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Week 15 Coaches Hot Seat Rankings – Breaking Down the Top 5

Mark Haines on December 3, 2024

Welcome to our breakdown of the Top 5 ranked coaches on the Week 15 Coaches Hot Seat Rankings.

In the era of social media and team message boards, College football communities typically fall into three categories:

Picture the modern college football landscape as a digital Roman Colosseum, where three distinct tribes gather daily to pass judgment on their gladiators. I’ve spent months studying these tribes, fascinated by how their collective voice can determine the fate of multimillion-dollar coaching careers with the force of an emperor’s thumb.

First, you have the Sunshine Pumpers – college football’s eternal optimists, whose rose-tinted view of their program would make Pollyanna seem cynical. They’re the ones who’d watch their team’s practice facility burn to the ground and declare it a strategic move to improve ventilation. Their unwavering positivity isn’t just amusing; it’s a psychological defense mechanism worth millions to beleaguered athletic directors who need someone, anyone, to keep buying season tickets.

Then there are the Negative Nellies, the digital descendants of Ancient Greek tragedy choruses. These people have turned catastrophizing into an art form and see an upset loss to a rival as evidence of civilization’s collapse. They don’t just want their coach fired; they want him launched into the sun, preferably before halftime.

But the real power brokers? They’re the Middle Majority – college football’s silent jury. These are the clear-eyed realists who still remember that this is, ultimately, a game played by 20-year-olds. Lose their support, and a coach’s career expectancy drops faster than a team’s ranking after a loss to an FCS opponent.

As we examine this week’s coaching hot seat rankings, remember: these three tribes aren’t just posting on message boards – they’re reshaping the power dynamics of a $8 billion industry, one complaint thread at a time.

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Targeting Winners: College Football’s Day of Reckoning

Mark Haines on November 29, 2024

When History Comes Due: College Football’s Day of Reckoning

On the final Saturday of November 2024, college football will remind us why it remains America’s most compelling social experiment. In four different stadiums, eight teams will engage in a ritual that’s equal parts sporting event and psychological warfare. These aren’t just games—they’re settling accounts, tests of collective will, and exercises in mass delusion, where entire states convince themselves that the impossible is probable.

In South Carolina, two programs that share nothing but geography and mutual contempt will try to prove that statistics are just numbers on a page. In Columbus, Ohio State faces the cruel irony of finally getting a vulnerable Michigan team after three years of losses, only to discover that beating a wounded rival might be the most challenging task. In Los Angeles, USC will attempt to salvage a disappointing season by derailing Notre Dame’s playoff dreams, proving once again that nothing satisfies quite like ruining someone else’s perfect ending. And in Eugene, Oregon stands ready to exorcise three years of frustration against a Washington program that’s fallen from national championship contender to cautionary tale in less time than it takes to earn a college degree.

Each of these games carries its own particular strain of madness. Together, they form a perfect case study in how rational human beings – coaches, players, and millions of fans – can convince themselves that history, statistics, and probability are merely suggestions rather than laws. In short, it’s everything that makes college football the most irrational, and therefore most human, of our sports.

The Numbers That Lie: A Tale of Two Programs – South Carolina at Clemson

In the gathering dusk of late November, two football programs circle each other like prizefighters, each convinced they’ve decoded the other’s fatal flaw. The statistics tell one story: Clemson, the higher-ranked team with the more prolific offense, should win this game. But anyone who’s spent time in South Carolina knows that numbers, like the sweet tea served at every diner from Charleston to Greenville, can be deceptive.

The conventional wisdom says Clemson has the edge. Their quarterback, Cade Klubnik, throws for nearly fifty more yards per game than his counterpart. Their offense generates more total yards, touchdowns, and everything that should matter. We could all go home now if football games were played on spreadsheets.

But here’s where it gets interesting.

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Coaches Hot Seat is Targeting Winners for Week 10

Mark Haines on October 31, 2024

Okay, folks, get ready. It’s that time of the week again when we dive headfirst into the chaotic, beautiful mess that is college football. Friday’s episode of the Targeting Winners podcast (available on Spotify, Apple, or wherever you get your podcasts) is coming at you hot, and trust me, you don’t want to miss this. They’ll be talking Xs and Os, dissecting matchups, and uncovering those hidden gems that’ll have you cashing in come Saturday.

Today, I’ll share my weekend bets and prep with you.  I’m not just throwing darts at a board. I’m breaking down film, analyzing stats, and getting into the nitty-gritty.

This week, I’ve got three games I’m reviewing: San Diego State at Boise State, Ohio State at Penn State, and Pitt at SMU. We’re talking potential upsets, high-scoring shootouts, and maybe even a bit of old-fashioned smashmouth football. So read my breakdown below, make your picks, and fire up Spotify, Apple, or wherever you get your podcasts on Friday afternoon. Then, get ready to ride the wave with us.

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Why Riley & Day Are Poised to Shatter Expectations (Or Crash and Burn)

Mark Haines on August 28, 2024

The Coaches on the (Supposed) Hot Seat: Lincoln Riley and Ryan Day
The college football season hasn’t started, and the “hot seat” talk is already in full swing. Pundits and fans are sharpening their pitchforks, ready to skew any coach who doesn’t deliver immediate, flawless results. Lincoln Riley at USC and Ryan Day at Ohio State are two names that keep popping up. Let’s examine whether these coaches genuinely feel the heat or it’s just the usual preseason hype.

Lincoln Riley: The USC Savior or a Trojan Horse?
On the surface, it seems absurd to suggest Lincoln Riley is on the hot seat. He led USC to a Pac-12 Championship appearance and coached Caleb Williams to a Heisman Trophy in his first season. But the Trojans stumbled to an 8-5 record in 2023. While still potent with Williams at the helm, the defense was a sieve, and the offense couldn’t overcome the defensive woes. The sting of losses to Notre Dame and UCLA still lingers (how do you not have your team “hyped” to play your two biggest rivals?), and some question whether Riley is the right man for the job.

So, is Riley’s seat hot?
Not really. Let’s be honest; he inherited a program in shambles. Rebuilding takes time, and Riley has made significant progress. The move to the Big Ten is a new ballgame, and he deserves a chance to adapt. His track record speaks for itself – the man knows how to develop quarterbacks and attract top talent. USC’s administration didn’t shell out millions for a quick fix; they’re invested in Riley’s long-term vision.

But, there’s always a ‘but’…

  • Winning cures all. Riley’s current winning percentage is .704, barely above the acceptable USC minimum of .691(calculated by Coaches Hot Seat.)
  • USC isn’t just about winning; it’s about tradition. Riley needs to embrace the legacy of coaches like Jones, McKay, Robinson, and Carroll. They set the standard at USC.
  • Recruiting matters. Southern California is a goldmine of talent. Riley must focus on locking down the local kids, not chasing pipe dreams nationwide.
  • The Notre Dame rivalry is sacred. Riley’s talk of ditching it and being “more like Alabama” is blasphemy to Trojan fans. USC has its own unique identity, and Riley needs to respect that.
  • • It’s the little things, too. Assigning jersey numbers with history, opening up to the media, and stop whining about the schedule. Act like you’re a $10 million coach at USC.

Ryan Day: The Buckeye Burden
Ryan Day’s resume at Ohio State is stellar: a 55-8 record and two Big Ten championships. But those three consecutive losses to Michigan? They’re a scarlet letter on his otherwise impressive tenure. The Buckeye faithful crave dominance, especially against their arch-nemesis. The pressure to beat Michigan and win a national championship is immense.

Is Day’s job in jeopardy?
Not yet. He’s consistently delivered success, and the team is primed for another strong season. The expanded College Football Playoff gives them more chances to contend for a title, even if they slip up against Michigan. Day’s track record and the program’s strength suggest he’s not on the hot seat…yet.

But the pressure is mounting…

  • Losing to Michigan again would be catastrophic. It’s not just about the rivalry; it’s about maintaining the program’s aura of invincibility.
  • Missing the playoffs, even with the expanded format, would be a major letdown after a hyped offseason.
  • A blowout loss in a big game could raise questions about Day’s leadership and ability to make adjustments.
  • Any signs of player discontent or locker room issues could snowball into a full-blown crisis.
  • A significant decline in performance, with multiple losses and a lack of competitiveness, could seal Day’s fate.

The Bottom Line
Both Riley and Day are under the microscope. But for now, their seats are lukewarm at best. They have the talent, the resources, and the support to turn things around. The 2024 season will be a defining one for both coaches. Will they rise to the occasion, or will the hot seat rumors become a self-fulfilling prophecy? Only time will tell.

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