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Brian Kelly Is Out at LSU—And the Coaching Carousel Just Got Absolutely Insane

Mark Haines on October 27, 2025

The coaching carousel just claimed its biggest name yet.

Brian Kelly is out at LSU. Fired. Done. Less than 24 hours after a humiliating 49-25 home loss to Texas A&M—after running into the locker room while students chanted “Fire Kelly,” after being forced to come back out and sing the alma mater with his players—LSU finally pulled the trigger. But this wasn’t a simple firing. This was a full-blown confrontation that spiraled out of control.

Here’s what happened.

The Dramatic Showdown That Ended It All

Sunday afternoon, according to The Athletic’s Bruce Feldman and Ralph D. Russo.

Brian Kelly and athletic director Scott Woodward meet. Woodward wants staff changes. Specifically, he wants Kelly to fire offensive coordinator Joe Sloan. LSU’s offense ranks dead last in the SEC in rushing. Something has to give. Kelly fires back. If we’re making staff changes, he says, I want to make different changes. Ones Woodward isn’t comfortable with.

Things get tense.

The conversation escalates. Kelly pushes back hard against his boss. Threats about negotiating Kelly’s $53 million buyout come up. But there’s a question: will the LSU Board of Supervisors even give Woodward the authority to do that?

By Sunday night, it’s over.

Kelly is out. A team meeting is called for 8 p.m. Associate head coach Frank Wilson is named interim head coach. Tight ends coach Alex Atkins will take over play-calling duties. And on Monday morning, LSU announces they’ve fired Sloan anyway. “When Coach Kelly arrived at LSU four years ago, we had high hopes that he would lead us to multiple SEC and national championships during his time in Baton Rouge,” Woodward said in the release. “Ultimately, the success at the level that LSU demands simply did not materialize.”

Translation: You didn’t win enough.

The Wildest Coaching Carousel Year in Recent Memory

But here’s the thing: Kelly isn’t the only one.

This has been one of the most chaotic coaching carousel seasons in years. Jobs are opening everywhere:

  • Penn State
  • LSU
  • Florida
  • Oklahoma State
  • Arkansas
  • Virginia Tech
  • UCLA
  • Stanford

And that’s just so far.

Florida State and Oklahoma could be next. Maybe others. The competition for top candidates is going to be insane. Top-tier schools like Florida, LSU, and Penn State are in their own tier—massive resources, elite NIL, phenomenal facilities. But even they’re going to have to pay up. Big time.

Agents are salivating.

Salaries are about to get wildly inflated. And how many of these coaches will actually complete their contracts without needing to be bought out? History says not many. But here’s the question nobody wants to ask: Who are these schools actually going to hire?

And that leads to an even more uncomfortable question for programs down the ladder.

If You’re Cal (Or Nevada, Or Louisiana Tech), What Do You Do?

Let’s talk about the schools further down the food chain for a second.

If you’re Cal, what do you do? Justin Wilcox has been there for nine years. No winning seasons since 2019. The program is stuck in mediocrity. Do you fire him and jump into this insane market where every coach’s price just tripled? Do you keep investing in a guy who hasn’t delivered? If you’re Nevada, do you pay the $2.7 million buyout for Jeff Choate and try to compete with Penn State and LSU for the same candidate pool? If you’re Louisiana Tech, do you cut ties with Sonny Cumbie and hope you can find someone better in a market that’s about to be picked clean?

The reality is brutal.

The top jobs are going to snap up the top candidates. Everyone else will be fighting over the scraps. Or they’re going to have to roll the dice on assistant coaches and hope they hit on the next Cignetti. Schools like Vanderbilt, Missouri, Tulane, North Texas, Memphis, Wake Forest, and Boise State have coaches who are prime poaching targets. And they won’t have the money to keep them if the big boys come calling.

It’s a bad year to be a mid-tier program with an up-and-coming coach.

So, Who Is LSU Going to Get That’s Better Than Brian Kelly?

Which brings us back to the biggest question of all.

Think about Kelly’s résumé for a second:

  • Two Division II national championships
  • Took Cincinnati to 11-1 and a top-4 finish
  • Took Notre Dame to two national championship games
  • Ten top-25 finishes at Notre Dame, half of them in the top 10
  • Won 10 games in each of his first two seasons at LSU with top-15 finishes
  • Won 9 games last year
  • On pace for 8 wins this year

That’s not a bad coach.

That’s an excellent coach who didn’t meet LSU’s sky-high expectations. So who’s the upgrade? The names being thrown around: Lane Kiffin, Marcus Freeman, Brent Key, Eli Drinkwitz, Jon Sumrall. Are those guys sure things? Are they going to be infinitely better than Kelly?

Nobody knows.

LSU is about to spend $100 million (or more) buying out Kelly and his staff, then funding a new coaching staff, to get someone who might be better. It’s a massive gamble. Here’s the reality: You’re going to spend probably $100M buying out your previous coaching staff and funding your new one to get someone that isn’t necessarily a sure thing. It’s not like Brian Kelly was going 4-8.

And here’s the kicker.

Unless LSU is bringing back Nick Saban, Chris Petersen, or Urban Meyer from retirement, there isn’t a candidate out there who’s a sure thing. Lane Kiffin is going to make a fortune – either from Ole Miss giving him a massive raise to stay, or from one of these desperate schools throwing ridiculous money at him. Brian Kelly won’t be out of work long. Neither will James Franklin, who Penn State moved on from. They’re outstanding coaches. The problem is they weren’t great enough for programs with championship-or-bust expectations.

And that’s the new reality of college football.

What’s Next?

The carousel is spinning.

Fast. More jobs will open. More coaches will get massive paydays. More schools will regret the contracts they’re about to hand out. In about four years, a lot of these fan bases are going to be asking: “Why did we give him that contract?!”

But right now?

It’s chaos. And LSU is right in the middle of it.

Stay tuned.

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Sonny Cumbie’s 11-26 Record At Louisiana Tech Puts Him At #1 On Coaches Hot Seat Preseason Rankings—Here’s Why

Mark Haines on August 19, 2025

Everyone pretends to be shocked when a coach gets fired after 3 straight losing seasons.

As if the writing wasn’t on the wall the entire time. Louisiana Tech head coach Sonny Cumbie enters his fourth season in 2025 with our hot seat rating of 0.574 (where 1.0 represents meeting expectations and anything below signals mounting pressure) and a .297 winning percentage. Translation: he’s cooked. Done. Finished.

The only question isn’t whether he’ll get fired, but when.

This Was Always Going To Happen

Cumbie took over Louisiana Tech in December 2021 with one selling point: offensive innovation.

This was the guy who was once the highest-paid offensive coordinator in college football at TCU. The air raid genius. The quarterback whisperer. Fast forward to 2024, and he’s giving up play-calling duties four games into the season.

Think about that for a second.

You hire a chef because he makes the world’s best pasta, and then four months later he’s asking someone else to cook the pasta because he can’t figure out the recipe anymore. That’s Sonny Cumbie at Louisiana Tech.

His record speaks for itself:

  • 2022: 3-9
  • 2023: 3-9
  • 2024: 5-8

Three straight losing seasons. The program hasn’t had a winning record since 2019, which means under both Skip Holtz’s final year (3-9) and Cumbie’s entire tenure, Louisiana Tech has been irrelevant.

But here’s where it gets fascinating.

The Defense Got Better, The Offense Got Worse

In 2024, something magical happened on defense.

Louisiana Tech went from allowing 39.2 points per game in 2022 and 33.4 in 2023 to just 21.0 points per game in 2024. They ranked top 3 in Conference USA and top 15 nationally in total defense. Know what Cumbie did? He fired defensive coordinator Scott Power and hired Jeremiah Johnson.

Smart move. Problem solved.

While the defense found its footing, the offense lost its way completely:

  • Yards per game dropped: 392 (2022) to 332.9 (2024)
  • Offensive line couldn’t protect anybody
  • Running game was nonexistent
  • Eventually had to give up play-calling

So he handed the play-calling over to someone else.

Here’s what’s wild about this situation.

Conference USA Should Be Easy Money

You know what Conference USA looks like after realignment?

A watered-down version of its former self. Programs left for better conferences. The competition got weaker. The path to success got clearer. And Louisiana Tech still couldn’t figure it out.

The disappointing numbers tell the story:

  • Conference record in 2024: 4-4
  • Road record under Cumbie: 2-17
  • Bowl appearances: 1 (only because Marshall opted out)

Four and four in conference play. In a league that should theoretically be easier to dominate than ever before. Two wins in 17 road games since taking over.

That’s not bad luck. That’s not external factors. That’s coaching.

Teams that can’t win on the road can’t win when things get uncomfortable. They fold under pressure. They make mistakes at critical moments.

They’re not mentally tough enough to handle adversity.

But There’s More At Stake Than Just Wins And Losses

Here’s where Athletic Director Ryan Ivey found himself in a tough spot.

Cumbie signed a five-year deal worth $4.85 million with a base salary that hit $1 million by 2024. Firing him means:

  • Paying a buyout
  • Paying to hire someone new
  • Paying that new coach a competitive salary

For a program like Louisiana Tech, that’s real money.

But here’s what administrators never want to acknowledge: keeping a losing coach costs more than firing him. Losing seasons mean fewer ticket sales. Fewer donations. Less corporate sponsorship. Lower TV revenue. Decreased enrollment interest.

The financial damage compounds every year you wait.

Louisiana Tech made one bowl game under Cumbie—the 2024 Independence Bowl—and they only got that because Marshall opted out due to transfer portal losses. They lost to Army 27-6. That’s not progress.

That’s charity.

The 2025 Reality Check

CBS Sports ranked Cumbie as the only coach in the “Win or be fired” category with a perfect 5.0 rating from nine expert evaluators.

Translation: everyone who covers college football knows what’s coming. The schedule gives him a chance—manageable Conference USA opponents—but also exposes him to road trips to LSU and Washington State. Given his 2-17 road record, those games look like guaranteed losses.

Even with some positive developments, the challenges are mounting:

  • Defensive improvement shows he can make changes
  • But the offensive line lost key players to the transfer portal
  • Tony Franklin hired as new offensive coordinator
  • Yet history suggests desperation hires rarely work

The offensive line lost Ja’Marion Kennedy to Wake Forest and Zarian McGill to Colorado, which means the unit that was already struggling just got worse.

Here’s the thing about desperation moves.

Why This Matters Beyond Louisiana Tech

College football is brutal.

Coaches get hired based on potential and fired based on results. There’s no participation trophy for “trying hard” or “building culture” when you’re 11-26 over three seasons. Cumbie’s situation represents everything problematic about how programs evaluate coaching hires.

They fell in love with his reputation instead of his results:

  • Assumed past success would automatically translate
  • Ignored warning signs about fit and system
  • Wanted to believe instead of evaluating reality

Louisiana Tech has proud football traditions. Conference championships. Bowl victories. Relevant seasons.

Under Cumbie, they’ve had none of that.

The Bottom Line

Sonny Cumbie is facing near-certain dismissal.

Whether it comes after early setbacks in 2025 or at the season’s end, the odds are stacked against him. The only question is how much damage Louisiana Tech is willing to accept while they delay what appears inevitable.

Because here’s what nobody wants to say out loud: keeping a struggling coach doesn’t protect the program’s future.

It jeopardizes it.

Our hot seat rating of 0.574 for Cumbie isn’t just a number. It’s a warning label. And everyone except the people making decisions seems to understand what it means.

Want to know which coach gets fired next?

You just read the kind of analysis that predicted coaching changes before they happened. While other publications wait for the obvious, we identify the warning signs early.

The Coaches Hot Seat newsletter delivers:

  • Weekly hot seat rankings with data-driven predictions
  • Inside analysis on coaching moves before they’re announced
  • The real financial stories behind hiring and firing decisions
  • Zero fluff, zero access journalism, zero protecting feelings

Because college football moves fast.

And the programs that survive are the ones that see what’s coming next—not the ones caught reacting to what already happened.

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Get the analysis that matters. Before it becomes obvious to everyone else.

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Week 12 Hot Seat Rankings Reveal The New Math of Firing Coaches: When Balance Sheets Trump Box Scores

Mark Haines on November 12, 2024

Graphic by Tony Altimore @TJAltimore on X

When Money Changes Everything: College Football’s New Math

If you want to understand what’s happening in college football right now, forget about the polls, the playoff rankings, and even the win-loss records. Instead, study Tony Altimore’s (@TJAltimore on X) financial visualization of athletic department debt. This document looks less like a sports analysis and more like a hedge fund’s risk assessment of distressed assets. What Altimore has captured, in clean lines and horrifying clarity, is the moment when college football’s financial chickens have come home to roost.

The numbers are staggering enough to make a Wall Street quant nervous. Major athletic departments have the kind of revenue shortfalls that would make a leveraged buyout specialist think twice, all while trying to maintain the facade that their business model isn’t fundamentally broken. Our Hot Seat Rankings arrive in this financial maelstrom, a list that increasingly reads like a collection of toxic assets nobody knows how to value.

Consider the range of buyouts in play: Marshall could rid itself of Charles Huff for the price of a mid-level administrator’s salary ($125,917), while Baylor would need to liquidate the equivalent of a small endowment ($20-25 million) to move on from Dave Aranda. In any rational market, these numbers represent the cost of doing business. But in 2024’s college football economy, where athletic departments are juggling NIL collectives, revenue sharing, the House Settlement, facility arms races, and operational deficits that would make a venture capitalist blanch, even UMass’s relatively modest $800,000 obligation to Don Brown looks less like a buyout and more like a luxury they might not be able to afford.

We’re witnessing the emergence of a new market inefficiency: coaches who become unsackable not through their success but through the financial implications of their failure. In a world where half our Hot Seat candidates owe their job security to their buyout clauses rather than their win percentages, we’ve entered a realm where being too expensive to fire has become its own kind of competitive advantage.

Welcome to college football’s new normal, where balance sheets matter more than playbooks, and the most important numbers aren’t on the scoreboard but in the fine print of contracts that increasingly look like they were designed by derivatives traders rather than athletic directors.

Here’s our Top 10 for this week, plus a little insider information on each:

1. Don Brown – UMass

Don Brown sits atop college football’s hot seat list in a way that perfectly captures the industry’s bias for action over patience. UMass administrators, energized by their MAC invitation and staring at a manageable $800,000 buyout, seem eager to start fresh before the 2025 conference transition. The kind of institutional momentum creates its own gravity – the desire to make a splashy hire before joining a new conference to signal ambition and commitment to a brighter future. But there’s a fascinating market inefficiency at play here that nobody’s talking about: Brown might be the rare coach whose value to the program is about to increase precisely when they’re most inclined to remove him. His decades of MAC experience as a defensive coordinator at Central Michigan and Connecticut (during its MAC era) and his deep New England recruiting roots represent institutional knowledge that money can’t easily buy. UMass is preparing to make a classic institutional mistake: paying to remove expertise they’ll need to acquire again, all in service of a fresh start that might not be as fresh as they imagine. After all, the next coach will face the same fundamental challenges – navigating one more year of independence before transitioning to the MAC – with less experience in both contexts.

2. Charles Huff – Marshall

Huff’s position has improved slightly with a recent win, but he is in year 4 of a 5-year contract, and his small $125,917 buyout means Marshall could make a change without significant financial strain. His hot seat status remains high, though the recent win may have bought him some time.

3. Stan Drayton – Temple

This week, a 52 – 6 loss to Tulane has intensified the pressure on Drayton. With no specified buyout disclosed, Temple might have flexibility in making a coaching change if they decide to go that route. The program’s struggles in the American Athletic Conference likely contribute to his hot seat status.

4. Trent Dilfer – UAB

Dilfer’s hot seat status has worsened with another loss. His $4,116,667 buyout is significant for UAB, which might give him more time. However, his unusual comments, media interactions, and poor on-field results have quickly put him in a precarious position despite being only in his second year.

5. Dave Aranda – Baylor

Despite a bye week, Aranda remains on the hot seat. His substantial $20-25 million buyout is a major factor in Baylor’s decision-making process. Recent wins have improved his standing, and there’s an industry consensus that he’s trending towards returning in 2025, partly due to the financial implications of a coaching change.

6. Sam Pittman – Arkansas

Sam Pittman moves down to #6 on our Hot Seat Rankings in what might be college football’s most emotionally complicated coaching situation. He’s the kind of figure who makes fans want to invite him over for dinner while simultaneously wanting to throw their remote through the TV during games. His Arkansas team has shown improvement this year, but in a way that feels like watching a gifted student consistently turn in C+ work – there’s something both promising and maddening about it all. The blowout loss to Ole Miss exposed the fundamental disconnect: a team with SEC talent playing with the discipline of a midnight pickup game. And here’s where it gets interesting – and credit to Jackson Collier of the Hardwood Hogs Podcast (@JCHoops on X) for surfacing a contract provision that adds another layer to this Southern football soap opera: If Pittman can scrape together seven wins between Louisiana Tech and one more victory (including a potential bowl game), he triggers an automatic raise and extension. It’s the kind of clause that transforms Arkansas’s $10 million buyout decision from merely expensive to existentially complex. The boosters’ dilemma is almost Shakespearean: How do you fire someone everyone likes who’s making the team better but not as much better as it should be? Especially when the cost of doing so keeps threatening to go up?

7. Sonny Cumbie – Louisiana Tech

A loss this week has likely increased the pressure on Cumbie. With a $1,625,000 buyout, Louisiana Tech has some flexibility if it chooses to make a change. The program’s performance in Conference USA will determine his future.

8. Kevin Wilson – Tulsa

Wilson’s first season at Tulsa has been challenging, but a recent comeback win against UTSA may have improved his standing. His buyout details aren’t specified, but Tulsa’s financial situation and patience with new coaches could influence his job security.

9. Ryan Walters – Purdue

Despite the most recent 45-0 loss to Ohio State, reports suggest Walters is expected to get more time at Purdue. His $9,590,625 buyout and the administration’s recognition of NIL challenges in the Big Ten could provide him additional job security despite the team’s struggles this season.

10. Hugh Freeze – Auburn

Freeze’s $20,312,500 buyout is a significant factor in his job security. Auburn’s recent performance and Freeze’s past success at Ole Miss are considerations. While he’s on the hot seat, the financial implications of a coaching change might give him more time to turn the program around.

What’s your take? Let us know here

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Week 7 – Hot Seat Rankings Overview

Mark Haines on October 8, 2024

In college football’s high-stakes arena, where multimillion-dollar decisions hinge on the outcome of a single play, a silent countdown ticks away. We’re approaching the season’s midpoint, that critical juncture where athletic directors start crunching numbers that have nothing to do with touchdowns or field goals.

Welcome to this week’s Coaches Hot Seat Rankings, where we peel back the curtain on the beautifully absurd world of college football economics.

Forget win-loss records for a moment (though they’re the fuel that feeds this fire). Forget rivalry games and conference standings (the kindling, if you will). Today, we’re diving headfirst into the labyrinthine world of contract buyouts—those golden parachutes that can turn a simple firing into a financial apocalypse.

We’ve identified the top 5 coaches whose seats aren’t just hot—they’re scorching. But here’s the twist: their fates aren’t sealed by X’s and O’s alone. No, these men are trapped in a game where the final score is tallied not on a scoreboard but in a boardroom.

1. Dave Aranda – Baylor

The whispers in the autumn air swirled like fallen leaves in Waco, carrying the weight of a season teetering on the brink. Twenty million dollars. That’s what the murmurs said it would cost Baylor to part ways with their enigmatic head coach, Dave Aranda, had they yielded to the mounting pressure after last season’s disappointment. Of course, Baylor shrouded in the Baptist mists of private university secrecy, keeps its coffers as close to the vest as its playbook. But let’s just say, with a contract stretching all the way to 2029, sixteen million – at the very least – is a reasonable guess.

Now, picture this: a coach, lauded as a defensive genius, finds himself at 2-4, staring down the barrel of a must-win scenario. Six games remain, and the magic number is six wins to secure bowl eligibility, a seemingly simple feat for a man who once orchestrated defenses that could suffocate the life out of the most potent offenses. But the gridiron gods are fickle, and the past two seasons have been a harsh reminder that even the best-laid plans can crumble beneath the weight of expectation.

The word on the street, from those who claim to know the inner workings of the Baylor machine, is this: a bowl game is no longer just a desire, it’s a necessity. Aranda, the stoic philosopher-coach, stands at a crossroads, his back against the wall with the clock ticking relentlessly. Can he summon the magic that once propelled him to the mountaintop, leading the Bears to a Big 12 Championship and a Sugar Bowl victory in 2021? Or will the weight of that hefty contract and the mounting pressure of a 2-4 record prove too much to bear?

The answer, my friends, lies hidden in the swirling chaos of the remaining six games. And like any good mystery, we’ll all be watching with bated breath, wondering if Aranda can pull off a miracle in Waco or if this is the beginning of the end.

2. Billy Napier – Florida

The air in Gainesville crackles with the electricity of a fanbase on the verge. It’s not just the humidity; it’s the palpable tension surrounding Billy Napier and his Florida Gators. A 2-3 start, a record as muggy and unpredictable as a Florida summer, has the Swamp simmering with a potent mix of frustration and fear. Napier, the supposed architect of a Gator renaissance, now finds himself staring down the jaws of a $28 million buyout, a figure that could make even the most die-hard booster reach for the smelling salts.

Jimmy Sexton, Napier’s agent and a man who could negotiate a raise out of a pauper, crafted a deal that would make Scrooge McDuck blush. Eighty-five percent of the remaining contract value, a cool $27,996,875 to be exact, is owed to Napier should the Gators decide to cut bait. And let’s be clear: in the win-or-else world of SEC football, where patience is as rare as a sober Saturday night in the Swamp, that kind of financial commitment can feel like an anvil around the neck of a struggling program.

Now, picture this: a coach, once hailed as the next big thing, wading through the murky waters of mediocrity. The ghosts of Spurrier and Meyer loom large, their championship rings glinting like hungry alligator eyes, reminding everyone of a bygone era of Gator dominance. But the present reality bites: 14-18 under Napier, with the echoes of those agonizing losses reverberating through the stadium.

The whispers in the Swamp are reaching a fever pitch, fueled by the anxiety of a fanbase yearning for a return to glory. “Twenty-eight million,” they murmur, the number hanging like Spanish moss. It’s a fortune, a sum that could buy a whole lot of orange and blue Kool-Aid, enough to drown out the sour taste of another lost season. But is it worth it? Is Napier’s methodical approach and unwavering faith in “the process” the right man to lead the Gators back to the promised land? Or is this another expensive experiment gone wrong, a cautionary tale of misplaced hope and exorbitant buyouts?

Seven games remain. Seven chances for Napier to rewrite the narrative, to silence the doubters, and to justify that eye-popping price tag. Once a cauldron of unbridled enthusiasm, the Swamp now simmers with a volatile mix of anticipation and dread. Will Napier rise to the occasion, or will he become another victim of the relentless meat grinder that is SEC football? The clock is ticking, the stakes are high, and the fate of the Gators hangs in the balance.

3. Will Hall – Southern Mississippi

The air in Hattiesburg is thick with tension, heavier than the humidity that hangs over the Mississippi pines. Will Hall, the hometown hero supposed to lead Southern Miss back to the promised land, finds himself on the precipice. A dismal 1-4 start has the Golden Eagles teetering on the brink of another lost season, and with just six games left on the schedule, Hall’s coaching career at his alma mater hangs by a thread.

Remember the fanfare when Hall arrived? He is a conquering hero with a shiny new contract and a 60% raise over his predecessor. Hope and optimism filled the air, a belief that this Southern Miss boy could restore the program to its former glory. Now, that contract is about to expire, and the only thing shining brighter than Hall’s initial promise is the exit sign.

$800,000 a year. That’s what Southern Miss invested in Will Hall—a significant sum for a program trying to claw its way back to relevance. But in the ruthless world of college football, where wins are the only legal tender, that salary is starting to look like a sunk cost.

And here’s the cold, hard truth: there’s no safety net. No hefty buyout to cushion the fall. If Southern Miss decides Hall isn’t the man for the job, they can show him the door at the end of the season, no strings attached. No messy divorce, no multi-million dollar payout. Just a handshake and a “thanks for your time.”

The whispers in the stands are getting louder with every loss. “One and four,” they murmur, the words echoing through the empty seats at M.M. Roberts Stadium. “Can he even make it to the end of the season?” they wonder, their voices filled with pity and resignation.

Six games. Six games to save his job. There are six opportunities for Will Hall to rewrite the narrative and prove he’s not just another overhyped coaching casualty. Six chances to silence the doubters and earn a contract extension, or pack his bags and head back to the drawing board. The clock is ticking, the pressure is relentless, and the future of Southern Miss football hangs in the balance. Can Will Hall pull off a miracle and salvage his career in Hattiesburg, or will these be his final six games leading the Golden Eagles? The answer, my friends, is blowing in the Mississippi wind.

4. Sonny Cumbie – Lousiana Tech

The buzz around Sonny Cumbie’s arrival in Ruston has faded faster than a Louisiana sunset. The high-flying offensive guru, lured to Louisiana Tech with a five-year, $4.85 million contract, finds himself grounded with a disappointing 1-3 start. Eight games remain in the season, and the whispers are starting to swirl: is Cumbie already on the hot seat?

$900,000. That’s what Louisiana Tech is shelling out for Cumbie this year, a figure that escalates to a cool million over the final three years of his deal. They even sweetened the pot with a $1.4 million pool for his assistants, hoping to build a coaching powerhouse in the heart of Cajun country. But with the Bulldogs sputtering out of the gate, that investment is starting to look like a risky proposition.

Cumbie’s contract is littered with incentives – bonuses for conference championships, bowl game appearances, and even boosting the team GPA. But right now, those incentives seem about as attainable as a snowball fight in July. The Bulldogs need a dramatic turnaround, and they need it fast, or those hefty bonuses will remain untouched like a forgotten bowl of gumbo.

And what about that buyout? If Louisiana Tech decides to cut ties with Cumbie, they’re on the hook for 75% of his remaining salary. It’s a hefty sum, but not impossible, especially if the Bulldogs continue their downward spiral. Will the administration pull the trigger or give Cumbie more time to prove himself?

The pressure is mounting in Ruston. The fans, accustomed to winning seasons and bowl game appearances, are growing restless. “One and three,” they mutter, the words hanging heavy in the humid air. “Is this all we get for $4.85 million?” they wonder, their voices filled with disappointment and frustration.

Eight games. Eight games for Sonny Cumbie to turn things around, silence the doubters, and justify that hefty price tag. Eight opportunities to prove he’s the offensive mastermind Louisiana Tech thought they were getting, or become another casualty in the high-stakes world of college football. The clock is ticking, the stakes are high, and the future of the Bulldogs hangs in the balance. Can Cumbie orchestrate a comeback, or will his time in Ruston be cut short? Only time will tell.

5. Trent Dilfer – Alabama Birmingham

UAB - Auburn

Attendance was sparse at the last UAB football game on October 5, 2024

They say hindsight is 20/20, but in the case of Trent Dilfer and UAB, it felt more like a train wreck in slow motion. The former Super Bowl-winning quarterback, with his ESPN pedigree and high school coaching success, was supposed to be the savior of Blazers football. Instead, he’s become a $3.6 million cautionary tale.

Remember the hype? Dilfer, the brash outsider with a big personality, would shake things up in Birmingham. He would bring national attention to a program that had clawed its way back from the dead. But now, two seasons in, the only thing he’s shaking up is the antacid aisle at the local pharmacy.

A dismal 1-4 start to the season, including a 71-20 drubbing at the hands of Tulane, has the Blazers faithful calling for Dilfer’s head. His off-the-field antics—comparing UAB to Alabama, criticizing NIL, and even taking shots at the volleyball team—haven’t endeared him to the fanbase either.

And then there’s that contract—$1.2 million a year, with a $3.6 million buyout if he’s fired after this season. That’s a lot of money to eat, even for a program that’s seen its share of financial struggles. But at this point, it might be cheaper to cut their losses and move on.

The whispers in the stands have turned into full-blown shouting matches. “Dilfer out!” they chant, their voices echoing through the half-empty stadium. “This experiment has failed!” they declare, their patience worn thinner than a cheap game-day t-shirt.

It’s hard to argue with them. Dilfer’s record at UAB is a dismal 5-12. He’s alienated the fans, the players, and even some folks on campus. His “springboard job” has turned into a quicksand pit, and he’s sinking fast.

So, what now? Does UAB bite the bullet and pay the $3.6 million buyout? Do they try to salvage something from this disastrous experiment and hope for a miraculous turnaround? Or do they simply let the season play out and send Dilfer packing with a handshake and a “don’t let the door hit you on the way out”?

The clock is ticking, the pressure is mounting, and the future of UAB football hangs in the balance. One thing’s for sure: the Trent Dilfer era in Birmingham can’t end soon enough.

See where your coach falls on the Coaches Hot Seat.

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The Coaching Carousel: A Wild Ride of Buyouts, Bargains, and Burnt Biscuits

Mark Haines on October 1, 2024

Hefty Buyouts Await 4 of Our Top 5

Let’s go on a whirlwind tour of the college football coaching carousel, where the stakes are high, the contracts are crazy, and the pressure is hotter than a two-dollar pistol. We’re talkin’ buyouts that could make your head spin, fan bases ready to revolt, and coaches clinging to their jobs like a possum to a persimmon tree.

First Stop: Gainesville, Florida

Picture this: The Swamp, home of the Florida Gators, where the humidity rivals the pressure to win, and the athletic department operates like it’s stuck in a time warp. We’re talkin’ Windows 95 computers, flip phones, and a fax machine that’s practically considered cutting-edge technology.

Now, enter Billy Napier, stage left, with a seven-year, $50 million contract and a dream to restore the Gators to their former glory. The problem is that dreams don’t always translate to touchdowns, especially when you’re battling more than just your opponents.

Napier, bless his heart, he’s got the pedigree. Came down from Louisiana with a winning record, a folksy charm, and a playbook thicker than a Faulkner novel. But the SEC? It’s a different animal. It’s where good coaches go to get chewed up and spit out, their reputations left to bake on the asphalt like a forgotten lovebug.

And right now, Napier’s feeling the heat. His record? A less-than-stellar 13-16 (.448) The boosters? They’re restless, pacing the sidelines like caged panthers, their wallets bulging with buyout money. We’re talking $27.7 million to show Napier the door. That’s enough to buy every player on the roster a personalized yacht with a Gatorade fountain on deck and maybe even upgrade the athletic department’s internet to broadband while they’re at it.

But here’s the catch: even if they send Napier packing with a golden parachute, it won’t fix the root of the problem. This isn’t just about the coach, folks. It’s about a whole system that’s stuck in the dark ages. It’s about an athletic department that’s more concerned with balancing the budget on an abacus than building a winning program.

So, what’s the play? Do the Gators cut their losses and write a check that’d make your eyes water? Or do they finally face the music and realize that a complete overhaul is needed, from the coaching staff to the IT department? Because in the SEC, honey, there’s no middle ground. You either evolve or get left behind, fossilized like a prehistoric gator in the swamp of mediocrity.

Next Up: Waco, Texas

Now, let’s move on over to Waco, Texas, where the Baylor Bears are facing a dilemma of biblical proportions. Their head coach, Dave Aranda, is a man of few words and even fewer wins lately. Remember that magical 2021 season? Big 12 champs, Sugar Bowl victors, the whole nine yards? Since then, it’s been more like “the whole nine losses,” and the fans are starting to sound like a swarm of angry bees.

Aranda, see, he’s a defensive mastermind. The kind of guy who can draw up a blitz package that’d make your head spin faster than a Texas tornado. But lately, his offense has been about as exciting as watching paint dry in the Waco sun. And those wins? Well, they’ve been harder to come by than a parking spot at the Silos on a Saturday afternoon. It is so hard to come by that the once-packed McLane Stadium is starting to look like a ghost town.

Now, here’s where it gets interesting. As a private institution, Baylor keeps its finances tighter than a drum. So, we don’t know the exact details of Aranda’s contract. But rumor has it, his buyout is a cool $20 million. That’s enough to buy a lifetime supply of Dr Pepper for every student on campus and still have enough left over to build a replica of the Alamo… with heated seats.

But here’s the thing: it’s not just about the money. The Baylor faithful are losing their patience. They’re tired of watching their beloved Bears get mauled week after week. The grumbling in the stands has turned into a full-blown roar, and the pitchforks are practically at the door of Aranda’s office.

So, the question is: do the Bears bite the bullet and pay Aranda a king’s ransom to walk away? Or do they stick with him, hoping he can rediscover that 2021 magic and silence the angry mob? It’s a tough call, folks. Aranda’s a good guy and a solid coach. But in the cutthroat world of college football, nice guys often finish last… and get handed a hefty severance package on their way out the door, accompanied by the boos of a disgruntled fanbase.

The pressure’s on in Waco. Will the Bears double down on Aranda or cut their losses? Only time will tell. But one thing’s for sure: this is one expensive game of Texas Hold’em, and Baylor’s holding a pair of deuces with a fanbase threatening to burn the whole casino down.

Rolling into Fayetteville

Next, we’re headed to Fayetteville, Arkansas, where the Razorbacks are wrestling with a problem that’s stranger than a hog in a tuxedo. Their head coach, Sam Pittman, is a good ol’ boy with a heart of gold and a drawl thicker than molasses. He would invite you over for a barbecue, regale you with stories about his playing days, and then send you home with a Tupperware full of leftovers. But right now, those leftovers might be all he’s got left to give.

See, Pittman’s currently sitting at a 26-27 record (.491), which is about as comfortable as a pair of overalls in a sauna. And that record has got the whole state of Arkansas sweating bullets because it’s tied to this “goofy” buyout clause in his contract that’s got everyone scratching their heads. If the Razorbacks decide to give him the boot, the amount they owe him depends on whether that record tips above or below .500. Above? A cool $12.15 million. Below? A slightly less cool $8.1 million. It’s like a bizarre game show where the prize is getting fired, and the consolation prize is still a mountain of cash.

Now, Pittman started strong. In 2021, he had the Hogs squealing with delight, leading them to a 9-4 season and a Top 25 finish. But lately? The wheels have come off the tractor, and the Razorbacks are wallowing in mediocrity. They’re teetering on that .500 mark, like a tightrope walker with a fear of heights and a hefty life insurance policy.

So, what’s a university to do? Do they pay Pittman $12 million to hit the road, or do they gamble on him turning things around and potentially saving themselves a few million bucks? It’s a high-stakes poker game, folks, and the pot is sweetened with a side of Southern-fried absurdity.

The pressure’s on in Fayetteville. Will the Razorbacks ante up and send Pittman packing with a golden handshake? Or will they hold their cards and hope for a winning hand? Only time will tell. But one thing’s for sure: this is one wild ride, and the only thing crazier than the buyout clause is that we’re all glued to our seats, waiting to see how it all plays out.

Down South with the Golden Eagles

Now, let’s dive headfirst into the chaotic world of Southern Miss football, where the Golden Eagles are flapping their wings a little too close to the flames. Their head coach, Will Hall, is a man with a fiery spirit, a four-year contract ticking down faster than a Mississippi minute, and an offense sputtering like a lawnmower on its last legs.

Hall inked that deal in 2020, promising him a cool $800,000 yearly. Not bad, right? But here’s where it gets interesting: this is the FINAL ACT, folks. The last year of that contract. Which means that buyout everyone was sweating about? It’s practically evaporated faster than a puddle of sweat on a Hattiesburg sidewalk.

Instead of millions, we’re talkin’ chump change. A couple of hundred grand, maybe even less. Suddenly, those Golden Eagles administrators look like they have stumbled onto a Black Friday sale on coaches.

But here’s the twist: this isn’t an ordinary clearance rack. This is Will Hall, a coach with the passion of a thousand suns but a colder record than a Mississippi winter. Turnovers? They’re happening faster than you can say “To The Top!” Third-down conversions? They’re about as rare as winning lottery tickets in Hattiesburg.

And the fans? They’re restless. They’re tired of watching their beloved Eagles lay eggs on the field. The grumbling in the stands is reaching a fever pitch, and Hall’s seat is the only thing hotter than the Mississippi humidity. With each loss, that four-year contract isn’t just a ticking time bomb; it’s a firecracker about to explode in his face.

So, what’s the play? Do the Golden Eagles say, “Hey, for this price, might as well let him ride it out,” or do they decide a change is needed NOW, consequences be damned? It’s a high-stakes poker game with the whole program’s future on the line.

Hall’s gotta win and win BIG to save his job. The Golden Eagles must decide if they will gamble on a Hail Mary or if it’s time to cut their losses and start fresh. Either way, this final act will be one hell of a show.

The Sonny Cumbie Quandary: Louisiana Tech’s $1 Million Gamble (Or Is It a Million-Dollar Headache?)

Let’s sashay over to Ruston, Louisiana, where the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs face a stickier predicament than a bowl of gumbo gone wrong. Their head coach, Sonny Cumbie, is a young gun with a five-year contract that, on paper, seemed like a steal. But with the Bulldogs barking up the wrong tree lately, that contract’s starting to look more like a financial albatross.

Cumbie signed on the dotted line back in 2021, agreeing to a $4.85 million deal that would pay him a cool $1 million in 2024. It’s not a bad payday for a coach trying to make his mark in college football. But here’s where it gets interesting: if Louisiana Tech decides to give him the boot, they’re on the hook for 75% of that remaining salary.

You might be thinking, “75% of a million bucks? That’s a hefty chunk of change!” And you’d be right. But here’s the twist: that million dollars is spread out over the remaining years of his contract, which runs through January 2027. So, we’re not talking about a single lump sum payment that’d break the bank. It’s more like a series of installments on a slightly overpriced used pickup truck.

But here’s the real kicker: Cumbie’s got this contract loaded with incentives. Win the Conference USA championship? Bonus cash! Lead the Bulldogs to a bowl game? More money! Boost the team’s GPA? Cha-ching! It’s like a college football version of “Who Wants to Be a Millionaire,” except the lifelines are touchdowns, and academic probation is the equivalent of losing all your money.

So, the question is: do the Bulldogs cut their losses and pay Cumbie a modest sum to walk away? Or do they stick with him, hoping he can turn things around and cash in on those sweet incentives? It’s a gamble, folks. Cumbie’s got potential, but potential doesn’t always translate to wins on the scoreboard.

The pressure’s on in Ruston. Will the Bulldogs roll the dice on Cumbie and hope for a winning hand? Or will they fold and start fresh with a new coach and strategy?

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The Huddle’s Getting Tense: Week 5’s Hottest Seats Revealed

Mark Haines on September 24, 2024

1. Billy Napier – Florida Gators

First Win, Same Old Problems

Napier finally got a W, but let’s not kid ourselves. Mississippi State was fresh off a loss to Toledo. Florida’s offense looked better, but it was more about Mississippi State’s defensive scheme than Napier’s brilliance.

And the defense? Yikes. Soft zones, missed tackles, and a general sense of panic against an up-tempo offense. If Mississippi State can shred them, imagine what UCF or Tennessee will do.

The 17-point margin is deceptive. This game was a nail-biter until the final minutes.

Nick Saban’s comments on GameDay cut to the heart of the matter. He wasn’t pointing fingers at the coaches but rather at the administration. Florida’s had a revolving door of coaches since the glory days of Spurrier and Meyer. Saban suggested that perhaps the issue lies in the athletic department and the university’s commitment to providing the resources and support necessary for sustained success. It takes more than just hiring a good coach; it takes a culture of winning that permeates the entire program. Gator Nation needs to understand that the solution might lie beyond the sidelines. When this job opens up again, Florida’s administration needs to be ready to demonstrate a real commitment to building a championship program if they want to attract a top-tier coach. Right now, this isn’t a very attractive job.

2. Dave Aranda – Baylor Bears

A Heartbreaking Loss, But a Glimmer of Hope

Baylor’s loss to Colorado was a gut punch, a nightmare finish that will haunt them for weeks. A last-second touchdown, a fumble at the goal line, and a season’s worth of hope seemingly slipping away. But let’s not write the obituary for Aranda’s Bears just yet.

This Baylor team is different. They’re improved, tougher, and more resilient than the squads of recent years. Even in defeat, there were signs of promise. The defense harassed Shedeur Sanders all game, the offense showed flashes of explosiveness, and there was a sense of competence that’s been missing for too long.

The Big 12 is wide open this year, and Baylor’s season is far from over. But the margin for error is razor-thin. Aranda’s known for his defensive prowess, but he needs to find a way to ignite the offense and clean up the special teams miscues. The 2021 championship season feels like a distant memory, and the pressure is mounting.

Aranda’s a good man, well-liked and respected within the athletic department and university administration. But the fickle winds of fan sentiment can change quickly. In the cutthroat world of college football, patience is a rare commodity. He’s got the talent on the roster, but can he mold it into a winning team fast enough to appease the restless Baylor faithful? The next few weeks will be crucial. Aranda’s talking about getting his team’s heart back in its body. He better hope they find it, and quickly, because another losing season could spell the end of his tenure in Waco, regardless of the support he has behind the scenes.

3. Sam Pittman – Arkansas Razorbacks

Riding High, But Challenges Ahead

Sam Pittman and his Razorbacks are flying high after a gritty win over Auburn. TJ Metcalf was the hero, snagging two picks and playing a role in four of Auburn’s five turnovers. It was a defensive masterpiece, especially considering Arkansas’ offense was held well below its usual explosive output.

But amidst the celebration, there’s a cloud hanging over Fayetteville. The indefinite suspension of running back Rashod Dubinion for violating team rules is a blow to an already thin backfield. Dubinion was expected to be a key contributor this season, and his absence will be felt. The Hogs also struggle with discipline and execution, showing flashes of sloppiness that could cost them dearly against more formidable opponents.

Pittman’s got this team playing with grit and determination, but the road ahead is challenging. The SEC is a meat grinder, and Arkansas will need to find a way to replace Dubinion’s production and clean up their mistakes if they want to keep winning. The defense is playing lights out, but the offense needs to find its rhythm.

The Hogs are 3-1 and feeling good, but the real tests are yet to come. Can Pittman keep this team focused and motivated? Can they overcome the loss of Dubinion and their self-inflicted wounds? And can they continue to defy expectations in the toughest conference in college football?

The answers to these questions will determine whether Arkansas is a legitimate contender or just another flash in the pan. Pittman’s got them believing, but the hard work is just beginning.

4. Will Hall – Southern Miss Golden Eagles

Sinking Deeper

The Golden Eagles are in freefall. A historically bad loss to Jacksonville State, a winless team, has Southern Miss reeling. Six turnovers, a benched quarterback, and a freshman thrown into the fire. It’s a mess.

The offense is sputtering, the defense is porous, and the pressure is mounting on Will Hall. This is his fourth year, and the results are dismal. A 1-3 start, a daunting conference slate, and a quarterback situation in shambles.

Hall’s talking a big game, but the reality on the field is bleak. He’s on the hot seat, and the clock is ticking. The next few weeks will be crucial. Can he rally the troops and salvage this season? Or will Southern Miss continue its downward spiral?

Hall’s roster has talent, but execution is lacking. The turnovers, missed opportunities, and lack of discipline all add up to a recipe for disaster. The fans are restless, and the administration is undoubtedly taking notice.

Hall’s future at Southern Miss hangs in the balance. He needs to find answers, and he needs to find them fast. The Sun Belt is unforgiving, and the Golden Eagles are in danger of being left behind.

5. Sonny Cumbie – Louisiana Tech Bulldogs

Ticking Clock in Ruston

Louisiana Tech’s loss to Tulsa was a heartbreaker, a game they could have won. A controversial fumble call in overtime robbed them of a victory, and the Bulldogs now sit at 1-2 on the season.

Sonny Cumbie’s seat is getting hotter by the day. He was brought in to replace Skip Holtz, but he hasn’t even matched Holtz’s worst season. The offense is inconsistent, the quarterback situation is unsettled, and the wins aren’t coming.

The talent is there, but the results aren’t. Cumbie needs to find a way to get this team playing to its potential. The fans are growing restless, and the program’s key stakeholders are taking notice.

Time is running out for Cumbie. He needs to find a spark, a winning formula, and he needs to find it fast. The Bulldogs have a proud tradition, but right now, they’re adrift. Cumbie must prove he’s the man to lead them back to glory, or he’ll be looking for a new job sooner rather than later.

See where your coach lands on the full list of 134 FBS coaches

To access the complete list of 134 FBS Head Coaches, click here:https://coacheshotseat.com/#rank

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