Kentucky Football 2025: Mark Stoops’ Last Stand

What happens when a coach with a $37.5 million buyout lands on one of college football’s hottest seats?

After a disastrous 4-8 season that snapped Kentucky’s eight-year bowl streak, the longest-tenured coach in the SEC finds himself on the hot seat. The Wildcats managed just one SEC victory in 2024. They averaged a league-worst 308.5 yards per game offensively. They finished with the program’s worst record since Stoops’ inaugural season in 2013.

The pressure couldn’t be more explicit.

As one anonymous SEC coach told Athlon Sports, “This is a make-or-break year for the future of this program. He’s got a very friendly contract that makes him hard to fire, but right now, it’s hard to look at the overall roster here and think they’re keeping pace with programs like Vanderbilt and South Carolina, who changed with the times.”

Another losing season would almost certainly end Stoops’ tenure, regardless of his contract extension, which runs through 2031, with a buyout approaching $37.5 million.

The Quarterback Gamble That Changes Everything

Everything about Kentucky’s 2025 season hinges on one player.

Zach Calzada arrives from Incarnate Word as Kentucky’s most experienced option after completing 65% of his passes for 3,791 yards, 35 touchdowns, and just nine interceptions in 2024. His journey back to the SEC represents both promise and risk for a program desperate for stability at the position.

Here’s what makes Calzada intriguing:

  • SEC pedigree from his memorable 2021 performance at Texas A&M
  • Threw for 285 yards and three touchdowns in a stunning 41-38 upset of top-ranked Alabama
  • Earned SEC Offensive Player of the Week honors for that performance
  • Brings leadership and mobility to an offense that ranked 119th nationally in scoring

“He’s battle-tested,” offensive coordinator Bush Hamdan said of Calzada. “He’s experienced the highs and the lows. This league is hard, but so is Zach.”

The 24-year-old quarterback’s ability to extend plays and avoid sacks could prove crucial behind an offensive line that allowed 2.1 sacks per game in 2024.

Complete Roster Reconstruction Through the Portal

Kentucky’s offseason approach bordered on desperation.

The Wildcats brought in 26 transfer portal additions while losing 29 players, fundamentally reshaping a roster that managed just 20.6 points per game in 2024. Only 40 players from last year’s team return. That’s a retention rate of just 47 percent.

The most dramatic changes occurred at these positions:

  • Wide receiver: Added five scholarship transfers and five high school signees while retaining only three players from 2024
  • Offensive line: Brought in Alex Wollschlaeger (Bowling Green), Cameron Jones (James Madison), and Shiyazh Pete (New Mexico State)
  • Defense: Added David Gusta (Washington State), Mi’Quise Humphrey-Grace (South Dakota), and Lorenzo Cowan (USC)

Key receiver additions include:

  • Kendrick Law from Alabama
  • Tory Stellato from Clemson
  • Ashton Cozart from SMU/Oregon

“We set that precedent right from the beginning,” Stoops said about integrating the new additions. “We always want to be player-led and player-led in the accountability phase, and these guys are working at it.”

The Schedule From Hell Awaits

Want to know why Vegas has Kentucky’s win total at just 4.5 games?

The Wildcats face one of the most challenging schedules in college football. They’ll host Ole Miss, Texas, Tennessee, and Florida at Kroger Field. All four opponents will likely be ranked. Road games await at South Carolina, Georgia, Auburn, Vanderbilt, and rival Louisville.

According to Sports Illustrated’s analysis: “Realistically, all nine of these teams could be ranked this season, making this one of the toughest schedules Coach Stoops will have played during his time in Lexington.”

The numbers tell the story:

  • Vegas win total: 4.5 games at FanDuel, 5.5 at DraftKings
  • Early spread projections show Kentucky favored in only four games
  • Non-conference games against Toledo, Eastern Michigan, and Tennessee Tech provide the only realistic early victories

The SEC gauntlet begins immediately after.

Cultural Reset and Leadership Challenges

How do you build team chemistry when 31 new players walk through the door?

Stoops launched the “Yearbook” program to help players learn each other’s names and conducted home visits to foster personal bonds. This cultural emphasis represents a direct response to the challenge of integrating so many new faces while maintaining standards.

“I love this place. I’ve been here 12 years, going on 13, and I promise you — I’ll be honest with you, I’m emotional right now talking about it because my ass wants to get back to the office and get to work to make this team better,” Stoops told KSR in March.

The emotional weight of the situation is obvious.

The coaching staff remains largely intact, providing continuity during turbulent times:

  • Kevin Barbay joined as an offensive analyst to assist Hamdan
  • Brad Lambert was hired to work with the secondary
  • Focus on accountability and player-led leadership continues

Special Teams Excellence Remains

Kentucky’s special teams unit represents one of the few bright spots.

Punter Aidan Laros returns after earning All-SEC second-team honors. Kicker Alex Raynor brings back elite accuracy following a 93.8 percent field goal and 96.3 percent extra point conversion rate in 2024. These specialists provide the “hidden yardage” advantages that could prove decisive in close games.

The return game lost Barion Brown’s explosive ability, but the Wildcats have prioritized special teams as a way to create scoring opportunities when the offense stalls.

The Buyout Factor Creates an Unusual Dynamic

Stoops’ massive contract extension creates a complex situation.

The $37.5 million buyout makes firing him financially burdensome for Kentucky, providing some insulation despite fan frustration following back-to-back losing seasons. However, the pressure from fans and administration continues to mount.

Here’s what the numbers show:

  • Season ticket sales dropped 12.7 percent
  • Only a few hundred fans attended the spring game
  • Clear disconnect between fanbase and program leadership

This tension between fiscal reality and performance expectations creates an unusual situation where Stoops has job security despite on-field failures.

What Success Actually Looks Like in 2025

Bowl eligibility represents the absolute minimum requirement.

Most analysts project that Kentucky will finish with four to five wins. Six victories would require significant improvement and several upsets. The best-case scenario involves Calzada playing efficiently, the offensive line gelling quickly, and at least one transfer receiver emerging as a playmaker.

As Sports Illustrated observed: “If Stoops gets this team to a bowl game, it will be the best job he has done in a season during his time at Kentucky.”

The keys to exceeding expectations:

  • Reduce turnovers from 1.9 per game average in 2024
  • Improve red zone efficiency from 43 percent touchdown rate
  • Generate consistent defensive pressure after losing key pass rushers
  • Win close games through special teams excellence

The Bottom Line: Prove It or Lose It

Kentucky football stands at a crossroads.

Stoops has spent 12 seasons building the Wildcats from SEC doormat to occasional contender, achieving unprecedented consistency with eight consecutive bowl appearances from 2016-2023. Recent regression has erased much of that goodwill and placed his future in jeopardy.

The 2025 season will determine whether Kentucky’s recent success was sustainable progress or merely a brief peak that will return to historical norms.

For Mark Stoops, 2025 isn’t just another season in Lexington—it’s his final audition.

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Hot Seat Heat Wave: Stoops, Dilfer, and Drayton Feeling the Burn

A Hot Seat Heatwave is heading our way, featuring seats under some of the biggest names in the game. Every week, we’re tracking the coaches feeling the pressure, those whose jobs are on the line with every win and loss. This week, we’ve got a new entry into our Top 10, plus updates on two coaches facing mounting scrutiny as their programs struggle to find their footing. Get ready, folks, because things are about to get interesting.

Entering the top 10 this week is Mark Stoops at Kentucky

Mark Stoops – Kentucky

  • Conference: SEC
  • Base Salary: $9,000,000
  • School Win Percentage: 52.1%
  • Career Win Percentage: 52.1%
  • Stoops has a solid record but faces high expectations, given his substantial salary.

Let’s delve into the remarkable transformation under Mark Stoops. He took the reins at Kentucky, a program once considered the SEC’s underdog, and turned them into a formidable contender. It’s a story of resilience and determination. He inherited a 2-10 team and sculpted them into a consistent bowl contender, shattering decades-long losing streaks against rivals like Florida and Tennessee. He even led them to 10-win seasons, a feat they hadn’t achieved since the disco era.

However, with success comes the burden of expectations. The weight of these expectations is palpable, and it’s starting to take a toll on Stoops. The fans are growing impatient. They’re weary of the 7-5 seasons, the predictable offense, and the losses to teams they believe they should outplay. They see the potential in the team and question why Kentucky isn’t vying for SEC titles.

Now, Stoops isn’t backing down. He’s got that tough-guy mentality, that “I’ve been here before, I’ll weather this storm” attitude. But the pressure’s mounting. He needs to find a way to get this offense rolling, win those crucial games, and show that Kentucky can take that next step.

Here’s the twist: his buyout is surprisingly low. This opens up a world of possibilities for Kentucky. If the situation doesn’t improve, they could make a change without incurring significant financial strain. Stoops crafted something extraordinary at Kentucky, but he’s now standing at a crossroads. He needs to evolve, adapt, and demonstrate that he can elevate this program to the next level. The clock is ticking, Mark. It’s time to silence the skeptics.

Trent Dilfer: From Super Bowl Champ to College Flop?

Trent Dilfer, UAB

  • Conference: American
  • Base Salary: $1,300,000
  • School Win Percentage: 26.3%
  • Career Win Percentage: 26.3%
  • Hot Seat member Adam Binaut points out: UAB has been outscored 150-55 in their last three games. This program is on life support.

Trent Dilfer stepped into UAB with a ton of hype, a Super Bowl ring, and… well, not much else. Let’s be honest: The guy had never coached college ball. He inherited a winning program and a team that crushed it year after year. And what happened? They fell apart. It’s a situation that’s left fans and analysts alike scratching their heads in frustration.

5-14. That’s the record. A far cry from the championship banners they were hanging before he got there. Sure, they had a flashy offense for a minute, breaking records and all that. But records don’t win games, do they? The defense? It was a complete disaster. And to top it off, Dilfer’s out here making comments that rub everyone the wrong way.

Look, I get it. Sometimes, things don’t work out. But this? This feels different. This feels like a mismatch from the start. UAB deserves better. They deserve a leader who can build on what they have, not tear it down. The clock’s ticking, Trent. It’s time to step up or step aside.

Stan Drayton: Can “Culture Change” Save His Job at Temple?

Stan Drayton – Temple

  • Conference: American
  • Base Salary: $2,500,000
  • School Win Percentage: 25.0%
  • Career Win Percentage: 25.0%
  • Drayton’s third year at Temple hasn’t seen much improvement, keeping him on the hot seat.

Stan Drayton came into Temple preaching this whole “culture change” thing. Lots of talk about trust, ownership, and building the guys up. And hey, you can see some of that. The team has a different vibe. But let’s be blunt: winning cures everything. And right now, Temple ain’t winning.

8-24. That’s the record. Not exactly inspiring, is it? You can talk about “building” all you want, but at some point, you gotta show results. Drayton hasn’t.

He’s lost talent to more prominent programs, struggled to recruit, and those offensive and defensive lines? Yikes. Needs a serious overhaul.

Check out the complete rankings here and leave any comments here.

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What We’re Watchin’ Saturday – Week 5 Edition

Early Games

Kentucky at 6 Ole Miss

Game Time: Noon Eastern/9:00 AM Pacific

TV: ABC, ESPN+

Ole Miss is on fire; the Rebels are hotter than a two-dollar pistol. They’re lighting it up, leading the FBS in passing yards, total offense, scoring offense, and scoring defense. Dart’s slinging it like a gunslinger, and the Rebels are putting up video game numbers. But, let’s be honest, they’ve been playing a bunch of cupcakes. That changes this Saturday. Kentucky had Georgia on the ropes, and now they’re coming for Ole Miss. Can Kentucky slow down the Rebels’ high-octane offense? Or will Jaxson Dart and his crew keep this train rolling? This SEC showdown is about to get wild.

20 Oklahoma State at 23 Kansas State

Game Time: Noon Eastern/9:00 AM Pacific

TV: ESPN

We’ve got a Big 12 showdown brewing. Oklahoma State and Kansas State had their eyes on the prize, a Big 12 crown, and a shot at the Playoff. But now, one of them will be limping out of this weekend with two conference losses. Oklahoma State stumbled at home against Utah, and K-State got embarrassed by BYU. This isn’t just another game; this one has some serious stakes. Neither team wants to fall behind in this Big 12 title race dogfight. Keep your eyes on the quarterbacks. Bowman got yanked against Utah before leading a comeback that fell short, and Johnson threw up a couple of ducks against BYU. Who’s going to step up and lead their team to victory?

Afternoon Games

15 Louisville @ 16 Notre Dame

Game Time: 3:30 PM Eastern/12:30 PM Pacific

TV: Peacock

Louisville just passed their first real test against Georgia Tech. They got some help from their defense and special teams, and that Alabama transfer, Ja’Corey Brooks, looks like a highlight reel waiting to happen. Shough’s been sharp under center, but let’s be real: they only got two offensive touchdowns against GT. And they haven’t faced a defense like Notre Dame’s yet. This Irish defense is tough, and it is among the top 20 in the country. Louisville’s defense isn’t too shabby either, and Notre Dame’s offense has been sputtering except for that one trip to Purdue. Right now, Louisville looks like the more balanced team. A win on the road puts them in the conversation with the big boys, Miami and Clemson. For Notre Dame, it’s simple: win and stay on the Playoff path; lose, and that dream might be dead. This one is a slugfest.

Fresno State at UNLV

Game Time: 3:30 PM Eastern/12:30 PM Pacific

TV: FS1

Hold onto your hats because we’ve got an actual soap opera brewing in Vegas. Undefeated UNLV is in the spotlight, but not for the reasons they’d like. Their star quarterback, Matthew Sluka, is out, redshirting and hitting the transfer portal. A lot of controversy surrounds NIL deals, conference realignment, and a potential Group of 5 Playoff spot. Now, UNLV has to tune out all the noise and focus on the field. They’ve got a new quarterback, likely that FCS transfer Hajj-Malik Williams, and they’re facing a tough Fresno State team that gave Michigan a run for their money. This isn’t just a football game; it’s a full-blown drama.

Evening Games

2 Georgia at 4 Alabama

Game Time: 7:30 PM Eastern/4:30 PM Pacific

TV: ABC, ESPN+

This is it. The big one. Top-five showdown, SEC on SEC crime, Georgia versus Alabama. We haven’t seen these two Titans clash in the regular season since 2020. Since then, it’s been all neutral-site showdowns: SEC championships, National Championships. In those recent meetings, Bama’s got the edge, but Georgia walked away with the biggest prize, the natty. This time, the stakes are different; the Alabama coach is different, but the talent and the bad blood? That’s all still there. Can Georgia’s defense corral Jalen Milroe? Can DeBoer snag his first signature win as the head honcho in Tuscaloosa? There will be plenty of other big games this season, especially in the SEC. Heck, neither of these teams is even the top dog in their conference right now. But whoever wins this one? They’re going to be sitting pretty come Sunday morning. And the journey to get there? That’s going to be one hell of a show.

19 Illinois at 9 Penn State

Game Time: 7:30 PM Eastern/4:30 PM Pacific

TV: NBC

Illinois may not be flashy, but they’re getting it done. Efficient and opportunistic, they’re cashing in when they get in the red zone and winning the turnover battle. Altmyer’s been steady under center, making smart throws and keeping the ball out of harm’s way. But this trip to Happy Valley? That’s going to be their biggest test yet. Penn State just steamrolled Kent State, but let’s be honest, that was a tune-up game. Their offense looks much better under the new OC, and Allar’s been slinging it. But against Illinois, they have to protect the football. If they can do that and get the W, you’ll hear a lot more Playoff talk coming out of State College. This is a good old-fashioned Big Ten slugfest.

Night Game

Arizona at 10 Utah

Game Time: 10:15 PM Eastern/7:15 PM Pacific

TV: ESPN

Utah looks like the top dog in the new Big 12 after that road win against Oklahoma State. And they did it without their star quarterback, Cam Rising.  We’ll see if he’s back this week, but who knows with that hand injury? Luckily for Utah, freshman Isaac Wilson has been holding down the fort with help from Micah Bernard, who’s been tearing it up on the ground.

Arizona, on the other hand, is looking a little lost under new coach Brett Brennan. They got smacked around by Kansas State and had a bye week to figure things out. They need to find their groove fast.  If Fifita and McMillan can get hot, this game might get interesting. But if Utah’s defense keeps rolling, it could be a long night for the Wildcats.

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