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Duke Football 2025: The Blue Devils’ Quest to Build a Powerhouse

Mark Haines on February 25, 2025

Duke football just shocked the college football world—and they’re not done yet.

The Foundation Is Already Built (And It’s Rock Solid)

What happens when you combine a defensive mastermind head coach with elite talent in the ACC?

In 2024, we found out:

A surprising 9-4 record (5-3 in conference play)
Signature wins over rivals North Carolina, NC State, and Florida State
A defense that ranked 2nd nationally in tackles for loss (8.9 per game)
An offense that produced 244.3 passing yards per game
A Gator Bowl appearance that put Duke back on the national radar

But 2024 was just the warm-up act. Coach Manny Diaz is building something sustainable in Durham.

The $8 Million Quarterback Gamble That Changes Everything

The Blue Devils made the biggest quarterback splash in program history this offseason.

Darian Mensah isn’t just another transfer portal addition—he’s a program-defining investment. The former Tulane star, who commanded a reported $8 million deal over two years, brings legitimate star power to Wallace Wade Stadium.

Threw for 2,723 yards with 22 TDs and just 6 INTs in 2024
Led Tulane to the AAC Championship Game
Ranked as the #1 player in ESPN’s transfer portal rankings
Possesses the arm talent to unlock Duke’s downfield passing attack

The Blue Devils are betting big that Mensah can elevate them from “surprise team” to legitimate ACC contender.

A Defense Built to Terrorize Quarterbacks

While the offense will feature new faces, Duke’s defensive identity remains intact—and that should terrify ACC offensive coordinators.

The Blue Devils defense returns several key playmakers:

All-American cornerback Chandler Rivers (allowed just ONE touchdown in his final seven games)
All-American safety Terry Moore (71 tackles, 3 INTs in 2024)
A front seven that generated 43 sacks last season
An aggressive scheme that produced 13 interceptions and 14 fumble recoveries

Add Dartmouth transfer Josiah Green (unanimous All-Ivy selection) and Penn graduate transfer Will Seiler to the mix, and Duke’s defense appears primed to maintain its disruptive reputation.

The Best Recruiting Class in Program History Just Arrived

Building sustained success requires elite recruiting—and Duke just secured their highest-rated class in years.

The 2025 incoming class features:

A #33-35 national ranking (depending on which service you trust)
4-star DE Bryce Davis (ranked as high as #63 nationally)
4-star LB Bradley Gompers (Pennsylvania’s top prospect)
WR Jamien Little (ESPN 300 selection)
27 total commitments (quantity AND quality)

This influx of young talent ensures Duke won’t be a one-year wonder. The talent pipeline is flowing.

Will The Transfer Portal Gamble Pay Off?

Duke’s roster transformation extends far beyond just Mensah.

The Blue Devils aggressively attacked the transfer portal to reload after key departures:

WR Cooper Barkate (Harvard): 63 catches, 1,084 yards, 11 TDs in 2024
WR Andrel Anthony Jr. (Oklahoma): Former Michigan standout adds big-play ability
OL Jack Purcell (Penn): Experienced tackle to protect Mensah’s blindside
DL Kendy Charles (Liberty): Immediate impact player on the defensive front

Transfer portal success will determine whether Duke builds on 2024 or takes a step back.

The Brutal Reality of the 2025 Schedule

The path to an ACC Championship won’t be easy.

Duke faces nine opponents who reached bowl games or the College Football Playoff in 2024. The Blue Devils’ Week 2 clash with Illinois will immediately reveal whether this team is for real.

Conference showdowns with Miami, Clemson, and Virginia Tech will test Duke’s ability to compete with the ACC’s elite programs. How Diaz’s squad performs in these measuring-stick games will define their season.

Can Duke Football Finally Sustain Success?

The most fascinating question surrounding the 2025 Blue Devils isn’t about talent—it’s about the program’s historical inability to build on success.

Duke has the pieces in place: an established coach, a star quarterback, a disruptive defense, and upgraded talent. The blueprint is there.

Now, they just need to execute it.

For a program that has spent decades as an afterthought, 2025 represents Duke’s chance to prove they belong among the ACC’s contenders—not just for one magical season, but for the long haul.

The Blue Devils aren’t just building a team. They’re building a program.

Finally…

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The Reinvention: How Clemson Built College Football’s Most Dangerous Program For 2025

Mark Haines on February 24, 2025

Want to know the exact moment Clemson football became college football’s most fascinating program heading into 2025?

It wasn’t winning the ACC Championship in 2024 or making another College Football Playoff appearance. It was when Dabo Swinney finally decided to evolve Clemson football.

The Transformation Nobody Saw Coming

For years, Clemson football built championship teams the old-school way:

Recruit elite high school talent
Develop them over time
Trust the process
Resist modern trends

Then everything changed.

The Portal Revolution That Shocked College Football

Here’s what makes Clemson football’s transfer portal strategy so brilliant – they’re not just adding players. They’re adding perfect pieces to an already-loaded roster:

Will Heldt (Purdue Edge Rusher):

56 tackles and 5 sacks in 2024
Two years of eligibility remaining
Immediate impact potential in Tom Allen’s defense
Perfect complement to T.J. Parker’s pass rush

Jeremiah Alexander (Alabama LB):

Former 5-star recruit
27 games of SEC experience
Elite athleticism and versatility
Fills a crucial defensive need

Tristan Smith (Southeast Missouri State WR):

934 receiving yards in 2024
Brings size to the receiver room
Ready-made replacement for graduating talent
Perfect fit for Riley’s offense

But Here’s What Everyone’s Missing About The Portal Strategy

Swinney isn’t abandoning his principles. He’s enhancing them.

The 2025 recruiting class proves it:

Elite High School Talent:

Amare Adams (5-star DL, ranked 7th nationally)
Gideon Davidson (4-star RB, 2,700 yards as junior)
Marquise Henderson (4-star RB, explosive playmaker)
Ari Watford (4-star edge rusher)
Brayden Jacobs (4-star offensive tackle)

The Tom Allen Effect: More Than Just A Coordinator Hire

When Clemson hired Tom Allen, they didn’t just get a defensive coordinator.

They got a complete defensive reinvention.

Here’s what makes Allen’s system unique:

Aggressive blitz packages
Multiple fronts that confuse offenses
Elite rush defense principles
Turnover-focused mentality

And here’s the talent he gets to work with:

Defensive Line:

Peter Woods (dominant interior force)
T.J. Parker (11 sacks in 2024)
Will Heldt (transfer portal addition)
Amare Adams (5-star freshman)

Linebackers:

Wade Woodaz (83 tackles, 10 TFL)
Barrett Carter (82 tackles, 11 TFL)
Jeremiah Alexander (Alabama transfer)
Sammy Brown (80 tackles as a freshman)

Secondary:

Khalil Barnes (4 interceptions)
Avieon Terrell (12 pass breakups)
R.J. Mickens (75 tackles)
Ashton Hampton (2 INTs, including pick-six)

The Offensive Evolution That Changes Everything

Want to know why Garrett Riley’s offense could explode in 2025?

It’s not just about the system anymore. It’s about mastery.

The Quarterback Evolution:

Cade Klubnik’s progression (3,639 yards, 36 TDs)
Three years in Riley’s system
Elite decision-making (only 6 INTs in 2024)
True Heisman potential

The Weapons:

Antonio Williams (904 yards, 11 TDs)
Bryant Wesco Jr. (708 yards, 5 TDs)
T.J. Moore (651 yards, 5 TDs)
Jake Briningstool (530 yards, 7 TDs)
Tristan Smith (transfer addition)

The System:

Power Raid principles
Multiple formation looks
Tempo control
Perfect run-pass balance

Why The 2024 Stats Only Tell Half The Story

The numbers were impressive:

451.9 yards per game (11th nationally)
34.7 points per game
278.5 passing yards per game
173.4 rushing yards per game

But here’s what makes 2025 different:

Full system implementation
Experienced personnel at every position
Enhanced playbook options
A perfect balance of speed and power

The Schedule: A Path To The Playoff

The 2025 schedule isn’t just challenging. It’s an opportunity.

Key Games:

Season-defining road test at LSU
Critical ACC matchups
Rivalry showdown with South Carolina
Potential playoff implications every week

The Championship Formula

Here’s why 2025 could be extraordinary:

The Perfect Storm:

Elite talent at every position
Innovative coaching on both sides
Championship experience
Modern roster building
Traditional program values

The Evolution:

Swinney’s adapted philosophy
Riley’s offensive mastery
Allen’s defensive revolution
Portal-enhanced roster
Elite recruiting foundation

The Bottom Line

Most programs either stick to tradition or chase every trend.

Clemson’s done something different.

They’ve taken everything that made them great:

Championship culture
Elite development
Winning tradition
Strong leadership

And added everything they needed:

Modern roster building
Innovative schemes
Aggressive defense
Explosive offense

That’s why 2025 isn’t just another season. It’s the year everything comes together. And the rest of college football should be terrified.

Finally…

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Cal Football 2025: A Program at the Crossroads

Mark Haines on February 21, 2025

Every college football program has a breaking point.

That point for the California Golden Bears, aka Cal Football, is a .490 winning percentage—what industry insiders call the “Minimum Acceptable” (MA) winning percentage. This proprietary metric, developed by Coaches Hot Seat (the authority on coaching job security), is a data-driven warning system. The countdown typically begins when a coach’s record falls below this threshold.

Justin Wilcox’s winning percentage currently sits at .457.

The Numbers Tell A Story (And It’s Not A Happy One)

Let’s look at Cal’s progression over the past three seasons:

Cal Football’s future depends on addressing these challenges and improving their overall performance.

2022: 4-8 overall (2-7 in conference)
2023: 6-7 overall (4-5 in conference)
2024: 6-7 overall (2-6 in conference)

This isn’t just a pattern—it’s a problem. Wilcox’s tenure has been defined by incremental improvements followed by stagnation. The trajectory suggests a program stuck in neutral rather than building towards sustained success.

The $15 Million Question

Here’s what makes Cal’s situation particularly fascinating:

Wilcox is under contract through 2027
His 2025 compensation package totals $4.8 million
His buyout sits at approximately $15 million
His winning percentage remains below the critical .490 threshold

The Bears find themselves caught between the cost of change and the price of staying the same. Administrators loathe paying hefty buyouts, but they also know stagnation can cost even more—lost ticket sales, declining donations, and recruiting struggles. It’s a classic case of fiscal conservatism vs. competitive ambition.

But Here’s Where It Gets Interesting

Sensing the pressure, Wilcox has made his boldest move yet: a complete offensive overhaul.

The headline-grabber? Bryan Harsin as offensive coordinator. The subplot? Nick Rolovich as a senior offensive assistant.

Harsin, the former Auburn and Boise State head coach, brings a proven offensive system but arrives with baggage after a tumultuous SEC tenure. Rolovich getting a shot at a new coaching gig is fascinating—not just because of his high-risk, high-reward offensive mind but also because his tenure at Washington State ended over his refusal to comply with state vaccine mandates, not because of poor coaching.

Here’s what these moves tell us:

Wilcox finally acknowledges the need for wholesale offensive change.
The program is willing to take calculated risks on controversial but talented coaches.
The “defensive-minded” head coach is ceding offensive control.

The Numbers That Matter

Take a look at this offensive progression (or regression):

The decline in rushing yards from 2023 to 2024 is alarming. The offense isn’t just struggling—it’s losing its identity. For a team that relies on ball control and keeping its defense fresh, that’s a major red flag.

But here’s the silver lining—defensive improvement:

Wilcox’s defenses remain his calling card, and the strides made in 2024 suggest a unit capable of keeping Cal competitive. But in today’s college football landscape, defense alone doesn’t win championships—or job security.

The X-Factor Nobody’s Talking About

Rich Lyons.

Cal’s new chancellor isn’t just any administrator—he’s the first Cal undergraduate to hold the position in nearly a century. And he’s already talking about making football “self-supporting.”

This matters for three reasons:

It signals potential changes in program evaluation. Wilcox isn’t just competing against expectations; he’s competing against financial sustainability models.
It suggests new approaches to resource allocation. Don’t expect deep-pocketed institutional support if the football program can’t prove its worth.
It adds another layer of pressure to perform. Wilcox now has a boss who understands the program’s impact on the university and might not be as patient as previous chancellors.

Here’s What Nobody Wants To Say Out Loud

The 2025 season isn’t just another year for Cal football.

It’s a referendum.

On Wilcox.
On the program’s direction.
On whether Cal can compete in the modern college football landscape.

With realignment reshaping conferences, NIL deals changing recruiting, and fan engagement at a premium, the Golden Bears can’t afford to drift any further into mediocrity. A failure to break through in 2025 could push the program toward drastic change.

The Bottom Line

The tools for success are there:

New offensive philosophy
Improved defensive metrics
Fresh administrative perspective
Second year in the ACC (without having to face Miami, Clemson, or Florida State)

But here’s the truth nobody wants to acknowledge:

None of it matters if Cal can’t finally break through that .490 threshold.

Because in college football, you either evolve or dissolve.

And 2025 will tell us which path Cal has chosen.

Finally…

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Ohio State’s Championship Quest – Inside the Buckeye’s 2024 Campaign

Mark Haines on January 18, 2025

The Buckeyes’ 13-2 season demonstrates how, when properly deployed, elite talent can overcome almost any obstacle.

An Aerial Assault That Commands Respect

Will Howard transformed Ohio State’s passing game into one of college football’s most lethal weapons.

The numbers tell the story of aerial dominance:

265.1 passing yards per game
71% completion rate
35 passing touchdowns
Two 900+ yard receivers (Smith: 1,227, Egbuka: 947)
14 touchdowns from Smith alone
10 scores from Egbuka

This passing attack kept defensive coordinators awake at night.

Ground Game: The Perfect Complement

While the passing game grabbed headlines, Ohio State’s rushing attack quietly devastated opponents.

The two-headed monster in the backfield produced consistently:

TreVeyon Henderson: 967 yards at 7.3 yards per carry
Quinshon Judkins: 960 yards at 5.2 yards per carry
Combined for 22 rushing touchdowns
Team average of 163.2 rushing yards per game
The perfect balance to keep defenses honest
Exceptional ability to close out games

This rushing attack turned good drives into great ones.

A Defense Built on Disruption

Ohio State’s defense didn’t just stop opponents – it broke their will to compete.

The defensive dominance showed in multiple ways:

Only 89.9 rushing yards allowed per game
Held runners to 2.7 yards per carry
Generated 51 sacks (led by J.T. Tuimoloau’s 11.5)
Created 111 tackles for loss
Limited opponents to 12 rushing touchdowns all season
Consistently dominated the line of scrimmage

This unit transformed pressure into production.

The Day Factor: Strategic Evolution

Ohio State head coach Ryan Day reacts to a replay during the first half of an NCAA college football game against Michigan Saturday, Nov. 30, 2024, in Columbus, Ohio. (AP Photo/Jay LaPrete)

Ryan Day’s approach to game management reveals a coach willing to adapt and innovate.

His impact manifested in several key areas:

Increased deep passing plays to 15% in playoffs
Implemented the crucial “middle eight” minutes strategy
Moved offensive coordinator to the press box
Created specific roles for key transfers
Developed new film study protocols
Built a “no bad days” culture

Results proved the effectiveness of these changes.

Playoff Performance That Demanded Attention

Ohio State’s postseason run showcased their ability to elevate their game when it mattered most.

Critical adjustments defined their playoff success:

Increased vertical passing attack
Strategic player rotation to maintain freshness
Enhanced coordinator collaboration
Systematic in-game adjustments
Improved third-down conversion rate
Superior momentum management

Each game revealed new depths to their capabilities.

Areas of Concern

Even championship contenders have their vulnerabilities.

Nervous young Latin man using TV remote control on home couch, feeling annoyed, angry, concerned, watching football match, show, getting problems with broadcasting

Key weaknesses that need addressing:

Red zone efficiency (73.3% field goal conversion)
Pass protection issues, especially after key injuries
Secondary vulnerabilities (59.8% completion percentage allowed)
Fourth-quarter defensive fatigue
Below-average punt return game (9.0 yards per return)
Conservative tendencies in crucial moments

These issues provide clear focus areas for improvement.

The Day Difference

Ryan Day’s unique approach to game management sets Ohio State apart.

His distinctive strategies include:

Reframing bye weeks as “improvement weeks”
Increasing playoff game personal involvement
Implementing systematic player rotation
Using innovative analysis tools
Creating accountability systems
Maintaining consistent practice habits

This methodology has proven both effective and controversial.

The Championship Formula

Success in modern college football requires both innovation and tradition.

Ohio State’s formula :

Elite talent development
Strategic adaptability
Cultural consistency
Tactical innovation
Physical dominance
Mental toughness

One question remains: Will this be enough to claim college football’s ultimate prize?

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The Chess Match: Two Coaches, Two Programs, One Bowl Game Collision – SMU at Penn State

Mark Haines on December 20, 2024

Nobody expected SMU’s Rhett Lashlee to pull off what might be college football’s most remarkable transformation story of 2023.

In just three years, Lashlee has engineered what old-guard football minds considered impossible:

Transforming a middling SMU program into an 11-2 powerhouse
Dominating their inaugural ACC season with swagger and style
Accumulating a jaw-dropping 21-3 conference record that has athletic directors nationwide reaching for their checkbooks

The Established Empire Watches

Meanwhile, in Happy Valley, James Franklin continues orchestrating Penn State’s methodical march toward college football supremacy. His Nittany Lions mirror their coach: disciplined, relentless, and utterly predictable in their pursuit of excellence.

A Tale of Two Systems

What makes this bowl matchup fascinating isn’t just the clash of programs – it’s the statistical symmetry that shouldn’t exist:

The offenses move like twins separated at birth: SMU churning out 443.1 yards per game, Penn State barely ahead at 448.6. But defense? That’s where Franklin’s philosophy reveals itself in cold, hard numbers. His unit surrenders just 282.1 yards per game, while SMU’s gives up 326.1.

The X-Factor That Changes Everything

Here’s where the story takes its dramatic turn. SMU lost quarterback Preston Stone, the architectural centerpiece of their offensive explosion. Into this vacuum steps Kevin Jennings, talented but untested, facing a trial by fire against one of college football’s most sophisticated defensive machines.

The Ground Game Chess Match

Football often reveals its true nature in the running game, and here’s where the contrasts sharpen:

SMU rides Brashard Smith’s explosive 1,270 yards and 14 touchdowns
Penn State counters with a two-headed monster: Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen, combining for over 1,600 yards of controlled destruction.

The Final Act

The smart money sees Penn State emerging victorious, 31-17, not because they’re the better program—but because they’re the more complete program at this precise moment in time. The loss of Stone isn’t just about missing a quarterback; it’s about missing the keystone of an offensive architecture that took three years to perfect.

Ultimately, this game might tell us less about who wins and more about where college football is heading. Lashlee’s SMU represents the bold new challengers, while Franklin’s Penn State embodies the power of systematic, year-over-year excellence. And that’s the real story worth watching.

Game at a Glance

Game: SMU at Penn State

Time: Noon Eastern

TV: TNT

	SMU	Penn State
Record	11-2	11-2
Points Per Game	38.54	34.38
Points Allowed	20.85	16.38
Total Offense	443.1 ypg	448.6 ypg
Total Defense	326.1 ypg	282.1 ypg
SRS Rating	16.66 (8th)	17.20 (6th)
Strength of Schedule	2.51 (49th)	4.20 (30th)

Key Personnel Changes

SMU Impact Losses:

QB Preston Stone (3,471 yards, 27 TDs, 9 INTs)
Kevin Jennings steps in (3,050 yards, 22 TDs, 8 INTs)
CB Jahari Rogers
DL Omari Abor

Penn State Impact Losses:

QB Beau Pribula (275 yards, 5 TDs, 242 rushing yards)
Drew Allar remains the starter (2,894 yards, 21 TDs, 7 INTs)

Key Matchups

Quarterback Battle:
Kevin Jennings must lead SMU’s offense against Penn State’s elite defense that allows only 16.38 points per game

Ground Game:

SMU: Brashard Smith (1,270 yards, 5.9 avg, 14 TDs)
Penn State: Nicholas Singleton (838 yards, 6.4 avg, 7 TDs) and Kaytron Allen (822 yards, 4.8 avg, 6 TDs)

Defensive Edge:
Penn State’s defense allows only 103.6 rushing yards per game and has accumulated 33 sacks.

Final Score:

Penn State 31 SMU 17

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The New Economics of College Football: Understanding the Transfer Portal Panic

Mark Haines on December 13, 2024

In two years, college football’s talent market transformed from an orderly command economy into a chaotic free market that would make cryptocurrency traders blush. The New Economics of College Football: Understanding the Transfer Portal Panic examines how over 750 players entering the transfer portal this month isn’t evidence of a broken system – it’s proof of a market finally finding its equilibrium. What looks like chaos to anxious fans refreshing their Twitter feeds is the messy emergence of college football’s first true labor market, complete with hidden negotiations, market-making general managers earning NFL-style salaries, and the type of resource allocation decisions that would make a hedge fund manager sweat. The panic isn’t about dysfunction – it’s about price discovery. And in this new world of college football economics, the only thing more expensive than talent is inexperience in managing it.

Detroit, MI – USA – 10-21-2024: A Wilson football from above on a pile of money

On a crisp December morning, as college football fans refreshed their Twitter feeds with increasing anxiety, Brandon Huffman sat in a Nashville office explaining how the sport they love had fundamentally changed. The 24/7 Sports national recruiting editor wasn’t talking about offensive schemes or defensive alignments – he was describing market dynamics, negotiation strategies, and the emergence of a new power broker in college football: the general manager.

“You’re seeing schools play better defense in terms of keeping the guys that they really want,” Huffman explained, choosing his words carefully. “But you’re also seeing schools playing offense too.” He wasn’t talking about X’s and O’s. He was talking about money.

Welcome to college football’s new reality: over 750 players have entered the transfer portal this year alone. The panic among fan bases is palpable but misplaced. What looks like chaos from the outside is the messy emergence of a more structured market that increasingly mirrors the NFL’s free agency system, just without the benefit of its carefully regulated calendar and certified agent requirements.

The Hidden Market

What fans don’t see – and what’s driving much of their anxiety – is that most of these transfers aren’t surprises to the coaches and administrators involved. “Players’ handlers have been marketing these guys to schools for weeks,” one Power Five administrator admitted. The public announcements that send fans into a frenzy are often merely the formal acknowledgment of deals that have been in quiet negotiation for months.

This hidden market has created a new role in college football: the general manager. Stanford made waves by appointing Andrew Luck to this position, but they’re hardly alone. These GMs are being paid coordinator-level salaries ($500,000+) to manage what has essentially become an NFL-style front office. They’re not just evaluating talent – they’re managing salary caps before they officially exist.

The Price of Talent

The numbers are striking. Elite high school quarterbacks can command seven-figure deals before taking a single collegiate snap. However, the market is increasingly favoring proven production over potential. A quarterback who’s shown success at a lower level (FCS or Group of Five) can often command more than a highly-touted high school prospect who’s spent two years on the bench at a blue-blood program.

“If you’re smart and you play the long game, you might get that back-end deal,” Huffman noted. “But that would mean you’d have to wait three years to get that back-end deal. Most guys are going to jump at the front-end money.”

The Fan Fallacy

When a player enters the portal, fan bases blame the coaching staff. While this instinct is natural, it misunderstands the new economics of college football. Sometimes, a player’s departure isn’t about coaching failure—it’s about resource allocation.

Consider the case of a starting left tackle entering the portal. Fans see a failure to retain talent. The GM sees a financial decision: Is it better to pay the experienced tackle $750,000 or redistribute that money to lock down the promising quarterback and find a cheaper replacement through the portal?

The Development Dilemma

This new market creates interesting incentives around player development. The immediate availability of proven transfers challenges the traditional model of patiently developing talent over several years. Why spend three years developing a backup quarterback when you can acquire one who has already proven themselves at a lower level?

But this shift comes with risks. The constant churn of transfers can disrupt team chemistry and system familiarity. Players jumping from system to system may stunt their development while chasing larger contracts.

The Negotiation Gap

Not every program has embraced the GM model, creating a fascinating dichotomy in handling transfer negotiations. Head coaches often play dual roles at programs without a dedicated GM: talent evaluator and chief negotiator. It’s a precarious position that can create several problems.

First, there’s the time constraint. Head coaches are already among the busiest people in athletics, managing current players, game planning, and traditional recruiting. Adding complex financial negotiations to their plate stretches them even thinner. “When the head coach is your primary negotiator, you’re telling them to be Nick Saban and Jerry Jones simultaneously,” one Power Five assistant noted. “Something’s got to give.”

More importantly, it creates relationship complications. When a head coach directly negotiates compensation with players or their representatives, it fundamentally changes the coach-player dynamic. A coach who has to tell a player they’re not worth their asking price on Tuesday still needs to motivate that player on Saturday. It’s a potentially toxic dynamic that the GM model aims explicitly to avoid.

There’s also the expertise factor. Most head coaches didn’t rise through the ranks by being skilled financial negotiators. They’re football minds, not market makers. When negotiating against professional agents or marketing representatives, they often play an away game without a playbook.

Some programs have tried to bridge this gap by empowering recruiting coordinators or player personnel directors to handle negotiations. However, without a GM’s formal authority and budget control, these stopgap solutions often create more confusion than clarity in the negotiation process.

The Future Market

Revenue sharing is coming to college football, with estimates suggesting teams will have around $20 million to distribute among players. Many believe this will calm the current chaos by standardizing payment structures. The reality is likely more complex.

“The rich will still get richer,” Huffman predicted, “because the collectives are still going to be involved.” Revenue sharing won’t replace NIL deals – it will layer on top of them, creating an even more complex market for GMs to navigate.

Successful programs will develop clear strategies for this new market. Some will focus on high school recruitment and development, accepting that they’ll lose some players to transfer but betting on their ability to develop new talent. Others will embrace the portal, treating it as their primary talent pipeline. Most will likely land somewhere in between, but all must be more transparent with their players about their market value and team-building strategy.

The transfer portal isn’t chaos – it’s a market finding equilibrium. The panic it creates comes not from its dysfunction but from our unfamiliarity with its new rules. For fans, the best advice might be the simplest: calm down, let it play out, and trust that this year’s “crisis” is just next year’s normal.

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Coaching Changes Updated

Mark Haines on December 9, 2024

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Offense vs. Defense: Georgia and Texas Face Off in the SEC Conference Championship Game

Mark Haines on December 6, 2024

Tomorrow night at Mercedes-Benz Stadium, two college football titans collide in the SEC Conference Championship game. It’s a showdown that transcends the scoreboard; Georgia, the reigning powerhouse with its electrifying offense led by Carson Beck, takes on a Texas team rewriting the rules of modern football with a defense that has defied all expectations. In an age dominated by high-flying offenses, the Longhorns have forged a defensive identity that could prove revolutionary. As these contrasting approaches meet, the question looms: Can a defensive renaissance overcome the offensive evolution that has defined this era of the sport?

The Evolution Game: How Texas Built a Defense for Modern Football

The numbers tell a story, but not the one you’d expect. In the gleaming, antiseptic confines of Mercedes-Benz Stadium, two football programs will meet tomorrow night, each representing a different answer to the same question: How do you win in an era when offense has seemingly broken the sport?

Let’s Break It Down:

Overall Records and Rankings

Texas: 11-1 record, ranked #2
Georgia: 10-2 record, ranked #5

Texas has a slight edge in overall record and ranking heading into the championship game.

Offensive Performance

Passing Game

Texas: 274.6 yards per game, 33 touchdowns, 9 interceptions
Georgia: 297.0 yards per game, 28 touchdowns, 12 interceptions

Georgia has a slight advantage in passing yards, but Texas has been more efficient with more touchdowns and fewer interceptions.

Rushing Game

Texas: 175.5 yards per game, 21 touchdowns
Georgia: 128.3 yards per game, 22 touchdowns

Though touchdown production is similar, Texas has a significant edge in rushing yards.

Total Offense

Texas: 450.1 yards per game
Georgia: 425.3 yards per game

Texas holds a slight advantage in total offensive production.

Defensive Performance

Against the Pass

Texas: 143.7 yards allowed per game, 3 touchdowns allowed
Georgia: 196.3 yards allowed per game, 12 touchdowns allowed

Texas has been significantly stronger against the pass.

Against the Run

Texas: 103.5 yards allowed per game, 9 touchdowns allowed
Georgia: 135.8 yards allowed per game, 14 touchdowns allowed

Texas again shows superiority in run defense.

Total Defense

Texas: 247.2 yards allowed per game
Georgia: 332.1 yards allowed per game

Texas has a clear advantage in overall defensive performance.

Key Players

Texas

QB Quinn Ewers: 2307 yards, 24 TDs, 7 INTs
RB Tre Wisner: 812 rushing yards, 3 TDs
WR Matthew Golden: 576 receiving yards, 8 TDs

Georgia

QB Carson Beck: 3429 yards, 28 TDs, 12 INTs
RB Trevor Etienne: 477 rushing yards, 7 TDs
WR Arian Smith: 709 receiving yards, 4 TDs

Strength of Schedule

Texas SOS: 4.51 (29^th)
Georgia SOS: 5.79 (15^th)

Both teams have faced tough SEC competition. Notable results:

Texas defeated Oklahoma 34-3 and lost to Georgia 30-15 earlier in the season
Georgia lost to Alabama 41-34 and Ole Miss 28-10, but defeated Texas 30-15

What do all of these stats tell us about the game?

Georgia’s answer has been more offense. Their quarterback, Carson Beck, has thrown for 3,429 yards in a season that would have seemed impossible just a decade ago. The Bulldogs have embraced the modern game’s aerial evolution, turning their once-conservative offense into a high-flying circus that treats the forward pass not as a risk but as their primary currency of war.

But Texas presents the more fascinating case study. In an age when defensive coordinators have become the game’s equivalent of medieval archers—hopelessly firing arrows at increasingly sophisticated war machines—the Longhorns have done something remarkable: They’ve built a defense that works.

The numbers are staggering in their improbability: Three passing touchdowns allowed, all season. In the modern SEC, this is like finding a hedge fund that shorted the housing market in 2007. It simply shouldn’t be possible.

“Everyone thought defense was dead,” a Power Five defensive coordinator said anonymously. “What Texas has done… it’s like they’ve found a market inefficiency in football.”

That inefficiency manifests in the most basic statistical comparison: Texas allows 247.2 yards per game. Georgia, with all its championship pedigree and five-star recruits, gives up 332.1. The gap between them – roughly 85 yards – is the difference between a good defense and one rewriting our understanding of what’s possible in modern college football.

Quinn Ewers, Texas’s quarterback, puts up numbers that would have made him a Heisman frontrunner in 2013. In 2024, they almost feel quaint: 2,307 yards, 24 touchdowns. A decade ago, this would have been the story. Now, it’s almost an afterthought to what Texas has built on the other side of the ball.

The irony isn’t lost on anyone following college football’s evolution. Texas, the program that once gave us Vince Young and helped usher in the era of the dual-threat quarterback, has become the last best hope for defensive football. They’ve taken the principles that once made the SEC the nation’s preeminent conference—suffocating defense, controlled offense, and field position—and modernized them for an age when most programs have abandoned them entirely.

Georgia beat this Texas team earlier this year, 30-15. But that game feels like it was played in a different season, maybe even a different era. Since then, Georgia has shown cracks in its armor – losses to Alabama and Ole Miss that suggested maybe, just maybe, the offensive revolution has its limits.

Tomorrow night’s game isn’t just about a championship. It’s about two competing theories of football evolution. Georgia represents the conventional wisdom: that offense is king, that the forward pass has fundamentally altered the sport’s DNA, and that the only way to win is to score more than your opponent can manage.

Texas represents something else: the idea that maybe defense isn’t dead, that with the right combination of scheme, talent, and organizational philosophy, you can still win the way teams used to win, and that innovation in football doesn’t always mean more points, yards, or everything.

The safe bet is on Georgia. Experience matters in games like this. Championship DNA is real. The ability to perform under pressure isn’t just a cliché – it’s a measurable advantage in high-stakes situations.

But there’s something about this Texas team that feels like it’s tapping into something more fundamental about football. They’ve found a way to make defense work in an era when defense isn’t supposed to work.

Tomorrow night, we’ll find out if that’s enough.

Game Prediction Based on The Noise Trade

In high-frequency trading, there’s a phenomenon known as “noise.” It happens when emotional reactions and human behavior temporarily distort the underlying mathematics of the market. Smart traders don’t fight noise—they account for it in their models.

Tomorrow night in Atlanta, we will witness a real-world experiment in football’s version of noise trading. The mathematics remain pristine: Texas’s defense has discovered something fundamental about modern football, reducing opposing offenses to a series of low-probability bets, like a card counter who has figured out how to limit the house edge. The numbers – 247.2 yards allowed per game, three passing touchdowns all season – aren’t just statistics. They’re proof of concept.

But Mercedes-Benz Stadium won’t be a sterile laboratory. Texas’s returned ticket allotment means the building will be packed with Georgia fans, 71,000 traders all betting emotionally on the home team. In financial terms, this is the quintessential “noise trade” – a factor that shouldn’t matter to the underlying mathematics but matters to how those mathematics play out in the real world.

Here’s what makes this fascinating: Texas’s defensive innovation isn’t like the complex derivatives that collapsed under pressure in 2008. It’s more like the simplicity of card counting – a fundamental mathematical advantage that works regardless of the casino’s ambient noise. Their defenders don’t need elaborate verbal communications to maintain perfect leverage, just like a card counter doesn’t need quiet to keep their count.

Quinn Ewers will face the noise directly. His 2,307 passing yards and 24 touchdowns were accumulated in environments where his offensive system could operate at peak efficiency. Tomorrow night, he’ll be trading in a hostile market. But Texas’s offense, like their defense, is built on fundamentals rather than complexity. They don’t try to arbitrage small advantages through elaborate pre-snap adjustments. They take what the market gives them and execute with precision.

Carson Beck and his 3,429 passing yards represent the conventional wisdom of modern football – that offense always wins and that you can score your way out of any problem. He’ll have the crowd behind him, but he’ll still face the same mathematical problem that has stumped every other quarterback: how do you generate explosive plays against a defense that has systematically removed them from the equation?

The smart money says the noise traders—Georgia’s crowd—will impact the market enough to matter. And they will. Texas’s offensive efficiency will drop, and its defensive communication will face challenges it hasn’t seen all season. The math says Texas should win by two touchdowns, but the noise suggests something closer.

Final Score: Texas 27, Georgia 23

But watch what happens in the fourth quarter. Suppose Texas’s defensive innovation is as fundamental as the numbers suggest. In that case, we’ll see something remarkable: a system so mathematically sound that it works even when the market is most irrational. That’s not just a championship victory – it’s proof that someone has solved a problem everyone else thought was unsolvable.

The noise traders will go home disappointed. And by next season, every program in America will be trying to reverse engineer what Texas has built, just like every casino eventually had to change its rules once enough people learned to count cards. Innovation, in football as in markets, has a way of becoming conventional wisdom – right up until the next revolution begins.

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Big Ten Conference Championship Preview: Oregon vs Penn State

Mark Haines on December 5, 2024

We’ve broken down both teams – Oregon vs Penn State for the Big Ten Conference Championship Game. We’re calling this game:

The Perfect Season Meets the Perfect Defense: A Tale of Two Programs

In the high-stakes world of college football, where billions of dollars flow through palatial training facilities and coaches’ contracts read like small-nation GDPs, two programs have found remarkably different paths to the same destination. The Oregon Ducks, with their Silicon Valley-meets-Saturday-afternoon approach to offense, carry the weight of an unblemished 12-0 record. Their opponents, the Penn State Nittany Lions, have turned defensive football into a kind of performance art, yielding yards with all the generosity of a loan shark.

The numbers tell a story that Vegas oddsmakers have been struggling to decode. Oregon’s offense, orchestrated by the Oklahoma transfer Dillon Gabriel (who has thrown for 3,275 yards with the precision of a surgeon), generates 448.5 yards per game – exactly 5.7 yards more than Penn State. In the multi-billion dollar business of college football, that’s the equivalent of finding a penny in your couch cushions.

But here’s where it gets interesting. Let’s break it down:

Team Comparison: Penn State vs Oregon (2024 Season)

Overall Performance

Oregon has had a perfect season so far, boasting a 12-0 record, while Penn State has had an impressive 11-1 record. Both teams have shown strong performances throughout the season, earning their spots in the Big Ten Championship game.

Offensive Comparison

Passing Game:
- Oregon: 277.6 yards per game, 24 touchdowns, 6 interceptions
- Penn State: 248.2 yards per game, 24 touchdowns, 6 interceptions

Oregon has a slight edge in passing yards, but both teams have identical touchdown and interception numbers.

Rushing Game:
- Oregon: 170.9 yards per game, 27 touchdowns
- Penn State: 194.7 yards per game, 26 touchdowns

Penn State has a more productive rushing attack, averaging about 24 more yards per game than Oregon.

Total Offense:
- Oregon: 448.5 yards per game
- Penn State: 442.8 yards per game

Both teams have very similar total offensive production, with Oregon slightly ahead.

Defensive Comparison

Passing Defense:
- Oregon: 171.5 yards allowed per game, 10 interceptions
- Penn State: 169.8 yards allowed per game, 12 interceptions

Penn State has a marginally better pass defense and has forced more interceptions.

Rushing Defense:
- Oregon: 112.3 yards allowed per game
- Penn State: 97.0 yards allowed per game

Penn State’s rush defense is significantly stronger, allowing about 15 fewer yards per game.

Total Defense:
- Oregon: 283.8 yards allowed per game
- Penn State: 266.8 yards allowed per game

Penn State’s overall defense is more effective, allowing 17 fewer total yards per game.

Key Players

Oregon:

QB Dillon Gabriel: 3275 passing yards, 24 TDs, 6 INTs
RB Jordan James: 1166 rushing yards, 13 TDs
WR Tez Johnson: 685 receiving yards, 9 TDs

Penn State:

QB Drew Allar: 2668 passing yards, 18 TDs, 5 INTs
RB Nicholas Singleton: 733 rushing yards, 7 TDs
TE Tyler Warren: 978 receiving yards, 6 TDs

Special Teams

Both teams have solid kicking games, with Oregon slightly more accurate on field goals (78.9% vs 72.2% for Penn State).

Analysis

Penn State’s defensive coordinator has built something akin to a maximum-security prison for opposing offenses. They allow just 97 yards rushing per game – the number that makes old-school Big Ten coaches misty-eyed. It’s as if they’ve solved a mathematical equation that’s puzzled defensive minds for generations: how to stop the run and the pass without sacrificing.

The Nittany Lions’ Drew Allar, with his 2,668 passing yards, isn’t going to win any statistical beauty contests against Gabriel. However, in Tyler Warren, his tight end with 978 receiving yards, he’s found something even more valuable in modern football: reliability. Warren has become to Penn State what a good hedge fund is to a nervous investor – a safe harbor in turbulent times.

Oregon’s Jordan James, meanwhile, has turned running the football into a kind of performance art, accumulating 1,166 yards with the kind of efficiency that would make a German engineer proud. Every time he touches the ball, the advanced analytics computers at Oregon (and there are many) calculate a thousand possible outcomes. Most of them end with James in the end zone.

The kicking game is like comparing two slightly different shades of beige. Oregon converts 78.9% of its field goals, and Penn State 72.2%. Those percentage points might as well be gold dust in a game this evenly matched.

What we have here is more than a football game. It’s a clash of philosophical approaches to the same problem: how to move an oddly shaped ball across 100 yards of artificial turf. Oregon has perfected the art of offensive efficiency, turning each drive into a masterclass in modern football theory. Penn State has instead chosen to perfect the art of denial, turning its defense into a kind of mathematical proof that yards can be subtracted.

The result should be something akin to watching quantum physics play out on a football field – a perfect offense meeting an immovable defense with millions of dollars and countless dreams hanging in the balance.

Ultimately, this game will likely be decided not by the statistical margins that separate these teams – margins so thin you could slide them under a door – but by something far more primitive: which team can impose their will on the other. It’s the kind of story that makes college football the multi-billion-dollar theatre it is.

The Mathematics of Momentum: Game Prediction

If you spend enough time around Las Vegas bookmakers – those modern-day oracles who’ve turned point spreads into a science more precise than meteorology – you’ll learn that football games are just elaborate probability problems dressed up in school colors and fight songs. The Oregon-Penn State matchup presents the mathematical puzzle that keeps professional gamblers up at night.

Let’s break this down the way a Wall Street quant might approach their morning trading strategy:

Oregon’s offense, averaging 35.2 points per game, operates with the statistical consistency that would make a Six Sigma black belt weep with joy. The number feels almost artificially precise like it was generated by the same algorithms that power high-frequency trading.

Penn State’s defense, meanwhile, has turned opposing offenses into case studies in futility, holding teams to yardage totals that look more like batting averages. Their 266.8 yards allowed per game is the number that defensive coordinators frame and hang on their office walls.

But here’s where it gets interesting: Oregon’s Dillon Gabriel has been trading at a premium in the college football talent market. His 3,275 passing yards represent a 22.7% premium over Penn State’s Drew Allar – the kind of spread that would trigger arbitrage opportunities in any other market.

The turnover margins (+0.4 vs +0.6) are so close they’re practically a rounding error in the grand scheme. It’s like comparing the performance of two index funds that track slightly different versions of the same market.

When you feed all these numbers into the kind of predictive models that football analytics departments spend millions developing, you get something that looks less like a definitive answer and more like a probability distribution. But if you push me to put a number on it – the way a hedge fund manager eventually has to decide whether to buy or sell – I’ll say this:

Penn State 31, Oregon 24.

Red Zone – key to the game From B10 & Beyond @B10Beyond on X

“Found the Oregon weakness. Been rummaging through stats last couple of days when I can. Penn State is ranked 20th in Red Zone Defense. Fair. Oregon is ranked 73rd in Red Zone Defense. Not very good. If you can get down there, there’s a REALLY good chance you are scoring.“

It’s the kind of prediction that makes you understand why gambling is a multi-billion-dollar industry. Because in the end, we’re all just trying to put numbers on the unknowable, to quantify the human element that makes sports so captivating in the first place.

Make sure to catch the complete breakdown of all Conference Championship Games on the Targeting Winners podcast dropping Friday Afternoon on Spotify, Apple, or wherever you get your podcasts.

Got any thoughts on this game or preview? Let us know here.

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The Numbers That Don’t Add Up – Mountain West Championship Preview

Mark Haines on December 4, 2024

Boise State and UNLV meet Friday night for the Mountain West Championship.

In the pristine December air of Las Vegas, two college football programs are about to collide in a way that defies conventional wisdom. One is Boise State, the upstart powerhouse that has been terrorizing the Mountain West Conference for years by systematically destroying opponents. The other is UNLV, a program that was a statistical asterisk just two years ago. It is the kind of team that makes gamblers rich by betting against them.

The transformation of UNLV under Barry Odom is the kind of story that makes sports executives nervous. It suggests that all their complex formulas for success – the million-dollar facilities, the decades of tradition, the elaborate recruiting networks – might matter less than finding the right person with the right idea at the right time. Odom, a defensive specialist with a track record of raising football programs from the dead, has turned UNLV into something that would have been unthinkable 24 months ago: a legitimate threat to Boise State’s dominance.

The numbers tell a story that feels almost too neat to be true. Boise State, led by their own coaching prodigy Spencer Danielson, has been a machine of efficiency: 478.3 yards per game, 40.6 points scored, and a running back named Ashton Jeanty who seems to have been engineered in a laboratory specifically to break tackles (2,288 rushing yards, 28 touchdowns, and the kind of statistics that make NFL scouts reach for their phones). Their quarterback, Maddux Madsen, plays with the kind of careful precision (21 touchdowns, 3 interceptions) that makes offensive coordinators sleep well at night.

But here’s where it gets interesting: UNLV, the traditional underdog, has built something suspiciously similar. Their offense, anchored by the dual-threat quarterback Hajj-Malik Williams, puts up 434 yards and 38.7 points per game. It’s less than Boise State, but not by the margin you’d expect from a program that was recently college football’s equivalent of a penny stock.

The real story, though, lies in a number that doesn’t show up in the standard statistics: 22 versus 14. That’s the turnover differential between these teams, with UNLV’s defense showing a predatory instinct for creating chaos that their more established opponents haven’t matched. It’s the kind of number that makes you wonder if there’s something more interesting happening here than just a good football team playing another good football team.

When these teams met earlier this season, Boise State won 29-24, the close score that tells you everything and nothing about what might happen in a rematch. It’s the type of game that Las Vegas oddsmakers hate – when the traditional metrics suggest one outcome, but the intangibles point to another.

The wild card in this is special teams, UNLV’s secret weapon. Their kicker, Caden Chittenden, has been converting field goals at an 80.6% clip, the kind of reliability that wins championships. And then there’s Jai’Den Thomas, who has turned kick returns into a form of performance art, including one touchdown that made highlight reels across the country.

As the sun sets over Las Vegas on December 6th, these two teams will take the field for a game that feels less like a conference championship and more like a referendum on how football programs are built. On one side, you have Boise State, with its decade of dominance and its assembly-line production of victories. On the other side is UNLV, the rapid risers who have turned chaos into a competitive advantage.

The beauty of this matchup lies in its unpredictability. It’s the kind of game that makes you question everything you think you know about college football – about tradition, momentum, and the way success is supposed to look. And maybe that’s exactly what makes it worth watching.

Let’s Break It Down – Season Overview

Boise State has had a remarkable season, losing only to Oregon in a close 37-34 contest early in the year. The Broncos have since reeled off 10 straight victories, including a 29-24 win over UNLV in their regular-season meeting. UNLV, under second-year head coach Barry Odom, has engineered a dramatic turnaround, with their only losses coming against Syracuse and Boise State.

Offensive Firepower

Both teams bring potent offenses to the championship game:

Boise State

Averaging 478.3 yards and 40.6 points per game
Balanced attack with 224.8 passing yards and 253.5 rushing yards per game
QB Maddux Madsen: 2556 passing yards, 21 TDs, 3 INTs
RB Ashton Jeanty: 2288 rushing yards, 28 TDs, 102 receiving yards, 1 receiving TD

UNLV

Averaging 434 yards and 38.7 points per game
Run-heavy offense with 254.1 rushing yards per game
QB Hajj-Malik Williams: 1735 passing yards, 17 TDs, 4 INTs, 768 rushing yards, 9 rushing TDs
RB Jai’Den Thomas: 832 rushing yards, 7 TDs, 85 receiving yards, 1 receiving TD

Defensive Battle

While both teams are known for their offensive prowess, their defenses have also played crucial roles in their success:

Boise State allows 364.8 total yards per game
UNLV gives up 349.3 total yards per game
The Rebels have been more opportunistic, forcing 22 turnovers compared to the Broncos’ 14

Special Teams Edge

UNLV holds a slight advantage in special teams:

Kicker Caden Chittenden: 25/31 FGs (80.6%), 51/52 PATs (98.1%)
Punt returner Jacob De Jesus: 20 returns, 163 yards, 8.2 avg
Kick returner Jai’Den Thomas: 3 returns, 124 yards, 1 TD

Coaching Matchup

This game features an intriguing coaching battle between Boise State’s Spencer Danielson and UNLV’s Barry Odom:

Danielson (2nd year): 14-2 overall record, faith-based approach, emphasizes player development
Odom (2nd year at UNLV): 19-7 record at UNLV, defensive expertise, known for quick program turnarounds

Key Factors

Boise State’s rushing attack vs. UNLV’s run defense
UNLV’s ability to force turnovers against a typically careful Boise State offense
Special teams play, particularly in the return game
Quarterback play under pressure in a high-stakes environment

Prediction – The Math of Inevitability

Suppose you were building a model to predict this game’s outcome. In that case, you’d probably focus on the obvious: Boise State’s superior yardage, their higher scoring average, and their previous victory over UNLV. You’d be doing exactly what most analysts do – and missing the point entirely.

The hidden pattern here lies in the convergence of three numbers that nobody’s talking about: UNLV’s +8 turnover margin advantage, their 80.6% field goal conversion rate, and the 5-point margin of their previous loss to Boise State. When you map these data points against similar conference championship games over the past decade, an interesting pattern emerges – teams with superior turnover margins and reliable kicking games tend to outperform their regular season results in championship settings.

The Las Vegas factor is another variable that spreadsheets can’t capture. UNLV isn’t just playing at home; they’re playing in a city that’s redefined itself more times than any other in America. Vegas’s team should do the same.

The smart money says Boise State by a touchdown. The numbers that don’t make the headlines suggest something else: UNLV 31, Boise State 27.

It’s the kind of prediction that makes traditional analysts uncomfortable – which is precisely why it might be right.

What’s your take on this game? Let us know here

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