Okay, folks, get ready. It’s that time of the week again when we dive headfirst into the chaotic, beautiful mess that is college football. Friday’s episode of the Targeting Winners podcast (available on Spotify, Apple, or wherever you get your podcasts) is coming at you hot, and trust me, you don’t want to miss this. They’ll be talking Xs and Os, dissecting matchups, and uncovering those hidden gems that’ll have you cashing in come Saturday.
Today, I’ll share my weekend bets and prep with you. I’m not just throwing darts at a board. I’m breaking down film, analyzing stats, and getting into the nitty-gritty.
This week, I’ve got three games I’m reviewing: San Diego State at Boise State, Ohio State at Penn State, and Pitt at SMU. We’re talking potential upsets, high-scoring shootouts, and maybe even a bit of old-fashioned smashmouth football. So read my breakdown below, make your picks, and fire up Spotify, Apple, or wherever you get your podcasts on Friday afternoon. Then, get ready to ride the wave with us.
San Diego State at (15) Boise State
The San Diego State Aztecs (3-4) will face the No. 15 Boise State Broncos (6-1) in a Mountain West Conference matchup on Friday, November 1, 2024, at Albertsons Stadium in Boise, Idaho14. The game will kick off at 8:00 p.m. ET and be broadcast on Fox Sports 14.
Betting Odds and Predictions
Boise State is heavily favored in this matchup:
- Spread: Boise State -23.5
- Moneyline: Boise State -2439, San Diego State +1096
- Over/Under: 57.5 points14
The College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter (CFN FPM) has a slightly tighter spread of Boise State -18.54.
Key Factors
Home Field Advantage: Boise State has a strong home field advantage, but San Diego State has won at Albertsons Stadium in the past (2018 and 2012).
Head-to-Head Record: This will be the 10th meeting between the two teams, with Boise State holding a slight 5-4 advantage.
Recent Performance: Boise State has won every game where it has been favored this year, while San Diego State has failed to win as an underdog.
Against the Spread (ATS): San Diego State is 3-2 ATS as an underdog, while Boise State has failed to cover three times as a double-digit favorite.
Weather: The forecast calls for temperatures around 42 degrees with a chance of showers, which could impact game performance.
Outlook by Team
San Diego State:
- New head coach Sean Lewis wants to improve last year’s 4-8 record.
- The Aztecs have an 8.3% winning probability for this game.
- Their season outlook improves after this game, with better winning probabilities against upcoming opponents.
Boise State:
- The Broncos have a 91.7% winning probability for this game.
- They are on track for a potential Group of Five spot in the College Football Playoff, and their remaining games have high winning probabilities.
Analysis
Okay, you’ve got this classic David vs. Goliath scenario brewing in Boise. San Diego State, the scrappy underdog, is rolling into town with a new coach and something to prove. They’re like the Oakland A’s of college football, trying to outsmart the system with grit and a lot of hustle. But then there’s Boise State, the perennial powerhouse, the kings of the blue turf. They’re the New York Yankees, used to winning and expected to dominate.
But here’s the thing: Boise State has this weird quirk. When they’re supposed to win big, they sometimes… don’t. It’s like they get bored or something. And San Diego State? Well, they’ve been defying expectations all season. They’re like that one stock you didn’t think would make a comeback, but suddenly it’s surging. Nobody saw it coming.
You might think this is just another game, but it’s more than that. It’s a clash of cultures, a test of wills. Can San Diego State, with its new coach and underdog mentality, pull off the upset? Or will Boise State crush their dreams with its home-field advantage and history of dominance? It’s a high-stakes game, and the tension is thicker than the Idaho potato soup they serve in the stadium.
Prediction
The air crackles with anticipation. The Broncos, bathed in the eerie glow of the blue turf, exude an aura of invincibility. But beneath the surface, a tremor of doubt. The Aztecs, eyes locked on their prey, carry the quiet confidence of a wolf pack circling its quarry.
This is not a game of mere statistics and spreadsheets. It’s a battle of souls, a collision of destinies. Boise State, the established power, yearns to maintain its grip on the throne. The hungry challenger, San Diego State, fights for recognition and a place at the table.
The final whistle blows. The scoreboard tells a story of Boise State’s dominance: 35-14. But the numbers don’t reveal the whole truth. They don’t show the fierce struggle, the moments of brilliance, the echoes of what could have been. San Diego State, though defeated, leaves the field with heads held high. They have pushed the giants to the brink, proven their mettle, and earned respect that transcends the final score.
Game 2: (3) Ohio State at (7) Penn State
No. 3 Ohio State (7-1) will face No. 7 Penn State (7-0) in a crucial Big Ten matchup on Saturday, November 2, 2024, at Beaver Stadium in University Park, Pennsylvania. The game will kick off at noon ET and be broadcast on Fox.
Betting Odds and Predictions
The betting odds and predictions for this game are notably close:
- Spread: SMU -7.5
- Moneyline: SMU -340, Pittsburgh +270
- Over/Under: 59 points
Interestingly, the College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter (CFN FPM) slightly favors Penn State with a spread of Penn State -1.5.
Key Factors
- Recent History: Ohio State has won the last seven meetings between these teams, indicating a psychological edge.
- Home Field Advantage: Penn State will benefit from playing at Beaver Stadium, which could be a significant factor.
- Against the Spread (ATS): Both teams are 3-4 ATS this season, suggesting neither has a clear advantage in covering the spread.
- Recent Performance: Ohio State has failed to cover in their last two games, including a narrow loss to Oregon.
- Weather: The forecast calls for partly cloudy conditions with mild temperatures, which shouldn’t significantly impact the game.
Outlook by Team
Ohio State:
- The Buckeyes have a 47.5% winning probability for this game.
- A win would keep them in contention for the Big Ten Championship and the College Football Playoff.
- Their remaining schedule looks favorable, with high winning probabilities against most opponents.
Penn State:
- The Nittany Lions have a 52.5% winning probability for this game.
- A win could potentially secure their spot in the College Football Playoff and the Big Ten title game.
- Their remaining schedule appears relatively easy, with high winning probabilities against all opponents.
Analysis
This game is a real barnburner. Ohio State, the big, bad Buckeyes, strolling into Happy Valley like they own the place. They’re the Goldman Sachs of college football, all about tradition and pedigree. But Penn State? They’re the hungry upstarts, the Robinhood traders trying to disrupt the establishment.
Now, on paper, Ohio State should have this in the bag. They’ve got the history, the talent, the whole nine yards. But something’s not quite right. They’ve been stumbling lately, like a thoroughbred with a pulled hamstring. And Penn State? They’re playing with a fire in their belly, a chip on their shoulder. They’re like that meme stock, GameStop, ready to explode.
But here’s the kicker: Penn State has this weird thing about pressure. It’s like they get stage fright when the spotlight’s on. And Ohio State? Well, they’re used to the big stage. They thrive on it. It’s like they’re playing with house money.
This game is not just about X’s and O’s. It’s about psychology, about who wants it more. With their home crowd and underdog mentality, can Penn State pull off the upset? Or will Ohio State silence the doubters with their championship pedigree and ability to perform under pressure? It’s a high-stakes game, folks, and the tension is thicker than a Philly cheesesteak.
Prediction
This is not merely a contest of athletic prowess. It’s a clash of wills, a battle for supremacy. Hungry for victory, Penn State seeks to break the chains of history. Ohio State, the reigning king, fights to preserve its legacy.
The final whistle echoes through the valley. The scoreboard illuminates the night: Penn State 24, Ohio State 21. The upset is complete. The Nittany Lions have roared to victory, their hearts and spirit carrying them through the storm. Ohio State, wounded but not broken, retreats into the night, knowing that the battle for dominance has just begun.
Game 3: Pitt @ SMU
No. 18 Pittsburgh (7-0, 3-0 ACC) will face No. 20 SMU (7-1, 4-0 ACC) in a crucial ACC matchup on Saturday, November 2, 2024, at Gerald J. Ford Stadium in University Park, Texas—the game broadcast on the ACC Network.
Betting Odds and Predictions
The betting odds for this game favor SMU:
- Spread: SMU -7.5
- Moneyline: SMU -340, Pittsburgh +270
- Over/Under: 59 points
Interestingly, the College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter (CFN FPM) sees the game as a “pick’em”.
Key Factors
Historical Record: SMU leads the all-time series 3-2-1, with their last meeting in 2012.
Recent Performance: Pittsburgh is undefeated at 7-0, while SMU has a strong 7-1 record.
Against the Spread (ATS): Pittsburgh has been excellent ATS at 6-1, including 2-0 as an underdog. SMU has failed to cover three times as a favorite this season.
Weather: The forecast calls for rainy conditions, which could impact the game plan for both teams.
Quarterback Play: SMU’s switch to Kevin Jennings at quarterback has recently improved their performance.
Outlook by Team
Pittsburgh:
- The Panthers have a 50.6% winning probability for this game.
- They’ve won many close games this season, suggesting luck and resilience.
- Their defense has been opportunistic, with three pick-sixes in their last game against Syracuse.
SMU:
- The Mustangs have a 49.4% winning probability for this game.
- They’ve shown consistent improvement, especially since changing quarterbacks.
- SMU is coming off a game with six turnovers, which is likely an anomaly.
Analysis
In this matchup, we have two overperforming squads defying preseason predictions, each with a unique storyline. Pittsburgh, sitting undefeated, has won a series of nail-biters, showing grit but perhaps testing the bounds of luck. Conversely, SMU has been on a steady upward trajectory, bolstered by a passionate home crowd that could be a game-changer.
Key Factors to Watch:
Turnover Battle: Both teams have recently emerged from turnover-heavy games that were borderline chaotic. But volatility doesn’t tend to linger; we’re likely to see a reversion to the mean here. This could give an edge to whichever team capitalizes on each opportunity.
SMU’s Dual-Threat QB: Pittsburgh’s defense hasn’t faced a genuine dual-threat quarterback, which will test their ability to handle both the pass and the scramble. SMU’s quarterback, Jennings, brings a dynamic quality that could break open Pittsburgh’s defensive schemes.
Weather Impact: Forecasts call for rain, which often turns passing into a slippery gamble. In such conditions, expect a heavy reliance on the ground game, potentially increasing the chance of turnovers, fumbles, and short-field opportunities.
Prediction
While Pittsburgh has proven itself resilient in close encounters, SMU’s home-field advantage and steadily improving roster could tilt the scales. Jennings and the Mustangs’ offense should be capable of pressuring Pittsburgh’s defense in ways they haven’t yet experienced this season. Given a return to average turnover rates and SMU’s balanced approach, they look positioned to edge out the Panthers.
Score Prediction:
This forecast aligns with the current betting odds, reflecting the likely tightness of the contest. With the potential for rain to stymie offensive flow, the game should settle under the 59-point over/under, as weather conditions push teams to lean more on the ground game and conservative strategies.
