Here’s what everyone in college football knows but won’t say out loud.
Brent Venables is coaching for his career on Saturday. Not his season. His career. When you’re ranked #6 out of 136 coaches on the Coaches Hot Seat rankings, every game becomes a referendum on your future.
The Math Is Simple:
22-17 record in three seasons at Oklahoma
Two losing seasons out of three
#6 on the hot seat rankings (danger zone territory)
A schedule ESPN calls the toughest in college football
Meanwhile, Sherrone Moore sits comfortably at #36 in our rankings. That’s the difference between “we’re watching” and “we’re planning your replacement.”
Here’s What Makes Saturday Fascinating:
Oklahoma went nuclear in the offseason. They brought in 21 transfer portal players, hired a new offensive coordinator, and landed John Mateer—the quarterback who led all of college football with 44 total touchdowns last season.
Michigan countered with the #1 recruit in the country, Bryce Underwood, who already proved he belongs by going 21/31 for 251 yards in his debut.
The Stakes:
For Venables, this is his best shot at an early statement win before facing eight projected top-25 opponents. Win, and the complete program overhaul looks genius. Lose, and the whispers become roars.
For Moore, this is about proving their offensive transformation can execute against proven competition.
The Truth:
Desperate coaches make dangerous opponents. When your job depends on 12 games, every snap gets magnified. Every decision gets scrutinized.
Saturday tells us whether that desperation breaks Oklahoma or brings out its best.
We Track Coaching Pressure So You See The Warning Signs First
You just read the kind of analysis that predicted coaching changes before they happened. While other publications wait for the obvious, we identify the warning signs early.
The Coaches Hot Seat newsletter delivers:
Weekly hot seat rankings with data-driven predictions
Inside analysis on coaching moves before they’re announced
The real financial stories behind hiring and firing decisions
Zero fluff, zero access journalism, zero protecting feelings
Because college football moves fast.
And the programs that survive are the ones that see what’s coming next—not the ones caught reacting to what already happened.
College football’s coaching carousel spins fastest in September, when preseason optimism crashes into Week 1 reality and exposes the coaches who spent the offseason building excuses instead of building programs.
While ESPN debates which coaches are “on the bubble,” smart money watches the programs where fan forums have already turned toxic, ticket sales have quietly declined, and athletic directors start making those carefully worded statements about “evaluating all aspects of our program.” These aren’t the coaches having one bad game—these are the coaches whose foundational problems just got exposed under the bright lights, and no amount of spin can change what everyone saw on Saturday.
The hot seat isn’t about one loss; it’s about the pattern of problems that one loss reveals, and some coaches just proved they’re exactly who we thought they were.
#1: Sonnie Cumbie – Louisiana Tech
The Master of Bare Minimum Achievement
Sonny Cumbie has mastered the most dangerous skill in college football: being just competent enough to survive another week.
The brutal numbers tell his story:
7-17 overall record across two seasons at Louisiana Tech
Beat FCS Southeastern Louisiana 24-0 in Week 1—exactly what any Power 5 program should do
Perfected coaching limbo: too successful to fire immediately, too mediocre to ever feel safe
Louisiana Tech fans have completely given up hope, which ironically gives him more job security
Cumbie doesn’t hold the #1 hot seat because he’s the worst coach—he holds it because he’s trapped everyone in a cycle of lowered expectations.
#2: Scott Satterfield – Cincinnati
When 69 Yards Kills Your Season
Scott Satterfield’s season died in 60 minutes when his quarterback threw for 69 yards against Nebraska.
Cincinnati fans still have expectations, unlike programs where hope has died
0.001 behind Cumbie in hot seat rating, but might have a higher actual firing probability
Disappointed expectations create way more pressure than met low expectations
One more Nebraska-level disaster, and that microscopic gap to #1 disappears entirely.
#3: Joe Moorhead – Akron
The Statistical Art of Organized Failure
After four years and 30 losses, Joe Moorhead has turned losing into a statistical art form—and his shutout loss to Wyoming proved that organized failure is still failure.
The Year 4 reality check:
Shutout 10-0 at home by Wyoming validated every pessimistic preseason prediction
Mastered showing statistical improvement while delivering results that prove the opposite
8-30 overall record with enough time to build something—and a shutout loss is what he built
Every metric looks better except the only one that matters: points scored
Statistical improvement without wins isn’t progress—it’s just organized failure with better spreadsheets.
#4: Trent Dilfer – UAB
The 52-Point Problem
Trent Dilfer needed 52 points to beat Alabama State, and somehow that victory made his hot seat even hotter.
When offense isn’t enough:
520 total yards, capable QB play, zero turnovers—the offense clearly works
Gave up 42 points to an FCS team that shouldn’t score 20 (defensive malpractice)
7-18 record in Year 3 means zero margin for error
Two seasons of roster overhauls haven’t fixed the fundamental problem
In college football, being able to coach only one side of the ball isn’t a recipe for job security—it’s a recipe for updating your resume.
#5: Brent Venables – Oklahoma
Following Legends at a Program That Demands Perfection
Brent Venables crushed Illinois State 35-3, and Oklahoma fans are still holding their breath because beating FCS teams is just Tuesday at Oklahoma.
The championship standard reality:
Following Bob Stoops and Lincoln Riley means even dominant wins feel like pop quizzes
6-7 in 2024 was completely unacceptable to a fanbase that expects championships
Brutal SEC schedule ahead will determine if Year 3 is a breakthrough or a breakdown
Venables did what was required in Week 1, but at Oklahoma, coaches either become legends or become former coaches—there’s no middle ground.
Other Coaches We’re Watching After Week 1:
#7: Kalen Deboer – Alabama
The Fastest Hot Seat Elevation in History
Kalen DeBoer experienced the fastest hot seat elevation in college football history, jumping from #85 to #7 after one loss, proving that coaching at Alabama means living in a different reality.
The Saban shadow effect:
Lost 31-17 to unranked Florida State as #8-ranked team (institutional panic mode activated)
Offensive struggles (341 yards, only 17 points) plus defensive breakdowns in Year 2
Alabama doesn’t grade on curves—they grade on championships
Following Nick Saban means one bad game can define everything
DeBoer learned that at Alabama, losing to unranked teams isn’t championship behavior, and championship behavior is the only acceptable standard.
#15: DeShaun Foster – UCLA
When Paranoia Becomes Performance
Deshaun Foster spent eight months building walls around his UCLA program, then got embarrassed 43-10 at home by Utah, turning those walls into a spotlight on his failure.
The media strategy backfire:
Shut out media, tighter restrictions, eliminated distractions—the team looked completely unprepared anyway
Destroyed 43-10 at home (220 total yards vs Utah’s 492) in Year 2
Big Ten relevance demands visible improvement, not the same fundamental problems
Media restrictions only work if you deliver results—blowouts amplify the disaster
Foster played high-stakes poker with UCLA’s credibility and lost big, and now everyone’s watching him try to rescue himself from a disaster of his own making.
#17: Dave Aranda – Baylor
Getting Out-Coached by the More Desperate Guy
Dave Aranda’s 38-24 loss to Auburn wasn’t just disappointing—it was a masterclass in getting out-coached by a coach who was supposed to be in more trouble.
The preparation failure:
Allowed 307 rushing yards to a team that averaged 165.5/game
Managed only 64 rushing yards when Baylor averaged 178.8/game last season
Lost to Hugh Freeze (ranked #6 on hot seat)—more desperate coach out-prepared him
Year 3 expectations meant progress, not regression against the 5-7 Auburn team
When the coach ranked 28 spots higher on the hot seat makes you look unprepared on both sides of the ball, you didn’t just lose a game—you lost credibility.
#19: Spencer Danielson – Boise State
From Under the Radar to Immediate Crisis
Spencer Danielson was flying under the radar until #25 Boise State got blown out 34-7 by unranked South Florida, and suddenly everyone’s paying attention.
The complete statistical disaster:
378 total yards but only 7 points (comprehensive red zone failure)
3 turnovers, 27-point blowout, never competitive against G5 competition
Fan unrest at the end of 2024 now looks prophetic—they saw this coming
Moved from “under the radar” to “immediate crisis” in one game
This is precisely the pattern: fan concerns emerge first, Week 1 validates those warnings, and situations escalate quickly when ignored.
The Bottom Line
These coaches didn’t just have bad games—they revealed fundamental problems that one weekend of football exposed for everyone to see.
Some will survive September and buy themselves time to fix what’s broken. Others will discover that in college football, pattern recognition happens fast, and athletic directors are watching the same games as the fans who’ve already made up their minds.
The hot seat rankings that actually matter aren’t about who gets fired first—they’re about who proves they belong in the conversation for all the wrong reasons.
We Track Coaching Pressure So You See The Warning Signs First
You just read the kind of analysis that predicted coaching changes before they happened. While other publications wait for the obvious, we identify the warning signs early.
The Coaches Hot Seat newsletter delivers:
Weekly hot seat rankings with data-driven predictions
Inside analysis on coaching moves before they’re announced
The real financial stories behind hiring and firing decisions
Zero fluff, zero access journalism, zero protecting feelings
Because college football moves fast.
And the programs that survive are the ones that see what’s coming next—not the ones caught reacting to what already happened.
Most people think October rivalry games are magical.
They’re missing the point entirely.
USC’s October Problem
While other programs optimize their schedules for conference championships, USC flies cross-country in the middle of its toughest stretch.
Notre Dame in October. Then right back into Big Ten play.
It’s like running a marathon, then immediately sprinting 400 meters while your competitors get to rest.
The Independence Advantage
Here’s what Notre Dame gets that USC doesn’t:
No conference championship game
Complete scheduling flexibility
Strategic bye weeks when they need them
Zero back-to-back rivalry pressure
Meanwhile, USC is locked into:
Cross-country travel nightmares
October scheduling chaos
Big Ten championship requirements
Playoff implications for every game
The Hidden Cost of Bad Timing
This isn’t just about football.
Every high performer faces the same scheduling trap. That monthly client call during your busiest week. The annual conference is right before your biggest deadline. The tradition that worked perfectly 10 years ago, but now creates unnecessary friction.
We keep these commitments because they are important to us. Because changing them feels like giving up.
But innovative competitors know something most people don’t: timing isn’t just logistics—it’s strategy.
The Bottom Line
USC Athletic Director Jen Cohen isn’t trying to kill tradition. She’s trying to save it by making it work within reality.
The best rivalries aren’t preserved by blind loyalty. They’re maintained by smart adaptation.
Your calendar is your competitive advantage. Protect it like your career depends on it.
Because it does.
Tired of surface-level college football takes? Coaches Hot Seat delivers the analysis that actually matters. Rankings Tuesday, deep breakdowns Friday. Join for free.
The starting point for tracking coaching pressure all season long.
Every coach occupies their spot heading into Week 1. But here’s the thing—these rankings are dynamic. They move every single week based on wins, losses, and the political reality inside each program.
Someone in our Top 5 can win their way down the list. It’s equally possible for a coach ranked 100th out of 136 to find themselves in serious trouble by October.
The hot seat never stays still.
That’s why you need to check back every Tuesday during football season. We’ll show you who’s trending down (breathing easier) and who’s trending up (heading for trouble).
Because in college football, your job security changes faster than a fumble recovery.
Here are the coaches starting the season in the most danger:
1. Sonny Cumbie, Louisiana Tech
Why Sonny Cumbie Owns the Hottest Seat in College Football This Season
Louisiana Tech’s Sonny Cumbie enters Year Four with an 11-26 record and mounting pressure after three consecutive losing seasons.
His .297 winning percentage and 0.574 Hot Seat Rating signal he’s been underwater since Day One, far below the 1.0 threshold for meeting expectations.
The trajectory shows no recruiting momentum while fans still remember Skip Holtz’s consistent winning, making patience increasingly scarce.
Coaches in this position rarely recover—by Year Four, you either show tangible progress or the program shows you the door.
Unless Cumbie delivers a miracle turnaround in 2025, his seat isn’t just hot—it’s burning.
2. Scott Satterfield, Cincinnati
The Six-Win Ultimatum: Why Scott Satterfield’s Job—and Cincinnati’s Future—Hangs in the Balance In 2025
Scott Satterfield is out of time after two bruising, back-to-back losing seasons at Cincinnati, with everything on the line across twelve Saturdays.
He’s trailing the ghost of Luke Fickell’s 53-10 legacy and playoff success, while his own .333 win rate signals trouble for a fanbase starved for relevance.
Nine months removed from five straight losses and high-profile staff departures, every decision is under the microscope as he feels the pressure of his buyout clause.
Quarterback Brendan Sorsby must cut turnovers while the team needs six wins for bowl eligibility—anything less might mean packing bags.
For a proud program where mediocrity isn’t an option, “hot seat” might not be hot enough in 2025.
3.Joe Moorhead, Akron
Joe Moorhead’s Statistical Masterpiece of Losing
Joe Moorhead has cracked the code on making college football statistics look respectable while losing games at an alarming rate.
His Akron teams generate impressive numbers—like Ben Finley’s 378 yards and four touchdowns in an 11-point loss to Buffalo—but have dropped 10 one-score games in two years, including five by a field goal or less.
With a 0.659 Hot Seat Rating and an 8-28 record over three seasons, Moorhead’s offensive schemes produce yards and individual stats that suggest competence, yet his teams consistently fail when games hang in the balance.
The cruel mathematics reveal that when you have explosive receivers, a productive quarterback, and reliable kicking, but still struggle to win, the problem isn’t talent—it’s execution under pressure.
Moorhead was supposed to be the offensive mastermind who would solve Akron’s perpetual losing problem, but instead became the poster child for why coordinating success and leading it require entirely different skill sets.
4. Brent Venables, Oklahoma
Brent Venables Faces 8 Top 25 Teams In 2025. Here’s Why This Will Be His Last Season At Oklahoma
Most people think coaching success is about X’s and O’s, but Brent Venables learned the hard way that your past success means nothing when the game changes around you.
His first SEC season at Oklahoma produced a 6-7 record with just 24 points per game—the program’s lowest scoring output since the 1990s—proving that elite coordinator credentials don’t automatically translate to head coaching success in a new conference.
The SEC’s unforgiving arms race exposes recruiting misses and tactical weaknesses that Oklahoma could hide in the Big 12, with eight projected Top 25 opponents in 2025, including Michigan, LSU, Texas, Alabama, and Tennessee.
247Sports ranks Venables as college football’s most embattled coach entering 2025, with Vegas projecting a middle-tier SEC finish while fans demand results over explanations from their well-resourced program.
In Norman, nobody gets remembered for coming close—and anything less than a winning season could end his tenure.
5. Trent Dilfer, UAB
UAB Passed Over A 7-6 Interim Coach To Hire Trent Dilfer. 2 Years Later, Dilfer Is 7-17, And That Coach Beat Him 32-6.
UAB Athletic Director Mark Ingram chose the shiny object in 2022, hiring former NFL quarterback Trent Dilfer over interim coach Bryant Vincent despite Vincent’s 7-6 record.
Two years later, Dilfer sits at 7-17 with zero road wins while Vincent’s Louisiana Monroe team beat Dilfer’s UAB squad 32-6 this season, highlighting the missed opportunity.
Athletic directors consistently get starstruck by NFL pedigree, mistaking name recognition for competence and assuming Super Bowl rings translate to recruiting ability, ignoring that college coaching requires relationship-building with 18-year-olds, not managing millionaire adults.
Former NFL players often struggle because they’ve never learned to develop teenagers, recruit prospects, manage boosters, or navigate the transfer portal—skills that proven college coaches possess for a reason.
The next time an athletic director gets stars in their eyes over a former NFL player, remember that sometimes the best hire is the one standing right in front of you, even if they’re not the most exciting candidate.
6. Hugh Freeze, Auburn
Auburn’s Hugh Freeze Sits At #6 On Our Hot Seat Rankings. Here’s Why 2025 Will Either Save His Career Or End It.
Hugh Freeze has methodically eliminated every excuse a coach could have after two straight losing seasons at Auburn, leaving himself nowhere to hide in Year 3.
He landed Jackson Arnold, a former 5-star transfer quarterback from Oklahoma, while building back-to-back top-10 recruiting classes filled with blue-chip prospects and adding 19 strategic transfer portal additions.
Auburn avoids Texas this season and hosts both Alabama and Georgia at home, creating a more favorable schedule than recent years, while Freeze publicly admits “we’ve got to go to a bowl game.”
In 12 seasons as a head coach, Freeze has missed bowl eligibility exactly twice—his scandal-plagued final year at Ole Miss and his rebuilding year at Auburn—and lightning doesn’t strike three times for coaches who want to survive.
Hugh Freeze has built the perfect team to save his career, and now he has to prove he deserves it.
7. Brent Pry, Virginia Tech
Virginia Tech’s Brent Pry Fired 3 Coaches And Replaced 30 Players To Save His Job. Here’s Why These Desperate Moves Will Get Him Fired Instead
Most people think college football coaches get fired for losing games, but they actually get fired for making desperate moves that prove they never understood why they were losing in the first place.
After going 16-21 over three seasons, Virginia Tech’s Brent Pry fired his coordinators not strategically but politically, sending the message that “the problem wasn’t me—it was them” while proving he can’t take responsibility for his failures.
Pry lost his top running back (1,159 yards, 15 TDs) and best pass rusher (16 sacks) to the transfer portal, then added 30 strangers who’ve never played together, creating roster panic instead of building chemistry that takes years to develop.
He’s asking the impossible: 30 new players to trust each other, learn new systems from two new coordinators, and execute under pressure while their head coach’s job hangs in the balance—a recipe for chaos and meltdown.
Once you start making desperate moves, you’ve already lost because you’re no longer building a program—you’re just surviving until you get fired.
8. Tony Elliott, Virginia
Tony Elliott Has 8 Regular Season Games To Save His Virginia Coaching Career
Tony Elliott enters 2025 with 11 wins and 23 losses over three years at Virginia, but there’s only one number that matters now: 8.
Elliott finally has everything he said he needed—Chandler Morris from TCU (5,500+ career passing yards), Mitchell Melton from Ohio State, 7 home games, and no Clemson or Miami on the schedule—which means he’s completely out of excuses.
His track record suggests deeper problems with 4-8 records in one-score games, averaging 5+ penalties per game, and losing his starting quarterback to the transfer portal—patterns that go beyond bad luck.
The math is brutally simple: win 8 games and keep his job, win 7 or fewer and update his LinkedIn, with no middle ground or “moral victory” season that saves him after three years of disappointment.
Elliott finally has the perfect setup for success, and 2025 is his moment to prove he deserves it.
9. Sam Pittman, Arkansas
Sam Pittman Has A 30-31 Record At Arkansas. Here’s Why He’s The SEC’s Most Undervalued Coach
Sam Pittman enters 2025 with a 30-31 overall record and the narrative that another mediocre season means goodbye, but here’s what nobody talks about: he’s the SEC’s third-longest tenured coach with his current team.
Only Kirby Smart at Georgia and Mark Stoops at Kentucky have been around longer, proving that while other programs churn through coaches, Arkansas stuck with their guy through rebuilds, growing pains, and SEC brutality.
Pittman has built five years of recruiting relationships, institutional knowledge most coaches never get, a cultural foundation that takes time to develop, and three bowl wins that demonstrate his program’s progress.
With Taylen Green returning (3,756 total yards), Bobby Petrino in his second year calling plays, and a transfer portal haul ranked 8th nationally, the complete roster reconstruction offers a fresh start for his foundation to bear fruit.
The 2025 season will prove whether college football still rewards patience or if it only rewards wins—and whether the best hire is sometimes the guy who stays long enough to see his vision through.
10. Billy Napier, Florida
Florida’s Championship Window Opens in 2025
Most college football fans think Florida is still years away from competing for titles, but the Gators have quietly assembled all the pieces for a breakthrough season in 2025.
DJ Lagway isn’t just another promising quarterback—he’s a generational talent who went 6-1 in his starts as a true freshman, beating ranked LSU and Ole Miss while leading all SEC returners with a 52.8% completion rate on deep balls.
Florida’s top-10 recruiting class brings elite defensive backs and game-changing receivers, while four returning offensive line starters provide crucial stability and defensive coaching upgrades address last season’s major weaknesses.
After winning just 11 games in Napier’s first two seasons, the Gators closed 2024 with four straight wins and their first bowl victory since 2019, showing the culture has shifted when nobody was paying attention.
Championship windows don’t announce themselves with fanfare—they open quietly when talent meets opportunity, and Florida’s window is creaking open right now.
Don’t Miss A Single Coaching Move This Season
These rankings are just the beginning. Every Tuesday, we’ll update these hot seat rankings based on the weekend’s results, showing you exactly who’s trending up (heading for trouble) and who’s trending down (breathing easier). Because in college football, a coach can go from safe to fired in three weeks flat.
But here’s where it gets really interesting: our Friday newsletters dive deep into the stories behind the rankings. We’ll break down the political dynamics inside each program, analyze recruiting momentum, and give you the insider perspective on which coaches are actually fighting for their jobs versus which ones just look like they are.
Think of it as your weekly coaching intelligence report. While everyone else is guessing who might get fired, you’ll know exactly why it’s happening and when it’s coming.
Subscribe to our newsletter and get:
Tuesday Rankings: Updated hot seat positions for all 136 coaches
Friday Deep Dives: The real stories behind the coaching pressure
Insider analysis you won’t find anywhere else
First access to coaching movement predictions before they hit the mainstream
The hot seat never stays still, and neither should your information advantage.
Everyone pretends to be shocked when a coach gets fired after 3 straight losing seasons.
As if the writing wasn’t on the wall the entire time. Louisiana Tech head coach Sonny Cumbie enters his fourth season in 2025 with our hot seat rating of 0.574 (where 1.0 represents meeting expectations and anything below signals mounting pressure) and a .297 winning percentage. Translation: he’s cooked. Done. Finished.
The only question isn’t whether he’ll get fired, but when.
This Was Always Going To Happen
Cumbie took over Louisiana Tech in December 2021 with one selling point: offensive innovation.
This was the guy who was once the highest-paid offensive coordinator in college football at TCU. The air raid genius. The quarterback whisperer. Fast forward to 2024, and he’s giving up play-calling duties four games into the season.
Think about that for a second.
You hire a chef because he makes the world’s best pasta, and then four months later he’s asking someone else to cook the pasta because he can’t figure out the recipe anymore. That’s Sonny Cumbie at Louisiana Tech.
His record speaks for itself:
2022: 3-9
2023: 3-9
2024: 5-8
Three straight losing seasons. The program hasn’t had a winning record since 2019, which means under both Skip Holtz’s final year (3-9) and Cumbie’s entire tenure, Louisiana Tech has been irrelevant.
But here’s where it gets fascinating.
The Defense Got Better, The Offense Got Worse
In 2024, something magical happened on defense.
Louisiana Tech went from allowing 39.2 points per game in 2022 and 33.4 in 2023 to just 21.0 points per game in 2024. They ranked top 3 in Conference USA and top 15 nationally in total defense. Know what Cumbie did? He fired defensive coordinator Scott Power and hired Jeremiah Johnson.
Smart move. Problem solved.
While the defense found its footing, the offense lost its way completely:
Yards per game dropped: 392 (2022) to 332.9 (2024)
Offensive line couldn’t protect anybody
Running game was nonexistent
Eventually had to give up play-calling
So he handed the play-calling over to someone else.
Here’s what’s wild about this situation.
Conference USA Should Be Easy Money
You know what Conference USA looks like after realignment?
A watered-down version of its former self. Programs left for better conferences. The competition got weaker. The path to success got clearer. And Louisiana Tech still couldn’t figure it out.
The disappointing numbers tell the story:
Conference record in 2024: 4-4
Road record under Cumbie: 2-17
Bowl appearances: 1 (only because Marshall opted out)
Four and four in conference play. In a league that should theoretically be easier to dominate than ever before. Two wins in 17 road games since taking over.
That’s not bad luck. That’s not external factors. That’s coaching.
Teams that can’t win on the road can’t win when things get uncomfortable. They fold under pressure. They make mistakes at critical moments.
They’re not mentally tough enough to handle adversity.
But There’s More At Stake Than Just Wins And Losses
Here’s where Athletic Director Ryan Ivey found himself in a tough spot.
Cumbie signed a five-year deal worth $4.85 million with a base salary that hit $1 million by 2024. Firing him means:
Paying a buyout
Paying to hire someone new
Paying that new coach a competitive salary
For a program like Louisiana Tech, that’s real money.
But here’s what administrators never want to acknowledge: keeping a losing coach costs more than firing him. Losing seasons mean fewer ticket sales. Fewer donations. Less corporate sponsorship. Lower TV revenue. Decreased enrollment interest.
The financial damage compounds every year you wait.
Louisiana Tech made one bowl game under Cumbie—the 2024 Independence Bowl—and they only got that because Marshall opted out due to transfer portal losses. They lost to Army 27-6. That’s not progress.
That’s charity.
The 2025 Reality Check
CBS Sports ranked Cumbie as the only coach in the “Win or be fired” category with a perfect 5.0 rating from nine expert evaluators.
Translation: everyone who covers college football knows what’s coming. The schedule gives him a chance—manageable Conference USA opponents—but also exposes him to road trips to LSU and Washington State. Given his 2-17 road record, those games look like guaranteed losses.
Even with some positive developments, the challenges are mounting:
Defensive improvement shows he can make changes
But the offensive line lost key players to the transfer portal
Tony Franklin hired as new offensive coordinator
Yet history suggests desperation hires rarely work
The offensive line lost Ja’Marion Kennedy to Wake Forest and Zarian McGill to Colorado, which means the unit that was already struggling just got worse.
Here’s the thing about desperation moves.
Why This Matters Beyond Louisiana Tech
College football is brutal.
Coaches get hired based on potential and fired based on results. There’s no participation trophy for “trying hard” or “building culture” when you’re 11-26 over three seasons. Cumbie’s situation represents everything problematic about how programs evaluate coaching hires.
They fell in love with his reputation instead of his results:
Assumed past success would automatically translate
Ignored warning signs about fit and system
Wanted to believe instead of evaluating reality
Louisiana Tech has proud football traditions. Conference championships. Bowl victories. Relevant seasons.
Under Cumbie, they’ve had none of that.
The Bottom Line
Sonny Cumbie is facing near-certain dismissal.
Whether it comes after early setbacks in 2025 or at the season’s end, the odds are stacked against him. The only question is how much damage Louisiana Tech is willing to accept while they delay what appears inevitable.
Because here’s what nobody wants to say out loud: keeping a struggling coach doesn’t protect the program’s future.
It jeopardizes it.
Our hot seat rating of 0.574 for Cumbie isn’t just a number. It’s a warning label. And everyone except the people making decisions seems to understand what it means.
Want to know which coach gets fired next?
You just read the kind of analysis that predicted coaching changes before they happened. While other publications wait for the obvious, we identify the warning signs early.
The Coaches Hot Seat newsletter delivers:
Weekly hot seat rankings with data-driven predictions
Inside analysis on coaching moves before they’re announced
The real financial stories behind hiring and firing decisions
Zero fluff, zero access journalism, zero protecting feelings
Because college football moves fast.
And the programs that survive are the ones that see what’s coming next—not the ones caught reacting to what already happened.
Trent Dilfer is coaching for his job at UAB. And based on two years of evidence, he’s going to lose it. The numbers don’t lie. A 7-17 record. A .292 winning percentage. Zero road wins in 24 months. And a hot seat rating of 0.715 that has him ranked as the fifth most endangered coach in college football.
This isn’t speculation.
This is math.
The Problem With Hiring Names Instead Of Coaches
Athletic Director Mark Ingram made a classic mistake in 2022.
He got starstruck. Instead of promoting interim coach Bryant Vincent—who had just led UAB to a 7-6 record—Ingram chased the shiny object. He wanted the former NFL quarterback. The Super Bowl winner. The ESPN analyst with name recognition.
“I’m not hiring a high school football coach,” Ingram said at the time. “I’m hiring the number six overall pick in the NFL draft.”
Wrong.
You were hiring a high school football coach who happened to be a former NFL player. And there’s a massive difference between those two things. The irony? Bryant Vincent—the guy Ingram passed over—is now coaching Louisiana Monroe to potential bowl eligibility. Meanwhile, Dilfer’s UAB team got obliterated 32-6 by Vincent’s Warhawks to open the 2024 season.
That’s not just bad luck.
That’s institutional malpractice.
When The Numbers Tell The Whole Story
Here’s how badly things have collapsed under Dilfer.
2023 to 2024 regression:
Passing accuracy: 71.7% → 63.7% (catastrophic)
Total offense: 450 yards/game → 392.5 yards/game
Rushing: 161.1 yards/game → 130.9 yards/game
Turnovers per game: 1.7 → 2.1
You don’t accidentally get worse at this many things. This is a systematic failure. The defense was even more brutal. UAB allowed 212.9 rushing yards per game in 2024—among the worst in the country. They gave up 34.2 points per game and finished 120th in scoring defense.
Six different opponents ran for more than 190 yards against them.
That’s not a personnel problem. That’s a coaching problem.
The Hail Mary
Dilfer knows he’s drowning.
So he’s throwing everything at the wall. New defensive coordinator Steve Russ brings legitimate credibility—two Super Bowl rings and six years of NFL coaching experience. The entire defensive staff was rebuilt with over 40 years of combined NFL experience.
Through the transfer portal, 19 players left, but 13+ new faces arrived:
Quarterback Ryder Burton from West Virginia
Running back Jevon Jackson from UTEP
Wide receiver Kaleb Brown from Iowa
When you flip half your roster in one offseason, you’re not building a program.
You’re admitting the previous two years were a complete waste of time.
The Tone-Deaf Moments That Define Him
But here’s what shows you who Trent Dilfer is as a coach.
After a September loss, he dismissed criticism by saying, “It’s not like this is freakin’ Alabama.” Think about that for a second. Your job is to build excitement around your program. Your job is to sell hope to your fanbase. And instead, you’re publicly lowering expectations and making excuses.
Even worse? On a UAB-produced podcast, Dilfer promoted Louisville’s volleyball program—where his daughter played—over UAB’s volleyball team. At the same time, his own Athletic Director tried to defend UAB’s program on the same podcast.
That’s not just tone-deaf.
That’s sabotage.
The Math On His Future
Oddsmakers set UAB’s win total at 4.5 games for 2025.
The under is favored. Most national previews have UAB finishing 13th out of 14 teams in the AAC. The schedule includes Tennessee, Memphis, Army, and Navy—teams that will expose every weakness.
To reach bowl eligibility, UAB needs to double its 2024 win total. Based on two years of evidence, that’s not happening. The financial reality makes it worse. UAB owes Dilfer $3.6 million if they fire him after 2025, dropping to $2.4 million after the season.
But keeping a failing coach to save money is how programs die.
Why This Matters Beyond UAB
This is a cautionary tale about the modern college football hiring process.
UAB had a program with momentum. Bill Clark had built something special before health issues forced his resignation. Bowl games. Competitive teams. Hope. Dilfer inherited a functional program and systematically destroyed it through inexperience and poor judgment.
The lesson?
Past playing success doesn’t translate to coaching success
Name recognition doesn’t win games
When you hire someone for the wrong reasons, you get predictable results
The Verdict
Trent Dilfer will coach the 2025 season at UAB.
But he won’t coach the 2026 season. The comprehensive staff changes and roster overhaul might buy him a few extra wins. But fundamentally, nothing has changed. He’s still the same coach who has never won a road game in college football.
Athletic Director Mark Ingram will eventually have to admit his mistake.
The question isn’t if—it’s when. UAB fans deserve better than watching their program become a cautionary tale. They deserve better than a coach who publicly diminishes their school while collecting a $1.3 million salary.
The 2025 season will be Trent Dilfer’s last at UAB.
Everyone knows it, including him.
The clock isn’t just ticking. It’s about to expire.
Three seasons into his tenure at Akron, the veteran coach sits on college football’s third-hottest seat with a 0.659 Hot Seat Rating™ in the Coaches Hot Seat® rankings. This number reflects significant underperformance against expectations, where 1.0 represents meeting expectations and anything below signals mounting pressure. His 8-28 record tells the story of a program trapped between statistical improvement and actual wins, a cruel mathematical reality that has defined his existence in Ohio.
The numbers reveal a stunning contradiction: a supposed offensive mastermind who can’t win games.
The Statistical Paradox That Defines Frustration
Moorhead’s three-year journey at Akron reads like a case study in how progress doesn’t always equal success.
2022 Season Reality:
Record: 2-10
Offense: 21.6 points per game
Defense: 33.5 points allowed per game
The diagnosis: An offense with potential, destroyed by defensive incompetence
2023 Season Nightmare:
Record: 2-10 (again)
Offense: 16.3 points per game (brutal regression)
Defense: 28.0 points allowed per game (solid improvement)
The diagnosis: Fixed defense, broken offense—same losing result
2024 Season Mockery:
Record: 4-8 (modest improvement)
Offense: 20.4 points per game (rebound)
Defense: 32.0 points allowed per game (regression)
The diagnosis: One step forward, one step back, still losing
Here’s what makes this maddening: Moorhead himself admits they’ve had “10 one-score losses in two years, including five by a field goal or less and four of those in overtime.”
These aren’t blowouts suggesting systemic failure.
These are heartbreaking defeats that reveal a program tantalizingly close to competence but consistently unable to cross the finish line.
When Statistics Lie: The Buffalo Game That Broke Everyone’s Brain
Last season’s 41-30 loss to Buffalo perfectly encapsulated Akron’s mathematical impossibility.
The numbers that should have meant victory:
Akron outgained Buffalo 452-390 total yards
Dominated through the air 378-210 in passing yards
Won the third-down battle 43% to 23%
Ben Finley threw for 378 yards and four touchdowns
The reality that happened: Buffalo spotted a 38-7 lead before Akron remembered how to play football.
When your quarterback throws for 378 yards and four touchdowns but you still lose by double digits, the problem isn’t talent—it’s execution, culture, and coaching.
Individual Brilliance Wasted by Collective Incompetence
The 2024 roster showcased exactly the kind of talent that should translate to wins.
Offensive weapons that should have dominated:
Adrian Norton: 831 receiving yards, 19.3 yards per catch, 7 touchdowns
Ben Finley: 2,604 passing yards, 16 touchdowns over 12 games
Jordon Simmons: 664 rushing yards on 6.0 yards per carry
Garrison Smith: 81.3% field goal accuracy
The coaching failure: When you have explosive playmakers at every skill position and a reliable kicker, yet still struggle to win games, the responsibility falls squarely on scheme execution and leadership.
These individual performances should have combined to create a winning formula.
Instead, they highlighted the coaching staff’s inability to synthesize talent into consistent team success.
The Defensive Regression That Destroyed Progress
Here’s where Moorhead’s tenure becomes truly damning.
After limiting opponents to 335.0 yards per game in 2023, the 2024 defense collapsed to allowing 414.4 yards per contest—nearly returning to the abysmal 2022 levels.
The regression wasn’t subtle:
Pass defense: Opponents completed 64.4% (up from 55.9% in 2023)
Run defense: Allowed 183.3 yards per game on 4.6 yards per carry
Takeaways: Just 7 interceptions and 9 fumble recoveries in 12 games
Turnover rate: 1.3 per game (pathetic for modern college football)
In a sport where possessions are precious, this defensive inability to create turnovers severely limited Akron’s margin for error.
The 2025 Roster Overhaul: Desperation or Smart Strategy?
Understanding the pressure he faces, Moorhead has aggressively addressed roster deficiencies.
Defensive reinforcements:
Over 10 new defensive linemen
Multiple linebacker additions
Several players exceeding 290 pounds
New cornerbacks and safeties for improved coverage
Offensive upgrades:
Multiple running backs over 205 pounds
Offensive line featuring players over 300 pounds
Reduced dependence on individual playmakers
Better short-yardage reliability
The critical question: Will these roster upgrades translate to actual wins, or just better statistics in losing efforts?
Schedule Reality: Opportunity and Pitfalls
The 2025 schedule presents both hope and danger.
Non-conference games:
Wyoming (winnable)
Nebraska (measuring stick against Power Five)
UAB (should win)
Duquesne (must win)
MAC schedule challenges:
Eight conference games, including Toledo and Central Michigan
Potentially favorable matchups against UMass and Kent State
More home games late in the season
The pressure point: If Akron stumbles in winnable non-conference games or struggles early in MAC play, the familiar pattern of close losses and moral victories could quickly resurrect coaching change discussions.
The Cultural Problem That Statistics Can’t Fix
The psychological burden of consistent losing has infected this program’s DNA.
When players and coaches expect close games to slip away in the fourth quarter, those expectations often become reality. Breaking this cycle requires more than tactical adjustments—it demands a complete cultural shift that validates belief in eventual success.
Moorhead’s track record suggests understanding:
Previous championship experience at multiple stops
Background as an offensive innovator
History of developing NFL-caliber talent
The concerning pattern: His previous head coaching stint at Mississippi State ended in frustration despite superior talent, raising questions about his ability to maintain program culture over extended periods.
Make-or-Break Mathematics
The 2025 season represents Moorhead’s final realistic opportunity to demonstrate sustained improvement.
The brutal math:
Overall FBS head coaching record: 22-40
Akron record: 8-28 over three seasons
Hot seat rating: 0.659 (third-hottest in FBS)
Winning percentage: .222
The irony: Moorhead was supposed to be the sure thing—the experienced head coach, the familiar face, the proven winner. Instead, he’s become living proof that coordinating success and leading it are entirely different skills.
Another disappointing campaign would likely end his tenure and potentially damage his reputation as a coordinator candidate.
Bottom Line: Incremental Progress Isn’t Enough
Akron’s 2025 season will be defined by whether Moorhead can finally convert statistical improvement and individual talent into actual victories.
The roster upgrades provide tools for success.
The schedule offers winnable opportunities.
The pressure demands immediate results.
The simple equation: With a 0.659 hot seat rating and his track record at Akron, Moorhead needs wins—not moral victories, not improved statistics, but actual wins that demonstrate tangible program advancement.
For a program that has managed just 8 victories in 36 games under his leadership, 2025 represents far more than another season of development.
It’s the final calculation in determining whether Joe Moorhead can solve Akron’s perpetual problem of underachievement, or whether his tenure will become another cautionary tale about the difference between coordinating brilliance and leading it.
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Bad team hires a new coach. Coach rebuilds slowly over three years. Maybe they win some games, maybe they don’t. But what’s happening at UNLV right now isn’t that story at all.
This is something completely different.
The Foundation That Was Already Perfect
This wasn’t a broken program that needed fixing.
UNLV just finished an 11-3 season with 495 points scored and only 298 allowed. They made their first Mountain West Championship Game appearance ever and won a bowl game over California. Barry Odom had built the best two-year run in program history.
So what did Dan Mullen do when he got hired?
He tore it apart and started over. The numbers that prove this program was already elite: 416.1 yards per game on offense, 23 forced turnovers on defense, and their first winning streak since 1984. Most coaches would have been thrilled to inherit this foundation.
Mullen decided it wasn’t enough.
The Move That Makes No Sense (Until You Think About It)
Here’s what most coaches would have done with this situation.
Keep the core players who delivered 11 wins. Build around the existing foundation that just reached a championship game. Make small tweaks and ride the momentum Barry Odom created.
Mullen did the exact opposite.
He brought in 20+ Power Four transfers and created competition at every position. He rebuilt both the offensive and defensive systems from scratch. The quarterback room tells the whole story: instead of rolling with returning senior Cameron Friel, he added Anthony Colandrea from Virginia and Alex Orji from Michigan.
Most coaches avoid that kind of chaos.
Why This Strategy Actually Makes Perfect Sense
Here’s what people don’t understand about Dan Mullen.
He’s done this before at Mississippi State and Florida. At Mississippi State, he took a program that had never been ranked No. 1 and put them atop the first College Football Playoff rankings in 2014. His quarterback development track record includes Dak Prescott, Tim Tebow, and Kyle Trask.
This isn’t gambling—it’s pattern recognition.
When Jake Pope (Alabama/Georgia transfer) says, “Guys jelled really fast. I like the culture we have created,” that’s not luck. It’s systematic culture building that Mullen has perfected over 15 years. The same process that turned Mississippi State into a playoff contender is now happening in Las Vegas.
That’s why this actually works.
The 3 Reasons This Could Work
Reason 1: Competition Creates Excellence
Nobody’s position is guaranteed when you bring in 20+ Power Four transfers.
The former Alabama safety has to prove he’s better than the returning starter. The Michigan quarterback has to prove he’s better than the Virginia transfer. This creates immediate urgency where most teams spend months building chemistry.
These players are fighting for their careers from day one.
Reason 2: Mullen’s Cultural Blueprint
Chief Borders followed Mullen from Florida to Las Vegas for a reason.
“Work like a pro and act like one,” Borders explains. “It all starts with laying down that foundation and how we treat each other.” This isn’t about talent acquisition—it’s about culture transformation that Mullen has perfected.
The system matters more than the players.
Reason 3: The Schedule Sets Up Perfectly
UNLV’s 2025 schedule creates the perfect testing ground.
UCLA provides a winnable Power 5 game early. Road games at Boise State and Colorado State are the real championship tests. Sportsbooks set their win total at 8.5 games—the highest in program history.
The betting market believes in this transformation.
The Financial Pressure That Changes Everything
UNLV paid Mullen $17.5 million and can’t afford for this to fail.
Season ticket sales jumped from 4,061 to 5,031 before the season started. Revenue increased from $1.8M to $2.5M, driven solely by hiring excitement. The athletic department is betting everything on immediate success, not gradual improvement.
This isn’t a rebuilding project with patience.
The 2 Ways This Ends
Scenario 1: Complete Success
Mullen’s transfer strategy works, and team chemistry develops quickly.
They beat UCLA in a statement game and split with Boise State on the road. The Mountain West Championship becomes a realistic goal, and College Football Playoff talk begins. UNLV transforms from regional story to national phenomenon.
Everyone calls Mullen a genius.
Scenario 2: Spectacular Failure
Too many new players create chemistry problems and identity confusion.
The offense struggles without Hajj-Malik Williams’ 2,800 combined yards. The defense can’t replace Jackson Woodard’s 135 tackles and leadership. Four or five losses waste all the momentum Barry Odom built.
Mullen’s reputation takes a massive hit.
Why I Think This Works
Dan Mullen has never taken the safe approach in his entire career.
At Mississippi State, he built offenses around mobile quarterbacks when that wasn’t trendy. At Florida, he developed quarterbacks that others couldn’t fix. Now at UNLV, he’s betting that talent plus competition plus culture beats continuity every time.
The early signs point toward success.
Player testimonials about rapid chemistry development are encouraging. The quality of transfer additions from Alabama, Georgia, Virginia, and Michigan is undeniable. His systematic approach to competition and accountability has worked everywhere he’s coached.
But here’s what will determine everything.
How does this team respond when they’re down 10 points at Boise State? How do they handle pressure when ESPN GameDay shows up for UCLA? Can a roster of mostly transfers develop the trust that wins championship games?
Those moments will define this entire experiment.
The Bottom Line
Dan Mullen didn’t come to UNLV to manage a good program.
He came to build a great one through complete transformation. The $17.5 million investment, 20+ Power Four transfers, and cultural overhaul represent the biggest gamble in program history. This is either the blueprint for how mid-major programs compete at the highest level or a cautionary tale about changing too much too fast.
Either way, it’s going to be fascinating to watch.
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Here’s what everyone is missing about the Southern Miss hire.
Charles Huff didn’t just take a new job. He literally copy-pasted an entire championship program from Marshall to Hattiesburg. Most coaching hires involve one person switching schools. This is different. This is importing a proven system, proven players, and proven results wholesale.
And if you understand what actually happened here, you’ll realize Southern Miss just pulled off the most aggressive program rebuild in modern college football.
This Isn’t a Coaching Change. It’s a Hostile Takeover.
Let me paint the picture:
Marshall goes 10-3, wins the Sun Belt championship, and destroys Louisiana 31-3 in the title game. Their quarterback throws 19 touchdowns with 2 interceptions. Their offense averages 382.8 yards per game. Their defense allows just 23.1 points per game.
Southern Miss goes 1-11, scores 15.3 points per game, allows 37.8 points per game, goes winless in conference play.
Normal world: Southern Miss hires a good coach and hopes he can slowly rebuild.
What actually happened: Southern Miss hired the good coach AND most of his championship team.
Key players who switched uniforms:
Braylon Braxton: Marshall’s quarterback with the 19-2 touchdown-to-interception ratio
Carl Chester: 20 catches, 342 yards, 3 touchdowns at Marshall
Tychaun Chapman: Multi-use weapon with rushing and receiving TDs
Bralon Brown: Explosive receiver from Marshall’s championship squad
Elijah Metcalf: Proven target with multiple touchdown catches
Josh Moten: Cornerback with 5 interceptions
That represents approximately 20 key contributors from Marshall’s championship team now wearing Southern Miss uniforms, creating an unprecedented roster transformation in modern college football.
This isn’t roster building. It’s roster importing.
The numbers only underscore just how dramatic this turnaround is poised to be.
The Numbers Don’t Lie (And They’re Brutal)
Here’s the gap Huff is bridging.
Quarterback play:
2024 Southern Miss QBs: 7 touchdown passes, 17 interceptions
Braylon Braxton at Marshall: 19 touchdown passes, 2 interceptions
Offensive production:
Southern Miss 2024: 283.5 yards per game
Marshall 2024: 382.8 yards per game
Scoring differential:
Southern Miss: -22.5 points per game
Marshall: +8.7 points per game
Conference results:
Southern Miss: 0-8 in Sun Belt play
Marshall: 8-1 in Sun Belt play
Same conference. Same level of competition. Completely different results.
The question isn’t whether Southern Miss will improve. The question is how much.
But understanding the statistical transformation requires examining the strategic genius behind it.
Why This Strategy Works
Most people think college football rebuilds take 3-4 years because you have to recruit high school players, develop them, install systems, and build culture.
Huff skipped all of that.
Traditional rebuild vs. Huff’s method:
Recruit 18-year-olds and hope they develop → Brought 22-year-olds who already know his system
Install new offensive and defensive schemes → Brought the same coordinators who installed those schemes at Marshall
Build championship culture → Imported players who already lived it
This is what smart business leaders do when they take over struggling companies. They don’t start from scratch.
They bring their proven team and proven processes.
The scope of this organizational transplant becomes even clearer when you examine the coaching staff changes.
The Coaching Staff Migration Tells the Real Story
Jason Semore, Marshall’s defensive coordinator who held Sun Belt offenses to 23.1 points per game? He’s now Southern Miss’s defensive coordinator.
Johnathan Galante, who coached Marshall’s top-15 nationally ranked special teams? Southern Miss special teams coordinator. Telly Lockette, who directed Marshall’s 201.7 yards per game rushing attack that ranked 19th nationally? Running backs coach at Southern Miss.
This isn’t just Charles Huff getting a new job. This is an entire championship operation relocating.
The transfer portal skeptics completely miss why this approach represents the future of college football rebuilding.
What Everyone Gets Wrong About Transfer Portal Era
Critics say the transfer portal ruins college football because players just chase money and change schools constantly.
They’re missing the point.
The transfer portal allows proven coaches to bring proven systems and proven players to new programs instantly. It allows smart programs to skip the traditional 3-4 year rebuild cycle. Southern Miss just demonstrated the blueprint: Don’t recruit and develop.
Import and deploy.
Now the practical test begins with Southern Miss’s 2025 schedule, where this transplanted championship core will face familiar competition.
The 2025 Schedule Reality Check
Southern Miss opens against Mississippi State on August 30.
That’s a measuring stick game against an SEC opponent. The Sun Belt schedule includes home games against Appalachian State, Jacksonville State, Louisiana-Monroe, Texas State, and Troy. Road tests at Georgia Southern, Louisiana, Arkansas State, and South Alabama.
Here’s what’s different: Last year, these same Marshall players went 8-1 against Sun Belt competition. Now they’re playing the same conference schedule wearing different uniforms.
The logical outcome isn’t 1-11. It’s bowl eligibility, and potentially much more.
Traditional rebuilding timelines simply don’t apply when you’re importing championship-level talent and systems.
Why Traditional Rebuilding Wisdom Is Dead
Old model: Hire coach, recruit players, install system, develop culture, hope for improvement in year 3-4.
Southern Miss just proved the new model works faster.
The evidence is overwhelming when you step back and assess what actually happened in Hattiesburg.
The Bottom Line
Charles Huff brought a 10-3 Marshall team to Southern Miss and changed the uniforms.
The quarterback who threw 19 touchdown passes with 2 interceptions is the same quarterback who will take snaps for Southern Miss. The receivers who caught those touchdown passes are the same receivers running routes in Hattiesburg. The defense that allowed 23.1 points per game at Marshall is largely the same defense taking the field for Southern Miss.
This isn’t hope and potential. This is proven production with a change of address. Southern Miss didn’t just hire a good coach.
They acquired a championship program.
Expect to see Southern Miss fighting for bowl eligibility in 2025—and if this blueprint works as designed, they’ll be competing for much more than that.
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Marshall football has no idea what they’re doing in 2025.
And that might be exactly what makes them terrifying.
While everyone else obsesses over Alabama’s quarterback battle or debates whether Georgia can repeat, the most fascinating story in college football is unfolding in Huntington, West Virginia. Tony Gibson just walked into the most impossible coaching situation in America, and he’s about to prove whether experience matters more than chaos.
The Madness Behind the Method
Let me paint you the picture of what Gibson inherited.
A Sun Belt Championship. A 10-3 record. A seven-game winning streak to end 2024. Then, in 72 hours, it all disappeared.
Charles Huff bolted for Southern Miss the day after winning Marshall’s first conference title since 2014. Thirty-six players hit the transfer portal faster than you could say “contract negotiation.”
Gone:
Three quarterbacks
The leading rusher
The top linebacker
Seventeen of 22 starters from the championship game
The roster got so decimated that Marshall couldn’t even field a team for their bowl game.
Think about that. They won a championship in December and couldn’t play football in January.
The Impossible Math Gibson Just Inherited
Gibson is 52 years old and has never been a head coach at this level.
He spent six years making NC State’s defense elite, but calling plays is different from running a program. Most first-time head coaches get rebuilding situations with time to develop. Gibson’s championship program is in free fall.
Welcome to college football’s transfer portal era, where entire rosters can disappear overnight.
Here’s how he’s attacking the impossible: Gibson signed 62 new players. Not 10. Not 20. Sixty-two. He basically built an entirely new team in four months, and according to Rivals, it’s the No. 2 transfer class in FBS.
Lost three starting quarterbacks?
Brought in Carlos Del Rio-Wilson (FBS starting experience)
Added Zion Turner (FBS starting experience)
Recruited freshman Koi Fagan from West Virginia
Now has six quarterbacks competing for one job
That’s not desperation.
The Rod Smith Factor Nobody’s Talking About
While everyone focuses on Gibson’s defensive background, they’re missing the most important hire he made.
Rod Smith as offensive coordinator.
Smith just finished turning Jacksonville State into a scoring machine:
No. 12 nationally in points per game (36.0)
No. 3 nationally in rushing (251.2 yards per game)
51 rushing touchdowns in 2024
Smith’s resume reads like a quarterback development clinic. Denard Robinson (Big Ten Offensive Player of the Year). Pat White (Big East Offensive Player of the Year). Tyler Huff at Jacksonville State.
The man has a system, and more importantly, he knows how to implement it fast.
This matters because Marshall’s 2024 offense wasn’t broken. They averaged 31.8 points per game and 382.8 yards per game with a balanced attack that rushed for 201.7 yards per contest.
Smith isn’t fixing problems—he’s amplifying strengths.
The Schedule That Reveals Everything
Marshall opens at Georgia.
In Sanford Stadium. Against a top-5 SEC team. With a completely rebuilt roster and a first-time head coach.
Most programs would call that a nightmare. Gibson calls it a measuring stick.
The beauty of starting with Georgia is that nobody expects Marshall to win. The pressure is entirely on Kirby Smart’s team. Gibson gets to see what his new pieces look like against elite competition without the weight of expectations.
Then comes the real test:
At Louisiana (the team Marshall beat for the 2024 title)
At Appalachian State
Home vs James Madison
Home vs Texas State
Home vs Georgia Southern
These aren’t rebuilding games—these are statement games.
Why the Chaos Factor Makes Marshall Dangerous
Everyone’s analyzing Marshall like they’re a normal football team.
They’re not.
Normal teams have established hierarchies, known commodities, predictable tendencies. Marshall has none of that. They’re starting fresh with players from dozens of different programs, implementing new schemes, building chemistry in real-time.
That sounds like a recipe for disaster, but it’s also what makes them impossible to prepare for.
How do you scout a team when half the roster has never played together? How do you game-plan against an offense when the quarterback competition is wide open and the coordinator is installing a completely new system?
You can’t.
The Defense That Could Surprise Everyone
While everyone worries about offensive identity, Gibson’s defensive background might be Marshall’s secret weapon.
The 2024 defense was already solid:
23.1 points per game allowed
1.5 turnovers forced per contest
Now Gibson gets to implement his 3-3-5 schemes that made NC State’s defense consistently elite.
Key returners providing the foundation:
Jacarius Clayton (defensive line, junior)
Braydin Ward (sophomore)
Mikailin Warren (sophomore)
Add Gibson’s transfer portal additions and defensive coordinator Shannon Morrison (a Marshall alum who knows the program), and this unit could be special by November.
“I Am Home”: The Message That Changes Everything
Gibson’s personal connection to West Virginia became central to his appeal.
At his introductory press conference, the Van, West Virginia native made his intentions clear: “I am home and I am staying home. This is going to be our 16th house we’re going to move into in Huntington and it’s going to be our last house.”
The homecoming message resonated with players who stayed through the transition. Returning tight end Toby Payne captured the sentiment: “Everybody that stayed wanted to be here. This place is special. It’s amazing. You’ve got the hometown feel.”
Gibson’s recruiting pitch centers on community rather than flashy promises: “We sell them on community and how much it means to the people here. It’s an easy sell to be at Marshall.”
The coach even made bold claims about in-state recruiting: “We’re going to own this state, and we’re not going to let the good players leave this state.”
That confidence reflects Gibson’s understanding that Marshall’s success depends on local investment, not just national recognition.
The Real Question Nobody’s Asking
Can Gibson make his players believe the chaos is actually order?
Sixty-two new players means 62 guys who chose Marshall specifically because of Tony Gibson. They didn’t transfer to play for the old staff or the old system.
They came to be part of something new.
That’s powerful psychology. Gibson’s not inheriting doubt—he’s creating belief. Every player on this roster is there because they bought into his vision.
Why 2025 is Make-or-Break (But Not How You Think)
Gibson doesn’t need to win the Sun Belt in Year 1.
He needs to prove the foundation is real.
The math:
Seven wins = bowl eligibility and recruiting momentum
Eight wins = legitimate Sun Belt threat
Nine wins = Huntington believes they’ve found their guy
But here’s the twist: Gibson’s biggest challenge isn’t winning games.
It’s managing expectations.
Marshall fans just watched their team win a championship. They know what success looks like, and they won’t accept mediocrity just because the roster turned over.
Gibson has to balance building for the future while competing in the present. That’s the impossible math of modern college football—where championship expectations don’t pause for roster reconstruction—and it’s about to define his career.
The Bottom Line
Tony Gibson just signed up for college football’s ultimate experiment.
Can you build a championship-level program from scratch in one offseason?
Gibson didn’t take this job to be safe. He took it to prove that chaos can be shaped into order, that experience matters less than vision, and that sometimes the best way to build something great is to start completely over.
Marshall isn’t just another Sun Belt team trying to repeat as champions.
They’re a living laboratory for what college football might become: constantly evolving, perpetually rebuilding, forever unpredictable.
And Tony Gibson? He’s either about to become a genius or a cautionary tale.
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