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Week 11’s Hidden Gems: Why the Computers Love Indiana (-14.5) and Doubt Georgia (-2.5)

Mark Haines on November 7, 2024

College Football’s Week 11 Hidden Gems

Every Thursday afternoon, I lay out the games that have caught my analytical eye – the matchups where the numbers whisper something different than the conventional wisdom shouts. This week, I’m focused on three contests that feel like finding mispriced assets in an efficient market: Indiana, that offensive juggernaut masquerading as a No. 8 team, laying 14.5 points against Michigan’s statistical regression to mediocrity; Ole Miss, where the computers suggest Georgia’s dynasty might be vulnerable, priced at just +2.5 at home; and undefeated Army, dominating opponents by four touchdowns per game yet valued as mere 5.5-point favorites against North Texas’s explosive offense. Compare these picks with what you’ll hear on the Targeting Winners Podcast (dropping every Friday afternoon on Spotify, Apple, or wherever you consume your gambling insights) and make your own calls. In a sport where everyone claims to know what will happen next, sometimes the best strategy is following where the numbers – not the noise – lead you.

Michigan at No. 8 Indiana

In the grand theater of college football, where narratives shape reality as much as the numbers that describe it, there’s something deliciously compelling about Indiana’s position heading into Week 11. The Hoosiers, those perennial Big Ten afterthoughts, find themselves winning and dominating – the kind of dominance that makes the spreadsheet jockeys at FanDuel set a -14.5 point spread against Michigan. Yes, that Michigan.

The analytics tell a story that would have seemed unthinkable just months ago. Under first-year coach Curt Cignetti, Indiana’s offense isn’t just good – it’s third in the nation, averaging 47 points per game. This kind of statistical anomaly makes you wonder if someone’s Excel formula has gone haywire. But no, the Hoosiers are genuinely reshaping the geometry of Big Ten football. At the same time, Michigan’s offense has become a case study in regression to the mean, ranking an almost incomprehensible 116th nationally in scoring.

The quants have spoken, and their computers have run 20,000 simulations of this matchup. In 86.9% of these digital futures, Indiana emerges victorious. If you’re wondering what this looks like in real numbers, that’s 17,380 victories to 2,620 losses. The machines think Indiana will win by 16.8 points, enough to cover the spread and then some.

But here’s where it gets interesting: The betting public, those eternal skeptics of sudden transformation, are still showing traces of doubt. While 66% of bets are riding with Indiana to cover, there’s a stubborn 34% clinging to the idea that Michigan will either pull off the upset or keep it within two touchdowns. It’s the kind of contrarian betting behavior that usually signals either prescience or delusion – and we won’t know which until Saturday afternoon.

Indiana’s perceived slight in the College Football Playoff rankings is the most fascinating subplot. Despite being undefeated, they sit at No. 8, with the committee pointing to their 82nd-ranked strength of schedule like accountants finding a rounding error in the books. Their best wins? Washington and Nebraska, both 5-4. It’s the kind of resume that makes the traditional powers smirk – until they face this offensive juggernaut beating FBS opponents by nearly four touchdowns per game.

Followers of the Targeting Winners Podcast know that betting against momentum like Indiana’s is akin to fighting the tide. The analytics give them an 86.5% chance of making the playoff, projecting 11.3 wins this season. Meanwhile, Michigan is projected for just 6 wins – the number that makes you wonder if someone accidentally divided by two.

When CBS’s cameras roll at 3:30 PM Eastern on Saturday, we’ll witness either the continuation of Indiana’s improbable ascension or a reminder that football, like markets, can correct violently and without warning. The smart money – and the machines – are betting on the former.

But then again, that’s why they play the games.

No. 3 Georgia at No. 16 Ole Miss

There’s a peculiar beauty in watching markets adjust to new information, and that’s exactly what we’re witnessing in Oxford this week. The mighty Georgia Bulldogs, winners of 11 of their last 12 against Ole Miss, arrive as mere 2.5-point favorites. The spread makes you wonder if the bookmakers know something the rest of us don’t.

The analytics paint a picture that would have seemed absurd just weeks ago. The SP+ model, that grand attempt to quantify college football’s “most sustainable and predictable aspects,” has Ole Miss winning 28-26. In predictive models, this is the equivalent of a Wall Street quant suggesting that a blue-chip stock is about to underperform. The computers have run their simulations 20,000 times, and in 53.9% of these digital futures, the Rebels emerge victorious. It’s a razor-thin margin that suggests we’re witnessing something approaching perfect market efficiency in college football odds.

But here’s where it gets interesting: Ole Miss has been manufacturing points like a tech company manufactures growth statistics, ranking sixth nationally by averaging 23 points better than its opponents. Georgia, meanwhile, has been merely mortal, outperforming its competition by 11.7 points—the kind of regression that makes defensive coordinators wake up in cold sweats.

The most fascinating subplot in all this is the efficiency metrics. Ole Miss’s defense – yes, their defense – ranks third in FBS by surrendering just 0.192 points per play. It’s the kind of statistical anomaly that makes you double-check your spreadsheets. Georgia’s offense sits at a respectable 15th nationally, allowing 0.286 points per play. However, in the zero-sum game of elite college football, being merely “respectable” is often a predictor of impending doom.

The betting markets, efficient processors of public sentiment, show a slight lean toward convention—55% of bets are riding with Georgia. It’s as if the market can’t quite bring itself to believe what the numbers tell it, like investors holding onto a falling stock because they remember its glory days.

For those following the Targeting Winners Podcast, this game represents a classic conflict between narrative and numbers. The narrative says Georgia is still Georgia, still the team that demolished these same Rebels 52-17 last year in Athens. The numbers, however, tell a different story.

Carson Beck’s 11 interceptions loom over this game like a credit default swap in 2008 – a hidden risk that could suddenly become visible. Meanwhile, Jaxson Dart just finished carving up Arkansas for 515 yards and six touchdowns, the kind of performance that makes predictive models recalibrate their assumptions in real time.

When ABC’s cameras go live at 3:30 PM Eastern on Saturday, we’ll watch more than just a football game. We’ll be watching a market correction in real-time, a test of whether the traditional power structures of college football can withstand the assault of pure statistical efficiency. The FPI gives Georgia an 83.5% chance of making the playoff, while Ole Miss sits at 61.1%—numbers that could shift dramatically based on three hours in Oxford.

The smart money – and the machines – say Ole Miss by a field goal or less. In a sport increasingly dominated by data, sometimes the most radical act is simply believing what the numbers tell you.

No 25 Army at North Texas

In the efficient college football betting market, a price discovery problem occasionally emerges that makes you question everything you think you know about value. Consider Army, undefeated and ranked 25th, favored by merely 5.5 points against North Texas. The spread makes you wonder whether the market has identified a fundamental flaw in Army’s pristine record or if we’re witnessing a massive pricing error.

The numbers tell a story of two teams operating in entirely different realities. Army’s outscoring opponents by 26.6 points per game – the margin that typically commands double-digit spreads. But here’s where the market gets interesting: six of their seven FBS victories have come against teams with losing records. It’s like a hedge fund posting impressive returns while trading only the most predictable securities.

Enter North Texas, the Mean Green chaos merchants of the American Athletic Conference. They possess the conference’s highest-scoring offense, the statistical outlier that makes Army’s defensive metrics look like they might have been compiled in a different era of football. Their quarterback, Chandler Morris, just finished dissecting Tulane’s defense for 449 yards on 38-of-57 passing – the kind of efficiency that makes option-based teams break out in hives.

The betting market has priced this game like a tech stock during earnings season – volatile and uncertain. Army sits at -186 on the moneyline, which translates to an implied probability that seems almost quaint given their perfect record. The Black Knights are 6-0 as favorites this season, the kind of trend that typically makes sharps salivate. But North Texas, at +153, has shown a propensity for violence against point spreads, covering four times in eight attempts.

This game represents a classic market inefficiency for those following the Targeting Winners Podcast. Army’s backup quarterback engineered a 20-3 victory over Air Force, while Morris and company have treated defensive coordinators like day traders during a flash crash.

The total is 63.5, which suggests the market expects North Texas to dictate the tempo. This is a reasonable assumption considering Morris’s recent performance: 449 yards against Tulane, the kind of number that makes service academies reconsider their defensive philosophies.

When ESPN2’s cameras go live at 3:30 PM Eastern on Saturday, we’ll witness either a market correction or a confirmation that sometimes perfect records are less valuable than they appear. Army coach Jeff Monken might get his starting quarterback Daily back, but in a game where North Texas treats passing yards like venture capitalists treat revenue growth, it might not matter.

The computers and the sharps seem to be telling us that Army’s undefeated record is about to face its strongest stress test yet. In a sport increasingly dominated by offensive efficiency, sometimes the best bet is against perfection.

Who are you picking this week? Comment here.

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The Not-So-Sweet Survival Guide: College Football’s Week 11 Hot Seat Rankings

Mark Haines on November 5, 2024

It’s college football’s week 11 – that special time of year when athletic directors start pricing golden parachutes. At Arkansas, Sam Pittman (#1) watches Jaxson Dart throw for 515 yards against his defense and wonders if those moving trucks outside his office are just passing through . In Birmingham, Trent Dilfer (#2) has mastered the art of making UAB worse than “freakin’ Alabama,” while Temple’s Stan Drayton (#3) costs more per loss than some entire Group of Five coaching staffs.

Our Hot Seat Rankings start with these 10:

1. Sam Pittman – Arkansas

In the statistical carnage that was Ole Miss’s 63-31 dismantling of Arkansas, two numbers stood out like neon signs above a desperate Vegas casino: 515 and 6. That’s how many yards and touchdowns Jaxson Dart threw without a single interception—a feat no SEC quarterback had ever managed. His favorite target, Jordan Watkins, turned eight catches into 254 yards and five touchdowns, the efficiency that makes defensive coordinators contemplate career changes.

Lane Kiffin, college football’s resident chaos merchant, couldn’t resist twisting the knife with a post-game quip about airport tarmacs—a particularly cruel jab given that Sam Pittman might soon be familiar with them himself. In the merciless accounting of college football, Pittman’s seat isn’t just hot; it is approaching nuclear fusion.

2. Trent Dilfer – UAB

On Saturday, UAB’s Kam Shanks and Jalen Kitna shattered school records in a 59-21 victory over Tulsa that felt less like a breakthrough and more like a beautiful funeral. The numbers were staggering: Shanks’s 311 all-purpose yards, Kitna’s 404 passing yards, and six touchdowns—the statistics that usually save coaching careers. But in Birmingham, where Trent Dilfer has managed to transform a conference champion into a 2-6 cautionary tale, even victory feels like defeat.

The real story isn’t in Saturday’s box score—it’s in Dilfer’s infamous “It’s not like this is freakin’ Alabama” quip, the kind of comment that makes boosters reach for their checkbooks and their phones simultaneously. In less than two years, he’s taken Bill Clark’s ascending program—six straight winning seasons, two conference titles—and performed the sort of dismantling usually reserved for failed hedge funds or terminated football programs, something Birmingham knows too well.

The irony? Dilfer’s still collecting his $1.3 million salary while his team plays like they’re working for minimum wage against real competition. In the economics of college football, that’s the kind of inefficiency that doesn’t survive long—even with Mark Ingram in charge.

3. Stan Drayton – Temple

In the economics of college football, Temple University has managed to create a case study in how not to allocate resources. They’re paying Stan Drayton—a career running backs coach—$2.5 million annually to perform heart surgery. At the same time, Florida Atlantic handed Tom Herman the same job for the price of a luxury sedan. It’s the kind of financial decision that would have kept the late Lew Katz up at night, pacing his private jet’s cabin, checkbook in hand.

The cruel mathematics of Temple’s predicament reveals itself in two numbers: 55-0, the score by which SMU dismantled the Owls on national television, and $7.5 million, the remaining cost of Drayton’s contract. In a different era, when Temple had its own version of a Wall Street activist investor in Katz, this market inefficiency would have been corrected by Monday morning. But his son Drew, now on the Board of Trustees, treats the family fortune like a conservative bond portfolio—safe, steady, and utterly useless for the kind of radical intervention Temple football requires.

The tragedy isn’t just in losing—everyone loves Drayton the Man. It’s watching a university bet its football future on a position coach while having no hedge against failure. In North Philadelphia, where campus security costs outweigh football aspirations, they’re learning that love doesn’t show up in the win column.

4. Billy Napier – Florida

For three hours and fifty-six minutes on Saturday, Billy Napier lived in an alternate universe where Florida football still mattered. His Gators, held together with duct tape and populated partly by what appeared to be a local moving crew (they’d shown up early, anticipating a blowout), had somehow matched the mighty Georgia Bulldogs punch for punch. The score sat at 20-20, and Napier could almost feel his seat temperature dropping from nuclear to merely scalding.

But Georgia, like a cat toying with an injured mouse, was merely setting up the punchline. Carson Beck had thrown three interceptions, seemingly playing to Florida’s level, until you realized it was all part of the script. In four brutal minutes, the Bulldogs engineered a 75-yard drive, snatched an interception, and scored again—transforming what could have been Napier’s career-saving upset into just another SEC cautionary tale.

The cruelest part? Those last four minutes proved that the previous 56 had been merely Georgia’s idea of performance art, a masterclass in giving false hope to the doomed.

5. Dave Aranda – Baylor

At Baylor, Dave Aranda’s job security has behaved like a volatile tech stock—swooning early, rebounding late, and keeping traders guessing. After opening 2-4 with wins against only Air Force and something called Tarleton State, Aranda’s position looked about as secure as a crypto wallet password. But in the fluid market of college football coaching, even the most bearish positions can reverse course.

Two consecutive wins against Texas Tech and Oklahoma State have performed the kind of market correction usually reserved for Federal Reserve announcements. The remaining schedule—TCU, West Virginia, Houston, and Kansas, none currently above .500—looks less like a gauntlet and more like a carefully curated path to bowl eligibility. “Six wins and he’s back,” whispered one industry insider, with the kind of certainty usually reserved for insider trading tips.

The irony? Aranda, the defensive genius who once commanded premium value in the coaching marketplace, finds his future tied to the most basic of metrics: win six games or clean out your office. In Waco, where faith and football intersect with ten-figure endowments, salvation comes from a .500 record.

6. Sonny Cumbie – Louisiana Tech

In Huntsville, Texas, on a Tuesday night that felt more like a Samuel Beckett play than a football game, Sonny Cumbie’s Louisiana Tech team managed to lose 9-3 while winning almost every statistical category that matters. They outgained Sam Houston 312-268, held a rushing attack that averaged 200 yards per game to just 105, and forced two turnovers. By any rational measure, they should have won. But college football, like tragedy, follows its peculiar logic.

The box score reads like a hedge fund’s risk assessment report gone wrong: four turnovers, two turnovers on downs, and three points to show for it all. Twice, the Bulldogs penetrated within the 5-yard line in the fourth quarter alone, finding new and creative ways to self-destruct each time. This kind of performance makes athletic directors update their coaching search firms’ contact information.

The cruel irony? Cumbie’s defense played well enough to win a conference championship game. Instead, they watched their offense turn the red zone into a haunted house, fumbling away what little hope remained of salvaging their season. At 3-5, with Jacksonville State looming, Cumbie finds himself selling the one commodity no one in college football wants to buy: moral victories.

7. Joe Moorhead – Akron

Joe Moorhead’s return to Akron had all the elements of a classic homecoming story—the prodigal coordinator returns, older and wiser, ready to transform his former program. It was the kind of narrative Hollywood makes movies about. Instead, it’s become a documentary about entropy: two straight 2-10 seasons, with 2023 following the same inexorable path toward dysfunction.

Saturday’s 41-30 loss to Buffalo reads like a physics problem where all the equations work backwards. The Zips outgained Buffalo 452-390, dominated through the air 378-210, and won the third-down battle 43% to 23%. Ben Finley threw for 378 yards and four touchdowns—numbers that in any rational universe translate to victory. But Akron, like a time traveler who can only arrive after the critical moments have passed, spotted Buffalo a 38-7 lead before remembering how to play football.

The cruel irony? Moorhead was supposed to be the sure thing—the experienced head coach, the familiar face, the proven winner. Instead, he’s become living proof that in college football, like quantum mechanics, observation changes the outcome. In Akron, where they’ve spent decades trying to solve the equation of relevance, they’re learning that even the smartest professors sometimes fail the final exam.

8. Mark Stoops – Kentucky

Mark Stoops has achieved something that should be impossible in the physical universe of college football: becoming Kentucky’s all-time winningest coach (73 victories) while simultaneously watching his support evaporate like bourbon at a tailgate. It’s the kind of contradiction that makes quantum physicists scratch their heads—how can someone be the most successful coach in school history and a source of fan rebellion?

The 2024 season opened like a Southern Gothic novel—high expectations, veteran talent, and a schedule that read like a list of ancient curses. By week two against South Carolina, the plot had turned dark: the offensive line collapsed like a condemned building, and fans who’d once praised Stoops’ program building started treating his flirtation with Texas A&M like a betrayal in a Faulkner story.

The cruel irony? In a state where basketball championships are measured like bourbon vintages, Stoops made football matter. He turned seven straight bowl games into an expectation rather than a miracle. As whispers suggest he might walk away, Kentucky faces a terrifying question: What if their greatest football coach ever was also their last chance at sustained relevance? In Lexington, where basketball season can’t start soon enough, they learn that success and satisfaction rarely arrive in the same bottle.

9. Hugh Freeze – Auburn

In the Gothic horror story that is Auburn football, Hugh Freeze has managed to accomplish something previously thought impossible: making Jordan-Hare Stadium about as intimidating as a petting zoo. The latest chapter? A 17-7 loss to Vanderbilt that read less like a football game and more like an exorcism gone wrong—except the demons won.

The numbers tell a story of decay that would make Edgar Allan Poe proud: 4-10 against SEC opponents since his arrival, an offense that treats the end zone like it’s radioactive, and a fan base discovering that their traditional autumn rituals of victory have been replaced by something far more sinister: mediocrity. They’re not just losing; they’re losing to Vanderbilt at home, the kind of plot twist that makes Stephen King seem unimaginative.

The cruel irony? After enduring what they called “the worst coach in SEC history, ” Auburn hired Freeze to be their savior.” Now, as Freeze watches his quarterback Payton Thorne perform weekly reenactments of college football’s greatest disasters while Jarquez Hunter stands idle on the sideline, they learn a painful lesson: sometimes the cure can feel worse than the disease. On the Plains, where “War Eagle” once struck fear into visitors, they discover that not all resurrection stories have happy endings.

10. Lincoln Riley – USC

Lincoln Riley’s USC experiment has begun to resemble a Silicon Valley startup in freefall—the kind where the CEO starts banning journalists, restricting information flow, and contemplating whether to return the deposit on the party clown. The numbers tell the story of this implosion: 5-11 in their last 16 games, a stark reversal from the 17-3 start that had USC boosters dreaming of their next Pete Carroll.

Saturday’s 26-21 loss to Washington felt less like a football game and more like a hedge fund’s last trading day. Miller Moss threw three interceptions, each one driving down USC’s stock price a little further. The remaining schedule—Nebraska, UCLA, Notre Dame—looms like a series of margin calls. A bowl game, once considered a foregone conclusion in the Riley era, now feels about as sure as a cryptocurrency recovery.

The tragedy isn’t just in the losing—it’s in watching Riley transform from offensive genius to besieged executive. We expect his next move to come straight from his Oklahoma playbook: painting the windows black in Heritage Hall and the McKay Center. In L.A., where style points count double, Riley’s program has become something worse than unsuccessful: It’s become uncool.

Check out our complete list here. Share your thoughts here.

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College Football’s Hot Seat Rankings: Your Voice Matters

Mark Haines on November 3, 2024

The 2024 college football season has been a rollercoaster of expectations and disappointments, and no one knows this better than the fans. As we enter the final stretch, it’s time for you to weigh in on which coaches are feeling the heat and which ones might need to update their résumés. Your voice matters – cast your vote here.

Why Your Vote Matters Now

The landscape of college football has shifted dramatically this season. We’re seeing traditional powerhouses struggle, unexpected collapses, and fan bases growing increasingly restless. From Happy Valley to Los Angeles, from The Plains to The Hill, passionate fans question whether their programs are heading in the right direction.

The Notable Names:

James Franklin, Penn State

The numbers tell a story that Penn State fans know all too well: 13-26 against AP Top 25 teams, 3-18 against Top 10 teams, and a painful 1-10 record against Ohio State. The same old story played out in a year when the playoffs seemed within reach. Is being “good” good enough for Happy Valley?

Lincoln Riley, USC

Making $10 million per year comes with expectations, and at 4-5 (2-5 in conference play), Riley’s Trojans are in danger of missing a bowl game entirely. The shine from that 11-3 first season is fading fast, and the remaining games against Nebraska, UCLA, and Notre Dame could define his future.

Hugh Freeze, Auburn

When Vanderbilt becomes your latest disappointment in a season full of them, questions arise. Freeze’s Tigers are matching the identical SEC records that got his predecessor fired, and while recruiting rankings look promising, the on-field product tells a different story. That “snake oil salesman charm” might need more than future promises to satisfy the Auburn faithful.

Sam Pittman, Arkansas

Giving up 63 points at home to Ole Miss might be the final straw. When your head coach admits you got “out-played, out-coached, and out-physicaled,” it’s hard to maintain confidence. The question isn’t whether Pittman can get you to 6-6; it’s whether that’s enough for a program with Arkansas’s history.

Other Hot Seats to Watch

  • Ryan Walters (Purdue): A potential 1-11 season looms
  • Mike Norvell (Florida State): Last year’s ACC title might buy time, but 2024’s 1-7 conference record burns
  • Brent Pry (Virginia Tech): That 1-11 record in one-score games isn’t winning any favor
  • Kevin Wilson (Tulsa): Losing 45-7 at halftime to a previously 1-6 UAB team speaks volumes
  • Sonny Cumbie (Louisiana Tech): Three straight losing seasons could spell doom

Make Your Voice Heard

Now it’s your turn. Whether you’re a frustrated fan looking to send a message or a satisfied supporter wanting to back your coach, your vote matters. The temperature on these hot seats changes weekly, and your input helps shape the conversation about the future of these programs.

Cast your vote now and let these coaches know exactly where they stand. After all, in college football, the court of public opinion can be just as impactful as the scoreboard.

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Coaches Hot Seat is Targeting Winners for Week 10

Mark Haines on October 31, 2024

Okay, folks, get ready. It’s that time of the week again when we dive headfirst into the chaotic, beautiful mess that is college football. Friday’s episode of the Targeting Winners podcast (available on Spotify, Apple, or wherever you get your podcasts) is coming at you hot, and trust me, you don’t want to miss this. They’ll be talking Xs and Os, dissecting matchups, and uncovering those hidden gems that’ll have you cashing in come Saturday.

Today, I’ll share my weekend bets and prep with you.  I’m not just throwing darts at a board. I’m breaking down film, analyzing stats, and getting into the nitty-gritty.

This week, I’ve got three games I’m reviewing: San Diego State at Boise State, Ohio State at Penn State, and Pitt at SMU. We’re talking potential upsets, high-scoring shootouts, and maybe even a bit of old-fashioned smashmouth football. So read my breakdown below, make your picks, and fire up Spotify, Apple, or wherever you get your podcasts on Friday afternoon. Then, get ready to ride the wave with us.

San Diego State at (15) Boise State

The San Diego State Aztecs (3-4) will face the No. 15 Boise State Broncos (6-1) in a Mountain West Conference matchup on Friday, November 1, 2024, at Albertsons Stadium in Boise, Idaho14. The game will kick off at 8:00 p.m. ET and be broadcast on Fox Sports 14.

Betting Odds and Predictions

Boise State is heavily favored in this matchup:

  • Spread: Boise State -23.5
  • Moneyline: Boise State -2439, San Diego State +1096
  • Over/Under: 57.5 points14

The College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter (CFN FPM) has a slightly tighter spread of Boise State -18.54.

Key Factors

Home Field Advantage: Boise State has a strong home field advantage, but San Diego State has won at Albertsons Stadium in the past (2018 and 2012).

Head-to-Head Record: This will be the 10th meeting between the two teams, with Boise State holding a slight 5-4 advantage.

Recent Performance: Boise State has won every game where it has been favored this year, while San Diego State has failed to win as an underdog.

Against the Spread (ATS): San Diego State is 3-2 ATS as an underdog, while Boise State has failed to cover three times as a double-digit favorite.

Weather: The forecast calls for temperatures around 42 degrees with a chance of showers, which could impact game performance.

Outlook by Team

San Diego State:

  • New head coach Sean Lewis wants to improve last year’s 4-8 record.
  • The Aztecs have an 8.3% winning probability for this game.
  • Their season outlook improves after this game, with better winning probabilities against upcoming opponents.

Boise State:

  • The Broncos have a 91.7% winning probability for this game.
  • They are on track for a potential Group of Five spot in the College Football Playoff, and their remaining games have high winning probabilities.

Analysis

Okay, you’ve got this classic David vs. Goliath scenario brewing in Boise. San Diego State, the scrappy underdog, is rolling into town with a new coach and something to prove. They’re like the Oakland A’s of college football, trying to outsmart the system with grit and a lot of hustle. But then there’s Boise State, the perennial powerhouse, the kings of the blue turf. They’re the New York Yankees, used to winning and expected to dominate.

But here’s the thing: Boise State has this weird quirk. When they’re supposed to win big, they sometimes… don’t. It’s like they get bored or something. And San Diego State? Well, they’ve been defying expectations all season. They’re like that one stock you didn’t think would make a comeback, but suddenly it’s surging. Nobody saw it coming.

You might think this is just another game, but it’s more than that. It’s a clash of cultures, a test of wills. Can San Diego State, with its new coach and underdog mentality, pull off the upset? Or will Boise State crush their dreams with its home-field advantage and history of dominance? It’s a high-stakes game, and the tension is thicker than the Idaho potato soup they serve in the stadium.

Prediction

The air crackles with anticipation. The Broncos, bathed in the eerie glow of the blue turf, exude an aura of invincibility. But beneath the surface, a tremor of doubt. The Aztecs, eyes locked on their prey, carry the quiet confidence of a wolf pack circling its quarry.

This is not a game of mere statistics and spreadsheets. It’s a battle of souls, a collision of destinies. Boise State, the established power, yearns to maintain its grip on the throne. The hungry challenger, San Diego State, fights for recognition and a place at the table.

The final whistle blows. The scoreboard tells a story of Boise State’s dominance: 35-14. But the numbers don’t reveal the whole truth. They don’t show the fierce struggle, the moments of brilliance, the echoes of what could have been. San Diego State, though defeated, leaves the field with heads held high. They have pushed the giants to the brink, proven their mettle, and earned respect that transcends the final score.

Game 2: (3) Ohio State at (7) Penn State

No. 3 Ohio State (7-1) will face No. 7 Penn State (7-0) in a crucial Big Ten matchup on Saturday, November 2, 2024, at Beaver Stadium in University Park, Pennsylvania. The game will kick off at noon ET and be broadcast on Fox.

Betting Odds and Predictions

The betting odds and predictions for this game are notably close:

  • Spread: SMU -7.5
  • Moneyline: SMU -340, Pittsburgh +270
  • Over/Under: 59 points

Interestingly, the College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter (CFN FPM) slightly favors Penn State with a spread of Penn State -1.5.

Key Factors

  • Recent History: Ohio State has won the last seven meetings between these teams, indicating a psychological edge.
  • Home Field Advantage: Penn State will benefit from playing at Beaver Stadium, which could be a significant factor.
  • Against the Spread (ATS): Both teams are 3-4 ATS this season, suggesting neither has a clear advantage in covering the spread.
  • Recent Performance: Ohio State has failed to cover in their last two games, including a narrow loss to Oregon.
  • Weather: The forecast calls for partly cloudy conditions with mild temperatures, which shouldn’t significantly impact the game.

Outlook by Team

Ohio State:

  • The Buckeyes have a 47.5% winning probability for this game.
  • A win would keep them in contention for the Big Ten Championship and the College Football Playoff.
  • Their remaining schedule looks favorable, with high winning probabilities against most opponents.

Penn State:

  • The Nittany Lions have a 52.5% winning probability for this game.
  • A win could potentially secure their spot in the College Football Playoff and the Big Ten title game.
  • Their remaining schedule appears relatively easy, with high winning probabilities against all opponents.

Analysis

This game is a real barnburner. Ohio State, the big, bad Buckeyes, strolling into Happy Valley like they own the place. They’re the Goldman Sachs of college football, all about tradition and pedigree. But Penn State? They’re the hungry upstarts, the Robinhood traders trying to disrupt the establishment.

Now, on paper, Ohio State should have this in the bag. They’ve got the history, the talent, the whole nine yards. But something’s not quite right. They’ve been stumbling lately, like a thoroughbred with a pulled hamstring. And Penn State? They’re playing with a fire in their belly, a chip on their shoulder. They’re like that meme stock, GameStop, ready to explode.

But here’s the kicker: Penn State has this weird thing about pressure. It’s like they get stage fright when the spotlight’s on. And Ohio State? Well, they’re used to the big stage. They thrive on it. It’s like they’re playing with house money.

This game is not just about X’s and O’s. It’s about psychology, about who wants it more. With their home crowd and underdog mentality, can Penn State pull off the upset? Or will Ohio State silence the doubters with their championship pedigree and ability to perform under pressure? It’s a high-stakes game, folks, and the tension is thicker than a Philly cheesesteak.

Prediction

This is not merely a contest of athletic prowess. It’s a clash of wills, a battle for supremacy. Hungry for victory, Penn State seeks to break the chains of history. Ohio State, the reigning king, fights to preserve its legacy.

The final whistle echoes through the valley. The scoreboard illuminates the night: Penn State 24, Ohio State 21. The upset is complete. The Nittany Lions have roared to victory, their hearts and spirit carrying them through the storm. Ohio State, wounded but not broken, retreats into the night, knowing that the battle for dominance has just begun.

Game 3: Pitt @ SMU

No. 18 Pittsburgh (7-0, 3-0 ACC) will face No. 20 SMU (7-1, 4-0 ACC) in a crucial ACC matchup on Saturday, November 2, 2024, at Gerald J. Ford Stadium in University Park, Texas—the game broadcast on the ACC Network.

Betting Odds and Predictions

The betting odds for this game favor SMU:

  • Spread: SMU -7.5
  • Moneyline: SMU -340, Pittsburgh +270
  • Over/Under: 59 points

Interestingly, the College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter (CFN FPM) sees the game as a “pick’em”.

Key Factors

Historical Record: SMU leads the all-time series 3-2-1, with their last meeting in 2012.

Recent Performance: Pittsburgh is undefeated at 7-0, while SMU has a strong 7-1 record.

Against the Spread (ATS): Pittsburgh has been excellent ATS at 6-1, including 2-0 as an underdog. SMU has failed to cover three times as a favorite this season.

Weather: The forecast calls for rainy conditions, which could impact the game plan for both teams.

Quarterback Play: SMU’s switch to Kevin Jennings at quarterback has recently improved their performance.

Outlook by Team

Pittsburgh:

  • The Panthers have a 50.6% winning probability for this game.
  • They’ve won many close games this season, suggesting luck and resilience.
  • Their defense has been opportunistic, with three pick-sixes in their last game against Syracuse.

SMU:

  • The Mustangs have a 49.4% winning probability for this game.
  • They’ve shown consistent improvement, especially since changing quarterbacks.
  • SMU is coming off a game with six turnovers, which is likely an anomaly.

Analysis

In this matchup, we have two overperforming squads defying preseason predictions, each with a unique storyline. Pittsburgh, sitting undefeated, has won a series of nail-biters, showing grit but perhaps testing the bounds of luck. Conversely, SMU has been on a steady upward trajectory, bolstered by a passionate home crowd that could be a game-changer.

Key Factors to Watch:

Turnover Battle: Both teams have recently emerged from turnover-heavy games that were borderline chaotic. But volatility doesn’t tend to linger; we’re likely to see a reversion to the mean here. This could give an edge to whichever team capitalizes on each opportunity.

SMU’s Dual-Threat QB: Pittsburgh’s defense hasn’t faced a genuine dual-threat quarterback, which will test their ability to handle both the pass and the scramble. SMU’s quarterback, Jennings, brings a dynamic quality that could break open Pittsburgh’s defensive schemes.

Weather Impact: Forecasts call for rain, which often turns passing into a slippery gamble. In such conditions, expect a heavy reliance on the ground game, potentially increasing the chance of turnovers, fumbles, and short-field opportunities.

Prediction

While Pittsburgh has proven itself resilient in close encounters, SMU’s home-field advantage and steadily improving roster could tilt the scales. Jennings and the Mustangs’ offense should be capable of pressuring Pittsburgh’s defense in ways they haven’t yet experienced this season. Given a return to average turnover rates and SMU’s balanced approach, they look positioned to edge out the Panthers.

Score Prediction:

SMU 31, Pittsburgh 24

This forecast aligns with the current betting odds, reflecting the likely tightness of the contest. With the potential for rain to stymie offensive flow, the game should settle under the 59-point over/under, as weather conditions push teams to lean more on the ground game and conservative strategies.

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The Coaching Carousel is Picking Up

Mark Haines on October 30, 2024

The college football coaching carousel is spinning.

Four coaches have been shown the door this year, even before Mike Bloomgren got the boot at Rice over the weekend. Let’s recap:

  • Jeff Tedford (Fresno State): Stepped down in July due to health concerns. It was a tough break for Fresno State, as Tedford had them back on track.
  • Blake Anderson (Utah State): Fired in July after allegedly contacting a domestic violence victim and witness. It is a serious situation and a reminder that off-field issues can have major consequences.
  • Will Hall (Southern Miss): Let go after a disappointing 1-6 start. Sometimes, the results aren’t there, and a change is needed.
  • Mike Houston (East Carolina): Also fired after a rough start to the season. This is another case of expectations not being met.

With Bloomgren out at Rice, there will be five coaching changes in October. We expect fewer coaching changes than we saw during the 2023 season, but the pace of changes will accelerate as the season continues.

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Hot Seat Heat Wave: Stoops, Dilfer, and Drayton Feeling the Burn

Mark Haines on October 29, 2024

A Hot Seat Heatwave is heading our way, featuring seats under some of the biggest names in the game. Every week, we’re tracking the coaches feeling the pressure, those whose jobs are on the line with every win and loss. This week, we’ve got a new entry into our Top 10, plus updates on two coaches facing mounting scrutiny as their programs struggle to find their footing. Get ready, folks, because things are about to get interesting.

Entering the top 10 this week is Mark Stoops at Kentucky

Mark Stoops – Kentucky

  • Conference: SEC
  • Base Salary: $9,000,000
  • School Win Percentage: 52.1%
  • Career Win Percentage: 52.1%
  • Stoops has a solid record but faces high expectations, given his substantial salary.

Let’s delve into the remarkable transformation under Mark Stoops. He took the reins at Kentucky, a program once considered the SEC’s underdog, and turned them into a formidable contender. It’s a story of resilience and determination. He inherited a 2-10 team and sculpted them into a consistent bowl contender, shattering decades-long losing streaks against rivals like Florida and Tennessee. He even led them to 10-win seasons, a feat they hadn’t achieved since the disco era.

However, with success comes the burden of expectations. The weight of these expectations is palpable, and it’s starting to take a toll on Stoops. The fans are growing impatient. They’re weary of the 7-5 seasons, the predictable offense, and the losses to teams they believe they should outplay. They see the potential in the team and question why Kentucky isn’t vying for SEC titles.

Now, Stoops isn’t backing down. He’s got that tough-guy mentality, that “I’ve been here before, I’ll weather this storm” attitude. But the pressure’s mounting. He needs to find a way to get this offense rolling, win those crucial games, and show that Kentucky can take that next step.

Here’s the twist: his buyout is surprisingly low. This opens up a world of possibilities for Kentucky. If the situation doesn’t improve, they could make a change without incurring significant financial strain. Stoops crafted something extraordinary at Kentucky, but he’s now standing at a crossroads. He needs to evolve, adapt, and demonstrate that he can elevate this program to the next level. The clock is ticking, Mark. It’s time to silence the skeptics.

Trent Dilfer: From Super Bowl Champ to College Flop?

Trent Dilfer, UAB

  • Conference: American
  • Base Salary: $1,300,000
  • School Win Percentage: 26.3%
  • Career Win Percentage: 26.3%
  • Hot Seat member Adam Binaut points out: UAB has been outscored 150-55 in their last three games. This program is on life support.

Trent Dilfer stepped into UAB with a ton of hype, a Super Bowl ring, and… well, not much else. Let’s be honest: The guy had never coached college ball. He inherited a winning program and a team that crushed it year after year. And what happened? They fell apart. It’s a situation that’s left fans and analysts alike scratching their heads in frustration.

5-14. That’s the record. A far cry from the championship banners they were hanging before he got there. Sure, they had a flashy offense for a minute, breaking records and all that. But records don’t win games, do they? The defense? It was a complete disaster. And to top it off, Dilfer’s out here making comments that rub everyone the wrong way.

Look, I get it. Sometimes, things don’t work out. But this? This feels different. This feels like a mismatch from the start. UAB deserves better. They deserve a leader who can build on what they have, not tear it down. The clock’s ticking, Trent. It’s time to step up or step aside.

Stan Drayton: Can “Culture Change” Save His Job at Temple?

Stan Drayton – Temple

  • Conference: American
  • Base Salary: $2,500,000
  • School Win Percentage: 25.0%
  • Career Win Percentage: 25.0%
  • Drayton’s third year at Temple hasn’t seen much improvement, keeping him on the hot seat.

Stan Drayton came into Temple preaching this whole “culture change” thing. Lots of talk about trust, ownership, and building the guys up. And hey, you can see some of that. The team has a different vibe. But let’s be blunt: winning cures everything. And right now, Temple ain’t winning.

8-24. That’s the record. Not exactly inspiring, is it? You can talk about “building” all you want, but at some point, you gotta show results. Drayton hasn’t.

He’s lost talent to more prominent programs, struggled to recruit, and those offensive and defensive lines? Yikes. Needs a serious overhaul.

Check out the complete rankings here and leave any comments here.

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Bloomgren Era Ends at Rice – Fifth Coaching Change This Season

Mark Haines on October 28, 2024

Well, folks, the Mike Bloomgren experiment in Houston has finally ended. Rice has decided to move on from their head coach after seven seasons, a 24-52 record, and a disappointing 2-6 start to this year.

Bloomgren did manage to get the Owls to back-to-back bowl games, which is something, I guess. But let’s be honest, a losing record like that just isn’t cut it in today’s college football landscape.

It’s tough to see a coach lose his job, but sometimes a change is necessary. Hopefully, Rice can find someone to take them to the next level.

As for Bloomgren, I’m sure he’ll land on his feet somewhere. He’s a good coach with a solid track record. Maybe a fresh start is precisely what he needs.

The Coaching Carousel is Picking Up

The college football coaching carousel is spinning.

Four coaches have been shown the door this year, even before Bloomgren got the boot. Let’s recap:

  • Jeff Tedford (Fresno State): Stepped down in July due to health concerns. It was a tough break for Fresno State, as Tedford had them back on track.
  • Blake Anderson (Utah State): Fired in July after allegedly contacting a domestic violence victim and witness. It is a serious situation and a reminder that off-field issues can have major consequences.
  • Will Hall (Southern Miss): Let go after a disappointing 1-6 start. Sometimes, the results aren’t there, and a change is needed.
  • Mike Houston (East Carolina): Also fired after a rough start to the season. This is another case of expectations not being met.

With Bloomgren out at Rice, there will be five coaching changes in October. We expect fewer coaching changes than we saw during the 2023 season, but the pace of changes will accelerate as the season continues.

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Week 9 is in the books. Cast your vote for the Coaches Hot Seat!

Mark Haines on October 27, 2024

Week 9 is in the books, and you know what that means… the heat is turning up! We’ve been tracking the whispers, the rumblings, the outright explosions on the sidelines all season long. Now, it’s YOUR turn to weigh in.

For the first time EVER, we’re opening up the Coaches Hot Seat rankings to a fan vote. That’s right, YOU get to help decide who’s feeling the burn and who’s (somehow) still skating by.

Here’s the deal:

  • We asked, you answered. We’ve compiled a list of the most nominated coaches from our social media channels.
  • We’ve got our own top 10 brewing (and let me tell you, there are some SHOCKERS in there).
  • But ultimately, it’s up to YOU. Head over to the Coaches Hot Seat forum and cast your vote! You can vote for as many coaches as you think deserve a spot on the list.
  • Think we missed someone? Drop their name in the comments!

This is YOUR chance to make your voice heard. We’ll be combining your votes with our own proprietary algorithm (it’s top-secret, folks) to create the definitive Coaches Hot Seat rankings for Week 10.

Click here to cast your vote.

Let’s make some noise.

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Week 9 Featured Games:The Underdogs, the Upsets, and the Unraveling

Mark Haines on October 26, 2024

Step back from the spreadsheets, the power rankings and the expert predictions – Week 9 featured games are about to remind us why we watch this sport in the first place: for the moments that defy logic and rewrite the script.

Early Game

No. 12 Notre Dame vs. No. 24 Navy

Noon Eastern/9:00 AM Pacific

Network: ABC

This isn’t just a football game; it’s a collision of worlds. Notre Dame, the wounded lion, stumbles into the arena, its playoff hopes hanging by a thread. Five starters down, they’re a symphony orchestra missing half its instruments. And Navy? They’re the barbarians at the gate, 6-0 and averaging 45 points a game, led by Blake Horvath, a quarterback who turns the triple option into a weapon of mass destruction. Imagine Barry Sanders with a playbook designed to make defensive coordinators spontaneously combust. The line moved? You bet it did. The smart money knows: Notre Dame’s defense is built for finesse, not this kind of organized chaos. They’re chess players facing a barroom brawl. If Navy pulls off the upset, it’s not just a win; it’s a statement. A declaration that the Midshipmen belong in the playoff conversation, while the Irish are left wondering where it all went wrong.

Afternoon Games

No. 21 Missouri at No. 15 Alabama

Gametime: 3:30 PM Eastern/12:30 PM Pacific

Network: ABC

The eyes of the college football world are on Tuscaloosa. Not just because Alabama has stumbled – two losses in three games is practically an apocalypse in these parts – but because a new era has dawned. The offensive guru, Kalen DeBoer, takes the reins from the legendary Nick Saban. The pressure is immense. Can DeBoer exorcise the ghosts of Alabama’s recent struggles and establish his reign? Or will Eli Drinkwitz and his Missouri Tigers play the role of party crashers, exposing the vulnerabilities of a transition program? This isn’t just a game; it’s a referendum on the future of Alabama football.  

No. 5 Texas at No. 25 Vanderbilt

Game Time: 4:15 PM Eastern/1:15 Pacific

Network: SEC Network

While Alabama grapples with a new identity, Vanderbilt embraces its unexpected transformation. They’ve slain giants, toppling Alabama and sending shockwaves through the SEC. Now, they face another test: the Texas Longhorns, a team still finding its footing after a humbling loss to Georgia. Diego Pavia, the Commodore quarterback, embodies this new Vanderbilt: fearless, confident, and ready to take on anyone. Texas, meanwhile, needs to rediscover its swagger. Can they overcome the chaos in Nashville and avoid becoming another victim of Vandy’s magic? Or will the Commodores continue their Cinderella story, proving their rise is no fluke?

Evening Game

No. 3 Penn State at Wisconsin

Game Time: 7:30 PM Eastern/4:30 PM Pacific

Network: NBC

The whispers are swirling in Happy Valley. “Ohio State, Ohio State, Ohio State.” It’s the biggest game on Penn State’s horizon, a clash of titans that could decide the Big Ten East. But first, there’s the matter of Wisconsin, a team lurking in the shadows, hungry to play spoiler. Fresh off a bruising battle with USC, Penn State can’t afford to look past this one. Camp Randall at night is a cauldron of noise and fury, a place where dreams go to die. But this Penn State team, led by the cool-headed Drew Allar, has the grit and the talent to silence the doubters. Their defense is a fortress, and Allar is growing into a true field general. Can they weather the storm in Madison and escape with their undefeated season intact? Or will Wisconsin, sensing vulnerability, deliver a knockout blow and send shockwaves through the Big Ten?

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Coaches on Fire? Readers Respond to the Hot Seat Rankings

Mark Haines on October 25, 2024

Welcome back to the Coaches Hot Seat, where we dissect the volatile world of college football coaching and track those whose seats are getting too toasty for comfort. Today, we’re tackling our readers’ fiery feedback and passionate perspectives. Because let’s face it, college football fandom is a crucible of emotions, and sometimes those emotions boil over. So hang on – we’re about to explore the highs and lows, the agreements and disagreements, and the raw, unfiltered takes from the passionate community that makes college football what it is.

A Fan’s Take: Will Hall’s Legacy and the Future of Southern Miss Football

“Will Hall is a good man who did many great off the field teams for the program. But, on the field, it just didn’t work out. His “last season” (2023) was 3-9, replicating his first season, and now this 1-6 start that finally led to the plug being pulled. Southern Miss not many years ago under Jeff Bower and Larry Fedora, consistently had winning records and made bowl games. Jay Hopson had winning teams every year, until resigning after the first game of 2021 after losing to South Alabama.

In the landscape of NIL and up and rising programs like South Alabama that have cut into their recruiting pool, it is going to take a home run hire to bring USM back to relevance in my opinion.”

You bring up some great points about the challenges facing Southern Miss football. It’s a brutal landscape, with the rise of NIL and programs like South Alabama making it harder to recruit top talent.

Will Hall indeed had some success off the field, and we wish him all the best in his future endeavors. Ultimately, wins and losses matter most in college football, and unfortunately, those weren’t consistently enough during his tenure.

As you mentioned, Southern Miss has a proud football tradition with a history of success under coaches like Jeff Bower and Larry Fedora. The fans in Hattiesburg are hungry to get back to that level, and it will take a dynamic leader and a strong recruiting effort to make that happen.

We’re excited to see who Southern Miss hires as its next head coach. It’ll be interesting to follow their search and see what direction they decide to take. Hopefully, they can find someone to bring the Golden Eagles back to prominence in the Sun Belt!

“Do Some Research!”: Fans Demand Huff’s Hot Seat Status

How do you not list Charles Huff in your Coaches Hot Seat Rankings? 20 coaches with a hotter seat is complete BS!! He almost got fired last year and still sucks!!! He blew a 23-3 in the 4th quarter and almost blew another lead against Georgia State. We know you don’t care about the smaller schools. The fact that nobody has Huff on the hot seat at this point in the season is ridiculous!! Do some research, probably don’t even know the Sun Belt exists. At least pretend to care about smaller schools like Marshall.

Look, I get it. It’s infuriating. You’ve got a coach who, in your eyes, just isn’t cutting it. The team’s underperforming, and to add insult to injury, nobody seems to notice or care. It’s like Marshall football exists in its own little bubble, right?

Believe me, I understand that frustration.

But here’s the thing: you’re not alone. We see those smaller schools grinding it out, battling every week. Look at our Hot Seat rankings – we’ve got coaches from smaller programs all over the list. Did we miss Marshall this time? Absolutely. And that’s on us. We’re not perfect.

But here’s where you come in. This isn’t just my list. It’s a conversation. Our community, our members – you guys – you have a voice. You provide the insights and the on-the-ground perspective that we need. And guess what? Starting next week, you’re going to have even more say. We’re putting the power in your hands with community voting.

So speak up. Let your voice be heard. This is how we build a truly comprehensive and insightful Hot Seat ranking – together.

Fan Reaction to Riley’s Reign

This is year 3, and “coach” Lincoln Riley can collect $12,000,000 per year for the rest of the decade.

The stadium was 1/3 full on Saturday. Will Jennifer Cohen be handing tickets out at the border before the ND game to fill seats? Lincoln better be #1 on the hot seat list. He was there last year.

“Better be?” “1/3 full?” Okay, let’s dive into this.

First, let’s acknowledge the elephant in the room: Lincoln Riley is making money. A reported $10 million a year (not 12) is a lot of cheddar, and with that comes a certain expectation. USC expects to win, and they expect to win big.

He’s also got a reported $87 million buyout. Do you want to know why he’s not #1? There are 87 million reasons why.

Wisconsin and Penn State were sellouts. So are Nebraska and Notre Dame.

I’ve been critical of certain aspects of Riley’s program at USC, but let’s not get ahead of ourselves.

So, let’s hold off on the “better be’s” and the panic buttons. It’s more likely that he decides to leave on his own rather than USC buying him out.

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