Kentucky Has Faced The SEC’s 9th-Toughest Schedule This Season. Here’s Why Their 2-4 Record And 16.7 Points Per Game Against Quality Defenses Means Tennessee Wins By 20+ On Saturday

Here’s what nobody’s talking about:

Kentucky has faced one of the most brutal schedules in college football this season. They’ve gone toe-to-toe with Georgia, Texas, and Ole Miss—all top-25 programs with elite defenses. And despite sitting at 2-4, they took Texas to overtime, losing 16-13, a game that showed real defensive grit. On paper, this looks like a team tested by fire and capable of giving Tennessee problems.

But here’s the problem.

Their offense cannot score. Against Power Five competition, Kentucky averages just 16.7 points per game. Their wins came against MAC opponents Toledo and Eastern Michigan—teams that made them look competent. Strip those away, and you’re staring at an offense that can’t sustain drives, can’t convert third downs, and can’t throw touchdowns.

And when Tennessee’s explosive attack takes the field on Saturday, that weakness gets exposed.

The Numbers Don’t Lie (Even When You Adjust For Competition)

Let’s cut through the noise and look at what actually matters.

Tennessee averages 511 yards per game. Kentucky averages 342. But you might say, “Tennessee played East Tennessee State and UAB—those stats are inflated.” Fair point. So let’s adjust for competition and see if the gap closes or widens.

Here’s what happens when you filter the data:

  • Tennessee vs Power Five opponents: 470 yards per game, 6.4 yards per play
  • Tennessee vs Georgia (No. 6): 496 yards, 41 points in overtime loss
  • Kentucky vs Power Five opponents: 314 yards per game, 4.5 yards per play
  • Kentucky vs Top-50 defenses: 16.7 points per game

Even after removing the cupcakes, Tennessee still ranks as an elite offense. They dropped 496 yards on Georgia—one of the nation’s best defenses—and pushed them to overtime. Meanwhile, Kentucky’s offense craters against quality competition.

The gap isn’t closing. It’s widening.

Kentucky’s Offense Has One Fatal Flaw

They can’t convert third downs.

With a 39% third-down conversion rate, Kentucky’s offense sputters every time they face third-and-medium. They average 0.7 passing touchdowns per game—that’s less than one per game—and their quarterback play has been inconsistent at best. Against SEC defenses, they’ve managed just 314 yards and 16.7 points per game.

Here’s what that means in real terms:

  • Kentucky goes three-and-out repeatedly
  • Their defense faces 70+ plays from Tennessee
  • By the third quarter, their defense is gassed
  • Tennessee pulls away in the second half

You can have the best defense in the world, but if you can’t score points, you can’t win football games.

Tennessee’s Tempo Is Going To Break Kentucky’s Defense

Here’s where this game gets decided.

Tennessee runs 75 plays per game—one of the fastest tempo offenses in the SEC. They come out firing with quick-strike drives, play-action deep shots, and an offensive line that creates lanes for their running backs. Kentucky’s defense has been respectable this season, holding opponents to 365 yards per game and forcing field goals in the red zone.

But sustained tempo breaks defenses.

By the third quarter, Tennessee’s depth shows. Kentucky’s defensive backs are chasing receivers on seam routes. Their linebackers are gassed from covering slot receivers. And Tennessee’s offensive line starts imposing its will. We’ve seen this movie before with Kentucky—they hang in for a half, then get blown out in the second half.

When you can’t score points, you can’t afford to let the other team dictate tempo.

The Georgia Game Told Us Everything We Needed To Know

Both teams played Georgia this season.

Let’s compare the results:

  • Tennessee vs Georgia: Lost 44-41 in overtime, 496 yards, 41 points
  • Kentucky vs Georgia: Lost 35-14, 270 yards, 14 points

That’s a 226-yard difference in offensive production against the same elite defense. Tennessee took one of the nation’s best teams to overtime in a game they arguably should’ve won. Kentucky got boat-raced at home.

If that doesn’t tell you everything about the offensive gap, nothing will.

The 3 X-Factors That Will Decide This Game

Let’s break down the key matchups.

1. Can Kentucky Convert Third Downs?

Kentucky’s offense lives and dies on third down. With a 39% conversion rate and Tennessee’s aggressive blitz packages coming off the edge, this could get ugly fast. If Kentucky can’t sustain drives, their defense faces 12-14 possessions.

That’s too many.

2. Red Zone Execution

Kentucky’s defense has been elite at limiting passing touchdowns—just 0.5 per game allowed. They force teams to kick field goals. But Tennessee’s balanced attack gives them multiple ways to score inside the 20. Touchdowns vs field goals will determine if this is a close game or a blowout.

Early touchdown conversions blow this game open by halftime.

3. Turnovers

This is Kentucky’s only path to an upset. If they can force 2-3 turnovers and create short fields, maybe—MAYBE—their limited offense can cobble together 20-24 points. But Tennessee’s been relatively careful with the ball (1.4 turnovers per game), and Kentucky isn’t exactly a ballhawking defense.

Betting on Kentucky to win the turnover battle by +2? That’s wishful thinking.

What Kentucky Needs To Do (Spoiler: It Won’t Be Enough)

Let’s game this out.

For Kentucky to pull off the upset, they need:

  • Win the turnover battle by +2 or more
  • Convert 50%+ of third downs (well above their season average)
  • Hold Tennessee under 400 total yards
  • Make every field goal attempt (they’re shooting 69% this season)

Even if Kentucky does ALL of those things, they still need to score 24+ points to have a chance. And against quality competition, they average 16.7 points per game. The math doesn’t work. The matchups don’t work. The tempo doesn’t work.

Kentucky can play inspired football for a half.

They can keep it close through sheer defensive discipline and field position management. But eventually—probably by early third quarter—Tennessee’s offensive firepower breaks through. And when it does, Kentucky doesn’t have the offensive capability to answer.

How This Game Plays Out

Here’s the quarter-by-quarter breakdown:

First Quarter: Tennessee establishes tempo. Quick three-and-out for Kentucky. Tennessee scores on a six-play, 73-yard drive capped by a play-action touchdown. 7-0 Vols.

Second Quarter: Kentucky strings together a decent drive using their run game and short passes. They stall in the red zone. Field goal. 7-3. Tennessee answers immediately with another touchdown drive. Kentucky gets another field goal before half. 17-10 Tennessee at halftime.

Third Quarter: This is where the game breaks open. Tennessee’s depth starts showing. Kentucky’s defense is gassed from defending 40+ plays in the first half. Tennessee rips off two scoring drives. Kentucky’s offense goes three-and-out twice. 31-13 Tennessee.

Fourth Quarter: Garbage time. Tennessee runs clock. Kentucky adds a late touchdown against prevent defense.

Final score: 38-17.

The Bottom Line

Look, I get it.

Kentucky has played a brutal schedule. They’ve faced a murderer’s row in the SEC, and their 2-4 record doesn’t fully reflect their defensive competence. They took Texas to overtime. They hung with Georgia for a half. This is a program that’s been battle-tested against elite competition.

But here’s the reality:

Their offense is one-dimensional. Their scoring ceiling against quality competition is 17-20 points. And Tennessee’s offense—even when you adjust for weak competition—is legitimately elite. 470 yards per game against Power Five teams. 6.4 yards per play. An up-tempo attack that wears down defenses. Home field advantage in Neyland Stadium.

Unless Tennessee commits 3+ turnovers, this game isn’t really in doubt.

Kentucky will keep it respectable for a half. But by the time the third quarter rolls around, Tennessee’s superior depth, tempo, and offensive firepower will have pulled away. The final score won’t be 50-10—Kentucky’s defense is too disciplined for that.

But a two-to-three score Tennessee victory? That’s not just likely—it’s inevitable.

Tennessee 38, Kentucky 17

Statistical Projections

Tennessee: 465-490 total yards | 38-41 points | 295 pass yards | 175 rush yards | 1 turnover

Kentucky: 300-320 total yards | 17-20 points | 190 pass yards | 120 rush yards | 2 turnovers

3 Keys To Watch

Tennessee’s first quarter tempo: If they jump out to a 14-0 or 17-3 lead early, Kentucky’s offense doesn’t have the firepower to dig out.

Kentucky’s third-down efficiency: They MUST convert 50%+ to sustain drives. Anything less and their defense faces 70+ plays.

Red zone execution: Touchdowns vs field goals will determine if this is a close game or a blowout.

Final Thought

The spread on this game should be Tennessee by 17-21 points. Kentucky’s offense is the limiting factor. You can have the best defense in the world, but if you can’t score points, you can’t win football games. And against Tennessee’s explosive attack, 17 points isn’t going to cut it.

Tennessee rolls. Kentucky fights hard for a half. But class—and offensive firepower—wins out.

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Kentucky Football 2025: Mark Stoops’ Last Stand

What happens when a coach with a $37.5 million buyout lands on one of college football’s hottest seats?

After a disastrous 4-8 season that snapped Kentucky’s eight-year bowl streak, the longest-tenured coach in the SEC finds himself on the hot seat. The Wildcats managed just one SEC victory in 2024. They averaged a league-worst 308.5 yards per game offensively. They finished with the program’s worst record since Stoops’ inaugural season in 2013.

The pressure couldn’t be more explicit.

As one anonymous SEC coach told Athlon Sports, “This is a make-or-break year for the future of this program. He’s got a very friendly contract that makes him hard to fire, but right now, it’s hard to look at the overall roster here and think they’re keeping pace with programs like Vanderbilt and South Carolina, who changed with the times.”

Another losing season would almost certainly end Stoops’ tenure, regardless of his contract extension, which runs through 2031, with a buyout approaching $37.5 million.

The Quarterback Gamble That Changes Everything

Everything about Kentucky’s 2025 season hinges on one player.

Zach Calzada arrives from Incarnate Word as Kentucky’s most experienced option after completing 65% of his passes for 3,791 yards, 35 touchdowns, and just nine interceptions in 2024. His journey back to the SEC represents both promise and risk for a program desperate for stability at the position.

Here’s what makes Calzada intriguing:

  • SEC pedigree from his memorable 2021 performance at Texas A&M
  • Threw for 285 yards and three touchdowns in a stunning 41-38 upset of top-ranked Alabama
  • Earned SEC Offensive Player of the Week honors for that performance
  • Brings leadership and mobility to an offense that ranked 119th nationally in scoring

“He’s battle-tested,” offensive coordinator Bush Hamdan said of Calzada. “He’s experienced the highs and the lows. This league is hard, but so is Zach.”

The 24-year-old quarterback’s ability to extend plays and avoid sacks could prove crucial behind an offensive line that allowed 2.1 sacks per game in 2024.

Complete Roster Reconstruction Through the Portal

Kentucky’s offseason approach bordered on desperation.

The Wildcats brought in 26 transfer portal additions while losing 29 players, fundamentally reshaping a roster that managed just 20.6 points per game in 2024. Only 40 players from last year’s team return. That’s a retention rate of just 47 percent.

The most dramatic changes occurred at these positions:

  • Wide receiver: Added five scholarship transfers and five high school signees while retaining only three players from 2024
  • Offensive line: Brought in Alex Wollschlaeger (Bowling Green), Cameron Jones (James Madison), and Shiyazh Pete (New Mexico State)
  • Defense: Added David Gusta (Washington State), Mi’Quise Humphrey-Grace (South Dakota), and Lorenzo Cowan (USC)

Key receiver additions include:

  • Kendrick Law from Alabama
  • Tory Stellato from Clemson
  • Ashton Cozart from SMU/Oregon

“We set that precedent right from the beginning,” Stoops said about integrating the new additions. “We always want to be player-led and player-led in the accountability phase, and these guys are working at it.”

The Schedule From Hell Awaits

Want to know why Vegas has Kentucky’s win total at just 4.5 games?

The Wildcats face one of the most challenging schedules in college football. They’ll host Ole Miss, Texas, Tennessee, and Florida at Kroger Field. All four opponents will likely be ranked. Road games await at South Carolina, Georgia, Auburn, Vanderbilt, and rival Louisville.

According to Sports Illustrated’s analysis: “Realistically, all nine of these teams could be ranked this season, making this one of the toughest schedules Coach Stoops will have played during his time in Lexington.”

The numbers tell the story:

  • Vegas win total: 4.5 games at FanDuel, 5.5 at DraftKings
  • Early spread projections show Kentucky favored in only four games
  • Non-conference games against Toledo, Eastern Michigan, and Tennessee Tech provide the only realistic early victories

The SEC gauntlet begins immediately after.

Cultural Reset and Leadership Challenges

How do you build team chemistry when 31 new players walk through the door?

Stoops launched the “Yearbook” program to help players learn each other’s names and conducted home visits to foster personal bonds. This cultural emphasis represents a direct response to the challenge of integrating so many new faces while maintaining standards.

“I love this place. I’ve been here 12 years, going on 13, and I promise you — I’ll be honest with you, I’m emotional right now talking about it because my ass wants to get back to the office and get to work to make this team better,” Stoops told KSR in March.

The emotional weight of the situation is obvious.

The coaching staff remains largely intact, providing continuity during turbulent times:

  • Kevin Barbay joined as an offensive analyst to assist Hamdan
  • Brad Lambert was hired to work with the secondary
  • Focus on accountability and player-led leadership continues

Special Teams Excellence Remains

Kentucky’s special teams unit represents one of the few bright spots.

Punter Aidan Laros returns after earning All-SEC second-team honors. Kicker Alex Raynor brings back elite accuracy following a 93.8 percent field goal and 96.3 percent extra point conversion rate in 2024. These specialists provide the “hidden yardage” advantages that could prove decisive in close games.

The return game lost Barion Brown’s explosive ability, but the Wildcats have prioritized special teams as a way to create scoring opportunities when the offense stalls.

The Buyout Factor Creates an Unusual Dynamic

Stoops’ massive contract extension creates a complex situation.

The $37.5 million buyout makes firing him financially burdensome for Kentucky, providing some insulation despite fan frustration following back-to-back losing seasons. However, the pressure from fans and administration continues to mount.

Here’s what the numbers show:

  • Season ticket sales dropped 12.7 percent
  • Only a few hundred fans attended the spring game
  • Clear disconnect between fanbase and program leadership

This tension between fiscal reality and performance expectations creates an unusual situation where Stoops has job security despite on-field failures.

What Success Actually Looks Like in 2025

Bowl eligibility represents the absolute minimum requirement.

Most analysts project that Kentucky will finish with four to five wins. Six victories would require significant improvement and several upsets. The best-case scenario involves Calzada playing efficiently, the offensive line gelling quickly, and at least one transfer receiver emerging as a playmaker.

As Sports Illustrated observed: “If Stoops gets this team to a bowl game, it will be the best job he has done in a season during his time at Kentucky.”

The keys to exceeding expectations:

  • Reduce turnovers from 1.9 per game average in 2024
  • Improve red zone efficiency from 43 percent touchdown rate
  • Generate consistent defensive pressure after losing key pass rushers
  • Win close games through special teams excellence

The Bottom Line: Prove It or Lose It

Kentucky football stands at a crossroads.

Stoops has spent 12 seasons building the Wildcats from SEC doormat to occasional contender, achieving unprecedented consistency with eight consecutive bowl appearances from 2016-2023. Recent regression has erased much of that goodwill and placed his future in jeopardy.

The 2025 season will determine whether Kentucky’s recent success was sustainable progress or merely a brief peak that will return to historical norms.

For Mark Stoops, 2025 isn’t just another season in Lexington—it’s his final audition.

The Next Billion Dollar Game

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Hot Seat Heat Wave: Stoops, Dilfer, and Drayton Feeling the Burn

A Hot Seat Heatwave is heading our way, featuring seats under some of the biggest names in the game. Every week, we’re tracking the coaches feeling the pressure, those whose jobs are on the line with every win and loss. This week, we’ve got a new entry into our Top 10, plus updates on two coaches facing mounting scrutiny as their programs struggle to find their footing. Get ready, folks, because things are about to get interesting.

Entering the top 10 this week is Mark Stoops at Kentucky

Mark Stoops – Kentucky

  • Conference: SEC
  • Base Salary: $9,000,000
  • School Win Percentage: 52.1%
  • Career Win Percentage: 52.1%
  • Stoops has a solid record but faces high expectations, given his substantial salary.

Let’s delve into the remarkable transformation under Mark Stoops. He took the reins at Kentucky, a program once considered the SEC’s underdog, and turned them into a formidable contender. It’s a story of resilience and determination. He inherited a 2-10 team and sculpted them into a consistent bowl contender, shattering decades-long losing streaks against rivals like Florida and Tennessee. He even led them to 10-win seasons, a feat they hadn’t achieved since the disco era.

However, with success comes the burden of expectations. The weight of these expectations is palpable, and it’s starting to take a toll on Stoops. The fans are growing impatient. They’re weary of the 7-5 seasons, the predictable offense, and the losses to teams they believe they should outplay. They see the potential in the team and question why Kentucky isn’t vying for SEC titles.

Now, Stoops isn’t backing down. He’s got that tough-guy mentality, that “I’ve been here before, I’ll weather this storm” attitude. But the pressure’s mounting. He needs to find a way to get this offense rolling, win those crucial games, and show that Kentucky can take that next step.

Here’s the twist: his buyout is surprisingly low. This opens up a world of possibilities for Kentucky. If the situation doesn’t improve, they could make a change without incurring significant financial strain. Stoops crafted something extraordinary at Kentucky, but he’s now standing at a crossroads. He needs to evolve, adapt, and demonstrate that he can elevate this program to the next level. The clock is ticking, Mark. It’s time to silence the skeptics.

Trent Dilfer: From Super Bowl Champ to College Flop?

Trent Dilfer, UAB

  • Conference: American
  • Base Salary: $1,300,000
  • School Win Percentage: 26.3%
  • Career Win Percentage: 26.3%
  • Hot Seat member Adam Binaut points out: UAB has been outscored 150-55 in their last three games. This program is on life support.

Trent Dilfer stepped into UAB with a ton of hype, a Super Bowl ring, and… well, not much else. Let’s be honest: The guy had never coached college ball. He inherited a winning program and a team that crushed it year after year. And what happened? They fell apart. It’s a situation that’s left fans and analysts alike scratching their heads in frustration.

5-14. That’s the record. A far cry from the championship banners they were hanging before he got there. Sure, they had a flashy offense for a minute, breaking records and all that. But records don’t win games, do they? The defense? It was a complete disaster. And to top it off, Dilfer’s out here making comments that rub everyone the wrong way.

Look, I get it. Sometimes, things don’t work out. But this? This feels different. This feels like a mismatch from the start. UAB deserves better. They deserve a leader who can build on what they have, not tear it down. The clock’s ticking, Trent. It’s time to step up or step aside.

Stan Drayton: Can “Culture Change” Save His Job at Temple?

Stan Drayton – Temple

  • Conference: American
  • Base Salary: $2,500,000
  • School Win Percentage: 25.0%
  • Career Win Percentage: 25.0%
  • Drayton’s third year at Temple hasn’t seen much improvement, keeping him on the hot seat.

Stan Drayton came into Temple preaching this whole “culture change” thing. Lots of talk about trust, ownership, and building the guys up. And hey, you can see some of that. The team has a different vibe. But let’s be blunt: winning cures everything. And right now, Temple ain’t winning.

8-24. That’s the record. Not exactly inspiring, is it? You can talk about “building” all you want, but at some point, you gotta show results. Drayton hasn’t.

He’s lost talent to more prominent programs, struggled to recruit, and those offensive and defensive lines? Yikes. Needs a serious overhaul.

Check out the complete rankings here and leave any comments here.

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What We’re Watchin’ Saturday – Week 5 Edition

Early Games

Kentucky at 6 Ole Miss

Game Time: Noon Eastern/9:00 AM Pacific

TV: ABC, ESPN+

Ole Miss is on fire; the Rebels are hotter than a two-dollar pistol. They’re lighting it up, leading the FBS in passing yards, total offense, scoring offense, and scoring defense. Dart’s slinging it like a gunslinger, and the Rebels are putting up video game numbers. But, let’s be honest, they’ve been playing a bunch of cupcakes. That changes this Saturday. Kentucky had Georgia on the ropes, and now they’re coming for Ole Miss. Can Kentucky slow down the Rebels’ high-octane offense? Or will Jaxson Dart and his crew keep this train rolling? This SEC showdown is about to get wild.

20 Oklahoma State at 23 Kansas State

Game Time: Noon Eastern/9:00 AM Pacific

TV: ESPN

We’ve got a Big 12 showdown brewing. Oklahoma State and Kansas State had their eyes on the prize, a Big 12 crown, and a shot at the Playoff. But now, one of them will be limping out of this weekend with two conference losses. Oklahoma State stumbled at home against Utah, and K-State got embarrassed by BYU. This isn’t just another game; this one has some serious stakes. Neither team wants to fall behind in this Big 12 title race dogfight. Keep your eyes on the quarterbacks. Bowman got yanked against Utah before leading a comeback that fell short, and Johnson threw up a couple of ducks against BYU. Who’s going to step up and lead their team to victory?

Afternoon Games

15 Louisville @ 16 Notre Dame

Game Time: 3:30 PM Eastern/12:30 PM Pacific

TV: Peacock

Louisville just passed their first real test against Georgia Tech. They got some help from their defense and special teams, and that Alabama transfer, Ja’Corey Brooks, looks like a highlight reel waiting to happen. Shough’s been sharp under center, but let’s be real: they only got two offensive touchdowns against GT. And they haven’t faced a defense like Notre Dame’s yet. This Irish defense is tough, and it is among the top 20 in the country. Louisville’s defense isn’t too shabby either, and Notre Dame’s offense has been sputtering except for that one trip to Purdue. Right now, Louisville looks like the more balanced team. A win on the road puts them in the conversation with the big boys, Miami and Clemson. For Notre Dame, it’s simple: win and stay on the Playoff path; lose, and that dream might be dead. This one is a slugfest.

Fresno State at UNLV

Game Time: 3:30 PM Eastern/12:30 PM Pacific

TV: FS1

Hold onto your hats because we’ve got an actual soap opera brewing in Vegas. Undefeated UNLV is in the spotlight, but not for the reasons they’d like. Their star quarterback, Matthew Sluka, is out, redshirting and hitting the transfer portal. A lot of controversy surrounds NIL deals, conference realignment, and a potential Group of 5 Playoff spot. Now, UNLV has to tune out all the noise and focus on the field. They’ve got a new quarterback, likely that FCS transfer Hajj-Malik Williams, and they’re facing a tough Fresno State team that gave Michigan a run for their money. This isn’t just a football game; it’s a full-blown drama.

Evening Games

2 Georgia at 4 Alabama

Game Time: 7:30 PM Eastern/4:30 PM Pacific

TV: ABC, ESPN+

This is it. The big one. Top-five showdown, SEC on SEC crime, Georgia versus Alabama. We haven’t seen these two Titans clash in the regular season since 2020. Since then, it’s been all neutral-site showdowns: SEC championships, National Championships. In those recent meetings, Bama’s got the edge, but Georgia walked away with the biggest prize, the natty. This time, the stakes are different; the Alabama coach is different, but the talent and the bad blood? That’s all still there. Can Georgia’s defense corral Jalen Milroe? Can DeBoer snag his first signature win as the head honcho in Tuscaloosa? There will be plenty of other big games this season, especially in the SEC. Heck, neither of these teams is even the top dog in their conference right now. But whoever wins this one? They’re going to be sitting pretty come Sunday morning. And the journey to get there? That’s going to be one hell of a show.

19 Illinois at 9 Penn State

Game Time: 7:30 PM Eastern/4:30 PM Pacific

TV: NBC

Illinois may not be flashy, but they’re getting it done. Efficient and opportunistic, they’re cashing in when they get in the red zone and winning the turnover battle. Altmyer’s been steady under center, making smart throws and keeping the ball out of harm’s way. But this trip to Happy Valley? That’s going to be their biggest test yet. Penn State just steamrolled Kent State, but let’s be honest, that was a tune-up game. Their offense looks much better under the new OC, and Allar’s been slinging it. But against Illinois, they have to protect the football. If they can do that and get the W, you’ll hear a lot more Playoff talk coming out of State College. This is a good old-fashioned Big Ten slugfest.

Night Game

Arizona at 10 Utah

Game Time: 10:15 PM Eastern/7:15 PM Pacific

TV: ESPN

Utah looks like the top dog in the new Big 12 after that road win against Oklahoma State. And they did it without their star quarterback, Cam Rising.  We’ll see if he’s back this week, but who knows with that hand injury? Luckily for Utah, freshman Isaac Wilson has been holding down the fort with help from Micah Bernard, who’s been tearing it up on the ground.

Arizona, on the other hand, is looking a little lost under new coach Brett Brennan. They got smacked around by Kansas State and had a bye week to figure things out. They need to find their groove fast.  If Fifita and McMillan can get hot, this game might get interesting. But if Utah’s defense keeps rolling, it could be a long night for the Wildcats.

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