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The UNLV Story No One Is Talking About (And Why Dan Mullen’s Gamble Will Either Make History Or Destroy Everything)

Mark Haines on August 13, 2025

Most college football stories are predictable.

Bad team hires a new coach. Coach rebuilds slowly over three years. Maybe they win some games, maybe they don’t. But what’s happening at UNLV right now isn’t that story at all.

This is something completely different.

The Foundation That Was Already Perfect

This wasn’t a broken program that needed fixing.

UNLV just finished an 11-3 season with 495 points scored and only 298 allowed. They made their first Mountain West Championship Game appearance ever and won a bowl game over California. Barry Odom had built the best two-year run in program history.

So what did Dan Mullen do when he got hired?

He tore it apart and started over. The numbers that prove this program was already elite: 416.1 yards per game on offense, 23 forced turnovers on defense, and their first winning streak since 1984. Most coaches would have been thrilled to inherit this foundation.

Mullen decided it wasn’t enough.

The Move That Makes No Sense (Until You Think About It)

Here’s what most coaches would have done with this situation.

Keep the core players who delivered 11 wins. Build around the existing foundation that just reached a championship game. Make small tweaks and ride the momentum Barry Odom created.

Mullen did the exact opposite.

He brought in 20+ Power Four transfers and created competition at every position. He rebuilt both the offensive and defensive systems from scratch. The quarterback room tells the whole story: instead of rolling with returning senior Cameron Friel, he added Anthony Colandrea from Virginia and Alex Orji from Michigan.

Most coaches avoid that kind of chaos.

Why This Strategy Actually Makes Perfect Sense

Here’s what people don’t understand about Dan Mullen.

He’s done this before at Mississippi State and Florida. At Mississippi State, he took a program that had never been ranked No. 1 and put them atop the first College Football Playoff rankings in 2014. His quarterback development track record includes Dak Prescott, Tim Tebow, and Kyle Trask.

This isn’t gambling—it’s pattern recognition.

When Jake Pope (Alabama/Georgia transfer) says, “Guys jelled really fast. I like the culture we have created,” that’s not luck. It’s systematic culture building that Mullen has perfected over 15 years. The same process that turned Mississippi State into a playoff contender is now happening in Las Vegas.

That’s why this actually works.

The 3 Reasons This Could Work

Reason 1: Competition Creates Excellence

Nobody’s position is guaranteed when you bring in 20+ Power Four transfers.

The former Alabama safety has to prove he’s better than the returning starter. The Michigan quarterback has to prove he’s better than the Virginia transfer. This creates immediate urgency where most teams spend months building chemistry.

These players are fighting for their careers from day one.

Reason 2: Mullen’s Cultural Blueprint

Chief Borders followed Mullen from Florida to Las Vegas for a reason.

“Work like a pro and act like one,” Borders explains. “It all starts with laying down that foundation and how we treat each other.” This isn’t about talent acquisition—it’s about culture transformation that Mullen has perfected.

The system matters more than the players.

Reason 3: The Schedule Sets Up Perfectly

UNLV’s 2025 schedule creates the perfect testing ground.

UCLA provides a winnable Power 5 game early. Road games at Boise State and Colorado State are the real championship tests. Sportsbooks set their win total at 8.5 games—the highest in program history.

The betting market believes in this transformation.

The Financial Pressure That Changes Everything

UNLV paid Mullen $17.5 million and can’t afford for this to fail.

Season ticket sales jumped from 4,061 to 5,031 before the season started. Revenue increased from $1.8M to $2.5M, driven solely by hiring excitement. The athletic department is betting everything on immediate success, not gradual improvement.

This isn’t a rebuilding project with patience.

The 2 Ways This Ends

Scenario 1: Complete Success

Mullen’s transfer strategy works, and team chemistry develops quickly.

They beat UCLA in a statement game and split with Boise State on the road. The Mountain West Championship becomes a realistic goal, and College Football Playoff talk begins. UNLV transforms from regional story to national phenomenon.

Everyone calls Mullen a genius.

Scenario 2: Spectacular Failure

Too many new players create chemistry problems and identity confusion.

The offense struggles without Hajj-Malik Williams’ 2,800 combined yards. The defense can’t replace Jackson Woodard’s 135 tackles and leadership. Four or five losses waste all the momentum Barry Odom built.

Mullen’s reputation takes a massive hit.

Why I Think This Works

Dan Mullen has never taken the safe approach in his entire career.

At Mississippi State, he built offenses around mobile quarterbacks when that wasn’t trendy. At Florida, he developed quarterbacks that others couldn’t fix. Now at UNLV, he’s betting that talent plus competition plus culture beats continuity every time.

The early signs point toward success.

Player testimonials about rapid chemistry development are encouraging. The quality of transfer additions from Alabama, Georgia, Virginia, and Michigan is undeniable. His systematic approach to competition and accountability has worked everywhere he’s coached.

But here’s what will determine everything.

How does this team respond when they’re down 10 points at Boise State? How do they handle pressure when ESPN GameDay shows up for UCLA? Can a roster of mostly transfers develop the trust that wins championship games?

Those moments will define this entire experiment.

The Bottom Line

Dan Mullen didn’t come to UNLV to manage a good program.

He came to build a great one through complete transformation. The $17.5 million investment, 20+ Power Four transfers, and cultural overhaul represent the biggest gamble in program history. This is either the blueprint for how mid-major programs compete at the highest level or a cautionary tale about changing too much too fast.

Either way, it’s going to be fascinating to watch.

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Southern Miss Football 2025: Charles Huff Just Copy-Pasted a Championship Program

Mark Haines on August 12, 2025

Here’s what everyone is missing about the Southern Miss hire.

Charles Huff didn’t just take a new job. He literally copy-pasted an entire championship program from Marshall to Hattiesburg. Most coaching hires involve one person switching schools. This is different. This is importing a proven system, proven players, and proven results wholesale.

And if you understand what actually happened here, you’ll realize Southern Miss just pulled off the most aggressive program rebuild in modern college football.

This Isn’t a Coaching Change. It’s a Hostile Takeover.

Let me paint the picture:

Marshall goes 10-3, wins the Sun Belt championship, and destroys Louisiana 31-3 in the title game. Their quarterback throws 19 touchdowns with 2 interceptions. Their offense averages 382.8 yards per game. Their defense allows just 23.1 points per game.

Southern Miss goes 1-11, scores 15.3 points per game, allows 37.8 points per game, goes winless in conference play.

Normal world: Southern Miss hires a good coach and hopes he can slowly rebuild.

What actually happened: Southern Miss hired the good coach AND most of his championship team.

Key players who switched uniforms:

  • Braylon Braxton: Marshall’s quarterback with the 19-2 touchdown-to-interception ratio
  • Carl Chester: 20 catches, 342 yards, 3 touchdowns at Marshall
  • Tychaun Chapman: Multi-use weapon with rushing and receiving TDs
  • Bralon Brown: Explosive receiver from Marshall’s championship squad
  • Elijah Metcalf: Proven target with multiple touchdown catches
  • Josh Moten: Cornerback with 5 interceptions

That represents approximately 20 key contributors from Marshall’s championship team now wearing Southern Miss uniforms, creating an unprecedented roster transformation in modern college football.

This isn’t roster building. It’s roster importing.

The numbers only underscore just how dramatic this turnaround is poised to be.

The Numbers Don’t Lie (And They’re Brutal)

Here’s the gap Huff is bridging.

Quarterback play:

  • 2024 Southern Miss QBs: 7 touchdown passes, 17 interceptions
  • Braylon Braxton at Marshall: 19 touchdown passes, 2 interceptions

Offensive production:

  • Southern Miss 2024: 283.5 yards per game
  • Marshall 2024: 382.8 yards per game

Scoring differential:

  • Southern Miss: -22.5 points per game
  • Marshall: +8.7 points per game

Conference results:

  • Southern Miss: 0-8 in Sun Belt play
  • Marshall: 8-1 in Sun Belt play

Same conference. Same level of competition. Completely different results.

The question isn’t whether Southern Miss will improve. The question is how much.

But understanding the statistical transformation requires examining the strategic genius behind it.

Why This Strategy Works

Most people think college football rebuilds take 3-4 years because you have to recruit high school players, develop them, install systems, and build culture.

Huff skipped all of that.

Traditional rebuild vs. Huff’s method:

  • Recruit 18-year-olds and hope they develop → Brought 22-year-olds who already know his system
  • Install new offensive and defensive schemes → Brought the same coordinators who installed those schemes at Marshall
  • Build championship culture → Imported players who already lived it

This is what smart business leaders do when they take over struggling companies. They don’t start from scratch.

They bring their proven team and proven processes.

The scope of this organizational transplant becomes even clearer when you examine the coaching staff changes.

The Coaching Staff Migration Tells the Real Story

Jason Semore, Marshall’s defensive coordinator who held Sun Belt offenses to 23.1 points per game? He’s now Southern Miss’s defensive coordinator.

Johnathan Galante, who coached Marshall’s top-15 nationally ranked special teams? Southern Miss special teams coordinator. Telly Lockette, who directed Marshall’s 201.7 yards per game rushing attack that ranked 19th nationally? Running backs coach at Southern Miss.

This isn’t just Charles Huff getting a new job. This is an entire championship operation relocating.

The transfer portal skeptics completely miss why this approach represents the future of college football rebuilding.

What Everyone Gets Wrong About Transfer Portal Era

Critics say the transfer portal ruins college football because players just chase money and change schools constantly.

They’re missing the point.

The transfer portal allows proven coaches to bring proven systems and proven players to new programs instantly. It allows smart programs to skip the traditional 3-4 year rebuild cycle. Southern Miss just demonstrated the blueprint: Don’t recruit and develop.

Import and deploy.

Now the practical test begins with Southern Miss’s 2025 schedule, where this transplanted championship core will face familiar competition.

The 2025 Schedule Reality Check

Southern Miss opens against Mississippi State on August 30.

That’s a measuring stick game against an SEC opponent. The Sun Belt schedule includes home games against Appalachian State, Jacksonville State, Louisiana-Monroe, Texas State, and Troy. Road tests at Georgia Southern, Louisiana, Arkansas State, and South Alabama.

Here’s what’s different: Last year, these same Marshall players went 8-1 against Sun Belt competition. Now they’re playing the same conference schedule wearing different uniforms.

The logical outcome isn’t 1-11. It’s bowl eligibility, and potentially much more.

Traditional rebuilding timelines simply don’t apply when you’re importing championship-level talent and systems.

Why Traditional Rebuilding Wisdom Is Dead

Old model: Hire coach, recruit players, install system, develop culture, hope for improvement in year 3-4.

New model: Import championship coach, championship players, championship system, championship culture. Compete immediately.

Southern Miss just proved the new model works faster.

The evidence is overwhelming when you step back and assess what actually happened in Hattiesburg.

The Bottom Line

Charles Huff brought a 10-3 Marshall team to Southern Miss and changed the uniforms.

The quarterback who threw 19 touchdown passes with 2 interceptions is the same quarterback who will take snaps for Southern Miss. The receivers who caught those touchdown passes are the same receivers running routes in Hattiesburg. The defense that allowed 23.1 points per game at Marshall is largely the same defense taking the field for Southern Miss.

This isn’t hope and potential. This is proven production with a change of address. Southern Miss didn’t just hire a good coach.

They acquired a championship program.

Expect to see Southern Miss fighting for bowl eligibility in 2025—and if this blueprint works as designed, they’ll be competing for much more than that.

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The Tony Gibson Experiment: How Marshall Football Became College Football’s Most Dangerous Wild Card

Mark Haines on August 11, 2025

Marshall football has no idea what they’re doing in 2025.

And that might be exactly what makes them terrifying.

While everyone else obsesses over Alabama’s quarterback battle or debates whether Georgia can repeat, the most fascinating story in college football is unfolding in Huntington, West Virginia. Tony Gibson just walked into the most impossible coaching situation in America, and he’s about to prove whether experience matters more than chaos.

The Madness Behind the Method

Let me paint you the picture of what Gibson inherited.

A Sun Belt Championship. A 10-3 record. A seven-game winning streak to end 2024. Then, in 72 hours, it all disappeared.

Charles Huff bolted for Southern Miss the day after winning Marshall’s first conference title since 2014. Thirty-six players hit the transfer portal faster than you could say “contract negotiation.”

Gone:

  • Three quarterbacks
  • The leading rusher
  • The top linebacker
  • Seventeen of 22 starters from the championship game

The roster got so decimated that Marshall couldn’t even field a team for their bowl game.

Think about that. They won a championship in December and couldn’t play football in January.

The Impossible Math Gibson Just Inherited

Gibson is 52 years old and has never been a head coach at this level.

He spent six years making NC State’s defense elite, but calling plays is different from running a program. Most first-time head coaches get rebuilding situations with time to develop. Gibson’s championship program is in free fall.

Welcome to college football’s transfer portal era, where entire rosters can disappear overnight.

Here’s how he’s attacking the impossible: Gibson signed 62 new players. Not 10. Not 20. Sixty-two. He basically built an entirely new team in four months, and according to Rivals, it’s the No. 2 transfer class in FBS.

Lost three starting quarterbacks?

  • Brought in Carlos Del Rio-Wilson (FBS starting experience)
  • Added Zion Turner (FBS starting experience)
  • Recruited freshman Koi Fagan from West Virginia
  • Now has six quarterbacks competing for one job

That’s not desperation.

The Rod Smith Factor Nobody’s Talking About

While everyone focuses on Gibson’s defensive background, they’re missing the most important hire he made.

Rod Smith as offensive coordinator.

Smith just finished turning Jacksonville State into a scoring machine:

  • No. 12 nationally in points per game (36.0)
  • No. 3 nationally in rushing (251.2 yards per game)
  • 51 rushing touchdowns in 2024

Smith’s resume reads like a quarterback development clinic. Denard Robinson (Big Ten Offensive Player of the Year). Pat White (Big East Offensive Player of the Year). Tyler Huff at Jacksonville State.

The man has a system, and more importantly, he knows how to implement it fast.

This matters because Marshall’s 2024 offense wasn’t broken. They averaged 31.8 points per game and 382.8 yards per game with a balanced attack that rushed for 201.7 yards per contest.

Smith isn’t fixing problems—he’s amplifying strengths.

The Schedule That Reveals Everything

Marshall opens at Georgia.

In Sanford Stadium. Against a top-5 SEC team. With a completely rebuilt roster and a first-time head coach.

Most programs would call that a nightmare. Gibson calls it a measuring stick.

The beauty of starting with Georgia is that nobody expects Marshall to win. The pressure is entirely on Kirby Smart’s team. Gibson gets to see what his new pieces look like against elite competition without the weight of expectations.

Then comes the real test:

  • At Louisiana (the team Marshall beat for the 2024 title)
  • At Appalachian State
  • Home vs James Madison
  • Home vs Texas State
  • Home vs Georgia Southern

These aren’t rebuilding games—these are statement games.

Why the Chaos Factor Makes Marshall Dangerous

Everyone’s analyzing Marshall like they’re a normal football team.

They’re not.

Normal teams have established hierarchies, known commodities, predictable tendencies. Marshall has none of that. They’re starting fresh with players from dozens of different programs, implementing new schemes, building chemistry in real-time.

That sounds like a recipe for disaster, but it’s also what makes them impossible to prepare for.

How do you scout a team when half the roster has never played together? How do you game-plan against an offense when the quarterback competition is wide open and the coordinator is installing a completely new system?

You can’t.

The Defense That Could Surprise Everyone

While everyone worries about offensive identity, Gibson’s defensive background might be Marshall’s secret weapon.

The 2024 defense was already solid:

  • 23.1 points per game allowed
  • 1.5 turnovers forced per contest

Now Gibson gets to implement his 3-3-5 schemes that made NC State’s defense consistently elite.

Key returners providing the foundation:

  • Jacarius Clayton (defensive line, junior)
  • Braydin Ward (sophomore)
  • Mikailin Warren (sophomore)

Add Gibson’s transfer portal additions and defensive coordinator Shannon Morrison (a Marshall alum who knows the program), and this unit could be special by November.

“I Am Home”: The Message That Changes Everything

Gibson’s personal connection to West Virginia became central to his appeal.

At his introductory press conference, the Van, West Virginia native made his intentions clear: “I am home and I am staying home. This is going to be our 16th house we’re going to move into in Huntington and it’s going to be our last house.”

The homecoming message resonated with players who stayed through the transition. Returning tight end Toby Payne captured the sentiment: “Everybody that stayed wanted to be here. This place is special. It’s amazing. You’ve got the hometown feel.”

Gibson’s recruiting pitch centers on community rather than flashy promises: “We sell them on community and how much it means to the people here. It’s an easy sell to be at Marshall.”

The coach even made bold claims about in-state recruiting: “We’re going to own this state, and we’re not going to let the good players leave this state.”

That confidence reflects Gibson’s understanding that Marshall’s success depends on local investment, not just national recognition.

The Real Question Nobody’s Asking

Can Gibson make his players believe the chaos is actually order?

Sixty-two new players means 62 guys who chose Marshall specifically because of Tony Gibson. They didn’t transfer to play for the old staff or the old system.

They came to be part of something new.

That’s powerful psychology. Gibson’s not inheriting doubt—he’s creating belief. Every player on this roster is there because they bought into his vision.

Why 2025 is Make-or-Break (But Not How You Think)

Gibson doesn’t need to win the Sun Belt in Year 1.

He needs to prove the foundation is real.

The math:

  • Seven wins = bowl eligibility and recruiting momentum
  • Eight wins = legitimate Sun Belt threat
  • Nine wins = Huntington believes they’ve found their guy

But here’s the twist: Gibson’s biggest challenge isn’t winning games.

It’s managing expectations.

Marshall fans just watched their team win a championship. They know what success looks like, and they won’t accept mediocrity just because the roster turned over.

Gibson has to balance building for the future while competing in the present. That’s the impossible math of modern college football—where championship expectations don’t pause for roster reconstruction—and it’s about to define his career.

The Bottom Line

Tony Gibson just signed up for college football’s ultimate experiment.

Can you build a championship-level program from scratch in one offseason?

Gibson didn’t take this job to be safe. He took it to prove that chaos can be shaped into order, that experience matters less than vision, and that sometimes the best way to build something great is to start completely over.

Marshall isn’t just another Sun Belt team trying to repeat as champions.

They’re a living laboratory for what college football might become: constantly evolving, perpetually rebuilding, forever unpredictable.

And Tony Gibson? He’s either about to become a genius or a cautionary tale.

Want to know which other “under the radar” coaches are about to be on the hot seat?

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Here’s Why Everyone Is Wrong About G.J. Kinne (And Why Texas State Just Became The Sun Belt’s Most Dangerous Program)

Mark Haines on August 9, 2025

Most college football analysts are missing the point.

They see G.J. Kinne’s 1.637 hot seat rating and think: “Solid coach, nice story, probably sustainable.” They’re wrong. What they’re actually looking at is the beginning of something much bigger.

The Numbers Don’t Lie (But They Don’t Tell The Whole Story Either)

Here’s what everyone knows:

  • 16-10 overall record in two FBS seasons
  • Back-to-back 8-5 campaigns
  • .615 winning percentage against weak competition
  • 2nd highest rating in the Sun Belt Conference
  • $2 million annual contract extension through 2031

Here’s what they’re missing:

Texas State had never won a bowl game as an FBS program before Kinne arrived. Not once. In 12 years. The program was so irrelevant that when Jake Spavital got fired after going 13-35, most people couldn’t even name Texas State’s conference.

Now they’re back-to-back bowl winners with the highest-paid coach in the Sun Belt.

That’s not incremental improvement—that’s transformation.

The McCloud Experiment That Changed Everything

When Jordan McCloud entered the transfer portal after South Florida, every Sun Belt coach wanted him.

He was the reigning conference Player of the Year with 3,000+ passing yards, dual-threat capability, and a proven track record. Most coaches would have pitched tradition, facilities, or playing time. Kinne pitched something different: “Come help us build something nobody expects.”

McCloud bought in, and the results speak for themselves:

  • 273 completions on 389 attempts
  • 3,227 passing yards
  • 30 touchdown passes
  • 70.2% completion rate
  • 278 rushing yards and 7 rushing touchdowns

But here’s the part that matters most: In wins, Texas State averaged 523.4 yards per game. In losses, that number dropped to 402.6 yards. The difference wasn’t talent—it was system execution under pressure.

When Kinne’s offense operated correctly, they were unstoppable.

The Roster Revolution Nobody Saw Coming

While other coaches complain about the transfer portal, Kinne turned it into a weapon.

After McCloud exhausted his eligibility, most programs would have panicked. Kinne added three experienced quarterbacks while maintaining cultural standards that separate his program from desperate portal fishing:

  • Gevani McCoy (Oregon State transfer)
  • Holden Geriner (Auburn transfer)
  • Nate Yarnell (Pittsburgh transfer)
  • Brad Jackson (returning sophomore)

“This is an open competition and none of those guys got NIL money to come here,” Kinne explained. “This is an opportunity to come prove yourself to be the guy.”

That’s not just roster management—that’s cultural design.

The Statistical Story That Reveals Everything

The numbers tell you exactly where Texas State stands and where they’re headed.

Offensive Production (2024):

  • 208.2 rushing yards per game
  • 268.7 passing yards per game
  • 476.9 total yards per game
  • 36.5 points per game

The Critical Wins vs. Losses Split:

In 8 wins:

  • 7.1 yards per play
  • 245.5 rushing yards per game
  • 2.8 rushing touchdowns per game

In 5 losses:

  • 5.5 yards per play
  • 148.6 rushing yards per game
  • 1.0 rushing touchdowns per game

See the pattern? When Texas State could run the ball, they dominated. When they couldn’t, they became one-dimensional. But here’s what’s interesting: their passing numbers stayed relatively consistent (277.9 yards in wins vs. 254.0 in losses).

The problem wasn’t the passing game—it was balance.

The Defense Nobody Talks About

Everyone focuses on Kinne’s offensive background, but they should be watching the defensive improvements.

Defensive splits tell the real story:

In Wins:

  • 332.5 yards allowed per game
  • 109.8 rushing yards allowed per game

In Losses:

  • 397.8 yards allowed per game
  • 196.2 rushing yards allowed per game

When Texas State stopped the run, they won. When they didn’t, they lost. It’s that simple. Returning defensive anchor Kalil Alexander (6.5 sacks, 11 tackles for loss), plus veteran secondary leaders Ryan Nolan and Bobby Crosby, provide the foundation.

But the real improvement will come from depth, and depth comes from recruiting.

The Contract Extension That Changes Everything

November 2024: Texas State extends Kinne through 2031.

Seven years. $14 million total. The highest-paid coach in the Sun Belt. That’s not just financial commitment—that’s institutional belief. “We’ve been impressed with his leadership and ability to quickly establish a culture that elevates the experience of our student-athletes,” Athletic Director Don Coryell said.

Translation: “We think this is just the beginning.”

The extension came before the 2024 season ended. Before bowl eligibility was secured. Before the final evaluation was complete.

That tells you everything about where Texas State thinks this program is heading.

The 2025 Schedule Reality Check

Here’s where things get interesting for Kinne’s third season.

The schedule includes legitimate tests that will reveal whether the improvement is sustainable:

  • Road trip to Arizona State (Big 12 opponent)
  • Home game against UTSA (American Conference)
  • Sun Belt opponents that finished above .500

This isn’t the cupcake schedule that artificially inflated early records. These are prove-it games. Win 6-7 games against this schedule, and Texas State establishes itself as a legitimate program. Win 8-9 games, and they become a conference championship contender.

Win 10+ games, and Kinne becomes a Power Four candidate.

The Recruiting Philosophy That’s Working

Most coaches talk about “building culture,” but Kinne does it.

“We’re always going to recruit Texas high school kids, and that’s really going to be the foundation of our program,” he explained. “I think that part was missing before we got here.” But he supplements high school recruiting with strategic transfer additions—not panic moves, but strategic additions.

The difference matters:

  • High school kids provide the culture foundation
  • Transfers fill immediate needs
  • Together, they create competitive balance faster than traditional recruiting cycles allow

This approach addresses previous recruiting deficiencies that left Texas State competing for players other programs overlooked.

The Hot Seat Rating That Tells The Truth

1.637—that number represents a coach significantly exceeding expectations.

For context:

  • Above 1.0 = exceeding expectations
  • Below 0.5 = termination pressure
  • 1.637 = exceptional performance

The “.615 winning percentage against weak competition” qualifier misses the bigger picture. Texas State wasn’t beating weak competition before Kinne arrived—they were losing to everyone. Now they’re winning consistently enough to worry about strength of schedule.

That’s progress worth recognizing.

The Future Nobody Wants To Admit

Here’s what’s about to happen based on current trajectory:

Year 3 (2025): 7-8 wins, bowl eligible again Year 4 (2026): Conference championship contention
Year 5 (2027): Power Four interest begins

The infrastructure is already in place:

  • $11.6 million indoor practice facility under construction
  • Highest coaching salary in conference
  • Proven system that develops players
  • Recruiting momentum in talent-rich Texas
  • Institutional commitment at the highest levels

Most importantly, Texas State isn’t treating this like an experiment anymore—they’re treating it like an investment.

Why Everyone Else Is Missing The Point

College football analysts love to debate “ceilings” and “realistic expectations,” but they’re asking the wrong questions.

The right question isn’t: “How good can Texas State become?” The right question is: “How quickly can Kinne build sustainable excellence?” Based on the evidence, the answer is: Faster than anyone expects.

The Bottom Line

G.J. Kinne’s hot seat rating of 1.637 doesn’t just indicate job security—it indicates transformation in progress.

Texas State went from irrelevant to bowl winner in Year 1. From bowl winner to consistent winner in Year 2. Year 3 is about proving they belong in bigger conversations. And based on everything we’ve seen so far, they’re ahead of schedule.

Hot Seat Temperature: Sub-zero. Kinne isn’t just safe—he’s building something special that nobody else saw coming.

The only question left is how long it takes everyone else to catch up.

Want to know which other “under the radar” coaches are about to be on the hot seat?

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Why Major Applewhite’s Massive Roster Turnover and Houston Failure Make 2025 His Most Critical Season at South Alabama

Mark Haines on August 7, 2025

Most college football fans have no idea what happened at South Alabama in 2024.

They went 7-6. They won their bowl game. They kept the program moving forward after their previous coach left for Alabama. But here’s what the numbers don’t tell you: Major Applewhite is sitting on the most precarious coaching throne in college football.

His hot seat rating? 1.224

His winning percentage against weak competition? .538

And 2025 is about to expose whether he’s actually a head coach or just an offensive coordinator who got lucky for one season.

The Houston Disaster That Everyone Conveniently Forgot

Let me give you the brutal truth about Applewhite’s track record.

At Houston (2017-2018), he compiled a resume of failure that should terrify every South Alabama fan. The numbers don’t lie: 15-11 record with three bowl losses. The final game was a 70-14 demolition by Army that ended his career in humiliating fashion: two seasons, zero meaningful wins, and a pink slip.

“After a thorough evaluation of our football program, it is my assessment that our future opportunities for success are better addressed by making this very difficult decision now,” Houston athletic director Chris Pezman said when he axed Applewhite.

That wasn’t coach-speak.

That was a public execution.

And now South Alabama is betting its program on the same guy who couldn’t win the games that mattered at Houston.

The 2024 Numbers Game: Good Stats, Bad Questions

Applewhite’s first season looked decent on paper.

The offensive production validated his reputation as a skilled play-caller. South Alabama averaged 442.2 yards per game and 32.4 points per game, showcasing the balanced attack that made him famous as a coordinator. QB Gio Lopez completed passes at a 66% clip for 2,559 yards, 18 touchdowns, and just five interceptions. The backfield duo of Fluff Bothwell (832 yards, 13 TDs) and Kentrel Bullock (831 yards, 7 TDs) formed one of the Sun Belt’s most productive tandems. WR Jamaal Pritchett’s 1,127 receiving yards and nine touchdowns provided the explosive element that stretched defenses.

Those are legitimately impressive numbers.

But here’s where it gets interesting.

The defense was a complete disaster. South Alabama allowed 391 yards per game, ranking 67th nationally, while surrendering 25.2 points per game. The pass defense gave up 248.8 yards through the air while allowing a 64.7% completion rate. Most telling was the situational breakdown: 482 total yards allowed per game in losses compared to just 313 in wins.

You know what this tells me?

Applewhite can still coordinate an offense.

But he has zero clue how to build a complete football program.

The Personnel Exodus That Changes Everything

Here’s where Applewhite’s 2025 gets terrifying.

The roster turnover isn’t normal attrition—it’s a complete program reset. Gone are the key contributors who made 2024’s offensive success possible:

  • Gio Lopez (QB) – 2,559 passing yards
  • Fluff Bothwell (RB) – 832 yards, 13 TDs
  • Jamaal Pritchett (WR) – 1,127 receiving yards
  • Blayne Myrick (LB) – 101 tackles, team leader
  • Jaden Voisin (S) – 83 tackles, 5 INTs

This level of personnel exodus exposes the fundamental challenge every coordinator-turned-head coach faces.

Inheriting talent is easy.

Developing talent is hard.

And now Applewhite has to prove he can 9coach players instead of just calling plays for inherited superstars.

The Quarterback Situation Is Terrifying

Want to know how screwed South Alabama is at the most critical position?

The 2025 quarterback room reads like a coaching nightmare. Bishop Davenport returns with just 606 yards and three touchdowns in limited 2024 action. Transfer Zach Pyron brings Georgia Tech experience but remains completely unknown in Applewhite’s system. Two true freshmen round out the depth chart with zero college snaps between them. This isn’t depth—this is desperation.

Applewhite’s entire offensive philosophy requires precision timing and decision-making.

You know what doesn’t have precision timing?

Inexperienced quarterbacks learning a new system.

This is going to be ugly.

The Infrastructure Investment That Raises The Stakes

South Alabama just broke ground on an $11.6 million indoor practice facility.

The administration is paying Applewhite a competitive salary while investing serious resources in football infrastructure. They’re betting big on this experiment with state-of-the-art facilities designed to attract recruits and demonstrate program commitment. The message is clear: South Alabama views itself as more than a transitional program waiting for the next coaching search.

But here’s what nobody wants to admit.

Facilities don’t win games.

Coaches do.

And Applewhite still hasn’t proven he can coach a team to sustained success.

The Defensive Coordinator Gamble That Could Save His Career

Applewhite hired Will Windham as defensive coordinator, implementing a 4-2-5 scheme designed to counter modern Sun Belt passing attacks.

This might be the decision that makes or breaks his tenure. The 2024 defense allowed 391 yards per game and collapsed completely in losses, surrendering 482 yards per game compared to just 313 in wins. Windham’s system should theoretically address those pass defense struggles while utilizing returning linebacker talent like Darius McKenzie (72 tackles) and safety Wesley Miller (59 tackles, 3 interceptions).

If Windham can field even an average defense, Applewhite’s offensive system has enough firepower to win games.

If the defense remains porous, no amount of offensive creativity will matter.

The defensive line features no returning starters, creating uncertainty about pass rush generation and run-stopping ability, but experienced coordinator hires sometimes work magic with overlooked talent.

The Player Development Test That Defines Everything

Here’s the fundamental question that will determine Applewhite’s future at South Alabama.

Can he develop players, or does he only succeed with inherited talent? In 2024, he inherited Gio Lopez, Fluff Bothwell, and Jamaal Pritchett—proven performers who made his offensive system look brilliant. Now those players are gone, replaced by unknowns who need coaching, development, and time to master complex concepts.

This is where coordinator-turned-head coaches usually fail.

Calling plays for established stars is entirely different from teaching fundamentals to raw prospects.

If Bishop Davenport develops into a reliable starter, if the young receivers learn to create separation, if the offensive line gels despite personnel changes, then Applewhite proves he can coach. But if the offense sputters while he searches for answers, it exposes the difference between game-planning and program-building.

The 2025 season will reveal whether South Alabama hired a coach or just rented a coordinator.

The Hot Seat Mathematics That Don’t Lie

Here’s the deal with that 1.224 hot seat rating.

It means he’s currently exceeding expectations despite a .538 winning percentage against weak competition. The rating reflects unusual positioning for a second-year coach—performing above projections while facing fundamental questions about sustainable progress. The disconnect reveals the complexity of evaluating coaches who inherit successful programs amid significant roster turnover.

But expectations change fast in college football.

Year Two demands specific deliverables:

  • Bowl game appearance (minimum standard)
  • Competitive games against quality opponents
  • Proof that 2024 wasn’t just inherited momentum from Wommack’s culture

Miss any of those benchmarks?

The hot seat gets scorching.

Why 2025 Will Define Applewhite’s Career

Most coaches get a honeymoon period.

Applewhite’s honeymoon ended the moment he signed that contract. South Alabama fans tasted success under Wommack with 10 wins in 2022 and their first bowl victory in 2023. They experienced championship-level expectations for the first time in program history. They’re not going backwards willingly, and administrative patience has limits when infrastructure investments demand returns.

The fan base won’t accept moral victories or moral victories disguised as “building for the future.”

They want results.

And suppose Applewhite can’t prove he’s more than just an offensive coordinator playing dress-up as a head coach. In that case, South Alabama will find someone who can deliver sustained success rather than inherited momentum.

The Bottom Line:

Major Applewhite has all the tools to succeed at South Alabama.

Administrative support, infrastructure investment, and recent program success provide the foundation for sustained growth. The $11.6 million facility investment demonstrates institutional commitment that most Group of Five programs lack. His offensive coordinator credentials remain legitimate, and his recruiting connections throughout Texas and the Southeast create pipeline opportunities for talent acquisition.

But he also has all the warning signs of a coordinator who’s in over his head.

Massive roster turnover, unproven ability to develop players, defensive struggles that undermine offensive success, and previous head coaching failure at a higher level create doubt about long-term viability. The quarterback situation threatens offensive consistency, while the cultural transition from Wommack’s defensive identity requires time that impatient fan bases rarely provide.

2025 isn’t just about bowl eligibility.

It’s about whether Major Applewhite can coach.

Hot Seat Temperature: Warm but stable. Infrastructure investment and administrative support provide a cushion, but 2025 results will determine whether he builds on Year One’s success or starts trending toward the exit.

🥠 Hot Seat Rating Fortune Cookie: 1.224

“The coach who exceeds low expectations while failing high standards walks a tightrope made of borrowed time. Success today does not guarantee tomorrow’s job security when yesterday’s failures cast long shadows.”

Translation: Applewhite is currently performing above what people expected from a first-year coach taking over a program in transition. But that 1.224 rating means he’s living on borrowed credibility—one bad season drops him below the critical 1.0 threshold where expectations meet reality, and athletic directors start making phone calls.

Want to know which other “under the radar” coaches are about to be on the hot seat?

I track the real hot seats (not just the obvious ones) every Friday in my free newsletter.

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Louisiana Coach Michael Desormeaux Faces Make-Or-Break 2025 Season After Losing All-Star Players From 10-Win Team

Mark Haines on August 6, 2025

Here’s what nobody wants to admit about Louisiana football: The 2024 season was a mirage.

Michael Desormeaux’s 10-4 record and Sun Belt Coach of the Year award look impressive in the trophy case. His hot seat rating of 1.171 suggests a coach exceeding expectations. The five-year contract extension through 2029 screams institutional confidence.

But strip away the narrative, and you’ll find something far more troubling.

Louisiana’s “breakthrough” season collapsed the moment it faced real competition.

The 6-Point Season That Exposed Everything

Two games told the entire story.

Louisiana scored six total points in their two most important games of 2024—a 3-31 humiliation against Marshall in the Sun Belt Championship and a 3-34 embarrassment against TCU in the New Mexico Bowl. When the lights got brightest, when the stakes mattered most, Louisiana’s offense didn’t just struggle.

It disappeared entirely.

The numbers reveal the systematic breakdown:

  • Against Marshall and TCU: 232 total yards per game
  • Season average: 415.1 yards per game
  • Championship/bowl offensive production: 56% decrease
  • First downs in crucial games: 6.5 per game average
  • Season first downs average: 20.7 per game

Ben Wooldridge, the Sun Belt Offensive Player of the Year with 2,453 passing yards and 66% completion rate, looked like he’d never seen a football before when it mattered most.

This wasn’t bad luck—this was a coaching staff getting completely outclassed when preparation mattered most.

The Inherited Talent Truth Everyone’s Ignoring

Here’s the uncomfortable reality about Desormeaux’s 23-18 overall record.

Every single impact player who made Louisiana successful in 2024 was recruited and developed under Billy Napier’s system. Look at the proof:

  • Ben Wooldridge: Napier recruit, Sun Belt Offensive Player of the Year
  • Kenneth Almendares: Napier recruit, Lou Groza Award winner (28/31 FGs)
  • Zylan Perry: Napier recruit, 695 yards rushing
  • K.C. Ossai: Napier recruit, 115 tackles
  • All starting offensive linemen: Napier recruits

Louisiana’s 15 All-Sun Belt selections, the most in program history, represented the final remnants of Napier’s championship-caliber recruiting classes.

Desormeaux inherited a championship-caliber roster and managed to go 6-0 on the road while completely choking in the two games that defined the season.

The real test starts now.

2025: The Year Desormeaux’s Coaching Gets Exposed

Louisiana enters 2025 facing the most critical roster turnover in recent program history.

Gone from 2024’s success:

  • Ben Wooldridge (QB): 2,453 yards, 17 TDs
  • Kenneth Almendares (K): 90.3% field goal accuracy, Lou Groza winner
  • Lance Legendre (WR): 826 receiving yards, 16.9 average per catch
  • Jacob Bernard (WR): 375 yards, reliable target
  • K.C. Ossai (LB): 115 tackles, defensive leader
  • Tyrone Lewis Jr. (S): 4 interceptions
  • Chandler Fields (QB): 897 yards, 72.4% completion rate

What’s left:

  • Zylan Perry: 695 rushing yards, 6.2 average
  • Some offensive line continuity
  • Defensive pieces with limited experience
  • Question marks at every skill position

Every single player who made Desormeaux look competent in 2024 has exhausted their eligibility.

This is what happens when you’re managing talent instead of developing it.

The Walker Howard Disaster Nobody Saw Coming

Louisiana fans are celebrating Walker Howard’s homecoming like it’s the second coming of Joe Burrow.

Here’s the reality they’re ignoring: Howard has completed 10 career passes for 63 yards in three college seasons.

Ten. Passes. In three years.

The former five-star recruit’s college journey reveals everything:

  • At LSU (2022): 2-of-4 passing, 7 yards, couldn’t beat out backups
  • At Ole Miss (2023): 3-of-4 passing, 56 yards in limited action
  • At Ole Miss (2024): 0 completions, couldn’t earn playing time

Lane Kiffin, who turned Matt Corral into an NFL draft pick and developed Jaxson Dart into a productive starter, couldn’t find ways to get Howard meaningful snaps in two full seasons.

But somehow, Michael Desormeaux is going to unlock this mystery?

The quarterback room now features Howard competing with redshirt freshman D’Wayne Winfield and Daniel Beale.

This isn’t depth—this is desperation.

The Schedule That Will Expose Every Weakness

Louisiana’s 2025 schedule starts with a friendly before becoming brutal.

Early opportunities:

  • Rice (home opener)
  • McNeese State (home)
  • These games should build confidence for the rebuilt roster

Reality check begins:

  • At Missouri, SEC competition that will expose talent gaps
  • At Troy: Road test against Sun Belt contender
  • At James Madison: Another dangerous road game
  • At South Alabama: Program with postseason aspirations
  • At Arkansas State: Final road test

Remember: This coaching staff got outscored 65-6 in its two biggest games of 2024 with superior talent.

Now they’re facing elevated competition with inferior personnel and zero proven leadership.

The Culture Problem Nobody’s Discussing

Championship programs perform when pressure increases.

Desormeaux’s teams wilt under scrutiny. The evidence speaks for itself:

Regular season success (2024):

  • 6-0 road record (second in program history)
  • 7-2 Sun Belt play
  • 30.9 points per game
  • One of six FBS teams with a perfect road record

High-stakes failure (2024):

  • Sun Belt Championship: 3-31 loss to Marshall
  • New Mexico Bowl: 3-34 loss to TCU
  • Total points in crucial games: 6
  • Total yards in crucial games: 464

Billy Napier’s Louisiana teams consistently delivered in crucial moments through conference championships and meaningful bowl victories.

Desormeaux’s signature moments involve getting shut out when everything’s on the line.

Culture isn’t built through regular-season success against inferior competition—culture reveals itself when circumstances become impossible.

The Recruiting Smoke Screen

Desormeaux’s recruiting efforts look impressive on paper, but miss the crucial point.

Recruiting and developing are completely different skills:

  • Position coaches excel at maximizing individual talent
  • Head coaches must build organizational systems that elevate collective performance
  • Coordinators focus on scheme execution
  • Program builders create sustainable competitive advantages

Desormeaux spent years perfecting tight end techniques under Napier. Now he’s responsible for program architecture, staff management, game-day decision making, and cultural development.

His .561 winning percentage against weak competition over four years suggests a coach who can manage talent but struggles to create sustainable advantages.

The 2024 season confirmed this pattern—success against beatable opponents, complete failure when facing equivalent or superior coaching.

The Contract Extension That Makes No Sense

Louisiana’s administration awarded Desormeaux a five-year extension through 2029 based on one successful regular season.

This decision represents either institutional patience or administrative panic.

The extension timeline doesn’t match college football reality:

  • Programs rarely provide extended timelines for unproven coaches
  • Fan expectations increase with contract investments
  • Recruiting momentum depends on job security perception
  • Bowl eligibility becomes a minimum expectation, not an achievement

Desormeaux has shown he can manage inherited talent and recruit adequately, but he hasn’t demonstrated the ability to develop systems that transcend personnel limitations.

The extension protects Louisiana from coaching searches while potentially locking them into mediocrity.

What 2025 Actually Means For Louisiana

The upcoming season represents Desormeaux’s first authentic coaching evaluation.

Success indicators:

  • Bowl eligibility with an inexperienced roster
  • Competitive games against quality opponents
  • Evidence of player development beyond inherited talent
  • Performance improvement in high-pressure situations

Failure indicators:

  • Regression from 2024’s win total
  • Blowout losses to superior competition
  • Continued struggles in crucial moments
  • Lack of offensive identity without proven playmakers

Louisiana fans deserve authentic evaluation, not comfortable narratives about moral victories.

The program invested serious resources in facilities and coaching salaries based on 2024’s regular season success—that investment deserves an honest assessment.

The Bottom Line Nobody Wants To Hear

Michael Desormeaux inherited a championship-caliber roster and managed it to regular-season success before choking spectacularly when the stakes increased.

Now he gets to prove whether he can coach.

The massive roster turnover eliminates every excuse:

  • No more Napier recruits to lean on
  • No more proven playmakers to mask scheme limitations
  • No more experienced leadership to stabilize crucial moments
  • No more talent advantages to overcome coaching deficiencies

Walker Howard’s addition provides potential upside but doesn’t address systematic coaching concerns. The schedule will expose weaknesses that superior competition always reveals.

Louisiana’s 2025 season will determine whether Desormeaux represents the program’s future or merely its most expensive mistake.

The hot seat temperature remains cool due to the recent contract extension, but college football rarely affords extended timelines for coaches to prove competence.

Year four becomes definitive—success validates the investment, failure reveals the truth everyone’s been avoiding.

Michael Desormeaux is about to find out if he can coach, or if he’s been managing other people’s talent all along.

Want to know which other “under the radar” coaches are about to be on the hot seat?

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The $1 Million Coach Nobody’s Watching Collapses in Real Time

Mark Haines on August 5, 2025

While everyone debates whether Brent Venables can turn around Oklahoma, the most expensive failure in the Sun Belt is happening right under our noses.

His name is Tim Beck. He makes $1.05 million annually. And he’s about to prove that following a legend is college football’s cruelest assignment.

Here’s the story nobody’s telling about Coastal Carolina’s slow-motion disaster.

The Impossible Standard That Doomed Beck Before He Started

Let me paint you a picture of what Tim Beck inherited at Coastal Carolina.

Jamey Chadwell’s final act (2019-2022):

  • 31-6 record over three seasons
  • 2020: 11-1, ranked #9 in AP poll, Sun Belt champions
  • 2020 AP Coach of the Year (first Sun Belt coach ever)
  • Multiple wins over ranked opponents
  • Created a national brand from nothing

Then Chadwell left for Liberty, and Beck walked into a program expecting miracles.

You know what’s fascinating about college football? Everyone talks about “maintaining excellence” as if it were a simple math equation. Keep the same recruits, run similar plays, and success automatically continues.

But here’s what the data shows about Beck’s “successful” start:

Year 1 (2023): 8-5, Hawaii Bowl win
Everyone celebrated. “Great hire! Smooth transition!”

Year 2 (2024): 6-7, blown out 15-44 in Myrtle Beach Bowl
Suddenly, the cracks became canyons.

The 2024 Numbers That Reveal Everything

Want to know why Beck’s seat is getting warm? Look at these statistics:

Offensive production:

  • 374.5 total yards per game
  • 29.4 points per game
  • 54.5% completion rate

Defensive struggles:

  • 414.6 yards allowed per game
  • 31.6 points allowed per game
  • Gave up 411 total points in 13 games

Here’s the math that should terrify Coastal fans: They scored 382 points and allowed 411. That’s a -29 point differential for the season.

But wait—the marketing department has some shiny distractions:

  • “Led Sun Belt in rushing offense!”
  • “Kade Hensley is perfect on extra points!”

You know what they won’t mention? They got blown out 44-15 in their bowl game. When the lights were brightest and the program needed to prove it belonged, they got embarrassed on national television.

The Pattern That Shows Beck Can’t Close

Here’s what makes Beck’s situation so dangerous: He’s consistent in all the wrong ways.

Look at the 2024 losses:

  • Virginia: Lost 24-43
  • James Madison: Lost 7-39
  • Louisiana: Lost 24-34
  • Troy: Lost 24-38
  • Marshall: Lost 19-31
  • Georgia Southern: Lost 6-26
  • UTSA (Bowl): Lost 15-44

See the pattern? Beck’s teams don’t just lose—they get dominated when it matters most.

In their six wins, they averaged 40.7 points per game.
In their seven losses, they averaged 17.1 points per game.

That’s not competitive inconsistency. That’s a coaching staff that has no answers when opponents make adjustments.

The Roster Explosion That Screams Panic

You want to know how desperate Beck’s situation really is?

He brought in 61 new players for 2025.

Read that again: Sixty-one. New. Players.

That’s not roster management—that’s roster panic.

When a coach replaces more than half his team after two seasons, it means one of two things:

  1. The previous players couldn’t execute his system
  2. His system doesn’t work with college players

Either way, it’s an admission that what he’s been doing isn’t working.

The Quarterback Nightmare That Nobody Mentions

Here’s the part that should scare Coastal fans the most: Beck has no idea who his quarterback is.

2024 starter Ethan Vasko’s numbers:

  • 2,120 passing yards
  • 14 TDs, 8 INTs
  • 54.6% completion rate

Those aren’t terrible numbers. But Vasko’s not on the 2025 roster.

Current options for 2025:

  • Tad Hudson: 1 start in 2024 (173 yards, 65.4% completion)
  • Multiple transfers with zero starting experience
  • Freshmen who’ve never seen college defenses

Beck is entering Year 3 with a quarterback room full of question marks. That’s not building a program—that’s gambling with one.

The Schedule Reality That Changes Everything

Want to know when Beck’s seat goes from warm to molten? Look at the 2025 schedule:

Season opener: @ Virginia (ACC)

Let me paint you a picture: You have 61 new players learning new systems, an unproven quarterback, and you’re starting the season on the road against a Power 5 opponent.

Additional Power 5 test: @ South Carolina (SEC)

If Coastal gets blown out in both games—and based on their 2024 bowl performance, that’s likely—the “Tim Beck experiment” narrative shifts to “Tim Beck failure” overnight.

Key Sun Belt games:

  • @ Old Dominion
  • @ Appalachian State
  • vs James Madison
  • vs Georgia State

Bowl eligibility requires 6 wins. I count maybe 4-5 realistic victories on this schedule, and that assumes everything goes perfectly.

The Million-Dollar Question Nobody’s Asking

Here’s my favorite part of this whole situation.

Coastal Carolina is paying Tim Beck $1.05 million annually to deliver results that are trending downward from his predecessor’s peak.

Chadwell’s final three seasons: 31-6 (.838 winning percentage)
Beck’s first two seasons: 14-12 (.538 winning percentage)

You’re paying premium money for a 300-point worse performance. That’s not value—that’s institutional malpractice.

The Defensive Coordinator Shuffle That Reveals Desperation

Beck fired his defensive coordinator after 2024 and hired Jeremiah Johnson from Louisiana Tech.

On paper, this looks smart. Johnson’s 2024 La Tech defense ranked 12th nationally in total defense.

But here’s what they won’t tell you: When coaches start firing coordinators after two seasons, it usually means they’re running out of scapegoats before the administration starts looking at them.

The Truth About Following Legends

You know what’s brutal about college football?

Programs hire coaches to maintain previous success, then act surprised when maintaining success proves harder than creating it.

Chadwell built Coastal Carolina’s identity from scratch. He had complete buy-in because players knew he was building something special.

Beck inherited that identity and is now trying to rebuild it with 61 new players who never experienced the original magic.

That’s not maintaining excellence—that’s starting over while everyone expects you to pick up where someone else left off.

The Prediction Nobody’s Making

Here’s what’s going to happen, and you can bookmark this prediction:

Early season (0-2 start likely): Virginia and potentially another opponent expose the roster turnover. Beck starts making excuses about “building culture” and “installing systems.”

Mid-season crisis: Local media starts asking questions about the direction of the program. The 61 new players struggle with consistency and execution.

Late-season reckoning: Coastal misses bowl eligibility for the first time since 2018. Administration starts “evaluating the program’s direction.”

By December, Tim Beck will be updating his resume.

The Hot Seat Rating That Tells the Real Story

Here’s the thing about hot seat pressure: It’s not always about obvious failure.

Sometimes it’s about expensive coaches delivering cheaper results while everyone pretends the trajectory isn’t obvious.

Beck isn’t failing spectacularly enough to generate headlines. He’s failing quietly, expensively, and in ways that make success feel perpetually just out of reach.

Chadwell made Coastal Carolina nationally relevant.

Beck is making them regionally mediocre.

The million-dollar question: How long does a program wait for someone to recapture magic they didn’t create?

The Bottom Line

While everyone watches the obvious hot seats at major programs, the most expensive coaching mistake in the Sun Belt is happening in plain sight.

Tim Beck isn’t the worst coach in college football. He’s something worse—he’s the coach who followed greatness and made it look easy.

61 new players won’t fix scheme problems.

Firing coordinators won’t fix leadership issues.

Paying coaches more won’t fix cultural decline.

Mark this prediction: By next December, Coastal Carolina will be looking for their fifth head coach in program history.

The only question is whether they’ll act fast enough to prevent the program from sliding back into complete irrelevance.

Hot Seat Temperature: Expensive and rising. When you’re paying million-dollar salaries for declining results, patience runs out faster than people expect.

Want to know which other “under the radar” coaches are about to be on the hot seat?

I track the real hot seats (not just the obvious ones) every Friday in my free newsletter.

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The Hottest Coaching Seat in College Football Is Hiding in Plain Sight

Mark Haines on August 5, 2025

While everyone obsesses over Lincoln Riley and other big-name coaches, the most dangerous hot seat in America belongs to a guy most fans have never heard of.

His name is Ricky Rahne. He coaches at Old Dominion. And he’s about to become the first major firing of the 2025 season.

Here’s why nobody sees it coming.

The Trucking Company Problem That Started Everything

When people hear “Old Dominion,” they think of shipping trucks, not football helmets.

That’s not a joke—that’s the exact problem Rahne was hired to solve in 2020.

ODU’s mandate was crystal clear: Raise the profile of Old Dominion University so it’s better recognized than the freight company with the same name. Make people think “football program” before “logistics company.”

Four years later, Reddit threads still joke about thinking of trucking more than touchdowns when they hear “Old Dominion.”

Mission failed.

The Pattern That Reveals Everything

Here’s what makes Rahne’s situation so dangerous: He’s not obviously terrible.

His 2024 season looked respectable on paper:

  • 5-7 record
  • Led the nation in red zone offense (95%)
  • 14th nationally in rushing offense
  • Sophomore quarterback showing promise

But dig deeper into those losses:

  • Coastal Carolina: Lost 45-37
  • Marshall: Lost 42-35
  • James Madison: Lost 35-32

See the pattern? Rahne consistently puts his team in a position to win, then finds creative ways to lose.

That’s not bad luck. That’s a coaching problem.

The Close-Loss Curse That’s Worse Than Blowouts

You know what’s more damaging than getting blown out? Losing winnable games.

When you get destroyed 45-10, everyone understands you’re rebuilding. When you lose 35-32, it means you had the talent to win but couldn’t execute when it mattered.

Rahne’s entire tenure reads like a masterclass in snatching defeat from the jaws of victory:

2024 specifics that hurt:

  • Turnover margin: -3 (gave away 20, took 17)
  • Record in one-score games: Consistently poor
  • Fourth quarter collapses: Multiple instances

The quarterback numbers tell the story: Colton Joseph threw for 1,627 yards with 11 TDs and 647 rushing yards with 11 rushing TDs. Those are impressive numbers. But he completed just 59.9% of his passes with 5 interceptions.

Translation: Talented enough to make plays, not refined enough to avoid mistakes when pressure mounts.

The 2025 Schedule That Will Expose Everything

If you want to know why Rahne’s seat is about to catch fire, look at how 2025 starts:

September schedule:

  • @ Indiana (Big Ten)
  • vs N.C. Central
  • @ Virginia Tech (ACC)

Let me paint you a picture: You have an inexperienced receiving corps (losing 1,342 receiving yards from departures), an unproven secondary (three leading interceptors graduated), and a pattern of fourth-quarter mistakes.

Now you’re asking this team to open at Indiana and travel to Virginia Tech in the first three weeks.

If ODU starts 0-2 with blowout losses, Rahne goes from “under the radar” to “trending on Twitter” overnight.

The Roster Disaster Nobody’s Discussing

Want to know how bad ODU’s talent drain is?

Key departures after 2024:

  • Aaron Young: 887 rushing yards, 8 TDs
  • Isiah Paige: 819 receiving yards
  • Pat Conroy: 523 receiving yards, 5 TDs

Combined production lost: 2,229 yards and 16 touchdowns

Key returning players with significant experience:

  • Devin Roche: 43 carries, 274 yards
  • Na’eem Abdul-Rahim Gladding: 2 catches, 18 yards

Combined returning production: 292 yards

They’re replacing 2,229 yards of offense with players who produced 292 yards. That’s not roster turnover—that’s roster evaporation.

The Defensive Time Bomb Nobody Mentions

Everyone focuses on ODU’s offensive losses, but the defensive departures might be worse.

Gone: Jahron Manning, Angelo Rankin Jr., and Will Jones II—the three players who led the team with 3 interceptions each.

Remaining secondary experience: Largely unproven at FBS level.

2024 defensive numbers:

  • 410.4 yards allowed per game
  • 237.8 passing yards allowed per game
  • Already struggled against the pass with experienced players

Now they’re asking completely new faces to cover receivers in hostile environments at Indiana and Virginia Tech.

This is a recipe for explosive plays and blown coverages that will make highlight reels for all the wrong reasons.

The Sun Belt Reality That Changes Everything

Here’s why Rahne’s situation is more precarious than coaches in power conferences: There are no excuses in the Sun Belt.

You can’t blame recruiting disadvantages when you’re competing against similar programs. You can’t claim schedule strength when conference opponents have comparable resources.

2024 Sun Belt Conference record: 4-4
Bowl record under Rahne: 0-2

Translation: He can’t dominate his peer group, and he can’t win when it matters most.

In a weak conference, mediocrity stands out like a beacon. When James Madison and other Sun Belt programs are making noise nationally, ODU’s invisibility becomes more glaring.

The Prediction Nobody’s Making

Here’s what’s going to happen, and you can bookmark this:

Early season (0-3 or 1-2 start): Indiana and Virginia Tech expose the inexperienced skill players. The secondary gives up multiple explosive plays. Joseph forces throws, trying to keep pace.

Mid-season crisis: Local media starts asking questions about Rahne’s job security. National outlets pick up the story because it’s a straightforward narrative about a coach nobody was watching.

November reckoning: ODU administration realizes four years of “almost good enough” hasn’t moved the needle on national recognition. They pull the trigger to salvage recruiting.

By Halloween, Ricky Rahne will be at the top of every coaching hot seat ranking in America.

The Hot Seat Rating That Tells the Real Story

My proprietary analysis gives Rahne a 1.000 hot seat rating against weak competition over four years.

Translation: He’s perfectly meeting lowered expectations.

But here’s the problem—meeting lowered expectations isn’t success when your original mandate was to raise the program’s profile nationally.

ODU didn’t hire Rahne to go 5-7 and lose close games. They hired him to put Old Dominion football on the map.

Four years later, people still think of freight trucks before football when they hear the name.

The Bottom Line

While everyone watches the obvious hot seats at major programs, the most dangerous coaching situation in college football is flying completely under the radar.

Ricky Rahne isn’t failing spectacularly enough to generate headlines. He’s failing quietly, consistently, and in ways that make victory feel perpetually just out of reach.

The trucking company is still more famous than the football team.

The close losses keep piling up.

The roster talent is evaporating.

The schedule is about to expose every weakness.

Mark this prediction: By November, “Ricky Rahne” will be trending for all the wrong reasons. The hottest seat nobody was watching will suddenly become the firing that everyone saw coming.

The only question is whether ODU’s administration will act fast enough to salvage the 2026 recruiting class, or if they’ll wait until the program’s shortcomings become apparent for all the wrong reasons.

Hot Seat Temperature: Volcanic and rising, but nobody’s watching the eruption build.

Want to know which other “under the radar” coaches are about to be on the hot seat?

I track the real hot seats (not just the obvious ones) every Friday in my free newsletter.

Join thousands of readers who get the stories before they become headlines: Coaches Hot Seat Insider.

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Bob Chesney’s James Madison Experiment Is About To Get Very Real

Mark Haines on August 4, 2025

Most first-year coaching hires crash and burn within 24 months.

Bob Chesney’s .912 hot seat rating after Year One suggests he might be different. The former Holy Cross coach took James Madison from transition chaos to 9 wins and a bowl victory in 12 months. But here’s what nobody wants to admit: Year Two is when the real coaching begins.

The Numbers Don’t Lie About Chesney’s Instant Impact

Chesney inherited a program in flux and immediately delivered results that veteran FBS coaches spend years trying to achieve:

  • 407.6 yards per game on offense
  • 33.3 points scored per contest
  • 321.8 yards allowed defensively
  • 20.5 points surrendered per game
  • 9-4 overall record with a bowl victory

These aren’t empty statistics padded against weak competition. This represents systematic excellence across 13 games against Sun Belt opponents who had zero respect for a Holy Cross coordinator learning on the job.

The Offensive Balance That Separates Good Coaches From Great Ones

Chesney’s attack showcased the kind of dual-threat capability that keeps defensive coordinators awake at night.

The passing game generated 216.1 yards per contest with quarterback Alonza Barnett III throwing for 2,598 yards and 26 touchdowns. Meanwhile, the ground attack churned out 191.5 rushing yards per game behind a three-headed monster that created matchup nightmares:

  • George Pettaway: 980 yards, 6.0 yards per carry
  • Wayne Knight: 449 yards, 5.8 yards per attempt
  • Barnett III: 442 yards, 7 rushing touchdowns

This isn’t luck or inherited talent producing results.

The Defensive Transformation Nobody Saw Coming

Defense wins championships, and Chesney’s unit delivered championship-level performance immediately.

James Madison allowed just 115.4 rushing yards per game on 3.5 yards per carry. The pass rush generated 41 sacks while the secondary picked off 17 passes. Individual performances reflected the culture Chesney built from day one:

  • Eric O’Neill: 13 sacks, 1 interception return for touchdown
  • Terrence Spence: 5 interceptions, 1 returned for a score
  • Jacob Dobbs: 74 tackles despite missing games

But Here’s The Problem With First-Year Success Stories

College football history is littered with coaches who engineered impressive debut seasons only to collapse when opponents developed better game plans.

The difference between one-year wonders and sustained excellence lies in adaptability. Can Chesney evolve his schemes when opposing coordinators spend entire offseasons studying his tendencies? Will his recruiting relationships prove strong enough to reload talent when players graduate or transfer?

The Transfer Portal Test That Reveals Coaching Sophistication

Chesney’s offseason roster management provides the first glimpse into his strategic thinking.

Rather than panic about departures, he targeted specific needs with surgical precision. Quarterback Matthew Sluka brings experience behind Barnett. Wide receiver Isaiah Alston helps replace graduated targets Omarion Dollison and Taylor Thompson, who combined for 1,081 receiving yards and 12 touchdowns.

More importantly, Chesney retained his rushing attack’s core. Pettaway, Knight, and Jobi Malary all return, providing offensive consistency that first-year coaches rarely enjoy.

The Schedule Reality Check That Will Define Everything

Year Two brings a brutal test of Chesney’s tactical development.

Road games at Louisville and Liberty represent massive step-ups from 2024’s competition level. Home contests against Appalachian State and Georgia Southern feature established coaching staffs with proven Sun Belt success. Washington State’s addition brings Pac-12 talent to Harrisonburg.

These games matter because they remove the “weak competition” qualifier from Chesney’s hot seat rating.

The Sustainability Question That Haunts Every Coaching Success

Chesney’s .912 rating reflects exceptional first-year performance, but sustaining excellence demands different skills than creating it.

The foundation exists through balanced offensive production, stifling defensive improvement, and tactical sophistication that translates into tangible results. The 27-17 Boca Raton Bowl victory over Western Kentucky provided the capstone moment, demonstrating game-planning abilities that justify every bit of optimism surrounding his hire.

The Bottom Line: Validation Season Starts Now

Bob Chesney exceeded every reasonable expectation in Year One.

Year Two determines whether he represents James Madison’s long-term solution or simply benefited from perfect timing and favorable circumstances. His .912 hot seat rating provides breathing room most coaches never enjoy, but sustained success requires proving excellence was no accident.

The real measure of Chesney’s coaching ability begins when 2025 games start counting.

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How I Watched ‘Clueless Clay’ Fool Georgia Southern Into Overpaying for Mediocrity

Mark Haines on July 31, 2025

Clay Helton just got paid like a winner after three straight losing seasons at Georgia Southern.

The Contract That Defies Logic

Georgia Southern rewarded their 20-19 coach with a five-year extension worth $1 million annually through 2029.

The math doesn’t add up:

  • Three consecutive 6-7, 6-7, 8-5 seasons
  • Three bowl game losses in three appearances
  • A .513 winning percentage over 39 games
  • A hot seat rating of .859 against weak competition

Yet somehow, this earned Helton a raise from $805,000 to seven figures annually.

The USC Mirage That Fooled Georgia Southern

Helton’s resume looked impressive on paper, which explains why Eagles fans were excited about the hire.

At USC, he went 46-24 overall and won big games with other coaches’ recruits:

  • Rose Bowl victory over Penn State following the 2016 season
  • Pac-12 championship in 2017
  • Multiple wins over ranked opponents
  • Three conference championship game appearances

But USC fans nicknamed him “Clueless Clay” because they understood the truth: Helton inherited elite recruiting classes from Lane Kiffin, Steve Sarkisian, and Ed Orgeron. When forced to recruit his talent, everything collapsed.

His actual failures included:

  • Posted USC’s first losing season (5-7) since 2000 in 2018
  • USC’s 2020 recruiting class ranked dead last in the Pac-12
  • Lost elite California prospects like Bryce Young to Alabama and DJ Uiagalelei to Clemson
  • Recruiting fell from a consistent top-5 nationally to outside the top 50
  • Fired 14 assistant coaches in constant staff turnover
  • Fan attendance plummeted as apathy set in
  • Finally fired after a 1-1 start in 2021 following a 42-28 home loss to Stanford

Trojan fans celebrated his firing. Georgia Southern fans celebrated his hiring. Only one group understood what they were getting.

Why Mediocrity Became the New Excellence

Georgia Southern hasn’t won a bowl game since 2020.

Before Helton arrived in November 2021, the Eagles had missed bowls entirely in multiple seasons since moving to FBS in 2014. Three straight postseason appearances represent progress, even if the results sting.

The institutional memory matters more than the win-loss record. Georgia Southern values stability over ceiling, consistency over championship potential.

The 2024 Numbers That Justified Everything

The Eagles finally had their breakthrough season.

Georgia Southern went 8-5 overall and 6-2 in Sun Belt play, their best record since 2020. They averaged 28.0 points per game while allowing 33.0—hardly dominant but sufficient for consistent competitiveness.

Key statistical achievements included:

  • JC French: 2,831 passing yards, 65.6% completion rate
  • Balanced receiving attack with three 590+ yard receivers
  • 21 takeaways on defense despite allowing big numbers
  • 4-2 home record, 4-2 road record

The New Orleans Bowl loss to Sam Houston (26-31) stung, but reaching three straight bowls had never happened in program history.

The Pattern Recognition Problem Nobody Wants to Discuss

Three years of data reveal troubling consistency.

Helton’s Georgia Southern tenure follows an identical script each season:

  • Start with high hopes and roster optimism
  • Compete respectably through the regular season
  • Reach a bowl game with 6-7 wins
  • Lose the postseason game convincingly
  • Celebrate the “progress” while ignoring the ceiling

His overall bowl record stands at 2-6 between USC and Georgia Southern. The pattern suggests teams that peak during the regular season but lack the extra gear required for postseason success.

The Quarterback Development Success Story

French’s emergence validates Helton’s offensive system.

The redshirt junior completed his first full season as a starter by distributing the ball effectively to Josh Dallas (614 yards, 6 TD), Dalen Cobb (599 yards, 4 TD), and Derwin Burgess Jr. (659 yards, 3 TD).

French added 239 rushing yards and accounted for 19 total touchdowns, providing the dual-threat capability that makes Helton’s offense functional against Sun Belt competition.

The Defensive Reality Check

The Eagles allowed 428.6 yards per game in 2024.

Breaking down the defensive struggles:

  • 258.6 passing yards allowed per game
  • 170.0 rushing yards allowed per game
  • 33.0 points allowed per game
  • Massive differences between home/road performance

Leading tackler Marques Watson-Trent (120 tackles) graduated, along with most of the linebacker corps. Replacing that production requires either internal development or transfer portal success, both of which are uncertain propositions.

The Schedule Reality That Changes Everything

2025 won’t provide mercy for continued development.

The non-conference slate opens with road trips to Fresno State (August 30) and USC (September 6). These aren’t developmental opportunities—they’re potential blowouts that could destroy confidence before Sun Belt play begins.

Conference games include dangerous road trips to James Madison and Appalachian State, traditional powers with more resources and recent success.

Bowl eligibility requires six wins, a target that appeared routine after 8-5 but remains challenging given roster turnover and schedule difficulty.

The Coaching Reality Check Nobody Discusses

Helton’s actual coaching ability remains questionable.

At USC, he inherited talent recruited by previous coaches—Lane Kiffin, Steve Sarkisian, and Ed Orgeron did the heavy lifting on roster construction. When forced to recruit his players, the program collapsed.

The pattern at Georgia Southern suggests similar limitations. His teams consistently compete but rarely dominate. They reach bowls but lose them. The 20-19 overall record reflects adequate program management rather than exceptional coaching ability.

But here’s the key difference: Georgia Southern’s expectations align with Helton’s ceiling. USC demanded national championships. Georgia Southern celebrates bowl appearances.

The Million-Dollar Investment That Changed the Conversation

The contract extension indicates administrative satisfaction with baseline competency.

Georgia Southern’s athletic department believes in gradual improvement over dramatic change. The deal creates pressure to achieve more than adequacy, particularly given the salary increase and length of commitment.

The financial commitment suggests institutional patience and long-term thinking rather than championship expectations.

The Hot Seat Temperature: Artificially Cooled

Helton’s .859 rating reflects the gap between external expectations and internal reality.

The “weak competition” qualifier suggests that even modest goals require maximum effort to achieve. But context matters more than perception for program evaluation.

Georgia Southern’s recent history includes multiple coaching changes, inconsistent recruiting, and declining fan interest. Helton has stabilized the program while establishing baseline competency.

The 2025 Verdict: Prove the Investment or Accept the Ceiling

Year four becomes crucial for demonstrating that stability translates to sustainable success.

French returns at quarterback with most receiving targets intact. The secondary offers experience through Chance Gamble (48 tackles, 3 INT) and Tracy Hill Jr. (36 tackles, 2 INT).

Success requires bowl eligibility plus competitive games against quality opponents. Helton needs to prove Georgia Southern can win games it’s supposed to win while occasionally stealing victories against superior competition.

The contract extension provides job security but increases performance expectations.

The Bottom Line: Mediocrity Never Felt So Expensive

Clay Helton’s job security isn’t in question—his ceiling is.

Georgia Southern invested in stability over potential upheaval. Whether that represents appropriate expectations or limited ambition depends on maximizing returning talent and roster improvements.

The foundation exists for the program’s best season under Helton, but the schedule demands more than hoping for adequacy.

Hot Seat Temperature: Contractually protected. The million-dollar investment changed the conversation from job security to championship expectations—a pressure Helton has never handled successfully.

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