David Braun’s honeymoon at Northwestern is officially over.
Following the euphoria of an 8-5 debut campaign in 2023, which culminated in a victory in the Las Vegas Bowl, the Wildcats stumbled to a disappointing 4-8 record in 2024. Now, with a brutal Big Ten schedule ahead and significant roster changes, this season will determine whether Northwestern can recapture that magic or if 2023 was just a beautiful mirage.
The Preston Stone Gamble
Here’s what you need to know about Northwestern’s most significant offseason move.
SMU transfer quarterback Preston Stone isn’t just another portal addition—he’s potentially the difference between relevance and irrelevance for this program. Stone brings credentials that recent Northwestern quarterbacks haven’t possessed:
Proven winner: 13-3 as a starter at SMU
Elite 2023 production: 3,197 yards, 28 touchdowns, just 6 interceptions
National rankings: 26th in passing yards, 11th in touchdown passes
Compare that to Northwestern’s 2024 disaster, where the team ranked 111th nationally in passing offense with just seven passing touchdowns all season.
Preston Stone’s SMU Stats:
Record as Starter: 13–3
2023 National Rankings:
26th in passing yards
11th in passing TDs
13th in passer rating
But here’s the pattern that should make Northwestern fans optimistic: every successful Wildcats season since Clayton Thorson graduated in 2018 has featured a veteran graduate transfer quarterback. Peyton Ramsey (2020) and Ben Bryant (2023) both brought extensive experience and led Northwestern to winning records.
Stone fits this mold perfectly.
Offensive Line Overhaul
The foundation was crumbling, so Northwestern rebuilt it from the ground up.
Last season’s offensive line was a disaster—23 sacks allowed, 3.3 yards per carry, constant pressure that made every quarterback look terrible. But the Wildcats attacked this weakness aggressively through the transfer portal:
Xavior Gray (Liberty): 6-8, 340-pound right tackle who could be the most important addition
Zach Beernsten (South Dakota State): Experienced right guard
Multiple depth additions: Including an FCS All-American
Returning experience: Six linemen who played 100+ snaps return
The addition of assistant offensive line coach Ryan Olson, who brings championship pedigree from South Dakota State, adds another layer of credibility to this unit’s potential turnaround.
If this line can protect Stone and open running lanes, Northwestern’s offense could look completely different.
The Defensive Reality Check
Northwestern’s defense has talent, but glaring holes remain.
What’s Working:
Aidan Hubbard: Team-leading 6.0 sacks return for another year
Experienced pass rush: DE Anto Saka and others with multiple years in the system
Veteran leadership: Multiple senior starters across the front seven
What’s Broken:
Secondary losses: The Top two interception leaders from 2024 are gone
Pass defense vulnerability: Allowed 222.8 yards per game through the air (52nd nationally)
Explosive play problems: Too many big plays surrendered, especially late in games
Safety Damon Walters returns as the anchor, but he’ll need to dramatically increase his ball production to replace what was lost.
The bigger concern? Northwestern faces an expanded Big Ten loaded with elite passing attacks—Oregon, USC, Michigan, Penn State all possess the firepower to exploit these defensive weaknesses.
Schedule Reality
This slate is brutal.
Northwestern’s 2025 schedule ranks among the toughest in the Big Ten, featuring road games at Penn State, Nebraska, USC, and Illinois, while hosting Oregon, UCLA, Michigan, and Minnesota. Here’s the breakdown:
Likely Wins:
Western Illinois (FCS)
ULM (Group of Five)
Toss-ups:
Tulane (road opener—dangerous)
Purdue (home)
UCLA (home)
Heavy Underdogs:
Oregon (home)
Michigan (home)
Penn State (road)
USC (road)
Illinois (road—rivalry game)
Most realistic projections place Northwestern in the 4-6 win range, with bowl eligibility requiring a combination of upsets and avoiding significant losses.
The season opener at Tulane presents immediate danger—the Green Wave will feature former Northwestern quarterback Brendan Sullivan and a recruit who decommitted from the Wildcats.
Braun’s Make-or-Break Moment
This is where Braun proves he’s the real deal.
David Braun entered 2023 as an interim coach managing a crisis and exceeded every expectation. But 2024’s regression has put him in an uncomfortable spotlight. While not on the hot seat, national coverage describes his status as “warm,” meaning another disappointing season could create real pressure.
Here’s what’s working in Braun’s favor:
Portal savvy: Strategic additions at quarterback and offensive line show improved recruiting
Player buy-in: “You’ve got a leadership group on this football team that has kind of taken the bull by the horns and said, ‘What we experienced last year, we’re not going to let it happen again,'” Braun said
Infrastructure improvements: Better NIL support and transfer portal processes
But the clock is ticking. Northwestern has exhibited a pattern of volatility, alternating between division titles and bowl wins (2018, 2020, 2023) and seasons with three or fewer wins (2019, 2021, 2022, 2024).
Braun needs to prove 2023 wasn’t a fluke.
The Verdict
Northwestern is better than last year, but that’s not saying much.
This team has addressed its biggest weaknesses through strategic portal additions, particularly at quarterback and offensive line. Preston Stone gives them the veteran presence that has historically led to success in Evanston.
But the schedule is unforgiving, the defense has question marks, and the margin for error remains razor-thin.
Realistic expectations: 5-7 record, just missing bowl eligibility.
Best-case scenario: 6-6 or 7-5 with Stone exceeding expectations and the offensive line gelling quickly.
Worst-case scenario: Another 4-8 disaster that puts real heat on Braun
The 2025 season will ultimately determine whether David Braun can build sustainable success at Northwestern or if his remarkable 2023 debut was simply a flash in the bottle.
For a program that desperately needs stability before moving into its new stadium in 2026, the stakes couldn’t be higher.
The Next Billion Dollar Game
College football isn’t just a sport anymore—it’s a high-stakes market where information asymmetry separates winners from losers. While the average fan sees only what happens between the sidelines, real insiders trade on the hidden dynamics reshaping programs from the inside out.
Our team has embedded with the power brokers who run this game. From the coaching carousel to NIL deals to transfer portal strategies, we’ve mapped the entire ecosystem with the kind of obsessive detail that would make a hedge fund analyst blush.
Why subscribe? Because in markets this inefficient, information creates alpha. Our subscribers knew which coaches were dead men walking months before the mainstream media caught on. They understood which programs were quietly transforming their recruiting apparatuses while competitors slept.
The smart money is already positioning for 2025. Are you?
Click below—it’s free—and join the small group of people who understand the real value of college football’s new economy.
After three seasons at USC, the once-celebrated coach who shocked college football by leaving Oklahoma now faces the most pressure of his career. His Trojans have regressed each year since an impressive 11-3 debut in 2022, stumbling to 8-5 in 2023 and a disappointing 7-6 in 2024. Meanwhile, USC has invested over $500 million in football infrastructure alone, making Riley’s tenure a fascinating case study in whether unlimited resources can overcome strategic missteps.
The 2025 season represents a crossroads. USC has made dramatic changes: hiring a $1 million general manager from Notre Dame, assembling the nation’s #1 recruiting class for 2026, and implementing the most comprehensive program overhaul since the Pete Carroll era. However, questions persist about whether these moves can address the fundamental issues that have plagued Riley’s tenure.
FanDuel has set USC’s win total at 7.5 games, exactly the same as the team achieved in 2024.
This conservative projection reflects both skepticism about the program’s immediate Big Ten contention and acknowledgment of its recent trajectory. Yet beneath these modest expectations lies a transformation that could finally break the cyclical pattern of hope and disappointment that has defined USC football for the better part of a decade.
The Notre Dame Heist That Changed Everything
Chad Bowden never planned to leave South Bend.
The Notre Dame general manager had just helped construct a roster that reached the national championship game. He was earning $300,000 annually in a role he’d built from the ground up, working alongside Coach Marcus Freeman in a program that was trending upward. Then USC called with an offer that tripled his salary and promised him “the greatest job in America.”
“USC, for me, it meant more to me,” Bowden explained during his introductory press conference. “When I was a kid, I watched Matt Leinart, Reggie Bush. That was my team. USC kind of held something in my heart.”
The hiring of Bowden for $1 million annually represents arguably the most impactful off-field acquisition in college football this offseason.
His track record speaks volumes:
Four unanimously ranked Top 12 recruiting classes at Notre Dame (2022-2025)
Named 2024 FootballScoop Player Personnel Director of the Year
Helped Notre Dame reach #15 in transfer portal rankings in 2024
Built championship-caliber rosters despite Notre Dame’s academic restrictions
The immediate impact has been staggering. USC currently holds the #1 ranking in the 2026 recruiting class according to multiple services, with 27 total commitments, including double-digit ESPN 300 prospects. This represents a dramatic philosophical shift from the transfer portal-heavy approach that defined Riley’s first three seasons.
The California-First Strategy
Bowden’s blueprint centers on a simple premise: stop letting elite California talent leave the state.
“I think the ’26 class is the best class that California has had in two decades,” Bowden told reporters. “If you look through it, and you really study what those classes look like, at least the top, probably 30, 40 players in the state.”
The numbers tell the story:
USC’s 2026 class: 63% from California
USC’s 2025 class: Just 23% from California
Successful programs for comparison: Texas (60% in-state), Georgia (75% in-state)
“We’re going to major in high school recruiting and minor in the portal,” Bowden declared. “We’re not just recruiting the kids, we’re recruiting families…And we’re going to keep the best players in California home.”
This approach represents a philosophical shift from Riley’s first three seasons, during which USC signed 65 transfers in four years, resulting in short-term talent infusions but limiting long-term depth and cultural cohesion.
The organizational infrastructure supporting Bowden includes proven talent evaluators from Wisconsin and Illinois who helped build successful programs at their previous stops.
The D’Anton Lynn Defensive Revolution
USC’s defense was a national embarrassment in 2023.
The unit allowed 34.4 points per game, ranking among the worst in Power Five football. Opponents completed 64% of passes while averaging 432.8 total yards per game. The run defense surrendered 186.5 yards per game, making USC a target for every power-running offense on the schedule.
Then D’Anton Lynn arrived from UCLA with a simple message: “Don’t give anybody anything.”
The transformation under Lynn represents one of the most dramatic single-season defensive turnarounds in college football history.
The Numbers Don’t Lie
The statistical improvement from 2023 to 2024 was staggering:
Points Allowed Per Game:
2023: 34.4 (among worst in Power Five)
2024: 24.1 (middle of Big Ten pack)
Improvement: Over 10 points per game
Total Defense:
2023: 432.8 yards per game (116th nationally)
2024: 365.7 yards per game (65th nationally)
Improvement: 67 yards per game
Run Defense:
2023: 186.5 yards per game (116th nationally)
2024: 130.1 yards per game (43rd nationally)
Improvement: 56 yards per game
Lynn, who reportedly earns approximately $2 million annually, making him the sixth-highest paid defensive coordinator nationally, was retained after Penn State attempted to poach him for their defensive coordinator opening.
Key Takeaways
Passing Defense: While passing yards allowed per game improved under Lynn, the biggest leap was in run defense and overall efficiency.
Points Allowed: D’Anton Lynn’s 2024 defense allowed over 10 fewer points per game than Grinch’s unit and was also a marked improvement over Orlando’s era.
Total Defense: Under Lynn, USC allowed nearly 75 fewer yards per game than under Grinch, and almost 70 fewer than under Orlando.
Rushing Defense: Lynn’s unit was especially improved against the run, cutting more than 50 yards per game off Grinch’s average and 30 off Orlando’s.
National Ranking: USC’s national defensive rank improved dramatically under Lynn, jumping from 119th (Grinch) to 68th, the best since Orlando.
USC’s defense under D’Anton Lynn in 2024 showed significant statistical and ranking improvements compared to both the Todd Orlando and Alex Grinch eras. The Trojans went from one of the nation’s worst Power Four defenses to a respectable, mid-tier Big Ten unit—especially in points allowed and run defense—under Lynn’s leadership.
Cultural Transformation Beyond Statistics
The changes extended far beyond raw numbers.
Through two games early in 2024, USC’s defense was penalized just once—a dramatic improvement in discipline that reflected Lynn’s emphasis on fundamentals and accountability. Defensive end Jamil Muhammad captured the new mentality: “That’s one of coach Lynn’s biggest messages as well as the whole defensive staff, ‘Don’t give anybody anything. Whatever they get, that has to be them earning it.'”
“The tackling was getting better, it wasn’t perfect, there was some misses that we need to correct,” Lynn said after USC’s victory over LSU. “It’s something we have been emphasizing with all positional groups.”
Entering his second season, Lynn benefits from increased talent and depth that could elevate USC’s defense from respectable to elite.
The defensive line now features six players weighing over 300 pounds compared to just two in 2024. The secondary, bolstered by five-star early enrollee RJ Sermons and returning talent like safety Kamari Ramsey, represents a unit with significant upside.
The linebacker corps gained former NFL defensive coordinator Rob Ryan as position coach, bringing both credibility and scheme sophistication to a unit rebuilding after losing key contributors Easton Mascarenas-Arnold and Mason Cobb.
The Quarterback Gamble: Maiava’s Make-or-Break Moment
Jayden Maiava wasn’t supposed to be USC’s starting quarterback in 2024.
The UNLV transfer arrived as insurance behind Miller Moss, expected to learn the system and compete for future opportunities. Then USC stumbled to 4-5, Moss was benched, and Maiava suddenly found himself tasked with trying to salvage the season.
He delivered when it mattered most.
The Late-Season Surge
Maiava’s numbers in his final four starts tell a story of both promise and development:
Signature moment: Game-winning touchdown pass to Ja’Kobi Lane vs. UCLA
“I have a lot of confidence in Jayden,” Riley said during December’s early signing period. “He played well, led us to two big victories and I thought really put us in great position.”
The UCLA victory showcased Maiava’s dual-threat capability and clutch gene. Down late in the fourth quarter, he delivered a “Caleb Williams-esque play,” reversing field and slipping a tackle to find Lane in the back corner of the end zone for the game-winning score.
The Competition and Development
Maiava enters 2025 as the heavy favorite to start despite competition from five-star freshman Husan Longstreet.
Riley praised Maiava’s development during spring practice: “He’s not one that you worry about getting complacent or not wanting to work on the areas he knows he needs to attack and put in the necessary time and effort. For him, it’s sometimes more like don’t be so hard on yourself.”
The quarterback room represents both USC’s biggest question mark and greatest opportunity for transformation.
Maiava’s mobility adds a dimension that was missing during the Moss era. His ability to extend plays and create with his legs provides Riley with additional options in an offense that struggled with balance throughout the 2024 season.
Riley’s Strategic Crossroads: Pass-Happy Tendencies vs. Balanced Success
Lincoln Riley built his reputation on offensive innovation and balance.
His Oklahoma teams consistently ranked among the nation’s leaders in both passing and rushing efficiency. The counter-run scheme was a staple of those Sooner offenses, providing the foundation for explosive passing games by establishing physical dominance and maintaining offensive balance.
Then he arrived at USC, and something changed.
The Troubling Pass-First Trend
Riley’s recent tendencies toward pass-heavy play-calling represent a concerning departure from his most successful approach:
Called 50+ passes in three separate games during 2024 (never did this at Oklahoma)
USC went 0-3 in games where quarterbacks threw 50+ times
Against Michigan: 51 passes vs. 21 rushes
Against Washington: 29 passes vs. 8 runs in first half alone
This trend contradicts Riley’s earlier success at Oklahoma, where balanced attacks featured elite quarterback play supported by dominant rushing games. The departure of proven runners and Riley’s apparent lack of trust in USC’s ground game led to a one-dimensional approach, which Big Ten defenses effectively exploited.
“I don’t think there’s like one area of our program where like we’re so far away from being like great or championship caliber,” Riley said in a recent interview. “What I just see is like every part of it just got to continue to get a little bit better.”
This assessment reflects confidence but also acknowledgment that USC’s issues span multiple areas rather than requiring wholesale changes.
The hiring of new position coaches—including tight ends coach Chad Savage from Colorado State and offensive line coach Zach Hanson—suggests efforts to address scheme and development issues. Whether these changes can restore the balanced, explosive offense that defined Riley’s reputation remains a central question for 2025.
The Offensive Line Vulnerability That Could Derail Everything
USC’s offensive line represents a ticking time bomb.
While the projected starting five appears capable, featuring returning starters Elijah Paige and Alani Noa alongside transfers J’Onre Reed (Syracuse) and DJ Wingfield (Purdue), depth remains a significant concern. Tobias Raymond emerged as a reliable option at right tackle, but the quality of backup linemen remains questionable.
If injuries strike the starting unit, USC may lack the depth necessary to maintain Big Ten-level protection and run blocking.
This vulnerability reflects years of under-recruitment and development in the trenches, an issue that Bowden’s recruiting emphasis aims to address but won’t fully resolve until future recruiting classes arrive on campus.
The receiving corps provides reason for optimism despite portal losses:
Ja’Kobi Lane returns after catching 48 passes for 721 yards and 7 TDs from Maiava
Makai Lemon provides veteran leadership and reliable production
Depth chart features talented underclassmen ready for expanded roles
Lane’s spectacular spring practice performances, including a viral one-handed catch, suggest continued growth. “The spectacular plays that he makes on the field it’s no surprise,” Maiava said. “That’s who Ja’Kobi is, he’s going to go up and make those plays every time the ball comes his way.”
The Big Ten Gauntlet: Schedule Reality Check
USC’s 2025 schedule tells two different stories.
The non-conference portion opens with games against Missouri State (August 30) and Georgia Southern (September 6), which should provide early momentum and confidence-building opportunities. These matchups provide Riley and his staff with opportunities to build chemistry and establish an offensive rhythm before facing conference competition.
Then the Big Ten reality arrives.
The Crucial Crossroads Games
USC faces several defining matchups that will likely determine the season’s trajectory:
At Home:
Michigan (rebuilding under new leadership after coaching change)
UCLA (crosstown rivalry, winnable game)
Iowa (low-scoring, defensive battle)
On The Road:
Oregon at Autzen Stadium (hostile environment, championship-caliber opponent)
Notre Dame in South Bend (Riley is 1-2 vs. Fighting Irish)
Nebraska, Purdue, Illinois (potential trap games testing depth and focus)
The schedule’s structure reflects both opportunity and peril. USC avoids Ohio State and Penn State from the conference’s upper tier, creating a more manageable path to eight or nine wins. However, the program’s recent struggles in road conference games—going 0-3 outside California in Big Ten play during the 2024 season—highlight the challenge of competing consistently in a league that demands physical and mental toughness week after week.
Riley acknowledged the unique nature of USC’s Big Ten debut during a recent ESPN appearance: “We played in just an amazing number of one-score games, and it was kind of down to the last play of the games. I could probably coach 50 years and not have another season that that kind of winds up like that.”
Breaking the Trojan Emotional Rollercoaster
USC fans know this cycle by heart.
August arrives with renewed optimism fueled by recruiting victories and coaching changes. Early-season momentum builds against overmatched opponents, creating dreams of playoff contention. Then comes the devastating loss to elite competition, followed by bargaining for “statement wins” and eventual disappointment when the season slips away.
The 2025 season threatens to repeat this familiar pattern.
The Structural Changes That Could Break The Cycle
Yet there are legitimate reasons to believe this year might be different:
Organizational Infrastructure:
Professional front office led by a proven GM
Enhanced recruiting staff and evaluation systems
Modern NIL and roster management approach
Defensive Foundation:
Proven coordinator in Lynn with a track record of improvement
Significantly upgraded talent and depth
Cultural emphasis on physicality and accountability
Recruiting Momentum:
#1 ranked 2026 class with a focus on California dominance
Shift from portal dependence to sustainable high school recruiting
Elite prospects at positions of need (offensive line, secondary)
The challenge lies in translating these improvements into victories in November and December, when championships are decided and fan patience is at its greatest test. USC’s recent history of close losses (five games by a combined 16 points in 2024) suggests the program is closer to breakthrough success than its record indicates.
Converting moral victories into actual wins requires the mental toughness and depth that have been conspicuously absent in recent seasons.
The $500 Million Question: Investment vs. Returns
USC’s financial commitment to football excellence is staggering.
Beyond Riley’s $11.5 million annual compensation and Bowden’s $1 million salary, the program is constructing the $225 million Bloom Football Performance Center, while also completing a $315 million renovation of the Coliseum. This represents over half a billion dollars invested in football infrastructure alone.
The return on investment remains questionable.
Riley’s 26-14 record at USC, coupled with regression in each of his seasons since his 2022 debut, has generated skepticism about whether the financial commitment aligns with competitive results. The massive buyout—estimated between $80-90 million—provides Riley job security while intensifying pressure for tangible improvement.
Athletic Director Jen Cohen expressed confidence in her embattled coach: “Lincoln has the experience, right? He’s built and led championship teams before. So my focus with him is just investing and giving him, and not just him, but his entire coaching staff, his support staff that he has around him, every resource possible to get to the next level.”
2025 Projections: Three Realistic Scenarios
Best-Case Scenario: The Breakthrough (9-3)
If the defensive improvements continue, the offensive line stays healthy, and Maiava takes a significant step forward, USC could surprise skeptics with nine wins and legitimate bowl game aspirations.
This would require:
Victories in several “coin flip” games against middle-tier Big Ten opponents
Splitting marquee matchups against Michigan, Oregon, and Notre Dame
Sustained health along the offensive line
Maiava’s development into a consistent dual-threat quarterback
Most Likely Scenario: Modest Progress (7-5 to 8-4)
The 7.5-win projection reflects realistic expectations for a team still adapting to Big Ten physicality while integrating new personnel.
Key factors:
Continued defensive improvement under Lynn
Offensive line depth tested, but surviving
Maiava is providing competent but inconsistent quarterback play
Home-field advantage is proving decisive in close games
This range would represent modest progress but likely wouldn’t satisfy boosters or fans expecting more dramatic improvement given the program’s investment level.
Worst-Case Scenario: Continued Regression (6-6 or worse)
Injuries to the thin offensive line, continued defensive inconsistency, or struggles by the quarterback could leave USC fighting for bowl eligibility again.
This outcome would:
Almost certainly intensify pressure on Riley
Potentially accelerate discussions about program direction
Raise serious questions about the massive financial investment
The 2026 Vision: Championship Foundation or Recruiting Mirage?
The actual test of Bowden’s impact may not come until 2026.
USC’s current #1 recruiting class ranking includes elite prospects at positions of need, particularly along both lines of scrimmage and in the secondary. However, the program’s recent history of late decommitments—losing four five-star prospects in the final weeks of the 2025 cycle—serves as a cautionary reminder not to count commitments before signing day.
“I think the ’26 class is the best class that California has had in two decades,” Bowden told reporters, emphasizing the talent pool available to USC in their backyard.
The 2026 class features impact prospects who could transform USC’s championship potential:
Suppose this class holds together and develops as projected. In that case, USC will be positioned as a legitimate Big Ten and College Football Playoff contender for the first time since the Pete Carroll era.
The Verdict: Crossroads Season Arrives
The 2025 USC football season arrives at a unique crossroads.
The structural improvements—from Bowden’s hiring to enhanced recruiting infrastructure to defensive personnel upgrades—provide legitimate reasons for optimism that extend beyond the usual offseason hope. The shift toward sustainable roster construction, emphasis on California recruiting dominance, and cultural changes under Lynn represent the most comprehensive program overhaul in years.
Yet the challenges remain formidable.
An unforgiving Big Ten schedule tests depth at crucial positions where USC remains vulnerable. The weight of massive expectations, fueled by unprecedented financial investment, creates pressure that has derailed previous seasons. The familiar cycle of August optimism and midseason disappointment lurks as a possibility that could define Riley’s legacy.
As Cohen noted earlier about Riley’s proven track record, the 2025 season will ultimately determine whether her faith in the embattled coach is justified. With unprecedented resources, structural improvements, and talent upgrades in place, this represents Riley’s best—and perhaps final—opportunity to prove that USC’s $500 million investment will pay championship dividends.
For a fan base accustomed to the emotional rollercoaster of unfulfilled promises, 2025 offers both familiar risks and unprecedented reasons for hope. The infrastructure for sustained success is being built.
Whether it translates to victories in November and December—when championships are decided and legacies are forged—remains college football’s most compelling storyline as USC attempts to reclaim its place among the sport’s elite.
The Next Billion Dollar Game
College football isn’t just a sport anymore—it’s a high-stakes market where information asymmetry separates winners from losers. While the average fan sees only what happens between the sidelines, real insiders trade on the hidden dynamics reshaping programs from the inside out.
Our team has embedded with the power brokers who run this game. From the coaching carousel to NIL deals to transfer portal strategies, we’ve mapped the entire ecosystem with the kind of obsessive detail that would make a hedge fund analyst blush.
Why subscribe? Because in markets this inefficient, information creates alpha. Our subscribers knew which coaches were dead men walking months before the mainstream media caught on. They understood which programs were quietly transforming their recruiting apparatuses while competitors slept.
The smart money is already positioning for 2025. Are you?
Click below—it’s free—and join the small group of people who understand the real value of college football’s new economy.
Rutgers football is about to face its biggest test since Greg Schiano returned to Piscataway.
After back-to-back 7-6 seasons and consecutive bowl appearances for the first time since 2011-12, the Scarlet Knights have built something real. But 2025 isn’t about maintaining momentum anymore. It’s about proving they belong among the Big Ten elite when the schedule stops being friendly.
The Foundation Is Strong, But Now Comes The Real Test
Most people don’t understand Rutgers’ situation: the program has quietly become one of the most stable rebuilds in college football. While everyone was focused on flashier turnarounds, Schiano methodically constructed something sustainable.
Consider these facts:
Three NFL draft picks in 2025 (most since 2013)
Consecutive winning seasons for the first time in over a decade
Top-30 recruiting class with 10 four-star prospects
Contract extension through 2030, showing institutional commitment
The foundation isn’t just solid. It’s the strongest since the mid-2000s peak that put Rutgers on the national map.
But foundations don’t win games. Players do. The 2025 schedule is about to test every brick Schiano has carefully laid.
Finally: Quarterback Stability (Yes, Really)
For the first time in recent memory, Rutgers enters a season without quarterback uncertainty haunting every conversation.
Athan Kaliakmanis will be the starter for the second consecutive year. This might not sound revolutionary until you consider the program’s recent history at the position: seven years where no QB could complete a full season, followed by Gavin Wimsatt posting the lowest passer rating among Power conference quarterbacks.
The Minnesota transfer threw for 2,698 yards with 18 touchdowns against 12 interceptions in 2024. More importantly, he showed the clutch gene with memorable late-game drives, including that thriller against Illinois.
Schiano emphasized after spring practice that Kaliakmanis “had a full season working under Coach Ciarrocca” and now has the credibility to “be a quarterback/leader that we need him to be.”
Behind him, sophomore AJ Surace impressed in the spring game with 220 yards on 15-of-24 passing. The depth that killed previous seasons finally exists.
The Offensive Line: Four Anchors, One Question Mark
The offensive line returns four battle-tested starters who helped produce 376 points (most in Rutgers’ Big Ten era):
#65 LG Felter
#59 C G. Zilinskas
#69 RG Asamoah
#56 RT Needham
The challenge? Replacing NFL-bound left tackle Hollin Pierce.
Tyler Needham has shifted to left tackle, and Taj White has moved to right tackle during spring practices. The staff continues monitoring the transfer portal for additional depth, but the interior line showed resilience when Felter fell injured in 2024.
This unit has been through fire together. They know how to handle adversity.
The Running Game Revolution
Kyle Monangai is gone, taking his 1,279 rushing yards and 13 touchdowns to the Chicago Bears.
That might be a good thing: Rutgers overused Monangai in 2024, making the offense predictable and wearing down their best weapon. Other backs like Benjamin and Brown showed superior efficiency when given opportunities, but the staff stuck with the “feed the bell cow” mentality.
Andrew Rice of On the Banks expects a complete philosophical shift. FAU transfer CJ Campbell will likely lead a committee approach featuring:
Antoine Raymond (returning sophomore)
Edd Guerrier (showed flashes in spring game)
Terrell Mitchell (true freshman with big-play ability)
A balanced backfield could improve overall production while keeping everyone fresh for Big Ten battles.
Receiver Room Gets Much-Needed Star Power
The departure of top target Dymere Miller created an opportunity for dramatic change.
Enter North Texas transfer DT Sheffield, who posted 822 yards and six touchdowns in 2024. He provides the veteran production and leadership that this young group desperately needed.
But the real excitement comes from emerging young talent:
Vernon Allen III and Jourdin Houston combined for 143 yards in the spring game
Ian Strong returns from injury with renewed focus
KJ Duff continues developing into a reliable option
This position has been Rutgers’ Achilles heel for years. The pieces are finally in place for a breakthrough.
Defense Gets Complete Makeover
October’s four-game losing streak exposed defensive weaknesses that couldn’t be ignored. Allowing 33 points per game during that stretch cost Rutgers any shot at a special season.
Schiano’s response? Blow it up and start over.
New Leadership Structure
Co-defensive coordinators Robb Smith and Zach Sparber will replace departed coordinator Joe Harasymiak. Smith will call plays, bringing extensive experience and a track record of improvement. Sparber, who also coaches linebackers, is considered a rising star in the profession.
Transfer Portal Aggressive Approach
The defensive line received the most dramatic overhaul:
Eric O’Neill (13 sacks at James Madison, fourth-most nationally)
Doug Blue-Eli (run-stuffing tackle from USF)
Darold DeNgohe (interior pressure from James Madison)
Combined with returning veterans Jordan Walker and Keshon Griffin, this unit should generate significantly more disruption.
Secondary Rebuilds From Scratch
Four key contributors departed, but spring practices revealed promising depth:
Sophomores Bo Mascoe and Kaj Sanders emerged as reliable options
Four-star freshman Michael Clayton adds immediate talent
Recruiting Renaissance Continues
Schiano’s program building received another massive boost with a consensus top-30 recruiting class.
The numbers tell the story:
10 four-star recruits across multiple positions
Six defensive linemen addressing the biggest need
Four linebackers providing depth and competition
Three defensive backs for the secondary rebuilding
Linebacker Kamar Archie and offensive lineman Ja’Elyne Matthews headline a class that should provide immediate impact and future starting potential.
The geographic footprint reflects Schiano’s “State of Rutgers” philosophy, emphasizing New Jersey, New York, and Pennsylvania while strategically expanding into areas like Texas.
Schedule Reality: Welcome to Hell Week (Every Week)
Every bit of optimism about roster improvements crashes into the brutal reality of the 2025 schedule.
Non-conference games against Ohio, Miami of Ohio, and Norfolk State represent Schiano’s typical approach of building early momentum. He’s unbeaten in non-conference play since returning in 2020, and these three games must continue that streak.
But conference play? That’s where things get terrifying.
The Gauntlet Includes:
Oregon (road)
Ohio State (road)
Penn State (home)
Iowa (home)
Illinois (road)
Washington (road)
Minnesota (road)
Back-to-back road games against Minnesota and Washington will test depth and resilience. Even the “easier” road game at Purdue is uncertain with Purdue under new coaching.
The season opens Thursday, Aug. 28, against Ohio, continuing the trend of Thursday night season openers. Early betting lines have Rutgers as double-digit favorites, suggesting confidence in the non-conference sweep.
Coaching Security Provides Stability
Despite the challenging outlook, Schiano’s position remains completely secure.
His contract extension through 2030 and the program’s clear upward trajectory since 2020 provide stability even if 2025 proves difficult. National analysts note that Schiano has “steadily built the program to respectability in the Big Ten” and receives too little credit for his work.
The NFL pipeline continues strengthening recruiting credibility and program prestige. When recruits see former teammates succeeding at the next level, it validates the development process.
Keys to Survival (And Maybe Success)
Rutgers must approach 2025 with surgical precision in their preparation and execution.
Non-Conference Perfection Required: All three early games represent must-wins. Any slip-up eliminates bowl eligibility hopes before Big Ten play begins.
Identify Winnable Conference Games: Purdue and Maryland offer the most realistic paths to additional victories. Minnesota and Illinois represent upset potential if everything clicks.
Defensive Coordinator Chemistry: The Smith-Sparber tandem must quickly implement systems that maximize transfer talent while developing young players. The emphasis on rotation should prevent the fatigue-related dropoffs that plagued 2024.
Offensive Balance Finally Achieved: Establishing a more balanced attack takes pressure off the running game against stronger Big Ten defenses. Kaliakmanis’s continued development and emerging receiving threats could unlock explosive potential.
The Verdict: Foundation Testing Time
Projections suggest a 4-8 record, but that reflects schedule difficulty rather than program regression.
Bowl eligibility requires overachievement and likely at least one signature upset. However, Schiano’s foundation appears stronger than at any point since the mid-2000s peak.
Here’s what 2025 is really about: proving Rutgers can compete consistently against elite competition. Avoiding blowout losses and remaining competitive in most games demonstrates readiness for sustained success when future schedules prove more favorable.
Success Metrics Beyond Wins and Losses
The coaching staff’s aggressive approach to roster construction through recruiting and transfers shows a commitment to accelerating development rather than accepting mediocrity.
Competitive games against Oregon and Ohio State might prove more valuable than an extra victory against inferior competition. The schedule provides an opportunity to prove belonging among Big Ten elites, even if the record doesn’t immediately reflect that progress.
For Rutgers faithful, this is the year everything changes.
The program has reached its highest sustained level since joining the Big Ten. The next step requires navigating the conference’s toughest opponents with a roster still building toward championship-level depth.
The foundation is strong, but 2025 will test whether it can withstand the full weight of Big Ten expectations.
Get ready for the most important season in Greg Schiano’s second tenure.
The Next Billion Dollar Game
College football isn’t just a sport anymore—it’s a high-stakes market where information asymmetry separates winners from losers. While the average fan sees only what happens between the sidelines, real insiders trade on the hidden dynamics reshaping programs from the inside out.
Our team has embedded with the power brokers who run this game. From the coaching carousel to NIL deals to transfer portal strategies, we’ve mapped the entire ecosystem with the kind of obsessive detail that would make a hedge fund analyst blush.
Why subscribe? Because in markets this inefficient, information creates alpha. Our subscribers knew which coaches were dead men walking months before the mainstream media caught on. They understood which programs were quietly transforming their recruiting apparatuses while competitors slept.
The smart money is already positioning for 2025. Are you?
Click below—it’s free—and join the small group of people who understand the real value of college football’s new economy.
After a disastrous 4-8 season in 2024, Maryland’s head coach enters the most pivotal year of his career with everything on the line. The program stands at a crossroads that could determine the next half-decade of Terps football.
But here’s the crazy part: despite last year’s collapse, all the ingredients for a dramatic turnaround are sitting right there on the table:
A shockingly favorable 2025 schedule (no Ohio State, Penn State, or Oregon)
An aggressive transfer portal haul addresses immediate needs
One of the program’s strongest recruiting classes in recent memory
New coordinator hires bringing legitimate NFL coaching pedigree
The question isn’t whether Maryland has the pieces to turn things around. The question is whether they can execute when it matters most.
Let’s Talk About What Went Horribly Wrong in 2024
Maryland’s 2024 season was Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde.
The Terps kicked things off looking like legitimate Big Ten contenders, rattling off three non-conference victories against UConn, Virginia, and Villanova.
Then came conference play, and the implosion was breathtaking:
A single Big Ten win (a narrow USC upset) against seven losses
Most conference defeats coming by double-digit margins
A humiliating 44-7 season-ending beatdown at Penn State
What made 2024 so frustrating was that Maryland actually excelled in one crucial area: the passing game. The Terps’ aerial attack ranked 13th nationally (275.7 yards per game), with Tai Felton emerging as a legitimate #1 receiver (1,124 yards, 9 TDs).
But this success masked fatal flaws that doomed the season:
A non-existent rushing attack (110.6 yards per game, 112th nationally)
A defense that leaked points (30.4 per game)
An inability to pressure opposing QBs (131st of 134 FBS teams in sack rate)
Turnover issues (-3 margin, 102nd nationally)
The result? Maryland’s worst record since 2019, and Locksley’s seat is heating to near-combustible levels.
The Great Roster Reset Is Unprecedented
The aftermath of 2024 triggered a mass exodus unlike anything we’ve seen in College Park.
Twenty-one players fled to the transfer portal—one of the highest totals in the country. Think about that. Nearly two dozen scholarship athletes decided they’d rather play football anywhere else than return to Maryland.
Key departures included:
Starting QB Billy Edwards Jr.
RB Roman Hemby
WRs Kaden Prather and Tai Felton
LB Kellan Wyatt
But instead of wallowing, Locksley made his career’s most aggressive portal moves. He brought in 16+ transfers targeting immediate needs:
QB Room Reconstruction: Justyn Martin (UCLA) and MJ Morris (Coastal Carolina)
New Receiving Corps: Jalil Farooq (Oklahoma), Kaleb Webb (Tennessee), Jordan Scott (Florida State)
O-Line Reinforcements: Multiple additions including Carlos Moore Jr. (Elon), Marcus Dumervil (Arkansas)
Defensive Upgrades: Joel Starlings (North Carolina), Sedrick Smith (Alabama A&M)
This isn’t just tweaking the roster. This is a complete teardown and rebuild in a single offseason.
“As I’ve learned with the new landscape we’re in, you don’t have time to develop,” Locksley admitted at spring media day, officially abandoning his previous “developmental program” philosophy.
Translation: Win now or clean out your office.
Recruiting Is Somehow Red-Hot Despite the On-Field Disaster
Here’s the weirdest part of the Maryland football story.
Despite the program seemingly crumbling on the field, Locksley still wins major recruiting battles. The 2025 class ranks 25th nationally—incredibly impressive for a team that just went 4-8.
Two blue-chip recruits stand out as potential immediate difference-makers:
Malik Washington (QB): The 6’4″, 215-pound Archbishop Spalding product is the 54th-ranked recruit nationally. With a cannon arm and dual-threat capabilities, it wouldn’t be shocking to see him under center in Week 1.
Zahir Mathis (EDGE): The biggest recruiting win of Locksley’s career. The former Ohio State commit chose Maryland on National Signing Day, giving the Terps a 6’6″ edge rusher with a wingspan approaching 6’10”.
The 2025 class includes seven ESPN 300 players—the most in program history—and Maryland locked down 14 in-state prospects.
The talent pipeline hasn’t dried up. If anything, it’s flowing stronger than ever, creating a bizarre disconnect between recruiting rankings and on-field results.
This recruiting momentum offers Locksley a compelling argument for keeping his job: “I’m still bringing in the talent to turn this around.”
The 2025 Schedule Is a Gift from the Football Gods
If you were designing a bounce-back schedule for a coach on the hot seat, it would look exactly like Maryland’s 2025 slate.
Non-Conference (3 games):
Aug. 30: vs. Florida Atlantic
Sept. 6: vs. Northern Illinois
Sept. 13: vs. Towson
Big Ten (9 games):
Sept. 20: at Wisconsin
Oct. 4: vs. Washington
Oct. 11: vs. Nebraska
Oct. 18: at UCLA
Nov. 1: vs. Indiana
Nov. 8: at Rutgers
Nov. 15: at Illinois
Nov. 22: vs. Michigan
Nov. 29: at Michigan State
The schedule gods blessed Maryland with:
No Ohio State
No Penn State
No Oregon
No USC
Three extremely winnable non-conference home games
Multiple winnable Big Ten matchups (Rutgers, Illinois, Indiana)
Let’s be clear: if Maryland doesn’t reach bowl eligibility with this schedule, Locksley will update his resume on December 1st.
The path to six wins is right there. The opening non-conference stretch should yield three victories. After that, the Terps need three conference wins from games against Indiana, Rutgers, Illinois, and Michigan State.
This isn’t just a favorable schedule. It’s a lifeline thrown to a drowning program.
The QB Battle Will Define Everything
The most fascinating storyline of Maryland’s 2025 season is unfolding right now.
After losing their top three quarterbacks to the transfer portal, the Terps will feature a QB competition between two players who’ve barely seen collegiate action:
Justyn Martin – The UCLA transfer brings the pedigree of a Power 5 program but has just one career start.
Malik Washington – The true freshman phenom arrives with sky-high expectations as the 54th-ranked recruit nationally.
New offensive coordinator Pep Hamilton (who has coached Justin Herbert, C.J. Stroud, and Andrew Luck in the NFL) will make the final call. He’s already raving about Washington’s “elite traits” and “photographic memory,” which suggests the freshman has a legitimate shot at starting from Day 1.
Don’t underestimate what getting the quarterback position right would mean for this program. Maryland’s passing game was already among the top-15 nationally last year, but its quarterback play was inconsistent. With the right signal-caller, this offense could explode.
Whether it’s Martin’s experience or Washington’s raw talent, the winner of this competition inherits an offense that can move the ball effectively with competent leadership.
The NFL-ification of Maryland’s Coaching Staff
Locksley is making one final, bold bet: bringing NFL coaching expertise to College Park.
He’s completely revamped his staff with a focus on professional pedigree, particularly with his two new coordinators, who bring a combined 31 years of NFL coaching experience:
Offensive Coordinator Pep Hamilton: Developed NFL QBs Justin Herbert, C.J. Stroud, and Andrew Luck
Defensive Coordinator Ted Monachino: Extensive pro coaching background, including with the Baltimore Ravens
This pivot toward an NFL coaching model makes perfect sense for two reasons:
It’s a direct response to the transfer portal era—players want coaches who can prepare them for the pros
It signals to recruits that Maryland is committed to development at the highest level
It’s also a calculated gamble that more experienced, professionally-oriented coaches can accelerate player development fast enough to save Locksley’s job.
“The whining and complaining [about the new era of college sports], those are excuses,” inside linebackers coach Zac Spavital said this spring, summarizing the staff’s no-nonsense approach.
Let’s Talk About That Flaming Hot Seat
There’s no way to sugarcoat this.
Mike Locksley enters 2025 with his coaching future hanging by a thread. After posting a 4-8 record in 2024, multiple national outlets have identified him as one of the coaches most likely to get fired if results don’t improve dramatically.
The stats tell a damning story:
33-41 overall record at Maryland
Zero finishes in the Big Ten top half
A disastrous regression after back-to-back bowl seasons
USA Today recently ranked Locksley 16th among Big Ten coaches, noting that last season’s “4-8 finish was a major step back after Maryland had made three bowl games in a row.”
The prevailing consensus among college football insiders? Maryland needs at least 7-8 wins in 2025 for Locksley to keep his job.
Currently in the seventh year of his contract (which runs through 2026), Locksley’s recruiting prowess has bought him time. But at some point, recruiting rankings need to translate to wins, and that point is now.
So What Actually Happens in 2025?
Projections for Maryland’s season break down into three distinct camps:
The Optimists: Some believe an eight-win season is genuinely attainable given:
The favorable schedule
The talent influx through recruiting
The transfer portal reinforcements
The upgraded coaching staff
The Pessimists: Others warn that even with the softer schedule, another sub-.500 season remains possible if:
The quarterback situation doesn’t stabilize
The defense continues its struggles
The roster overhaul creates chemistry issues
The coaching changes don’t translate to immediate improvement
The Realists: Most early previews peg Maryland for a 6-6 season with the potential to reach 7-5 if they win their toss-up games.
For the Terps to exceed these modest expectations, four things must happen:
The transfer haul must make an immediate impact
Either Martin or Washington must provide stability at quarterback
The defense (particularly the pass rush) must show dramatic improvement
Maryland must capitalize on its favorable non-conference slate
The 2025 season is Locksley’s last stand.
He’s abandoned his “The Best is Ahead” slogan in favor of a “win now” approach that acknowledges the moment’s urgency. With a favorable schedule, improved talent, and a coaching staff built for immediate results, the opportunity for a breakthrough exists.
The only question is whether Maryland can finally deliver when it matters most.
The Next Billion Dollar Game
College football isn’t just a sport anymore—it’s a high-stakes market where information asymmetry separates winners from losers. While the average fan sees only what happens between the sidelines, real insiders trade on the hidden dynamics reshaping programs from the inside out.
Our team has embedded with the power brokers who run this game. From the coaching carousel to NIL deals to transfer portal strategies, we’ve mapped the entire ecosystem with the kind of obsessive detail that would make a hedge fund analyst blush.
Why subscribe? Because in markets this inefficient, information creates alpha. Our subscribers knew which coaches were dead men walking months before the mainstream media caught on. They understood which programs were quietly transforming their recruiting apparatuses while competitors slept.
The smart money is already positioning for 2025. Are you?
Click below—it’s free—and join the small group of people who understand the real value of college football’s new economy.
For the Wisconsin Badgers, the 2025 season is now or never.
What Happened in 2024 Was Not Just a Blip
It was a gut punch.
They have a 5–7 record, a loss to Minnesota that cost them Paul Bunyan’s Axe, a home finale in which the offense put up 166 total yards, and no bowl game for the first time since 2001.
And yet, that wasn’t the worst part.
The worst part was how lifeless the team looked.
An offense that didn’t know what it wanted to be
A defense that forced only 8 turnovers all season
A coaching staff caught between systems, identities, and ideologies
Head coach Luke Fickell, once viewed as the program’s savior, finished his second year at 13–13. The Air Raid experiment with Phil Longo flamed out quickly.
The Offseason Was an Admission of Failure
To Fickell’s credit, he owned it.
Out went Longo. In came Jeff Grimes, the former Baylor offensive coordinator, who brought back a pro-style, wide-zone identity that actually fits Wisconsin football.
The quarterback room was wiped clean.
Billy Edwards Jr. transferred in from Maryland
Danny O’Neil followed from San Diego State
At receiver:
Jayden Ballard (Ohio State) brings elite athleticism
Mark Hamper (Idaho) offers size and production
Tight end?
Lance Mason from Missouri State—34 catches, 590 yards, 6 TDs
And on the line:
Davis Heinzen, a 36-game starter at Central Michigan, will plug the left tackle hole left by the spring injury to Kevin Heywood
It wasn’t a complete rebuild. It was a targeted reset.
But targeted doesn’t always mean successful.
The Defense: Still Searching for a Pulse
The numbers don’t lie.
342.7 yards allowed per game
Just 17 sacks across 12 games
Only 4 interceptions total
Worse, Wisconsin gave up 42+ points to Alabama, USC, and Iowa. And they were outscored 72–15 in the fourth quarter of their seven losses.
If you’re looking for toughness, this defense didn’t show it.
Fickell and DC Mike Tressel are betting on a fresh rotation up front:
Charles Perkins, Corey Parker, Reiger, and others from the portal
Preston Zachman and Ricardo Hallman return in the secondary
Still, depth is shaky. And losing freshman phenom Xavier Lucas (to Miami) hurts badly.
There are no proven pass rushers. No alpha presence. And no clear identity.
The Transfer Portal Wasn’t Just Busy. It Was Chaos.
Wisconsin signed the No. 14 portal class nationally, No. 3 in the Big Ten.
That sounds good—until you realize the talent out was arguably better than the talent in.
Out: RB Tawee Walker (Cincinnati), WR Will Pauling (Notre Dame), CB Xavier Lucas (Miami), TE Tanner Koziol (Houston)
In: Players from Maryland, Idaho, Purdue, Missouri State, Central Michigan
None of Wisconsin’s incoming transfers made ESPN’s top 100. Two of the players who left did.
This isn’t reloading. This is plugging holes in a leaky boat.
And that boat is headed straight into a hurricane.
The Schedule Is a Nightmare
And this is where it gets ugly.
Wisconsin’s 2025 schedule might be the toughest in school history:
Road games: Alabama, Michigan, Oregon
Home games: Ohio State, Iowa, Washington, Illinois
According to SP+, nine of their opponents rank in the top 40, seven in the top 25, four in the top 13, and three in the top six.
Vegas has the win total at 5.5.
Let that sink in.
This is Wisconsin. A program that expects 9+ wins. Now projected to struggle for bowl eligibility.
And if the season gets off to a slow start?
It could snowball fast.
Where Are the Bright Spots?
There are some.
Riley Mahlman (RT) and Jake Renfro (C) anchor the offensive line
Nathanial Vakos is a steady presence at kicker (100% XP, 63% FG)
The offensive scheme will fit the roster better
The new staff wants to run the ball more effectively and control the clock. Reducing time on the field should help the defense.
And if Billy Edwards Jr. can be average to good, the offense might find rhythm.
If the offense can avoid turnovers and red zone disasters, this team could grind out six or seven wins.
But the Cracks Are Still There
Offensive line depth is dangerously thin
Running back depth behind Jackson Acker is unproven
The receiving corps is untested, mainly at the Power Five level
The defense has no clear game-changers
Chemistry could be a mess with 15+ new transfers
And let’s not forget the coaching carousel:
New OC
New offensive line coach
New tight ends coach
Multiple defensive staff shuffles
You don’t need all these issues to explode—just a few.
And with the margin of error gone, a few is all it takes.
The Verdict: This Is a Career-Defining Year for Luke Fickell
Brandon Marcello of CBS Sports said it best: “It’s bowl game or bust for Fickell. Anything less is probably not enough to keep him in Madison.”
He’s right.
Fickell was hired to modernize Wisconsin football. Instead, he misfired, blew up the offensive identity, and lost to all three border rivals in 2024.
Now, with a schedule from hell and a roster full of questions, he has to produce.
He has to win.
Because if he doesn’t?
Wisconsin becomes a cautionary tale.
Not of a program that tried and failed.
But of one that lost what made it special—and didn’t realize it until it was too late.
The margin is gone.
And this season will decide everything.
The Next Billion Dollar Game
College football isn’t just a sport anymore—it’s a high-stakes market where information asymmetry separates winners from losers. While the average fan sees only what happens between the sidelines, real insiders trade on the hidden dynamics reshaping programs from the inside out.
Our team has embedded with the power brokers who run this game. From the coaching carousel to NIL deals to transfer portal strategies, we’ve mapped the entire ecosystem with the kind of obsessive detail that would make a hedge fund analyst blush.
Why subscribe? Because in markets this inefficient, information creates alpha. Our subscribers knew which coaches were dead men walking months before the mainstream media caught on. They understood which programs were quietly transforming their recruiting apparatuses while competitors slept.
The smart money is already positioning for 2025. Are you?
Click below—it’s free—and join the small group of people who understand the real value of college football’s new economy.
As spring practice concludes in Ann Arbor, the Michigan Wolverines find themselves at a fascinating crossroads.
Following a rollercoaster 2024 campaign that ended with an 8-5 record, second-year head coach Sherrone Moore faces the challenge of recapturing the program’s championship form while integrating a wealth of new talent and implementing significant schematic changes.
The 2024 season will be remembered as a tale of two halves:
A disappointing 5-5 start that had fans questioning the program’s direction
Stunning upsets over No. 2 Ohio State (13-10) and No. 11 Alabama (19-13) to close the year
Michigan is the only program to defeat Alabama twice in one calendar year
A late-season surge that injected renewed optimism into a program that had struggled with consistency
These dramatic season-ending victories completely transformed the narrative around Michigan football heading into 2025.
Michigan’s 2025 campaign will hinge on how quickly the offense can develop around its new quarterback and whether the defense can maintain its late-2024 form. The program’s trajectory remains positive, but the margin for error in a tougher Big Ten is slim.
Have you ever seen a program pin its entire hopes on the shoulders of an 18-year-old quarterback?
All eyes in Ann Arbor are fixed on five-star freshman quarterback Bryce Underwood, the No. 1 overall recruit in the 2025 class and the highest-rated signee in Michigan history.
Underwood’s arrival represents both immense opportunity and significant pressure. The dual-threat signal-caller is widely expected to start immediately despite his youth. His elite talent brings an electricity to Michigan that the program desperately needs after a disappointing offensive showing in 2024.
What makes Underwood’s situation different from other freshman quarterbacks?
He joins a program just one year removed from a national championship
Michigan’s passing attack ranked a dismal 131st nationally in 2024 (129.1 yards per game)
Experienced transfer Mikey Keene (Fresno State/UCF) provides insurance and mentorship
Most analysts expect Underwood to win the starting job immediately
“The quarterback situation is widely viewed as the key to Michigan’s 2025 ceiling,” according to the program’s internal analysis. “If Underwood adapts quickly and the offense improves, Michigan could contend for a Big Ten title and a playoff spot.”
Rarely has a true freshman quarterback shouldered such immediate expectations at a blue-blood program.
Michigan’s offense underwent a complete metamorphosis following one of the worst passing attacks in program history.
The offensive struggles that plagued Michigan in 2024 (113th nationally in scoring at 22.0 points per game) prompted significant changes, beginning with the arrival of new offensive coordinator Chip Lindsey from North Carolina.
Lindsey’s arrival marks a philosophical shift in Ann Arbor. His track record shows a commitment to balanced, explosive attacks. His 2023 UNC offense was one of only two nationally to average at least 290 passing yards and 190 rushing yards per game, showcasing his ability to create dynamic, unpredictable offensive systems.
The early returns from spring practice are promising:
Sophomore receiver Semaj Morgan called the new system “night and day” compared to last year’s approach
The new scheme emphasizes more wide receiver sets instead of heavy, predictable formations
Greater route diversity and vertical passing concepts create more explosive play opportunities
Running backs will be more involved in the passing game, creating mismatches
Supporting the passing game renaissance are new weapons with size and athleticism:
Indiana transfer Donovan McCulley (also 6-5) adds experienced size
Jordan Marshall (who starred in the Alabama bowl victory) returns in the backfield
Alabama transfer Justice Haynes joins to form a powerful one-two punch at running back
While returning experienced pieces like Giovanni El-Hadi, the offensive line must improve its consistency to protect Underwood and establish the physical run game that remains central to Michigan’s identity.
Five-star freshman Andrew Babalola and borderline five-star Ty Haywood could push for early playing time and inject immediate talent into this critical unit.
While the offense rebuilds, Michigan’s defense remains the program’s unshakeable foundation.
While the offense undergoes reconstruction, Michigan’s defense is poised to remain among the nation’s elite.
The 2024 unit allowed just 19.9 points per game (4th nationally) and held opponents to 3.1 yards per rush, showcasing the physical, suffocating style that has become the program’s calling card. Wink Martindale returns for his second season as defensive coordinator after engineering late-season masterpieces against Ohio State and Alabama that saved Michigan’s season.
What makes this defense special despite losing key pieces to the NFL?
The front seven projects to be especially formidable with returning stalwarts Rayshaun Benny, Derrick Moore, Jaishawn Barham, and Ernest Hausmann
Despite losing unanimous All-American Mason Graham, the defensive line boasts significant depth and talent.
While younger and less experienced, the secondary will rely on developing stars and incoming freshmen like four-star signees Shamari Earls, Elijah Dotson, and Kainoa Winston.
Coaching continuity in Martindale’s NFL-derived scheme provides a critical foundation.
Michigan’s defensive identity perfectly complements the program’s physical ethos and should keep the Wolverines competitive even through potential offensive growing pains early in the season.
The defense isn’t just good—it’s championship caliber.
Never underestimate the impact of elite special teams in a season defined by tight margins.
Michigan’s special teams unit, anchored by returning All-American kicker Dominic Zvada, is often overlooked but is critically important to its success.
In 2024, Zvada converted an exceptional 21 of 22 field goals (95.5%) and 26 of 27 extra points (96.3%), providing reliability in close games and a consistent weapon when the offense stalled in the red zone. His clutch performances in the Ohio State and Alabama victories underscored his value to the program.
Beyond the kicking game, Michigan’s special teams provide additional advantages:
The return game features explosive options in sophomores Semaj Morgan and Jordan Marshall
These playmakers add another dimension to Michigan’s ability to flip field position
Strong special teams can create scoring opportunities when the offense struggles
In a conference with narrow margins, special teams excellence can be the difference between victory and defeat
Michigan’s emphasis on special teams excellence reflects the program’s attention to detail and commitment to winning in all three game phases.
The 2025 schedule presents a gauntlet that would challenge even the most experienced teams.
Any assessment of Michigan’s 2025 outlook must account for a challenging schedule that offers few reprieves.
Early road tests at Oklahoma (September 6) and Nebraska (September 20) will immediately test Underwood’s development and the team’s ability to execute in hostile environments. The conference slate includes road games at USC and Michigan State, home contests against Washington and a season finale with archrival Ohio State.
What makes this schedule particularly daunting:
No consecutive home games appear anywhere on the schedule
The constant home/away alternation complicates recovery and momentum
Early road tests come before the team has fully established its identity
Four of Michigan’s opponents are projected preseason top 25 teams
The Ohio State finale comes after a long, grueling season
CBS Sports projects an 8-4 record for the Wolverines, citing roster turnover and the difficult schedule as primary factors. This conservative projection reflects the reality that even talented teams often struggle with consistency when facing elite competition week after week.
Navigating this schedule successfully would validate Michigan’s talent and coaching in a way that would resonate nationally.
For Coach Sherrone Moore, 2025 isn’t just another season—it’s the ultimate referendum on his leadership.
For Coach Sherrone Moore, 2025 represents a critical proving ground defining his tenure at Michigan.
While his job is secure following the program’s strong finish to 2024 and recruiting success (the 2025 class ranked No. 6 nationally), expectations have risen significantly. Moore ranks 14th out of 18 Big Ten coaches in USA Today’s 2025 rankings, reflecting skepticism about his inexperience despite his impressive recruiting wins.
The challenge is multifaceted:
Moore must establish his own identity separate from Jim Harbaugh’s legacy
His offensive coordinator hire (Chip Lindsey) represents a significant philosophical shift
Managing a five-star quarterback’s development requires delicate handling
The expanded Big Ten presents new challenges and unfamiliar opponents
He must navigate a two-game self-imposed suspension due to fallout from the 2023 sign-stealing scandal
This early-season absence could impact the team’s development, particularly with a young quarterback. How Moore handles these challenges will reveal whether he’s merely a caretaker of Harbaugh’s program or a championship-caliber head coach in his own right.
The verdict on Moore’s leadership will emerge through how Michigan responds to adversity in 2025.
The answers to these five questions will determine whether Michigan contends for championships or faces another rebuilding year.
Several critical questions will shape Michigan’s 2025 campaign:
How quickly can Bryce Underwood develop? The ceiling for this team largely depends on whether the freshman phenom can translate his immense talent to college production immediately. The history of true freshman quarterbacks suggests caution, but Underwood’s talent is undeniable.
Will Chip Lindsey’s offensive overhaul yield immediate results? After ranking 131st in passing, Michigan needs dramatic improvement to compete with Big Ten powers. Schematic changes take time, but the talent influx could accelerate the transition.
Can the defense maintain elite production despite key departures? The front seven appears loaded, but secondary depth and consistency remain concerns. Martindale’s second year should bring greater comfort in his system.
Will the offensive line provide adequate protection for a freshman quarterback? This unit’s performance directly impacts Underwood’s development and the effectiveness of the rushing attack. The line must improve from its inconsistent 2024 performance.
Can Michigan navigate the brutal road schedule? Games at Oklahoma, Nebraska, and USC represent significant challenges, particularly for a team breaking in new offensive systems. Road performance often separates good teams from great ones.
The answers to these questions will emerge gradually, but early-season performances will provide critical clues about Michigan’s trajectory.
Michigan stands poised between immediate resurgence and patient program building.
The contrast between optimism and caution defines Michigan’s 2025 outlook.
The influx of elite talent, particularly at quarterback, and the late-season momentum from 2024 suggest Michigan could quickly return to championship contention. Conversely, combining youth at key positions, a new offensive system, and a challenging schedule indicates potential growing pains.
What makes Michigan’s situation so compelling?
They’re just one year removed from a national championship
They possess championship-caliber defensive talent
They landed the nation’s No. 1 recruit at the sport’s most important position
They improved significantly at offensive coordinator
They face one of the nation’s most challenging schedules
They’re led by a head coach still establishing his identity
The talent level in Ann Arbor remains championship-caliber, the defensive identity remains strong, and the offensive ceiling is substantially higher than in 2024.
Whether Michigan can meet those expectations in 2025 or whether fans must practice patience for another season represents the defining storyline as the Wolverines embark on a new era under Sherrone Moore’s leadership, powered by a generational talent in Bryce Underwood.
Michigan’s 2025 season could ultimately be remembered as the beginning of a new dynasty or the necessary growing pains before one.
The Next Billion Dollar Game
College football isn’t just a sport anymore—it’s a high-stakes market where information asymmetry separates winners from losers. While the average fan sees only what happens between the sidelines, real insiders trade on the hidden dynamics reshaping programs from the inside out.
Our team has embedded with the power brokers who run this game. From the coaching carousel to NIL deals to transfer portal strategies, we’ve mapped the entire ecosystem with the kind of obsessive detail that would make a hedge fund analyst blush.
Why subscribe? Because in markets this inefficient, information creates alpha. Our subscribers knew which coaches were dead men walking months before the mainstream media caught on. They understood which programs were quietly transforming their recruiting apparatuses while competitors slept.
The smart money is already positioning for 2025. Are you?
Click below—it’s free—and join the small group of people who understand the real value of college football’s new economy.
Washington Huskies second-year head coach Jedd Fisch is quietly assembling the pieces for what could be the Big Ten’s most intriguing turnaround story in 2025.
Washington enters their sophomore Big Ten campaign with a dramatically different outlook than the tumultuous transition year that produced a 6-7 record in 2024. With a dynamic young quarterback firmly entrenched as the starter, key playmakers returning on both sides of the ball, and a completely revamped coaching staff, the foundation for success is taking shape in Seattle.
What makes this Husky team worth watching isn’t just its potential to improve—it’s how it’s being built to address the glaring weaknesses that derailed it in 2024, specifically.
The Jekyll and Hyde Season That Set the Stage
The 2024 Huskies might have been college football’s most perplexing team.
What other program could boast a perfect 6-0 home record, including a signature win over Michigan, while simultaneously going winless (0-5) on the road? The contrast was so stark it almost defied logic:
At Home: 6-0 record, wins over Michigan (27-17), USC, and UCLA
On the Road: 0-5 record, including a lopsided 21-49 defeat to rival Oregon
Final Tally: 6-7 overall (4-5 Big Ten), capped by a heartbreaking 34-35 Sun Bowl loss to Louisville
This Jekyll and Hyde performance ultimately defined Year One of the Fisch era, creating a clear roadmap for what needs fixing in 2025.
The home dominance demonstrated this team’s ceiling—they have the talent to compete with established Big Ten powers.
The Demond Williams Jr. Effect
Everything changes when you find your quarterback.
The most electric development from Washington’s 2024 campaign was the late-season emergence of Demond Williams Jr., the dynamic dual-threat quarterback who has energized the entire program heading into 2025. Williams, who followed Fisch from Arizona, showed flashes of brilliance that have Husky fans dreaming big.
His Sun Bowl performance alone, over 420 total yards and five touchdowns despite an early interception, offered a tantalizing preview of what’s to come.
“Demond will be the face of Washington football moving forward next year,” Fisch stated unequivocally during the 2024 season, making it clear the program is all-in on building around Williams’ unique talents.
What makes Williams special isn’t just his arm talent or athleticism—it’s the competitive fire he brings to a program in transition:
Completed over 80% of his passes in both of his starts
Demonstrated elite escapability behind a struggling offensive line
Showed remarkable poise for a true freshman in hostile environments
Provided the offense with a dynamic dimension it previously lacked
The offense has additional firepower returning, creating a solid foundation for improvement:
RB Jonah Coleman (1,000+ yards, 10 TDs in 2024)
WR Denzel Boston (834 yards, 9 TDs)
An offensive line bolstered by key transfers
The Coaching Revolution
Jedd Fisch’s staff for 2025 barely resembles the one that roamed the sidelines in 2024.
Four key assistants departed after the 2024 season, triggering a cascade of changes that could dramatically reshape the Huskies’ identity. The most significant moves:
Ryan Walters: The former Purdue head coach takes over as defensive coordinator, bringing a proven track record of defensive transformation
Jimmie Dougherty: Promoted to offensive coordinator while maintaining his role as QB coach
Michael Switzer: Elevated to offensive line coach
Taylor Mays: The former USC All-American joins as safeties coach
The Walters hire deserves special attention.
“Hiring Ryan Walters allows us to continue to build on the foundation of the 2024 defense while continuing to grow and improve,” Fisch explained. “His experience in the Big Ten Conference was vital in this hire, along with having deep family ties in the Seattle area.”
Walters’ defensive coordinator resume speaks volumes about his potential impact. At Illinois, he transformed a unit ranked 97th nationally in scoring defense into the country’s #1 scoring defense (12.3 ppg) in just two seasons, precisely the dramatic improvement Washington needs.
Fixing What Was Broken
The 2024 Huskies had apparent, identifiable weaknesses that torpedoed their season.
Fisch and his staff have spent the offseason methodically addressing each one:
1. Run Defense Vulnerability
2024 Problem: Allowed 161.8 rushing yards per game (4.6 per carry)
2025 Solution: Added significant size (multiple 310+ pound linemen) and emphasized rotational depth to prevent late-game fading
2. Offensive Line Fragility
2024 Problem: Often had just 7-9 healthy linemen, creating depth issues and pass protection breakdowns
2025 Solution: Added 18 offensive linemen for spring practice, including Kansas State transfer tackle Carver Willis
3. Road Game Nightmares
2024 Problem: 0-5 away from home with significant statistical dropoffs
2025 Solution: Increased roster depth and physical development to better withstand travel demands
4. Discipline Issues
2024 Problem: Averaged 5.8 penalties per game, often at crucial moments
2025 Solution: Made discipline a cornerstone of practice philosophy
The Youth Movement
The “Dawgs After Dark” spring game provided the first public glimpse of Washington’s future.
An impressive crowd of 20,565 showed up for the nighttime showcase, where several young players flashed potential that could impact the 2025 campaign:
Multiple redshirt freshmen are pushing for starting roles
“I love having the music playing throughout. I thought we had a really good turnout,” Fisch remarked after the event, highlighting the program’s emphasis on building enthusiasm within the fan base.
The injection of youth, combined with the established veterans, creates an intriguing mix of experience and potential.
The 2025 Gauntlet
Washington’s 2025 schedule presents a series of defining tests to determine whether this team has taken the next step.
The non-conference slate looks manageable (Colorado State, UC Davis, and the Apple Cup against Washington State), but the Big Ten portion features several potential season-makers or season-breakers:
Biggest Home Challenges:
Ohio State (late September)
Oregon (season finale)
Road Gauntlet:
Michigan’s Big House (mid-October)
Wisconsin’s Camp Randall (early November)
Maryland (following the Ohio State game)
A unique scheduling quirk adds another layer of difficulty—Washington faces five conference opponents coming off bye weeks, while the Huskies’ byes fall at suboptimal times (Weeks 3 and 10).
The Blueprint for Success
Four factors ultimately determine whether Washington ascends to the Big Ten hierarchy or remains stuck in transition.
1. Williams’ Evolution: His dual-threat capabilities give the offense a dynamic dimension, but consistency in the passing game will be paramount against elite defenses.
2. Walters’ Defensive Impact: Can the new coordinator work the same magic he produced at Illinois, particularly against the run?
3. Trench Warfare: Both lines struggled in 2024. The added size and depth are promising, but performance against physical Big Ten opponents will be the true measure.
4. Road Resilience Turning around the dismal 0-5 road record is essential for a winning season.
The 2025 Outlook
The math suggests Washington is headed for improvement in 2025.
Early projections place the Huskies in the 7-5 range, with a realistic span between 6-6 and 8-4 depending on how quickly the new coaching innovations take hold. This would represent tangible progress from 2024 and position the program well for further advancement in 2026.
“We still haven’t even been here a year,” Fisch reflected after the 2024 season. “To be around these kids and these guys has just been so special. They certainly have laid the foundation of a team that’s going to fight, a team that’s going to play extremely hard, a team that has an elite freshman playing quarterback, and a team that’s going to be out here battling every year to be in the playoff games.”
The ceiling for this team ultimately depends on how quickly Walters’ defensive schemes take hold and whether the offensive line can better protect Williams, allowing him to showcase his talents fully.
What’s clear is that 2025 represents more than just another season; it’s the year Washington establishes its Big Ten identity.
The Next Billion Dollar Game
College football isn’t just a sport anymore—it’s a high-stakes market where information asymmetry separates winners from losers. While the average fan sees only what happens between the sidelines, real insiders trade on the hidden dynamics reshaping programs from the inside out.
Our team has embedded with the power brokers who run this game. From the coaching carousel to NIL deals to transfer portal strategies, we’ve mapped the entire ecosystem with the kind of obsessive detail that would make a hedge fund analyst blush.
Why subscribe? Because in markets this inefficient, information creates alpha. Our subscribers knew which coaches were dead men walking months before the mainstream media caught on. They understood which programs were quietly transforming their recruiting apparatuses while competitors slept.
The smart money is already positioning for 2025. Are you?
Click below—it’s free—and join the small group of people who understand the real value of college football’s new economy.
If there’s one word to describe Michigan State football heading into the 2025 season, it’s “potential.”
Jonathan Smith’s second season at the helm brings Spartan faithful to a crossroads of hope and skepticism. After a 5-7 campaign in 2024 that showed flashes of promise but ultimately extended the program’s bowl drought to three consecutive seasons, Michigan State enters 2025 armed with a dramatically retooled roster and heightened expectations.
The million-dollar question hanging over East Lansing: Can Smith accelerate this rebuild and return the Spartans to Big Ten relevance faster than the experts predict?
Building Around Chiles
Aidan Chiles is the engine that will power Michigan State’s 2025 season.
The Oregon State transfer’s first year in East Lansing was a rollercoaster – 2,415 passing yards, 13 touchdowns, and 11 interceptions while completing 59% of his passes. But raw numbers only tell part of the story. The stats don’t show the jaw-dropping throws, the escapes from collapsing pockets, and the flashes of NFL-caliber talent that had Spartan fans salivating about the future.
“I want the wins,” Chiles told reporters this spring. “But I want to learn how to get those wins. We’ve got to do the right things.”
This isn’t just “coachespeak”; it’s the mindset of a quarterback who experienced both the highs of a 3-0 start and the lows of blowout losses to conference powers in 2024. His December social media announcement recommitting to MSU for 2025 stabilized the program’s most important position at a time when QB transfer rumors swirl across college football daily.
For Michigan State to exceed expectations this fall, Chiles must make these three specific improvements:
Red zone decision-making: Converting yards into points was a glaring weakness, as MSU ranked 127th nationally in red zone efficiency
Third-down execution: The Spartans converted just 40.3% of third downs, keeping the defense on the field too long
Ball security: Those 11 interceptions must decrease, especially in a schedule featuring multiple top-25 defenses
The quarterback room also added talented freshman Leo Hannan from Servite High School in California. A 6-foot-4, 210-pound prospect with a cannon arm, Hannan will develop behind Chiles rather than compete for the starting role immediately.
Portal-Powered Improvement
Jonathan Smith has completely transformed Michigan State’s roster through the transfer portal.
The numbers tell the story: 16 transfers during the winter window alone, with more potentially coming during the spring period. This matches Smith’s stated philosophy about the modern college football landscape.
“I think philosophically, just where the landscape continues to go, it’s probably going to be closer to this 50-50 mark,” Smith explained during his Early Signing Day press conference.
This portal strategy has delivered massive upgrades at virtually every offensive position:
Running back: Elijah Tau-Tolliver (Sacramento State) brings 1,267 all-purpose yards and 9 TDs from 2024
Wide receiver: Three impact transfers headlined by Omari Kelly (Middle Tennessee State), who earned All-Conference USA first-team honors with 53 receptions for 869 yards
Offensive line: Multiple additions, including Conner Moore (Montana State), an FCS All-American who should immediately improve a unit that surrendered 19 sacks last season
When paired with breakout sophomore receiver Nick Marsh (649 yards as a freshman), Chiles now has legitimate weapons at every field level – something distinctly lacking during the 2024 campaign.
Defensive Retooling
Michigan State’s defense needed a complete overhaul, and Smith delivered through the portal.
The most glaring weakness in 2024 was the anemic pass rush, which generated just 19 sacks, among the lowest totals in the Big Ten and a key reason opponents converted 40.3% of third downs. To address this fatal flaw, Smith targeted these specific reinforcements:
Edge rushers: David Santiago (Air Force) and Anelu Lafaele (Wisconsin) bring athleticism, if not Power Five starting experience
Secondary: NiJhay Burt (Eastern Illinois), Malcolm Bell (UConn), and Joshua Eaton (Texas State) add much-needed depth and experience
Linebacker: Aisea Moa (BYU) provides athleticism to a unit that struggled in space last season
The defensive wild card is safety Malik Spencer, who one NFL insider suggested could play himself into first-round draft consideration with a strong junior season. Spencer’s 72 tackles and 6 pass breakups in 2024 only hint at his potential as the defense’s centerpiece.
If these portal additions can raise the defensive floor from “liability” to even “average,” Michigan State’s win total could exceed Vegas’s conservative 4.5-game projection.
Schedule Challenges
Michigan State’s 2025 schedule is absolutely brutal.
After a manageable non-conference slate featuring Western Michigan, Boston College, and Youngstown State, the Big Ten gauntlet looks like something designed by a sadistic schedule-maker with a vendetta against East Lansing.
Consider this murderer’s row:
Road trips: USC, Nebraska, Indiana, Minnesota, and Iowa – all teams projected to be bowl-eligible or better
Home games: Penn State, Michigan, and UCLA – offering little respite between road challenges
Neutral site: Maryland at Detroit’s Ford Field – potentially the most “winnable” conference game
With five likely preseason Top 25 teams on the docket, even significant improvement might not translate directly to a dramatically better record. This is where context matters – competitive losses against elite teams would represent meaningful progress compared to 2024’s blowouts.
The season opener against Western Michigan becomes crucial for building momentum and confidence before the Big Ten buzzsaw arrives.
Roster Development
Michigan State’s recruiting strategy reflects Smith’s methodical, long-term approach to program building.
The 2025 high school class, ranked 45th nationally according to 247Sports, isn’t going to wow national analysts. But look closer and you’ll see a clear identity emerging – tough, developmental prospects who fit specific schemes rather than star rankings.
Four-star defensive tackle Derrick Simmons from Frankenmuth, Michigan, headlines the group, while the class includes these potential diamonds in the rough:
Leo Hannan (QB): Big arm talent with surprisingly good mobility for his 6’4″ frame
Aydan West (CB): Ball-hawking cornerback who was pursued heavily by Ohio State late in the cycle
Zion Gist (RB): Powerful runner with a north-south style that fits perfectly in Smith’s offense
However, the real X-factor for 2025 is the potential emergence of second-year players from the 2024 recruiting class. Wide receiver Nick Marsh has already proven himself. Still, linebacker Jordan Hall (24 tackles in 2024) could be the breakout star after being converted to a hybrid edge role to help address the pass rush deficiencies.
Program Trajectory
Jonathan Smith is building Michigan State football like he rebuilt Oregon State.
This matters enormously when projecting the program’s trajectory. Smith methodically transformed Oregon State from Pac-12 doormat to 10-win contender through these specific strategies:
Process-oriented approach: Focusing on daily improvement rather than short-term results
Staff consistency: Building coaching continuity rather than constantly changing systems
Player development: Turning 3-star recruits into All-Conference performers
Portal maximization: Using transfers strategically to address immediate roster holes
His first year in East Lansing offered glimpses of this blueprint, and Smith has generated surprising goodwill among fans, boosters, and administrators who recognize the difficult situation he inherited. While patience isn’t infinite in college football, there’s genuine understanding that rebuilding requires time.
Financial commitment remains strong, with key donors like Mat Ishbia (who contributed $20 million to the $68 million football facility renovation) continuing to back Smith’s vision. These investments signal the university’s long-term commitment despite recent struggles.
Keys to Success in 2025
For Michigan State to shock the Big Ten and exceed expectations in 2025, these five specific factors must align:
Red Zone Efficiency: Converting drives into touchdowns instead of field goals or turnovers (MSU scored just 1.1 offensive TDs/game in 2024 despite averaging 5.4 yards/play)
Pass Rush Development: Increasing sack production from 19 to 30+ would transform the defense’s effectiveness, especially on third downs.
Disciplined Play: Penalties (6.7 per game at 63.3 yards) killed countless drives in 2024, though spring reports show improvement toward the 4.2 penalties/game target
Offensive Line Cohesion: With NFL prospect Luke Newman anchoring a unit returning four starters plus key portal additions, the trenches could become a strength
Turnover Creation: The defense generated 9 interceptions in 2024 but just 4 forced fumbles – doubling that latter number would dramatically improve field position
If these five areas show meaningful improvement, Michigan State could be surprised at a conference where many teams are also transitioning.
Outlook and Expectations
Here’s the brutal truth about Michigan State football in 2025: Vegas oddsmakers have set the win total at just 4.5.
This conservative projection acknowledges the program’s rebuilding status and murderous schedule. But here’s where betting markets and football reality diverge – Smith establishes a foundation for sustainable success far beyond the 2025 record.
The current situation requires patience for a fanbase accustomed to Dantonio’s glory days, three Big Ten championships, and a College Football Playoff appearance. Yet there’s growing recognition that Smith’s methodical approach mirrors many of the attributes that made Dantonio successful in the first place.
The real question isn’t whether Michigan State will win six games in 2025. It’s whether Michigan State will become a program that consistently wins 8-10 games by 2026 and beyond.
One thing is certain: with Chiles at quarterback and a dramatically upgraded supporting cast, Spartan football will be significantly more entertaining and competitive than recent memory – even if bowl eligibility remains an ambitious target for this particular season.
The foundation is being poured. Now it’s time to see if the structure rises faster than expected.
The Next Billion Dollar Game
College football isn’t just a sport anymore—it’s a high-stakes market where information asymmetry separates winners from losers. While the average fan sees only what happens between the sidelines, real insiders trade on the hidden dynamics reshaping programs from the inside out.
Our team has embedded with the power brokers who run this game. From the coaching carousel to NIL deals to transfer portal strategies, we’ve mapped the entire ecosystem with the kind of obsessive detail that would make a hedge fund analyst blush.
Why subscribe? Because in markets this inefficient, information creates alpha. Our subscribers knew which coaches were dead men walking months before the mainstream media caught on. They understood which programs were quietly transforming their recruiting apparatuses while competitors slept.
The smart money is already positioning for 2025. Are you?
Click below—it’s free—and join the small group of people who understand the real value of college football’s new economy.
UCLA just went all-in on the transfer portal — and it might propel them from Big Ten afterthought to conference dark horse overnight.
After a bumpy 5-7 inaugural season in the Big Ten, head coach DeShaun Foster isn’t settling for gradual improvement. Instead, he’s orchestrating a total program rebuild through the most aggressive quarterback upgrade and coaching overhaul we’ve seen in college football’s new era.
25 million eyes are watching the Nico Iamaleava experiment
Where will you be when college football history gets made?
Tennessee’s loss became UCLA’s stunning gain when former five-star quarterback Nico Iamaleava announced his transfer to Westwood in April 2025. The move instantly transformed the Bruins’ offensive ceiling and national relevance. The Southern California native returns home after leading Tennessee to a 10-3 record and College Football Playoff appearance last season.
What makes this transfer so fascinating?
Iamaleava brings elite credentials: 2,616 passing yards, 19 touchdowns, and just 5 interceptions in 2024
His dual-threat abilities (358 rushing yards, 3 TDs) perfectly match modern offensive systems
The transfer saga became college football’s biggest soap opera, with reported NIL disputes at Tennessee
UCLA’s expected starter, Joey Aguilar (Appalachian State transfer), immediately left after Iamaleava’s commitment
When Foster called Iamaleava “the No. 1 player in the portal” at his April press conference, he wasn’t exaggerating. The coach acknowledged the hometown connection made the courtship easier: “If it wasn’t a local kid, it would’ve been a little bit more difficult,” Foster said. “But being able to see him play in high school and evaluating that film at Tennessee wasn’t hard to do. A lot of the kids on the team know him and have played with him.”
This isn’t just a quarterback upgrade — it’s a program-defining swing that could accelerate UCLA’s Big Ten trajectory by years.
The offensive wizard you’ve never heard of (yet)
While everyone’s talking about Iamaleava, don’t sleep on UCLA’s other transformative addition.
Tino Sunseri might be the most critical coordinator hire in college football this season. The 36-year-old quarterback guru joins UCLA after engineering Indiana’s offensive explosion (41.3 PPG, 2nd nationally) that fueled the Hoosiers’ shocking College Football Playoff appearance.
What makes Sunseri the perfect architect for UCLA’s offensive rebuild?
His QB development track record is impeccable (turned Kurtis Rourke into one of Big Ten’s best at Indiana)
He learned under college football royalty (Nick Saban at Alabama, Jimbo Fisher at Florida State)
His innovative system emphasizes tempo, pre-snap motion, and quarterback-friendly concepts
UCLA desperately needs his expertise after ranking 126th nationally in scoring (18.4 PPG)
Foster’s praise for Sunseri wasn’t just typical coaching speak: “Tino Sunseri is a natural leader of young men and a rising star in coaching. He puts his quarterbacks in positions to succeed, and it shows when you look at their production. Players will feed off his passion for development.”
The Iamaleava-Sunseri pairing has Hollywood-level intrigue. If they click immediately, UCLA could become the Big Ten’s most fascinating offense.
The transfer portal isn’t just changing UCLA’s quarterback room — it’s rebuilding their entire identity.
No program in America embraced college football’s free agency revolution more completely than UCLA this offseason.
The numbers are staggering: 29 incoming transfers and 34 outgoing transfers by mid-May 2025. That’s not roster tweaking; it’s a complete teardown and rebuild.
The transfer portal transformation includes:
Losing productive RB T.J. Harden to SMU, but adding Jaivian Thomas (Cal) and Anthony Woods (Idaho)
Reinforcing the receiver corps with Mikey Matthews to complement promising returner Kwazi Gilmer
Rebuilding an entire defense that lost all 11 starters, including standout LB Carson Schwesinger
Adding 20 new defensive players to work under returning coordinator Ikaika Malloe
This isn’t just changing players; it’s changing UCLA’s competitive DNA. Foster is betting that rapid, wholesale change through the portal will produce faster results than gradual development.
The question isn’t whether UCLA has talent. It’s whether a team with so many new faces can build chemistry quickly enough to maximize that talent.
A schedule with just enough runway for takeoff
UCLA’s second Big Ten schedule provides a sensible launch sequence for its rebuilt program.
The schedule begins with three appealing non-conference matchups:
Utah at home (Aug. 30) — Former Pac-12 rival now in the Big 12
At UNLV (Sept. 6) — Winnable road test at Allegiant Stadium
New Mexico at home (Sept. 13) — Opportunity to build confidence
BYE WEEK — Perfect timing before conference play
Then, the Big Ten gauntlet alternates home and away games (a massive improvement over 2024’s travel nightmare, which saw UCLA log over 22,000 miles).
The Winnable Games:
Northwestern (away, Sept. 27)
Maryland (home, Oct. 18)
Nebraska (home, Nov. 8)
Indiana (away, Oct. 25)
The Measuring Stick Games:
Penn State (home, Oct. 4)
Michigan State (away, Oct. 11)
Washington (home, Nov. 22)
The Major Challenges:
Ohio State (away, Nov. 15)
USC (away, Nov. 29)
This schedule has the perfect structure for a rebuilding team: early confidence-builders, midseason tests, and high-profile showcase opportunities late. If UCLA manages a 2-1 non-conference start and splits its winnable conference games, bowl eligibility becomes realistic.
Foster’s coaching future will be defined in the next 12 Saturdays
Year Two is when coaching narratives get solidified.
For DeShaun Foster, 2025 isn’t just another season — it’s potentially career-defining. After a 5-7 debut that showed both promise (winning 3 of last 6) and problems (losing first 5 conference games), Foster responded with one of college football’s boldest offseason overhauls.
What makes Foster’s second season so pivotal?
He’s betting his coaching future on the transfer portal model working immediately.
The financial stakes in the Big Ten raise expectations exponentially
His Bruins background (UCLA legend as a player) amplifies both the support and scrutiny
Bowl eligibility is now the minimum standard for fan satisfaction
Foster understands the ticking clock, telling reporters early in the offseason: “We’re going to be able to reload… That’s the nature of the business” — words interpreted by many as acknowledging his seat temperature.
Coaches who succeed in Year Two often build lasting programs, while those who don’t often find themselves updating résumés.
Bowl game or bust? Experts say it’s a coin flip.
Vegas and betting markets have UCLA sitting precisely on the bowl eligibility bubble.
The consensus over/under line for UCLA’s 2025 win total: 5.5 games.
What that means in plain English: experts believe UCLA is equally likely to win 5 games and miss a bowl as they are to win 6+ and qualify. The Bruins are the ultimate “prove it” team entering 2025.
The four factors that will determine which side of the bowl line UCLA lands on:
Quarterback Impact: Can Iamaleava reproduce his Tennessee production in a new system?
Staff Chemistry: Will a nearly complete coaching turnover create cohesion or confusion?
Schedule Navigation: Can UCLA handle the winnable games (Northwestern, Maryland, Nebraska)?
Defensive Rebuild: Is it possible to lose 11 starters and maintain defensive competence?
CBS Sports’ Tom Fornelli perfectly captured the prevailing sentiment: UCLA has “a real shot at six wins and a bowl berth if they take care of business in winnable games.”
Foster’s aggressive offseason approach has given UCLA legitimate bowl aspirations. Now they need to convert potential into production.
The Bruins are running college football’s most fascinating experiment
UCLA is testing a revolutionary question: can you shortcut a rebuild through the transfer portal?
Traditional program building takes years of recruiting, developing, and establishing a culture. Foster is attempting to compress that timeline dramatically through immediate talent infusion.
If UCLA reaches a bowl game in 2025, it will validate a new model for rapid program transformation. If it falls short, it will demonstrate the limitations of the portal-centric approach.
The 2025 Bruins represent the clearest test case yet of college football’s new roster-building paradigm. By acquiring an elite quarterback (Iamaleava), innovative coordinator (Sunseri), and dozens of transfers, UCLA has positioned itself as the sport’s most interesting experiment.
In 12 months, we’ll know if it was brilliance or folly.
What we’re about to witness in Westwood isn’t just another season of Bruins football — it’s a glimpse into the future of college football program building.
And I can’t wait to see how it unfolds.
The Next Billion Dollar Game
College football isn’t just a sport anymore—it’s a high-stakes market where information asymmetry separates winners from losers. While the average fan sees only what happens between the sidelines, real insiders trade on the hidden dynamics reshaping programs from the inside out.
Our team has embedded with the power brokers who run this game. From the coaching carousel to NIL deals to transfer portal strategies, we’ve mapped the entire ecosystem with the kind of obsessive detail that would make a hedge fund analyst blush.
Why subscribe? Because in markets this inefficient, information creates alpha. Our subscribers knew which coaches were dead men walking months before the mainstream media caught on. They understood which programs were quietly transforming their recruiting apparatuses while competitors slept.
The smart money is already positioning for 2025. Are you?
Click below—it’s free—and join the small group of people who understand the real value of college football’s new economy.
After ending its seven-year bowl drought and claiming its first bowl victory since 2015, the Nebraska Cornhuskers enter the 2025 season with sky-high expectations. Matt Rhule’s program made legitimate progress in year two, finishing 7-6 with a 20-15 triumph over Boston College in the Pinstripe Bowl. Armed with a transformed roster and revamped coaching staff, the Huskers look ready to shatter expectations in the Big Ten.
The Mastermind Has Arrived (And He’s Staying)
Dana Holgorsen might be the most important addition to Nebraska football in a decade.
The offensive guru officially signed a two-year contract to remain Nebraska’s offensive coordinator after his late-season audition produced immediate results. Joining the staff initially as a consultant in 2024 before taking over play-calling duties for the final four games, Holgorsen transformed a stagnant offense almost overnight.
“Dana is one of the elite offensive minds in football, and the progress we made in our final three games provides a glimpse of the potential of our offense under his direction,” head coach Matt Rhule explained when announcing Holgorsen’s retention.
His resume tells the story of offensive brilliance:
Six seasons as an FBS coordinator with average national finishes of 2nd in passing offense, 3rd in total offense, and 6th in scoring
Experience developing more than 20 All-Americans and 50 NFL draft picks
History of coaching quarterbacks to fifteen 3,000-yard passing seasons
Track record of six 4,000-yard passing seasons and two 5,000-yard passing seasons under his guidance
Defensively, John Butler brings a fresh approach as coordinator with extensive experience from both the college and NFL ranks. Terry Bradden, who joins from the Kansas City Chiefs, coaches the defensive line, adding professional championship pedigree to the staff.
The combination of offensive continuity and strategic defensive additions positions Nebraska for a potential breakout in 2025.
Dylan Raiola 2.0: Leaner, Meaner, and Ready to Explode
Dylan Raiola is transforming himself into a championship quarterback.
No single player impacts Nebraska’s 2025 ceiling more than their sophomore signal-caller. The former five-star recruit showcased immense potential as a true freshman starter, completing 67.1% of his passes for 2,819 yards and 13 touchdowns. These weren’t just good numbers for a freshman but program-record-setting performances.
This offseason has been about physical transformation and leadership development. Matt Rhule didn’t mince words about Raiola’s need to reshape his body, stating bluntly: “He won’t be a great quarterback at 240 pounds.”
The message landed. Raiola attacked his conditioning with:
Pre-dawn 6 a.m. boxing sessions to improve his cardio and quick-twitch athleticism
Comprehensive nutrition and weight management program
Extended sauna sessions during breaks to improve conditioning
By spring practice, Raiola reported feeling “in the best shape” of his career, having dropped approximately 10 pounds while significantly improving his mobility.
“I’m super excited about my future with Nebraska,” Raiola told reporters in March 2025. “Coach Holgorsen’s offense really suits my style and gives me freedom to make plays. I’m focused on mastering the system and being a better leader for my teammates.”
Beyond physical improvements, Raiola has embraced becoming the team’s unquestioned leader, even coaching younger quarterbacks during practices. Rhule has noticed the difference, noting Raiola is “10 steps ahead of where he was” as a freshman, showcasing improved pocket movement, quicker decision-making, and advanced understanding of defensive coverages.
The Transfer Portal Revolution
Nebraska just assembled one of the nation’s elite transfer classes.
The Huskers aggressively leveraged the transfer portal to address their 2024 weaknesses, landing eleven high-impact transfers who will immediately elevate the program’s talent level in critical areas.
Dane Key from Kentucky stands as the crown jewel of the class. The 6-foot-3 receiver arrives with eye-popping SEC credentials:
126 catches for 1,870 yards and 14 touchdowns over three seasons
Career-high 715 receiving yards in 2024 despite inconsistent quarterback play
Extensive experience against NFL-caliber defensive backs
Key immediately projects as Raiola’s primary target, bringing precise route-running, reliable hands, and high-level experience against elite competition.
“Dylan was one of the first people that texted me when I came on my visit,” Key revealed during spring practice. “Dylan was with me on every second of my visit.”
The connection between quarterback and new receiver is already blooming, with Key specifically mentioning that Raiola’s talent was “one of the main reasons why I chose to come here.”
Defensively, former Oklahoma linebacker Dasan McCullough brings versatility and playmaking ability. The 6-foot-5, 235-pound former Freshman All-American at Indiana gives Nebraska’s defense an actual chess piece capable of playing multiple positions.
Nebraska also secured cornerback Andrew Marshall from Idaho, among the top FCS defensive backs in 2024 with first-team All-Big Sky honors. Marshall provides coverage skills and elite return ability, addressing a critical special-teams weakness from last season.
Other crucial additions include Notre Dame offensive lineman Rocco Spindler (projected as one of the Big Ten’s top interior linemen) and former Missouri defensive lineman Williams Nwaneri (a disruptive force who should help offset losses along the defensive front).
A Schedule Made for Success
Nebraska couldn’t have asked for a more favorable Big Ten schedule.
The 2025 slate sets up perfectly for the Huskers to make serious noise. They open against Cincinnati in a neutral-site game (likely at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City) before hosting Akron and Houston Christian to complete non-conference play.
In conference action, Nebraska benefits from several fortunate breaks:
Avoiding both Ohio State and Oregon completely
Hosting Michigan, Michigan State, Northwestern, USC, and rival Iowa at Memorial Stadium
Building momentum with four consecutive home games early in the season
Playing their toughest road games (Penn State, UCLA) after establishing identity
This structure allows Nebraska to build confidence and momentum early with four straight home games (including two Big Ten contests) following the opener against Cincinnati.
With analysts already projecting Nebraska to win 8-9 games in 2025, this favorable schedule could be the catalyst needed to exceed expectations if Raiola and the offensive additions click under Holgorsen’s guidance.
Holgorsen’s Offensive Revolution
Dana Holgorsen spent a month redesigning Nebraska’s offense from the ground up.
After his brief but impactful late-season audition as play-caller, Holgorsen dedicated his entire offseason to reshaping Nebraska’s offensive identity. He’s maintained schematic continuity from 2024 but is streamlining the system to maximize Raiola’s strengths and enhance the team’s explosiveness.
“I sat here for a month, watched every cut-up, and figured out stuff I wanted to do and didn’t want to do,” Holgorsen explained of his methodical approach. “If there are subtle changes in terminology, sets or plays, a majority of it’s going to stay the same.”
The receiving corps has undergone complete transformation. Dane Key and Cal transfer Nyziah Hunter join returners Jacory Barney Jr. and Jaylen Lloyd to form what could be Nebraska’s most dynamic playmaker group in years.
During spring workouts, Barney particularly caught Key’s attention: “The way that guy moves is very special. I haven’t seen too many guys move and shift the way that he can.”
Emmett Johnson steps into the featured role in the backfield after averaging an impressive 5.1 yards per carry last season. Johnson’s explosiveness fits perfectly in Holgorsen’s historically balanced offensive system.
The offensive line, a priority for both Rhule and Holgorsen, should take a significant step forward with Spindler’s addition and returning experience. Improved protection for Raiola and a consistent ground game will be essential for unlocking the full potential of Holgorsen’s offensive vision.
A New Defensive Identity
John Butler brings fresh defensive ideas while honoring what already worked.
With Tony White departing to Florida State, new defensive coordinator Butler introduces his approach while maintaining elements of the successful 3-3-5 structure that served Nebraska well in 2024. Look for more multiple fronts and aggressive pressure packages designed to generate turnovers and disrupt opposing offenses.
McCullough’s arrival gives Nebraska a versatile weapon that can line up almost anywhere, including the hybrid “Jack” role, which combines linebacker and edge-rusher responsibilities. Nebraska’s secondary, which performed admirably in 2024 by holding opponents to a 63.9% completion rate, adds Marshall to an already talented group featuring Ceyair Wright, Malcolm Hartzog Jr., and Marques Buford Jr.
The defensive front will showcase several new faces following key departures, but Nwaneri’s addition provides immediate impact potential. Nebraska’s defensive success in 2025 largely depends on how quickly these new pieces mesh and whether Butler can maintain the improvement shown under White’s leadership.
Fixing the Kicking Game
Special teams improvement could be worth an extra win or two in 2025.
This phase remains a critical focus heading into 2025 after inconsistent performance plagued the Huskers last season. Nebraska’s field goal percentage (68.4%) fell below the national average, and the return game generated almost no explosive plays.
Matt Rhule diagnosed the issue directly during spring practice: “I think a lot of our problems stemmed at the snapper position.”
To address these weaknesses, Nebraska made targeted additions:
Andrew Marshall brings elite return skills from his time at Idaho
Long snapper Kevin Gallic transfers in from New Hampshire
Punter Jack McCallister arrives from Washington to boost field position
These specialized additions demonstrate Nebraska’s commitment to improving every aspect of its program, not just the headline-grabbing offensive and defensive positions.
Five Keys to a Breakthrough Season
Nebraska’s path to exceeding expectations depends on five critical factors.
For the Huskers to surpass the 8-9 win projection that analysts have set, they must address these specific areas:
Red Zone Efficiency: Converting drives into touchdowns was Nebraska’s Achilles’ heel in 2024. Holgorsen’s offensive system should produce immediate improvement, paired with Key’s addition and Raiola’s development.
Breaking Through Against Ranked Teams: Nebraska competed with but ultimately fell short against ranked opponents in 2024. Securing signature wins against quality competition represents the next crucial step in the program’s evolution.
Special Teams Impact: Field position battles and scoring opportunities via the kicking game often decide close conference contests. Nebraska’s focused portal additions in this area should pay immediate dividends.
Quarterback Evolution: Raiola’s progression from promising freshman to established Big Ten quarterback will determine Nebraska’s ultimate ceiling. His physical transformation and comfort in Holgorsen’s system suggest he’s ready for the leap.
Defensive Cohesion: Despite a coordinator change, maintaining defensive effectiveness while integrating new starters represents a critical challenge. Butler’s NFL experience and the influx of talented transfers offer reason for optimism.
The Return of Big Red
Nebraska football is finally back where it belongs.
Seven years removed from their last bowl appearance before 2024, the Cornhuskers finally appear to be on solid footing under Matt Rhule’s leadership. The combination of Raiola’s development, Holgorsen’s offensive genius, strategic transfer additions, and a manageable schedule creates legitimate excitement heading into 2025.
“This is about building a sustainable program,” Rhule has consistently emphasized. With tangible progress already evident and significant investments in coaching and talent acquisition, the 2025 season represents a potential turning point in Nebraska’s return to national relevance.
While challenges remain, particularly integrating numerous new faces and establishing consistency against top competition, the foundation is firmly in place for Nebraska to surpass last season’s seven-win mark and potentially challenge for a top-half finish in the expanded Big Ten.
The 2025 season may not yet represent a return to championship contention for a program with Nebraska’s storied tradition. Still, it signals that the Cornhuskers are officially returning to prominence after nearly a decade in the wilderness.
The Next Billion Dollar Game
College football isn’t just a sport anymore—it’s a high-stakes market where information asymmetry separates winners from losers. While the average fan sees only what happens between the sidelines, real insiders trade on the hidden dynamics reshaping programs from the inside out.
Our team has embedded with the power brokers who run this game. From the coaching carousel to NIL deals to transfer portal strategies, we’ve mapped the entire ecosystem with the kind of obsessive detail that would make a hedge fund analyst blush.
Why subscribe? Because in markets this inefficient, information creates alpha. Our subscribers knew which coaches were dead men walking months before the mainstream media caught on. They understood which programs were quietly transforming their recruiting apparatuses while competitors slept.
The smart money is already positioning for 2025. Are you?
Click below—it’s free—and join the small group of people who understand the real value of college football’s new economy.
Get insider college football intel delivered to your inbox
Want insider analysis on college football program moves before they happen? Get hard-hitting insights, no fluff – straight to your inbox. Subscribe to the Coaches Hot Seat newsletter and be on the cutting edge of what’s happening in the world of college football.
