The Numbers That Don’t Add Up – Mountain West Championship Preview

Mark Haines on December 4, 2024

Boise State and UNLV meet Friday night for the Mountain West Championship.

In the pristine December air of Las Vegas, two college football programs are about to collide in a way that defies conventional wisdom. One is Boise State, the upstart powerhouse that has been terrorizing the Mountain West Conference for years by systematically destroying opponents. The other is UNLV, a program that was a statistical asterisk just two years ago. It is the kind of team that makes gamblers rich by betting against them.

The transformation of UNLV under Barry Odom is the kind of story that makes sports executives nervous. It suggests that all their complex formulas for success – the million-dollar facilities, the decades of tradition, the elaborate recruiting networks – might matter less than finding the right person with the right idea at the right time. Odom, a defensive specialist with a track record of raising football programs from the dead, has turned UNLV into something that would have been unthinkable 24 months ago: a legitimate threat to Boise State’s dominance.

The numbers tell a story that feels almost too neat to be true. Boise State, led by their own coaching prodigy Spencer Danielson, has been a machine of efficiency: 478.3 yards per game, 40.6 points scored, and a running back named Ashton Jeanty who seems to have been engineered in a laboratory specifically to break tackles (2,288 rushing yards, 28 touchdowns, and the kind of statistics that make NFL scouts reach for their phones). Their quarterback, Maddux Madsen, plays with the kind of careful precision (21 touchdowns, 3 interceptions) that makes offensive coordinators sleep well at night.

But here’s where it gets interesting: UNLV, the traditional underdog, has built something suspiciously similar. Their offense, anchored by the dual-threat quarterback Hajj-Malik Williams, puts up 434 yards and 38.7 points per game. It’s less than Boise State, but not by the margin you’d expect from a program that was recently college football’s equivalent of a penny stock.

Allegiant Stadium, site of the Mountain West Championship game

The real story, though, lies in a number that doesn’t show up in the standard statistics: 22 versus 14. That’s the turnover differential between these teams, with UNLV’s defense showing a predatory instinct for creating chaos that their more established opponents haven’t matched. It’s the kind of number that makes you wonder if there’s something more interesting happening here than just a good football team playing another good football team.

When these teams met earlier this season, Boise State won 29-24, the close score that tells you everything and nothing about what might happen in a rematch. It’s the type of game that Las Vegas oddsmakers hate – when the traditional metrics suggest one outcome, but the intangibles point to another.

The wild card in this is special teams, UNLV’s secret weapon. Their kicker, Caden Chittenden, has been converting field goals at an 80.6% clip, the kind of reliability that wins championships. And then there’s Jai’Den Thomas, who has turned kick returns into a form of performance art, including one touchdown that made highlight reels across the country.

As the sun sets over Las Vegas on December 6th, these two teams will take the field for a game that feels less like a conference championship and more like a referendum on how football programs are built. On one side, you have Boise State, with its decade of dominance and its assembly-line production of victories. On the other side is UNLV, the rapid risers who have turned chaos into a competitive advantage.

The beauty of this matchup lies in its unpredictability. It’s the kind of game that makes you question everything you think you know about college football – about tradition, momentum, and the way success is supposed to look. And maybe that’s exactly what makes it worth watching.

Let’s Break It Down – Season Overview

Boise State has had a remarkable season, losing only to Oregon in a close 37-34 contest early in the year. The Broncos have since reeled off 10 straight victories, including a 29-24 win over UNLV in their regular-season meeting. UNLV, under second-year head coach Barry Odom, has engineered a dramatic turnaround, with their only losses coming against Syracuse and Boise State.

Offensive Firepower

Both teams bring potent offenses to the championship game:

Boise State

Averaging 478.3 yards and 40.6 points per game
Balanced attack with 224.8 passing yards and 253.5 rushing yards per game
QB Maddux Madsen: 2556 passing yards, 21 TDs, 3 INTs
RB Ashton Jeanty: 2288 rushing yards, 28 TDs, 102 receiving yards, 1 receiving TD

UNLV

Averaging 434 yards and 38.7 points per game
Run-heavy offense with 254.1 rushing yards per game
QB Hajj-Malik Williams: 1735 passing yards, 17 TDs, 4 INTs, 768 rushing yards, 9 rushing TDs
RB Jai’Den Thomas: 832 rushing yards, 7 TDs, 85 receiving yards, 1 receiving TD

Defensive Battle

While both teams are known for their offensive prowess, their defenses have also played crucial roles in their success:

Boise State allows 364.8 total yards per game
UNLV gives up 349.3 total yards per game
The Rebels have been more opportunistic, forcing 22 turnovers compared to the Broncos’ 14

Special Teams Edge

UNLV holds a slight advantage in special teams:

Kicker Caden Chittenden: 25/31 FGs (80.6%), 51/52 PATs (98.1%)
Punt returner Jacob De Jesus: 20 returns, 163 yards, 8.2 avg
Kick returner Jai’Den Thomas: 3 returns, 124 yards, 1 TD

Coaching Matchup

This game features an intriguing coaching battle between Boise State’s Spencer Danielson and UNLV’s Barry Odom:

Danielson (2nd year): 14-2 overall record, faith-based approach, emphasizes player development
Odom (2nd year at UNLV): 19-7 record at UNLV, defensive expertise, known for quick program turnarounds

Key Factors

Boise State’s rushing attack vs. UNLV’s run defense
UNLV’s ability to force turnovers against a typically careful Boise State offense
Special teams play, particularly in the return game
Quarterback play under pressure in a high-stakes environment

Prediction – The Math of Inevitability

Suppose you were building a model to predict this game’s outcome. In that case, you’d probably focus on the obvious: Boise State’s superior yardage, their higher scoring average, and their previous victory over UNLV. You’d be doing exactly what most analysts do – and missing the point entirely.

The hidden pattern here lies in the convergence of three numbers that nobody’s talking about: UNLV’s +8 turnover margin advantage, their 80.6% field goal conversion rate, and the 5-point margin of their previous loss to Boise State. When you map these data points against similar conference championship games over the past decade, an interesting pattern emerges – teams with superior turnover margins and reliable kicking games tend to outperform their regular season results in championship settings.

The Las Vegas factor is another variable that spreadsheets can’t capture. UNLV isn’t just playing at home; they’re playing in a city that’s redefined itself more times than any other in America. Vegas’s team should do the same.

The smart money says Boise State by a touchdown. The numbers that don’t make the headlines suggest something else: UNLV 31, Boise State 27.

It’s the kind of prediction that makes traditional analysts uncomfortable – which is precisely why it might be right.

What’s your take on this game? Let us know here

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This Week’s Targeting Winners Preview: Conference Championship Implications Abound

Mark Haines on November 14, 2024

As we gear up for another edition of the Targeting Winners Podcast, which will be released this Friday (available on Spotify, Apple, or wherever you get your podcasts), let’s dive into three games that have caught our attention—each with its own compelling narrative around coaching futures and championship aspirations.

Boise State at San Jose State: Mountain West Mayhem

The Broncos roll into San Jose as 13.5-point road favorites, but don’t let that spread fool you. This game has all the makings of a classic Mountain West slugfest. Boise State’s Group of Five playoff hopes hang in the balance, with Army and Tulane breathing down their necks.

This is particularly intriguing because San Jose State’s 34th-ranked run defense is squaring up against Ashton Jeanty and the Broncos’ ground game. Add in the Spartans’ explosive receiver Nick Nash (1,156 yards, 13 TDs), and we might see fireworks. Our prediction leans Boise State 34-24, closer than the spread suggests.

Utah at Colorado: Western Pride on the Line

Colorado enters as 10-point home favorites, but there’s more than meets the eye here. The Buffaloes’ dynamic duo of Shedeur Sanders and Travis Hunter face their stiffest test against Utah’s 8th-ranked pass defense. Coming off a controversial loss to BYU, the Utes are hungry for redemption.

The stakes? Colorado’s chasing both a Big 12 Championship berth and playoff dreams. This is a classic defense-versus-offense showdown, landing around 27-20 Colorado. That Utah pass defense is no joke, folks.

Texas at Arkansas: SEC Preview with Job Security Subplots

Here’s where things get spicy. Texas (-15) returns to the scene of one of Steve Sarkisian’s early career lowlights – that 40-21 beating in 2021. But the real story here is Sam Pittman’s job security at Arkansas.

Pittman’s situation is fascinating. The fanbase loves him personally, but what about those on-field results? Not so much. Here’s the kicker – Pittman needs two more wins, including a bowl victory, to trigger an automatic extension and bonus. After that Ole Miss embarrassment exposed some disciplinary issues, every game becomes a must-win for his future in Fayetteville.

Arkansas’s pass rush and run defense could make things interesting, but Texas’s talent advantage should prevail. We’re looking at Texas 35-24, though don’t be shocked if Pittman’s squad comes out swinging – there’s more than just pride on the line here.

Make sure to catch the full breakdown on this week’s Targeting Winners Podcast. The crew always brings insights you won’t find anywhere else, and these games deserve that deep-dive treatment.

For more in-depth analysis and daily updates on coaching hot seats across college football, keep it locked on CoachesHotSeat.com.

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Coaches Hot Seat is Targeting Winners for Week 10

Mark Haines on October 31, 2024

Okay, folks, get ready. It’s that time of the week again when we dive headfirst into the chaotic, beautiful mess that is college football. Friday’s episode of the Targeting Winners podcast (available on Spotify, Apple, or wherever you get your podcasts) is coming at you hot, and trust me, you don’t want to miss this. They’ll be talking Xs and Os, dissecting matchups, and uncovering those hidden gems that’ll have you cashing in come Saturday.

Today, I’ll share my weekend bets and prep with you. I’m not just throwing darts at a board. I’m breaking down film, analyzing stats, and getting into the nitty-gritty.

This week, I’ve got three games I’m reviewing: San Diego State at Boise State, Ohio State at Penn State, and Pitt at SMU. We’re talking potential upsets, high-scoring shootouts, and maybe even a bit of old-fashioned smashmouth football. So read my breakdown below, make your picks, and fire up Spotify, Apple, or wherever you get your podcasts on Friday afternoon. Then, get ready to ride the wave with us.

San Diego State at (15) Boise State

The San Diego State Aztecs (3-4) will face the No. 15 Boise State Broncos (6-1) in a Mountain West Conference matchup on Friday, November 1, 2024, at Albertsons Stadium in Boise, Idaho14. The game will kick off at 8:00 p.m. ET and be broadcast on Fox Sports 14.

Betting Odds and Predictions

Boise State is heavily favored in this matchup:

Spread: Boise State -23.5
Moneyline: Boise State -2439, San Diego State +1096
Over/Under: 57.5 points14

The College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter (CFN FPM) has a slightly tighter spread of Boise State -18.54.

Key Factors

Home Field Advantage: Boise State has a strong home field advantage, but San Diego State has won at Albertsons Stadium in the past (2018 and 2012).

Head-to-Head Record: This will be the 10th meeting between the two teams, with Boise State holding a slight 5-4 advantage.

Recent Performance: Boise State has won every game where it has been favored this year, while San Diego State has failed to win as an underdog.

Against the Spread (ATS): San Diego State is 3-2 ATS as an underdog, while Boise State has failed to cover three times as a double-digit favorite.

Weather: The forecast calls for temperatures around 42 degrees with a chance of showers, which could impact game performance.

Outlook by Team

San Diego State:

New head coach Sean Lewis wants to improve last year’s 4-8 record.
The Aztecs have an 8.3% winning probability for this game.
Their season outlook improves after this game, with better winning probabilities against upcoming opponents.

Boise State:

The Broncos have a 91.7% winning probability for this game.
They are on track for a potential Group of Five spot in the College Football Playoff, and their remaining games have high winning probabilities.

Analysis

Okay, you’ve got this classic David vs. Goliath scenario brewing in Boise. San Diego State, the scrappy underdog, is rolling into town with a new coach and something to prove. They’re like the Oakland A’s of college football, trying to outsmart the system with grit and a lot of hustle. But then there’s Boise State, the perennial powerhouse, the kings of the blue turf. They’re the New York Yankees, used to winning and expected to dominate.

But here’s the thing: Boise State has this weird quirk. When they’re supposed to win big, they sometimes… don’t. It’s like they get bored or something. And San Diego State? Well, they’ve been defying expectations all season. They’re like that one stock you didn’t think would make a comeback, but suddenly it’s surging. Nobody saw it coming.

You might think this is just another game, but it’s more than that. It’s a clash of cultures, a test of wills. Can San Diego State, with its new coach and underdog mentality, pull off the upset? Or will Boise State crush their dreams with its home-field advantage and history of dominance? It’s a high-stakes game, and the tension is thicker than the Idaho potato soup they serve in the stadium.

Prediction

The air crackles with anticipation. The Broncos, bathed in the eerie glow of the blue turf, exude an aura of invincibility. But beneath the surface, a tremor of doubt. The Aztecs, eyes locked on their prey, carry the quiet confidence of a wolf pack circling its quarry.

This is not a game of mere statistics and spreadsheets. It’s a battle of souls, a collision of destinies. Boise State, the established power, yearns to maintain its grip on the throne. The hungry challenger, San Diego State, fights for recognition and a place at the table.

The final whistle blows. The scoreboard tells a story of Boise State’s dominance: 35-14. But the numbers don’t reveal the whole truth. They don’t show the fierce struggle, the moments of brilliance, the echoes of what could have been. San Diego State, though defeated, leaves the field with heads held high. They have pushed the giants to the brink, proven their mettle, and earned respect that transcends the final score.

Game 2: (3) Ohio State at (7) Penn State

No. 3 Ohio State (7-1) will face No. 7 Penn State (7-0) in a crucial Big Ten matchup on Saturday, November 2, 2024, at Beaver Stadium in University Park, Pennsylvania. The game will kick off at noon ET and be broadcast on Fox.

Betting Odds and Predictions

The betting odds and predictions for this game are notably close:

Spread: SMU -7.5
Moneyline: SMU -340, Pittsburgh +270
Over/Under: 59 points

Interestingly, the College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter (CFN FPM) slightly favors Penn State with a spread of Penn State -1.5.

Key Factors

Recent History: Ohio State has won the last seven meetings between these teams, indicating a psychological edge.
Home Field Advantage: Penn State will benefit from playing at Beaver Stadium, which could be a significant factor.
Against the Spread (ATS): Both teams are 3-4 ATS this season, suggesting neither has a clear advantage in covering the spread.
Recent Performance: Ohio State has failed to cover in their last two games, including a narrow loss to Oregon.
Weather: The forecast calls for partly cloudy conditions with mild temperatures, which shouldn’t significantly impact the game.

Outlook by Team

Ohio State:

The Buckeyes have a 47.5% winning probability for this game.
A win would keep them in contention for the Big Ten Championship and the College Football Playoff.
Their remaining schedule looks favorable, with high winning probabilities against most opponents.

Penn State:

The Nittany Lions have a 52.5% winning probability for this game.
A win could potentially secure their spot in the College Football Playoff and the Big Ten title game.
Their remaining schedule appears relatively easy, with high winning probabilities against all opponents.

Analysis

This game is a real barnburner. Ohio State, the big, bad Buckeyes, strolling into Happy Valley like they own the place. They’re the Goldman Sachs of college football, all about tradition and pedigree. But Penn State? They’re the hungry upstarts, the Robinhood traders trying to disrupt the establishment.

Now, on paper, Ohio State should have this in the bag. They’ve got the history, the talent, the whole nine yards. But something’s not quite right. They’ve been stumbling lately, like a thoroughbred with a pulled hamstring. And Penn State? They’re playing with a fire in their belly, a chip on their shoulder. They’re like that meme stock, GameStop, ready to explode.

But here’s the kicker: Penn State has this weird thing about pressure. It’s like they get stage fright when the spotlight’s on. And Ohio State? Well, they’re used to the big stage. They thrive on it. It’s like they’re playing with house money.

This game is not just about X’s and O’s. It’s about psychology, about who wants it more. With their home crowd and underdog mentality, can Penn State pull off the upset? Or will Ohio State silence the doubters with their championship pedigree and ability to perform under pressure? It’s a high-stakes game, folks, and the tension is thicker than a Philly cheesesteak.

Prediction

This is not merely a contest of athletic prowess. It’s a clash of wills, a battle for supremacy. Hungry for victory, Penn State seeks to break the chains of history. Ohio State, the reigning king, fights to preserve its legacy.

The final whistle echoes through the valley. The scoreboard illuminates the night: Penn State 24, Ohio State 21. The upset is complete. The Nittany Lions have roared to victory, their hearts and spirit carrying them through the storm. Ohio State, wounded but not broken, retreats into the night, knowing that the battle for dominance has just begun.

Game 3: Pitt @ SMU

No. 18 Pittsburgh (7-0, 3-0 ACC) will face No. 20 SMU (7-1, 4-0 ACC) in a crucial ACC matchup on Saturday, November 2, 2024, at Gerald J. Ford Stadium in University Park, Texas—the game broadcast on the ACC Network.

Betting Odds and Predictions

The betting odds for this game favor SMU:

Spread: SMU -7.5
Moneyline: SMU -340, Pittsburgh +270
Over/Under: 59 points

Interestingly, the College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter (CFN FPM) sees the game as a “pick’em”.

Key Factors

Historical Record: SMU leads the all-time series 3-2-1, with their last meeting in 2012.

Recent Performance: Pittsburgh is undefeated at 7-0, while SMU has a strong 7-1 record.

Against the Spread (ATS): Pittsburgh has been excellent ATS at 6-1, including 2-0 as an underdog. SMU has failed to cover three times as a favorite this season.

Weather: The forecast calls for rainy conditions, which could impact the game plan for both teams.

Quarterback Play: SMU’s switch to Kevin Jennings at quarterback has recently improved their performance.

Outlook by Team

Pittsburgh:

The Panthers have a 50.6% winning probability for this game.
They’ve won many close games this season, suggesting luck and resilience.
Their defense has been opportunistic, with three pick-sixes in their last game against Syracuse.

SMU:

The Mustangs have a 49.4% winning probability for this game.
They’ve shown consistent improvement, especially since changing quarterbacks.
SMU is coming off a game with six turnovers, which is likely an anomaly.

Analysis

In this matchup, we have two overperforming squads defying preseason predictions, each with a unique storyline. Pittsburgh, sitting undefeated, has won a series of nail-biters, showing grit but perhaps testing the bounds of luck. Conversely, SMU has been on a steady upward trajectory, bolstered by a passionate home crowd that could be a game-changer.

Key Factors to Watch:

Turnover Battle: Both teams have recently emerged from turnover-heavy games that were borderline chaotic. But volatility doesn’t tend to linger; we’re likely to see a reversion to the mean here. This could give an edge to whichever team capitalizes on each opportunity.

SMU’s Dual-Threat QB: Pittsburgh’s defense hasn’t faced a genuine dual-threat quarterback, which will test their ability to handle both the pass and the scramble. SMU’s quarterback, Jennings, brings a dynamic quality that could break open Pittsburgh’s defensive schemes.

Weather Impact: Forecasts call for rain, which often turns passing into a slippery gamble. In such conditions, expect a heavy reliance on the ground game, potentially increasing the chance of turnovers, fumbles, and short-field opportunities.

Prediction

While Pittsburgh has proven itself resilient in close encounters, SMU’s home-field advantage and steadily improving roster could tilt the scales. Jennings and the Mustangs’ offense should be capable of pressuring Pittsburgh’s defense in ways they haven’t yet experienced this season. Given a return to average turnover rates and SMU’s balanced approach, they look positioned to edge out the Panthers.

Score Prediction:

SMU 31, Pittsburgh 24

This forecast aligns with the current betting odds, reflecting the likely tightness of the contest. With the potential for rain to stymie offensive flow, the game should settle under the 59-point over/under, as weather conditions push teams to lean more on the ground game and conservative strategies.

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Coaches Hot Seat is Targeting Winners for Week 9

Mark Haines on October 24, 2024

Think you know college football? Think again. Coaches Hot Seat spends a little time listening to the Targeting Winners Podcast every Friday afternoon during the season. We take our picks and look for the storylines, the upsets, the wins, and the losses to bring you the inside scoop on where the seats are getting hot. We’re not just talking about picking winners but about understanding the why behind the wins. The hidden narratives, the coaching mismatches, the moments that define a season.

The CFB Dudes at Targeting Winners live and breathe this stuff. They break down film, analyze matchups, and find the edges that the casual fan misses. We compare our picks with the Targeting Winner’s intel, and boom!

So buckle up, because we’re about to take you on a wild ride through three games we’ve got our eye on this week. Fans looking for an edge? You’ve come to the right place.

Notre Dame vs. Navy: The Midshipmen’s Mutiny

Notre Dame limps in, battered and bruised. Five starters down, maybe more. They’re like a prizefighter with a glass jaw, and Navy, they come in with a battering ram. 6-0, averaging 45 points a game. Blake Horvath, their quarterback? He’s not just running the triple option, he’s weaponizing it. Think Barry Sanders with a playbook designed to make defensive coordinators cry.

The line moved? Of course, it did. Smart money knows: Notre Dame’s defense hasn’t seen this kind of chaos. They’re trained for chess matches, not bar fights.

The Play: Navy +12.5. Take it, and don’t look back. This isn’t about talent; it’s about heart. Navy’s got it in spades.

Penn State vs. Wisconsin: The Calm Before the Storm

Penn State is undefeated, but they just survived a brawl with USC. Now they’re staring down Ohio State, the biggest game of their season. It’s a classic trap game. Wisconsin smells blood.

But here’s the thing: Penn State’s defense is a force. Drew Allar, their quarterback? He’s growing up fast. Wisconsin’s offense? Let’s say they haven’t exactly been lighting up the scoreboard.

Camp Randall’s a tough place to play, sure. But Penn State’s been there, done that. They’ve got the experience, the defense, and the quarterback play to weather the storm.

The Play: Penn State -6.5. They’ll win this one ugly, but a win’s a win. And take the Under 47.5. This game’s going to be a slugfest.

Boise State vs. UNLV: The Rebels’ Redemption

Boise State has Ashton Jeanty, a one-man wrecking crew. But here’s their problem: their quarterback, Maddux Madsen, is like a Ferrari with a lawnmower engine. He has lots of flash but not enough horsepower.

UNLV? They’ve got a secret weapon: the “Go-Go Offense.” Hajj-Malik Williams, their quarterback, is slinging the ball like he’s got something to prove. And their offensive line? They’re opening holes you could drive a truck through.

Boise’s defense? They lead the nation in sacks but can’t stop a nosebleed on third-and-short. UNLV’s going to exploit that weakness.

The Play: UNLV +140 on the moneyline. They’re at home, they’re playing with confidence, and they’re about to pull off the upset. Boise State? They’re about to learn a hard lesson: talent only gets you so far.

There you have it. Three games, three takes. This is all about the story. And these stories, they’re just getting started. Post your comments here.

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Blog Article

What We’re Watching On Saturday

Mark Haines on September 7, 2024

Featured Game: Texas at Michigan

Location: Ann Arbor, Michigan

Game Time: Noon Eastern; 9:00 a.m. Pacific

Television: Fox

Game Preview

In a highly anticipated early-season matchup, the No. 10 Michigan Wolverines (1-0) host the No. 3 Texas Longhorns (1-0) at Michigan Stadium on Saturday. This clash between two of college football’s winningest programs marks only the second-ever meeting between these storied teams.

Key Storylines

Michigan’s First Real Test: After facing weak non-conference schedules in recent years, Michigan faces its first ranked non-conference opponent since 2019. The Wolverines are underdogs at home for the first time since 2021.

Texas Riding High: The Longhorns are coming off an impressive 52-0 shutout win over Colorado State and look to build on last year’s College Football Playoff appearance.

Quarterback Contrast: Texas has the edge with experienced QB Quinn Ewers, while Michigan turns to former walk-on Davis Warren in just his second start.

Strength vs. Strength: Michigan’s run-heavy offense will try to establish dominance against Texas’ stout defensive front.

Big Play Potential: Texas’ explosive offense, led by coach Steve Sarkisian, will test Michigan’s aggressive defense under new coordinator Wink Martindale.

Players To Watch

Michigan

QB Davis Warren

RB Donovan Edwards

TE Colston Loveland

LB Jaishawn Barham

CB Will Johnson

Texas

QB Quinn Ewers

WR Isaiah Bond

RB Jaydon Blue

LB Anthony Hill Jr.

Edge Trey Moore

Keys to the Game

Michigan’s Ground Game: The Wolverines must establish their running attack early to control the clock and keep Texas’ offense off the field.

Quarterback Play: Can Davis Warren keep pace with Quinn Ewers and make enough plays to keep Michigan competitive?

Limiting Big Plays: Michigan’s defense needs to contain Texas’ explosive receivers and prevent chunk plays.

Trenches Battle: The matchup between Michigan’s offensive line and Texas’ defensive front could decide the game.

Special Teams: In a potentially close game, kickers Dominic Zvada (Michigan) and Bert Auburn (Texas) could play crucial roles.

Prediction

While Michigan has a home-field advantage and a solid recent track record, Texas has the edge in talent and quarterback play. The Longhorns’ experience in big games, including last year’s win at Alabama, gives them a slight advantage.

Texas 27, Michigan 24

This game has the potential to be an instant classic and could significantly impact both teams’ College Football Playoff aspirations.

Other early games we’re watching:

Arkansas at Oklahoma State

Location: Stillwater, Oklahoma

Time: Noon Eastern; 9:00 am Pacific

Television: ABC

Kansas State at Tulane

Location: New Orleans, Louisiana

Time: Noon Eastern; 9:00 am Pacific

Television: ESPN

Afternoon Featured Game: Baylor at Utah

Location: Salt Lake City, Utah

Game Time: 3:30 p.m. Eastern; 12:30 p.m. Pacific

Television: Fox

In a unique non-conference matchup between two Big 12 teams, the Baylor Bears (1-0) travel to Salt Lake City to face the No. 11 Utah Utes (1-0) at Rice-Eccles Stadium on Saturday, September 7, 2024. Kickoff is set for 2:30 p.m. MT on FOX.

Key Storylines

Big 12 Homecoming: Although both teams are now in the Big 12, this game counts as non-conference because it was scheduled years ago when Utah was still in the Pac-12.

Return of the Stars: Utah’s quarterback Cam Rising and tight end Brant Kuithe made impressive returns from injury in week one, connecting for three touchdowns.

Baylor’s Revenge: The Bears look to avenge last year’s close 20-13 loss to Utah in Waco.

Defensive Shift: Baylor head coach Dave Aranda has taken over defensive coordinator duties, which could lead to schematic changes.

Home Field Advantage: Utah has won 32 of their last 34 home games and boasts an 84-game sellout streak at Rice-Eccles Stadium.

Players to Watch

Baylor

QB Dequan Finn

WR Ketron Jackson Jr.

RB Richard Reese

LB Matt Jones

DL Garmon Randolph

Utah

QB Cameron Rising

TE Brant Kuithe

RB Dijon Stanley

DT Junior Tafuna

CB Smith Snowden

Keys to the Game

Quarterback Play: Can Baylor’s Dequan Finn match the efficiency and production of Utah’s Cam Rising?

Establishing the Run: Both teams will look to improve their ground games after somewhat lackluster performances in week one.

Defensive Adjustments: How will Baylor’s defense, now led by Dave Aranda, contain Utah’s potent offense?

Special Teams Impact: Kickers Bert Auburn (Baylor) and Dominic Zvada (Utah) could play crucial roles in a potentially close game.

Limiting Turnovers: Both teams had turnover issues in their openers and will need to protect the ball better in this matchup.

Coaches’ Perspectives

Baylor’s Dave Aranda: “We’ve got something to prove. I think that we got a bunch of guys that want to win and want to achieve and want to be that team, and we know that the team we’re playing is kind of that team. And so we have to be able to show up with our best.”

Utah’s Kyle Whittingham: “We were fortunate to get out of there with a win last year. We haven’t forgotten that. It was a right down to the wire game. We have to prepare the right way all week long, just like we do every single week and be ready for a fight because that’s what it’s going to be.”

Prediction

While Baylor showed promise in their opener, Utah’s experience, home-field advantage, and the return of key players give them the edge. Expect a closer game than the odds suggest, but Utah should come out on top.

Utah 31, Baylor 24

This game will be a critical early-season test for both teams and could have significant implications for their respective Big 12 and national title aspirations.

Other Mid-Day Games We’re Watching

Iowa State at Iowa

Location: Iowa City, Iowa

Game Time: 3:30 Eastern; 12:30 Pacific

Television: CBS

Michigan State at Maryland

Location: College Park, Maryland

Game Time: 3:30 Eastern; 12:30 Pacific

Television: BTN – Big Ten Network

Night Game: Boise State at Oregon

Location: Eugene, Oregon

Time: 10:00 PM Eastern; 7:00 pm Pacific

Television: Peacock

In a compelling non-conference matchup, the Boise State Broncos (1-0) travel to Eugene to face the No. 7 Oregon Ducks (1-0) at Autzen Stadium on Saturday, September 7, 2024. Kickoff is set for 7 PM PT and will be broadcast on Peacock.

Key Storylines

Oregon’s Offensive Struggles: The Ducks look to bounce back from a lackluster offensive performance in their 24-14 win over Idaho.

Boise State’s Upset Bid: The Broncos aim to continue their historical success against Oregon, having won all three previous meetings.

Ashton Jeanty’s Momentum: Boise State’s running back comes off a record-breaking 267-yard, six-touchdown performance against Georgia Southern.

Ducks’ National Championship Aspirations: Oregon enters the season with high expectations as it prepares for its inaugural Big Ten season.

Coaching Chess Match: Dan Lanning’s defense vs. Dirk Koetter’s offense could be the key tactical battle of the game.

Players to Watch

Boise State

RB Ashton Jeanty

QB Maddux Madsen

WR Prince Strachan

DT Braxton Fely

Oregon

QB Dillon Gabriel

RB Jordan James

WRs Tez Johnson and Evan Stewart

CB Jabbar Muhammad

Keys to the Game

Oregon’s Offensive Line Performance: The Ducks’ O-line struggled against Idaho and faces a tough test against Boise State’s front seven.

Explosive Plays: Oregon’s offense lacked big plays in week one, and limiting explosive plays will be crucial for Boise State’s defense.

Boise State’s Passing Game: The Broncos need to use their size advantage at receiver against Oregon’s smaller secondary.

Containing Ashton Jeanty: Oregon’s front seven will be tested by Boise State’s star running back.

Special Teams and Trick Plays: Boise State may need to steal points through special teams or trick plays in a potential upset bid.

Coaches’ Perspectives

Oregon’s Dan Lanning on fixing offensive issues: “Don’t get off schedule. Don’t end up with third and longs. Don’t shoot ourselves in the foot with penalties. If we do that, we can move the ball.”

Boise State: The Broncos will likely aim to create chaos on defense and find ways to unlock an Oregon defense that looked formidable in week one.

Injury Report

Boise State:

HB Jambres Dubar – Dealing with a nagging injury from fall camp

C Mason Randolph – Left last game with a potential arm injury. Status uncertain

Oregon:

OL Matthew Bedford – May make his Duck debut after missing the opener.

Prediction

While Boise State has the potential to keep this game competitive, especially with Ashton Jeanty’s running ability, Oregon’s talent advantage and motivation to improve from last week’s performance should prove too much for the Broncos.

Oregon 38, Boise State 24

This game will be a crucial test for both teams—Oregon will need to prove its national championship credentials, and Boise State will need to show it can compete with top-tier programs. Expect a closer game than the odds suggest, but the Ducks should pull away in the second half.

Other Late Games We’re Watching:

Texas Tech vs Washington State

Location: Pullman, Washington

Time: 7:00 pm

Television: Fox

Mississippi State vs Arizona State

Location: Tempe, Arizona

Time: 10:30 pm Eastern, 7:30 pm Pacific

Television: ESPN

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