Blog Article

Michigan Is 6-4 And Barely Functional. Michigan State Scores 13 Points Per Game And Can’t Stop Anyone. Here’s Why Saturday’s Rivalry Game Will Be A Clinical 30-13 Win For The Wolverines (And Why Neither Fanbase Should Celebrate)

Mark Haines on October 23, 2025

There’s a moment in every rivalry when one team stops playing to win—and starts playing not to lose.

This is not a game between two good teams. This is a game between a disappointing Michigan squad that’s learned to stop embarrassing itself, and a Michigan State program that can’t stop the bleeding. The Wolverines aren’t elite. They’re just competent enough to handle a disaster.

Michigan Isn’t Good—They’re Just Less Bad Than Before

Control is not aggression.

For Michigan, it’s survival. After Oklahoma exposed them and USC humiliated them, Sherrone Moore’s program didn’t transform into something great. They transformed into something functional. They stopped trying to be what they’re not and started grinding out wins against inferior competition.

Justice Haynes runs hard because that’s all this offense can do.

7.4 yards per carry sounds impressive until you realize Michigan hasn’t played a defense worth a damn since Week 4. They’re averaging 188 rushing yards per game because they’ve played Maryland, Washington, and Illinois—not exactly murderers’ row. This isn’t a dominant rushing attack. It’s a mediocre offense that figured out how to pick on bad defenses.

Michigan fans aren’t celebrating this version of the team—they’re tolerating it.

Moore inherited a national championship roster and turned it into a 6-4 team that wins ugly. The offensive line is solid. The running back is good. Everything else? Pedestrian at best. This isn’t the program that won it all last year. This is the program desperately trying not to become irrelevant.

Michigan State Is a Complete Disaster

When you press for meaning, you lose it.

Michigan State isn’t just bad—they’re historically terrible. Four straight losses. 13 points per game in their last four conference games. 39.8 points allowed on average. Three straight second halves where they looked like they forgot football was a real sport.

Jonathan Smith’s second season in East Lansing has been a step backward.

The offense can’t score. The defense can’t stop anyone. The special teams are a liability. Smith’s rebuilds take time—his track record at Oregon State proves that—but right now, the Mel Tucker mess he inherited looks worse, not better.

Look at their play-calling. They abandon what works because nothing works. They force throws because they’re desperate. They substitute constantly because no combination of players makes a difference.

This is a program in free fall with no parachute.

The Actual Matchup: Mediocre vs Terrible

Football isn’t about momentum.

It’s about who can execute basic tasks without falling apart. Michigan can run the ball against bad defenses. Michigan State can’t stop anyone from running the ball. This isn’t strategy—it’s arithmetic.

Haynes will get his yards because Michigan State’s front seven is Swiss cheese. Michigan’s defense will suffocate an offense that couldn’t score on a JV squad. The Wolverines will win this game doing exactly what they’ve done for six weeks: run the ball, kill the clock, and wait for the other team to collapse.

That’s not dominance—that’s taking advantage of incompetence.

The third quarter will tell the story, like it always does. Michigan will come out running the same plays they’ve run all game. Michigan State’s defense will be tired, frustrated, and making mistakes. Haynes will break a couple of runs, Michigan will extend the lead, and the Spartans will quit.

Not because Michigan is great—because Michigan State is that bad.

This Rivalry Has Become One-Sided

Most people think rivalries equalize teams.

That’s a myth. Rivalries amplify the gap between programs going in opposite directions. Michigan is trending toward mediocrity. Michigan State is trending toward irrelevance.

When Haynes rips off his third big run, watch the Spartan sideline. Players will stop fighting. Coaches will stop believing. That’s when you know a program has lost its soul—when even rivalry week can’t manufacture a fight.

Michigan State came into this season hoping Jonathan Smith’s rebuild would show signs of life in year two. Instead, they’ve regressed. Smith’s track record suggests he can fix this—he turned Oregon State from laughingstock to contender—but rebuilding the Mel Tucker disaster takes time. Meanwhile, Michigan fans are wondering if Sherrone Moore is the guy to lead them back to relevance—or just another mediocre coach riding the fumes of Jim Harbaugh’s success.

The Real Story

It’s about two programs trying to figure out who they are.

Michigan isn’t elite anymore. They’re not even good. They’re just functional enough to beat bad teams and avoid total embarrassment. Moore has stabilized the program after a rough start, but stabilization isn’t excellence.

Michigan State, meanwhile, has no idea what they are—except terrible.

One team figured out how to stop the bleeding. The other can’t find the tourniquet. That’s not a rivalry game—that’s a mercy killing.

The Takeaway

Saturday won’t be close—it will be clinical.

Michigan 30, Michigan State 13. But don’t mistake clinical for impressive. Michigan will win because they’re playing a team that can’t score, can’t stop the run, and can’t manufacture any reason to believe things will get better.

This isn’t a statement win for Michigan—it’s a layup.

For Michigan State, it’s another reminder that this season can’t end fast enough. For Michigan fans, it’s another reminder that competent isn’t the same as contending.

And for the rest of college football? It’s a reminder that rivalry games only matter when both teams show up.

Saturday, only one team will bother.

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Blog Article

Michigan State Football: The Road Ahead in 2025

Mark Haines on May 16, 2025

If there’s one word to describe Michigan State football heading into the 2025 season, it’s “potential.”

Jonathan Smith’s second season at the helm brings Spartan faithful to a crossroads of hope and skepticism. After a 5-7 campaign in 2024 that showed flashes of promise but ultimately extended the program’s bowl drought to three consecutive seasons, Michigan State enters 2025 armed with a dramatically retooled roster and heightened expectations.

The million-dollar question hanging over East Lansing: Can Smith accelerate this rebuild and return the Spartans to Big Ten relevance faster than the experts predict?

Building Around Chiles

Aidan Chiles is the engine that will power Michigan State’s 2025 season.

The Oregon State transfer’s first year in East Lansing was a rollercoaster – 2,415 passing yards, 13 touchdowns, and 11 interceptions while completing 59% of his passes. But raw numbers only tell part of the story. The stats don’t show the jaw-dropping throws, the escapes from collapsing pockets, and the flashes of NFL-caliber talent that had Spartan fans salivating about the future.

“I want the wins,” Chiles told reporters this spring. “But I want to learn how to get those wins. We’ve got to do the right things.”

This isn’t just “coachespeak”; it’s the mindset of a quarterback who experienced both the highs of a 3-0 start and the lows of blowout losses to conference powers in 2024. His December social media announcement recommitting to MSU for 2025 stabilized the program’s most important position at a time when QB transfer rumors swirl across college football daily.

For Michigan State to exceed expectations this fall, Chiles must make these three specific improvements:

Red zone decision-making: Converting yards into points was a glaring weakness, as MSU ranked 127th nationally in red zone efficiency
Third-down execution: The Spartans converted just 40.3% of third downs, keeping the defense on the field too long
Ball security: Those 11 interceptions must decrease, especially in a schedule featuring multiple top-25 defenses

The quarterback room also added talented freshman Leo Hannan from Servite High School in California. A 6-foot-4, 210-pound prospect with a cannon arm, Hannan will develop behind Chiles rather than compete for the starting role immediately.

Portal-Powered Improvement

Jonathan Smith has completely transformed Michigan State’s roster through the transfer portal.

The numbers tell the story: 16 transfers during the winter window alone, with more potentially coming during the spring period. This matches Smith’s stated philosophy about the modern college football landscape.

“I think philosophically, just where the landscape continues to go, it’s probably going to be closer to this 50-50 mark,” Smith explained during his Early Signing Day press conference.

This portal strategy has delivered massive upgrades at virtually every offensive position:

Running back: Elijah Tau-Tolliver (Sacramento State) brings 1,267 all-purpose yards and 9 TDs from 2024
Wide receiver: Three impact transfers headlined by Omari Kelly (Middle Tennessee State), who earned All-Conference USA first-team honors with 53 receptions for 869 yards
Offensive line: Multiple additions, including Conner Moore (Montana State), an FCS All-American who should immediately improve a unit that surrendered 19 sacks last season

When paired with breakout sophomore receiver Nick Marsh (649 yards as a freshman), Chiles now has legitimate weapons at every field level – something distinctly lacking during the 2024 campaign.

Defensive Retooling

Michigan State’s defense needed a complete overhaul, and Smith delivered through the portal.

The most glaring weakness in 2024 was the anemic pass rush, which generated just 19 sacks, among the lowest totals in the Big Ten and a key reason opponents converted 40.3% of third downs. To address this fatal flaw, Smith targeted these specific reinforcements:

Edge rushers: David Santiago (Air Force) and Anelu Lafaele (Wisconsin) bring athleticism, if not Power Five starting experience
Secondary: NiJhay Burt (Eastern Illinois), Malcolm Bell (UConn), and Joshua Eaton (Texas State) add much-needed depth and experience
Linebacker: Aisea Moa (BYU) provides athleticism to a unit that struggled in space last season

The defensive wild card is safety Malik Spencer, who one NFL insider suggested could play himself into first-round draft consideration with a strong junior season. Spencer’s 72 tackles and 6 pass breakups in 2024 only hint at his potential as the defense’s centerpiece.

If these portal additions can raise the defensive floor from “liability” to even “average,” Michigan State’s win total could exceed Vegas’s conservative 4.5-game projection.

Schedule Challenges

Michigan State’s 2025 schedule is absolutely brutal.

After a manageable non-conference slate featuring Western Michigan, Boston College, and Youngstown State, the Big Ten gauntlet looks like something designed by a sadistic schedule-maker with a vendetta against East Lansing.

Consider this murderer’s row:

Road trips: USC, Nebraska, Indiana, Minnesota, and Iowa – all teams projected to be bowl-eligible or better
Home games: Penn State, Michigan, and UCLA – offering little respite between road challenges
Neutral site: Maryland at Detroit’s Ford Field – potentially the most “winnable” conference game

With five likely preseason Top 25 teams on the docket, even significant improvement might not translate directly to a dramatically better record. This is where context matters – competitive losses against elite teams would represent meaningful progress compared to 2024’s blowouts.

The season opener against Western Michigan becomes crucial for building momentum and confidence before the Big Ten buzzsaw arrives.

Roster Development

Michigan State’s recruiting strategy reflects Smith’s methodical, long-term approach to program building.

The 2025 high school class, ranked 45th nationally according to 247Sports, isn’t going to wow national analysts. But look closer and you’ll see a clear identity emerging – tough, developmental prospects who fit specific schemes rather than star rankings.

Four-star defensive tackle Derrick Simmons from Frankenmuth, Michigan, headlines the group, while the class includes these potential diamonds in the rough:

Leo Hannan (QB): Big arm talent with surprisingly good mobility for his 6’4″ frame
Aydan West (CB): Ball-hawking cornerback who was pursued heavily by Ohio State late in the cycle
Zion Gist (RB): Powerful runner with a north-south style that fits perfectly in Smith’s offense

However, the real X-factor for 2025 is the potential emergence of second-year players from the 2024 recruiting class. Wide receiver Nick Marsh has already proven himself. Still, linebacker Jordan Hall (24 tackles in 2024) could be the breakout star after being converted to a hybrid edge role to help address the pass rush deficiencies.

Program Trajectory

Jonathan Smith is building Michigan State football like he rebuilt Oregon State.

This matters enormously when projecting the program’s trajectory. Smith methodically transformed Oregon State from Pac-12 doormat to 10-win contender through these specific strategies:

Process-oriented approach: Focusing on daily improvement rather than short-term results
Staff consistency: Building coaching continuity rather than constantly changing systems
Player development: Turning 3-star recruits into All-Conference performers
Portal maximization: Using transfers strategically to address immediate roster holes

His first year in East Lansing offered glimpses of this blueprint, and Smith has generated surprising goodwill among fans, boosters, and administrators who recognize the difficult situation he inherited. While patience isn’t infinite in college football, there’s genuine understanding that rebuilding requires time.

Financial commitment remains strong, with key donors like Mat Ishbia (who contributed $20 million to the $68 million football facility renovation) continuing to back Smith’s vision. These investments signal the university’s long-term commitment despite recent struggles.

Keys to Success in 2025

For Michigan State to shock the Big Ten and exceed expectations in 2025, these five specific factors must align:

Red Zone Efficiency: Converting drives into touchdowns instead of field goals or turnovers (MSU scored just 1.1 offensive TDs/game in 2024 despite averaging 5.4 yards/play)
Pass Rush Development: Increasing sack production from 19 to 30+ would transform the defense’s effectiveness, especially on third downs.
Disciplined Play: Penalties (6.7 per game at 63.3 yards) killed countless drives in 2024, though spring reports show improvement toward the 4.2 penalties/game target
Offensive Line Cohesion: With NFL prospect Luke Newman anchoring a unit returning four starters plus key portal additions, the trenches could become a strength
Turnover Creation: The defense generated 9 interceptions in 2024 but just 4 forced fumbles – doubling that latter number would dramatically improve field position

If these five areas show meaningful improvement, Michigan State could be surprised at a conference where many teams are also transitioning.

Outlook and Expectations

Here’s the brutal truth about Michigan State football in 2025: Vegas oddsmakers have set the win total at just 4.5.

This conservative projection acknowledges the program’s rebuilding status and murderous schedule. But here’s where betting markets and football reality diverge – Smith establishes a foundation for sustainable success far beyond the 2025 record.

The current situation requires patience for a fanbase accustomed to Dantonio’s glory days, three Big Ten championships, and a College Football Playoff appearance. Yet there’s growing recognition that Smith’s methodical approach mirrors many of the attributes that made Dantonio successful in the first place.

The real question isn’t whether Michigan State will win six games in 2025. It’s whether Michigan State will become a program that consistently wins 8-10 games by 2026 and beyond.

One thing is certain: with Chiles at quarterback and a dramatically upgraded supporting cast, Spartan football will be significantly more entertaining and competitive than recent memory – even if bowl eligibility remains an ambitious target for this particular season.

The foundation is being poured. Now it’s time to see if the structure rises faster than expected.

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