These rankings reflect pressure, not predictions. We don’t forecast firings. We track the gap between expectations and results – the weight of buyouts, the patience of administrators, the brutal math of wins and losses in a sport that changes by the hour.
This list is a work in progress.
Openings remain unfilled. Coordinators are fielding calls. NFL franchises are circling college sidelines. By the time you read this, names may have moved to new programs, new positions, or out of the profession entirely.
What won’t change:
The decisions these coaches made in 2025. The results those decisions produced. And the pressure that follows them into the off-season.
Ten coaches.
Ten programs, stuck between the cost of change and the cost of staying the same.
#1. Mike Norvell – Florida State (5-7, 2-6 ACC)
Started 3-0 with win over #8 Alabama, collapsed to 7 losses in final 9 games.
Outgained opponents in 10 of 11 games but kept losing.
Lost to Stanford (no head coach), NC State, Florida.
Norvell publicly admitted he doesn’t have answers after losses.
Administration retained him with vague “fundamental changes” statement despite $60M+ buyout.
Zero road wins.
Fan base exhausted.
#2. Mike Locksley – Maryland (4-8, 1-8 Big Ten)
Started 4-0, finished 0-8.
Pattern repeated: 21-5 in Aug/Sept under Locksley, 15-39 after that.
Eight-game losing streak included a loss to Michigan State (winless in conference entering the game).
Now 16-43 in Big Ten play, 0-18 vs ranked Big Ten opponents.
Worst winning percentage of any Power Four coach with tenure as long as his (after Cal fired Wilcox).
“Fire Locksley” chants at Indiana game.
AD Jim Smith retained him citing $13M buyout, lack of booster money, desire to build around freshman QB Malik Washington.
Locksley: “winning has a cost.”
#3. Shane Beamer – South Carolina (4-8, 1-7 SEC)
SEC Coach of Year 2024 to hot seat in 11 months.
Entered 2025 ranked #13 after 6-game win streak, finished 4-8.
Only Power Four team never to hit 350 yards in single game all season.
Fired OC Mike Shula (after 9 games), OL coach Lonnie Teasley, RB coach Marquel Blackwell.
Fourth OC in five years incoming.
Clemson beat them 28-14 at home (6th straight loss in Columbia).
Beamer gave “one billion percent” guarantee 2026 will be different.
2026 schedule brutal: at Alabama, Florida, Oklahoma; home vs Georgia, Tennessee, Texas A&M.
#4. Dave Aranda – Baylor (5-7, 3-6 Big 12)
The 2021 Big 12 championship now feels like a different lifetime.
22-26 since that trophy.
Defense (Aranda’s specialty) ranked 112th in rushing defense, 106th in total defense, and 123rd in sacks.
Sawyer Robertson led the nation in passing yards; it didn’t matter.
Went 1-5 down stretch.
Only retained due to AD Mack Rhoades’ resignation amid investigation (alleged sideline altercation with TE Michael Trigg).
President Linda Livingstone’s retention letter read like a hostage statement: “We are not settling for mediocrity,” while keeping the coach who delivered exactly that.
37-35 at Baylor with one elite season, five years of drift.
#5. Luke Fickell – Wisconsin (4-8, 1-7 Big Ten)
Took Cincinnati to CFP.
Now 17-21 at Wisconsin with back-to-back losing seasons (first since 1991-92).
Worst record since 1-10 in 1990.
Offense historically bad: 135th of 136 FBS teams in yards (261.6), 134th scoring (12.5 PPG).
Shut out in consecutive games (Ohio State, Iowa) for the first time since 1977.
Lost to Minnesota 17-7 in the finale.
QB situation disaster—hand-picked transfers available for full season in just 11 of 33 games due to injuries.
Fired OC Phil Longo after 10 games in 2024, answered “Why does it matter?” when asked who’d call plays.
Four-star RB Amari Latimer flipped to West Virginia on signing day.
AD Chris McIntosh issued a vote of confidence and promised more resources.
6-18 since taking over program that played in 11 bowls under Rick Stockstill’s 18-year tenure.
Lost season opener to FCS Austin Peay.
Seven-game losing streak included losses to Delaware, Missouri State, Kennesaw State (all in first/second year as FBS, all bowl eligible or close).
Defense allowed 31.5 PPG. Lost four consecutive conference games by touchdown or less.
Closed with wins over 2-10 Sam Houston, 4-8 New Mexico State.
Mason is calling that “momentum.”
Retained reportedly because AD Chris Massaro may retire in 2026.
Now 33-67 as head coach.
Stanford coordinator “shine” wore off at Vanderbilt, and it wore off in Murfreesboro.
#7. Bill Belichick – North Carolina (4-8, 2-6 ACC)
The six-time Super Bowl champion went 4-8 in his first college season.
Debut: College GameDay for 48-14 loss to TCU.
Midseason WRAL report: program “unstructured mess,” “complete disaster.”
Lost five games by 16+ points.
Three FBS wins vs teams with a combined 8-28 record.
Offense last in ACC: 264.8 yards, 19.3 PPG.
GM Mike Lombardi called UNC the “33rd NFL team” at the presser.
Off-field chaos: banned Patriots scouts, assistant suspended for NCAA violations, players cited for reckless driving, 24-year-old girlfriend tabloid fixture.
Four-minute postgame presser after NC State blowout, no season recap: “I don’t have one. We haven’t done it.”
Guaranteed $10M/year through 2027.
Losing players to the portal while fielding NFL inquiries.
Three straight losing seasons (two New England, one Chapel Hill).
“Patriot Way” hasn’t translated.
#8. Scotty Walden – UTEP (2-10, 1-7 CUSA)
Turned Austin Peay into an FCS power.
5-19 in two years at UTEP.
Finished 2-10 in 2025 (one fewer win than Year 1).
Finale: 61-31 humiliation at Delaware (first FBS season, still blew out UTEP by 30).
Walden confronted Delaware coach Ryan Carty over a late field goal, calling it “classless.”
UTEP threw five interceptions that game.
Lost to Kennesaw State, Missouri State, and Jacksonville State (all FCS) a year ago.
UTEP hasn’t won a bowl game since 1967 (the longest FBS bowl drought).
Moves to Mountain West in 2026: tougher opponents, longer travel.
Age 35 with time to figure it out, but rebuild producing no results.
#9. Jay Sawvel – Wyoming (4-8, 3-5 Mountain West)
Craig Bohl built seven straight winning seasons.
Sawvel: 7-17 in two years, 4-11 conference, zero bowls.
Finished 4-8 in 2025, four-game losing streak to end season (24 combined points).
Defense solid (19.9 PPG, 23rd nationally).
Offense averaged 16 PPG (inflated by two defensive TDs).
Demoted OC Jay Johnson midseason, promoted WR coach Jovon Bouknight – didn’t help.
Beat Colorado State 28-0, then scored 17 total over the final three games.
AD Tom Burman confirmed return for Year 3, citing $2.88M buyout: “4-8 doesn’t work” but Sawvel “gives us the best chance to get it fixed.”
Mountain West losing Boise State, CSU, Fresno State, SDSU, Utah State to Pac-12.
Only 20 players remain from Bohl era, none earned all-conference honors.
Rebuild stalling.
#10. Dell McGee – Georgia State (1-11, 0-8 Sun Belt)
Two national championship rings at Georgia. 4-20 at Georgia State.
Dell McGee helped develop Nick Chubb, Sony Michel, and D’Andre Swift into NFL first-rounders.
He can’t develop a competitive Sun Belt roster.
Inherited a program that went 7-6 with a bowl win in 2023 under Shawn Elliott.
Two years later: back-to-back double-digit loss seasons.
The 2025 campaign delivered historic futility.
Lost opener at Ole Miss 63-14 (gave up nearly 700 yards).
Lost to Vanderbilt 70-28—first time allowing 70 points in program history.
Defense surrendered 40.7 PPG (135th of 136 FBS teams).
Nine-game losing streak to finish.
Only win: FCS Murray State.
The Hue Jackson hire told the story.
McGee promoted the 0-16 Browns architect (3-36-1 NFL record) to offensive coordinator after Grambling State fired him for “lack of transparency, coordination, and collaboration.”
The results: 21.1 PPG, 114th nationally.
Lost finale 10-27 at Old Dominion.
McGee’s Georgia State tenure has never held an opponent under 21 points.
Not once in 24 games.
He’s now 4-20 as a head coach at a program that made four bowls in five years before he arrived.
The “four Cs”, connected, competitive, committed, and composure, remain talking points.
Results remain absent.
AD Charlie Cobb hasn’t addressed McGee’s future publicly.
The program averaged 11,000 fans at Center Parc Stadium – when they showed up.
Year 3 brings no relief: at Georgia Tech, at LSU, at Miami on the non-conference slate.
Position coaching excellence doesn’t automatically translate to program building.
Georgia State is learning that lesson at considerable cost.
Shane Beamer is about to find out if last year’s South Carolina football season was real or just a beautiful accident.
After a breakthrough 9-4 season that nobody saw coming, South Carolina enters 2025 with championship expectations for the first time in over a decade. The Gamecocks finished ranked 19th in both major polls, posted a school-record four wins against ranked opponents, and came within inches of their first College Football Playoff appearance.
The question isn’t whether they have talent.
The question is whether they can handle the pressure of being hunted, rather than being the hunters.
“You want high expectations,” Beamer said recently. “Our players and the people in our program, I believe, embrace those high expectations and understand that with those expectations, you have to prepare the right way, that it doesn’t just happen.”
LaNorris Sellers Is Either Going to Be a Superstar or Crack Under Pressure
Everything rides on one player.
LaNorris Sellers isn’t just South Carolina’s quarterback. He’s the most valuable player in the transfer portal who chose to stay home. Sellers holds an On3 NIL Valuation of $2.7 million and turned down massive offers from playoff contenders to remain in Columbia.
His 2024 numbers tell you why everyone wanted him:
2,534 passing yards with 18 touchdowns
674 rushing yards with seven touchdowns
Just seven interceptions on 65.6% completion rate
6-0 record in his final six starts with 1,917 total yards
But here’s what separates Sellers from other “promising” quarterbacks: he got better as the season went on. Over his final six starts of the regular season, Sellers helped South Carolina go 6-0 with 1,917 yards of total offense and 17 touchdowns. When the lights got brighter, he shone brighter.
ESPN ranked him 7th in their Heisman Trophy predictions. That’s not hype. That’s recognition that Sellers has the tools to be elite in the SEC.
The pressure? Enormous. The upside? Even bigger.
Dylan Stewart Might Be the Best Pass Rusher You’ve Never Heard Of
While everyone talks about Sellers, Dylan Stewart might be South Carolina’s best player.
The sophomore edge rusher was a unanimous Freshman All-American after posting 6.5 sacks and 10.5 tackles for loss as a true freshman. But numbers don’t tell the whole story. Stewart’s 48 generated pressures were 21 more than the next true freshman pass rusher in college football.
When asked which quarterback he most wanted to sack in 2025, Stewart’s response was perfect:
“Everybody. I like to play football. I like to hit people.”
That’s the mentality that separates good players from great ones.
Stewart returns to anchor a defense that must replace multiple NFL-bound stars, including All-American safety Nick Emmanwori and SEC Defensive Player of the Year Kyle Kennard. The Gamecocks added 10 defensive transfers to maintain their identity, but Stewart is the irreplaceable piece that makes everything work.
The Transfer Portal Became South Carolina’s Secret Weapon
Innovative programs no longer only recruit high school players.
They strategically attack the transfer portal to fill specific needs. South Carolina’s approach was surgical in its precision, identifying weaknesses as early as 2024 and finding proven solutions.
Key additions that will impact immediately:
Air Noland (QB, Ohio State): Elite backup with starting experience
Rahsul Faison (RB, Utah State): Explosive runner who averaged 7+ yards per carry
Nick Sharpe, Boaz Stanley, Rodney Newsom Jr. (OL): Three interior linemen to protect Sellers
10 defensive transfers to replace NFL departures
The one area they didn’t address? Wide receiver.
South Carolina’s receiver room produced zero 400-yard receivers in 2024. Joshua Simon, a tight end, led the team with 519 yards. The development of Nyck Harbor and Mazeo Bennett Jr., plus incoming freshman speedster Malik Clark, will determine whether the passing game reaches its ceiling.
This gamble either pays off huge or becomes their biggest weakness.
The Schedule Is Brutal (And That Might Be Perfect)
South Carolina faces seven top-25 teams from 2024.
Here’s the gauntlet:
August 31: vs Virginia Tech (Atlanta) – Beamer faces his father’s former program
October 11: at LSU – First win in Baton Rouge since 1994
October 18: vs Oklahoma – Revenge game at home
October 25: vs Alabama – Another revenge game
November 1: at Ole Miss – Road test in hostile environment
November 15: at Texas A&M – Late-season trap game
“It’s a former SEC West-heavy schedule,” Beamer told SEC Network. “That’s basically what the month of October is.”
But here’s why this brutal schedule might be perfect timing: South Carolina has championship-level talent and needs championship-level tests to prove it. No more sneaking up on people. No more moral victories. Win or go home.
The Gamecocks have the talent to compete with anyone on this list.
Championship programs recruit at championship levels.
South Carolina’s 2025 recruiting class ranks in the nation’s top 20, featuring four four-star prospects who could contribute immediately. This represents a fundamental shift in how elite prospects view the program.
The standouts who could impact Year 1:
Malik Clark (WR): 4.39 speed, who addresses receiver depth
Lex Cyrus (WR): Another speed threat for the passing game
Multiple defensive prospects to maintain depth
This recruiting momentum reflects South Carolina’s elevated status under Beamer. Elite prospects now see Columbia as a pathway to NFL success, not just a stepping stone.
The foundation is being built for sustained excellence, not just one magical season.
Vegas Knows Something Everyone Else Is Missing
South Carolina’s win total sits at 7.5 games.
That number reflects both the program’s trajectory and the difficulty of its schedule. Vegas isn’t predicting collapse. They’re acknowledging that championship-level talent faces championship-level competition.
For South Carolina to reach the College Football Playoff, they need:
8+ regular season wins
Competitive performances in losses
1-2 signature victories over ranked opponents
The pieces are in place: elite quarterback play, a dominant pass rusher, strategic roster additions, and proven coaching. But the margin for error is razor-thin.
“There’s still a great hunger for what we didn’t accomplish,” Beamer said during an appearance on Josh Pate’s show. “They’ve been very purposeful, very driven since they came back and that’s exciting to see.”
The Verdict: This Is Make-or-Break Time
South Carolina enters 2025 as college football’s most fascinating storyline.
The talent level is undeniable. Sellers and Stewart represent two of the SEC’s most dynamic players. The coaching staff has proven they can develop talent and win big games. The infrastructure continues improving under Beamer’s leadership.
But championship expectations change everything.
No more flying under the radar. No more “just happy to be here” mentality. Every opponent will bring their best shot. Every game becomes a referendum on whether South Carolina belongs among the elite.
The 2025 season will answer the ultimate question: Was 2024 a launching pad or a ceiling?
With Sellers under center and Stewart terrorizing opposing quarterbacks, the Gamecocks have the foundational pieces to make their first College Football Playoff appearance. The championship window is wide open in Columbia.
Now comes the ultimate test of whether they can walk through it.
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