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California (4-2) Hosts North Carolina (2-3) Friday Night: A Brutally Honest Game Preview Of Two Bad Teams Fighting To Prove Who Sucks Less

Mark Haines on October 17, 2025

This is not a game between two good football teams.

Let’s just get that out of the way right now. California (4-2) hosts North Carolina (2-3) on Friday night in Berkeley, and if you’re expecting offensive fireworks or elite defensive play, you’re watching the wrong game. This is a battle between two deeply flawed teams trying to figure out who can avoid embarrassing themselves on national television.

But here’s the thing: it might be wildly entertaining for all the wrong reasons.

Cal Has Perfected The Art Of Creative Losing

If you’ve followed California football for more than five minutes, you know they’ve invented approximately 47 new ways to lose football games.

They are the masters of creative catastrophe.

Lost 0-34 to San Diego State (a team that went 3-9 last year)
Got shutout at home… by a Mountain West team
Scored 21 points against Duke and still lost by 24
Beat an FCS team and act like they’re playoff contenders

The Golden Bears are the team that will drive 90 yards down the field, get inside the 5-yard line, and then somehow throw three consecutive incompletions to settle for a field goal. Or miss it. They’ll probably miss it.

This is Cal football, baby.

Bill Belichick’s Offense Is A Dumpster Fire

Meanwhile, North Carolina hired the greatest coach in NFL history and somehow made their offense worse.

The Tar Heels are averaging 11 points per game against Power 5 opponents.

Let that sink in for a second. Eleven. That’s not a typo. That’s not adjusted for pace or advanced metrics. That’s just… pathetically bad football. Here’s what UNC has accomplished this season:

Scored 14 points against TCU (lost by 34)
Scored 9 points against UCF (yes, nine)
Scored 10 points against Clemson
Beat FCS Richmond and think they’re back

The Belichick Era in Chapel Hill has been one long, painful lesson in “NFL schemes don’t work in college when you have college players.” Their offense is so dysfunctional it makes Cal’s creative losing look competent by comparison.

And that’s saying something.

The Matchups Are Hilariously One-Sided

Let’s talk about what happens when these two teams play each other.

California’s mediocre offense versus North Carolina’s terrible defense:

Cal should score. Their freshman quarterback threw for 279 yards and three touchdowns against Minnesota. UNC’s defense allows 70.3% completions (one of the worst in FBS) and gives up 40 points per game to Power 5 teams. Even Cal’s inconsistent passing attack should move the ball.

The problem? Cal also got shut out by San Diego State, so who the hell knows?

North Carolina’s abysmal offense versus California’s decent defense:

This is where the game gets decided. UNC can’t score against anyone with a pulse. Cal’s defense ranks 32nd nationally in scoring defense and should absolutely dominate this matchup. The only question is whether UNC scores 7 or 10 points before the clock hits zero.

The special teams and coaching edges:

Cal has an All-America return specialist (advantage: Cal)
Cal had a bye week to prepare (advantage: Cal)
Cal plays at home at 10:30pm ET (advantage: Cal)
Bill Belichick has eight Super Bowl rings (advantage: doesn’t matter, his offense stinks)

Everything favors California except for one tiny detail: they’re California, and they specialize in losing games they should win.

Why Cal Should Win (But Might Not)

Here’s the rational, data-driven case for why California wins this game by two touchdowns.

The numbers don’t lie:

Home field advantage + late-night body clock game
UNC’s offense is historically bad (119th in scoring nationally)
Cal’s defense can shut down UNC’s dysfunction
UNC is 0-3 against Power 5 teams with a -29 point average margin
Cal had extra week to prepare and gameplan

If you run this game through a computer simulation 100 times, Cal probably wins 75 of them. They’re better at almost every position. Their quarterback is inconsistent but still better than whatever UNC is running out there. Their defense is competent. They’re playing at home.

They should cruise to a 24-10 victory.

Why Cal Could Still Lose (Because They’re Cal)

But then you remember: this is California football.

And California football is chaos incarnate.

The Golden Bears have a unique talent for finding new and inventive ways to lose games they should win. Maybe their freshman QB throws four interceptions. Maybe they fumble on their own 10-yard line three times. Maybe Bill Belichick conjures up some dark NFL sorcery that confuses everyone.

Here are the ways this goes sideways:

Cal’s offense reverts to “San Diego State shutout” mode
Freshman QB makes 2-3 catastrophic mistakes
Red zone failures turn TDs into field goals (or misses)
Belichick’s desperate game plan actually works for once
The universe decides Cal fans don’t deserve nice things

The probability? Maybe 25%.

But that 25% is real. Cal could absolutely blow this. They’ve blown easier games. They’re probably drawing up the blueprint for how to blow this one right now.

The Real Prediction

California 24, North Carolina 10

Cal’s defense holds UNC to one garbage-time touchdown and a field goal. Cal’s offense does just enough against UNC’s awful pass defense to score three touchdowns (probably). The home crowd gets loud. The body clock matters. Bill Belichick looks confused on the sideline, wondering why his NFL plays don’t work in college.

This is the most likely outcome.

But if you’re betting the house on this game, maybe reconsider. Because Cal is involved, and Cal specializes in making their fans suffer in new and creative ways. They could win 31-7. They could lose 20-23 on a last-second field goal after blowing a 17-point lead.

That’s the beauty and terror of California football.

What To Watch For

If you’re actually going to watch this Friday night disaster, here’s what matters:

First 10 minutes: Does Cal’s offense move the ball easily against UNC’s defense? If yes, this game is over.
UNC’s first red zone trip: Can they score a TD or do they settle for a FG? (Spoiler: they’ll probably fail entirely)
Cal’s turnover count: If the freshman QB throws 2+ picks, UNC has a chance
Third quarter adjustments: Does Belichick have anything creative? (Narrator: he does not)

The over/under will probably be around 44 points. Hammer the under. Both teams stink at scoring. Both teams will settle for field goals in the red zone. Both teams will punt 12 times.

This game hits 34 total points and everyone goes home disappointed.

The Bottom Line

California should win this game because North Carolina’s offense is one of the worst in college football.

That’s it. That’s the analysis.

UNC can’t score against decent defenses. Cal has a decent defense. Math says Cal wins. But Cal also has a proud tradition of defying math and finding spectacular new ways to lose, so bring popcorn and prepare for chaos.

Final prediction: Cal 24, UNC 10 (with 40% confidence that something weirder happens)

Welcome to Friday night Pac-12… wait, ACC… wait, who even knows anymore? This is college football in 2025, where nothing makes sense and the points don’t matter unless you’re betting the under.

Enjoy the trainwreck.

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Two Coaches, Two Seasons: How Cal vs San Diego State Became A Tale of Opposite Trajectories

Mark Haines on September 18, 2025

Cal coach Justin Wilcox started this season at #15 on our Coaches Hot Seat Rankings. This week, he sits at #41.

Cal supporters were calling for his firing. Eight years of mediocrity had worn thin on a fanbase that remembered the Jeff Tedford glory days. The move to the ACC felt like a desperate attempt to save a program—and a coach—that had lost its way.

Three games into the 2025 season, Wilcox isn’t just off the hot seat.

He’s got Cal positioned as a legitimate ACC championship contender.

The Numbers Don’t Lie

Let’s start with what actually matters: results.

2024 Cal: 6-7 record, including a bowl loss. Mediocre on both sides of the ball.

2025 Cal: 3-0 with statement wins, including a road victory at Oregon State and a home domination of Big Ten’s Minnesota.

But here’s where it gets interesting—the statistical transformation is unprecedented.

The Defensive Revolution:

Total Defense: 421.4 yards allowed (2024) → 280.0 yards allowed (2025)
That’s 141+ fewer yards per game—one of the most dramatic single-season improvements in college football
Rush Defense: 109.8 yards allowed → 82.3 yards allowed (-27.5 yards, -25.0%)
Pass Defense: 227.6 yards allowed → 197.7 yards allowed (-29.9 yards, -13.1%)

The Offensive Evolution:

Scoring: 23.2 ppg → 24.3 ppg
Total Offense: 380.1 yards → 387.7 yards
Passing: 258.6 yards → 269.0 yards (+10.4 yards)

This isn’t a marginal improvement. This is a systematic transformation.

The Schedule That Changes Everything

Here’s where Wilcox caught lightning in a bottle: Cal’s ACC scheduling rotation.

Teams Cal AVOIDS in 2025: Clemson, Miami, Florida State, Georgia Tech, NC State, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, Wake Forest.

Teams Cal PLAYS in ACC action:

@ Boston College
vs Duke (ACC home opener)
vs North Carolina (Bill Belichick’s debut season)
@ Virginia Tech
vs Virginia
@ Louisville (their toughest road test)
@ Stanford (Big Game rivalry)
vs SMU (potential title game preview)

Look at that list again.

Cal avoided every single ACC powerhouse except SMU—and they get the Mustangs at home in the regular season finale.

The Hot Seat Parallel That Should Terrify Sean Lewis

While Wilcox has engineered one of the most dramatic coaching turnarounds in recent memory, his Week 4 opponent represents the opposite trajectory.

Sean Lewis at San Diego State:

Started at #41 on our Hot Seat Rankings
Now sitting at #17 and climbing
His “AztecFAST” offense has somehow gotten WORSE in Year 2

The Numbers:

2024 SDSU: 19.5 points per game (terrible)
2025 SDSU: 15.5 points per game (historically bad)
Point Differential: -8.3 (2024) → -3.0 (2025)*

*Only improved because their defense got dramatically better while the offense cratered

The Fan Revolt: Season ticket sales down 33%. The program handed out 4,000 free tickets to get bodies in seats for Cal’s visit. Lewis is exhibiting all the warning signs of a coach about to be fired mid-season.

Saturday’s Matchup: Cal (24.3 ppg, elite defense) vs SDSU (15.5 ppg, historically bad offense)

This should be a statement win that propels Cal toward ACC title contention.

The Path to Charlotte

Here’s the reality that nobody wants to talk about: Cal has a legitimate path to the ACC Championship Game.

The New Format: No divisions. The two teams with the best ACC conference records play for the title.

Cal’s Realistic Projection:

Likely Wins (5 games): Boston College, Duke, Virginia Tech, Virginia, Stanford
Toss-ups (2 games): North Carolina (Belichick’s first year chaos), Louisville (road)
Statement Game (1 game): SMU at home in finale

Path to 7-1 in ACC play: Beat the teams you should beat, split the toss-ups, and upset SMU at home.

Path to 6-2 in ACC play: Same as above, but lose one of the “sure things.”

Either record likely gets Cal to Charlotte.

The Transformation Timeline

January 2025: Cal supporters want Wilcox fired
March 2025: Wilcox at #15 on Hot Seat Rankings
September 2025: Cal 3-0 with the most improved defense in college football
December 2025: Playing for an ACC Championship?

This is what great coaching looks like when everything clicks.

Wilcox didn’t just make cosmetic changes. He fundamentally transformed the identity of his program. The defense that was giving up 421+ yards per game in 2024 is now allowing just 280 yards in 2025—that’s the kind of year-over-year improvement that typically takes multiple recruiting cycles and scheme overhauls.

The Foster Parallel

Remember our piece on DeShaun Foster’s situation at UCLA? The parallels between Foster’s final days and Sean Lewis’s current predicament at San Diego State are striking:

Initial optimism followed by spectacular failure
Gimmicky offensive systems that don’t work
Fan revolts and administrative pressure
Players transferring out

But Wilcox represents the opposite trajectory.

Sometimes a coach on the hot seat doesn’t need to be fired—he needs to be challenged. The move to the ACC, the pressure from fans, the make-or-break moment seemed to unlock something in Wilcox that eight years at Cal hadn’t revealed.

The Bottom Line

Justin Wilcox started 2025 fighting for his job.

He might end it fighting for a conference championship.

The statistical improvements aren’t flukes. The schedule isn’t luck—it’s opportunity. The wins aren’t accidents—they’re the result of systematic program transformation.

Cal’s defense has improved by 141 yards per game. Their offense is more efficient. Their quarterback play is steady. Their coaching is sharp.

Most importantly, they avoid Clemson, Miami, and the ACC’s elite tier while getting most of their challenging games at home.

Prediction: Cal goes 6-2 or 7-1 in ACC play and plays for the conference championship.

Hot Seat Status: Wilcox isn’t just off our rankings—he’s building a program that could compete at the highest level for years to come.

Sometimes, the coach everyone wants fired is exactly the coach who needed the proper support and circumstances to succeed.

Justin Wilcox just found his.

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Cal Football 2025: A Program at the Crossroads

Mark Haines on February 21, 2025

Every college football program has a breaking point.

That point for the California Golden Bears, aka Cal Football, is a .490 winning percentage—what industry insiders call the “Minimum Acceptable” (MA) winning percentage. This proprietary metric, developed by Coaches Hot Seat (the authority on coaching job security), is a data-driven warning system. The countdown typically begins when a coach’s record falls below this threshold.

Justin Wilcox’s winning percentage currently sits at .457.

The Numbers Tell A Story (And It’s Not A Happy One)

Let’s look at Cal’s progression over the past three seasons:

Cal Football’s future depends on addressing these challenges and improving their overall performance.

2022: 4-8 overall (2-7 in conference)
2023: 6-7 overall (4-5 in conference)
2024: 6-7 overall (2-6 in conference)

This isn’t just a pattern—it’s a problem. Wilcox’s tenure has been defined by incremental improvements followed by stagnation. The trajectory suggests a program stuck in neutral rather than building towards sustained success.

The $15 Million Question

Here’s what makes Cal’s situation particularly fascinating:

Wilcox is under contract through 2027
His 2025 compensation package totals $4.8 million
His buyout sits at approximately $15 million
His winning percentage remains below the critical .490 threshold

The Bears find themselves caught between the cost of change and the price of staying the same. Administrators loathe paying hefty buyouts, but they also know stagnation can cost even more—lost ticket sales, declining donations, and recruiting struggles. It’s a classic case of fiscal conservatism vs. competitive ambition.

But Here’s Where It Gets Interesting

Sensing the pressure, Wilcox has made his boldest move yet: a complete offensive overhaul.

The headline-grabber? Bryan Harsin as offensive coordinator. The subplot? Nick Rolovich as a senior offensive assistant.

Harsin, the former Auburn and Boise State head coach, brings a proven offensive system but arrives with baggage after a tumultuous SEC tenure. Rolovich getting a shot at a new coaching gig is fascinating—not just because of his high-risk, high-reward offensive mind but also because his tenure at Washington State ended over his refusal to comply with state vaccine mandates, not because of poor coaching.

Here’s what these moves tell us:

Wilcox finally acknowledges the need for wholesale offensive change.
The program is willing to take calculated risks on controversial but talented coaches.
The “defensive-minded” head coach is ceding offensive control.

The Numbers That Matter

Take a look at this offensive progression (or regression):

The decline in rushing yards from 2023 to 2024 is alarming. The offense isn’t just struggling—it’s losing its identity. For a team that relies on ball control and keeping its defense fresh, that’s a major red flag.

But here’s the silver lining—defensive improvement:

Wilcox’s defenses remain his calling card, and the strides made in 2024 suggest a unit capable of keeping Cal competitive. But in today’s college football landscape, defense alone doesn’t win championships—or job security.

The X-Factor Nobody’s Talking About

Rich Lyons.

Cal’s new chancellor isn’t just any administrator—he’s the first Cal undergraduate to hold the position in nearly a century. And he’s already talking about making football “self-supporting.”

This matters for three reasons:

It signals potential changes in program evaluation. Wilcox isn’t just competing against expectations; he’s competing against financial sustainability models.
It suggests new approaches to resource allocation. Don’t expect deep-pocketed institutional support if the football program can’t prove its worth.
It adds another layer of pressure to perform. Wilcox now has a boss who understands the program’s impact on the university and might not be as patient as previous chancellors.

Here’s What Nobody Wants To Say Out Loud

The 2025 season isn’t just another year for Cal football.

It’s a referendum.

On Wilcox.
On the program’s direction.
On whether Cal can compete in the modern college football landscape.

With realignment reshaping conferences, NIL deals changing recruiting, and fan engagement at a premium, the Golden Bears can’t afford to drift any further into mediocrity. A failure to break through in 2025 could push the program toward drastic change.

The Bottom Line

The tools for success are there:

New offensive philosophy
Improved defensive metrics
Fresh administrative perspective
Second year in the ACC (without having to face Miami, Clemson, or Florida State)

But here’s the truth nobody wants to acknowledge:

None of it matters if Cal can’t finally break through that .490 threshold.

Because in college football, you either evolve or dissolve.

And 2025 will tell us which path Cal has chosen.

Finally…

Don’t miss another deep dive into college football’s most crucial storylines and program developments. Our team-by-team analysis gives you the insider perspective to understand where each program is headed in 2025 and beyond. Subscribe for free now to access our comprehensive breakdowns, exclusive hot seat rankings, and in-depth conference analysis delivered straight to your inbox. Join thousands of college football insiders who trust Coaches Hot Seat to keep them ahead of the game. Hit the link below to unlock all our premium content and never miss another update.

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