Coaches Hot Seat Rankings – Week 14

Coaches Hot Seat Rankings—Week 14. Our full rankings are delayed due to technical difficulties. Our team is working on a solution, and we will release them as soon as possible.

In the meantime, the Top 20 appears on our site.

The coaching carousel has started spinning earlier than expected this year, with two notable moves reshaping the landscape just days before rivalry weekend. On Tuesday morning, North Carolina shocked the college football world by parting ways with Hall of Fame coach Mack Brown, ending his second stint in Chapel Hill after six seasons. The decision came just 24 hours after Brown had publicly stated his intention to return in 2025, marking an awkward end for the 73-year-old who led the Tar Heels to six straight bowl appearances during his return tenure.

While Brown prepares for his final game against NC State this Saturday, Rice made its move by hiring Davidson head coach Scott Abell to lead their program. Abell, who built Davidson into an FCS powerhouse with his innovative triple-option offense, faces the challenge of translating his success to the FBS level.

These early moves could be harbingers of a relatively quiet coaching carousel, as many programs appear hesitant to make changes amid uncertainty surrounding player revenue sharing and a thin candidate pool. However, that hasn’t stopped the temperature from rising for several coaches fighting to save their jobs.

In this week’s Hot Seat Rankings, we examine the mounting pressure at FIU, where Mike MacIntyre’s tenure has devolved into chaos amid allegations of misconduct and thrown furniture. We’ll also analyze Neal Brown’s expensive mediocrity at West Virginia, Kenni Burns’ historically bad run at Kent State, and the declining returns at Appalachian State under Shawn Clark.

Week 14 – Coaches Hot Seat Top 4

Mike MacIntryre, head coach of Florida International - Coaches Hot Seat

In the economics of college football, Mike MacIntyre’s tenure at FIU represents a perfect market failure – where moral hazard meets reputational collapse in real-time. His 11-24 record tells only part of the story; the real ledger is written in broken trust and thrown furniture.

The math is brutal: one chair was thrown in a rivalry game halftime, twelve current players silently support allegations of misconduct, and eight are starters. It’s a balance sheet of fear, where scholarships become leverage and silence becomes currency.

MacIntyre’s recent attempt to rewrite FIU’s history (“this program hasn’t had a good history since the beginning”) reads less like a gaffe and more like a desperate man’s attempt to hedge against his failure. However, markets have a way of finding true value, and in college football, truth emerges in empty seats and player testimonies.

The most telling metric isn’t his 3-8 record in 2024 but the text message circulating through his locker room, begging players to defend him to the athletic director. It’s the kind of desperate liquidity call that precedes institutional collapse, where a coach’s credibility becomes the ultimate distressed asset.

In the end, MacIntyre’s FIU tenure might be remembered not for the games lost but for the moment when the cost of silence exceeded the price of speaking out.

Neal Brown - Head Coach of West Virginia Mountaineers - Coaches Hot Seat

Neal Brown’s story at West Virginia reads like a cautionary tale of college football’s middle class. In an era when programs are expected to ascend or decline, Brown mastered the art of maintaining perfect mediocrity—a feat that paradoxically sealed his fate.

Every season followed a similar script: flashes of potential undermined by predictable setbacks. He’d win just enough to keep hope alive but never enough to compete. His 37-34 record tells the story of a program stuck in limbo, neither good enough to challenge the conference elite nor bad enough to force immediate change.

The numbers that matter aren’t the wins and losses but the empty seats at Milan Puskar Stadium. In college football’s attention economy, being average is worse than being terrible. At least terrible teams inspire passion. Brown’s teams inspired something far more dangerous: indifference.

The 2024 season, following a deceptively promising 9-4 campaign exposed the fundamental flaw in Brown’s tenure. When finally given a veteran team and heightened expectations, his program reverted to its mean. A pattern that speaks to a larger truth about college football: you can’t build a program on almost but not quite.

Brown’s buyout is $16.7 million if fired before Dec. 31, 2024. Reports suggest WVU donors may help fund this buyout, making his termination more financially feasible than previously thought. The high buyout was initially considered job security, but donor intervention changed that calculus.

Kenni Burns - Kent State Head Coach - Coaches Hot Seat

Kenni Burns’ tenure at Kent State has devolved from a cautionary tale into pure absurdity. His 2024 season reads like a dark comedy: losing to St. Francis (PA), a non-major program, before suffering historic beatdowns at Tennessee (71-0) and Penn State (56-0). His overall record now stands at 1-33, with zero wins in 2024.

The numbers tell a story of competitive collapse. Kent State hasn’t just lost – they’ve been outscored 486-160. In MAC play, where mid-majors are supposed to find their level, they’ve been outscored 282-99. The final indignity came in losing the Wagon Wheel rivalry to Akron, sacrificing even the $5,000 bonus that might have helped with those credit card payments.

But the contract extension through 2028 transforms this from tragedy into farce. Kent State isn’t just paying for failure – they’re financing it long-term, like a subprime mortgage on competitive irrelevance. Their head coach can’t balance his checkbook, and their football program can’t score a point against top-25 teams. Both, somehow, keep getting extended credit.

In the end, Burns isn’t just losing games—he’s redefining the boundaries of institutional patience in an industry famous for lacking it.

Burns’ buyout after 2024 is $1.51 million, per his contract extension signed in February 2024. This figure represents approximately three years of his base salary at Kent State.

Shawn Clark - Appalachian State Head Coach - Coaches Hot Seat

The 2024 season has only reinforced the narrative of App State’s decline under Clark. At 5-5 (potentially 5-6 with Georgia Southern remaining), the program continues its downward trajectory from its previous G5 powerhouse status.

Key 2024 Issues:

  • Blowout losses (66-20 to Clemson, 48-14 to South Alabama)
  • 2-5 in Sun Belt before recent recovery
  • Defensive collapse (allowing 35.1 PPG)

However, recent wins over JMU and ODU show signs of life. The question is whether this late-season surge can save Clark’s job, especially given his careful contract structure with decreasing buyouts.

The math is stark: Clark’s overall record is now 44-28 (.611), but the trend line points downward. For a program that once dominated the Sun Belt, mediocrity feels like failure. App State faces a decision: whether maintaining a winning record justifies retaining a coach who’s transformed their championship expectations into bowl eligibility hopes.

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Week 12 Hot Seat Rankings Reveal The New Math of Firing Coaches: When Balance Sheets Trump Box Scores

Graphic by Tony Altimore @TJAltimore on X

When Money Changes Everything: College Football’s New Math

If you want to understand what’s happening in college football right now, forget about the polls, the playoff rankings, and even the win-loss records. Instead, study Tony Altimore’s (@TJAltimore on X) financial visualization of athletic department debt. This document looks less like a sports analysis and more like a hedge fund’s risk assessment of distressed assets. What Altimore has captured, in clean lines and horrifying clarity, is the moment when college football’s financial chickens have come home to roost.

The numbers are staggering enough to make a Wall Street quant nervous. Major athletic departments have the kind of revenue shortfalls that would make a leveraged buyout specialist think twice, all while trying to maintain the facade that their business model isn’t fundamentally broken. Our Hot Seat Rankings arrive in this financial maelstrom, a list that increasingly reads like a collection of toxic assets nobody knows how to value.

Consider the range of buyouts in play: Marshall could rid itself of Charles Huff for the price of a mid-level administrator’s salary ($125,917), while Baylor would need to liquidate the equivalent of a small endowment ($20-25 million) to move on from Dave Aranda. In any rational market, these numbers represent the cost of doing business. But in 2024’s college football economy, where athletic departments are juggling NIL collectives, revenue sharing, the House Settlement, facility arms races, and operational deficits that would make a venture capitalist blanch, even UMass’s relatively modest $800,000 obligation to Don Brown looks less like a buyout and more like a luxury they might not be able to afford.

We’re witnessing the emergence of a new market inefficiency: coaches who become unsackable not through their success but through the financial implications of their failure. In a world where half our Hot Seat candidates owe their job security to their buyout clauses rather than their win percentages, we’ve entered a realm where being too expensive to fire has become its own kind of competitive advantage.

Welcome to college football’s new normal, where balance sheets matter more than playbooks, and the most important numbers aren’t on the scoreboard but in the fine print of contracts that increasingly look like they were designed by derivatives traders rather than athletic directors.

Here’s our Top 10 for this week, plus a little insider information on each:

1. Don Brown – UMass

Don Brown sits atop college football’s hot seat list in a way that perfectly captures the industry’s bias for action over patience. UMass administrators, energized by their MAC invitation and staring at a manageable $800,000 buyout, seem eager to start fresh before the 2025 conference transition. The kind of institutional momentum creates its own gravity – the desire to make a splashy hire before joining a new conference to signal ambition and commitment to a brighter future. But there’s a fascinating market inefficiency at play here that nobody’s talking about: Brown might be the rare coach whose value to the program is about to increase precisely when they’re most inclined to remove him. His decades of MAC experience as a defensive coordinator at Central Michigan and Connecticut (during its MAC era) and his deep New England recruiting roots represent institutional knowledge that money can’t easily buy. UMass is preparing to make a classic institutional mistake: paying to remove expertise they’ll need to acquire again, all in service of a fresh start that might not be as fresh as they imagine. After all, the next coach will face the same fundamental challenges – navigating one more year of independence before transitioning to the MAC – with less experience in both contexts.

2. Charles Huff – Marshall

Huff’s position has improved slightly with a recent win, but he is in year 4 of a 5-year contract, and his small $125,917 buyout means Marshall could make a change without significant financial strain. His hot seat status remains high, though the recent win may have bought him some time.

3. Stan Drayton – Temple

This week, a 52 – 6 loss to Tulane has intensified the pressure on Drayton. With no specified buyout disclosed, Temple might have flexibility in making a coaching change if they decide to go that route. The program’s struggles in the American Athletic Conference likely contribute to his hot seat status.

4. Trent Dilfer – UAB

Dilfer’s hot seat status has worsened with another loss. His $4,116,667 buyout is significant for UAB, which might give him more time. However, his unusual comments, media interactions, and poor on-field results have quickly put him in a precarious position despite being only in his second year.

5. Dave Aranda – Baylor

Despite a bye week, Aranda remains on the hot seat. His substantial $20-25 million buyout is a major factor in Baylor’s decision-making process. Recent wins have improved his standing, and there’s an industry consensus that he’s trending towards returning in 2025, partly due to the financial implications of a coaching change.

6. Sam Pittman – Arkansas

Sam Pittman moves down to #6 on our Hot Seat Rankings in what might be college football’s most emotionally complicated coaching situation. He’s the kind of figure who makes fans want to invite him over for dinner while simultaneously wanting to throw their remote through the TV during games. His Arkansas team has shown improvement this year, but in a way that feels like watching a gifted student consistently turn in C+ work – there’s something both promising and maddening about it all. The blowout loss to Ole Miss exposed the fundamental disconnect: a team with SEC talent playing with the discipline of a midnight pickup game. And here’s where it gets interesting – and credit to Jackson Collier of the Hardwood Hogs Podcast (@JCHoops on X) for surfacing a contract provision that adds another layer to this Southern football soap opera: If Pittman can scrape together seven wins between Louisiana Tech and one more victory (including a potential bowl game), he triggers an automatic raise and extension. It’s the kind of clause that transforms Arkansas’s $10 million buyout decision from merely expensive to existentially complex. The boosters’ dilemma is almost Shakespearean: How do you fire someone everyone likes who’s making the team better but not as much better as it should be? Especially when the cost of doing so keeps threatening to go up?

7. Sonny Cumbie – Louisiana Tech

A loss this week has likely increased the pressure on Cumbie. With a $1,625,000 buyout, Louisiana Tech has some flexibility if it chooses to make a change. The program’s performance in Conference USA will determine his future.

8. Kevin Wilson – Tulsa

Wilson’s first season at Tulsa has been challenging, but a recent comeback win against UTSA may have improved his standing. His buyout details aren’t specified, but Tulsa’s financial situation and patience with new coaches could influence his job security.

9. Ryan Walters – Purdue

Despite the most recent 45-0 loss to Ohio State, reports suggest Walters is expected to get more time at Purdue. His $9,590,625 buyout and the administration’s recognition of NIL challenges in the Big Ten could provide him additional job security despite the team’s struggles this season.

10. Hugh Freeze – Auburn

Freeze’s $20,312,500 buyout is a significant factor in his job security. Auburn’s recent performance and Freeze’s past success at Ole Miss are considerations. While he’s on the hot seat, the financial implications of a coaching change might give him more time to turn the program around.

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Dilfer Moves to the Top of the Hot Seat Rankings. Neal Brown moves to #9.

The college football season is in full swing, and with it comes the inevitable scrutiny of coaches on the hot seat. This week, we’re closely monitoring two coaches: Trent Dilfer at UAB and Neal Brown at West Virginia. Dilfer’s Blazers are off to a dismal 1-6 start, and there’s growing discontent among fans and boosters alike. Brown, meanwhile, is facing pressure to turn things around at West Virginia, where he has yet to achieve a winning record in Big 12 play. We’re also watching Mark Stoops at Kentucky, who is facing a make-or-break season with the Wildcats.

Trent Dilfer: UAB Football and the Abyss

Let’s talk about UAB football. It’s a dumpster fire. It’s a train wreck. It’s a slow, agonizing descent into the abyss. And at the helm, steering this program into oblivion, is Trent Dilfer.

Remember those halcyon days under Bill Clark? Six straight winning seasons. Two conference championships. Three straight division titles. A brand new stadium. That’s the UAB many of these players signed up for. Instead, they got Dilfer.  

Now, the boosters are whispering. They say AD Mark Ingram and the Alabama Board of Trustees are trying to kill this program. Again. And honestly, it wouldn’t surprise me with Dilfer at the helm.

The Blazers are 1-6. They haven’t beaten an FBS opponent this year. They got trounced by Army. They got annihilated by Tulane. Dilfer inherited an ascending program, and has managed to crater it in less than two years.  

This isn’t about a few tough losses. This is about a complete and utter collapse. The defense is a sieve. The offense is anemic. The team has no fight, no spirit, no hope. They’ve been outscored 156-48 in conference play. They haven’t scored a touchdown in the first half of an AAC game. This team is competitive for precisely zero seconds against any real opponent.  

And Dilfer? He’s busy insulting his program. “It’s not like this is freakin’ Alabama,” he quipped. No, Trent, it’s worse. At least Alabama fans have the dignity to expect better. UAB fans are getting fed a steady diet of excuses and empty promises.  

Dilfer can talk about turning things around. He can talk about building a winning program. But the reality is, he’s lost the team, he’s lost the fans, and he’s lost the boosters. He’s lost everything except his $1.3 million salary.  

The UAB Blazers are a mess. Trent Dilfer made it. It’s time for Mark Ingram to make this right.

Neal Brown: Feeling the Heat in West Virginia

Neal Brown, the head football coach at West Virginia University, has officially joined the hot seat rankings at #9. While his current record of 34-33 over six seasons may not seem disastrous at first glance, a deeper dive reveals a lack of progress. With zero wins against ranked opponents and no appearances in the AP Top 25 throughout his tenure, the Mountaineers are yearning for a taste of success.  

Adding fuel to the fire, a dedicated group of West Virginia fans has launched a website and campaign dubbed “Fire Neal Brown.” Their mission is clear: to see Brown removed from his position. Although their initial plan to fly a banner over the WVU football game against Kansas State was thwarted, their message resonated.  

Despite the mounting pressure and growing discontent, a mid-season firing seems unlikely. The financial burden of a buyout, the potential for player exodus through the transfer portal, and the lingering (albeit slim) possibility of a Big 12 championship appearance make immediate action impractical. However, Brown’s days in Morgantown could be numbered if the Mountaineers’ performance doesn’t drastically improve.  

What are your thoughts? Who should be higher or lower on the list? Comment here.

See our full list of all 134 FBS coaches here.

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