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Week 12 Hot Seat Rankings Reveal The New Math of Firing Coaches: When Balance Sheets Trump Box Scores

Mark Haines on November 12, 2024

Graphic by Tony Altimore @TJAltimore on X

When Money Changes Everything: College Football’s New Math

If you want to understand what’s happening in college football right now, forget about the polls, the playoff rankings, and even the win-loss records. Instead, study Tony Altimore’s (@TJAltimore on X) financial visualization of athletic department debt. This document looks less like a sports analysis and more like a hedge fund’s risk assessment of distressed assets. What Altimore has captured, in clean lines and horrifying clarity, is the moment when college football’s financial chickens have come home to roost.

The numbers are staggering enough to make a Wall Street quant nervous. Major athletic departments have the kind of revenue shortfalls that would make a leveraged buyout specialist think twice, all while trying to maintain the facade that their business model isn’t fundamentally broken. Our Hot Seat Rankings arrive in this financial maelstrom, a list that increasingly reads like a collection of toxic assets nobody knows how to value.

Consider the range of buyouts in play: Marshall could rid itself of Charles Huff for the price of a mid-level administrator’s salary ($125,917), while Baylor would need to liquidate the equivalent of a small endowment ($20-25 million) to move on from Dave Aranda. In any rational market, these numbers represent the cost of doing business. But in 2024’s college football economy, where athletic departments are juggling NIL collectives, revenue sharing, the House Settlement, facility arms races, and operational deficits that would make a venture capitalist blanch, even UMass’s relatively modest $800,000 obligation to Don Brown looks less like a buyout and more like a luxury they might not be able to afford.

We’re witnessing the emergence of a new market inefficiency: coaches who become unsackable not through their success but through the financial implications of their failure. In a world where half our Hot Seat candidates owe their job security to their buyout clauses rather than their win percentages, we’ve entered a realm where being too expensive to fire has become its own kind of competitive advantage.

Welcome to college football’s new normal, where balance sheets matter more than playbooks, and the most important numbers aren’t on the scoreboard but in the fine print of contracts that increasingly look like they were designed by derivatives traders rather than athletic directors.

Here’s our Top 10 for this week, plus a little insider information on each:

1. Don Brown – UMass

Don Brown sits atop college football’s hot seat list in a way that perfectly captures the industry’s bias for action over patience. UMass administrators, energized by their MAC invitation and staring at a manageable $800,000 buyout, seem eager to start fresh before the 2025 conference transition. The kind of institutional momentum creates its own gravity – the desire to make a splashy hire before joining a new conference to signal ambition and commitment to a brighter future. But there’s a fascinating market inefficiency at play here that nobody’s talking about: Brown might be the rare coach whose value to the program is about to increase precisely when they’re most inclined to remove him. His decades of MAC experience as a defensive coordinator at Central Michigan and Connecticut (during its MAC era) and his deep New England recruiting roots represent institutional knowledge that money can’t easily buy. UMass is preparing to make a classic institutional mistake: paying to remove expertise they’ll need to acquire again, all in service of a fresh start that might not be as fresh as they imagine. After all, the next coach will face the same fundamental challenges – navigating one more year of independence before transitioning to the MAC – with less experience in both contexts.

2. Charles Huff – Marshall

Huff’s position has improved slightly with a recent win, but he is in year 4 of a 5-year contract, and his small $125,917 buyout means Marshall could make a change without significant financial strain. His hot seat status remains high, though the recent win may have bought him some time.

3. Stan Drayton – Temple

This week, a 52 – 6 loss to Tulane has intensified the pressure on Drayton. With no specified buyout disclosed, Temple might have flexibility in making a coaching change if they decide to go that route. The program’s struggles in the American Athletic Conference likely contribute to his hot seat status.

4. Trent Dilfer – UAB

Dilfer’s hot seat status has worsened with another loss. His $4,116,667 buyout is significant for UAB, which might give him more time. However, his unusual comments, media interactions, and poor on-field results have quickly put him in a precarious position despite being only in his second year.

5. Dave Aranda – Baylor

Despite a bye week, Aranda remains on the hot seat. His substantial $20-25 million buyout is a major factor in Baylor’s decision-making process. Recent wins have improved his standing, and there’s an industry consensus that he’s trending towards returning in 2025, partly due to the financial implications of a coaching change.

6. Sam Pittman – Arkansas

Sam Pittman moves down to #6 on our Hot Seat Rankings in what might be college football’s most emotionally complicated coaching situation. He’s the kind of figure who makes fans want to invite him over for dinner while simultaneously wanting to throw their remote through the TV during games. His Arkansas team has shown improvement this year, but in a way that feels like watching a gifted student consistently turn in C+ work – there’s something both promising and maddening about it all. The blowout loss to Ole Miss exposed the fundamental disconnect: a team with SEC talent playing with the discipline of a midnight pickup game. And here’s where it gets interesting – and credit to Jackson Collier of the Hardwood Hogs Podcast (@JCHoops on X) for surfacing a contract provision that adds another layer to this Southern football soap opera: If Pittman can scrape together seven wins between Louisiana Tech and one more victory (including a potential bowl game), he triggers an automatic raise and extension. It’s the kind of clause that transforms Arkansas’s $10 million buyout decision from merely expensive to existentially complex. The boosters’ dilemma is almost Shakespearean: How do you fire someone everyone likes who’s making the team better but not as much better as it should be? Especially when the cost of doing so keeps threatening to go up?

7. Sonny Cumbie – Louisiana Tech

A loss this week has likely increased the pressure on Cumbie. With a $1,625,000 buyout, Louisiana Tech has some flexibility if it chooses to make a change. The program’s performance in Conference USA will determine his future.

8. Kevin Wilson – Tulsa

Wilson’s first season at Tulsa has been challenging, but a recent comeback win against UTSA may have improved his standing. His buyout details aren’t specified, but Tulsa’s financial situation and patience with new coaches could influence his job security.

9. Ryan Walters – Purdue

Despite the most recent 45-0 loss to Ohio State, reports suggest Walters is expected to get more time at Purdue. His $9,590,625 buyout and the administration’s recognition of NIL challenges in the Big Ten could provide him additional job security despite the team’s struggles this season.

10. Hugh Freeze – Auburn

Freeze’s $20,312,500 buyout is a significant factor in his job security. Auburn’s recent performance and Freeze’s past success at Ole Miss are considerations. While he’s on the hot seat, the financial implications of a coaching change might give him more time to turn the program around.

What’s your take? Let us know here

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Week 7 – Hot Seat Rankings Overview

Mark Haines on October 8, 2024

In college football’s high-stakes arena, where multimillion-dollar decisions hinge on the outcome of a single play, a silent countdown ticks away. We’re approaching the season’s midpoint, that critical juncture where athletic directors start crunching numbers that have nothing to do with touchdowns or field goals.

Welcome to this week’s Coaches Hot Seat Rankings, where we peel back the curtain on the beautifully absurd world of college football economics.

Forget win-loss records for a moment (though they’re the fuel that feeds this fire). Forget rivalry games and conference standings (the kindling, if you will). Today, we’re diving headfirst into the labyrinthine world of contract buyouts—those golden parachutes that can turn a simple firing into a financial apocalypse.

We’ve identified the top 5 coaches whose seats aren’t just hot—they’re scorching. But here’s the twist: their fates aren’t sealed by X’s and O’s alone. No, these men are trapped in a game where the final score is tallied not on a scoreboard but in a boardroom.

1. Dave Aranda – Baylor

The whispers in the autumn air swirled like fallen leaves in Waco, carrying the weight of a season teetering on the brink. Twenty million dollars. That’s what the murmurs said it would cost Baylor to part ways with their enigmatic head coach, Dave Aranda, had they yielded to the mounting pressure after last season’s disappointment. Of course, Baylor shrouded in the Baptist mists of private university secrecy, keeps its coffers as close to the vest as its playbook. But let’s just say, with a contract stretching all the way to 2029, sixteen million – at the very least – is a reasonable guess.

Now, picture this: a coach, lauded as a defensive genius, finds himself at 2-4, staring down the barrel of a must-win scenario. Six games remain, and the magic number is six wins to secure bowl eligibility, a seemingly simple feat for a man who once orchestrated defenses that could suffocate the life out of the most potent offenses. But the gridiron gods are fickle, and the past two seasons have been a harsh reminder that even the best-laid plans can crumble beneath the weight of expectation.

The word on the street, from those who claim to know the inner workings of the Baylor machine, is this: a bowl game is no longer just a desire, it’s a necessity. Aranda, the stoic philosopher-coach, stands at a crossroads, his back against the wall with the clock ticking relentlessly. Can he summon the magic that once propelled him to the mountaintop, leading the Bears to a Big 12 Championship and a Sugar Bowl victory in 2021? Or will the weight of that hefty contract and the mounting pressure of a 2-4 record prove too much to bear?

The answer, my friends, lies hidden in the swirling chaos of the remaining six games. And like any good mystery, we’ll all be watching with bated breath, wondering if Aranda can pull off a miracle in Waco or if this is the beginning of the end.

2. Billy Napier – Florida

The air in Gainesville crackles with the electricity of a fanbase on the verge. It’s not just the humidity; it’s the palpable tension surrounding Billy Napier and his Florida Gators. A 2-3 start, a record as muggy and unpredictable as a Florida summer, has the Swamp simmering with a potent mix of frustration and fear. Napier, the supposed architect of a Gator renaissance, now finds himself staring down the jaws of a $28 million buyout, a figure that could make even the most die-hard booster reach for the smelling salts.

Jimmy Sexton, Napier’s agent and a man who could negotiate a raise out of a pauper, crafted a deal that would make Scrooge McDuck blush. Eighty-five percent of the remaining contract value, a cool $27,996,875 to be exact, is owed to Napier should the Gators decide to cut bait. And let’s be clear: in the win-or-else world of SEC football, where patience is as rare as a sober Saturday night in the Swamp, that kind of financial commitment can feel like an anvil around the neck of a struggling program.

Now, picture this: a coach, once hailed as the next big thing, wading through the murky waters of mediocrity. The ghosts of Spurrier and Meyer loom large, their championship rings glinting like hungry alligator eyes, reminding everyone of a bygone era of Gator dominance. But the present reality bites: 14-18 under Napier, with the echoes of those agonizing losses reverberating through the stadium.

The whispers in the Swamp are reaching a fever pitch, fueled by the anxiety of a fanbase yearning for a return to glory. “Twenty-eight million,” they murmur, the number hanging like Spanish moss. It’s a fortune, a sum that could buy a whole lot of orange and blue Kool-Aid, enough to drown out the sour taste of another lost season. But is it worth it? Is Napier’s methodical approach and unwavering faith in “the process” the right man to lead the Gators back to the promised land? Or is this another expensive experiment gone wrong, a cautionary tale of misplaced hope and exorbitant buyouts?

Seven games remain. Seven chances for Napier to rewrite the narrative, to silence the doubters, and to justify that eye-popping price tag. Once a cauldron of unbridled enthusiasm, the Swamp now simmers with a volatile mix of anticipation and dread. Will Napier rise to the occasion, or will he become another victim of the relentless meat grinder that is SEC football? The clock is ticking, the stakes are high, and the fate of the Gators hangs in the balance.

3. Will Hall – Southern Mississippi

The air in Hattiesburg is thick with tension, heavier than the humidity that hangs over the Mississippi pines. Will Hall, the hometown hero supposed to lead Southern Miss back to the promised land, finds himself on the precipice. A dismal 1-4 start has the Golden Eagles teetering on the brink of another lost season, and with just six games left on the schedule, Hall’s coaching career at his alma mater hangs by a thread.

Remember the fanfare when Hall arrived? He is a conquering hero with a shiny new contract and a 60% raise over his predecessor. Hope and optimism filled the air, a belief that this Southern Miss boy could restore the program to its former glory. Now, that contract is about to expire, and the only thing shining brighter than Hall’s initial promise is the exit sign.

$800,000 a year. That’s what Southern Miss invested in Will Hall—a significant sum for a program trying to claw its way back to relevance. But in the ruthless world of college football, where wins are the only legal tender, that salary is starting to look like a sunk cost.

And here’s the cold, hard truth: there’s no safety net. No hefty buyout to cushion the fall. If Southern Miss decides Hall isn’t the man for the job, they can show him the door at the end of the season, no strings attached. No messy divorce, no multi-million dollar payout. Just a handshake and a “thanks for your time.”

The whispers in the stands are getting louder with every loss. “One and four,” they murmur, the words echoing through the empty seats at M.M. Roberts Stadium. “Can he even make it to the end of the season?” they wonder, their voices filled with pity and resignation.

Six games. Six games to save his job. There are six opportunities for Will Hall to rewrite the narrative and prove he’s not just another overhyped coaching casualty. Six chances to silence the doubters and earn a contract extension, or pack his bags and head back to the drawing board. The clock is ticking, the pressure is relentless, and the future of Southern Miss football hangs in the balance. Can Will Hall pull off a miracle and salvage his career in Hattiesburg, or will these be his final six games leading the Golden Eagles? The answer, my friends, is blowing in the Mississippi wind.

4. Sonny Cumbie – Lousiana Tech

The buzz around Sonny Cumbie’s arrival in Ruston has faded faster than a Louisiana sunset. The high-flying offensive guru, lured to Louisiana Tech with a five-year, $4.85 million contract, finds himself grounded with a disappointing 1-3 start. Eight games remain in the season, and the whispers are starting to swirl: is Cumbie already on the hot seat?

$900,000. That’s what Louisiana Tech is shelling out for Cumbie this year, a figure that escalates to a cool million over the final three years of his deal. They even sweetened the pot with a $1.4 million pool for his assistants, hoping to build a coaching powerhouse in the heart of Cajun country. But with the Bulldogs sputtering out of the gate, that investment is starting to look like a risky proposition.

Cumbie’s contract is littered with incentives – bonuses for conference championships, bowl game appearances, and even boosting the team GPA. But right now, those incentives seem about as attainable as a snowball fight in July. The Bulldogs need a dramatic turnaround, and they need it fast, or those hefty bonuses will remain untouched like a forgotten bowl of gumbo.

And what about that buyout? If Louisiana Tech decides to cut ties with Cumbie, they’re on the hook for 75% of his remaining salary. It’s a hefty sum, but not impossible, especially if the Bulldogs continue their downward spiral. Will the administration pull the trigger or give Cumbie more time to prove himself?

The pressure is mounting in Ruston. The fans, accustomed to winning seasons and bowl game appearances, are growing restless. “One and three,” they mutter, the words hanging heavy in the humid air. “Is this all we get for $4.85 million?” they wonder, their voices filled with disappointment and frustration.

Eight games. Eight games for Sonny Cumbie to turn things around, silence the doubters, and justify that hefty price tag. Eight opportunities to prove he’s the offensive mastermind Louisiana Tech thought they were getting, or become another casualty in the high-stakes world of college football. The clock is ticking, the stakes are high, and the future of the Bulldogs hangs in the balance. Can Cumbie orchestrate a comeback, or will his time in Ruston be cut short? Only time will tell.

5. Trent Dilfer – Alabama Birmingham

UAB - Auburn

Attendance was sparse at the last UAB football game on October 5, 2024

They say hindsight is 20/20, but in the case of Trent Dilfer and UAB, it felt more like a train wreck in slow motion. The former Super Bowl-winning quarterback, with his ESPN pedigree and high school coaching success, was supposed to be the savior of Blazers football. Instead, he’s become a $3.6 million cautionary tale.

Remember the hype? Dilfer, the brash outsider with a big personality, would shake things up in Birmingham. He would bring national attention to a program that had clawed its way back from the dead. But now, two seasons in, the only thing he’s shaking up is the antacid aisle at the local pharmacy.

A dismal 1-4 start to the season, including a 71-20 drubbing at the hands of Tulane, has the Blazers faithful calling for Dilfer’s head. His off-the-field antics—comparing UAB to Alabama, criticizing NIL, and even taking shots at the volleyball team—haven’t endeared him to the fanbase either.

And then there’s that contract—$1.2 million a year, with a $3.6 million buyout if he’s fired after this season. That’s a lot of money to eat, even for a program that’s seen its share of financial struggles. But at this point, it might be cheaper to cut their losses and move on.

The whispers in the stands have turned into full-blown shouting matches. “Dilfer out!” they chant, their voices echoing through the half-empty stadium. “This experiment has failed!” they declare, their patience worn thinner than a cheap game-day t-shirt.

It’s hard to argue with them. Dilfer’s record at UAB is a dismal 5-12. He’s alienated the fans, the players, and even some folks on campus. His “springboard job” has turned into a quicksand pit, and he’s sinking fast.

So, what now? Does UAB bite the bullet and pay the $3.6 million buyout? Do they try to salvage something from this disastrous experiment and hope for a miraculous turnaround? Or do they simply let the season play out and send Dilfer packing with a handshake and a “don’t let the door hit you on the way out”?

The clock is ticking, the pressure is mounting, and the future of UAB football hangs in the balance. One thing’s for sure: the Trent Dilfer era in Birmingham can’t end soon enough.

See where your coach falls on the Coaches Hot Seat.

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