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Offense vs. Defense: Georgia and Texas Face Off in the SEC Conference Championship Game

Mark Haines on December 6, 2024

Tomorrow night at Mercedes-Benz Stadium, two college football titans collide in the SEC Conference Championship game. It’s a showdown that transcends the scoreboard; Georgia, the reigning powerhouse with its electrifying offense led by Carson Beck, takes on a Texas team rewriting the rules of modern football with a defense that has defied all expectations. In an age dominated by high-flying offenses, the Longhorns have forged a defensive identity that could prove revolutionary. As these contrasting approaches meet, the question looms: Can a defensive renaissance overcome the offensive evolution that has defined this era of the sport?

The Evolution Game: How Texas Built a Defense for Modern Football

The numbers tell a story, but not the one you’d expect. In the gleaming, antiseptic confines of Mercedes-Benz Stadium, two football programs will meet tomorrow night, each representing a different answer to the same question: How do you win in an era when offense has seemingly broken the sport?

Let’s Break It Down:

Overall Records and Rankings

  • Texas: 11-1 record, ranked #2
  • Georgia: 10-2 record, ranked #5

Texas has a slight edge in overall record and ranking heading into the championship game.

Offensive Performance

Passing Game

  • Texas: 274.6 yards per game, 33 touchdowns, 9 interceptions
  • Georgia: 297.0 yards per game, 28 touchdowns, 12 interceptions

Georgia has a slight advantage in passing yards, but Texas has been more efficient with more touchdowns and fewer interceptions.

Rushing Game

  • Texas: 175.5 yards per game, 21 touchdowns
  • Georgia: 128.3 yards per game, 22 touchdowns

Though touchdown production is similar, Texas has a significant edge in rushing yards.

Total Offense

  • Texas: 450.1 yards per game
  • Georgia: 425.3 yards per game

Texas holds a slight advantage in total offensive production.

Defensive Performance

Against the Pass

  • Texas: 143.7 yards allowed per game, 3 touchdowns allowed
  • Georgia: 196.3 yards allowed per game, 12 touchdowns allowed

Texas has been significantly stronger against the pass.

Against the Run

  • Texas: 103.5 yards allowed per game, 9 touchdowns allowed
  • Georgia: 135.8 yards allowed per game, 14 touchdowns allowed

Texas again shows superiority in run defense.

Total Defense

  • Texas: 247.2 yards allowed per game
  • Georgia: 332.1 yards allowed per game

Texas has a clear advantage in overall defensive performance.

Key Players

Texas

  • QB Quinn Ewers: 2307 yards, 24 TDs, 7 INTs
  • RB Tre Wisner: 812 rushing yards, 3 TDs
  • WR Matthew Golden: 576 receiving yards, 8 TDs

Georgia

  • QB Carson Beck: 3429 yards, 28 TDs, 12 INTs
  • RB Trevor Etienne: 477 rushing yards, 7 TDs
  • WR Arian Smith: 709 receiving yards, 4 TDs

Strength of Schedule

  • Texas SOS: 4.51 (29th)
  • Georgia SOS: 5.79 (15th)

Both teams have faced tough SEC competition. Notable results:

  • Texas defeated Oklahoma 34-3 and lost to Georgia 30-15 earlier in the season
  • Georgia lost to Alabama 41-34 and Ole Miss 28-10, but defeated Texas 30-15

What do all of these stats tell us about the game?

Georgia’s answer has been more offense. Their quarterback, Carson Beck, has thrown for 3,429 yards in a season that would have seemed impossible just a decade ago. The Bulldogs have embraced the modern game’s aerial evolution, turning their once-conservative offense into a high-flying circus that treats the forward pass not as a risk but as their primary currency of war.

But Texas presents the more fascinating case study. In an age when defensive coordinators have become the game’s equivalent of medieval archers—hopelessly firing arrows at increasingly sophisticated war machines—the Longhorns have done something remarkable: They’ve built a defense that works.

The numbers are staggering in their improbability: Three passing touchdowns allowed, all season. In the modern SEC, this is like finding a hedge fund that shorted the housing market in 2007. It simply shouldn’t be possible.

“Everyone thought defense was dead,” a Power Five defensive coordinator said anonymously. “What Texas has done… it’s like they’ve found a market inefficiency in football.”

That inefficiency manifests in the most basic statistical comparison: Texas allows 247.2 yards per game. Georgia, with all its championship pedigree and five-star recruits, gives up 332.1. The gap between them – roughly 85 yards – is the difference between a good defense and one rewriting our understanding of what’s possible in modern college football.

Quinn Ewers, Texas’s quarterback, puts up numbers that would have made him a Heisman frontrunner in 2013. In 2024, they almost feel quaint: 2,307 yards, 24 touchdowns. A decade ago, this would have been the story. Now, it’s almost an afterthought to what Texas has built on the other side of the ball.

The irony isn’t lost on anyone following college football’s evolution. Texas, the program that once gave us Vince Young and helped usher in the era of the dual-threat quarterback, has become the last best hope for defensive football. They’ve taken the principles that once made the SEC the nation’s preeminent conference—suffocating defense, controlled offense, and field position—and modernized them for an age when most programs have abandoned them entirely.

Georgia beat this Texas team earlier this year, 30-15. But that game feels like it was played in a different season, maybe even a different era. Since then, Georgia has shown cracks in its armor – losses to Alabama and Ole Miss that suggested maybe, just maybe, the offensive revolution has its limits.

Tomorrow night’s game isn’t just about a championship. It’s about two competing theories of football evolution. Georgia represents the conventional wisdom: that offense is king, that the forward pass has fundamentally altered the sport’s DNA, and that the only way to win is to score more than your opponent can manage.

Texas represents something else: the idea that maybe defense isn’t dead, that with the right combination of scheme, talent, and organizational philosophy, you can still win the way teams used to win, and that innovation in football doesn’t always mean more points, yards, or everything.

The safe bet is on Georgia. Experience matters in games like this. Championship DNA is real. The ability to perform under pressure isn’t just a cliché – it’s a measurable advantage in high-stakes situations.

But there’s something about this Texas team that feels like it’s tapping into something more fundamental about football. They’ve found a way to make defense work in an era when defense isn’t supposed to work.

Tomorrow night, we’ll find out if that’s enough.

Game Prediction Based on The Noise Trade

In high-frequency trading, there’s a phenomenon known as “noise.” It happens when emotional reactions and human behavior temporarily distort the underlying mathematics of the market. Smart traders don’t fight noise—they account for it in their models.

Tomorrow night in Atlanta, we will witness a real-world experiment in football’s version of noise trading. The mathematics remain pristine: Texas’s defense has discovered something fundamental about modern football, reducing opposing offenses to a series of low-probability bets, like a card counter who has figured out how to limit the house edge. The numbers – 247.2 yards allowed per game, three passing touchdowns all season – aren’t just statistics. They’re proof of concept.

But Mercedes-Benz Stadium won’t be a sterile laboratory. Texas’s returned ticket allotment means the building will be packed with Georgia fans, 71,000 traders all betting emotionally on the home team. In financial terms, this is the quintessential “noise trade” – a factor that shouldn’t matter to the underlying mathematics but matters to how those mathematics play out in the real world.

Here’s what makes this fascinating: Texas’s defensive innovation isn’t like the complex derivatives that collapsed under pressure in 2008. It’s more like the simplicity of card counting – a fundamental mathematical advantage that works regardless of the casino’s ambient noise. Their defenders don’t need elaborate verbal communications to maintain perfect leverage, just like a card counter doesn’t need quiet to keep their count.

Quinn Ewers will face the noise directly. His 2,307 passing yards and 24 touchdowns were accumulated in environments where his offensive system could operate at peak efficiency. Tomorrow night, he’ll be trading in a hostile market. But Texas’s offense, like their defense, is built on fundamentals rather than complexity. They don’t try to arbitrage small advantages through elaborate pre-snap adjustments. They take what the market gives them and execute with precision.

Carson Beck and his 3,429 passing yards represent the conventional wisdom of modern football – that offense always wins and that you can score your way out of any problem. He’ll have the crowd behind him, but he’ll still face the same mathematical problem that has stumped every other quarterback: how do you generate explosive plays against a defense that has systematically removed them from the equation?

The smart money says the noise traders—Georgia’s crowd—will impact the market enough to matter. And they will. Texas’s offensive efficiency will drop, and its defensive communication will face challenges it hasn’t seen all season. The math says Texas should win by two touchdowns, but the noise suggests something closer.

Final Score: Texas 27, Georgia 23

But watch what happens in the fourth quarter. Suppose Texas’s defensive innovation is as fundamental as the numbers suggest. In that case, we’ll see something remarkable: a system so mathematically sound that it works even when the market is most irrational. That’s not just a championship victory – it’s proof that someone has solved a problem everyone else thought was unsolvable.

The noise traders will go home disappointed. And by next season, every program in America will be trying to reverse engineer what Texas has built, just like every casino eventually had to change its rules once enough people learned to count cards. Innovation, in football as in markets, has a way of becoming conventional wisdom – right up until the next revolution begins.

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Big Ten Conference Championship Preview: Oregon vs Penn State

Mark Haines on December 5, 2024

We’ve broken down both teams – Oregon vs Penn State for the Big Ten Conference Championship Game. We’re calling this game:

The Perfect Season Meets the Perfect Defense: A Tale of Two Programs

In the high-stakes world of college football, where billions of dollars flow through palatial training facilities and coaches’ contracts read like small-nation GDPs, two programs have found remarkably different paths to the same destination. The Oregon Ducks, with their Silicon Valley-meets-Saturday-afternoon approach to offense, carry the weight of an unblemished 12-0 record. Their opponents, the Penn State Nittany Lions, have turned defensive football into a kind of performance art, yielding yards with all the generosity of a loan shark.

The numbers tell a story that Vegas oddsmakers have been struggling to decode. Oregon’s offense, orchestrated by the Oklahoma transfer Dillon Gabriel (who has thrown for 3,275 yards with the precision of a surgeon), generates 448.5 yards per game – exactly 5.7 yards more than Penn State. In the multi-billion dollar business of college football, that’s the equivalent of finding a penny in your couch cushions.

But here’s where it gets interesting. Let’s break it down:

Team Comparison: Penn State vs Oregon (2024 Season)

Overall Performance

Oregon has had a perfect season so far, boasting a 12-0 record, while Penn State has had an impressive 11-1 record. Both teams have shown strong performances throughout the season, earning their spots in the Big Ten Championship game.

Offensive Comparison

  1. Passing Game:
    • Oregon: 277.6 yards per game, 24 touchdowns, 6 interceptions
    • Penn State: 248.2 yards per game, 24 touchdowns, 6 interceptions

Oregon has a slight edge in passing yards, but both teams have identical touchdown and interception numbers.

  1. Rushing Game:
    • Oregon: 170.9 yards per game, 27 touchdowns
    • Penn State: 194.7 yards per game, 26 touchdowns

Penn State has a more productive rushing attack, averaging about 24 more yards per game than Oregon.

  1. Total Offense:
    • Oregon: 448.5 yards per game
    • Penn State: 442.8 yards per game

Both teams have very similar total offensive production, with Oregon slightly ahead.

Defensive Comparison

  1. Passing Defense:
    • Oregon: 171.5 yards allowed per game, 10 interceptions
    • Penn State: 169.8 yards allowed per game, 12 interceptions

Penn State has a marginally better pass defense and has forced more interceptions.

  1. Rushing Defense:
    • Oregon: 112.3 yards allowed per game
    • Penn State: 97.0 yards allowed per game

Penn State’s rush defense is significantly stronger, allowing about 15 fewer yards per game.

  1. Total Defense:
    • Oregon: 283.8 yards allowed per game
    • Penn State: 266.8 yards allowed per game

Penn State’s overall defense is more effective, allowing 17 fewer total yards per game.

Key Players

Oregon:

  • QB Dillon Gabriel: 3275 passing yards, 24 TDs, 6 INTs
  • RB Jordan James: 1166 rushing yards, 13 TDs
  • WR Tez Johnson: 685 receiving yards, 9 TDs

Penn State:

  • QB Drew Allar: 2668 passing yards, 18 TDs, 5 INTs
  • RB Nicholas Singleton: 733 rushing yards, 7 TDs
  • TE Tyler Warren: 978 receiving yards, 6 TDs

Special Teams

Both teams have solid kicking games, with Oregon slightly more accurate on field goals (78.9% vs 72.2% for Penn State).

Analysis

Penn State’s defensive coordinator has built something akin to a maximum-security prison for opposing offenses. They allow just 97 yards rushing per game – the number that makes old-school Big Ten coaches misty-eyed. It’s as if they’ve solved a mathematical equation that’s puzzled defensive minds for generations: how to stop the run and the pass without sacrificing.

The Nittany Lions’ Drew Allar, with his 2,668 passing yards, isn’t going to win any statistical beauty contests against Gabriel. However, in Tyler Warren, his tight end with 978 receiving yards, he’s found something even more valuable in modern football: reliability. Warren has become to Penn State what a good hedge fund is to a nervous investor – a safe harbor in turbulent times.

Oregon’s Jordan James, meanwhile, has turned running the football into a kind of performance art, accumulating 1,166 yards with the kind of efficiency that would make a German engineer proud. Every time he touches the ball, the advanced analytics computers at Oregon (and there are many) calculate a thousand possible outcomes. Most of them end with James in the end zone.

The kicking game is like comparing two slightly different shades of beige. Oregon converts 78.9% of its field goals, and Penn State 72.2%. Those percentage points might as well be gold dust in a game this evenly matched.

What we have here is more than a football game. It’s a clash of philosophical approaches to the same problem: how to move an oddly shaped ball across 100 yards of artificial turf. Oregon has perfected the art of offensive efficiency, turning each drive into a masterclass in modern football theory. Penn State has instead chosen to perfect the art of denial, turning its defense into a kind of mathematical proof that yards can be subtracted.

The result should be something akin to watching quantum physics play out on a football field – a perfect offense meeting an immovable defense with millions of dollars and countless dreams hanging in the balance.

Ultimately, this game will likely be decided not by the statistical margins that separate these teams – margins so thin you could slide them under a door – but by something far more primitive: which team can impose their will on the other. It’s the kind of story that makes college football the multi-billion-dollar theatre it is.

The Mathematics of Momentum: Game Prediction

If you spend enough time around Las Vegas bookmakers – those modern-day oracles who’ve turned point spreads into a science more precise than meteorology – you’ll learn that football games are just elaborate probability problems dressed up in school colors and fight songs. The Oregon-Penn State matchup presents the mathematical puzzle that keeps professional gamblers up at night.

Let’s break this down the way a Wall Street quant might approach their morning trading strategy:

Oregon’s offense, averaging 35.2 points per game, operates with the statistical consistency that would make a Six Sigma black belt weep with joy. The number feels almost artificially precise like it was generated by the same algorithms that power high-frequency trading.

Penn State’s defense, meanwhile, has turned opposing offenses into case studies in futility, holding teams to yardage totals that look more like batting averages. Their 266.8 yards allowed per game is the number that defensive coordinators frame and hang on their office walls.

But here’s where it gets interesting: Oregon’s Dillon Gabriel has been trading at a premium in the college football talent market. His 3,275 passing yards represent a 22.7% premium over Penn State’s Drew Allar – the kind of spread that would trigger arbitrage opportunities in any other market.

The turnover margins (+0.4 vs +0.6) are so close they’re practically a rounding error in the grand scheme. It’s like comparing the performance of two index funds that track slightly different versions of the same market.

When you feed all these numbers into the kind of predictive models that football analytics departments spend millions developing, you get something that looks less like a definitive answer and more like a probability distribution. But if you push me to put a number on it – the way a hedge fund manager eventually has to decide whether to buy or sell – I’ll say this:

Penn State 31, Oregon 24.

Red Zone – key to the game From B10 & Beyond @B10Beyond on X

“Found the Oregon weakness. Been rummaging through stats last couple of days when I can. Penn State is ranked 20th in Red Zone Defense. Fair. Oregon is ranked 73rd in Red Zone Defense. Not very good. If you can get down there, there’s a REALLY good chance you are scoring.“

It’s the kind of prediction that makes you understand why gambling is a multi-billion-dollar industry. Because in the end, we’re all just trying to put numbers on the unknowable, to quantify the human element that makes sports so captivating in the first place.

Make sure to catch the complete breakdown of all Conference Championship Games on the Targeting Winners podcast dropping Friday Afternoon on Spotify, Apple, or wherever you get your podcasts.

Got any thoughts on this game or preview? Let us know here.

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The Numbers That Don’t Add Up – Mountain West Championship Preview

Mark Haines on December 4, 2024

Boise State and UNLV meet Friday night for the Mountain West Championship.

In the pristine December air of Las Vegas, two college football programs are about to collide in a way that defies conventional wisdom. One is Boise State, the upstart powerhouse that has been terrorizing the Mountain West Conference for years by systematically destroying opponents. The other is UNLV, a program that was a statistical asterisk just two years ago. It is the kind of team that makes gamblers rich by betting against them.

The transformation of UNLV under Barry Odom is the kind of story that makes sports executives nervous. It suggests that all their complex formulas for success – the million-dollar facilities, the decades of tradition, the elaborate recruiting networks – might matter less than finding the right person with the right idea at the right time. Odom, a defensive specialist with a track record of raising football programs from the dead, has turned UNLV into something that would have been unthinkable 24 months ago: a legitimate threat to Boise State’s dominance.

The numbers tell a story that feels almost too neat to be true. Boise State, led by their own coaching prodigy Spencer Danielson, has been a machine of efficiency: 478.3 yards per game, 40.6 points scored, and a running back named Ashton Jeanty who seems to have been engineered in a laboratory specifically to break tackles (2,288 rushing yards, 28 touchdowns, and the kind of statistics that make NFL scouts reach for their phones). Their quarterback, Maddux Madsen, plays with the kind of careful precision (21 touchdowns, 3 interceptions) that makes offensive coordinators sleep well at night.

But here’s where it gets interesting: UNLV, the traditional underdog, has built something suspiciously similar. Their offense, anchored by the dual-threat quarterback Hajj-Malik Williams, puts up 434 yards and 38.7 points per game. It’s less than Boise State, but not by the margin you’d expect from a program that was recently college football’s equivalent of a penny stock.

Allegiant Stadium, site of the Mountain West Championship game

The real story, though, lies in a number that doesn’t show up in the standard statistics: 22 versus 14. That’s the turnover differential between these teams, with UNLV’s defense showing a predatory instinct for creating chaos that their more established opponents haven’t matched. It’s the kind of number that makes you wonder if there’s something more interesting happening here than just a good football team playing another good football team.

When these teams met earlier this season, Boise State won 29-24, the close score that tells you everything and nothing about what might happen in a rematch. It’s the type of game that Las Vegas oddsmakers hate – when the traditional metrics suggest one outcome, but the intangibles point to another.

The wild card in this is special teams, UNLV’s secret weapon. Their kicker, Caden Chittenden, has been converting field goals at an 80.6% clip, the kind of reliability that wins championships. And then there’s Jai’Den Thomas, who has turned kick returns into a form of performance art, including one touchdown that made highlight reels across the country.

As the sun sets over Las Vegas on December 6th, these two teams will take the field for a game that feels less like a conference championship and more like a referendum on how football programs are built. On one side, you have Boise State, with its decade of dominance and its assembly-line production of victories. On the other side is UNLV, the rapid risers who have turned chaos into a competitive advantage.

The beauty of this matchup lies in its unpredictability. It’s the kind of game that makes you question everything you think you know about college football – about tradition, momentum, and the way success is supposed to look. And maybe that’s exactly what makes it worth watching.

Let’s Break It Down – Season Overview

Boise State has had a remarkable season, losing only to Oregon in a close 37-34 contest early in the year. The Broncos have since reeled off 10 straight victories, including a 29-24 win over UNLV in their regular-season meeting. UNLV, under second-year head coach Barry Odom, has engineered a dramatic turnaround, with their only losses coming against Syracuse and Boise State.

Offensive Firepower

Both teams bring potent offenses to the championship game:

Boise State

  • Averaging 478.3 yards and 40.6 points per game
  • Balanced attack with 224.8 passing yards and 253.5 rushing yards per game
  • QB Maddux Madsen: 2556 passing yards, 21 TDs, 3 INTs
  • RB Ashton Jeanty: 2288 rushing yards, 28 TDs, 102 receiving yards, 1 receiving TD

UNLV

  • Averaging 434 yards and 38.7 points per game
  • Run-heavy offense with 254.1 rushing yards per game
  • QB Hajj-Malik Williams: 1735 passing yards, 17 TDs, 4 INTs, 768 rushing yards, 9 rushing TDs
  • RB Jai’Den Thomas: 832 rushing yards, 7 TDs, 85 receiving yards, 1 receiving TD

Defensive Battle

While both teams are known for their offensive prowess, their defenses have also played crucial roles in their success:

  • Boise State allows 364.8 total yards per game
  • UNLV gives up 349.3 total yards per game
  • The Rebels have been more opportunistic, forcing 22 turnovers compared to the Broncos’ 14

Special Teams Edge

UNLV holds a slight advantage in special teams:

  • Kicker Caden Chittenden: 25/31 FGs (80.6%), 51/52 PATs (98.1%)
  • Punt returner Jacob De Jesus: 20 returns, 163 yards, 8.2 avg
  • Kick returner Jai’Den Thomas: 3 returns, 124 yards, 1 TD

Coaching Matchup

This game features an intriguing coaching battle between Boise State’s Spencer Danielson and UNLV’s Barry Odom:

  • Danielson (2nd year): 14-2 overall record, faith-based approach, emphasizes player development
  • Odom (2nd year at UNLV): 19-7 record at UNLV, defensive expertise, known for quick program turnarounds

Key Factors

  1. Boise State’s rushing attack vs. UNLV’s run defense
  2. UNLV’s ability to force turnovers against a typically careful Boise State offense
  3. Special teams play, particularly in the return game
  4. Quarterback play under pressure in a high-stakes environment

Prediction – The Math of Inevitability

Suppose you were building a model to predict this game’s outcome. In that case, you’d probably focus on the obvious: Boise State’s superior yardage, their higher scoring average, and their previous victory over UNLV. You’d be doing exactly what most analysts do – and missing the point entirely.

The hidden pattern here lies in the convergence of three numbers that nobody’s talking about: UNLV’s +8 turnover margin advantage, their 80.6% field goal conversion rate, and the 5-point margin of their previous loss to Boise State. When you map these data points against similar conference championship games over the past decade, an interesting pattern emerges – teams with superior turnover margins and reliable kicking games tend to outperform their regular season results in championship settings.

The Las Vegas factor is another variable that spreadsheets can’t capture. UNLV isn’t just playing at home; they’re playing in a city that’s redefined itself more times than any other in America. Vegas’s team should do the same.

The smart money says Boise State by a touchdown. The numbers that don’t make the headlines suggest something else: UNLV 31, Boise State 27.

It’s the kind of prediction that makes traditional analysts uncomfortable – which is precisely why it might be right.

What’s your take on this game? Let us know here

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Targeting Winners: College Football’s Day of Reckoning

Mark Haines on November 29, 2024

When History Comes Due: College Football’s Day of Reckoning

On the final Saturday of November 2024, college football will remind us why it remains America’s most compelling social experiment. In four different stadiums, eight teams will engage in a ritual that’s equal parts sporting event and psychological warfare. These aren’t just games—they’re settling accounts, tests of collective will, and exercises in mass delusion, where entire states convince themselves that the impossible is probable.

In South Carolina, two programs that share nothing but geography and mutual contempt will try to prove that statistics are just numbers on a page. In Columbus, Ohio State faces the cruel irony of finally getting a vulnerable Michigan team after three years of losses, only to discover that beating a wounded rival might be the most challenging task. In Los Angeles, USC will attempt to salvage a disappointing season by derailing Notre Dame’s playoff dreams, proving once again that nothing satisfies quite like ruining someone else’s perfect ending. And in Eugene, Oregon stands ready to exorcise three years of frustration against a Washington program that’s fallen from national championship contender to cautionary tale in less time than it takes to earn a college degree.

Each of these games carries its own particular strain of madness. Together, they form a perfect case study in how rational human beings – coaches, players, and millions of fans – can convince themselves that history, statistics, and probability are merely suggestions rather than laws. In short, it’s everything that makes college football the most irrational, and therefore most human, of our sports.

The Numbers That Lie: A Tale of Two Programs – South Carolina at Clemson

In the gathering dusk of late November, two football programs circle each other like prizefighters, each convinced they’ve decoded the other’s fatal flaw. The statistics tell one story: Clemson, the higher-ranked team with the more prolific offense, should win this game. But anyone who’s spent time in South Carolina knows that numbers, like the sweet tea served at every diner from Charleston to Greenville, can be deceptive.

The conventional wisdom says Clemson has the edge. Their quarterback, Cade Klubnik, throws for nearly fifty more yards per game than his counterpart. Their offense generates more total yards, touchdowns, and everything that should matter. We could all go home now if football games were played on spreadsheets.

But here’s where it gets interesting.

While everyone’s been watching Klubnik light up the stat sheet, South Carolina has been quietly perfecting the art of chaos. They don’t just play defense; they create havoc. Eighteen forced fumbles this season – a number that makes defensive coordinators salivate and quarterbacks wake up in cold sweats. Their defensive captain, Nick Emmanwori, has turned the secondary into a no-fly zone with four interceptions, but it’s his 76 tackles that tell the real story. He’s not just picking off passes; he’s hunting down ball carriers with the relentless precision of a Wall Street algorithm.

The market inefficiency here – the thing everyone else has missed – is in the special teams battle. South Carolina’s punter, Kai Kroeger, is averaging 47.8 yards per punt, a full five yards more than his Clemson counterpart. In a game where field position is currency, Kroeger prints money with every boot of the ball.

But perhaps the most telling number isn’t on any stat sheet. Five games – that’s how long South Carolina’s winning streak has stretched. Like confidence in financial markets, momentum in football is a self-fulfilling prophecy. Teams that believe they can’t lose often don’t.

The paradox at the heart of this rivalry is that for all of Clemson’s statistical superiority—their 469.9 yards per game, their 30 passing touchdowns, their number twelve ranking—they’re facing an opponent that has mastered the art of winning ugly. South Carolina’s defense doesn’t just stop drives; it ends them violently, with forced fumbles and defensive stands that send offensive coordinators back to their drawing boards.

Ultimately, this game won’t be decided by the comfortable certainties of statistics. It will come down to something far more primal: the ability to create chaos and thrive within it. South Carolina has turned defensive mayhem into an art form, while Clemson has built an offensive machine that looks unstoppable – until it meets a force that doesn’t play by the normal rules of engagement.

Overall Team Comparison

Records and Rankings:

  • Clemson: 9-2, ranked #12
  • South Carolina: 8-3, ranked #16

Momentum:

  • Clemson is on a 3-game winning streak
  • South Carolina is on a 5-game winning streak

Offensive Analysis

Passing Game:

  • Clemson’s Cade Klubnik leads a more prolific passing attack (274.6 yards/game) compared to South Carolina’s LaNorris Sellers (225.5 yards/game).
  • Clemson has a slight edge in passing touchdowns (30 vs. 20).

Rushing Game:

  • Clemson averages more rushing yards (195.3 vs. 181.8 yards/game).
  • South Carolina’s Raheim Sanders is the standout rusher with 11 TDs, while Clemson’s Phil Mafah leads with 8 TDs.

Key Playmakers:

  • Clemson: Antonio Williams (WR, 10 receiving TDs), Phil Mafah (RB, 1012 rushing yards)
  • South Carolina: Raheim Sanders (RB, 13 total TDs), Joshua Simon (TE, 6 receiving TDs)

Total Offense:

  • Clemson averages 469.9 yards/game
  • South Carolina averages 407.3 yards/game

Defensive Analysis

Run Defense:

  • South Carolina allows fewer rushing yards (103.4 vs. 139.6 yards/game).

Pass Defense:

  • Both teams are similar, with South Carolina slightly better (200.3 vs. 210.8 yards allowed/game).

Turnovers:

  • Clemson has more interceptions (13 vs. 12).
  • South Carolina forces more fumbles (18 vs. 11).

Key Defenders:

  • Clemson: T.J. Parker (9 sacks), Wade Woodaz and Barrett Carter (61 tackles each)
  • South Carolina: Kyle Kennard (11.5 sacks), Nick Emmanwori (76 tackles, 4 INTs)

Special Teams

Kicking:

  • Clemson’s Nolan Hauser: 15/20 FGs, 50/51 XPs
  • South Carolina’s Alex Herrera: 13/18 FGs, 41/41 XPs

Punting:

  • South Carolina’s Kai Kroeger averages 47.8 yards/punt
  • Clemson’s Aidan Swanson averages 42.4 yards/punt

Returns:

  • Clemson has a slight edge in kick returns (18.8 vs. 17.5 yards/return)
  • Clemson is significantly better in punt returns (8.2 vs. 5.9 yards/return)

Key Factors for the Matchup

  1. Offensive Firepower: Clemson’s more balanced and productive offense could challenge South Carolina’s defense.
  2. Defensive Playmaking: South Carolina’s defense has shown a greater ability to force turnovers and create big plays.
  3. Quarterback Play: The performance of Klubnik (Clemson) and Sellers (South Carolina) will be crucial.
  4. Field Position Battle: South Carolina’s superior punting game could be a significant factor.
  5. Red Zone Efficiency: Both teams have efficient kickers, making red zone conversions critical.
  6. Momentum: South Carolina enters with a longer winning streak, potentially providing a psychological edge.

Prediction

This matchup promises to be closely contested. South Carolina’s defensive strengths balance Clemson’s offensive advantages. The game could come down to turnovers, special teams play, and quarterback performance in critical moments. Given Clemson’s slightly higher ranking, more balanced offense, and home-field advantage, they might have a slight edge. However, South Carolina’s momentum and defensive playmaking ability make them a formidable opponent. Expect a tight game with the potential for big plays on both sides. The team that manages the turnover battle and performs better in special teams is likely to emerge victorious in what could be a classic rivalry matchup.

The smart money says Clemson wins this game 31-27. That’s what the algorithms predict, the statistical models suggest, and every rational analysis concludes. But there’s something fitting about the fact that this game will be played on the last day of November when the crisp autumn air carries just a hint of winter’s chaos. Because in the end, this rivalry isn’t about the predictable – it’s about the moments that break the models.

Clemson 31, South Carolina 27. That’s what the numbers say. But as one wizened South Carolina assistant coach told me with a knowing smile, “The beautiful thing about this game is that it’s played on grass, not paper.” In Palmetto State, grass has a way of growing wild.

Other Games Where We’re Targeting Winners

Michigan at Ohio State – The Cruelest Game in College Football

There’s a particular kind of torture in being favored by three touchdowns against your most bitter rival. Just ask Ohio State, which enters this year’s edition of The Game carrying the kind of burden that could crush a lesser program: the weight of three straight losses to Michigan, a clear path to the Playoff, and the suffocating expectations that come with being the team that absolutely, positively cannot lose to a 6-5 Michigan squad.

The cruel irony isn’t lost on anyone in Columbus. After years of falling to Jim Harbaugh’s powerhouse Michigan teams, the Buckeyes finally get a vulnerable version of their nemesis – and that somehow makes this game even more dangerous. Michigan’s offense may be diminished, but their defense remains stubborn enough to turn this into the ugly, grinding affair that has haunted Ohio State’s recent nightmares.

For Ohio State, it’s a game of psychological warfare against their own demons. Win, and they secure their spot in the Big Ten title game against Oregon while exorcising three years of Michigan-induced trauma. Lose, and… well, no one in scarlet and gray dares contemplate that scenario, even though their Playoff spot would likely survive such a catastrophe.

Michigan, meanwhile, arrives with the most dangerous weapon in college football: nothing to lose. Their defense, still salty enough to make life difficult for any offense, now gets to play the role of spoiler – a position that has produced some of college football’s most

The Game, as it’s known, has never needed additional drama to justify its appointment-viewing status. But this year’s edition adds a particularly twisted psychological element: Ohio State must beat a weakened version of the team that has tormented them or risk a new level of nightmare. There’s no greater pressure in college football than being the team that absolutely must win.

Prediction: Ohio State 31, Michigan 13. But if Michigan’s defense can force a couple of early turnovers and plant those seeds of doubt, that’s why they play The Game.

Notre Dame at USC – The Perfect Trap

There’s something poetic about Notre Dame having to pass through Los Angeles on its way to the College Football Playoff. Like any good Hollywood script, this one comes with all the classic elements of a potential tragedy: the protagonist riding high after overcoming early adversity, one final obstacle that seems manageable on paper, and an antagonist with nothing left to lose but their pride.

The Irish have spent months rehabilitating their image after that inexplicable slip-up early in the season. Like a forgiving audience, the playoff committee has bought into their redemption arc. However, USC’s Coliseum has always had a way of rewriting expected endings, especially when Lincoln Riley’s teams have their backs against the wall.

The numbers that matter here aren’t USC’s five losses – they’ve faced zero fourth-quarter deficits at home this season. Even Penn State, a team currently sitting in playoff position, needed overtime to escape Los Angeles with a win. For all their deficiencies and inconsistent play, the Trojans have mastered the art of the homestand. They’re like a veteran actor who might forget their lines in a touring production but never misses the mark on their home stage.

Lincoln Riley knows this is his last chance at salvaging something from a disappointing season. Expect him to empty the playbook, unleashing everything in USC’s arsenal – George Tirebiter, Traveler, Tommy Trojan, and even John McKay’s statue if he could make them eligible. In USC’s world, where a 6-5 record feels like a dramatic fall from grace, this game represents their chance at a redemptive finale. They’re not just playing spoiler but fighting for their own Hollywood ending.

And therein lies the trap for Notre Dame. They’ve convinced everyone – the committee, the analysts, perhaps even themselves – that they’ve evolved beyond that early-season stumble. But college football has a cruel sense of symmetry. A season that began with an unexpected stumble could end the same way.

Prediction: USC 34, Notre Dame 31. Because sometimes the best Hollywood endings are the ones nobody sees coming, written by a USC team that’s spent all season practicing fourth-quarter drama.

Washington at Oregon – When Empires Fall

Last January, as Washington walked off the field after the national championship game, the future seemed written in stone. The Huskies had Oregon’s number—three straight wins over their nemesis—and a program trajectory that pointed straight up. The rivalry’s power dynamics had shifted permanently toward Seattle.

Ten months later, the story reads like satire. Oregon stands undefeated, the last perfect team in major college football, while Washington stumbles into Eugene, looking less like a rival and more like a ritual sacrifice. The Ducks aren’t just winning; they’re thriving with the offensive balance that defensive coordinators see in their nightmares. Dillon Gabriel has turned the passing game into performance art, already eclipsing 3,000 yards. At the same time, Jordan James pounds out tough yards on the ground like a metronome measuring Oregon’s inevitable march toward the playoff.

Washington’s Will Rogers, meanwhile, looks like a quarterback trying to read a playbook written in hieroglyphics, throwing more interceptions (six) than touchdowns (two) over his last five games. The Huskies’ only hope lies in their 19th-ranked defense, and the strange mathematics of rivalry games – six of the last nine meetings have been decided by less than seven points.

But there’s something almost quaint about those historical statistics now. They’re like photos from a different era, reminders of when Washington could go toe-to-toe with the Ducks. Oregon doesn’t need this game – they could lose here and in next week’s Big Ten title game and likely still make the playoffs. That’s the kind of security that breeds either complacency or ruthlessness.

Prediction: Oregon 42, Washington 17. The cruelest part of college football’s natural order isn’t the fall from grace – it’s watching your rival ascend to heights you thought would be yours.

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Targeting Winners Gridiron Trifecta: UNLV Battles San Jose State, Ohio State Faces Indiana Upset Bid, USC-UCLA Clash in Crosstown Showdown

Mark Haines on November 22, 2024

In a college football weekend that promises to reshape conference landscapes and ignite rivalries, three pivotal matchups take center stage in this Targeting Winners gridiron trifecta. The 23rd-ranked UNLV Rebels, orchestrating a Cinderella season under Barry Odom, square off against the aerial assault of San Jose State in a Mountain West thriller that could redefine the conference hierarchy

Meanwhile, the Big Ten trembles as Indiana’s high-octane offense, averaging a staggering 43.9 points per game, dares to challenge Ohio State’s fortress-like defense, allowing a mere 10.3 points per game, in a clash that could alter the College Football Playoff picture.

And in Los Angeles, the crosstown rivalry between USC and UCLA takes on newfound urgency, with bowl eligibility hanging in the balance for the Trojans and pride at stake for the Bruins in their inaugural Big Ten season.

It’s a weekend where underdogs dream big, powerhouses defend their thrones, and every snap could alter the course of the season. Tune into the Targeting Winners Podcast for a breakdown of other featured games this week.

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This Week’s Targeting Winners Preview: Conference Championship Implications Abound

Mark Haines on November 14, 2024

As we gear up for another edition of the Targeting Winners Podcast, which will be released this Friday (available on Spotify, Apple, or wherever you get your podcasts), let’s dive into three games that have caught our attention—each with its own compelling narrative around coaching futures and championship aspirations.

Boise State at San Jose State: Mountain West Mayhem

The Broncos roll into San Jose as 13.5-point road favorites, but don’t let that spread fool you. This game has all the makings of a classic Mountain West slugfest. Boise State’s Group of Five playoff hopes hang in the balance, with Army and Tulane breathing down their necks.

This is particularly intriguing because San Jose State’s 34th-ranked run defense is squaring up against Ashton Jeanty and the Broncos’ ground game. Add in the Spartans’ explosive receiver Nick Nash (1,156 yards, 13 TDs), and we might see fireworks. Our prediction leans Boise State 34-24, closer than the spread suggests.

Utah at Colorado: Western Pride on the Line

Colorado enters as 10-point home favorites, but there’s more than meets the eye here. The Buffaloes’ dynamic duo of Shedeur Sanders and Travis Hunter face their stiffest test against Utah’s 8th-ranked pass defense. Coming off a controversial loss to BYU, the Utes are hungry for redemption.

The stakes? Colorado’s chasing both a Big 12 Championship berth and playoff dreams. This is a classic defense-versus-offense showdown, landing around 27-20 Colorado. That Utah pass defense is no joke, folks.

Texas at Arkansas: SEC Preview with Job Security Subplots

Here’s where things get spicy. Texas (-15) returns to the scene of one of Steve Sarkisian’s early career lowlights – that 40-21 beating in 2021. But the real story here is Sam Pittman’s job security at Arkansas.

Pittman’s situation is fascinating. The fanbase loves him personally, but what about those on-field results? Not so much. Here’s the kicker – Pittman needs two more wins, including a bowl victory, to trigger an automatic extension and bonus. After that Ole Miss embarrassment exposed some disciplinary issues, every game becomes a must-win for his future in Fayetteville.

Arkansas’s pass rush and run defense could make things interesting, but Texas’s talent advantage should prevail. We’re looking at Texas 35-24, though don’t be shocked if Pittman’s squad comes out swinging – there’s more than just pride on the line here.

Make sure to catch the full breakdown on this week’s Targeting Winners Podcast. The crew always brings insights you won’t find anywhere else, and these games deserve that deep-dive treatment.

For more in-depth analysis and daily updates on coaching hot seats across college football, keep it locked on CoachesHotSeat.com.

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Week 11’s Hidden Gems: Why the Computers Love Indiana (-14.5) and Doubt Georgia (-2.5)

Mark Haines on November 7, 2024

College Football’s Week 11 Hidden Gems

Every Thursday afternoon, I lay out the games that have caught my analytical eye – the matchups where the numbers whisper something different than the conventional wisdom shouts. This week, I’m focused on three contests that feel like finding mispriced assets in an efficient market: Indiana, that offensive juggernaut masquerading as a No. 8 team, laying 14.5 points against Michigan’s statistical regression to mediocrity; Ole Miss, where the computers suggest Georgia’s dynasty might be vulnerable, priced at just +2.5 at home; and undefeated Army, dominating opponents by four touchdowns per game yet valued as mere 5.5-point favorites against North Texas’s explosive offense. Compare these picks with what you’ll hear on the Targeting Winners Podcast (dropping every Friday afternoon on Spotify, Apple, or wherever you consume your gambling insights) and make your own calls. In a sport where everyone claims to know what will happen next, sometimes the best strategy is following where the numbers – not the noise – lead you.

Michigan at No. 8 Indiana

In the grand theater of college football, where narratives shape reality as much as the numbers that describe it, there’s something deliciously compelling about Indiana’s position heading into Week 11. The Hoosiers, those perennial Big Ten afterthoughts, find themselves winning and dominating – the kind of dominance that makes the spreadsheet jockeys at FanDuel set a -14.5 point spread against Michigan. Yes, that Michigan.

The analytics tell a story that would have seemed unthinkable just months ago. Under first-year coach Curt Cignetti, Indiana’s offense isn’t just good – it’s third in the nation, averaging 47 points per game. This kind of statistical anomaly makes you wonder if someone’s Excel formula has gone haywire. But no, the Hoosiers are genuinely reshaping the geometry of Big Ten football. At the same time, Michigan’s offense has become a case study in regression to the mean, ranking an almost incomprehensible 116th nationally in scoring.

The quants have spoken, and their computers have run 20,000 simulations of this matchup. In 86.9% of these digital futures, Indiana emerges victorious. If you’re wondering what this looks like in real numbers, that’s 17,380 victories to 2,620 losses. The machines think Indiana will win by 16.8 points, enough to cover the spread and then some.

But here’s where it gets interesting: The betting public, those eternal skeptics of sudden transformation, are still showing traces of doubt. While 66% of bets are riding with Indiana to cover, there’s a stubborn 34% clinging to the idea that Michigan will either pull off the upset or keep it within two touchdowns. It’s the kind of contrarian betting behavior that usually signals either prescience or delusion – and we won’t know which until Saturday afternoon.

Indiana’s perceived slight in the College Football Playoff rankings is the most fascinating subplot. Despite being undefeated, they sit at No. 8, with the committee pointing to their 82nd-ranked strength of schedule like accountants finding a rounding error in the books. Their best wins? Washington and Nebraska, both 5-4. It’s the kind of resume that makes the traditional powers smirk – until they face this offensive juggernaut beating FBS opponents by nearly four touchdowns per game.

Followers of the Targeting Winners Podcast know that betting against momentum like Indiana’s is akin to fighting the tide. The analytics give them an 86.5% chance of making the playoff, projecting 11.3 wins this season. Meanwhile, Michigan is projected for just 6 wins – the number that makes you wonder if someone accidentally divided by two.

When CBS’s cameras roll at 3:30 PM Eastern on Saturday, we’ll witness either the continuation of Indiana’s improbable ascension or a reminder that football, like markets, can correct violently and without warning. The smart money – and the machines – are betting on the former.

But then again, that’s why they play the games.

No. 3 Georgia at No. 16 Ole Miss

There’s a peculiar beauty in watching markets adjust to new information, and that’s exactly what we’re witnessing in Oxford this week. The mighty Georgia Bulldogs, winners of 11 of their last 12 against Ole Miss, arrive as mere 2.5-point favorites. The spread makes you wonder if the bookmakers know something the rest of us don’t.

The analytics paint a picture that would have seemed absurd just weeks ago. The SP+ model, that grand attempt to quantify college football’s “most sustainable and predictable aspects,” has Ole Miss winning 28-26. In predictive models, this is the equivalent of a Wall Street quant suggesting that a blue-chip stock is about to underperform. The computers have run their simulations 20,000 times, and in 53.9% of these digital futures, the Rebels emerge victorious. It’s a razor-thin margin that suggests we’re witnessing something approaching perfect market efficiency in college football odds.

But here’s where it gets interesting: Ole Miss has been manufacturing points like a tech company manufactures growth statistics, ranking sixth nationally by averaging 23 points better than its opponents. Georgia, meanwhile, has been merely mortal, outperforming its competition by 11.7 points—the kind of regression that makes defensive coordinators wake up in cold sweats.

The most fascinating subplot in all this is the efficiency metrics. Ole Miss’s defense – yes, their defense – ranks third in FBS by surrendering just 0.192 points per play. It’s the kind of statistical anomaly that makes you double-check your spreadsheets. Georgia’s offense sits at a respectable 15th nationally, allowing 0.286 points per play. However, in the zero-sum game of elite college football, being merely “respectable” is often a predictor of impending doom.

The betting markets, efficient processors of public sentiment, show a slight lean toward convention—55% of bets are riding with Georgia. It’s as if the market can’t quite bring itself to believe what the numbers tell it, like investors holding onto a falling stock because they remember its glory days.

For those following the Targeting Winners Podcast, this game represents a classic conflict between narrative and numbers. The narrative says Georgia is still Georgia, still the team that demolished these same Rebels 52-17 last year in Athens. The numbers, however, tell a different story.

Carson Beck’s 11 interceptions loom over this game like a credit default swap in 2008 – a hidden risk that could suddenly become visible. Meanwhile, Jaxson Dart just finished carving up Arkansas for 515 yards and six touchdowns, the kind of performance that makes predictive models recalibrate their assumptions in real time.

When ABC’s cameras go live at 3:30 PM Eastern on Saturday, we’ll watch more than just a football game. We’ll be watching a market correction in real-time, a test of whether the traditional power structures of college football can withstand the assault of pure statistical efficiency. The FPI gives Georgia an 83.5% chance of making the playoff, while Ole Miss sits at 61.1%—numbers that could shift dramatically based on three hours in Oxford.

The smart money – and the machines – say Ole Miss by a field goal or less. In a sport increasingly dominated by data, sometimes the most radical act is simply believing what the numbers tell you.

No 25 Army at North Texas

In the efficient college football betting market, a price discovery problem occasionally emerges that makes you question everything you think you know about value. Consider Army, undefeated and ranked 25th, favored by merely 5.5 points against North Texas. The spread makes you wonder whether the market has identified a fundamental flaw in Army’s pristine record or if we’re witnessing a massive pricing error.

The numbers tell a story of two teams operating in entirely different realities. Army’s outscoring opponents by 26.6 points per game – the margin that typically commands double-digit spreads. But here’s where the market gets interesting: six of their seven FBS victories have come against teams with losing records. It’s like a hedge fund posting impressive returns while trading only the most predictable securities.

Enter North Texas, the Mean Green chaos merchants of the American Athletic Conference. They possess the conference’s highest-scoring offense, the statistical outlier that makes Army’s defensive metrics look like they might have been compiled in a different era of football. Their quarterback, Chandler Morris, just finished dissecting Tulane’s defense for 449 yards on 38-of-57 passing – the kind of efficiency that makes option-based teams break out in hives.

The betting market has priced this game like a tech stock during earnings season – volatile and uncertain. Army sits at -186 on the moneyline, which translates to an implied probability that seems almost quaint given their perfect record. The Black Knights are 6-0 as favorites this season, the kind of trend that typically makes sharps salivate. But North Texas, at +153, has shown a propensity for violence against point spreads, covering four times in eight attempts.

This game represents a classic market inefficiency for those following the Targeting Winners Podcast. Army’s backup quarterback engineered a 20-3 victory over Air Force, while Morris and company have treated defensive coordinators like day traders during a flash crash.

The total is 63.5, which suggests the market expects North Texas to dictate the tempo. This is a reasonable assumption considering Morris’s recent performance: 449 yards against Tulane, the kind of number that makes service academies reconsider their defensive philosophies.

When ESPN2’s cameras go live at 3:30 PM Eastern on Saturday, we’ll witness either a market correction or a confirmation that sometimes perfect records are less valuable than they appear. Army coach Jeff Monken might get his starting quarterback Daily back, but in a game where North Texas treats passing yards like venture capitalists treat revenue growth, it might not matter.

The computers and the sharps seem to be telling us that Army’s undefeated record is about to face its strongest stress test yet. In a sport increasingly dominated by offensive efficiency, sometimes the best bet is against perfection.

Who are you picking this week? Comment here.

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Coaches Hot Seat is Targeting Winners for Week 10

Mark Haines on October 31, 2024

Okay, folks, get ready. It’s that time of the week again when we dive headfirst into the chaotic, beautiful mess that is college football. Friday’s episode of the Targeting Winners podcast (available on Spotify, Apple, or wherever you get your podcasts) is coming at you hot, and trust me, you don’t want to miss this. They’ll be talking Xs and Os, dissecting matchups, and uncovering those hidden gems that’ll have you cashing in come Saturday.

Today, I’ll share my weekend bets and prep with you.  I’m not just throwing darts at a board. I’m breaking down film, analyzing stats, and getting into the nitty-gritty.

This week, I’ve got three games I’m reviewing: San Diego State at Boise State, Ohio State at Penn State, and Pitt at SMU. We’re talking potential upsets, high-scoring shootouts, and maybe even a bit of old-fashioned smashmouth football. So read my breakdown below, make your picks, and fire up Spotify, Apple, or wherever you get your podcasts on Friday afternoon. Then, get ready to ride the wave with us.

San Diego State at (15) Boise State

The San Diego State Aztecs (3-4) will face the No. 15 Boise State Broncos (6-1) in a Mountain West Conference matchup on Friday, November 1, 2024, at Albertsons Stadium in Boise, Idaho14. The game will kick off at 8:00 p.m. ET and be broadcast on Fox Sports 14.

Betting Odds and Predictions

Boise State is heavily favored in this matchup:

  • Spread: Boise State -23.5
  • Moneyline: Boise State -2439, San Diego State +1096
  • Over/Under: 57.5 points14

The College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter (CFN FPM) has a slightly tighter spread of Boise State -18.54.

Key Factors

Home Field Advantage: Boise State has a strong home field advantage, but San Diego State has won at Albertsons Stadium in the past (2018 and 2012).

Head-to-Head Record: This will be the 10th meeting between the two teams, with Boise State holding a slight 5-4 advantage.

Recent Performance: Boise State has won every game where it has been favored this year, while San Diego State has failed to win as an underdog.

Against the Spread (ATS): San Diego State is 3-2 ATS as an underdog, while Boise State has failed to cover three times as a double-digit favorite.

Weather: The forecast calls for temperatures around 42 degrees with a chance of showers, which could impact game performance.

Outlook by Team

San Diego State:

  • New head coach Sean Lewis wants to improve last year’s 4-8 record.
  • The Aztecs have an 8.3% winning probability for this game.
  • Their season outlook improves after this game, with better winning probabilities against upcoming opponents.

Boise State:

  • The Broncos have a 91.7% winning probability for this game.
  • They are on track for a potential Group of Five spot in the College Football Playoff, and their remaining games have high winning probabilities.

Analysis

Okay, you’ve got this classic David vs. Goliath scenario brewing in Boise. San Diego State, the scrappy underdog, is rolling into town with a new coach and something to prove. They’re like the Oakland A’s of college football, trying to outsmart the system with grit and a lot of hustle. But then there’s Boise State, the perennial powerhouse, the kings of the blue turf. They’re the New York Yankees, used to winning and expected to dominate.

But here’s the thing: Boise State has this weird quirk. When they’re supposed to win big, they sometimes… don’t. It’s like they get bored or something. And San Diego State? Well, they’ve been defying expectations all season. They’re like that one stock you didn’t think would make a comeback, but suddenly it’s surging. Nobody saw it coming.

You might think this is just another game, but it’s more than that. It’s a clash of cultures, a test of wills. Can San Diego State, with its new coach and underdog mentality, pull off the upset? Or will Boise State crush their dreams with its home-field advantage and history of dominance? It’s a high-stakes game, and the tension is thicker than the Idaho potato soup they serve in the stadium.

Prediction

The air crackles with anticipation. The Broncos, bathed in the eerie glow of the blue turf, exude an aura of invincibility. But beneath the surface, a tremor of doubt. The Aztecs, eyes locked on their prey, carry the quiet confidence of a wolf pack circling its quarry.

This is not a game of mere statistics and spreadsheets. It’s a battle of souls, a collision of destinies. Boise State, the established power, yearns to maintain its grip on the throne. The hungry challenger, San Diego State, fights for recognition and a place at the table.

The final whistle blows. The scoreboard tells a story of Boise State’s dominance: 35-14. But the numbers don’t reveal the whole truth. They don’t show the fierce struggle, the moments of brilliance, the echoes of what could have been. San Diego State, though defeated, leaves the field with heads held high. They have pushed the giants to the brink, proven their mettle, and earned respect that transcends the final score.

Game 2: (3) Ohio State at (7) Penn State

No. 3 Ohio State (7-1) will face No. 7 Penn State (7-0) in a crucial Big Ten matchup on Saturday, November 2, 2024, at Beaver Stadium in University Park, Pennsylvania. The game will kick off at noon ET and be broadcast on Fox.

Betting Odds and Predictions

The betting odds and predictions for this game are notably close:

  • Spread: SMU -7.5
  • Moneyline: SMU -340, Pittsburgh +270
  • Over/Under: 59 points

Interestingly, the College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter (CFN FPM) slightly favors Penn State with a spread of Penn State -1.5.

Key Factors

  • Recent History: Ohio State has won the last seven meetings between these teams, indicating a psychological edge.
  • Home Field Advantage: Penn State will benefit from playing at Beaver Stadium, which could be a significant factor.
  • Against the Spread (ATS): Both teams are 3-4 ATS this season, suggesting neither has a clear advantage in covering the spread.
  • Recent Performance: Ohio State has failed to cover in their last two games, including a narrow loss to Oregon.
  • Weather: The forecast calls for partly cloudy conditions with mild temperatures, which shouldn’t significantly impact the game.

Outlook by Team

Ohio State:

  • The Buckeyes have a 47.5% winning probability for this game.
  • A win would keep them in contention for the Big Ten Championship and the College Football Playoff.
  • Their remaining schedule looks favorable, with high winning probabilities against most opponents.

Penn State:

  • The Nittany Lions have a 52.5% winning probability for this game.
  • A win could potentially secure their spot in the College Football Playoff and the Big Ten title game.
  • Their remaining schedule appears relatively easy, with high winning probabilities against all opponents.

Analysis

This game is a real barnburner. Ohio State, the big, bad Buckeyes, strolling into Happy Valley like they own the place. They’re the Goldman Sachs of college football, all about tradition and pedigree. But Penn State? They’re the hungry upstarts, the Robinhood traders trying to disrupt the establishment.

Now, on paper, Ohio State should have this in the bag. They’ve got the history, the talent, the whole nine yards. But something’s not quite right. They’ve been stumbling lately, like a thoroughbred with a pulled hamstring. And Penn State? They’re playing with a fire in their belly, a chip on their shoulder. They’re like that meme stock, GameStop, ready to explode.

But here’s the kicker: Penn State has this weird thing about pressure. It’s like they get stage fright when the spotlight’s on. And Ohio State? Well, they’re used to the big stage. They thrive on it. It’s like they’re playing with house money.

This game is not just about X’s and O’s. It’s about psychology, about who wants it more. With their home crowd and underdog mentality, can Penn State pull off the upset? Or will Ohio State silence the doubters with their championship pedigree and ability to perform under pressure? It’s a high-stakes game, folks, and the tension is thicker than a Philly cheesesteak.

Prediction

This is not merely a contest of athletic prowess. It’s a clash of wills, a battle for supremacy. Hungry for victory, Penn State seeks to break the chains of history. Ohio State, the reigning king, fights to preserve its legacy.

The final whistle echoes through the valley. The scoreboard illuminates the night: Penn State 24, Ohio State 21. The upset is complete. The Nittany Lions have roared to victory, their hearts and spirit carrying them through the storm. Ohio State, wounded but not broken, retreats into the night, knowing that the battle for dominance has just begun.

Game 3: Pitt @ SMU

No. 18 Pittsburgh (7-0, 3-0 ACC) will face No. 20 SMU (7-1, 4-0 ACC) in a crucial ACC matchup on Saturday, November 2, 2024, at Gerald J. Ford Stadium in University Park, Texas—the game broadcast on the ACC Network.

Betting Odds and Predictions

The betting odds for this game favor SMU:

  • Spread: SMU -7.5
  • Moneyline: SMU -340, Pittsburgh +270
  • Over/Under: 59 points

Interestingly, the College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter (CFN FPM) sees the game as a “pick’em”.

Key Factors

Historical Record: SMU leads the all-time series 3-2-1, with their last meeting in 2012.

Recent Performance: Pittsburgh is undefeated at 7-0, while SMU has a strong 7-1 record.

Against the Spread (ATS): Pittsburgh has been excellent ATS at 6-1, including 2-0 as an underdog. SMU has failed to cover three times as a favorite this season.

Weather: The forecast calls for rainy conditions, which could impact the game plan for both teams.

Quarterback Play: SMU’s switch to Kevin Jennings at quarterback has recently improved their performance.

Outlook by Team

Pittsburgh:

  • The Panthers have a 50.6% winning probability for this game.
  • They’ve won many close games this season, suggesting luck and resilience.
  • Their defense has been opportunistic, with three pick-sixes in their last game against Syracuse.

SMU:

  • The Mustangs have a 49.4% winning probability for this game.
  • They’ve shown consistent improvement, especially since changing quarterbacks.
  • SMU is coming off a game with six turnovers, which is likely an anomaly.

Analysis

In this matchup, we have two overperforming squads defying preseason predictions, each with a unique storyline. Pittsburgh, sitting undefeated, has won a series of nail-biters, showing grit but perhaps testing the bounds of luck. Conversely, SMU has been on a steady upward trajectory, bolstered by a passionate home crowd that could be a game-changer.

Key Factors to Watch:

Turnover Battle: Both teams have recently emerged from turnover-heavy games that were borderline chaotic. But volatility doesn’t tend to linger; we’re likely to see a reversion to the mean here. This could give an edge to whichever team capitalizes on each opportunity.

SMU’s Dual-Threat QB: Pittsburgh’s defense hasn’t faced a genuine dual-threat quarterback, which will test their ability to handle both the pass and the scramble. SMU’s quarterback, Jennings, brings a dynamic quality that could break open Pittsburgh’s defensive schemes.

Weather Impact: Forecasts call for rain, which often turns passing into a slippery gamble. In such conditions, expect a heavy reliance on the ground game, potentially increasing the chance of turnovers, fumbles, and short-field opportunities.

Prediction

While Pittsburgh has proven itself resilient in close encounters, SMU’s home-field advantage and steadily improving roster could tilt the scales. Jennings and the Mustangs’ offense should be capable of pressuring Pittsburgh’s defense in ways they haven’t yet experienced this season. Given a return to average turnover rates and SMU’s balanced approach, they look positioned to edge out the Panthers.

Score Prediction:

SMU 31, Pittsburgh 24

This forecast aligns with the current betting odds, reflecting the likely tightness of the contest. With the potential for rain to stymie offensive flow, the game should settle under the 59-point over/under, as weather conditions push teams to lean more on the ground game and conservative strategies.

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Week 9 Featured Games:The Underdogs, the Upsets, and the Unraveling

Mark Haines on October 26, 2024

Step back from the spreadsheets, the power rankings and the expert predictions – Week 9 featured games are about to remind us why we watch this sport in the first place: for the moments that defy logic and rewrite the script.

Early Game

No. 12 Notre Dame vs. No. 24 Navy

Noon Eastern/9:00 AM Pacific

Network: ABC

This isn’t just a football game; it’s a collision of worlds. Notre Dame, the wounded lion, stumbles into the arena, its playoff hopes hanging by a thread. Five starters down, they’re a symphony orchestra missing half its instruments. And Navy? They’re the barbarians at the gate, 6-0 and averaging 45 points a game, led by Blake Horvath, a quarterback who turns the triple option into a weapon of mass destruction. Imagine Barry Sanders with a playbook designed to make defensive coordinators spontaneously combust. The line moved? You bet it did. The smart money knows: Notre Dame’s defense is built for finesse, not this kind of organized chaos. They’re chess players facing a barroom brawl. If Navy pulls off the upset, it’s not just a win; it’s a statement. A declaration that the Midshipmen belong in the playoff conversation, while the Irish are left wondering where it all went wrong.

Afternoon Games

No. 21 Missouri at No. 15 Alabama

Gametime: 3:30 PM Eastern/12:30 PM Pacific

Network: ABC

The eyes of the college football world are on Tuscaloosa. Not just because Alabama has stumbled – two losses in three games is practically an apocalypse in these parts – but because a new era has dawned. The offensive guru, Kalen DeBoer, takes the reins from the legendary Nick Saban. The pressure is immense. Can DeBoer exorcise the ghosts of Alabama’s recent struggles and establish his reign? Or will Eli Drinkwitz and his Missouri Tigers play the role of party crashers, exposing the vulnerabilities of a transition program? This isn’t just a game; it’s a referendum on the future of Alabama football.  

No. 5 Texas at No. 25 Vanderbilt

Game Time: 4:15 PM Eastern/1:15 Pacific

Network: SEC Network

While Alabama grapples with a new identity, Vanderbilt embraces its unexpected transformation. They’ve slain giants, toppling Alabama and sending shockwaves through the SEC. Now, they face another test: the Texas Longhorns, a team still finding its footing after a humbling loss to Georgia. Diego Pavia, the Commodore quarterback, embodies this new Vanderbilt: fearless, confident, and ready to take on anyone. Texas, meanwhile, needs to rediscover its swagger. Can they overcome the chaos in Nashville and avoid becoming another victim of Vandy’s magic? Or will the Commodores continue their Cinderella story, proving their rise is no fluke?

Evening Game

No. 3 Penn State at Wisconsin

Game Time: 7:30 PM Eastern/4:30 PM Pacific

Network: NBC

The whispers are swirling in Happy Valley. “Ohio State, Ohio State, Ohio State.” It’s the biggest game on Penn State’s horizon, a clash of titans that could decide the Big Ten East. But first, there’s the matter of Wisconsin, a team lurking in the shadows, hungry to play spoiler. Fresh off a bruising battle with USC, Penn State can’t afford to look past this one. Camp Randall at night is a cauldron of noise and fury, a place where dreams go to die. But this Penn State team, led by the cool-headed Drew Allar, has the grit and the talent to silence the doubters. Their defense is a fortress, and Allar is growing into a true field general. Can they weather the storm in Madison and escape with their undefeated season intact? Or will Wisconsin, sensing vulnerability, deliver a knockout blow and send shockwaves through the Big Ten?

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Hot Seat Saturday: Where Every Snap Could Be a Coach’s Last

Mark Haines on October 19, 2024

This is Hot Seat Saturday, and the gridiron isn’t just a battleground for players; it’s a high-stakes arena where coaches fight for their careers. Across the nation, embattled coaches face must-win situations, their every decision scrutinized under the intense pressure of the hot seat. From the SEC to the Big 12, programs are teetering on the brink of change, and this weekend could be the tipping point. Join us as we delve into the most compelling Hot Seat matchups, where a single play could make or break a coach’s destiny.

Auburn @ Missouri: Can Drinkwitz Turn Up the Heat on Freeze?

Time: Noon Easter/9:00 AM Pacific

Network: ESPN

The Tigers clash in Columbia this Saturday, but the real story lies on the sidelines. Eli Drinkwitz, with his Missouri Tigers at 5-1 and sniffing a playoff berth, has a chance to turn up the heat on Hugh Freeze and his struggling Auburn squad. Freeze, already on shaky ground at 2-4, can ill afford another loss, especially one against a team Auburn should, on paper, be competitive with. Missouri’s offense, while not flashy, has been efficient, and their defense will be looking to feast on Auburn’s turnover-prone quarterback, Payton Thorne. If Drinkwitz can orchestrate a convincing win, it could send Freeze further down the hot seat and solidify Drinkwitz’s status as a rising star in the SEC.

Tulsa @ Temple: Drayton’s Last Stand? Fry’s History Suggests So.

Game Time: 2:00 PM Eastern/11:00 AM Pacific

Network: ESPN+

This Saturday’s clash between Temple and Tulsa isn’t just a battle of two winless AAC teams; it’s a potential last stand for Owls head coach Stan Drayton, and the man in the stands, new university president John Fry, might be the one to seal his fate. With Temple sitting at a dismal 1-5, Drayton’s seat is scorching hot. A loss to a similarly struggling Tulsa team could be the final straw, especially considering Fry’s history.

While Fry has voiced support for Temple athletics, his 2016 op-ed in the Wall Street Journal, where he defended Drexel University’s decision not to have a football team, paints a different picture. This raises the stakes significantly for Drayton. He needs to convince Fry that football is worth investing in at Temple. Tulsa’s ground-heavy attack will test the Owls’ porous run defense, while Temple’s offense, led by receiver Dante Wright, must exploit a Tulsa defense that’s among the nation’s worst. For Drayton, this game is less about X’s and O’s and more about survival. A win could buy him some time and show Fry a glimmer of hope, but another loss might be another step toward the end of his tenure in Philadelphia. Fry, with his cost-conscious approach to athletics, might decide it’s time for a fresh start.

UAB @ USF: Dilfer’s Dumpster Fire Heads to Tampa, Is His Job Next?

Game Time: 3:30 Eastern/12:30 Pacific

Network: ESPN+

This Saturday’s matchup between UAB and USF features two teams desperate for a win, but the pressure is squarely on the shoulders of UAB head coach Trent Dilfer. Despite being favored by 13.5 points, USF enters the game at a disappointing 2-4, mirroring UAB’s own struggles. However, Dilfer, now in his second year at the helm, is already facing serious questions about his leadership and offensive approach, especially after last week’s demoralizing loss where the Blazers appeared to quit.

Dilfer’s Blazers have been a certifiable dumpster fire this season, ranking among the nation’s worst in scoring. Quarterback play has been inconsistent, and the run game hasn’t provided much relief. This all culminates in a program that looks like it’s lost its fight. Meanwhile, USF, despite their offensive woes, might have found a spark in backup quarterback Bryce Archie, who showed promise in their last outing. It might be the final straw if Dilfer can’t rally his Blazers to a convincing victory against a vulnerable USF squad. This game is a crucial test for Dilfer, which could determine whether he keeps his job at UAB.

Baylor @ Texas Tech: Can McGuire Deliver the Knockout Blow to Aranda?

Game Time: 4:00 PM Eastern/1:00 PM Pacific

Network: ESPN 2

This Saturday’s matchup between Texas Tech and Baylor is more than just a Big 12 showdown; it’s a potential turning point in the coaching careers of both Joey McGuire and Dave Aranda. With his Red Raiders at a surprising 5-1 and undefeated in conference play, McGuire can deliver a knockout blow to Aranda, who sits atop the Coaches Hot Seat Rankings. Aranda’s Bears, at a dismal 2-4 and winless in the Big 12, are reeling, and a loss to their in-state rivals could be the final straw.

Texas Tech’s offense, led by quarterback Behren Morton, has been efficient both through the air and on the ground. They’ll look to exploit a Baylor defense that struggles mightily on the road. For Aranda, this game is about more than just stopping the bleeding; it’s about proving he can still rally his team and compete in a tough conference. A loss, especially a decisive one, could seal his fate in Waco. McGuire, meanwhile, has a chance to solidify his status as a rising star in the Big 12 and potentially send his former colleague packing.

Kansas State @ West Virginia: “Are You Having Fun?” Brown’s Plea and Klieman’s Push for Big 12 Supremacy

Game Time: 7:30 PM Eastern/4:30 PM Pacific

Network: Fox

This Saturday’s clash between Kansas State and West Virginia is a tale of two coaches heading in opposite directions, fueled by a controversial question. Chris Klieman, with his Wildcats ranked #17 and fresh off a comeback victory, is looking to solidify his team as a contender in the Big 12. Meanwhile, Neal Brown finds himself fighting for his job in Morgantown, his fate hanging on more than wins and losses. Despite a respectable 3-3 record, Brown’s Mountaineers have faltered against every quality opponent they’ve faced, and fan frustration has reached a boiling point. This discontent erupted after West Virginia’s latest loss when Brown, in response to dwindling fan support, questioned whether fans were “having a good time” at games, a comment that sparked outrage and ignited a “Fire Neal Brown” movement, complete with a fundraiser to fund a banner being flown over the stadium.

This game is a crucial test for both coaches. Klieman must avoid a letdown against a West Virginia team that’s more dangerous than their record suggests. Their run-heavy offense, led by quarterback Garrett Greene, could pose problems for the Wildcats. But for Brown, this game is about more than just a win; it’s about saving his job. He needs to show progress and give fans a reason to believe, to prove that his program is more than just a “good time.” A loss, especially at home, could be the final straw for Brown, while a win might buy him a reprieve and a chance to quell the growing discontent. The stakes are high in Morgantown, and the outcome could significantly impact the trajectory of both programs.

Kentucky @ Florida: Napier Gambles on Lagway, Can the Freshman Save His Season?

Game Time: 7:45 PM Eastern/4:45 Pacific

Network: SEC Network

This Saturday’s clash between Kentucky and Florida isn’t just another SEC East rivalry game; it’s a defining moment for embattled Gators coach Billy Napier. With his team sitting at a mediocre 3-3, Napier is handing the reins to freshman quarterback DJ Lagway, which could either revitalize Florida’s season or be the final nail in Napier’s coffin.

Napier is betting on Lagway, hoping the young quarterback’s athleticism and playmaking ability can spark an offense that has sputtered under Graham Mertz. But throwing Lagway into the fire against a solid Kentucky defense is risky. If Lagway shines and leads the Gators to victory, it could buy Napier some much-needed breathing room and inject life into a stagnant program. However, if Lagway struggles and the Gators fall further behind in the SEC East race, the calls for Napier’s job will only grow louder. This game is a must-win for Napier, and he’s putting his faith in a freshman to deliver. The pressure is on in Gainesville, and the outcome could significantly impact the future of the Florida Gators.

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