These rankings reflect pressure, not predictions. We don’t forecast firings. We track the gap between expectations and results – the weight of buyouts, the patience of administrators, the brutal math of wins and losses in a sport that changes by the hour.
This list is a work in progress.
Openings remain unfilled. Coordinators are fielding calls. NFL franchises are circling college sidelines. By the time you read this, names may have moved to new programs, new positions, or out of the profession entirely.
What won’t change:
The decisions these coaches made in 2025. The results those decisions produced. And the pressure that follows them into the off-season.
Ten coaches.
Ten programs, stuck between the cost of change and the cost of staying the same.
#1. Mike Norvell – Florida State (5-7, 2-6 ACC)
Started 3-0 with win over #8 Alabama, collapsed to 7 losses in final 9 games.
Outgained opponents in 10 of 11 games but kept losing.
Lost to Stanford (no head coach), NC State, Florida.
Norvell publicly admitted he doesn’t have answers after losses.
Administration retained him with vague “fundamental changes” statement despite $60M+ buyout.
Zero road wins.
Fan base exhausted.
#2. Mike Locksley – Maryland (4-8, 1-8 Big Ten)
Started 4-0, finished 0-8.
Pattern repeated: 21-5 in Aug/Sept under Locksley, 15-39 after that.
Eight-game losing streak included a loss to Michigan State (winless in conference entering the game).
Now 16-43 in Big Ten play, 0-18 vs ranked Big Ten opponents.
Worst winning percentage of any Power Four coach with tenure as long as his (after Cal fired Wilcox).
“Fire Locksley” chants at Indiana game.
AD Jim Smith retained him citing $13M buyout, lack of booster money, desire to build around freshman QB Malik Washington.
Locksley: “winning has a cost.”
#3. Shane Beamer – South Carolina (4-8, 1-7 SEC)
SEC Coach of Year 2024 to hot seat in 11 months.
Entered 2025 ranked #13 after 6-game win streak, finished 4-8.
Only Power Four team never to hit 350 yards in single game all season.
Fired OC Mike Shula (after 9 games), OL coach Lonnie Teasley, RB coach Marquel Blackwell.
Fourth OC in five years incoming.
Clemson beat them 28-14 at home (6th straight loss in Columbia).
Beamer gave “one billion percent” guarantee 2026 will be different.
2026 schedule brutal: at Alabama, Florida, Oklahoma; home vs Georgia, Tennessee, Texas A&M.
#4. Dave Aranda – Baylor (5-7, 3-6 Big 12)
The 2021 Big 12 championship now feels like a different lifetime.
22-26 since that trophy.
Defense (Aranda’s specialty) ranked 112th in rushing defense, 106th in total defense, and 123rd in sacks.
Sawyer Robertson led the nation in passing yards; it didn’t matter.
Went 1-5 down stretch.
Only retained due to AD Mack Rhoades’ resignation amid investigation (alleged sideline altercation with TE Michael Trigg).
President Linda Livingstone’s retention letter read like a hostage statement: “We are not settling for mediocrity,” while keeping the coach who delivered exactly that.
37-35 at Baylor with one elite season, five years of drift.
#5. Luke Fickell – Wisconsin (4-8, 1-7 Big Ten)
Took Cincinnati to CFP.
Now 17-21 at Wisconsin with back-to-back losing seasons (first since 1991-92).
Worst record since 1-10 in 1990.
Offense historically bad: 135th of 136 FBS teams in yards (261.6), 134th scoring (12.5 PPG).
Shut out in consecutive games (Ohio State, Iowa) for the first time since 1977.
Lost to Minnesota 17-7 in the finale.
QB situation disaster—hand-picked transfers available for full season in just 11 of 33 games due to injuries.
Fired OC Phil Longo after 10 games in 2024, answered “Why does it matter?” when asked who’d call plays.
Four-star RB Amari Latimer flipped to West Virginia on signing day.
AD Chris McIntosh issued a vote of confidence and promised more resources.
6-18 since taking over program that played in 11 bowls under Rick Stockstill’s 18-year tenure.
Lost season opener to FCS Austin Peay.
Seven-game losing streak included losses to Delaware, Missouri State, Kennesaw State (all in first/second year as FBS, all bowl eligible or close).
Defense allowed 31.5 PPG. Lost four consecutive conference games by touchdown or less.
Closed with wins over 2-10 Sam Houston, 4-8 New Mexico State.
Mason is calling that “momentum.”
Retained reportedly because AD Chris Massaro may retire in 2026.
Now 33-67 as head coach.
Stanford coordinator “shine” wore off at Vanderbilt, and it wore off in Murfreesboro.
#7. Bill Belichick – North Carolina (4-8, 2-6 ACC)
The six-time Super Bowl champion went 4-8 in his first college season.
Debut: College GameDay for 48-14 loss to TCU.
Midseason WRAL report: program “unstructured mess,” “complete disaster.”
Lost five games by 16+ points.
Three FBS wins vs teams with a combined 8-28 record.
Offense last in ACC: 264.8 yards, 19.3 PPG.
GM Mike Lombardi called UNC the “33rd NFL team” at the presser.
Off-field chaos: banned Patriots scouts, assistant suspended for NCAA violations, players cited for reckless driving, 24-year-old girlfriend tabloid fixture.
Four-minute postgame presser after NC State blowout, no season recap: “I don’t have one. We haven’t done it.”
Guaranteed $10M/year through 2027.
Losing players to the portal while fielding NFL inquiries.
Three straight losing seasons (two New England, one Chapel Hill).
“Patriot Way” hasn’t translated.
#8. Scotty Walden – UTEP (2-10, 1-7 CUSA)
Turned Austin Peay into an FCS power.
5-19 in two years at UTEP.
Finished 2-10 in 2025 (one fewer win than Year 1).
Finale: 61-31 humiliation at Delaware (first FBS season, still blew out UTEP by 30).
Walden confronted Delaware coach Ryan Carty over a late field goal, calling it “classless.”
UTEP threw five interceptions that game.
Lost to Kennesaw State, Missouri State, and Jacksonville State (all FCS) a year ago.
UTEP hasn’t won a bowl game since 1967 (the longest FBS bowl drought).
Moves to Mountain West in 2026: tougher opponents, longer travel.
Age 35 with time to figure it out, but rebuild producing no results.
#9. Jay Sawvel – Wyoming (4-8, 3-5 Mountain West)
Craig Bohl built seven straight winning seasons.
Sawvel: 7-17 in two years, 4-11 conference, zero bowls.
Finished 4-8 in 2025, four-game losing streak to end season (24 combined points).
Defense solid (19.9 PPG, 23rd nationally).
Offense averaged 16 PPG (inflated by two defensive TDs).
Demoted OC Jay Johnson midseason, promoted WR coach Jovon Bouknight – didn’t help.
Beat Colorado State 28-0, then scored 17 total over the final three games.
AD Tom Burman confirmed return for Year 3, citing $2.88M buyout: “4-8 doesn’t work” but Sawvel “gives us the best chance to get it fixed.”
Mountain West losing Boise State, CSU, Fresno State, SDSU, Utah State to Pac-12.
Only 20 players remain from Bohl era, none earned all-conference honors.
Rebuild stalling.
#10. Dell McGee – Georgia State (1-11, 0-8 Sun Belt)
Two national championship rings at Georgia. 4-20 at Georgia State.
Dell McGee helped develop Nick Chubb, Sony Michel, and D’Andre Swift into NFL first-rounders.
He can’t develop a competitive Sun Belt roster.
Inherited a program that went 7-6 with a bowl win in 2023 under Shawn Elliott.
Two years later: back-to-back double-digit loss seasons.
The 2025 campaign delivered historic futility.
Lost opener at Ole Miss 63-14 (gave up nearly 700 yards).
Lost to Vanderbilt 70-28—first time allowing 70 points in program history.
Defense surrendered 40.7 PPG (135th of 136 FBS teams).
Nine-game losing streak to finish.
Only win: FCS Murray State.
The Hue Jackson hire told the story.
McGee promoted the 0-16 Browns architect (3-36-1 NFL record) to offensive coordinator after Grambling State fired him for “lack of transparency, coordination, and collaboration.”
The results: 21.1 PPG, 114th nationally.
Lost finale 10-27 at Old Dominion.
McGee’s Georgia State tenure has never held an opponent under 21 points.
Not once in 24 games.
He’s now 4-20 as a head coach at a program that made four bowls in five years before he arrived.
The “four Cs”, connected, competitive, committed, and composure, remain talking points.
Results remain absent.
AD Charlie Cobb hasn’t addressed McGee’s future publicly.
The program averaged 11,000 fans at Center Parc Stadium – when they showed up.
Year 3 brings no relief: at Georgia Tech, at LSU, at Miami on the non-conference slate.
Position coaching excellence doesn’t automatically translate to program building.
Georgia State is learning that lesson at considerable cost.
After a disastrous 4-8 season in 2024, Maryland’s head coach enters the most pivotal year of his career with everything on the line. The program stands at a crossroads that could determine the next half-decade of Terps football.
But here’s the crazy part: despite last year’s collapse, all the ingredients for a dramatic turnaround are sitting right there on the table:
A shockingly favorable 2025 schedule (no Ohio State, Penn State, or Oregon)
An aggressive transfer portal haul addresses immediate needs
One of the program’s strongest recruiting classes in recent memory
New coordinator hires bringing legitimate NFL coaching pedigree
The question isn’t whether Maryland has the pieces to turn things around. The question is whether they can execute when it matters most.
Let’s Talk About What Went Horribly Wrong in 2024
Maryland’s 2024 season was Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde.
The Terps kicked things off looking like legitimate Big Ten contenders, rattling off three non-conference victories against UConn, Virginia, and Villanova.
Then came conference play, and the implosion was breathtaking:
A single Big Ten win (a narrow USC upset) against seven losses
Most conference defeats coming by double-digit margins
A humiliating 44-7 season-ending beatdown at Penn State
What made 2024 so frustrating was that Maryland actually excelled in one crucial area: the passing game. The Terps’ aerial attack ranked 13th nationally (275.7 yards per game), with Tai Felton emerging as a legitimate #1 receiver (1,124 yards, 9 TDs).
But this success masked fatal flaws that doomed the season:
A non-existent rushing attack (110.6 yards per game, 112th nationally)
A defense that leaked points (30.4 per game)
An inability to pressure opposing QBs (131st of 134 FBS teams in sack rate)
Turnover issues (-3 margin, 102nd nationally)
The result? Maryland’s worst record since 2019, and Locksley’s seat is heating to near-combustible levels.
The Great Roster Reset Is Unprecedented
The aftermath of 2024 triggered a mass exodus unlike anything we’ve seen in College Park.
Twenty-one players fled to the transfer portal—one of the highest totals in the country. Think about that. Nearly two dozen scholarship athletes decided they’d rather play football anywhere else than return to Maryland.
Key departures included:
Starting QB Billy Edwards Jr.
RB Roman Hemby
WRs Kaden Prather and Tai Felton
LB Kellan Wyatt
But instead of wallowing, Locksley made his career’s most aggressive portal moves. He brought in 16+ transfers targeting immediate needs:
QB Room Reconstruction: Justyn Martin (UCLA) and MJ Morris (Coastal Carolina)
New Receiving Corps: Jalil Farooq (Oklahoma), Kaleb Webb (Tennessee), Jordan Scott (Florida State)
O-Line Reinforcements: Multiple additions including Carlos Moore Jr. (Elon), Marcus Dumervil (Arkansas)
Defensive Upgrades: Joel Starlings (North Carolina), Sedrick Smith (Alabama A&M)
This isn’t just tweaking the roster. This is a complete teardown and rebuild in a single offseason.
“As I’ve learned with the new landscape we’re in, you don’t have time to develop,” Locksley admitted at spring media day, officially abandoning his previous “developmental program” philosophy.
Translation: Win now or clean out your office.
Recruiting Is Somehow Red-Hot Despite the On-Field Disaster
Here’s the weirdest part of the Maryland football story.
Despite the program seemingly crumbling on the field, Locksley still wins major recruiting battles. The 2025 class ranks 25th nationally—incredibly impressive for a team that just went 4-8.
Two blue-chip recruits stand out as potential immediate difference-makers:
Malik Washington (QB): The 6’4″, 215-pound Archbishop Spalding product is the 54th-ranked recruit nationally. With a cannon arm and dual-threat capabilities, it wouldn’t be shocking to see him under center in Week 1.
Zahir Mathis (EDGE): The biggest recruiting win of Locksley’s career. The former Ohio State commit chose Maryland on National Signing Day, giving the Terps a 6’6″ edge rusher with a wingspan approaching 6’10”.
The 2025 class includes seven ESPN 300 players—the most in program history—and Maryland locked down 14 in-state prospects.
The talent pipeline hasn’t dried up. If anything, it’s flowing stronger than ever, creating a bizarre disconnect between recruiting rankings and on-field results.
This recruiting momentum offers Locksley a compelling argument for keeping his job: “I’m still bringing in the talent to turn this around.”
The 2025 Schedule Is a Gift from the Football Gods
If you were designing a bounce-back schedule for a coach on the hot seat, it would look exactly like Maryland’s 2025 slate.
Non-Conference (3 games):
Aug. 30: vs. Florida Atlantic
Sept. 6: vs. Northern Illinois
Sept. 13: vs. Towson
Big Ten (9 games):
Sept. 20: at Wisconsin
Oct. 4: vs. Washington
Oct. 11: vs. Nebraska
Oct. 18: at UCLA
Nov. 1: vs. Indiana
Nov. 8: at Rutgers
Nov. 15: at Illinois
Nov. 22: vs. Michigan
Nov. 29: at Michigan State
The schedule gods blessed Maryland with:
No Ohio State
No Penn State
No Oregon
No USC
Three extremely winnable non-conference home games
Multiple winnable Big Ten matchups (Rutgers, Illinois, Indiana)
Let’s be clear: if Maryland doesn’t reach bowl eligibility with this schedule, Locksley will update his resume on December 1st.
The path to six wins is right there. The opening non-conference stretch should yield three victories. After that, the Terps need three conference wins from games against Indiana, Rutgers, Illinois, and Michigan State.
This isn’t just a favorable schedule. It’s a lifeline thrown to a drowning program.
The QB Battle Will Define Everything
The most fascinating storyline of Maryland’s 2025 season is unfolding right now.
After losing their top three quarterbacks to the transfer portal, the Terps will feature a QB competition between two players who’ve barely seen collegiate action:
Justyn Martin – The UCLA transfer brings the pedigree of a Power 5 program but has just one career start.
Malik Washington – The true freshman phenom arrives with sky-high expectations as the 54th-ranked recruit nationally.
New offensive coordinator Pep Hamilton (who has coached Justin Herbert, C.J. Stroud, and Andrew Luck in the NFL) will make the final call. He’s already raving about Washington’s “elite traits” and “photographic memory,” which suggests the freshman has a legitimate shot at starting from Day 1.
Don’t underestimate what getting the quarterback position right would mean for this program. Maryland’s passing game was already among the top-15 nationally last year, but its quarterback play was inconsistent. With the right signal-caller, this offense could explode.
Whether it’s Martin’s experience or Washington’s raw talent, the winner of this competition inherits an offense that can move the ball effectively with competent leadership.
The NFL-ification of Maryland’s Coaching Staff
Locksley is making one final, bold bet: bringing NFL coaching expertise to College Park.
He’s completely revamped his staff with a focus on professional pedigree, particularly with his two new coordinators, who bring a combined 31 years of NFL coaching experience:
Offensive Coordinator Pep Hamilton: Developed NFL QBs Justin Herbert, C.J. Stroud, and Andrew Luck
Defensive Coordinator Ted Monachino: Extensive pro coaching background, including with the Baltimore Ravens
This pivot toward an NFL coaching model makes perfect sense for two reasons:
It’s a direct response to the transfer portal era—players want coaches who can prepare them for the pros
It signals to recruits that Maryland is committed to development at the highest level
It’s also a calculated gamble that more experienced, professionally-oriented coaches can accelerate player development fast enough to save Locksley’s job.
“The whining and complaining [about the new era of college sports], those are excuses,” inside linebackers coach Zac Spavital said this spring, summarizing the staff’s no-nonsense approach.
Let’s Talk About That Flaming Hot Seat
There’s no way to sugarcoat this.
Mike Locksley enters 2025 with his coaching future hanging by a thread. After posting a 4-8 record in 2024, multiple national outlets have identified him as one of the coaches most likely to get fired if results don’t improve dramatically.
The stats tell a damning story:
33-41 overall record at Maryland
Zero finishes in the Big Ten top half
A disastrous regression after back-to-back bowl seasons
USA Today recently ranked Locksley 16th among Big Ten coaches, noting that last season’s “4-8 finish was a major step back after Maryland had made three bowl games in a row.”
The prevailing consensus among college football insiders? Maryland needs at least 7-8 wins in 2025 for Locksley to keep his job.
Currently in the seventh year of his contract (which runs through 2026), Locksley’s recruiting prowess has bought him time. But at some point, recruiting rankings need to translate to wins, and that point is now.
So What Actually Happens in 2025?
Projections for Maryland’s season break down into three distinct camps:
The Optimists: Some believe an eight-win season is genuinely attainable given:
The favorable schedule
The talent influx through recruiting
The transfer portal reinforcements
The upgraded coaching staff
The Pessimists: Others warn that even with the softer schedule, another sub-.500 season remains possible if:
The quarterback situation doesn’t stabilize
The defense continues its struggles
The roster overhaul creates chemistry issues
The coaching changes don’t translate to immediate improvement
The Realists: Most early previews peg Maryland for a 6-6 season with the potential to reach 7-5 if they win their toss-up games.
For the Terps to exceed these modest expectations, four things must happen:
The transfer haul must make an immediate impact
Either Martin or Washington must provide stability at quarterback
The defense (particularly the pass rush) must show dramatic improvement
Maryland must capitalize on its favorable non-conference slate
The 2025 season is Locksley’s last stand.
He’s abandoned his “The Best is Ahead” slogan in favor of a “win now” approach that acknowledges the moment’s urgency. With a favorable schedule, improved talent, and a coaching staff built for immediate results, the opportunity for a breakthrough exists.
The only question is whether Maryland can finally deliver when it matters most.
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