Tulane Football in 2025: Fighting a $15 Million Gunfight with a $2 Million Knife

Tulane football, the AAC Championship runner-up, just lost its star quarterback to an $8 million NIL deal.

This is the new reality for Tulane and head coach Jon Sumrall as they enter the 2025 season: competing against programs with financial resources far exceeding their own. Despite reaching the AAC Championship in Sumrall’s first season, the Green Wave now find themselves in a challenging position, rebuilding after watching their top performers get poached by larger programs with deeper NIL pockets.

“When you have a — call it a couple-million dollar roster versus a $15 million dollar roster you’re going sometimes into a gun fight with a knife,” Sumrall bluntly stated at the New Orleans Book Festival, as John Brice of Football Scoop reported.

But Sumrall isn’t backing down.

The Mass Exodus: How Much Talent Did Tulane Lose?

Quarterback Darian Mensah led the AAC in completion percentage and transferred to Duke for a reported $8 million NIL deal.

That’s just the beginning of Tulane’s exodus:

  • QB Darian Mensah: Left for Duke after throwing for 2,723 yards and 22 TDs with a 65.9% completion rate
  • RB Makhi Hughes: Hughes departed for Oregon after being the team’s workhorse in 2024
  • WR Room: All three top receivers – Mario Williams, Dontae Fleming, and Yulkeith Brown – transferred out
  • TE Alex Bauman: Moved to Miami, removing another key receiving option
  • Additional Losses: RBs Shaadie Clayton-Johnson (North Texas) and Trey Cornist (Central Michigan)
  • Defense: DL Parker Petersen transferred to Wisconsin

These weren’t just role players—they were the core of an offense that averaged 405 yards per game and was remarkable for its efficiency (62.9% completion rate) and discipline (just 1.1 turnovers per game).

How do you replace that much production in one off-season?

Sumrall’s Portal Strategy: 23 New Transfers to the Rescue

“We’re going to find every way we can to be successful and win,” Sumrall insists. “I’m biased and I may have blinders on and so I’m going to compete to win against whoever we play. Anyone, anywhere, anytime.”

His actions back up those words, with Tulane bringing in 23 transfers to rebuild the roster:

  • T.J. Finley (QB): A 6’7″ pocket passer with experience at LSU, Auburn, Texas State, and Western Kentucky
  • Maurice Turner (RB): Louisville transfer stepping into a depleted backfield
  • Jimmy Calloway (WR): Another Louisville transfer tasked with rebuilding the receiving corps
  • Defensive Line Reinforcements: Eliyt Nairne (Liberty), Trevon Alpine (Texas Tech), and Derrick Sheppard (UAB)
  • Jordan Hall (OL): Liberty transfer brought in to strengthen the offensive line

While the offense undergoes a complete rebuild, the defensive front seven might be stronger than last year’s unit that allowed 145.8 rushing yards per game.

But will it be enough?

Position-by-Position: Where Tulane Stands in 2025

Quarterbacks: The Veteran Journeyman

T.J. Finley brings much-needed experience, but can the traditional pocket passer replicate Mensah’s dual-threat efficiency?

The transition from Mensah to Finley represents a complete style change:

  • Mensah was mobile and efficient (166.7 passer rating)
  • Finley is a prototypical pocket passer with a big arm
  • Early-season growing pains seem inevitable
  • The ceiling remains high if chemistry develops with new receivers

Verdict: 🟡 Different style, similar potential production with patience

Running Backs: Starting From Scratch

The backfield faces the steepest rebuild on the entire roster.

Maurice Turner arrives from Louisville to a room that’s lost virtually all of its production:

  • Hughes has gone to Oregon
  • Clayton-Johnson transferred to North Texas
  • Cornist moved to Central Michigan
  • A committee approach seems likely in 2025
  • Early-season production could be inconsistent

Verdict: 🔴 Complete rebuild required

Wide Receivers: Who Steps Up?

Jimmy Calloway and other portal additions face enormous pressure with all top contributors gone.

The receiver reset is total:

  • All three top producers from 2024 transferred out
  • Chemistry with Finley must develop quickly
  • Unproven players will need to step into major roles
  • Expect new offensive wrinkles to help ease the transition

Verdict: 🔴 Major question marks remain

Defensive Line: The Bright Spot

This unit might be stronger in 2025 than it was in 2024.

The additions through the portal should create a more disruptive front:

  • Nairne, Alpine, and Sheppard bring experience and size
  • The 2024 unit was solid but unspectacular (145.8 rush yards/game)
  • Increased pressure could help the entire defense
  • Potential to be the team’s strength in 2025

Verdict: 🟢 Potential to be the team’s strength

Linebackers and Secondary: Stability Matters

These units remain relatively intact from the 2024 squad.

The defensive back seven provides needed continuity:

  • Minimal losses to the transfer portal
  • The secondary allowed 177.7 passing yards per game in 2024
  • More pressure up front could create more turnover opportunities
  • Likely to carry the team early while the offense develops

Verdict: 🟡 Solid but not spectacular

The 2025 Schedule: Opportunity and Challenge

Tulane’s path through 2025 includes fascinating storylines and significant tests.

Non-Conference Headliners:

  • Aug. 30: Northwestern (Home)
  • Sept. 13: Duke (Home) – Mensah returns to New Orleans
  • Sept. 20: Ole Miss (Away) – Major SEC challenge

Critical Conference Games:

  • Oct. 18: Army (Home) – 2024 AAC Championship rematch
  • Oct. 30: UTSA (Away) – Thursday night vs. rising conference power
  • Nov. 7: Memphis (Away) – Always a challenging road environment

Two strategically placed bye weeks (Oct. 4 and Oct. 25) should help the coaching staff make necessary adjustments throughout the season.

Can Tulane Find Sumrall’s “Secret Sauce”?

“Can you be the best in your league and find that secret sauce at the end where there’s chemistry and cohesion and culture that maybe beats somebody that may have a touch more talent than you?” Sumrall asked at the New Orleans Book Festival.

This question cuts to the heart of Tulane’s 2025 season.

Despite the coaching stability (Sumrall extended his contract in December 2024 despite Power 4 interest), the roster turnover creates enormous uncertainty. Integration of 23 new transfers tests even the best coaching staff.

The “secret sauce” of chemistry, cohesion, and culture faces its ultimate test.

Realistic Expectations: What Success Looks Like in 2025

With massive roster turnover and a challenging schedule, Tulane fans should recalibrate expectations.

Here’s what to watch for:

  • Early Growing Pains: September could be rough as the offense develops chemistry
  • Defensive Emergence: The defense may need to carry the team early
  • Midseason Improvement: If Finley settles in, the team could hit stride by mid-October
  • Bowl Eligibility: Securing six wins would represent success in this transition year
  • Conference Contention: Returning to the AAC Championship would be an impressive achievement

The Existential Question: Is Cinderella Dead in the NIL Era?

“Is it dead? I don’t know about that, yet. But, it’s challenging,” Sumrall said when asked if the Cinderella story is still possible in modern college football.

This is the existential question facing programs like Tulane’s.

How do you build sustainable success when your best players become immediate targets for financial packages you can’t match? When Sumrall says, “they’re able to just steal players from you left and right,” he’s describing a fundamental challenge to programs outside the Power 4 conferences.

Tulane’s 2025 season isn’t just about wins and losses—it’s about proving that a sustainable model exists for programs with limited resources in the NIL era.

Suppose Sumrall can develop undervalued players, effectively use the transfer portal, and build a strong culture to retain at least some key contributors. In that case, the Green Wave might establish a blueprint for similar programs.

For 2025, temper your expectations on the field.

But watch closely for signs that Sumrall is building something that can withstand the annual talent exodus that programs like Tulane now face in modern college football.

After all, he’s attempting something extraordinary: bringing a knife to a gunfight – and trying to win anyway.

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Week 12 Hot Seat Rankings Reveal The New Math of Firing Coaches: When Balance Sheets Trump Box Scores

Graphic by Tony Altimore @TJAltimore on X

When Money Changes Everything: College Football’s New Math

If you want to understand what’s happening in college football right now, forget about the polls, the playoff rankings, and even the win-loss records. Instead, study Tony Altimore’s (@TJAltimore on X) financial visualization of athletic department debt. This document looks less like a sports analysis and more like a hedge fund’s risk assessment of distressed assets. What Altimore has captured, in clean lines and horrifying clarity, is the moment when college football’s financial chickens have come home to roost.

The numbers are staggering enough to make a Wall Street quant nervous. Major athletic departments have the kind of revenue shortfalls that would make a leveraged buyout specialist think twice, all while trying to maintain the facade that their business model isn’t fundamentally broken. Our Hot Seat Rankings arrive in this financial maelstrom, a list that increasingly reads like a collection of toxic assets nobody knows how to value.

Consider the range of buyouts in play: Marshall could rid itself of Charles Huff for the price of a mid-level administrator’s salary ($125,917), while Baylor would need to liquidate the equivalent of a small endowment ($20-25 million) to move on from Dave Aranda. In any rational market, these numbers represent the cost of doing business. But in 2024’s college football economy, where athletic departments are juggling NIL collectives, revenue sharing, the House Settlement, facility arms races, and operational deficits that would make a venture capitalist blanch, even UMass’s relatively modest $800,000 obligation to Don Brown looks less like a buyout and more like a luxury they might not be able to afford.

We’re witnessing the emergence of a new market inefficiency: coaches who become unsackable not through their success but through the financial implications of their failure. In a world where half our Hot Seat candidates owe their job security to their buyout clauses rather than their win percentages, we’ve entered a realm where being too expensive to fire has become its own kind of competitive advantage.

Welcome to college football’s new normal, where balance sheets matter more than playbooks, and the most important numbers aren’t on the scoreboard but in the fine print of contracts that increasingly look like they were designed by derivatives traders rather than athletic directors.

Here’s our Top 10 for this week, plus a little insider information on each:

1. Don Brown – UMass

Don Brown sits atop college football’s hot seat list in a way that perfectly captures the industry’s bias for action over patience. UMass administrators, energized by their MAC invitation and staring at a manageable $800,000 buyout, seem eager to start fresh before the 2025 conference transition. The kind of institutional momentum creates its own gravity – the desire to make a splashy hire before joining a new conference to signal ambition and commitment to a brighter future. But there’s a fascinating market inefficiency at play here that nobody’s talking about: Brown might be the rare coach whose value to the program is about to increase precisely when they’re most inclined to remove him. His decades of MAC experience as a defensive coordinator at Central Michigan and Connecticut (during its MAC era) and his deep New England recruiting roots represent institutional knowledge that money can’t easily buy. UMass is preparing to make a classic institutional mistake: paying to remove expertise they’ll need to acquire again, all in service of a fresh start that might not be as fresh as they imagine. After all, the next coach will face the same fundamental challenges – navigating one more year of independence before transitioning to the MAC – with less experience in both contexts.

2. Charles Huff – Marshall

Huff’s position has improved slightly with a recent win, but he is in year 4 of a 5-year contract, and his small $125,917 buyout means Marshall could make a change without significant financial strain. His hot seat status remains high, though the recent win may have bought him some time.

3. Stan Drayton – Temple

This week, a 52 – 6 loss to Tulane has intensified the pressure on Drayton. With no specified buyout disclosed, Temple might have flexibility in making a coaching change if they decide to go that route. The program’s struggles in the American Athletic Conference likely contribute to his hot seat status.

4. Trent Dilfer – UAB

Dilfer’s hot seat status has worsened with another loss. His $4,116,667 buyout is significant for UAB, which might give him more time. However, his unusual comments, media interactions, and poor on-field results have quickly put him in a precarious position despite being only in his second year.

5. Dave Aranda – Baylor

Despite a bye week, Aranda remains on the hot seat. His substantial $20-25 million buyout is a major factor in Baylor’s decision-making process. Recent wins have improved his standing, and there’s an industry consensus that he’s trending towards returning in 2025, partly due to the financial implications of a coaching change.

6. Sam Pittman – Arkansas

Sam Pittman moves down to #6 on our Hot Seat Rankings in what might be college football’s most emotionally complicated coaching situation. He’s the kind of figure who makes fans want to invite him over for dinner while simultaneously wanting to throw their remote through the TV during games. His Arkansas team has shown improvement this year, but in a way that feels like watching a gifted student consistently turn in C+ work – there’s something both promising and maddening about it all. The blowout loss to Ole Miss exposed the fundamental disconnect: a team with SEC talent playing with the discipline of a midnight pickup game. And here’s where it gets interesting – and credit to Jackson Collier of the Hardwood Hogs Podcast (@JCHoops on X) for surfacing a contract provision that adds another layer to this Southern football soap opera: If Pittman can scrape together seven wins between Louisiana Tech and one more victory (including a potential bowl game), he triggers an automatic raise and extension. It’s the kind of clause that transforms Arkansas’s $10 million buyout decision from merely expensive to existentially complex. The boosters’ dilemma is almost Shakespearean: How do you fire someone everyone likes who’s making the team better but not as much better as it should be? Especially when the cost of doing so keeps threatening to go up?

7. Sonny Cumbie – Louisiana Tech

A loss this week has likely increased the pressure on Cumbie. With a $1,625,000 buyout, Louisiana Tech has some flexibility if it chooses to make a change. The program’s performance in Conference USA will determine his future.

8. Kevin Wilson – Tulsa

Wilson’s first season at Tulsa has been challenging, but a recent comeback win against UTSA may have improved his standing. His buyout details aren’t specified, but Tulsa’s financial situation and patience with new coaches could influence his job security.

9. Ryan Walters – Purdue

Despite the most recent 45-0 loss to Ohio State, reports suggest Walters is expected to get more time at Purdue. His $9,590,625 buyout and the administration’s recognition of NIL challenges in the Big Ten could provide him additional job security despite the team’s struggles this season.

10. Hugh Freeze – Auburn

Freeze’s $20,312,500 buyout is a significant factor in his job security. Auburn’s recent performance and Freeze’s past success at Ole Miss are considerations. While he’s on the hot seat, the financial implications of a coaching change might give him more time to turn the program around.

What’s your take? Let us know here

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