Blog Article
Colorado State 2025 Football Season Preview: Jay Norvell’s Critical Fourth Year
Jay Norvell’s fourth season at Colorado State might be his most important yet.
With an 8-5 record and bowl appearance providing foundation credibility, the head coach faces meaningful pressure to demonstrate that three years of steady building can translate into Mountain West championship contention. His hot seat rating of .987 indicates he’s meeting expectations and not on the hot seat, but 2025 will test whether the program can finally break through to elite conference status.
The stakes couldn’t be higher as Colorado State prepares for its final Mountain West season before joining the Pac-12 in 2026.
The Three-Year Evolution: From Rebuilding to Contending
The trajectory of Norvell’s tenure tells a compelling story of program transformation.
His debut 2022 season was brutal but necessary. Going 3-9 while starting three different quarterbacks (all freshmen or redshirt freshmen) and facing a schedule that included a College Football Playoff semifinalist, Michigan, would have broken lesser coaches. Instead, Norvell’s team showed unmistakable improvement, jumping from 247.3 yards of offense in the first half to 324.1 in the second half.
2023 brought heartbreak disguised as progress:
- A program-first victory over Boise State after a last-second Hail Mary
- CSU scoring 21 points in the final 4:02 to stun the Broncos
- Three losses after leading or tied with less than a minute remaining
- Missing bowl eligibility by the narrowest of margins
Then came 2024’s breakthrough: 8-5 overall, 6-1 in Mountain West play, and a return to bowl games for the first time since 2017.
The Arizona Bowl loss to Miami (OH) stung, but the foundation was undeniably in place.
Coaching Performance Under the Microscope
Norvell’s coaching staff deserves significant credit for maximizing available talent while building sustainable infrastructure.
The 2024 statistical profile reveals a program operating within historical Colorado State norms across most categories. The offense averaged 24.4 points and 387.6 yards per game, while the defense yielded 25.8 points per game. More importantly, the efficiency splits told the real story of coaching effectiveness.
In wins, Colorado State dominated through identity:
- 32.7 points per game
- 191.6 rushing yards per game
- Positive turnover margin (+0.8)
- Balanced offensive attack
In losses, the coaching challenges became apparent:
- Just 12.2 points per game
- 130.6 rushing yards per game
- Negative turnover margin (-1.4)
- Over-reliance on passing out of necessity
The 6-1 Mountain West record, including victories over Wyoming, Air Force, and Nevada, proved the coaching staff could prepare teams for conference competition.
But game management issues persisted throughout the season.
The Recruiting Revolution That Changed Everything
One area where Norvell’s coaching excellence shines brightest is recruiting and roster construction.
His recruiting philosophy centers on establishing CSU as “WRU” through his prolific air-raid offense. This approach has yielded remarkable results, with talented wide receivers choosing Colorado State over Power 5 programs. The 2024 recruiting class was ranked first in the Mountain West by 247Sports and fifth overall among Group of Five programs.
The transfer portal strategy has been equally masterful:
- Brought quarterback Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi from Nevada
- Added running back Avery Morrow, who rushed for 1,006 yards in 2024
- Secured multiple defensive contributors
- Created immediate competitive impact
However, recent portal losses highlight the double-edged nature of modern roster management.
CSU lost linebacker Chase Wilson to West Virginia, edge rusher Gabe Kirschke to Wake Forest, and top receivers Jamari Person and Caleb Goodie. The coaching staff’s ability to develop replacements will significantly impact the success of 2025.
Strategic Adjustments for the Championship Push
Norvell has made decisive moves to address the most glaring weaknesses of the 2024 season.
The biggest change comes on defense, where Norvell announced the departure of defensive coordinator Freddie Banks. Linebacker coach Adam Pilapil will serve as defensive play caller, representing both opportunity and risk. With nine of eleven defensive starters either graduating or transferring, this unit requires complete reconstruction.
Offensive continuity provides stability:
- Quarterback Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi returns for his junior season
- Running backs Justin Marshall and Keegan Holles take over the backfield
- Multiple proven receivers remain despite key departures
- Offensive line depth has been strengthened through recruiting
Staff promotions signal continued offensive innovation:
- Matt Mumme elevated to Pass-Game Coordinator
- Bill Best promoted to Run-Game Coordinator
- Chase Holbrook promoted to Quarterbacks Coach
- Mike Goff added as assistant offensive line coach
These moves suggest that Norvell understands the formula that works, while also addressing areas that need improvement.
The 2025 Schedule: Opportunity Meets Challenge
The upcoming schedule presents both validation opportunities and significant obstacles.
The season opener at Washington immediately measures progress against Pac-12 competition. This game could set the tone for the entire campaign, providing early indication of whether Colorado State can compete at its future conference level.
Key Mountain West home games offer momentum-building chances:
- Washington State visits Fort Collins
- Fresno State comes to town
- Air Force provides rivalry intensity
- Hawaii offers winnable conference points
Road challenges will likely determine championship aspirations:
- San Diego State has traditionally been problematic
- Boise State remains the conference’s gold standard
- Wyoming provides Border War intensity
Norvell’s coaching staff must prove they can execute consistently away from Fort Collins, where the 2024 team struggled at 2-4 in road and neutral games.
The Three Critical Areas Demanding Improvement
Improving the pass defense isn’t optional for championship contention.
Allowing 234.7 passing yards per game in 2024 represented a fatal flaw against quality opponents. The coaching staff’s ability to develop young defensive backs and implement effective schemes against spread offenses will directly determine conference title hopes. Transfer additions aim to provide immediate help, but development of existing talent remains crucial.
Game management and discipline require immediate attention:
- 6.5 penalties per game cost valuable field position
- Negative turnover margin (-0.1) decided close games
- Penalty issues spiked to 8.6 per game in losses
Situational coaching needs refinement across multiple areas:
- 63% red zone touchdown rate fell below FBS average
- Short-yardage conversion rate was inconsistent
- Late-game execution failed in crucial moments
The coaching staff has implemented penalty tracking systems and leadership workshops specifically designed to address these concerns.
Historical Context and Championship Expectations
Norvell’s overall FBS record of 49-47 (.510) includes a 16-21 (.432) mark through his first three Colorado State seasons (3-9 in 2022, 5-7 in 2023, 8-5 in 2024).
But his Nevada tenure provides the blueprint for sustained success. From 2017-2021, Norvell went 33-26 with the Wolf Pack, making four bowl games and posting winning records in his final four seasons. He developed two-time Mountain West Offensive Player of the Year Carson Strong and proved he could build consistent conference contenders.
The 2024 statistical performance aligned with historical Colorado State averages, indicating that the program has returned to its baseline competitiveness. However, Norvell’s mandate involves exceeding historical norms, not merely matching them.
Championship expectations are now realistic rather than aspirational.
The Bottom Line: Everything Points to a Breakthrough Season
Jay Norvell enters 2025 with every tool necessary for championship contention.
The coaching foundation has been meticulously constructed through three seasons of strategic building. Offensive continuity provides stability, while defensive changes offer upside potential. Recruiting momentum continues to build toward the Pac-12 transition, and schedule opportunities exist for significant wins.
Success requires the coaching staff to prove several critical capabilities:
- Developing young defensive talent quickly
- Maintaining offensive efficiency despite receiver departures
- Implementing defensive improvements that address glaring weaknesses
- Managing games better in crucial moments
The groundwork has been laid through patient, intelligent program building.
Now comes the ultimate test of whether that foundation can support championship-level performance when everything is on the line.