Blog Article

Oklahoma Football 2025: Is This Brent Venables’ Last Stand?

Mark Haines on June 20, 2025

Oklahoma football’s Brent Venables is officially coaching for his job.

After two losing seasons in three years at one of college football’s most prestigious programs, the Oklahoma head coach finds himself in an impossible position. The Sooners’ 6-7 debut in the SEC wasn’t just disappointing—it was a wake-up call that sent shockwaves through Norman and forced the program into crisis mode.

According to 247Sports’ Brad Crawford, Venables enters the 2025 season on the nation’s hottest seat, facing more pressure than any other coach in college football. Oklahoma’s win total at DraftKings sits at just 6.5 wins. At most programs, that might be acceptable. But Oklahoma isn’t most programs.

This is a program with 950 wins, seven national championships, and zero tolerance for mediocrity.

The Numbers Don’t Lie—Venables Is Running Out of Time

Here’s what Venables is up against:

  • A 22-17 overall record in three seasons
  • Two losing seasons (6-7 in both 2022 and 2024)
  • A 2-6 debut in SEC play that left Oklahoma tied for 13th in the standings
  • The program’s worst scoring offense since 1998 (24.0 points per game)
  • A schedule that ESPN ranks as the toughest in college football

“I know the buyout is considerable, but if he suffers a losing season for a third time in four years at Oklahoma, the Sooners are going to be looking for a new head coach after the 2025 season,” Crawford said.

The math is simple. Another losing season equals a coaching change.

Oklahoma Went All-In on a Complete Program Overhaul

When faced with the potential collapse of its program, Oklahoma did something remarkable.

They didn’t just make incremental changes. They burned everything to the ground and started over. The university hired a third-party consultant to evaluate every aspect of the program. What followed was nothing short of revolutionary:

  • Hired two new coordinators (Ben Arbuckle on offense, defensive restructuring)
  • Installed an entirely new front office with seven staffers
  • Brought in former NFL executive Jim Nagy as general manager
  • Added 21 transfer portal players to address critical weaknesses
  • Even hired a new trainer with NFL connections

This wasn’t just roster tinkering. This was organizational warfare against mediocrity.

The crown jewel of this transformation? Landing John Mateer, the No. 1 quarterback in the transfer portal.

John Mateer: The $34.9 Million Question

Everything hinges on one player.

Mateer arrives from Washington State with ridiculous production: 3,139 passing yards, 29 passing touchdowns, 826 rushing yards, and 15 rushing touchdowns in 2024. His 44 total touchdowns led all of college football—more than Heisman finalist Cam Ward (41) and Clemson’s Cade Klubnik.

But here’s what makes Mateer special: he’s reuniting with offensive coordinator Ben Arbuckle, the mastermind behind Washington State’s explosive offense. The chemistry is already there. The system is proven. The question is whether it can translate to the brutal SEC gauntlet.

“John Mateer, the Washington State quarterback transfer—he’s gotta be a guy. He can’t just be someone that comes in there and has 20 touchdown passes. He’s gotta have 30 to 32 touchdown passes for Oklahoma to be a major contender and for Brent Venables to get off the nation’s hottest seat.”

No pressure, right?

Venables Made One Smart Decision: He’s Calling Defense Again

When your job is on the line, you go back to what made you successful.

Venables built his reputation as one of college football’s elite defensive coordinators. At Clemson, his defenses were legendary. At Oklahoma, the defense has actually been the bright spot—allowing just 21.5 points per game in 2024 and ranking 29th nationally in scoring defense.

So when defensive coordinator Zach Alley bolted for West Virginia, Venables made the obvious choice. He’s taking back defensive play-calling duties.

“Why am I gonna call the defense? Because I’m good at it,” Venables said. “I’m confident in it.”

This move accomplishes three things:

  • It puts the defense in the hands of a proven coordinator
  • It frees up resources to focus on offensive improvements
  • It plays to Venables’ greatest strength during a make-or-break season

Smart coaches know when to bet on themselves.

The Schedule From Hell Awaits

Here’s the brutal truth about Oklahoma’s 2025 schedule.

ESPN’s SP+ ranks it as the toughest in college football. The Sooners will face eight teams projected to start the season in the top 25. There are no easy games. No breathers. No margin for error.

The gauntlet includes:

  • Michigan at home in Week 2
  • Auburn, Texas, Ole Miss, Missouri, and LSU in conference play
  • Road trips to South Carolina, Tennessee, and Alabama
  • The annual Red River Rivalry that could define seasons

This schedule could either validate Oklahoma’s transformation or expose it as window dressing. Success against this competition would immediately change national perception. Failure would seal Venables’ fate.

What Success Actually Looks Like in 2025

Forget about playoff dreams for now.

Oklahoma needs to prove three fundamental things in 2025:

  • The offense can score consistently (targeting 30+ points per game)
  • The team can compete physically with SEC opponents week after week
  • Venables can develop the roster depth necessary for long-term success

Most analysts project 7-5 or 8-4, which would represent clear progress while falling short of traditional Oklahoma standards. But here’s the reality: a winning season and bowl appearance might be enough to buy Venables another year.

The key metrics extend beyond wins and losses. Can Mateer throw for 30+ touchdowns? Can the offensive line protect him against SEC pass rushes? Can the defense create turnovers and game-changing plays?

These are the questions that will determine whether Oklahoma’s transformation succeeds or fails.

This Is Make-or-Break Time for Everyone

Oklahoma’s 2025 season represents the ultimate high-stakes gamble.

Venables has bet his career on a complete program overhaul. Athletic director Joe Castiglione has invested heavily in new infrastructure and personnel. The fanbase is demanding immediate results after years of frustration.

In a recent ESPN article, analyst Bill Connelly noted that Mateer and Arbuckle’s additions make Oklahoma “one of the most interesting teams in college football” heading into 2025. The pieces are in place for dramatic improvement.

But potential means nothing in the SEC. Execution under pressure determines everything.

For Venables, 2025 isn’t just another season—it’s his final audition. The combination of Mateer’s proven production, Arbuckle’s innovative system, and a defense with established talent creates the framework for success.

The question isn’t whether Oklahoma has the tools to compete.

The question is whether they can use them before it’s too late.

The Next Billion Dollar Game

College football isn’t just a sport anymore—it’s a high-stakes market where information asymmetry separates winners from losers. While the average fan sees only what happens between the sidelines, real insiders trade on the hidden dynamics reshaping programs from the inside out.

Our team has embedded with the power brokers who run this game. From the coaching carousel to NIL deals to transfer portal strategies, we’ve mapped the entire ecosystem with the kind of obsessive detail that would make a hedge fund analyst blush.

Why subscribe? Because in markets this inefficient, information creates alpha. Our subscribers knew which coaches were dead men walking months before the mainstream media caught on. They understood which programs were quietly transforming their recruiting apparatuses while competitors slept.

The smart money is already positioning for 2025. Are you?

Click below—it’s free—and join the small group of people who understand the real value of college football’s new economy.

Free Subscription
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Vanderbilt Football 2025: The Year Everything Changes

Mark Haines on June 19, 2025

Vanderbilt football is about to prove that 2024 wasn’t a fluke.

The Commodores shocked college football last season with their first winning record since 2013, capped by a bowl victory that had Nashville celebrating like they’d won the national championship. Now comes the real test: can they do it again?

The answer lies in understanding what makes this program different from every other SEC bottom-feeder that has enjoyed a brief moment in the sun before crashing back to earth.

The Foundation That Won’t Crack

Diego Pavia isn’t just returning for his final season.

He’s returning as the most proven dual-threat quarterback in the SEC, a player who accounted for 3,094 total yards and 28 touchdowns while throwing just four interceptions in 2024. His 143.5 passer rating wasn’t a statistical accident. It was the result of a quarterback who understands how to manage games, create explosive plays, and deliver when everything is on the line.

Pavia was selected the league’s first-ever Newcomer of the Year, presented to the league’s top player who had not previously competed in the SEC and was not eligible for Freshman of the Year, according to the official Vanderbilt athletics website.

But here’s what makes his return even more valuable:

  • He’s publicly declared Vanderbilt’s intent to “run Tennessee”
  • He’s already proven he can beat the best teams in the country (see: Alabama upset)
  • He brings the kind of swagger that transforms program culture

Joining Pavia is All-SEC tight end Eli Stowers, who became the first Vanderbilt offensive player to earn first-team All-SEC honors since 2013 after catching 49 passes for 638 yards and five touchdowns.

This isn’t just talent returning—it’s proven, battle-tested production.

The Defense Gets Serious About Stopping People

Vanderbilt’s defense allowed 376.5 yards per game in 2024, which sounds terrible until you realize where they started.

The unit jumped from 126th to 50th in scoring defense and from 104th to 52nd in rushing defense during the 2024 season. That’s not incremental improvement—that’s a complete transformation of identity.

Now they’re doubling down on that progress:

  • Steve Gregory promoted to full defensive coordinator after proving his system works
  • Pass rush specialist Will Smart added to maximize pressure packages
  • Nine defensive starters returning, including linebacker Bryan Longwell (89 tackles) and the Fontenette-Capers pass rush duo (16 combined sacks)

The transfer portal reinforcements tell the story of a program that knows exactly what it needs:

  • Safety CJ Heard from Florida Atlantic brings proven playmaking ability
  • Defensive linemen Mason Nelson (Western Michigan), Jaylon Stone (Miami-OH), and Clinton Azubuike (Northern Arizona) add crucial depth
  • Secondary additions Jordan Mathews (Tennessee) and others address coverage concerns

This isn’t hope-based roster building—it’s surgical improvement of specific weaknesses.

The Schedule That Will Define Everything

Vanderbilt will face seven opponents that reached the postseason in 2024, including College Football Playoff teams Texas and Tennessee.

This schedule doesn’t care about your feel-good story. It will expose every weakness, punish every mistake, and test whether this program has truly turned the corner or just enjoyed a brief moment of overachievement.

The critical dates that will define the season:

  • August 30 vs Charleston Southern – No trap games allowed
  • October 4 at Alabama – The revenge game, exactly 364 days after the upset
  • November 1 at Texas – First trip to Austin since 1903
  • November 29 at Tennessee – The rivalry game that could define the future

October and November will be brutal:

  • Four SEC road games at South Carolina, Alabama, Texas, and Tennessee
  • Home contests against LSU, Missouri, Auburn, and Kentucky that offer opportunities but zero margin for error
  • A November slate that could either cement their reputation or expose them as pretenders

The schedule is college football’s truth serum—and Vanderbilt is about to find out what they’re really made of.

Money Talks, and Vanderbilt Is Finally Speaking the Language

The Anchor Impact Fund has raised over $2.1 million to support athletes, but that’s not the whole story.

The real story is how Vanderbilt is using NIL strategically rather than throwing money around hoping something sticks. They’re targeting specific needs, combining competitive packages with immediate playing time, and leveraging Nashville’s unique market appeal.

Here’s why their approach works:

  • Portal-focused roster building that brought in nine starters for 2024’s breakthrough
  • Strategic targeting of undervalued transfers rather than bidding wars for five-stars
  • Emphasis on holistic development, including financial literacy and branding support

The new NCAA settlement, which allows up to $20.5 million in direct athlete compensation, will still favor programs with deeper pockets. But Vanderbilt has proven you don’t need to outspend everyone—you just need to spend smarter than everyone.

Clark Lea Isn’t Going Anywhere, and That Changes Everything

Their NIL success directly contributed to retaining players like Pavia while attracting impact transfers who might otherwise choose programs with bigger checkbooks but smaller opportunities.

Lea was the first Vanderbilt coach to be voted Coach of the Year by his peers since 2008 and the first Vandy head man to win it outright since 1982, according to Sports Illustrated’s coverage of his SEC Coach of the Year recognition.

But accolades don’t build programs—stability does.

Lea’s contract extension through 2029 provides something Vanderbilt hasn’t had in decades: continuity. His deep connection as an alumnus who played for the program creates emotional investment that transcends typical coaching arrangements.

The coaching staff tells the story of a program that values both continuity and evolution:

  • Offensive coordinator Tim Beck returns with proven success developing Pavia
  • Defensive coordinator Steve Gregory promoted after engineering dramatic improvement
  • Strategic additions like pass rush specialist Will Smart show a commitment to specialized expertise

This isn’t a coach waiting for a better opportunity—it’s a coach building something lasting.

Special Teams: The Advantage Nobody Talks About

Kicker Brock Taylor converted 85.7% of field goals and 97.5% of extra points in 2024.

In a conference where games are decided by three points and missed kicks end seasons, that reliability is worth multiple wins. Punter Jesse Mirco averaged 48.0 yards per punt, providing field position advantages that often proved decisive.

Return specialists Junior Sherrill and Martel Hight both scored touchdowns in 2024, adding explosive potential that can flip momentum in crucial moments.

Special teams excellence isn’t glamorous, but it’s the foundation of every program that consistently outperforms expectations.

The Sustainability Test

Every SEC program has good seasons—few have sustainable success.

Vanderbilt enters 2025 facing the ultimate test: can they maintain competitiveness while navigating elevated expectations, increased media attention, and the constant threat of player defections through the transfer portal?

The answers lie in their systematic approach:

  • Academic excellence (31st consecutive semester above 3.0 GPA) provides recruiting differentiation
  • Cultural foundation built on development rather than just talent acquisition
  • Strategic roster management that emphasizes fit over pure star power

Most analysts project a 6-6 record, but that projection undersells the program’s potential if defensive improvements materialize and key players stay healthy.

Bowl eligibility remains the primary goal, but consecutive winning seasons would represent program-altering achievement in a conference that has historically treated Vanderbilt as a guaranteed victory.

Why This Time Is Different

Vanderbilt football isn’t just building for 2025—they’re building for the next decade.

The combination of Pavia’s final season, strategic roster reinforcement, and coaching staff continuity creates the best foundation this program has enjoyed in over a decade. More importantly, they’ve proven they can develop culture, manage resources, and compete against elite talent.

The schedule provides zero margin for error but offers maximum opportunity for statement victories that could permanently elevate their national profile.

Success in November—particularly against Kentucky and Tennessee—won’t just validate the 2024 breakthrough. It will establish Vanderbilt as a permanent factor in SEC competition rather than an occasional disruptor.

The question isn’t whether Vanderbilt can compete in the SEC anymore.

The question is whether they can sustain that competitiveness while building toward something even greater. The 2025 season will provide the definitive answer to college football’s most intriguing sustainability question.

And for the first time in decades, the smart money is on the Commodores proving that lightning can indeed strike twice in Nashville.

The Next Billion Dollar Game

College football isn’t just a sport anymore—it’s a high-stakes market where information asymmetry separates winners from losers. While the average fan sees only what happens between the sidelines, real insiders trade on the hidden dynamics reshaping programs from the inside out.

Our team has embedded with the power brokers who run this game. From the coaching carousel to NIL deals to transfer portal strategies, we’ve mapped the entire ecosystem with the kind of obsessive detail that would make a hedge fund analyst blush.

Why subscribe? Because in markets this inefficient, information creates alpha. Our subscribers knew which coaches were dead men walking months before the mainstream media caught on. They understood which programs were quietly transforming their recruiting apparatuses while competitors slept.

The smart money is already positioning for 2025. Are you?

Click below—it’s free—and join the small group of people who understand the real value of college football’s new economy.

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Florida Gators 2025 Football Season Preview: The DJ Lagway Era Begins Now

Mark Haines on June 19, 2025

The Florida Gators are about to find out if their future is as bright as they think it is.

After finishing 8-5 overall and 4-4 in the SEC in 2024, the Gators pulled off something that felt impossible just months earlier. They won their first bowl game in five years. They beat ranked teams. They made people believe again.

But 2025? That’s when the real test begins.

Billy Napier Just Bought Himself One More Year

Here’s what most people don’t understand about Billy Napier’s situation.

He wasn’t retained because he’s suddenly become a great coach. He was retained because DJ Lagway showed flashes of brilliance, and Florida’s administration is betting everything on a 19-year-old quarterback’s potential.

Florida athletic director Scott Stricklin made this crystal clear: “As we’ve seen these past several weeks, the young men on this team represent what it means to be a Gator. Their resolve, effort and execution are evident in their performance and growth each week – building a foundation that promises greater success next season and beyond.”

Translation: We’re not firing Napier because we can’t afford to lose Lagway.

The pressure on Napier in 2025 is enormous:

  • He’s 18-19 as Florida’s head coach
  • That’s the worst winning percentage by a Florida coach since 1949
  • Another mediocre season and the hot seat becomes an ejector seat
  • The schedule is brutal again

Napier knows this is his make-or-break year.

DJ Lagway Is Either Going to Save This Program or Break It

Everything about Florida’s 2025 season hinges on one person.

DJ Lagway finished his rookie season with 1,915 passing yards and 12 touchdowns, helping lead Florida to a 6-1 record in his seven starts. When he played, the Gators looked like a completely different team.

But here’s the thing nobody wants to talk about: Lagway dealt with shoulder and lower body injuries that limited his spring practice participation. He was “an extremely limited participant in the Gators’ spring practice, not even throwing in most of spring and therefore losing an opportunity for crucial reps ahead of a make-or-break season.”

What makes Lagway special:

  • He completed 19 of his 36 deep pass attempts in 2024 for 733 yards, five touchdowns and only two interceptions
  • His 52.8 percent adjusted completion percentage on deep balls led all SEC returners
  • He was named the top deep ball passer returning for 2025 by 247Sports and Pro Football Focus
  • In his seven starts, he upset ranked LSU and Ole Miss teams

The kid has elite arm talent and ice in his veins.

The problem?

If Lagway gets hurt or struggles early, this entire season falls apart. Florida doesn’t have a proven backup. They don’t have elite talent around him yet. Everything depends on a sophomore quarterback staying healthy and taking a massive leap forward.

That’s a lot of pressure for anyone, let alone a 19-year-old.

The Defense Finally Has a Plan (We Think)

Florida’s defense in 2024 was like watching a car accident in slow motion.

They allowed 376.9 total yards per game. They gave up big plays at the worst possible moments. They looked confused half the time.

So what did Florida do? They completely overhauled the coaching staff.

The defensive changes:

  • Ron Roberts promoted to full-time defensive coordinator
  • Vinnie Sunseri hired as co-defensive coordinator and safeties coach
  • New schemes are designed to reduce coverage mistakes
  • Focus on the nickel position to stop big plays

The talent is there. Defensive linemen Caleb Banks (4.5 sacks, 7 TFL) and Tyreak Sapp (7 sacks, 13 TFL) both return. They successfully retained key players who could have transferred.

But coaching changes are always a gamble. New systems take time. Chemistry has to be rebuilt.

Will it work? Nobody knows yet.

Recruiting is Finally Starting to Pay Off

Here’s the one thing Napier has consistently done well at Florida: recruit.

Florida’s 2025 recruiting class ranks in the top 10 nationally. They’re bringing in elite defensive backs, dynamic wide receivers, and impact players at positions of need.

The recruiting momentum:

  • Florida’s classes have finished 32nd, 12th and 10th since Napier arrived in late 2021
  • The 2025 class features blue-chip prospects like Ben Hanks III and Vernell Brown III
  • Many freshmen are expected to compete for immediate playing time
  • The uncertainty over Napier’s future had hurt recruiting, but his retention should help

ESPN noted: “Between defensive backs Jordan Castell, Devin Moore, Dijon Johnson, and Aaron Gates, there were four members of Florida’s 2023 class — signed at the end of Napier’s first full cycle with the program — in the Gators’ starting lineup on defense against Georgia in Week 10.”

The young talent is starting to contribute. The question is whether it’s enough to compete with Georgia, Texas, and the rest of the SEC elite.

The Schedule is Absolutely Brutal (Again)

Want to know why most experts are predicting Florida finishes around .500?

Look at this schedule.

The gauntlet Florida faces:

  • Road games at LSU, Miami, Texas A&M, Kentucky, and Ole Miss
  • Home games against Texas, Mississippi State, Tennessee, and Florida State
  • Georgia at a neutral site
  • Multiple top-25 teams early in the season

ESPN’s Football Power Index projects Florida for a 6-6 regular season, ranking them 12th in the SEC. Most betting lines have the Gators’ win total between 6.5 and 7.5 games.

The early-season stretch is particularly dangerous. Florida travels to LSU in September and hosts Miami. If they stumble early, the pressure on Napier will be suffocating.

This isn’t a schedule where you can afford to have growing pains or figure things out on the fly.

What Success Looks Like in 2025

Here’s the reality most Florida fans don’t want to hear.

Success in 2025 won’t be measured solely by wins and losses. It will be measured by progress.

What progress looks like:

  • Lagway continues developing without major regression
  • The defense shows clear improvement under new coordination
  • Young players contribute immediately and show growth
  • Competitive games against ranked opponents
  • No embarrassing blowout losses

If Florida can hit those markers while winning 7-8 games, that’s actually a successful season given the schedule and where the program was two years ago.

The best-case scenario:

Lagway stays healthy and takes a massive leap. The defense improves dramatically. Florida steals a couple of games they shouldn’t win and finishes 8-4 or 9-3.

The worst-case scenario:

Lagway gets hurt early. The defensive changes don’t work. Florida struggles to win 6 games and Napier gets fired.

Most likely? Florida finishes somewhere between 6-6 and 7-5, shows clear progress, and everyone agrees the program is heading in the right direction.

The Bottom Line: This is Make-or-Break Time

Florida is at a crossroads.

They have a potentially elite quarterback. They have strong recruiting classes. They have momentum from a solid 2024 finish.

But they also have a coach on thin ice, a brutal schedule, and enormous expectations from a fanbase that’s tired of being mediocre.

The 2025 season will determine whether Florida is finally ready to compete with the SEC’s elite or if they’re destined for another few years of frustration.

DJ Lagway holds the key to everything.

The Next Billion Dollar Game

College football isn’t just a sport anymore—it’s a high-stakes market where information asymmetry separates winners from losers. While the average fan sees only what happens between the sidelines, real insiders trade on the hidden dynamics reshaping programs from the inside out.

Our team has embedded with the power brokers who run this game. From the coaching carousel to NIL deals to transfer portal strategies, we’ve mapped the entire ecosystem with the kind of obsessive detail that would make a hedge fund analyst blush.

Why subscribe? Because in markets this inefficient, information creates alpha. Our subscribers knew which coaches were dead men walking months before the mainstream media caught on. They understood which programs were quietly transforming their recruiting apparatuses while competitors slept.

The smart money is already positioning for 2025. Are you?

Click below—it’s free—and join the small group of people who understand the real value of college football’s new economy.

Free Subscription
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Auburn Football 2025 Season Preview: Hugh Freeze’s Make-or-Break Season Arrives

Mark Haines on June 18, 2025

Auburn’s Hugh Freeze is running out of time.

After two straight losing seasons at Auburn, the Tigers head coach faces the most critical year of his tenure on the Plains. Everything that could be upgraded has been upgraded. The quarterback room features a former five-star transfer. The roster is loaded with blue-chip talent from back-to-back top-10 recruiting classes. The transfer portal has been pillaged for immediate impact players.

But none of that matters if Auburn can’t win football games.

The 2025 season isn’t about potential anymore—it’s about production. And for Freeze, it’s about survival in the unforgiving world of SEC football.

Jackson Arnold Solves Auburn’s Biggest Problem

Auburn’s quarterback situation has been solved.

Oklahoma transfer Jackson Arnold brings the exact skill set that Hugh Freeze’s offense demands: dual-threat ability, RPO mastery, and a cannon for an arm. Arnold isn’t just an upgrade—he’s a complete transformation of what Auburn can do offensively.

His 2024 numbers at Oklahoma tell only part of the story:

  • 1,421 passing yards, 12 touchdowns, 3 interceptions
  • 444 rushing yards, 3 touchdowns
  • 131 rushing yards in upset win over No. 7 Alabama

“The fit he is for our offense and Auburn, I couldn’t be more excited,” Freeze said. “He’s a dual-threat guy who understands the RPO system extremely well and throws the deep ball extremely well.”

Arnold struggled at Oklahoma due to receiver injuries and the presence of three different offensive coordinators in one season. At Auburn, he’ll have stability, weapons, and a system designed to capitalize on his strengths.

This is the quarterback Auburn has been searching for since Cam Newton left the Plains.

The Transfer Portal Became Auburn’s Salvation

Auburn attacked the transfer portal like their program depended on it.

Because it did.

The Tigers identified every weakness from 2024 and found proven solutions in the portal. Offensive line struggles? Virginia Tech’s Xavier Chaplin and USC’s Mason Murphy arrive with starting experience. Receiver depth issues? Georgia Tech’s Eric Singleton Jr. brings elite production and versatility.

The defensive side received similar treatment:

  • MAC Defensive Back of the Year Raion Strader
  • Experienced linebacker Caleb Wheatland
  • Multiple defensive backs with Power Five starting experience

Auburn brought in 19 transfers while losing 23 players to the portal. However, the key difference lies in this: most departures weren’t regular contributors, whereas most additions had starting experience.

This wasn’t roster management—this was strategic reconstruction.

Elite Recruiting Finally Pays Dividends

Auburn’s recruiting renaissance under Hugh Freeze has been impossible to ignore.

Back-to-back top-10 recruiting classes have fundamentally changed the talent level on the Plains. The 2025 class ranks No. 6 nationally and includes:

  • Five-star quarterback Deuce Knight
  • Five-star edge rusher Jared Smith
  • Eight of Alabama’s top-10 prospects
  • Multiple ESPN 300 contributors across all positions

“I inherited a program that didn’t have a top-25 recruiting class for 4 years,” Freeze acknowledged. “You’re not going to win in this league [with that]. We’ve now had 2 full recruiting classes, both top-10.”

The talent gap that existed between Auburn and SEC powers has been closed through recruiting. Now comes the harder part: developing and deploying that talent effectively.

Defense Gets Rare Continuity

Here’s something Auburn hasn’t had in years: defensive coordinator stability.

D.J. Durkin returns for his second season leading the defense, providing continuity in a program that has cycled through coordinators at breakneck speed. The 2024 defense showed flashes of dominance when healthy, averaging 7 tackles for loss and 2.3 sacks per game.

The secondary remains Auburn’s defensive strength:

  • Experienced starters Kayin Lee and Kaleb Harris return
  • Transfer addition Raion Strader brings All-MAC credentials
  • Depth improved through recruiting and portal additions

Auburn must replace five of its top seven tacklers, but the combination of returning talent and strategic additions provides optimism for significant improvement.

The defense has the pieces—now Durkin gets an entire season to implement his system without major personnel overhauls.

The Schedule Helps Auburn

Auburn’s 2025 schedule is the most favorable they’ve seen in years.

Ranked 15th nationally in strength of schedule and 12th in the SEC, the Tigers avoid some of the conference’s most dangerous programs while their most significant challenges at Jordan-Hare Stadium.

Key scheduling advantages:

  • Alabama and Georgia both visit Auburn (historically better for the Tigers in odd years)
  • No matchup with Texas, the SEC’s most dominant program
  • Manageable non-conference slate to build momentum
  • Oklahoma visit provides revenge game opportunity against Arnold’s former team

“I feel a lot better than I have about our talent, our size, athleticism, and depth,” Freeze shared. “I still believe we need one more [signing] class to get to where we need to be, but I don’t sense any panic.”

The schedule provides Auburn with realistic paths to 7-8 wins if the talent translates into performance.

Hugh Freeze’s Job Depends on One Thing

Bowl eligibility isn’t a goal for Auburn in 2025—it’s a requirement.

“I’m not a fool, I think we’ve got to go to a bowl game,” Freeze said publicly. This represents the minimum acceptable outcome after two years of elite recruiting and massive roster investment.

The pressure couldn’t be more obvious:

  • Two straight losing seasons
  • Back-to-back years missing bowl games
  • Massive financial investment in roster construction
  • Fan patience is completely exhausted

Freeze’s track record suggests confidence in reaching this baseline. In 12 seasons as an FBS head coach, he’s failed to win six games only twice: his final year at Ole Miss and his second year at Auburn.

But Auburn hasn’t just invested in talent—they’ve invested in Freeze’s vision. If that vision doesn’t produce wins in 2025, both will be replaced.

The Areas That Will Define Success

Auburn’s 2025 season will be determined by improvement in specific areas.

Red zone efficiency was a key factor in the Tigers’ struggles in 2024, ranking 122nd nationally in touchdown percentage. Arnold’s dual-threat ability and upgraded receivers should immediately address this critical weakness.

Special teams ranked 84th nationally in SP+ efficiency, consistently hurting field position and momentum. New specialists and renewed emphasis represent clear priorities.

Turnover margin must improve after Auburn averaged 1.8 giveaways while forcing only 1.1 takeaways per game. Arnold’s decision-making will be crucial in flipping this equation.

These aren’t complex problems—they’re execution issues that talent alone should be able to solve.

What Success Looks Like

Vegas set Auburn’s win total at 7.5 games, reflecting cautious optimism about the program’s trajectory.

ESPN’s SP+ model projects Auburn to rank No. 25 overall, with an average of 6.9 wins. The defense is projected to rank 19th nationally, while the offense is projected to rank 48th. These numbers suggest a team capable of bowling with upside for more.

Realistic 2025 benchmarks:

  • Bowl eligibility (minimum acceptable outcome)
  • Competitive showings against Alabama and Georgia at home
  • Road victory against Oklahoma or Texas A&M
  • Establishing clear program momentum for 2026

The talent is there. The schedule cooperates. The expectations are clear.

Now, Auburn has to win football games.

The Bottom Line: No More Excuses

Auburn enters 2025 with everything necessary for success.

The quarterback position has been upgraded with a proven dual-threat transfer. The skill positions feature elite recruiting and portal additions. The defense returns key contributors while adding impact players for depth.

The schedule provides legitimate opportunities for 7-8 wins. The roster construction represents a substantial financial investment in immediate success.

Hugh Freeze has spent two years building this foundation. The 2025 season will determine whether he can coach at the level he recruits, or whether Auburn needs to find someone who can.

The excuses have been exhausted. The expectations are crystal clear. The pieces are in place.

Time to find out if Hugh Freeze can turn all this potential into actual victories.

The Next Billion Dollar Game

College football isn’t just a sport anymore—it’s a high-stakes market where information asymmetry separates winners from losers. While the average fan sees only what happens between the sidelines, real insiders trade on the hidden dynamics reshaping programs from the inside out.

Our team has embedded with the power brokers who run this game. From the coaching carousel to NIL deals to transfer portal strategies, we’ve mapped the entire ecosystem with the kind of obsessive detail that would make a hedge fund analyst blush.

Why subscribe? Because in markets this inefficient, information creates alpha. Our subscribers knew which coaches were dead men walking months before the mainstream media caught on. They understood which programs were quietly transforming their recruiting apparatuses while competitors slept.

The smart money is already positioning for 2025. Are you?

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Mississippi State Football 2025 Season Preview: Bulldogs Poised for Significant Improvement Under Jeff Lebby

Mark Haines on June 18, 2025

Jeff Lebby’s second season at Mississippi State represents the most critical juncture in recent program history.

After enduring a brutal 2-10 campaign that saw the Bulldogs finish winless in SEC play, everything about this team has been rebuilt from the ground up. The transfer portal became Mississippi State’s best friend. The recruiting class jumped into the top 30 nationally. And perhaps most importantly, the quarterback who showed flashes of brilliance before injury is coming back for another shot.

The question isn’t whether Mississippi State will be better in 2025.

The question is whether they’ll be good enough to survive one of the most punishing schedules in college football.

Blake Shapen’s Return Changes Everything

The most significant development for Mississippi State heading into 2025 is the return of quarterback Blake Shapen.

After receiving a medical hardship waiver, Shapen announced his decision to come back for a sixth season. The Baylor transfer started the Bulldogs’ first four games of 2024 before a shoulder injury ended his season prematurely. But what he showed in those four games was exactly what Jeff Lebby’s offense needed:

  • 68.5% completion percentage
  • 243.5 yards per game
  • 8 touchdowns to just 1 interception
  • 2 rushing touchdowns

“Blake’s decision to return for the 2025 season after his season-ending shoulder injury in Week 4 last year provides crucial stability,” notes former Mississippi State quarterback Jackie Sherrill.

His return isn’t just about talent—it’s about continuity in a system that desperately needs it.

The Transfer Portal Became Mississippi State’s Salvation

Mississippi State attacked the transfer portal like their program depended on it.

Because it did.

The defensive line—arguably the team’s biggest weakness in 2024—received a complete overhaul:

  • Will Whitson from Coastal Carolina (former Senior Bowl candidate)
  • Jamil Burroughs from Alabama/Miami
  • Jaray Bledsoe from Texas
  • Red Hibbler from NC State
  • Raishein Thomas from Northern Illinois

The secondary was reinforced with Old Dominion safety Jahron Manning (85 tackles, 3 interceptions in 2024) and Marian corner Dwight Lewis III. Tennessee transfer Jalen Smith brings veteran leadership to the linebacker position after Stone Blanton’s departure to the NFL.

On offense, the receiver room added six transfers, including Brenen Thompson from Oklahoma and Anthony Evans III from Georgia. Running back Davon Booth returns after leading the team in rushing, now paired with South Alabama transfer Fluff Bothwell (7.5 yards per carry in 2024).

This wasn’t just roster management—this was program reconstruction.

Recruiting Finally Shows Signs of Life

The 2025 recruiting class ranks 26th nationally.

For a program that has struggled to attract top talent, this represents massive progress. Mississippi State signed 27 players, with four four-star prospects:

  • Quarterback KaMario Taylor
  • Linebacker Tyler Lockhart
  • Edge rusher Tyshun Willis
  • Cornerback Kyle Johnson

This recruiting success reflects Lebby’s emphasis on building depth while maintaining focus on in-state prospects. The class provides both immediate contributors and long-term development pieces as the program works to close the talent gap with SEC elite programs.

The Schedule Flip Could Be a Game-Changer

Here’s what makes 2025 different: Mississippi State gets to play its toughest opponents at home.

After playing four 2024 College Football Playoff teams on the road last season, the Bulldogs welcome those same four teams to Starkville in 2025:

  • Arizona State (Sept. 6)
  • Tennessee (Sept. 27)
  • Texas (Oct. 25)
  • Georgia (Nov. 8)

The season opens with a road trip to Southern Miss (Aug. 30), then the home opener against Arizona State. Alcorn State and Northern Illinois round out the non-conference schedule before the SEC gauntlet begins.

Critical road games include Texas A&M (Oct. 4), Florida (Oct. 18), Arkansas (Nov. 1), and Missouri (Nov. 15). The traditional Egg Bowl against Ole Miss concludes the season at home (Nov. 28).

This home-and-away flip gives Mississippi State home-field advantage for their most challenging contests—and that could make all the difference.

Defense Gets a Complete Makeover

The 2024 defense was historically bad.

34.1 points allowed per game. 456.4 yards surrendered per game. Both numbers are dead last in the SEC. The defensive line couldn’t generate pressure, couldn’t stop the run, and frankly looked overmatched every Saturday.

The transformation has been dramatic. Spring practice reports indicated immediate improvement, with the revamped defensive line generating six sacks in the spring game. Safety Isaac Smith returns as the anchor after recording 127 tackles in 2024, providing veteran leadership for a unit that must improve dramatically.

The additions aren’t just about talent—they’re about changing the entire culture of a defense that got pushed around for an entire season.

Jeff Lebby Faces His Defining Moment

“What Jeff is building takes time, but the signs are encouraging,” former Mississippi State coach Jackie Sherrill said at a recent booster event. “The SEC West isn’t forgiving, but neither is standing still. The program is moving forward.”

But forward isn’t fast enough for everyone.

Lebby enters his second season under intense pressure to show tangible progress. The roster overhaul was necessary. The recruiting improvements are promising. The quarterback situation is stabilized.

Now he has to win games.

External projections place Mississippi State’s win total at approximately 4.5 games. ESPN’s FPI rankings have the Bulldogs at 52nd nationally—a notable improvement, but still far from SEC respectability.

The margin for error is razor-thin. Early momentum from non-conference victories is essential. Pulling off at least one significant SEC upset might be the difference between job security and a coaching search.

The Keys to Exceeding Expectations

For Mississippi State to surprise people in 2025, several things must happen perfectly:

  • The defensive line transformation must translate into consistent pressure and run-stopping ability
  • Blake Shapen must stay healthy and continue his efficient play
  • The offensive line must gel quickly to protect the quarterback
  • Costly turnovers and penalties (minus-six turnover margin in 2024) must be eliminated

The pieces are in place for significant improvement. The talent level is higher. The depth is better. The culture is changing.

But in the SEC, good intentions don’t win football games.

What Success Looks Like

Mississippi State doesn’t need to win the SEC in 2025.

They need to look like a program moving in the right direction. They need to be competitive in games they’re supposed to lose. They need to win the games they’re supposed to win. And they need to steal one or two that they’re not supposed to win.

Bowl eligibility would be a massive step forward. Beating Ole Miss in the Egg Bowl would erase a lot of frustration. Winning at Arkansas or Florida could provide momentum heading into the 2026 season.

Success will be measured not just in wins and losses, but in competitiveness, development, and the establishment of a sustainable program foundation.

The 2025 season represents a pivotal moment for Mississippi State football, with the potential to either validate Jeff Lebby’s vision or send the program back to the drawing board once again.

The Next Billion Dollar Game

College football isn’t just a sport anymore—it’s a high-stakes market where information asymmetry separates winners from losers. While the average fan sees only what happens between the sidelines, real insiders trade on the hidden dynamics reshaping programs from the inside out.

Our team has embedded with the power brokers who run this game. From the coaching carousel to NIL deals to transfer portal strategies, we’ve mapped the entire ecosystem with the kind of obsessive detail that would make a hedge fund analyst blush.

Why subscribe? Because in markets this inefficient, information creates alpha. Our subscribers knew which coaches were dead men walking months before the mainstream media caught on. They understood which programs were quietly transforming their recruiting apparatuses while competitors slept.

The smart money is already positioning for 2025. Are you?

Click below—it’s free—and join the small group of people who understand the real value of college football’s new economy.

Free Subscription
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