Blog Article

What We Learned: Week 7

Mark Haines on October 19, 2026

Saturday was the day college football’s royalty found out the rest of us get to play, too.

The No. 1, No. 2, No. 5, No. 6, No. 7, No. 13, No. 16 and No. 18 teams in the AP poll all lost, five of the top eight on the same day for the first time since 1989. The national recaps covered every one of them. Almost none of them bothered with Berkeley, where Cal lost 41-7 at home after benching the quarterback its head coach flew to Hawai’i to keep.

Somebody has to cover the dumpster fire, so pull up a chair. We brought marshmallows.

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1. Cal benched the quarterback it flew to Hawai’i to keep and still won’t say who starts Saturday.

Cal held the ball for 12:14 of the first quarter, which sounds terrific until you see what Wake Forest did with its 2:46.

It scored 14 points and gained 163 yards. The Deacons scored touchdowns on their first four possessions, needing all of 22 plays to cover 286 yards, and led 34-0 at the half, Cal’s biggest first-half hole since a 41-3 mess at Oregon in 2013. Wake Forest finished with 509 yards, 349 of them on 15 big plays, which is a lot of big plays against a team whose head coach made his name coaching defense.

Cal won time of possession, and that’s the only thing it won.

The plan was set on Monday

Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele (JKS) was upgraded to probable Friday night and off the injury list by Saturday.

Jackson Brousseau started anyway and said afterward both quarterbacks were told on Monday. Lupoi said Brousseau earned it with 321 yards against Virginia Tech, which made sense right up until Brousseau averaged 4.7 yards per completion in the first half. You can gain 4.7 yards falling forward.

Lupoi had all week to change his mind and five drives to admit he should have.

Did JKS just get Alex Smith’d?

One of Tosh Lupoi’s first moves as head coach was a late-night flight to Hawai’i to talk JKS into staying.

It worked. JKS threw 18 touchdowns and just nine interceptions as a freshman, made the Davey O’Brien watch list, and Ron Rivera went out and raised the money to keep him. This year, against FBS teams, he has five TDs, five picks and a 50.2 QB rating that ranks 84th, so nobody’s calling him perfect.

The Daily Cal compared it to the 2012 San Francisco 49ers, when Alex Smith got hurt, Colin Kaepernick took over, and Smith never got his job back. The difference is Kaepernick kept winning. JKS didn’t get in until 41-0, went 15 of 18, and led Cal’s only touchdown drive, in his first real snaps all season with Pat McCann calling plays.

So, who starts at SMU? Lupoi says he’s “going to assess,” which is coach for “please stop asking me that.”

The fourth-down call he’d make again

Down 7-0, Lupoi went for it on fourth-and-1 from his own 34.

The pass was broken up, and Wake scored 11 seconds later. Before the half, Cal got to the Wake 4 and came away with nothing on fourth down again. Afterward, Lupoi said he loved the first call and got exactly what he wanted.

He got exactly what he wanted, and it was 14-0, Wake Forest. I’d hate to see what he didn’t want.

Three offensive coaches, no answer

The most experienced offensive mind on Cal’s staff isn’t calling plays.

Nick Rolovich is the associate head coach and quarterbacks coach, a former head coach at Hawai’i and Washington State who ran big-time offenses as a coordinator at Hawai’i and Nevada. He developed JKS as a true freshman and went 1-0 as interim head coach last year, knocking off No. 21 SMU. Lupoi kept him, then handed the offense to Jordan Somerville, a 30-year-old whose only previous coordinator job, by his own account, was in 12-U football.

At halftime during the UNLV game, Lupoi took the play sheet away from Somerville and gave it to McCann, a former Fresno State OC, not to the former two-time head coach sitting one chair over. McCann’s Virginia Tech plan worked once. Wake Forest owns a film projector.

Cal keeps changing who’s in charge of the offense, and the offense keeps getting worse.

Who’s running this?

Rivera fired Justin Wilcox last November, hired Lupoi, and supervises him by contract, reporting straight to the chancellor.

In August, Rivera was talking 11 or 12 wins and the playoff. Cal raised a record $88.5 million in donations from July 2025 through June 2026. Two weeks ago, Rivera had to sit in on Lupoi’s weekly press conference to help explain why the offensive coordinator lost his play sheet.

A head coach shouldn’t need his GM at his own press conference explaining how the head coach is running the team. Lupoi did, in Week 5.

What the fans are saying

Cal fans have suffered through a lot, but they still have ears.

Some of the 33,792 booed at halftime, and Lupoi said he didn’t hear it. The most-liked comment under Write for California’s recap told Chancellor Rich Lyons to fire both Rivera and Lupoi. Others dug up Rivera’s run as Washington’s GM and compared this team to Tom Holmoe’s, which in Berkeley counts as fighting words.

Cal fans now want two people fired, and one of them is the guy who does the firing.

The CHS read

Lupoi said afterward his staff got outcoached and didn’t put the players in position to succeed.

Good for him, because that’s also the whole indictment. Seven games in, he’s walked back his OC hire, his starting quarterback, and his own fourth-down math. Rivera hired him and supervises him, so a 3-4 team headed into three straight road games, starting at No. 24 SMU, now sits on both their desks.

Year 1 is supposed to buy patience. Cal is spending it like donor money.

“You know it! (What?) You tell the story! (What?) You tell the whole damn world! This is Bear Territory!”

2. Georgia’s aura has an expiration date.

Auburn 27, No. 1 Georgia 24, on a walk-off field goal in Athens, and no, that’s not a typo.

Gunner Stockton threw two interceptions and lost a fumble, which is a lot of generosity from a No. 1 team at home. Tied 24-24 with 58 seconds left, Auburn drove 40 yards, with a Georgia penalty pitching in, and Alex McPherson hit a 34-yarder to end it. Georgia had won 53 straight against unranked teams, and Auburn became the first unranked team to beat a No. 1 on the road since 2007.

Alex Golesh won’t be paying for his own dinner on the Plains for a while.

3. BYU beat Notre Dame with a quarterback who had a score to settle.

No. 8 BYU 28, No. 2 Notre Dame 24, and it was the best game of the day, unless you’re from South Bend.

This one was personal

When Notre Dame offered Bear Bachmeier in July 2023, he got the news at his grandmother’s house in Lemoore and called it special, because his late grandfather was a die-hard Irish fan.

That September, Notre Dame took a commitment from another quarterback in his class. Bachmeier went to Stanford, then BYU, and on Saturday night he had a hand in all four Cougar touchdowns: two runs, a catch on a double-pass trick play, and the go-ahead throw on third-and-goal from the 6 with 1:47 left.

Afterward, Bachmeier said Notre Dame disrespected him and his family coming out of high school. He wouldn’t say how. He did say BYU is tired of being disrespected. Notre Dame recruiters may want to sit this week out.

And a personal shout-out from us to Walker Lyons, who caught that go-ahead throw. That was a big-time catch on the biggest throw of the night, and we loved seeing it.

The game Notre Dame gave away

The Irish lost defensive lineman Boubacar Traore to targeting on BYU’s first series, and then things got weird.

With nine seconds left before halftime at the BYU 5, CJ Carr tried to spike the ball, never fully held onto it, and replay ruled it a fumble. Marcus Freeman said he’d never seen anything like it at Notre Dame. Neither had anyone else.

Points left at the 5 are the ones you remember when you lose by 4.

Sitake almost gave it back

Kalani Sitake called a fake punt in the second half that went nowhere and handed Notre Dame the ball at the BYU 24.

To his credit, Sitake owned it. His defense bailed him out by holding the Irish to field goals on short fields, and Freeman admitted his team had to score touchdowns there and didn’t.

The coach who made the worst call of the night is the one doing interviews on a stormed field.

The ending nobody will forget

Notre Dame converted a fourth-and-2, then a fourth-and-5 with four seconds left, to reach the BYU 8.

Carr’s last pass was deflected in the end zone, there was contact but no flag, and the fans were on the field before anyone checked the clock. On Sunday, the Big 12 admitted a second should have remained and Notre Dame deserved one more play. Sitake said postgame it didn’t matter because it was fourth down. It was first down.

The conference promises a complete review of its end-of-game process, which Notre Dame fans can frame and hang next to the loss.

Somebody better make Kalani happy

This is the part BYU’s administration should read twice.

Last winter, Penn State came after Sitake, and BYU had to scramble to keep him with a long-term deal and what his wife called a “love bomb” from Cougar fans. By summer, he was publicly pushing for more resources, and when reporters asked about NIL, recruiting budgets and facilities, he said his agent would handle all that. In late August, BYU pulled football out from under athletic director Brian Santiago and had Sitake report straight to a university vice president.

Sitake has options, and Saturday night he added the best line on his résumé.

Somebody in Provo better make him happy, because after beating Notre Dame, the next school that calls won’t take no for an answer.

The CHS read

BYU was a double-digit underdog and won its first game over Notre Dame since 2004.

The Cougars jumped to No. 3 in the Coaches Poll, and the Irish fell to No. 8. Freeman isn’t on anybody’s hot seat, but this one exposed a red-zone problem and some first-half discipline issues, and he said as much himself.

Sitake just made the best case of his career that BYU belongs in the playoff conversation, fake punt and all.

4. Sarkisian’s seat is heating up, and he still won’t give up the headset.

Florida 27, No. 6 Texas 24, in Austin, where the Longhorns are now experts at losing leads.

Texas blew a 14-point lead for Arch Manning’s first home loss as a starter, and Florida collected its second top-10 win of the year. A week earlier, the Longhorns blew a 17-7 halftime lead to Oklahoma and lost on a walk-off field goal. That’s two straight losses to teams Texas was supposed to beat, and now Steve Sarkisian won’t rule out benching Manning.

Everything’s on the table, except the headset

After the Oklahoma loss, Sarkisian was asked whether he’d considered handing off playcalling.

“Not a chance,” he said. He’s been telling people for two seasons that calling plays is why he got hired. So, the quarterback with the most famous last name in football might sit, but the guy calling his plays isn’t going anywhere.

A coach who’ll bench his star before he’ll bench himself is a coach who feels the heat.

5. Alabama isn’t Alabama right now.

No. 14 Tennessee 26, No. 7 Alabama 10, in Knoxville, and the cigars were lit in the other locker room.

The Vols pushed Bama around all afternoon behind DeSean Bishop’s 159 yards and two touchdowns, and Keelon Russell threw two interceptions. It’s Alabama’s first back-to-back regular-season losses in nearly two decades, a week after losing at home to Georgia. The last time it happened, Nick Saban was still unpacking boxes in Tuscaloosa.

Kalen DeBoer’s honeymoon ended a while ago. Two straight losses just made it official.

6. Mike Norvell’s road problem is now a résumé problem.

No. 3 Miami 43, Florida State 35, in double overtime, which is Mike Norvell’s version of a moral victory.

FSU tied it with a 75-yard Duce Robinson touchdown late in regulation, then watched a second-overtime Hail Mary get wiped out by a holding call before Miami ended it with an interception. The Seminoles have now lost 14 straight games away from Tallahassee and are 0-13 since 2017 in true road games against ranked teams.

At some point, “close” stops being a compliment, and Norvell is well past that point.

7. Indiana is mortal, and Ohio State paid for proving it.

No. 5 Ohio State 19, No. 4 Indiana 15, in Bloomington, and the Hoosiers finally remembered what losing feels like.

The Buckeyes snapped the defending champs’ 22-game winning streak, Indiana’s first loss since 2024. They also lost quarterback Julian Sayin along the way, and his health is now the only thing anyone in Columbus wants to talk about.

Ryan Day finally beat the team that’s been beating everybody. It may have cost him his quarterback.

8. Penn State’s freefall has a new chapter.

Michigan beat Penn State in Ann Arbor, in a game billed as a Big Ten showdown that turned out to be two teams trying to stop the bleeding.

Matt Campbell’s Nittany Lions came in 3-3 on a three-game skid, and Kyle Whittingham’s Wolverines were 0-2 in the Big Ten. Whittingham yanked Bryce Underwood after his second first-half interception, and freshman Tommy Carr came off the bench to spark the win. A late Rocco Becht fumble set up Carr’s first career touchdown, and Penn State is now 3-4.

Whittingham found a quarterback. Campbell lost another week he didn’t have to spare.

9. The SEC is officially a coin flip.

Alabama, Georgia and Texas lost on the same day for the first time since 1996, which is around when some of these fan bases last panicked this much.

There are no unbeaten teams left in the SEC. Ole Miss held No. 13 Missouri to three points, LSU shut out Mississippi State, and nobody can tell you with a straight face who the best team in the league is.

Parity is great for TV ratings and terrible for job security.

The bottom line: everybody’s coach can’t be No. 1

Every fan base that got its heart broken Saturday wants its coach at the top of the hot seat list, preferably by Monday.

This week, my inbox had votes for Matt Rhule, Kirby Smart, Tosh Lupoi, Steve Sarkisian, Lane Kiffin, and Kalen DeBoer, all for No. 1. Kirby Smart, people. They can’t all be No. 1, and one loss doesn’t put anybody there. It takes seasons of pressure to get to No. 1, and a few angry emails after one bad Saturday won’t do it.

For the record, it’s also the first week all season nobody texted me that Lincoln Riley needs to be No. 1. Enjoy it, Lincoln.

The new Coaches Hot Seat Rankings land Tuesday. Keep the emails coming; the best ones end up in Behind the Numbers, and the angriest ones end up on my refrigerator.

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Penn State Fired A Coach Who Won 104 Games Because He Couldn’t Beat Elite Teams. Matt Campbell’s Record Says He Might Solve That Problem.

Mark Haines on December 16, 2025

Penn State didn’t hire Matt Campbell.

They settled for him.

After 54 days of chaos (Pat Kraft whiffing on Matt Rhule, Mike Elko, Kalen DeBoer, and watching Kalani Sitake use Happy Valley as leverage for a BYU extension), the Nittany Lions landed on a coach who was never Plan A. The search that began with dreams of “championship-level” coaching ended with a guy whose ceiling is an open question. And yet, this might be exactly what Penn State needs.

Here’s the uncomfortable truth:

Campbell is a better fit than the process suggests.

The Search Was a Disaster. The Outcome Wasn’t.

Let’s be clear about what happened.

Penn State fired James Franklin on October 12 after a 3-3 start, expecting to land a splash hire before the early signing period. Instead, Kraft conducted the longest Power 4 coaching search of the cycle. By National Signing Day, Penn State had signed exactly two recruits, ranking 134th nationally, while Franklin raided their class from Blacksburg. Former players called it “an unmitigated disaster.” Josh Pate said the search “feels lost.” Landon Tengwall called it “about as big a disaster as you could possibly imagine.”

All of that is true.

But none of it changes what Campbell actually brings.

The Franklin Comparison Everyone’s Making (And Getting Wrong)

The lazy take is that Penn State replaced Franklin with Franklin.

Both coaches hover around .600 win percentage. Both struggle against ranked opponents. Both have conference title game appearances but no championships. On paper, it looks like a lateral move. But that framing ignores context, and context is everything.

Here’s what the numbers actually say:

Campbell vs. Top 10 teams at Iowa State: 4-6 (40%)

Franklin vs. Top 10 teams at Penn State: 4-21 (16%)

Campbell won the same number of Top 10 games in 10 years at Iowa State as Franklin won in 11 years at Penn State. The difference? Campbell did it with the 68th-ranked roster in the talent composite. Franklin had top-10 recruiting classes almost every year.

That’s not the same coach.

That’s a coach who maximizes what he has, versus one who underperforms with what he’s given.

What Campbell Does Well

Campbell’s reputation isn’t built on schemes or slogans.

It’s built on development.

Before Campbell arrived in Ames, Iowa State hadn’t had a player drafted since 2014. Since then, he’s produced 15 NFL Draft picks, including Breece Hall, Brock Purdy, David Montgomery, and Will McDonald IV. He took a program that went 8-28 in the three years before he arrived and delivered eight winning seasons in ten years, two Big 12 title game appearances, and the program’s first-ever 11-win season in 2024.

His philosophy is simple: “Love, care, serve our players.”

That sounds soft until you realize his teams are consistently among the most physical in their conference. Campbell’s offensive identity is built on protecting the quarterback, running the ball downhill, and winning in the trenches. His defensive coordinator, Jon Heacock (who’s following him to Penn State), pioneered the 3-3-5 “three-high safety” scheme that’s been copied across college football. Iowa State ranked in the Big 12’s top three in scoring defense seven of the last eight years.

This isn’t a finesse operation.

It’s blue-collar football with a developmental edge.

The Staff Tells You Everything

Within days of being hired, Campbell made his philosophy clear.

He’s not here to manage someone else’s vision.

He let Jim Knowles walk to Tennessee, the highest-paid assistant in college football, fresh off a national title at Ohio State. He’s bringing his own people: Taylor Mouser as offensive coordinator, Jon Heacock on defense, Ryan Clanton on the offensive line, and Deon Broomfield in the secondary. Nine of his first ten hires came from Iowa State.

The only holdover? Terry Smith.

That’s significant. Smith was the interim coach who went 3-3 after Franklin’s firing. Players held up “HIRE TERRY SMITH” signs on the sideline. Keeping him signals continuity with the locker room while installing an entirely new system everywhere else.

Campbell isn’t blending philosophies.

He’s doing a full operating system replacement.

The Real Question: Can He Win the Games That Matter?

This is where skepticism is fair.

Campbell has never sustained a multi-year Top 10 operation. He’s 0-2 in conference championship games, losing to Oklahoma in 2020 and Arizona State in 2024. His teams have a habit of playing up to elite competition, only to fall short at the finish line. The 2020 Big 12 title game saw Iowa State fall behind 17-0 before mounting a comeback that came up short. The 2024 title game against Arizona State wasn’t close.

Sound familiar?

That’s the exact problem that got Franklin fired.

Penn State’s issue was never the floor. Franklin won 104 games in 11 seasons. The issue was the ceiling, specifically, a 4-21 record against Top 10 teams and a 2-21 record against Top 6 teams. The program that once competed for national titles under Joe Paterno has become a consistent “almost” program. Good enough to get ranked. Not good enough to break through.

Campbell’s track record doesn’t definitively answer whether he can fix that.

But the circumstances are different.

The Resource Upgrade Is Massive

Iowa State was a resource knife fight.

Campbell recruited against Oklahoma and Texas with a fraction of their budget, no blue-chip recruiting geography, and a fan base that had never seen sustained success. He turned Jack Trice Stadium into one of the toughest venues in the Big 12, but he was always swimming upstream.

Penn State is a different animal.

The Nittany Lions are committing $30 million in NIL money and $17 million in staff salary pool—among the highest commitments in the country. Campbell’s contract is $70.5 million guaranteed over eight years, with automatic extensions for playoff appearances. Beaver Stadium is undergoing a $700 million renovation. The recruiting geography includes Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Ohio, and the DMV corridor.

Campbell has never had these resources.

The bet is that a coach who went 72-55 at Iowa State, with five eight-win seasons and the program’s only 11-win campaign, can do significantly more when he’s not outgunned on every front.

What Nick Saban Got Right (And Wrong)

Saban weighed in on the hire, calling Campbell “a great coach who’s proven on a consistent basis.”

Then he issued a warning.

“These places that have, to me, a little bit of unrealistic expectations that we’re going to win the national championship… to make that sort of the goal – we gotta win the championship or we’re gonna get rid of the coach – to me is totally wrong. They’ll have a hard time doing it if that’s the approach that they take.”

Saban’s point is valid: championship-or-bust thinking creates instability. Penn State hasn’t won a national title since 1986. They’ve made one playoff appearance ever. Demanding immediate championships from Campbell is unrealistic.

But Saban’s framing also misses something.

Penn State didn’t fire Franklin because he wasn’t winning championships. They fired him because he went 4-21 against Top 10 teams with top-10 recruiting classes. The standard isn’t “win it all.” The standard is “don’t collapse against elite competition every single time.”

That’s a different bar.

And Campbell has a better track record of clearing it.

The Pressure Meter

Current Hot Seat Temperature: COLD

Campbell gets a honeymoon period. Penn State’s 2026 roster is inexperienced after the recruiting disaster, and expectations should be modest for Year 1. The $70.5 million guaranteed contract gives him runway. The administration is invested in patience after the Kraft search debacle embarrassed the university.

What Would Heat Things Up:

  • Losing to teams Penn State shouldn’t lose to (see: Franklin’s Northwestern loss)
  • Failing to establish a recruiting foothold in Pennsylvania
  • Another collapse against Ohio State/Oregon tier opponents in Years 2-3
  • Portal mismanagement or roster instability

What Keeps Him Safe:

  • 9-win floors with competitive losses to elite teams
  • Development of homegrown talent and smart portal additions
  • Playoff appearance by Year 3-4
  • Beating a Top 10 team at least once per season

Campbell isn’t on the hot seat.

But the leash is shorter than his contract suggests, because the last coach proved you can win 104 games and still get fired for not winning the right ones.

The Bottom Line

Matt Campbell is a floor hire, not a ceiling hire.

He stabilizes the program. He installs a coherent identity. He develops players. He builds culture. He doesn’t embarrass the university with off-field chaos. He gives Penn State a high floor of 8-9 wins with an occasional 10-win season.

Is that enough?

It depends on what Penn State actually wants.

If the goal is “be consistently good and occasionally great,” Campbell is an A hire. If the goal is “become Ohio State,” the jury is still out. Campbell has never built a dynasty. He’s never recruited at a top-5 national level. He’s never won a conference championship.

But he’s also never had the resources to try.

Penn State is betting that the coach who overachieved at Iowa State can break through when he’s finally playing with a full deck. It’s a reasonable bet, probably the most sensible option available after the search went sideways.

The question now is simple:

Can Matt Campbell win the games James Franklin couldn’t?

We’re about to find out.

What do you think of the Campbell hire? Send me an email and let me know. mark@coacheshotseat.com

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Week 7 – Coaches Hot Seat Rankings

Mark Haines on October 6, 2025

We’re officially past the halfway point of the 2025 college football season, and the bodies are starting to pile up.

This is when the excuses run out. “We’re young” doesn’t work anymore. “We’re installing a new system” isn’t cutting it. “We just need more time” sounds like desperation. October is when college football separates the pretenders from the contenders—and more importantly, it’s when athletic directors start having quiet conversations with search firms about who might be available in December.

Some coaches entered the season on the hot seat and managed to cool things down. Others have made their situations exponentially worse. And a few—well, a few are coaching for their jobs every single Saturday, whether they want to admit it or not.

Here are the 10 coaches sitting on the hottest seats in college football right now, ranked from “you’re probably gone” to “start packing”:

1. Trent Dilfer, UAB (American)

Here’s the thing about Trent Dilfer: nobody cares that you won a Super Bowl twenty-something years ago when you’re 3-4 and sitting at the bottom of the American Athletic Conference. Dilfer came in talking a big game about “building champions” and “culture,” but UAB looks worse now than it did before he arrived. The Blazers were a scrappy, competitive program under Bill Clark. Now? They’re getting boat-raced by teams they used to beat. When you replace a beloved coach and immediately tank the program, the seat doesn’t just get hot—it becomes a five-alarm fire.

2. Billy Napier, Florida (SEC)

Billy Napier beat Texas, and some want to pretend like that changes everything. It doesn’t. Know what beating Texas gets you at Florida? Another week. Maybe two. One upset doesn’t erase two and a half years of organizational failure. Napier is still 15-18 overall. He’s still the coach who turned one of college football’s blue bloods into a mediocre SEC also-ran. The Gators are still paying him $7+ million to compete for bowl eligibility while Georgia and Alabama compete for national championships. That’s unacceptable. The Texas win was impressive—sure—but Florida fans have seen this movie before. A big win that makes everyone feel good, followed by three inexplicable losses that remind you why the seat was hot in the first place. Napier didn’t save his job. He just delayed the inevitable conversation about when, not if, Florida moves on.

3. Mike Norvell, Florida State (ACC)

Three wins over Florida, Kent State, and an FCS team have created an illusion of recovery. The national media moved on. The hot seat conversations shifted elsewhere. Mike Norvell seems to have escaped scrutiny.

But here’s what nobody’s talking about:

Florida State hasn’t won an ACC game since November 2023. That’s a 15-game conference losing streak spanning two full seasons. The Seminoles are 0-2 in ACC play right now. The streak is alive and getting longer.

Think about that timeline:

  • 2023: 13-1, ACC Champions
  • 2024: 2-10 overall, 1-7 in conference
  • 2025: 3-2 overall, 0-2 in conference

This isn’t a one-year blip. This is a two-year organizational collapse at one of college football’s blue bloods. Norvell went from undefeated to unwatchable in less than 365 days, and the worst part? There’s no evidence that things are getting better. The wins are smoke and mirrors. The losses in conference play are the reality. And if FSU can’t figure out how to win an ACC game soon, Norvell won’t be around to see Year 4.

4. Jeff Choate, Nevada (Mountain West)

Jeff Choate is discovering that what works at Montana State may not necessarily translate to the FBS level. Nevada is 2-5, and worse, they’re not even competitive in games they should win. Choate’s “tough, physical football” approach sounds great in theory, but when you’re getting pushed around by mid-tier Mountain West teams, it’s clear something isn’t working. The Wolf Pack faithful are patient people, but patience runs out when you’re staring down a 3-9 or 4-8 season. Choate needs to show he can adapt—and fast—or he’ll be heading back to the FCS.

5. Joe Moorhead, Akron (MAC)

Joe Moorhead’s track record says he should be better than this. He’s coordinated elite offenses. He won at Fordham. But Mississippi State? Mississippi State fans still haven’t forgiven him for tanking their program. And now at Akron, he’s showing flashes of the same problem: his teams look good on paper but can’t finish. The Zips are 2-6, and here’s the frustrating part—they’re winning the stat sheet in games they lose. Yards? Check. First downs? Check. Time of possession? Check. But stats don’t win games. Scoring touchdowns and field goals wins games. And Akron can’t score when it matters. They move the ball between the 20s and then stall out in the red zone. That’s coaching. That’s execution. That’s on Moorhead. A couple of wins this season is technically an improvement over the dumpster fire Akron has been, but when you’re celebrating 2-6 as progress, your seat is scorching hot.

6. Butch Jones, Arkansas State (Sun Belt)

Butch Jones is proof that just because you failed upward once doesn’t mean you’ll get a second chance. Jones was a disaster at Tennessee, and now he’s a disaster at Arkansas State. The Red Wolves are underperforming in a Sun Belt Conference that’s supposed to be wide open, and Jones’s “championship culture” shtick is no longer resonating. Players aren’t buying in, fans aren’t showing up, and the program feels like it’s treading water. Arkansas State didn’t hire Butch Jones to be mediocre—they hired him because they thought he’d learned from his Tennessee mistakes. Turns out, he didn’t.

7. James Franklin, Penn State (Big Ten)

James Franklin just lost to UCLA. UCLA. A UCLA team so bad that they fired their offensive coordinator mid-season. A UCLA team that handed play-calling duties to Jerry Neuheisel—yes, Rick Neuheisel’s son—who proceeded to carve up Penn State’s defense like he was running the 2001 Miami Hurricanes offense. And Franklin? Franklin made zero adjustments. He stood on the sideline at the Rose Bowl, watching Jerry’s revamped offense shred his team while CBS cameras cut to Rick Neuheisel in the studio, celebrating his son’s victory. This wasn’t just a loss. This was the biggest upset of the season. This was a program-defining embarrassment. Penn State fans are done with “good enough.” They’re done with 10-win seasons that end with inexplicable losses to teams they should beat by 20. Franklin recruits at an elite level. He has NFL talent all over the roster. But when it matters—when his team needs him to make an adjustment, outsmart a first-time play-caller, show up in a big moment—he disappears. That’s why his seat is nuclear hot. Losing to UCLA in 2025 isn’t just bad; it’s unacceptable.

9. Derek Mason, Middle Tennessee (C-USA)

Derek Mason is a defensive coach in an era where offense wins championships, and it shows. Middle Tennessee is 2-6, and while the defense occasionally flashes, the offense is unwatchable. Mason’s problem is that he’s building a program like it’s 2005, not 2025. In today’s college football, you need to score 35+ points to win games, and the Blue Raiders can barely crack 20. Mason’s seat is hot because MTSU fans are asking a fair question: What exactly are we getting better at? If the answer is “nothing,” then it’s time to move on.

10. Scotty Walden, UTEP (C-USA)

Scotty Walden is the new kid on the block, and he’s already in trouble. UTEP hired him because of his success at Austin Peay, but the jump from FCS to FBS is massive—and Walden is drowning. The Miners are 1-7, and it’s not even close. They’re getting blown out on a weekly basis, and there’s no sign of improvement. The issue isn’t just that UTEP is losing—it’s that they look completely unprepared. Walden’s seat is hot because if you can’t show any progress in Year 1, people start wondering if you’re the right guy. And at UTEP, where expectations are low, that’s saying something.

Where does your coach stand? Check out the complete 136 FBS Coaches Hot Seat Rankings.

The Bottom Line:

These 10 coaches are in survival mode. Some will make it to bowl season. Some won’t make it to Thanksgiving. And a few might shock everyone and save their jobs with a November run that makes athletic directors rethink everything.

But here’s the reality: once you’re on a hot seat list, you’re never really off it. You’re just buying time until the next loss reignites the conversation.

Want to know who else we’re watching? Our newsletter subscribers get an exclusive breakdown of 4 under-the-radar coaches who aren’t on this list yet—but probably should be. These are the names nobody’s talking about right now, but will be by season’s end.

Subscribe here to get the full hot seat analysis delivered straight to your inbox every week.

Because in college football, the only thing hotter than the playoff race is the coaching carousel—and we’re tracking every name, every rumor, and every AD who’s about to make a very expensive decision.

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Penn State Football 2025: Why This Is Championship or Bust Season

Mark Haines on June 5, 2025

There has never been more pressure on a Penn State football season than what awaits in 2025.

After a historic 13-win campaign that ended one game short of the national championship, the Nittany Lions return with their best roster in decades, championship expectations, and zero excuses left. Head coach James Franklin faces the ultimate test of his 12-year tenure, while quarterback Drew Allar carries the hopes of a Heisman Trophy and the weight of an entire fan base’s dreams.

This isn’t just another season in Happy Valley. This is the year Penn State either breaks through to college football’s summit or faces uncomfortable questions about whether it can ever get there under Franklin’s leadership.

The foundation has been laid, the pieces are in place, and the moment has arrived.

The 2024 Season Set an Impossible Standard to Match

Penn State’s 2024 campaign rewrote the program’s record books in ways that seemed impossible just years earlier.

The numbers tell the story of a breakthrough season:

  • 13 total wins (most in program history)
  • First College Football Playoff semifinal appearance
  • First top-five ranking since 2005
  • 430.2 yards per game on offense (elite efficiency)
  • 101.9 rushing yards allowed per game (4th nationally)
  • Only 0.9 turnovers per game (incredible discipline)

The playoff run captured the nation’s attention. Penn State demolished SMU 38-10 in the first round at Beaver Stadium, conquered Boise State 31-14 in the Fiesta Bowl, then fell heartbreakingly to Notre Dame 27-24 in the Orange Bowl semifinal.

That near-miss has become the driving force behind 2025’s championship-or-bust mentality.

The Nittany Lions proved they belonged among college football’s elite, but proving it and winning it are two different things. The 2024 season established the ceiling—now they must reach it.

Drew Allar: The Heisman Candidate Carrying Championship Dreams

Drew Allar isn’t just Penn State’s quarterback—he’s the key to everything the program hopes to accomplish.

The senior signal-caller threw for 3,327 yards and 24 touchdowns in 2024 while completing 66.5% of his passes with just eight interceptions. But statistics only tell part of Allar’s story. His growth from promising recruit to legitimate Heisman candidate represents the evolution of Penn State’s championship aspirations.

Current Heisman odds position Allar favorably:

  • MGM lists him at +1400
  • Tied for third-best odds with Clemson’s Cade Klubnik
  • Behind only Texas’s Arch Manning and LSU’s Garrett Nussmeier
  • Only non-quarterback ahead of him is Ohio State’s Jeremiah Smith

The trajectory suggests Allar is poised for a breakout season.

His completion percentage jumped from 59.9% in 2023 to 66.5% in 2024, while yards per attempt rose from 6.8 to 8.4. Recent analysis suggests that if Allar achieves approximately 70.5% completion rate, 3,630 total yards, and 35 total touchdowns, “those numbers would put him squarely in line with or ahead of recent Heisman winners.”

The supporting cast has been upgraded significantly. Syracuse transfer Trebor Pena led the ACC with 84 receptions for 941 yards and nine touchdowns, providing the explosive receiver Penn State lacked. Combined with returning weapons and the nation’s best running back duo in Kaytron Allen and Nicholas Singleton, Allar has everything needed to compete for individual honors.

If Allar reaches his ceiling, Penn State reaches theirs.

Roster Continuity Creates Unprecedented Opportunity

Penn State’s decision to retain 14 starters represents one of the highest totals among power conference teams.

In an era of rampant roster turnover, this continuity provides a massive competitive advantage:

Offensive Continuity:

  • Entire starting offensive line returns (allowed just 1.4 sacks/game)
  • Both Allen and Singleton return after 2,207 combined rushing yards
  • Quarterback stability with Allar’s third year as starter
  • Upgraded receiver corps through strategic transfers

Defensive Foundation:

  • Five starters return despite NFL departures
  • Rising stars like Tony Rojas and Zakee Wheatley step into larger roles
  • Athletic linebackers provide versatility for new schemes
  • Young secondary with significant upside

Strategic Portal Additions:

  • Trebor Pena (WR) – ACC leader in receptions
  • Amare Campbell (LB) – 76 tackles, 6.5 sacks at UNC
  • Enai White (EDGE) – Helps replace Abdul Carter’s production
  • Multiple depth pieces addressing specific needs

The 2025 recruiting class, ranked No. 12 nationally, features immediate contributors led by five-star offensive tackle Malachi Goodman and four-star defensive end Daniel Jennings.

This roster combination of experience, talent, and strategic additions is unprecedented in the Franklin era.

Jim Knowles Brings Championship-Level Defense

The hiring of Jim Knowles as defensive coordinator represents Penn State’s boldest move toward a national championship.

Knowles arrives from Ohio State with a reputation for innovative, high-pressure schemes designed to disrupt elite quarterbacks. His defensive philosophy directly addresses Penn State’s past struggles against top-tier offenses.

What Knowles brings to Happy Valley:

  • Aggressive, complex blitz packages
  • Multiple alignments using “Jack” linebacker concepts
  • Proven ability to develop NFL-caliber defenders
  • Experience winning big games against elite competition

Despite losing five players to the NFL Draft, the defense maintains significant talent. Defensive tackle Zane Durant, cornerback A.J. Harris, and defensive end Dani Dennis-Sutton “could very well be All-Americans in 2025,” while safety Zakee Wheatley returns after a standout 2024 campaign.

The secondary, while young, possesses the athletic ability to thrive under Knowles’ system.

Players like Elliot Washington II, Zion Tracy, and Dejuan Lane are positioned for expanded roles, supported by four-star freshman additions that ensure depth and competition.

Knowles’ arrival signals Penn State’s commitment to winning at the highest level. The $3.1 million investment demonstrates that Athletic Director Pat Kraft’s thinking was clear: “What is the dollar amount that is going to get us closer to a national title?”

The Schedule Presents Championship Opportunities and Challenges

Penn State’s path to a Big Ten championship and College Football Playoff berth is clear but not easy.

The season opens favorably with three non-conference games against Nevada, FIU, and Villanova, followed by a strategic bye week. This schedule enables the development of chemistry and the resolution of early-season issues before Big Ten play commences.

Key Games That Will Define the Season:

September 27 – Oregon at Penn State (White Out) The marquee home game against a top-10 Oregon team in White Out conditions. This early test could define the entire season’s trajectory.

October 18 – at Iowa Road games in Iowa City are notoriously difficult. Penn State must prove it can win tough road games against quality opponents.

November 1 – at Ohio State, the ultimate test. Franklin’s record against the Buckeyes must improve for championship dreams to become a reality.

The Numbers Game: ESPN’s FPI gives Penn State:

  • 63.8% chance to make the College Football Playoff
  • 7.6% chance to win the national championship
  • Projected win total of 10.2 games
  • No. 5 ranking nationally behind Texas, Georgia, Ohio State, and Alabama

Success requires winning the games that matter most.

Franklin’s Job Security Depends on Breaking Through

James Franklin enjoys an 85% fan approval rating, but 2025 represents his ultimate test.

According to CFB insider Josh Pate, Franklin maintains strong fan support despite criticism from vocal minorities. However, the pressure has never been greater for the 12th-year coach.

College football insider Tom Hannifan captured the current sentiment perfectly: “I think the general temperature of the room is Penn State needs to win the National Championship in 2025. It’s boom or bust.”

The criticism stems from Franklin’s record against elite competition:

  • 1-18 mark against AP Top 5 teams
  • Struggles in crucial moments against Ohio State and Michigan
  • Orange Bowl loss to Notre Dame continues pattern of near-misses

Yet dismissing Franklin’s tenure ignores substantial evidence of success. Since the 2016 Pittsburgh loss that sparked initial hot seat speculation, Franklin has compiled a 78-31 record (.716 winning percentage) with multiple conference championship game appearances and the program’s first playoff semifinal berth.

Franklin’s 2021 contract extension runs through 2031 with significant buyout protection, reflecting institutional confidence.

The Jim Knowles hiring represents the program’s commitment to providing Franklin with every resource necessary to break through. Penn State has built a consistent contender—something the program hadn’t achieved since the Joe Paterno era.

With eight consecutive seasons of five or more NFL draft picks and top-15 recruiting classes, the foundation for sustained excellence is undeniable.

Championship or Bust: Why 2025 Is Different

This isn’t just another season with high expectations—it’s the culmination of everything Franklin has built.

The organizational alignment between university leadership, athletic administration, and the football program has never been stronger. Athletic Director Pat Kraft and President Neeli Bendapudi have provided unprecedented resources and support.

What makes 2025 unique:

  • Drew Allar’s final season and Heisman candidacy
  • Elite roster continuity in the transfer portal era
  • Defensive coordinator upgrade with championship experience
  • Strongest recruiting pipeline in program history
  • Complete organizational support and resource allocation

The schedule presents both opportunities and challenges, with early tests serving as measuring sticks for elite aspirations. Success will be measured not just by wins and losses, but by the ability to finally break through in the biggest moments against the most elite competition.

Penn State has never been better positioned for a championship run.

The pieces are in place, the expectations are clear, and the opportunity is unprecedented. In Happy Valley, anything short of a championship-level season will feel like a disappointment, but the ceiling has never been higher for Penn State football.

The question isn’t whether Penn State can compete with college football’s elite—2024 proved that.

The question is whether they can beat them when it matters most. The answer will define both the 2025 season and James Franklin’s legacy in Happy Valley.

The Next Billion Dollar Game

College football isn’t just a sport anymore—it’s a high-stakes market where information asymmetry separates winners from losers. While the average fan sees only what happens between the sidelines, real insiders trade on the hidden dynamics reshaping programs from the inside out.

Our team has embedded with the power brokers who run this game. From the coaching carousel to NIL deals to transfer portal strategies, we’ve mapped the entire ecosystem with the kind of obsessive detail that would make a hedge fund analyst blush.

Why subscribe? Because in markets this inefficient, information creates alpha. Our subscribers knew which coaches were dead men walking months before the mainstream media caught on. They understood which programs were quietly transforming their recruiting apparatuses while competitors slept.

The smart money is already positioning for 2025. Are you?

Click below—it’s free—and join the small group of people who understand the real value of college football’s new economy.

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Notre Dame vs Penn State: A Clash of Titans in the Orange Bowl Semi Final

Mark Haines on January 8, 2025

Thursday, January 9, 2025 | 7:30 p.m. ET

No. 7 Notre Dame vs. No. 6 Penn State

Hard Rock Stadium | Miami Gardens, Florida

In a season where both teams have proven their mettle with identical 13-1 records, Thursday’s College Football Playoff semifinal between Notre Dame and Penn State promises to be a defensive masterclass with championship implications.

The Tale of Two Defenses

Penn State’s defensive unit has been extraordinary this season, holding opponents to a mere 288.8 yards per game. But numbers only tell part of the story.

  • Their rush defense has been particularly suffocating, allowing just 100.9 yards per game on the ground, forcing teams to abandon their running game early.
  • With 39 sacks on the season (2.6 per game), they’ve consistently made quarterbacks uncomfortable in the pocket.
  • The uncertain status of star pass rusher Abdul Carter could impact their defensive prowess, though their depth has been a strength all year.

Notre Dame’s defense matches up impressively, yielding only 295.4 yards per game, with a knack for game-changing plays.

  • Their opportunistic defense has created 31 takeaways this season, including 18 interceptions.
  • Safety Xavier Watts has been a ball hawk, securing six interceptions and creating havoc in the secondary.
  • The loss of cornerback Benjamin Morrison could test their secondary depth against Penn State’s passing attack

Offensive Philosophy: A Study in Contrasts

When Penn State has the ball, expect a balanced attack that keeps defenses guessing.

  • Quarterback Drew Allar has been efficient and explosive, throwing for 3,192 yards with 24 touchdowns and only seven interceptions.
  • Running back Nicholas Singleton has been a force, accumulating 1,015 yards and 14 total touchdowns.
  • Their 436.3 yards per game come from a near-perfect balance of 234.1 passing and 202.2 rushing yards.

Notre Dame’s offense tells a different story, built on a punishing ground game and dual-threat capability.

  • Transfer quarterback Riley Leonard has been a revelation, passing for 2,383 yards and 18 touchdowns while adding 831 rushing yards
  • Running back Jeremiyah Love leads the ground assault with 1,076 yards and 18 total touchdowns.
  • Their 406.6 yards per game lean heavily on the run, averaging 217.5 rushing yards per contest.

The X-Factor: Special Teams and Field Position

Special teams might be the difference-maker in a game that could come down to the finest margins.

  • Notre Dame holds a slight edge in kickoff returns, averaging 23.9 yards compared to Penn State’s 21.2
  • Penn State’s kicking game could be compromised with Sander Sahaydak’s status uncertain
  • Field position battles could prove crucial in what promises to be a defensive struggle

The Prediction

When two evenly matched teams collide, the most minor details often determine the outcome. Penn State’s balanced offensive attack and elite defense give them a slight edge, but Notre Dame’s ability to create turnovers and control the ground game keeps this incredibly close.

Final Score Prediction: Penn State 23, Notre Dame 20

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The Chess Match: Two Coaches, Two Programs, One Bowl Game Collision – SMU at Penn State

Mark Haines on December 20, 2024

Nobody expected SMU’s Rhett Lashlee to pull off what might be college football’s most remarkable transformation story of 2023.

In just three years, Lashlee has engineered what old-guard football minds considered impossible:

  • Transforming a middling SMU program into an 11-2 powerhouse
  • Dominating their inaugural ACC season with swagger and style
  • Accumulating a jaw-dropping 21-3 conference record that has athletic directors nationwide reaching for their checkbooks

The Established Empire Watches

Meanwhile, in Happy Valley, James Franklin continues orchestrating Penn State’s methodical march toward college football supremacy. His Nittany Lions mirror their coach: disciplined, relentless, and utterly predictable in their pursuit of excellence.

A Tale of Two Systems

What makes this bowl matchup fascinating isn’t just the clash of programs – it’s the statistical symmetry that shouldn’t exist:

The offenses move like twins separated at birth: SMU churning out 443.1 yards per game, Penn State barely ahead at 448.6. But defense? That’s where Franklin’s philosophy reveals itself in cold, hard numbers. His unit surrenders just 282.1 yards per game, while SMU’s gives up 326.1.

The X-Factor That Changes Everything

Here’s where the story takes its dramatic turn. SMU lost quarterback Preston Stone, the architectural centerpiece of their offensive explosion. Into this vacuum steps Kevin Jennings, talented but untested, facing a trial by fire against one of college football’s most sophisticated defensive machines.

The Ground Game Chess Match

Football often reveals its true nature in the running game, and here’s where the contrasts sharpen:

  • SMU rides Brashard Smith’s explosive 1,270 yards and 14 touchdowns
  • Penn State counters with a two-headed monster: Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen, combining for over 1,600 yards of controlled destruction.

The Final Act

The smart money sees Penn State emerging victorious, 31-17, not because they’re the better program—but because they’re the more complete program at this precise moment in time. The loss of Stone isn’t just about missing a quarterback; it’s about missing the keystone of an offensive architecture that took three years to perfect.

Ultimately, this game might tell us less about who wins and more about where college football is heading. Lashlee’s SMU represents the bold new challengers, while Franklin’s Penn State embodies the power of systematic, year-over-year excellence. And that’s the real story worth watching.

Game at a Glance

Game: SMU at Penn State

Time: Noon Eastern

TV: TNT

 SMUPenn State
Record11-211-2
Points Per Game38.5434.38
Points Allowed20.8516.38
Total Offense443.1 ypg448.6 ypg
Total Defense326.1 ypg282.1 ypg
SRS Rating16.66 (8th)17.20 (6th)
Strength of Schedule2.51 (49th)4.20 (30th)

Key Personnel Changes

SMU Impact Losses:

  • QB Preston Stone (3,471 yards, 27 TDs, 9 INTs)
  • Kevin Jennings steps in (3,050 yards, 22 TDs, 8 INTs)
  • CB Jahari Rogers
  • DL Omari Abor

Penn State Impact Losses:

  • QB Beau Pribula (275 yards, 5 TDs, 242 rushing yards)
  • Drew Allar remains the starter (2,894 yards, 21 TDs, 7 INTs)

Key Matchups

Quarterback Battle:
Kevin Jennings must lead SMU’s offense against Penn State’s elite defense that allows only 16.38 points per game

Ground Game:

  • SMU: Brashard Smith (1,270 yards, 5.9 avg, 14 TDs)
  • Penn State: Nicholas Singleton (838 yards, 6.4 avg, 7 TDs) and Kaytron Allen (822 yards, 4.8 avg, 6 TDs)

Defensive Edge:
Penn State’s defense allows only 103.6 rushing yards per game and has accumulated 33 sacks.

Final Score:

Penn State 31 SMU 17

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Big Ten Conference Championship Preview: Oregon vs Penn State

Mark Haines on December 5, 2024

We’ve broken down both teams – Oregon vs Penn State for the Big Ten Conference Championship Game. We’re calling this game:

The Perfect Season Meets the Perfect Defense: A Tale of Two Programs

In the high-stakes world of college football, where billions of dollars flow through palatial training facilities and coaches’ contracts read like small-nation GDPs, two programs have found remarkably different paths to the same destination. The Oregon Ducks, with their Silicon Valley-meets-Saturday-afternoon approach to offense, carry the weight of an unblemished 12-0 record. Their opponents, the Penn State Nittany Lions, have turned defensive football into a kind of performance art, yielding yards with all the generosity of a loan shark.

The numbers tell a story that Vegas oddsmakers have been struggling to decode. Oregon’s offense, orchestrated by the Oklahoma transfer Dillon Gabriel (who has thrown for 3,275 yards with the precision of a surgeon), generates 448.5 yards per game – exactly 5.7 yards more than Penn State. In the multi-billion dollar business of college football, that’s the equivalent of finding a penny in your couch cushions.

But here’s where it gets interesting. Let’s break it down:

Team Comparison: Penn State vs Oregon (2024 Season)

Overall Performance

Oregon has had a perfect season so far, boasting a 12-0 record, while Penn State has had an impressive 11-1 record. Both teams have shown strong performances throughout the season, earning their spots in the Big Ten Championship game.

Offensive Comparison

  1. Passing Game:
    • Oregon: 277.6 yards per game, 24 touchdowns, 6 interceptions
    • Penn State: 248.2 yards per game, 24 touchdowns, 6 interceptions

Oregon has a slight edge in passing yards, but both teams have identical touchdown and interception numbers.

  1. Rushing Game:
    • Oregon: 170.9 yards per game, 27 touchdowns
    • Penn State: 194.7 yards per game, 26 touchdowns

Penn State has a more productive rushing attack, averaging about 24 more yards per game than Oregon.

  1. Total Offense:
    • Oregon: 448.5 yards per game
    • Penn State: 442.8 yards per game

Both teams have very similar total offensive production, with Oregon slightly ahead.

Defensive Comparison

  1. Passing Defense:
    • Oregon: 171.5 yards allowed per game, 10 interceptions
    • Penn State: 169.8 yards allowed per game, 12 interceptions

Penn State has a marginally better pass defense and has forced more interceptions.

  1. Rushing Defense:
    • Oregon: 112.3 yards allowed per game
    • Penn State: 97.0 yards allowed per game

Penn State’s rush defense is significantly stronger, allowing about 15 fewer yards per game.

  1. Total Defense:
    • Oregon: 283.8 yards allowed per game
    • Penn State: 266.8 yards allowed per game

Penn State’s overall defense is more effective, allowing 17 fewer total yards per game.

Key Players

Oregon:

  • QB Dillon Gabriel: 3275 passing yards, 24 TDs, 6 INTs
  • RB Jordan James: 1166 rushing yards, 13 TDs
  • WR Tez Johnson: 685 receiving yards, 9 TDs

Penn State:

  • QB Drew Allar: 2668 passing yards, 18 TDs, 5 INTs
  • RB Nicholas Singleton: 733 rushing yards, 7 TDs
  • TE Tyler Warren: 978 receiving yards, 6 TDs

Special Teams

Both teams have solid kicking games, with Oregon slightly more accurate on field goals (78.9% vs 72.2% for Penn State).

Analysis

Penn State’s defensive coordinator has built something akin to a maximum-security prison for opposing offenses. They allow just 97 yards rushing per game – the number that makes old-school Big Ten coaches misty-eyed. It’s as if they’ve solved a mathematical equation that’s puzzled defensive minds for generations: how to stop the run and the pass without sacrificing.

The Nittany Lions’ Drew Allar, with his 2,668 passing yards, isn’t going to win any statistical beauty contests against Gabriel. However, in Tyler Warren, his tight end with 978 receiving yards, he’s found something even more valuable in modern football: reliability. Warren has become to Penn State what a good hedge fund is to a nervous investor – a safe harbor in turbulent times.

Oregon’s Jordan James, meanwhile, has turned running the football into a kind of performance art, accumulating 1,166 yards with the kind of efficiency that would make a German engineer proud. Every time he touches the ball, the advanced analytics computers at Oregon (and there are many) calculate a thousand possible outcomes. Most of them end with James in the end zone.

The kicking game is like comparing two slightly different shades of beige. Oregon converts 78.9% of its field goals, and Penn State 72.2%. Those percentage points might as well be gold dust in a game this evenly matched.

What we have here is more than a football game. It’s a clash of philosophical approaches to the same problem: how to move an oddly shaped ball across 100 yards of artificial turf. Oregon has perfected the art of offensive efficiency, turning each drive into a masterclass in modern football theory. Penn State has instead chosen to perfect the art of denial, turning its defense into a kind of mathematical proof that yards can be subtracted.

The result should be something akin to watching quantum physics play out on a football field – a perfect offense meeting an immovable defense with millions of dollars and countless dreams hanging in the balance.

Ultimately, this game will likely be decided not by the statistical margins that separate these teams – margins so thin you could slide them under a door – but by something far more primitive: which team can impose their will on the other. It’s the kind of story that makes college football the multi-billion-dollar theatre it is.

The Mathematics of Momentum: Game Prediction

If you spend enough time around Las Vegas bookmakers – those modern-day oracles who’ve turned point spreads into a science more precise than meteorology – you’ll learn that football games are just elaborate probability problems dressed up in school colors and fight songs. The Oregon-Penn State matchup presents the mathematical puzzle that keeps professional gamblers up at night.

Let’s break this down the way a Wall Street quant might approach their morning trading strategy:

Oregon’s offense, averaging 35.2 points per game, operates with the statistical consistency that would make a Six Sigma black belt weep with joy. The number feels almost artificially precise like it was generated by the same algorithms that power high-frequency trading.

Penn State’s defense, meanwhile, has turned opposing offenses into case studies in futility, holding teams to yardage totals that look more like batting averages. Their 266.8 yards allowed per game is the number that defensive coordinators frame and hang on their office walls.

But here’s where it gets interesting: Oregon’s Dillon Gabriel has been trading at a premium in the college football talent market. His 3,275 passing yards represent a 22.7% premium over Penn State’s Drew Allar – the kind of spread that would trigger arbitrage opportunities in any other market.

The turnover margins (+0.4 vs +0.6) are so close they’re practically a rounding error in the grand scheme. It’s like comparing the performance of two index funds that track slightly different versions of the same market.

When you feed all these numbers into the kind of predictive models that football analytics departments spend millions developing, you get something that looks less like a definitive answer and more like a probability distribution. But if you push me to put a number on it – the way a hedge fund manager eventually has to decide whether to buy or sell – I’ll say this:

Penn State 31, Oregon 24.

Red Zone – key to the game From B10 & Beyond @B10Beyond on X

“Found the Oregon weakness. Been rummaging through stats last couple of days when I can. Penn State is ranked 20th in Red Zone Defense. Fair. Oregon is ranked 73rd in Red Zone Defense. Not very good. If you can get down there, there’s a REALLY good chance you are scoring.“

It’s the kind of prediction that makes you understand why gambling is a multi-billion-dollar industry. Because in the end, we’re all just trying to put numbers on the unknowable, to quantify the human element that makes sports so captivating in the first place.

Make sure to catch the complete breakdown of all Conference Championship Games on the Targeting Winners podcast dropping Friday Afternoon on Spotify, Apple, or wherever you get your podcasts.

Got any thoughts on this game or preview? Let us know here.

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Coaches Hot Seat is Targeting Winners for Week 10

Mark Haines on October 31, 2024

Okay, folks, get ready. It’s that time of the week again when we dive headfirst into the chaotic, beautiful mess that is college football. Friday’s episode of the Targeting Winners podcast (available on Spotify, Apple, or wherever you get your podcasts) is coming at you hot, and trust me, you don’t want to miss this. They’ll be talking Xs and Os, dissecting matchups, and uncovering those hidden gems that’ll have you cashing in come Saturday.

Today, I’ll share my weekend bets and prep with you.  I’m not just throwing darts at a board. I’m breaking down film, analyzing stats, and getting into the nitty-gritty.

This week, I’ve got three games I’m reviewing: San Diego State at Boise State, Ohio State at Penn State, and Pitt at SMU. We’re talking potential upsets, high-scoring shootouts, and maybe even a bit of old-fashioned smashmouth football. So read my breakdown below, make your picks, and fire up Spotify, Apple, or wherever you get your podcasts on Friday afternoon. Then, get ready to ride the wave with us.

San Diego State at (15) Boise State

The San Diego State Aztecs (3-4) will face the No. 15 Boise State Broncos (6-1) in a Mountain West Conference matchup on Friday, November 1, 2024, at Albertsons Stadium in Boise, Idaho14. The game will kick off at 8:00 p.m. ET and be broadcast on Fox Sports 14.

Betting Odds and Predictions

Boise State is heavily favored in this matchup:

  • Spread: Boise State -23.5
  • Moneyline: Boise State -2439, San Diego State +1096
  • Over/Under: 57.5 points14

The College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter (CFN FPM) has a slightly tighter spread of Boise State -18.54.

Key Factors

Home Field Advantage: Boise State has a strong home field advantage, but San Diego State has won at Albertsons Stadium in the past (2018 and 2012).

Head-to-Head Record: This will be the 10th meeting between the two teams, with Boise State holding a slight 5-4 advantage.

Recent Performance: Boise State has won every game where it has been favored this year, while San Diego State has failed to win as an underdog.

Against the Spread (ATS): San Diego State is 3-2 ATS as an underdog, while Boise State has failed to cover three times as a double-digit favorite.

Weather: The forecast calls for temperatures around 42 degrees with a chance of showers, which could impact game performance.

Outlook by Team

San Diego State:

  • New head coach Sean Lewis wants to improve last year’s 4-8 record.
  • The Aztecs have an 8.3% winning probability for this game.
  • Their season outlook improves after this game, with better winning probabilities against upcoming opponents.

Boise State:

  • The Broncos have a 91.7% winning probability for this game.
  • They are on track for a potential Group of Five spot in the College Football Playoff, and their remaining games have high winning probabilities.

Analysis

Okay, you’ve got this classic David vs. Goliath scenario brewing in Boise. San Diego State, the scrappy underdog, is rolling into town with a new coach and something to prove. They’re like the Oakland A’s of college football, trying to outsmart the system with grit and a lot of hustle. But then there’s Boise State, the perennial powerhouse, the kings of the blue turf. They’re the New York Yankees, used to winning and expected to dominate.

But here’s the thing: Boise State has this weird quirk. When they’re supposed to win big, they sometimes… don’t. It’s like they get bored or something. And San Diego State? Well, they’ve been defying expectations all season. They’re like that one stock you didn’t think would make a comeback, but suddenly it’s surging. Nobody saw it coming.

You might think this is just another game, but it’s more than that. It’s a clash of cultures, a test of wills. Can San Diego State, with its new coach and underdog mentality, pull off the upset? Or will Boise State crush their dreams with its home-field advantage and history of dominance? It’s a high-stakes game, and the tension is thicker than the Idaho potato soup they serve in the stadium.

Prediction

The air crackles with anticipation. The Broncos, bathed in the eerie glow of the blue turf, exude an aura of invincibility. But beneath the surface, a tremor of doubt. The Aztecs, eyes locked on their prey, carry the quiet confidence of a wolf pack circling its quarry.

This is not a game of mere statistics and spreadsheets. It’s a battle of souls, a collision of destinies. Boise State, the established power, yearns to maintain its grip on the throne. The hungry challenger, San Diego State, fights for recognition and a place at the table.

The final whistle blows. The scoreboard tells a story of Boise State’s dominance: 35-14. But the numbers don’t reveal the whole truth. They don’t show the fierce struggle, the moments of brilliance, the echoes of what could have been. San Diego State, though defeated, leaves the field with heads held high. They have pushed the giants to the brink, proven their mettle, and earned respect that transcends the final score.

Game 2: (3) Ohio State at (7) Penn State

No. 3 Ohio State (7-1) will face No. 7 Penn State (7-0) in a crucial Big Ten matchup on Saturday, November 2, 2024, at Beaver Stadium in University Park, Pennsylvania. The game will kick off at noon ET and be broadcast on Fox.

Betting Odds and Predictions

The betting odds and predictions for this game are notably close:

  • Spread: SMU -7.5
  • Moneyline: SMU -340, Pittsburgh +270
  • Over/Under: 59 points

Interestingly, the College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter (CFN FPM) slightly favors Penn State with a spread of Penn State -1.5.

Key Factors

  • Recent History: Ohio State has won the last seven meetings between these teams, indicating a psychological edge.
  • Home Field Advantage: Penn State will benefit from playing at Beaver Stadium, which could be a significant factor.
  • Against the Spread (ATS): Both teams are 3-4 ATS this season, suggesting neither has a clear advantage in covering the spread.
  • Recent Performance: Ohio State has failed to cover in their last two games, including a narrow loss to Oregon.
  • Weather: The forecast calls for partly cloudy conditions with mild temperatures, which shouldn’t significantly impact the game.

Outlook by Team

Ohio State:

  • The Buckeyes have a 47.5% winning probability for this game.
  • A win would keep them in contention for the Big Ten Championship and the College Football Playoff.
  • Their remaining schedule looks favorable, with high winning probabilities against most opponents.

Penn State:

  • The Nittany Lions have a 52.5% winning probability for this game.
  • A win could potentially secure their spot in the College Football Playoff and the Big Ten title game.
  • Their remaining schedule appears relatively easy, with high winning probabilities against all opponents.

Analysis

This game is a real barnburner. Ohio State, the big, bad Buckeyes, strolling into Happy Valley like they own the place. They’re the Goldman Sachs of college football, all about tradition and pedigree. But Penn State? They’re the hungry upstarts, the Robinhood traders trying to disrupt the establishment.

Now, on paper, Ohio State should have this in the bag. They’ve got the history, the talent, the whole nine yards. But something’s not quite right. They’ve been stumbling lately, like a thoroughbred with a pulled hamstring. And Penn State? They’re playing with a fire in their belly, a chip on their shoulder. They’re like that meme stock, GameStop, ready to explode.

But here’s the kicker: Penn State has this weird thing about pressure. It’s like they get stage fright when the spotlight’s on. And Ohio State? Well, they’re used to the big stage. They thrive on it. It’s like they’re playing with house money.

This game is not just about X’s and O’s. It’s about psychology, about who wants it more. With their home crowd and underdog mentality, can Penn State pull off the upset? Or will Ohio State silence the doubters with their championship pedigree and ability to perform under pressure? It’s a high-stakes game, folks, and the tension is thicker than a Philly cheesesteak.

Prediction

This is not merely a contest of athletic prowess. It’s a clash of wills, a battle for supremacy. Hungry for victory, Penn State seeks to break the chains of history. Ohio State, the reigning king, fights to preserve its legacy.

The final whistle echoes through the valley. The scoreboard illuminates the night: Penn State 24, Ohio State 21. The upset is complete. The Nittany Lions have roared to victory, their hearts and spirit carrying them through the storm. Ohio State, wounded but not broken, retreats into the night, knowing that the battle for dominance has just begun.

Game 3: Pitt @ SMU

No. 18 Pittsburgh (7-0, 3-0 ACC) will face No. 20 SMU (7-1, 4-0 ACC) in a crucial ACC matchup on Saturday, November 2, 2024, at Gerald J. Ford Stadium in University Park, Texas—the game broadcast on the ACC Network.

Betting Odds and Predictions

The betting odds for this game favor SMU:

  • Spread: SMU -7.5
  • Moneyline: SMU -340, Pittsburgh +270
  • Over/Under: 59 points

Interestingly, the College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter (CFN FPM) sees the game as a “pick’em”.

Key Factors

Historical Record: SMU leads the all-time series 3-2-1, with their last meeting in 2012.

Recent Performance: Pittsburgh is undefeated at 7-0, while SMU has a strong 7-1 record.

Against the Spread (ATS): Pittsburgh has been excellent ATS at 6-1, including 2-0 as an underdog. SMU has failed to cover three times as a favorite this season.

Weather: The forecast calls for rainy conditions, which could impact the game plan for both teams.

Quarterback Play: SMU’s switch to Kevin Jennings at quarterback has recently improved their performance.

Outlook by Team

Pittsburgh:

  • The Panthers have a 50.6% winning probability for this game.
  • They’ve won many close games this season, suggesting luck and resilience.
  • Their defense has been opportunistic, with three pick-sixes in their last game against Syracuse.

SMU:

  • The Mustangs have a 49.4% winning probability for this game.
  • They’ve shown consistent improvement, especially since changing quarterbacks.
  • SMU is coming off a game with six turnovers, which is likely an anomaly.

Analysis

In this matchup, we have two overperforming squads defying preseason predictions, each with a unique storyline. Pittsburgh, sitting undefeated, has won a series of nail-biters, showing grit but perhaps testing the bounds of luck. Conversely, SMU has been on a steady upward trajectory, bolstered by a passionate home crowd that could be a game-changer.

Key Factors to Watch:

Turnover Battle: Both teams have recently emerged from turnover-heavy games that were borderline chaotic. But volatility doesn’t tend to linger; we’re likely to see a reversion to the mean here. This could give an edge to whichever team capitalizes on each opportunity.

SMU’s Dual-Threat QB: Pittsburgh’s defense hasn’t faced a genuine dual-threat quarterback, which will test their ability to handle both the pass and the scramble. SMU’s quarterback, Jennings, brings a dynamic quality that could break open Pittsburgh’s defensive schemes.

Weather Impact: Forecasts call for rain, which often turns passing into a slippery gamble. In such conditions, expect a heavy reliance on the ground game, potentially increasing the chance of turnovers, fumbles, and short-field opportunities.

Prediction

While Pittsburgh has proven itself resilient in close encounters, SMU’s home-field advantage and steadily improving roster could tilt the scales. Jennings and the Mustangs’ offense should be capable of pressuring Pittsburgh’s defense in ways they haven’t yet experienced this season. Given a return to average turnover rates and SMU’s balanced approach, they look positioned to edge out the Panthers.

Score Prediction:

SMU 31, Pittsburgh 24

This forecast aligns with the current betting odds, reflecting the likely tightness of the contest. With the potential for rain to stymie offensive flow, the game should settle under the 59-point over/under, as weather conditions push teams to lean more on the ground game and conservative strategies.

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Week 9 Featured Games:The Underdogs, the Upsets, and the Unraveling

Mark Haines on October 26, 2024

Step back from the spreadsheets, the power rankings and the expert predictions – Week 9 featured games are about to remind us why we watch this sport in the first place: for the moments that defy logic and rewrite the script.

Early Game

No. 12 Notre Dame vs. No. 24 Navy

Noon Eastern/9:00 AM Pacific

Network: ABC

This isn’t just a football game; it’s a collision of worlds. Notre Dame, the wounded lion, stumbles into the arena, its playoff hopes hanging by a thread. Five starters down, they’re a symphony orchestra missing half its instruments. And Navy? They’re the barbarians at the gate, 6-0 and averaging 45 points a game, led by Blake Horvath, a quarterback who turns the triple option into a weapon of mass destruction. Imagine Barry Sanders with a playbook designed to make defensive coordinators spontaneously combust. The line moved? You bet it did. The smart money knows: Notre Dame’s defense is built for finesse, not this kind of organized chaos. They’re chess players facing a barroom brawl. If Navy pulls off the upset, it’s not just a win; it’s a statement. A declaration that the Midshipmen belong in the playoff conversation, while the Irish are left wondering where it all went wrong.

Afternoon Games

No. 21 Missouri at No. 15 Alabama

Gametime: 3:30 PM Eastern/12:30 PM Pacific

Network: ABC

The eyes of the college football world are on Tuscaloosa. Not just because Alabama has stumbled – two losses in three games is practically an apocalypse in these parts – but because a new era has dawned. The offensive guru, Kalen DeBoer, takes the reins from the legendary Nick Saban. The pressure is immense. Can DeBoer exorcise the ghosts of Alabama’s recent struggles and establish his reign? Or will Eli Drinkwitz and his Missouri Tigers play the role of party crashers, exposing the vulnerabilities of a transition program? This isn’t just a game; it’s a referendum on the future of Alabama football.  

No. 5 Texas at No. 25 Vanderbilt

Game Time: 4:15 PM Eastern/1:15 Pacific

Network: SEC Network

While Alabama grapples with a new identity, Vanderbilt embraces its unexpected transformation. They’ve slain giants, toppling Alabama and sending shockwaves through the SEC. Now, they face another test: the Texas Longhorns, a team still finding its footing after a humbling loss to Georgia. Diego Pavia, the Commodore quarterback, embodies this new Vanderbilt: fearless, confident, and ready to take on anyone. Texas, meanwhile, needs to rediscover its swagger. Can they overcome the chaos in Nashville and avoid becoming another victim of Vandy’s magic? Or will the Commodores continue their Cinderella story, proving their rise is no fluke?

Evening Game

No. 3 Penn State at Wisconsin

Game Time: 7:30 PM Eastern/4:30 PM Pacific

Network: NBC

The whispers are swirling in Happy Valley. “Ohio State, Ohio State, Ohio State.” It’s the biggest game on Penn State’s horizon, a clash of titans that could decide the Big Ten East. But first, there’s the matter of Wisconsin, a team lurking in the shadows, hungry to play spoiler. Fresh off a bruising battle with USC, Penn State can’t afford to look past this one. Camp Randall at night is a cauldron of noise and fury, a place where dreams go to die. But this Penn State team, led by the cool-headed Drew Allar, has the grit and the talent to silence the doubters. Their defense is a fortress, and Allar is growing into a true field general. Can they weather the storm in Madison and escape with their undefeated season intact? Or will Wisconsin, sensing vulnerability, deliver a knockout blow and send shockwaves through the Big Ten?

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Coaches Hot Seat is Targeting Winners for Week 9

Mark Haines on October 24, 2024

Think you know college football? Think again. Coaches Hot Seat spends a little time listening to the Targeting Winners Podcast every Friday afternoon during the season. We take our picks and look for the storylines, the upsets, the wins, and the losses to bring you the inside scoop on where the seats are getting hot. We’re not just talking about picking winners but about understanding the why behind the wins. The hidden narratives, the coaching mismatches, the moments that define a season.

The CFB Dudes at Targeting Winners live and breathe this stuff. They break down film, analyze matchups, and find the edges that the casual fan misses. We compare our picks with the Targeting Winner’s intel, and boom!

So buckle up, because we’re about to take you on a wild ride through three games we’ve got our eye on this week. Fans looking for an edge? You’ve come to the right place.

Notre Dame vs. Navy: The Midshipmen’s Mutiny

Notre Dame limps in, battered and bruised. Five starters down, maybe more. They’re like a prizefighter with a glass jaw, and Navy, they come in with a battering ram. 6-0, averaging 45 points a game. Blake Horvath, their quarterback? He’s not just running the triple option, he’s weaponizing it. Think Barry Sanders with a playbook designed to make defensive coordinators cry.

The line moved? Of course, it did. Smart money knows: Notre Dame’s defense hasn’t seen this kind of chaos. They’re trained for chess matches, not bar fights.

The Play: Navy +12.5. Take it, and don’t look back. This isn’t about talent; it’s about heart. Navy’s got it in spades.

Penn State vs. Wisconsin: The Calm Before the Storm

Penn State is undefeated, but they just survived a brawl with USC. Now they’re staring down Ohio State, the biggest game of their season. It’s a classic trap game. Wisconsin smells blood.

But here’s the thing: Penn State’s defense is a force. Drew Allar, their quarterback? He’s growing up fast. Wisconsin’s offense? Let’s say they haven’t exactly been lighting up the scoreboard.

Camp Randall’s a tough place to play, sure. But Penn State’s been there, done that. They’ve got the experience, the defense, and the quarterback play to weather the storm.

The Play: Penn State -6.5. They’ll win this one ugly, but a win’s a win. And take the Under 47.5. This game’s going to be a slugfest.

Boise State vs. UNLV: The Rebels’ Redemption

Boise State has Ashton Jeanty, a one-man wrecking crew. But here’s their problem: their quarterback, Maddux Madsen, is like a Ferrari with a lawnmower engine. He has lots of flash but not enough horsepower.

UNLV? They’ve got a secret weapon: the “Go-Go Offense.” Hajj-Malik Williams, their quarterback, is slinging the ball like he’s got something to prove. And their offensive line? They’re opening holes you could drive a truck through.

Boise’s defense? They lead the nation in sacks but can’t stop a nosebleed on third-and-short. UNLV’s going to exploit that weakness.

The Play: UNLV +140 on the moneyline. They’re at home, they’re playing with confidence, and they’re about to pull off the upset. Boise State? They’re about to learn a hard lesson: talent only gets you so far.

There you have it. Three games, three takes. This is all about the story. And these stories, they’re just getting started. Post your comments here.

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