Everything about College Football Coaches
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The setup: three contest modes (Standard, Spread, and Confidence). Go perfect in any of them and you could walk away with up to $1 million. Miss perfection? There’s still $20,000 grand prizes for each mode.
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The Bottom Line
Jon Sumrall is a clear upgrade in process and upside over Billy Napier.
But whether he’s a true results upgrade in the SEC will hinge almost entirely on staff hires and whether he can translate his Group of Five discipline-and-physicality pitch into a cleaner, more explosive product than Napier ever managed in Gainesville. On résumé and trajectory, you can justify calling this a good, even ambitious, hire for Florida. But it lands with risk and fan skepticism because it looks, on the surface, like “Napier 2.0” from another G5 power.
Let’s dig into the data.
The surface-level comparison writes itself: Florida just fired a coach who went 22-23 over four years after a dominant G5 run, and replaced him with a coach who went 43-11 over four years during a dominant G5 run. But dig one layer deeper and meaningful distinctions emerge.
Sumrall has already won three conference championships – two Sun Belt titles at Troy and an American Athletic Conference title at Tulane – with Tulane appearing in the AAC title game again in 2025. He’s made a conference championship game in every season as a head coach. Napier never won a conference title at Florida and finished 12-16 in SEC play, with one 8-5 season sandwiched between losing years and no serious division contention.
On raw head-coaching record, championship appearances, and consistency, Sumrall’s four-year run is substantially stronger than Napier’s four years in Gainesville – and matches or exceeds what Napier did at Louisiana before he jumped to the SEC.
Simple Rating System (SRS) measures how many points better or worse a team is than average on a neutral field. Strength of Schedule (SOS) shows whether a team faced above-average or below-average competition. Together, they tell a clearer story than wins and losses alone.
What the Numbers Mean
Sumrall’s teams average an SRS of +7.56, while their SOS is -1.15. Translation: his programs consistently performed about a touchdown better than an average FBS team on a neutral field while playing slightly below-average schedules.
His best season by the metric was 2023 Troy at +10.29 SRS, with top-25-quality production on a clearly G5 schedule. His 2025 Tulane squad posted a +7.79 SRS against a +0.25 SOS, showing he can maintain strong efficiency even as the competition creeps toward truly average.
The Troy vs. Tulane split is telling. Troy under Sumrall averaged +8.36 SRS against a soft -1.82 SOS, the profile of a bully in a weak conference. Tulane under Sumrall averaged +6.76 SRS against a -0.48 SOS, reflecting a tougher AAC slate. Even there, 2025’s 11-2 with positive SOS suggests a team that would profile like a mid-tier SEC bowl squad.
The bottom line: Sumrall’s SRS/SOS profile says “very good G5 operator beating mostly average-or-worse schedules by real margins.” It’s a stronger and more consistent efficiency résumé than what Florida just fired. But nothing in that profile proves he can hit the +15 SRS territory you need to chase titles against an SEC-caliber schedule.
Film analysis by Max Browne, ESPN analyst and former USC/Pitt quarterback, who reviewed every Tulane sack, turnover, and touchdown pass from this season. [LINK]
Jon Sumrall played linebacker at Kentucky and has never held an offensive coaching position. His stops at San Diego, Tulane (as an assistant), Troy, Ole Miss, and Kentucky were all on defense. This matters because it defines his program’s DNA.
The Defensive Philosophy
Reviewing every sack and turnover from Tulane’s 2025 season reveals a consistent philosophy: trust your front four, don’t get cute.
Sumrall’s defenses aren’t exotic pressure teams. They rely on the defensive line to generate a pass rush through twist-and-stunt packages rather than bringing extra rushers from the secondary. When they do blitz, it’s typically a single linebacker from depth – rarely a safety or corner, and rarely multiple backers at once.
The results speak for themselves:
For Florida fans, there’s an upside and a downside to this approach. The upside: it’s not gimmicky or scheme-dependent—it’s about fundamentals and trusting your players to win their matchups. The downside: opposing quarterbacks won’t face exotic pressure packages that require extensive preparation. This is old-school, come-right-at-you defense.
The Offensive Identity
Sumrall’s offensive coordinator for the past four years has been Joe Craddock, who became the youngest OC in college football when SMU hired him in 2014 and later the youngest OC in the SEC at Arkansas. The Craddock-Sumrall partnership has produced a distinctive offensive identity.
Reviewing every touchdown pass from Darian Mensah (2024) and Jake Retzlaff (2025) reveals clear themes. This offense leans pro-style: under center, heavy play-action, attacking vertically with deep overs and posts. It’s a different family tree than Lane Kiffin’s Art Briles spread or Ben Arbuckle’s QB-run-heavy RPO system.
The signature concepts:
Notably, this system shares DNA with what DJ Lagway ran at Florida last year, pro-style play-action with vertical concepts. That’s a potential recruiting pitch: “We’re not asking you to learn something completely different.”
There’s nothing in this offensive film that won’t translate to the SEC. But it requires talent, particularly speed on the perimeter and a quarterback who can make deep throws off play-action. Florida has historically recruited that speed. Whether Sumrall retains the quarterback to run it is another question.
Jon Sumrall represents a meaningful résumé upgrade over Billy Napier with a higher win percentage, more championships, better late-season performance, and demonstrated ability to flip multiple programs quickly.
But this is not a “home-run SEC proven commodity” hire. It’s a higher-upside reroll of the identical dice with a coach whose winning profile and multi-school turnarounds give Florida more justification than they had with Napier in 2021.
The defensive identity is sound and translatable. The offensive philosophy fits what Florida has run. The staff hires, particularly whether Craddock comes along or whether Florida pursues a bigger name at OC, will determine the ceiling. (Sumrall has hired Buster Faulkner, currently the offensive coordinator at Georgia Tech, as the Gators’ new offensive coordinator. This move brings an experienced play-caller to run an explosive offense for quarterback DJ Lagway. Faulkner previously coached quarterbacks at Georgia and has a strong background in offensive schemes.)
Our assessment: Good but risky hire. Sumrall is better positioned to stabilize Florida above the 6-8 win purgatory Napier lived in. Whether he can push into consistent 9-10 win territory against SEC competition remains an open question, one that won’t be answered until we see how the model translates to Power-conference resources, expectations, and schedule strength.
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The Short Answer: No.
Tulane just went from one of the best Group of Five coaching situations in America to hiring a coach who was fired mid-season after going 14-30 at Southern Miss.
Let that sink in.
Will Hall’s FBS head coaching record is brutal:
Southern Miss (2021-2024)
The only bright spot? A 7-6 season in 2022 that included a LendingTree Bowl win. Everything else was a disaster. Hall was fired seven games into 2024 after a 1-6 start.
Now compare that to Jon Sumrall’s career:
Sumrall Career Record: 32-10 (.762)
The drop-off isn’t subtle. It’s a cliff.
Here’s what Tulane is selling:
Hall knows the building. He was the offensive coordinator under Willie Fritz in 2019 when Tulane set multiple school records. He’s back on staff as pass-game coordinator. He won’t bolt after one good season. He’ll keep the system running.
There’s some logic here.
Back-to-back coaching departures (Fritz to Georgia Tech, now Sumrall to Florida) have created genuine instability. An internal hire preserves scheme, culture, and recruiting relationships during a CFP run. Hall genuinely does have Tulane ties and likely is less likely to leave than a hot external name.
But here’s the problem:
Being loyal and being good aren’t the same thing.
Hall’s 2019 Tulane offense was legitimately excellent, top-25 nationally in rushing and total offense, school records falling left and right. He can clearly call plays and develop quarterbacks at the coordinator level.
But FBS head coaching is a different job entirely.
At Southern Miss, Hall couldn’t:
The one outlier season (7-6) looks more like a blip than proof of concept. The year before was 3-9. The year after was 3-9. Then 1-6 before the firing.
This isn’t a case where analytics nerds are upset, but the fanbase is excited.
The Tulane fanbase is angry.
The dominant reaction across social media, message boards, and podcasts is “deflated and confused.” National observers are calling it “the worst hire of the cycle.” Fans are openly questioning whether AD David Harris made a cheap, small-time decision at the exact moment Tulane finally had leverage.
The optics are terrible:
That’s not how you capitalize on momentum.
Here’s how this breaks down for Coaches Hot Seat purposes:
| Category | Grade | Explanation |
|---|---|---|
| Résumé | D | 14-30 at Southern Miss, fired mid-season. The FBS head coaching track record is disqualifying. |
| Fit | B+ | Knows Tulane, knows the system, knows the city. Won’t leave. The continuity case is coherent. |
| Process | C | Internal hire looks budget-conscious, not ambitious. Fanbase is booing on Day 1. |
| Ceiling | TBD | Has never proven he can sustain success at FBS level. Coordinator success doesn’t guarantee HC success. |
Overall: C-
Tulane made a continuity bet that looks dramatically misaligned with where the program actually is.
This is a school that just made the College Football Playoff. That’s a program with real leverage—the ability to attract a rising coordinator from a Power Four school, a hot Group of Five name, someone with actual FBS head coaching wins.
Instead, they promoted a coach with a .318 FBS head-coaching record who was literally unemployed two months ago after Southern Miss fired him.
The fit case is coherent. The résumé case is mind-boggling.
Tulane’s AD spent a considerable chunk of goodwill to hire a coach his own fans are booing on Day 1. That’s not how you build on historic success. That’s how you risk giving it all back.
Starting Pressure Level: HIGH
He inherits a CFP roster but enters with:
Year 1 needs to be 8+ wins minimum to quiet the noise. Anything less, and the “we told you so” chorus will be deafening.
The margin for error here is essentially zero.
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Ryan Silverfield is a high-floor stabilizer hire for Arkansas.
He’ll almost certainly get the Razorbacks back to bowl eligibility and competent, week-in/week-out SEC football. His Memphis track record – 50-25, bowl games every year, back-to-back double-digit-win seasons – shows he knows how to build and maintain a program.
But nothing in his profile screams “SEC title contender.” And the data suggests Arkansas just hired a coach whose ceiling is 7-8 wins in a league where that gets you fired.
Silverfield’s career record looks solid on the surface. But the splits tell a different story.
Silverfield at Memphis (Career)
The bowl record is perfect. The late-season numbers are strong. But look at the bottom row: 2-4 against ranked teams. That’s a .333 win rate when games matter most.
This is where the data gets uncomfortable. Every single season at Memphis, Silverfield coached against a negative strength of schedule. Every season at Arkansas – even in Pittman’s worst years – featured a positive.
Strength of Schedule Comparison
That’s an 8-10 point swing in schedule difficulty. Silverfield has never navigated a positive strength of schedule. Now he walks into the SEC West, where Georgia, LSU, Tennessee, Texas, and Texas A&M are all on the schedule.
He won .677 against weak competition. What happens when every week is a test?
Here’s the detail that haunts this hire: Silverfield never won an AAC Championship.
Mike Norvell won one before leaving for Florida State. Silverfield inherited a stable program with solid G5 resources and continuity, and never broke through. His best teams (2023, 2024) finished 6-2 in conference play both years. Good. Not great. Never the best.
That hints at a coach who reliably gets you to “good and organized” but hasn’t shown evidence of consistently punching above his resource level. In the AAC, that meant no title. In the SEC, it likely means a ceiling of 7-8 wins.
Arkansas fans didn’t just express disappointment. They protested.
Razorback fans organized an on-campus protest at the Jones Center the day the hire became public—a rarity even by SEC drama standards. Social media reaction was brutal: “Such a 6-7 hire” became the instant meme. National observers piled on. Rival fanbases mocked the move.
The core complaints:
Compare this to James Franklin at Virginia Tech: protests = zero, fan sentiment = cautiously optimistic, narrative = “boss move.” Silverfield walks into Fayetteville with the shortest leash of any new hire in this cycle.
Want to know what Memphis fans think? They’re celebrating.
Local Memphis media describe Tiger fans as “relieved” Silverfield left on his own rather than forcing an awkward firing decision. Message board comparisons to Josh Pastner – likable, professional, solid floor, limited ceiling – capture the mood perfectly.
The Memphis framing: “Good man, good coach, but not the guy to take us to the next level.” When your own fanbase is thanking you for leaving, that’s a data point.
Silverfield’s realistic outcome at Arkansas:
That makes him a defensible hire for an AD who wanted stability and professionalism after the Pittman disaster. But it also explains why the reception has been so harsh, and why this move will be judged harshly if the on-field turnaround isn’t obvious by Year 2.
High floor. Low ceiling. Short leash.
Arkansas traded the uncertainty of another developmental hire for a known quantity. The problem is, everyone knows what that quantity is, and the SEC doesn’t grade on a curve.
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The 2025 regular season is complete.
The coaching carousel is not.
These rankings reflect pressure, not predictions. We don’t forecast firings. We track the gap between expectations and results – the weight of buyouts, the patience of administrators, the brutal math of wins and losses in a sport that changes by the hour.
This list is a work in progress.
Openings remain unfilled. Coordinators are fielding calls. NFL franchises are circling college sidelines. By the time you read this, names may have moved to new programs, new positions, or out of the profession entirely.
What won’t change:
The decisions these coaches made in 2025. The results those decisions produced. And the pressure that follows them into the off-season.
Ten coaches.
Ten programs, stuck between the cost of change and the cost of staying the same.
Two national championship rings at Georgia. 4-20 at Georgia State.
Inherited a program that went 7-6 with a bowl win in 2023 under Shawn Elliott.
The Hue Jackson hire told the story.
McGee’s Georgia State tenure has never held an opponent under 21 points.
AD Charlie Cobb hasn’t addressed McGee’s future publicly.
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The Verdict
James Franklin is a high-floor, polarizingly safe hire for Virginia Tech.
He dramatically raises the talent and competency baseline in Blacksburg. His recruiting prowess will immediately transform VT’s roster trajectory. And his track record of building programs (Vanderbilt, Penn State) removes the developmental gamble that tanked the Pry era.
But his historical ceiling in big games makes it unlikely he turns VT into a true national title contender.
Franklin’s career record speaks for itself—and it stacks up favorably against Virginia Tech’s coaching legacy.
Franklin vs Virginia Tech Coaching Legends
Franklin’s .687 career win percentage actually exceeds Frank Beamer’s legendary .667 mark at Virginia Tech. His bowl record (4-2) significantly outpaces Beamer’s 16-19 postseason ledger.
Franklin wins games. But can he win the right games?
At Penn State, Franklin went 4-21 against AP Top-10 opponents. That’s the number that haunted him in Happy Valley—and the number that will follow him to Blacksburg. When games mattered most, when a breakthrough win would have changed the program’s trajectory, Franklin came up short.
Franklin vs. Elite Coaches (Career Records)
The gap is stark. Saban won 81% of his games against ranked opponents. Meyer won 84%. Franklin? He’s .500 against ranked teams—and significantly worse against Top-10 competition specifically.
This is where Franklin immediately changes everything.
In roughly two weeks on the job, Franklin dragged Virginia Tech’s 2026 class from around No. 120-125 nationally into the low-20s. He flipped 10+ former Penn State commits, pulling heavily from Pennsylvania, New Jersey, and the Mid-Atlantic. The current class includes at least six ESPN Top 300 prospects.
This isn’t incremental improvement. This is a complete geographic and talent-level reorientation.
Franklin has explicitly said VT will “always” prioritize offensive and defensive line recruiting. Given VT just produced a top-25 class with almost no runway, expect Hokies classes to feature more blue-chip linemen than they’ve signed in years.
Virginia Tech made this move after an 0-3 start in 2025, including a blowout loss to Old Dominion and a defensive collapse under a defensive-minded coach.
Let’s be clear about where the Hokies have been since Beamer left:
Franklin’s win rate, ranked finishes, and recruiting baselines are all significantly above what VT has produced since 2011. The expected value jump from Pry to Franklin is massive—even if the ceiling remains debated.
Here’s the key insight that makes this hire make sense:
The ACC path is significantly easier than the Big Ten gauntlet Franklin just left.
In the Big Ten, Franklin had to navigate Ohio State, Michigan, Oregon, and Washington every year. His historical ceiling there translated to “playoff fringe but not elite.” But in the ACC? That same performance profile projects to frequent 9-10-win seasons, regular conference title contention, and occasional playoff appearances in the expanded field.
For a program that hasn’t lived in that neighborhood for a decade, that represents a clear upgrade.
Virginia Tech’s realistic near-term needs are:
Franklin’s history suggests he is very likely to deliver that tier and stabilize the brand—even if he falls short of making VT a playoff mainstay.
VT is effectively trading the uncertainty (and downside) of another developmental hire for a highly predictable product: strong floor, defined ceiling, and an immediate recruiting jolt that reestablishes the Hokies as a serious operation in the region.
Is that a “good hire”?
For what Virginia Tech needs right now? Yes. Absolutely.
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The carousel never stops spinning.
We’re tracking 21 coaching changes this cycle — 13 with new coaches already named, 8 still waiting on their guy. What follows are our preliminary grades across three categories: Hire Quality, Process, and Fan/Media Sentiment.
These aren’t final verdicts.
They’re initial reactions. First impressions. The kind of grades that will look either brilliant or idiotic in three years when we revisit them.
We’ll do deep dives on each hire individually in the coming weeks. But for now, here’s where every job stands — from the home runs to the dumpster fires.
These programs swung big and connected.
The Hokies didn’t just make a hire. They made a statement.
Landing James Franklin from Penn State signals that Virginia Tech is done being a sleeping giant. The staff and recruiting implications will ripple through the ACC for years. The only question now is whether VT finally acts like the resource program it’s always claimed to be.
How his Penn State staff/recruits follow, what this does to the ACC power structure, and whether VT is finally acting like a “resource program” again.
The Beavers landed their guy without a nationwide circus.
JaMarcus Shephard comes from Alabama’s staff into the most uncertain moment in Oregon State history. Post-realignment survival depends on portal management and identity preservation. A first-time head coach navigating conference limbo while maintaining Trent Bray’s defensive DNA is a tall order — but OSU handled this search like a program that knows exactly who it is.
Post-realignment survival, recruiting without a stable league home, and whether a first-time HC can maintain Bray’s defensive identity.
The hire is an A. The process was a circus.
Lane Kiffin to LSU was the worst-kept secret in college football, which made the public courtship even messier. But the end result? A program with unlimited resources landing one of the sport’s best offensive minds and most ruthless recruiters. The marriage either produces championships or a spectacular implosion. There is no middle ground in Baton Rouge.
Ole Miss fallout, staff poaching wars, and if LSU’s booster culture amplifies or burns out Kiffin’s volatility in a hurry.
The Mountain West needed a credible name. CSU delivered.
Jim Mora brings NFL pedigree, P4 experience, and a recruiting network that Jay Norvell never fully activated. The question is whether this is a “last tour” victory lap or a legitimate rebuild. Either way, CSU positioned itself to capitalize on a weakened conference landscape.
Can Mora still grind on the trail, how CSU positions itself vs. a weakened MWC, and whether this is a “last tour” or a true rebuild.
Mark Stoops cast a long shadow. Will Stein steps into it confidently.
The offensive identity pivot is exactly what Kentucky needed after years of defensive-first football. Stein’s explosiveness ceiling could push the Wildcats from the 7-win band into genuine SEC East contention. The NIL landscape remains a challenge, but this hire signals ambition.
Stoops’ shadow, offensive identity pivot, NIL vs. league peers, and whether Stein can keep Kentucky in the 7–9 win band with a higher explosiveness ceiling.
Auburn got its tempo guy, Alex Golesh, from South Florida.
Golesh’s USF offense translated well enough to earn him a shot at the SEC’s toughest division. The patience level in Auburn is… historically nonexistent. But the process was clean, the hire was decisive, and line-of-scrimmage recruiting will determine whether this becomes a home run or a cautionary tale.
Translation of his USF tempo offense to the SEC West equivalent, patience level in Auburn, and how he recruits the lines of scrimmage.
Not flashy. Not embarrassing. Just… fine.
The Cardinal went internal and pragmatic.
Tavita Pritchard inherits Andrew Luck’s GM involvement and Stanford’s perpetual NIL/admissions constraints. The bet is that an NFL-style QB room can overcome portal friction in an ACC that doesn’t care about your academic reputation. It’s a reasonable swing given the circumstances.
Andrew Luck’s GM role, Stanford’s NIL constraints, and whether an NFL-style QB room can overcome admissions/portal friction in the ACC.
This is either the next Kalen DeBoer or bargain shopping.
Bob Chesney’s jump from FCS to the Big Ten grind is significant. Here’s the strange part: the process was actually solid — because Martin Jarmond wasn’t running it. And that tells you everything about the real red flags at this job. An ineffective, egomaniacal athletic director. A disconnected, tone-deaf chancellor. A bean counter who only understands counting beans. Chesney’s system might translate just fine. Whether anyone can succeed under this administration is the bigger question.
The massive jump from FCS to the Big Ten grind, and whether anyone can succeed under an ineffective AD, a tone-deaf chancellor, and an administration that only understands counting beans.
Life after Gundy is officially here.
Eric Morris keeps the Air Raid DNA without the 20-year cultural infrastructure. The question is whether Oklahoma State wants to chase Big 12 titles or just stability. This hire suggests stability. That’s not necessarily wrong — but it’s not inspiring either.
Life after Gundy’s long tenure, keeping the Air Raid DNA without the old culture, and whether OSU wants to chase Big 12 titles or just stability.
Continuity hire. Full stop.
Pete Golding’s job is to keep the portal from hemorrhaging and maintain defensive credibility while the offense finds a new identity post-Kiffin. Whether he can be more than a recruiter/DC remains the central question. The Rebels are betting on stability over splash.
Defensive continuity vs. offensive identity change, portal retention after Kiffin, and whether Golding can be more than a recruiter/DC.
The Spartans hired a culture reset.
After back-to-back scandals, Pat Fitzgerald’s “Northwestern-style overachiever” ceiling might be exactly what East Lansing needs. The long-term recruiting upside against Ohio State and Michigan is… limited. But the hire makes sense for a program that desperately needed adults in the room.
Cultural cleanup after back-to-back scandals, ceiling of “Northwestern-style overachiever” in the new Big Ten, and long-term recruiting upside vs. Ohio State/Michigan.
These aren’t going well.
The process was fine. The reaction was not.
Sumrall arrives with Steve Spurrier’s public blessing and a mandate to fix Billy Napier’s in-game disasters. But there’s a red flag worth noting: Sumrall’s Tulane teams were consistently among the most penalized in the country — the kind of undisciplined football that suggests coaching issues, not just player mistakes. Florida fans already wanted a bigger name. The D in sentiment reflects a fan base that feels the program settled.
Spurrier publicly blessing the hire, fixing Napier’s in-game messes, and whether Sumrall can weaponize UF’s NIL/portal machine fast enough in the SEC arms race.
This is a disaster.
The fan backlash isn’t simmering — it’s boiling over into organized protests. Ryan Silverfield’s task is nearly impossible: win quickly in a 16-team SEC with a hostile home base from Day 1. The AD’s survival odds are now directly tied to Silverfield’s record. D across the board, and that might be generous.
Fan backlash/protests, AD survival odds, and if Silverfield can win quickly enough in the new 16-team SEC to quiet a hostile base.
No other way to describe these.
James Franklin is gone. The portal is circling. And Penn State is playing leverage games with agents while their roster evaporates in real time. At some point, “waiting for the right guy” becomes “watching your program collapse.” That point may have already passed.
Whether PSU finally swings for a top-5 coach, how Sexton’s leverage games play out, and how long they can sit in limbo without bleeding portal talent.
The Bill Clark era feels like ancient history now.
Former coach Trent Dilfer gets plenty of blame, but AD Mark Ingram deserves more. Together they torched everything Clark built — the goodwill, the culture, the upward trajectory. All of it gone. Now the job sits open and nobody wants it. This isn’t a “hidden gem” search. It’s a punchline. Stadium and resources exist on paper, but the dysfunction has made this one of the least attractive openings in the country.
How attractive the job really is post-Dilfer, stadium/resources vs. recent chaos, and whether UAB leans into offense again or buys a culture guy.
These jobs remain open. Grades pending.
California (INC / B / B) — Cal’s identity crisis continues. Do they want academics or football? The ACC move demands an answer.
UConn (INC / C+ / C) — Independence is lonely. The next hire determines whether UConn commits to regional recruiting or another failed “national” vision.
North Texas (INC / C / C) — Serial resets in Denton. UNT needs to pick an offensive identity and stick with it.
Coastal Carolina (INC / B– / B–) — The post-Chadwell slump continues. Another spread-option innovator, or something different?
South Florida (INC / B / B) — Golesh left equity in the roster. USF has a window before FSU/UF/Miami clean up their messes.
Memphis (INC / B / B) — The Tigers launch coaches. The question is whether they want another launchpad guy or someone who stays.
Thirteen hires graded. Eight more coming.
The best hire so far? Virginia Tech landing James Franklin changes the ACC. The worst situation? Arkansas — and it’s not close.
We’ll revisit these grades in-season. Some will age like wine. Others will age like milk.
The carousel keeps spinning.
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The clock just hit midnight on college football’s struggling coaches.
No more “next year” promises. No more “we’re close” platitudes. Week 12 stripped away the illusions and exposed the reality: some programs are moving forward, and others are circling the drain.
Jonathan Smith is 0-7 in Big Ten play. Shane Beamer blew a 27-point halftime lead in the most catastrophic collapse of the season. Mike Norvell’s Florida State is 2-12 in ACC games over two years. Bill Belichick is 0-5 against Power Four opponents in his first college season.
Athletic directors are done selling hope to angry donors. Boosters are done writing checks for mediocrity. The portal opens in three weeks, and players are already making decisions about their futures.
This is where coaching careers get defined—or destroyed.
Here are the ten coaches who entered Week 12 with everything to prove and nothing left to hide behind.
Jonathan Smith’s seat isn’t just hot anymore. It’s molten.
Michigan State lost to Penn State 28-10 at home Saturday, marking their seventh straight defeat and officially eliminating the Spartans from bowl eligibility. That’s four consecutive seasons without a bowl game and an 0-7 Big Ten record that has Smith at 8-12 overall since arriving from Oregon State.
The numbers: Michigan State owes Smith approximately $32-33 million if they fire him now. That’s one of the most expensive buyouts in the Big Ten. However, the AD and university president, both hired after Smith arrived, have no strong ties to him and are facing mounting pressure to act.
National media outlets universally place Smith at the top of coaching hot seat lists. Fan sentiment has turned nearly uniform in calling for a change. Replacement candidate discussions are already widespread.
Smith will almost certainly coach Michigan State’s final two games, but barring a miracle turnaround, he’s coaching for his next job, not this one.
Mike Locksley just got saved by the very problem that’s destroying college football programs: money.
Maryland announced Sunday that Locksley will return for 2026 despite a six-game losing streak that dropped the Terrapins from 4-0 to 4-6. It’s the second straight season with only one Big Ten win and the 11th consecutive losing season in conference play. Locksley is now 37-47 overall at Maryland and 17-46 in Big Ten games since 2019.
Athletic Director Jim Smith made the decision based on financial reality. Maryland’s athletic department has lost $32.7 million over the past five years. Locksley’s buyout would be $13.4 million. Smith told ESPN the school is “better off pouring already-spent money into building the roster than into bringing in a new coaching staff.”
Translation: We can’t afford to fire him.
The announcement came after “Fire Locksley” chants broke out in the student section during the Indiana game. Locksley’s pressure doesn’t disappear just because he’s surviving 2025. He’s coaching on borrowed time in 2026, and everyone knows it.
Shane Beamer just orchestrated the most spectacular coaching collapse of the 2025 season.
Saturday at Texas A&M, South Carolina led 30-3 at halftime. Then came the second half. Texas A&M scored 28 unanswered points. South Carolina was shut out and managed just 76 total yards after halftime. Final score: 31-30, Aggies. It was the largest comeback in Texas A&M program history.
ESPN’s Paul Finebaum summed it up perfectly: “Shane Beamer right now just looks like a loser.”
South Carolina is now 3-7 and guaranteed a losing season. They’ve lost five straight SEC games and will miss a bowl game for the first time under Beamer. “Fire Beamer” chants have replaced the cheers.
Here’s the financial nightmare: South Carolina extended Beamer through 2030 less than a year ago. His buyout is approximately $27.9 million. Athletic Director Jeremiah Donati is now stuck with one of college football’s most expensive mistakes.
This type of historic collapse changes everything. It’s not just that they lost. It’s HOW they lost.
Mike Norvell just won a game and it doesn’t matter.
Florida State beat Virginia Tech 34-14 Saturday to improve to 5-5, but the win came against a 3-7 Hokies team that’s almost as bad as the Seminoles. Since being controversially left out of the 2023 College Football Playoff at 13-0, Florida State is 7-15 overall and 2-12 in ACC play.
Athletic Director Michael Alford announced in October that Norvell would remain through the end of 2025, but promised a “comprehensive assessment” after the season. Translation: Norvell is coaching his final games at Florida State.
Here’s why the delay: Money. Norvell’s buyout is approximately $53.3 million after this season. It’s the second-largest buyout in college football history.
Norvell has tried to project confidence, delivering a six-minute “championship expectation” rant recently. The problem is the results. FSU is winless on the road this season and hasn’t won a road game since November 2023.
Derek Mason took a sabbatical from coaching after the 2022 season to rest, reflect, and spend time with family.
He should have stayed on sabbatical.
Mason is in his second season at Middle Tennessee and the program has regressed under his leadership. The Blue Raiders went 3-9 in his first year, and they’re currently 2-8 in 2025. That’s 5-17 overall and 3-11 in conference play across two seasons.
Mason replaced Rick Stockstill, who went 113-111 over 18 seasons with 10 bowl appearances. Mason hasn’t come close to matching that standard. Middle Tennessee’s two wins this season came against FCS opponents. Every FBS opponent has beaten them, often badly.
The defense, which should be Mason’s calling card, ranks among the worst in all of college football. Mason’s overall head coaching record is now 30-64 across eight years. At some point, MTSU has to ask if this experiment is worth continuing.
Dave Aranda isn’t getting fired this season, but not for the reasons you’d hope.
After Saturday’s 55-28 home humiliation against Utah, Aranda sits at 5-5 overall and desperately needs one win in the final two games to make a bowl. His defense ranks second-worst in the Big 12 in both scoring and rush defense. For a defensive specialist hired specifically for his defensive expertise, that’s a damning indictment.
Here’s the number that matters most: 21-25. That’s Aranda’s record at Baylor with his own recruits, excluding the COVID season and the 2021 championship season built on Matt Rhule’s inherited roster.
However, Aranda is still employed because athletic director Mack Rhoades took a leave of absence November 12 amid an ongoing investigation. Interim ADs don’t make coaching changes of this magnitude.
It’s not merit. It’s institutional paralysis.
Luke Fickell went from College Football Playoff coach to coaching for his job in three years.
After leading Cincinnati to the CFP in 2021, Fickell was hired by Wisconsin with enormous expectations. Instead, Wisconsin has regressed. Fickell is now 16-19 overall at Wisconsin and 9-15 in Big Ten play. His teams have produced losing records in two of three full seasons.
The Badgers went scoreless in back-to-back games against Iowa and Ohio State earlier this season, marking the first time that has happened since 1977. Wisconsin hasn’t won a Big Ten home game in over a calendar year.
Here’s the ironic twist: Fickell just received a contract extension through 2032 and a public vote of confidence from AD Chris McIntosh. His buyout is estimated to be around $27.5 million.
Wisconsin is on track for its second straight losing season after 22 consecutive bowl appearances. Fickell gets 2026 to prove he can turn it around, but the pressure will be immense from Day One.
The greatest football coach in history is learning that college football is a different game.
Bill Belichick, winner of six Super Bowls with the Patriots, arrived at North Carolina with enormous fanfare. Instead, he’s 4-6 overall and 0-5 against Power Four opponents. UNC’s losses weren’t just defeats. They were blowouts that exposed fundamental problems with Belichick’s transition to college football.
“It’s an unstructured mess,” a source told WRAL News in October. Reports emerged that Belichick hadn’t “had a conversation with most of the guys on defense.” The Tar Heels rank last in the ACC in total offense and scoring.
At 72 years old, in his first college job ever, Belichick is discovering that recruiting 18-year-olds, managing NIL, and coaching the portal era requires skills he never needed in the NFL.
UNC’s administration sold fans on Belichick, leading them to the playoffs. Instead, they’re fighting for bowl eligibility and dealing with reports of organizational chaos.
Justin Wilcox sits at 6-4 overall and 3-3 in ACC play, a respectable first season navigating conference realignment.
But the pressure has never been higher.
Fan sentiment has turned decisively against Wilcox, with widespread calls for his dismissal dominating the Cal community. This isn’t about the record. It’s about nine years of incremental progress that never accumulates into sustained success.
Then there’s Ron Rivera. Cal’s new General Manager has given Wilcox conditional support, stating that “another victory or two” in the final stretch will be key in determining his future. That’s not a vote of confidence. That’s measured pressure from above.
When your GM says your fate depends on winning one or two games in a 6-4 season, you’re coaching under scrutiny from fans who’ve already moved on and leadership that’s watching closely.
Mark Stoops just beat Tennessee Tech 42-10 Saturday, extending Kentucky’s winning streak to four games.
And his pressure level hasn’t budged an inch.
The win over an FCS opponent was expected, and while Stoops praised “this team’s attitude and effort,” beating Tennessee Tech doesn’t change the fundamental calculus around his job security. Fan sentiment remains sharply divided.
What protects Stoops isn’t the four-game winning streak. It’s the $40.5 million buyout that must be paid in full within 60 days if he’s fired. After critical wins at Auburn and over Florida, AD Mitch Barnhart voiced full support, saying Kentucky is “taking steps” back up the mountain.
Kentucky sits one win away from bowl eligibility with two games remaining. The pressure at #10 reflects this: the four-game streak has eased the immediate crisis, but beating an FCS team doesn’t resolve long-term doubts.
The top 10 are racing against the clock.
But coaching pressure doesn’t stop at #10. A $40.5 million buyout protects Mark Stoops (#10) despite 13 years of middling results. Justin Wilcox (#9) is 6-4 but facing conditional support from his GM. Luke Fickell (#7) just got extended through 2032 despite losing 9 of his last 14 games.
Every FBS coach is ranked based on actual pressure, not speculation about who might be fired.
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Week 11 exposed the pretenders. Week 12 eliminates them. This is the part of the season where athletic directors stop debating and start deciding. Where donor patience either holds or shatters entirely. Where recruits make final judgments about which programs are ascending and which are circling the drain. The “we’re close to turning the corner” narrative that might have worked in October doesn’t survive November. By Week 12, you either have tangible proof of progress or you’re staring at an offseason coaching search. Buyout conversations move from theoretical to tactical. Board meetings shift from “let’s give him more time” to “what’s our exit strategy?” Week 12 separates the coaches who survive the season from those who won’t make it to December. And for these ten coaches? The clock is ticking louder than ever.
Jonathan Smith remains at #1, and the situation in East Lansing has moved from crisis to terminal. The $33M+ buyout that once seemed prohibitive is now just a number that major donors are actively working to fund. His 8-13 record isn’t just bad, it’s a complete program collapse that’s destroying Michigan State’s identity. New AD J Batt inherited this disaster and faces mounting pressure to act. Recruiting has gone from struggling to nonexistent, with elite prospects avoiding East Lansing entirely. The fan base has moved past anger into total apathy, which is the real death sentence. The question isn’t whether Smith gets fired, it’s when.
Mike Locksley holds at #2, but that strong 2025 recruiting class that was his lifeline is starting to crack. Commits are taking visits elsewhere, and the locker room remains completely fractured. His 37-46 overall record tells the story of six years without real progress in the Big Ten. Fourth quarter collapses continue, and fans have stopped showing up expecting anything different. Donor support has evaporated completely, with major boosters now openly discussing replacement options. The administration’s hesitation is about the competitive coaching market, not confidence in Locksley. One more collapse and it’s over.
Mike Norvell stays at #3, still clinging to the thin margin of player support that’s kept him employed. The $55M+ buyout remains the primary obstacle, but FSU is already planning for 2026 when it becomes more manageable. His 37-32 record would be fine elsewhere, but FSU expects championships, not mediocrity. Fan skepticism continues to grow as the season progresses. That Wake Forest win bought time, but not much. Another embarrassing loss puts him right back at #1.
Derek Mason enters the Top 10 at #4 with a catastrophic 4-17 record over two seasons. This is complete program collapse, not a rebuilding project. His SEC pedigree from Vanderbilt hasn’t translated, and the offense ranks near the bottom nationally. Donor support is gone, attendance at Floyd Stadium is embarrassing, and recruiting is nonexistent. Elite Conference USA prospects are choosing other programs because nobody wants to commit to obvious instability. The administration is trapped between Mason’s contract and the reality that every game does more damage. This isn’t a hot seat, it’s a death watch.
Luke Fickell drops to #5, but the heat hasn’t decreased at all. All the goodwill from Cincinnati is completely gone after a 16-19 start in Madison. Wisconsin fans are openly questioning whether hiring Fickell was a massive mistake. The offense looks lost, the defense looks confused, and the administration’s demands for “foundational change” are ultimatums, not suggestions. Recruiting has flatlined, with elite Midwest prospects now choosing programs like Iowa and Minnesota over Wisconsin. Donors are calculating buyout scenarios and floating replacement names. His $7.625M salary looked smart when everyone expected success. Now it looks like an expensive anchor.
Justin Wilcox remains at #6 as Cal’s situation reaches existential crisis levels. Nine years and a 48-54 record, with the ACC move exposing every weakness instead of creating opportunities. Fourth quarter collapses define the program now, and fans plan around expecting defeat. The real crisis is financial, donors have completely checked out and stopped funding the program. Recruiting has stagnated to the point where Cal loses battles to Mountain West schools. The administration isn’t asking whether to fire Wilcox anymore. They’re asking bigger questions about whether Cal football at this level is sustainable. That’s far more dangerous.
Bill Belichick at #7 represents the most stunning collapse of expectations in college football. Six Super Bowl rings have produced a 4-5 record that has fans mocking a hire they celebrated months ago. One Power Four win, uncertain bowl eligibility, and a coaching style built for NFL professionals that doesn’t work with teenagers. Elite recruits visit once and immediately look elsewhere. His $10M salary looked brilliant when everyone expected immediate success, now it prevents necessary program investments. The administration is losing patience and credibility with donors who expected a revolution. Every game does more recruiting damage. The experiment is failing in real time.
Shane Beamer drops to #8 after mid-season coordinator firings that were pure desperation. His 32-28 record looks fine until you remember South Carolina expects SEC competitiveness, not fighting for bowl eligibility. The firings bought time but fixed nothing fundamental. Bowl eligibility has moved from goal to survival requirement, the minimum needed to keep his job. Booster support is now conditional, demanding actual results instead of energy and South Carolina ties. Recruiting is suffering as elite prospects watch the chaos and commit elsewhere. The administration has loaded the gun. Anything less than a bowl game and he’s done.
Dave Aranda falls to #9, and the shine from that 2021 Big 12 Championship has completely worn off. His 36-34 record through six seasons isn’t disastrous, it’s just deeply uninspiring for a program that expects more. Aranda wins just enough games to avoid the hot seat entirely, but never enough to generate real momentum or championship buzz. The fan base has moved from “trust the process” to “what exactly is the process?” as another mediocre season unfolds. Recruiting has slowed as elite Texas prospects look for programs with clearer upward trajectories. Aranda’s defensive expertise was supposed to be the foundation for sustained success, but it hasn’t translated into consistent winning. The remaining games will determine whether Baylor sees enough to commit long-term or starts exploring other options.
Mark Stoops barely holds #10 after one Auburn win bought temporary relief from what felt like inevitable disaster. His 81-78 record through 13 seasons is both Kentucky’s most successful era ever and clear evidence of a program that’s hit its ceiling. Multi-year SEC losing streaks and repeated blowouts have created frustration throughout the program. The real problem? Kentucky would owe Stoops nearly $38 million if they fired him after this season, and the contract requires the full amount be paid within 60 days. That’s not just expensive, it’s functionally impossible for Kentucky’s athletic budget. Stoops is essentially untouchable no matter how the season ends. The remaining games aren’t about his job security, they’re about whether another year of known limitations is acceptable. Thirteen years of evidence suggests he’s taken Kentucky as far as he can.
Newsletter subscribers get the expanded treatment, deep dives on each of the top 10 coaches, game previews that actually matter, and curated stories about coaching moves and timely college football topics delivered straight to their inbox every Tuesday and Friday during the season. Tuesdays bring you the updated rankings with insider analysis on who’s rising and falling. Fridays give you the weekend preview, breaking down which coaches are coaching for their jobs in the games that matter most. No fluff. No filler. Just the insider information you need to stay ahead of the coaching carousel before it becomes headlines everywhere else. This isn’t just another college football newsletter, it’s your edge on understanding the power dynamics, buyout negotiations, and behind-the-scenes pressure that determines who stays and who goes. Subscribe here and get the complete picture twice a week.
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This is the part of the season where the rubber meets the road. Where your team and your staff prove they’ve “got it” – or don’t. The early-season excuses are gone. The “we’re still figuring things out” narrative doesn’t fly anymore. By Week 11, you either have a culture that wins close games, a roster that believes in the system, and donors who are writing checks – or you’re watching your career circle the drain in real-time. This is where coaches earn their next contract or start quietly updating their resumes. This is where athletic directors stop taking “we’ll turn it around” phone calls and start having very different conversations. Week 11 separates the programs that are building something real from those that are just delaying the inevitable. And for these ten coaches? We break each situation down below:
Jonathan Smith is sitting on a $33M-$37M buyout that’s paid out over 62 monthly installments – the kind of number that makes firing him financially painful but not impossible. The problem? He’s already lost his fan base after humiliating losses, recruiting is cratering, and donors are hesitant to continue funding a sinking ship. New AD J Batt inherited this mess and now faces a massive decision to either force Smith to turn it around immediately or mobilize donors to eat the buyout and start over. Michigan State isn’t just losing games – they’re losing their identity. Every day Smith remains in place is another day that elite recruits look elsewhere.
Mike Locksley has lost the locker room, and everyone knows it. NIL chaos has players checked out, fourth-quarter collapses have become routine, and October was an unmitigated disaster that had fans chanting for his firing in the stadium. His seat is scorching, #2 on the hot seat rankings, but he’s got one lifeline: a legitimately strong 2025 recruiting class that’s making the administration hesitate before pulling the trigger. The job market is also flooded with high-profile openings, which might give him a reprieve simply because Maryland doesn’t want to get into a bidding war and strike out. But make no mistake: donor support is evaporating, administration confidence is gone, and Locksley is one more ugly loss away from a Sunday morning firing.
Mike Norvell dropped from #1 to #3 on the hot seat after a win over Wake Forest and enough player support to give the administration cover to hesitate on his $55M+ buyout. But dropping two spots isn’t a victory – it’s a temporary reprieve. He barely survived recent board meetings where his future was debated in real-time, boosters are in open revolt, and fan skepticism is at an all-time high. Behind closed doors, FSU is already planning for 2026 when that buyout becomes more manageable. Questions about fit, contract structure, and whether this marriage ever made sense continue to linger. Norvell bought himself time, but one more blowout loss and he’s right back at #1.
Luke Fickell is torching every ounce of goodwill he built at Cincinnati, and it’s happening fast. Multiple blowout losses and a stagnant offense have Wisconsin fans throwing remotes through their TVs, while recruiting momentum has completely flatlined. The administration isn’t just disappointed, they’re demanding foundational change, the kind of language that means “fix this NOW or we’re moving on.” Recent staff decisions have only accelerated skepticism, and fan patience has completely evaporated, with social media ablaze and calling for a reset. The only thing keeping Fickell employed is his buyout, but donors are starting to ask the question every coach dreads: “How much would it actually cost to start over?” One more embarrassing loss, and that buyout begins looking like a bargain.
Justin Wilcox has mastered the art of losing games in the fourth quarter, and Cal fans have moved past frustration into full acceptance mode. Navigating conference realignment chaos while failing to elevate recruiting has left the program stagnant at a time when adaptation is everything. The death knell? Donors have checked out completely; they’ve stopped writing checks, stopped believing in the vision, and started asking pointed questions about ROI. Doubts about future competitiveness aren’t whispers anymore; they’re loud conversations in booster meetings. Wilcox isn’t just on shaky ground – he’s standing on a fault line, and everyone is waiting for the earthquake.
Bill Belichick at North Carolina was supposed to be a revolution with six Super Bowl rings, transforming college football. Instead, it’s looking like a very expensive mistake. One Power Four win. Bowl eligibility hanging by a thread. And a coaching style built for NFL veterans that doesn’t translate to 18-year-olds who need recruiting, not drafting. The administration is losing patience fast because elite prospects are looking at UNC and seeing chaos, not a championship pedigree. Recruiting hasn’t improved; it has actually gotten worse. The contract details are murky but undoubtedly expensive, the kind of money that looked brilliant when everyone thought he’d win immediately and catastrophic now that he’s not. The experiment is failing, and everyone is watching to see how quickly UNC pulls the plug.
Shane Beamer fired his offensive coordinator and offensive line coach mid-season, a desperate move that screams “I’m fighting for my life.” And it might not be enough. Insiders are saying it plainly: unless South Carolina rallies for bowl eligibility, Beamer is done. Booster support is crumbling fast, with the money people who once championed his energy and “South Carolina guy” credentials now demanding answers about results. Pressure is coming from everywhere—fans, administration, donors—all pointing to the same conclusion: the current vision isn’t working. Recruiting is getting massacred by staff instability, because elite prospects don’t commit to programs where coaches are getting fired mid-season and the head coach’s future is a weekly radio debate. Beamer bought himself time with those firings, but bowl eligibility isn’t just a goal anymore—it’s a job requirement.
Tim Beck still has the backing of Coastal Carolina’s administration, thanks to recent bowl appearances, but that institutional patience has an expiration date that’s approaching quickly. Competitive culture is struggling in a Sun Belt where parity is real, and roster retention has become a nightmare in the portal era. Donors aren’t panicking yet, they’re not calling for his head yet, but they’re watching, whispering, and starting to ask the question every coach dreads: “What happens if we miss a bowl game this year?” That’s the line in the sand. Miss the postseason and the conversation changes overnight from “let’s give him more time” to “maybe it’s time for a new direction.” Beck has a lifeline, but it’s fraying fast.
Dave Aranda’s shine has completely worn off at Baylor, and the 2021 Big 12 Championship feels like ancient history. A mediocre record, zero championship buzz, and a fan base that has moved from “trust the process” to “what exactly IS the process?” has the administration and boosters doing more than watching—they’re calculating buyout logistics. That’s not hot seat attention; that’s death row. The donor base is eroding, checking out, and wondering if their money is being invested wisely. Recruiting momentum is slowing to a crawl because elite prospects can smell uncertainty from a mile away. Aranda needs a strong finish, not just bowl eligibility, but something that reminds people why Baylor hired him in the first place. Because right now? Nobody remembers, and that’s the most dangerous position any coach can be in.
Mark Stoops was this close to being fired before a dramatic win at Auburn bought him a reprieve, but one victory doesn’t erase a multi-year SEC losing streak. Years of being demolished by conference opponents have left Kentucky feeling more like a basketball school’s side project than a legitimate SEC program, and the administration has had legitimate conversations about buyout numbers and replacement candidates. The buyout is sizeable but not insurmountable, meaning if things go south again, Kentucky can afford to move on. Stoops needs two things immediately: roster confidence (players who believe they can compete in the SEC) and donor confidence (boosters who believe their money isn’t being wasted). Both are shaky right now. The remaining games aren’t just about bowl eligibility; they’re about survival, and everyone is watching.
Newsletter subscribers get the expanded treatment, deep dives on each of the top 10 coaches, game previews that actually matter, and curated stories about coaching moves and timely college football topics delivered straight to their inbox every Tuesday and Friday during the season. No fluff. No filler. Just the insider information you need to stay ahead of the coaching carousel before it becomes headlines everywhere else. This isn’t just another college football newsletter—it’s your edge on understanding the power dynamics, buyout negotiations, and behind-the-scenes pressure that determines who stays and who goes. Subscribe here and get the complete picture twice a week.
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