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New Mexico Football 2025 Season Preview: Jason Eck’s Zero-Point Rebuild

Mark Haines on July 28, 2025

Jason Eck inherits a New Mexico Football program that generated 33.5 points per game but surrendered 41.0, creating the classic high-floor, low-ceiling scenario that defines coaching transitions.

With a hot seat rating of 0 as a brand-new coach, Eck has maximum runway but faces the psychological reality that New Mexico fans have been conditioned to expect disappointment after decades of false starts. The numbers tell a story of offensive competence masking defensive futility. At the same time, the deeper challenge involves rebuilding confidence in a program that has systematically trained its supporters to expect coaching turnover.

What Eck Inherited: The Foundation

The numbers reveal a more nuanced reality than a simple 5-7 record suggests.

New Mexico’s 2024 season ended with a 3-4 Mountain West record, but those numbers obscure genuine offensive competence. The Lobos generated impressive production:

  • 484.3 yards per game (230.7 passing, 253.6 rushing)
  • 402 total points across 12 games
  • 6.8 yards per carry as a team
  • 37 rushing touchdowns

The offensive foundation centers around dual-threat quarterback Devin Dampier, who started all 12 games and accounted for 2,768 passing yards with 12 touchdowns against 12 interceptions while adding 1,166 rushing yards at 7.5 yards per carry with 19 rushing touchdowns. Running back Eli Sanders contributed 1,063 yards at 7.2 yards per carry with nine touchdowns.

However, here’s where reality sets in: they allowed 492 points, resulting in a -7.5 points per game margin.

The Defensive Disaster That Explains Everything

New Mexico’s defense was historically bad in ways that numbers can’t fully capture.

The unit surrendered 279.2 passing yards per game at a 64.6% completion rate while generating only three team interceptions all season. They gave up 2.5 passing touchdowns per game and managed just 10 total takeaways against 19 offensive turnovers, creating a minus-0.8 turnover margin per game.

This isn’t just bad defense – it’s program-killing defense that turns every game into a shootout where you need 40+ points just to have a chance.

Why The Previous Coach Succeeded (And Still Left)

Understanding Eck’s situation requires examining why Bronco Mendenhall lasted exactly one season despite showing genuine progress.

Mendenhall’s departure to Utah State wasn’t about performance failure. The 38-35 win over ranked Washington State was New Mexico’s signature victory in years, and the team was building momentum. Mendenhall left for proximity to family and the gravitational pull of coaching in Utah, where his mother lives and multiple adult children attend BYU.

This creates a fascinating paradox for Eck:

  • He inherits positive momentum without disaster-cleanup baggage
  • Players respected Mendenhall and saw tangible progress
  • Fans are skeptical because they’ve been trained to expect coaching turnover
  • Every setback gets magnified, and every positive development gets viewed suspiciously

The program is seeking its third head coach in three years, creating an environment where institutional memory conditions expectations toward failure.

Eck’s Track Record: Why This Hire Makes Sense

Eck’s credentials come from three seasons transforming Idaho from perpetual disappointment to a consistent FCS playoff contender.

His 26-13 overall record at Idaho included three straight playoff berths, with the Vandals reaching the quarterfinals in both 2023 and 2024. The 2024 Idaho team finished 10-4, winning 10 games for the first time in 36 years.

Here’s what makes Eck’s Idaho success relevant to New Mexico:

  • Turnaround Ability: Idaho had just two winning seasons in 22 years before Eck arrived
  • Offensive Innovation: 2022 Idaho ranked 5th in FCS passing efficiency (168.1) and 13th in scoring offense (35.9 points per game)
  • Personnel Development: Quarterback Gevani McCoy won the Jerry Rice Award as FCS Freshman of the Year in 2022
  • Adaptability: In 2024, replaced starting QB and 81.5% of receiving production yet still went 10-4

Before becoming a head coach, Eck spent six seasons at South Dakota State, culminating in three years as offensive coordinator from 2019-2021. His offenses averaged 32.5 points per game, including 37.5 in his final season. In 2019, he won the American Football Coaches’ Association FCS Assistant Coach of the Year award.

The Implementation Challenge: Systems and Personnel

Eck brings offensive coordinator Luke Schleusner from Idaho to install an up-tempo spread attack with zone-read elements.

This system alignment with New Mexico’s existing personnel suggests continuity rather than wholesale philosophical change. The Lobos return several key offensive contributors:

  • Receivers Michael Buckley and Caleb Medford
  • Running back Eli Sanders
  • Kicker Luke Drzewiecki

The quarterback situation presents both a challenge and an opportunity. With Dampier’s departure to the transfer portal, Eck must identify a replacement from candidates, including James Laubstein and Jack Layne. His track record developing quarterbacks suggests competence in this critical area.

Defensively, linebacker Randolph Kpai returns after recording 80 tackles in 2024, providing leadership for what must become a dramatically improved unit.

The spring game, in which the defense defeated the offense 32-23, indicates early progress in installing a more aggressive scheme focused on creating turnovers.

Schedule Reality: Immediate Tests and Realistic Opportunities

Eck’s 2025 debut presents immediate challenges that will define early perceptions.

Opening at Michigan on August 30 against a likely top-10 team creates a no-win scenario where any competitive showing gets praised while blowout losses get rationalized. The home opener against Idaho State provides a necessary confidence-building opportunity before traveling to UCLA.

The Mountain West schedule offers realistic opportunities for bowl eligibility, but the conference’s competitive balance means margin for error remains minimal.

New Mexico’s facility investments signal institutional support but won’t immediately impact on-field performance:

  • $11 million commitment to University Stadium upgrades
  • Video board improvements starting immediately
  • Long-term facility enhancement plans

The Hot Seat Reality: Maximum Institutional Patience

With a hot seat rating of 0, Eck enjoys something previous New Mexico coaches haven’t: time.

His five-year contract starting at $1.15 million annually represents serious institutional buy-in. This financial commitment (a $775,000 raise from his Idaho salary) demonstrates that Athletic Director Fernando Lovo understands that sustainable success requires stability and competitive compensation.

The contract structure, with annual escalations of $50,000, means Eck will become the highest-paid coach in school history by year three, provided he survives that long.

This investment level suggests the administration finally understands that coaching carousels kill programs.

The Expectation Paradox: Progress vs. Patience

Eck faces a unique challenge that most new coaches don’t encounter.

He’s replacing a coach who was making progress but left for personal reasons, rather than due to performance failures. This creates unrealistic expectations, where fans expect the continuation of Mendenhall’s positive trajectory without acknowledging that coaching transitions inevitably involve a Year-One regression.

New Mexico football has conditioned its fan base to expect disappointment. Even when things appear promising (like the Washington State victory), there’s an underlying assumption that disappointment is coming.

Eck must not only improve on-field performance but also rebuild psychological confidence in the program’s direction.

Why This Time Feels Different

Jason Eck represents New Mexico’s best coaching hire in years, bringing proven turnaround credentials and offensive expertise to a program with existing foundational pieces.

His FCS success translates directly to the Mountain West level, where program-building skills matter more than recruiting stars. The 2025 season will likely show growing pains as Eck implements his systems and develops quarterback play, but the offensive infrastructure suggests competitiveness.

Bowl eligibility remains achievable if the defense shows even modest improvement from its disastrous 2024 performance.

Success at New Mexico isn’t about immediate championships – it’s about building sustainable competitiveness and ending the cycle of coaching turnover that has plagued the program. By those measures, Eck’s appointment represents the program’s best opportunity for stability since Rocky Long’s tenure in the early 2000s.

The question isn’t whether Eck can coach; his Idaho record proves competence.

The question is whether New Mexico can finally provide the institutional support and patience necessary for sustained success. Early signs suggest that yes, 2025 will be a legitimate reset year, rather than another false start.

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The Clean Slate: Matt Entz and Fresno State’s Championship Caliber Reset

Mark Haines on July 25, 2025

Fresno State’s Matt Entz isn’t just another coaching hire.

The numbers tell a brutal truth about Fresno State’s 2024 campaign that few want to acknowledge: this was a program treading water, not swimming toward anything meaningful. A 6-7 record, including a gut-wrenching 28-20 double-overtime loss to Northern Illinois in the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl, represented the culmination of systemic issues that had been festering beneath the surface of what appeared to be consistent mediocrity.

But here’s where the human element gets fascinating. Fresno State athletic director Garrett Klassy didn’t panic-hire from the hot coordinator carousel or make a desperate play for a retreaded Power Five washout. Instead, he identified Matt Entz, a championship-caliber coach whose 60-11 record at North Dakota State included two FCS national titles and a staggering 15-3 playoff record.

The decision reveals something profound about institutional self-awareness: Fresno State recognized they needed someone who knew how to build winners, not someone who merely knew how to manage talent.

The Numbers Don’t Lie: What Went Wrong in 2024

The 2024 season was a masterclass in statistical mediocrity.

The raw statistical evidence from 2024 reveals the fundamental flaws that interim head coach Tim Skipper was unable to address. Fresno State averaged 340.6 total yards per game while surrendering 355.6 to opponents. That negative yardage differential of 15 yards per game tells the story of a team consistently playing from behind the chains.

The rushing attack was historically bad:

  • Just 98.2 yards per game
  • A pathetic 3.4 yards per carry
  • Ranked 10th in the Mountain West

The defense couldn’t stop anyone on the ground:

  • Allowed 139.4 rushing yards per game
  • Created a vicious cycle of poor field position
  • Let opponents control the clock and tempo

Turnovers told the real story:

  • Generated 20 turnovers on defense (15 interceptions, 5 fumbles)
  • Gave up 17 turnovers on offense
  • Starting QB Mikey Keene threw 11 interceptions alone

Perhaps most telling was the road performance: 2-4 away from Valley Children’s Stadium, with offensive output dropping to 302.7 yards per game.

Championship programs travel well because their identity is not dependent on environmental advantages.

The Entz Factor: Why This Hire Changes Everything

Matt Entz arrives in Fresno with credentials that surpass those of most Group of Five hires.

His tenure at North Dakota State wasn’t only successful but also historically dominant. The 2019 season saw NDSU go 16-0, making Entz the first Division I head coach to achieve a perfect season in his first full year. That team finished with a 37-game winning streak, the third-longest in Division I history.

But statistics only tell part of the story:

  • Developed eight NFL Draft picks at NDSU
  • Coached Trey Lance to become the third overall pick in 2021
  • Operated in an environment where championships were expected, not hoped for

The USC experience added another crucial dimension. In his lone season as assistant head coach for defense and linebackers, Entz helped the Trojans improve from 119th to 70th in total defense. Working under Lincoln Riley exposed him to modern offensive concepts while reinforcing his defensive principles at the FBS level.

Riley’s endorsement carried weight: “He made us better, he made me better.”

The Human Reality: Why Fresno State Fans Should Be Cautiously Optimistic

The hiring of coaches from successful FCS programs carries inherent risk.

The talent differential between the Missouri Valley Football Conference and the Mountain West is significant. However, Entz’s profile suggests someone uniquely equipped to navigate this transition. His defensive coordinator background at Western Illinois, Northern Iowa, and North Dakota State demonstrates adaptability across different systems and talent levels.

More importantly, Entz brings what Fresno State has lacked: a clear philosophical identity.

His press conference remarks about “leading the country in physicality” and building a “run-first offense” aren’t coach-speak platitudes. They represent a fundamental shift from the finesse-oriented approach that produced inconsistent results in 2024.

The roster construction for 2025 reflects this philosophical shift:

  • The transfer quarterback, E.J. Warner from Temple, provides experienced leadership
  • Sophomore Bryson Donelson returns after averaging 6.0 yards per carry as a freshman
  • Multiple offensive line additions, including junior college transfers
  • Immediate emphasis on establishing physical dominance up front

This isn’t just roster management—it’s cultural transformation.

The Realistic Expectations: What Success Looks Like in Year One

The 2025 schedule presents both opportunities and landmines.

Opening at Kansas on August 23 provides an immediate measuring stick against a Big 12 program. Home games against Georgia Southern, Nevada, San Diego State, Wyoming, and Utah State offer winnable contests if Entz can establish his system quickly.

The road slate is unforgiving:

  • Oregon State
  • Colorado State
  • Boise State
  • San Jose State

Success in 2025 won’t be measured by wins and losses alone but by evidence of systematic improvement in the areas that plagued the 2024 team.

Data-wise, watch for improved rushing offense and third-down conversion rates. If Entz can establish a ground game that consistently generates 4.5 yards per carry while improving third-down efficiency from 2024’s levels, the foundation for sustained success will be evident.

Defensively, reducing explosive plays and improving red zone defense should be immediate priorities.

The Deeper Truth: Why This Hire Matters Beyond Football

The Matt Entz hiring represents something larger than football strategy.

It signals that Fresno State refuses to accept mediocrity as its ceiling. In a landscape where Group of Five programs often settle for coaches who “understand the level,” Fresno State pursued someone who has consistently operated above it.

This philosophical approach extends beyond X’s and O’s:

  • Recruiting strategy focused on maximizing Central Valley talent
  • Cultural reset emphasizing “transformational leadership.”
  • Playing “for the logo” rather than individual accolades
  • Building for Pac-12 competition starting in 2026

The transition to the Pac-12 in 2026 adds urgency to this rebuild. Entz isn’t just preparing for Mountain West competition; he’s laying the groundwork for a program that can compete with Oregon State, Washington State, and other Pac-12 members.

The championship pedigree he brings suggests he understands the difference between building for survival and building for dominance.

The Bottom Line: A Foundation for Sustained Excellence

Matt Entz arrives at Fresno State with a hot seat rating of 0.0—the luxury afforded to new coaches with proven track records.

However, the numbers and human story suggest this hire represents more than a fresh start; it represents a fundamental shift in institutional ambition.

The 2024 season’s struggles created the conditions for meaningful change. The 6-7 record and bowl loss wasn’t just disappointing results; they were symptoms of a program that had lost its identity.

Entz brings clarity to that identity:

  • Physical, disciplined football
  • Championship-caliber expectations
  • Systematic player development
  • Cultural transformation from top to bottom

Success in 2025 should be measured not just by bowl eligibility but by evidence of systematic improvement. If Fresno State can establish a punishing ground game, reduce turnovers, and show the mental toughness to win close games on the road, the foundation for sustained excellence will be in place.

The Matt Entz era begins with unprecedented expectations for a first-time FBS head coach.

His championship pedigree and proven ability to develop talent suggest those expectations aren’t misplaced. For a program preparing to compete in the Pac-12, this hire could represent the difference between surviving conference realignment and thriving in it.

The data shows the clear truth: Fresno State needed someone who knew how to win at the highest level. The human reality is equally compelling: they found him.

Now the only question is whether the Central Valley is ready for championship-caliber football.

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Wyoming Football 2025 Season Preview: Jay Sawvel’s Critical Second Year

Mark Haines on July 24, 2025

Jay Sawvel inherited something both precious and dangerous when he took over Wyoming football.

The 33rd head coach in program history faces a paradox that would terrify most coaches: he must honor a decade of unprecedented stability while proving he can exceed the modest ceiling that same stability created. His hot seat rating of 0.531 after just one season reveals an uncomfortable truth about coaching transitions at programs caught between respectability and relevance.

The fear isn’t just about wins and losses. It’s about determining whether Wyoming’s defensive identity under Sawvel, as coordinator, was the foundation of success or merely a byproduct of Craig Bohl’s comprehensive system. Now, with a 3-9 inaugural season behind him and mounting pressure to validate Athletic Director Tom Burman’s internal promotion, Sawvel faces the existential coaching question: was he promoted because he was the best candidate, or because he was the safest one?

When Defense Couldn’t Save the Day

Sawvel’s first season exposed the fragility of Wyoming’s recent success.

The Cowboys’ 3-9 record (2-5 Mountain West) represented their worst performance since the pre-Bohl era. The numbers tell a story of systematic offensive failure that undermined four years of defensive development:

  • Offensive output: Just 19.3 points and 327.3 yards per game
  • Passing attack: 52.2% completion rate, 189.4 yards per game, 0.9 passing touchdowns per contest
  • Quarterback instability: Evan Svoboda managed 5 touchdowns against 8 interceptions before giving way to Kaden Anderson
  • Close game struggles: 2-7 record in contests decided by eight points or fewer

The defensive side, Sawvel’s supposed area of expertise, allowed 410.6 yards per game. While not catastrophic, it represented significant regression from the units that helped define Wyoming football under Bohl. The Cowboys surrendered 218.9 passing yards and 191.7 rushing yards per game, failing to force the game-changing turnovers that had become their trademark.

Seven of their nine losses came by margins that indicated competitive capability undermined by crucial mistakes.

The Statistical Split That Reveals Everything

Here’s what makes Wyoming’s 2024 season so maddening: when they were good, they were really good.

In victories, the Cowboys averaged 39.7 points and 435 total yards per game. This 20-point differential between wins and losses exposed the binary nature of Sawvel’s first season. When things worked, they worked spectacularly. Consistency remained elusive.

The three wins showcased different versions of competitive football:

  • Air Force (31-19): Defensive dominance
  • New Mexico (49-45): Offensive explosiveness
  • Washington State (15-14): Clutch execution

Yet the Cowboys couldn’t string together this level of performance across twelve games.

Special teams provided unexpected stability amid the chaos. Kicker John Hoyland converted all 25 extra points and 15 of 19 field goals, while punter Jack Culbreath averaged 40.4 yards per punt. However, all three specialists graduated, creating another area of uncertainty for 2025.

Addition Through Subtraction: The 2025 Roster Mathematics

Wyoming’s outlook hinges on whether losing its defensive leaders can somehow improve the team.

The graduation of linebacker Shae Suiaunoa (88 tackles, 10 TFL), safety Connor Shay (76 tackles), and defensive back Wrook Brown (48 tackles, 3 interceptions) removes the defensive spine that helped define recent Wyoming teams. This isn’t just about losing tackles. It’s about losing the voices that made defensive adjustments and kept younger players focused.

Yet the offensive foundation offers genuine optimism:

  • Quarterback Kaden Anderson: Returns as a sophomore after a 58.3% completion rate, 955 yards, 6:3 TD: INT ratio in nine games
  • Running back Sam Scott: Led team with 435 yards (4.7 average) in 10 games, returns for senior season
  • Receiver Jaylen Sargent: Team leader with 480 yards and 2 TDs, brings senior experience
  • Tight end John Michael Gyllenborg: 425 yards and 3 TDs, provides reliable target

The 2025 roster reveals strategic depth additions, particularly at positions that struggled in 2024. Multiple underclassmen at quarterback, running back, and wide receiver suggest increased competition and developmental potential.

The question remains whether this depth translates to on-field improvement or merely organizational depth.

The Schedule Gauntlet: Where Championships Are Won or Lost

Wyoming’s 2025 schedule will define Sawvel’s coaching identity in the first month.

The non-conference slate begins with road trips to Akron and Colorado, sandwiched around home games against Northern Iowa and Utah. This early-season stretch will likely determine whether Sawvel gets a third year or finds himself updating his resume.

The Utah Test

The Utah home game on September 13 represents everything. The Utes’ recent success makes this a measuring-stick game that could provide early validation or expose continued deficiencies. A competitive showing against Utah suggests Sawvel’s system is taking hold. A blowout loss raises questions about year-two development that won’t go away.

Conference play offers more realistic win opportunities:

  • Home games: UNLV, San Jose State, Colorado State, Nevada
  • Challenging road trips: San Diego State, Fresno State, Hawaii

The travel demands have historically tested Wyoming’s depth and conditioning, making every road game a potential trap.

The Philosophy Under Fire

Sawvel’s coaching philosophy centers on playing “harder, faster, smarter, and longer than our opponent.”

This approach worked when applied specifically to defense. Translating it to comprehensive program leadership represents his greatest challenge. The 0.531 hot seat rating suggests external observers remain skeptical about his ability to implement system-wide change.

The promotion of Aaron Bohl to defensive coordinator represents both continuity and risk. While Bohl’s four-year tenure as linebackers coach provides institutional knowledge, his lack of coordinator experience creates another variable in an already uncertain equation.

Sawvel’s ability to delegate defensive responsibilities while focusing on offensive development will determine whether Wyoming can effectively balance both phases.

The Defensive Coordinator Syndrome

Here’s the deeper concern surrounding Sawvel’s tenure: successful coordinators often struggle with the comprehensive demands of head coaching.

The Cowboys’ offensive struggles suggest Sawvel may have over-compensated in trying to maintain defensive standards while developing offensive competence. This split focus often leads to mediocrity in both phases, exactly what Wyoming cannot afford, given its resource limitations and competitive disadvantages.

Wyoming fans have been conditioned to expect defensive competence as a baseline. The fear is that Sawvel’s attempts to modernize the offense could undermine the defensive foundation that made Wyoming competitive during the Bohl era.

This balancing act becomes even more challenging when facing the immediate pressure of hot-seat speculation after just one season.

Hot Seat Mathematics: The Year Two Reality

A 0.531 hot seat rating after one season places Sawvel in precarious territory.

While Athletic Director Tom Burman typically doesn’t place first-year coaches on hot seat status, Sawvel’s rating suggests performance expectations that transcend normal grace periods. The mathematical reality is stark: significant improvement in year two isn’t just preferred, it’s essential.

Wyoming’s recent history suggests 6-7 wins represent the minimum threshold for continued confidence. Anything less than bowl eligibility would likely push Sawvel’s rating into genuinely dangerous territory, particularly if offensive struggles persist.

However, the counter-argument remains compelling:

  • Sawvel inherited a program transitioning from a beloved, long-tenured coach
  • The 2024 season could represent growing pains rather than fundamental incompetence
  • His defensive pedigree and institutional knowledge provide advantages external hires often lack

The 2025 Projection: Breakthrough or Breakdown?

Wyoming’s season will hinge on three critical factors.

Quarterback development: Anderson’s continued growth could unlock the offensive potential glimpsed in 2024’s victories. If he stagnates or regresses, the season could unravel quickly.

Defensive leadership emergence: Young defensive players must replace graduated leadership without sacrificing competitive intensity. This transition often takes a full season to solidify.

Special teams competence: New specialists must maintain the field position advantages that kept Wyoming competitive in close games. Poor special-teams play could turn close losses into blowouts.

The schedule provides realistic opportunities for 5-7 wins, which would represent meaningful progress while potentially falling short of bowl eligibility. However, this marginal improvement might not satisfy hot-seat concerns, particularly if losses continue to come in winnable games.

Sawvel’s coaching future depends on proving that Wyoming’s defensive identity can coexist with offensive competence.

The 2024 season showed flashes of this potential, but consistency remains the ultimate challenge. Whether he can synthesize these elements into sustained success will determine not only his job security but also Wyoming’s competitive trajectory in an increasingly challenging Mountain West landscape.

For a program caught between past success and future aspirations, the stakes couldn’t be higher.

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Nevada Football 2025 Season Preview: Jeff Choate’s Critical Second Year

Mark Haines on July 23, 2025

Jeff Choate’s honeymoon period as Nevada’s football coach is over.

After a brutal 3-10 debut season that included an embarrassing 0-7 conference record, Nevada’s second-year head coach enters 2025 with a hot seat rating of .451. This number screams one thing: urgency. With conventional wisdom granting coaches three years to show progress, 2025 becomes make-or-break time for both Choate and the Wolf Pack program.

The mathematics are simple and unforgiving. Nevada has stumbled through three consecutive 10-loss seasons, going 7-30 from 2022-24 in what represents the worst stretch in the program’s FBS history. Choate inherited a roster decimated by coaching turnover, but year two demands tangible improvement, not just moral victories and “cultural progress.”

The Painful Reality of Year One

Two stories emerged from Choate’s first season.

The encouraging narrative highlighted competitive losses to ranked opponents, SMU and Boise State, suggesting that the program had stopped the bleeding of complete blowouts that had plagued previous years. Nevada played a better brand of football but went 2-6 in one-possession games, including losses to top-10 teams.

The harsh reality revealed deeper problems:

  • Nevada’s 99 penalties tied for fifth-most nationally
  • The Wolf Pack accumulated 935 penalty yards, also fifth-most among FBS teams
  • These weren’t isolated incidents but a season-long pattern that cost Nevada winnable games against Georgia Southern, San Jose State, and Fresno State.

Even more concerning was the defensive collapse. The Wolf Pack allowed 391.5 yards per game and managed just 14 sacks—tied for the fourth fewest in the nation and the team’s least since having five in 2004.

Without a pass rush, opponents controlled games through methodical drives that Nevada’s penalty-prone defense couldn’t stop.

The Roster Revolution

Choate has essentially rebuilt Nevada from scratch.

He added 53 new players for 2025, effectively flipping roughly half the roster. This wasn’t subtle tinkering, but rather an acknowledgment that his initial roster construction had missed the mark.

“I think we made some mistakes last year because we hurried and we made it a point not to do that this year,” Choate admitted to Nevada Sports Net.

The coaching staff prioritized character and academic performance over flashy recruiting rankings:

  • They examined academic history as a predictor of work ethic
  • They evaluated family makeup and positive influences
  • They signed 30 high school players compared to just five the previous year
  • They emphasized Northern Nevada and Northern California recruits for better regional fits

This philosophical shift reflects hard-learned lessons about sustainable roster building versus quick-fix recruiting.

The Quarterback Conundrum

Brendon Lewis’s departure creates Nevada’s most pressing question mark.

Lewis accounted for 2,290 passing yards and 775 rushing yards, essentially functioning as the offense’s engine. His replacement likely comes from a group including Chubba Purdy, AJ Bianco, and newcomer Carter Jones, but none brings Lewis’s proven production.

The numbers tell a concerning story:

  • Purdy managed just 239 yards in seven games last season
  • Bianco totaled 173 yards in five appearances
  • Both showed flashes but lack the sample size to inspire confidence

The quarterback uncertainty ripples throughout an offense that already lost top receiver Jaden Smith (849 yards, 7 TDs) and leading rusher Savion Red (687 yards, 8 TDs).

Defensive Reconstruction

Nevada’s defensive makeover aims to address the unit’s glaring weaknesses.

The Wolf Pack added six transfers to the defensive backfield, addressing a secondary that consistently broke down in coverage. “That was a major priority,” Choate said of the defensive backs additions.

The coaching staff also restructured the defensive line room, combining edge rushers and interior linemen under one coordinator to improve communication and technique. This organizational change acknowledges that Nevada’s pass rush needs systematic improvement rather than personnel Band-Aids.

Special Teams Overhaul

Perhaps no area received more attention than special teams.

Nevada’s failures in crucial moments contributed to several losses throughout 2024. The Wolf Pack completely rebuilt the unit, adding multiple specialists and dedicating additional coaching resources.

This investment reflects Choate’s understanding that field position and execution in crucial moments separate winners from those who settle for moral victories.

The Schedule Reality Check

Nevada’s 2025 schedule presents both opportunities and dangers.

The season opener at Penn State represents a guaranteed loss against a College Football Playoff semifinalist. However, subsequent games offer hope:

  • Sacramento State (winnable home opener)
  • Middle Tennessee (balanced opponent at home)
  • Western Kentucky (road test but manageable)

The Mountain West slate includes crucial home games against San Diego State, Boise State, San Jose State, and UNLV. These provide chances to reverse last year’s conference shutout.

Road trips to Fresno State, New Mexico, Utah State, and Wyoming will test whether Nevada’s cultural changes translate to road toughness.

The Pressure Points

Several factors will determine whether Choate survives beyond 2025.

Conference Competitiveness: A 0-7 record in Mountain West play would likely seal Choate’s fate. The program needs at least 2-3 conference wins to demonstrate tangible progress.

Penalty Discipline: “I’ve never seen this before in my life,” Choate said about Nevada’s penalty problems during the 2024 season. If the Wolf Pack continues flagging itself out of games, it signals fundamental coaching failures.

Close Game Execution: Nevada lost multiple one-possession games through mental errors and poor situational execution. Converting just two of those losses into wins would dramatically alter perception.

Player Development: The roster overhaul only matters if newcomers improve throughout the season.

Stagnant development would indicate systemic problems beyond personnel.

What Success Looks Like

Realistic improvement for Nevada means 5-6 wins and 2-3 conference victories.

Bowl eligibility would represent a massive step forward, but even falling short while showing evident progress in penalties, defense, and close-game execution could buy Choate another year.

The hot seat rating of .451 leaves little room for moral victories. “I really feel like there’s a shift in our locker room,” Choate said, entering his second season, but shifts in locker rooms must translate to shifts in the win column.

The Deeper Reality

Choate’s situation embodies the modern paradox of college football.

Programs demand immediate results while acknowledging that sustainable success requires patience and development. Nevada’s administration and fan base understand the roster challenges Choate inherited, but hot seat ratings reflect results, not excuses.

The coach’s emphasis on character and culture suggests he’s building for long-term sustainability rather than quick fixes. However, this approach only works if accompanied by visible on-field improvement.

Too many college coaches have been fired while preaching the importance of culture and character development.

The Verdict

Jeff Choate has made logical moves to address Nevada’s 2024 weaknesses.

The roster overhaul targets specific problems, the coaching adjustments reflect honest self-assessment, and the recruiting philosophy emphasizes sustainable building rather than desperate transfers.

Whether these changes translate to wins remains uncertain:

  • Choate’s hot seat rating of .451 reflects legitimate concerns about his ability to develop competitive teams quickly enough
  • Year two will determine if he’s the right leader for Nevada’s rebuild
  • The margin for error has vanished

Choate’s process appears sound, but in college football, results matter more than methodology.

Nevada needs wins, not explanations, and 2025 will determine if Jeff Choate can deliver both.

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Spencer Danielson’s Coaching Performance: The 2025 Test That Will Define His Boise State Football Legacy

Mark Haines on July 23, 2025

Boise State Football’s Spencer Danielson walks into 2025 with a hot seat rating of 1.073 and zero pressure to save his job.

But here’s what nobody is talking about: this season represents the most brutal coaching evaluation of his career. Danielson must replace generational talent, navigate the program’s toughest schedule in years, and prove his 15-3 record wasn’t just a result of good fortune with elite players.

The numbers from 2024 paint a picture that should terrify any coach facing similar circumstances. Ashton Jeanty rushed for 2,601 yards and 29 touchdowns while finishing as Heisman Trophy runner-up. The offense averaged 37.3 points per game, ranking fifth nationally. The defense generated 55 sacks, ranking first in the nation.

Now all of that production walks out the door.

The Coaching Metrics That Reveal Everything

Danielson’s 83.3% winning percentage trails only Chris Petersen’s legendary 88.5% mark in program history.

But the context matters more than the percentage. Petersen inherited established systems and built gradually. Danielson took over a 5-5 team mid-season and immediately produced three consecutive victories, becoming the first interim head coach in FBS history to win a conference championship game.

This accomplishment required:

  • Instant roster evaluation under maximum pressure
  • Scheme adjustment with zero preparation time
  • Leadership establishment during program crisis
  • Game planning against opponents who had months to prepare

Most coaches fail catastrophically in these circumstances. Danielson thrived.

The Offensive Coaching Evolution Nobody Saw Coming

Here’s where Danielson’s coaching performance gets interesting.

Defensive coordinators typically produce conservative offensive philosophies. They focus on ball control, field position, and avoiding mistakes. Danielson shattered this stereotype completely.

Boise State averaged 466 total yards per game in 2024 with 225.6 passing yards complementing the rushing dominance. The coaching staff built schemes around Jeanty’s unique skill set while maintaining balanced attack principles that stressed defenses horizontally and vertically.

This dual-threat capability required sophisticated play calling and personnel management that many defensive-minded coaches struggle to implement. Danielson mastered it in one season.

The 2025 Replacement Challenge That Exposes Everything

Losing Jeanty forces Danielson to completely reconstruct offensive identity around a committee approach.

The numbers are stark:

  • Jambres Dubar: 99 rushing yards in 2024
  • Dylan Riley: 135 rushing yards
  • Sire Gaines: 156 rushing yards in limited action

Combined, these three players produced fewer yards than Jeanty averaged every four games. This isn’t a depth chart adjustment. This is offensive philosophy reconstruction from the ground up.

Danielson’s coaching response centers on scheme diversification rather than finding a single replacement. Smart coaches understand that personnel limitations necessitate tactical innovation, not rigid adherence to a system.

Defensive Coaching Performance: Strengths and Glaring Weaknesses

The 2024 defense generated 111 tackles for loss, ranking third nationally.

But the pass defense allowed 241.4 yards per game, with road performance deteriorating to 276.2 yards per game. The graduation of four senior defensive backs exposes potential coaching failures in depth development or recruiting evaluation.

Danielson’s response involved adding six transfers, including:

  • Demetrius Freeney from Arizona
  • Jeremiah Earby from California
  • Four additional players bringing multiple years of experience

This transfer portal activity suggests recognition of internal development shortcomings. Good coaches adapt when internal systems fail.

The Penalty Pattern That Reveals In-Game Management Problems

Boise State averaged 46.2 penalty yards per game but spiked to 70 yards per game in their two losses.

This 51% increase in penalties during defeats suggests a coaching struggle in maintaining discipline under pressure. Elite opponents exposed composure deficiencies that better preparation should have prevented.

Successful coaches drill situational awareness until it becomes instinct. Danielson’s penalty patterns indicate this drilling was insufficient against superior competition.

Roster Management Coaching in the Transfer Portal Era

Danielson retained 13 players who were “illegally recruited” by other programs during the 2024 season.

“I know for sure of 13 that are getting illegally recruited to get in the portal and get paid all this and that,” Danielson revealed. Yet zero players transferred during the season.

This retention success required:

  • Individual counseling with players and families
  • Future planning that extended beyond single seasons
  • Authentic relationship building rather than transactional interactions
  • Counter-messaging against external recruiting pressure

Most coaches lose multiple players to this pressure. Danielson lost none.

The Schedule Management Test That Changes Everything

The road trip to Notre Dame on October 4 presents the highest-profile coaching challenge in recent program history.

Danielson must prepare his team for hostile environment, superior talent, and national television pressure while managing a roster with limited big-game experience. The Mountain West road games at Air Force, Nevada, and Utah State require constant adjustments.

Home versus road performance reveals coaching adaptation challenges. Boise State went 7-0 at home, averaging 491.4 yards and 41.7 points per game. Road statistics were significantly lower.

This 50-yard difference in offensive production indicates coaching struggles with environmental adaptation.

Special Teams Coaching: The Immediate Performance Concern

Kicker Jonah Dalmas (100% on extra points, 72.2% on field goals) and punter James Ferguson-Reynolds (43.5 yards per punt) both graduated.

Danielson’s coaching response emphasizes “coverage and return units” while new specialists develop. This suggests pragmatic acceptance that immediate replacement is unrealistic.

Special teams failures often determine the outcome of close games. Danielson’s coaching record includes no evidence of successfully developing specialists from inexperienced players.

The Faith-Based Leadership That Creates Recruiting Advantages and Limitations

“I give Jesus all the glory. I know that’s the only reason that I’m here. I’m so thankful that He put me in this seat,” Danielson stated after victories.

This authentic leadership resonates with specific recruitment demographics but may limit its appeal in an increasingly diverse roster construction. Coaching performance must strike a balance between personal authenticity and inclusive team building.

The team’s record GPA in Fall 2024 demonstrates that Danielson’s emphasis on comprehensive player development yields measurable academic results that extend beyond the football field.

Contract Extension: Institutional Confidence with Performance Pressure

The five-year deal, which runs through 2029 and averages $2.2 million annually, represents a significant investment.

“Spencer has proven to be the right leader at the right time for Boise State football and our university as a whole,” Athletic Director Jeramiah Dickey declared.

However, this confidence was earned during an exceptional season with elite talent that may not be repeatable. Contract security creates both comfort and heightened expectations for sustained performance.

The 2025 Evaluation That Determines Everything

Success in 2025 would establish Danielson among elite Group of Five coaches and validate his systematic approach to program building.

Failure would raise questions about whether his early success was due to circumstances rather than coaching excellence. The hot seat rating of 1.073 provides current security, but coaching performance is evaluated continuously.

Danielson’s coaching performance evaluation must account for the fundamental transformation of college football during his tenure. The transfer portal, NIL compensation, and conference realignment create coaching challenges that previous generations never faced.

His adaptation to these changes, while maintaining competitive performance, indicates a coaching evolution that many veteran coaches have struggled to achieve.

The 2025 season represents the definitive measurement of Danielson’s long-term coaching capabilities.

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AirForce Falcons 2025 Season Preview: Troy Calhoun’s Excellence Amid Transformation

Mark Haines on July 22, 2025

Troy Calhoun isn’t just surviving at AirForce—he’s thriving.

With a hot seat rating of 1.124, the highest in the Mountain West Conference, Calhoun is exceeding expectations in an environment where most coaches would crumble under pressure. His 18th season at the helm represents something college football rarely sees: sustained excellence at a place where football ranks third behind academics and military preparation.

The 2024 season perfectly captured Calhoun’s coaching genius.

After a seven-game losing streak dropped Air Force to 1-7, most coaches would have faced a mutiny. Instead, Calhoun engineered one of college football’s most remarkable turnarounds, closing with four consecutive victories to finish 5-7. This wasn’t luck. This was tactical mastery and psychological warfare against despair itself.

What The Numbers Actually Reveal

The 2024 statistics expose both the challenge Calhoun faced and the precision with which he solved it.

Air Force’s passing attack was brutally inefficient:

  • 44.9% completion rate
  • 89.8 yards per game
  • Only 5 touchdown passes
  • 10 interceptions

Most coaches would panic and abandon their principles.

Calhoun doubled down on what works. The rushing attack dominated with 224 yards per game and 24 touchdowns, featuring six different players topping 100 yards. Dylan Carson led with 600 yards, Owen Allen contributed 335, proving Calhoun’s by-committee approach works at the service academy level.

Here’s where Calhoun’s genius really shows:

In Wins:

  • Outscored opponents by 6.2 points per game
  • Only 0.4 turnovers per contest
  • Disciplined, mistake-free football

In Losses:

  • Outscored by 14.6 points per game
  • 1.9 turnovers per game
  • Sloppy execution and poor preparation

The difference wasn’t talent—it was coaching.

Why The Critics Miss The Point

Anyone focusing solely on Air Force’s 5-7 record fundamentally misunderstands service academy football.

These aren’t transfer portal mercenaries chasing NIL deals. These aren’t five-star recruits dreaming of the NFL. These are future military officers navigating the nation’s most demanding academic curriculum while mastering college football’s most complex offensive system.

The fact that Calhoun has led this program to 13 bowl games represents a coaching achievement that dwarfs conference championships at traditional schools.

The late-season surge wasn’t accidental. From November forward, Air Force held opponents to 97.0 rushing yards per game—a massive improvement that reflected in-season adjustments most coaches never master. When the Falcons shut out Oregon State 28-0 and closed with authority, they revealed what happens when Calhoun’s system reaches full capacity.

The 2025 Roster Reality

Calhoun enters 2025 with a calculated approach to retention and strategic development.

Offensive Foundation:

  • Dylan Carson (Sr.), Kade Frew (Sr.), Owen Allen (Jr.) return at running back
  • Over 10 offensive linemen returning
  • Josh Johnson (Jr.) leads quarterback competition
  • Cade Harris (Sr.) and Quin Smith (Sr.) provide veteran receiving presence

Defensive Leadership:

  • Osaro Aihie (Sr.) anchors linebacker corps
  • Daniel Grobe (Sr.) and Payton Zdroik (Sr.) lead defensive line
  • Multiple departures in secondary create opportunity for emerging players

The quarterback situation presents the classic Calhoun challenge: evolution without revolution.

Johnson must develop passing consistency without abandoning the option principles that define Air Force football. This balance separates great service academy coaches from mediocre ones.

Schedule Gauntlet Ahead

Air Force’s 2025 schedule immediately separates coaching excellence from mediocrity.

Key Home Games:

  • Boise State (two-time defending MW champion)
  • Wyoming
  • Army (service academy rivalry)
  • Hawaii
  • New Mexico

Critical Road Tests:

  • Utah State (conference opener)
  • Navy (service academy rivalry)
  • Colorado State (season finale)
  • UNLV
  • San Jose State

The season opens August 30 against Bucknell, providing a crucial confidence-building opportunity.

Early tests against Utah State and Boise State will immediately reveal whether late-2024 improvements carry forward. The traditional service academy rivalries against Navy and Army remain season-defining contests that transcend conference standings.

The Passing Game Evolution

The 2025 season hinges on one critical question: Can Air Force develop enough passing threat to prevent opponents from loading the box?

This represents the eternal service academy paradox. The option offense requires precision timing and extensive practice repetition, but defensive evolution demands offensive counter-adaptation. Calhoun’s genius lies in finding the balance between foundational commitment and tactical flexibility.

With Harris and Smith returning, the foundation exists for improvement.

But the challenge remains systemic—can Air Force threaten through the air enough to keep their ground game effective?

Special Teams Wild Card

The graduation of reliable kicker Matthew Dapore creates uncertainty in a phase that often determines close games.

Four new kickers are competing for the role, and Calhoun faces the challenge of developing consistency in an area where Air Force has traditionally excelled. Special teams excellence often separates successful service academy seasons from disappointing ones.

Championship Window Analysis

ESPN projects Air Force for 6.2 wins and 94th in SP+, reflecting the challenge of replacing departed talent.

However, these projections consistently undervalue Calhoun’s ability to maximize limited resources through superior preparation and in-game adjustments. The pathway to success runs through early season stability and mid-season growth.

If Air Force navigates the opening month without significant setbacks, the late-season schedule provides opportunity for the kind of surge that characterized 2024’s conclusion.

Bowl eligibility remains the realistic goal, with conference championship aspirations dependent on breakthrough performances in marquee matchups.

Beyond The Win Column

Calhoun’s hot seat rating of 1.124 reflects more than on-field success—it represents institutional alignment.

At Air Force, winning means developing officers first and football players second:

  • 99% graduation rate among Calhoun’s players
  • Consistent Academic Progress Report excellence
  • Cultural standards that define service academy excellence

His contract extension through 2029 provides the stability that service academy programs require.

Unlike traditional college football, where coaching changes happen annually, Air Force benefits from Calhoun’s deep understanding of institutional requirements and recruiting limitations.

The 2025 Prediction

Air Force will likely finish between 6-6 and 8-4, with bowl eligibility representing success given the roster transition.

The early season determines whether the late-2024 improvements were foundational or situational. Calhoun’s track record suggests the former, but college football rarely rewards assumption over execution.

The true measure of Calhoun’s 2025 success won’t be final record but rather the trajectory established for 2026 and beyond.

If Air Force demonstrates consistent offensive balance and defensive competitiveness while maintaining the cultural standards that define service academy excellence, the season will have achieved its broader objectives.

Troy Calhoun remains the standard for service academy coaching not because of what he’s won, but because of how he’s won it.

In an era of transfer portal chaos and NIL distraction, he represents something increasingly rare: institutional commitment married to tactical excellence. The 2025 season will likely provide another chapter in that ongoing legacy, regardless of the final win total.

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Colorado State 2025 Football Season Preview: Jay Norvell’s Critical Fourth Year

Mark Haines on July 22, 2025

Jay Norvell’s fourth season at Colorado State might be his most important yet.

With an 8-5 record and bowl appearance providing foundation credibility, the head coach faces meaningful pressure to demonstrate that three years of steady building can translate into Mountain West championship contention. His hot seat rating of .987 indicates he’s meeting expectations and not on the hot seat, but 2025 will test whether the program can finally break through to elite conference status.

The stakes couldn’t be higher as Colorado State prepares for its final Mountain West season before joining the Pac-12 in 2026.

The Three-Year Evolution: From Rebuilding to Contending

The trajectory of Norvell’s tenure tells a compelling story of program transformation.

His debut 2022 season was brutal but necessary. Going 3-9 while starting three different quarterbacks (all freshmen or redshirt freshmen) and facing a schedule that included a College Football Playoff semifinalist, Michigan, would have broken lesser coaches. Instead, Norvell’s team showed unmistakable improvement, jumping from 247.3 yards of offense in the first half to 324.1 in the second half.

2023 brought heartbreak disguised as progress:

  • A program-first victory over Boise State after a last-second Hail Mary
  • CSU scoring 21 points in the final 4:02 to stun the Broncos
  • Three losses after leading or tied with less than a minute remaining
  • Missing bowl eligibility by the narrowest of margins

Then came 2024’s breakthrough: 8-5 overall, 6-1 in Mountain West play, and a return to bowl games for the first time since 2017.

The Arizona Bowl loss to Miami (OH) stung, but the foundation was undeniably in place.

Coaching Performance Under the Microscope

Norvell’s coaching staff deserves significant credit for maximizing available talent while building sustainable infrastructure.

The 2024 statistical profile reveals a program operating within historical Colorado State norms across most categories. The offense averaged 24.4 points and 387.6 yards per game, while the defense yielded 25.8 points per game. More importantly, the efficiency splits told the real story of coaching effectiveness.

In wins, Colorado State dominated through identity:

  • 32.7 points per game
  • 191.6 rushing yards per game
  • Positive turnover margin (+0.8)
  • Balanced offensive attack

In losses, the coaching challenges became apparent:

  • Just 12.2 points per game
  • 130.6 rushing yards per game
  • Negative turnover margin (-1.4)
  • Over-reliance on passing out of necessity

The 6-1 Mountain West record, including victories over Wyoming, Air Force, and Nevada, proved the coaching staff could prepare teams for conference competition.

But game management issues persisted throughout the season.

The Recruiting Revolution That Changed Everything

One area where Norvell’s coaching excellence shines brightest is recruiting and roster construction.

His recruiting philosophy centers on establishing CSU as “WRU” through his prolific air-raid offense. This approach has yielded remarkable results, with talented wide receivers choosing Colorado State over Power 5 programs. The 2024 recruiting class was ranked first in the Mountain West by 247Sports and fifth overall among Group of Five programs.

The transfer portal strategy has been equally masterful:

  • Brought quarterback Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi from Nevada
  • Added running back Avery Morrow, who rushed for 1,006 yards in 2024
  • Secured multiple defensive contributors
  • Created immediate competitive impact

However, recent portal losses highlight the double-edged nature of modern roster management.

CSU lost linebacker Chase Wilson to West Virginia, edge rusher Gabe Kirschke to Wake Forest, and top receivers Jamari Person and Caleb Goodie. The coaching staff’s ability to develop replacements will significantly impact the success of 2025.

Strategic Adjustments for the Championship Push

Norvell has made decisive moves to address the most glaring weaknesses of the 2024 season.

The biggest change comes on defense, where Norvell announced the departure of defensive coordinator Freddie Banks. Linebacker coach Adam Pilapil will serve as defensive play caller, representing both opportunity and risk. With nine of eleven defensive starters either graduating or transferring, this unit requires complete reconstruction.

Offensive continuity provides stability:

  • Quarterback Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi returns for his junior season
  • Running backs Justin Marshall and Keegan Holles take over the backfield
  • Multiple proven receivers remain despite key departures
  • Offensive line depth has been strengthened through recruiting

Staff promotions signal continued offensive innovation:

  • Matt Mumme elevated to Pass-Game Coordinator
  • Bill Best promoted to Run-Game Coordinator
  • Chase Holbrook promoted to Quarterbacks Coach
  • Mike Goff added as assistant offensive line coach

These moves suggest that Norvell understands the formula that works, while also addressing areas that need improvement.

The 2025 Schedule: Opportunity Meets Challenge

The upcoming schedule presents both validation opportunities and significant obstacles.

The season opener at Washington immediately measures progress against Pac-12 competition. This game could set the tone for the entire campaign, providing early indication of whether Colorado State can compete at its future conference level.

Key Mountain West home games offer momentum-building chances:

  • Washington State visits Fort Collins
  • Fresno State comes to town
  • Air Force provides rivalry intensity
  • Hawaii offers winnable conference points

Road challenges will likely determine championship aspirations:

  • San Diego State has traditionally been problematic
  • Boise State remains the conference’s gold standard
  • Wyoming provides Border War intensity

Norvell’s coaching staff must prove they can execute consistently away from Fort Collins, where the 2024 team struggled at 2-4 in road and neutral games.

The Three Critical Areas Demanding Improvement

Improving the pass defense isn’t optional for championship contention.

Allowing 234.7 passing yards per game in 2024 represented a fatal flaw against quality opponents. The coaching staff’s ability to develop young defensive backs and implement effective schemes against spread offenses will directly determine conference title hopes. Transfer additions aim to provide immediate help, but development of existing talent remains crucial.

Game management and discipline require immediate attention:

  • 6.5 penalties per game cost valuable field position
  • Negative turnover margin (-0.1) decided close games
  • Penalty issues spiked to 8.6 per game in losses

Situational coaching needs refinement across multiple areas:

  • 63% red zone touchdown rate fell below FBS average
  • Short-yardage conversion rate was inconsistent
  • Late-game execution failed in crucial moments

The coaching staff has implemented penalty tracking systems and leadership workshops specifically designed to address these concerns.

Historical Context and Championship Expectations

Norvell’s overall FBS record of 49-47 (.510) includes a 16-21 (.432) mark through his first three Colorado State seasons (3-9 in 2022, 5-7 in 2023, 8-5 in 2024).

But his Nevada tenure provides the blueprint for sustained success. From 2017-2021, Norvell went 33-26 with the Wolf Pack, making four bowl games and posting winning records in his final four seasons. He developed two-time Mountain West Offensive Player of the Year Carson Strong and proved he could build consistent conference contenders.

The 2024 statistical performance aligned with historical Colorado State averages, indicating that the program has returned to its baseline competitiveness. However, Norvell’s mandate involves exceeding historical norms, not merely matching them.

Championship expectations are now realistic rather than aspirational.

The Bottom Line: Everything Points to a Breakthrough Season

Jay Norvell enters 2025 with every tool necessary for championship contention.

The coaching foundation has been meticulously constructed through three seasons of strategic building. Offensive continuity provides stability, while defensive changes offer upside potential. Recruiting momentum continues to build toward the Pac-12 transition, and schedule opportunities exist for significant wins.

Success requires the coaching staff to prove several critical capabilities:

  • Developing young defensive talent quickly
  • Maintaining offensive efficiency despite receiver departures
  • Implementing defensive improvements that address glaring weaknesses
  • Managing games better in crucial moments

The groundwork has been laid through patient, intelligent program building.

Now comes the ultimate test of whether that foundation can support championship-level performance when everything is on the line.

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San Diego State Football 2025: Will the AztecFAST Attack Finally Deliver?

Mark Haines on July 18, 2025

San Diego State Football’s Sean Lewis enters year two with everything on the line.

The 2025 season represents a make-or-break moment for San Diego State football. After a disappointing 3-9 debut campaign, Lewis faces mounting pressure to prove his AztecFAST attack can translate innovative concepts into actual wins. With significant roster turnover at quarterback and a challenging schedule ahead, this season will determine whether the program advances or regresses.

The margin for error has disappeared completely.

The Danny O’Neil Departure Changes Everything

Danny O’Neil’s transfer to Wisconsin in December sent shockwaves through the program.

The first true freshman starting quarterback in San Diego State’s Division I history, O’Neil showed genuine promise despite the team’s struggles. He threw for 2,181 yards, 12 touchdowns, and six interceptions while battling injuries throughout the season. His departure wasn’t about football performance.

“That’s a big thing to me, being able to play in front of family,” O’Neil explained. “I wouldn’t say I was homesick. I just want to be able to have some relatives be able to come see me at games.”

The loss creates massive uncertainty at the position that matters most.

Four Quarterbacks, One Starting Job

Lewis responded aggressively to O’Neil’s departure by completely rebuilding the quarterback room.

The competition features an intriguing mix of experience and potential:

  • Jayden Denegal (Michigan transfer): 6-foot-5, 235 pounds, spent three seasons backing up J.J. McCarthy
  • Bert Emanuel Jr. (Central Michigan transfer): 6-foot-3, 235 pounds, son of former NFL player, dynamic runner
  • Kyle Crum (returning junior): Only familiar face, completed 5 of 17 passes in limited action
  • JP Mialovski (true freshman): Early enrollee from Long Beach, threw for 4,365 yards in high school

Denegal brings the most traditional quarterback skills to the competition.

“The biggest thing I could say is, in my opinion, he has one of the greatest one-play mindsets out there,” Denegal said of McCarthy. “He doesn’t really care. Last play isn’t going to affect his next play. That part of his game is something that I admire.” Former Michigan coach Jim Harbaugh praised Denegal, saying he “throws the ball extremely well” and is “pretty darn athletic.”

Emanuel Jr. offers a completely different dimension with his rushing ability.

The Houston native has carried 145 times for 844 yards and 12 touchdowns during his Central Michigan career. “Bert’s ability to run… That’s where he is at his strongest. I’m very excited to see us in a situation where we get to some of the quarterback run-game stuff,” said quarterbacks coach Chris Johnson.

The winner will inherit an offense desperate for stability.

Two Defensive Stars Anchor the Foundation

While the offense undergoes massive reconstruction, the defense returns elite-level talent.

Edge rusher Trey White recorded 12.5 sacks and ranked fifth nationally despite playing on a struggling team. Linebacker Tano Letuli led the Aztecs with 70 tackles and brings veteran leadership to a unit that needs dramatic improvement.

Both players stayed committed despite transfer portal opportunities.

“They are loyal to the soil and they are loyal to the work they’ve done and put in,” Lewis said. “They’re committed to that locker room. They’re not interested in winning only when it’s convenient here at San Diego State.”

The secondary also shows promise with cornerback Chris Johnson expected to emerge as one of the Mountain West’s top cover men. Safety tandem Eric Butler and Dalesean Staley brings experience to a unit that recorded just one interception in 2024.

These defensive anchors must carry increased responsibility in 2025.

The Post-Marquez Cooper Offensive Challenge

Losing 1,274-yard rusher Marquez Cooper creates another massive hole in the offensive foundation.

Cooper’s production represented nearly the entire rushing attack in 2024. No other running back exceeded 100 yards or scored a rushing touchdown. The receiving corps returns its top three targets, but none eclipsed 700 yards receiving.

Lewis acknowledged the challenge while expressing confidence in the depth chart.

“Obviously he is a bell cow, in terms of yards and the production that he had,” Lewis said of Cooper. “But Cam Davis and Lucky Sutton did a great job of developing. They’re going to have an opportunity through winter condition and spring ball to cement themselves as the guy.”

The offensive line faces a reconstruction project following the medical retirement of center Brayden Bryant.

Schedule Provides Both Opportunity and Danger

The 2025 schedule features a mix of winnable games and potential disasters.

Early-season matchups could set the tone for the entire campaign:

  • August 28 vs. Stony Brook: Season opener at Snapdragon Stadium should build confidence
  • September 6 at Washington State: First real test on the road in Pullman
  • September 20 vs. California: Chance to make a statement against a former Pac-12 program
  • September 27 at Northern Illinois: Dangerous road trip to DeKalb

The Mountain West slate includes challenging road games at Nevada, Fresno State, and New Mexico.

Lewis noted his team’s close losses in 2024 as a reason for optimism.

At Mountain West Media Days, he emphasized that “multiple one-possession games. Three games were lost by 9 points total.” Those narrow margins suggest minor improvements could translate to several additional wins.

The schedule could create early momentum or early disaster.

The Navy SEAL Philosophy

Lewis has implemented an unconventional team-building approach involving Navy SEAL training sessions.

The philosophy centers on “hard things done together in a beautiful environment” with sessions conducted at Coronado Beach. Lewis conducted “three different iterations of exercises and again in micro teams and position groups and offense, defense, different challenges” during winter conditioning.

This unique approach reflects Lewis’s belief that mental toughness will separate his program.

Pressure Mounts on Sean Lewis

With a hot seat rating of 0.531, Lewis enters a pivotal second season.

While his position isn’t immediately threatened, another disappointing campaign could change the dynamic quickly. The transfer portal era demands faster results than traditional coaching timelines allowed.

Lewis’s track record at Kent State provides reasons for optimism.

He transformed the Golden Flashes from a perennial bottom-feeder into a MAC contender, posting more seven-win seasons than the program achieved in the previous 30 years combined. His innovative offensive concepts garnered national attention before his stint in Colorado.

But San Diego State fans won’t accept another three-win season.

The Verdict: Everything Depends on the Quarterback

The 2025 season will be defined by whoever wins the quarterback competition.

The defense returns enough talent to compete in the Mountain West if the offense can generate consistent production. The schedule features winnable early games that can help build momentum for conference play.

Lewis faces a simple reality: college football patience has shortened dramatically.

The foundation exists for improvement with defensive stars White and Letuli, an improved offensive line, and depth in the running back room. The receiving corps brings system familiarity despite lacking star power.

Success requires solving the quarterback puzzle and finding the right balance between tempo and efficiency.

If Lewis can generate consistent offensive production, the Aztecs have the defensive talent to compete for a bowl berth. If the quarterback situation remains unsettled, another long season awaits.

The AztecFAST attack gets one more chance to prove its effectiveness.

The Next Billion Dollar Game

College football isn’t just a sport anymore—it’s a high-stakes market where information asymmetry separates winners from losers. While the average fan sees only what happens between the sidelines, real insiders trade on the hidden dynamics reshaping programs from the inside out.

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Why subscribe? Because in markets this inefficient, information creates alpha. Our subscribers knew which coaches were dead men walking months before the mainstream media caught on. They understood which programs were quietly transforming their recruiting apparatuses while competitors slept.

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The Numbers That Don’t Add Up – Mountain West Championship Preview

Mark Haines on December 4, 2024

Boise State and UNLV meet Friday night for the Mountain West Championship.

In the pristine December air of Las Vegas, two college football programs are about to collide in a way that defies conventional wisdom. One is Boise State, the upstart powerhouse that has been terrorizing the Mountain West Conference for years by systematically destroying opponents. The other is UNLV, a program that was a statistical asterisk just two years ago. It is the kind of team that makes gamblers rich by betting against them.

The transformation of UNLV under Barry Odom is the kind of story that makes sports executives nervous. It suggests that all their complex formulas for success – the million-dollar facilities, the decades of tradition, the elaborate recruiting networks – might matter less than finding the right person with the right idea at the right time. Odom, a defensive specialist with a track record of raising football programs from the dead, has turned UNLV into something that would have been unthinkable 24 months ago: a legitimate threat to Boise State’s dominance.

The numbers tell a story that feels almost too neat to be true. Boise State, led by their own coaching prodigy Spencer Danielson, has been a machine of efficiency: 478.3 yards per game, 40.6 points scored, and a running back named Ashton Jeanty who seems to have been engineered in a laboratory specifically to break tackles (2,288 rushing yards, 28 touchdowns, and the kind of statistics that make NFL scouts reach for their phones). Their quarterback, Maddux Madsen, plays with the kind of careful precision (21 touchdowns, 3 interceptions) that makes offensive coordinators sleep well at night.

But here’s where it gets interesting: UNLV, the traditional underdog, has built something suspiciously similar. Their offense, anchored by the dual-threat quarterback Hajj-Malik Williams, puts up 434 yards and 38.7 points per game. It’s less than Boise State, but not by the margin you’d expect from a program that was recently college football’s equivalent of a penny stock.

Allegiant Stadium, site of the Mountain West Championship game

The real story, though, lies in a number that doesn’t show up in the standard statistics: 22 versus 14. That’s the turnover differential between these teams, with UNLV’s defense showing a predatory instinct for creating chaos that their more established opponents haven’t matched. It’s the kind of number that makes you wonder if there’s something more interesting happening here than just a good football team playing another good football team.

When these teams met earlier this season, Boise State won 29-24, the close score that tells you everything and nothing about what might happen in a rematch. It’s the type of game that Las Vegas oddsmakers hate – when the traditional metrics suggest one outcome, but the intangibles point to another.

The wild card in this is special teams, UNLV’s secret weapon. Their kicker, Caden Chittenden, has been converting field goals at an 80.6% clip, the kind of reliability that wins championships. And then there’s Jai’Den Thomas, who has turned kick returns into a form of performance art, including one touchdown that made highlight reels across the country.

As the sun sets over Las Vegas on December 6th, these two teams will take the field for a game that feels less like a conference championship and more like a referendum on how football programs are built. On one side, you have Boise State, with its decade of dominance and its assembly-line production of victories. On the other side is UNLV, the rapid risers who have turned chaos into a competitive advantage.

The beauty of this matchup lies in its unpredictability. It’s the kind of game that makes you question everything you think you know about college football – about tradition, momentum, and the way success is supposed to look. And maybe that’s exactly what makes it worth watching.

Let’s Break It Down – Season Overview

Boise State has had a remarkable season, losing only to Oregon in a close 37-34 contest early in the year. The Broncos have since reeled off 10 straight victories, including a 29-24 win over UNLV in their regular-season meeting. UNLV, under second-year head coach Barry Odom, has engineered a dramatic turnaround, with their only losses coming against Syracuse and Boise State.

Offensive Firepower

Both teams bring potent offenses to the championship game:

Boise State

  • Averaging 478.3 yards and 40.6 points per game
  • Balanced attack with 224.8 passing yards and 253.5 rushing yards per game
  • QB Maddux Madsen: 2556 passing yards, 21 TDs, 3 INTs
  • RB Ashton Jeanty: 2288 rushing yards, 28 TDs, 102 receiving yards, 1 receiving TD

UNLV

  • Averaging 434 yards and 38.7 points per game
  • Run-heavy offense with 254.1 rushing yards per game
  • QB Hajj-Malik Williams: 1735 passing yards, 17 TDs, 4 INTs, 768 rushing yards, 9 rushing TDs
  • RB Jai’Den Thomas: 832 rushing yards, 7 TDs, 85 receiving yards, 1 receiving TD

Defensive Battle

While both teams are known for their offensive prowess, their defenses have also played crucial roles in their success:

  • Boise State allows 364.8 total yards per game
  • UNLV gives up 349.3 total yards per game
  • The Rebels have been more opportunistic, forcing 22 turnovers compared to the Broncos’ 14

Special Teams Edge

UNLV holds a slight advantage in special teams:

  • Kicker Caden Chittenden: 25/31 FGs (80.6%), 51/52 PATs (98.1%)
  • Punt returner Jacob De Jesus: 20 returns, 163 yards, 8.2 avg
  • Kick returner Jai’Den Thomas: 3 returns, 124 yards, 1 TD

Coaching Matchup

This game features an intriguing coaching battle between Boise State’s Spencer Danielson and UNLV’s Barry Odom:

  • Danielson (2nd year): 14-2 overall record, faith-based approach, emphasizes player development
  • Odom (2nd year at UNLV): 19-7 record at UNLV, defensive expertise, known for quick program turnarounds

Key Factors

  1. Boise State’s rushing attack vs. UNLV’s run defense
  2. UNLV’s ability to force turnovers against a typically careful Boise State offense
  3. Special teams play, particularly in the return game
  4. Quarterback play under pressure in a high-stakes environment

Prediction – The Math of Inevitability

Suppose you were building a model to predict this game’s outcome. In that case, you’d probably focus on the obvious: Boise State’s superior yardage, their higher scoring average, and their previous victory over UNLV. You’d be doing exactly what most analysts do – and missing the point entirely.

The hidden pattern here lies in the convergence of three numbers that nobody’s talking about: UNLV’s +8 turnover margin advantage, their 80.6% field goal conversion rate, and the 5-point margin of their previous loss to Boise State. When you map these data points against similar conference championship games over the past decade, an interesting pattern emerges – teams with superior turnover margins and reliable kicking games tend to outperform their regular season results in championship settings.

The Las Vegas factor is another variable that spreadsheets can’t capture. UNLV isn’t just playing at home; they’re playing in a city that’s redefined itself more times than any other in America. Vegas’s team should do the same.

The smart money says Boise State by a touchdown. The numbers that don’t make the headlines suggest something else: UNLV 31, Boise State 27.

It’s the kind of prediction that makes traditional analysts uncomfortable – which is precisely why it might be right.

What’s your take on this game? Let us know here

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