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Pat Fitzgerald Is 17-38 Against Ranked Teams. Michigan State Just Hired Him To Beat Ohio State.

Mark Haines on January 22, 2026

Everybody’s talking about the baggage.

The hazing scandal. The two years away. The “100 percent vindicated” quote that will resurface every time the Spartans lose back-to-back games.

That’s the easy narrative.

But the harder question—the one that actually determines whether this hire works—is hiding in plain sight.

It’s in the splits.

.309 Against Ranked. .469 On The Road. 5-8 In Bowls.

Pat Fitzgerald went 118-106 in 17 seasons at Northwestern.

Respectable. Ten bowl trips. Two Big Ten West titles. Five AP Top-25 finishes.

But peel back the overall record and you find a coach with real vulnerabilities.

Home: 65-44 (.596) Away: 46-52 (.469) vs Ranked: 17-38 (.309) Bowl Games: 5-8 (.385)

That’s a below-.500 road coach.

That’s a coach who won fewer than one in three games against ranked opponents. That’s a coach who went 5-8 in bowl games—games where both teams have a month to prepare.

These aren’t cherry-picked stats.

They’re the games that define whether you’re building a program or just surviving.

Northwestern Was Hard. But That Only Explains So Much.

Northwestern is one of the hardest jobs in college football.

Elite academic standards. A tiny recruiting pool. A fan base that treats sellouts as a pleasant surprise.

The fact that Fitzgerald won anything there is a testament to his culture-building ability.

Michigan State doesn’t have those constraints.

It’s a large state school with standard admission requirements, a passionate fan base, and recruiting access across the Midwest that Northwestern could never match. In theory, Fitzgerald’s ceiling should rise with better raw material.

But here’s the uncomfortable question.

Do the splits improve with better players—or are they baked into his coaching DNA?

His record against ranked opponents wasn’t a talent problem.

It was a performance problem. Scheme. Adjustments. Preparation against elite competition.

At Northwestern, he was almost always the underdog.

We never got to see whether he could win with talent, because he rarely had it. Michigan State is betting the answer is yes.

The splits suggest they should be nervous.

Ohio State. Michigan. Oregon. USC. Penn State. Good Luck.

The league Fitzgerald left isn’t the league he’s entering.

In 2022, the Big Ten West was a knife fight between Northwestern, Iowa, Purdue, Wisconsin, and Minnesota. Winnable.

In 2026, Michigan State’s conference includes Ohio State, Michigan, Penn State, Oregon, USC, and Washington.

The road schedule alone is a gauntlet.

If Fitzgerald’s .469 road record and .309 mark against ranked opponents translate to East Lansing, the Spartans are looking at 5-7 wins as the ceiling, not the floor. And with his late-tenure decline at Northwestern (3-9, 3-9, 1-11 in his final three seasons), there’s evidence he struggled to adapt even before the two-year absence.

That absence matters.

Fitzgerald has been off the sideline since July 2023—the most transformative period in college football history. Full NIL monetization. The transfer portal as the primary roster-building mechanism. The rise of GM and personnel departments.

His Northwestern teams were culture-first, developmental, and scheme-sound.

They were never portal-aggressive or NIL-forward.

Can he adapt at 50?

The splits don’t answer that question. But they don’t inspire confidence either.

If The Splits Hold, MSU Will Have Spent $50 Million On Nothing.

Michigan State structured this deal carefully.

Five years. $30 million total. Heavily incentive-laden.

Year 1 pays $5 million, escalating $500K annually.

Bonuses start at $500K for six wins and climb to $1.5 million for eight-plus. There’s also an automatic one-year extension trigger if he hits seven regular-season wins in any of his first three seasons.

On paper, this looks like smart risk management.

MSU isn’t betting the house—especially after eating Jonathan Smith’s $30 million buyout.

But look closer.

The extension trigger at seven wins is generous for a program that went 5-7 and 4-8 under Smith. If Fitzgerald clears that bar once, MSU is locked in for another year. And if the splits hold—if he’s a 5-6 win coach in this league—what does it actually cost to move on?

Recent buyouts have been coach-friendly disasters.

Mark Stoops leveraged Kentucky into a deal that made him nearly unfireable. Hugh Freeze’s Auburn contract guaranteed generational wealth regardless of performance.

Schools are learning the hard way that buyout math matters more than press conference optimism.

MSU’s deal isn’t in that category.

But it’s not airtight either. If Fitzgerald underperforms, the Spartans will have spent $30 million on Jonathan Smith, another $20-25 million on Fitzgerald, and still be looking for answers.

That’s $50+ million for five years of losing seasons.

A Gamble, Not A Plan.

This hire makes sense on paper.

Fitzgerald elevated Northwestern beyond its resource baseline. Michigan State offers more to work with than he ever had in Evanston. The price is reasonable. The upside is real.

But the splits tell a cautionary tale.

A .309 record against ranked opponents doesn’t magically improve because you moved 100 miles east. A below-.500 road record doesn’t fix itself with better facilities. And a coach who went 7-29 in his final three seasons—then spent two years away from the sport’s biggest structural shift—is not a sure thing.

Michigan State is betting Fitzgerald can adapt, modernize, and win the games that matter.

The splits say that’s a gamble, not a plan.

Coaches Hot Seat Verdict: High-variance, defensible. Clear path to success if he staffs aggressively and embraces the portal/NIL infrastructure. Clear path to another coaching search by 2028 if he doesn’t.

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Eric Morris Was Exciting. Neal Brown Will Be Reliable.

Mark Haines on January 19, 2026

Here’s Why That’s Actually What North Texas Needs.

Neal Brown isn’t a splash hire.

He’s something better for North Texas: a proven program builder who’s already won at this level. While Eric Morris brought schematic creativity and tempo that excited fans, Brown brings a decade of head-coaching experience, 72 wins, and a track record of sustained success that Morris hadn’t yet established. UNT isn’t trading up in the ceiling, they’re trading up in the floor.

That distinction matters more than most fans realize.

At Troy, Brown Was One of the Best G5 Coaches in America

Brown’s numbers at the Group of Five level are elite.

At Troy from 2015-2018, he went 35-16 (.686) with three consecutive 10-win seasons from 2016-18. During that stretch, his .790 winning percentage trailed only Nick Saban and Dabo Swinney among all FBS coaches. He won the Sun Belt title, earned Coach of the Year honors, and went a perfect 3-0 in bowl games—never losing a postseason contest at Troy.

Brown’s Career Splits

SplitCareerTroyWest Virginia
Overall Record72-52 (.581)35-16 (.686)37-36 (.507)
Bowl Games5-2 (.714)3-0 (1.000)2-2 (.500)
Late Season23-14 (.622)11-4 (.733)12-10 (.545)
vs. Ranked4-21 (.160)1-3 (.250)3-18 (.143)
Road Record28-20 (.583)15-6 (.714)13-14 (.481)

The Troy column is what matters for UNT – and those numbers are excellent.

West Virginia Was Harder, But He Never Lost the Locker Room

Yes, Brown struggled in Morgantown.

His 37-36 record over six seasons at West Virginia is mediocre by any standard. The 3-18 mark against ranked opponents is genuinely brutal—a number that reflects the reality of competing in the Big 12 without the resources of Texas or Oklahoma. His teams lost close games they should have won and got blown out in games they had no business being in.

But here’s what the WVU tenure reveals: Brown maintained program stability in a difficult environment. He never had a collapse season. He bounced back to 9-4 in 2023 after two rough years. His teams played hard until the end, and he kept the locker room together when other coaches would have lost the building.

The question is whether WVU exposed Brown’s ceiling, or simply showed what happens when a strong G5 coach faces P5 realities.

Less Tempo, More Balance, Fewer Explosive Plays

The identity shift will be noticeable.

Morris brought a fast, QB-centric Air Raid variant that stressed defenses with tempo. Games were high-scoring, sometimes chaotic, and the week-to-week volatility was part of the package. Brown runs an Air Raid-influenced system too, but his version is more balanced, more methodical, and more willing to lean on the running game.

Expect inside zone, duo, counter, and designed QB runs alongside the mesh concepts and quick game. Brown uses tight ends and H-backs as blockers, not just receivers. His offenses frustrate defenses with efficiency and third-down conversions rather than explosive chunk plays.

The tempo will slow. The risk profile will shrink. The emphasis will shift from outscoring opponents to outexecuting them.

UNT fans trading in a Ferrari for a well-maintained pickup truck – less flash, more reliability.

His Teams Are Tough, and They Finish Strong

Brown’s best teams were defined by toughness and accountability.

His Troy teams played physical, assignment-sound defense. They didn’t beat themselves with procedural mistakes. They trusted the punt, played field position, and understood that complementary football wins G5 conference titles. His stated UNT vision,” fast, physical, tough, disciplined,” isn’t coach-speak.

That 11-4 late-season record at Troy (.733) tells you something important: his teams finished. They didn’t fade in November. They got better when it mattered most.

That’s not a small thing.

Expect Bowl Games Most Years, Conference Titles When It Clicks

Here’s what UNT fans should reasonably expect:

Ceiling: Brown has already proven he can build a 10-win G5 program when the roster, quarterback, and staff align. He did it at Troy. With UNT’s recent momentum and portal access, conference titles and Top 25 seasons over a 3-5 year window are realistic targets.

Floor: His track record suggests bowl-level competence most years, with fewer 3-9 crater seasons than many “system” hires risk. Expect tighter games, better situational football, and a more reliable product than Morris—especially once Brown has a full roster cycle in Denton.

That floor-raising ability is exactly why UNT hired him.

He’s a Stabilizer, Not a Savior, And That’s Exactly Right

Neal Brown is a stabilizer hire, not a savior hire.

He won’t generate the same excitement as Morris. He won’t run up video-game scores. He won’t make your offense appointment television. But he also won’t have the program lurching between 10-win potential and 5-win reality from year to year. He knows how to build something sustainable at this level – and he’s done it before.

For a program that just lost its coach to a bigger job, that continuity and competence matters. UNT isn’t trying to become the next Cincinnati or Boise State overnight. They’re trying to become a consistent winner in the American Athletic Conference.

Neal Brown is built for exactly that.

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Eric Morris Has Never Beaten a Ranked Team

Mark Haines on January 16, 2026

Now He’s the Head Coach at Oklahoma State.

Eric Morris is one of the most exciting offensive minds in college football.

He developed quarterbacks who became first-round NFL picks. He coordinated top-10 offenses at three different programs. He took North Texas from a 5-7 afterthought to an 11-2 juggernaut averaging 503 yards per game—the best offense in the country. When Oklahoma State fired Mike Gundy mid-season and went looking for someone to resurrect a program that had gone 0-17 in Big 12 play over two years, Morris was the guy.

But there’s a number in his résumé that should concern every Cowboys fan.

Zero.

That’s how many ranked opponents Eric Morris has beaten as a head coach.

503 Yards Per Game. First in the Nation.

Let’s be clear about something: Morris can coach offense.

His 2025 North Texas team scored 30-plus points in every single game. They hung 50 on six opponents. They led the nation in total offense and turned Drew Mestemaker into the FBS passing leader. This wasn’t a fluke—Morris did the same thing at Incarnate Word, where he developed Cam Ward before Ward transferred to Washington State and became a Heisman finalist. His fingerprints are on Baker Mayfield’s early development at Texas Tech. Same with Patrick Mahomes.

The man knows how to build a quarterback and design an offense.

His system has evolved from pure Air Raid into something more balanced—a high-tempo spread that can actually run the football. At North Texas, he proved he could win the time-of-possession battle when he needed to. He proved he could close out games. He proved he could build a roster through the portal and develop mid-tier recruits into all-conference players.

None of that is in question.

0-4 Against Ranked Teams. 5-6 on the Road.

Here’s where it gets complicated.

Morris went 22-16 at North Texas. Solid record. But when you break it down by situation, patterns emerge that matter for a coach stepping into the Big 12.

Home vs. Road: Morris was 17-9 at home (.654) but just 5-6 on the road (.455). That’s a 20-point swing in win percentage. At Oklahoma State, he’ll need to win in Lubbock, Austin, Morgantown, and Provo just to stay competitive. The American Athletic Conference road environment is not the Big 12 road environment.

Ranked Opponents: 0-4. Morris has never beaten a ranked team as a head coach. Not once. North Texas played four ranked opponents during his tenure, and they lost all four. Oklahoma State will likely face 4-6 ranked teams per season in the new Big 12.

Late Season: 6-6 in November and December. When games tighten up and defenses have film, Morris’s teams have been a coin flip. That’s not a death sentence—plenty of good coaches hover around .500 in late-season play. But it’s not the mark of a program-builder who closes strong.

Bowls: 0-1. He left before North Texas’s bowl game in 2025, but his only previous bowl as a head coach was a loss.

Add it up and you get a coach who dominates at home against unranked opponents but hasn’t proven he can win the games that define seasons.

He Inherits a Team That Went 0-17 in Conference

Oklahoma State isn’t just a new job.

It’s a disaster.

Morris inherits a program that went 1-10 in 2025 after the university fired Mike Gundy, a coach with 170 wins and two decades of stability, mid-season. The Cowboys went 0-9 in Big 12 play last year. They went 0-8 the year before. That’s 0-17 against conference opponents over two seasons. The roster has been picked apart by the portal. The culture has cratered. The facilities, once a point of pride, now lag behind a conference that includes Texas, Arizona, Colorado, and Utah.

Morris will get time. Athletic director Chad Weiberg has already signaled that year one is about installing culture and identity, not wins.

But “time” in college football isn’t what it used to be.

The portal moves fast. Recruits make decisions fast. Fanbases lose patience fast. If Morris can’t show progress by year two—if he can’t win 5 or 6 games and beat a ranked opponent—the pressure will build quickly. Oklahoma State isn’t a sleeping giant. It’s a regional program that had one exceptional coach for 21 years, and now it has to prove it can win without him.

The Portal Will Decide Everything

Morris has already started bringing North Texas players through the portal.

That’s smart. Those players know the system, trust the coach, and can help install the offense quickly. If he hits on a quarterback, his specialty, Oklahoma State could have one of the more entertaining offenses in the Big 12 by September. The scheme will work. The tempo will be there. The points will come.

The questions are about everything else.

Can he build a defense that complements his offense instead of giving up everything he scores? Can he win in hostile road environments against teams with more talent? Can he beat a ranked opponent for the first time in his career – and then do it again, and again, against a conference full of them?

His ceiling is real. If he develops a star quarterback and nails the portal, Oklahoma State could be back in the Big 12 title conversation within three years.

His floor is equally real. Without defensive improvement and better results against quality opponents, this becomes a fun 6-6 era – entertaining offenses, close losses, and a fanbase that starts asking whether they hired the right guy.

High Pressure. Three Years to Prove It.

Eric Morris is a legitimately good offensive coach taking a legitimately hard job.

He’s never beaten a ranked opponent. He’s never won more than 55% of his road games. He’s never coached in a Power 4 conference. And now he’s walking into a program that just fired a legend, lost 17 straight conference games, and needs to rebuild from the foundation up – in a conference that includes four former Playoff participants.

The offense will be fine.

Everything else is an open question.

Pressure Level: High. Not because he’s on the hot seat – he’ll get at least three years. But the gap between his track record and his new reality is the widest of any first-year coach in the Big 12. He’s built for this on paper. Now he has to prove it against the best competition he’s ever faced.

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Charles Huff Took Southern Miss From 1-11 to 7-5 In One Season. Now He’s At Memphis—His Third Job In Three Years.

Mark Haines on January 14, 2026

Charles Huff fixes broken programs.

That’s the value proposition Memphis is buying. Not a recruiter who needs five years to build his guys. Not a developmental coach who grows freshmen into seniors. Huff is a fixer — a guy who walks into a disaster, flips the portal, resets the culture, and delivers wins fast.

The pattern is clear now.

And if you’re trying to understand what Memphis is getting (and what they’re risking), you need to see how the pattern repeats.

The Southern Miss Fix: 1-11 to 7-5 In One Year

Huff inherited a catastrophe.

  • Zero Sun Belt wins in 2024.
  • Out of most games by halftime.
  • A program with no pulse.
  • One year later: 7-5, bowl eligible, in division-title contention deep into November.
  • That six-win jump was one of the largest single-season improvements in FBS.

Here’s how he did it:

Turnover Margin

Through 10 games, Southern Miss forced 25 turnovers while committing only 12. That’s a +1.30 margin per game — top three nationally. Those takeaways produced 61 points and shortened the field for an offense still finding its footing.

Portal reconstruction.

Huff didn’t try to develop the 1-11 roster. He replaced it. New faces, new expectations, new standards. The veterans who stayed had to buy in or get out.

Defensive identity.

Coordinator Jason Semore’s unit was top-tier in red-zone defense and strong against the run. The offense didn’t need to be special. It just needed to not lose games.

Close-game composure.

The 2024 team was routinely outclassed and out of games early. The 2025 team finished. Multiple tight conference wins late in the year.

  • Huff talked about confronting the “scar tissue” of the previous season.
  • His team played like they believed him.
  • But here’s the tension in the splits:
  • Late-season record at Southern Miss: 1-3 (.250).
  • The turnaround was real. The finish wasn’t. After starting 6-2, Southern Miss dropped three of their last four.

And then Huff left.

The Marshall Fix: 32-20 With A Top-10 Upset

Southern Miss wasn’t the first time.

Huff arrived at Marshall in 2021 with a Saban pedigree and a recruiting reputation. Four years later, he left with a 32-20 record, a Sun Belt title, and the signature win of his career: a road upset of #8 Notre Dame in 2022.

The splits tell the story of a coach who built something real:

  • Late-season record: 12-5 (.706)
  • Road record: 13-6 (.684)
  • Bowl record: 1-2

Marshall under Huff wasn’t elite. Advanced metrics rated them as respectable but not dominant at the G5 level. But they were consistently competitive, consistently bowling, and occasionally dangerous.

  • The late-season finishing that disappeared at Southern Miss? It was there at Marshall.
  • The difference: he had four years to build it.

Then he left for Southern Miss.

The Memphis Play: Same Playbook, Bigger Stage

This is a different setup than Marshall or Southern Miss.

Huff isn’t walking into a crater. Memphis went 8-4 in 2025, climbed as high as #22 in the polls, and returns a relatively healthy roster. Ryan Silverfield left for Arkansas. Reggie Howard handled the bowl.

The bones are there.

Huff is attacking it the same way anyway.

The portal haul is already significant:

  • Air Noland (QB, South Carolina) — former blue-chip, 3,500-yard passer, projected starter
  • Dallan Hayden (RB, Colorado) — ex-Ohio State signee with Big Ten/Big 12 experience
  • J’Mond Tapp (EDGE, Southern Miss) — All-Sun Belt, 70 tackles, 7.5 sacks
  • Michael Montgomery (LB, Southern Miss) — All-Sun Belt, knows Semore’s system
  • Ian Foster (DB, Southern Miss) — All-Sun Belt, ball production in the secondary

He’s importing proven production to raise the talent ceiling immediately.

Same playbook. Same urgency.

The staff reflects it too. Kevin Decker comes from Old Dominion, where his offense averaged 460+ yards per game with tempo and spread concepts. Jason Semore followed from Southern Miss to run the defense. Ben Ashford, Huff’s long-time strength coach, is the culture anchor.

Everything is built for Year 1 impact.

The Risk: Three Jobs In Three Years

Here’s what Memphis is betting against:

Charles Huff has never stayed anywhere long enough to see what happens after Year 4.

This is his third head job in three years. Marshall to Southern Miss to Memphis — each time chasing a bigger opportunity, each time leaving before the program had to answer harder questions about depth, development, and sustained excellence.

The turnaround pattern is proven.

The sustainability pattern doesn’t exist yet.

At Marshall, he built something and left before the conference-title team had to defend it. At Southern Miss, he engineered a miracle year and left before finding out if it was a mirage. Now at Memphis, he inherits an 8-4 roster and a program with CFP aspirations in a realigning AAC.

The questions he has to answer:

  • Can he win when he’s not the underdog?
  • Can he develop a roster instead of just replacing one?
  • Can he stay?

The splits say Huff is a .609 coach who wins on the road, finishes strong at his longer stops, and hasn’t proven much against ranked opponents or in bowl games.

The narrative says he’s an elevator.

But elevators go both directions.

Memphis is betting he keeps going up.

They’re also betting he doesn’t get off at the next floor.

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Billy Napier Was 40-12 At Louisiana And 22-23 At Florida. Here’s Why JMU Is Betting He’s Still The Louisiana Version.

Mark Haines on January 12, 2026

Billy Napier just landed the best job in Group of Five football.

James Madison went 40-10 in its first three FBS seasons. The Dukes won a Sun Belt title. They made the College Football Playoff. And now Bob Chesney – the coach who built that 2025 run – is gone to UCLA.

Napier inherits a dynasty mid-flight.

This isn’t a rebuild. This isn’t a “prove yourself” job. This is a “don’t break what’s already working” job – and that’s an entirely different kind of pressure.

22-23 At Florida. 40-12 At Louisiana. Same Coach.

Napier was fired from Florida with the worst 30-game record for a Gators coach since the 1940s.

He went 5-20 against ranked opponents. He won just four road games in nearly four full seasons. His late-season record at Florida was 6-10 – the opposite of a closer.

But the same coach went 40-12 at Louisiana.

He won back-to-back Sun Belt titles. He finished ranked in the AP Top 20 twice. His late-season record with the Ragin’ Cajuns was 16-3.

Same coach. Completely different results.

The difference wasn’t scheme. It wasn’t recruiting. It wasn’t even playcalling (though that didn’t help). The difference was context.

At Louisiana, Napier had the best roster in his conference. At Florida, he was bringing a knife to a gunfight every Saturday in the SEC.

6-24 Against Ranked Teams – But Context Changes Everything.

I pulled Napier’s career splits across both stops.

The numbers reveal exactly why this JMU hire makes sense—and exactly where the risk lives.

Career Record: 64-39 (.621)

SplitRecordWin %
Home38-23.623
Away22-9.710
Neutral4-7.364
Late Season22-13.629
vs Ranked6-24.200
Bowl Games5-4.556

That 6-24 record against ranked teams looks catastrophic.

But context matters. At Louisiana, he only faced five ranked opponents in four years – and went 1-4. At Florida, he faced 25 ranked teams and went 5-20. The SEC forced him into a weight class he couldn’t compete in.

Louisiana-specific splits:

SplitRecordWin %
Overall41-12.774
Late Season16-3.842
Bowl Games4-3.571

When Napier has the roster advantage, he closes. When he doesn’t, he collapses.

JMU gives him the roster advantage.

23 Players Hit The Portal. 7 Already Followed Chesney To UCLA.

Here’s the part that should worry JMU fans.

Twenty-three players entered the transfer portal after the Dukes’ CFP run. Seven have already followed Chesney to UCLA – including star running back Wayne Knight, receiver Landon Ellis, and edge rusher Aiden Gobaira. Sun Belt Player of the Year Alonza Barnett III left for UCF.

This isn’t a one-time thing, either.

When Curt Cignetti left JMU for Indiana after 2023, he took 13 players with him – including multiple All-Group of Five performers. The Dukes have now lost two head coaches to Power Four jobs in back-to-back years, and both times the roster got raided.

Napier’s first job isn’t installing his system. It’s stopping the bleeding.

Early signs are encouraging:

  • He’s landed former LSU four-star receiver Kylan Billiot
  • He’s kept key returners like running back George Pettaway and receiver Braeden Wisloski
  • He’s pulling transfers from East Tennessee State, West Florida, and Northern Arizona to restock the depth chart

But the margin for error is thin.

He’s Giving Up Playcalling. Florida Is Paying His Salary. He Won’t Get Poached.

Three things are working in Napier’s favor that weren’t true at Florida.

First: He’s giving up playcalling.

This was the single biggest complaint during his Gainesville tenure. Slow tempo. Predictable sequences. Clock management disasters. Napier publicly committed at his JMU introduction to letting offensive coordinator Cam Aiken call plays.

If he actually follows through, that’s the biggest operational change of his career.

Second: Florida is subsidizing his salary.

Napier’s buyout from Florida was approximately $21 million – paid with no offset. That means JMU is getting a former SEC head coach at a modest base, freeing up budget for staff and NIL. Napier has also said his performance bonuses will go directly into a program discretionary fund.

Donors love this structure. It’s leverage without cost.

Third: He won’t get poached.

Cignetti left for Indiana. Chesney left for UCLA. Both coaches used JMU as a springboard to Power Four jobs within two years.

Napier’s Power Four stock is damaged. Nobody is calling him for a major job anytime soon. That’s a feature, not a bug. JMU finally has a coach who might actually stay.

Chesney’s Career Win Rate: .706. Napier Is A Stabilizer, Not An Elevator.

Bob Chesney’s career record is 120-50 (.706) across four stops.

He won conference titles at Salve Regina, Assumption, Holy Cross, and JMU. He took Holy Cross to five straight Patriot League titles and four FCS playoff berths. In two seasons at JMU, he went 21-5 with a bowl win and a CFP appearance.

Chesney is a program elevator. He takes jobs and immediately exceeds their historical baseline.

Napier is a stabilizer. He wins when the infrastructure is already in place. He struggles when he has to build from scratch or compete above his weight class.

JMU fans aren’t upgrading. They’re trading upside for security.

That’s not necessarily a bad trade. But it’s the trade they’re making.

Year 1 Is The Excuse Year. Year 2 Is The Real Test.

Here’s how this plays out.

Year 1 (2026): The excuse year. Massive roster turnover. New staff. Learning the Sun Belt landscape again. Anything above 8-4 is a win. Anything below 7-5 is a problem.

Year 2 (2027): The prove-it year. By now, the roster is his. The system is installed. JMU should be competing for a Sun Belt title. If they’re not, questions start.

Year 3 (2028): The ceiling year. This is where we find out if Napier can match what Cignetti and Chesney built – or if he’s just maintaining altitude. A CFP appearance resets the clock. A third-place Sun Belt finish starts the hot seat conversation.

Napier has a five-year deal. But the real evaluation window is 24 months.

Good Hire. Not A Home Run. JMU Is Trading Upside For Security.

Billy Napier is a good hire for JMU.

He’s not a great hire. He’s not a home-run hire. He’s a logical, defensible, high-floor hire for a program that just lost its second coach in two years to a Power Four job.

The Sun Belt is his natural habitat. The roster he’s inheriting is better than anything he had at Louisiana. The financial structure works in his favor. And for the first time in his career, he’s publicly committed to getting out of his own way on gameday.

If he can stabilize the portal losses, maintain top-three Sun Belt recruiting, and actually let Cam Aiken call plays – JMU stays in the CFP conversation.

If he reverts to Florida habits – slow tempo, conservative playcalling, late-game collapses – the 40-10 era ends fast.

The stat that got him fired is the same stat that makes him perfect for JMU.

Now he has to prove it.

Want more coaching analysis like this? Subscribe to Coaches Hot Seat for weekly rankings of all 136 FBS coaches – plus deep dives on the hires, fires, and pressure situations shaping college football.

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Is Jim Mora an Upgrade Over Jay Norvell at Colorado State?

Mark Haines on January 7, 2026

Colorado State just made a bet.

Not a small bet. Not a ‘let’s see what happens’ bet. A real bet – the kind where you fire a coach coming off an 8-5 season because you believe something better exists. The kind where you write a check to a 64-year-old with 100+ career wins and say, ‘Finish what the last guy couldn’t.’ The kind that looks brilliant or foolish in three years, with very little in between.

Here’s what the numbers say.

The Tale of the Tape

Most fans will argue about ‘culture’ and ‘fit.’

That’s fine. But before we get into narratives, let’s look at what actually happened. Career numbers. Home and away splits. Performance against ranked teams. Late-season execution. Bowl results. The stuff that doesn’t care about press conferences.

Here’s the side-by-side:

Look at the ‘vs. Ranked’ row.

Mora is 14-18. Not dominant—but competitive. He’s been in those games. He’s won some of them. Norvell is 1-6. One win in seven tries against ranked opponents. That’s not bad luck. That’s a pattern. And patterns tell you what happens when the pressure goes up.

The late-season splits tell the same story.

What Norvell Built

Let’s be fair to the guy who just got fired.

Norvell inherited the Steve Addazio disaster. He brought energy. He brought recruits. He brought an 8-5 season that made CSU fans remember what winning felt like. That’s not nothing. But here’s the problem: one season doesn’t erase four years of data. And four years of data paint a different picture.

The numbers at CSU specifically:

18-31 overall.

Zero wins against ranked teams. Zero bowl wins. A .357 late-season record—meaning when November hit, the Rams folded. And here’s the detail that doesn’t show up in win-loss columns: across Norvell’s 18 victories, only two came against opponents who finished with winning records. The wins looked good on paper. They didn’t mean much in context.

Then came 2025: 2-9.

The UConn Proof of Concept

Here’s why CSU wrote the check.

Before Mora arrived, UConn was 9-50 over five seasons. Read that again. Nine wins in five years. An FBS program with no conference, no TV money, no hope. The kind of job you take to prove a point – or to disappear. Mora didn’t disappear.

In four years:

Look at that late-season number: .692.

When the games mattered, UConn won. Back-to-back nine-win seasons. Bowl eligibility in three of four years. A ranked upset. All at a program that had been left for dead. This isn’t theory. This is proof. Mora knows how to turn a broken program into a competitive one.

The question is whether he can do it one more time.

The UCLA Question

You can’t write about Mora without addressing how UCLA ended.

He started 29-11. Two 10-win seasons. A Pac-12 South title. Then: 17-19 over his final three years. Three straight losses to USC. Declining attendance. A $12 million buyout. The program had stagnated, and UCLA wanted a reset. That’s the honest version. But here’s what matters for CSU: the reasons Mora struggled at UCLA don’t necessarily apply to Fort Collins.

Different expectations. Different resources. Different definition of success.

Why This Fit Makes Sense

Three things line up here.

First: CSU is joining the rebuilt Pac-12. That means real TV money, a conference identity, and a path to the CFP. Mora has Pac-12 experience. He has West Coast recruiting ties. He knows what it takes to compete in that ecosystem. Second: CSU’s AD has promised actual investment: NIL, facilities, and staff. Mora never had those resources at UConn. If CSU delivers, his ceiling goes up significantly. Third: credibility. Norvell was a promising G5 profile. Mora is a known commodity with an NFL pedigree and 100+ wins.

CSU isn’t asking Mora to win a national title. They’re asking him to make the Rams relevant.

Where It Could Go Wrong

This isn’t a guarantee.

Mora is 64. His offensive philosophy skews conservative: ground-and-pound, control the clock. That’s not the explosive style dominating modern college football. If CSU under-invests, or if Mora whiffs on portal and staff hires, this becomes a ‘veteran stabilizer’ move instead of a transformational one. And remember: Norvell did go 8-5 with a 6-1 league record. Mora has to at least match that while navigating a tougher schedule and a transition year.

The bar isn’t zero. But the ceiling is higher.

The Bottom Line

On paper, this is a clear upgrade.

Career win rate: .578 vs .468. Bowl record: 12-9 vs 3-4. A proven rebuild at UConn. A Pac-12 South title at UCLA. Norvell raised the floor from the Addazio disaster, but he never proved he could sustain contention. He never beat a ranked team at CSU. He never won a bowl game. Mora has done all of those things—multiple times, at multiple programs.

CSU traded a promising profile for a proven builder.

The numbers say that’s the right call.

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Coastal Carolina Fans Wanted Chadwell 2.0. They Got Tim Beck With A Defensive Coat Of Paint

Mark Haines on January 5, 2026

This is not a home run. It’s a lateral move with a defensive coat of paint.

Coastal Carolina just replaced Tim Beck with Missouri State’s Ryan Beard, a 36-year-old defensive-minded coach who led his program to a 7-6 season in his second year at the FBS level. The move signals a clear philosophical shift: out with Beck’s offensive, QB-guru identity, in with a physical, havoc-creating defensive approach. Whether that recalibration leads to Sun Belt titles or just a different flavor of mediocrity remains the open question.

Here’s what we know about Beard’s résumé:

  • 14-11 overall as an FBS head coach (two seasons at Missouri State)
  • 7-5 in 2025
  • Got blown out 73-13 by his one ranked opponent (USC)
  • Lost his final three games of the season
  • Defenses at Missouri State set school records for sacks and produced back-to-back FCS playoff appearances before the FBS jump

That’s a mixed bag. Not a disaster. Not a clear upgrade either.

The Tim Beck Context

Beck wasn’t a catastrophe. He was a plateau.

Coastal went 6-6 in each of his final two seasons – bowl-eligible, but a far cry from the 31-6 run under Jamey Chadwell from 2020-22. The program didn’t collapse. It just stopped climbing. Late-season fades (.385 winning percentage down the stretch), and a 0-2 record against ranked opponents told the story of a team that couldn’t punch above its weight.

That’s why Beck is gone. Coastal’s investment level: enhanced salaries, an indoor facility, sustained bowl expectations, means 6-6 now gets you fired.

The FBS Comparison

On paper, Beard’s numbers are nearly identical to Beck’s. And the red flags are similar too.

MetricTim Beck (Coastal)Ryan Beard (Missouri State)
Overall Record20-18 (.526)14-11 (.560)
Home Record13-12 (.520)10-5 (.667)
Away Record6-6 (.500)4-5 (.444)
vs. Ranked0-20-1
Bowl Games1-10-0
Late-Season FadeYes (.385)Yes (lost final 3)

Beard is slightly better at home. Slightly worse on the road. Winless against ranked opponents. Winless in bowl games. And just like Beck, his teams collapse down the stretch.

This isn’t a clear upgrade. It’s a profile swap with the same underlying problems.

The Verdict

This hire makes sense in the process. Beard has shown he can manage roster building through structural change; FCS-to-FBS maps directly onto Sun Belt reality in the portal and NIL era. His defensive identity gives Coastal a clear schematic north star it lacked under Beck. And at 36, he’s young enough for a multi-cycle build if it works.

But the warning signs are hard to ignore.

Beard has never won double-digit games as a head coach. His one shot against a ranked opponent ended 73-13. And his teams fade late, the same problem that got Beck fired.

Coastal fans expecting Chadwell 2.0 should pump the brakes.

This is a medium-risk hire with a floor that looks a lot like what they just had. The Chanticleers are betting on defensive identity and culture over proven results. The trajectory could bend upward. But the evidence so far says this is a lateral move dressed up as a fresh start.

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Reader Sean Mullen says I Owe Ricky Rahne A Public Apology. So I Wrote One. He’s Not Going To Like How It Ends.

Mark Haines on December 22, 2025

Reader Sean Mullen sent me this message last week:

“Congratulations Mark on being completely wrong about Ricky Rahne at Old Dominion. Are you gonna do the right thing now and follow up and state publicly you were wrong?”

Fair enough.

In August, I predicted Rahne would be fired by November. Instead, ODU went 10-3, beat Virginia Tech on the road, won the Cure Bowl, and Rahne signed a 4-year extension.

I was wrong about 2025. Completely, unambiguously wrong.

But here’s the thing.

Sean’s victory lap proves exactly why some fans misunderstand how coaching evaluation works.

The Number Everyone Wants to Ignore

Ricky Rahne’s career record at Old Dominion: 30-33.

That’s a .476 winning percentage across five seasons on the field. Still below .500. Still losing more games than he wins over the full sample.

Before 2025, he was 20-30. He was 0-2 in bowl games. Three of his first four seasons were losing seasons.

One 10-win year doesn’t erase that. It changes the trajectory. It doesn’t rewrite history.

This is the part where someone says: “But Mark, he just won 10 games! The program is clearly headed in the right direction!”

Maybe. Probably, even.

But that’s not what Sean argued.

The Argument That Defeats Itself

Sean didn’t say “Rahne has turned a corner.”

He said I was wrong to ever question Rahne in the first place. That I “slung stupid crap without doing any research.“

The research was the problem.

Four years of data showed a coach who consistently lost close games, couldn’t win bowls, and failed to elevate ODU’s national profile. The 2025 prediction was based on roster losses, a brutal early schedule, and a pattern of fourth-quarter collapses.

The prediction was wrong. The pattern was real.

Virginia Tech and Indiana were supposed to expose ODU’s weaknesses. Instead, ODU beat Virginia Tech 45-26 and hung tough with the #1 team in America before losing. The roster losses that looked catastrophic on paper didn’t play out that way on the field.

That’s coaching. That’s development. That’s Rahne doing his job better than the data suggested he would.

Credit where it’s due.

But Here’s What Sean Missed

One year of evidence doesn’t invalidate four years of evidence.

It adds to it.

Rahne’s career now tells a more complete story: A coach who struggled to close games for four years, then figured something out in year five. A coach who went 0-2 in bowls, then won one. A coach who was below .500, and still is, but trending upward.

That’s a legitimate narrative. That’s a coach earning the benefit of the doubt.

What it’s not?

Proof that anyone who questioned him was “slinging stupid crap.”

The Real Problem With CFB Fandom in 2025

Here’s what drives me crazy about college football discourse:

The most recent season is the only season that matters.

Coach goes 10-3 after four losing seasons? He was always good, and anyone who questioned him was an idiot.

Coach goes 6-6 after three 10-win seasons? He’s washed, fire him immediately.

This is how you end up with coaching carousels that cost programs $50 million in buyouts. This is how you end up firing guys after one bad year and hiring guys after one good year.

One season is a data point. Five seasons is a sample.

Rahne now has a sample that says: below .500 overall, but improving. One bowl win after two bowl losses. A program trending up after years of stagnation.

That’s worth watching. That’s worth acknowledging.

It’s not worth rewriting history.

The Prediction I’ll Make Now

Ricky Rahne has earned his extension.

The 2025 season was legitimately impressive. Beating Virginia Tech. Beating a favored South Florida team in the bowl game. Winning 10 games with a backup quarterback in the biggest moments.

If he builds on this, the 20-30 start becomes a footnote in a successful tenure. He’ll have proven that the first four years were about building something that finally clicked.

But if ODU regresses in 2026? If they go 5-7 again?

The same people celebrating today will be calling for his head tomorrow.

Because that’s how this works now.

One year at a time. No memory. No sample size. Just whatever happened last Saturday.

The Bottom Line

I was wrong about Ricky Rahne in 2025.

The prediction said he’d be fired by November. Instead, he signed an extension and won a bowl game.

That’s the business. You make predictions based on available data. Sometimes the data misleads you. Sometimes coaches figure things out.

But Sean demanding I apologize for “slinging stupid crap”?

He’s doing the exact thing that makes coaching evaluation impossible: treating one season as the entire story.

Rahne is 30-33. He was 20-30 before this year. The pressure was real. The questions were legitimate .

2025 was a great answer.

It wasn’t the only answer that mattered.

What the Original Prediction Got Right (and Wrong)

Go back and read the August piece. Here’s what I said would happen:

“Indiana and Virginia Tech expose the inexperienced skill players. The secondary gives up multiple explosive plays.”

Indiana won. They’re now in the College Football Playoff. That part tracked.

Virginia Tech? ODU won 45-26. Not even close. Complete miss.

“The roster talent is evaporating. They’re replacing 2,229 yards of offense with players who produced 292 yards.”

The numbers were accurate. The conclusion was wrong. Rahne developed the replacements better than anyone expected. Devin Roche went from 274 yards to a 100-yard bowl game. Quinn Henicle went from backup to Cure Bowl MVP.

That’s coaching. That’s the part I didn’t account for.

“By Halloween, Ricky Rahne will be at the top of every coaching hot seat ranking in America.”

By Halloween, ODU was 7-3 and rolling toward a bowl bid.

Swing and a miss.

Here’s what I’ll stand by: The questions were legitimate. A 20-30 coach with an 0-2 bowl record and a pattern of close losses deserved scrutiny. The pressure was real.

Rahne answered it. That’s the story.

The prediction was wrong. The process wasn’t.

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Iowa State Hired Jimmy Rogers 72 Hours After Losing Matt Campbell. Now He Has to Replace a Legend With One Year of FBS Experience”

Mark Haines on December 18, 2025

Iowa State moved fast.

Matt Campbell took the Penn State job, and within days, the Cyclones had their guy. Jimmy Rogers, fresh off a 6-6 debut season at Washington State, now inherits a program that made the Big 12 Championship Game and became a legitimate conference contender under Campbell. The question everyone in Ames is asking: Can a 38-year-old coach with one FBS season under his belt sustain what Campbell built?

Here’s our breakdown.

The Resume

Rogers has won everywhere he’s been.

At South Dakota State, he went 27-3 over two seasons, capturing an FCS national championship in 2023 and reaching the semifinals in 2024. His overall head-coaching record is 33-9. That’s a .786 winning percentage, the kind of number that gets attention from Power Four athletic directors scanning the FCS ranks for the next big thing.

But there’s a caveat.

His lone FBS season produced a 6-6 record at Washington State, a program navigating life as a Pac-2 orphan with legitimate roster and scheduling challenges. Rogers rebuilt that roster with Jackrabbit transfers and freshmen, secured bowl eligibility with a late-season win over Oregon State, and showed an ability to self-correct when early offensive struggles threatened to derail the season.

Not spectacular. But not a disaster either.

What He Does Well

Defense is his calling card.

Rogers built dominant defensive units at South Dakota State, and that reputation followed him to Pullman. He understands how to scheme, develop players within a system, and create an identity on that side of the ball. For a Big 12 that has become increasingly offense-heavy, a defense-first coach could provide an interesting counterbalance.

Key strengths:

  • Defensive scheme expertise and player development
  • Deep Midwest recruiting ties and familiarity with Big 12 culture
  • Youth and energy (38 years old) for a program needing momentum
  • Demonstrated ability to adjust mid-season when things aren’t working

The Concerns

One year of FBS experience is a legitimate worry.

The jump from FCS to FBS is significant. The jump from FBS to Power Four is another leap entirely. Rogers now faces higher-level competition, greater media scrutiny, bigger recruiting battles, and the weight of following a coach who transformed Iowa State from a doormat into a contender. That’s a lot of pressure for someone still learning the FBS landscape.

Risk factors:

  • Limited Power Four head coaching experience
  • Iowa State’s financial resources lag behind Big 12 peers
  • Transfer portal management becomes critical with expected roster attrition
  • Following a legend creates unrealistic short-term expectations

The Washington State Tape

His 2025 season in Pullman tells us something important.

Rogers can keep a program afloat in adverse conditions. Washington State was a mess when he arrived: roster turnover, scheduling chaos, conference uncertainty. He didn’t elevate them to contender status, but he didn’t let the program crater either. Early offensive struggles (conservative run emphasis, quarterback questions, talent mismatches) were eventually addressed through real-time adjustments.

That adaptability matters at Iowa State.

The Breakdown

Here’s how Rogers stacks up across key categories:

CATEGORYSTRENGTHSCONCERNS
Record33-9 overall, FCS national championOnly 6-6 at FBS level
DefenseHighly regarded scheme and developmentMust adapt to Big 12 offenses
ExperienceMidwest familiarity, strong recruiting networkLimited Power Four head coaching
Program FitYouthful energy, cultural alignmentSucceeding a legend, portal challenges

The Bottom Line

This hire grades out as a B-minus.

Iowa State moved quickly to secure a coach with a proven ability to win at every stop. Rogers brings defensive credibility, Midwest roots, and the energy of a young coach on the rise. But he’s stepping into one of the toughest situations in college football, replacing a beloved coach, managing portal attrition, and competing with limited resources in an increasingly arms-race conference.

What to watch:

  • Can he retain enough talent through the portal to remain competitive in Year 1?
  • Will his defensive identity translate against Big 12 offensive firepower?
  • How patient will the Iowa State administration and fanbase be?

Year 1 will likely be stabilization mode, defense-first, mid-tier results, and a lot of learning. The real test comes in Years 2 and 3, when we’ll see if Rogers can recruit at the Power Four level and build something sustainable.

The pressure is real. But so is the opportunity.

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Penn State Fired A Coach Who Won 104 Games Because He Couldn’t Beat Elite Teams. Matt Campbell’s Record Says He Might Solve That Problem.

Mark Haines on December 16, 2025

Penn State didn’t hire Matt Campbell.

They settled for him.

After 54 days of chaos (Pat Kraft whiffing on Matt Rhule, Mike Elko, Kalen DeBoer, and watching Kalani Sitake use Happy Valley as leverage for a BYU extension), the Nittany Lions landed on a coach who was never Plan A. The search that began with dreams of “championship-level” coaching ended with a guy whose ceiling is an open question. And yet, this might be exactly what Penn State needs.

Here’s the uncomfortable truth:

Campbell is a better fit than the process suggests.

The Search Was a Disaster. The Outcome Wasn’t.

Let’s be clear about what happened.

Penn State fired James Franklin on October 12 after a 3-3 start, expecting to land a splash hire before the early signing period. Instead, Kraft conducted the longest Power 4 coaching search of the cycle. By National Signing Day, Penn State had signed exactly two recruits, ranking 134th nationally, while Franklin raided their class from Blacksburg. Former players called it “an unmitigated disaster.” Josh Pate said the search “feels lost.” Landon Tengwall called it “about as big a disaster as you could possibly imagine.”

All of that is true.

But none of it changes what Campbell actually brings.

The Franklin Comparison Everyone’s Making (And Getting Wrong)

The lazy take is that Penn State replaced Franklin with Franklin.

Both coaches hover around .600 win percentage. Both struggle against ranked opponents. Both have conference title game appearances but no championships. On paper, it looks like a lateral move. But that framing ignores context, and context is everything.

Here’s what the numbers actually say:

Campbell vs. Top 10 teams at Iowa State: 4-6 (40%)

Franklin vs. Top 10 teams at Penn State: 4-21 (16%)

Campbell won the same number of Top 10 games in 10 years at Iowa State as Franklin won in 11 years at Penn State. The difference? Campbell did it with the 68th-ranked roster in the talent composite. Franklin had top-10 recruiting classes almost every year.

That’s not the same coach.

That’s a coach who maximizes what he has, versus one who underperforms with what he’s given.

What Campbell Does Well

Campbell’s reputation isn’t built on schemes or slogans.

It’s built on development.

Before Campbell arrived in Ames, Iowa State hadn’t had a player drafted since 2014. Since then, he’s produced 15 NFL Draft picks, including Breece Hall, Brock Purdy, David Montgomery, and Will McDonald IV. He took a program that went 8-28 in the three years before he arrived and delivered eight winning seasons in ten years, two Big 12 title game appearances, and the program’s first-ever 11-win season in 2024.

His philosophy is simple: “Love, care, serve our players.”

That sounds soft until you realize his teams are consistently among the most physical in their conference. Campbell’s offensive identity is built on protecting the quarterback, running the ball downhill, and winning in the trenches. His defensive coordinator, Jon Heacock (who’s following him to Penn State), pioneered the 3-3-5 “three-high safety” scheme that’s been copied across college football. Iowa State ranked in the Big 12’s top three in scoring defense seven of the last eight years.

This isn’t a finesse operation.

It’s blue-collar football with a developmental edge.

The Staff Tells You Everything

Within days of being hired, Campbell made his philosophy clear.

He’s not here to manage someone else’s vision.

He let Jim Knowles walk to Tennessee, the highest-paid assistant in college football, fresh off a national title at Ohio State. He’s bringing his own people: Taylor Mouser as offensive coordinator, Jon Heacock on defense, Ryan Clanton on the offensive line, and Deon Broomfield in the secondary. Nine of his first ten hires came from Iowa State.

The only holdover? Terry Smith.

That’s significant. Smith was the interim coach who went 3-3 after Franklin’s firing. Players held up “HIRE TERRY SMITH” signs on the sideline. Keeping him signals continuity with the locker room while installing an entirely new system everywhere else.

Campbell isn’t blending philosophies.

He’s doing a full operating system replacement.

The Real Question: Can He Win the Games That Matter?

This is where skepticism is fair.

Campbell has never sustained a multi-year Top 10 operation. He’s 0-2 in conference championship games, losing to Oklahoma in 2020 and Arizona State in 2024. His teams have a habit of playing up to elite competition, only to fall short at the finish line. The 2020 Big 12 title game saw Iowa State fall behind 17-0 before mounting a comeback that came up short. The 2024 title game against Arizona State wasn’t close.

Sound familiar?

That’s the exact problem that got Franklin fired.

Penn State’s issue was never the floor. Franklin won 104 games in 11 seasons. The issue was the ceiling, specifically, a 4-21 record against Top 10 teams and a 2-21 record against Top 6 teams. The program that once competed for national titles under Joe Paterno has become a consistent “almost” program. Good enough to get ranked. Not good enough to break through.

Campbell’s track record doesn’t definitively answer whether he can fix that.

But the circumstances are different.

The Resource Upgrade Is Massive

Iowa State was a resource knife fight.

Campbell recruited against Oklahoma and Texas with a fraction of their budget, no blue-chip recruiting geography, and a fan base that had never seen sustained success. He turned Jack Trice Stadium into one of the toughest venues in the Big 12, but he was always swimming upstream.

Penn State is a different animal.

The Nittany Lions are committing $30 million in NIL money and $17 million in staff salary pool—among the highest commitments in the country. Campbell’s contract is $70.5 million guaranteed over eight years, with automatic extensions for playoff appearances. Beaver Stadium is undergoing a $700 million renovation. The recruiting geography includes Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Ohio, and the DMV corridor.

Campbell has never had these resources.

The bet is that a coach who went 72-55 at Iowa State, with five eight-win seasons and the program’s only 11-win campaign, can do significantly more when he’s not outgunned on every front.

What Nick Saban Got Right (And Wrong)

Saban weighed in on the hire, calling Campbell “a great coach who’s proven on a consistent basis.”

Then he issued a warning.

“These places that have, to me, a little bit of unrealistic expectations that we’re going to win the national championship… to make that sort of the goal – we gotta win the championship or we’re gonna get rid of the coach – to me is totally wrong. They’ll have a hard time doing it if that’s the approach that they take.”

Saban’s point is valid: championship-or-bust thinking creates instability. Penn State hasn’t won a national title since 1986. They’ve made one playoff appearance ever. Demanding immediate championships from Campbell is unrealistic.

But Saban’s framing also misses something.

Penn State didn’t fire Franklin because he wasn’t winning championships. They fired him because he went 4-21 against Top 10 teams with top-10 recruiting classes. The standard isn’t “win it all.” The standard is “don’t collapse against elite competition every single time.”

That’s a different bar.

And Campbell has a better track record of clearing it.

The Pressure Meter

Current Hot Seat Temperature: COLD

Campbell gets a honeymoon period. Penn State’s 2026 roster is inexperienced after the recruiting disaster, and expectations should be modest for Year 1. The $70.5 million guaranteed contract gives him runway. The administration is invested in patience after the Kraft search debacle embarrassed the university.

What Would Heat Things Up:

  • Losing to teams Penn State shouldn’t lose to (see: Franklin’s Northwestern loss)
  • Failing to establish a recruiting foothold in Pennsylvania
  • Another collapse against Ohio State/Oregon tier opponents in Years 2-3
  • Portal mismanagement or roster instability

What Keeps Him Safe:

  • 9-win floors with competitive losses to elite teams
  • Development of homegrown talent and smart portal additions
  • Playoff appearance by Year 3-4
  • Beating a Top 10 team at least once per season

Campbell isn’t on the hot seat.

But the leash is shorter than his contract suggests, because the last coach proved you can win 104 games and still get fired for not winning the right ones.

The Bottom Line

Matt Campbell is a floor hire, not a ceiling hire.

He stabilizes the program. He installs a coherent identity. He develops players. He builds culture. He doesn’t embarrass the university with off-field chaos. He gives Penn State a high floor of 8-9 wins with an occasional 10-win season.

Is that enough?

It depends on what Penn State actually wants.

If the goal is “be consistently good and occasionally great,” Campbell is an A hire. If the goal is “become Ohio State,” the jury is still out. Campbell has never built a dynasty. He’s never recruited at a top-5 national level. He’s never won a conference championship.

But he’s also never had the resources to try.

Penn State is betting that the coach who overachieved at Iowa State can break through when he’s finally playing with a full deck. It’s a reasonable bet, probably the most sensible option available after the search went sideways.

The question now is simple:

Can Matt Campbell win the games James Franklin couldn’t?

We’re about to find out.

What do you think of the Campbell hire? Send me an email and let me know. mark@coacheshotseat.com

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