Cal Football 2025: A Program at the Crossroads

Every college football program has a breaking point.

That point for the California Golden Bears, aka Cal Football, is a .490 winning percentage—what industry insiders call the “Minimum Acceptable” (MA) winning percentage. This proprietary metric, developed by Coaches Hot Seat (the authority on coaching job security), is a data-driven warning system. The countdown typically begins when a coach’s record falls below this threshold.

Justin Wilcox’s winning percentage currently sits at .457.

The Numbers Tell A Story (And It’s Not A Happy One)

Let’s look at Cal’s progression over the past three seasons:

Cal Football’s future depends on addressing these challenges and improving their overall performance.

  • 2022: 4-8 overall (2-7 in conference)
  • 2023: 6-7 overall (4-5 in conference)
  • 2024: 6-7 overall (2-6 in conference)

This isn’t just a pattern—it’s a problem. Wilcox’s tenure has been defined by incremental improvements followed by stagnation. The trajectory suggests a program stuck in neutral rather than building towards sustained success.

The $15 Million Question

Here’s what makes Cal’s situation particularly fascinating:

  • Wilcox is under contract through 2027
  • His 2025 compensation package totals $4.8 million
  • His buyout sits at approximately $15 million
  • His winning percentage remains below the critical .490 threshold

The Bears find themselves caught between the cost of change and the price of staying the same. Administrators loathe paying hefty buyouts, but they also know stagnation can cost even more—lost ticket sales, declining donations, and recruiting struggles. It’s a classic case of fiscal conservatism vs. competitive ambition.

But Here’s Where It Gets Interesting

Sensing the pressure, Wilcox has made his boldest move yet: a complete offensive overhaul.

The headline-grabber? Bryan Harsin as offensive coordinator. The subplot? Nick Rolovich as a senior offensive assistant.

Harsin, the former Auburn and Boise State head coach, brings a proven offensive system but arrives with baggage after a tumultuous SEC tenure. Rolovich getting a shot at a new coaching gig is fascinating—not just because of his high-risk, high-reward offensive mind but also because his tenure at Washington State ended over his refusal to comply with state vaccine mandates, not because of poor coaching.

Here’s what these moves tell us:

  • Wilcox finally acknowledges the need for wholesale offensive change.
  • The program is willing to take calculated risks on controversial but talented coaches.
  • The “defensive-minded” head coach is ceding offensive control.

The Numbers That Matter

Take a look at this offensive progression (or regression):

The decline in rushing yards from 2023 to 2024 is alarming. The offense isn’t just struggling—it’s losing its identity. For a team that relies on ball control and keeping its defense fresh, that’s a major red flag.

But here’s the silver lining—defensive improvement:

Wilcox’s defenses remain his calling card, and the strides made in 2024 suggest a unit capable of keeping Cal competitive. But in today’s college football landscape, defense alone doesn’t win championships—or job security.

The X-Factor Nobody’s Talking About

Rich Lyons.

Cal’s new chancellor isn’t just any administrator—he’s the first Cal undergraduate to hold the position in nearly a century. And he’s already talking about making football “self-supporting.”

This matters for three reasons:

  1. It signals potential changes in program evaluation. Wilcox isn’t just competing against expectations; he’s competing against financial sustainability models.
  2. It suggests new approaches to resource allocation. Don’t expect deep-pocketed institutional support if the football program can’t prove its worth.
  3. It adds another layer of pressure to perform. Wilcox now has a boss who understands the program’s impact on the university and might not be as patient as previous chancellors.

Here’s What Nobody Wants To Say Out Loud

The 2025 season isn’t just another year for Cal football.

It’s a referendum.

  • On Wilcox.
  • On the program’s direction.
  • On whether Cal can compete in the modern college football landscape.

With realignment reshaping conferences, NIL deals changing recruiting, and fan engagement at a premium, the Golden Bears can’t afford to drift any further into mediocrity. A failure to break through in 2025 could push the program toward drastic change.

The Bottom Line

The tools for success are there:

  • New offensive philosophy
  • Improved defensive metrics
  • Fresh administrative perspective
  • Second year in the ACC (without having to face Miami, Clemson, or Florida State)

But here’s the truth nobody wants to acknowledge:

None of it matters if Cal can’t finally break through that .490 threshold.

Because in college football, you either evolve or dissolve.

And 2025 will tell us which path Cal has chosen.

Finally…

Don’t miss another deep dive into college football’s most crucial storylines and program developments. Our team-by-team analysis gives you the insider perspective to understand where each program is headed in 2025 and beyond. Subscribe for free now to access our comprehensive breakdowns, exclusive hot seat rankings, and in-depth conference analysis delivered straight to your inbox. Join thousands of college football insiders who trust Coaches Hot Seat to keep them ahead of the game. Hit the link below to unlock all our premium content and never miss another update.

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Week 6 – Saturday Showdown – Game Preview and Schedule

Coaches Hot Seat Targets The Winners!

Coaches Hot Seat took a thrilling ride yesterday on the Targeting Winners podcast, and let me tell you, these guys know their stuff. We’re talking about the intersection of coaching pressure, game matchups, and cold, hard cash—the kind of analysis that makes you see the game in a new, exhilarating light.

We dove headfirst into the hottest seats in the nation, dissecting the coaches on the brink, the ones whose every decision could be their last. We talked about the odds, the whispers, the gut feelings that separate the winners from the losers, both on the field and in the sportsbook.

And guess what? We didn’t just analyze; We put our money where our mouths are. We broke down the week’s matchups and gave our picks raw and unfiltered. So, if you want to hear our insights, strategies, and predictions, check out this episode.

Trust me, it’s a wild ride. You’ll learn, you’ll laugh, and you might walk away with a whole new, informed perspective on the game. Click here to listen to the episode: https://open.spotify.com/episode/0Inr4sJteXILIu2Tftryhd?si=m_Hfogt-Qq-2wHsgnDm6XQ

Early Game

9 Missouri at 25 Texas A&M

TV: ABC/ESPN+

Game Time: Noon Eastern/9:00 AM Pacific

The Backstory

The Texas A&M Aggies and the Missouri Tigers, two SEC powerhouses with a shared history, are set to clash in a top-25 showdown in the heart of Texas.

The Stakes

The Aggies, led by the stoic Mike Elko, ride a wave of momentum. They’ve clawed their way to a 4-1 record, and their only blemish is a season-opening loss to Notre Dame. But the Tigers, under the charismatic Eliah Drinkwitz, are undefeated and ranked 9th in the nation. This game is more than just a conference matchup; it’s a statement game.

The Coaches

Elko and Drinkwitz have a history. They faced each other as coordinators in the ACC, with Drinkwitz’s high-flying NC State offense getting the better of Elko’s Wake Forest defense. Now, they’re head coaches in the SEC, and the stakes are higher than ever.

The Players

The Aggies boast a dynamic quarterback in Marcel Reed, who has stepped in admirably for the injured Conner Weigman. They also have a rising star at receiver in Noah Thomas. The Tigers, meanwhile, have a balanced attack and a defense that has been stingy all season.

The Rivalry

The Aggies and Tigers have a long and intertwined history. They were both charter members of the Big 12 and made the jump to the SEC in 2012. They’ve played each other 16 times, with the Aggies holding a 9-7 edge. But the Tigers have won seven of the last ten, so the Aggies will seek revenge.

The Atmosphere

Kyle Field, the home of the Aggies, is one of the most intimidating venues in college football. The 12th Man, as the Aggie faithful are known, will be in full force, creating a cauldron of noise and energy.

The Prediction

This is a tough one to call. The Aggies have the home-field advantage, but the Tigers are more experienced. It will be a close game, but I will give the Tigers an edge. I think they’ll win by a field goal.

Don’t Miss It

This is a game you won’t want to miss. It’s a clash of styles, a battle of wills, and a rivalry renewed.

Afternoon Game

Game: 12 Ole Miss @ South Carolina

TV: ESPN

Game Time: 3:30 PM Eastern/12:30 PM Pacific

The air in Columbia, South Carolina, crackles with anticipation. It’s not just the humid October air, thick with the scent of barbeque and impending collisions. No, this is different. This is the feeling of a program on the rise, a sleeping giant stirring. After years of mediocrity, South Carolina is finally showing signs of life. And they’re about to face a wounded animal, a Rebel army licking its wounds after a shocking upset.

Ole Miss, the preseason darlings, the team with National Championship aspirations, stumbled. They tripped over a Kentucky team that South Carolina had dismantled just weeks earlier. Now, they limp into Williams-Brice Stadium, desperate to prove that last week was a fluke, a blip in their otherwise stellar radar.

But this isn’t the same South Carolina team that Ole Miss has grown accustomed to bullying. Shane Beamer has injected a new energy into this program, a swagger that’s been missing for years. They’ve got a quarterback, LaNorris Sellers, who, when healthy, is a magician with the ball. They’ve got a running back, Raheim Sanders, who runs with a violence that would make Marshawn Lynch proud. And they’ve got a defense that’s finally starting to live up to its potential.

This game is a fascinating collision of narratives. It pits the high-flying offense of Ole Miss, led by the gunslinging Jaxson Dart, against the gritty, determined defense of South Carolina. It’s the wounded pride of a Rebel team that expected to be undefeated against the burgeoning confidence of a Gamecock squad that’s starting to believe.

The key to this game? It’s simple. Can South Carolina’s defense, which has shown flashes of brilliance but also moments of inconsistency, contain the explosive Ole Miss attack? Can they pressure Dart, force him into mistakes, and keep the Rebels’ receivers in check?

And on the other side of the ball, can Sellers and Sanders, both battling injuries, recapture the magic that led them to dominant performances earlier in the season? Can the offensive line, a work in progress all season, hold up against a ferocious Ole Miss defensive front?

This game is more than just an SEC matchup. It’s a referendum on both programs. For Ole Miss, it’s a chance to prove that they’re still a contender and that last week was an aberration. For South Carolina, it’s a chance to announce their arrival and show the world that they’re a force to be reckoned with.

The atmosphere at Williams-Brice Stadium will be electric. The Gamecock faithful, starved for success, will be ready to erupt. This game could go down to the wire, and a single play could decide it.

So buckle up, folks. This is going to be a wild ride. This is SEC football at its finest. This is Ole Miss vs. South Carolina, and it’s not to be missed.

Evening Game

Game: 10 Michigan @ Washington

TV: NBC, Peacock

Game Time: 7:30 PM Eastern/4:30 PM

The last time Michigan and Washington met, confetti rained down on a jubilant Wolverines squad celebrating a National Championship victory. But that was then, and this is now. This time, the Huskies have home-field advantage and a raucous Husky Stadium crowd hungry for revenge. This time, both teams are different, retooled, and wrestling with unique challenges.

Michigan, the reigning champs, are undefeated, but they’ve hardly looked invincible. Their offense, once a well-oiled machine, has sputtered at times, relying heavily on the legs of running back Kalel Mullings. Quarterback Alex Orji, thrust into the starting role after an injury to JJ McCarthy, has shown flashes of potential but remains an unknown quantity.

Washington, meanwhile, has been a puzzle. They’ve shown flashes of brilliance but also moments of self-destruction. Penalties, turnovers, and red-zone inefficiency have plagued them. But with quarterback Will Rogers at the helm, they have the firepower to put up points against any defense.

This game is a clash of styles. Michigan’s strength lies in its defense, a unit loaded with NFL talent. They’ll be looking to shut down Rogers and the Huskies’ passing attack, forcing them into uncomfortable situations. On the other hand, Washington will need to exploit Michigan’s one-dimensional offense, keeping them off balance and forcing Orji to beat them through the air.

The key matchup to watch? Michigan’s defensive line against Washington’s offensive line. If the Wolverines can get consistent pressure on Rogers, they’ll disrupt the Huskies’ rhythm and force turnovers. But if Washington can give Rogers time to throw, he has the weapons to pick apart Michigan’s secondary.

Beyond the X’s and O’s, this game is about more than just a win or a loss. It’s about pride, redemption, and the ever-shifting balance of power in college football. It’s a chance for Michigan to prove that last year’s championship was no fluke and that they’re still the team to beat. For Washington, it’s a chance to avenge that painful loss and show the world they belong on the national stage.

The atmosphere in Seattle will be electric. Husky Stadium, one of the loudest venues in college football, will be rocking. The 12th Man, Michigan’s loyal fan base, will be there in force, creating a sea of maize and blue. This game could go down to the wire, a game that a single play could decide.

So tune in, folks. This is a must-watch matchup. This is Michigan vs. Washington, a rematch with a twist. And it’s not to be missed.

Night Game

Game: 8 Miami @ Cal

TV: ESPN

Game Time: 10:30 PM Eastern/7:30 PM Pacific

With their explosive offense and swaggering confidence, the Miami Hurricanes are rolling into Berkeley like a hurricane hitting the California coast. Undefeated and ranked 8th in the nation, they’re looking to make a statement against a Cal team that’s more familiar with them than your average ACC foe.

This isn’t your typical cross-country clash. Cal head coach Justin Wilcox knows Mario Cristobal well from their Pac-12 battles, and quarterback Cam Ward has faced the Bears twice during his time at Washington State. There’s a history here, a familiarity that adds an extra layer of intrigue to this matchup.

But familiarity can only take you so far. Miami’s offense is a juggernaut, averaging nearly 50 points per game. Ward is a magician with the ball, spreading it to a talented group of receivers. They’re explosive, they’re efficient, and they’re a nightmare for opposing defenses.

Cal, on the other hand, is a team that thrives on defense and ball control. They’re not flashy, but they’re disciplined and opportunistic. They lead the nation in turnover margin, and they’ll be looking to force Ward into mistakes.

The key matchup to watch? Miami’s passing attack against Cal’s stingy secondary. The Hurricanes have the number one passing offense in the country, but the Bears have a knack for picking off passes. Something’s gotta give.

Another intriguing battle? Cal’s running back Jaydn Ott, a potential X-factor, against Miami’s run defense. Ott has been battling injuries, but if he’s healthy, he could give the Bears the spark they need to pull off the upset.

But let’s be honest, the odds are stacked against Cal. Miami is simply the more talented team. They have more firepower on offense, more playmakers on defense, and a swagger that’s hard to match.

Still, this is college football, where anything can happen. Cal has the home-field advantage, a coach who knows his opponent well, and a defense that can make life difficult for any quarterback. They might have a chance if they can force turnovers, control the clock, and keep Miami’s offense off the field.

But don’t bet on it. This feels like Miami’s game to lose. They’re the better team, on a roll, and looking to prove they’re a national championship contender. Expect a high-scoring affair, with the Hurricanes ultimately pulling away in the second half.

So grab your popcorn, folks. This is a game you won’t want to miss. It’s Miami vs. Cal, a clash of styles, a battle of wills, and a chance for the Hurricanes to make a statement on the national stage.

Full Game Schedule

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Navigating the Chaos: Week 2 of College Football’s Wild Ride

Coaches Hot Seat - Fans in the stands

There’s a reason we all tune in, why we obsess over every play, every decision made from the sidelines. College football isn’t just a game; it’s a microcosm of American culture. It’s where the values of grit, glory, and, occasionally, utter chaos are laid bare on the gridiron. And Week 2 of this season? It did not disappoint.

The Preston Report: Fan Sentiment from the Front Lines

We are introducing college football’s latest pulse check: The Preston Report. Named after Preston, our resident USC Trojan has made it his mission to gauge the emotional climate of rival fanbases in his workplace each week. Officially, it’s known as the USC Career Trojan Report, but around here, we call it The Preston Report. And let’s say it’s become an indispensable tool for measuring the temperature of college football fandom across the country.

Why? Because Preston’s observations aren’t just idle chatter—they’re a raw, unfiltered look at how each program’s faithful handle the season’s highs and lows. You get a boots-on-the-ground perspective that cuts through the noise of sports punditry and dives straight into the fans’ psyche.

Take, for instance, his read on Michigan: “The Michigan coworkers feel like their season is over and keep reminding everyone they won a National Championship last year.” It’s a stark picture of a fanbase clinging to the glory of past triumphs while staring down the barrel of a disappointing season. You can almost feel the mix of frustration and defiance in the air.

Then there’s the situation at Oklahoma. Preston’s OU colleague, once confident, now voices concerns about the new offensive coordinator—but with “very little eye contact.” It’s a small detail that speaks volumes. The lack of eye contact isn’t just discomfort; it’s a tell-tale sign of a fan grappling with uncertainty and perhaps a creeping sense of dread. The Sooners might be in for a rocky ride if this sentiment spreads.

And then we come to Miami. Preston says his Miami coworkers are as upbeat as he is, buoyed by the belief that “this will be a special year in College Football.” It’s a statement of hope, maybe even destiny. And in college football, where the line between optimism and delusion is razor-thin, that belief could be the fuel that powers the Hurricanes back into the conversation.

The Preston Report cuts through the static to bring us closer to the heartbeat of the game—the fans. It reminds us that college football isn’t just played on the field; it’s played in break rooms, on text threads, and in the small moments where faith is tested or affirmed.

The Florida Fiasco: Culture Wars and Tailgate Tensions

When trying to change a culture, you don’t just battle opposing teams—you battle history, expectations, and sometimes even your own fans. Florida’s head coach, Billy Napier, spent the offseason preaching transformation, promising a revamped Gators team with a winning mentality. Yet, the cracks are already showing.

Nick Saban’s recent comment—“the culture needs to change at Florida”—is a jab that lands hard, not because it’s controversial but because it rings true to many in the Gator Nation. And it’s not just about what’s happening on the field. Bizarre skirmishes have marked Florida’s start to the season: from debates over the right color shirts to wear in Week 1 to battles over parking logistics by Week 2.

One fan summed it perfectly on Twitter: “UF is a joke right now,” wrote @Ryanmcc_9, capturing the sentiment that Gainesville is a hotbed of confusion rather than cohesion. Even as some demand clarity, @alexregannnn wonders aloud, “What is happening at UF? Like legit behind the scenes at a high level?” That’s the question everyone wants answered as the Gators stumble through their season, searching for an identity that seems just out of reach.

Arkansas: Outgaining the Opponent and Still Losing—A Masterclass in Frustration

There are losses, and then there are Arkansas losses—gut-wrenching, inexplicable, and yet, almost predictable in their agony. Outgaining Oklahoma State by over 250 yards and still losing? That’s not just a defeat; it’s an art form. Arkansas is now 3-10 in one-score games over the past two seasons. That statistic is more than a number; it’s a legacy of close calls that always seem to go wrong.

As @JesseReSimonton points out, “The Razorbacks never stopped fighting, but Sam Pittman’s tenure with the Hogs may be cooked after this collapse.” It’s a telling sign of where things are headed. The numbers tell one story; the fans tell another. And right now, both point to a program that’s lost its way.

Baylor and the “Almost There” Offense

The defense is doing its job at Baylor, grinding and proving its mettle. But only one side of the ball can carry you so far in football. “This defense belongs; the offense needs to catch up,” lamented a Baylor fan, and the sentiment echoes around Waco. Coach Aranda has the defensive unit firing on all cylinders, but without the offense to back it up, it’s like having a shiny, powerful car stuck in first gear.

Cal and the Sweet Taste of Victory

If you’ve been around Berkeley for any time, you know that being a Cal fan often means being prepared for heartbreak. For years, snatching defeat from the jaws of victory has been a staple of Golden Bear football. But this time, the narrative flipped. Cal came out on top in a hard-fought game against Auburn, winning 21-14. It wasn’t just a win; it was a statement. And for a fanbase that has seen it all, this victory was something special.

“That’s the loudest group of 5000 I’ve ever heard … that was special,” Cal head coach Justin Wilcox said after the game, speaking to the passion and presence of the traveling Bears fans. The Twitterverse was buzzing with a mixture of disbelief and celebration. “Cal just got absolutely hosed,” one fan wrote, expecting another late-game collapse. But this time, Cal didn’t just hold on—they pushed back, proving that maybe, just maybe, this team has a different fate in store this season. Congratulations to the Golden Bears, who didn’t just survive but thrived.

Colorado and the Deion Sanders Show

And then there’s Colorado, where the spectacle is as much about the sidelines as the gameplay. Deion “Coach Prime” Sanders has brought more than just his star-studded sons to Boulder; he’s brought a circus, a spectacle, and perhaps a much-needed jolt to a once-proud program. But is it all smoke and mirrors? As @MattV12345678 bluntly puts it, “Coach Prime is nothing more than a private football coach for Travis Hunter, Shedeur Sanders, and Shilo Sanders masquerading as a head football coach… Change my mind.”

That’s the thing about narratives—they’re easily built but even more easily dismantled. Colorado’s story under Sanders is just beginning to unfold. Whether it becomes a tale of triumph or a cautionary tale of overhyped theatrics is a chapter still unwritten.

From the Twitterverse

Here’s a snapshot of what fans are saying across the country:

  • Indiana: “The fact they would play a team like that for the cheap win says everything.”
  • Florida:
    @UFLORIDAJOE: “Nick Saban just said ‘the culture needs to change at Florida.’ Billy Napier told us all offseason the culture has been changed and he has the best team he’s had since being at Florida. Yikes. This is bad bad.”
    @DKThompson: “I don’t know of an athletic department that is worse at PR and fan relations than UF right now.”
  • Arkansas:
    @bmoorecfb: “Out gaining your opponent 648 yards to 385 yards and losing the game is wild.”
    @Eddie_Rado: “Arkansas outgained Oklahoma State 648-385! Incredible.”
  • Cal:
    @Adam_Bradford14: “I also hereby propose that as long as Hugh Freeze is at Auburn they play Cal every year. The matchup shall be known as Hippies vs. Hookers.”
    @CalRivals: “That’s the loudest group of 5000 I’ve ever heard … that was special.”

The Only Certainty is Uncertainty

If there’s anything to take away from Week 2, the landscape of college football is as unpredictable as ever. Coaches, players, and fans alike are left to navigate a season that promises more twists, heartbreaks, and moments that will leave us all questioning, “What just happened?” Welcome to the show. It’s only getting started.

Week 3 Coaches Hot Seat Rankings Out Tomorrow Morning

Stay tuned – tomorrow is the day – Week 3 Hot Seat Rankings – make sure to stop by.

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