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Week 7 – Coaches Hot Seat Rankings

Mark Haines on October 6, 2025

We’re officially past the halfway point of the 2025 college football season, and the bodies are starting to pile up.

This is when the excuses run out. “We’re young” doesn’t work anymore. “We’re installing a new system” isn’t cutting it. “We just need more time” sounds like desperation. October is when college football separates the pretenders from the contenders—and more importantly, it’s when athletic directors start having quiet conversations with search firms about who might be available in December.

Some coaches entered the season on the hot seat and managed to cool things down. Others have made their situations exponentially worse. And a few—well, a few are coaching for their jobs every single Saturday, whether they want to admit it or not.

Here are the 10 coaches sitting on the hottest seats in college football right now, ranked from “you’re probably gone” to “start packing”:

1. Trent Dilfer, UAB (American)

Here’s the thing about Trent Dilfer: nobody cares that you won a Super Bowl twenty-something years ago when you’re 3-4 and sitting at the bottom of the American Athletic Conference. Dilfer came in talking a big game about “building champions” and “culture,” but UAB looks worse now than it did before he arrived. The Blazers were a scrappy, competitive program under Bill Clark. Now? They’re getting boat-raced by teams they used to beat. When you replace a beloved coach and immediately tank the program, the seat doesn’t just get hot—it becomes a five-alarm fire.

2. Billy Napier, Florida (SEC)

Billy Napier beat Texas, and some want to pretend like that changes everything. It doesn’t. Know what beating Texas gets you at Florida? Another week. Maybe two. One upset doesn’t erase two and a half years of organizational failure. Napier is still 15-18 overall. He’s still the coach who turned one of college football’s blue bloods into a mediocre SEC also-ran. The Gators are still paying him $7+ million to compete for bowl eligibility while Georgia and Alabama compete for national championships. That’s unacceptable. The Texas win was impressive—sure—but Florida fans have seen this movie before. A big win that makes everyone feel good, followed by three inexplicable losses that remind you why the seat was hot in the first place. Napier didn’t save his job. He just delayed the inevitable conversation about when, not if, Florida moves on.

3. Mike Norvell, Florida State (ACC)

Three wins over Florida, Kent State, and an FCS team have created an illusion of recovery. The national media moved on. The hot seat conversations shifted elsewhere. Mike Norvell seems to have escaped scrutiny.

But here’s what nobody’s talking about:

Florida State hasn’t won an ACC game since November 2023. That’s a 15-game conference losing streak spanning two full seasons. The Seminoles are 0-2 in ACC play right now. The streak is alive and getting longer.

Think about that timeline:

  • 2023: 13-1, ACC Champions
  • 2024: 2-10 overall, 1-7 in conference
  • 2025: 3-2 overall, 0-2 in conference

This isn’t a one-year blip. This is a two-year organizational collapse at one of college football’s blue bloods. Norvell went from undefeated to unwatchable in less than 365 days, and the worst part? There’s no evidence that things are getting better. The wins are smoke and mirrors. The losses in conference play are the reality. And if FSU can’t figure out how to win an ACC game soon, Norvell won’t be around to see Year 4.

4. Jeff Choate, Nevada (Mountain West)

Jeff Choate is discovering that what works at Montana State may not necessarily translate to the FBS level. Nevada is 2-5, and worse, they’re not even competitive in games they should win. Choate’s “tough, physical football” approach sounds great in theory, but when you’re getting pushed around by mid-tier Mountain West teams, it’s clear something isn’t working. The Wolf Pack faithful are patient people, but patience runs out when you’re staring down a 3-9 or 4-8 season. Choate needs to show he can adapt—and fast—or he’ll be heading back to the FCS.

5. Joe Moorhead, Akron (MAC)

Joe Moorhead’s track record says he should be better than this. He’s coordinated elite offenses. He won at Fordham. But Mississippi State? Mississippi State fans still haven’t forgiven him for tanking their program. And now at Akron, he’s showing flashes of the same problem: his teams look good on paper but can’t finish. The Zips are 2-6, and here’s the frustrating part—they’re winning the stat sheet in games they lose. Yards? Check. First downs? Check. Time of possession? Check. But stats don’t win games. Scoring touchdowns and field goals wins games. And Akron can’t score when it matters. They move the ball between the 20s and then stall out in the red zone. That’s coaching. That’s execution. That’s on Moorhead. A couple of wins this season is technically an improvement over the dumpster fire Akron has been, but when you’re celebrating 2-6 as progress, your seat is scorching hot.

6. Butch Jones, Arkansas State (Sun Belt)

Butch Jones is proof that just because you failed upward once doesn’t mean you’ll get a second chance. Jones was a disaster at Tennessee, and now he’s a disaster at Arkansas State. The Red Wolves are underperforming in a Sun Belt Conference that’s supposed to be wide open, and Jones’s “championship culture” shtick is no longer resonating. Players aren’t buying in, fans aren’t showing up, and the program feels like it’s treading water. Arkansas State didn’t hire Butch Jones to be mediocre—they hired him because they thought he’d learned from his Tennessee mistakes. Turns out, he didn’t.

7. James Franklin, Penn State (Big Ten)

James Franklin just lost to UCLA. UCLA. A UCLA team so bad that they fired their offensive coordinator mid-season. A UCLA team that handed play-calling duties to Jerry Neuheisel—yes, Rick Neuheisel’s son—who proceeded to carve up Penn State’s defense like he was running the 2001 Miami Hurricanes offense. And Franklin? Franklin made zero adjustments. He stood on the sideline at the Rose Bowl, watching Jerry’s revamped offense shred his team while CBS cameras cut to Rick Neuheisel in the studio, celebrating his son’s victory. This wasn’t just a loss. This was the biggest upset of the season. This was a program-defining embarrassment. Penn State fans are done with “good enough.” They’re done with 10-win seasons that end with inexplicable losses to teams they should beat by 20. Franklin recruits at an elite level. He has NFL talent all over the roster. But when it matters—when his team needs him to make an adjustment, outsmart a first-time play-caller, show up in a big moment—he disappears. That’s why his seat is nuclear hot. Losing to UCLA in 2025 isn’t just bad; it’s unacceptable.

9. Derek Mason, Middle Tennessee (C-USA)

Derek Mason is a defensive coach in an era where offense wins championships, and it shows. Middle Tennessee is 2-6, and while the defense occasionally flashes, the offense is unwatchable. Mason’s problem is that he’s building a program like it’s 2005, not 2025. In today’s college football, you need to score 35+ points to win games, and the Blue Raiders can barely crack 20. Mason’s seat is hot because MTSU fans are asking a fair question: What exactly are we getting better at? If the answer is “nothing,” then it’s time to move on.

10. Scotty Walden, UTEP (C-USA)

Scotty Walden is the new kid on the block, and he’s already in trouble. UTEP hired him because of his success at Austin Peay, but the jump from FCS to FBS is massive—and Walden is drowning. The Miners are 1-7, and it’s not even close. They’re getting blown out on a weekly basis, and there’s no sign of improvement. The issue isn’t just that UTEP is losing—it’s that they look completely unprepared. Walden’s seat is hot because if you can’t show any progress in Year 1, people start wondering if you’re the right guy. And at UTEP, where expectations are low, that’s saying something.

Where does your coach stand? Check out the complete 136 FBS Coaches Hot Seat Rankings.

The Bottom Line:

These 10 coaches are in survival mode. Some will make it to bowl season. Some won’t make it to Thanksgiving. And a few might shock everyone and save their jobs with a November run that makes athletic directors rethink everything.

But here’s the reality: once you’re on a hot seat list, you’re never really off it. You’re just buying time until the next loss reignites the conversation.

Want to know who else we’re watching? Our newsletter subscribers get an exclusive breakdown of 4 under-the-radar coaches who aren’t on this list yet—but probably should be. These are the names nobody’s talking about right now, but will be by season’s end.

Subscribe here to get the full hot seat analysis delivered straight to your inbox every week.

Because in college football, the only thing hotter than the playoff race is the coaching carousel—and we’re tracking every name, every rumor, and every AD who’s about to make a very expensive decision.

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Penn State Football 2025: Why This Is Championship or Bust Season

Mark Haines on June 5, 2025

There has never been more pressure on a Penn State football season than what awaits in 2025.

After a historic 13-win campaign that ended one game short of the national championship, the Nittany Lions return with their best roster in decades, championship expectations, and zero excuses left. Head coach James Franklin faces the ultimate test of his 12-year tenure, while quarterback Drew Allar carries the hopes of a Heisman Trophy and the weight of an entire fan base’s dreams.

This isn’t just another season in Happy Valley. This is the year Penn State either breaks through to college football’s summit or faces uncomfortable questions about whether it can ever get there under Franklin’s leadership.

The foundation has been laid, the pieces are in place, and the moment has arrived.

The 2024 Season Set an Impossible Standard to Match

Penn State’s 2024 campaign rewrote the program’s record books in ways that seemed impossible just years earlier.

The numbers tell the story of a breakthrough season:

  • 13 total wins (most in program history)
  • First College Football Playoff semifinal appearance
  • First top-five ranking since 2005
  • 430.2 yards per game on offense (elite efficiency)
  • 101.9 rushing yards allowed per game (4th nationally)
  • Only 0.9 turnovers per game (incredible discipline)

The playoff run captured the nation’s attention. Penn State demolished SMU 38-10 in the first round at Beaver Stadium, conquered Boise State 31-14 in the Fiesta Bowl, then fell heartbreakingly to Notre Dame 27-24 in the Orange Bowl semifinal.

That near-miss has become the driving force behind 2025’s championship-or-bust mentality.

The Nittany Lions proved they belonged among college football’s elite, but proving it and winning it are two different things. The 2024 season established the ceiling—now they must reach it.

Drew Allar: The Heisman Candidate Carrying Championship Dreams

Drew Allar isn’t just Penn State’s quarterback—he’s the key to everything the program hopes to accomplish.

The senior signal-caller threw for 3,327 yards and 24 touchdowns in 2024 while completing 66.5% of his passes with just eight interceptions. But statistics only tell part of Allar’s story. His growth from promising recruit to legitimate Heisman candidate represents the evolution of Penn State’s championship aspirations.

Current Heisman odds position Allar favorably:

  • MGM lists him at +1400
  • Tied for third-best odds with Clemson’s Cade Klubnik
  • Behind only Texas’s Arch Manning and LSU’s Garrett Nussmeier
  • Only non-quarterback ahead of him is Ohio State’s Jeremiah Smith

The trajectory suggests Allar is poised for a breakout season.

His completion percentage jumped from 59.9% in 2023 to 66.5% in 2024, while yards per attempt rose from 6.8 to 8.4. Recent analysis suggests that if Allar achieves approximately 70.5% completion rate, 3,630 total yards, and 35 total touchdowns, “those numbers would put him squarely in line with or ahead of recent Heisman winners.”

The supporting cast has been upgraded significantly. Syracuse transfer Trebor Pena led the ACC with 84 receptions for 941 yards and nine touchdowns, providing the explosive receiver Penn State lacked. Combined with returning weapons and the nation’s best running back duo in Kaytron Allen and Nicholas Singleton, Allar has everything needed to compete for individual honors.

If Allar reaches his ceiling, Penn State reaches theirs.

Roster Continuity Creates Unprecedented Opportunity

Penn State’s decision to retain 14 starters represents one of the highest totals among power conference teams.

In an era of rampant roster turnover, this continuity provides a massive competitive advantage:

Offensive Continuity:

  • Entire starting offensive line returns (allowed just 1.4 sacks/game)
  • Both Allen and Singleton return after 2,207 combined rushing yards
  • Quarterback stability with Allar’s third year as starter
  • Upgraded receiver corps through strategic transfers

Defensive Foundation:

  • Five starters return despite NFL departures
  • Rising stars like Tony Rojas and Zakee Wheatley step into larger roles
  • Athletic linebackers provide versatility for new schemes
  • Young secondary with significant upside

Strategic Portal Additions:

  • Trebor Pena (WR) – ACC leader in receptions
  • Amare Campbell (LB) – 76 tackles, 6.5 sacks at UNC
  • Enai White (EDGE) – Helps replace Abdul Carter’s production
  • Multiple depth pieces addressing specific needs

The 2025 recruiting class, ranked No. 12 nationally, features immediate contributors led by five-star offensive tackle Malachi Goodman and four-star defensive end Daniel Jennings.

This roster combination of experience, talent, and strategic additions is unprecedented in the Franklin era.

Jim Knowles Brings Championship-Level Defense

The hiring of Jim Knowles as defensive coordinator represents Penn State’s boldest move toward a national championship.

Knowles arrives from Ohio State with a reputation for innovative, high-pressure schemes designed to disrupt elite quarterbacks. His defensive philosophy directly addresses Penn State’s past struggles against top-tier offenses.

What Knowles brings to Happy Valley:

  • Aggressive, complex blitz packages
  • Multiple alignments using “Jack” linebacker concepts
  • Proven ability to develop NFL-caliber defenders
  • Experience winning big games against elite competition

Despite losing five players to the NFL Draft, the defense maintains significant talent. Defensive tackle Zane Durant, cornerback A.J. Harris, and defensive end Dani Dennis-Sutton “could very well be All-Americans in 2025,” while safety Zakee Wheatley returns after a standout 2024 campaign.

The secondary, while young, possesses the athletic ability to thrive under Knowles’ system.

Players like Elliot Washington II, Zion Tracy, and Dejuan Lane are positioned for expanded roles, supported by four-star freshman additions that ensure depth and competition.

Knowles’ arrival signals Penn State’s commitment to winning at the highest level. The $3.1 million investment demonstrates that Athletic Director Pat Kraft’s thinking was clear: “What is the dollar amount that is going to get us closer to a national title?”

The Schedule Presents Championship Opportunities and Challenges

Penn State’s path to a Big Ten championship and College Football Playoff berth is clear but not easy.

The season opens favorably with three non-conference games against Nevada, FIU, and Villanova, followed by a strategic bye week. This schedule enables the development of chemistry and the resolution of early-season issues before Big Ten play commences.

Key Games That Will Define the Season:

September 27 – Oregon at Penn State (White Out) The marquee home game against a top-10 Oregon team in White Out conditions. This early test could define the entire season’s trajectory.

October 18 – at Iowa Road games in Iowa City are notoriously difficult. Penn State must prove it can win tough road games against quality opponents.

November 1 – at Ohio State, the ultimate test. Franklin’s record against the Buckeyes must improve for championship dreams to become a reality.

The Numbers Game: ESPN’s FPI gives Penn State:

  • 63.8% chance to make the College Football Playoff
  • 7.6% chance to win the national championship
  • Projected win total of 10.2 games
  • No. 5 ranking nationally behind Texas, Georgia, Ohio State, and Alabama

Success requires winning the games that matter most.

Franklin’s Job Security Depends on Breaking Through

James Franklin enjoys an 85% fan approval rating, but 2025 represents his ultimate test.

According to CFB insider Josh Pate, Franklin maintains strong fan support despite criticism from vocal minorities. However, the pressure has never been greater for the 12th-year coach.

College football insider Tom Hannifan captured the current sentiment perfectly: “I think the general temperature of the room is Penn State needs to win the National Championship in 2025. It’s boom or bust.”

The criticism stems from Franklin’s record against elite competition:

  • 1-18 mark against AP Top 5 teams
  • Struggles in crucial moments against Ohio State and Michigan
  • Orange Bowl loss to Notre Dame continues pattern of near-misses

Yet dismissing Franklin’s tenure ignores substantial evidence of success. Since the 2016 Pittsburgh loss that sparked initial hot seat speculation, Franklin has compiled a 78-31 record (.716 winning percentage) with multiple conference championship game appearances and the program’s first playoff semifinal berth.

Franklin’s 2021 contract extension runs through 2031 with significant buyout protection, reflecting institutional confidence.

The Jim Knowles hiring represents the program’s commitment to providing Franklin with every resource necessary to break through. Penn State has built a consistent contender—something the program hadn’t achieved since the Joe Paterno era.

With eight consecutive seasons of five or more NFL draft picks and top-15 recruiting classes, the foundation for sustained excellence is undeniable.

Championship or Bust: Why 2025 Is Different

This isn’t just another season with high expectations—it’s the culmination of everything Franklin has built.

The organizational alignment between university leadership, athletic administration, and the football program has never been stronger. Athletic Director Pat Kraft and President Neeli Bendapudi have provided unprecedented resources and support.

What makes 2025 unique:

  • Drew Allar’s final season and Heisman candidacy
  • Elite roster continuity in the transfer portal era
  • Defensive coordinator upgrade with championship experience
  • Strongest recruiting pipeline in program history
  • Complete organizational support and resource allocation

The schedule presents both opportunities and challenges, with early tests serving as measuring sticks for elite aspirations. Success will be measured not just by wins and losses, but by the ability to finally break through in the biggest moments against the most elite competition.

Penn State has never been better positioned for a championship run.

The pieces are in place, the expectations are clear, and the opportunity is unprecedented. In Happy Valley, anything short of a championship-level season will feel like a disappointment, but the ceiling has never been higher for Penn State football.

The question isn’t whether Penn State can compete with college football’s elite—2024 proved that.

The question is whether they can beat them when it matters most. The answer will define both the 2025 season and James Franklin’s legacy in Happy Valley.

The Next Billion Dollar Game

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Notre Dame vs Penn State: A Clash of Titans in the Orange Bowl Semi Final

Mark Haines on January 8, 2025

Thursday, January 9, 2025 | 7:30 p.m. ET

No. 7 Notre Dame vs. No. 6 Penn State

Hard Rock Stadium | Miami Gardens, Florida

In a season where both teams have proven their mettle with identical 13-1 records, Thursday’s College Football Playoff semifinal between Notre Dame and Penn State promises to be a defensive masterclass with championship implications.

The Tale of Two Defenses

Penn State’s defensive unit has been extraordinary this season, holding opponents to a mere 288.8 yards per game. But numbers only tell part of the story.

  • Their rush defense has been particularly suffocating, allowing just 100.9 yards per game on the ground, forcing teams to abandon their running game early.
  • With 39 sacks on the season (2.6 per game), they’ve consistently made quarterbacks uncomfortable in the pocket.
  • The uncertain status of star pass rusher Abdul Carter could impact their defensive prowess, though their depth has been a strength all year.

Notre Dame’s defense matches up impressively, yielding only 295.4 yards per game, with a knack for game-changing plays.

  • Their opportunistic defense has created 31 takeaways this season, including 18 interceptions.
  • Safety Xavier Watts has been a ball hawk, securing six interceptions and creating havoc in the secondary.
  • The loss of cornerback Benjamin Morrison could test their secondary depth against Penn State’s passing attack

Offensive Philosophy: A Study in Contrasts

When Penn State has the ball, expect a balanced attack that keeps defenses guessing.

  • Quarterback Drew Allar has been efficient and explosive, throwing for 3,192 yards with 24 touchdowns and only seven interceptions.
  • Running back Nicholas Singleton has been a force, accumulating 1,015 yards and 14 total touchdowns.
  • Their 436.3 yards per game come from a near-perfect balance of 234.1 passing and 202.2 rushing yards.

Notre Dame’s offense tells a different story, built on a punishing ground game and dual-threat capability.

  • Transfer quarterback Riley Leonard has been a revelation, passing for 2,383 yards and 18 touchdowns while adding 831 rushing yards
  • Running back Jeremiyah Love leads the ground assault with 1,076 yards and 18 total touchdowns.
  • Their 406.6 yards per game lean heavily on the run, averaging 217.5 rushing yards per contest.

The X-Factor: Special Teams and Field Position

Special teams might be the difference-maker in a game that could come down to the finest margins.

  • Notre Dame holds a slight edge in kickoff returns, averaging 23.9 yards compared to Penn State’s 21.2
  • Penn State’s kicking game could be compromised with Sander Sahaydak’s status uncertain
  • Field position battles could prove crucial in what promises to be a defensive struggle

The Prediction

When two evenly matched teams collide, the most minor details often determine the outcome. Penn State’s balanced offensive attack and elite defense give them a slight edge, but Notre Dame’s ability to create turnovers and control the ground game keeps this incredibly close.

Final Score Prediction: Penn State 23, Notre Dame 20

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The Chess Match: Two Coaches, Two Programs, One Bowl Game Collision – SMU at Penn State

Mark Haines on December 20, 2024

Nobody expected SMU’s Rhett Lashlee to pull off what might be college football’s most remarkable transformation story of 2023.

In just three years, Lashlee has engineered what old-guard football minds considered impossible:

  • Transforming a middling SMU program into an 11-2 powerhouse
  • Dominating their inaugural ACC season with swagger and style
  • Accumulating a jaw-dropping 21-3 conference record that has athletic directors nationwide reaching for their checkbooks

The Established Empire Watches

Meanwhile, in Happy Valley, James Franklin continues orchestrating Penn State’s methodical march toward college football supremacy. His Nittany Lions mirror their coach: disciplined, relentless, and utterly predictable in their pursuit of excellence.

A Tale of Two Systems

What makes this bowl matchup fascinating isn’t just the clash of programs – it’s the statistical symmetry that shouldn’t exist:

The offenses move like twins separated at birth: SMU churning out 443.1 yards per game, Penn State barely ahead at 448.6. But defense? That’s where Franklin’s philosophy reveals itself in cold, hard numbers. His unit surrenders just 282.1 yards per game, while SMU’s gives up 326.1.

The X-Factor That Changes Everything

Here’s where the story takes its dramatic turn. SMU lost quarterback Preston Stone, the architectural centerpiece of their offensive explosion. Into this vacuum steps Kevin Jennings, talented but untested, facing a trial by fire against one of college football’s most sophisticated defensive machines.

The Ground Game Chess Match

Football often reveals its true nature in the running game, and here’s where the contrasts sharpen:

  • SMU rides Brashard Smith’s explosive 1,270 yards and 14 touchdowns
  • Penn State counters with a two-headed monster: Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen, combining for over 1,600 yards of controlled destruction.

The Final Act

The smart money sees Penn State emerging victorious, 31-17, not because they’re the better program—but because they’re the more complete program at this precise moment in time. The loss of Stone isn’t just about missing a quarterback; it’s about missing the keystone of an offensive architecture that took three years to perfect.

Ultimately, this game might tell us less about who wins and more about where college football is heading. Lashlee’s SMU represents the bold new challengers, while Franklin’s Penn State embodies the power of systematic, year-over-year excellence. And that’s the real story worth watching.

Game at a Glance

Game: SMU at Penn State

Time: Noon Eastern

TV: TNT

 SMUPenn State
Record11-211-2
Points Per Game38.5434.38
Points Allowed20.8516.38
Total Offense443.1 ypg448.6 ypg
Total Defense326.1 ypg282.1 ypg
SRS Rating16.66 (8th)17.20 (6th)
Strength of Schedule2.51 (49th)4.20 (30th)

Key Personnel Changes

SMU Impact Losses:

  • QB Preston Stone (3,471 yards, 27 TDs, 9 INTs)
  • Kevin Jennings steps in (3,050 yards, 22 TDs, 8 INTs)
  • CB Jahari Rogers
  • DL Omari Abor

Penn State Impact Losses:

  • QB Beau Pribula (275 yards, 5 TDs, 242 rushing yards)
  • Drew Allar remains the starter (2,894 yards, 21 TDs, 7 INTs)

Key Matchups

Quarterback Battle:
Kevin Jennings must lead SMU’s offense against Penn State’s elite defense that allows only 16.38 points per game

Ground Game:

  • SMU: Brashard Smith (1,270 yards, 5.9 avg, 14 TDs)
  • Penn State: Nicholas Singleton (838 yards, 6.4 avg, 7 TDs) and Kaytron Allen (822 yards, 4.8 avg, 6 TDs)

Defensive Edge:
Penn State’s defense allows only 103.6 rushing yards per game and has accumulated 33 sacks.

Final Score:

Penn State 31 SMU 17

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Big Ten Conference Championship Preview: Oregon vs Penn State

Mark Haines on December 5, 2024

We’ve broken down both teams – Oregon vs Penn State for the Big Ten Conference Championship Game. We’re calling this game:

The Perfect Season Meets the Perfect Defense: A Tale of Two Programs

In the high-stakes world of college football, where billions of dollars flow through palatial training facilities and coaches’ contracts read like small-nation GDPs, two programs have found remarkably different paths to the same destination. The Oregon Ducks, with their Silicon Valley-meets-Saturday-afternoon approach to offense, carry the weight of an unblemished 12-0 record. Their opponents, the Penn State Nittany Lions, have turned defensive football into a kind of performance art, yielding yards with all the generosity of a loan shark.

The numbers tell a story that Vegas oddsmakers have been struggling to decode. Oregon’s offense, orchestrated by the Oklahoma transfer Dillon Gabriel (who has thrown for 3,275 yards with the precision of a surgeon), generates 448.5 yards per game – exactly 5.7 yards more than Penn State. In the multi-billion dollar business of college football, that’s the equivalent of finding a penny in your couch cushions.

But here’s where it gets interesting. Let’s break it down:

Team Comparison: Penn State vs Oregon (2024 Season)

Overall Performance

Oregon has had a perfect season so far, boasting a 12-0 record, while Penn State has had an impressive 11-1 record. Both teams have shown strong performances throughout the season, earning their spots in the Big Ten Championship game.

Offensive Comparison

  1. Passing Game:
    • Oregon: 277.6 yards per game, 24 touchdowns, 6 interceptions
    • Penn State: 248.2 yards per game, 24 touchdowns, 6 interceptions

Oregon has a slight edge in passing yards, but both teams have identical touchdown and interception numbers.

  1. Rushing Game:
    • Oregon: 170.9 yards per game, 27 touchdowns
    • Penn State: 194.7 yards per game, 26 touchdowns

Penn State has a more productive rushing attack, averaging about 24 more yards per game than Oregon.

  1. Total Offense:
    • Oregon: 448.5 yards per game
    • Penn State: 442.8 yards per game

Both teams have very similar total offensive production, with Oregon slightly ahead.

Defensive Comparison

  1. Passing Defense:
    • Oregon: 171.5 yards allowed per game, 10 interceptions
    • Penn State: 169.8 yards allowed per game, 12 interceptions

Penn State has a marginally better pass defense and has forced more interceptions.

  1. Rushing Defense:
    • Oregon: 112.3 yards allowed per game
    • Penn State: 97.0 yards allowed per game

Penn State’s rush defense is significantly stronger, allowing about 15 fewer yards per game.

  1. Total Defense:
    • Oregon: 283.8 yards allowed per game
    • Penn State: 266.8 yards allowed per game

Penn State’s overall defense is more effective, allowing 17 fewer total yards per game.

Key Players

Oregon:

  • QB Dillon Gabriel: 3275 passing yards, 24 TDs, 6 INTs
  • RB Jordan James: 1166 rushing yards, 13 TDs
  • WR Tez Johnson: 685 receiving yards, 9 TDs

Penn State:

  • QB Drew Allar: 2668 passing yards, 18 TDs, 5 INTs
  • RB Nicholas Singleton: 733 rushing yards, 7 TDs
  • TE Tyler Warren: 978 receiving yards, 6 TDs

Special Teams

Both teams have solid kicking games, with Oregon slightly more accurate on field goals (78.9% vs 72.2% for Penn State).

Analysis

Penn State’s defensive coordinator has built something akin to a maximum-security prison for opposing offenses. They allow just 97 yards rushing per game – the number that makes old-school Big Ten coaches misty-eyed. It’s as if they’ve solved a mathematical equation that’s puzzled defensive minds for generations: how to stop the run and the pass without sacrificing.

The Nittany Lions’ Drew Allar, with his 2,668 passing yards, isn’t going to win any statistical beauty contests against Gabriel. However, in Tyler Warren, his tight end with 978 receiving yards, he’s found something even more valuable in modern football: reliability. Warren has become to Penn State what a good hedge fund is to a nervous investor – a safe harbor in turbulent times.

Oregon’s Jordan James, meanwhile, has turned running the football into a kind of performance art, accumulating 1,166 yards with the kind of efficiency that would make a German engineer proud. Every time he touches the ball, the advanced analytics computers at Oregon (and there are many) calculate a thousand possible outcomes. Most of them end with James in the end zone.

The kicking game is like comparing two slightly different shades of beige. Oregon converts 78.9% of its field goals, and Penn State 72.2%. Those percentage points might as well be gold dust in a game this evenly matched.

What we have here is more than a football game. It’s a clash of philosophical approaches to the same problem: how to move an oddly shaped ball across 100 yards of artificial turf. Oregon has perfected the art of offensive efficiency, turning each drive into a masterclass in modern football theory. Penn State has instead chosen to perfect the art of denial, turning its defense into a kind of mathematical proof that yards can be subtracted.

The result should be something akin to watching quantum physics play out on a football field – a perfect offense meeting an immovable defense with millions of dollars and countless dreams hanging in the balance.

Ultimately, this game will likely be decided not by the statistical margins that separate these teams – margins so thin you could slide them under a door – but by something far more primitive: which team can impose their will on the other. It’s the kind of story that makes college football the multi-billion-dollar theatre it is.

The Mathematics of Momentum: Game Prediction

If you spend enough time around Las Vegas bookmakers – those modern-day oracles who’ve turned point spreads into a science more precise than meteorology – you’ll learn that football games are just elaborate probability problems dressed up in school colors and fight songs. The Oregon-Penn State matchup presents the mathematical puzzle that keeps professional gamblers up at night.

Let’s break this down the way a Wall Street quant might approach their morning trading strategy:

Oregon’s offense, averaging 35.2 points per game, operates with the statistical consistency that would make a Six Sigma black belt weep with joy. The number feels almost artificially precise like it was generated by the same algorithms that power high-frequency trading.

Penn State’s defense, meanwhile, has turned opposing offenses into case studies in futility, holding teams to yardage totals that look more like batting averages. Their 266.8 yards allowed per game is the number that defensive coordinators frame and hang on their office walls.

But here’s where it gets interesting: Oregon’s Dillon Gabriel has been trading at a premium in the college football talent market. His 3,275 passing yards represent a 22.7% premium over Penn State’s Drew Allar – the kind of spread that would trigger arbitrage opportunities in any other market.

The turnover margins (+0.4 vs +0.6) are so close they’re practically a rounding error in the grand scheme. It’s like comparing the performance of two index funds that track slightly different versions of the same market.

When you feed all these numbers into the kind of predictive models that football analytics departments spend millions developing, you get something that looks less like a definitive answer and more like a probability distribution. But if you push me to put a number on it – the way a hedge fund manager eventually has to decide whether to buy or sell – I’ll say this:

Penn State 31, Oregon 24.

Red Zone – key to the game From B10 & Beyond @B10Beyond on X

“Found the Oregon weakness. Been rummaging through stats last couple of days when I can. Penn State is ranked 20th in Red Zone Defense. Fair. Oregon is ranked 73rd in Red Zone Defense. Not very good. If you can get down there, there’s a REALLY good chance you are scoring.“

It’s the kind of prediction that makes you understand why gambling is a multi-billion-dollar industry. Because in the end, we’re all just trying to put numbers on the unknowable, to quantify the human element that makes sports so captivating in the first place.

Make sure to catch the complete breakdown of all Conference Championship Games on the Targeting Winners podcast dropping Friday Afternoon on Spotify, Apple, or wherever you get your podcasts.

Got any thoughts on this game or preview? Let us know here.

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Coaches Hot Seat is Targeting Winners for Week 10

Mark Haines on October 31, 2024

Okay, folks, get ready. It’s that time of the week again when we dive headfirst into the chaotic, beautiful mess that is college football. Friday’s episode of the Targeting Winners podcast (available on Spotify, Apple, or wherever you get your podcasts) is coming at you hot, and trust me, you don’t want to miss this. They’ll be talking Xs and Os, dissecting matchups, and uncovering those hidden gems that’ll have you cashing in come Saturday.

Today, I’ll share my weekend bets and prep with you.  I’m not just throwing darts at a board. I’m breaking down film, analyzing stats, and getting into the nitty-gritty.

This week, I’ve got three games I’m reviewing: San Diego State at Boise State, Ohio State at Penn State, and Pitt at SMU. We’re talking potential upsets, high-scoring shootouts, and maybe even a bit of old-fashioned smashmouth football. So read my breakdown below, make your picks, and fire up Spotify, Apple, or wherever you get your podcasts on Friday afternoon. Then, get ready to ride the wave with us.

San Diego State at (15) Boise State

The San Diego State Aztecs (3-4) will face the No. 15 Boise State Broncos (6-1) in a Mountain West Conference matchup on Friday, November 1, 2024, at Albertsons Stadium in Boise, Idaho14. The game will kick off at 8:00 p.m. ET and be broadcast on Fox Sports 14.

Betting Odds and Predictions

Boise State is heavily favored in this matchup:

  • Spread: Boise State -23.5
  • Moneyline: Boise State -2439, San Diego State +1096
  • Over/Under: 57.5 points14

The College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter (CFN FPM) has a slightly tighter spread of Boise State -18.54.

Key Factors

Home Field Advantage: Boise State has a strong home field advantage, but San Diego State has won at Albertsons Stadium in the past (2018 and 2012).

Head-to-Head Record: This will be the 10th meeting between the two teams, with Boise State holding a slight 5-4 advantage.

Recent Performance: Boise State has won every game where it has been favored this year, while San Diego State has failed to win as an underdog.

Against the Spread (ATS): San Diego State is 3-2 ATS as an underdog, while Boise State has failed to cover three times as a double-digit favorite.

Weather: The forecast calls for temperatures around 42 degrees with a chance of showers, which could impact game performance.

Outlook by Team

San Diego State:

  • New head coach Sean Lewis wants to improve last year’s 4-8 record.
  • The Aztecs have an 8.3% winning probability for this game.
  • Their season outlook improves after this game, with better winning probabilities against upcoming opponents.

Boise State:

  • The Broncos have a 91.7% winning probability for this game.
  • They are on track for a potential Group of Five spot in the College Football Playoff, and their remaining games have high winning probabilities.

Analysis

Okay, you’ve got this classic David vs. Goliath scenario brewing in Boise. San Diego State, the scrappy underdog, is rolling into town with a new coach and something to prove. They’re like the Oakland A’s of college football, trying to outsmart the system with grit and a lot of hustle. But then there’s Boise State, the perennial powerhouse, the kings of the blue turf. They’re the New York Yankees, used to winning and expected to dominate.

But here’s the thing: Boise State has this weird quirk. When they’re supposed to win big, they sometimes… don’t. It’s like they get bored or something. And San Diego State? Well, they’ve been defying expectations all season. They’re like that one stock you didn’t think would make a comeback, but suddenly it’s surging. Nobody saw it coming.

You might think this is just another game, but it’s more than that. It’s a clash of cultures, a test of wills. Can San Diego State, with its new coach and underdog mentality, pull off the upset? Or will Boise State crush their dreams with its home-field advantage and history of dominance? It’s a high-stakes game, and the tension is thicker than the Idaho potato soup they serve in the stadium.

Prediction

The air crackles with anticipation. The Broncos, bathed in the eerie glow of the blue turf, exude an aura of invincibility. But beneath the surface, a tremor of doubt. The Aztecs, eyes locked on their prey, carry the quiet confidence of a wolf pack circling its quarry.

This is not a game of mere statistics and spreadsheets. It’s a battle of souls, a collision of destinies. Boise State, the established power, yearns to maintain its grip on the throne. The hungry challenger, San Diego State, fights for recognition and a place at the table.

The final whistle blows. The scoreboard tells a story of Boise State’s dominance: 35-14. But the numbers don’t reveal the whole truth. They don’t show the fierce struggle, the moments of brilliance, the echoes of what could have been. San Diego State, though defeated, leaves the field with heads held high. They have pushed the giants to the brink, proven their mettle, and earned respect that transcends the final score.

Game 2: (3) Ohio State at (7) Penn State

No. 3 Ohio State (7-1) will face No. 7 Penn State (7-0) in a crucial Big Ten matchup on Saturday, November 2, 2024, at Beaver Stadium in University Park, Pennsylvania. The game will kick off at noon ET and be broadcast on Fox.

Betting Odds and Predictions

The betting odds and predictions for this game are notably close:

  • Spread: SMU -7.5
  • Moneyline: SMU -340, Pittsburgh +270
  • Over/Under: 59 points

Interestingly, the College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter (CFN FPM) slightly favors Penn State with a spread of Penn State -1.5.

Key Factors

  • Recent History: Ohio State has won the last seven meetings between these teams, indicating a psychological edge.
  • Home Field Advantage: Penn State will benefit from playing at Beaver Stadium, which could be a significant factor.
  • Against the Spread (ATS): Both teams are 3-4 ATS this season, suggesting neither has a clear advantage in covering the spread.
  • Recent Performance: Ohio State has failed to cover in their last two games, including a narrow loss to Oregon.
  • Weather: The forecast calls for partly cloudy conditions with mild temperatures, which shouldn’t significantly impact the game.

Outlook by Team

Ohio State:

  • The Buckeyes have a 47.5% winning probability for this game.
  • A win would keep them in contention for the Big Ten Championship and the College Football Playoff.
  • Their remaining schedule looks favorable, with high winning probabilities against most opponents.

Penn State:

  • The Nittany Lions have a 52.5% winning probability for this game.
  • A win could potentially secure their spot in the College Football Playoff and the Big Ten title game.
  • Their remaining schedule appears relatively easy, with high winning probabilities against all opponents.

Analysis

This game is a real barnburner. Ohio State, the big, bad Buckeyes, strolling into Happy Valley like they own the place. They’re the Goldman Sachs of college football, all about tradition and pedigree. But Penn State? They’re the hungry upstarts, the Robinhood traders trying to disrupt the establishment.

Now, on paper, Ohio State should have this in the bag. They’ve got the history, the talent, the whole nine yards. But something’s not quite right. They’ve been stumbling lately, like a thoroughbred with a pulled hamstring. And Penn State? They’re playing with a fire in their belly, a chip on their shoulder. They’re like that meme stock, GameStop, ready to explode.

But here’s the kicker: Penn State has this weird thing about pressure. It’s like they get stage fright when the spotlight’s on. And Ohio State? Well, they’re used to the big stage. They thrive on it. It’s like they’re playing with house money.

This game is not just about X’s and O’s. It’s about psychology, about who wants it more. With their home crowd and underdog mentality, can Penn State pull off the upset? Or will Ohio State silence the doubters with their championship pedigree and ability to perform under pressure? It’s a high-stakes game, folks, and the tension is thicker than a Philly cheesesteak.

Prediction

This is not merely a contest of athletic prowess. It’s a clash of wills, a battle for supremacy. Hungry for victory, Penn State seeks to break the chains of history. Ohio State, the reigning king, fights to preserve its legacy.

The final whistle echoes through the valley. The scoreboard illuminates the night: Penn State 24, Ohio State 21. The upset is complete. The Nittany Lions have roared to victory, their hearts and spirit carrying them through the storm. Ohio State, wounded but not broken, retreats into the night, knowing that the battle for dominance has just begun.

Game 3: Pitt @ SMU

No. 18 Pittsburgh (7-0, 3-0 ACC) will face No. 20 SMU (7-1, 4-0 ACC) in a crucial ACC matchup on Saturday, November 2, 2024, at Gerald J. Ford Stadium in University Park, Texas—the game broadcast on the ACC Network.

Betting Odds and Predictions

The betting odds for this game favor SMU:

  • Spread: SMU -7.5
  • Moneyline: SMU -340, Pittsburgh +270
  • Over/Under: 59 points

Interestingly, the College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter (CFN FPM) sees the game as a “pick’em”.

Key Factors

Historical Record: SMU leads the all-time series 3-2-1, with their last meeting in 2012.

Recent Performance: Pittsburgh is undefeated at 7-0, while SMU has a strong 7-1 record.

Against the Spread (ATS): Pittsburgh has been excellent ATS at 6-1, including 2-0 as an underdog. SMU has failed to cover three times as a favorite this season.

Weather: The forecast calls for rainy conditions, which could impact the game plan for both teams.

Quarterback Play: SMU’s switch to Kevin Jennings at quarterback has recently improved their performance.

Outlook by Team

Pittsburgh:

  • The Panthers have a 50.6% winning probability for this game.
  • They’ve won many close games this season, suggesting luck and resilience.
  • Their defense has been opportunistic, with three pick-sixes in their last game against Syracuse.

SMU:

  • The Mustangs have a 49.4% winning probability for this game.
  • They’ve shown consistent improvement, especially since changing quarterbacks.
  • SMU is coming off a game with six turnovers, which is likely an anomaly.

Analysis

In this matchup, we have two overperforming squads defying preseason predictions, each with a unique storyline. Pittsburgh, sitting undefeated, has won a series of nail-biters, showing grit but perhaps testing the bounds of luck. Conversely, SMU has been on a steady upward trajectory, bolstered by a passionate home crowd that could be a game-changer.

Key Factors to Watch:

Turnover Battle: Both teams have recently emerged from turnover-heavy games that were borderline chaotic. But volatility doesn’t tend to linger; we’re likely to see a reversion to the mean here. This could give an edge to whichever team capitalizes on each opportunity.

SMU’s Dual-Threat QB: Pittsburgh’s defense hasn’t faced a genuine dual-threat quarterback, which will test their ability to handle both the pass and the scramble. SMU’s quarterback, Jennings, brings a dynamic quality that could break open Pittsburgh’s defensive schemes.

Weather Impact: Forecasts call for rain, which often turns passing into a slippery gamble. In such conditions, expect a heavy reliance on the ground game, potentially increasing the chance of turnovers, fumbles, and short-field opportunities.

Prediction

While Pittsburgh has proven itself resilient in close encounters, SMU’s home-field advantage and steadily improving roster could tilt the scales. Jennings and the Mustangs’ offense should be capable of pressuring Pittsburgh’s defense in ways they haven’t yet experienced this season. Given a return to average turnover rates and SMU’s balanced approach, they look positioned to edge out the Panthers.

Score Prediction:

SMU 31, Pittsburgh 24

This forecast aligns with the current betting odds, reflecting the likely tightness of the contest. With the potential for rain to stymie offensive flow, the game should settle under the 59-point over/under, as weather conditions push teams to lean more on the ground game and conservative strategies.

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Week 9 Featured Games:The Underdogs, the Upsets, and the Unraveling

Mark Haines on October 26, 2024

Step back from the spreadsheets, the power rankings and the expert predictions – Week 9 featured games are about to remind us why we watch this sport in the first place: for the moments that defy logic and rewrite the script.

Early Game

No. 12 Notre Dame vs. No. 24 Navy

Noon Eastern/9:00 AM Pacific

Network: ABC

This isn’t just a football game; it’s a collision of worlds. Notre Dame, the wounded lion, stumbles into the arena, its playoff hopes hanging by a thread. Five starters down, they’re a symphony orchestra missing half its instruments. And Navy? They’re the barbarians at the gate, 6-0 and averaging 45 points a game, led by Blake Horvath, a quarterback who turns the triple option into a weapon of mass destruction. Imagine Barry Sanders with a playbook designed to make defensive coordinators spontaneously combust. The line moved? You bet it did. The smart money knows: Notre Dame’s defense is built for finesse, not this kind of organized chaos. They’re chess players facing a barroom brawl. If Navy pulls off the upset, it’s not just a win; it’s a statement. A declaration that the Midshipmen belong in the playoff conversation, while the Irish are left wondering where it all went wrong.

Afternoon Games

No. 21 Missouri at No. 15 Alabama

Gametime: 3:30 PM Eastern/12:30 PM Pacific

Network: ABC

The eyes of the college football world are on Tuscaloosa. Not just because Alabama has stumbled – two losses in three games is practically an apocalypse in these parts – but because a new era has dawned. The offensive guru, Kalen DeBoer, takes the reins from the legendary Nick Saban. The pressure is immense. Can DeBoer exorcise the ghosts of Alabama’s recent struggles and establish his reign? Or will Eli Drinkwitz and his Missouri Tigers play the role of party crashers, exposing the vulnerabilities of a transition program? This isn’t just a game; it’s a referendum on the future of Alabama football.  

No. 5 Texas at No. 25 Vanderbilt

Game Time: 4:15 PM Eastern/1:15 Pacific

Network: SEC Network

While Alabama grapples with a new identity, Vanderbilt embraces its unexpected transformation. They’ve slain giants, toppling Alabama and sending shockwaves through the SEC. Now, they face another test: the Texas Longhorns, a team still finding its footing after a humbling loss to Georgia. Diego Pavia, the Commodore quarterback, embodies this new Vanderbilt: fearless, confident, and ready to take on anyone. Texas, meanwhile, needs to rediscover its swagger. Can they overcome the chaos in Nashville and avoid becoming another victim of Vandy’s magic? Or will the Commodores continue their Cinderella story, proving their rise is no fluke?

Evening Game

No. 3 Penn State at Wisconsin

Game Time: 7:30 PM Eastern/4:30 PM Pacific

Network: NBC

The whispers are swirling in Happy Valley. “Ohio State, Ohio State, Ohio State.” It’s the biggest game on Penn State’s horizon, a clash of titans that could decide the Big Ten East. But first, there’s the matter of Wisconsin, a team lurking in the shadows, hungry to play spoiler. Fresh off a bruising battle with USC, Penn State can’t afford to look past this one. Camp Randall at night is a cauldron of noise and fury, a place where dreams go to die. But this Penn State team, led by the cool-headed Drew Allar, has the grit and the talent to silence the doubters. Their defense is a fortress, and Allar is growing into a true field general. Can they weather the storm in Madison and escape with their undefeated season intact? Or will Wisconsin, sensing vulnerability, deliver a knockout blow and send shockwaves through the Big Ten?

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Coaches Hot Seat is Targeting Winners for Week 9

Mark Haines on October 24, 2024

Think you know college football? Think again. Coaches Hot Seat spends a little time listening to the Targeting Winners Podcast every Friday afternoon during the season. We take our picks and look for the storylines, the upsets, the wins, and the losses to bring you the inside scoop on where the seats are getting hot. We’re not just talking about picking winners but about understanding the why behind the wins. The hidden narratives, the coaching mismatches, the moments that define a season.

The CFB Dudes at Targeting Winners live and breathe this stuff. They break down film, analyze matchups, and find the edges that the casual fan misses. We compare our picks with the Targeting Winner’s intel, and boom!

So buckle up, because we’re about to take you on a wild ride through three games we’ve got our eye on this week. Fans looking for an edge? You’ve come to the right place.

Notre Dame vs. Navy: The Midshipmen’s Mutiny

Notre Dame limps in, battered and bruised. Five starters down, maybe more. They’re like a prizefighter with a glass jaw, and Navy, they come in with a battering ram. 6-0, averaging 45 points a game. Blake Horvath, their quarterback? He’s not just running the triple option, he’s weaponizing it. Think Barry Sanders with a playbook designed to make defensive coordinators cry.

The line moved? Of course, it did. Smart money knows: Notre Dame’s defense hasn’t seen this kind of chaos. They’re trained for chess matches, not bar fights.

The Play: Navy +12.5. Take it, and don’t look back. This isn’t about talent; it’s about heart. Navy’s got it in spades.

Penn State vs. Wisconsin: The Calm Before the Storm

Penn State is undefeated, but they just survived a brawl with USC. Now they’re staring down Ohio State, the biggest game of their season. It’s a classic trap game. Wisconsin smells blood.

But here’s the thing: Penn State’s defense is a force. Drew Allar, their quarterback? He’s growing up fast. Wisconsin’s offense? Let’s say they haven’t exactly been lighting up the scoreboard.

Camp Randall’s a tough place to play, sure. But Penn State’s been there, done that. They’ve got the experience, the defense, and the quarterback play to weather the storm.

The Play: Penn State -6.5. They’ll win this one ugly, but a win’s a win. And take the Under 47.5. This game’s going to be a slugfest.

Boise State vs. UNLV: The Rebels’ Redemption

Boise State has Ashton Jeanty, a one-man wrecking crew. But here’s their problem: their quarterback, Maddux Madsen, is like a Ferrari with a lawnmower engine. He has lots of flash but not enough horsepower.

UNLV? They’ve got a secret weapon: the “Go-Go Offense.” Hajj-Malik Williams, their quarterback, is slinging the ball like he’s got something to prove. And their offensive line? They’re opening holes you could drive a truck through.

Boise’s defense? They lead the nation in sacks but can’t stop a nosebleed on third-and-short. UNLV’s going to exploit that weakness.

The Play: UNLV +140 on the moneyline. They’re at home, they’re playing with confidence, and they’re about to pull off the upset. Boise State? They’re about to learn a hard lesson: talent only gets you so far.

There you have it. Three games, three takes. This is all about the story. And these stories, they’re just getting started. Post your comments here.

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What We’re Watchin’ Saturday – Week 5 Edition

Mark Haines on September 28, 2024

Early Games

Kentucky at 6 Ole Miss

Game Time: Noon Eastern/9:00 AM Pacific

TV: ABC, ESPN+

Ole Miss is on fire; the Rebels are hotter than a two-dollar pistol. They’re lighting it up, leading the FBS in passing yards, total offense, scoring offense, and scoring defense. Dart’s slinging it like a gunslinger, and the Rebels are putting up video game numbers. But, let’s be honest, they’ve been playing a bunch of cupcakes. That changes this Saturday. Kentucky had Georgia on the ropes, and now they’re coming for Ole Miss. Can Kentucky slow down the Rebels’ high-octane offense? Or will Jaxson Dart and his crew keep this train rolling? This SEC showdown is about to get wild.

20 Oklahoma State at 23 Kansas State

Game Time: Noon Eastern/9:00 AM Pacific

TV: ESPN

We’ve got a Big 12 showdown brewing. Oklahoma State and Kansas State had their eyes on the prize, a Big 12 crown, and a shot at the Playoff. But now, one of them will be limping out of this weekend with two conference losses. Oklahoma State stumbled at home against Utah, and K-State got embarrassed by BYU. This isn’t just another game; this one has some serious stakes. Neither team wants to fall behind in this Big 12 title race dogfight. Keep your eyes on the quarterbacks. Bowman got yanked against Utah before leading a comeback that fell short, and Johnson threw up a couple of ducks against BYU. Who’s going to step up and lead their team to victory?

Afternoon Games

15 Louisville @ 16 Notre Dame

Game Time: 3:30 PM Eastern/12:30 PM Pacific

TV: Peacock

Louisville just passed their first real test against Georgia Tech. They got some help from their defense and special teams, and that Alabama transfer, Ja’Corey Brooks, looks like a highlight reel waiting to happen. Shough’s been sharp under center, but let’s be real: they only got two offensive touchdowns against GT. And they haven’t faced a defense like Notre Dame’s yet. This Irish defense is tough, and it is among the top 20 in the country. Louisville’s defense isn’t too shabby either, and Notre Dame’s offense has been sputtering except for that one trip to Purdue. Right now, Louisville looks like the more balanced team. A win on the road puts them in the conversation with the big boys, Miami and Clemson. For Notre Dame, it’s simple: win and stay on the Playoff path; lose, and that dream might be dead. This one is a slugfest.

Fresno State at UNLV

Game Time: 3:30 PM Eastern/12:30 PM Pacific

TV: FS1

Hold onto your hats because we’ve got an actual soap opera brewing in Vegas. Undefeated UNLV is in the spotlight, but not for the reasons they’d like. Their star quarterback, Matthew Sluka, is out, redshirting and hitting the transfer portal. A lot of controversy surrounds NIL deals, conference realignment, and a potential Group of 5 Playoff spot. Now, UNLV has to tune out all the noise and focus on the field. They’ve got a new quarterback, likely that FCS transfer Hajj-Malik Williams, and they’re facing a tough Fresno State team that gave Michigan a run for their money. This isn’t just a football game; it’s a full-blown drama.

Evening Games

2 Georgia at 4 Alabama

Game Time: 7:30 PM Eastern/4:30 PM Pacific

TV: ABC, ESPN+

This is it. The big one. Top-five showdown, SEC on SEC crime, Georgia versus Alabama. We haven’t seen these two Titans clash in the regular season since 2020. Since then, it’s been all neutral-site showdowns: SEC championships, National Championships. In those recent meetings, Bama’s got the edge, but Georgia walked away with the biggest prize, the natty. This time, the stakes are different; the Alabama coach is different, but the talent and the bad blood? That’s all still there. Can Georgia’s defense corral Jalen Milroe? Can DeBoer snag his first signature win as the head honcho in Tuscaloosa? There will be plenty of other big games this season, especially in the SEC. Heck, neither of these teams is even the top dog in their conference right now. But whoever wins this one? They’re going to be sitting pretty come Sunday morning. And the journey to get there? That’s going to be one hell of a show.

19 Illinois at 9 Penn State

Game Time: 7:30 PM Eastern/4:30 PM Pacific

TV: NBC

Illinois may not be flashy, but they’re getting it done. Efficient and opportunistic, they’re cashing in when they get in the red zone and winning the turnover battle. Altmyer’s been steady under center, making smart throws and keeping the ball out of harm’s way. But this trip to Happy Valley? That’s going to be their biggest test yet. Penn State just steamrolled Kent State, but let’s be honest, that was a tune-up game. Their offense looks much better under the new OC, and Allar’s been slinging it. But against Illinois, they have to protect the football. If they can do that and get the W, you’ll hear a lot more Playoff talk coming out of State College. This is a good old-fashioned Big Ten slugfest.

Night Game

Arizona at 10 Utah

Game Time: 10:15 PM Eastern/7:15 PM Pacific

TV: ESPN

Utah looks like the top dog in the new Big 12 after that road win against Oklahoma State. And they did it without their star quarterback, Cam Rising.  We’ll see if he’s back this week, but who knows with that hand injury? Luckily for Utah, freshman Isaac Wilson has been holding down the fort with help from Micah Bernard, who’s been tearing it up on the ground.

Arizona, on the other hand, is looking a little lost under new coach Brett Brennan. They got smacked around by Kansas State and had a bye week to figure things out. They need to find their groove fast.  If Fifita and McMillan can get hot, this game might get interesting. But if Utah’s defense keeps rolling, it could be a long night for the Wildcats.

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