Blog Article

Week 11 – Coaches Hot Seat Rankings

Mark Haines on November 4, 2025

Week 11 is where the pretenders get exposed.

This is the part of the season where the rubber meets the road. Where your team and your staff prove they’ve “got it” – or don’t. The early-season excuses are gone. The “we’re still figuring things out” narrative doesn’t fly anymore. By Week 11, you either have a culture that wins close games, a roster that believes in the system, and donors who are writing checks – or you’re watching your career circle the drain in real-time. This is where coaches earn their next contract or start quietly updating their resumes. This is where athletic directors stop taking “we’ll turn it around” phone calls and start having very different conversations. Week 11 separates the programs that are building something real from those that are just delaying the inevitable. And for these ten coaches? We break each situation down below:

1. Jonathan Smith, Michigan State

Jonathan Smith is sitting on a $33M-$37M buyout that’s paid out over 62 monthly installments – the kind of number that makes firing him financially painful but not impossible. The problem? He’s already lost his fan base after humiliating losses, recruiting is cratering, and donors are hesitant to continue funding a sinking ship. New AD J Batt inherited this mess and now faces a massive decision to either force Smith to turn it around immediately or mobilize donors to eat the buyout and start over. Michigan State isn’t just losing games – they’re losing their identity. Every day Smith remains in place is another day that elite recruits look elsewhere.

2. Mike Locksley, Maryland

Mike Locksley has lost the locker room, and everyone knows it. NIL chaos has players checked out, fourth-quarter collapses have become routine, and October was an unmitigated disaster that had fans chanting for his firing in the stadium. His seat is scorching, #2 on the hot seat rankings, but he’s got one lifeline: a legitimately strong 2025 recruiting class that’s making the administration hesitate before pulling the trigger. The job market is also flooded with high-profile openings, which might give him a reprieve simply because Maryland doesn’t want to get into a bidding war and strike out. But make no mistake: donor support is evaporating, administration confidence is gone, and Locksley is one more ugly loss away from a Sunday morning firing.

3. Mike Norvell, Florida State

Mike Norvell dropped from #1 to #3 on the hot seat after a win over Wake Forest and enough player support to give the administration cover to hesitate on his $55M+ buyout. But dropping two spots isn’t a victory – it’s a temporary reprieve. He barely survived recent board meetings where his future was debated in real-time, boosters are in open revolt, and fan skepticism is at an all-time high. Behind closed doors, FSU is already planning for 2026 when that buyout becomes more manageable. Questions about fit, contract structure, and whether this marriage ever made sense continue to linger. Norvell bought himself time, but one more blowout loss and he’s right back at #1.

4. Luke Fickell, Wisconsin

Luke Fickell is torching every ounce of goodwill he built at Cincinnati, and it’s happening fast. Multiple blowout losses and a stagnant offense have Wisconsin fans throwing remotes through their TVs, while recruiting momentum has completely flatlined. The administration isn’t just disappointed, they’re demanding foundational change, the kind of language that means “fix this NOW or we’re moving on.” Recent staff decisions have only accelerated skepticism, and fan patience has completely evaporated, with social media ablaze and calling for a reset. The only thing keeping Fickell employed is his buyout, but donors are starting to ask the question every coach dreads: “How much would it actually cost to start over?” One more embarrassing loss, and that buyout begins looking like a bargain.

5. Justin Wilcox, California

Justin Wilcox has mastered the art of losing games in the fourth quarter, and Cal fans have moved past frustration into full acceptance mode. Navigating conference realignment chaos while failing to elevate recruiting has left the program stagnant at a time when adaptation is everything. The death knell? Donors have checked out completely; they’ve stopped writing checks, stopped believing in the vision, and started asking pointed questions about ROI. Doubts about future competitiveness aren’t whispers anymore; they’re loud conversations in booster meetings. Wilcox isn’t just on shaky ground – he’s standing on a fault line, and everyone is waiting for the earthquake.

6. Bill Belichick, North Carolina

Bill Belichick at North Carolina was supposed to be a revolution with six Super Bowl rings, transforming college football. Instead, it’s looking like a very expensive mistake. One Power Four win. Bowl eligibility hanging by a thread. And a coaching style built for NFL veterans that doesn’t translate to 18-year-olds who need recruiting, not drafting. The administration is losing patience fast because elite prospects are looking at UNC and seeing chaos, not a championship pedigree. Recruiting hasn’t improved; it has actually gotten worse. The contract details are murky but undoubtedly expensive, the kind of money that looked brilliant when everyone thought he’d win immediately and catastrophic now that he’s not. The experiment is failing, and everyone is watching to see how quickly UNC pulls the plug.

7. Shane Beamer, South Carolina

Shane Beamer fired his offensive coordinator and offensive line coach mid-season, a desperate move that screams “I’m fighting for my life.” And it might not be enough. Insiders are saying it plainly: unless South Carolina rallies for bowl eligibility, Beamer is done. Booster support is crumbling fast, with the money people who once championed his energy and “South Carolina guy” credentials now demanding answers about results. Pressure is coming from everywhere—fans, administration, donors—all pointing to the same conclusion: the current vision isn’t working. Recruiting is getting massacred by staff instability, because elite prospects don’t commit to programs where coaches are getting fired mid-season and the head coach’s future is a weekly radio debate. Beamer bought himself time with those firings, but bowl eligibility isn’t just a goal anymore—it’s a job requirement.

8. Tim Beck, Coastal Carolina

Tim Beck still has the backing of Coastal Carolina’s administration, thanks to recent bowl appearances, but that institutional patience has an expiration date that’s approaching quickly. Competitive culture is struggling in a Sun Belt where parity is real, and roster retention has become a nightmare in the portal era. Donors aren’t panicking yet, they’re not calling for his head yet, but they’re watching, whispering, and starting to ask the question every coach dreads: “What happens if we miss a bowl game this year?” That’s the line in the sand. Miss the postseason and the conversation changes overnight from “let’s give him more time” to “maybe it’s time for a new direction.” Beck has a lifeline, but it’s fraying fast.

9. Dave Aranda, Baylor

Dave Aranda’s shine has completely worn off at Baylor, and the 2021 Big 12 Championship feels like ancient history. A mediocre record, zero championship buzz, and a fan base that has moved from “trust the process” to “what exactly IS the process?” has the administration and boosters doing more than watching—they’re calculating buyout logistics. That’s not hot seat attention; that’s death row. The donor base is eroding, checking out, and wondering if their money is being invested wisely. Recruiting momentum is slowing to a crawl because elite prospects can smell uncertainty from a mile away. Aranda needs a strong finish, not just bowl eligibility, but something that reminds people why Baylor hired him in the first place. Because right now? Nobody remembers, and that’s the most dangerous position any coach can be in.

10. Mark Stoops, Kentucky

Mark Stoops was this close to being fired before a dramatic win at Auburn bought him a reprieve, but one victory doesn’t erase a multi-year SEC losing streak. Years of being demolished by conference opponents have left Kentucky feeling more like a basketball school’s side project than a legitimate SEC program, and the administration has had legitimate conversations about buyout numbers and replacement candidates. The buyout is sizeable but not insurmountable, meaning if things go south again, Kentucky can afford to move on. Stoops needs two things immediately: roster confidence (players who believe they can compete in the SEC) and donor confidence (boosters who believe their money isn’t being wasted). Both are shaky right now. The remaining games aren’t just about bowl eligibility; they’re about survival, and everyone is watching.

Where does your coach rank?

Check out the complete rankings for all 136 FBS coaches here.

Want the full story on every coaching hot seat in America?

Newsletter subscribers get the expanded treatment, deep dives on each of the top 10 coaches, game previews that actually matter, and curated stories about coaching moves and timely college football topics delivered straight to their inbox every Tuesday and Friday during the season. No fluff. No filler. Just the insider information you need to stay ahead of the coaching carousel before it becomes headlines everywhere else. This isn’t just another college football newsletter—it’s your edge on understanding the power dynamics, buyout negotiations, and behind-the-scenes pressure that determines who stays and who goes. Subscribe here and get the complete picture twice a week.

BACK TO THE BLOG ARCHIVE

No related posts found.

VISIT OUR SHOP [COMING SOON]

LOAD MORE BLOG ARTICLES

Blog Article

Week 9 — Top 10 Coaches Hot Seat Rankings

Mark Haines on October 20, 2025

1. Mike Norvell, Florida State (ACC)

Mike Norvell’s seat went from warm to “legit fire hot” after losing to Stanford 20-13 as a 17.5-point favorite.

The fourth straight loss. The fourth time Norvell’s had a four-game losing streak in Tallahassee. Florida State is 5-14 since the start of 2024, and sources say players were cracking jokes in the locker room about having to “respond” yet again—Norvell’s common phrase as losses mount. FSU went all-in with the portal, signing 23 transfers and spending well into the $20 million range on this roster between revenue share and NIL. The $55 million buyout—second-largest in college football history—no longer seems like a roadblock to many around the program.

Athletic director Michael Alford gave Norvell a dreaded vote of confidence, but boosters spent the flight from Palo Alto commiserating and planning.

2. Hugh Freeze, Auburn (SEC)

Hugh Freeze is under intense scrutiny after back-to-back losing seasons and a poor start in SEC play.

The Tigers risk another winless SEC campaign. Freeze’s buyout is considered manageable by Auburn standards, meaning a failure to show tangible improvement could result in his dismissal—especially with expectations unmet following his high-profile hiring from Liberty. Rumors and speculation about his future are fueling pressure across the program.

Sources tell Coaches Hot Seat that Freeze will most likely remain the head coach at Auburn through the remainder of the 2025 season.

3. Bill Belichick, North Carolina (ACC)

Bill Belichick’s debut season at North Carolina has been disastrous.

The Tar Heels are 2-4, struggling defensively and offensively in every Power Four matchup, and were recently embarrassed against California—where both Cal fans and the stadium scoreboard mercilessly trolled Belichick and girlfriend Jordon Hudson throughout the game. Athletic director Bubba Cunningham gave Belichick a “vote of confidence” despite it being well-known he did not want to hire him. Rumors already swirl about the school exploring options to move on from the legendary NFL coach.

Both the scheme and talent are failing to meet ACC standards.

4. Jeff Choate, Nevada (Mountain West)

Jeff Choate enters his second season needing rapid improvement after a brutal 3-10 debut and an 0-7 Mountain West mark.

He inherited a historically bad stretch for Nevada. But the Wolf Pack’s ongoing execution errors, penalty problems, and lack of visible player development mean that the administration and fans demand not just “process” but immediate results.

Patience is running out for anything short of a significant turnaround.

5. Joe Moorhead, Akron (MAC)

Despite incremental statistical improvement, Joe Moorhead’s 10-34 record in three years overshadows any progress at Akron.

Expectations are now for actual wins, not just competitive efforts. Last season’s upgraded defense regressed offensively, and major roster overhauls have yet to translate into results—Akron lost 42-28 to Ball State last Saturday. Frustration mounts among stakeholders tired of moral victories.

This is a do-or-die 2025 for Moorhead.

6. Luke Fickell, Wisconsin (Big Ten)

Luke Fickell’s tenure has soured dramatically after a string of shutout losses, leaving Wisconsin at 2-5 with its worst Power Four losing streak in decades.

The Badgers’ complete lack of offensive progress and recent blowouts, combined with a tough schedule, have ramped up calls for change. Fickell’s once-impressive resume is doing little to quell dissatisfaction in Madison.

However, sources at Wisconsin tell Coaches Hot Seat that the consensus in Madison is to bring Fickell back next season while increasing NIL investments and the use of the portal.

7. Butch Jones, Arkansas State (Sun Belt)

Butch Jones is again in hot seat territory after showing little progress during his time at Arkansas State, despite a small bright spot last year.

The 2025 season has started with poor results—zero FBS wins as of October—and his contract situation means the school could feasibly move on if the win-loss pattern doesn’t change. Arkansas State scraped by South Alabama 15-14 in their last game.

Growing fan impatience means Jones is running out of time.

8. Justin Wilcox, California (ACC)

Justin Wilcox faced major pressure after years of mediocrity as Cal struggled to transition into the ACC.

While flashes of improvement appeared early in 2025, his seat remains warm due to lack of signature wins and questions about long-term program direction. Cal beat North Carolina 21-18 last game—knocking off Bill Belichick—but nearly lost in a sloppy contest. With an expensive buyout but little recent success, Wilcox must keep showing progress.

Otherwise, fan unrest and alumni demands for a fresh direction will intensify.

9. Sonny Cumbie, Louisiana Tech (C-USA)

Sonny Cumbie’s program has stagnated with three straight losing seasons and an 15-28 overall record, keeping him near the top of Group of Five hot seat lists.

Once regarded as an offensive innovator, Cumbie’s tenure has been marked by unmet expectations and a fanbase tired of perpetual underachievement. Cumbie started the season at #1 on the Hot Seat rankings—his team has won some games this year, but the weak spot remains the offense, Cumbie’s specialty.

His job status is week-to-week barring drastic change.

10. Derek Mason, Middle Tennessee (C-USA)

Derek Mason is only in his second year, but a bleak 4-14 record and lack of progress following a 3-9 debut has rapidly sapped any initial optimism about his hire.

The Blue Raiders’ ongoing struggles and the absence of visible improvement—especially after a supposed “stabilizing” hire—have quickly landed Mason on national watch lists.

The program is evaluating his future as wins remain elusive.

BACK TO THE BLOG ARCHIVE

No related posts found.

VISIT OUR SHOP [COMING SOON]

LOAD MORE BLOG ARTICLES

Blog Article

Week 8 — Coaches Hot Seat Rankings

Mark Haines on October 14, 2025

Three coaches were fired on Sunday.

Trent Dilfer. James Franklin. Trent Bray.

Gone.

When coaches start falling in October, everyone else feels it. The phone calls start. The quiet meetings happen. The pressure that was already there gets cranked up to a whole new level.

Here are the 10 coaches under the most pressure in college football right now:

1. Billy Napier, Florida (SEC)

Trent Dilfer got fired Sunday with a 3-4 record.

Billy Napier is 21-23 at Florida. One upset over Texas doesn’t erase years of mediocrity. The Gators are paying him $7 million to compete for bowl eligibility while Georgia and Alabama compete for championships.

That’s unacceptable at Florida.

2. Hugh Freeze, Auburn (SEC)

Hugh Freeze came to Auburn with a redemption story.

A second chance after Ole Miss. Auburn gave him big money, full control, everything he needed to compete. The pressure is mounting because it’s not working.

Right now, Auburn isn’t competing.

3. Mike Norvell, Florida State (ACC)

Florida State hasn’t won an ACC game since November 2023.

Fifteen straight conference losses. Two full seasons. Zero ACC wins.

Mike Norvell went from 13-1 ACC Champions to unwatchable in less than a year.

FSU beat Florida earlier this season, and the media acted like they were “back.” They’re not—they’re 0-2 in ACC play. Norvell has had two years to figure out how to win in the ACC.

At Florida State, that’s unacceptable.

4. Jeff Choate, Nevada (Mountain West)

Jeff Choate is 4-15 at Nevada.

What worked at Montana State isn’t translating to the FBS level. Choate talks about tough, physical football, but Nevada is getting pushed around. The problem isn’t philosophy—it’s execution.

Choate is running out of time.

5. Joe Moorhead, Akron (MAC)

Joe Moorhead is 10-33 at Akron.

Elite offensive coordinator at previous stops. Winner at Fordham. But the Zips move the ball, rack up yards, then stall in the red zone—that’s coaching.

A 10-33 record over four years tells the story.

6. Luke Fickell, Wisconsin (Big Ten)

Luke Fickell was supposed to save Wisconsin football.

Wisconsin gave him everything—big money, full control, time to install his system. The defense has regressed, the offense looks disjointed, and the Big Ten is exposing every weakness. Wisconsin fans don’t want to hear about systems—they want wins.

Fickell isn’t meeting the Wisconsin standard yet.

7. Butch Jones, Arkansas State (Sun Belt)

Butch Jones failed at Tennessee.

Now he’s failing at Arkansas State. The Red Wolves are underperforming, players aren’t buying in, and fans aren’t showing up. Arkansas State thought Jones learned from his Tennessee mistakes.

The results suggest otherwise.

8. Justin Wilcox, California (ACC)

Cal got a fresh start with the move to the ACC.

New conference. New competition. New expectations. And here’s the number that matters: 8 wins.

That’s what Justin Wilcox needs to keep his job.

Look at what’s left on the schedule:

North Carolina
At Virginia Tech
Ranked Virginia
At Louisville
At Stanford
SMU

Six games—Cal needs to win five of them.

Wilcox is supposed to be a defensive guru who maximizes limited resources. But the Bears are getting manhandled by ACC competition—the defense can’t stop anyone, the offense can’t score. The math isn’t mathing.

Cal has a new chancellor—an alum, Class of ’83.

They hired Ron Rivera, NFL veteran head coach, as General Manager overseeing the football program. ESPN’s Gameday came to Berkeley last season. Everyone saw the potential. Cal has poured money and resources into this program—and they’re expecting results.

Can Willcox get the Golden Bears to 8 regular-season wins?

9. Sonny Cumbie, Louisiana Tech (C-USA)

Sonny Cumbie was supposed to bring offensive firepower to Louisiana Tech.

The Air Raid disciple. The Texas Tech coordinator everyone wanted to hire. But coordinating and head coaching are two completely different jobs—the offense has been inconsistent, the defense worse, and the program feels directionless.

Coordinator success doesn’t automatically translate to head coaching success.

10. Derek Mason, Middle Tennessee (C-USA)

Derek Mason is 4-14 at Middle Tennessee.

He’s a defensive coach in an era where offense wins championships. Mason is building a 2005 program in 2025, and Middle Tennessee can barely crack 20 points per game. MTSU fans are asking: What exactly are we getting better at?

If the answer is “nothing,” the pressure builds.

The Bottom Line:

Three coaches got fired this week—more will follow.

Athletic directors are making calls. Boosters are applying pressure. Coaches who thought they were safe realize they’re not.

Want the full picture?

Our newsletter subscribers get exclusive analysis of coaches ranked 11-25—the ones trending in the wrong direction but not quite in crisis mode yet.

Subscribe here to get all 136 FBS rankings every week.

Because pressure is a ranking—and everyone’s being measured.

Check out the complete 136 FBS Coaches Hot Seat Rankings.

BACK TO THE BLOG ARCHIVE

No related posts found.

VISIT OUR SHOP [COMING SOON]

LOAD MORE BLOG ARTICLES

Blog Article

Week 7 – Coaches Hot Seat Rankings

Mark Haines on October 6, 2025

We’re officially past the halfway point of the 2025 college football season, and the bodies are starting to pile up.

This is when the excuses run out. “We’re young” doesn’t work anymore. “We’re installing a new system” isn’t cutting it. “We just need more time” sounds like desperation. October is when college football separates the pretenders from the contenders—and more importantly, it’s when athletic directors start having quiet conversations with search firms about who might be available in December.

Some coaches entered the season on the hot seat and managed to cool things down. Others have made their situations exponentially worse. And a few—well, a few are coaching for their jobs every single Saturday, whether they want to admit it or not.

Here are the 10 coaches sitting on the hottest seats in college football right now, ranked from “you’re probably gone” to “start packing”:

1. Trent Dilfer, UAB (American)

Here’s the thing about Trent Dilfer: nobody cares that you won a Super Bowl twenty-something years ago when you’re 3-4 and sitting at the bottom of the American Athletic Conference. Dilfer came in talking a big game about “building champions” and “culture,” but UAB looks worse now than it did before he arrived. The Blazers were a scrappy, competitive program under Bill Clark. Now? They’re getting boat-raced by teams they used to beat. When you replace a beloved coach and immediately tank the program, the seat doesn’t just get hot—it becomes a five-alarm fire.

2. Billy Napier, Florida (SEC)

Billy Napier beat Texas, and some want to pretend like that changes everything. It doesn’t. Know what beating Texas gets you at Florida? Another week. Maybe two. One upset doesn’t erase two and a half years of organizational failure. Napier is still 15-18 overall. He’s still the coach who turned one of college football’s blue bloods into a mediocre SEC also-ran. The Gators are still paying him $7+ million to compete for bowl eligibility while Georgia and Alabama compete for national championships. That’s unacceptable. The Texas win was impressive—sure—but Florida fans have seen this movie before. A big win that makes everyone feel good, followed by three inexplicable losses that remind you why the seat was hot in the first place. Napier didn’t save his job. He just delayed the inevitable conversation about when, not if, Florida moves on.

3. Mike Norvell, Florida State (ACC)

Three wins over Florida, Kent State, and an FCS team have created an illusion of recovery. The national media moved on. The hot seat conversations shifted elsewhere. Mike Norvell seems to have escaped scrutiny.

But here’s what nobody’s talking about:

Florida State hasn’t won an ACC game since November 2023. That’s a 15-game conference losing streak spanning two full seasons. The Seminoles are 0-2 in ACC play right now. The streak is alive and getting longer.

Think about that timeline:

2023: 13-1, ACC Champions
2024: 2-10 overall, 1-7 in conference
2025: 3-2 overall, 0-2 in conference

This isn’t a one-year blip. This is a two-year organizational collapse at one of college football’s blue bloods. Norvell went from undefeated to unwatchable in less than 365 days, and the worst part? There’s no evidence that things are getting better. The wins are smoke and mirrors. The losses in conference play are the reality. And if FSU can’t figure out how to win an ACC game soon, Norvell won’t be around to see Year 4.

4. Jeff Choate, Nevada (Mountain West)

Jeff Choate is discovering that what works at Montana State may not necessarily translate to the FBS level. Nevada is 2-5, and worse, they’re not even competitive in games they should win. Choate’s “tough, physical football” approach sounds great in theory, but when you’re getting pushed around by mid-tier Mountain West teams, it’s clear something isn’t working. The Wolf Pack faithful are patient people, but patience runs out when you’re staring down a 3-9 or 4-8 season. Choate needs to show he can adapt—and fast—or he’ll be heading back to the FCS.

5. Joe Moorhead, Akron (MAC)

Joe Moorhead’s track record says he should be better than this. He’s coordinated elite offenses. He won at Fordham. But Mississippi State? Mississippi State fans still haven’t forgiven him for tanking their program. And now at Akron, he’s showing flashes of the same problem: his teams look good on paper but can’t finish. The Zips are 2-6, and here’s the frustrating part—they’re winning the stat sheet in games they lose. Yards? Check. First downs? Check. Time of possession? Check. But stats don’t win games. Scoring touchdowns and field goals wins games. And Akron can’t score when it matters. They move the ball between the 20s and then stall out in the red zone. That’s coaching. That’s execution. That’s on Moorhead. A couple of wins this season is technically an improvement over the dumpster fire Akron has been, but when you’re celebrating 2-6 as progress, your seat is scorching hot.

6. Butch Jones, Arkansas State (Sun Belt)

Butch Jones is proof that just because you failed upward once doesn’t mean you’ll get a second chance. Jones was a disaster at Tennessee, and now he’s a disaster at Arkansas State. The Red Wolves are underperforming in a Sun Belt Conference that’s supposed to be wide open, and Jones’s “championship culture” shtick is no longer resonating. Players aren’t buying in, fans aren’t showing up, and the program feels like it’s treading water. Arkansas State didn’t hire Butch Jones to be mediocre—they hired him because they thought he’d learned from his Tennessee mistakes. Turns out, he didn’t.

7. James Franklin, Penn State (Big Ten)

James Franklin just lost to UCLA. UCLA. A UCLA team so bad that they fired their offensive coordinator mid-season. A UCLA team that handed play-calling duties to Jerry Neuheisel—yes, Rick Neuheisel’s son—who proceeded to carve up Penn State’s defense like he was running the 2001 Miami Hurricanes offense. And Franklin? Franklin made zero adjustments. He stood on the sideline at the Rose Bowl, watching Jerry’s revamped offense shred his team while CBS cameras cut to Rick Neuheisel in the studio, celebrating his son’s victory. This wasn’t just a loss. This was the biggest upset of the season. This was a program-defining embarrassment. Penn State fans are done with “good enough.” They’re done with 10-win seasons that end with inexplicable losses to teams they should beat by 20. Franklin recruits at an elite level. He has NFL talent all over the roster. But when it matters—when his team needs him to make an adjustment, outsmart a first-time play-caller, show up in a big moment—he disappears. That’s why his seat is nuclear hot. Losing to UCLA in 2025 isn’t just bad; it’s unacceptable.

9. Derek Mason, Middle Tennessee (C-USA)

Derek Mason is a defensive coach in an era where offense wins championships, and it shows. Middle Tennessee is 2-6, and while the defense occasionally flashes, the offense is unwatchable. Mason’s problem is that he’s building a program like it’s 2005, not 2025. In today’s college football, you need to score 35+ points to win games, and the Blue Raiders can barely crack 20. Mason’s seat is hot because MTSU fans are asking a fair question: What exactly are we getting better at? If the answer is “nothing,” then it’s time to move on.

10. Scotty Walden, UTEP (C-USA)

Scotty Walden is the new kid on the block, and he’s already in trouble. UTEP hired him because of his success at Austin Peay, but the jump from FCS to FBS is massive—and Walden is drowning. The Miners are 1-7, and it’s not even close. They’re getting blown out on a weekly basis, and there’s no sign of improvement. The issue isn’t just that UTEP is losing—it’s that they look completely unprepared. Walden’s seat is hot because if you can’t show any progress in Year 1, people start wondering if you’re the right guy. And at UTEP, where expectations are low, that’s saying something.

Where does your coach stand? Check out the complete 136 FBS Coaches Hot Seat Rankings.

The Bottom Line:

These 10 coaches are in survival mode. Some will make it to bowl season. Some won’t make it to Thanksgiving. And a few might shock everyone and save their jobs with a November run that makes athletic directors rethink everything.

But here’s the reality: once you’re on a hot seat list, you’re never really off it. You’re just buying time until the next loss reignites the conversation.

Want to know who else we’re watching? Our newsletter subscribers get an exclusive breakdown of 4 under-the-radar coaches who aren’t on this list yet—but probably should be. These are the names nobody’s talking about right now, but will be by season’s end.

Subscribe here to get the full hot seat analysis delivered straight to your inbox every week.

Because in college football, the only thing hotter than the playoff race is the coaching carousel—and we’re tracking every name, every rumor, and every AD who’s about to make a very expensive decision.

BACK TO THE BLOG ARCHIVE

No related posts found.

VISIT OUR SHOP [COMING SOON]

LOAD MORE BLOG ARTICLES

Blog Article

Spotlight on the Top Five – Week 6 Coaches Hot Seat Rankings

Mark Haines on September 30, 2025

Most people have no idea how quickly things can unravel in college football.

One day, you’re the “savior” of a storied program. Next, you’re fielding questions about your buyout clause and watching fans organize billboards calling for your resignation. The difference between job security and unemployment in this business isn’t always talent or even wins—it’s momentum. And right now, these five coaches have none.

Billy Napier is watching Florida become irrelevant in the SEC. Trent Dilfer can’t win a single road game at UAB. Joe Moorhead’s Akron teams lose close games like it’s their full-time job. Butch Jones is in year five at Arkansas State and still can’t crack .500. Sonny Cumbie’s “offensive innovation” at Louisiana Tech has produced nothing but more losses.

The clock is ticking.

Here are the five coaches who better start winning—fast—or they’ll be updating their LinkedIn profiles before Thanksgiving.

1. Billy Napier — Florida (SEC)

Napier’s seat is the hottest in college football.

Florida has a losing overall record (20-22) and an abysmal mark against key rivals (3-11 vs. Miami, Georgia, Tennessee, FSU, LSU). Fan frustration is at an all-time high due to:

Underperforming teams year after year
Poor offensive play that fails to capitalize on elite recruiting
Frequent penalties that cost games
Repeated blown opportunities in winnable contests

Administrative support is eroding as the Gators appear to be treading water in a league that demands immediate improvement.

2. Trent Dilfer — UAB (American)

Dilfer is 7-17 at UAB, with no road wins.

The fanbase is turning on both his leadership and the athletic department for the controversial hire. Performance has declined since his arrival, and the program’s competitiveness has suffered a sharp decline. The buyout remains a hurdle, but a lack of progress or response has the pressure rising each week.

3. Joe Moorhead — Akron (MAC)

Moorhead’s Zips are just 8-28 over three years.

Akron is showing incremental stat gains but not translating that into wins. The key issues:

Frequent close losses
Faltering in one-score games
A lack of true program momentum

The expectation is wins now, not merely competitiveness.

Patience is nearly gone.

4. Butch Jones — Arkansas State (Sun Belt)

Now in his fifth year, Jones cannot get the Red Wolves out of the bottom of the Sun Belt.

With a cumulative record of 19-31, hopes of turning around the program have largely faded. The administration is expected to take action if meaningful improvement isn’t demonstrated—that means a winning season is likely a must.

5. Sonny Cumbie — Louisiana Tech (C-USA)

Cumbie owns a 13-27 mark and has failed to show substantial progress in Ruston.

Offensive innovation has not yielded meaningful results, and buyout considerations are now being outweighed by growing donor and fan restlessness.

The next losing streak or lack of tangible on-field progress could be his last.

The Bottom Line: Win Now, Or Pack Your Office

These five coaches have no excuses.

No more “building for the future.” No more “we’re close.” No more moral victories. College football is a results business, and right now, these programs are getting zero return on their investment. Billy Napier can’t beat Florida’s rivals. Trent Dilfer can’t win on the road. Joe Moorhead can’t close games. Butch Jones can’t break .500. And Sonny Cumbie’s offense isn’t innovating anything except new ways to lose.

Want the full story? This is just the tip of the iceberg.

Every Tuesday during football season, we rank all 136 FBS coaches—and newsletter subscribers get an exclusive, deeper dive into the top 10 (this week, we threw in a bonus #11). That means inside intel on buyout clauses, potential replacements, and which athletic directors are already making phone calls behind closed doors. Subscribe to stay ahead of the chaos before it hits ESPN.

Sign up here

BACK TO THE BLOG ARCHIVE

No related posts found.

VISIT OUR SHOP [COMING SOON]

LOAD MORE BLOG ARTICLES

Blog Article

Why College Football Coaching Has Become a Weekly Pressure Cooker

Mark Haines on September 9, 2025

Modern college football coaching means living under microscopic scrutiny where every decision gets analyzed and every loss creates crisis-level pressure.

Week 3 showcased how quickly hot-seat temperatures can spike when coaches face the unforgiving mathematics of fan expectations.

When Pressure Becomes Unbearable

Billy Napier’s situation at Florida illustrates how rapidly coaching pressure can escalate.

The offensive regression that created instant scrutiny:

Week 1: Florida scored 55 points vs LIU (looked unstoppable)
Week 2: Florida managed only 16 points and lost to South Florida at home
Post-game press conference felt like damage control
Reporters directly questioned whether he’s the right fit

That kind of performance swing doesn’t just lose games, it loses confidence from everyone watching.

The Heat Index Rising

Brent Pry discovered that some losses generate more pressure than others.

Virginia Tech’s 44-20 home loss to Vanderbilt created immediate comparisons to Charleston Southern’s 45-3 loss to the same team. When your ACC program’s defensive performance mirrors an FCS team’s effort, the pressure becomes suffocating.

The math doesn’t lie, and neither do angry fan forums.

Pressure Multipliers

Mike Gundy’s situation demonstrates how external factors amplify coaching pressure.

The timeline that turned trash talk into a nightmare:

December: Took a salary cut at Oklahoma State
September: Made comments about Oregon’s spending on the radio
Game day: Lost 69-3 after providing bulletin board material

Pre-game confidence turned into post-game humiliation, which went viral across every social media platform.

The New Normal

Today’s coaching environment creates pressure that previous generations never experienced.

The modern pressure ecosystem:

Social media amplifies every mistake instantly
Fan forums dissect every play call in real time
Athletic directors face constant donor pressure
One bad weekend transforms secure positions into hot seat situations

The microscope has never been more powerful, and the patience has never been thinner.

Want to see how all 136 FBS coaches rank under this new pressure?

Subscribe to my newsletter for detailed hot seat analysis that tracks which coaches are feeling the heat and why their situations are getting more intense each week.

[Subscribe here for complete rankings and weekly updates]

BACK TO THE BLOG ARCHIVE

No related posts found.

VISIT OUR SHOP [COMING SOON]

LOAD MORE BLOG ARTICLES

Blog Article

9 College Football Coaches Who Just Felt Their Seats Get 10 Degrees Hotter After Week 1 (And Why the Pressure Is Only Getting Started)

Mark Haines on September 2, 2025

College football’s coaching carousel spins fastest in September, when preseason optimism crashes into Week 1 reality and exposes the coaches who spent the offseason building excuses instead of building programs.

While ESPN debates which coaches are “on the bubble,” smart money watches the programs where fan forums have already turned toxic, ticket sales have quietly declined, and athletic directors start making those carefully worded statements about “evaluating all aspects of our program.” These aren’t the coaches having one bad game—these are the coaches whose foundational problems just got exposed under the bright lights, and no amount of spin can change what everyone saw on Saturday.

The hot seat isn’t about one loss; it’s about the pattern of problems that one loss reveals, and some coaches just proved they’re exactly who we thought they were.

#1: Sonnie Cumbie – Louisiana Tech

The Master of Bare Minimum Achievement

Sonny Cumbie has mastered the most dangerous skill in college football: being just competent enough to survive another week.

The brutal numbers tell his story:

7-17 overall record across two seasons at Louisiana Tech
Beat FCS Southeastern Louisiana 24-0 in Week 1—exactly what any Power 5 program should do
Perfected coaching limbo: too successful to fire immediately, too mediocre to ever feel safe
Louisiana Tech fans have completely given up hope, which ironically gives him more job security

Cumbie doesn’t hold the #1 hot seat because he’s the worst coach—he holds it because he’s trapped everyone in a cycle of lowered expectations.

#2: Scott Satterfield – Cincinnati

When 69 Yards Kills Your Season

Scott Satterfield’s season died in 60 minutes when his quarterback threw for 69 yards against Nebraska.

The math that doomed him:

Rushing attack proved talent exists (202 yards), but questionable coordinator decisions amplified QB disaster
Cincinnati fans still have expectations, unlike programs where hope has died
0.001 behind Cumbie in hot seat rating, but might have a higher actual firing probability
Disappointed expectations create way more pressure than met low expectations

One more Nebraska-level disaster, and that microscopic gap to #1 disappears entirely.

#3: Joe Moorhead – Akron

The Statistical Art of Organized Failure

After four years and 30 losses, Joe Moorhead has turned losing into a statistical art form—and his shutout loss to Wyoming proved that organized failure is still failure.

The Year 4 reality check:

Shutout 10-0 at home by Wyoming validated every pessimistic preseason prediction
Mastered showing statistical improvement while delivering results that prove the opposite
8-30 overall record with enough time to build something—and a shutout loss is what he built
Every metric looks better except the only one that matters: points scored

Statistical improvement without wins isn’t progress—it’s just organized failure with better spreadsheets.

#4: Trent Dilfer – UAB

The 52-Point Problem

Trent Dilfer needed 52 points to beat Alabama State, and somehow that victory made his hot seat even hotter.

When offense isn’t enough:

520 total yards, capable QB play, zero turnovers—the offense clearly works
Gave up 42 points to an FCS team that shouldn’t score 20 (defensive malpractice)
7-18 record in Year 3 means zero margin for error
Two seasons of roster overhauls haven’t fixed the fundamental problem

In college football, being able to coach only one side of the ball isn’t a recipe for job security—it’s a recipe for updating your resume.

#5: Brent Venables – Oklahoma

Following Legends at a Program That Demands Perfection

Brent Venables crushed Illinois State 35-3, and Oklahoma fans are still holding their breath because beating FCS teams is just Tuesday at Oklahoma.

The championship standard reality:

Following Bob Stoops and Lincoln Riley means even dominant wins feel like pop quizzes
QB John Mateer looked transformed (30/37, 392 yards, 3 TD), showing offensive promise
6-7 in 2024 was completely unacceptable to a fanbase that expects championships
Brutal SEC schedule ahead will determine if Year 3 is a breakthrough or a breakdown

Venables did what was required in Week 1, but at Oklahoma, coaches either become legends or become former coaches—there’s no middle ground.

Other Coaches We’re Watching After Week 1:

#7: Kalen Deboer – Alabama

The Fastest Hot Seat Elevation in History

Kalen DeBoer experienced the fastest hot seat elevation in college football history, jumping from #85 to #7 after one loss, proving that coaching at Alabama means living in a different reality.

The Saban shadow effect:

Lost 31-17 to unranked Florida State as #8-ranked team (institutional panic mode activated)
Offensive struggles (341 yards, only 17 points) plus defensive breakdowns in Year 2
Alabama doesn’t grade on curves—they grade on championships
Following Nick Saban means one bad game can define everything

DeBoer learned that at Alabama, losing to unranked teams isn’t championship behavior, and championship behavior is the only acceptable standard.

#15: DeShaun Foster – UCLA

When Paranoia Becomes Performance

Deshaun Foster spent eight months building walls around his UCLA program, then got embarrassed 43-10 at home by Utah, turning those walls into a spotlight on his failure.

The media strategy backfire:

Shut out media, tighter restrictions, eliminated distractions—the team looked completely unprepared anyway
Destroyed 43-10 at home (220 total yards vs Utah’s 492) in Year 2
Big Ten relevance demands visible improvement, not the same fundamental problems
Media restrictions only work if you deliver results—blowouts amplify the disaster

Foster played high-stakes poker with UCLA’s credibility and lost big, and now everyone’s watching him try to rescue himself from a disaster of his own making.

#17: Dave Aranda – Baylor

Getting Out-Coached by the More Desperate Guy

Dave Aranda’s 38-24 loss to Auburn wasn’t just disappointing—it was a masterclass in getting out-coached by a coach who was supposed to be in more trouble.

The preparation failure:

Allowed 307 rushing yards to a team that averaged 165.5/game
Managed only 64 rushing yards when Baylor averaged 178.8/game last season
Lost to Hugh Freeze (ranked #6 on hot seat)—more desperate coach out-prepared him
Year 3 expectations meant progress, not regression against the 5-7 Auburn team

When the coach ranked 28 spots higher on the hot seat makes you look unprepared on both sides of the ball, you didn’t just lose a game—you lost credibility.

#19: Spencer Danielson – Boise State

From Under the Radar to Immediate Crisis

Spencer Danielson was flying under the radar until #25 Boise State got blown out 34-7 by unranked South Florida, and suddenly everyone’s paying attention.

The complete statistical disaster:

378 total yards but only 7 points (comprehensive red zone failure)
3 turnovers, 27-point blowout, never competitive against G5 competition
Fan unrest at the end of 2024 now looks prophetic—they saw this coming
Moved from “under the radar” to “immediate crisis” in one game

This is precisely the pattern: fan concerns emerge first, Week 1 validates those warnings, and situations escalate quickly when ignored.

The Bottom Line

These coaches didn’t just have bad games—they revealed fundamental problems that one weekend of football exposed for everyone to see.

Some will survive September and buy themselves time to fix what’s broken. Others will discover that in college football, pattern recognition happens fast, and athletic directors are watching the same games as the fans who’ve already made up their minds.

The hot seat rankings that actually matter aren’t about who gets fired first—they’re about who proves they belong in the conversation for all the wrong reasons.

We Track Coaching Pressure So You See The Warning Signs First

You just read the kind of analysis that predicted coaching changes before they happened. While other publications wait for the obvious, we identify the warning signs early.

The Coaches Hot Seat newsletter delivers:

Weekly hot seat rankings with data-driven predictions
Inside analysis on coaching moves before they’re announced
The real financial stories behind hiring and firing decisions
Zero fluff, zero access journalism, zero protecting feelings

Because college football moves fast.

And the programs that survive are the ones that see what’s coming next—not the ones caught reacting to what already happened.

Click Here To Subscribe to Coaches Hot Seat Newsletter

Get the analysis that matters. Before it becomes obvious to everyone else.

BACK TO THE BLOG ARCHIVE

No related posts found.

VISIT OUR SHOP [COMING SOON]

LOAD MORE BLOG ARTICLES

Blog Article

Week 0 Coaches Hot Seat Rankings: We Analyzed Every College Football Coach’s Job Security. Here Are The 10 Most Endangered

Mark Haines on August 22, 2025

These are our preseason rankings.

The starting point for tracking coaching pressure all season long.

Every coach occupies their spot heading into Week 1. But here’s the thing—these rankings are dynamic. They move every single week based on wins, losses, and the political reality inside each program.

Someone in our Top 5 can win their way down the list. It’s equally possible for a coach ranked 100th out of 136 to find themselves in serious trouble by October.

The hot seat never stays still.

That’s why you need to check back every Tuesday during football season. We’ll show you who’s trending down (breathing easier) and who’s trending up (heading for trouble).

Because in college football, your job security changes faster than a fumble recovery.

Here are the coaches starting the season in the most danger:

1. Sonny Cumbie, Louisiana Tech

Why Sonny Cumbie Owns the Hottest Seat in College Football This Season

Louisiana Tech’s Sonny Cumbie enters Year Four with an 11-26 record and mounting pressure after three consecutive losing seasons.

His .297 winning percentage and 0.574 Hot Seat Rating signal he’s been underwater since Day One, far below the 1.0 threshold for meeting expectations.
The trajectory shows no recruiting momentum while fans still remember Skip Holtz’s consistent winning, making patience increasingly scarce.
Coaches in this position rarely recover—by Year Four, you either show tangible progress or the program shows you the door.

Unless Cumbie delivers a miracle turnaround in 2025, his seat isn’t just hot—it’s burning.

2. Scott Satterfield, Cincinnati

The Six-Win Ultimatum: Why Scott Satterfield’s Job—and Cincinnati’s Future—Hangs in the Balance In 2025

Scott Satterfield is out of time after two bruising, back-to-back losing seasons at Cincinnati, with everything on the line across twelve Saturdays.

He’s trailing the ghost of Luke Fickell’s 53-10 legacy and playoff success, while his own .333 win rate signals trouble for a fanbase starved for relevance.
Nine months removed from five straight losses and high-profile staff departures, every decision is under the microscope as he feels the pressure of his buyout clause.
Quarterback Brendan Sorsby must cut turnovers while the team needs six wins for bowl eligibility—anything less might mean packing bags.

For a proud program where mediocrity isn’t an option, “hot seat” might not be hot enough in 2025.

3. Joe Moorhead, Akron

Joe Moorhead’s Statistical Masterpiece of Losing

Joe Moorhead has cracked the code on making college football statistics look respectable while losing games at an alarming rate.

His Akron teams generate impressive numbers—like Ben Finley’s 378 yards and four touchdowns in an 11-point loss to Buffalo—but have dropped 10 one-score games in two years, including five by a field goal or less.
With a 0.659 Hot Seat Rating and an 8-28 record over three seasons, Moorhead’s offensive schemes produce yards and individual stats that suggest competence, yet his teams consistently fail when games hang in the balance.
The cruel mathematics reveal that when you have explosive receivers, a productive quarterback, and reliable kicking, but still struggle to win, the problem isn’t talent—it’s execution under pressure.

Moorhead was supposed to be the offensive mastermind who would solve Akron’s perpetual losing problem, but instead became the poster child for why coordinating success and leading it require entirely different skill sets.

4. Brent Venables, Oklahoma

Brent Venables Faces 8 Top 25 Teams In 2025. Here’s Why This Will Be His Last Season At Oklahoma

Most people think coaching success is about X’s and O’s, but Brent Venables learned the hard way that your past success means nothing when the game changes around you.

His first SEC season at Oklahoma produced a 6-7 record with just 24 points per game—the program’s lowest scoring output since the 1990s—proving that elite coordinator credentials don’t automatically translate to head coaching success in a new conference.
The SEC’s unforgiving arms race exposes recruiting misses and tactical weaknesses that Oklahoma could hide in the Big 12, with eight projected Top 25 opponents in 2025, including Michigan, LSU, Texas, Alabama, and Tennessee.
247Sports ranks Venables as college football’s most embattled coach entering 2025, with Vegas projecting a middle-tier SEC finish while fans demand results over explanations from their well-resourced program.

In Norman, nobody gets remembered for coming close—and anything less than a winning season could end his tenure.

5. Trent Dilfer, UAB

UAB Passed Over A 7-6 Interim Coach To Hire Trent Dilfer. 2 Years Later, Dilfer Is 7-17, And That Coach Beat Him 32-6.

UAB Athletic Director Mark Ingram chose the shiny object in 2022, hiring former NFL quarterback Trent Dilfer over interim coach Bryant Vincent despite Vincent’s 7-6 record.

Two years later, Dilfer sits at 7-17 with zero road wins while Vincent’s Louisiana Monroe team beat Dilfer’s UAB squad 32-6 this season, highlighting the missed opportunity.
Athletic directors consistently get starstruck by NFL pedigree, mistaking name recognition for competence and assuming Super Bowl rings translate to recruiting ability, ignoring that college coaching requires relationship-building with 18-year-olds, not managing millionaire adults.
Former NFL players often struggle because they’ve never learned to develop teenagers, recruit prospects, manage boosters, or navigate the transfer portal—skills that proven college coaches possess for a reason.

The next time an athletic director gets stars in their eyes over a former NFL player, remember that sometimes the best hire is the one standing right in front of you, even if they’re not the most exciting candidate.

6. Hugh Freeze, Auburn

Auburn’s Hugh Freeze Sits At #6 On Our Hot Seat Rankings. Here’s Why 2025 Will Either Save His Career Or End It.

Hugh Freeze has methodically eliminated every excuse a coach could have after two straight losing seasons at Auburn, leaving himself nowhere to hide in Year 3.

He landed Jackson Arnold, a former 5-star transfer quarterback from Oklahoma, while building back-to-back top-10 recruiting classes filled with blue-chip prospects and adding 19 strategic transfer portal additions.
Auburn avoids Texas this season and hosts both Alabama and Georgia at home, creating a more favorable schedule than recent years, while Freeze publicly admits “we’ve got to go to a bowl game.”
In 12 seasons as a head coach, Freeze has missed bowl eligibility exactly twice—his scandal-plagued final year at Ole Miss and his rebuilding year at Auburn—and lightning doesn’t strike three times for coaches who want to survive.

Hugh Freeze has built the perfect team to save his career, and now he has to prove he deserves it.

7. Brent Pry, Virginia Tech

Virginia Tech’s Brent Pry Fired 3 Coaches And Replaced 30 Players To Save His Job. Here’s Why These Desperate Moves Will Get Him Fired Instead

Most people think college football coaches get fired for losing games, but they actually get fired for making desperate moves that prove they never understood why they were losing in the first place.

After going 16-21 over three seasons, Virginia Tech’s Brent Pry fired his coordinators not strategically but politically, sending the message that “the problem wasn’t me—it was them” while proving he can’t take responsibility for his failures.
Pry lost his top running back (1,159 yards, 15 TDs) and best pass rusher (16 sacks) to the transfer portal, then added 30 strangers who’ve never played together, creating roster panic instead of building chemistry that takes years to develop.
He’s asking the impossible: 30 new players to trust each other, learn new systems from two new coordinators, and execute under pressure while their head coach’s job hangs in the balance—a recipe for chaos and meltdown.

Once you start making desperate moves, you’ve already lost because you’re no longer building a program—you’re just surviving until you get fired.

8. Tony Elliott, Virginia

Tony Elliott Has 8 Regular Season Games To Save His Virginia Coaching Career

Tony Elliott enters 2025 with 11 wins and 23 losses over three years at Virginia, but there’s only one number that matters now: 8.

Elliott finally has everything he said he needed—Chandler Morris from TCU (5,500+ career passing yards), Mitchell Melton from Ohio State, 7 home games, and no Clemson or Miami on the schedule—which means he’s completely out of excuses.
His track record suggests deeper problems with 4-8 records in one-score games, averaging 5+ penalties per game, and losing his starting quarterback to the transfer portal—patterns that go beyond bad luck.
The math is brutally simple: win 8 games and keep his job, win 7 or fewer and update his LinkedIn, with no middle ground or “moral victory” season that saves him after three years of disappointment.

Elliott finally has the perfect setup for success, and 2025 is his moment to prove he deserves it.

9. Sam Pittman, Arkansas

Sam Pittman Has A 30-31 Record At Arkansas. Here’s Why He’s The SEC’s Most Undervalued Coach

Sam Pittman enters 2025 with a 30-31 overall record and the narrative that another mediocre season means goodbye, but here’s what nobody talks about: he’s the SEC’s third-longest tenured coach with his current team.

Only Kirby Smart at Georgia and Mark Stoops at Kentucky have been around longer, proving that while other programs churn through coaches, Arkansas stuck with their guy through rebuilds, growing pains, and SEC brutality.
Pittman has built five years of recruiting relationships, institutional knowledge most coaches never get, a cultural foundation that takes time to develop, and three bowl wins that demonstrate his program’s progress.
With Taylen Green returning (3,756 total yards), Bobby Petrino in his second year calling plays, and a transfer portal haul ranked 8th nationally, the complete roster reconstruction offers a fresh start for his foundation to bear fruit.

The 2025 season will prove whether college football still rewards patience or if it only rewards wins—and whether the best hire is sometimes the guy who stays long enough to see his vision through.

10. Billy Napier, Florida

Florida’s Championship Window Opens in 2025

Most college football fans think Florida is still years away from competing for titles, but the Gators have quietly assembled all the pieces for a breakthrough season in 2025.

DJ Lagway isn’t just another promising quarterback—he’s a generational talent who went 6-1 in his starts as a true freshman, beating ranked LSU and Ole Miss while leading all SEC returners with a 52.8% completion rate on deep balls.
Florida’s top-10 recruiting class brings elite defensive backs and game-changing receivers, while four returning offensive line starters provide crucial stability and defensive coaching upgrades address last season’s major weaknesses.
After winning just 11 games in Napier’s first two seasons, the Gators closed 2024 with four straight wins and their first bowl victory since 2019, showing the culture has shifted when nobody was paying attention.

Championship windows don’t announce themselves with fanfare—they open quietly when talent meets opportunity, and Florida’s window is creaking open right now.

Don’t Miss A Single Coaching Move This Season

These rankings are just the beginning. Every Tuesday, we’ll update these hot seat rankings based on the weekend’s results, showing you exactly who’s trending up (heading for trouble) and who’s trending down (breathing easier). Because in college football, a coach can go from safe to fired in three weeks flat.

But here’s where it gets really interesting: our Friday newsletters dive deep into the stories behind the rankings. We’ll break down the political dynamics inside each program, analyze recruiting momentum, and give you the insider perspective on which coaches are actually fighting for their jobs versus which ones just look like they are.

Think of it as your weekly coaching intelligence report. While everyone else is guessing who might get fired, you’ll know exactly why it’s happening and when it’s coming.

Subscribe to our newsletter and get:

Tuesday Rankings: Updated hot seat positions for all 136 coaches
Friday Deep Dives: The real stories behind the coaching pressure
Insider analysis you won’t find anywhere else
First access to coaching movement predictions before they hit the mainstream

The hot seat never stays still, and neither should your information advantage.

Subscribe Now – It’s Free

Because when the coaching carousel starts spinning, you’ll want to be ahead of the story, not chasing it.

BACK TO THE BLOG ARCHIVE

No related posts found.

VISIT OUR SHOP [COMING SOON]

LOAD MORE BLOG ARTICLES

Blog Article

Sonny Cumbie’s 11-26 Record At Louisiana Tech Puts Him At #1 On Coaches Hot Seat Preseason Rankings—Here’s Why

Mark Haines on August 19, 2025

Everyone pretends to be shocked when a coach gets fired after 3 straight losing seasons.

As if the writing wasn’t on the wall the entire time. Louisiana Tech head coach Sonny Cumbie enters his fourth season in 2025 with our hot seat rating of 0.574 (where 1.0 represents meeting expectations and anything below signals mounting pressure) and a .297 winning percentage. Translation: he’s cooked. Done. Finished.

The only question isn’t whether he’ll get fired, but when.

This Was Always Going To Happen

Cumbie took over Louisiana Tech in December 2021 with one selling point: offensive innovation.

This was the guy who was once the highest-paid offensive coordinator in college football at TCU. The air raid genius. The quarterback whisperer. Fast forward to 2024, and he’s giving up play-calling duties four games into the season.

Think about that for a second.

You hire a chef because he makes the world’s best pasta, and then four months later he’s asking someone else to cook the pasta because he can’t figure out the recipe anymore. That’s Sonny Cumbie at Louisiana Tech.

His record speaks for itself:

2022: 3-9
2023: 3-9
2024: 5-8

Three straight losing seasons. The program hasn’t had a winning record since 2019, which means under both Skip Holtz’s final year (3-9) and Cumbie’s entire tenure, Louisiana Tech has been irrelevant.

But here’s where it gets fascinating.

The Defense Got Better, The Offense Got Worse

In 2024, something magical happened on defense.

Louisiana Tech went from allowing 39.2 points per game in 2022 and 33.4 in 2023 to just 21.0 points per game in 2024. They ranked top 3 in Conference USA and top 15 nationally in total defense. Know what Cumbie did? He fired defensive coordinator Scott Power and hired Jeremiah Johnson.

Smart move. Problem solved.

While the defense found its footing, the offense lost its way completely:

Yards per game dropped: 392 (2022) to 332.9 (2024)
Offensive line couldn’t protect anybody
Running game was nonexistent
Eventually had to give up play-calling

So he handed the play-calling over to someone else.

Here’s what’s wild about this situation.

Conference USA Should Be Easy Money

You know what Conference USA looks like after realignment?

A watered-down version of its former self. Programs left for better conferences. The competition got weaker. The path to success got clearer. And Louisiana Tech still couldn’t figure it out.

The disappointing numbers tell the story:

Conference record in 2024: 4-4
Road record under Cumbie: 2-17
Bowl appearances: 1 (only because Marshall opted out)

Four and four in conference play. In a league that should theoretically be easier to dominate than ever before. Two wins in 17 road games since taking over.

That’s not bad luck. That’s not external factors. That’s coaching.

Teams that can’t win on the road can’t win when things get uncomfortable. They fold under pressure. They make mistakes at critical moments.

They’re not mentally tough enough to handle adversity.

But There’s More At Stake Than Just Wins And Losses

Here’s where Athletic Director Ryan Ivey found himself in a tough spot.

Cumbie signed a five-year deal worth $4.85 million with a base salary that hit $1 million by 2024. Firing him means:

Paying a buyout
Paying to hire someone new
Paying that new coach a competitive salary

For a program like Louisiana Tech, that’s real money.

But here’s what administrators never want to acknowledge: keeping a losing coach costs more than firing him. Losing seasons mean fewer ticket sales. Fewer donations. Less corporate sponsorship. Lower TV revenue. Decreased enrollment interest.

The financial damage compounds every year you wait.

Louisiana Tech made one bowl game under Cumbie—the 2024 Independence Bowl—and they only got that because Marshall opted out due to transfer portal losses. They lost to Army 27-6. That’s not progress.

That’s charity.

The 2025 Reality Check

CBS Sports ranked Cumbie as the only coach in the “Win or be fired” category with a perfect 5.0 rating from nine expert evaluators.

Translation: everyone who covers college football knows what’s coming. The schedule gives him a chance—manageable Conference USA opponents—but also exposes him to road trips to LSU and Washington State. Given his 2-17 road record, those games look like guaranteed losses.

Even with some positive developments, the challenges are mounting:

Defensive improvement shows he can make changes
But the offensive line lost key players to the transfer portal
Tony Franklin hired as new offensive coordinator
Yet history suggests desperation hires rarely work

The offensive line lost Ja’Marion Kennedy to Wake Forest and Zarian McGill to Colorado, which means the unit that was already struggling just got worse.

Here’s the thing about desperation moves.

Why This Matters Beyond Louisiana Tech

College football is brutal.

Coaches get hired based on potential and fired based on results. There’s no participation trophy for “trying hard” or “building culture” when you’re 11-26 over three seasons. Cumbie’s situation represents everything problematic about how programs evaluate coaching hires.

They fell in love with his reputation instead of his results:

Assumed past success would automatically translate
Ignored warning signs about fit and system
Wanted to believe instead of evaluating reality

Louisiana Tech has proud football traditions. Conference championships. Bowl victories. Relevant seasons.

Under Cumbie, they’ve had none of that.

The Bottom Line

Sonny Cumbie is facing near-certain dismissal.

Whether it comes after early setbacks in 2025 or at the season’s end, the odds are stacked against him. The only question is how much damage Louisiana Tech is willing to accept while they delay what appears inevitable.

Because here’s what nobody wants to say out loud: keeping a struggling coach doesn’t protect the program’s future.

It jeopardizes it.

Our hot seat rating of 0.574 for Cumbie isn’t just a number. It’s a warning label. And everyone except the people making decisions seems to understand what it means.

Want to know which coach gets fired next?

You just read the kind of analysis that predicted coaching changes before they happened. While other publications wait for the obvious, we identify the warning signs early.

The Coaches Hot Seat newsletter delivers:

Weekly hot seat rankings with data-driven predictions
Inside analysis on coaching moves before they’re announced
The real financial stories behind hiring and firing decisions
Zero fluff, zero access journalism, zero protecting feelings

Because college football moves fast.

And the programs that survive are the ones that see what’s coming next—not the ones caught reacting to what already happened.

Click Here To Subscribe to Coaches Hot Seat Newsletter

Get the analysis that matters. Before it becomes obvious to everyone else.

BACK TO THE BLOG ARCHIVE

No related posts found.

VISIT OUR SHOP [COMING SOON]

LOAD MORE BLOG ARTICLES

Blog Article

Week 15 Coaches Hot Seat Rankings – Breaking Down the Top 5

Mark Haines on December 3, 2024

Welcome to our breakdown of the Top 5 ranked coaches on the Week 15 Coaches Hot Seat Rankings.

In the era of social media and team message boards, College football communities typically fall into three categories:

Picture the modern college football landscape as a digital Roman Colosseum, where three distinct tribes gather daily to pass judgment on their gladiators. I’ve spent months studying these tribes, fascinated by how their collective voice can determine the fate of multimillion-dollar coaching careers with the force of an emperor’s thumb.

First, you have the Sunshine Pumpers – college football’s eternal optimists, whose rose-tinted view of their program would make Pollyanna seem cynical. They’re the ones who’d watch their team’s practice facility burn to the ground and declare it a strategic move to improve ventilation. Their unwavering positivity isn’t just amusing; it’s a psychological defense mechanism worth millions to beleaguered athletic directors who need someone, anyone, to keep buying season tickets.

Then there are the Negative Nellies, the digital descendants of Ancient Greek tragedy choruses. These people have turned catastrophizing into an art form and see an upset loss to a rival as evidence of civilization’s collapse. They don’t just want their coach fired; they want him launched into the sun, preferably before halftime.

But the real power brokers? They’re the Middle Majority – college football’s silent jury. These are the clear-eyed realists who still remember that this is, ultimately, a game played by 20-year-olds. Lose their support, and a coach’s career expectancy drops faster than a team’s ranking after a loss to an FCS opponent.

As we examine this week’s coaching hot seat rankings, remember: these three tribes aren’t just posting on message boards – they’re reshaping the power dynamics of a $8 billion industry, one complaint thread at a time.

The Ryan Day situation at Ohio State exemplifies how these three tribes can reshape a program’s trajectory. With a staggering 86.8% winning percentage and a 64-3 record outside of Michigan games and playoff appearances, Day should be untouchable in the eyes of any rational observer. But that’s not how college football works in 2024, especially not in Columbus.

The Sunshine Pumpers point to the program’s continued playoff contention and recruiting dominance, including a roster powered by $20 million in NIL money. They’ll tell you that Day’s overall record (.868 winning percentage) would be celebrated at 95% of programs nationwide. And they’re not wrong.

The Negative Nellies, however, have found their ammunition: a 2-7 record in career-defining moments and four straight losses to Michigan, including an unthinkable defeat to an unranked Wolverines squad that had just lost their head coach to the NFL. The “Big Game Day” epithet has stuck, and the critics are getting louder.

But it’s the Middle Majority that makes this situation genuinely fascinating. They’re running the numbers: a $35 million buyout, a coach who consistently wins everything except the games that matter most and a recruiting machine that just watched Michigan flip five-star quarterback Bryce Underwood with a reported $10 million NIL deal. The silent jury is still deliberating, but their patience is wearing thin.

Athletic Director Ross Bjork’s carefully worded support – “Coach Day does a great job leading our program. He’s our coach” – reads less like a vote of confidence and more like a holding pattern until the playoff scenario plays out. The real question might not be whether Ohio State wants to keep Day but whether Day wants to stay in a pressure cooker where even a 66-10 record can’t guarantee job security.

Unlike the Ohio State scenario, Kent State’s situation with Kenni Burns has achieved something remarkable: it’s united all three tribes in bewilderment. When you’ve lost 21 straight games and your head coach is being sued for defaulting on a $24,000 credit card debt despite making nearly half a million dollars annually, even the Sunshine Pumpers run out of silver linings to grasp.

The raw numbers read like a satire of college football excess: a 1-33 overall record, a $1.51 million buyout, and a contract extension through 2028 that was inexplicably granted in February 2024 – the same period during which Burns was reportedly falling behind on his credit card payments. The Golden Flashes haven’t just lost games; they’ve been dismantled with surgical precision, outscored 486-160 overall and 282-99 in MAC play. The season’s nadir came early with a loss to St. Francis (PA), though the subsequent 71-0 demolition by Tennessee and 56-0 erasure by Penn State suggest “nadir” might be a moving target.

In any rational football universe, this would be where our three tribes engage in their usual warfare of interpretation. The Negative Nellies would demand immediate change, the Sunshine Pumpers would preach patience, and the Middle Majority would weigh the practical constraints against the competitive collapse. But when your head coach can’t manage his personal finances – defaulting on debt to a local bank that once sponsored the athletic program, no less – while earning $475,000 a year, it raises uncomfortable questions about institutional judgment.

Kent State has transcended such traditional dynamics. When your season ends with a 43-7 loss to Buffalo, extending the nation’s longest active losing streak to 21 games, while your head coach dodges court summons over unpaid credit card bills, you’ve achieved something rare in modern college football: unanimous consensus. The same industry that might force out Ryan Day and his 87% winning percentage at Ohio State has somehow found infinite patience for a program redefining competitive futility both on and off the field.

Perhaps that’s the most fascinating part of this story – how Kent State has inadvertently experimented with just how far institutional inertia can stretch. The answer is at least 21 games, one credit card default, and counting.

The UAB situation under Trent Dilfer exemplifies what happens when all three fan tribes suddenly realize they’ve been watching the same horror movie. Four seasons ago, UAB dominated Tulane with a bruising defense that held the Green Wave to 21 points. This year? Tulane hung 71 points on the Blazers in their stadium.

As Joseph Goodman of the Alabama Media Group devastatingly points out, UAB has completed a stunning transformation “from being a symbol of pride for the city of Birmingham to the worst team in college football.” Not the bottom 10. Not second-to-last. The worst. This is a program that, under Bill Clark, made five consecutive bowl games and engineered a move to the American Athletic Conference. Under Dilfer, they’re losing 32-6 to Louisiana-Monroe, a program he describes as “historically tragic.”

The Sunshine Pumpers, usually reliable defenders of any coach with an NFL pedigree, have gone quiet. The Negative Nellies are pointing to a season-ending loss to Charlotte where the Blazers missed not one but two chip-shot field goals. And the Middle Majority? They’re doing the math on how a program goes from nine wins and a bowl victory over BYU in 2021 to this level of competitive collapse.

Yet in a twist that would bewilder even the most optimistic fans, UAB appears ready to run it back with Dilfer in 2024. The sacrifice of assistant coaches is enough to appease the football gods, even as the program that Bill Clark rebuilt piece by piece crumbles into competitive irrelevance.

The most telling sign of the program’s descent is when a senior quarterback abandons the team mid-season to preserve his eligibility. This suggests that the quarterback whisperer might have lost his voice.

You know something has gone wrong when your fanbase goes from celebrating a splash hire to demanding his head in just two years. Luke Fickell’s descent at Wisconsin is a cautionary tale about the dangers of heightened expectations, with his .760 winning percentage at Cincinnati deteriorating to .500 in Madison.

The Sunshine Pumpers still point to his overall .667 career winning percentage and Cincinnati success, including that magical College Football Playoff run. They’ll tell you that losing starting quarterback Tyler Van Dyke to a torn ACL derailed what could have been a breakthrough season. And didn’t Fickell already show accountability by firing offensive coordinator Phil Longo?

However, the Negative Nellies have the receipts: five consecutive losses to the end of 2024, the first such streak since 1991. It was a humiliating 24-7 home loss to Minnesota that snapped a 22-year bowl streak and an offense that managed just 44 total yards in the first half of their season finale, with bowl eligibility on the line. The boos raining down at Camp Randall tell their own story.

The Middle Majority finds itself in an uncomfortable position. This is the same Luke Fickell who Ohio State passed over for Ryan Day – and now both men find themselves scrutinized for failing to meet their program’s standards, albeit at very different levels. The irony isn’t lost on anyone that while Ohio State contemplates moving on from Day’s 87% win rate, Wisconsin seems prepared to give Fickell another chance to prove he hasn’t lost his Cincinnati magic.

The most damning indictment? When athletic director Chris McIntosh’s recent raise and extension become part of the conversation about your job security, you know the pressure is mounting.

At Auburn, the three tribes of college football fandom find themselves engaged in a uniquely expensive form of warfare. Since 2000, the program has spent $68 million not on building success but on buying out failure – a figure transforming Auburn football from a sports program into a case study of institutional self-sabotage.

The Sunshine Pumpers are clinging to Auburn’s 2025 recruiting class, currently ranked fifth nationally, like a life raft in a storm of mediocrity. They’ll tell you that Freeze needs time, that his 444.5 yards per game show the offense is close to clicking, and that better days are just around the corner. Remember that Texas A&M signed a top-20 class a month after firing their coach last year.

The Negative Nellies point to numbers that are harder to spin: 11-14 overall, 5-11 in the SEC, and now 0-2 in the Iron Bowl. As Paul Finebaum put it, after the latest loss to Alabama, people “really have to wonder about this program’s future.” When you’re generating 444.5 yards per game but still can’t score, you’re not just failing – you’re finding innovative new ways to disappoint.

But it’s the Middle Majority that genuinely appreciates the dark comedy here. Auburn has fired a coach two years after winning a national title (Gene Chizik), dismissed another despite his mystifying ability to beat Alabama in odd-numbered years (Gus Malzahn), and scrapped Bryan Harsin for the crime of not being from around here. Now they’ve got Freeze, whose $20.3 million buyout can be paid monthly through 2028 – less like a coaching contract and more like a mortgage on mediocrity.

The most revealing detail is that Auburn structured Freeze’s buyout not as a deterrent to firing him but as a more convenient payment plan. This behavior reflects an institution that knows itself too well—like someone who builds the divorce settlement into their wedding vows.

Thoughts? We’re ready to hear from you. Click right here

BACK TO THE BLOG ARCHIVE

No related posts found.

VISIT OUR SHOP [COMING SOON]

LOAD MORE BLOG ARTICLES