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James Franklin Is 4-21 Against Top-10 Teams. Here’s Why Virginia Tech Hired Him Anyway, And Why It Might Actually Be The Right Call

Mark Haines on December 5, 2025

Is James Franklin a Good Hire at Virginia Tech?

The Verdict

James Franklin is a high-floor, polarizingly safe hire for Virginia Tech.

He dramatically raises the talent and competency baseline in Blacksburg. His recruiting prowess will immediately transform VT’s roster trajectory. And his track record of building programs (Vanderbilt, Penn State) removes the developmental gamble that tanked the Pry era.

But his historical ceiling in big games makes it unlikely he turns VT into a true national title contender.

The Numbers Don’t Lie

Franklin’s career record speaks for itself—and it stacks up favorably against Virginia Tech’s coaching legacy.

Franklin vs Virginia Tech Coaching Legends

Franklin’s .687 career win percentage actually exceeds Frank Beamer’s legendary .667 mark at Virginia Tech. His bowl record (4-2) significantly outpaces Beamer’s 16-19 postseason ledger.

The Elephant in the Room

Franklin wins games. But can he win the right games?

At Penn State, Franklin went 4-21 against AP Top-10 opponents. That’s the number that haunted him in Happy Valley—and the number that will follow him to Blacksburg. When games mattered most, when a breakthrough win would have changed the program’s trajectory, Franklin came up short.

Franklin vs. Elite Coaches (Career Records)

The gap is stark. Saban won 81% of his games against ranked opponents. Meyer won 84%. Franklin? He’s .500 against ranked teams—and significantly worse against Top-10 competition specifically.

The Recruiting Rocket

This is where Franklin immediately changes everything.

In roughly two weeks on the job, Franklin dragged Virginia Tech’s 2026 class from around No. 120-125 nationally into the low-20s. He flipped 10+ former Penn State commits, pulling heavily from Pennsylvania, New Jersey, and the Mid-Atlantic. The current class includes at least six ESPN Top 300 prospects.

This isn’t incremental improvement. This is a complete geographic and talent-level reorientation.

  • Before Franklin: VT classes hovered in the 30s-50s nationally with only one top-25 finish in the last decade.
  • After Franklin: Tracking toward VT’s best class since the early 2010s—with no full staff and a three-week runway
  • Projected steady-state: Classes settling in the 15-25 range annually instead of the 30-50 band

Franklin has explicitly said VT will “always” prioritize offensive and defensive line recruiting. Given VT just produced a top-25 class with almost no runway, expect Hokies classes to feature more blue-chip linemen than they’ve signed in years.

The Virginia Tech Context

Virginia Tech made this move after an 0-3 start in 2025, including a blowout loss to Old Dominion and a defensive collapse under a defensive-minded coach.

Let’s be clear about where the Hokies have been since Beamer left:

  • Only one double-digit win season since 2011 (Fuente’s first year, 2016)
  • Brent Pry went 16-24 and never finished ranked
  • The program has drifted mainly into the ACC middle

Franklin’s win rate, ranked finishes, and recruiting baselines are all significantly above what VT has produced since 2011. The expected value jump from Pry to Franklin is massive—even if the ceiling remains debated.

The ACC Factor

Here’s the key insight that makes this hire make sense:

The ACC path is significantly easier than the Big Ten gauntlet Franklin just left.

In the Big Ten, Franklin had to navigate Ohio State, Michigan, Oregon, and Washington every year. His historical ceiling there translated to “playoff fringe but not elite.” But in the ACC? That same performance profile projects to frequent 9-10-win seasons, regular conference title contention, and occasional playoff appearances in the expanded field.

For a program that hasn’t lived in that neighborhood for a decade, that represents a clear upgrade.

The Bottom Line

Virginia Tech’s realistic near-term needs are:

  1. Consistent 8-10 win seasons
  2. Regular ACC contention and major bowl relevance
  3. A recruiting/portal footprint that looks like peak Beamer-era VT, modernized

Franklin’s history suggests he is very likely to deliver that tier and stabilize the brand—even if he falls short of making VT a playoff mainstay.

  • High probability of getting VT “back.”
  • Low probability of a true national-title breakthrough.
  • Virtually no mystery about what you’re buying.

VT is effectively trading the uncertainty (and downside) of another developmental hire for a highly predictable product: strong floor, defined ceiling, and an immediate recruiting jolt that reestablishes the Hokies as a serious operation in the region.

Is that a “good hire”?

For what Virginia Tech needs right now? Yes. Absolutely.

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Grading the Carousel: Preliminary Hire Grades for the 2024-25 Cycle

Mark Haines on December 3, 2025

The carousel never stops spinning.

We’re tracking 21 coaching changes this cycle — 13 with new coaches already named, 8 still waiting on their guy. What follows are our preliminary grades across three categories: Hire Quality, Process, and Fan/Media Sentiment.

These aren’t final verdicts.

They’re initial reactions. First impressions. The kind of grades that will look either brilliant or idiotic in three years when we revisit them.

We’ll do deep dives on each hire individually in the coming weeks. But for now, here’s where every job stands — from the home runs to the dumpster fires.

The Home Runs

These programs swung big and connected.

Virginia Tech — James Franklin (A / A– / A)

The Hokies didn’t just make a hire. They made a statement.

Landing James Franklin from Penn State signals that Virginia Tech is done being a sleeping giant. The staff and recruiting implications will ripple through the ACC for years. The only question now is whether VT finally acts like the resource program it’s always claimed to be.

How his Penn State staff/recruits follow, what this does to the ACC power structure, and whether VT is finally acting like a “resource program” again.

Oregon State — JaMarcus Shephard (A / A– / A)

The Beavers landed their guy without a nationwide circus.

JaMarcus Shephard comes from Alabama’s staff into the most uncertain moment in Oregon State history. Post-realignment survival depends on portal management and identity preservation. A first-time head coach navigating conference limbo while maintaining Trent Bray’s defensive DNA is a tall order — but OSU handled this search like a program that knows exactly who it is.

Post-realignment survival, recruiting without a stable league home, and whether a first-time HC can maintain Bray’s defensive identity.

LSU — Lane Kiffin (A / D / A)

The hire is an A. The process was a circus.

Lane Kiffin to LSU was the worst-kept secret in college football, which made the public courtship even messier. But the end result? A program with unlimited resources landing one of the sport’s best offensive minds and most ruthless recruiters. The marriage either produces championships or a spectacular implosion. There is no middle ground in Baton Rouge.

Ole Miss fallout, staff poaching wars, and if LSU’s booster culture amplifies or burns out Kiffin’s volatility in a hurry.

Colorado State — Jim Mora Jr. (A / B / B+)

The Mountain West needed a credible name. CSU delivered.

Jim Mora brings NFL pedigree, P4 experience, and a recruiting network that Jay Norvell never fully activated. The question is whether this is a “last tour” victory lap or a legitimate rebuild. Either way, CSU positioned itself to capitalize on a weakened conference landscape.

Can Mora still grind on the trail, how CSU positions itself vs. a weakened MWC, and whether this is a “last tour” or a true rebuild.

Kentucky — Will Stein (A / B– / B)

Mark Stoops cast a long shadow. Will Stein steps into it confidently.

The offensive identity pivot is exactly what Kentucky needed after years of defensive-first football. Stein’s explosiveness ceiling could push the Wildcats from the 7-win band into genuine SEC East contention. The NIL landscape remains a challenge, but this hire signals ambition.

Stoops’ shadow, offensive identity pivot, NIL vs. league peers, and whether Stein can keep Kentucky in the 7–9 win band with a higher explosiveness ceiling.

Auburn — Alex Golesh (A– / B+ / B+)

Auburn got its tempo guy, Alex Golesh, from South Florida.

Golesh’s USF offense translated well enough to earn him a shot at the SEC’s toughest division. The patience level in Auburn is… historically nonexistent. But the process was clean, the hire was decisive, and line-of-scrimmage recruiting will determine whether this becomes a home run or a cautionary tale.

Translation of his USF tempo offense to the SEC West equivalent, patience level in Auburn, and how he recruits the lines of scrimmage.

The Solid Singles

Not flashy. Not embarrassing. Just… fine.

Stanford — Tavita Pritchard (B+ / B / B)

The Cardinal went internal and pragmatic.

Tavita Pritchard inherits Andrew Luck’s GM involvement and Stanford’s perpetual NIL/admissions constraints. The bet is that an NFL-style QB room can overcome portal friction in an ACC that doesn’t care about your academic reputation. It’s a reasonable swing given the circumstances.

Andrew Luck’s GM role, Stanford’s NIL constraints, and whether an NFL-style QB room can overcome admissions/portal friction in the ACC.

UCLA — Bob Chesney (B+ / C / C+)

This is either the next Kalen DeBoer or bargain shopping.

Bob Chesney’s jump from FCS to the Big Ten grind is significant. Here’s the strange part: the process was actually solid — because Martin Jarmond wasn’t running it. And that tells you everything about the real red flags at this job. An ineffective, egomaniacal athletic director. A disconnected, tone-deaf chancellor. A bean counter who only understands counting beans. Chesney’s system might translate just fine. Whether anyone can succeed under this administration is the bigger question.

The massive jump from FCS to the Big Ten grind, and whether anyone can succeed under an ineffective AD, a tone-deaf chancellor, and an administration that only understands counting beans.

Oklahoma State — Eric Morris (B– / B– / B–)

Life after Gundy is officially here.

Eric Morris keeps the Air Raid DNA without the 20-year cultural infrastructure. The question is whether Oklahoma State wants to chase Big 12 titles or just stability. This hire suggests stability. That’s not necessarily wrong — but it’s not inspiring either.

Life after Gundy’s long tenure, keeping the Air Raid DNA without the old culture, and whether OSU wants to chase Big 12 titles or just stability.

Ole Miss — Pete Golding (B / C+ / B)

Continuity hire. Full stop.

Pete Golding’s job is to keep the portal from hemorrhaging and maintain defensive credibility while the offense finds a new identity post-Kiffin. Whether he can be more than a recruiter/DC remains the central question. The Rebels are betting on stability over splash.

Defensive continuity vs. offensive identity change, portal retention after Kiffin, and whether Golding can be more than a recruiter/DC.

Michigan State — Pat Fitzgerald (C / B / B)

The Spartans hired a culture reset.

After back-to-back scandals, Pat Fitzgerald’s “Northwestern-style overachiever” ceiling might be exactly what East Lansing needs. The long-term recruiting upside against Ohio State and Michigan is… limited. But the hire makes sense for a program that desperately needed adults in the room.

Cultural cleanup after back-to-back scandals, ceiling of “Northwestern-style overachiever” in the new Big Ten, and long-term recruiting upside vs. Ohio State/Michigan.

The Fan Base Meltdowns

These aren’t going well.

Florida — Jon Sumrall (C / B+ / D)

The process was fine. The reaction was not.

Sumrall arrives with Steve Spurrier’s public blessing and a mandate to fix Billy Napier’s in-game disasters. But there’s a red flag worth noting: Sumrall’s Tulane teams were consistently among the most penalized in the country — the kind of undisciplined football that suggests coaching issues, not just player mistakes. Florida fans already wanted a bigger name. The D in sentiment reflects a fan base that feels the program settled.

Spurrier publicly blessing the hire, fixing Napier’s in-game messes, and whether Sumrall can weaponize UF’s NIL/portal machine fast enough in the SEC arms race.

Arkansas — Ryan Silverfield (D+ / D / D)

This is a disaster.

The fan backlash isn’t simmering — it’s boiling over into organized protests. Ryan Silverfield’s task is nearly impossible: win quickly in a 16-team SEC with a hostile home base from Day 1. The AD’s survival odds are now directly tied to Silverfield’s record. D across the board, and that might be generous.

Fan backlash/protests, AD survival odds, and if Silverfield can win quickly enough in the new 16-team SEC to quiet a hostile base.

The Clown Shows

No other way to describe these.

Penn State — TBD (INC / F / F)

The Nittany Lions are bleeding.

James Franklin is gone. The portal is circling. And Penn State is playing leverage games with agents while their roster evaporates in real time. At some point, “waiting for the right guy” becomes “watching your program collapse.” That point may have already passed.

Whether PSU finally swings for a top-5 coach, how Sexton’s leverage games play out, and how long they can sit in limbo without bleeding portal talent.

UAB — TBD (INC / F / F)

The Bill Clark era feels like ancient history now.

Former coach Trent Dilfer gets plenty of blame, but AD Mark Ingram deserves more. Together they torched everything Clark built — the goodwill, the culture, the upward trajectory. All of it gone. Now the job sits open and nobody wants it. This isn’t a “hidden gem” search. It’s a punchline. Stadium and resources exist on paper, but the dysfunction has made this one of the least attractive openings in the country.

How attractive the job really is post-Dilfer, stadium/resources vs. recent chaos, and whether UAB leans into offense again or buys a culture guy.

Still on the Board

These jobs remain open. Grades pending.

California (INC / B / B) — Cal’s identity crisis continues. Do they want academics or football? The ACC move demands an answer.

UConn (INC / C+ / C) — Independence is lonely. The next hire determines whether UConn commits to regional recruiting or another failed “national” vision.

North Texas (INC / C / C) — Serial resets in Denton. UNT needs to pick an offensive identity and stick with it.

Coastal Carolina (INC / B– / B–) — The post-Chadwell slump continues. Another spread-option innovator, or something different?

South Florida (INC / B / B) — Golesh left equity in the roster. USF has a window before FSU/UF/Miami clean up their messes.

Memphis (INC / B / B) — The Tigers launch coaches. The question is whether they want another launchpad guy or someone who stays.

The Bottom Line

Thirteen hires graded. Eight more coming.

The best hire so far? Virginia Tech landing James Franklin changes the ACC. The worst situation? Arkansas — and it’s not close.

We’ll revisit these grades in-season. Some will age like wine. Others will age like milk.

The carousel keeps spinning.

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COACHES HOT SEAT: WEEK 13 RANKINGS

Mark Haines on November 18, 2025

The clock just hit midnight on college football’s struggling coaches.

No more “next year” promises. No more “we’re close” platitudes. Week 12 stripped away the illusions and exposed the reality: some programs are moving forward, and others are circling the drain.

Jonathan Smith is 0-7 in Big Ten play. Shane Beamer blew a 27-point halftime lead in the most catastrophic collapse of the season. Mike Norvell’s Florida State is 2-12 in ACC games over two years. Bill Belichick is 0-5 against Power Four opponents in his first college season.

Athletic directors are done selling hope to angry donors. Boosters are done writing checks for mediocrity. The portal opens in three weeks, and players are already making decisions about their futures.

This is where coaching careers get defined—or destroyed.

Here are the ten coaches who entered Week 12 with everything to prove and nothing left to hide behind.

1. Jonathan Smith – Michigan State Spartans (3-7, 0-7 Big Ten)

Jonathan Smith’s seat isn’t just hot anymore. It’s molten.

Michigan State lost to Penn State 28-10 at home Saturday, marking their seventh straight defeat and officially eliminating the Spartans from bowl eligibility. That’s four consecutive seasons without a bowl game and an 0-7 Big Ten record that has Smith at 8-12 overall since arriving from Oregon State.

The numbers: Michigan State owes Smith approximately $32-33 million if they fire him now. That’s one of the most expensive buyouts in the Big Ten. However, the AD and university president, both hired after Smith arrived, have no strong ties to him and are facing mounting pressure to act.

National media outlets universally place Smith at the top of coaching hot seat lists. Fan sentiment has turned nearly uniform in calling for a change. Replacement candidate discussions are already widespread.

Smith will almost certainly coach Michigan State’s final two games, but barring a miracle turnaround, he’s coaching for his next job, not this one.

2. Mike Locksley – Maryland Terrapins (4-6, 1-6 Big Ten)

Mike Locksley just got saved by the very problem that’s destroying college football programs: money.

Maryland announced Sunday that Locksley will return for 2026 despite a six-game losing streak that dropped the Terrapins from 4-0 to 4-6. It’s the second straight season with only one Big Ten win and the 11th consecutive losing season in conference play. Locksley is now 37-47 overall at Maryland and 17-46 in Big Ten games since 2019.

Athletic Director Jim Smith made the decision based on financial reality. Maryland’s athletic department has lost $32.7 million over the past five years. Locksley’s buyout would be $13.4 million. Smith told ESPN the school is “better off pouring already-spent money into building the roster than into bringing in a new coaching staff.”

Translation: We can’t afford to fire him.

The announcement came after “Fire Locksley” chants broke out in the student section during the Indiana game. Locksley’s pressure doesn’t disappear just because he’s surviving 2025. He’s coaching on borrowed time in 2026, and everyone knows it.

3. Shane Beamer – South Carolina Gamecocks (3-7, 1-7 SEC)

Shane Beamer just orchestrated the most spectacular coaching collapse of the 2025 season.

Saturday at Texas A&M, South Carolina led 30-3 at halftime. Then came the second half. Texas A&M scored 28 unanswered points. South Carolina was shut out and managed just 76 total yards after halftime. Final score: 31-30, Aggies. It was the largest comeback in Texas A&M program history.

ESPN’s Paul Finebaum summed it up perfectly: “Shane Beamer right now just looks like a loser.”

South Carolina is now 3-7 and guaranteed a losing season. They’ve lost five straight SEC games and will miss a bowl game for the first time under Beamer. “Fire Beamer” chants have replaced the cheers.

Here’s the financial nightmare: South Carolina extended Beamer through 2030 less than a year ago. His buyout is approximately $27.9 million. Athletic Director Jeremiah Donati is now stuck with one of college football’s most expensive mistakes.

This type of historic collapse changes everything. It’s not just that they lost. It’s HOW they lost.

4. Mike Norvell – Florida State Seminoles (5-5, 2-5 ACC)

Mike Norvell just won a game and it doesn’t matter.

Florida State beat Virginia Tech 34-14 Saturday to improve to 5-5, but the win came against a 3-7 Hokies team that’s almost as bad as the Seminoles. Since being controversially left out of the 2023 College Football Playoff at 13-0, Florida State is 7-15 overall and 2-12 in ACC play.

Athletic Director Michael Alford announced in October that Norvell would remain through the end of 2025, but promised a “comprehensive assessment” after the season. Translation: Norvell is coaching his final games at Florida State.

Here’s why the delay: Money. Norvell’s buyout is approximately $53.3 million after this season. It’s the second-largest buyout in college football history.

Norvell has tried to project confidence, delivering a six-minute “championship expectation” rant recently. The problem is the results. FSU is winless on the road this season and hasn’t won a road game since November 2023.

5. Derek Mason – Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders (2-8, 1-5 Conference USA)

Derek Mason took a sabbatical from coaching after the 2022 season to rest, reflect, and spend time with family.

He should have stayed on sabbatical.

Mason is in his second season at Middle Tennessee and the program has regressed under his leadership. The Blue Raiders went 3-9 in his first year, and they’re currently 2-8 in 2025. That’s 5-17 overall and 3-11 in conference play across two seasons.

Mason replaced Rick Stockstill, who went 113-111 over 18 seasons with 10 bowl appearances. Mason hasn’t come close to matching that standard. Middle Tennessee’s two wins this season came against FCS opponents. Every FBS opponent has beaten them, often badly.

The defense, which should be Mason’s calling card, ranks among the worst in all of college football. Mason’s overall head coaching record is now 30-64 across eight years. At some point, MTSU has to ask if this experiment is worth continuing.

6. Dave Aranda – Baylor Bears (5-5, 3-4 Big 12)

Dave Aranda isn’t getting fired this season, but not for the reasons you’d hope.

After Saturday’s 55-28 home humiliation against Utah, Aranda sits at 5-5 overall and desperately needs one win in the final two games to make a bowl. His defense ranks second-worst in the Big 12 in both scoring and rush defense. For a defensive specialist hired specifically for his defensive expertise, that’s a damning indictment.

Here’s the number that matters most: 21-25. That’s Aranda’s record at Baylor with his own recruits, excluding the COVID season and the 2021 championship season built on Matt Rhule’s inherited roster.

However, Aranda is still employed because athletic director Mack Rhoades took a leave of absence November 12 amid an ongoing investigation. Interim ADs don’t make coaching changes of this magnitude.

It’s not merit. It’s institutional paralysis.

7. Luke Fickell – Wisconsin Badgers (5-6, 3-5 Big Ten)

Luke Fickell went from College Football Playoff coach to coaching for his job in three years.

After leading Cincinnati to the CFP in 2021, Fickell was hired by Wisconsin with enormous expectations. Instead, Wisconsin has regressed. Fickell is now 16-19 overall at Wisconsin and 9-15 in Big Ten play. His teams have produced losing records in two of three full seasons.

The Badgers went scoreless in back-to-back games against Iowa and Ohio State earlier this season, marking the first time that has happened since 1977. Wisconsin hasn’t won a Big Ten home game in over a calendar year.

Here’s the ironic twist: Fickell just received a contract extension through 2032 and a public vote of confidence from AD Chris McIntosh. His buyout is estimated to be around $27.5 million.

Wisconsin is on track for its second straight losing season after 22 consecutive bowl appearances. Fickell gets 2026 to prove he can turn it around, but the pressure will be immense from Day One.

8. Bill Belichick – North Carolina Tar Heels (4-6, 2-4 ACC)

The greatest football coach in history is learning that college football is a different game.

Bill Belichick, winner of six Super Bowls with the Patriots, arrived at North Carolina with enormous fanfare. Instead, he’s 4-6 overall and 0-5 against Power Four opponents. UNC’s losses weren’t just defeats. They were blowouts that exposed fundamental problems with Belichick’s transition to college football.

“It’s an unstructured mess,” a source told WRAL News in October. Reports emerged that Belichick hadn’t “had a conversation with most of the guys on defense.” The Tar Heels rank last in the ACC in total offense and scoring.

At 72 years old, in his first college job ever, Belichick is discovering that recruiting 18-year-olds, managing NIL, and coaching the portal era requires skills he never needed in the NFL.

UNC’s administration sold fans on Belichick, leading them to the playoffs. Instead, they’re fighting for bowl eligibility and dealing with reports of organizational chaos.

9. Justin Wilcox – California Golden Bears (6-4, 3-3 ACC)

Justin Wilcox sits at 6-4 overall and 3-3 in ACC play, a respectable first season navigating conference realignment.

But the pressure has never been higher.

Fan sentiment has turned decisively against Wilcox, with widespread calls for his dismissal dominating the Cal community. This isn’t about the record. It’s about nine years of incremental progress that never accumulates into sustained success.

Then there’s Ron Rivera. Cal’s new General Manager has given Wilcox conditional support, stating that “another victory or two” in the final stretch will be key in determining his future. That’s not a vote of confidence. That’s measured pressure from above.

When your GM says your fate depends on winning one or two games in a 6-4 season, you’re coaching under scrutiny from fans who’ve already moved on and leadership that’s watching closely.

10. Mark Stoops – Kentucky Wildcats (5-5, 2-5 SEC)

Mark Stoops just beat Tennessee Tech 42-10 Saturday, extending Kentucky’s winning streak to four games.

And his pressure level hasn’t budged an inch.

The win over an FCS opponent was expected, and while Stoops praised “this team’s attitude and effort,” beating Tennessee Tech doesn’t change the fundamental calculus around his job security. Fan sentiment remains sharply divided.

What protects Stoops isn’t the four-game winning streak. It’s the $40.5 million buyout that must be paid in full within 60 days if he’s fired. After critical wins at Auburn and over Florida, AD Mitch Barnhart voiced full support, saying Kentucky is “taking steps” back up the mountain.

Kentucky sits one win away from bowl eligibility with two games remaining. The pressure at #10 reflects this: the four-game streak has eased the immediate crisis, but beating an FCS team doesn’t resolve long-term doubts.

WANT TO SEE WHERE YOUR COACH RANKS?

The top 10 are racing against the clock.

But coaching pressure doesn’t stop at #10. A $40.5 million buyout protects Mark Stoops (#10) despite 13 years of middling results. Justin Wilcox (#9) is 6-4 but facing conditional support from his GM. Luke Fickell (#7) just got extended through 2032 despite losing 9 of his last 14 games.

Every FBS coach is ranked based on actual pressure, not speculation about who might be fired.

Subscribers to our newsletter get the full story. Each week, you’ll receive comprehensive profiles of all the top 10 coaches with contract details, buyout numbers, replacement candidates, and insider analysis you won’t find anywhere else. Additionally, our weekly Hot Seat Deep Dive provides an in-depth examination of one coach’s situation. This week: Dave Aranda at Baylor – how administrative chaos became a coaching lifeline, and why institutional paralysis might be the only thing keeping him employed.

Subscribe here to get the complete analysis delivered to your inbox every week.

Want to know where your coach stands? View rankings of all 136 FBS coaches.

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Week 12 Coaches Hot Seat Rankings

Mark Haines on November 10, 2025

Week 11 exposed the pretenders. Week 12 eliminates them. This is the part of the season where athletic directors stop debating and start deciding. Where donor patience either holds or shatters entirely. Where recruits make final judgments about which programs are ascending and which are circling the drain. The “we’re close to turning the corner” narrative that might have worked in October doesn’t survive November. By Week 12, you either have tangible proof of progress or you’re staring at an offseason coaching search. Buyout conversations move from theoretical to tactical. Board meetings shift from “let’s give him more time” to “what’s our exit strategy?” Week 12 separates the coaches who survive the season from those who won’t make it to December. And for these ten coaches? The clock is ticking louder than ever.

1. Jonathan Smith, Michigan State

Jonathan Smith remains at #1, and the situation in East Lansing has moved from crisis to terminal. The $33M+ buyout that once seemed prohibitive is now just a number that major donors are actively working to fund. His 8-13 record isn’t just bad, it’s a complete program collapse that’s destroying Michigan State’s identity. New AD J Batt inherited this disaster and faces mounting pressure to act. Recruiting has gone from struggling to nonexistent, with elite prospects avoiding East Lansing entirely. The fan base has moved past anger into total apathy, which is the real death sentence. The question isn’t whether Smith gets fired, it’s when.

2. Mike Locksley, Maryland

Mike Locksley holds at #2, but that strong 2025 recruiting class that was his lifeline is starting to crack. Commits are taking visits elsewhere, and the locker room remains completely fractured. His 37-46 overall record tells the story of six years without real progress in the Big Ten. Fourth quarter collapses continue, and fans have stopped showing up expecting anything different. Donor support has evaporated completely, with major boosters now openly discussing replacement options. The administration’s hesitation is about the competitive coaching market, not confidence in Locksley. One more collapse and it’s over.

3. Mike Norvell, Florida State

Mike Norvell stays at #3, still clinging to the thin margin of player support that’s kept him employed. The $55M+ buyout remains the primary obstacle, but FSU is already planning for 2026 when it becomes more manageable. His 37-32 record would be fine elsewhere, but FSU expects championships, not mediocrity. Fan skepticism continues to grow as the season progresses. That Wake Forest win bought time, but not much. Another embarrassing loss puts him right back at #1.

4. Derek Mason, Middle Tennessee

Derek Mason enters the Top 10 at #4 with a catastrophic 4-17 record over two seasons. This is complete program collapse, not a rebuilding project. His SEC pedigree from Vanderbilt hasn’t translated, and the offense ranks near the bottom nationally. Donor support is gone, attendance at Floyd Stadium is embarrassing, and recruiting is nonexistent. Elite Conference USA prospects are choosing other programs because nobody wants to commit to obvious instability. The administration is trapped between Mason’s contract and the reality that every game does more damage. This isn’t a hot seat, it’s a death watch.

5. Luke Fickell, Wisconsin

Luke Fickell drops to #5, but the heat hasn’t decreased at all. All the goodwill from Cincinnati is completely gone after a 16-19 start in Madison. Wisconsin fans are openly questioning whether hiring Fickell was a massive mistake. The offense looks lost, the defense looks confused, and the administration’s demands for “foundational change” are ultimatums, not suggestions. Recruiting has flatlined, with elite Midwest prospects now choosing programs like Iowa and Minnesota over Wisconsin. Donors are calculating buyout scenarios and floating replacement names. His $7.625M salary looked smart when everyone expected success. Now it looks like an expensive anchor.

6. Justin Wilcox, California

Justin Wilcox remains at #6 as Cal’s situation reaches existential crisis levels. Nine years and a 48-54 record, with the ACC move exposing every weakness instead of creating opportunities. Fourth quarter collapses define the program now, and fans plan around expecting defeat. The real crisis is financial, donors have completely checked out and stopped funding the program. Recruiting has stagnated to the point where Cal loses battles to Mountain West schools. The administration isn’t asking whether to fire Wilcox anymore. They’re asking bigger questions about whether Cal football at this level is sustainable. That’s far more dangerous.

7. Bill Belichick, North Carolina

Bill Belichick at #7 represents the most stunning collapse of expectations in college football. Six Super Bowl rings have produced a 4-5 record that has fans mocking a hire they celebrated months ago. One Power Four win, uncertain bowl eligibility, and a coaching style built for NFL professionals that doesn’t work with teenagers. Elite recruits visit once and immediately look elsewhere. His $10M salary looked brilliant when everyone expected immediate success, now it prevents necessary program investments. The administration is losing patience and credibility with donors who expected a revolution. Every game does more recruiting damage. The experiment is failing in real time.

8. Shane Beamer, South Carolina

Shane Beamer drops to #8 after mid-season coordinator firings that were pure desperation. His 32-28 record looks fine until you remember South Carolina expects SEC competitiveness, not fighting for bowl eligibility. The firings bought time but fixed nothing fundamental. Bowl eligibility has moved from goal to survival requirement, the minimum needed to keep his job. Booster support is now conditional, demanding actual results instead of energy and South Carolina ties. Recruiting is suffering as elite prospects watch the chaos and commit elsewhere. The administration has loaded the gun. Anything less than a bowl game and he’s done.

9. Dave Aranda, Baylor

Dave Aranda falls to #9, and the shine from that 2021 Big 12 Championship has completely worn off. His 36-34 record through six seasons isn’t disastrous, it’s just deeply uninspiring for a program that expects more. Aranda wins just enough games to avoid the hot seat entirely, but never enough to generate real momentum or championship buzz. The fan base has moved from “trust the process” to “what exactly is the process?” as another mediocre season unfolds. Recruiting has slowed as elite Texas prospects look for programs with clearer upward trajectories. Aranda’s defensive expertise was supposed to be the foundation for sustained success, but it hasn’t translated into consistent winning. The remaining games will determine whether Baylor sees enough to commit long-term or starts exploring other options.

10. Mark Stoops, Kentucky

Mark Stoops barely holds #10 after one Auburn win bought temporary relief from what felt like inevitable disaster. His 81-78 record through 13 seasons is both Kentucky’s most successful era ever and clear evidence of a program that’s hit its ceiling. Multi-year SEC losing streaks and repeated blowouts have created frustration throughout the program. The real problem? Kentucky would owe Stoops nearly $38 million if they fired him after this season, and the contract requires the full amount be paid within 60 days. That’s not just expensive, it’s functionally impossible for Kentucky’s athletic budget. Stoops is essentially untouchable no matter how the season ends. The remaining games aren’t about his job security, they’re about whether another year of known limitations is acceptable. Thirteen years of evidence suggests he’s taken Kentucky as far as he can.

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Newsletter subscribers get the expanded treatment, deep dives on each of the top 10 coaches, game previews that actually matter, and curated stories about coaching moves and timely college football topics delivered straight to their inbox every Tuesday and Friday during the season. Tuesdays bring you the updated rankings with insider analysis on who’s rising and falling. Fridays give you the weekend preview, breaking down which coaches are coaching for their jobs in the games that matter most. No fluff. No filler. Just the insider information you need to stay ahead of the coaching carousel before it becomes headlines everywhere else. This isn’t just another college football newsletter, it’s your edge on understanding the power dynamics, buyout negotiations, and behind-the-scenes pressure that determines who stays and who goes. Subscribe here and get the complete picture twice a week.

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Week 11 – Coaches Hot Seat Rankings

Mark Haines on November 4, 2025

Week 11 is where the pretenders get exposed.

This is the part of the season where the rubber meets the road. Where your team and your staff prove they’ve “got it” – or don’t. The early-season excuses are gone. The “we’re still figuring things out” narrative doesn’t fly anymore. By Week 11, you either have a culture that wins close games, a roster that believes in the system, and donors who are writing checks – or you’re watching your career circle the drain in real-time. This is where coaches earn their next contract or start quietly updating their resumes. This is where athletic directors stop taking “we’ll turn it around” phone calls and start having very different conversations. Week 11 separates the programs that are building something real from those that are just delaying the inevitable. And for these ten coaches? We break each situation down below:

1. Jonathan Smith, Michigan State

Jonathan Smith is sitting on a $33M-$37M buyout that’s paid out over 62 monthly installments – the kind of number that makes firing him financially painful but not impossible. The problem? He’s already lost his fan base after humiliating losses, recruiting is cratering, and donors are hesitant to continue funding a sinking ship. New AD J Batt inherited this mess and now faces a massive decision to either force Smith to turn it around immediately or mobilize donors to eat the buyout and start over. Michigan State isn’t just losing games – they’re losing their identity. Every day Smith remains in place is another day that elite recruits look elsewhere.

2. Mike Locksley, Maryland

Mike Locksley has lost the locker room, and everyone knows it. NIL chaos has players checked out, fourth-quarter collapses have become routine, and October was an unmitigated disaster that had fans chanting for his firing in the stadium. His seat is scorching, #2 on the hot seat rankings, but he’s got one lifeline: a legitimately strong 2025 recruiting class that’s making the administration hesitate before pulling the trigger. The job market is also flooded with high-profile openings, which might give him a reprieve simply because Maryland doesn’t want to get into a bidding war and strike out. But make no mistake: donor support is evaporating, administration confidence is gone, and Locksley is one more ugly loss away from a Sunday morning firing.

3. Mike Norvell, Florida State

Mike Norvell dropped from #1 to #3 on the hot seat after a win over Wake Forest and enough player support to give the administration cover to hesitate on his $55M+ buyout. But dropping two spots isn’t a victory – it’s a temporary reprieve. He barely survived recent board meetings where his future was debated in real-time, boosters are in open revolt, and fan skepticism is at an all-time high. Behind closed doors, FSU is already planning for 2026 when that buyout becomes more manageable. Questions about fit, contract structure, and whether this marriage ever made sense continue to linger. Norvell bought himself time, but one more blowout loss and he’s right back at #1.

4. Luke Fickell, Wisconsin

Luke Fickell is torching every ounce of goodwill he built at Cincinnati, and it’s happening fast. Multiple blowout losses and a stagnant offense have Wisconsin fans throwing remotes through their TVs, while recruiting momentum has completely flatlined. The administration isn’t just disappointed, they’re demanding foundational change, the kind of language that means “fix this NOW or we’re moving on.” Recent staff decisions have only accelerated skepticism, and fan patience has completely evaporated, with social media ablaze and calling for a reset. The only thing keeping Fickell employed is his buyout, but donors are starting to ask the question every coach dreads: “How much would it actually cost to start over?” One more embarrassing loss, and that buyout begins looking like a bargain.

5. Justin Wilcox, California

Justin Wilcox has mastered the art of losing games in the fourth quarter, and Cal fans have moved past frustration into full acceptance mode. Navigating conference realignment chaos while failing to elevate recruiting has left the program stagnant at a time when adaptation is everything. The death knell? Donors have checked out completely; they’ve stopped writing checks, stopped believing in the vision, and started asking pointed questions about ROI. Doubts about future competitiveness aren’t whispers anymore; they’re loud conversations in booster meetings. Wilcox isn’t just on shaky ground – he’s standing on a fault line, and everyone is waiting for the earthquake.

6. Bill Belichick, North Carolina

Bill Belichick at North Carolina was supposed to be a revolution with six Super Bowl rings, transforming college football. Instead, it’s looking like a very expensive mistake. One Power Four win. Bowl eligibility hanging by a thread. And a coaching style built for NFL veterans that doesn’t translate to 18-year-olds who need recruiting, not drafting. The administration is losing patience fast because elite prospects are looking at UNC and seeing chaos, not a championship pedigree. Recruiting hasn’t improved; it has actually gotten worse. The contract details are murky but undoubtedly expensive, the kind of money that looked brilliant when everyone thought he’d win immediately and catastrophic now that he’s not. The experiment is failing, and everyone is watching to see how quickly UNC pulls the plug.

7. Shane Beamer, South Carolina

Shane Beamer fired his offensive coordinator and offensive line coach mid-season, a desperate move that screams “I’m fighting for my life.” And it might not be enough. Insiders are saying it plainly: unless South Carolina rallies for bowl eligibility, Beamer is done. Booster support is crumbling fast, with the money people who once championed his energy and “South Carolina guy” credentials now demanding answers about results. Pressure is coming from everywhere—fans, administration, donors—all pointing to the same conclusion: the current vision isn’t working. Recruiting is getting massacred by staff instability, because elite prospects don’t commit to programs where coaches are getting fired mid-season and the head coach’s future is a weekly radio debate. Beamer bought himself time with those firings, but bowl eligibility isn’t just a goal anymore—it’s a job requirement.

8. Tim Beck, Coastal Carolina

Tim Beck still has the backing of Coastal Carolina’s administration, thanks to recent bowl appearances, but that institutional patience has an expiration date that’s approaching quickly. Competitive culture is struggling in a Sun Belt where parity is real, and roster retention has become a nightmare in the portal era. Donors aren’t panicking yet, they’re not calling for his head yet, but they’re watching, whispering, and starting to ask the question every coach dreads: “What happens if we miss a bowl game this year?” That’s the line in the sand. Miss the postseason and the conversation changes overnight from “let’s give him more time” to “maybe it’s time for a new direction.” Beck has a lifeline, but it’s fraying fast.

9. Dave Aranda, Baylor

Dave Aranda’s shine has completely worn off at Baylor, and the 2021 Big 12 Championship feels like ancient history. A mediocre record, zero championship buzz, and a fan base that has moved from “trust the process” to “what exactly IS the process?” has the administration and boosters doing more than watching—they’re calculating buyout logistics. That’s not hot seat attention; that’s death row. The donor base is eroding, checking out, and wondering if their money is being invested wisely. Recruiting momentum is slowing to a crawl because elite prospects can smell uncertainty from a mile away. Aranda needs a strong finish, not just bowl eligibility, but something that reminds people why Baylor hired him in the first place. Because right now? Nobody remembers, and that’s the most dangerous position any coach can be in.

10. Mark Stoops, Kentucky

Mark Stoops was this close to being fired before a dramatic win at Auburn bought him a reprieve, but one victory doesn’t erase a multi-year SEC losing streak. Years of being demolished by conference opponents have left Kentucky feeling more like a basketball school’s side project than a legitimate SEC program, and the administration has had legitimate conversations about buyout numbers and replacement candidates. The buyout is sizeable but not insurmountable, meaning if things go south again, Kentucky can afford to move on. Stoops needs two things immediately: roster confidence (players who believe they can compete in the SEC) and donor confidence (boosters who believe their money isn’t being wasted). Both are shaky right now. The remaining games aren’t just about bowl eligibility; they’re about survival, and everyone is watching.

Where does your coach rank?

Check out the complete rankings for all 136 FBS coaches here.

Want the full story on every coaching hot seat in America?

Newsletter subscribers get the expanded treatment, deep dives on each of the top 10 coaches, game previews that actually matter, and curated stories about coaching moves and timely college football topics delivered straight to their inbox every Tuesday and Friday during the season. No fluff. No filler. Just the insider information you need to stay ahead of the coaching carousel before it becomes headlines everywhere else. This isn’t just another college football newsletter—it’s your edge on understanding the power dynamics, buyout negotiations, and behind-the-scenes pressure that determines who stays and who goes. Subscribe here and get the complete picture twice a week.

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California (4-2) Hosts North Carolina (2-3) Friday Night: A Brutally Honest Game Preview Of Two Bad Teams Fighting To Prove Who Sucks Less

Mark Haines on October 17, 2025

This is not a game between two good football teams.

Let’s just get that out of the way right now. California (4-2) hosts North Carolina (2-3) on Friday night in Berkeley, and if you’re expecting offensive fireworks or elite defensive play, you’re watching the wrong game. This is a battle between two deeply flawed teams trying to figure out who can avoid embarrassing themselves on national television.

But here’s the thing: it might be wildly entertaining for all the wrong reasons.

Cal Has Perfected The Art Of Creative Losing

If you’ve followed California football for more than five minutes, you know they’ve invented approximately 47 new ways to lose football games.

They are the masters of creative catastrophe.

  • Lost 0-34 to San Diego State (a team that went 3-9 last year)
  • Got shutout at home… by a Mountain West team
  • Scored 21 points against Duke and still lost by 24
  • Beat an FCS team and act like they’re playoff contenders

The Golden Bears are the team that will drive 90 yards down the field, get inside the 5-yard line, and then somehow throw three consecutive incompletions to settle for a field goal. Or miss it. They’ll probably miss it.

This is Cal football, baby.

Bill Belichick’s Offense Is A Dumpster Fire

Meanwhile, North Carolina hired the greatest coach in NFL history and somehow made their offense worse.

The Tar Heels are averaging 11 points per game against Power 5 opponents.

Let that sink in for a second. Eleven. That’s not a typo. That’s not adjusted for pace or advanced metrics. That’s just… pathetically bad football. Here’s what UNC has accomplished this season:

  • Scored 14 points against TCU (lost by 34)
  • Scored 9 points against UCF (yes, nine)
  • Scored 10 points against Clemson
  • Beat FCS Richmond and think they’re back

The Belichick Era in Chapel Hill has been one long, painful lesson in “NFL schemes don’t work in college when you have college players.” Their offense is so dysfunctional it makes Cal’s creative losing look competent by comparison.

And that’s saying something.

The Matchups Are Hilariously One-Sided

Let’s talk about what happens when these two teams play each other.

California’s mediocre offense versus North Carolina’s terrible defense:

Cal should score. Their freshman quarterback threw for 279 yards and three touchdowns against Minnesota. UNC’s defense allows 70.3% completions (one of the worst in FBS) and gives up 40 points per game to Power 5 teams. Even Cal’s inconsistent passing attack should move the ball.

The problem? Cal also got shut out by San Diego State, so who the hell knows?

North Carolina’s abysmal offense versus California’s decent defense:

This is where the game gets decided. UNC can’t score against anyone with a pulse. Cal’s defense ranks 32nd nationally in scoring defense and should absolutely dominate this matchup. The only question is whether UNC scores 7 or 10 points before the clock hits zero.

The special teams and coaching edges:

  • Cal has an All-America return specialist (advantage: Cal)
  • Cal had a bye week to prepare (advantage: Cal)
  • Cal plays at home at 10:30pm ET (advantage: Cal)
  • Bill Belichick has eight Super Bowl rings (advantage: doesn’t matter, his offense stinks)

Everything favors California except for one tiny detail: they’re California, and they specialize in losing games they should win.

Why Cal Should Win (But Might Not)

Here’s the rational, data-driven case for why California wins this game by two touchdowns.

The numbers don’t lie:

  • Home field advantage + late-night body clock game
  • UNC’s offense is historically bad (119th in scoring nationally)
  • Cal’s defense can shut down UNC’s dysfunction
  • UNC is 0-3 against Power 5 teams with a -29 point average margin
  • Cal had extra week to prepare and gameplan

If you run this game through a computer simulation 100 times, Cal probably wins 75 of them. They’re better at almost every position. Their quarterback is inconsistent but still better than whatever UNC is running out there. Their defense is competent. They’re playing at home.

They should cruise to a 24-10 victory.

Why Cal Could Still Lose (Because They’re Cal)

But then you remember: this is California football.

And California football is chaos incarnate.

The Golden Bears have a unique talent for finding new and inventive ways to lose games they should win. Maybe their freshman QB throws four interceptions. Maybe they fumble on their own 10-yard line three times. Maybe Bill Belichick conjures up some dark NFL sorcery that confuses everyone.

Here are the ways this goes sideways:

  • Cal’s offense reverts to “San Diego State shutout” mode
  • Freshman QB makes 2-3 catastrophic mistakes
  • Red zone failures turn TDs into field goals (or misses)
  • Belichick’s desperate game plan actually works for once
  • The universe decides Cal fans don’t deserve nice things

The probability? Maybe 25%.

But that 25% is real. Cal could absolutely blow this. They’ve blown easier games. They’re probably drawing up the blueprint for how to blow this one right now.

The Real Prediction

California 24, North Carolina 10

Cal’s defense holds UNC to one garbage-time touchdown and a field goal. Cal’s offense does just enough against UNC’s awful pass defense to score three touchdowns (probably). The home crowd gets loud. The body clock matters. Bill Belichick looks confused on the sideline, wondering why his NFL plays don’t work in college.

This is the most likely outcome.

But if you’re betting the house on this game, maybe reconsider. Because Cal is involved, and Cal specializes in making their fans suffer in new and creative ways. They could win 31-7. They could lose 20-23 on a last-second field goal after blowing a 17-point lead.

That’s the beauty and terror of California football.

What To Watch For

If you’re actually going to watch this Friday night disaster, here’s what matters:

  • First 10 minutes: Does Cal’s offense move the ball easily against UNC’s defense? If yes, this game is over.
  • UNC’s first red zone trip: Can they score a TD or do they settle for a FG? (Spoiler: they’ll probably fail entirely)
  • Cal’s turnover count: If the freshman QB throws 2+ picks, UNC has a chance
  • Third quarter adjustments: Does Belichick have anything creative? (Narrator: he does not)

The over/under will probably be around 44 points. Hammer the under. Both teams stink at scoring. Both teams will settle for field goals in the red zone. Both teams will punt 12 times.

This game hits 34 total points and everyone goes home disappointed.

The Bottom Line

California should win this game because North Carolina’s offense is one of the worst in college football.

That’s it. That’s the analysis.

UNC can’t score against decent defenses. Cal has a decent defense. Math says Cal wins. But Cal also has a proud tradition of defying math and finding spectacular new ways to lose, so bring popcorn and prepare for chaos.

Final prediction: Cal 24, UNC 10 (with 40% confidence that something weirder happens)

Welcome to Friday night Pac-12… wait, ACC… wait, who even knows anymore? This is college football in 2025, where nothing makes sense and the points don’t matter unless you’re betting the under.

Enjoy the trainwreck.

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Week 8 — Coaches Hot Seat Rankings

Mark Haines on October 14, 2025

Three coaches were fired on Sunday.

Trent Dilfer. James Franklin. Trent Bray.

Gone.

When coaches start falling in October, everyone else feels it. The phone calls start. The quiet meetings happen. The pressure that was already there gets cranked up to a whole new level.

Here are the 10 coaches under the most pressure in college football right now:

1. Billy Napier, Florida (SEC)

Trent Dilfer got fired Sunday with a 3-4 record.

Billy Napier is 21-23 at Florida. One upset over Texas doesn’t erase years of mediocrity. The Gators are paying him $7 million to compete for bowl eligibility while Georgia and Alabama compete for championships.

That’s unacceptable at Florida.

2. Hugh Freeze, Auburn (SEC)

Hugh Freeze came to Auburn with a redemption story.

A second chance after Ole Miss. Auburn gave him big money, full control, everything he needed to compete. The pressure is mounting because it’s not working.

Right now, Auburn isn’t competing.

3. Mike Norvell, Florida State (ACC)

Florida State hasn’t won an ACC game since November 2023.

Fifteen straight conference losses. Two full seasons. Zero ACC wins.

Mike Norvell went from 13-1 ACC Champions to unwatchable in less than a year.

FSU beat Florida earlier this season, and the media acted like they were “back.” They’re not—they’re 0-2 in ACC play. Norvell has had two years to figure out how to win in the ACC.

At Florida State, that’s unacceptable.

4. Jeff Choate, Nevada (Mountain West)

Jeff Choate is 4-15 at Nevada.

What worked at Montana State isn’t translating to the FBS level. Choate talks about tough, physical football, but Nevada is getting pushed around. The problem isn’t philosophy—it’s execution.

Choate is running out of time.

5. Joe Moorhead, Akron (MAC)

Joe Moorhead is 10-33 at Akron.

Elite offensive coordinator at previous stops. Winner at Fordham. But the Zips move the ball, rack up yards, then stall in the red zone—that’s coaching.

A 10-33 record over four years tells the story.

6. Luke Fickell, Wisconsin (Big Ten)

Luke Fickell was supposed to save Wisconsin football.

Wisconsin gave him everything—big money, full control, time to install his system. The defense has regressed, the offense looks disjointed, and the Big Ten is exposing every weakness. Wisconsin fans don’t want to hear about systems—they want wins.

Fickell isn’t meeting the Wisconsin standard yet.

7. Butch Jones, Arkansas State (Sun Belt)

Butch Jones failed at Tennessee.

Now he’s failing at Arkansas State. The Red Wolves are underperforming, players aren’t buying in, and fans aren’t showing up. Arkansas State thought Jones learned from his Tennessee mistakes.

The results suggest otherwise.

8. Justin Wilcox, California (ACC)

Cal got a fresh start with the move to the ACC.

New conference. New competition. New expectations. And here’s the number that matters: 8 wins.

That’s what Justin Wilcox needs to keep his job.

Look at what’s left on the schedule:

  • North Carolina
  • At Virginia Tech
  • Ranked Virginia
  • At Louisville
  • At Stanford
  • SMU

Six games—Cal needs to win five of them.

Wilcox is supposed to be a defensive guru who maximizes limited resources. But the Bears are getting manhandled by ACC competition—the defense can’t stop anyone, the offense can’t score. The math isn’t mathing.

Cal has a new chancellor—an alum, Class of ’83.

They hired Ron Rivera, NFL veteran head coach, as General Manager overseeing the football program. ESPN’s Gameday came to Berkeley last season. Everyone saw the potential. Cal has poured money and resources into this program—and they’re expecting results.

Can Willcox get the Golden Bears to 8 regular-season wins?

9. Sonny Cumbie, Louisiana Tech (C-USA)

Sonny Cumbie was supposed to bring offensive firepower to Louisiana Tech.

The Air Raid disciple. The Texas Tech coordinator everyone wanted to hire. But coordinating and head coaching are two completely different jobs—the offense has been inconsistent, the defense worse, and the program feels directionless.

Coordinator success doesn’t automatically translate to head coaching success.

10. Derek Mason, Middle Tennessee (C-USA)

Derek Mason is 4-14 at Middle Tennessee.

He’s a defensive coach in an era where offense wins championships. Mason is building a 2005 program in 2025, and Middle Tennessee can barely crack 20 points per game. MTSU fans are asking: What exactly are we getting better at?

If the answer is “nothing,” the pressure builds.

The Bottom Line:

Three coaches got fired this week—more will follow.

Athletic directors are making calls. Boosters are applying pressure. Coaches who thought they were safe realize they’re not.

Want the full picture?

Our newsletter subscribers get exclusive analysis of coaches ranked 11-25—the ones trending in the wrong direction but not quite in crisis mode yet.

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Because pressure is a ranking—and everyone’s being measured.

Check out the complete 136 FBS Coaches Hot Seat Rankings.

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Clemson Is 1-3 And Desperate. North Carolina Can’t Score. Here’s Why Saturday’s ACC Matchup Will Be Ugly—And Why Clemson Wins Anyway

Mark Haines on October 3, 2025

Saturday’s ACC matchup is the college football equivalent of two drowning men fighting over a life vest.

Clemson entered 2025 as a conference championship favorite. North Carolina hired Bill Belichick—the greatest NFL coach of all time—to transform their program. Four games in, both teams are disasters. Clemson is 1-3 and reeling. UNC is 2-2 and can’t score points if their lives depended on it. One of these teams will emerge victorious. The other will spiral deeper into crisis mode.

Let me break down what the numbers reveal about both teams and why this game matters more than you might think.

Clemson: The Preseason Darling That Face-Planted

The Tigers were expected to compete for ACC titles and College Football Playoff spots.

Instead, they’ve lost three straight games and look completely lost. Their offense averages 365.3 yards per game—not terrible on paper, but they’re scoring just 18 points per game in losses. That’s the problem. Moving the ball doesn’t matter if you can’t finish drives. They’re turning the ball over 1.8 times per game while forcing only 1.3 takeaways. That -0.5 turnover margin is killing them. Their losses tell the whole story: 10-17 to LSU, 21-24 to Georgia Tech, and 21-34 to Syracuse. The only game they won was an underwhelming 27-16 victory over Troy.

Here’s what’s working:

  • Passing game: 249 yards per game, 1.5 TDs
  • Defense: Allowing 362 yards per game (solid, not spectacular)
  • Yards per play: 5.7 (respectable efficiency)

Here’s what’s broken:

  • Red zone execution: Can’t punch it in when it matters
  • Turnover battle: Losing it badly
  • Rushing attack: Just 116.3 yards per game, 1 TD per game
  • Confidence: Three straight losses will do that

This is a team with talent that’s completely underperforming expectations.

North Carolina: Bill Belichick Learns College Football Is Different

The Belichick hiring was supposed to change everything.

It hasn’t. UNC’s offense is an absolute train wreck—263.5 total yards per game. That’s not “struggling.” That’s historically bad for a Power 4 conference team. They’re averaging a pathetic 4.9 yards per play. For context, that’s the kind of efficiency you’d expect from a bottom-tier Group of 5 program. Their passing game generates just 150 yards per game. Their running game isn’t much better at 113.5 yards. They score 1.3 passing touchdowns per game and 1 rushing touchdown. Do the math: that’s 2.3 total touchdowns per game.

The losses are ugly:

  • TCU demolished them 48-14
  • UCF embarrassed them 34-9
  • Their two wins came against Charlotte (20-3) and Richmond (41-6)

Translation: They beat two teams they should have destroyed, but got destroyed by anyone decent.

The defense is actually better than you’d think—allowing 344.5 yards per game, which is actually superior to Clemson’s defense. But when your offense can’t sustain drives or score points, it doesn’t matter how well your defense plays. They’re even in the turnover battle at 0.0 per game, which means they’re not creating extra possessions to compensate for their offensive ineptitude.

Belichick is learning that NFL coaching genius doesn’t automatically translate when your quarterback can’t complete passes and your skill players can’t make plays.

The Matchup: Where Clemson Should Dominate

This game comes down to one simple fact: Clemson is better everywhere.

Their offense generates 101.8 more yards per game than North Carolina’s offense. Their 5.7 yards per play crushes UNC’s 4.9. Even though both defenses are similar, Clemson’s desperation, combined with the challenge of facing UNC’s anemic offense, creates the perfect storm for them to finally get back on track. North Carolina has shown zero ability to score against competent opponents. Clemson is competent. Barely, but competent.

The key advantages for Clemson:

  • Offensive firepower: They move the ball consistently
  • Efficiency edge: 0.8 yards per play advantage
  • Desperation: They NEED this win to salvage their season
  • Matchup: UNC can’t score on anyone

Where UNC could surprise:

  • Home field advantage
  • Clemson’s turnover problems continue
  • Belichick schemes something unexpected

But let’s be honest—UNC’s offense is too broken for any of that to matter.

My Prediction: Clemson 31, North Carolina 14

Clemson wins, and it’s not close.

They’re playing a team that averages 11.5 points in losses and can barely move the football. Even with Clemson’s struggles, they have too much talent and too much desperation to lose this game. They’ll control possession, limit UNC’s already-limited scoring opportunities, and finally find the end zone enough times to win comfortably. North Carolina will score one touchdown on a broken play or short field, add a field goal or garbage-time score, and otherwise look completely overmatched.

The real story isn’t who wins this game.

The real story is what happens next. Clemson gets a much-needed confidence boost but remains far below preseason expectations. They’re not competing for championships—they’re just trying to make a bowl game at this point. For North Carolina, this loss (and it will be a loss) raises serious questions about whether Belichick can actually fix this mess. NFL coaching legends don’t mean anything in college football if you can’t recruit, develop talent, and put together a functional offensive system.

Saturday’s game is must-watch television for all the wrong reasons—two disappointing teams desperately trying not to drown.

One will survive. The other will sink deeper.

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From Hot Seat to Playoff Hunt: How FSU and Virginia Went From College Football’s Biggest Disasters to Undefeated Juggernauts in One Season

Mark Haines on September 26, 2025

Friday Night Lights in Charlottesville
#8 Florida State (3-0) at Virginia (3-1)
Scott Stadium, Charlottesville, VA
Friday, September 26, 2025 – 7:00 PM ET

The Storylines

Florida State: From Disaster to Dynasty (Again)

The Seminoles have authored one of the most remarkable turnarounds in recent college football history. After a catastrophic 2-10 season in 2024 that saw them get outgained by 115.6 yards per game and score just 270.3 yards of total offense per contest, FSU has exploded onto the scene in 2025.

2025 Statistical Dominance:

  • 628.7 yards per game of total offense (+358.4 from 2024!)
  • 248.0 yards allowed per game on defense (-137.9 improvement)
  • +380.7 yard differential per game (a staggering +496.3 swing from 2024)
  • 363.0 rushing yards per game (up from an anemic 89.9 in 2024)

The Seminoles announced their arrival with a stunning 31-17 victory over #8 Alabama in the season opener, then followed with dominant blowouts of East Texas A&M (77-3) and Kent State (66-10). This is a program that has found its identity again after losing it completely in 2024.

Virginia: Tony Elliott Finally Breaks Through

Cavaliers head coach Tony Elliott entered 2025 as high as #7 on coaching hot seat rankings after years of mediocrity in Charlottesville. Four games into the season, he’s likely secured his job for years to come with an equally impressive transformation.

Virginia’s Renaissance:

  • 564.5 yards per game of total offense (up 56% from 360.9 in 2024)
  • 313.5 yards allowed per game (-23% improvement from 408.3)
  • +251.0 yard differential per game (up from -47.4 in 2024)
  • 251.5 rushing yards per game (+91% improvement from 131.9)

Elliott’s squad has posted signature wins over Coastal Carolina (48-7), William & Mary (55-16), and Stanford (48-20), with their only loss coming in a competitive 31-35 defeat to NC State.

Key Matchup Battles

Rushing Attacks vs. Run Defenses

This could be the decisive factor. Both teams have transformed their ground games into elite units:

  • FSU Rushing (363.0 ypg) vs UVA Rush Defense (100.3 ypg allowed)
  • UVA Rushing (251.5 ypg) vs FSU Rush Defense (78.3 ypg allowed)

Florida State’s rushing explosion has been the key to their offensive transformation, while Virginia has found a balanced attack that keeps defenses honest. However, FSU’s run defense has been even more dominant, allowing just 78.3 yards per game.

Quarterback Play

Florida State appears to have solved their 2024 quarterback carousel that featured struggling performances from D.J. Uiagalelei, Brock Glenn, and Luke Kromenhoek. The 2025 passing efficiency (70.7% completion rate, 265.7 ypg) suggests they’ve found their answer.

Virginia’s Anthony Colandrea has taken a massive step forward from his inconsistent 2024 (61.9% completion, 13 TD/11 INT) to become a precise, efficient leader (67.8% completion rate, 313.0 ypg).

Explosive Play Potential

Both offenses are now averaging over 7.0 yards per play (FSU: 8.9, UVA: 7.2), a massive increase from their 2024 struggles. The team that creates more explosive plays will likely control this high-scoring affair.

What’s At Stake

For Florida State

  • Undefeated season and potential playoff positioning
  • National credibility after the 2024 embarrassment
  • ACC Championship aspirations in their first year back to form
  • Momentum heading into the meat of their ACC schedule

For Virginia

  • Program validation under Tony Elliott’s leadership
  • ACC relevance for the first time in years
  • Upset potential against a ranked opponent at home
  • Continued hot seat relief for Elliott with a signature win

For Both Programs

This game represents the collision of two remarkable coaching turnarounds. Both Mike Norvell at FSU and Tony Elliott at UVA were facing serious questions about their futures just months ago. Now they’re leading two of the most improved teams in college football.

The Prediction

Florida State 38, Virginia 28

This should be an instant classic between two explosive offenses. FSU’s slightly more dominant statistical profile and their experience against elite competition (Alabama) give them the edge. Still, Virginia’s home field advantage and newfound confidence make this much closer than the rankings suggest.

Expect a track meet with over 1,100 total yards of offense between these two teams. The difference will likely come down to a few explosive plays and which team can get a crucial stop when needed.

Keys to Victory:

  • FSU: Establish the rushing attack early and force Virginia into a one-dimensional passing game
  • UVA: Use home crowd energy to create early momentum and keep pace in what should be a high-scoring affair

Both programs have gone from coaching hot seats to legitimate contenders in remarkable fashion. Tonight’s winner takes a massive step toward ACC Championship contention.

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Blog Article

Two Coaches, Two Seasons: How Cal vs San Diego State Became A Tale of Opposite Trajectories

Mark Haines on September 18, 2025

Cal coach Justin Wilcox started this season at #15 on our Coaches Hot Seat Rankings. This week, he sits at #41.

Cal supporters were calling for his firing. Eight years of mediocrity had worn thin on a fanbase that remembered the Jeff Tedford glory days. The move to the ACC felt like a desperate attempt to save a program—and a coach—that had lost its way.

Three games into the 2025 season, Wilcox isn’t just off the hot seat.

He’s got Cal positioned as a legitimate ACC championship contender.

The Numbers Don’t Lie

Let’s start with what actually matters: results.

2024 Cal: 6-7 record, including a bowl loss. Mediocre on both sides of the ball.

2025 Cal: 3-0 with statement wins, including a road victory at Oregon State and a home domination of Big Ten’s Minnesota.

But here’s where it gets interesting—the statistical transformation is unprecedented.

The Defensive Revolution:

  • Total Defense: 421.4 yards allowed (2024) → 280.0 yards allowed (2025)
  • That’s 141+ fewer yards per game—one of the most dramatic single-season improvements in college football
  • Rush Defense: 109.8 yards allowed → 82.3 yards allowed (-27.5 yards, -25.0%)
  • Pass Defense: 227.6 yards allowed → 197.7 yards allowed (-29.9 yards, -13.1%)

The Offensive Evolution:

  • Scoring: 23.2 ppg → 24.3 ppg
  • Total Offense: 380.1 yards → 387.7 yards
  • Passing: 258.6 yards → 269.0 yards (+10.4 yards)

This isn’t a marginal improvement. This is a systematic transformation.

The Schedule That Changes Everything

Here’s where Wilcox caught lightning in a bottle: Cal’s ACC scheduling rotation.

Teams Cal AVOIDS in 2025: Clemson, Miami, Florida State, Georgia Tech, NC State, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, Wake Forest.

Teams Cal PLAYS in ACC action:

  • @ Boston College
  • vs Duke (ACC home opener)
  • vs North Carolina (Bill Belichick’s debut season)
  • @ Virginia Tech
  • vs Virginia
  • @ Louisville (their toughest road test)
  • @ Stanford (Big Game rivalry)
  • vs SMU (potential title game preview)

Look at that list again.

Cal avoided every single ACC powerhouse except SMU—and they get the Mustangs at home in the regular season finale.

The Hot Seat Parallel That Should Terrify Sean Lewis

While Wilcox has engineered one of the most dramatic coaching turnarounds in recent memory, his Week 4 opponent represents the opposite trajectory.

Sean Lewis at San Diego State:

  • Started at #41 on our Hot Seat Rankings
  • Now sitting at #17 and climbing
  • His “AztecFAST” offense has somehow gotten WORSE in Year 2

The Numbers:

  • 2024 SDSU: 19.5 points per game (terrible)
  • 2025 SDSU: 15.5 points per game (historically bad)
  • Point Differential: -8.3 (2024) → -3.0 (2025)*

*Only improved because their defense got dramatically better while the offense cratered

The Fan Revolt: Season ticket sales down 33%. The program handed out 4,000 free tickets to get bodies in seats for Cal’s visit. Lewis is exhibiting all the warning signs of a coach about to be fired mid-season.

Saturday’s Matchup: Cal (24.3 ppg, elite defense) vs SDSU (15.5 ppg, historically bad offense)

This should be a statement win that propels Cal toward ACC title contention.

The Path to Charlotte

Here’s the reality that nobody wants to talk about: Cal has a legitimate path to the ACC Championship Game.

The New Format: No divisions. The two teams with the best ACC conference records play for the title.

Cal’s Realistic Projection:

  • Likely Wins (5 games): Boston College, Duke, Virginia Tech, Virginia, Stanford
  • Toss-ups (2 games): North Carolina (Belichick’s first year chaos), Louisville (road)
  • Statement Game (1 game): SMU at home in finale

Path to 7-1 in ACC play: Beat the teams you should beat, split the toss-ups, and upset SMU at home.

Path to 6-2 in ACC play: Same as above, but lose one of the “sure things.”

Either record likely gets Cal to Charlotte.

The Transformation Timeline

  • January 2025: Cal supporters want Wilcox fired
  • March 2025: Wilcox at #15 on Hot Seat Rankings
  • September 2025: Cal 3-0 with the most improved defense in college football
  • December 2025: Playing for an ACC Championship?

This is what great coaching looks like when everything clicks.

Wilcox didn’t just make cosmetic changes. He fundamentally transformed the identity of his program. The defense that was giving up 421+ yards per game in 2024 is now allowing just 280 yards in 2025—that’s the kind of year-over-year improvement that typically takes multiple recruiting cycles and scheme overhauls.

The Foster Parallel

Remember our piece on DeShaun Foster’s situation at UCLA? The parallels between Foster’s final days and Sean Lewis’s current predicament at San Diego State are striking:

  • Initial optimism followed by spectacular failure
  • Gimmicky offensive systems that don’t work
  • Fan revolts and administrative pressure
  • Players transferring out

But Wilcox represents the opposite trajectory.

Sometimes a coach on the hot seat doesn’t need to be fired—he needs to be challenged. The move to the ACC, the pressure from fans, the make-or-break moment seemed to unlock something in Wilcox that eight years at Cal hadn’t revealed.

The Bottom Line

Justin Wilcox started 2025 fighting for his job.

He might end it fighting for a conference championship.

The statistical improvements aren’t flukes. The schedule isn’t luck—it’s opportunity. The wins aren’t accidents—they’re the result of systematic program transformation.

Cal’s defense has improved by 141 yards per game. Their offense is more efficient. Their quarterback play is steady. Their coaching is sharp.

Most importantly, they avoid Clemson, Miami, and the ACC’s elite tier while getting most of their challenging games at home.

Prediction: Cal goes 6-2 or 7-1 in ACC play and plays for the conference championship.

Hot Seat Status: Wilcox isn’t just off our rankings—he’s building a program that could compete at the highest level for years to come.

Sometimes, the coach everyone wants fired is exactly the coach who needed the proper support and circumstances to succeed.

Justin Wilcox just found his.

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