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Week 15 Coaches Hot Seat Rankings – Breaking Down the Top 5

Mark Haines on December 3, 2024

Welcome to our breakdown of the Top 5 ranked coaches on the Week 15 Coaches Hot Seat Rankings.

In the era of social media and team message boards, College football communities typically fall into three categories:

Picture the modern college football landscape as a digital Roman Colosseum, where three distinct tribes gather daily to pass judgment on their gladiators. I’ve spent months studying these tribes, fascinated by how their collective voice can determine the fate of multimillion-dollar coaching careers with the force of an emperor’s thumb.

First, you have the Sunshine Pumpers – college football’s eternal optimists, whose rose-tinted view of their program would make Pollyanna seem cynical. They’re the ones who’d watch their team’s practice facility burn to the ground and declare it a strategic move to improve ventilation. Their unwavering positivity isn’t just amusing; it’s a psychological defense mechanism worth millions to beleaguered athletic directors who need someone, anyone, to keep buying season tickets.

Then there are the Negative Nellies, the digital descendants of Ancient Greek tragedy choruses. These people have turned catastrophizing into an art form and see an upset loss to a rival as evidence of civilization’s collapse. They don’t just want their coach fired; they want him launched into the sun, preferably before halftime.

But the real power brokers? They’re the Middle Majority – college football’s silent jury. These are the clear-eyed realists who still remember that this is, ultimately, a game played by 20-year-olds. Lose their support, and a coach’s career expectancy drops faster than a team’s ranking after a loss to an FCS opponent.

As we examine this week’s coaching hot seat rankings, remember: these three tribes aren’t just posting on message boards – they’re reshaping the power dynamics of a $8 billion industry, one complaint thread at a time.

Ryan Day, Head Coach at Ohio State University - Coaches Hot Seat

The Ryan Day situation at Ohio State exemplifies how these three tribes can reshape a program’s trajectory. With a staggering 86.8% winning percentage and a 64-3 record outside of Michigan games and playoff appearances, Day should be untouchable in the eyes of any rational observer. But that’s not how college football works in 2024, especially not in Columbus.

The Sunshine Pumpers point to the program’s continued playoff contention and recruiting dominance, including a roster powered by $20 million in NIL money. They’ll tell you that Day’s overall record (.868 winning percentage) would be celebrated at 95% of programs nationwide. And they’re not wrong.

The Negative Nellies, however, have found their ammunition: a 2-7 record in career-defining moments and four straight losses to Michigan, including an unthinkable defeat to an unranked Wolverines squad that had just lost their head coach to the NFL. The “Big Game Day” epithet has stuck, and the critics are getting louder.

But it’s the Middle Majority that makes this situation genuinely fascinating. They’re running the numbers: a $35 million buyout, a coach who consistently wins everything except the games that matter most and a recruiting machine that just watched Michigan flip five-star quarterback Bryce Underwood with a reported $10 million NIL deal. The silent jury is still deliberating, but their patience is wearing thin.

Athletic Director Ross Bjork’s carefully worded support – “Coach Day does a great job leading our program. He’s our coach” – reads less like a vote of confidence and more like a holding pattern until the playoff scenario plays out. The real question might not be whether Ohio State wants to keep Day but whether Day wants to stay in a pressure cooker where even a 66-10 record can’t guarantee job security.

Kenni Burns - Kent State Head Coach - Coaches Hot Seat

Unlike the Ohio State scenario, Kent State’s situation with Kenni Burns has achieved something remarkable: it’s united all three tribes in bewilderment. When you’ve lost 21 straight games and your head coach is being sued for defaulting on a $24,000 credit card debt despite making nearly half a million dollars annually, even the Sunshine Pumpers run out of silver linings to grasp.

The raw numbers read like a satire of college football excess: a 1-33 overall record, a $1.51 million buyout, and a contract extension through 2028 that was inexplicably granted in February 2024 – the same period during which Burns was reportedly falling behind on his credit card payments. The Golden Flashes haven’t just lost games; they’ve been dismantled with surgical precision, outscored 486-160 overall and 282-99 in MAC play. The season’s nadir came early with a loss to St. Francis (PA), though the subsequent 71-0 demolition by Tennessee and 56-0 erasure by Penn State suggest “nadir” might be a moving target.

In any rational football universe, this would be where our three tribes engage in their usual warfare of interpretation. The Negative Nellies would demand immediate change, the Sunshine Pumpers would preach patience, and the Middle Majority would weigh the practical constraints against the competitive collapse. But when your head coach can’t manage his personal finances – defaulting on debt to a local bank that once sponsored the athletic program, no less – while earning $475,000 a year, it raises uncomfortable questions about institutional judgment.

Kent State has transcended such traditional dynamics. When your season ends with a 43-7 loss to Buffalo, extending the nation’s longest active losing streak to 21 games, while your head coach dodges court summons over unpaid credit card bills, you’ve achieved something rare in modern college football: unanimous consensus. The same industry that might force out Ryan Day and his 87% winning percentage at Ohio State has somehow found infinite patience for a program redefining competitive futility both on and off the field.

Perhaps that’s the most fascinating part of this story – how Kent State has inadvertently experimented with just how far institutional inertia can stretch. The answer is at least 21 games, one credit card default, and counting.

Trent Dilfer head coach of UAB - Coaches Hot Seat

The UAB situation under Trent Dilfer exemplifies what happens when all three fan tribes suddenly realize they’ve been watching the same horror movie. Four seasons ago, UAB dominated Tulane with a bruising defense that held the Green Wave to 21 points. This year? Tulane hung 71 points on the Blazers in their stadium.

As Joseph Goodman of the Alabama Media Group devastatingly points out, UAB has completed a stunning transformation “from being a symbol of pride for the city of Birmingham to the worst team in college football.” Not the bottom 10. Not second-to-last. The worst. This is a program that, under Bill Clark, made five consecutive bowl games and engineered a move to the American Athletic Conference. Under Dilfer, they’re losing 32-6 to Louisiana-Monroe, a program he describes as “historically tragic.”

The Sunshine Pumpers, usually reliable defenders of any coach with an NFL pedigree, have gone quiet. The Negative Nellies are pointing to a season-ending loss to Charlotte where the Blazers missed not one but two chip-shot field goals. And the Middle Majority? They’re doing the math on how a program goes from nine wins and a bowl victory over BYU in 2021 to this level of competitive collapse.

Yet in a twist that would bewilder even the most optimistic fans, UAB appears ready to run it back with Dilfer in 2024. The sacrifice of assistant coaches is enough to appease the football gods, even as the program that Bill Clark rebuilt piece by piece crumbles into competitive irrelevance.

The most telling sign of the program’s descent is when a senior quarterback abandons the team mid-season to preserve his eligibility. This suggests that the quarterback whisperer might have lost his voice.

Luke Fickell, Head Coach at University of Wisconsin

You know something has gone wrong when your fanbase goes from celebrating a splash hire to demanding his head in just two years. Luke Fickell’s descent at Wisconsin is a cautionary tale about the dangers of heightened expectations, with his .760 winning percentage at Cincinnati deteriorating to .500 in Madison.

The Sunshine Pumpers still point to his overall .667 career winning percentage and Cincinnati success, including that magical College Football Playoff run. They’ll tell you that losing starting quarterback Tyler Van Dyke to a torn ACL derailed what could have been a breakthrough season. And didn’t Fickell already show accountability by firing offensive coordinator Phil Longo?

However, the Negative Nellies have the receipts: five consecutive losses to the end of 2024, the first such streak since 1991. It was a humiliating 24-7 home loss to Minnesota that snapped a 22-year bowl streak and an offense that managed just 44 total yards in the first half of their season finale, with bowl eligibility on the line. The boos raining down at Camp Randall tell their own story.

The Middle Majority finds itself in an uncomfortable position. This is the same Luke Fickell who Ohio State passed over for Ryan Day – and now both men find themselves scrutinized for failing to meet their program’s standards, albeit at very different levels. The irony isn’t lost on anyone that while Ohio State contemplates moving on from Day’s 87% win rate, Wisconsin seems prepared to give Fickell another chance to prove he hasn’t lost his Cincinnati magic.

The most damning indictment? When athletic director Chris McIntosh’s recent raise and extension become part of the conversation about your job security, you know the pressure is mounting.

Hugh Freeze, Head Football Coach at Auburn University - Coaches Hot Seat

At Auburn, the three tribes of college football fandom find themselves engaged in a uniquely expensive form of warfare. Since 2000, the program has spent $68 million not on building success but on buying out failure – a figure transforming Auburn football from a sports program into a case study of institutional self-sabotage.

The Sunshine Pumpers are clinging to Auburn’s 2025 recruiting class, currently ranked fifth nationally, like a life raft in a storm of mediocrity. They’ll tell you that Freeze needs time, that his 444.5 yards per game show the offense is close to clicking, and that better days are just around the corner. Remember that Texas A&M signed a top-20 class a month after firing their coach last year.

The Negative Nellies point to numbers that are harder to spin: 11-14 overall, 5-11 in the SEC, and now 0-2 in the Iron Bowl. As Paul Finebaum put it, after the latest loss to Alabama, people “really have to wonder about this program’s future.” When you’re generating 444.5 yards per game but still can’t score, you’re not just failing – you’re finding innovative new ways to disappoint.

But it’s the Middle Majority that genuinely appreciates the dark comedy here. Auburn has fired a coach two years after winning a national title (Gene Chizik), dismissed another despite his mystifying ability to beat Alabama in odd-numbered years (Gus Malzahn), and scrapped Bryan Harsin for the crime of not being from around here. Now they’ve got Freeze, whose $20.3 million buyout can be paid monthly through 2028 – less like a coaching contract and more like a mortgage on mediocrity.

The most revealing detail is that Auburn structured Freeze’s buyout not as a deterrent to firing him but as a more convenient payment plan. This behavior reflects an institution that knows itself too well—like someone who builds the divorce settlement into their wedding vows.

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Week 12 Hot Seat Rankings Reveal The New Math of Firing Coaches: When Balance Sheets Trump Box Scores

Mark Haines on November 12, 2024

Graphic by Tony Altimore @TJAltimore on X

When Money Changes Everything: College Football’s New Math

If you want to understand what’s happening in college football right now, forget about the polls, the playoff rankings, and even the win-loss records. Instead, study Tony Altimore’s (@TJAltimore on X) financial visualization of athletic department debt. This document looks less like a sports analysis and more like a hedge fund’s risk assessment of distressed assets. What Altimore has captured, in clean lines and horrifying clarity, is the moment when college football’s financial chickens have come home to roost.

The numbers are staggering enough to make a Wall Street quant nervous. Major athletic departments have the kind of revenue shortfalls that would make a leveraged buyout specialist think twice, all while trying to maintain the facade that their business model isn’t fundamentally broken. Our Hot Seat Rankings arrive in this financial maelstrom, a list that increasingly reads like a collection of toxic assets nobody knows how to value.

Consider the range of buyouts in play: Marshall could rid itself of Charles Huff for the price of a mid-level administrator’s salary ($125,917), while Baylor would need to liquidate the equivalent of a small endowment ($20-25 million) to move on from Dave Aranda. In any rational market, these numbers represent the cost of doing business. But in 2024’s college football economy, where athletic departments are juggling NIL collectives, revenue sharing, the House Settlement, facility arms races, and operational deficits that would make a venture capitalist blanch, even UMass’s relatively modest $800,000 obligation to Don Brown looks less like a buyout and more like a luxury they might not be able to afford.

We’re witnessing the emergence of a new market inefficiency: coaches who become unsackable not through their success but through the financial implications of their failure. In a world where half our Hot Seat candidates owe their job security to their buyout clauses rather than their win percentages, we’ve entered a realm where being too expensive to fire has become its own kind of competitive advantage.

Welcome to college football’s new normal, where balance sheets matter more than playbooks, and the most important numbers aren’t on the scoreboard but in the fine print of contracts that increasingly look like they were designed by derivatives traders rather than athletic directors.

Here’s our Top 10 for this week, plus a little insider information on each:

1. Don Brown – UMass

Don Brown sits atop college football’s hot seat list in a way that perfectly captures the industry’s bias for action over patience. UMass administrators, energized by their MAC invitation and staring at a manageable $800,000 buyout, seem eager to start fresh before the 2025 conference transition. The kind of institutional momentum creates its own gravity – the desire to make a splashy hire before joining a new conference to signal ambition and commitment to a brighter future. But there’s a fascinating market inefficiency at play here that nobody’s talking about: Brown might be the rare coach whose value to the program is about to increase precisely when they’re most inclined to remove him. His decades of MAC experience as a defensive coordinator at Central Michigan and Connecticut (during its MAC era) and his deep New England recruiting roots represent institutional knowledge that money can’t easily buy. UMass is preparing to make a classic institutional mistake: paying to remove expertise they’ll need to acquire again, all in service of a fresh start that might not be as fresh as they imagine. After all, the next coach will face the same fundamental challenges – navigating one more year of independence before transitioning to the MAC – with less experience in both contexts.

2. Charles Huff – Marshall

Huff’s position has improved slightly with a recent win, but he is in year 4 of a 5-year contract, and his small $125,917 buyout means Marshall could make a change without significant financial strain. His hot seat status remains high, though the recent win may have bought him some time.

3. Stan Drayton – Temple

This week, a 52 – 6 loss to Tulane has intensified the pressure on Drayton. With no specified buyout disclosed, Temple might have flexibility in making a coaching change if they decide to go that route. The program’s struggles in the American Athletic Conference likely contribute to his hot seat status.

4. Trent Dilfer – UAB

Dilfer’s hot seat status has worsened with another loss. His $4,116,667 buyout is significant for UAB, which might give him more time. However, his unusual comments, media interactions, and poor on-field results have quickly put him in a precarious position despite being only in his second year.

5. Dave Aranda – Baylor

Despite a bye week, Aranda remains on the hot seat. His substantial $20-25 million buyout is a major factor in Baylor’s decision-making process. Recent wins have improved his standing, and there’s an industry consensus that he’s trending towards returning in 2025, partly due to the financial implications of a coaching change.

6. Sam Pittman – Arkansas

Sam Pittman moves down to #6 on our Hot Seat Rankings in what might be college football’s most emotionally complicated coaching situation. He’s the kind of figure who makes fans want to invite him over for dinner while simultaneously wanting to throw their remote through the TV during games. His Arkansas team has shown improvement this year, but in a way that feels like watching a gifted student consistently turn in C+ work – there’s something both promising and maddening about it all. The blowout loss to Ole Miss exposed the fundamental disconnect: a team with SEC talent playing with the discipline of a midnight pickup game. And here’s where it gets interesting – and credit to Jackson Collier of the Hardwood Hogs Podcast (@JCHoops on X) for surfacing a contract provision that adds another layer to this Southern football soap opera: If Pittman can scrape together seven wins between Louisiana Tech and one more victory (including a potential bowl game), he triggers an automatic raise and extension. It’s the kind of clause that transforms Arkansas’s $10 million buyout decision from merely expensive to existentially complex. The boosters’ dilemma is almost Shakespearean: How do you fire someone everyone likes who’s making the team better but not as much better as it should be? Especially when the cost of doing so keeps threatening to go up?

7. Sonny Cumbie – Louisiana Tech

A loss this week has likely increased the pressure on Cumbie. With a $1,625,000 buyout, Louisiana Tech has some flexibility if it chooses to make a change. The program’s performance in Conference USA will determine his future.

8. Kevin Wilson – Tulsa

Wilson’s first season at Tulsa has been challenging, but a recent comeback win against UTSA may have improved his standing. His buyout details aren’t specified, but Tulsa’s financial situation and patience with new coaches could influence his job security.

9. Ryan Walters – Purdue

Despite the most recent 45-0 loss to Ohio State, reports suggest Walters is expected to get more time at Purdue. His $9,590,625 buyout and the administration’s recognition of NIL challenges in the Big Ten could provide him additional job security despite the team’s struggles this season.

10. Hugh Freeze – Auburn

Freeze’s $20,312,500 buyout is a significant factor in his job security. Auburn’s recent performance and Freeze’s past success at Ole Miss are considerations. While he’s on the hot seat, the financial implications of a coaching change might give him more time to turn the program around.

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Hot Seat Heat Wave: Stoops, Dilfer, and Drayton Feeling the Burn

Mark Haines on October 29, 2024

A Hot Seat Heatwave is heading our way, featuring seats under some of the biggest names in the game. Every week, we’re tracking the coaches feeling the pressure, those whose jobs are on the line with every win and loss. This week, we’ve got a new entry into our Top 10, plus updates on two coaches facing mounting scrutiny as their programs struggle to find their footing. Get ready, folks, because things are about to get interesting.

Entering the top 10 this week is Mark Stoops at Kentucky

Mark Stoops – Kentucky

  • Conference: SEC
  • Base Salary: $9,000,000
  • School Win Percentage: 52.1%
  • Career Win Percentage: 52.1%
  • Stoops has a solid record but faces high expectations, given his substantial salary.

Let’s delve into the remarkable transformation under Mark Stoops. He took the reins at Kentucky, a program once considered the SEC’s underdog, and turned them into a formidable contender. It’s a story of resilience and determination. He inherited a 2-10 team and sculpted them into a consistent bowl contender, shattering decades-long losing streaks against rivals like Florida and Tennessee. He even led them to 10-win seasons, a feat they hadn’t achieved since the disco era.

However, with success comes the burden of expectations. The weight of these expectations is palpable, and it’s starting to take a toll on Stoops. The fans are growing impatient. They’re weary of the 7-5 seasons, the predictable offense, and the losses to teams they believe they should outplay. They see the potential in the team and question why Kentucky isn’t vying for SEC titles.

Now, Stoops isn’t backing down. He’s got that tough-guy mentality, that “I’ve been here before, I’ll weather this storm” attitude. But the pressure’s mounting. He needs to find a way to get this offense rolling, win those crucial games, and show that Kentucky can take that next step.

Here’s the twist: his buyout is surprisingly low. This opens up a world of possibilities for Kentucky. If the situation doesn’t improve, they could make a change without incurring significant financial strain. Stoops crafted something extraordinary at Kentucky, but he’s now standing at a crossroads. He needs to evolve, adapt, and demonstrate that he can elevate this program to the next level. The clock is ticking, Mark. It’s time to silence the skeptics.

Trent Dilfer: From Super Bowl Champ to College Flop?

Trent Dilfer, UAB

  • Conference: American
  • Base Salary: $1,300,000
  • School Win Percentage: 26.3%
  • Career Win Percentage: 26.3%
  • Hot Seat member Adam Binaut points out: UAB has been outscored 150-55 in their last three games. This program is on life support.

Trent Dilfer stepped into UAB with a ton of hype, a Super Bowl ring, and… well, not much else. Let’s be honest: The guy had never coached college ball. He inherited a winning program and a team that crushed it year after year. And what happened? They fell apart. It’s a situation that’s left fans and analysts alike scratching their heads in frustration.

5-14. That’s the record. A far cry from the championship banners they were hanging before he got there. Sure, they had a flashy offense for a minute, breaking records and all that. But records don’t win games, do they? The defense? It was a complete disaster. And to top it off, Dilfer’s out here making comments that rub everyone the wrong way.

Look, I get it. Sometimes, things don’t work out. But this? This feels different. This feels like a mismatch from the start. UAB deserves better. They deserve a leader who can build on what they have, not tear it down. The clock’s ticking, Trent. It’s time to step up or step aside.

Stan Drayton: Can “Culture Change” Save His Job at Temple?

Stan Drayton – Temple

  • Conference: American
  • Base Salary: $2,500,000
  • School Win Percentage: 25.0%
  • Career Win Percentage: 25.0%
  • Drayton’s third year at Temple hasn’t seen much improvement, keeping him on the hot seat.

Stan Drayton came into Temple preaching this whole “culture change” thing. Lots of talk about trust, ownership, and building the guys up. And hey, you can see some of that. The team has a different vibe. But let’s be blunt: winning cures everything. And right now, Temple ain’t winning.

8-24. That’s the record. Not exactly inspiring, is it? You can talk about “building” all you want, but at some point, you gotta show results. Drayton hasn’t.

He’s lost talent to more prominent programs, struggled to recruit, and those offensive and defensive lines? Yikes. Needs a serious overhaul.

Check out the complete rankings here and leave any comments here.

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Dilfer Moves to the Top of the Hot Seat Rankings. Neal Brown moves to #9.

Mark Haines on October 22, 2024

The college football season is in full swing, and with it comes the inevitable scrutiny of coaches on the hot seat. This week, we’re closely monitoring two coaches: Trent Dilfer at UAB and Neal Brown at West Virginia. Dilfer’s Blazers are off to a dismal 1-6 start, and there’s growing discontent among fans and boosters alike. Brown, meanwhile, is facing pressure to turn things around at West Virginia, where he has yet to achieve a winning record in Big 12 play. We’re also watching Mark Stoops at Kentucky, who is facing a make-or-break season with the Wildcats.

Trent Dilfer: UAB Football and the Abyss

Let’s talk about UAB football. It’s a dumpster fire. It’s a train wreck. It’s a slow, agonizing descent into the abyss. And at the helm, steering this program into oblivion, is Trent Dilfer.

Remember those halcyon days under Bill Clark? Six straight winning seasons. Two conference championships. Three straight division titles. A brand new stadium. That’s the UAB many of these players signed up for. Instead, they got Dilfer.  

Now, the boosters are whispering. They say AD Mark Ingram and the Alabama Board of Trustees are trying to kill this program. Again. And honestly, it wouldn’t surprise me with Dilfer at the helm.

The Blazers are 1-6. They haven’t beaten an FBS opponent this year. They got trounced by Army. They got annihilated by Tulane. Dilfer inherited an ascending program, and has managed to crater it in less than two years.  

This isn’t about a few tough losses. This is about a complete and utter collapse. The defense is a sieve. The offense is anemic. The team has no fight, no spirit, no hope. They’ve been outscored 156-48 in conference play. They haven’t scored a touchdown in the first half of an AAC game. This team is competitive for precisely zero seconds against any real opponent.  

And Dilfer? He’s busy insulting his program. “It’s not like this is freakin’ Alabama,” he quipped. No, Trent, it’s worse. At least Alabama fans have the dignity to expect better. UAB fans are getting fed a steady diet of excuses and empty promises.  

Dilfer can talk about turning things around. He can talk about building a winning program. But the reality is, he’s lost the team, he’s lost the fans, and he’s lost the boosters. He’s lost everything except his $1.3 million salary.  

The UAB Blazers are a mess. Trent Dilfer made it. It’s time for Mark Ingram to make this right.

Neal Brown: Feeling the Heat in West Virginia

Neal Brown, the head football coach at West Virginia University, has officially joined the hot seat rankings at #9. While his current record of 34-33 over six seasons may not seem disastrous at first glance, a deeper dive reveals a lack of progress. With zero wins against ranked opponents and no appearances in the AP Top 25 throughout his tenure, the Mountaineers are yearning for a taste of success.  

Adding fuel to the fire, a dedicated group of West Virginia fans has launched a website and campaign dubbed “Fire Neal Brown.” Their mission is clear: to see Brown removed from his position. Although their initial plan to fly a banner over the WVU football game against Kansas State was thwarted, their message resonated.  

Despite the mounting pressure and growing discontent, a mid-season firing seems unlikely. The financial burden of a buyout, the potential for player exodus through the transfer portal, and the lingering (albeit slim) possibility of a Big 12 championship appearance make immediate action impractical. However, Brown’s days in Morgantown could be numbered if the Mountaineers’ performance doesn’t drastically improve.  

What are your thoughts? Who should be higher or lower on the list? Comment here.

See our full list of all 134 FBS coaches here.

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Hot Seat Saturday: Where Every Snap Could Be a Coach’s Last

Mark Haines on October 19, 2024

This is Hot Seat Saturday, and the gridiron isn’t just a battleground for players; it’s a high-stakes arena where coaches fight for their careers. Across the nation, embattled coaches face must-win situations, their every decision scrutinized under the intense pressure of the hot seat. From the SEC to the Big 12, programs are teetering on the brink of change, and this weekend could be the tipping point. Join us as we delve into the most compelling Hot Seat matchups, where a single play could make or break a coach’s destiny.

Auburn @ Missouri: Can Drinkwitz Turn Up the Heat on Freeze?

Time: Noon Easter/9:00 AM Pacific

Network: ESPN

The Tigers clash in Columbia this Saturday, but the real story lies on the sidelines. Eli Drinkwitz, with his Missouri Tigers at 5-1 and sniffing a playoff berth, has a chance to turn up the heat on Hugh Freeze and his struggling Auburn squad. Freeze, already on shaky ground at 2-4, can ill afford another loss, especially one against a team Auburn should, on paper, be competitive with. Missouri’s offense, while not flashy, has been efficient, and their defense will be looking to feast on Auburn’s turnover-prone quarterback, Payton Thorne. If Drinkwitz can orchestrate a convincing win, it could send Freeze further down the hot seat and solidify Drinkwitz’s status as a rising star in the SEC.

Tulsa @ Temple: Drayton’s Last Stand? Fry’s History Suggests So.

Game Time: 2:00 PM Eastern/11:00 AM Pacific

Network: ESPN+

This Saturday’s clash between Temple and Tulsa isn’t just a battle of two winless AAC teams; it’s a potential last stand for Owls head coach Stan Drayton, and the man in the stands, new university president John Fry, might be the one to seal his fate. With Temple sitting at a dismal 1-5, Drayton’s seat is scorching hot. A loss to a similarly struggling Tulsa team could be the final straw, especially considering Fry’s history.

While Fry has voiced support for Temple athletics, his 2016 op-ed in the Wall Street Journal, where he defended Drexel University’s decision not to have a football team, paints a different picture. This raises the stakes significantly for Drayton. He needs to convince Fry that football is worth investing in at Temple. Tulsa’s ground-heavy attack will test the Owls’ porous run defense, while Temple’s offense, led by receiver Dante Wright, must exploit a Tulsa defense that’s among the nation’s worst. For Drayton, this game is less about X’s and O’s and more about survival. A win could buy him some time and show Fry a glimmer of hope, but another loss might be another step toward the end of his tenure in Philadelphia. Fry, with his cost-conscious approach to athletics, might decide it’s time for a fresh start.

UAB @ USF: Dilfer’s Dumpster Fire Heads to Tampa, Is His Job Next?

Game Time: 3:30 Eastern/12:30 Pacific

Network: ESPN+

This Saturday’s matchup between UAB and USF features two teams desperate for a win, but the pressure is squarely on the shoulders of UAB head coach Trent Dilfer. Despite being favored by 13.5 points, USF enters the game at a disappointing 2-4, mirroring UAB’s own struggles. However, Dilfer, now in his second year at the helm, is already facing serious questions about his leadership and offensive approach, especially after last week’s demoralizing loss where the Blazers appeared to quit.

Dilfer’s Blazers have been a certifiable dumpster fire this season, ranking among the nation’s worst in scoring. Quarterback play has been inconsistent, and the run game hasn’t provided much relief. This all culminates in a program that looks like it’s lost its fight. Meanwhile, USF, despite their offensive woes, might have found a spark in backup quarterback Bryce Archie, who showed promise in their last outing. It might be the final straw if Dilfer can’t rally his Blazers to a convincing victory against a vulnerable USF squad. This game is a crucial test for Dilfer, which could determine whether he keeps his job at UAB.

Baylor @ Texas Tech: Can McGuire Deliver the Knockout Blow to Aranda?

Game Time: 4:00 PM Eastern/1:00 PM Pacific

Network: ESPN 2

This Saturday’s matchup between Texas Tech and Baylor is more than just a Big 12 showdown; it’s a potential turning point in the coaching careers of both Joey McGuire and Dave Aranda. With his Red Raiders at a surprising 5-1 and undefeated in conference play, McGuire can deliver a knockout blow to Aranda, who sits atop the Coaches Hot Seat Rankings. Aranda’s Bears, at a dismal 2-4 and winless in the Big 12, are reeling, and a loss to their in-state rivals could be the final straw.

Texas Tech’s offense, led by quarterback Behren Morton, has been efficient both through the air and on the ground. They’ll look to exploit a Baylor defense that struggles mightily on the road. For Aranda, this game is about more than just stopping the bleeding; it’s about proving he can still rally his team and compete in a tough conference. A loss, especially a decisive one, could seal his fate in Waco. McGuire, meanwhile, has a chance to solidify his status as a rising star in the Big 12 and potentially send his former colleague packing.

Kansas State @ West Virginia: “Are You Having Fun?” Brown’s Plea and Klieman’s Push for Big 12 Supremacy

Game Time: 7:30 PM Eastern/4:30 PM Pacific

Network: Fox

This Saturday’s clash between Kansas State and West Virginia is a tale of two coaches heading in opposite directions, fueled by a controversial question. Chris Klieman, with his Wildcats ranked #17 and fresh off a comeback victory, is looking to solidify his team as a contender in the Big 12. Meanwhile, Neal Brown finds himself fighting for his job in Morgantown, his fate hanging on more than wins and losses. Despite a respectable 3-3 record, Brown’s Mountaineers have faltered against every quality opponent they’ve faced, and fan frustration has reached a boiling point. This discontent erupted after West Virginia’s latest loss when Brown, in response to dwindling fan support, questioned whether fans were “having a good time” at games, a comment that sparked outrage and ignited a “Fire Neal Brown” movement, complete with a fundraiser to fund a banner being flown over the stadium.

This game is a crucial test for both coaches. Klieman must avoid a letdown against a West Virginia team that’s more dangerous than their record suggests. Their run-heavy offense, led by quarterback Garrett Greene, could pose problems for the Wildcats. But for Brown, this game is about more than just a win; it’s about saving his job. He needs to show progress and give fans a reason to believe, to prove that his program is more than just a “good time.” A loss, especially at home, could be the final straw for Brown, while a win might buy him a reprieve and a chance to quell the growing discontent. The stakes are high in Morgantown, and the outcome could significantly impact the trajectory of both programs.

Kentucky @ Florida: Napier Gambles on Lagway, Can the Freshman Save His Season?

Game Time: 7:45 PM Eastern/4:45 Pacific

Network: SEC Network

This Saturday’s clash between Kentucky and Florida isn’t just another SEC East rivalry game; it’s a defining moment for embattled Gators coach Billy Napier. With his team sitting at a mediocre 3-3, Napier is handing the reins to freshman quarterback DJ Lagway, which could either revitalize Florida’s season or be the final nail in Napier’s coffin.

Napier is betting on Lagway, hoping the young quarterback’s athleticism and playmaking ability can spark an offense that has sputtered under Graham Mertz. But throwing Lagway into the fire against a solid Kentucky defense is risky. If Lagway shines and leads the Gators to victory, it could buy Napier some much-needed breathing room and inject life into a stagnant program. However, if Lagway struggles and the Gators fall further behind in the SEC East race, the calls for Napier’s job will only grow louder. This game is a must-win for Napier, and he’s putting his faith in a freshman to deliver. The pressure is on in Gainesville, and the outcome could significantly impact the future of the Florida Gators.

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Week 7 – Hot Seat Rankings Overview

Mark Haines on October 8, 2024

In college football’s high-stakes arena, where multimillion-dollar decisions hinge on the outcome of a single play, a silent countdown ticks away. We’re approaching the season’s midpoint, that critical juncture where athletic directors start crunching numbers that have nothing to do with touchdowns or field goals.

Welcome to this week’s Coaches Hot Seat Rankings, where we peel back the curtain on the beautifully absurd world of college football economics.

Forget win-loss records for a moment (though they’re the fuel that feeds this fire). Forget rivalry games and conference standings (the kindling, if you will). Today, we’re diving headfirst into the labyrinthine world of contract buyouts—those golden parachutes that can turn a simple firing into a financial apocalypse.

We’ve identified the top 5 coaches whose seats aren’t just hot—they’re scorching. But here’s the twist: their fates aren’t sealed by X’s and O’s alone. No, these men are trapped in a game where the final score is tallied not on a scoreboard but in a boardroom.

1. Dave Aranda – Baylor

The whispers in the autumn air swirled like fallen leaves in Waco, carrying the weight of a season teetering on the brink. Twenty million dollars. That’s what the murmurs said it would cost Baylor to part ways with their enigmatic head coach, Dave Aranda, had they yielded to the mounting pressure after last season’s disappointment. Of course, Baylor shrouded in the Baptist mists of private university secrecy, keeps its coffers as close to the vest as its playbook. But let’s just say, with a contract stretching all the way to 2029, sixteen million – at the very least – is a reasonable guess.

Now, picture this: a coach, lauded as a defensive genius, finds himself at 2-4, staring down the barrel of a must-win scenario. Six games remain, and the magic number is six wins to secure bowl eligibility, a seemingly simple feat for a man who once orchestrated defenses that could suffocate the life out of the most potent offenses. But the gridiron gods are fickle, and the past two seasons have been a harsh reminder that even the best-laid plans can crumble beneath the weight of expectation.

The word on the street, from those who claim to know the inner workings of the Baylor machine, is this: a bowl game is no longer just a desire, it’s a necessity. Aranda, the stoic philosopher-coach, stands at a crossroads, his back against the wall with the clock ticking relentlessly. Can he summon the magic that once propelled him to the mountaintop, leading the Bears to a Big 12 Championship and a Sugar Bowl victory in 2021? Or will the weight of that hefty contract and the mounting pressure of a 2-4 record prove too much to bear?

The answer, my friends, lies hidden in the swirling chaos of the remaining six games. And like any good mystery, we’ll all be watching with bated breath, wondering if Aranda can pull off a miracle in Waco or if this is the beginning of the end.

2. Billy Napier – Florida

The air in Gainesville crackles with the electricity of a fanbase on the verge. It’s not just the humidity; it’s the palpable tension surrounding Billy Napier and his Florida Gators. A 2-3 start, a record as muggy and unpredictable as a Florida summer, has the Swamp simmering with a potent mix of frustration and fear. Napier, the supposed architect of a Gator renaissance, now finds himself staring down the jaws of a $28 million buyout, a figure that could make even the most die-hard booster reach for the smelling salts.

Jimmy Sexton, Napier’s agent and a man who could negotiate a raise out of a pauper, crafted a deal that would make Scrooge McDuck blush. Eighty-five percent of the remaining contract value, a cool $27,996,875 to be exact, is owed to Napier should the Gators decide to cut bait. And let’s be clear: in the win-or-else world of SEC football, where patience is as rare as a sober Saturday night in the Swamp, that kind of financial commitment can feel like an anvil around the neck of a struggling program.

Now, picture this: a coach, once hailed as the next big thing, wading through the murky waters of mediocrity. The ghosts of Spurrier and Meyer loom large, their championship rings glinting like hungry alligator eyes, reminding everyone of a bygone era of Gator dominance. But the present reality bites: 14-18 under Napier, with the echoes of those agonizing losses reverberating through the stadium.

The whispers in the Swamp are reaching a fever pitch, fueled by the anxiety of a fanbase yearning for a return to glory. “Twenty-eight million,” they murmur, the number hanging like Spanish moss. It’s a fortune, a sum that could buy a whole lot of orange and blue Kool-Aid, enough to drown out the sour taste of another lost season. But is it worth it? Is Napier’s methodical approach and unwavering faith in “the process” the right man to lead the Gators back to the promised land? Or is this another expensive experiment gone wrong, a cautionary tale of misplaced hope and exorbitant buyouts?

Seven games remain. Seven chances for Napier to rewrite the narrative, to silence the doubters, and to justify that eye-popping price tag. Once a cauldron of unbridled enthusiasm, the Swamp now simmers with a volatile mix of anticipation and dread. Will Napier rise to the occasion, or will he become another victim of the relentless meat grinder that is SEC football? The clock is ticking, the stakes are high, and the fate of the Gators hangs in the balance.

3. Will Hall – Southern Mississippi

The air in Hattiesburg is thick with tension, heavier than the humidity that hangs over the Mississippi pines. Will Hall, the hometown hero supposed to lead Southern Miss back to the promised land, finds himself on the precipice. A dismal 1-4 start has the Golden Eagles teetering on the brink of another lost season, and with just six games left on the schedule, Hall’s coaching career at his alma mater hangs by a thread.

Remember the fanfare when Hall arrived? He is a conquering hero with a shiny new contract and a 60% raise over his predecessor. Hope and optimism filled the air, a belief that this Southern Miss boy could restore the program to its former glory. Now, that contract is about to expire, and the only thing shining brighter than Hall’s initial promise is the exit sign.

$800,000 a year. That’s what Southern Miss invested in Will Hall—a significant sum for a program trying to claw its way back to relevance. But in the ruthless world of college football, where wins are the only legal tender, that salary is starting to look like a sunk cost.

And here’s the cold, hard truth: there’s no safety net. No hefty buyout to cushion the fall. If Southern Miss decides Hall isn’t the man for the job, they can show him the door at the end of the season, no strings attached. No messy divorce, no multi-million dollar payout. Just a handshake and a “thanks for your time.”

The whispers in the stands are getting louder with every loss. “One and four,” they murmur, the words echoing through the empty seats at M.M. Roberts Stadium. “Can he even make it to the end of the season?” they wonder, their voices filled with pity and resignation.

Six games. Six games to save his job. There are six opportunities for Will Hall to rewrite the narrative and prove he’s not just another overhyped coaching casualty. Six chances to silence the doubters and earn a contract extension, or pack his bags and head back to the drawing board. The clock is ticking, the pressure is relentless, and the future of Southern Miss football hangs in the balance. Can Will Hall pull off a miracle and salvage his career in Hattiesburg, or will these be his final six games leading the Golden Eagles? The answer, my friends, is blowing in the Mississippi wind.

4. Sonny Cumbie – Lousiana Tech

The buzz around Sonny Cumbie’s arrival in Ruston has faded faster than a Louisiana sunset. The high-flying offensive guru, lured to Louisiana Tech with a five-year, $4.85 million contract, finds himself grounded with a disappointing 1-3 start. Eight games remain in the season, and the whispers are starting to swirl: is Cumbie already on the hot seat?

$900,000. That’s what Louisiana Tech is shelling out for Cumbie this year, a figure that escalates to a cool million over the final three years of his deal. They even sweetened the pot with a $1.4 million pool for his assistants, hoping to build a coaching powerhouse in the heart of Cajun country. But with the Bulldogs sputtering out of the gate, that investment is starting to look like a risky proposition.

Cumbie’s contract is littered with incentives – bonuses for conference championships, bowl game appearances, and even boosting the team GPA. But right now, those incentives seem about as attainable as a snowball fight in July. The Bulldogs need a dramatic turnaround, and they need it fast, or those hefty bonuses will remain untouched like a forgotten bowl of gumbo.

And what about that buyout? If Louisiana Tech decides to cut ties with Cumbie, they’re on the hook for 75% of his remaining salary. It’s a hefty sum, but not impossible, especially if the Bulldogs continue their downward spiral. Will the administration pull the trigger or give Cumbie more time to prove himself?

The pressure is mounting in Ruston. The fans, accustomed to winning seasons and bowl game appearances, are growing restless. “One and three,” they mutter, the words hanging heavy in the humid air. “Is this all we get for $4.85 million?” they wonder, their voices filled with disappointment and frustration.

Eight games. Eight games for Sonny Cumbie to turn things around, silence the doubters, and justify that hefty price tag. Eight opportunities to prove he’s the offensive mastermind Louisiana Tech thought they were getting, or become another casualty in the high-stakes world of college football. The clock is ticking, the stakes are high, and the future of the Bulldogs hangs in the balance. Can Cumbie orchestrate a comeback, or will his time in Ruston be cut short? Only time will tell.

5. Trent Dilfer – Alabama Birmingham

UAB - Auburn

Attendance was sparse at the last UAB football game on October 5, 2024

They say hindsight is 20/20, but in the case of Trent Dilfer and UAB, it felt more like a train wreck in slow motion. The former Super Bowl-winning quarterback, with his ESPN pedigree and high school coaching success, was supposed to be the savior of Blazers football. Instead, he’s become a $3.6 million cautionary tale.

Remember the hype? Dilfer, the brash outsider with a big personality, would shake things up in Birmingham. He would bring national attention to a program that had clawed its way back from the dead. But now, two seasons in, the only thing he’s shaking up is the antacid aisle at the local pharmacy.

A dismal 1-4 start to the season, including a 71-20 drubbing at the hands of Tulane, has the Blazers faithful calling for Dilfer’s head. His off-the-field antics—comparing UAB to Alabama, criticizing NIL, and even taking shots at the volleyball team—haven’t endeared him to the fanbase either.

And then there’s that contract—$1.2 million a year, with a $3.6 million buyout if he’s fired after this season. That’s a lot of money to eat, even for a program that’s seen its share of financial struggles. But at this point, it might be cheaper to cut their losses and move on.

The whispers in the stands have turned into full-blown shouting matches. “Dilfer out!” they chant, their voices echoing through the half-empty stadium. “This experiment has failed!” they declare, their patience worn thinner than a cheap game-day t-shirt.

It’s hard to argue with them. Dilfer’s record at UAB is a dismal 5-12. He’s alienated the fans, the players, and even some folks on campus. His “springboard job” has turned into a quicksand pit, and he’s sinking fast.

So, what now? Does UAB bite the bullet and pay the $3.6 million buyout? Do they try to salvage something from this disastrous experiment and hope for a miraculous turnaround? Or do they simply let the season play out and send Dilfer packing with a handshake and a “don’t let the door hit you on the way out”?

The clock is ticking, the pressure is mounting, and the future of UAB football hangs in the balance. One thing’s for sure: the Trent Dilfer era in Birmingham can’t end soon enough.

See where your coach falls on the Coaches Hot Seat.

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