon State. This creates challenges that no other program faces:

  • Scheduling difficulties requiring creative non-conference arrangements
  • Recruiting hurdles without a stable conference identity
  • Financial constraints from reduced media rights revenue
  • National relevance questions in a two-team conference

The Oregon State double-header perfectly illustrates this bizarre reality. The schools will meet November 1 in Corvallis and November 29 in Pullman—the first time they’ve played twice in the same season since 1945. It’s a scheduling necessity born from conference chaos.

The Make-or-Break Factors

Rogers’ success in 2025 will depend on three critical variables.

First: Can the South Dakota State transfers handle the jump from FCS to FBS competition? These players dominated at the subdivision level, but facing Power 4 and Group of 5 opponents every week presents a massive step up in speed and athleticism.

Second: Will the new offensive system mesh with returning skill position players? Receivers like Meredith and Shackleford thrived in the Air Raid, but adapting to a more balanced approach with tight end-heavy formations could create growing pains.

Third: How quickly can Rogers establish his culture and leadership in a program that’s experienced massive upheaval? Championship coaches succeed because their players buy into their vision. With so many new faces and systems, building that trust becomes paramount.

The Bottom Line

Washington State’s 2025 season isn’t really about wins and losses.

It’s about Jimmy Rogers proving that his championship formula can scale from FCS to FBS competition. It’s about whether a program can completely reinvent itself in one offseason and remain competitive. It’s about survival in the weird, wild world of modern college football.

The Cougars enter this season with the lowest expectations in program history. No bowl projections. No conference championship hopes. No playoff dreams.

But sometimes that’s exactly where magic happens.

Rogers has built championship programs before. He’s developed players, installed winning systems, and created cultures that produce results. The question isn’t whether he can coach—it’s whether he can do it fast enough to keep Washington State relevant while rebuilding from scratch.

One thing is certain: college football has never seen a rebuild quite like this one.

The 2025 Washington State Cougars will either validate Rogers’ vision and provide a blueprint for program transformation, or they’ll serve as a cautionary tale about the dangers of wholesale roster replacement. Either way, they’ll be absolutely fascinating to watch.

The Next Billion Dollar Game

College football isn’t just a sport anymore—it’s a high-stakes market where information asymmetry separates winners from losers. While the average fan sees only what happens between the sidelines, real insiders trade on the hidden dynamics reshaping programs from the inside out.

Our team has embedded with the power brokers who run this game. From the coaching carousel to NIL deals to transfer portal strategies, we’ve mapped the entire ecosystem with the kind of obsessive detail that would make a hedge fund analyst blush.

Why subscribe? Because in markets this inefficient, information creates alpha. Our subscribers knew which coaches were dead men walking months before the mainstream media caught on. They understood which programs were quietly transforming their recruiting apparatuses while competitors slept.

The smart money is already positioning for 2025. Are you?

Click below—it’s free—and join the small group of people who understand the real value of college football’s new economy.

Free Subscription
BACK TO THE BLOG ARCHIVE
No related posts found.
VISIT OUR SHOP [COMING SOON]

LOAD MORE BLOG ARTICLES

Blog Article

Illinois Football 2025 Season Preview: Championship Aspirations Meet Reality

Mark Haines on June 11, 2025

Illinois football is no longer a punchline.

The Fighting Illini enter the 2025 season with something they haven’t experienced in decades: legitimate championship expectations. Following a breakthrough 10-3 campaign that culminated in a Citrus Bowl victory over South Carolina, Bret Bielema’s program has captured national attention and positioned itself among college football’s emerging powers.

The Numbers Don’t Lie: Illinois Has Arrived

The preseason rankings tell the story of a program transformed:

  • Fox Sports’ Joel Klatt: #10
  • ESPN: #11
  • CBS Sports: #12
  • 247 Sports: #14
  • On3.com: #7 (yes, you read that correctly)

This marks Illinois’ first preseason ranking since 2008, and the highest preseason expectations in over two decades. “Everyone will tell you around Illinois they’re shooting for college football playoffs,” analyst Jeremy Werner said on the Cover 3 Podcast.

That’s not wishful thinking anymore.

Luke Altmyer: The Quarterback Who Changed Everything

The foundation of Illinois’ championship dreams rests on one decision: whether Luke Altmyer will return.

In front of a packed State Farm Center during a basketball game, the junior quarterback announced he would return for his senior season rather than entering the transfer portal. That announcement might have been the most critical moment for Illinois football in 20 years.

Altmyer’s 2024 numbers were exceptional:

  • 2,717 passing yards
  • 22 touchdowns, five interceptions
  • 61% completion percentage
  • #34 nationally in passer rating (144.9)
  • 5 career game-winning drives (most among active QBs)

But the numbers only tell part of the story. Altmyer has become the clutch performer Illinois desperately needed, throwing three game-winning touchdown passes in the final minute or overtime during 2024 alone.

Bret Bielema Gets Paid (And Illinois Gets Certainty)

Illinois wasn’t taking any chances with their coach.

The university signed Bielema to a six-year contract extension through 2030, worth $7.7 million annually. The deal signals institutional commitment and provides the stability that championship programs require.

Since arriving in 2021, Bielema has compiled a 28-22 overall record and transformed Illinois from Big Ten doormat to legitimate contender. His “tough, smart, dependable” philosophy has produced tangible results:

  • 12 NFL draft picks in four seasons
  • Two bowl appearances
  • First 10-win season since 2001
  • Largest attendance growth in the nation

The Schedule: A Championship Window Opens

Illinois caught a break with its 2025 schedule.

The Illini avoid traditional Big Ten powers Penn State, Oregon, and Michigan. Their toughest opponent? Defending national champion Ohio State, but that game comes at home in Memorial Stadium.

Early season tests will define the trajectory:

  • Duke (road): Nine-win team in 2024 with talented QB Maalik Murphy
  • Indiana (road): Big Ten opener against Curt Cignetti’s improved Hoosiers
  • USC (home): Lincoln Riley’s Trojans in a must-win spot
  • Ohio State (home): The measuring stick game

Werner emphasized the importance of those early road games: “I think that’s going to tell us a lot about this team.”

Replacing NFL Talent Through the Portal

Illinois lost significant production to the NFL:

  • Pat Bryant (WR): Drafted by Denver Broncos (3rd round)
  • Zakhari Franklin (WR): Signed with Las Vegas Raiders
  • Seth Coleman (LB): Joined Seattle Seahawks
  • JC Davis (OL): Departed for NFL opportunities

But Bielema’s staff struck back through the transfer portal.

The headliner addition is West Virginia wide receiver Hudson Clement, who posted 51 catches for 741 yards in 2024. Ball State’s Justin Bowick (6’5″, compared to the NFL’s Courtland Sutton) adds size and athleticism to the receiving corps.

Defensively, Wisconsin transfers James Thompson Jr. and Curt Neal bolster a front seven that needs to replace Coleman’s pass-rushing production. Florida State’s Tomiwa Durojaiye provides additional depth and upside.

The Foundation: 16 Returning Starters

Here’s why Illinois isn’t a one-year wonder: continuity.

The Illini return 16 starters from their 10-win squad, creating the experience and chemistry that championship teams require. Key returning players include:

  • Xavier Scott (DB): Led team with four interceptions
  • Matthew Bailey (DB): Citrus Bowl defensive MVP (93 tackles)
  • Gabe Jacas (LB): Top pass rusher, National Defensive Player of the Week
  • Josh McCray (RB): Citrus Bowl MVP (609 rushing yards)

This level of roster retention is rare in the transfer portal era, giving Illinois a significant competitive advantage.

Statistical Reality Check: What Needs Improvement

Illinois’ 2024 numbers reveal both strengths and concerns.

Offensive Strengths:

  • 364.8 total yards per game
  • 211.2 passing yards per game
  • 153.6 rushing yards per game
  • Only 40.2 penalty yards per game (excellent discipline)

Defensive Concerns:

  • 373.2 total yards allowed per game
  • 224.8 passing yards allowed
  • 148.4 rushing yards allowed

The defensive numbers suggest room for improvement, especially against high-powered offenses like Ohio State. The transfer portal additions should help, but Illinois must prove they can stop elite attacks consistently.

College Football Playoff: Dream or Destiny?

The expanded playoff format creates new opportunities for programs like Illinois.

ESPN’s Heather Dinich ranked Altmyer as the sixth-most impactful returning player nationally, noting that Illinois “can be a CFP sleeper team by competing for the Big Ten title and earning an at-large bid if it doesn’t win the league.”

The comparison being made? Indiana’s shocking 11-1 season and playoff appearance in 2024.

The comparison being made? Indiana’s shocking 11-1 season and playoff appearance in 2024.

If Illinois can navigate early road tests and avoid significant injuries, a 10-win season and playoff berth become realistic rather than fantasy.

The Bottom Line: This Is Illinois’ Moment

Vegas set the over/under for Illinois wins at 7.5, but that feels conservative.

The combination of experienced leadership, coaching stability, favorable scheduling, and strategic roster additions creates the foundation for sustained success. Illinois has moved beyond hoping for bowl eligibility to expecting championship contention.

The 2025 season represents more than an opportunity to repeat recent success—it’s a chance to establish Illinois as a permanent fixture among the college football elite.

The question isn’t whether Illinois can compete at the highest level.

The question is whether they’re ready to handle the pressure that comes with finally being taken seriously.

The Next Billion Dollar Game

College football isn’t just a sport anymore—it’s a high-stakes market where information asymmetry separates winners from losers. While the average fan sees only what happens between the sidelines, real insiders trade on the hidden dynamics reshaping programs from the inside out.

Our team has embedded with the power brokers who run this game. From the coaching carousel to NIL deals to transfer portal strategies, we’ve mapped the entire ecosystem with the kind of obsessive detail that would make a hedge fund analyst blush.

Why subscribe? Because in markets this inefficient, information creates alpha. Our subscribers knew which coaches were dead men walking months before the mainstream media caught on. They understood which programs were quietly transforming their recruiting apparatuses while competitors slept.

The smart money is already positioning for 2025. Are you?

Click below—it’s free—and join the small group of people who understand the real value of college football’s new economy.

Free Subscription
BACK TO THE BLOG ARCHIVE
No related posts found.
VISIT OUR SHOP [COMING SOON]

LOAD MORE BLOG ARTICLES

Blog Article

Oregon Football 2025: The Championship Window Is Wide Open

Mark Haines on June 10, 2025

The Oregon Ducks are about to find out if lightning can strike twice.

After their historic undefeated regular season and Big Ten Championship in 2024, the Ducks face a moment of truth. Can they maintain championship-level performance while replacing Heisman finalist Dillon Gabriel and 10 NFL Draft picks? Or will 2024 prove to be a magical one-year run that can’t be replicated?

The answer lies in how quickly Oregon’s young stars can fill massive shoes.

The Foundation Is Rock Solid

Oregon didn’t just win in 2024—they dominated.

Their numbers tell the story of a program firing on all cylinders:

  • 13-1 overall record with a perfect 12-0 regular season
  • 34.86 points per game (4th nationally)
  • Only 19.43 points allowed per game
  • Signature wins over Ohio State (32-31), Michigan (38-17), and Washington (49-21)
  • First Big Ten Championship in program history

The only crack in the armor? A sobering 41-21 loss to Ohio State in the Rose Bowl exposed defensive vulnerabilities against elite competition.

But here’s what that loss represents: proof that Oregon belongs on the biggest stage, with lessons learned about what it takes to win at the highest level.

The $64,000 Question: Can Dante Moore Be “The Guy”?

Everything hinges on the quarterback position.

Dillon Gabriel’s departure creates the most significant question mark on Oregon’s roster. Enter Dante Moore, the former five-star UCLA transfer who spent 2024 learning Will Stein’s system from the sidelines.

Here’s why Moore could explode in 2025:

  • Full year of development in Stein’s offense without game pressure
  • Elite arm talent that made him a top-5 recruit
  • Quick decision-making system perfectly suited to his skill set
  • Chemistry built with receivers throughout spring practice

On3 analyst JD Pickell believes Moore’s patient development was crucial: “My biggest takeaway is he is going to be able, I think, play with better anticipation having sat for a year. Anticipation in Will Stein’s offense = points.”

Moore’s 2023 UCLA experience—52.4% completion rate, 11 TDs, 9 INTs—represents learning on the fly in a complex system. Now he gets to showcase what a year of preparation can do.

The backup situation adds intrigue with Austin Novosad choosing to stay rather than transfer, creating valuable depth behind Moore.

The Receiving Corps Just Got Very Interesting

Oregon’s passing attack faces both crisis and opportunity.

The crisis? Evan Stewart, projected as the Ducks’ top receiver, suffered a knee injury believed to be a torn patellar tendon that could sideline him for the entire 2025 season. Stewart’s 48 catches for 613 yards in 2024 represented crucial production that must be replaced.

The opportunity? Enter the “Moore to Moore” connection.

Five-star freshman Dakorien Moore—the nation’s top-ranked receiver—arrives with elite credentials and early raves from teammates. Gary Bryant Jr. called him “very explosive” and praised his versatility: “Can play any position in the receiver room from X, Y, Z, A. Explosive receiver. Got good hands. Got good routes.”

The supporting cast includes:

  • Justius Lowe (21 catches, 203 yards in 2024)
  • Gary Bryant Jr. (limited by injury but productive when healthy)
  • Malik Benson (Florida State transfer, adding depth)
  • Jeremiah McClellan (emerging young talent)

With Stewart’s absence creating immediate opportunities, expect Dakorien Moore to fast-track into a starring role alongside quarterback Dante Moore.

Defense: Elite Edge Rush Meets Secondary Youth

Oregon’s defense returns its most dominant weapon in Matayo Uiagalelei.

The All-Big Ten edge rusher led the team with 10.5 sacks and 12.5 tackles for loss, establishing himself as one of college football’s premier pass rushers. Paired with returning edge rusher Teitum Tuioti and USC transfer Bear Alexander on the interior, Oregon’s pass rush should remain elite.

The secondary tells a different story entirely.

After sending seven defensive backs to NFL camps, Oregon rebuilt with elite recruits:

  • Five-star cornerback Na’eem Offord (nation’s top-ranked corner)
  • Five-star safety Trey McNutt (elite athleticism and range)
  • Multiple four-star additions providing depth

“I feel like I felt the most love at Oregon,” Offord said about his recruitment. “The whole staff had been recruiting me from the beginning. Everything, just everything there. I feel like Oregon just fits me.”

The question isn’t talent—it’s experience. These young stars must perform immediately against Big Ten offenses that will test every coverage.

Dan Lanning’s Recruiting Machine Keeps Rolling

Oregon’s 2025 recruiting class proves this success isn’t accidental.

The numbers are staggering:

  • No. 3 national ranking according to 247Sports
  • Three five-star prospects (most in program history)
  • 15 four-star recruits
  • Best recruiting class in the Big Ten

Expert Matt Prehm from Ducks Territory summarized Oregon’s talent level: “They’ve recruited as well as they’ve ever done at Oregon. They have NFL players on both sides of the football. They have first-round draft picks on both sides of the football. This is as talented of a group as possible.”

The 2026 class momentum continues with multiple five-star commitments and official visits from top prospects, indicating sustainable excellence rather than a one-year flash in the pan.

Schedule Sets Up for Another Championship Run

Oregon catches two massive breaks in 2025.

They avoid both Ohio State and Michigan in regular-season play, removing the conference’s two biggest threats from their path to another Big Ten Championship. The toughest tests come in late September (at Penn State) and November road trips to Iowa and Washington.

FanDuel Sportsbook has set Oregon’s win total at 10.5, reflecting both the team’s recent consistency and the uncertainty surrounding its roster. The Ducks have hit double-digit wins every full season since 2019, establishing championship-level expectations.

“I also think 12-0 might happen again,” said Prehm. “They don’t play Ohio State. They don’t play Michigan. I honestly think the schedule sets up where if Dante Moore is as good as we think he is, the backend on defense connects maybe sooner than later.”

The Unfinished Business

Several questions remain unanswered as we head into 2025.

The most pressing concerns:

  • Quarterback depth behind Moore remains unproven
  • Secondary relies heavily on talented but inexperienced players
  • Special teams consistency (particularly kicking) wasn’t addressed
  • Veteran leadership must emerge from new voices

These aren’t fatal flaws—they’re growing pains for a program transitioning from breakthrough to sustained excellence.

Lightning Is About to Strike Again

Oregon enters 2025 with everything needed for another championship run.

The infrastructure is championship-caliber: elite recruiting, proven coaching, favorable schedule, and core talent returning at key positions. The expanded 12-team College Football Playoff provides multiple paths to postseason success.

The real question isn’t whether Oregon can compete—it’s whether they can elevate their ceiling even higher.

2024 proved Oregon belongs among college football’s elite. 2025 will determine if they’re ready to stay there permanently. With Dante Moore under center, Dakorien Moore stretching defenses, and Matayo Uiagalelei terrorizing quarterbacks, the pieces are in place for something special.

The championship window isn’t just open—it’s wide open.

BACK TO THE BLOG ARCHIVE
No related posts found.
VISIT OUR SHOP [COMING SOON]

LOAD MORE BLOG ARTICLES

Blog Article

Indiana Football 2025 Season Preview: Building on History

Mark Haines on June 9, 2025

Indiana football is about to find out if lightning can strike twice.

The Hoosiers enter 2025 carrying unprecedented momentum following the most successful campaign in program history. Under second-year head coach Curt Cignetti, they must prove that their remarkable 2024 breakthrough was not a fluke but the foundation of a sustainable championship culture.

The Historic 2024 Foundation Changed Everything

The numbers from Indiana’s 2024 season tell a story of complete transformation.

Cignetti’s first season produced an 11-2 overall record and an 8-1 mark in Big Ten play, both program records. The Hoosiers reached the College Football Playoff for the first time, ultimately falling to Notre Dame 27-17 in the first round.

The statistical dominance was overwhelming:

  • Indiana averaged 41.3 points per game while allowing just 15.6
  • They outgained opponents by nearly 170 yards per contest
  • The Hoosiers finished No. 10 in both the AP and Coaches polls
  • This marked their highest ranking since 1967

Perhaps most importantly, Cignetti established a culture of excellence that attracted national attention. As he reflected on the season, “That’s probably the silver lining of the Notre Dame game is a sour taste it left in my mouth and everybody else’s mouth in terms of motivation to get started this year,” Cignetti told ESPN.

The Weak Schedule Criticism Was Valid (But 2025 Fixes That)

The most persistent criticism of Indiana’s 2024 success centered on one glaring weakness: the strength of schedule.

With an ESPN FPI strength of schedule ranked 100th nationally, Indiana faced legitimate questions about their readiness for elite competition. The nonconference slate was particularly problematic:

  • Florida International
  • Western Illinois (an FCS team)
  • Charlotte

Those criticisms were validated when Indiana struggled against top-tier opponents, losing 38-15 to Ohio State and 27-17 to Notre Dame. However, the 2025 schedule represents a dramatic upgrade that should silence critics.

ESPN’s 2025 strength of schedule ratings place Indiana at No. 32 nationally. This is a significant jump that puts them solidly in the upper quarter of all FBS teams for schedule difficulty. The road games alone tell the story:

  • At Oregon (2024 Big Ten Championship participant)
  • At Penn State (2024 Big Ten Championship participant)
  • At Iowa (traditionally a difficult environment)

Additional challenging home matchups against Wisconsin, Illinois, and UCLA create a gauntlet that will test Indiana’s depth and development.

The Quarterback Question Got the Perfect Answer

The most crucial offseason addition came at quarterback, where Indiana landed Fernando Mendoza from California.

The 6-foot-5, 225-pound redshirt sophomore was one of the most coveted quarterbacks available in the transfer portal and committed to the Hoosiers in December, according to ESPN. His 2024 statistics at Cal were impressive:

  • 3,004 passing yards
  • 16 touchdowns
  • Just six interceptions
  • 68.7% completion rate

His younger brother Alberto, already on the Indiana roster, played a role in the recruitment. “His younger brother, Alberto Mendoza, is a freshman backup quarterback for the Hoosiers, a connection that proved to be a key factor as Fernando Mendoza decided whether to transfer ahead of his junior season,” ESPN reported.

The quarterback addition addresses one of the biggest concerns following Kurtis Rourke’s departure. Rourke threw for 3,042 yards and 29 touchdowns in 2024, earning second-team All-Big Ten honors and finishing ninth in Heisman Trophy voting.

The Offensive Line Got a Complete Makeover

Perhaps no position group received more attention in the offseason than the offensive line, which struggled against elite competition in 2024.

The numbers were brutal. “One area that hurt Mendoza at Cal last season collides with the Indiana weakness that got exposed in the Hoosiers’ biggest games, as they had a 13% sack rate against Ohio State, Notre Dame and Michigan last year, per ESPN Analytics, compared to 3% against the rest of their schedule,” according to ESPN analysis.

Indiana aggressively addressed this weakness by adding three experienced Power 4 transfers:

  • Kahlil Benson from Colorado
  • Pat Coogan from Notre Dame
  • Zen Michalski from Ohio State

Combined with returning starters Carter Smith, Bray Lynch, and Drew Evans, Indiana now boasts six older and experienced linemen. This should be the team’s most improved unit in 2025.

The Defense Keeps Its Championship Core

While the offense underwent significant changes, the defense retains its core leadership.

All-American cornerback D’Angelo Ponds returns after recording three interceptions and nine pass breakups in 2024. Two other defensive anchors also return:

  • Linebacker Aiden Fisher (team-leading 118 tackles)
  • Defensive end Mikail Kamara (10 sacks, 15 tackles for loss)

The defensive continuity provides stability as Indiana integrates new offensive pieces. Defensive coordinator Bryant Haines and the defensive system that ranked sixth nationally in scoring defense remain intact.

This Schedule Will Test Everything

Indiana’s 2025 schedule presents a legitimate test of its championship aspirations.

The season opens favorably with three home games against Old Dominion, Kennesaw State, and Indiana State. “The season opener at home against Old Dominion on Aug. 30 is set for a 2:30 p.m. kickoff, with Week 2 against Kennesaw State kicking off at noon. Both games will be televised on FS1,” according to On3.

The real challenges begin with Big Ten play. Road trips to Oregon and Penn State represent the most difficult tests, as both teams were in the 2024 Big Ten Championship game. Additional road games at Iowa and Maryland, plus home contests against Wisconsin, Illinois, and UCLA, create a gauntlet that will test Indiana’s depth and development.

This is not the 2024 schedule that critics attacked for being weak.

The Contract Extension Shows Total Commitment

Indiana’s commitment to Cignetti’s vision became crystal clear with a massive contract extension signed in November 2024.

“Cignetti and the Hoosiers agreed to an eight-year contract worth $8 million annually, the program announced in a press release Saturday morning. The deal runs through Nov. 30, 2032, and comes with an annual $1 million retention bonus,” according to the Indiana Daily Student.

The financial commitment is staggering:

  • $72 million total over eight years
  • $11 million staff salary pool (projects to be top five nationally)
  • Significant buyout protection for both sides

“Indiana is spending accordingly, giving Cignetti a new deal for $72 million over eight years, and it now has an $11 million staff salary pool. (The pool projects to be top five in the country),” ESPN reported.

Transfer Portal Success Continues

Cignetti’s ability to rebuild through the transfer portal remains a key strength for the program.

Indiana’s 2025 transfer class ranks 18th nationally according to 247Sports, with 19 additions:

  • 10 on offense
  • 6 on defense
  • 3 specialists

Beyond Mendoza, key additions include running back Roman Hemby from Maryland, who brings 2,347 career yards and 22 touchdowns. The offensive line additions of Benson, Coogan, and Michalski represent experienced players from major programs who should immediately improve depth and competition.

The Expectations Are Sky High (And Realistic)

“We don’t want to be a one-hit wonder” became an unofficial motto as ESPN reported on rising expectations.

The 2025 season will determine whether Indiana can sustain elite-level performance or if 2024 was an anomaly. ESPN’s preseason rankings place Indiana at No. 17 in their “Way-Too-Early Top 25,” reflecting both respect for the program’s rise and skepticism about repeating unprecedented success.

This would mark Indiana’s first preseason AP Top 25 appearance since 2021. The schedule upgrade provides an opportunity for legitimacy:

  • Success against Oregon, Penn State, and other ranked opponents would validate Indiana’s place among college football’s elite
  • Struggles could reinforce perceptions that 2024 was built on a favorable schedule

Cignetti’s Track Record Suggests Optimism

The man leading this transformation has never failed before.

“We’re going to change the culture, the mindset, the expectation level and improve the brand of Indiana Hoosier football,” Cignetti said during his introductory press conference in December 2023, according to the Indiana Daily Student. “There will be no self-imposed limitations on what we can accomplish.”

His famous “Google me” confidence reflects a coach who has never had a losing season in 14 years as a head coach. The culture change is evident in recruiting, fan support, and national perception.

“When we played the real good people,” Cignetti acknowledged regarding 2024 losses, “we looked a little different.” The 2025 schedule provides ample opportunity to demonstrate growth against elite competition.

This Is the Ultimate Test

The 2025 season marks a pivotal moment for Indiana football.

Success would establish the program as a legitimate Big Ten power and national contender. Struggles could suggest that 2024 was an outlier rather than a sustainable foundation.

The infrastructure for sustained success appears to be in place:

  • Contract extension providing stability
  • Increased funding
  • Recruiting momentum
  • Coaching continuity
  • Transfer portal additions addressing specific 2024 weaknesses

Indiana enters 2025 with unprecedented expectations and resources. The question is not whether the Hoosiers can compete but whether they can sustain excellence when the novelty wears off and opponents treat them as a legitimate threat rather than a surprising story.

The answer will determine whether Cignetti’s transformation represents a temporary breakthrough or the beginning of a new era in Bloomington.

The Next Billion Dollar Game

College football isn’t just a sport anymore—it’s a high-stakes market where information asymmetry separates winners from losers. While the average fan sees only what happens between the sidelines, real insiders trade on the hidden dynamics reshaping programs from the inside out.

Our team has embedded with the power brokers who run this game. From the coaching carousel to NIL deals to transfer portal strategies, we’ve mapped the entire ecosystem with the kind of obsessive detail that would make a hedge fund analyst blush.

Why subscribe? Because in markets this inefficient, information creates alpha. Our subscribers knew which coaches were dead men walking months before the mainstream media caught on. They understood which programs were quietly transforming their recruiting apparatuses while competitors slept.

The smart money is already positioning for 2025. Are you?

Click below—it’s free—and join the small group of people who understand the real value of college football’s new economy.

Free Subscription
BACK TO THE BLOG ARCHIVE
No related posts found.
VISIT OUR SHOP [COMING SOON]

LOAD MORE BLOG ARTICLES