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Michigan Is 6-4 And Barely Functional. Michigan State Scores 13 Points Per Game And Can’t Stop Anyone. Here’s Why Saturday’s Rivalry Game Will Be A Clinical 30-13 Win For The Wolverines (And Why Neither Fanbase Should Celebrate)

Mark Haines on October 23, 2025

There’s a moment in every rivalry when one team stops playing to win—and starts playing not to lose.

This is not a game between two good teams. This is a game between a disappointing Michigan squad that’s learned to stop embarrassing itself, and a Michigan State program that can’t stop the bleeding. The Wolverines aren’t elite. They’re just competent enough to handle a disaster.

Michigan Isn’t Good—They’re Just Less Bad Than Before

Control is not aggression.

For Michigan, it’s survival. After Oklahoma exposed them and USC humiliated them, Sherrone Moore’s program didn’t transform into something great. They transformed into something functional. They stopped trying to be what they’re not and started grinding out wins against inferior competition.

Justice Haynes runs hard because that’s all this offense can do.

7.4 yards per carry sounds impressive until you realize Michigan hasn’t played a defense worth a damn since Week 4. They’re averaging 188 rushing yards per game because they’ve played Maryland, Washington, and Illinois—not exactly murderers’ row. This isn’t a dominant rushing attack. It’s a mediocre offense that figured out how to pick on bad defenses.

Michigan fans aren’t celebrating this version of the team—they’re tolerating it.

Moore inherited a national championship roster and turned it into a 6-4 team that wins ugly. The offensive line is solid. The running back is good. Everything else? Pedestrian at best. This isn’t the program that won it all last year. This is the program desperately trying not to become irrelevant.

Michigan State Is a Complete Disaster

When you press for meaning, you lose it.

Michigan State isn’t just bad—they’re historically terrible. Four straight losses. 13 points per game in their last four conference games. 39.8 points allowed on average. Three straight second halves where they looked like they forgot football was a real sport.

Jonathan Smith’s second season in East Lansing has been a step backward.

The offense can’t score. The defense can’t stop anyone. The special teams are a liability. Smith’s rebuilds take time—his track record at Oregon State proves that—but right now, the Mel Tucker mess he inherited looks worse, not better.

Look at their play-calling. They abandon what works because nothing works. They force throws because they’re desperate. They substitute constantly because no combination of players makes a difference.

This is a program in free fall with no parachute.

The Actual Matchup: Mediocre vs Terrible

Football isn’t about momentum.

It’s about who can execute basic tasks without falling apart. Michigan can run the ball against bad defenses. Michigan State can’t stop anyone from running the ball. This isn’t strategy—it’s arithmetic.

Haynes will get his yards because Michigan State’s front seven is Swiss cheese. Michigan’s defense will suffocate an offense that couldn’t score on a JV squad. The Wolverines will win this game doing exactly what they’ve done for six weeks: run the ball, kill the clock, and wait for the other team to collapse.

That’s not dominance—that’s taking advantage of incompetence.

The third quarter will tell the story, like it always does. Michigan will come out running the same plays they’ve run all game. Michigan State’s defense will be tired, frustrated, and making mistakes. Haynes will break a couple of runs, Michigan will extend the lead, and the Spartans will quit.

Not because Michigan is great—because Michigan State is that bad.

This Rivalry Has Become One-Sided

Most people think rivalries equalize teams.

That’s a myth. Rivalries amplify the gap between programs going in opposite directions. Michigan is trending toward mediocrity. Michigan State is trending toward irrelevance.

When Haynes rips off his third big run, watch the Spartan sideline. Players will stop fighting. Coaches will stop believing. That’s when you know a program has lost its soul—when even rivalry week can’t manufacture a fight.

Michigan State came into this season hoping Jonathan Smith’s rebuild would show signs of life in year two. Instead, they’ve regressed. Smith’s track record suggests he can fix this—he turned Oregon State from laughingstock to contender—but rebuilding the Mel Tucker disaster takes time. Meanwhile, Michigan fans are wondering if Sherrone Moore is the guy to lead them back to relevance—or just another mediocre coach riding the fumes of Jim Harbaugh’s success.

The Real Story

It’s about two programs trying to figure out who they are.

Michigan isn’t elite anymore. They’re not even good. They’re just functional enough to beat bad teams and avoid total embarrassment. Moore has stabilized the program after a rough start, but stabilization isn’t excellence.

Michigan State, meanwhile, has no idea what they are—except terrible.

One team figured out how to stop the bleeding. The other can’t find the tourniquet. That’s not a rivalry game—that’s a mercy killing.

The Takeaway

Saturday won’t be close—it will be clinical.

Michigan 30, Michigan State 13. But don’t mistake clinical for impressive. Michigan will win because they’re playing a team that can’t score, can’t stop the run, and can’t manufacture any reason to believe things will get better.

This isn’t a statement win for Michigan—it’s a layup.

For Michigan State, it’s another reminder that this season can’t end fast enough. For Michigan fans, it’s another reminder that competent isn’t the same as contending.

And for the rest of college football? It’s a reminder that rivalry games only matter when both teams show up.

Saturday, only one team will bother.

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The Bush Push Was 20 Years Ago. USC Is Due For Another Heartbreaker At Notre Dame—Except This Time, The Trojans Are On The Wrong End: 30-27

Mark Haines on October 14, 2025

USC rolls into South Bend with a 5-1 record, flashy offensive numbers, and a quarterback playing out of his mind.

Notre Dame sits at 4-2, licking their wounds from two heartbreaking losses to start the season. On paper, this looks like a coin flip. But here’s what everyone is missing: USC’s offensive explosion is a mirage—and Notre Dame’s elite defensive line is about to expose it.

Let me show you why.

The Narrative Everyone Believes

Jayden Maiava is having a Heisman-level season.

The kid leads the entire nation with a 93.5 QBR. He’s thrown for 1,852 yards through six games. His completion percentage (73.1%) is absurd. And he’s got weapons—Makai Lemon has 682 receiving yards and 6 touchdowns, Ja’Kobi Lane is averaging 17.4 yards per catch.

USC’s offense is averaging 552.3 yards per game.

Meanwhile, Notre Dame has already lost twice.

Both to ranked opponents. Both by a combined 4 points, sure—but losses are losses. So the question becomes: Can the Trojans’ explosive offense outduel Notre Dame at home?

Wrong question.

The Real Question No One Is Asking

Can USC’s inflated statistics hold up against the first legitimate defense they’ve faced all season?

Spoiler alert: They can’t.

The Truth Hidden In The Schedule

Let’s talk about USC’s competition.

Week 1: Missouri State (73-13 win)
Week 2: Georgia Southern (59-20 win)

You know what Missouri State is?

A team in its first year transitioning from FCS to FBS, ineligible for postseason play. You know what Georgia Southern is? A Sun Belt team that USC dominated by 39 points. These games are padding stats like crazy.

Remove those two cupcake games, and USC’s offense drops from 552 yards per game to roughly 430-440 against Power 4 competition.

Still good?

Sure. Elite? Not even close.

Now look at Notre Dame’s schedule:

  • Week 1: @ #10 Miami (Lost 24-27)
  • Week 2: vs #16 Texas A&M (Lost 40-41)
  • Every single opponent: Power 4 or better

Notre Dame opened with a potential preseason top-10 team in Miami and hosted a possible top-15 team in Texas A&M, and lost both games by a field goal and a point.

One team has been battle-tested against elite competition.

The other has been stat-padding against cupcakes. Guess which is which?

The Common Opponent Test

Both teams played Purdue.

Notre Dame beat them 56-30. USC beat them 33-17. Same opponent.

Notre Dame scored 23 more points and gained roughly 180 more yards.

When both teams faced the same level of competition, Notre Dame was significantly more dominant.

This is your canary in the coal mine.

The Matchup That Decides Everything

Forget the hype around Maiava for a second.

This game will be won or lost in the trenches, the critical battle: USC’s Offensive Line vs Notre Dame’s Defensive Line.

Here’s what you need to know:

Notre Dame’s defensive line is ranked 6th in the entire nation by Athlon Sports, featuring a deep 6-man rotation that can bring fresh pass rushers at you all game long.

Notre Dame’s run defense allows just 106.2 yards per game and 3.4 yards per carry.

That’s elite.

Now, USC’s offensive line has actually performed well this season.

They rushed for 224 yards against Michigan—the most Michigan had allowed all season. Maiava’s 93.5 QBR doesn’t happen with a terrible O-line. But here’s the thing: USC hasn’t faced a defensive front like this yet.

Not even close.

Notre Dame can throw six different elite pass rushers at you—Boubacar Traore, Bryce Young, Junior Tuihalamaka, Joshua Burnham, Jordan Botelho, Loghan Thomas.

When that rotation starts wearing down USC’s line in the third quarter, Maiava’s clean pockets disappear.

And when Maiava’s under pressure for the first time all season, Notre Dame forces 2.0 turnovers per game.

This is where the game breaks.

What Happens When USC Has The Ball

Maiava will get his yards.

The kid is too good not to. He’ll probably throw for 280-320 yards and 2-3 touchdowns. Lemon and Lane will make plays—they’re both averaging 15+ yards per catch for a reason.

But USC’s rushing attack—the thing that’s been averaging 226.5 yards per game—is about to hit a wall.

Notre Dame’s run defense will hold them to 95-125 yards, max.

Without a ground game, USC becomes one-dimensional. And one-dimensional offenses throw interceptions. Notre Dame forces 2.0 turnovers per game.

Maiava has only thrown 2 picks all season because he hasn’t faced pressure like this.

He’ll throw 1-2 more on Saturday.

USC’s projected output:

  • 24-31 points
  • 375-445 total yards
  • 1-2 turnovers

What Happens When Notre Dame Has The Ball

Notre Dame isn’t flashy.

They’re averaging 465.5 yards per game with 7.2 yards per play—and every single yard has come against quality competition. They’ll run the ball 35+ times. They’ll control the clock.

They’ll pound USC’s defense into submission.

USC’s run defense is solid (allowing 108.5 yards per game), but Notre Dame’s physical, balanced attack will wear them down.

Expect 140-165 rushing yards, 260-290 passing yards, and 2-3 touchdowns.

Notre Dame’s projected output:

  • 27-34 points
  • 400-455 total yards
  • 0-1 turnovers

The X-Factor Everyone Is Ignoring

Notre Dame is 0-2 against ranked opponents this season.

Both losses were heartbreakers. Both by a combined 4 points. They’re at home, they’re desperate, and they’ve been preparing for exactly this level of competition since Week 1.

And let’s not forget the history here.

Anthony Davis scored 6 touchdowns in 1972. The Bush Push in 2005—Reggie Bush helping push Matt Leinart into the end zone as time expired for a 34-31 win. This rivalry has a long history of USC breaking Notre Dame’s heart in the cruelest ways possible.

It’s been 20 years since the Bush Push, and South Bend hasn’t forgotten.

The players haven’t forgotten. Marcus Freeman hasn’t forgotten. The fans certainly haven’t forgotten.

USC?

They’re walking into the loudest stadium they’ve played in all year, against the best defense they’ve faced, with offensive stats inflated by two cupcakes. The pressure is entirely on USC to prove its stats are real.

And I don’t think they can.

The Bold Prediction

Notre Dame 30, USC 27.

Here’s how it plays out:

The first half is back-and-forth. Maiava looks great. Lemon makes a couple of explosive plays.

It’s 17-17 at halftime.

Third quarter, Notre Dame’s 6-man defensive line rotation starts to take over.

Fresh pass rushers every series. USC’s O-line tires. Maiava’s clean pocket disappears. Turnover. Notre Dame goes up 27-20.

In the fourth quarter, USC abandons the run because Notre Dame’s defense has shut it down completely.

Maiava throws for 100+ yards in the quarter, trying to catch up. Notre Dame controls the clock with their run game, bleeds time, and hangs on. USC gets the ball back with 2:00 left, drives to midfield, and the game ends on an incomplete pass.

Why I’m 65% Confident (Not Higher)

Look, Maiava is legit.

93.5 QBR doesn’t lie. The kid can play. And when you have receivers like Lemon (682 yards, 6 TDs) and Lane (313 yards) who can take any throw to the house, you’re never out of it.

One blown coverage, one big play, and USC wins.

That’s the 35% chance they pull this off.

But the other 65%?

That belongs to Notre Dame’s battle-tested defense, elite front seven, and home-field advantage against a team whose gaudy stats are about to get exposed. The Trojans’ magic number run hits a brick wall in South Bend.

And it won’t even be close by the fourth quarter.

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Hugh Freeze Has 2 Games To Save His Job At Auburn. Here’s Why Saturday Night’s Matchup Against #10 Georgia At Jordan-Hare Stadium Is Game 1 Of His Final Stand

Mark Haines on October 9, 2025

7:30 PM EDT. Jordan-Hare Stadium. Lights. Chaos. Everything on the line.

This isn’t just another SEC game.

This is Hugh Freeze fighting for his job. This is Auburn desperate for relevance after back-to-back losses. This is Georgia trying to stay in the playoff hunt on the road, at night, in one of the most dangerous venues in college football.

Let me break down exactly what’s about to happen.

The Numbers Don’t Lie (But Jordan-Hare At Night Doesn’t Care)

Georgia is the better team on paper.

Georgia’s Offensive Dominance:

  • 438.6 yards per game (96.4 more than Auburn)
  • 34.6 points per game
  • Perfectly balanced: 231.8 passing, 206.8 rushing
  • 3.2 rushing touchdowns per game
  • 24.8 first downs per game

Auburn’s Offensive Struggles:

  • 342.2 yards per game (bottom-tier SEC)
  • 27.6 points per game
  • Anemic passing: 173.2 yards, 1.0 TD per game
  • Only scored 10 points at Texas A&M

Georgia should win by double digits.

But here’s what the stats don’t tell you: Auburn at night in Jordan-Hare has produced some of the most inexplicable upsets in college football history. The “Kick Six” against Alabama. Stunning wins over LSU, Georgia, and other powerhouses who had no business losing.

Strange things happen here after dark.

What To Watch: Georgia With The Ball

Can Auburn’s elite run defense hold?

This is the marquee matchup of the game. Auburn allows only 82 rushing yards per game at 2.7 yards per carry. That’s legitimately elite. But Georgia rushes for 206.8 yards per game at 4.8 yards per carry with over 3 rushing touchdowns per game.

Something’s gotta give.

If Auburn stacks the box to stop the run, Georgia will torch them through the air. If they play honestly, Georgia will run them over. There’s no good answer for Auburn’s defensive coordinator.

The balance problem Georgia creates:

Georgia doesn’t just beat you one way. They beat you every way. 231.8 passing yards per game. 206.8 rushing yards per game. Perfectly balanced, impossibly difficult to defend.

Auburn has to pick its poison.

In a night game where crowd noise makes communication difficult, Georgia’s ability to run the ball becomes even more valuable. No audibles needed. Just line up and impose your will.

Watch the first down battle:

Georgia averages 24.8 first downs per game. Long, methodical drives that keep Auburn’s defense on the field and completely gassed by the fourth quarter.

If Georgia controls the clock and sustains drives, Auburn’s offense won’t get enough possessions to keep pace. And with Auburn averaging only 27.6 points per game, they need every possession they can get.

Can Georgia handle the noise?

Here’s Georgia’s biggest weakness: 40.8 penalty yards per game. False starts. Holding calls. Drive killers.

Now put them on the road, at night, in one of the loudest stadiums in America. Communication becomes nearly impossible. The crowd will be absolutely deafening on every Georgia snap.

If Georgia beats itself with penalties, Auburn has a chance.

What To Watch: Auburn With The Ball

Can Auburn throw the football at all?

This is the existential question for Hugh Freeze’s offense.

173.2 passing yards per game. Only 1.0 passing touchdown per game. Those are borderline FCS numbers in the modern SEC. You cannot win big games with that level of offensive production.

Georgia’s pass defense allows 231.2 yards per game, which means Auburn should be able to exploit it through the air. But “should” and “can” are two very different things.

If Auburn comes out scared and conservative in the passing game, they have no chance. If Hugh Freeze opens up the playbook and takes shots downfield, they might be able to keep Georgia honest enough to run the ball effectively.

The ghost of Texas A&M:

Auburn scored 10 points at Texas A&M. Ten.

That performance haunts everything about this game. Can Auburn’s offense show up when it matters most? Or will they shrink under the pressure and the lights?

The first quarter will tell you everything you need to know.

Ball security is victory:

Auburn’s best stat: 0.2 turnovers per game. Elite ball security. Georgia commits 1.4 turnovers per game.

If Auburn takes care of the football and Georgia coughs it up twice, suddenly you’ve got short fields and momentum shifts. That’s how upsets happen.

One Auburn turnover probably ends the game. Zero Auburn turnovers gives them a legitimate puncher’s chance.

Time of possession will decide this:

Auburn averages 342.2 total yards per game. That’s not enough to win a shootout.

So they have to shorten the game. Long, grinding drives that keep the clock moving and Georgia’s explosive offense on the sideline. Lean on the run game (169 yards per game, 2.4 TDs). Control the tempo.

If Auburn gets into a track meet, they lose by three touchdowns.

Hugh Freeze’s bag of tricks:

When coaches are fighting for their jobs at home under the lights, desperation breeds creativity.

Watch for fake punts, trick plays, ultra-aggressive fourth down calls. Hugh Freeze knows conventional football won’t beat Georgia. He needs chaos, misdirection, and a little bit of magic.

At night, Jordan-Hare is the perfect stage for desperation to become brilliance.

What Each Team Brings To This Party

Georgia’s Advantages:

  • Superior talent across the board
  • Balanced, explosive offense that can beat you any way
  • Already won at #15 Tennessee (proven road warriors)
  • Playoff desperation creates focus
  • Better coaching, better depth, better everything

Georgia’s Vulnerabilities:

  • Turnover prone (1.4 per game)
  • Penalties on the road in hostile environments
  • Might overlook Auburn after beating Kentucky
  • Playing at the most dangerous venue in America

Auburn’s Advantages:

  • Home field at night (worth 10-14 points in chaos)
  • Elite ball security (0.2 turnovers per game)
  • A stout run defense that can slow Georgia down
  • Nothing to lose, everything to gain
  • Desperation creates superhuman effort

Auburn’s Vulnerabilities:

  • Offensive ineptitude (96.4 fewer yards per game than Georgia)
  • Can’t throw the football consistently
  • Two-game losing streak in SEC play
  • The talent gap is real and significant

The matchup heavily favors Georgia.

But the environment heavily favors chaos. And chaos is Auburn’s best friend.

Final Score Prediction: Georgia 31, Auburn 20

But here’s what you need to understand.

This prediction is based on logic, statistics, and talent evaluation. Georgia is the better team. They should win.

But night games at Jordan-Hare Stadium don’t follow logic.

Here’s how I see it unfolding:

First Quarter: 7-7. Auburn comes out absolutely possessed. The crowd is deafening. Georgia struggles with false starts and communication. Auburn feeds off the energy.

Second Quarter: 17-13 Georgia. Talent starts to show, but Auburn refuses to fold. A trick play or defensive turnover keeps them within striking distance. Jordan-Hare is absolutely electric at halftime.

Third Quarter: 24-20 Georgia. Back and forth. Every Georgia score gets answered. The crowd never sits down. Auburn is in this thing.

Fourth Quarter: 31-20 Georgia. Superior depth and offensive firepower finally create separation. Auburn’s limited offense can’t generate enough to keep pace over 60 minutes.

That’s the logical outcome.

But don’t be shocked if Auburn wins outright. I give them a legitimate 30-35% chance to pull the upset. That’s not “Auburn might get lucky.” That’s “Auburn has a real path to victory if a few things break their way.”

Georgia fumbles twice. Hugh Freeze calls the game of his life. The crowd forces three false starts at crucial moments. Auburn’s defense gets a pick-six.

Suddenly, it’s 27-24 Auburn with 5 minutes left, and Georgia is shell-shocked.

It can happen. It has happened. This is Jordan-Hare at night.

What This Means For Hugh Freeze

If Auburn loses 31-20:

On paper, it looks “respectable.” A competitive home loss to #10 Georgia.

But Auburn fans won’t see it that way. They’ll see an offense that still can’t score more than 20 points against quality competition. They’ll see a wasted opportunity on the biggest stage with the entire fanbase behind them.

Top 5 hot seat status: Confirmed.

If Auburn wins:

Season saved. Freeze becomes an overnight hero. The “Hugh Freeze can’t win the big one” narrative gets torched. Suddenly, that top 5 hot seat talk disappears.

Until the subsequent loss.

The reality:

This game will define Hugh Freeze’s Auburn tenure one way or another. Win, and he buys himself a full season of goodwill. Lose, and the whispers become screams.

The Bottom Line

Georgia should win.

But Auburn, at home, at night, with everything on the line and nothing to lose, is the most dangerous version of Auburn that exists.

The smart money is on Georgia by 7-9 points.

The fun money is on Auburn and chaos.

See you Saturday night.

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USC’s Starting Center Kilian O’Connor Is Out vs Michigan’s Elite Defense. Here’s Why The Trojans’ 338 Passing Yards Per Game Still Wins Them The Game 28-21 (And Why The Injury Will Be The Go-To Excuse If They Lose)

Mark Haines on October 8, 2025

Lincoln Riley needs to win this game.

Not because USC’s season depends on it—though a loss would hurt their playoff chances. Riley needs to win because he’s in the middle of a three-game stretch that will define whether he’s a program-builder or just another coach who couldn’t handle the jump to a major conference. No. 15 Michigan at home, then at No. 16 Notre Dame, then at Nebraska. Three brutal tests in three weeks. The Cornhuskers aren’t ranked in the AP Poll, but they’re ranked 22nd by The New York Times and are receiving votes in multiple polls. Three chances to prove USC belongs in the Big Ten elite.

Win two of three, and the critical mass of Trojan supporters stays on board. Go 1-2 or worse, and the questions get louder.

So naturally, USC’s starting center Kilian O’Connor is out with a leg injury.

The Injury Factor: USC’s Built-In Excuse

O’Connor went down against Illinois and will miss multiple weeks, including this game. Losing your starting center, a team leader, and a critical piece of the offensive line against Michigan’s dominant defensive front isn’t ideal. Without O’Connor, pass protection timing gets disrupted. Run blocking schemes lose continuity. Michigan’s defensive front will relentlessly attack backup center J’Onre Reed.

If Riley loses, this injury becomes the convenient narrative. Not his fault. Not a coaching problem. Just bad injury luck at the worst possible time.

But here’s the problem: USC should still win this game.

Why USC Wins (Even Without O’Connor)

USC does what Michigan can’t; they hurt you through the air. 338 passing yards per game. 72.1% completion rate. 2.4 passing touchdowns per game. They’re efficient, explosive, and capable of scoring in bunches. Michigan’s secondary is vulnerable, allowing 206.4 passing yards per game at a 65.1% completion rate.

Even with a backup center, USC’s passing attack should be able to exploit Michigan’s weakness. Quick passes, screens, play-action to neutralize pressure—the scheme adapts. Expect 280-320 passing yards from USC.

Michigan’s run defense is elite, allowing just 77 yards per game at 2.4 yards per carry. USC will struggle on the ground. Expect 80-110 rushing yards. But USC doesn’t need to dominate the run game. They need their quarterback to pick apart Michigan’s secondary.

USC generates 370-430 total yards and scores 24-28 points.

Why Michigan Can’t Keep Pace

Michigan’s offense runs through one dimension: the ground game. 237.8 rushing yards per game at 6.4 yards per carry. It’s physical, effective Big Ten football. They’re getting healthier, too. Starting left guard Giovanni El-Hadi and tight end Hogan Hansen are both probable to return.

But their passing game is borderline nonexistent. Just 200.6 passing yards per game with a 58.8% completion rate and 0.6 passing touchdowns per game. That’s not a typo—they throw a touchdown pass roughly every other game.

USC knows this. They’ll stack the box, dare Michigan to throw, and force them into predictable situations. Michigan will grind out 190-220 rushing yards and score 20-24 points. They’ll control the time of possession and keep it competitive.

But when Michigan falls behind and needs to throw? They can’t keep pace.

The Verdict: Riley Survives Game One

USC wins, 28-21.

Michigan’s healthier offensive line helps them sustain drives and score consistently through the ground game. USC’s backup center struggles at times, limiting explosive plays. The game stays tight throughout four quarters.

But USC’s passing game talent—even compromised without O’Connor—proves too much for a Michigan team that can’t match their scoring through the air.

The wildcard: If Michigan’s defensive line overwhelms the backup center early and forces turnovers, their ball-control offense could grind out a stunning upset. But that’s unlikely.

More likely? Riley wins Game One of his three-game gauntlet, the stats hold up, and USC moves to 5-1. Then it’s on to the next test.

And if Riley loses? Don’t worry—the O’Connor injury will be the headline, not the performance. The excuse is pre-packaged. The narrative writes itself.

But Riley can’t afford to use it twice more in this stretch.

Three games. Three chances. One has to go right for the injury excuse to work. If USC goes 0-3 or 1-2 in this stretch, no amount of injury talk will save Riley from the questions about whether he can win the games that matter in the Big Ten.

Saturday is Game One. The clock is ticking.

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Clemson Is 1-3 And Desperate. North Carolina Can’t Score. Here’s Why Saturday’s ACC Matchup Will Be Ugly—And Why Clemson Wins Anyway

Mark Haines on October 3, 2025

Saturday’s ACC matchup is the college football equivalent of two drowning men fighting over a life vest.

Clemson entered 2025 as a conference championship favorite. North Carolina hired Bill Belichick—the greatest NFL coach of all time—to transform their program. Four games in, both teams are disasters. Clemson is 1-3 and reeling. UNC is 2-2 and can’t score points if their lives depended on it. One of these teams will emerge victorious. The other will spiral deeper into crisis mode.

Let me break down what the numbers reveal about both teams and why this game matters more than you might think.

Clemson: The Preseason Darling That Face-Planted

The Tigers were expected to compete for ACC titles and College Football Playoff spots.

Instead, they’ve lost three straight games and look completely lost. Their offense averages 365.3 yards per game—not terrible on paper, but they’re scoring just 18 points per game in losses. That’s the problem. Moving the ball doesn’t matter if you can’t finish drives. They’re turning the ball over 1.8 times per game while forcing only 1.3 takeaways. That -0.5 turnover margin is killing them. Their losses tell the whole story: 10-17 to LSU, 21-24 to Georgia Tech, and 21-34 to Syracuse. The only game they won was an underwhelming 27-16 victory over Troy.

Here’s what’s working:

  • Passing game: 249 yards per game, 1.5 TDs
  • Defense: Allowing 362 yards per game (solid, not spectacular)
  • Yards per play: 5.7 (respectable efficiency)

Here’s what’s broken:

  • Red zone execution: Can’t punch it in when it matters
  • Turnover battle: Losing it badly
  • Rushing attack: Just 116.3 yards per game, 1 TD per game
  • Confidence: Three straight losses will do that

This is a team with talent that’s completely underperforming expectations.

North Carolina: Bill Belichick Learns College Football Is Different

The Belichick hiring was supposed to change everything.

It hasn’t. UNC’s offense is an absolute train wreck—263.5 total yards per game. That’s not “struggling.” That’s historically bad for a Power 4 conference team. They’re averaging a pathetic 4.9 yards per play. For context, that’s the kind of efficiency you’d expect from a bottom-tier Group of 5 program. Their passing game generates just 150 yards per game. Their running game isn’t much better at 113.5 yards. They score 1.3 passing touchdowns per game and 1 rushing touchdown. Do the math: that’s 2.3 total touchdowns per game.

The losses are ugly:

  • TCU demolished them 48-14
  • UCF embarrassed them 34-9
  • Their two wins came against Charlotte (20-3) and Richmond (41-6)

Translation: They beat two teams they should have destroyed, but got destroyed by anyone decent.

The defense is actually better than you’d think—allowing 344.5 yards per game, which is actually superior to Clemson’s defense. But when your offense can’t sustain drives or score points, it doesn’t matter how well your defense plays. They’re even in the turnover battle at 0.0 per game, which means they’re not creating extra possessions to compensate for their offensive ineptitude.

Belichick is learning that NFL coaching genius doesn’t automatically translate when your quarterback can’t complete passes and your skill players can’t make plays.

The Matchup: Where Clemson Should Dominate

This game comes down to one simple fact: Clemson is better everywhere.

Their offense generates 101.8 more yards per game than North Carolina’s offense. Their 5.7 yards per play crushes UNC’s 4.9. Even though both defenses are similar, Clemson’s desperation, combined with the challenge of facing UNC’s anemic offense, creates the perfect storm for them to finally get back on track. North Carolina has shown zero ability to score against competent opponents. Clemson is competent. Barely, but competent.

The key advantages for Clemson:

  • Offensive firepower: They move the ball consistently
  • Efficiency edge: 0.8 yards per play advantage
  • Desperation: They NEED this win to salvage their season
  • Matchup: UNC can’t score on anyone

Where UNC could surprise:

  • Home field advantage
  • Clemson’s turnover problems continue
  • Belichick schemes something unexpected

But let’s be honest—UNC’s offense is too broken for any of that to matter.

My Prediction: Clemson 31, North Carolina 14

Clemson wins, and it’s not close.

They’re playing a team that averages 11.5 points in losses and can barely move the football. Even with Clemson’s struggles, they have too much talent and too much desperation to lose this game. They’ll control possession, limit UNC’s already-limited scoring opportunities, and finally find the end zone enough times to win comfortably. North Carolina will score one touchdown on a broken play or short field, add a field goal or garbage-time score, and otherwise look completely overmatched.

The real story isn’t who wins this game.

The real story is what happens next. Clemson gets a much-needed confidence boost but remains far below preseason expectations. They’re not competing for championships—they’re just trying to make a bowl game at this point. For North Carolina, this loss (and it will be a loss) raises serious questions about whether Belichick can actually fix this mess. NFL coaching legends don’t mean anything in college football if you can’t recruit, develop talent, and put together a functional offensive system.

Saturday’s game is must-watch television for all the wrong reasons—two disappointing teams desperately trying not to drown.

One will survive. The other will sink deeper.

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Two Coaches, Two Seasons: How Cal vs San Diego State Became A Tale of Opposite Trajectories

Mark Haines on September 18, 2025

Cal coach Justin Wilcox started this season at #15 on our Coaches Hot Seat Rankings. This week, he sits at #41.

Cal supporters were calling for his firing. Eight years of mediocrity had worn thin on a fanbase that remembered the Jeff Tedford glory days. The move to the ACC felt like a desperate attempt to save a program—and a coach—that had lost its way.

Three games into the 2025 season, Wilcox isn’t just off the hot seat.

He’s got Cal positioned as a legitimate ACC championship contender.

The Numbers Don’t Lie

Let’s start with what actually matters: results.

2024 Cal: 6-7 record, including a bowl loss. Mediocre on both sides of the ball.

2025 Cal: 3-0 with statement wins, including a road victory at Oregon State and a home domination of Big Ten’s Minnesota.

But here’s where it gets interesting—the statistical transformation is unprecedented.

The Defensive Revolution:

  • Total Defense: 421.4 yards allowed (2024) → 280.0 yards allowed (2025)
  • That’s 141+ fewer yards per game—one of the most dramatic single-season improvements in college football
  • Rush Defense: 109.8 yards allowed → 82.3 yards allowed (-27.5 yards, -25.0%)
  • Pass Defense: 227.6 yards allowed → 197.7 yards allowed (-29.9 yards, -13.1%)

The Offensive Evolution:

  • Scoring: 23.2 ppg → 24.3 ppg
  • Total Offense: 380.1 yards → 387.7 yards
  • Passing: 258.6 yards → 269.0 yards (+10.4 yards)

This isn’t a marginal improvement. This is a systematic transformation.

The Schedule That Changes Everything

Here’s where Wilcox caught lightning in a bottle: Cal’s ACC scheduling rotation.

Teams Cal AVOIDS in 2025: Clemson, Miami, Florida State, Georgia Tech, NC State, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, Wake Forest.

Teams Cal PLAYS in ACC action:

  • @ Boston College
  • vs Duke (ACC home opener)
  • vs North Carolina (Bill Belichick’s debut season)
  • @ Virginia Tech
  • vs Virginia
  • @ Louisville (their toughest road test)
  • @ Stanford (Big Game rivalry)
  • vs SMU (potential title game preview)

Look at that list again.

Cal avoided every single ACC powerhouse except SMU—and they get the Mustangs at home in the regular season finale.

The Hot Seat Parallel That Should Terrify Sean Lewis

While Wilcox has engineered one of the most dramatic coaching turnarounds in recent memory, his Week 4 opponent represents the opposite trajectory.

Sean Lewis at San Diego State:

  • Started at #41 on our Hot Seat Rankings
  • Now sitting at #17 and climbing
  • His “AztecFAST” offense has somehow gotten WORSE in Year 2

The Numbers:

  • 2024 SDSU: 19.5 points per game (terrible)
  • 2025 SDSU: 15.5 points per game (historically bad)
  • Point Differential: -8.3 (2024) → -3.0 (2025)*

*Only improved because their defense got dramatically better while the offense cratered

The Fan Revolt: Season ticket sales down 33%. The program handed out 4,000 free tickets to get bodies in seats for Cal’s visit. Lewis is exhibiting all the warning signs of a coach about to be fired mid-season.

Saturday’s Matchup: Cal (24.3 ppg, elite defense) vs SDSU (15.5 ppg, historically bad offense)

This should be a statement win that propels Cal toward ACC title contention.

The Path to Charlotte

Here’s the reality that nobody wants to talk about: Cal has a legitimate path to the ACC Championship Game.

The New Format: No divisions. The two teams with the best ACC conference records play for the title.

Cal’s Realistic Projection:

  • Likely Wins (5 games): Boston College, Duke, Virginia Tech, Virginia, Stanford
  • Toss-ups (2 games): North Carolina (Belichick’s first year chaos), Louisville (road)
  • Statement Game (1 game): SMU at home in finale

Path to 7-1 in ACC play: Beat the teams you should beat, split the toss-ups, and upset SMU at home.

Path to 6-2 in ACC play: Same as above, but lose one of the “sure things.”

Either record likely gets Cal to Charlotte.

The Transformation Timeline

  • January 2025: Cal supporters want Wilcox fired
  • March 2025: Wilcox at #15 on Hot Seat Rankings
  • September 2025: Cal 3-0 with the most improved defense in college football
  • December 2025: Playing for an ACC Championship?

This is what great coaching looks like when everything clicks.

Wilcox didn’t just make cosmetic changes. He fundamentally transformed the identity of his program. The defense that was giving up 421+ yards per game in 2024 is now allowing just 280 yards in 2025—that’s the kind of year-over-year improvement that typically takes multiple recruiting cycles and scheme overhauls.

The Foster Parallel

Remember our piece on DeShaun Foster’s situation at UCLA? The parallels between Foster’s final days and Sean Lewis’s current predicament at San Diego State are striking:

  • Initial optimism followed by spectacular failure
  • Gimmicky offensive systems that don’t work
  • Fan revolts and administrative pressure
  • Players transferring out

But Wilcox represents the opposite trajectory.

Sometimes a coach on the hot seat doesn’t need to be fired—he needs to be challenged. The move to the ACC, the pressure from fans, the make-or-break moment seemed to unlock something in Wilcox that eight years at Cal hadn’t revealed.

The Bottom Line

Justin Wilcox started 2025 fighting for his job.

He might end it fighting for a conference championship.

The statistical improvements aren’t flukes. The schedule isn’t luck—it’s opportunity. The wins aren’t accidents—they’re the result of systematic program transformation.

Cal’s defense has improved by 141 yards per game. Their offense is more efficient. Their quarterback play is steady. Their coaching is sharp.

Most importantly, they avoid Clemson, Miami, and the ACC’s elite tier while getting most of their challenging games at home.

Prediction: Cal goes 6-2 or 7-1 in ACC play and plays for the conference championship.

Hot Seat Status: Wilcox isn’t just off our rankings—he’s building a program that could compete at the highest level for years to come.

Sometimes, the coach everyone wants fired is exactly the coach who needed the proper support and circumstances to succeed.

Justin Wilcox just found his.

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Oklahoma’s #6 Hot Seat Coach Has 12 Games To Save His Job. Michigan Is Game #2.

Mark Haines on September 3, 2025

Here’s what everyone in college football knows but won’t say out loud.

Brent Venables is coaching for his career on Saturday. Not his season. His career. When you’re ranked #6 out of 136 coaches on the Coaches Hot Seat rankings, every game becomes a referendum on your future.

The Math Is Simple:

  • 22-17 record in three seasons at Oklahoma
  • Two losing seasons out of three
  • #6 on the hot seat rankings (danger zone territory)
  • A schedule ESPN calls the toughest in college football

Meanwhile, Sherrone Moore sits comfortably at #36 in our rankings. That’s the difference between “we’re watching” and “we’re planning your replacement.”

Here’s What Makes Saturday Fascinating:

Oklahoma went nuclear in the offseason. They brought in 21 transfer portal players, hired a new offensive coordinator, and landed John Mateer—the quarterback who led all of college football with 44 total touchdowns last season.

Michigan countered with the #1 recruit in the country, Bryce Underwood, who already proved he belongs by going 21/31 for 251 yards in his debut.

The Stakes:

For Venables, this is his best shot at an early statement win before facing eight projected top-25 opponents. Win, and the complete program overhaul looks genius. Lose, and the whispers become roars.

For Moore, this is about proving their offensive transformation can execute against proven competition.

The Truth:

Desperate coaches make dangerous opponents. When your job depends on 12 games, every snap gets magnified. Every decision gets scrutinized.

Saturday tells us whether that desperation breaks Oklahoma or brings out its best.

We Track Coaching Pressure So You See The Warning Signs First

You just read the kind of analysis that predicted coaching changes before they happened. While other publications wait for the obvious, we identify the warning signs early.

The Coaches Hot Seat newsletter delivers:

  • Weekly hot seat rankings with data-driven predictions
  • Inside analysis on coaching moves before they’re announced
  • The real financial stories behind hiring and firing decisions
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Because college football moves fast.

And the programs that survive are the ones that see what’s coming next—not the ones caught reacting to what already happened.

Click Here To Subscribe to Coaches Hot Seat Newsletter

Get the analysis that matters before it becomes obvious to everyone else.

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Offense vs. Defense: Georgia and Texas Face Off in the SEC Conference Championship Game

Mark Haines on December 6, 2024

Tomorrow night at Mercedes-Benz Stadium, two college football titans collide in the SEC Conference Championship game. It’s a showdown that transcends the scoreboard; Georgia, the reigning powerhouse with its electrifying offense led by Carson Beck, takes on a Texas team rewriting the rules of modern football with a defense that has defied all expectations. In an age dominated by high-flying offenses, the Longhorns have forged a defensive identity that could prove revolutionary. As these contrasting approaches meet, the question looms: Can a defensive renaissance overcome the offensive evolution that has defined this era of the sport?

The Evolution Game: How Texas Built a Defense for Modern Football

The numbers tell a story, but not the one you’d expect. In the gleaming, antiseptic confines of Mercedes-Benz Stadium, two football programs will meet tomorrow night, each representing a different answer to the same question: How do you win in an era when offense has seemingly broken the sport?

Let’s Break It Down:

Overall Records and Rankings

  • Texas: 11-1 record, ranked #2
  • Georgia: 10-2 record, ranked #5

Texas has a slight edge in overall record and ranking heading into the championship game.

Offensive Performance

Passing Game

  • Texas: 274.6 yards per game, 33 touchdowns, 9 interceptions
  • Georgia: 297.0 yards per game, 28 touchdowns, 12 interceptions

Georgia has a slight advantage in passing yards, but Texas has been more efficient with more touchdowns and fewer interceptions.

Rushing Game

  • Texas: 175.5 yards per game, 21 touchdowns
  • Georgia: 128.3 yards per game, 22 touchdowns

Though touchdown production is similar, Texas has a significant edge in rushing yards.

Total Offense

  • Texas: 450.1 yards per game
  • Georgia: 425.3 yards per game

Texas holds a slight advantage in total offensive production.

Defensive Performance

Against the Pass

  • Texas: 143.7 yards allowed per game, 3 touchdowns allowed
  • Georgia: 196.3 yards allowed per game, 12 touchdowns allowed

Texas has been significantly stronger against the pass.

Against the Run

  • Texas: 103.5 yards allowed per game, 9 touchdowns allowed
  • Georgia: 135.8 yards allowed per game, 14 touchdowns allowed

Texas again shows superiority in run defense.

Total Defense

  • Texas: 247.2 yards allowed per game
  • Georgia: 332.1 yards allowed per game

Texas has a clear advantage in overall defensive performance.

Key Players

Texas

  • QB Quinn Ewers: 2307 yards, 24 TDs, 7 INTs
  • RB Tre Wisner: 812 rushing yards, 3 TDs
  • WR Matthew Golden: 576 receiving yards, 8 TDs

Georgia

  • QB Carson Beck: 3429 yards, 28 TDs, 12 INTs
  • RB Trevor Etienne: 477 rushing yards, 7 TDs
  • WR Arian Smith: 709 receiving yards, 4 TDs

Strength of Schedule

  • Texas SOS: 4.51 (29th)
  • Georgia SOS: 5.79 (15th)

Both teams have faced tough SEC competition. Notable results:

  • Texas defeated Oklahoma 34-3 and lost to Georgia 30-15 earlier in the season
  • Georgia lost to Alabama 41-34 and Ole Miss 28-10, but defeated Texas 30-15

What do all of these stats tell us about the game?

Georgia’s answer has been more offense. Their quarterback, Carson Beck, has thrown for 3,429 yards in a season that would have seemed impossible just a decade ago. The Bulldogs have embraced the modern game’s aerial evolution, turning their once-conservative offense into a high-flying circus that treats the forward pass not as a risk but as their primary currency of war.

But Texas presents the more fascinating case study. In an age when defensive coordinators have become the game’s equivalent of medieval archers—hopelessly firing arrows at increasingly sophisticated war machines—the Longhorns have done something remarkable: They’ve built a defense that works.

The numbers are staggering in their improbability: Three passing touchdowns allowed, all season. In the modern SEC, this is like finding a hedge fund that shorted the housing market in 2007. It simply shouldn’t be possible.

“Everyone thought defense was dead,” a Power Five defensive coordinator said anonymously. “What Texas has done… it’s like they’ve found a market inefficiency in football.”

That inefficiency manifests in the most basic statistical comparison: Texas allows 247.2 yards per game. Georgia, with all its championship pedigree and five-star recruits, gives up 332.1. The gap between them – roughly 85 yards – is the difference between a good defense and one rewriting our understanding of what’s possible in modern college football.

Quinn Ewers, Texas’s quarterback, puts up numbers that would have made him a Heisman frontrunner in 2013. In 2024, they almost feel quaint: 2,307 yards, 24 touchdowns. A decade ago, this would have been the story. Now, it’s almost an afterthought to what Texas has built on the other side of the ball.

The irony isn’t lost on anyone following college football’s evolution. Texas, the program that once gave us Vince Young and helped usher in the era of the dual-threat quarterback, has become the last best hope for defensive football. They’ve taken the principles that once made the SEC the nation’s preeminent conference—suffocating defense, controlled offense, and field position—and modernized them for an age when most programs have abandoned them entirely.

Georgia beat this Texas team earlier this year, 30-15. But that game feels like it was played in a different season, maybe even a different era. Since then, Georgia has shown cracks in its armor – losses to Alabama and Ole Miss that suggested maybe, just maybe, the offensive revolution has its limits.

Tomorrow night’s game isn’t just about a championship. It’s about two competing theories of football evolution. Georgia represents the conventional wisdom: that offense is king, that the forward pass has fundamentally altered the sport’s DNA, and that the only way to win is to score more than your opponent can manage.

Texas represents something else: the idea that maybe defense isn’t dead, that with the right combination of scheme, talent, and organizational philosophy, you can still win the way teams used to win, and that innovation in football doesn’t always mean more points, yards, or everything.

The safe bet is on Georgia. Experience matters in games like this. Championship DNA is real. The ability to perform under pressure isn’t just a cliché – it’s a measurable advantage in high-stakes situations.

But there’s something about this Texas team that feels like it’s tapping into something more fundamental about football. They’ve found a way to make defense work in an era when defense isn’t supposed to work.

Tomorrow night, we’ll find out if that’s enough.

Game Prediction Based on The Noise Trade

In high-frequency trading, there’s a phenomenon known as “noise.” It happens when emotional reactions and human behavior temporarily distort the underlying mathematics of the market. Smart traders don’t fight noise—they account for it in their models.

Tomorrow night in Atlanta, we will witness a real-world experiment in football’s version of noise trading. The mathematics remain pristine: Texas’s defense has discovered something fundamental about modern football, reducing opposing offenses to a series of low-probability bets, like a card counter who has figured out how to limit the house edge. The numbers – 247.2 yards allowed per game, three passing touchdowns all season – aren’t just statistics. They’re proof of concept.

But Mercedes-Benz Stadium won’t be a sterile laboratory. Texas’s returned ticket allotment means the building will be packed with Georgia fans, 71,000 traders all betting emotionally on the home team. In financial terms, this is the quintessential “noise trade” – a factor that shouldn’t matter to the underlying mathematics but matters to how those mathematics play out in the real world.

Here’s what makes this fascinating: Texas’s defensive innovation isn’t like the complex derivatives that collapsed under pressure in 2008. It’s more like the simplicity of card counting – a fundamental mathematical advantage that works regardless of the casino’s ambient noise. Their defenders don’t need elaborate verbal communications to maintain perfect leverage, just like a card counter doesn’t need quiet to keep their count.

Quinn Ewers will face the noise directly. His 2,307 passing yards and 24 touchdowns were accumulated in environments where his offensive system could operate at peak efficiency. Tomorrow night, he’ll be trading in a hostile market. But Texas’s offense, like their defense, is built on fundamentals rather than complexity. They don’t try to arbitrage small advantages through elaborate pre-snap adjustments. They take what the market gives them and execute with precision.

Carson Beck and his 3,429 passing yards represent the conventional wisdom of modern football – that offense always wins and that you can score your way out of any problem. He’ll have the crowd behind him, but he’ll still face the same mathematical problem that has stumped every other quarterback: how do you generate explosive plays against a defense that has systematically removed them from the equation?

The smart money says the noise traders—Georgia’s crowd—will impact the market enough to matter. And they will. Texas’s offensive efficiency will drop, and its defensive communication will face challenges it hasn’t seen all season. The math says Texas should win by two touchdowns, but the noise suggests something closer.

Final Score: Texas 27, Georgia 23

But watch what happens in the fourth quarter. Suppose Texas’s defensive innovation is as fundamental as the numbers suggest. In that case, we’ll see something remarkable: a system so mathematically sound that it works even when the market is most irrational. That’s not just a championship victory – it’s proof that someone has solved a problem everyone else thought was unsolvable.

The noise traders will go home disappointed. And by next season, every program in America will be trying to reverse engineer what Texas has built, just like every casino eventually had to change its rules once enough people learned to count cards. Innovation, in football as in markets, has a way of becoming conventional wisdom – right up until the next revolution begins.

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Big Ten Conference Championship Preview: Oregon vs Penn State

Mark Haines on December 5, 2024

We’ve broken down both teams – Oregon vs Penn State for the Big Ten Conference Championship Game. We’re calling this game:

The Perfect Season Meets the Perfect Defense: A Tale of Two Programs

In the high-stakes world of college football, where billions of dollars flow through palatial training facilities and coaches’ contracts read like small-nation GDPs, two programs have found remarkably different paths to the same destination. The Oregon Ducks, with their Silicon Valley-meets-Saturday-afternoon approach to offense, carry the weight of an unblemished 12-0 record. Their opponents, the Penn State Nittany Lions, have turned defensive football into a kind of performance art, yielding yards with all the generosity of a loan shark.

The numbers tell a story that Vegas oddsmakers have been struggling to decode. Oregon’s offense, orchestrated by the Oklahoma transfer Dillon Gabriel (who has thrown for 3,275 yards with the precision of a surgeon), generates 448.5 yards per game – exactly 5.7 yards more than Penn State. In the multi-billion dollar business of college football, that’s the equivalent of finding a penny in your couch cushions.

But here’s where it gets interesting. Let’s break it down:

Team Comparison: Penn State vs Oregon (2024 Season)

Overall Performance

Oregon has had a perfect season so far, boasting a 12-0 record, while Penn State has had an impressive 11-1 record. Both teams have shown strong performances throughout the season, earning their spots in the Big Ten Championship game.

Offensive Comparison

  1. Passing Game:
    • Oregon: 277.6 yards per game, 24 touchdowns, 6 interceptions
    • Penn State: 248.2 yards per game, 24 touchdowns, 6 interceptions

Oregon has a slight edge in passing yards, but both teams have identical touchdown and interception numbers.

  1. Rushing Game:
    • Oregon: 170.9 yards per game, 27 touchdowns
    • Penn State: 194.7 yards per game, 26 touchdowns

Penn State has a more productive rushing attack, averaging about 24 more yards per game than Oregon.

  1. Total Offense:
    • Oregon: 448.5 yards per game
    • Penn State: 442.8 yards per game

Both teams have very similar total offensive production, with Oregon slightly ahead.

Defensive Comparison

  1. Passing Defense:
    • Oregon: 171.5 yards allowed per game, 10 interceptions
    • Penn State: 169.8 yards allowed per game, 12 interceptions

Penn State has a marginally better pass defense and has forced more interceptions.

  1. Rushing Defense:
    • Oregon: 112.3 yards allowed per game
    • Penn State: 97.0 yards allowed per game

Penn State’s rush defense is significantly stronger, allowing about 15 fewer yards per game.

  1. Total Defense:
    • Oregon: 283.8 yards allowed per game
    • Penn State: 266.8 yards allowed per game

Penn State’s overall defense is more effective, allowing 17 fewer total yards per game.

Key Players

Oregon:

  • QB Dillon Gabriel: 3275 passing yards, 24 TDs, 6 INTs
  • RB Jordan James: 1166 rushing yards, 13 TDs
  • WR Tez Johnson: 685 receiving yards, 9 TDs

Penn State:

  • QB Drew Allar: 2668 passing yards, 18 TDs, 5 INTs
  • RB Nicholas Singleton: 733 rushing yards, 7 TDs
  • TE Tyler Warren: 978 receiving yards, 6 TDs

Special Teams

Both teams have solid kicking games, with Oregon slightly more accurate on field goals (78.9% vs 72.2% for Penn State).

Analysis

Penn State’s defensive coordinator has built something akin to a maximum-security prison for opposing offenses. They allow just 97 yards rushing per game – the number that makes old-school Big Ten coaches misty-eyed. It’s as if they’ve solved a mathematical equation that’s puzzled defensive minds for generations: how to stop the run and the pass without sacrificing.

The Nittany Lions’ Drew Allar, with his 2,668 passing yards, isn’t going to win any statistical beauty contests against Gabriel. However, in Tyler Warren, his tight end with 978 receiving yards, he’s found something even more valuable in modern football: reliability. Warren has become to Penn State what a good hedge fund is to a nervous investor – a safe harbor in turbulent times.

Oregon’s Jordan James, meanwhile, has turned running the football into a kind of performance art, accumulating 1,166 yards with the kind of efficiency that would make a German engineer proud. Every time he touches the ball, the advanced analytics computers at Oregon (and there are many) calculate a thousand possible outcomes. Most of them end with James in the end zone.

The kicking game is like comparing two slightly different shades of beige. Oregon converts 78.9% of its field goals, and Penn State 72.2%. Those percentage points might as well be gold dust in a game this evenly matched.

What we have here is more than a football game. It’s a clash of philosophical approaches to the same problem: how to move an oddly shaped ball across 100 yards of artificial turf. Oregon has perfected the art of offensive efficiency, turning each drive into a masterclass in modern football theory. Penn State has instead chosen to perfect the art of denial, turning its defense into a kind of mathematical proof that yards can be subtracted.

The result should be something akin to watching quantum physics play out on a football field – a perfect offense meeting an immovable defense with millions of dollars and countless dreams hanging in the balance.

Ultimately, this game will likely be decided not by the statistical margins that separate these teams – margins so thin you could slide them under a door – but by something far more primitive: which team can impose their will on the other. It’s the kind of story that makes college football the multi-billion-dollar theatre it is.

The Mathematics of Momentum: Game Prediction

If you spend enough time around Las Vegas bookmakers – those modern-day oracles who’ve turned point spreads into a science more precise than meteorology – you’ll learn that football games are just elaborate probability problems dressed up in school colors and fight songs. The Oregon-Penn State matchup presents the mathematical puzzle that keeps professional gamblers up at night.

Let’s break this down the way a Wall Street quant might approach their morning trading strategy:

Oregon’s offense, averaging 35.2 points per game, operates with the statistical consistency that would make a Six Sigma black belt weep with joy. The number feels almost artificially precise like it was generated by the same algorithms that power high-frequency trading.

Penn State’s defense, meanwhile, has turned opposing offenses into case studies in futility, holding teams to yardage totals that look more like batting averages. Their 266.8 yards allowed per game is the number that defensive coordinators frame and hang on their office walls.

But here’s where it gets interesting: Oregon’s Dillon Gabriel has been trading at a premium in the college football talent market. His 3,275 passing yards represent a 22.7% premium over Penn State’s Drew Allar – the kind of spread that would trigger arbitrage opportunities in any other market.

The turnover margins (+0.4 vs +0.6) are so close they’re practically a rounding error in the grand scheme. It’s like comparing the performance of two index funds that track slightly different versions of the same market.

When you feed all these numbers into the kind of predictive models that football analytics departments spend millions developing, you get something that looks less like a definitive answer and more like a probability distribution. But if you push me to put a number on it – the way a hedge fund manager eventually has to decide whether to buy or sell – I’ll say this:

Penn State 31, Oregon 24.

Red Zone – key to the game From B10 & Beyond @B10Beyond on X

“Found the Oregon weakness. Been rummaging through stats last couple of days when I can. Penn State is ranked 20th in Red Zone Defense. Fair. Oregon is ranked 73rd in Red Zone Defense. Not very good. If you can get down there, there’s a REALLY good chance you are scoring.“

It’s the kind of prediction that makes you understand why gambling is a multi-billion-dollar industry. Because in the end, we’re all just trying to put numbers on the unknowable, to quantify the human element that makes sports so captivating in the first place.

Make sure to catch the complete breakdown of all Conference Championship Games on the Targeting Winners podcast dropping Friday Afternoon on Spotify, Apple, or wherever you get your podcasts.

Got any thoughts on this game or preview? Let us know here.

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The Numbers That Don’t Add Up – Mountain West Championship Preview

Mark Haines on December 4, 2024

Boise State and UNLV meet Friday night for the Mountain West Championship.

In the pristine December air of Las Vegas, two college football programs are about to collide in a way that defies conventional wisdom. One is Boise State, the upstart powerhouse that has been terrorizing the Mountain West Conference for years by systematically destroying opponents. The other is UNLV, a program that was a statistical asterisk just two years ago. It is the kind of team that makes gamblers rich by betting against them.

The transformation of UNLV under Barry Odom is the kind of story that makes sports executives nervous. It suggests that all their complex formulas for success – the million-dollar facilities, the decades of tradition, the elaborate recruiting networks – might matter less than finding the right person with the right idea at the right time. Odom, a defensive specialist with a track record of raising football programs from the dead, has turned UNLV into something that would have been unthinkable 24 months ago: a legitimate threat to Boise State’s dominance.

The numbers tell a story that feels almost too neat to be true. Boise State, led by their own coaching prodigy Spencer Danielson, has been a machine of efficiency: 478.3 yards per game, 40.6 points scored, and a running back named Ashton Jeanty who seems to have been engineered in a laboratory specifically to break tackles (2,288 rushing yards, 28 touchdowns, and the kind of statistics that make NFL scouts reach for their phones). Their quarterback, Maddux Madsen, plays with the kind of careful precision (21 touchdowns, 3 interceptions) that makes offensive coordinators sleep well at night.

But here’s where it gets interesting: UNLV, the traditional underdog, has built something suspiciously similar. Their offense, anchored by the dual-threat quarterback Hajj-Malik Williams, puts up 434 yards and 38.7 points per game. It’s less than Boise State, but not by the margin you’d expect from a program that was recently college football’s equivalent of a penny stock.

Allegiant Stadium, site of the Mountain West Championship game

The real story, though, lies in a number that doesn’t show up in the standard statistics: 22 versus 14. That’s the turnover differential between these teams, with UNLV’s defense showing a predatory instinct for creating chaos that their more established opponents haven’t matched. It’s the kind of number that makes you wonder if there’s something more interesting happening here than just a good football team playing another good football team.

When these teams met earlier this season, Boise State won 29-24, the close score that tells you everything and nothing about what might happen in a rematch. It’s the type of game that Las Vegas oddsmakers hate – when the traditional metrics suggest one outcome, but the intangibles point to another.

The wild card in this is special teams, UNLV’s secret weapon. Their kicker, Caden Chittenden, has been converting field goals at an 80.6% clip, the kind of reliability that wins championships. And then there’s Jai’Den Thomas, who has turned kick returns into a form of performance art, including one touchdown that made highlight reels across the country.

As the sun sets over Las Vegas on December 6th, these two teams will take the field for a game that feels less like a conference championship and more like a referendum on how football programs are built. On one side, you have Boise State, with its decade of dominance and its assembly-line production of victories. On the other side is UNLV, the rapid risers who have turned chaos into a competitive advantage.

The beauty of this matchup lies in its unpredictability. It’s the kind of game that makes you question everything you think you know about college football – about tradition, momentum, and the way success is supposed to look. And maybe that’s exactly what makes it worth watching.

Let’s Break It Down – Season Overview

Boise State has had a remarkable season, losing only to Oregon in a close 37-34 contest early in the year. The Broncos have since reeled off 10 straight victories, including a 29-24 win over UNLV in their regular-season meeting. UNLV, under second-year head coach Barry Odom, has engineered a dramatic turnaround, with their only losses coming against Syracuse and Boise State.

Offensive Firepower

Both teams bring potent offenses to the championship game:

Boise State

  • Averaging 478.3 yards and 40.6 points per game
  • Balanced attack with 224.8 passing yards and 253.5 rushing yards per game
  • QB Maddux Madsen: 2556 passing yards, 21 TDs, 3 INTs
  • RB Ashton Jeanty: 2288 rushing yards, 28 TDs, 102 receiving yards, 1 receiving TD

UNLV

  • Averaging 434 yards and 38.7 points per game
  • Run-heavy offense with 254.1 rushing yards per game
  • QB Hajj-Malik Williams: 1735 passing yards, 17 TDs, 4 INTs, 768 rushing yards, 9 rushing TDs
  • RB Jai’Den Thomas: 832 rushing yards, 7 TDs, 85 receiving yards, 1 receiving TD

Defensive Battle

While both teams are known for their offensive prowess, their defenses have also played crucial roles in their success:

  • Boise State allows 364.8 total yards per game
  • UNLV gives up 349.3 total yards per game
  • The Rebels have been more opportunistic, forcing 22 turnovers compared to the Broncos’ 14

Special Teams Edge

UNLV holds a slight advantage in special teams:

  • Kicker Caden Chittenden: 25/31 FGs (80.6%), 51/52 PATs (98.1%)
  • Punt returner Jacob De Jesus: 20 returns, 163 yards, 8.2 avg
  • Kick returner Jai’Den Thomas: 3 returns, 124 yards, 1 TD

Coaching Matchup

This game features an intriguing coaching battle between Boise State’s Spencer Danielson and UNLV’s Barry Odom:

  • Danielson (2nd year): 14-2 overall record, faith-based approach, emphasizes player development
  • Odom (2nd year at UNLV): 19-7 record at UNLV, defensive expertise, known for quick program turnarounds

Key Factors

  1. Boise State’s rushing attack vs. UNLV’s run defense
  2. UNLV’s ability to force turnovers against a typically careful Boise State offense
  3. Special teams play, particularly in the return game
  4. Quarterback play under pressure in a high-stakes environment

Prediction – The Math of Inevitability

Suppose you were building a model to predict this game’s outcome. In that case, you’d probably focus on the obvious: Boise State’s superior yardage, their higher scoring average, and their previous victory over UNLV. You’d be doing exactly what most analysts do – and missing the point entirely.

The hidden pattern here lies in the convergence of three numbers that nobody’s talking about: UNLV’s +8 turnover margin advantage, their 80.6% field goal conversion rate, and the 5-point margin of their previous loss to Boise State. When you map these data points against similar conference championship games over the past decade, an interesting pattern emerges – teams with superior turnover margins and reliable kicking games tend to outperform their regular season results in championship settings.

The Las Vegas factor is another variable that spreadsheets can’t capture. UNLV isn’t just playing at home; they’re playing in a city that’s redefined itself more times than any other in America. Vegas’s team should do the same.

The smart money says Boise State by a touchdown. The numbers that don’t make the headlines suggest something else: UNLV 31, Boise State 27.

It’s the kind of prediction that makes traditional analysts uncomfortable – which is precisely why it might be right.

What’s your take on this game? Let us know here

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