The Numbers That Don’t Add Up – Mountain West Championship Preview

Boise State and UNLV meet Friday night for the Mountain West Championship.

In the pristine December air of Las Vegas, two college football programs are about to collide in a way that defies conventional wisdom. One is Boise State, the upstart powerhouse that has been terrorizing the Mountain West Conference for years by systematically destroying opponents. The other is UNLV, a program that was a statistical asterisk just two years ago. It is the kind of team that makes gamblers rich by betting against them.

The transformation of UNLV under Barry Odom is the kind of story that makes sports executives nervous. It suggests that all their complex formulas for success – the million-dollar facilities, the decades of tradition, the elaborate recruiting networks – might matter less than finding the right person with the right idea at the right time. Odom, a defensive specialist with a track record of raising football programs from the dead, has turned UNLV into something that would have been unthinkable 24 months ago: a legitimate threat to Boise State’s dominance.

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This Week’s Targeting Winners Preview: Conference Championship Implications Abound

As we gear up for another edition of the Targeting Winners Podcast, which will be released this Friday (available on Spotify, Apple, or wherever you get your podcasts), let’s dive into three games that have caught our attention—each with its own compelling narrative around coaching futures and championship aspirations.

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Coaches Hot Seat is Targeting Winners for Week 10

Okay, folks, get ready. It’s that time of the week again when we dive headfirst into the chaotic, beautiful mess that is college football. Friday’s episode of the Targeting Winners podcast (available on Spotify, Apple, or wherever you get your podcasts) is coming at you hot, and trust me, you don’t want to miss this. They’ll be talking Xs and Os, dissecting matchups, and uncovering those hidden gems that’ll have you cashing in come Saturday.

Today, I’ll share my weekend bets and prep with you.  I’m not just throwing darts at a board. I’m breaking down film, analyzing stats, and getting into the nitty-gritty.

This week, I’ve got three games I’m reviewing: San Diego State at Boise State, Ohio State at Penn State, and Pitt at SMU. We’re talking potential upsets, high-scoring shootouts, and maybe even a bit of old-fashioned smashmouth football. So read my breakdown below, make your picks, and fire up Spotify, Apple, or wherever you get your podcasts on Friday afternoon. Then, get ready to ride the wave with us.

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Coaches Hot Seat is Targeting Winners for Week 9

Think you know college football? Think again. Coaches Hot Seat spends a little time listening to the Targeting Winners Podcast every Friday afternoon during the season. We take our picks and look for the storylines, the upsets, the wins, and the losses to bring you the inside scoop on where the seats are getting hot. We’re not just talking about picking winners but about understanding the why behind the wins. The hidden narratives, the coaching mismatches, the moments that define a season.

The CFB Dudes at Targeting Winners live and breathe this stuff. They break down film, analyze matchups, and find the edges that the casual fan misses. We compare our picks with the Targeting Winner’s intel, and boom!

So buckle up, because we’re about to take you on a wild ride through three games we’ve got our eye on this week. Fans looking for an edge? You’ve come to the right place.

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What We’re Watching On Saturday

Featured Game: Texas at Michigan

Location: Ann Arbor, Michigan

Game Time: Noon Eastern; 9:00 a.m. Pacific

Television: Fox

Game Preview

In a highly anticipated early-season matchup, the No. 10 Michigan Wolverines (1-0) host the No. 3 Texas Longhorns (1-0) at Michigan Stadium on Saturday. This clash between two of college football’s winningest programs marks only the second-ever meeting between these storied teams.

Key Storylines

Michigan’s First Real Test: After facing weak non-conference schedules in recent years, Michigan faces its first ranked non-conference opponent since 2019. The Wolverines are underdogs at home for the first time since 2021.

Texas Riding High: The Longhorns are coming off an impressive 52-0 shutout win over Colorado State and look to build on last year’s College Football Playoff appearance.

Quarterback Contrast: Texas has the edge with experienced QB Quinn Ewers, while Michigan turns to former walk-on Davis Warren in just his second start.

Strength vs. Strength: Michigan’s run-heavy offense will try to establish dominance against Texas’ stout defensive front.

Big Play Potential: Texas’ explosive offense, led by coach Steve Sarkisian, will test Michigan’s aggressive defense under new coordinator Wink Martindale.

Players To Watch

Michigan

QB Davis Warren

RB Donovan Edwards

TE Colston Loveland

LB Jaishawn Barham

CB Will Johnson

Texas

QB Quinn Ewers

WR Isaiah Bond

RB Jaydon Blue

LB Anthony Hill Jr.

Edge Trey Moore

Keys to the Game

Michigan’s Ground Game: The Wolverines must establish their running attack early to control the clock and keep Texas’ offense off the field.

Quarterback Play: Can Davis Warren keep pace with Quinn Ewers and make enough plays to keep Michigan competitive?

Limiting Big Plays: Michigan’s defense needs to contain Texas’ explosive receivers and prevent chunk plays.

Trenches Battle: The matchup between Michigan’s offensive line and Texas’ defensive front could decide the game.

Special Teams: In a potentially close game, kickers Dominic Zvada (Michigan) and Bert Auburn (Texas) could play crucial roles.

Prediction

While Michigan has a home-field advantage and a solid recent track record, Texas has the edge in talent and quarterback play. The Longhorns’ experience in big games, including last year’s win at Alabama, gives them a slight advantage.

Texas 27, Michigan 24

This game has the potential to be an instant classic and could significantly impact both teams’ College Football Playoff aspirations.

Other early games we’re watching:

Arkansas at Oklahoma State

Location: Stillwater, Oklahoma

Time: Noon Eastern; 9:00 am Pacific

Television: ABC

Kansas State at Tulane

Location: New Orleans, Louisiana

Time: Noon Eastern; 9:00 am Pacific

Television: ESPN

Afternoon Featured Game: Baylor at Utah

Location: Salt Lake City, Utah

Game Time: 3:30 p.m. Eastern; 12:30 p.m. Pacific

Television: Fox

In a unique non-conference matchup between two Big 12 teams, the Baylor Bears (1-0) travel to Salt Lake City to face the No. 11 Utah Utes (1-0) at Rice-Eccles Stadium on Saturday, September 7, 2024. Kickoff is set for 2:30 p.m. MT on FOX.

Key Storylines

Big 12 Homecoming: Although both teams are now in the Big 12, this game counts as non-conference because it was scheduled years ago when Utah was still in the Pac-12.

Return of the Stars: Utah’s quarterback Cam Rising and tight end Brant Kuithe made impressive returns from injury in week one, connecting for three touchdowns.

Baylor’s Revenge: The Bears look to avenge last year’s close 20-13 loss to Utah in Waco.

Defensive Shift: Baylor head coach Dave Aranda has taken over defensive coordinator duties, which could lead to schematic changes.

Home Field Advantage: Utah has won 32 of their last 34 home games and boasts an 84-game sellout streak at Rice-Eccles Stadium.

Players to Watch

Baylor

QB Dequan Finn

WR Ketron Jackson Jr.

RB Richard Reese

LB Matt Jones

DL Garmon Randolph

Utah

QB Cameron Rising

TE Brant Kuithe

RB Dijon Stanley

DT Junior Tafuna

CB Smith Snowden

Keys to the Game

Quarterback Play: Can Baylor’s Dequan Finn match the efficiency and production of Utah’s Cam Rising?

Establishing the Run: Both teams will look to improve their ground games after somewhat lackluster performances in week one.

Defensive Adjustments: How will Baylor’s defense, now led by Dave Aranda, contain Utah’s potent offense?

Special Teams Impact: Kickers Bert Auburn (Baylor) and Dominic Zvada (Utah) could play crucial roles in a potentially close game.

Limiting Turnovers: Both teams had turnover issues in their openers and will need to protect the ball better in this matchup.

Coaches’ Perspectives

Baylor’s Dave Aranda: “We’ve got something to prove. I think that we got a bunch of guys that want to win and want to achieve and want to be that team, and we know that the team we’re playing is kind of that team. And so we have to be able to show up with our best.”

Utah’s Kyle Whittingham: “We were fortunate to get out of there with a win last year. We haven’t forgotten that. It was a right down to the wire game. We have to prepare the right way all week long, just like we do every single week and be ready for a fight because that’s what it’s going to be.”

Prediction

While Baylor showed promise in their opener, Utah’s experience, home-field advantage, and the return of key players give them the edge. Expect a closer game than the odds suggest, but Utah should come out on top.

Utah 31, Baylor 24

This game will be a critical early-season test for both teams and could have significant implications for their respective Big 12 and national title aspirations.

Other Mid-Day Games We’re Watching

Iowa State at Iowa

Location: Iowa City, Iowa

Game Time: 3:30 Eastern; 12:30 Pacific

Television: CBS

Michigan State at Maryland

Location: College Park, Maryland

Game Time: 3:30 Eastern; 12:30 Pacific

Television: BTN – Big Ten Network

Night Game: Boise State at Oregon

Location: Eugene, Oregon

Time: 10:00 PM Eastern; 7:00 pm Pacific

Television: Peacock

In a compelling non-conference matchup, the Boise State Broncos (1-0) travel to Eugene to face the No. 7 Oregon Ducks (1-0) at Autzen Stadium on Saturday, September 7, 2024. Kickoff is set for 7 PM PT and will be broadcast on Peacock.

Key Storylines

Oregon’s Offensive Struggles: The Ducks look to bounce back from a lackluster offensive performance in their 24-14 win over Idaho.

Boise State’s Upset Bid: The Broncos aim to continue their historical success against Oregon, having won all three previous meetings.

Ashton Jeanty’s Momentum: Boise State’s running back comes off a record-breaking 267-yard, six-touchdown performance against Georgia Southern.

Ducks’ National Championship Aspirations: Oregon enters the season with high expectations as it prepares for its inaugural Big Ten season.

Coaching Chess Match: Dan Lanning’s defense vs. Dirk Koetter’s offense could be the key tactical battle of the game.

Players to Watch

Boise State

RB Ashton Jeanty

QB Maddux Madsen

WR Prince Strachan

DT Braxton Fely

Oregon

QB Dillon Gabriel

RB Jordan James

WRs Tez Johnson and Evan Stewart

CB Jabbar Muhammad

Keys to the Game

Oregon’s Offensive Line Performance: The Ducks’ O-line struggled against Idaho and faces a tough test against Boise State’s front seven.

Explosive Plays: Oregon’s offense lacked big plays in week one, and limiting explosive plays will be crucial for Boise State’s defense.

Boise State’s Passing Game: The Broncos need to use their size advantage at receiver against Oregon’s smaller secondary.

Containing Ashton Jeanty: Oregon’s front seven will be tested by Boise State’s star running back.

Special Teams and Trick Plays: Boise State may need to steal points through special teams or trick plays in a potential upset bid.

Coaches’ Perspectives

Oregon’s Dan Lanning on fixing offensive issues: “Don’t get off schedule. Don’t end up with third and longs. Don’t shoot ourselves in the foot with penalties. If we do that, we can move the ball.”

Boise State: The Broncos will likely aim to create chaos on defense and find ways to unlock an Oregon defense that looked formidable in week one.

Injury Report

Boise State:

HB Jambres Dubar – Dealing with a nagging injury from fall camp

C Mason Randolph – Left last game with a potential arm injury. Status uncertain

Oregon:

OL Matthew Bedford – May make his Duck debut after missing the opener.

Prediction

While Boise State has the potential to keep this game competitive, especially with Ashton Jeanty’s running ability, Oregon’s talent advantage and motivation to improve from last week’s performance should prove too much for the Broncos.

Oregon 38, Boise State 24

This game will be a crucial test for both teams—Oregon will need to prove its national championship credentials, and Boise State will need to show it can compete with top-tier programs. Expect a closer game than the odds suggest, but the Ducks should pull away in the second half.

Other Late Games We’re Watching:

Texas Tech vs Washington State

Location: Pullman, Washington

Time: 7:00 pm

Television: Fox

Mississippi State vs Arizona State

Location: Tempe, Arizona

Time: 10:30 pm Eastern, 7:30 pm Pacific

Television: ESPN

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