Blog Article
Michigan State Football: The Road Ahead in 2025
If there’s one word to describe Michigan State football heading into the 2025 season, it’s “potential.”
Jonathan Smith’s second season at the helm brings Spartan faithful to a crossroads of hope and skepticism. After a 5-7 campaign in 2024 that showed flashes of promise but ultimately extended the program’s bowl drought to three consecutive seasons, Michigan State enters 2025 armed with a dramatically retooled roster and heightened expectations.
The million-dollar question hanging over East Lansing: Can Smith accelerate this rebuild and return the Spartans to Big Ten relevance faster than the experts predict?
Building Around Chiles
Aidan Chiles is the engine that will power Michigan State’s 2025 season.
The Oregon State transfer’s first year in East Lansing was a rollercoaster – 2,415 passing yards, 13 touchdowns, and 11 interceptions while completing 59% of his passes. But raw numbers only tell part of the story. The stats don’t show the jaw-dropping throws, the escapes from collapsing pockets, and the flashes of NFL-caliber talent that had Spartan fans salivating about the future.
“I want the wins,” Chiles told reporters this spring. “But I want to learn how to get those wins. We’ve got to do the right things.”
This isn’t just “coachespeak”; it’s the mindset of a quarterback who experienced both the highs of a 3-0 start and the lows of blowout losses to conference powers in 2024. His December social media announcement recommitting to MSU for 2025 stabilized the program’s most important position at a time when QB transfer rumors swirl across college football daily.
For Michigan State to exceed expectations this fall, Chiles must make these three specific improvements:
- Red zone decision-making: Converting yards into points was a glaring weakness, as MSU ranked 127th nationally in red zone efficiency
- Third-down execution: The Spartans converted just 40.3% of third downs, keeping the defense on the field too long
- Ball security: Those 11 interceptions must decrease, especially in a schedule featuring multiple top-25 defenses
The quarterback room also added talented freshman Leo Hannan from Servite High School in California. A 6-foot-4, 210-pound prospect with a cannon arm, Hannan will develop behind Chiles rather than compete for the starting role immediately.
Portal-Powered Improvement
Jonathan Smith has completely transformed Michigan State’s roster through the transfer portal.
The numbers tell the story: 16 transfers during the winter window alone, with more potentially coming during the spring period. This matches Smith’s stated philosophy about the modern college football landscape.
“I think philosophically, just where the landscape continues to go, it’s probably going to be closer to this 50-50 mark,” Smith explained during his Early Signing Day press conference.
This portal strategy has delivered massive upgrades at virtually every offensive position:
- Running back: Elijah Tau-Tolliver (Sacramento State) brings 1,267 all-purpose yards and 9 TDs from 2024
- Wide receiver: Three impact transfers headlined by Omari Kelly (Middle Tennessee State), who earned All-Conference USA first-team honors with 53 receptions for 869 yards
- Offensive line: Multiple additions, including Conner Moore (Montana State), an FCS All-American who should immediately improve a unit that surrendered 19 sacks last season
When paired with breakout sophomore receiver Nick Marsh (649 yards as a freshman), Chiles now has legitimate weapons at every field level – something distinctly lacking during the 2024 campaign.
Defensive Retooling
Michigan State’s defense needed a complete overhaul, and Smith delivered through the portal.
The most glaring weakness in 2024 was the anemic pass rush, which generated just 19 sacks, among the lowest totals in the Big Ten and a key reason opponents converted 40.3% of third downs. To address this fatal flaw, Smith targeted these specific reinforcements:
- Edge rushers: David Santiago (Air Force) and Anelu Lafaele (Wisconsin) bring athleticism, if not Power Five starting experience
- Secondary: NiJhay Burt (Eastern Illinois), Malcolm Bell (UConn), and Joshua Eaton (Texas State) add much-needed depth and experience
- Linebacker: Aisea Moa (BYU) provides athleticism to a unit that struggled in space last season
The defensive wild card is safety Malik Spencer, who one NFL insider suggested could play himself into first-round draft consideration with a strong junior season. Spencer’s 72 tackles and 6 pass breakups in 2024 only hint at his potential as the defense’s centerpiece.
If these portal additions can raise the defensive floor from “liability” to even “average,” Michigan State’s win total could exceed Vegas’s conservative 4.5-game projection.
Schedule Challenges
Michigan State’s 2025 schedule is absolutely brutal.
After a manageable non-conference slate featuring Western Michigan, Boston College, and Youngstown State, the Big Ten gauntlet looks like something designed by a sadistic schedule-maker with a vendetta against East Lansing.
Consider this murderer’s row:
- Road trips: USC, Nebraska, Indiana, Minnesota, and Iowa – all teams projected to be bowl-eligible or better
- Home games: Penn State, Michigan, and UCLA – offering little respite between road challenges
- Neutral site: Maryland at Detroit’s Ford Field – potentially the most “winnable” conference game
With five likely preseason Top 25 teams on the docket, even significant improvement might not translate directly to a dramatically better record. This is where context matters – competitive losses against elite teams would represent meaningful progress compared to 2024’s blowouts.
The season opener against Western Michigan becomes crucial for building momentum and confidence before the Big Ten buzzsaw arrives.
Roster Development
Michigan State’s recruiting strategy reflects Smith’s methodical, long-term approach to program building.
The 2025 high school class, ranked 45th nationally according to 247Sports, isn’t going to wow national analysts. But look closer and you’ll see a clear identity emerging – tough, developmental prospects who fit specific schemes rather than star rankings.
Four-star defensive tackle Derrick Simmons from Frankenmuth, Michigan, headlines the group, while the class includes these potential diamonds in the rough:
- Leo Hannan (QB): Big arm talent with surprisingly good mobility for his 6’4″ frame
- Aydan West (CB): Ball-hawking cornerback who was pursued heavily by Ohio State late in the cycle
- Zion Gist (RB): Powerful runner with a north-south style that fits perfectly in Smith’s offense
However, the real X-factor for 2025 is the potential emergence of second-year players from the 2024 recruiting class. Wide receiver Nick Marsh has already proven himself. Still, linebacker Jordan Hall (24 tackles in 2024) could be the breakout star after being converted to a hybrid edge role to help address the pass rush deficiencies.
Program Trajectory
Jonathan Smith is building Michigan State football like he rebuilt Oregon State.
This matters enormously when projecting the program’s trajectory. Smith methodically transformed Oregon State from Pac-12 doormat to 10-win contender through these specific strategies:
- Process-oriented approach: Focusing on daily improvement rather than short-term results
- Staff consistency: Building coaching continuity rather than constantly changing systems
- Player development: Turning 3-star recruits into All-Conference performers
- Portal maximization: Using transfers strategically to address immediate roster holes
His first year in East Lansing offered glimpses of this blueprint, and Smith has generated surprising goodwill among fans, boosters, and administrators who recognize the difficult situation he inherited. While patience isn’t infinite in college football, there’s genuine understanding that rebuilding requires time.
Financial commitment remains strong, with key donors like Mat Ishbia (who contributed $20 million to the $68 million football facility renovation) continuing to back Smith’s vision. These investments signal the university’s long-term commitment despite recent struggles.
Keys to Success in 2025
For Michigan State to shock the Big Ten and exceed expectations in 2025, these five specific factors must align:
- Red Zone Efficiency: Converting drives into touchdowns instead of field goals or turnovers (MSU scored just 1.1 offensive TDs/game in 2024 despite averaging 5.4 yards/play)
- Pass Rush Development: Increasing sack production from 19 to 30+ would transform the defense’s effectiveness, especially on third downs.
- Disciplined Play: Penalties (6.7 per game at 63.3 yards) killed countless drives in 2024, though spring reports show improvement toward the 4.2 penalties/game target
- Offensive Line Cohesion: With NFL prospect Luke Newman anchoring a unit returning four starters plus key portal additions, the trenches could become a strength
- Turnover Creation: The defense generated 9 interceptions in 2024 but just 4 forced fumbles – doubling that latter number would dramatically improve field position
If these five areas show meaningful improvement, Michigan State could be surprised at a conference where many teams are also transitioning.
Outlook and Expectations
Here’s the brutal truth about Michigan State football in 2025: Vegas oddsmakers have set the win total at just 4.5.
This conservative projection acknowledges the program’s rebuilding status and murderous schedule. But here’s where betting markets and football reality diverge – Smith establishes a foundation for sustainable success far beyond the 2025 record.
The current situation requires patience for a fanbase accustomed to Dantonio’s glory days, three Big Ten championships, and a College Football Playoff appearance. Yet there’s growing recognition that Smith’s methodical approach mirrors many of the attributes that made Dantonio successful in the first place.
The real question isn’t whether Michigan State will win six games in 2025. It’s whether Michigan State will become a program that consistently wins 8-10 games by 2026 and beyond.
One thing is certain: with Chiles at quarterback and a dramatically upgraded supporting cast, Spartan football will be significantly more entertaining and competitive than recent memory – even if bowl eligibility remains an ambitious target for this particular season.
The foundation is being poured. Now it’s time to see if the structure rises faster than expected.
The Next Billion Dollar Game
College football isn’t just a sport anymore—it’s a high-stakes market where information asymmetry separates winners from losers. While the average fan sees only what happens between the sidelines, real insiders trade on the hidden dynamics reshaping programs from the inside out.
Our team has embedded with the power brokers who run this game. From the coaching carousel to NIL deals to transfer portal strategies, we’ve mapped the entire ecosystem with the kind of obsessive detail that would make a hedge fund analyst blush.
Why subscribe? Because in markets this inefficient, information creates alpha. Our subscribers knew which coaches were dead men walking months before the mainstream media caught on. They understood which programs were quietly transforming their recruiting apparatuses while competitors slept.
The smart money is already positioning for 2025. Are you?
Click below—it’s free—and join the small group of people who understand the real value of college football’s new economy.