Everything about College Football Coaches
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There are many FBS Coaching Changes this weekend as the 2024 season winds down.
Check out our Week 15 Coaches Hot Seat Rankings released Tuesday morning.
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Congratulations to Blake Harrell, who was named the new head coach at East Carolina today. There are 12 other FBS openings shown below:
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In the high-stakes college football casino, the usual season-end trading frenzy has given way to something more unusual: fiscal restraint. We’re calling it “The Great Coaching Correction of 2024.” You see, athletic departments across the country are staring down a triple-witching hour of financial obligations that would make even a seasoned hedge fund manager break into a cold sweat: massive coaching buyouts, the impending $20 million House settlement expense per school, and another estimated $20 million (first year) hit from revenue sharing with athletes. Suddenly, the market for coaching talent is behaving less like cryptocurrency in 2021 and more like banks during a Federal Reserve stress test.
Consider Billy Napier at Florida, a case study in modern football economics. In a world where 70% of Florida’s NIL payments flow to underclassmen—a stat that would make any Wall Street analyst question the business model’s sustainability—Napier has somehow convinced his CEO, Scott Strickland, to double down on their position. It’s the contrarian bet that either makes or ends careers. The market had priced Napier for failure after the Miami and Texas A&M disasters, but like a value investor spotting hidden assets, Strickland saw something others missed: stability in chaos. Or perhaps more accurately, he saw the price tag of starting over.
Meanwhile, Sam Pittman presents a different sort of market inefficiency in Arkansas. At 62, with a hip that’s giving out, he’s like an aging blue-chip stock with solid fundamentals but questionable long-term prospects. The twist? This comes courtesy of Jackson Collier of the Hardwood Hawgs Podcast – hidden in plain sight in his contract is a provision that would make any compensation committee blush: hit seven wins, including a bowl game, and trigger an automatic extension and raise. This incentive structure would make even the most hardened private equity executive wonder about governance. Let me repeat that – if he gets to seven wins – LA Tech plus one other, including the bowl – he gets a raise and extension. Completely doable.
But the real arbitrage play is happening in Waco, Texas, where Dave Aranda’s job security has behaved like a volatile tech stock—swooping early, rebounding late, and keeping traders guessing. After opening 2-4 with wins against only Air Force and something called Tarleton State, Aranda’s position looked about as secure as a crypto wallet password. Yet here he is, three wins later, trading above his September lows on volume. His contract runs through 2029, and in this bear market for buyouts, that’s starting to look less like a liability and more like a forced diamond-hands strategy. If he is a smidge above .500, he stays.
The distressed assets division brings us to Marshall’s Charles Huff, a coach whose contract is expiring like a soon-to-mature junk bond. At 27-20 over four seasons, including a telling 5-1 against non-Power Four competition this year, Huff’s position looks like a classic case of a middle-market firm unable to compete with the more prominent players. The smart money is betting on a change, though in this capital-constrained environment, even obvious moves come with additional scrutiny.
Then there’s Kevin Wilson at Tulsa, running a program performing like a penny stock in a bear market. When your highlight reel consists of a single comeback win against UTSA and a victory over 3-5 Louisiana Tech, you’re trading in territory usually reserved for companies about to be delisted. At 5-14 in two seasons, Wilson—a former blue-chip coordinator at Ohio State and Oklahoma—has turned premium pedigree into discount-bin performance.
The most fascinating short position in the market might be Trent Dilfer at UAB. In less than two years, he’s taken Bill Clark’s ascending program—six straight winning seasons, two conference titles—and performed a dismantling usually reserved for failed hedge funds. His now-infamous “It’s not like this is freakin’ Alabama” quip reads like a CEO dismissing disappointing earnings by saying, “We’re not Apple.” The market rarely forgives such hubris, but at a $4.1 million buyout, the cost of forgiveness in this economy starts to look like a luxury good.
At the extreme end of the risk spectrum sits Don Brown at UMass, whose position has moved from “distressed asset” to “complete write-off.” The market has spoken, and this particular security is being delisted.
However, perhaps the most telling indicator comes from the “too big to fail” institutions—Florida State, USC, Oklahoma, Nebraska—where the Mike Norvells and Lincoln Rileys of the world operate with the kind of security usually reserved for government bonds. These programs have determined that stability, even at a premium, is preferable to the volatility of the coaching free agency market, especially with the looming costs of settlements and revenue sharing casting shadows over their balance sheets.
Ultimately, college football’s coaching market operates with all the efficiency of a teenager with their first credit card. It overreacts to both success and failure, frequently misprices assets, and occasionally makes moves that would make a bankruptcy lawyer blush. But like all markets, it eventually finds its level—even if that level involves paying millions to make someone go away. This year, though, a cold dose of fiscal reality has tempered the usual irrational exuberance. When your industry is staring down $40+ million in new mandatory expenses, even the most trigger-happy athletic director thinks twice about adding another eight-figure buyout to the books.
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The college football coaching carousel is spinning.
Four coaches have been shown the door this year, even before Mike Bloomgren got the boot at Rice over the weekend. Let’s recap:
With Bloomgren out at Rice, there will be five coaching changes in October. We expect fewer coaching changes than we saw during the 2023 season, but the pace of changes will accelerate as the season continues.
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Well, folks, the Mike Bloomgren experiment in Houston has finally ended. Rice has decided to move on from their head coach after seven seasons, a 24-52 record, and a disappointing 2-6 start to this year.
Bloomgren did manage to get the Owls to back-to-back bowl games, which is something, I guess. But let’s be honest, a losing record like that just isn’t cut it in today’s college football landscape.
It’s tough to see a coach lose his job, but sometimes a change is necessary. Hopefully, Rice can find someone to take them to the next level.
As for Bloomgren, I’m sure he’ll land on his feet somewhere. He’s a good coach with a solid track record. Maybe a fresh start is precisely what he needs.
The college football coaching carousel is spinning.
Four coaches have been shown the door this year, even before Bloomgren got the boot. Let’s recap:
With Bloomgren out at Rice, there will be five coaching changes in October. We expect fewer coaching changes than we saw during the 2023 season, but the pace of changes will accelerate as the season continues.
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We’ve all been there. Your team is on a losing streak, the season’s slipping away, and that “Fire the coach!” chant starts echoing in your head. It’s cathartic. It feels like someone is taking action, like something is being done to right the ship.
Lately, however, athletic directors seem to be hitting the “snooze” button on those hot seat alarms. Coaches who, in years past, would be packing their bags are somehow clinging to their jobs. Why?
Firing a coach isn’t just about the head coach’s buyout (though those numbers are eye-popping enough on their own, as you can see in the chart below featuring buyouts for the top 20 on our Coaches Hot Seat Rankings). There’s a ripple effect that impacts the entire athletic department and can hamstring a program for years.
Take a look at that list. Those buyout numbers are staggering. Schools are paying tens of millions of dollars to coaches not to coach. That money could be used to improve facilities, hire top-tier assistants, and support other athletic programs.
And it’s not just the head coach’s salary. Assistant coaches have buyouts, too, which can add millions more to the tab. Suddenly, that “quick fix” looks like a costly gamble.
As if those costs weren’t enough, the recent House v. NCAA settlement has created a new financial landscape in college athletics. Schools can now directly pay their athletes a share of the revenue they generate. This is a game-changer, but it also means athletic departments have even less financial wiggle room. Those House settlement expenses are estimated to be around $20 million per school in 2025.
Think about it: a massive buyout combined with the new athlete compensation rules can seriously strain a school’s budget. And it’s not like the spending stops there. You’re still paying the fired coach and his staff NOT to coach while simultaneously shelling out money for the new coaching staff’s salaries. It’s like trying to buy a new car while paying off your student loans and a hefty credit card bill and still making payments on the old car you just traded in. Something’s gotta give.
It seems athletic directors are thinking twice before hitting that panic button. They’re facing a financial landscape that demands a more strategic approach. They’re weighing the long-term costs and benefits instead of bowing to pressure and making a rash decision. Maybe those hot seat coaches are getting a longer leash because school administrators are playing the long game, prioritizing financial stability and sustainable success over quick fixes.
Sometimes, patience and a long-term strategy are the more intelligent plays, even if they don’t provide the instant gratification of a coaching change.
What do you think? Is the cost of firing a coach worth it? Let me know here.
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Man, the coaching hot seat is scorching right now. First Mike Houston at ECU, and now Will Hall at Southern Miss? It’s a brutal reminder that winning is the only thing that matters in college football.
Hall came to Hattiesburg with a ton of promise. Deep ties to Mississippi and a successful stint at Tulane – it felt like a perfect fit. But sometimes, even the best-laid plans go up in flames.
A 1-6 start? Ouch. That’s not just a slump; that’s a full-blown meltdown. And when your only win comes against an FCS team? Well, let’s say the writing was on the wall.
Look, I’m not here to pile on. Coaching is a tough gig, especially in today’s pressure cooker environment. But the reality is, results matter. Fans demand them, and athletic directors expect them. When those results don’t come, something’s got to give.
It’s easy to point fingers at the offense, the defense, or the players. But at the end of the day, the head coach is the one who takes the fall. That’s the burden of leadership and a heavy one to bear.
So, what’s next for Southern Miss? They’ve got an interim coach in place, and the search for a new leader is on. It’s a chance for a fresh start, a new vision, a renewed sense of hope.
But for Will Hall, it’s a tough lesson learned. In this game, you’re only as good as your last season. And sometimes, that’s just not good enough.
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Let’s be honest: college football is a ruthless business. It’s a world where expectations are sky-high, patience wears thin, and yesterday’s hero can quickly become today’s casualty. Mike Houston just learned that lesson the hard way.
He arrived at East Carolina with a vision, ready to rebuild a program yearning for success. And for a while, it seemed like he was building something special. Back-to-back winning seasons and a bowl game victory were tangible signs of progress. But as anyone who’s ever played the game knows, momentum can shift instantly.
The 2023 season was a brutal turning point. A dismal 2-10 record exposed cracks in the foundation, and the pressure started mounting. Despite a glimmer of hope early in 2024, that crushing loss to Charlotte felt like a knockout punch.
Losing stings. But in this game, losing to your in-state rivals? That stings even more. An 0-7 record against North Carolina FBS schools? That’s a tough pill to swallow for any fanbase.
Let’s not forget the ever-spinning carousel of talent. College football today is a different beast. The transfer portal, NIL deals—it’s a constant battle to keep your roster stocked with playmakers. Houston struggled to navigate those choppy waters, ultimately costing him.
Now, the Pirates are left picking up the pieces, searching for a new captain to steer the ship. It’s a reminder that in this world, you’re only as good as your last season.
So, who’s next on the chopping block? The coaching hot seat is heating up, and the drama is just getting started. This is college football in 2024.
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