Blog Article

The Most Dangerous Thing About Winning A Championship? Everyone Expects You To Do It Again.

Mark Haines on June 6, 2025

Ohio State is about to learn this lesson the hard way.

The Buckeyes just pulled off one of the most improbable championship runs in college football history. They lost twice in the regular season. They didn’t win their conference. They entered the playoffs as the No. 8 seed. And then they beat Tennessee, Oregon, Texas, and Notre Dame in consecutive games to capture their first national title in a decade.

Here’s what nobody talks about: 99% of championship teams have most of their stars return the following year.

Ohio State? They lost 14 players to the NFL Draft.

That’s not a reload. That’s a complete teardown and rebuild. And they have to do it while everyone expects them to repeat as champions. The math doesn’t add up. The expectations don’t make sense. But that’s exactly the position Ryan Day finds himself in heading into 2025.

This is going to be fascinating to watch.

Nobody Knows Who The Starting Quarterback Is (And That Should Scare You)

Let me paint you a picture.

Will Howard threw for 4,010 yards and 35 touchdowns during Ohio State’s championship run. He made clutch throws in every playoff game. He was the steady hand that guided this team through adversity. Now he’s gone, drafted by the Pittsburgh Steelers.

The replacement? That’s where it gets interesting.

Julian Sayin was the obvious choice. Former five-star recruit. Transferred from Alabama when Nick Saban retired. MVP of the Elite 11 Finals. All the credentials you want.

But here’s the problem: The consensus was that Julian Sayin was the clear frontrunner to be the starter, but a shaky spring has changed things and has brought junior Lincoln Kienholz into the picture.

This is not the kind of uncertainty you want when facing Texas in your season opener.

Sayin’s resume looks incredible on paper:

7,824 passing yards in high school
85 touchdowns, 10 interceptions
Added 10 pounds and now weighs 203

But paper doesn’t win football games. And right now, Ohio State doesn’t know who their starting quarterback is going to be. Former Ohio State quarterback Will Howard believes Julian Sayin is the front-runner to be the Buckeyes’ next QB1, with former defensive back Denzel Burke adding, “Julian’s that guy.”

The coaches aren’t even pretending they have it figured out. Quarterbacks coach Billy Fessler said Ohio State is “a long way away” from even discussing the closeness of the competition.

When you’re defending national champions and you don’t know who your quarterback is 3 months before the season? That’s not a great sign.

Brian Hartline Just Got The Most Pressure-Packed Promotion In College Football

Picture this scenario.

You’re the wide receivers coach at Ohio State. You’ve been there for 8 years. You’ve developed four first-round NFL draft picks. You helped Marvin Harrison Jr. win the Biletnikoff Award. You’re really, really good at your job.

Then your boss walks into your office and says: “Congratulations, you’re now the offensive coordinator for the defending national champions. Oh, and by the way, we have no idea who our starting quarterback is going to be.”

That’s precisely what happened to Brian Hartline.

“Great honor,” Hartline said. “Very humbled by it. I mean, Coach can select anybody in the country he wants to be the offensive coordinator at Ohio State, and he has trusted me to be one of those guys. So it means a lot.”

Here’s what makes this promotion both brilliant and terrifying:

The Brilliant Part:

Hartline has coached Chris Olave, Garrett Wilson, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, and Marvin Harrison Jr.
He knows how to develop elite talent
He has the best receiving corps in college football returning
Jeremiah Smith had 1,315 yards and 15 TDs as a freshman

The Terrifying Part:

He’s never been a full-time offensive coordinator
He has to game-plan around an unknown quarterback
Everyone expects the offense to be just as explosive as last year
Oh, and they lost both starting running backs, too

Hartline’s success or failure will determine whether Ohio State can repeat. No pressure, right?

“Anybody can do it for one time. So they’re just trying to chase consistency and frequency, and that is the keynote on your level of greatness, how often you do it,” Hartline said. “A lot of those guys have only done it once. So they’re trying to do it more than once.”

Translation: We know winning once was hard. Doing it again? That’s the real test.

They Hired A Former NFL Head Coach To Fix Their Defense (Because They Had To)

Matt Patricia’s hiring tells you everything you need to know about Ohio State’s defensive situation.

When you lose your entire starting defensive line to the NFL Draft, you don’t hire a college position coach. You don’t promote from within. You call a guy who coached in two Super Bowls and convince him to save your season.

Patricia’s resume is ridiculous:

Defensive coordinator for three Super Bowl-winning Patriots teams
Led top-10 NFL scoring defenses for 8 straight years
Coordinated the 2016 Patriots defense that allowed just 250 points all season
Has 20 years of NFL experience

But here’s the thing nobody wants to admit: Patricia failed as an NFL head coach in Detroit. His teams went 13-29-1. He was fired mid-season. There’s a reason he’s back in college football.

Day said Ohio State’s defense will look different under Matt Patricia compared to the past three seasons under former defensive coordinator Jim Knowles. That’s coach-speak for “we have no idea how this is going to work.”

The numbers don’t lie about what Ohio State lost:

J.T. Tuimoloau: 12.5 sacks (1st round pick)
Jack Sawyer: 9 sacks (1st round pick)
The entire starting defensive line
53 total sacks as a team (3.3 per game)
The #4 scoring defense in the country

You can’t replace that kind of production overnight. Patricia’s job isn’t to maintain the defense. It’s to completely rebuild it from scratch.

Good luck with that.

The Schedule From Hell

Want to know how confident Ohio State is about this rebuild?

Look at their schedule.

They open the season against Texas on August 30 at noon. Not some FCS cupcake. Not a mid-tier Power 5 team. Texas. The same Texas team they beat in the College Football Playoff semifinals. With both teams expected to be very highly ranked and this a rematch of last year’s College Football Playoff national semifinal, the matchup is one of the most anticipated openers in college football history.

Then it gets worse:

Aug. 30: Texas at home (noon)
Sept. 6: Grambling State at home (3:30 p.m.)
Sept. 13: Ohio at home (7 p.m. on Peacock)
Sept. 27: At Washington in Seattle
Oct. 4: Minnesota at home (Homecoming)
Oct. 11: At Illinois
Oct. 18: At Wisconsin
Nov. 1: Penn State at home
Nov. 8: At Purdue
Nov. 15: UCLA at home
Nov. 22: Rutgers at home
Nov. 29: At Michigan (noon)

This isn’t a schedule designed for a rebuilding team. This is a schedule that says, “We think we’re still championship-level despite losing half our roster.”

The road games at Washington, Illinois, Wisconsin, and Michigan are all potential trap games. Washington went 6-7 last season but will be desperate to bounce back. Illinois and Wisconsin are always tough at home. And Michigan? That rivalry game speaks for itself.

Either Ohio State’s coaching staff knows something we don’t, or they’re about to learn a costly lesson about overconfidence.

The expanded playoff format does provide some cushion. Ohio State proved last year that you can lose games and still win it all. But starting 1-2 or 2-3? That’s an entirely different conversation.

The Transfer Portal Band-Aid Strategy

When you lose this much talent, you have two options:

Develop young players and hope they’re ready
Hit the transfer portal hard and pray you find immediate contributors

Ohio State chose option 2:

CJ Donaldson (RB) from West Virginia
Ethan Onianwa (OT) from Rice
Phillip Daniels (OT) from Minnesota
Max Klare (TE) from Purdue
Logan George (DE) from Idaho State

This isn’t necessarily a bad strategy. But it’s also not a championship strategy.

Championship teams are built on players who have been in the system for 2-3 years. Players who know every nuance of the playbook. Players who have been through big games together.

Transfer portal players? They’re talented, but they’re also brand new. They don’t know the culture. They don’t have the relationships. They’re essentially starting from scratch in August.

Can it work? Sure. The 2024 team had key transfers like Will Howard and Caleb Downs, who were crucial to the championship run.

But banking your entire season on transfer portal additions? That’s not sustainable. That’s desperation.

Ryan Day’s Reputation Is About To Be Tested

Here’s what nobody talks about regarding Ryan Day’s championship:

It took him 6 years to win his first title.

For 5 years, the criticism was relentless. Can’t beat Michigan. Can’t win the big games. Not elite enough for Ohio State. The pressure was suffocating.

Then 2024 happened. Suddenly, Day was a genius. A championship coach. One of the best in the country.

But here’s the uncomfortable truth: Day’s 2025 season will tell us more about his coaching ability than 2024 ever could.

Winning with elite talent is one thing. Winning after losing that elite talent? That’s when you find out who can really coach.

Day’s challenge isn’t just replacing players. It’s managing expectations. It’s developing young talent. It’s keeping a team focused when everyone assumes they’ll repeat as champions.

The pressure is immense:

External expectations for another championship
Internal pressure to develop unproven talent quickly
Strategic decisions about playing time and depth
Managing new coordinators while maintaining program identity

Day’s ability to navigate these challenges will define both the 2025 season and his long-term legacy in Columbus.

If he succeeds? He’ll be considered one of the elite coaches in college football.

If he fails? The criticism will return with a vengeance.

The Recruiting Safety Net

The one thing Ohio State has going for them? Their recruiting is still elite.

The 2025 class ranks 4th nationally:

Tavien St. Clair (QB) – could push for immediate playing time
Devin Sanchez (CB) – desperately needed in the secondary
Quincy Porter (WR) – adds depth to an already loaded position
Bo Jackson (RB) – helps replace NFL departures

The 2026 class already ranks third nationally, which speaks volumes about Ohio State’s brand power.

But here’s the reality: recruiting rankings don’t win games in September.

These freshmen are talented, but they’re still freshmen. Asking them to contribute immediately on a championship-level team? That’s a lot of pressure for 18-year-old kids.

The recruiting success provides long-term hope. But for 2025? Ohio State needs immediate production from unproven players.

That’s not a recipe for sustained excellence. That’s a recipe for growing pains.

The Uncomfortable Truth About Defending Championships

Here’s what the college football world doesn’t want to admit:

Repeating as national champions is nearly impossible in the modern era.

The last team to win back-to-back championships? Alabama in 2011-2012. That’s 13 years ago.

Why is it so hard?

Player turnover through the NFL Draft
Transfer portal departures
Increased parity across college football
Target on your back every single week
Complacency after achieving the ultimate goal

Ohio State faces all of these challenges, but amplified. They didn’t just lose some players. They lost 14 to the NFL Draft. They didn’t just have normal turnover. They essentially rebuilt their entire roster.

The expanded playoff format helps, but it doesn’t solve the fundamental problem: you still have to play the games.

So What Happens In 2025?

Let me be honest with you.

Ohio State will still be really good. They have too much talent, too good of coaching, and too strong of a program culture to be bad.

But championship-level good? That’s a different question entirely.

The most likely scenario:

Early struggles as new players learn their roles
Quarterback growing pains, regardless of who wins the job
Defensive inconsistency as Patricia implements his system
10-11 win season that feels disappointing compared to 2024
Playoff appearance but early exit

The optimistic scenario:

Julian Sayin becomes a star immediately
Transfer additions exceed expectations
Young players develop faster than anticipated
Patricia’s system clicks by midseason
Another championship run

The pessimistic scenario:

Quarterback competition extends into the season
Defense struggles without NFL-level talent
Early losses derail championship hopes
8-9 win season that leads to serious questions

Here’s my prediction: Ohio State will be good enough to make the playoff, but not good enough to win it all.

They’ll win 10-11 games, lose 1-2 games they shouldn’t, and bow out in the first or second round of the playoffs. It won’t be a failure, but it will feel like one compared to 2024.

The Bottom Line

Defending championships is the hardest thing in sports.

Ohio State is about to learn why.

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Ohio State’s Championship Quest – Inside the Buckeye’s 2024 Campaign

Mark Haines on January 18, 2025

The Buckeyes’ 13-2 season demonstrates how, when properly deployed, elite talent can overcome almost any obstacle.

An Aerial Assault That Commands Respect

Will Howard transformed Ohio State’s passing game into one of college football’s most lethal weapons.

The numbers tell the story of aerial dominance:

265.1 passing yards per game
71% completion rate
35 passing touchdowns
Two 900+ yard receivers (Smith: 1,227, Egbuka: 947)
14 touchdowns from Smith alone
10 scores from Egbuka

This passing attack kept defensive coordinators awake at night.

Ground Game: The Perfect Complement

While the passing game grabbed headlines, Ohio State’s rushing attack quietly devastated opponents.

The two-headed monster in the backfield produced consistently:

TreVeyon Henderson: 967 yards at 7.3 yards per carry
Quinshon Judkins: 960 yards at 5.2 yards per carry
Combined for 22 rushing touchdowns
Team average of 163.2 rushing yards per game
The perfect balance to keep defenses honest
Exceptional ability to close out games

This rushing attack turned good drives into great ones.

A Defense Built on Disruption

Ohio State’s defense didn’t just stop opponents – it broke their will to compete.

The defensive dominance showed in multiple ways:

Only 89.9 rushing yards allowed per game
Held runners to 2.7 yards per carry
Generated 51 sacks (led by J.T. Tuimoloau’s 11.5)
Created 111 tackles for loss
Limited opponents to 12 rushing touchdowns all season
Consistently dominated the line of scrimmage

This unit transformed pressure into production.

The Day Factor: Strategic Evolution

Ohio State head coach Ryan Day reacts to a replay during the first half of an NCAA college football game against Michigan Saturday, Nov. 30, 2024, in Columbus, Ohio. (AP Photo/Jay LaPrete)

Ryan Day’s approach to game management reveals a coach willing to adapt and innovate.

His impact manifested in several key areas:

Increased deep passing plays to 15% in playoffs
Implemented the crucial “middle eight” minutes strategy
Moved offensive coordinator to the press box
Created specific roles for key transfers
Developed new film study protocols
Built a “no bad days” culture

Results proved the effectiveness of these changes.

Playoff Performance That Demanded Attention

Ohio State’s postseason run showcased their ability to elevate their game when it mattered most.

Critical adjustments defined their playoff success:

Increased vertical passing attack
Strategic player rotation to maintain freshness
Enhanced coordinator collaboration
Systematic in-game adjustments
Improved third-down conversion rate
Superior momentum management

Each game revealed new depths to their capabilities.

Areas of Concern

Even championship contenders have their vulnerabilities.

Nervous young Latin man using TV remote control on home couch, feeling annoyed, angry, concerned, watching football match, show, getting problems with broadcasting

Key weaknesses that need addressing:

Red zone efficiency (73.3% field goal conversion)
Pass protection issues, especially after key injuries
Secondary vulnerabilities (59.8% completion percentage allowed)
Fourth-quarter defensive fatigue
Below-average punt return game (9.0 yards per return)
Conservative tendencies in crucial moments

These issues provide clear focus areas for improvement.

The Day Difference

Ryan Day’s unique approach to game management sets Ohio State apart.

His distinctive strategies include:

Reframing bye weeks as “improvement weeks”
Increasing playoff game personal involvement
Implementing systematic player rotation
Using innovative analysis tools
Creating accountability systems
Maintaining consistent practice habits

This methodology has proven both effective and controversial.

The Championship Formula

Success in modern college football requires both innovation and tradition.

Ohio State’s formula :

Elite talent development
Strategic adaptability
Cultural consistency
Tactical innovation
Physical dominance
Mental toughness

One question remains: Will this be enough to claim college football’s ultimate prize?

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Why Texas will beat Ohio State Tonight

Mark Haines on January 10, 2025

Will tonight’s championship matchup between Texas and Ohio State live up to the hype? All signs point to an instant classic in the making.

The Numbers Tell a Story of Perfect Balance

These two football powerhouses couldn’t be more evenly matched on paper. Texas brings its explosive offense (34.3 points per game) against Ohio State’s suffocating defense (12.1 points allowed). The Buckeyes counter with their offensive firepower (36.4 points per game), while Texas’s defense has been equally stingy (15.7 points allowed).

Breaking Down the Offensive Firepower

When you look closer at the offensive numbers, fascinating patterns emerge:

Texas has shown remarkable consistency in the red zone, converting opportunities into touchdowns at a higher rate than their opponents, with 26 rushing touchdowns showcasing their ability to punch it in when it matters most
The Longhorns’ yards per play in playoff games (6.3) demonstrates their explosive potential, consistently creating big plays that change game momentum
Ohio State counters with their own offensive efficiency, particularly in their passing attack, where Smith and Egbuka have combined for over 2,100 receiving yards
The Buckeyes’ balanced attack keeps defenses guessing, with both Henderson and Judkins approaching 1,000-yard rushing seasons

Defensive Chess Match

The defensive side of the ball could ultimately decide this championship showdown:

Texas’s aggressive defense has created an astounding 30 turnovers this season, nearly double Ohio State’s total of 17
The Longhorns’ front seven has consistently generated pressure without needing to blitz, allowing their secondary to focus on coverage
Ohio State’s defensive strength lies in their ability to limit big plays, holding opponents to just 244.6 total yards per game
The Buckeyes’ red zone defense has been particularly impressive, forcing teams to settle for field goals rather than touchdowns

The Transfer Portal’s Hidden Impact

Behind the scenes, the transfer portal has quietly reshaped both rosters heading into this matchup:

Ohio State’s offensive line depth has been particularly affected, with the loss of three linemen, including starter Zen Michalski, potentially impacting their protection schemes
The quarterback situation for the Buckeyes becomes precarious with the departures of both Devin Brown and Air Noland, leaving little room for error
Texas has managed its secondary losses well, maintaining defensive depth despite the departures of Thompson and Catalon
Both teams have shown remarkable resilience in adapting their game plans to account for these personnel changes

The Quarterback Showdown

The battle under center could be one for the history books:

Quinn Ewers has evolved into a complete quarterback for Texas, throwing for 3,189 yards and 29 touchdowns while completing over 66% of his passes
His ability to extend plays and find receivers downfield has been crucial in Texas’s playoff run
Will Howard brings his own impressive resume with 3,490 yards and 32 touchdowns, showing particular strength in reading defensive coverages
Both quarterbacks have shown remarkable poise in crucial moments, with neither throwing an interception in playoff competition

Performance Against Elite Competition

When facing ranked opponents, clear patterns emerge:

Texas has averaged 34.8 points against ranked teams, showing their offense can produce against any level of competition
The Longhorns’ defensive front has been particularly dominant, creating pressure on 37% of passing downs against ranked opponents
Ohio State has demonstrated slight struggles against elite teams, averaging 31.5 points against ranked opponents
The Buckeyes’ running game has seen a noticeable dip in production against ranked teams, averaging 156 yards compared to their season-average

The X-Factor: Turnover Battle

One key statistic jumps off the page: Texas’s ability to create turnovers. With 30 takeaways compared to Ohio State’s 17, the Longhorns’ opportunistic defense could be the difference-maker in a close game.

Prediction: Texas by a Horn

In a game this evenly matched, small advantages loom large. Texas’s superior turnover margin, more balanced offensive attack, and stronger defensive front seven pressure should prove decisive. Look for a classic championship battle, with Texas emerging victorious, 31-27.

The championship trophy will be decided by which team can impose its will in crucial moments. Texas’s momentum and defensive playmaking ability give them the slightest edge in what promises to be an unforgettable title game.

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Week 15 Coaches Hot Seat Rankings – Breaking Down the Top 5

Mark Haines on December 3, 2024

Welcome to our breakdown of the Top 5 ranked coaches on the Week 15 Coaches Hot Seat Rankings.

In the era of social media and team message boards, College football communities typically fall into three categories:

Picture the modern college football landscape as a digital Roman Colosseum, where three distinct tribes gather daily to pass judgment on their gladiators. I’ve spent months studying these tribes, fascinated by how their collective voice can determine the fate of multimillion-dollar coaching careers with the force of an emperor’s thumb.

First, you have the Sunshine Pumpers – college football’s eternal optimists, whose rose-tinted view of their program would make Pollyanna seem cynical. They’re the ones who’d watch their team’s practice facility burn to the ground and declare it a strategic move to improve ventilation. Their unwavering positivity isn’t just amusing; it’s a psychological defense mechanism worth millions to beleaguered athletic directors who need someone, anyone, to keep buying season tickets.

Then there are the Negative Nellies, the digital descendants of Ancient Greek tragedy choruses. These people have turned catastrophizing into an art form and see an upset loss to a rival as evidence of civilization’s collapse. They don’t just want their coach fired; they want him launched into the sun, preferably before halftime.

But the real power brokers? They’re the Middle Majority – college football’s silent jury. These are the clear-eyed realists who still remember that this is, ultimately, a game played by 20-year-olds. Lose their support, and a coach’s career expectancy drops faster than a team’s ranking after a loss to an FCS opponent.

As we examine this week’s coaching hot seat rankings, remember: these three tribes aren’t just posting on message boards – they’re reshaping the power dynamics of a $8 billion industry, one complaint thread at a time.

The Ryan Day situation at Ohio State exemplifies how these three tribes can reshape a program’s trajectory. With a staggering 86.8% winning percentage and a 64-3 record outside of Michigan games and playoff appearances, Day should be untouchable in the eyes of any rational observer. But that’s not how college football works in 2024, especially not in Columbus.

The Sunshine Pumpers point to the program’s continued playoff contention and recruiting dominance, including a roster powered by $20 million in NIL money. They’ll tell you that Day’s overall record (.868 winning percentage) would be celebrated at 95% of programs nationwide. And they’re not wrong.

The Negative Nellies, however, have found their ammunition: a 2-7 record in career-defining moments and four straight losses to Michigan, including an unthinkable defeat to an unranked Wolverines squad that had just lost their head coach to the NFL. The “Big Game Day” epithet has stuck, and the critics are getting louder.

But it’s the Middle Majority that makes this situation genuinely fascinating. They’re running the numbers: a $35 million buyout, a coach who consistently wins everything except the games that matter most and a recruiting machine that just watched Michigan flip five-star quarterback Bryce Underwood with a reported $10 million NIL deal. The silent jury is still deliberating, but their patience is wearing thin.

Athletic Director Ross Bjork’s carefully worded support – “Coach Day does a great job leading our program. He’s our coach” – reads less like a vote of confidence and more like a holding pattern until the playoff scenario plays out. The real question might not be whether Ohio State wants to keep Day but whether Day wants to stay in a pressure cooker where even a 66-10 record can’t guarantee job security.

Unlike the Ohio State scenario, Kent State’s situation with Kenni Burns has achieved something remarkable: it’s united all three tribes in bewilderment. When you’ve lost 21 straight games and your head coach is being sued for defaulting on a $24,000 credit card debt despite making nearly half a million dollars annually, even the Sunshine Pumpers run out of silver linings to grasp.

The raw numbers read like a satire of college football excess: a 1-33 overall record, a $1.51 million buyout, and a contract extension through 2028 that was inexplicably granted in February 2024 – the same period during which Burns was reportedly falling behind on his credit card payments. The Golden Flashes haven’t just lost games; they’ve been dismantled with surgical precision, outscored 486-160 overall and 282-99 in MAC play. The season’s nadir came early with a loss to St. Francis (PA), though the subsequent 71-0 demolition by Tennessee and 56-0 erasure by Penn State suggest “nadir” might be a moving target.

In any rational football universe, this would be where our three tribes engage in their usual warfare of interpretation. The Negative Nellies would demand immediate change, the Sunshine Pumpers would preach patience, and the Middle Majority would weigh the practical constraints against the competitive collapse. But when your head coach can’t manage his personal finances – defaulting on debt to a local bank that once sponsored the athletic program, no less – while earning $475,000 a year, it raises uncomfortable questions about institutional judgment.

Kent State has transcended such traditional dynamics. When your season ends with a 43-7 loss to Buffalo, extending the nation’s longest active losing streak to 21 games, while your head coach dodges court summons over unpaid credit card bills, you’ve achieved something rare in modern college football: unanimous consensus. The same industry that might force out Ryan Day and his 87% winning percentage at Ohio State has somehow found infinite patience for a program redefining competitive futility both on and off the field.

Perhaps that’s the most fascinating part of this story – how Kent State has inadvertently experimented with just how far institutional inertia can stretch. The answer is at least 21 games, one credit card default, and counting.

The UAB situation under Trent Dilfer exemplifies what happens when all three fan tribes suddenly realize they’ve been watching the same horror movie. Four seasons ago, UAB dominated Tulane with a bruising defense that held the Green Wave to 21 points. This year? Tulane hung 71 points on the Blazers in their stadium.

As Joseph Goodman of the Alabama Media Group devastatingly points out, UAB has completed a stunning transformation “from being a symbol of pride for the city of Birmingham to the worst team in college football.” Not the bottom 10. Not second-to-last. The worst. This is a program that, under Bill Clark, made five consecutive bowl games and engineered a move to the American Athletic Conference. Under Dilfer, they’re losing 32-6 to Louisiana-Monroe, a program he describes as “historically tragic.”

The Sunshine Pumpers, usually reliable defenders of any coach with an NFL pedigree, have gone quiet. The Negative Nellies are pointing to a season-ending loss to Charlotte where the Blazers missed not one but two chip-shot field goals. And the Middle Majority? They’re doing the math on how a program goes from nine wins and a bowl victory over BYU in 2021 to this level of competitive collapse.

Yet in a twist that would bewilder even the most optimistic fans, UAB appears ready to run it back with Dilfer in 2024. The sacrifice of assistant coaches is enough to appease the football gods, even as the program that Bill Clark rebuilt piece by piece crumbles into competitive irrelevance.

The most telling sign of the program’s descent is when a senior quarterback abandons the team mid-season to preserve his eligibility. This suggests that the quarterback whisperer might have lost his voice.

You know something has gone wrong when your fanbase goes from celebrating a splash hire to demanding his head in just two years. Luke Fickell’s descent at Wisconsin is a cautionary tale about the dangers of heightened expectations, with his .760 winning percentage at Cincinnati deteriorating to .500 in Madison.

The Sunshine Pumpers still point to his overall .667 career winning percentage and Cincinnati success, including that magical College Football Playoff run. They’ll tell you that losing starting quarterback Tyler Van Dyke to a torn ACL derailed what could have been a breakthrough season. And didn’t Fickell already show accountability by firing offensive coordinator Phil Longo?

However, the Negative Nellies have the receipts: five consecutive losses to the end of 2024, the first such streak since 1991. It was a humiliating 24-7 home loss to Minnesota that snapped a 22-year bowl streak and an offense that managed just 44 total yards in the first half of their season finale, with bowl eligibility on the line. The boos raining down at Camp Randall tell their own story.

The Middle Majority finds itself in an uncomfortable position. This is the same Luke Fickell who Ohio State passed over for Ryan Day – and now both men find themselves scrutinized for failing to meet their program’s standards, albeit at very different levels. The irony isn’t lost on anyone that while Ohio State contemplates moving on from Day’s 87% win rate, Wisconsin seems prepared to give Fickell another chance to prove he hasn’t lost his Cincinnati magic.

The most damning indictment? When athletic director Chris McIntosh’s recent raise and extension become part of the conversation about your job security, you know the pressure is mounting.

At Auburn, the three tribes of college football fandom find themselves engaged in a uniquely expensive form of warfare. Since 2000, the program has spent $68 million not on building success but on buying out failure – a figure transforming Auburn football from a sports program into a case study of institutional self-sabotage.

The Sunshine Pumpers are clinging to Auburn’s 2025 recruiting class, currently ranked fifth nationally, like a life raft in a storm of mediocrity. They’ll tell you that Freeze needs time, that his 444.5 yards per game show the offense is close to clicking, and that better days are just around the corner. Remember that Texas A&M signed a top-20 class a month after firing their coach last year.

The Negative Nellies point to numbers that are harder to spin: 11-14 overall, 5-11 in the SEC, and now 0-2 in the Iron Bowl. As Paul Finebaum put it, after the latest loss to Alabama, people “really have to wonder about this program’s future.” When you’re generating 444.5 yards per game but still can’t score, you’re not just failing – you’re finding innovative new ways to disappoint.

But it’s the Middle Majority that genuinely appreciates the dark comedy here. Auburn has fired a coach two years after winning a national title (Gene Chizik), dismissed another despite his mystifying ability to beat Alabama in odd-numbered years (Gus Malzahn), and scrapped Bryan Harsin for the crime of not being from around here. Now they’ve got Freeze, whose $20.3 million buyout can be paid monthly through 2028 – less like a coaching contract and more like a mortgage on mediocrity.

The most revealing detail is that Auburn structured Freeze’s buyout not as a deterrent to firing him but as a more convenient payment plan. This behavior reflects an institution that knows itself too well—like someone who builds the divorce settlement into their wedding vows.

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Targeting Winners: College Football’s Day of Reckoning

Mark Haines on November 29, 2024

When History Comes Due: College Football’s Day of Reckoning

On the final Saturday of November 2024, college football will remind us why it remains America’s most compelling social experiment. In four different stadiums, eight teams will engage in a ritual that’s equal parts sporting event and psychological warfare. These aren’t just games—they’re settling accounts, tests of collective will, and exercises in mass delusion, where entire states convince themselves that the impossible is probable.

In South Carolina, two programs that share nothing but geography and mutual contempt will try to prove that statistics are just numbers on a page. In Columbus, Ohio State faces the cruel irony of finally getting a vulnerable Michigan team after three years of losses, only to discover that beating a wounded rival might be the most challenging task. In Los Angeles, USC will attempt to salvage a disappointing season by derailing Notre Dame’s playoff dreams, proving once again that nothing satisfies quite like ruining someone else’s perfect ending. And in Eugene, Oregon stands ready to exorcise three years of frustration against a Washington program that’s fallen from national championship contender to cautionary tale in less time than it takes to earn a college degree.

Each of these games carries its own particular strain of madness. Together, they form a perfect case study in how rational human beings – coaches, players, and millions of fans – can convince themselves that history, statistics, and probability are merely suggestions rather than laws. In short, it’s everything that makes college football the most irrational, and therefore most human, of our sports.

The Numbers That Lie: A Tale of Two Programs – South Carolina at Clemson

In the gathering dusk of late November, two football programs circle each other like prizefighters, each convinced they’ve decoded the other’s fatal flaw. The statistics tell one story: Clemson, the higher-ranked team with the more prolific offense, should win this game. But anyone who’s spent time in South Carolina knows that numbers, like the sweet tea served at every diner from Charleston to Greenville, can be deceptive.

The conventional wisdom says Clemson has the edge. Their quarterback, Cade Klubnik, throws for nearly fifty more yards per game than his counterpart. Their offense generates more total yards, touchdowns, and everything that should matter. We could all go home now if football games were played on spreadsheets.

But here’s where it gets interesting.

While everyone’s been watching Klubnik light up the stat sheet, South Carolina has been quietly perfecting the art of chaos. They don’t just play defense; they create havoc. Eighteen forced fumbles this season – a number that makes defensive coordinators salivate and quarterbacks wake up in cold sweats. Their defensive captain, Nick Emmanwori, has turned the secondary into a no-fly zone with four interceptions, but it’s his 76 tackles that tell the real story. He’s not just picking off passes; he’s hunting down ball carriers with the relentless precision of a Wall Street algorithm.

The market inefficiency here – the thing everyone else has missed – is in the special teams battle. South Carolina’s punter, Kai Kroeger, is averaging 47.8 yards per punt, a full five yards more than his Clemson counterpart. In a game where field position is currency, Kroeger prints money with every boot of the ball.

But perhaps the most telling number isn’t on any stat sheet. Five games – that’s how long South Carolina’s winning streak has stretched. Like confidence in financial markets, momentum in football is a self-fulfilling prophecy. Teams that believe they can’t lose often don’t.

The paradox at the heart of this rivalry is that for all of Clemson’s statistical superiority—their 469.9 yards per game, their 30 passing touchdowns, their number twelve ranking—they’re facing an opponent that has mastered the art of winning ugly. South Carolina’s defense doesn’t just stop drives; it ends them violently, with forced fumbles and defensive stands that send offensive coordinators back to their drawing boards.

Ultimately, this game won’t be decided by the comfortable certainties of statistics. It will come down to something far more primal: the ability to create chaos and thrive within it. South Carolina has turned defensive mayhem into an art form, while Clemson has built an offensive machine that looks unstoppable – until it meets a force that doesn’t play by the normal rules of engagement.

Overall Team Comparison

Records and Rankings:

Clemson: 9-2, ranked #12
South Carolina: 8-3, ranked #16

Momentum:

Clemson is on a 3-game winning streak
South Carolina is on a 5-game winning streak

Offensive Analysis

Passing Game:

Clemson’s Cade Klubnik leads a more prolific passing attack (274.6 yards/game) compared to South Carolina’s LaNorris Sellers (225.5 yards/game).
Clemson has a slight edge in passing touchdowns (30 vs. 20).

Rushing Game:

Clemson averages more rushing yards (195.3 vs. 181.8 yards/game).
South Carolina’s Raheim Sanders is the standout rusher with 11 TDs, while Clemson’s Phil Mafah leads with 8 TDs.

Key Playmakers:

Clemson: Antonio Williams (WR, 10 receiving TDs), Phil Mafah (RB, 1012 rushing yards)
South Carolina: Raheim Sanders (RB, 13 total TDs), Joshua Simon (TE, 6 receiving TDs)

Total Offense:

Clemson averages 469.9 yards/game
South Carolina averages 407.3 yards/game

Defensive Analysis

Run Defense:

South Carolina allows fewer rushing yards (103.4 vs. 139.6 yards/game).

Pass Defense:

Both teams are similar, with South Carolina slightly better (200.3 vs. 210.8 yards allowed/game).

Turnovers:

Clemson has more interceptions (13 vs. 12).
South Carolina forces more fumbles (18 vs. 11).

Key Defenders:

Clemson: T.J. Parker (9 sacks), Wade Woodaz and Barrett Carter (61 tackles each)
South Carolina: Kyle Kennard (11.5 sacks), Nick Emmanwori (76 tackles, 4 INTs)

Special Teams

Kicking:

Clemson’s Nolan Hauser: 15/20 FGs, 50/51 XPs
South Carolina’s Alex Herrera: 13/18 FGs, 41/41 XPs

Punting:

South Carolina’s Kai Kroeger averages 47.8 yards/punt
Clemson’s Aidan Swanson averages 42.4 yards/punt

Returns:

Clemson has a slight edge in kick returns (18.8 vs. 17.5 yards/return)
Clemson is significantly better in punt returns (8.2 vs. 5.9 yards/return)

Key Factors for the Matchup

Offensive Firepower: Clemson’s more balanced and productive offense could challenge South Carolina’s defense.
Defensive Playmaking: South Carolina’s defense has shown a greater ability to force turnovers and create big plays.
Quarterback Play: The performance of Klubnik (Clemson) and Sellers (South Carolina) will be crucial.
Field Position Battle: South Carolina’s superior punting game could be a significant factor.
Red Zone Efficiency: Both teams have efficient kickers, making red zone conversions critical.
Momentum: South Carolina enters with a longer winning streak, potentially providing a psychological edge.

Prediction

This matchup promises to be closely contested. South Carolina’s defensive strengths balance Clemson’s offensive advantages. The game could come down to turnovers, special teams play, and quarterback performance in critical moments. Given Clemson’s slightly higher ranking, more balanced offense, and home-field advantage, they might have a slight edge. However, South Carolina’s momentum and defensive playmaking ability make them a formidable opponent. Expect a tight game with the potential for big plays on both sides. The team that manages the turnover battle and performs better in special teams is likely to emerge victorious in what could be a classic rivalry matchup.

The smart money says Clemson wins this game 31-27. That’s what the algorithms predict, the statistical models suggest, and every rational analysis concludes. But there’s something fitting about the fact that this game will be played on the last day of November when the crisp autumn air carries just a hint of winter’s chaos. Because in the end, this rivalry isn’t about the predictable – it’s about the moments that break the models.

Clemson 31, South Carolina 27. That’s what the numbers say. But as one wizened South Carolina assistant coach told me with a knowing smile, “The beautiful thing about this game is that it’s played on grass, not paper.” In Palmetto State, grass has a way of growing wild.

Other Games Where We’re Targeting Winners

Michigan at Ohio State – The Cruelest Game in College Football

There’s a particular kind of torture in being favored by three touchdowns against your most bitter rival. Just ask Ohio State, which enters this year’s edition of The Game carrying the kind of burden that could crush a lesser program: the weight of three straight losses to Michigan, a clear path to the Playoff, and the suffocating expectations that come with being the team that absolutely, positively cannot lose to a 6-5 Michigan squad.

The cruel irony isn’t lost on anyone in Columbus. After years of falling to Jim Harbaugh’s powerhouse Michigan teams, the Buckeyes finally get a vulnerable version of their nemesis – and that somehow makes this game even more dangerous. Michigan’s offense may be diminished, but their defense remains stubborn enough to turn this into the ugly, grinding affair that has haunted Ohio State’s recent nightmares.

For Ohio State, it’s a game of psychological warfare against their own demons. Win, and they secure their spot in the Big Ten title game against Oregon while exorcising three years of Michigan-induced trauma. Lose, and… well, no one in scarlet and gray dares contemplate that scenario, even though their Playoff spot would likely survive such a catastrophe.

Michigan, meanwhile, arrives with the most dangerous weapon in college football: nothing to lose. Their defense, still salty enough to make life difficult for any offense, now gets to play the role of spoiler – a position that has produced some of college football’s most

The Game, as it’s known, has never needed additional drama to justify its appointment-viewing status. But this year’s edition adds a particularly twisted psychological element: Ohio State must beat a weakened version of the team that has tormented them or risk a new level of nightmare. There’s no greater pressure in college football than being the team that absolutely must win.

Prediction: Ohio State 31, Michigan 13. But if Michigan’s defense can force a couple of early turnovers and plant those seeds of doubt, that’s why they play The Game.

Notre Dame at USC – The Perfect Trap

There’s something poetic about Notre Dame having to pass through Los Angeles on its way to the College Football Playoff. Like any good Hollywood script, this one comes with all the classic elements of a potential tragedy: the protagonist riding high after overcoming early adversity, one final obstacle that seems manageable on paper, and an antagonist with nothing left to lose but their pride.

The Irish have spent months rehabilitating their image after that inexplicable slip-up early in the season. Like a forgiving audience, the playoff committee has bought into their redemption arc. However, USC’s Coliseum has always had a way of rewriting expected endings, especially when Lincoln Riley’s teams have their backs against the wall.

The numbers that matter here aren’t USC’s five losses – they’ve faced zero fourth-quarter deficits at home this season. Even Penn State, a team currently sitting in playoff position, needed overtime to escape Los Angeles with a win. For all their deficiencies and inconsistent play, the Trojans have mastered the art of the homestand. They’re like a veteran actor who might forget their lines in a touring production but never misses the mark on their home stage.

Lincoln Riley knows this is his last chance at salvaging something from a disappointing season. Expect him to empty the playbook, unleashing everything in USC’s arsenal – George Tirebiter, Traveler, Tommy Trojan, and even John McKay’s statue if he could make them eligible. In USC’s world, where a 6-5 record feels like a dramatic fall from grace, this game represents their chance at a redemptive finale. They’re not just playing spoiler but fighting for their own Hollywood ending.

And therein lies the trap for Notre Dame. They’ve convinced everyone – the committee, the analysts, perhaps even themselves – that they’ve evolved beyond that early-season stumble. But college football has a cruel sense of symmetry. A season that began with an unexpected stumble could end the same way.

Prediction: USC 34, Notre Dame 31. Because sometimes the best Hollywood endings are the ones nobody sees coming, written by a USC team that’s spent all season practicing fourth-quarter drama.

Washington at Oregon – When Empires Fall

Last January, as Washington walked off the field after the national championship game, the future seemed written in stone. The Huskies had Oregon’s number—three straight wins over their nemesis—and a program trajectory that pointed straight up. The rivalry’s power dynamics had shifted permanently toward Seattle.

Ten months later, the story reads like satire. Oregon stands undefeated, the last perfect team in major college football, while Washington stumbles into Eugene, looking less like a rival and more like a ritual sacrifice. The Ducks aren’t just winning; they’re thriving with the offensive balance that defensive coordinators see in their nightmares. Dillon Gabriel has turned the passing game into performance art, already eclipsing 3,000 yards. At the same time, Jordan James pounds out tough yards on the ground like a metronome measuring Oregon’s inevitable march toward the playoff.

Washington’s Will Rogers, meanwhile, looks like a quarterback trying to read a playbook written in hieroglyphics, throwing more interceptions (six) than touchdowns (two) over his last five games. The Huskies’ only hope lies in their 19th-ranked defense, and the strange mathematics of rivalry games – six of the last nine meetings have been decided by less than seven points.

But there’s something almost quaint about those historical statistics now. They’re like photos from a different era, reminders of when Washington could go toe-to-toe with the Ducks. Oregon doesn’t need this game – they could lose here and in next week’s Big Ten title game and likely still make the playoffs. That’s the kind of security that breeds either complacency or ruthlessness.

Prediction: Oregon 42, Washington 17. The cruelest part of college football’s natural order isn’t the fall from grace – it’s watching your rival ascend to heights you thought would be yours.

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Coaches Hot Seat is Targeting Winners for Week 10

Mark Haines on October 31, 2024

Okay, folks, get ready. It’s that time of the week again when we dive headfirst into the chaotic, beautiful mess that is college football. Friday’s episode of the Targeting Winners podcast (available on Spotify, Apple, or wherever you get your podcasts) is coming at you hot, and trust me, you don’t want to miss this. They’ll be talking Xs and Os, dissecting matchups, and uncovering those hidden gems that’ll have you cashing in come Saturday.

Today, I’ll share my weekend bets and prep with you. I’m not just throwing darts at a board. I’m breaking down film, analyzing stats, and getting into the nitty-gritty.

This week, I’ve got three games I’m reviewing: San Diego State at Boise State, Ohio State at Penn State, and Pitt at SMU. We’re talking potential upsets, high-scoring shootouts, and maybe even a bit of old-fashioned smashmouth football. So read my breakdown below, make your picks, and fire up Spotify, Apple, or wherever you get your podcasts on Friday afternoon. Then, get ready to ride the wave with us.

San Diego State at (15) Boise State

The San Diego State Aztecs (3-4) will face the No. 15 Boise State Broncos (6-1) in a Mountain West Conference matchup on Friday, November 1, 2024, at Albertsons Stadium in Boise, Idaho14. The game will kick off at 8:00 p.m. ET and be broadcast on Fox Sports 14.

Betting Odds and Predictions

Boise State is heavily favored in this matchup:

Spread: Boise State -23.5
Moneyline: Boise State -2439, San Diego State +1096
Over/Under: 57.5 points14

The College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter (CFN FPM) has a slightly tighter spread of Boise State -18.54.

Key Factors

Home Field Advantage: Boise State has a strong home field advantage, but San Diego State has won at Albertsons Stadium in the past (2018 and 2012).

Head-to-Head Record: This will be the 10th meeting between the two teams, with Boise State holding a slight 5-4 advantage.

Recent Performance: Boise State has won every game where it has been favored this year, while San Diego State has failed to win as an underdog.

Against the Spread (ATS): San Diego State is 3-2 ATS as an underdog, while Boise State has failed to cover three times as a double-digit favorite.

Weather: The forecast calls for temperatures around 42 degrees with a chance of showers, which could impact game performance.

Outlook by Team

San Diego State:

New head coach Sean Lewis wants to improve last year’s 4-8 record.
The Aztecs have an 8.3% winning probability for this game.
Their season outlook improves after this game, with better winning probabilities against upcoming opponents.

Boise State:

The Broncos have a 91.7% winning probability for this game.
They are on track for a potential Group of Five spot in the College Football Playoff, and their remaining games have high winning probabilities.

Analysis

Okay, you’ve got this classic David vs. Goliath scenario brewing in Boise. San Diego State, the scrappy underdog, is rolling into town with a new coach and something to prove. They’re like the Oakland A’s of college football, trying to outsmart the system with grit and a lot of hustle. But then there’s Boise State, the perennial powerhouse, the kings of the blue turf. They’re the New York Yankees, used to winning and expected to dominate.

But here’s the thing: Boise State has this weird quirk. When they’re supposed to win big, they sometimes… don’t. It’s like they get bored or something. And San Diego State? Well, they’ve been defying expectations all season. They’re like that one stock you didn’t think would make a comeback, but suddenly it’s surging. Nobody saw it coming.

You might think this is just another game, but it’s more than that. It’s a clash of cultures, a test of wills. Can San Diego State, with its new coach and underdog mentality, pull off the upset? Or will Boise State crush their dreams with its home-field advantage and history of dominance? It’s a high-stakes game, and the tension is thicker than the Idaho potato soup they serve in the stadium.

Prediction

The air crackles with anticipation. The Broncos, bathed in the eerie glow of the blue turf, exude an aura of invincibility. But beneath the surface, a tremor of doubt. The Aztecs, eyes locked on their prey, carry the quiet confidence of a wolf pack circling its quarry.

This is not a game of mere statistics and spreadsheets. It’s a battle of souls, a collision of destinies. Boise State, the established power, yearns to maintain its grip on the throne. The hungry challenger, San Diego State, fights for recognition and a place at the table.

The final whistle blows. The scoreboard tells a story of Boise State’s dominance: 35-14. But the numbers don’t reveal the whole truth. They don’t show the fierce struggle, the moments of brilliance, the echoes of what could have been. San Diego State, though defeated, leaves the field with heads held high. They have pushed the giants to the brink, proven their mettle, and earned respect that transcends the final score.

Game 2: (3) Ohio State at (7) Penn State

No. 3 Ohio State (7-1) will face No. 7 Penn State (7-0) in a crucial Big Ten matchup on Saturday, November 2, 2024, at Beaver Stadium in University Park, Pennsylvania. The game will kick off at noon ET and be broadcast on Fox.

Betting Odds and Predictions

The betting odds and predictions for this game are notably close:

Spread: SMU -7.5
Moneyline: SMU -340, Pittsburgh +270
Over/Under: 59 points

Interestingly, the College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter (CFN FPM) slightly favors Penn State with a spread of Penn State -1.5.

Key Factors

Recent History: Ohio State has won the last seven meetings between these teams, indicating a psychological edge.
Home Field Advantage: Penn State will benefit from playing at Beaver Stadium, which could be a significant factor.
Against the Spread (ATS): Both teams are 3-4 ATS this season, suggesting neither has a clear advantage in covering the spread.
Recent Performance: Ohio State has failed to cover in their last two games, including a narrow loss to Oregon.
Weather: The forecast calls for partly cloudy conditions with mild temperatures, which shouldn’t significantly impact the game.

Outlook by Team

Ohio State:

The Buckeyes have a 47.5% winning probability for this game.
A win would keep them in contention for the Big Ten Championship and the College Football Playoff.
Their remaining schedule looks favorable, with high winning probabilities against most opponents.

Penn State:

The Nittany Lions have a 52.5% winning probability for this game.
A win could potentially secure their spot in the College Football Playoff and the Big Ten title game.
Their remaining schedule appears relatively easy, with high winning probabilities against all opponents.

Analysis

This game is a real barnburner. Ohio State, the big, bad Buckeyes, strolling into Happy Valley like they own the place. They’re the Goldman Sachs of college football, all about tradition and pedigree. But Penn State? They’re the hungry upstarts, the Robinhood traders trying to disrupt the establishment.

Now, on paper, Ohio State should have this in the bag. They’ve got the history, the talent, the whole nine yards. But something’s not quite right. They’ve been stumbling lately, like a thoroughbred with a pulled hamstring. And Penn State? They’re playing with a fire in their belly, a chip on their shoulder. They’re like that meme stock, GameStop, ready to explode.

But here’s the kicker: Penn State has this weird thing about pressure. It’s like they get stage fright when the spotlight’s on. And Ohio State? Well, they’re used to the big stage. They thrive on it. It’s like they’re playing with house money.

This game is not just about X’s and O’s. It’s about psychology, about who wants it more. With their home crowd and underdog mentality, can Penn State pull off the upset? Or will Ohio State silence the doubters with their championship pedigree and ability to perform under pressure? It’s a high-stakes game, folks, and the tension is thicker than a Philly cheesesteak.

Prediction

This is not merely a contest of athletic prowess. It’s a clash of wills, a battle for supremacy. Hungry for victory, Penn State seeks to break the chains of history. Ohio State, the reigning king, fights to preserve its legacy.

The final whistle echoes through the valley. The scoreboard illuminates the night: Penn State 24, Ohio State 21. The upset is complete. The Nittany Lions have roared to victory, their hearts and spirit carrying them through the storm. Ohio State, wounded but not broken, retreats into the night, knowing that the battle for dominance has just begun.

Game 3: Pitt @ SMU

No. 18 Pittsburgh (7-0, 3-0 ACC) will face No. 20 SMU (7-1, 4-0 ACC) in a crucial ACC matchup on Saturday, November 2, 2024, at Gerald J. Ford Stadium in University Park, Texas—the game broadcast on the ACC Network.

Betting Odds and Predictions

The betting odds for this game favor SMU:

Spread: SMU -7.5
Moneyline: SMU -340, Pittsburgh +270
Over/Under: 59 points

Interestingly, the College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter (CFN FPM) sees the game as a “pick’em”.

Key Factors

Historical Record: SMU leads the all-time series 3-2-1, with their last meeting in 2012.

Recent Performance: Pittsburgh is undefeated at 7-0, while SMU has a strong 7-1 record.

Against the Spread (ATS): Pittsburgh has been excellent ATS at 6-1, including 2-0 as an underdog. SMU has failed to cover three times as a favorite this season.

Weather: The forecast calls for rainy conditions, which could impact the game plan for both teams.

Quarterback Play: SMU’s switch to Kevin Jennings at quarterback has recently improved their performance.

Outlook by Team

Pittsburgh:

The Panthers have a 50.6% winning probability for this game.
They’ve won many close games this season, suggesting luck and resilience.
Their defense has been opportunistic, with three pick-sixes in their last game against Syracuse.

SMU:

The Mustangs have a 49.4% winning probability for this game.
They’ve shown consistent improvement, especially since changing quarterbacks.
SMU is coming off a game with six turnovers, which is likely an anomaly.

Analysis

In this matchup, we have two overperforming squads defying preseason predictions, each with a unique storyline. Pittsburgh, sitting undefeated, has won a series of nail-biters, showing grit but perhaps testing the bounds of luck. Conversely, SMU has been on a steady upward trajectory, bolstered by a passionate home crowd that could be a game-changer.

Key Factors to Watch:

Turnover Battle: Both teams have recently emerged from turnover-heavy games that were borderline chaotic. But volatility doesn’t tend to linger; we’re likely to see a reversion to the mean here. This could give an edge to whichever team capitalizes on each opportunity.

SMU’s Dual-Threat QB: Pittsburgh’s defense hasn’t faced a genuine dual-threat quarterback, which will test their ability to handle both the pass and the scramble. SMU’s quarterback, Jennings, brings a dynamic quality that could break open Pittsburgh’s defensive schemes.

Weather Impact: Forecasts call for rain, which often turns passing into a slippery gamble. In such conditions, expect a heavy reliance on the ground game, potentially increasing the chance of turnovers, fumbles, and short-field opportunities.

Prediction

While Pittsburgh has proven itself resilient in close encounters, SMU’s home-field advantage and steadily improving roster could tilt the scales. Jennings and the Mustangs’ offense should be capable of pressuring Pittsburgh’s defense in ways they haven’t yet experienced this season. Given a return to average turnover rates and SMU’s balanced approach, they look positioned to edge out the Panthers.

Score Prediction:

SMU 31, Pittsburgh 24

This forecast aligns with the current betting odds, reflecting the likely tightness of the contest. With the potential for rain to stymie offensive flow, the game should settle under the 59-point over/under, as weather conditions push teams to lean more on the ground game and conservative strategies.

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Why Riley & Day Are Poised to Shatter Expectations (Or Crash and Burn)

Mark Haines on August 28, 2024

The Coaches on the (Supposed) Hot Seat: Lincoln Riley and Ryan Day
The college football season hasn’t started, and the “hot seat” talk is already in full swing. Pundits and fans are sharpening their pitchforks, ready to skew any coach who doesn’t deliver immediate, flawless results. Lincoln Riley at USC and Ryan Day at Ohio State are two names that keep popping up. Let’s examine whether these coaches genuinely feel the heat or it’s just the usual preseason hype.

Lincoln Riley: The USC Savior or a Trojan Horse?
On the surface, it seems absurd to suggest Lincoln Riley is on the hot seat. He led USC to a Pac-12 Championship appearance and coached Caleb Williams to a Heisman Trophy in his first season. But the Trojans stumbled to an 8-5 record in 2023. While still potent with Williams at the helm, the defense was a sieve, and the offense couldn’t overcome the defensive woes. The sting of losses to Notre Dame and UCLA still lingers (how do you not have your team “hyped” to play your two biggest rivals?), and some question whether Riley is the right man for the job.

So, is Riley’s seat hot?
Not really. Let’s be honest; he inherited a program in shambles. Rebuilding takes time, and Riley has made significant progress. The move to the Big Ten is a new ballgame, and he deserves a chance to adapt. His track record speaks for itself – the man knows how to develop quarterbacks and attract top talent. USC’s administration didn’t shell out millions for a quick fix; they’re invested in Riley’s long-term vision.

But, there’s always a ‘but’…

Winning cures all. Riley’s current winning percentage is .704, barely above the acceptable USC minimum of .691(calculated by Coaches Hot Seat.)
USC isn’t just about winning; it’s about tradition. Riley needs to embrace the legacy of coaches like Jones, McKay, Robinson, and Carroll. They set the standard at USC.
Recruiting matters. Southern California is a goldmine of talent. Riley must focus on locking down the local kids, not chasing pipe dreams nationwide.
The Notre Dame rivalry is sacred. Riley’s talk of ditching it and being “more like Alabama” is blasphemy to Trojan fans. USC has its own unique identity, and Riley needs to respect that.
• It’s the little things, too. Assigning jersey numbers with history, opening up to the media, and stop whining about the schedule. Act like you’re a $10 million coach at USC.

Ryan Day: The Buckeye Burden
Ryan Day’s resume at Ohio State is stellar: a 55-8 record and two Big Ten championships. But those three consecutive losses to Michigan? They’re a scarlet letter on his otherwise impressive tenure. The Buckeye faithful crave dominance, especially against their arch-nemesis. The pressure to beat Michigan and win a national championship is immense.

Is Day’s job in jeopardy?
Not yet. He’s consistently delivered success, and the team is primed for another strong season. The expanded College Football Playoff gives them more chances to contend for a title, even if they slip up against Michigan. Day’s track record and the program’s strength suggest he’s not on the hot seat…yet.

But the pressure is mounting…

Losing to Michigan again would be catastrophic. It’s not just about the rivalry; it’s about maintaining the program’s aura of invincibility.
Missing the playoffs, even with the expanded format, would be a major letdown after a hyped offseason.
A blowout loss in a big game could raise questions about Day’s leadership and ability to make adjustments.
Any signs of player discontent or locker room issues could snowball into a full-blown crisis.
A significant decline in performance, with multiple losses and a lack of competitiveness, could seal Day’s fate.

The Bottom Line
Both Riley and Day are under the microscope. But for now, their seats are lukewarm at best. They have the talent, the resources, and the support to turn things around. The 2024 season will be a defining one for both coaches. Will they rise to the occasion, or will the hot seat rumors become a self-fulfilling prophecy? Only time will tell.

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