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Michigan football stands at a critical turning point that will define the program’s trajectory for years.

Mark Haines on May 20, 2025

As spring practice concludes in Ann Arbor, the Michigan Wolverines find themselves at a fascinating crossroads.

Following a rollercoaster 2024 campaign that ended with an 8-5 record, second-year head coach Sherrone Moore faces the challenge of recapturing the program’s championship form while integrating a wealth of new talent and implementing significant schematic changes.

The 2024 season will be remembered as a tale of two halves:

  • A disappointing 5-5 start that had fans questioning the program’s direction
  • Stunning upsets over No. 2 Ohio State (13-10) and No. 11 Alabama (19-13) to close the year
  • Michigan is the only program to defeat Alabama twice in one calendar year
  • A late-season surge that injected renewed optimism into a program that had struggled with consistency

These dramatic season-ending victories completely transformed the narrative around Michigan football heading into 2025.

Michigan’s 2025 campaign will hinge on how quickly the offense can develop around its new quarterback and whether the defense can maintain its late-2024 form. The program’s trajectory remains positive, but the margin for error in a tougher Big Ten is slim.

Have you ever seen a program pin its entire hopes on the shoulders of an 18-year-old quarterback?

All eyes in Ann Arbor are fixed on five-star freshman quarterback Bryce Underwood, the No. 1 overall recruit in the 2025 class and the highest-rated signee in Michigan history.

Underwood’s arrival represents both immense opportunity and significant pressure. The dual-threat signal-caller is widely expected to start immediately despite his youth. His elite talent brings an electricity to Michigan that the program desperately needs after a disappointing offensive showing in 2024.

What makes Underwood’s situation different from other freshman quarterbacks?

  • He joins a program just one year removed from a national championship
  • Michigan’s passing attack ranked a dismal 131st nationally in 2024 (129.1 yards per game)
  • Experienced transfer Mikey Keene (Fresno State/UCF) provides insurance and mentorship
  • Most analysts expect Underwood to win the starting job immediately

“The quarterback situation is widely viewed as the key to Michigan’s 2025 ceiling,” according to the program’s internal analysis. “If Underwood adapts quickly and the offense improves, Michigan could contend for a Big Ten title and a playoff spot.”

Rarely has a true freshman quarterback shouldered such immediate expectations at a blue-blood program.

Michigan’s offense underwent a complete metamorphosis following one of the worst passing attacks in program history.

The offensive struggles that plagued Michigan in 2024 (113th nationally in scoring at 22.0 points per game) prompted significant changes, beginning with the arrival of new offensive coordinator Chip Lindsey from North Carolina.

Lindsey’s arrival marks a philosophical shift in Ann Arbor. His track record shows a commitment to balanced, explosive attacks. His 2023 UNC offense was one of only two nationally to average at least 290 passing yards and 190 rushing yards per game, showcasing his ability to create dynamic, unpredictable offensive systems.

The early returns from spring practice are promising:

  • Sophomore receiver Semaj Morgan called the new system “night and day” compared to last year’s approach
  • The new scheme emphasizes more wide receiver sets instead of heavy, predictable formations
  • Greater route diversity and vertical passing concepts create more explosive play opportunities
  • Running backs will be more involved in the passing game, creating mismatches

Supporting the passing game renaissance are new weapons with size and athleticism:

  • 6-5 freshman Jamar Browder brings contested-catch ability
  • Indiana transfer Donovan McCulley (also 6-5) adds experienced size
  • Jordan Marshall (who starred in the Alabama bowl victory) returns in the backfield
  • Alabama transfer Justice Haynes joins to form a powerful one-two punch at running back

While returning experienced pieces like Giovanni El-Hadi, the offensive line must improve its consistency to protect Underwood and establish the physical run game that remains central to Michigan’s identity.

Five-star freshman Andrew Babalola and borderline five-star Ty Haywood could push for early playing time and inject immediate talent into this critical unit.

While the offense rebuilds, Michigan’s defense remains the program’s unshakeable foundation.

While the offense undergoes reconstruction, Michigan’s defense is poised to remain among the nation’s elite.

The 2024 unit allowed just 19.9 points per game (4th nationally) and held opponents to 3.1 yards per rush, showcasing the physical, suffocating style that has become the program’s calling card. Wink Martindale returns for his second season as defensive coordinator after engineering late-season masterpieces against Ohio State and Alabama that saved Michigan’s season.

What makes this defense special despite losing key pieces to the NFL?

  • The front seven projects to be especially formidable with returning stalwarts Rayshaun Benny, Derrick Moore, Jaishawn Barham, and Ernest Hausmann
  • Despite losing unanimous All-American Mason Graham, the defensive line boasts significant depth and talent.
  • While younger and less experienced, the secondary will rely on developing stars and incoming freshmen like four-star signees Shamari Earls, Elijah Dotson, and Kainoa Winston.
  • Coaching continuity in Martindale’s NFL-derived scheme provides a critical foundation.

Michigan’s defensive identity perfectly complements the program’s physical ethos and should keep the Wolverines competitive even through potential offensive growing pains early in the season.

The defense isn’t just good—it’s championship caliber.

Never underestimate the impact of elite special teams in a season defined by tight margins.

Michigan’s special teams unit, anchored by returning All-American kicker Dominic Zvada, is often overlooked but is critically important to its success.

In 2024, Zvada converted an exceptional 21 of 22 field goals (95.5%) and 26 of 27 extra points (96.3%), providing reliability in close games and a consistent weapon when the offense stalled in the red zone. His clutch performances in the Ohio State and Alabama victories underscored his value to the program.

Beyond the kicking game, Michigan’s special teams provide additional advantages:

  • The return game features explosive options in sophomores Semaj Morgan and Jordan Marshall
  • These playmakers add another dimension to Michigan’s ability to flip field position
  • Strong special teams can create scoring opportunities when the offense struggles
  • In a conference with narrow margins, special teams excellence can be the difference between victory and defeat

Michigan’s emphasis on special teams excellence reflects the program’s attention to detail and commitment to winning in all three game phases.

The 2025 schedule presents a gauntlet that would challenge even the most experienced teams.

Any assessment of Michigan’s 2025 outlook must account for a challenging schedule that offers few reprieves.

Early road tests at Oklahoma (September 6) and Nebraska (September 20) will immediately test Underwood’s development and the team’s ability to execute in hostile environments. The conference slate includes road games at USC and Michigan State, home contests against Washington and a season finale with archrival Ohio State.

What makes this schedule particularly daunting:

  • No consecutive home games appear anywhere on the schedule
  • The constant home/away alternation complicates recovery and momentum
  • Early road tests come before the team has fully established its identity
  • Four of Michigan’s opponents are projected preseason top 25 teams
  • The Ohio State finale comes after a long, grueling season

CBS Sports projects an 8-4 record for the Wolverines, citing roster turnover and the difficult schedule as primary factors. This conservative projection reflects the reality that even talented teams often struggle with consistency when facing elite competition week after week.

Navigating this schedule successfully would validate Michigan’s talent and coaching in a way that would resonate nationally.

For Coach Sherrone Moore, 2025 isn’t just another season—it’s the ultimate referendum on his leadership.

For Coach Sherrone Moore, 2025 represents a critical proving ground defining his tenure at Michigan.

While his job is secure following the program’s strong finish to 2024 and recruiting success (the 2025 class ranked No. 6 nationally), expectations have risen significantly. Moore ranks 14th out of 18 Big Ten coaches in USA Today’s 2025 rankings, reflecting skepticism about his inexperience despite his impressive recruiting wins.

The challenge is multifaceted:

  • Moore must establish his own identity separate from Jim Harbaugh’s legacy
  • His offensive coordinator hire (Chip Lindsey) represents a significant philosophical shift
  • Managing a five-star quarterback’s development requires delicate handling
  • The expanded Big Ten presents new challenges and unfamiliar opponents
  • He must navigate a two-game self-imposed suspension due to fallout from the 2023 sign-stealing scandal

This early-season absence could impact the team’s development, particularly with a young quarterback. How Moore handles these challenges will reveal whether he’s merely a caretaker of Harbaugh’s program or a championship-caliber head coach in his own right.

The verdict on Moore’s leadership will emerge through how Michigan responds to adversity in 2025.

The answers to these five questions will determine whether Michigan contends for championships or faces another rebuilding year.

Several critical questions will shape Michigan’s 2025 campaign:

  1. How quickly can Bryce Underwood develop? The ceiling for this team largely depends on whether the freshman phenom can translate his immense talent to college production immediately. The history of true freshman quarterbacks suggests caution, but Underwood’s talent is undeniable.
  2. Will Chip Lindsey’s offensive overhaul yield immediate results? After ranking 131st in passing, Michigan needs dramatic improvement to compete with Big Ten powers. Schematic changes take time, but the talent influx could accelerate the transition.
  3. Can the defense maintain elite production despite key departures? The front seven appears loaded, but secondary depth and consistency remain concerns. Martindale’s second year should bring greater comfort in his system.
  4. Will the offensive line provide adequate protection for a freshman quarterback? This unit’s performance directly impacts Underwood’s development and the effectiveness of the rushing attack. The line must improve from its inconsistent 2024 performance.
  5. Can Michigan navigate the brutal road schedule? Games at Oklahoma, Nebraska, and USC represent significant challenges, particularly for a team breaking in new offensive systems. Road performance often separates good teams from great ones.

The answers to these questions will emerge gradually, but early-season performances will provide critical clues about Michigan’s trajectory.

Michigan stands poised between immediate resurgence and patient program building.

The contrast between optimism and caution defines Michigan’s 2025 outlook.

The influx of elite talent, particularly at quarterback, and the late-season momentum from 2024 suggest Michigan could quickly return to championship contention. Conversely, combining youth at key positions, a new offensive system, and a challenging schedule indicates potential growing pains.

What makes Michigan’s situation so compelling?

  • They’re just one year removed from a national championship
  • They possess championship-caliber defensive talent
  • They landed the nation’s No. 1 recruit at the sport’s most important position
  • They improved significantly at offensive coordinator
  • They face one of the nation’s most challenging schedules
  • They’re led by a head coach still establishing his identity

The talent level in Ann Arbor remains championship-caliber, the defensive identity remains strong, and the offensive ceiling is substantially higher than in 2024.

Whether Michigan can meet those expectations in 2025 or whether fans must practice patience for another season represents the defining storyline as the Wolverines embark on a new era under Sherrone Moore’s leadership, powered by a generational talent in Bryce Underwood.

Michigan’s 2025 season could ultimately be remembered as the beginning of a new dynasty or the necessary growing pains before one.

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Targeting Winners: College Football’s Day of Reckoning

Mark Haines on November 29, 2024

When History Comes Due: College Football’s Day of Reckoning

On the final Saturday of November 2024, college football will remind us why it remains America’s most compelling social experiment. In four different stadiums, eight teams will engage in a ritual that’s equal parts sporting event and psychological warfare. These aren’t just games—they’re settling accounts, tests of collective will, and exercises in mass delusion, where entire states convince themselves that the impossible is probable.

In South Carolina, two programs that share nothing but geography and mutual contempt will try to prove that statistics are just numbers on a page. In Columbus, Ohio State faces the cruel irony of finally getting a vulnerable Michigan team after three years of losses, only to discover that beating a wounded rival might be the most challenging task. In Los Angeles, USC will attempt to salvage a disappointing season by derailing Notre Dame’s playoff dreams, proving once again that nothing satisfies quite like ruining someone else’s perfect ending. And in Eugene, Oregon stands ready to exorcise three years of frustration against a Washington program that’s fallen from national championship contender to cautionary tale in less time than it takes to earn a college degree.

Each of these games carries its own particular strain of madness. Together, they form a perfect case study in how rational human beings – coaches, players, and millions of fans – can convince themselves that history, statistics, and probability are merely suggestions rather than laws. In short, it’s everything that makes college football the most irrational, and therefore most human, of our sports.

The Numbers That Lie: A Tale of Two Programs – South Carolina at Clemson

In the gathering dusk of late November, two football programs circle each other like prizefighters, each convinced they’ve decoded the other’s fatal flaw. The statistics tell one story: Clemson, the higher-ranked team with the more prolific offense, should win this game. But anyone who’s spent time in South Carolina knows that numbers, like the sweet tea served at every diner from Charleston to Greenville, can be deceptive.

The conventional wisdom says Clemson has the edge. Their quarterback, Cade Klubnik, throws for nearly fifty more yards per game than his counterpart. Their offense generates more total yards, touchdowns, and everything that should matter. We could all go home now if football games were played on spreadsheets.

But here’s where it gets interesting.

While everyone’s been watching Klubnik light up the stat sheet, South Carolina has been quietly perfecting the art of chaos. They don’t just play defense; they create havoc. Eighteen forced fumbles this season – a number that makes defensive coordinators salivate and quarterbacks wake up in cold sweats. Their defensive captain, Nick Emmanwori, has turned the secondary into a no-fly zone with four interceptions, but it’s his 76 tackles that tell the real story. He’s not just picking off passes; he’s hunting down ball carriers with the relentless precision of a Wall Street algorithm.

The market inefficiency here – the thing everyone else has missed – is in the special teams battle. South Carolina’s punter, Kai Kroeger, is averaging 47.8 yards per punt, a full five yards more than his Clemson counterpart. In a game where field position is currency, Kroeger prints money with every boot of the ball.

But perhaps the most telling number isn’t on any stat sheet. Five games – that’s how long South Carolina’s winning streak has stretched. Like confidence in financial markets, momentum in football is a self-fulfilling prophecy. Teams that believe they can’t lose often don’t.

The paradox at the heart of this rivalry is that for all of Clemson’s statistical superiority—their 469.9 yards per game, their 30 passing touchdowns, their number twelve ranking—they’re facing an opponent that has mastered the art of winning ugly. South Carolina’s defense doesn’t just stop drives; it ends them violently, with forced fumbles and defensive stands that send offensive coordinators back to their drawing boards.

Ultimately, this game won’t be decided by the comfortable certainties of statistics. It will come down to something far more primal: the ability to create chaos and thrive within it. South Carolina has turned defensive mayhem into an art form, while Clemson has built an offensive machine that looks unstoppable – until it meets a force that doesn’t play by the normal rules of engagement.

Overall Team Comparison

Records and Rankings:

  • Clemson: 9-2, ranked #12
  • South Carolina: 8-3, ranked #16

Momentum:

  • Clemson is on a 3-game winning streak
  • South Carolina is on a 5-game winning streak

Offensive Analysis

Passing Game:

  • Clemson’s Cade Klubnik leads a more prolific passing attack (274.6 yards/game) compared to South Carolina’s LaNorris Sellers (225.5 yards/game).
  • Clemson has a slight edge in passing touchdowns (30 vs. 20).

Rushing Game:

  • Clemson averages more rushing yards (195.3 vs. 181.8 yards/game).
  • South Carolina’s Raheim Sanders is the standout rusher with 11 TDs, while Clemson’s Phil Mafah leads with 8 TDs.

Key Playmakers:

  • Clemson: Antonio Williams (WR, 10 receiving TDs), Phil Mafah (RB, 1012 rushing yards)
  • South Carolina: Raheim Sanders (RB, 13 total TDs), Joshua Simon (TE, 6 receiving TDs)

Total Offense:

  • Clemson averages 469.9 yards/game
  • South Carolina averages 407.3 yards/game

Defensive Analysis

Run Defense:

  • South Carolina allows fewer rushing yards (103.4 vs. 139.6 yards/game).

Pass Defense:

  • Both teams are similar, with South Carolina slightly better (200.3 vs. 210.8 yards allowed/game).

Turnovers:

  • Clemson has more interceptions (13 vs. 12).
  • South Carolina forces more fumbles (18 vs. 11).

Key Defenders:

  • Clemson: T.J. Parker (9 sacks), Wade Woodaz and Barrett Carter (61 tackles each)
  • South Carolina: Kyle Kennard (11.5 sacks), Nick Emmanwori (76 tackles, 4 INTs)

Special Teams

Kicking:

  • Clemson’s Nolan Hauser: 15/20 FGs, 50/51 XPs
  • South Carolina’s Alex Herrera: 13/18 FGs, 41/41 XPs

Punting:

  • South Carolina’s Kai Kroeger averages 47.8 yards/punt
  • Clemson’s Aidan Swanson averages 42.4 yards/punt

Returns:

  • Clemson has a slight edge in kick returns (18.8 vs. 17.5 yards/return)
  • Clemson is significantly better in punt returns (8.2 vs. 5.9 yards/return)

Key Factors for the Matchup

  1. Offensive Firepower: Clemson’s more balanced and productive offense could challenge South Carolina’s defense.
  2. Defensive Playmaking: South Carolina’s defense has shown a greater ability to force turnovers and create big plays.
  3. Quarterback Play: The performance of Klubnik (Clemson) and Sellers (South Carolina) will be crucial.
  4. Field Position Battle: South Carolina’s superior punting game could be a significant factor.
  5. Red Zone Efficiency: Both teams have efficient kickers, making red zone conversions critical.
  6. Momentum: South Carolina enters with a longer winning streak, potentially providing a psychological edge.

Prediction

This matchup promises to be closely contested. South Carolina’s defensive strengths balance Clemson’s offensive advantages. The game could come down to turnovers, special teams play, and quarterback performance in critical moments. Given Clemson’s slightly higher ranking, more balanced offense, and home-field advantage, they might have a slight edge. However, South Carolina’s momentum and defensive playmaking ability make them a formidable opponent. Expect a tight game with the potential for big plays on both sides. The team that manages the turnover battle and performs better in special teams is likely to emerge victorious in what could be a classic rivalry matchup.

The smart money says Clemson wins this game 31-27. That’s what the algorithms predict, the statistical models suggest, and every rational analysis concludes. But there’s something fitting about the fact that this game will be played on the last day of November when the crisp autumn air carries just a hint of winter’s chaos. Because in the end, this rivalry isn’t about the predictable – it’s about the moments that break the models.

Clemson 31, South Carolina 27. That’s what the numbers say. But as one wizened South Carolina assistant coach told me with a knowing smile, “The beautiful thing about this game is that it’s played on grass, not paper.” In Palmetto State, grass has a way of growing wild.

Other Games Where We’re Targeting Winners

Michigan at Ohio State – The Cruelest Game in College Football

There’s a particular kind of torture in being favored by three touchdowns against your most bitter rival. Just ask Ohio State, which enters this year’s edition of The Game carrying the kind of burden that could crush a lesser program: the weight of three straight losses to Michigan, a clear path to the Playoff, and the suffocating expectations that come with being the team that absolutely, positively cannot lose to a 6-5 Michigan squad.

The cruel irony isn’t lost on anyone in Columbus. After years of falling to Jim Harbaugh’s powerhouse Michigan teams, the Buckeyes finally get a vulnerable version of their nemesis – and that somehow makes this game even more dangerous. Michigan’s offense may be diminished, but their defense remains stubborn enough to turn this into the ugly, grinding affair that has haunted Ohio State’s recent nightmares.

For Ohio State, it’s a game of psychological warfare against their own demons. Win, and they secure their spot in the Big Ten title game against Oregon while exorcising three years of Michigan-induced trauma. Lose, and… well, no one in scarlet and gray dares contemplate that scenario, even though their Playoff spot would likely survive such a catastrophe.

Michigan, meanwhile, arrives with the most dangerous weapon in college football: nothing to lose. Their defense, still salty enough to make life difficult for any offense, now gets to play the role of spoiler – a position that has produced some of college football’s most

The Game, as it’s known, has never needed additional drama to justify its appointment-viewing status. But this year’s edition adds a particularly twisted psychological element: Ohio State must beat a weakened version of the team that has tormented them or risk a new level of nightmare. There’s no greater pressure in college football than being the team that absolutely must win.

Prediction: Ohio State 31, Michigan 13. But if Michigan’s defense can force a couple of early turnovers and plant those seeds of doubt, that’s why they play The Game.

Notre Dame at USC – The Perfect Trap

There’s something poetic about Notre Dame having to pass through Los Angeles on its way to the College Football Playoff. Like any good Hollywood script, this one comes with all the classic elements of a potential tragedy: the protagonist riding high after overcoming early adversity, one final obstacle that seems manageable on paper, and an antagonist with nothing left to lose but their pride.

The Irish have spent months rehabilitating their image after that inexplicable slip-up early in the season. Like a forgiving audience, the playoff committee has bought into their redemption arc. However, USC’s Coliseum has always had a way of rewriting expected endings, especially when Lincoln Riley’s teams have their backs against the wall.

The numbers that matter here aren’t USC’s five losses – they’ve faced zero fourth-quarter deficits at home this season. Even Penn State, a team currently sitting in playoff position, needed overtime to escape Los Angeles with a win. For all their deficiencies and inconsistent play, the Trojans have mastered the art of the homestand. They’re like a veteran actor who might forget their lines in a touring production but never misses the mark on their home stage.

Lincoln Riley knows this is his last chance at salvaging something from a disappointing season. Expect him to empty the playbook, unleashing everything in USC’s arsenal – George Tirebiter, Traveler, Tommy Trojan, and even John McKay’s statue if he could make them eligible. In USC’s world, where a 6-5 record feels like a dramatic fall from grace, this game represents their chance at a redemptive finale. They’re not just playing spoiler but fighting for their own Hollywood ending.

And therein lies the trap for Notre Dame. They’ve convinced everyone – the committee, the analysts, perhaps even themselves – that they’ve evolved beyond that early-season stumble. But college football has a cruel sense of symmetry. A season that began with an unexpected stumble could end the same way.

Prediction: USC 34, Notre Dame 31. Because sometimes the best Hollywood endings are the ones nobody sees coming, written by a USC team that’s spent all season practicing fourth-quarter drama.

Washington at Oregon – When Empires Fall

Last January, as Washington walked off the field after the national championship game, the future seemed written in stone. The Huskies had Oregon’s number—three straight wins over their nemesis—and a program trajectory that pointed straight up. The rivalry’s power dynamics had shifted permanently toward Seattle.

Ten months later, the story reads like satire. Oregon stands undefeated, the last perfect team in major college football, while Washington stumbles into Eugene, looking less like a rival and more like a ritual sacrifice. The Ducks aren’t just winning; they’re thriving with the offensive balance that defensive coordinators see in their nightmares. Dillon Gabriel has turned the passing game into performance art, already eclipsing 3,000 yards. At the same time, Jordan James pounds out tough yards on the ground like a metronome measuring Oregon’s inevitable march toward the playoff.

Washington’s Will Rogers, meanwhile, looks like a quarterback trying to read a playbook written in hieroglyphics, throwing more interceptions (six) than touchdowns (two) over his last five games. The Huskies’ only hope lies in their 19th-ranked defense, and the strange mathematics of rivalry games – six of the last nine meetings have been decided by less than seven points.

But there’s something almost quaint about those historical statistics now. They’re like photos from a different era, reminders of when Washington could go toe-to-toe with the Ducks. Oregon doesn’t need this game – they could lose here and in next week’s Big Ten title game and likely still make the playoffs. That’s the kind of security that breeds either complacency or ruthlessness.

Prediction: Oregon 42, Washington 17. The cruelest part of college football’s natural order isn’t the fall from grace – it’s watching your rival ascend to heights you thought would be yours.

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Week 11’s Hidden Gems: Why the Computers Love Indiana (-14.5) and Doubt Georgia (-2.5)

Mark Haines on November 7, 2024

College Football’s Week 11 Hidden Gems

Every Thursday afternoon, I lay out the games that have caught my analytical eye – the matchups where the numbers whisper something different than the conventional wisdom shouts. This week, I’m focused on three contests that feel like finding mispriced assets in an efficient market: Indiana, that offensive juggernaut masquerading as a No. 8 team, laying 14.5 points against Michigan’s statistical regression to mediocrity; Ole Miss, where the computers suggest Georgia’s dynasty might be vulnerable, priced at just +2.5 at home; and undefeated Army, dominating opponents by four touchdowns per game yet valued as mere 5.5-point favorites against North Texas’s explosive offense. Compare these picks with what you’ll hear on the Targeting Winners Podcast (dropping every Friday afternoon on Spotify, Apple, or wherever you consume your gambling insights) and make your own calls. In a sport where everyone claims to know what will happen next, sometimes the best strategy is following where the numbers – not the noise – lead you.

Michigan at No. 8 Indiana

In the grand theater of college football, where narratives shape reality as much as the numbers that describe it, there’s something deliciously compelling about Indiana’s position heading into Week 11. The Hoosiers, those perennial Big Ten afterthoughts, find themselves winning and dominating – the kind of dominance that makes the spreadsheet jockeys at FanDuel set a -14.5 point spread against Michigan. Yes, that Michigan.

The analytics tell a story that would have seemed unthinkable just months ago. Under first-year coach Curt Cignetti, Indiana’s offense isn’t just good – it’s third in the nation, averaging 47 points per game. This kind of statistical anomaly makes you wonder if someone’s Excel formula has gone haywire. But no, the Hoosiers are genuinely reshaping the geometry of Big Ten football. At the same time, Michigan’s offense has become a case study in regression to the mean, ranking an almost incomprehensible 116th nationally in scoring.

The quants have spoken, and their computers have run 20,000 simulations of this matchup. In 86.9% of these digital futures, Indiana emerges victorious. If you’re wondering what this looks like in real numbers, that’s 17,380 victories to 2,620 losses. The machines think Indiana will win by 16.8 points, enough to cover the spread and then some.

But here’s where it gets interesting: The betting public, those eternal skeptics of sudden transformation, are still showing traces of doubt. While 66% of bets are riding with Indiana to cover, there’s a stubborn 34% clinging to the idea that Michigan will either pull off the upset or keep it within two touchdowns. It’s the kind of contrarian betting behavior that usually signals either prescience or delusion – and we won’t know which until Saturday afternoon.

Indiana’s perceived slight in the College Football Playoff rankings is the most fascinating subplot. Despite being undefeated, they sit at No. 8, with the committee pointing to their 82nd-ranked strength of schedule like accountants finding a rounding error in the books. Their best wins? Washington and Nebraska, both 5-4. It’s the kind of resume that makes the traditional powers smirk – until they face this offensive juggernaut beating FBS opponents by nearly four touchdowns per game.

Followers of the Targeting Winners Podcast know that betting against momentum like Indiana’s is akin to fighting the tide. The analytics give them an 86.5% chance of making the playoff, projecting 11.3 wins this season. Meanwhile, Michigan is projected for just 6 wins – the number that makes you wonder if someone accidentally divided by two.

When CBS’s cameras roll at 3:30 PM Eastern on Saturday, we’ll witness either the continuation of Indiana’s improbable ascension or a reminder that football, like markets, can correct violently and without warning. The smart money – and the machines – are betting on the former.

But then again, that’s why they play the games.

No. 3 Georgia at No. 16 Ole Miss

There’s a peculiar beauty in watching markets adjust to new information, and that’s exactly what we’re witnessing in Oxford this week. The mighty Georgia Bulldogs, winners of 11 of their last 12 against Ole Miss, arrive as mere 2.5-point favorites. The spread makes you wonder if the bookmakers know something the rest of us don’t.

The analytics paint a picture that would have seemed absurd just weeks ago. The SP+ model, that grand attempt to quantify college football’s “most sustainable and predictable aspects,” has Ole Miss winning 28-26. In predictive models, this is the equivalent of a Wall Street quant suggesting that a blue-chip stock is about to underperform. The computers have run their simulations 20,000 times, and in 53.9% of these digital futures, the Rebels emerge victorious. It’s a razor-thin margin that suggests we’re witnessing something approaching perfect market efficiency in college football odds.

But here’s where it gets interesting: Ole Miss has been manufacturing points like a tech company manufactures growth statistics, ranking sixth nationally by averaging 23 points better than its opponents. Georgia, meanwhile, has been merely mortal, outperforming its competition by 11.7 points—the kind of regression that makes defensive coordinators wake up in cold sweats.

The most fascinating subplot in all this is the efficiency metrics. Ole Miss’s defense – yes, their defense – ranks third in FBS by surrendering just 0.192 points per play. It’s the kind of statistical anomaly that makes you double-check your spreadsheets. Georgia’s offense sits at a respectable 15th nationally, allowing 0.286 points per play. However, in the zero-sum game of elite college football, being merely “respectable” is often a predictor of impending doom.

The betting markets, efficient processors of public sentiment, show a slight lean toward convention—55% of bets are riding with Georgia. It’s as if the market can’t quite bring itself to believe what the numbers tell it, like investors holding onto a falling stock because they remember its glory days.

For those following the Targeting Winners Podcast, this game represents a classic conflict between narrative and numbers. The narrative says Georgia is still Georgia, still the team that demolished these same Rebels 52-17 last year in Athens. The numbers, however, tell a different story.

Carson Beck’s 11 interceptions loom over this game like a credit default swap in 2008 – a hidden risk that could suddenly become visible. Meanwhile, Jaxson Dart just finished carving up Arkansas for 515 yards and six touchdowns, the kind of performance that makes predictive models recalibrate their assumptions in real time.

When ABC’s cameras go live at 3:30 PM Eastern on Saturday, we’ll watch more than just a football game. We’ll be watching a market correction in real-time, a test of whether the traditional power structures of college football can withstand the assault of pure statistical efficiency. The FPI gives Georgia an 83.5% chance of making the playoff, while Ole Miss sits at 61.1%—numbers that could shift dramatically based on three hours in Oxford.

The smart money – and the machines – say Ole Miss by a field goal or less. In a sport increasingly dominated by data, sometimes the most radical act is simply believing what the numbers tell you.

No 25 Army at North Texas

In the efficient college football betting market, a price discovery problem occasionally emerges that makes you question everything you think you know about value. Consider Army, undefeated and ranked 25th, favored by merely 5.5 points against North Texas. The spread makes you wonder whether the market has identified a fundamental flaw in Army’s pristine record or if we’re witnessing a massive pricing error.

The numbers tell a story of two teams operating in entirely different realities. Army’s outscoring opponents by 26.6 points per game – the margin that typically commands double-digit spreads. But here’s where the market gets interesting: six of their seven FBS victories have come against teams with losing records. It’s like a hedge fund posting impressive returns while trading only the most predictable securities.

Enter North Texas, the Mean Green chaos merchants of the American Athletic Conference. They possess the conference’s highest-scoring offense, the statistical outlier that makes Army’s defensive metrics look like they might have been compiled in a different era of football. Their quarterback, Chandler Morris, just finished dissecting Tulane’s defense for 449 yards on 38-of-57 passing – the kind of efficiency that makes option-based teams break out in hives.

The betting market has priced this game like a tech stock during earnings season – volatile and uncertain. Army sits at -186 on the moneyline, which translates to an implied probability that seems almost quaint given their perfect record. The Black Knights are 6-0 as favorites this season, the kind of trend that typically makes sharps salivate. But North Texas, at +153, has shown a propensity for violence against point spreads, covering four times in eight attempts.

This game represents a classic market inefficiency for those following the Targeting Winners Podcast. Army’s backup quarterback engineered a 20-3 victory over Air Force, while Morris and company have treated defensive coordinators like day traders during a flash crash.

The total is 63.5, which suggests the market expects North Texas to dictate the tempo. This is a reasonable assumption considering Morris’s recent performance: 449 yards against Tulane, the kind of number that makes service academies reconsider their defensive philosophies.

When ESPN2’s cameras go live at 3:30 PM Eastern on Saturday, we’ll witness either a market correction or a confirmation that sometimes perfect records are less valuable than they appear. Army coach Jeff Monken might get his starting quarterback Daily back, but in a game where North Texas treats passing yards like venture capitalists treat revenue growth, it might not matter.

The computers and the sharps seem to be telling us that Army’s undefeated record is about to face its strongest stress test yet. In a sport increasingly dominated by offensive efficiency, sometimes the best bet is against perfection.

Who are you picking this week? Comment here.

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Blog Article

What We’re Watching On Saturday

Mark Haines on September 7, 2024

Featured Game: Texas at Michigan

Location: Ann Arbor, Michigan

Game Time: Noon Eastern; 9:00 a.m. Pacific

Television: Fox

Game Preview

In a highly anticipated early-season matchup, the No. 10 Michigan Wolverines (1-0) host the No. 3 Texas Longhorns (1-0) at Michigan Stadium on Saturday. This clash between two of college football’s winningest programs marks only the second-ever meeting between these storied teams.

Key Storylines

Michigan’s First Real Test: After facing weak non-conference schedules in recent years, Michigan faces its first ranked non-conference opponent since 2019. The Wolverines are underdogs at home for the first time since 2021.

Texas Riding High: The Longhorns are coming off an impressive 52-0 shutout win over Colorado State and look to build on last year’s College Football Playoff appearance.

Quarterback Contrast: Texas has the edge with experienced QB Quinn Ewers, while Michigan turns to former walk-on Davis Warren in just his second start.

Strength vs. Strength: Michigan’s run-heavy offense will try to establish dominance against Texas’ stout defensive front.

Big Play Potential: Texas’ explosive offense, led by coach Steve Sarkisian, will test Michigan’s aggressive defense under new coordinator Wink Martindale.

Players To Watch

Michigan

QB Davis Warren

RB Donovan Edwards

TE Colston Loveland

LB Jaishawn Barham

CB Will Johnson

Texas

QB Quinn Ewers

WR Isaiah Bond

RB Jaydon Blue

LB Anthony Hill Jr.

Edge Trey Moore

Keys to the Game

Michigan’s Ground Game: The Wolverines must establish their running attack early to control the clock and keep Texas’ offense off the field.

Quarterback Play: Can Davis Warren keep pace with Quinn Ewers and make enough plays to keep Michigan competitive?

Limiting Big Plays: Michigan’s defense needs to contain Texas’ explosive receivers and prevent chunk plays.

Trenches Battle: The matchup between Michigan’s offensive line and Texas’ defensive front could decide the game.

Special Teams: In a potentially close game, kickers Dominic Zvada (Michigan) and Bert Auburn (Texas) could play crucial roles.

Prediction

While Michigan has a home-field advantage and a solid recent track record, Texas has the edge in talent and quarterback play. The Longhorns’ experience in big games, including last year’s win at Alabama, gives them a slight advantage.

Texas 27, Michigan 24

This game has the potential to be an instant classic and could significantly impact both teams’ College Football Playoff aspirations.

Other early games we’re watching:

Arkansas at Oklahoma State

Location: Stillwater, Oklahoma

Time: Noon Eastern; 9:00 am Pacific

Television: ABC

Kansas State at Tulane

Location: New Orleans, Louisiana

Time: Noon Eastern; 9:00 am Pacific

Television: ESPN

Afternoon Featured Game: Baylor at Utah

Location: Salt Lake City, Utah

Game Time: 3:30 p.m. Eastern; 12:30 p.m. Pacific

Television: Fox

In a unique non-conference matchup between two Big 12 teams, the Baylor Bears (1-0) travel to Salt Lake City to face the No. 11 Utah Utes (1-0) at Rice-Eccles Stadium on Saturday, September 7, 2024. Kickoff is set for 2:30 p.m. MT on FOX.

Key Storylines

Big 12 Homecoming: Although both teams are now in the Big 12, this game counts as non-conference because it was scheduled years ago when Utah was still in the Pac-12.

Return of the Stars: Utah’s quarterback Cam Rising and tight end Brant Kuithe made impressive returns from injury in week one, connecting for three touchdowns.

Baylor’s Revenge: The Bears look to avenge last year’s close 20-13 loss to Utah in Waco.

Defensive Shift: Baylor head coach Dave Aranda has taken over defensive coordinator duties, which could lead to schematic changes.

Home Field Advantage: Utah has won 32 of their last 34 home games and boasts an 84-game sellout streak at Rice-Eccles Stadium.

Players to Watch

Baylor

QB Dequan Finn

WR Ketron Jackson Jr.

RB Richard Reese

LB Matt Jones

DL Garmon Randolph

Utah

QB Cameron Rising

TE Brant Kuithe

RB Dijon Stanley

DT Junior Tafuna

CB Smith Snowden

Keys to the Game

Quarterback Play: Can Baylor’s Dequan Finn match the efficiency and production of Utah’s Cam Rising?

Establishing the Run: Both teams will look to improve their ground games after somewhat lackluster performances in week one.

Defensive Adjustments: How will Baylor’s defense, now led by Dave Aranda, contain Utah’s potent offense?

Special Teams Impact: Kickers Bert Auburn (Baylor) and Dominic Zvada (Utah) could play crucial roles in a potentially close game.

Limiting Turnovers: Both teams had turnover issues in their openers and will need to protect the ball better in this matchup.

Coaches’ Perspectives

Baylor’s Dave Aranda: “We’ve got something to prove. I think that we got a bunch of guys that want to win and want to achieve and want to be that team, and we know that the team we’re playing is kind of that team. And so we have to be able to show up with our best.”

Utah’s Kyle Whittingham: “We were fortunate to get out of there with a win last year. We haven’t forgotten that. It was a right down to the wire game. We have to prepare the right way all week long, just like we do every single week and be ready for a fight because that’s what it’s going to be.”

Prediction

While Baylor showed promise in their opener, Utah’s experience, home-field advantage, and the return of key players give them the edge. Expect a closer game than the odds suggest, but Utah should come out on top.

Utah 31, Baylor 24

This game will be a critical early-season test for both teams and could have significant implications for their respective Big 12 and national title aspirations.

Other Mid-Day Games We’re Watching

Iowa State at Iowa

Location: Iowa City, Iowa

Game Time: 3:30 Eastern; 12:30 Pacific

Television: CBS

Michigan State at Maryland

Location: College Park, Maryland

Game Time: 3:30 Eastern; 12:30 Pacific

Television: BTN – Big Ten Network

Night Game: Boise State at Oregon

Location: Eugene, Oregon

Time: 10:00 PM Eastern; 7:00 pm Pacific

Television: Peacock

In a compelling non-conference matchup, the Boise State Broncos (1-0) travel to Eugene to face the No. 7 Oregon Ducks (1-0) at Autzen Stadium on Saturday, September 7, 2024. Kickoff is set for 7 PM PT and will be broadcast on Peacock.

Key Storylines

Oregon’s Offensive Struggles: The Ducks look to bounce back from a lackluster offensive performance in their 24-14 win over Idaho.

Boise State’s Upset Bid: The Broncos aim to continue their historical success against Oregon, having won all three previous meetings.

Ashton Jeanty’s Momentum: Boise State’s running back comes off a record-breaking 267-yard, six-touchdown performance against Georgia Southern.

Ducks’ National Championship Aspirations: Oregon enters the season with high expectations as it prepares for its inaugural Big Ten season.

Coaching Chess Match: Dan Lanning’s defense vs. Dirk Koetter’s offense could be the key tactical battle of the game.

Players to Watch

Boise State

RB Ashton Jeanty

QB Maddux Madsen

WR Prince Strachan

DT Braxton Fely

Oregon

QB Dillon Gabriel

RB Jordan James

WRs Tez Johnson and Evan Stewart

CB Jabbar Muhammad

Keys to the Game

Oregon’s Offensive Line Performance: The Ducks’ O-line struggled against Idaho and faces a tough test against Boise State’s front seven.

Explosive Plays: Oregon’s offense lacked big plays in week one, and limiting explosive plays will be crucial for Boise State’s defense.

Boise State’s Passing Game: The Broncos need to use their size advantage at receiver against Oregon’s smaller secondary.

Containing Ashton Jeanty: Oregon’s front seven will be tested by Boise State’s star running back.

Special Teams and Trick Plays: Boise State may need to steal points through special teams or trick plays in a potential upset bid.

Coaches’ Perspectives

Oregon’s Dan Lanning on fixing offensive issues: “Don’t get off schedule. Don’t end up with third and longs. Don’t shoot ourselves in the foot with penalties. If we do that, we can move the ball.”

Boise State: The Broncos will likely aim to create chaos on defense and find ways to unlock an Oregon defense that looked formidable in week one.

Injury Report

Boise State:

HB Jambres Dubar – Dealing with a nagging injury from fall camp

C Mason Randolph – Left last game with a potential arm injury. Status uncertain

Oregon:

OL Matthew Bedford – May make his Duck debut after missing the opener.

Prediction

While Boise State has the potential to keep this game competitive, especially with Ashton Jeanty’s running ability, Oregon’s talent advantage and motivation to improve from last week’s performance should prove too much for the Broncos.

Oregon 38, Boise State 24

This game will be a crucial test for both teams—Oregon will need to prove its national championship credentials, and Boise State will need to show it can compete with top-tier programs. Expect a closer game than the odds suggest, but the Ducks should pull away in the second half.

Other Late Games We’re Watching:

Texas Tech vs Washington State

Location: Pullman, Washington

Time: 7:00 pm

Television: Fox

Mississippi State vs Arizona State

Location: Tempe, Arizona

Time: 10:30 pm Eastern, 7:30 pm Pacific

Television: ESPN

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