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Week 11 – Coaches Hot Seat Rankings

Mark Haines on November 4, 2025

Week 11 is where the pretenders get exposed.

This is the part of the season where the rubber meets the road. Where your team and your staff prove they’ve “got it” – or don’t. The early-season excuses are gone. The “we’re still figuring things out” narrative doesn’t fly anymore. By Week 11, you either have a culture that wins close games, a roster that believes in the system, and donors who are writing checks – or you’re watching your career circle the drain in real-time. This is where coaches earn their next contract or start quietly updating their resumes. This is where athletic directors stop taking “we’ll turn it around” phone calls and start having very different conversations. Week 11 separates the programs that are building something real from those that are just delaying the inevitable. And for these ten coaches? We break each situation down below:

1. Jonathan Smith, Michigan State

Jonathan Smith is sitting on a $33M-$37M buyout that’s paid out over 62 monthly installments – the kind of number that makes firing him financially painful but not impossible. The problem? He’s already lost his fan base after humiliating losses, recruiting is cratering, and donors are hesitant to continue funding a sinking ship. New AD J Batt inherited this mess and now faces a massive decision to either force Smith to turn it around immediately or mobilize donors to eat the buyout and start over. Michigan State isn’t just losing games – they’re losing their identity. Every day Smith remains in place is another day that elite recruits look elsewhere.

2. Mike Locksley, Maryland

Mike Locksley has lost the locker room, and everyone knows it. NIL chaos has players checked out, fourth-quarter collapses have become routine, and October was an unmitigated disaster that had fans chanting for his firing in the stadium. His seat is scorching, #2 on the hot seat rankings, but he’s got one lifeline: a legitimately strong 2025 recruiting class that’s making the administration hesitate before pulling the trigger. The job market is also flooded with high-profile openings, which might give him a reprieve simply because Maryland doesn’t want to get into a bidding war and strike out. But make no mistake: donor support is evaporating, administration confidence is gone, and Locksley is one more ugly loss away from a Sunday morning firing.

3. Mike Norvell, Florida State

Mike Norvell dropped from #1 to #3 on the hot seat after a win over Wake Forest and enough player support to give the administration cover to hesitate on his $55M+ buyout. But dropping two spots isn’t a victory – it’s a temporary reprieve. He barely survived recent board meetings where his future was debated in real-time, boosters are in open revolt, and fan skepticism is at an all-time high. Behind closed doors, FSU is already planning for 2026 when that buyout becomes more manageable. Questions about fit, contract structure, and whether this marriage ever made sense continue to linger. Norvell bought himself time, but one more blowout loss and he’s right back at #1.

4. Luke Fickell, Wisconsin

Luke Fickell is torching every ounce of goodwill he built at Cincinnati, and it’s happening fast. Multiple blowout losses and a stagnant offense have Wisconsin fans throwing remotes through their TVs, while recruiting momentum has completely flatlined. The administration isn’t just disappointed, they’re demanding foundational change, the kind of language that means “fix this NOW or we’re moving on.” Recent staff decisions have only accelerated skepticism, and fan patience has completely evaporated, with social media ablaze and calling for a reset. The only thing keeping Fickell employed is his buyout, but donors are starting to ask the question every coach dreads: “How much would it actually cost to start over?” One more embarrassing loss, and that buyout begins looking like a bargain.

5. Justin Wilcox, California

Justin Wilcox has mastered the art of losing games in the fourth quarter, and Cal fans have moved past frustration into full acceptance mode. Navigating conference realignment chaos while failing to elevate recruiting has left the program stagnant at a time when adaptation is everything. The death knell? Donors have checked out completely; they’ve stopped writing checks, stopped believing in the vision, and started asking pointed questions about ROI. Doubts about future competitiveness aren’t whispers anymore; they’re loud conversations in booster meetings. Wilcox isn’t just on shaky ground – he’s standing on a fault line, and everyone is waiting for the earthquake.

6. Bill Belichick, North Carolina

Bill Belichick at North Carolina was supposed to be a revolution with six Super Bowl rings, transforming college football. Instead, it’s looking like a very expensive mistake. One Power Four win. Bowl eligibility hanging by a thread. And a coaching style built for NFL veterans that doesn’t translate to 18-year-olds who need recruiting, not drafting. The administration is losing patience fast because elite prospects are looking at UNC and seeing chaos, not a championship pedigree. Recruiting hasn’t improved; it has actually gotten worse. The contract details are murky but undoubtedly expensive, the kind of money that looked brilliant when everyone thought he’d win immediately and catastrophic now that he’s not. The experiment is failing, and everyone is watching to see how quickly UNC pulls the plug.

7. Shane Beamer, South Carolina

Shane Beamer fired his offensive coordinator and offensive line coach mid-season, a desperate move that screams “I’m fighting for my life.” And it might not be enough. Insiders are saying it plainly: unless South Carolina rallies for bowl eligibility, Beamer is done. Booster support is crumbling fast, with the money people who once championed his energy and “South Carolina guy” credentials now demanding answers about results. Pressure is coming from everywhere—fans, administration, donors—all pointing to the same conclusion: the current vision isn’t working. Recruiting is getting massacred by staff instability, because elite prospects don’t commit to programs where coaches are getting fired mid-season and the head coach’s future is a weekly radio debate. Beamer bought himself time with those firings, but bowl eligibility isn’t just a goal anymore—it’s a job requirement.

8. Tim Beck, Coastal Carolina

Tim Beck still has the backing of Coastal Carolina’s administration, thanks to recent bowl appearances, but that institutional patience has an expiration date that’s approaching quickly. Competitive culture is struggling in a Sun Belt where parity is real, and roster retention has become a nightmare in the portal era. Donors aren’t panicking yet, they’re not calling for his head yet, but they’re watching, whispering, and starting to ask the question every coach dreads: “What happens if we miss a bowl game this year?” That’s the line in the sand. Miss the postseason and the conversation changes overnight from “let’s give him more time” to “maybe it’s time for a new direction.” Beck has a lifeline, but it’s fraying fast.

9. Dave Aranda, Baylor

Dave Aranda’s shine has completely worn off at Baylor, and the 2021 Big 12 Championship feels like ancient history. A mediocre record, zero championship buzz, and a fan base that has moved from “trust the process” to “what exactly IS the process?” has the administration and boosters doing more than watching—they’re calculating buyout logistics. That’s not hot seat attention; that’s death row. The donor base is eroding, checking out, and wondering if their money is being invested wisely. Recruiting momentum is slowing to a crawl because elite prospects can smell uncertainty from a mile away. Aranda needs a strong finish, not just bowl eligibility, but something that reminds people why Baylor hired him in the first place. Because right now? Nobody remembers, and that’s the most dangerous position any coach can be in.

10. Mark Stoops, Kentucky

Mark Stoops was this close to being fired before a dramatic win at Auburn bought him a reprieve, but one victory doesn’t erase a multi-year SEC losing streak. Years of being demolished by conference opponents have left Kentucky feeling more like a basketball school’s side project than a legitimate SEC program, and the administration has had legitimate conversations about buyout numbers and replacement candidates. The buyout is sizeable but not insurmountable, meaning if things go south again, Kentucky can afford to move on. Stoops needs two things immediately: roster confidence (players who believe they can compete in the SEC) and donor confidence (boosters who believe their money isn’t being wasted). Both are shaky right now. The remaining games aren’t just about bowl eligibility; they’re about survival, and everyone is watching.

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Week 8 — Coaches Hot Seat Rankings

Mark Haines on October 14, 2025

Three coaches were fired on Sunday.

Trent Dilfer. James Franklin. Trent Bray.

Gone.

When coaches start falling in October, everyone else feels it. The phone calls start. The quiet meetings happen. The pressure that was already there gets cranked up to a whole new level.

Here are the 10 coaches under the most pressure in college football right now:

1. Billy Napier, Florida (SEC)

Trent Dilfer got fired Sunday with a 3-4 record.

Billy Napier is 21-23 at Florida. One upset over Texas doesn’t erase years of mediocrity. The Gators are paying him $7 million to compete for bowl eligibility while Georgia and Alabama compete for championships.

That’s unacceptable at Florida.

2. Hugh Freeze, Auburn (SEC)

Hugh Freeze came to Auburn with a redemption story.

A second chance after Ole Miss. Auburn gave him big money, full control, everything he needed to compete. The pressure is mounting because it’s not working.

Right now, Auburn isn’t competing.

3. Mike Norvell, Florida State (ACC)

Florida State hasn’t won an ACC game since November 2023.

Fifteen straight conference losses. Two full seasons. Zero ACC wins.

Mike Norvell went from 13-1 ACC Champions to unwatchable in less than a year.

FSU beat Florida earlier this season, and the media acted like they were “back.” They’re not—they’re 0-2 in ACC play. Norvell has had two years to figure out how to win in the ACC.

At Florida State, that’s unacceptable.

4. Jeff Choate, Nevada (Mountain West)

Jeff Choate is 4-15 at Nevada.

What worked at Montana State isn’t translating to the FBS level. Choate talks about tough, physical football, but Nevada is getting pushed around. The problem isn’t philosophy—it’s execution.

Choate is running out of time.

5. Joe Moorhead, Akron (MAC)

Joe Moorhead is 10-33 at Akron.

Elite offensive coordinator at previous stops. Winner at Fordham. But the Zips move the ball, rack up yards, then stall in the red zone—that’s coaching.

A 10-33 record over four years tells the story.

6. Luke Fickell, Wisconsin (Big Ten)

Luke Fickell was supposed to save Wisconsin football.

Wisconsin gave him everything—big money, full control, time to install his system. The defense has regressed, the offense looks disjointed, and the Big Ten is exposing every weakness. Wisconsin fans don’t want to hear about systems—they want wins.

Fickell isn’t meeting the Wisconsin standard yet.

7. Butch Jones, Arkansas State (Sun Belt)

Butch Jones failed at Tennessee.

Now he’s failing at Arkansas State. The Red Wolves are underperforming, players aren’t buying in, and fans aren’t showing up. Arkansas State thought Jones learned from his Tennessee mistakes.

The results suggest otherwise.

8. Justin Wilcox, California (ACC)

Cal got a fresh start with the move to the ACC.

New conference. New competition. New expectations. And here’s the number that matters: 8 wins.

That’s what Justin Wilcox needs to keep his job.

Look at what’s left on the schedule:

  • North Carolina
  • At Virginia Tech
  • Ranked Virginia
  • At Louisville
  • At Stanford
  • SMU

Six games—Cal needs to win five of them.

Wilcox is supposed to be a defensive guru who maximizes limited resources. But the Bears are getting manhandled by ACC competition—the defense can’t stop anyone, the offense can’t score. The math isn’t mathing.

Cal has a new chancellor—an alum, Class of ’83.

They hired Ron Rivera, NFL veteran head coach, as General Manager overseeing the football program. ESPN’s Gameday came to Berkeley last season. Everyone saw the potential. Cal has poured money and resources into this program—and they’re expecting results.

Can Willcox get the Golden Bears to 8 regular-season wins?

9. Sonny Cumbie, Louisiana Tech (C-USA)

Sonny Cumbie was supposed to bring offensive firepower to Louisiana Tech.

The Air Raid disciple. The Texas Tech coordinator everyone wanted to hire. But coordinating and head coaching are two completely different jobs—the offense has been inconsistent, the defense worse, and the program feels directionless.

Coordinator success doesn’t automatically translate to head coaching success.

10. Derek Mason, Middle Tennessee (C-USA)

Derek Mason is 4-14 at Middle Tennessee.

He’s a defensive coach in an era where offense wins championships. Mason is building a 2005 program in 2025, and Middle Tennessee can barely crack 20 points per game. MTSU fans are asking: What exactly are we getting better at?

If the answer is “nothing,” the pressure builds.

The Bottom Line:

Three coaches got fired this week—more will follow.

Athletic directors are making calls. Boosters are applying pressure. Coaches who thought they were safe realize they’re not.

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The Mike Gundy Era Is Over (Whether Oklahoma State Admits It Or Not)

Mark Haines on September 23, 2025

Oklahoma State’s legendary coach has become a cautionary tale about staying too long at the party

Here’s what nobody wants to say out loud.

Mike Gundy is done. Not “struggling.” Not “going through a rough patch.” Not “needing time to adjust to the new landscape.” Done.

And the numbers don’t lie—even when the narrative tries to.

The Brutal Reality Check

Let me paint you a picture of just how far Oklahoma State has fallen.

172.3 passing yards per game. That’s it. That’s the offensive explosion Mike Gundy has engineered in 2025. For context, most high school teams throw for more than that. 0.3 passing touchdowns per game. You read that correctly. In three games, Oklahoma State has thrown ONE touchdown pass. Uno. A single aerial score. 426.7 yards allowed per game. The defense—if we can even call it that—is surrendering nearly 7 yards every time an opponent snaps the ball.

But here’s the number that should make every Oklahoma State administrator’s blood run cold.

When Legends Become Liabilities

Twenty years ago, Mike Gundy was the answer to Oklahoma State’s prayers.

He turned the Cowboys into a consistent winner. Eighteen straight winning seasons. Five major bowl appearances. 102 Big 12 wins—third in conference history. He made Oklahoma State a national presence. But success has an expiration date. And Gundy’s expired somewhere between his “I’m a man! I’m 40!” rant and losing to Tulsa at home for the first time since the Clinton administration.

The statistical evidence isn’t just bad—it’s historically catastrophic.

The $15 Million Question

Here’s where things get interesting (and expensive).

Oklahoma State owes Gundy $15 million if it fires him before 2027. That’s a lot of money for a school that’s already struggling with NIL funding and watching their coach publicly complain about Oregon’s “$40 million roster.” But you know what’s more expensive than $15 million? Irrelevance. Every game Gundy stays, every embarrassing loss, every empty seat in Boone Pickens Stadium—that’s the real cost.

That’s the price of watching a proud program become a punchline.

The Oregon Excuse Factory

Before Oklahoma State got boat-raced 69-3 by Oregon, Gundy spent his press conference whining about financial disadvantages.

He suggested teams like Oregon shouldn’t play teams with fewer resources. This is where we separate legends from losers. Great coaches find ways to win with what they have. Average coaches make excuses about what they don’t have. Guess which category Gundy has fallen into? Two weeks after complaining about Oregon’s spending, Tulsa—with a NIL budget smaller than most high school booster clubs—walked into Stillwater and won.

The excuses don’t work when you’re getting out-coached by teams that can’t even spell “NIL.”

The Statistical Smoking Gun

Let’s discuss what good coaching looks like versus what Oklahoma State is currently receiving.

Elite programs adapt. Oklahoma State’s passing game has gotten worse every year. Elite programs develop talent. The Cowboys have more transfers than touchdowns. Elite programs win games they should win. Oklahoma State can’t beat Tulsa at home. Elite programs prepare for the future. Gundy hired two coordinators who hadn’t called plays since 2021. This isn’t about NIL. This isn’t about the transfer portal. This isn’t about “the changing landscape of college football.”

This is about a coach who stopped evolving while the game passed him by.

The Uncomfortable Truth

Mike Gundy gave Oklahoma State twenty incredible years.

He deserves gratitude, respect, and a place in the school’s Hall of Fame. What he doesn’t deserve is another season to damage further the program he helped build. The fans know it—they booed at halftime against Tulsa and left early. The media knows it—even OSU’s own radio broadcast called it “the worst sore we’ve seen in a long time.” The administration knows it—they restructured his contract in December with a $1 million pay cut and modified buyout terms.

Everyone knows it except the man making $6.75 million to go 1-2 against teams like Tennessee-Martin, Oregon, and Tulsa.

The Way Forward

Oklahoma State has two choices.

Pay the $15 million and start rebuilding now. Watch their program become the laughingstock of the Big 12. The first option is expensive. The second option is fatal. Great organizations make difficult decisions before they become impossible ones. They cut ties with legends before legends become liabilities. Mike Gundy was the right coach for Oklahoma State for twenty years.

But the Mike Gundy Era is over.

The numbers don’t lie.

The results speak for themselves. And sometimes, the most brutal truth is that every great story has an ending. Mike Gundy’s story at Oklahoma State was beautiful.

But it’s time to write the final chapter.

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Kansas State Football 2025 Season Preview: Wildcats Poised for Big 12 Championship Run

Mark Haines on May 9, 2025

The Kansas State Wildcats aren’t just building a football program but constructing a dynasty.

Coming off their third consecutive 9-win season, the Wildcats have positioned themselves among the nation’s elite. Only Alabama, Clemson, Georgia, Notre Dame, Ohio State, Oregon, and Ole Miss can match K-State’s remarkable consistency over the last four years.

Let’s explain why 2025 could be the year the Wildcats finally break through to the College Football Playoff.

A Culture of Resilience That Few Programs Can Match

The defining moment of Kansas State’s 2024 season wasn’t a blowout win or a highlight-reel touchdown.

It was the greatest bowl comeback in school history—rallying from a 34-17 deficit to claim a 44-41 Rate Bowl victory that showcased the relentless culture Chris Klieman has built in Manhattan.

This is a program that refuses to flinch when facing adversity:

  • Three straight seasons with at least 9 wins
  • A run game that averaged a staggering 215.5 yards per game in 2024
  • A defense that strangled opposing ground attacks, allowing just 118.7 rushing yards per contest
  • A record-setting quarterback returning to lead an even more explosive offense

The foundation is rock solid. The ceiling? It might just be championship hardware.

Avery Johnson: The Next Great Dual-Threat QB Ready for Stardom

Remember when Collin Klein terrorized Big 12 defenses with his unique blend of power and precision?

Avery Johnson might be even better.

The junior quarterback enters 2025 coming off a sophomore campaign where he:

  • Threw for 2,712 yards and a school-record 25 touchdowns
  • Added 605 rushing yards and 7 scores on the ground
  • Finished fourth in school history in pass attempts, fifth in completions, and passing yards
  • Became one of only nine quarterbacks in the nation with at least 25 passing TDs and seven rushing TDs

“We’re in May and nobody knows what their roster is going to be for the season,” Klieman said recently. “But [we retain] a key cog in Johnson. The Wildcats are expected to be among the favorites to claim the Big 12 Conference title and should be ranked when they open the 2025 season against Iowa State in Dublin, Ireland.”

The scary part? Johnson is just scratching the surface of his potential.

The Backfield That Nobody Wants to Face

Good luck getting any sleep if you’re a defensive coordinator preparing for Kansas State.

The Wildcats’ backfield boasts three distinct running styles, each capable of exploiting defensive weaknesses.

  • Dylan Edwards returns after a breakout 2024 season highlighted by his Rate Bowl heroics.
  • Nebraska transfer Gabe Ervin Jr. (6’0″, 220 pounds) brings power and physicality as a complementary piece.
  • Recently signed Antonio Martin Jr. adds yet another dimension to an already loaded room

In 2024, K-State became the only Power 4 team in the country with three players averaging at least 5.4 yards per carry (a minimum of 70 attempts).

Think about that for a second.

The 2025 version might be even more dangerous.

Transfer Portal Mastery That’s Changing the Program’s Ceiling

The old Kansas State was known for developing overlooked recruits into NFL players.

The new Kansas State? They’re still doing that but also winning big in the transfer portal.

The Wildcats signed a modern-era high of 14-15 transfers for 2025, addressing specific needs while maintaining the core of last year’s successful team:

  • Boston College transfer Jerand Bradley (6’5″, 222 pounds) gives Johnson a massive target who has already proven himself in the Big 12 at Texas Tech
  • Purdue transfer Jaron Tibbs and TCU transfer Caleb Medford transform a once-thin receiver room into a strength
  • High-upside defensive additions like Alabama linebacker Jayshawn Ross and Ohio State linebacker Gabe Powers bring blue-blood pedigrees to Manhattan.
  • Offensive line reinforcements arrived via JB Nelson (Penn State), Terrence Enos Jr. (Pittsburgh), and George Fitzpatrick (Ohio State)

The days of K-State being outmatched athletically are over. Now they’ve got the coaching AND the players to compete with anyone.

The Hidden Problems That Could Derail Championship Dreams

Not everything in Manhattan is perfect; ignoring these issues would be a mistake.

Two concerning statistical trends from 2024 could undermine K-State’s championship aspirations:

  • The Wildcats averaged 5.5 penalties per game (45.7 yards), including a season-high 9 penalties for 96 yards against West Virginia
  • Their turnover margin was perfectly neutral (16 committed, 15 forced), limiting momentum-changing opportunities in close games

These numbers point to fixable discipline issues that seem incongruent with what is otherwise one of the most stable coaching staffs in the Big 12.

For a team with slim championship margins, these self-inflicted wounds could be the difference between playing for a title in December and watching from home.

Additional Challenges That Bear Watching

Beyond the statistical concerns, several roster questions need answering:

The depth of quarterbacks behind Johnson is uncertain, which could be significant considering the physical demands of his playing style.

  • The offensive line must build cohesion quickly after losing several veteran starters.
  • Defensive depth, particularly in the front seven, was strained during spring practice due to injuries.
  • The new NCAA 105-man roster cap hits developmental programs like K-State especially har.d

None of these issues are insurmountable, but they can make the difference between a good and great team.

A Schedule Designed for National Attention

The 2025 campaign starts with the kind of spotlight few K-State teams have ever experienced.

The Aer Lingus College Football Classic against Iowa State on August 23 in Dublin, Ireland, marks just the second international game in program history. The winner immediately positions itself as an early Big 12 frontrunner.

Other key schedule highlights include:

  • Non-conference tests against North Dakota (Aug. 30) and Army (Sept. 6) before a fascinating “non-conference” Big 12 matchup at Arizona (Sept. 13)
  • Home games against UCF (Sept. 27), TCU (Oct. 11), Texas Tech (Nov. 1), and Colorado (Nov. 29)
  • Challenging road tests at Baylor (Oct. 4), Kansas (Oct. 25), Oklahoma State (Nov. 15), and first-time opponent Utah (Nov. 22)

The November stretch will define the season, with three of their final four games on the road before closing at home against Colorado.

Big 12 and CFP Outlook: The Window Is Now

Vegas oddsmakers have K-State’s over/under at 8.5 wins, but that number feels conservative.

The Wildcats are co-favorites (+550) to win the Big 12 alongside Arizona State, and for good reason.

What separates Kansas State in the expanded College Football Playoff era is its complete package:

  • Elite quarterback play from a true dual-threat talent
  • Explosive backfield with multiple rushing styles
  • Improved receiving corps with size and speed
  • Traditionally strong defense built to stop the run
  • Coaching continuity in a conference full of turnover

“The Wildcats are a perennial Big 12 contender, and the program should return to form after an inconsistent first year for quarterback Avery Johnson,” noted one analysis from CBS Sports. “To help, KSU brought in plenty of receiver help next to Jayce Brown, including Jerand Bradley and Caleb Medford. The defense has been consistent under Chris Klieman.”

The Big 12 has recently lacked a dominant national contender. Kansas State has the perfect opportunity to fill that void.

Coaching Staff Built for Modern College Football

As Klieman enters his seventh season, he’s assembled a staff designed for the new realities of college football.

The restructured coaching team includes:

  • Nate Kaczor as special teams coordinator, bringing 16 years of NFL experience
  • Matt Kardulis (assistant safeties coach) and David Orloff (outside linebackers coach) are providing specialized position coaching
  • Sean Maguire, promoted to assistant quarterbacks coach, continues to mentor Avery Johnson

The offensive approach under Matt Wells will leverage multiple personnel groupings and creative substitution patterns to maximize K-State’s depth at skill positions.

Defensively, coordinator Joe Klanderman’s unit has been a model of consistency, particularly against the run. The challenge will be maintaining that standard despite roster turnover and the 105-player limit.

The Bottom Line: Championship Window Is Wide Open

Kansas State football has never been better positioned for national relevance.

Combining an elite quarterback-running back tandem, strategic transfer portal additions, and a proven coaching staff creates a foundation for Big 12 title contention and potentially the program’s first College Football Playoff appearance.

The challenges are real—quarterback depth, offensive line cohesion, and cleaning up penalties and turnovers all bear watching—but the Wildcats’ track record suggests they’ll be in the thick of the conference race deep into November.

With a dramatic Ireland opener against Iowa State looming, K-State’s path to championship contention begins immediately.

If Avery Johnson takes the expected next step in his development and the transfer additions integrate smoothly, the Wildcats won’t just be playing for a conference title.

They could be playing for a whole lot more.

The Next Billion Dollar Game

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COLORADO FOOTBALL 2025: THE PRIME EFFECT ENTERS PHASE II

Mark Haines on May 7, 2025

Are you ready for Colorado football without Shedeur Sanders and Travis Hunter?

As we approach the 2025 college football season, the question on everyone’s mind is simple: Can Deion “Coach Prime” Sanders keep the Colorado football renaissance alive without his superstars?

The Meteoric Rise Nobody Saw Coming

Coach Prime inherited a disaster when he walked into Boulder two years ago.

The Buffaloes were fresh off a 1-11 season with fans questioning whether Colorado football would ever be relevant again. Fast forward just 24 months, and the transformation has been nothing short of remarkable:

  • Year 1: Four wins (a 300% improvement)
  • Year 2: Nine wins, including a 7-2 Big 12 record
  • Top 25 rankings in both AP and Coaches polls
  • An Alamo Bowl appearance
  • A Heisman Trophy winner in Travis Hunter

Now Sanders enters Year 3 with a freshly inked contract extension, making him one of college football’s highest-paid coaches, reportedly over $10 million annually, following the Buffaloes’ flirtation with both a Big 12 Championship Game berth and potential College Football Playoff spot last season.

But 2025 isn’t about building on success with established stars. It’s about proving the program can sustain excellence without them.

Star Power Exodus Creates Massive Opportunities

The 2025 Buffaloes are essentially a new team.

Gone are the cornerstones of Colorado’s resurgence:

  • Quarterback Shedeur Sanders
  • Two-way star and Heisman Trophy winner Travis Hunter (drafted No. 2 overall by Jacksonville)
  • Safety Shilo Sanders
  • Eight defensive starters from 2024

Colorado returns only about 50% of its overall production, with just 44% returning on offense (ranking 99th nationally in returning production). But where others see problems, Coach Prime sees opportunity.

“We’ve established expectations. So now you expect us to perform a certain way. You expect us to win. You expect us to be exciting… You just have expectations of us now. That’s what we’ve established.”

The 2025 season represents Phase II of the Colorado rebuild—moving from star-driven success to program sustainability.

The QB Battle Everyone’s Watching

This year’s single most important position battle in Boulder is under center.

Two candidates have emerged to replace Shedeur Sanders:

Kaidon Salter (Liberty Transfer)

  • Threw for 4,762 yards and 47 touchdowns (just 12 INTs) over past two seasons
  • True dual-threat capabilities
  • 25 games of college experience
  • Could provide a new dimension to Colorado’s offense

Julian “Juju” Lewis (Five-Star Freshman)

  • No. 6 quarterback in the 2025 recruiting class
  • Reclassified to join Colorado a year early
  • Phenomenal arm talent
  • Represents the program’s future

The quarterback competition took center stage at Colorado’s spring game, with fans packing Folsom Field to get their first glimpse of these potential stars.

Most insiders believe Salter has the early edge due to his experience, potentially serving as a bridge to Lewis as the young quarterback acclimates to college football. But Coach Prime has never been afraid to play the best talent, regardless of age or experience.

Portal Power: How Sanders Is Rebuilding Through Transfers

If there’s one thing Coach Prime has mastered, it’s the transfer portal.

Colorado has brought in 26 transfer portal commitments for 2025, ranking 20th nationally and 2nd in the Big 12 for transfer classes.

Key additions include:

  • Noah King (S, Kansas State) – four-star transfer
  • Larry Johnson III (OL, Tennessee)
  • John Slaughter (DB, Tennessee)
  • DeKalon Taylor (RB/PR, Incarnate Word)
  • Jehiem Oatis (DT, Alabama)

Unlike the previous year’s massive overhaul (43 transfers in 2024), the 2025 portal class is smaller but more targeted, reflecting a more stable foundation and focus on culture fit.

Coach Sanders has specifically emphasized recruiting “grown men” for positions of need, including defensive tackle, linebacker, safety, cornerback, receiver, running back, tight end, and multiple offensive line spots.

Offense 2025: Can The Buffs Finally Run The Ball?

Colorado’s offense was a Jekyll and Hyde story in 2024.

The good: 32.9 points per game, 4,134 passing yards (318.0 per game), and 37 passing touchdowns.

The bad: An abysmal rushing attack that ranked dead last in the FBS at just 65.2 yards per game and 2.5 yards per carry.

This imbalance proved fatal in losses like the Kansas game, where the Buffs were outgained on the ground 331-42.

To address this glaring weakness, Sanders made perhaps his most impactful coaching hire yet: NFL Hall of Famer Marshall Faulk as running backs coach.

The receiver room still looks promising despite losing Travis Hunter. Emerging talents like Drelon Miller, who caught 32 passes for 277 yards and 3 TDs as a true freshman, will look to step into more prominent roles.

The offensive line, which allowed 39 sacks (3.0 per game) in 2024 despite Sanders’ quick release, continues to be reinforced through transfers. After being a significant liability in 2023, the unit showed improvement in 2024 and is expected to take another step forward in 2025.

Defense: The Foundation Of Colorado’s Future Success?

While the offense gets the headlines, Colorado’s defense significantly improved in 2024.

What you need to know:

  • Allowed 23.1 points and 351.9 yards per game
  • Improved by over 100 yards and nearly 12 points per game from 2023
  • Led the Big 12 in tackles for loss (99) and sacks (39)
  • Cornerback DJ McKinney anchored the secondary with 3 INTs and 9 pass breakups

Despite losing eight of the ten players who started at least ten games, the defense returns more production than the offense and should remain a strength. The addition of Alabama transfer Jeheim Oatis should bolster the defensive line significantly.

Home Sweet Home: A Schedule Built For Success

Colorado’s 2025 schedule features seven home games—the most in over four decades.

Non-conference slate:

  • Georgia Tech (home)
  • Delaware (home)
  • Wyoming (home)

Key home conference games:

  • BYU (Alamo Bowl rematch)
  • Iowa State
  • Arizona State (defending Big 12 champion)

Toughest road tests:

  • Houston (Sept. 13, Big 12 opener)
  • TCU
  • Utah
  • Kansas State

According to early odds from FanDuel Sportsbook, Colorado’s projected win total sits at 6.5 games.

The favorable home schedule, with only one road game within the first month, gives the Buffaloes a real opportunity to start strong, potentially opening 3-1 or 4-0 before hitting the more challenging portion of their schedule.

Beyond Football: The Prime Effect Continues To Transform Boulder

What Coach Prime has built extends far beyond the football field.

The “Prime Effect” has transformed:

The University:

  • Significant shift in campus culture around diversity and inclusion
  • Increased student applications
  • Major new sponsorships and donations (over $10 million in new gifts)

The Economy:

  • Consistently sold-out home games
  • Local business booms on game days
  • Economic impact estimates range from $300-500 million in Sanders’ first year alone

The Brand:

  • National television appearances
  • Constant media coverage
  • Exclusive merchandise lines and collaborations with major companies

This continued national attention and cultural impact remains a powerful recruitment and program-building tool, even as the team transitions away from its star players.

The Bottom Line: What To Expect In 2025

The 2025 Colorado Buffaloes stand at a fascinating inflection point.

Most analysts project a 7-5 or 8-4 regular season, with another bowl appearance likely. While this would represent a slight step back from last year’s 9-4 record, it would still signify remarkable progress for a program that won just one game three years ago.

The question isn’t whether Colorado can win games—they’ve proven they can do that. The real question is whether Coach Prime is building something sustainable beyond star power.

If Salter or Lewis can stabilize the quarterback position, if the defense maintains its trajectory, and if the run game finally becomes a weapon rather than a liability, this could be the year that proves Colorado football is here to stay as a legitimate Big 12 contender.

The next chapter of Colorado football may not have the star power of the previous one, but it might prove more meaningful for the program’s long-term future.

The Next Billion Dollar Game

College football isn’t just a sport anymore—it’s a high-stakes market where information asymmetry separates winners from losers. While the average fan sees only what happens between the sidelines, real insiders trade on the hidden dynamics reshaping programs from the inside out.

Our team has embedded with the power brokers who run this game. The coaching carousel, NIL deals, transfer portal strategies, we’ve mapped the entire ecosystem with the kind of obsessive detail that would make a hedge fund analyst blush.

Why subscribe? Because in markets this inefficient, information creates alpha. Our subscribers knew which coaches were dead men walking months before the mainstream media caught on. They understood which programs were quietly transforming their recruiting apparatuses while competitors slept.

The smart money is already positioning for 2025. Are you?

Click below—it’s free—and join the small group of people who understand the real value of college football’s new economy.

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Iowa State’s 2025 Football Season: How the Cyclones Plan to Build on Their Historic Success

Mark Haines on May 6, 2025

Iowa State just delivered the best football season in school history, and now they face their greatest challenge: doing it again.

After an unprecedented 11-win campaign in 2024 that included the program’s first-ever Big 12 Championship Game appearance and a thrilling Pop-Tarts Bowl victory, the Cyclones enter 2025 with a mix of returning talent, high expectations, and significant questions to answer.

The Historic Season Nobody Saw Coming

Last year wasn’t just good for Iowa State—it was program-defining.

  • First 11-win season in 133 years of Cyclone football
  • Finished as Big 12 runners-up, falling to Arizona State in the championship game
  • Capped the season with a dramatic 42-41 comeback victory over Miami in the Pop-Tarts Bowl
  • Achieved a final AP ranking of No. 15, third-highest among Big 12 teams
  • Generated enough momentum for head coach Matt Campbell to sign an eight-year extension through 2032

The success cemented Campbell’s legacy as the winningest coach in Iowa State history, silencing NFL rumors and giving the program unprecedented stability.

Your first question should be: Can they possibly do it again?

With key departures at wide receiver and a challenging schedule with an international opener, the path to matching last year’s success won’t be easy, but the pieces are there.

Becht’s Evolution: More Than Just a Quarterback

Rocco Becht isn’t just returning as Iowa State’s starting quarterback—he’s returning as the team’s most important leader.

“Obviously, the leadership part, on and off the field, in the locker room—becoming a guy (like) Jaylin Noel and Beau (Freyler) were on their respective sides of the ball,” Becht said recently when discussing his goals for 2025. After throwing for 3,505 yards and 25 touchdowns in 2024, he’s focused on becoming even sharper.

There are three specific ways Becht elevated his game during the 2024 season:

  • Clutch performance: Led four come-from-behind victories, including the bowl game
  • Ball security: Threw just three interceptions in the final six games
  • Dual-threat capability: More than doubled his career-high in rushing touchdowns with eight

This growth has established Becht as one of the Big 12’s premier quarterbacks entering 2025, but his impact extends beyond stats.

“Rocco is like another offensive coach on our staff,” says ISU offensive coordinator Taylor Mouser. “He’s the guy, since we got back (from the Pop-Tarts Bowl win over Miami), who, when the coaches aren’t there, he’s there running practice and going through routes.”

This player-driven leadership will be crucial as Iowa State integrates new talent at key positions.

The Wide Receiver Question Everyone Is Asking

Iowa State lost its two biggest offensive weapons to the NFL Draft, creating the team’s most glaring question mark.

The departures of Jayden Higgins and Jaylin Noel, who combined for 2,377 receiving yards and 17 touchdowns, leave a massive production void that will be addressed through two primary channels:

  1. Strategic Transfer Portal Additions
    • Chase Sowell (East Carolina/Colorado): A 6-4 receiver who had multiple 100-yard games at ECU
    • Xavier Townsend (UCF): Versatile playmaker with 66 career catches and experience as a rusher and returner
  2. Internal Development
    • Young players like Carson Brown and Eli Green are stepping into expanded roles
    • Converting tight end Kai Black (now 240 pounds) into a potential outside receiving threat

How quickly these new pieces develop chemistry with Becht will largely determine the Cyclones’ offensive ceiling in 2025.

The Recruiting Pipeline That’s Changing the Program

Matt Campbell has slowly established Iowa State as the destination for top in-state talent.

The 2025 recruiting class, ranked No. 52 nationally, continues this trend by securing five of the top six players in Iowa, including:

  • Alex Manske (QB, Algona): Four-star quarterback and cornerstone of the class
  • Will Hawthorne (LB, Gilbert): Four-star linebacker, one of the state’s best defensive prospects
  • Will Tompkins (OT, Cedar Falls): Four-star offensive tackle adding size up front
  • Ethan Stecker (ATH, Spirit Lake): Versatile athlete with multiple positional options
  • Jack Limbaugh (EDGE, Algona): Highly ranked edge rusher with pass-rush potential

These aren’t just good recruits by Iowa State standards—they’re elite talents that would have typically gone to bigger programs.

The class includes 21 total signees (11 offense, 10 defense), with seven from Iowa, demonstrating Campbell’s emphasis on first building from within the state’s borders.

A Run Defense Problem That Could Derail Everything

For all of Iowa State’s success in 2024, one glaring weakness threatened to undermine it all.

The Cyclones allowed 188.4 rushing yards per game (ranked 98th nationally) and 5.3 yards per carry—a vulnerability exploited in their Big 12 Championship loss and several close games.

To address this, Campbell has:

  • Added multiple defensive linemen via the transfer portal, including Cannon Butler (UNI), Vontroy Malone (Tulsa), and Tamatoa McDonough (Yale)
  • Signed four-star LB Will Hawthorne and DL BJ Carter in the recruiting class
  • Developed young linebackers who were forced into action due to injuries in 2024
  • Converted WR Beni Ngoyi to defensive back before the Pop-Tarts Bowl, with promising early results

If the Cyclones can’t stop the run more effectively in 2025, even Becht’s offensive firepower may not overcome it.

Dublin Calling: The Historic Season Opener

Iowa State will make program history before playing a single snap in Jack Trice Stadium.

The Cyclones will play outside the United States for the first time when they open the 2025 season against Kansas State in the Aer Lingus College Football Classic on August 23 in Dublin, Ireland.

This international showcase brings unique challenges:

  • An earlier start to the season (Week Zero) means accelerated preparation timelines
  • Conference opponent in the opener raises immediate stakes
  • International travel logistics for players, staff, and fans
  • Three bye weeks (Sept. 20, Oct. 18, Nov. 15) create an unusual rhythm to the season

“He’s trying to make it like fall camp,” Becht explained about Coach Campbell’s approach to spring practice. “We know that we start a week earlier because we play in Ireland, and we have one of the longest seasons in college football.”

The Ireland opener is just the beginning of what many consider one of the most demanding schedules in recent memory.

The SWOT Analysis Every Cyclone Fan Needs to See

The Realistic Outlook Every Fan Should Adopt

Expectations need calibration after the best season in program history, both up and down.

Here’s what’s realistic for the 2025 Cyclones:

  • Another Big 12 Championship appearance is possible but not guaranteed
  • 8-9 wins would represent continued success given the schedule difficulty
  • Offensive production may dip initially as new receivers develop
  • Defense must improve against the run to remain conference contenders
  • The international opener creates both opportunity and uncertainty

Matt Campbell’s eight-year contract extension signals that he and the university believe the program’s trajectory will remain upward despite the significant challenges ahead.

With Becht’s leadership, strategic portal additions, and Campbell’s developmental approach, Iowa State appears positioned to remain competitive in the evolving Big 12 landscape.

The question isn’t whether the Cyclones can match last year’s historic success—it’s whether they can sustain their place among the conference elite over the long term.

Based on the foundation built, the answer appears promising.

The Next Billion Dollar Game

College football isn’t just a sport anymore—it’s a high-stakes market where information asymmetry separates winners from losers. While the average fan sees only what happens between the sidelines, real insiders trade on the hidden dynamics reshaping programs from the inside out.

Our team has embedded with the power brokers who run this game. The coaching carousel, NIL deals, transfer portal strategies, we’ve mapped the entire ecosystem with the kind of obsessive detail that would make a hedge fund analyst blush.

Why subscribe? Because in markets this inefficient, information creates alpha. Our subscribers knew which coaches were dead men walking months before the mainstream media caught on. They understood which programs were quietly transforming their recruiting apparatuses while competitors slept.

The smart money is already positioning for 2025. Are you?

Click below—it’s free—and join the small group of people who understand the real value of college football’s new economy.

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College Football Warning: Utah Is About To Break Your Heart.

Mark Haines on May 5, 2025

Let me tell you what 5-7 means for Utah’s Kyle Whittingham.

It means 134 consecutive weeks of sleepless nights, obsessing over film, analyzing every missed assignment, every blown coverage, every quarterback injury that shattered his 22-year masterpiece. When a 65-year-old legend sits in his office at midnight questioning whether he should retire – that’s when transformation happens.

The Quarterback Carousel From Hell

Five quarterbacks. FIVE.

But here’s the part ESPN glossed over in their highlight reels: Starting quarterback Cam Rising went down after 2.5 games. Then came Brandon Rose. Then Isaac Wilson. Then Miguel Wilson. Finally, they handed the keys to Luke Bottari – the FIFTH string quarterback who wasn’t even supposed to see the field this millennium.

Meanwhile, the numbers told a story of offensive incompetence so profound it made Bill Walsh roll in his grave:

  • 55.6% completion percentage (lower than Manning’s rookie year in the NFL)
  • 329.8 yards per game (dead last among Power 5 programs)
  • 23.6 points per game (Georgia Tech scored more in 1990)
  • 3.9 yards per carry (high schoolers do better)
  • More interceptions per game than touchdowns (because why not?)

The defense? They fought like lions. 12th nationally in scoring defense. 20th in total defense. They watched their offense hemorrhage possessions and still held teams to 16.4 points per game. Then they had to watch their offense throw it all away.

Seven straight losses. The longest streak in Kyle Whittingham’s 22 years.

That wasn’t football. That was character assassination.

The Transfer Portal Retaliation

Here’s where this story takes a turn nobody saw coming.

While the national media was busy crowning Colorado’s “flashy” recruiting class, Utah went shopping for actual game-changers. Not followers. Not hype merchants. Winners.

Devon Dampier arrives from New Mexico with Jason Beck’s entire playbook downloaded into his brain:

  • 3,934 total yards in 2024
  • 1,166 rushing yards that made Pac-12 defenses look foolish
  • First-Team All-Mountain West honors
  • Chemistry with Ryan Davis (747 receiving yards together)

But the real coup? The running back room.

247Sports ranks it No. 6 in America. Best in the Big 12. Not just depth – ELITE depth:

  • Wayshawn Parker (735 yards, elite burst at Washington State)
  • NaQuari Rogers (New Mexico’s secret weapon)
  • Devin Green (UNLV’s explosive playmaker)
  • Daniel Bray (four-star freshman who benched 225 sixteen times)

You know what separates good programs from great ones? They don’t rebuild. They reload with precision-guided missiles while everyone’s distracted by shiny objects.

The Morgan Scalley Question

Picture this: You’re the defensive coordinator for one of the nation’s elite defenses. Your boss, a living legend, just went 5-7 for the first time in forever. The AD taps you as “head coach in waiting.” The pressure? Astronomical.

Morgan Scalley doesn’t just need this defense to perform. He needs it to dominate. Every linebacker tackle, every forced turnover, and every defensive touchdown is an audition for the biggest job interview in college football.

The additions scream intent:

  • Christian Thatcher (four-star linebacker sensation)
  • Lance Holtzclaw (Washington’s edge rushing terror)
  • Jaxson Jones (Oregon transfer with NFL bloodlines)
  • Donovan Saunders (Texas A&M transfer who quarterbacks fear)

This isn’t a defense. It’s a proving ground for the next era of Utah football.

The Schedule That Begs For Revenge

August 30 at UCLA: The statement game. September 6 vs. Cal Poly: Confidence restoration. September 13 vs. Wyoming: Chemistry check.

Then, the Big 12 gauntlet that could make or break Kyle Whittingham’s legacy:

  • Week 4: Arizona State at home (Colorado killer)
  • Week 8: Kansas State at home (Big 12 contender)
  • Week 11: Colorado at home (Prime Time’s revenge game)

Not a single back-to-back road trip all season. Utah gets its toughest conference games at Rice-Eccles Stadium, where opposing teams still have nightmares about the altitude and the noise and Whittingham’s glare from the sideline.

The Math of Desperation

Four wins projected. Six if they’re lucky. But here’s the real math:

  • One healthy quarterback equals +3 wins minimum
  • Elite running game equals +2 wins versus average rushing attacks
  • Scalley’s defense staying top-15 equals another +2 wins
  • Favorable schedule with key home games equals another +1

That’s not 4-8. That’s not even 6-6. That’s 9-3 with a legitimate shot at the Big 12 Championship Game.

But championships aren’t the point. Legacy is the point.

The Whittingham Principle

Every great coach faces the same crossroads: go out on top or risk diminishing returns. Bobby Bowden stuck around too long. So did Joe Paterno. So did Lou Holtz.

Kyle Whittingham chose the road less traveled – using rock bottom as the foundation for one final masterpiece. And here’s the beautiful irony: the injury-devastated quarterback room that wrecked 2024 forced Utah to build the deepest, most talented roster they’ve had in a decade.

By Thanksgiving, one of two stories emerges: An aging legend rides into the sunset with his reputation intact, or Kyle Whittingham reminds every Power 5 program why they spent 22 years fearing Utah football.

The scary part? They’ve got the horses to write either ending.

The Real Warning

Don’t count talent. Count desperation. Don’t count wins. Count motivations. Don’t count the schedule. Count the opportunity.

Because when a Hall of Fame coach with a 120-50 career record watches his program hit its lowest point in two decades, that’s not an ending.

That’s a beginning.

The 2025 season isn’t about bowl eligibility. It’s about whether the last chapter of Kyle Whittingham’s career reads like redemption or regret. Everything Utah does this offseason – every portal addition, every practice rep, every film session – leads to one question:

Can greatness be reinvented at 65?

The horses are saddled. The revenge tour starts in 179 days. And college football isn’t ready for what happens when a legend refuses to fade quietly into that good night.

The Next Billion Dollar Game

College football isn’t just a sport anymore—it’s a high-stakes market where information asymmetry separates winners from losers. While the average fan sees only what happens between the sidelines, real insiders trade on the hidden dynamics reshaping programs from the inside out.

Our team has embedded with the power brokers who run this game. The coaching carousel, NIL deals, transfer portal strategies, we’ve mapped the entire ecosystem with the kind of obsessive detail that would make a hedge fund analyst blush.

Why subscribe? Because in markets this inefficient, information creates alpha. Our subscribers knew which coaches were dead men walking months before the mainstream media caught on. They understood which programs were quietly transforming their recruiting apparatuses while competitors slept.

The smart money is already positioning for 2025. Are you?

Click below—it’s free—and join the small group of people who understand the real value of college football’s new economy.

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KNIGHT REVIVAL: UCF’S 2025 SEASON OUTLOOK UNDER SCOTT FROST’S RETURN

Mark Haines on May 2, 2025

UCF’s prodigal son has returned home.

After guiding the Knights to a historic undefeated season in 2017 and then departing for his alma mater, Nebraska, Scott Frost is back in Orlando with unfinished business and Big 12 dreams.

The reunion couldn’t come at a more critical time for a program desperate to reestablish itself following a disappointing 4-8 campaign in 2024.

THE HOMECOMING THAT EVERYONE WANTED

Something didn’t feel right when Scott Frost left UCF after that magical 2017 season.

Frost admitted it years later, saying, “I don’t think my heart really wanted to leave. UCF was a special place to me then, and it always will be.”

With a 5-year contract through 2029, Frost can finish what he started—this time with UCF sitting at the big boy table in the Big 12.

  • Turned a 0-12 team into 13-0 national champions in just two years
  • Led the nation in scoring at 48.2 points per game in 2017
  • Won multiple national coach of the year awards after the perfect season
  • Returns after going 16-31 in his stint at Nebraska

As Athletic Director Terry Mohajir put it: “Today marks an exciting reunion for UCF Football as we welcome back Scott Frost, a coach who ignites the spirit and passion of Knight Nation.”

But make no mistake—this isn’t about nostalgia. It’s about bringing winning football back to Orlando.

2025 SCHEDULE: OPPORTUNITIES AND CHALLENGES

The schedule sets up nicely for a potential bounce-back season.

UCF opens with three consecutive non-conference home games:

  • Jacksonville State (Thursday, August 28)
  • North Carolina A&T (September 6)
  • North Carolina and new coach Bill Belichick (September 21) after a bye week

The conference slate features a mix of winnable home games and challenging road trips:

Home Games:

  • Kansas (October 4)
  • West Virginia (October 18)
  • Houston (November 8)
  • Oklahoma State (November 22)

Road Challenges:

  • Kansas State
  • Cincinnati
  • Baylor
  • Texas Tech
  • Season finale at BYU (November 29)

Frost recognizes the challenge ahead: “It’s a fun schedule. We got our work cut out for us. We’re taking off from a point that I don’t think anybody was happy with last year’s results. That being said, I think watching the tape and a few plays go different, UCF wins seven or eight games last year.”

THE MASSIVE ROSTER OVERHAUL

Your first rebuild is impressive. Your second rebuild? That’s where legends are made.

Frost didn’t waste time turning over the roster through both recruiting and the transfer portal:

  • Class ranked #77 nationally by 247Sports
  • Notable recruits include Taevion Swint (#19 RB), Tony Williams (#34 S), and RyShawn Perry (#39 DT)
  • Added four key linemen on National Signing Day, including Jacob Maiava from Hawaii and Raishaun McHaney from Indianapolis

The biggest impact might be felt at the transfer portal. Frost and his staff have been working tirelessly to reshape the roster.

“In this era of college football you land and immediately have to start putting a team together in the transfer portal,” Frost explained. “So my life was six in the morning till midnight, and falling asleep with my phone in my hand for five weeks just to try to get a team put together.”

THE QUARTERBACK QUESTION

If you want to find the most critical position battle of the 2025 season, look no further than quarterback.

After cycling through four different starters in 2024, stability under center is the top priority.

For the first time since 2019, the Knights enter a season without a clear-cut starting quarterback. The competition features returning quarterback Jacurri Brown alongside transfers Cam Fancher and Tayven Jackson.

The competition brings additional intrigue with former UCF quarterback legend McKenzie Milton serving as quarterbacks coach.

Milton’s approach is simple: “The thing we always harp on is there are two things you can always control: your attitude and effort. These guys have come in with the right attitude every day and they’ve been busting their butts out there.”

The four contenders each bring different strengths:

  • Tayven Jackson: Former four-star recruit with two years of eligibility remaining after stints at Tennessee and Indiana
  • Cam Fancher: Veteran with three years of starting experience from Marshall and FAU
  • Jacurri Brown: Athletic dual-threat who started games in 2024

THE ALEX GRINCH GAMBLE

Let’s be brutally honest—the 2024 defense was a disaster:

  • Ranked 94th nationally (339.0 YPG)
  • Surrendered 40 total touchdowns
  • Allowed 64.9% completion rate (5th worst in FBS)

The biggest coaching move this offseason? Hiring Alex Grinch as defensive coordinator is a decision that has raised eyebrows across college football.

Frost views Grinch as someone whose career mirrors his own: “I think I can really relate to Alex’s career. One time, he was probably the hottest defensive coordinator in the country. He went to another place where it didn’t go quite as well, and I don’t think that was necessarily all his fault.”

The truth is that Grinch’s recent track record is concerning:

  • Was fired midseason from USC in 2023 after defensive collapses
  • Allowed 101 combined points in his final two USC games against California and Washington
  • Oklahoma’s defense regressed in his final season, dropping to 76th nationally
  • Spent 2024 as co-defensive coordinator at Wisconsin in a reset year

Frost is betting on Grinch recapturing the magic he showed at Washington State (2015-17), where his aggressive “Speed D” concept earned him Broyles Award semifinalist honors.

The staff has prioritized defensive back recruiting and brought in multiple transfers to shore up the secondary:

  • Syracuse DBs Jayden Bellamy and Jyaire Brown
  • LSU DB Jyaire Brown
  • FAU DB Phillip Dunnam

Nyjalik Kelly returns after leading UCF with 5.5 sacks in 2024, providing some stability up front alongside transfers Sincere Edwards (Pittsburgh) and RJ Jackson (Tulsa).

Linebacker transfers Phil Picciotti (Oklahoma) and Keli Lawson (Virginia Tech) should immediately impact the middle of the defense.

The defensive coordinator hire remains the biggest gamble of Frost’s second tenure. If Grinch fails to deliver, it could derail UCF’s rebuild before it even gets started.

CULTURE CHANGE AND THE MINDSET SHIFT

Beyond schemes and personnel, Frost’s biggest job may be changing the culture and mindset.

Black & Gold Banneret states that Frost’s biggest test will be “restoring a winning mindset to UCF Football.”

It’s about creating belief and mentally flipping the script for a team that lost 8 of its final 9 games in 2024, including four one-score losses.

Spring practices have emphasized increased intensity, attention to detail, and developing a core of player leadership in a roster filled with newcomers.

A key advantage for Frost is his relationship with AD Terry Mohajir: “Terry’s been great. I’m so grateful to have an AD that’s on my side and working alongside me. When you’re in the other situation it’s really difficult, and it’s really debilitating to be honest with you.”

2025 OUTLOOK: REALISTIC EXPECTATIONS

So, where does this leave us for 2025? Most projections point to UCF fighting for bowl eligibility:

  • Improvement from 4 wins to 6-7 wins
  • Bowl eligibility within reach
  • Building block for future success

The key factors that will determine UCF’s ceiling:

  1. Quarterback Development: Finding the right starter who can limit turnovers and maximize the offense’s potential
  2. Secondary Performance: Dramatic improvement needed in pass defense
  3. Line Play: Both offensive and defensive lines must get stronger
  4. Close Game Execution: Flipping the script in one-score games
  5. Home Field Advantage: Must capitalize on seven home games

THE VISION AHEAD

For Frost and UCF, 2025 is about more than immediate wins—it’s about reestablishing a foundation for long-term success in the Big 12.

As Frost said upon his return: “The foundation we built here has only grown stronger, and I am thrilled to continue shaping this program’s legacy. As we prepare for year three in the Big 12 Conference, I look forward to working alongside our dedicated student-athletes, talented staff, and passionate fans to reach new heights together.”

While bowl eligibility is the immediate goal, the ultimate vision is clear: building UCF into a legitimate Big 12 contender that can regularly compete for conference championships.

The reunion between Scott Frost and UCF offers a rare second chance to recapture magic—this time on a bigger stage, with higher stakes, and with the benefit of lessons learned.

Knight Nation, the revival has begun.

THE NEXT BILLION-DOLLAR GAME

College football isn’t just a sport anymore—it’s a high-stakes market where information asymmetry separates winners from losers. While the average fan sees only what happens between the sidelines, real insiders trade on the hidden dynamics reshaping programs from the inside out.

Our team has embedded with the power brokers who run this game. The coaching carousel, NIL deals, transfer portal strategies, we’ve mapped the entire ecosystem with the kind of obsessive detail that would make a hedge fund analyst blush.

Why subscribe? Because in markets this inefficient, information creates alpha. Our subscribers knew which coaches were dead men walking months before the mainstream media caught on. They understood which programs were quietly transforming their recruiting apparatuses while competitors slept.

The smart money is already positioning for 2025. Are you?

Click below—it’s free—and join the small group of people who understand the real value of college football’s new economy.

Free Subscription
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ALL-IN: Why Texas Tech Football Is THE Most Fascinating Team of 2025

Mark Haines on May 1, 2025

The championship window just swung wide open at Texas Tech in Lubbock.

After dropping $10+ million on the nation’s #1 transfer portal class, Texas Tech has officially pushed all its chips to the center of the table—transforming from a middle-of-the-pack Big 12 team into a legitimate College Football Playoff contender overnight.

This is the story of college football’s most audacious offseason gamble and why the Red Raiders are about to shock the entire country.

Joey McGuire called his 8-5 season a “complete failure” and then went nuclear in the transfer portal.

When a coach publicly labels an 8-win season a “failure,” two things are happening:

  1. The expectations inside the building are sky-high
  2. Bold moves are coming

Bold doesn’t begin to describe what happened next. According to reports, Texas Tech assembled the most aggressive transfer class in college football history, spending north of $10 million (double their original budget) to secure elite talent nationwide.

Why such a dramatic approach?

  • Tech’s championship window is NOW (expanded playoff creates opportunity)
  • The Air Raid offense needs just a few more weapons
  • The defense desperately needed immediate upgrades
  • The Big 12 title race is wide open without Texas and Oklahoma

“This place has never gone to the Big 12 championship or won one. Everybody from the top down is wanting one in Lubbock, Texas. I can’t imagine. It’ll be a dream. But it’s gonna be a dream come true, because it’s about to happen.”

—James Blanchard, Texas Tech General Manager (who recently turned down the same position at Notre Dame)

When your GM turns down Notre Dame to stay at Texas Tech, something special is brewing in West Texas.

The return of QB Behren Morton gives Tech the most important ingredient for a title run: stability under center.

The quarterback position has been a revolving door in Lubbock since the Patrick Mahomes era ended.

That changes in 2025, with Behren Morton returning as the full-time starter after throwing for 3,335 yards and 27 touchdowns in 2024, despite battling shoulder issues during parts of the season.

Morton’s experience running the Air Raid offers three critical advantages:

  • He’s already shown he can produce at an elite level (37.6 points per game in 2024)
  • He knows the system inside and out (accuracy and decision-making will improve)
  • He’s fought through adversity and earned the respect of the locker room

With a healthy Morton directing traffic, the Red Raiders offense should be even more explosive than the unit that averaged nearly 463 yards per game last season.

The $10 million transfer haul brought in game-changers at EVERY position.

Most programs are happy to land one or two impact transfers each offseason.

Texas Tech signed SEVENTEEN.

The Red Raiders’ transfer class is mind-boggling in both quality and quantity:

  • 5-star WR Micah Hudson returns after briefly transferring to Texas A&M
  • TE Terrance Carter (Louisiana) brings 48 catches, 689 yards, and 4 TDs
  • WR Reggie Virgil (Miami OH) was an all-conference performer
  • RB Quinten Joyner (USC) averaged 7.6 yards per carry in 2024
  • OL Will Jados (Miami OH) adds 40 career starts to the offensive line
  • Multiple defensive backs with length and experience to boost a secondary that struggled in 2024

This isn’t just adding depth—it’s a complete roster overhaul with immediate championship aspirations.

The defense must improve if Tech wants to become more than just the Big 12’s most entertaining team.

Let’s be real: Texas Tech’s defense was a disaster in 2024.

  • 34.9 points allowed per game (121st nationally)
  • 460.2 yards allowed per game
  • 308.1 passing yards allowed per game (4th-worst in FBS)

No offensive firepower can overcome a defense that leaks points like a sieve. That’s why Tech’s transfer strategy focused heavily on adding length and experience in the secondary.

The defensive improvements must happen quickly. Tech’s schedule includes challenging road games at Utah, Houston, Colorado, Kansas State, and West Virginia.

But with eight defensive starters returning plus the transfer additions, this unit has nowhere to go but up.

The 2025 schedule provides a runway for success with three straight home games to open the season.

When you’re integrating 17 transfers, the schedule matters—and Texas Tech’s 2025 slate sets up perfectly for early momentum:

  • 3 consecutive home games to start (Arkansas-Pine Bluff, Kent State, Oregon State)
  • Avoids Oklahoma and Texas in conference play
  • Key home games against Kansas and Oklahoma State
  • Strategic open dates before challenging road trips

The Red Raiders also benefit from two open dates (Sept. 27 and Nov. 22) that provide valuable rest and preparation time before critical stretches.

If Tech can navigate early-season chemistry challenges, they’ll be battle-tested and fully integrated by the time the most critical games arrive in November.

Will Texas Tech’s $10 million gamble pay off with the program’s first-ever Big 12 championship?

National media is already buzzing about Texas Tech’s potential:

  • CBS Sports listed Tech among the Big 12’s top five championship contenders
  • The Mercury News projected the Red Raiders to finish second in the conference
  • Multiple power rankings place Tech in the upper echelon of the reconfigured Big 12

But expectations are dangerous in college football, especially for a program that hasn’t won a conference title since the Southwest Conference era.

The question isn’t whether Texas Tech has assembled championship-caliber talent (they have). It’s whether they can transform a collection of transfers and returning stars into a cohesive unit capable of winning in hostile environments against elite competition.

The Red Raiders are now officially the most fascinating team in college football—a program that has decided its time is now and is willing to spend whatever it takes to make it happen.

We’ll know if the $10 million gamble paid off in December.

But one thing’s already certain: Texas Tech’s “all-in” approach has changed the game in college football’s NIL era.

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Kansas Football 2025: A Program at the Crossroads

Mark Haines on April 30, 2025

Kansas football is about to enter its most pivotal season yet.

After a rollercoaster 2024 campaign that teased fans with unprecedented highs (beating three straight ranked opponents) but ultimately crashed into a 5-7 finish, the Jayhawks find themselves at a critical juncture. With quarterback Jalon Daniels returning for his final chapter, 22 new transfers reshaping the roster, and a gleaming renovated stadium awaiting its grand reopening, 2025 represents the moment of truth for Lance Leipold’s program.

The central question hanging over Lawrence: Was the Jayhawks’ breakthrough in 2022-2023 the beginning of something sustainable, or just a fleeting moment of relevance?

The 2024 Season: A Promising Start That Fizzled Out

The optimism was electric entering 2024.

Kansas started the year ranked in the AP Top 25 for the first time since 2009, carrying momentum from back-to-back bowl appearances. But the excitement quickly faded as the Jayhawks stumbled to a 2-6 start, including a soul-crushing five-game losing streak.

Yet just when fans were ready to write off the season:

  • Kansas shocked No. 17 Iowa State
  • Followed by stunning No. 7 BYU
  • Then completed the trifecta by taking down No. 16 Colorado

This historic run marked the first time in FBS history a team with a losing record beat three consecutive ranked opponents. But the fairy tale couldn’t sustain itself – a season-ending loss to Baylor left the Jayhawks at 5-7, painfully short of bowl eligibility.

The offense remained potent (29.7 PPG, 420.8 YPG), buoyed by Devin Neal’s remarkable 1,266-yard, 16-TD farewell tour as he cemented his legacy as Kansas’ all-time leading rusher.

The Daniels Decision: QB1 Returns for His Final Act

When Jalon Daniels announced he was staying for 2025, the entire trajectory of Kansas’ season changed.

“I’m ready to lead the Kansas Jayhawks into the 2025 season and fully focused on becoming the best QB possible,” Daniels wrote in December. “I’m staying to finish what we’ve started, continue building, and to give back to the fans who’ve given us everything.”

This decision gives Kansas something precious in college football: quarterback continuity. In 2024, Daniels threw for 2,454 yards and 14 touchdowns while adding 439 rushing yards and 6 scores on the ground.

But can he stay healthy?

Leipold revealed during spring practice that Daniels “really hasn’t done a whole lot this spring,” suggesting the staff is taking a cautious approach to ensure their star quarterback makes it through a full season. Given his injury history, managing Daniels’ workload will be the most crucial factor in Kansas’ 2025 campaign.

The Transfer Portal Makeover: 22 New Faces Transform the Roster

Kansas football isn’t just getting a new look but an extreme makeover.

With 22 transfers, Leipold is rebuilding half his roster in a single offseason. The departed stars, Neal, Bryant, and Dotson, leave massive shoes to fill, but the Jayhawks’ aggressive portal approach might provide immediate answers.

Five transfers who could transform Kansas immediately:

  1. Tyler Mercer (North Texas, OL): Freshman All-American center brings immediate credibility to the interior O-line
  2. Justice Finkley (Texas, EDGE): Former blue-chip recruit expected to boost a pass rush that desperately needs playmakers
  3. Leshon Williams (Iowa, RB): Power Five-tested back with the unenviable task of replacing Devin Neal’s production
  4. Trey Lathan (West Virginia, LB): Two-year starter in the Big 12 provides valuable experience on a defense in transition
  5. Bangally Kamara (Pitt/South Carolina, LB): Veteran defender with 129 career tackles brings immediate stability

Leipold seems pleased with how these newcomers are assimilating: “I really thank our staff and commend them for the job they’ve done. I think not only just what the guys have done on the field, but how they fit in their locker room.”

The New Brain Trust: Coaching Changes Set New Direction

The X’s and O’s are getting a fresh perspective in 2025.

Jim Zebrowski, previously co-offensive coordinator and quarterbacks coach, takes full control of the offense after Jeff Grimes departed for Wisconsin. This promotion provides valuable continuity for Daniels while potentially bringing new wrinkles to the attack.

Leipold has praised Zebrowski’s early work: “Jim Zebrowski’s done a nice job. I think the input that he has with Matt Lubick, who had been with us before in an analyst role, and I think they’re working extremely well together.”

On the defensive side, coordinator DK McDonald must improve a unit that allowed 239.1 passing yards per game in 2024.

Leipold believes McDonald is establishing a new standard: “I think DK McDonald’s done a great job on the defensive side, really establishing a standard of play and physicality of what we want to be and holding our guys to that standard every day.”

The 2025 Schedule: Historic Rivalries Return

The schedule offers a perfect blend of opportunity and challenge.

Kansas opens with a “Week 0” showcase against Fresno State on August 23, christening the newly renovated David Booth Kansas Memorial Stadium before a tune-up against FCS Wagner.

Then comes the moment generations of Jayhawks fans have awaited: the Border Showdown rivalry with Missouri returns on September 6, rekindling a historic matchup that has been dormant since 2011.

The Big 12 slate offers a balanced approach:

  • Home games: West Virginia, Cincinnati, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, Utah
  • Road trips: UCF, Texas Tech, Arizona, Iowa State

The early home-heavy schedule provides a crucial runway for a team integrating many new pieces. But Kansas must navigate these crucial challenges:

  1. The emotional Missouri rivalry game could set the tone for the entire season
  2. Back-to-back October road trips to UCF and Texas Tech will test depth and resilience
  3. The continued Kansas State frustration (nearly two decades without a win) looms large on October 25
  4. Late-season trips to Arizona and Iowa State could determine bowl eligibility

The Formula for Success: Five Keys to the 2025 Season

For Kansas to break through and return to the postseason, these five factors must align:

  1. Daniels Must Stay Upright

Leipold noted, “It’s important for him to stay healthy.” With Daniels at full strength, “Kansas has conference championship upside.” That’s not hyperbole—a healthy Daniels transforms this program’s ceiling.

  1. Transfer Chemistry Must Develop Quickly

When half your roster is new, early-season cohesion becomes the difference between contention and confusion. Kansas can’t afford a slow integration period with 22 new transfers learning to play together.

  1. The Defense Must Take a Leap

Even moderate defensive improvement could win multiple close games in the high-scoring Big 12. The secondary must make significant strides after allowing 239.1 passing YPG in 2024.

  1. The Running Game Needs a New Identity

Life after Devin Neal begins now. Leshon Williams and the other backs don’t need to replicate Neal’s production individually, but collectively they must maintain Kansas’ ground-game identity.

  1. Leadership Must Emerge

Leipold has identified several potential voices: “Cole Ballard has great leadership qualities and has that charisma that instantly gives guys in the locker room that kind of respect when he speaks.” Defensively, “D.J. Withers is one of those guys” along with Bangally Kamara who “is probably one that’s going to need to step up vocally for us at that second level position.”

The Bottom Line: A Defining Season Awaits

The 2025 campaign represents the inflection point for Kansas football.

Early projections place the Jayhawks as a fringe bowl contender with an expected win total in the 5-7 range – eerily similar to 2024’s outcome. But there’s a much wider variance in potential outcomes this season.

Best-case scenario: The transfer portal additions gel quickly, Daniels stays healthy for 12 games, and Kansas not only returns to bowl eligibility but competes for the upper tier of the Big 12.

Worst-case scenario: Chemistry issues plague a roster in transition, Daniels misses significant time, and another 4-5 win season raises uncomfortable questions about the program’s direction.

Leipold remains optimistic: “I’ve been extremely pleased with the attitude, the effort, the work ethic of this team, embracing what we’re setting as standards. Got a lot of work to do yet. We got a lot to clean up in some things in critical times, but 12 practices in, I’m very pleased where we’re at.”

The Jayhawks’ 2025 season will determine their place in the standings and reveal whether Kansas football’s resurrection under Leipold was merely a brief moment in the sun or the foundation of something sustainable.

The newly renovated stadium awaits its answer.

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