Blog Article

WEEK 3 – 2026 COACHES HOT SEAT RANKINGS

Mark Haines on September 15, 2026

Ryan Day led by 20 points in the fourth quarter Saturday night and moved 56 spots up the Coaches Hot Seat Rankings by Sunday morning.

That’s the biggest one-week jump anybody has made this season, and it happened to a man who went into the weekend sitting 115th with a playoff bracket on his mind. Texas took the last 21 points in Austin and won 24-23. Day didn’t coach any worse in the fourth quarter than he had in the first 3. He lost, and this board only speaks one language.

Here’s the read on Week 3.

Of the 86 games played, the ones that moved this board were the ones against opponents capable of winning them. Nearly every coach who cooled off did it by beating somebody with no business on a big-time schedule, and nearly every coach who heated up did it by losing to somebody real. The week graded the calendar more than it graded the coaching.

What moved and why

Ryan Day went from 115th to 59th, and it cost him 1 quarter. Ohio State led 23-3 entering the fourth at Texas and lost 24-23, which knocks down the 2-year win column and the record-against-ranked-teams column inside the same 15 minutes. He’s still 59th, so nobody should confuse this with a hot seat. The point is that 56 spots were sitting there the whole time, waiting on 1 bad quarter.
Brent Venables climbed 18 spots to 17th on a 17-10 loss at Michigan. Oklahoma walked in ranked 11th and walked out ranked 24th, and the column that punished him is the one counting games against the AP Top 25. He wins 73 percent of his games in the 2-year window and 38 percent against ranked teams. That second number is the entire profile, and it didn’t get better in Ann Arbor.
P.J. Fleck moved 11 spots into the top 10 after Mississippi State came to Minneapolis and won 38-13. It’s year 10, the Gophers were outrushed 252 to 13, and Fleck’s Monday answer was penalties and communication. “The penalties absolutely killed us,” he said, and he added that what he loves about this team is their fight. Fight is what you discuss when the rushing number is 13.
Jeff Choate rose 41 spots to 68th because Nevada lost 20-7 at Montana State. Losing to an FCS opponent in September is the cleanest way to heat a seat in this system, and Choate found it on the road in Bozeman.
Joe Moorhead cooled 10 spots, from 9th to 19th, for beating Robert Morris 45-10. Akron hung 45 on a team that has no reason to be on the schedule and it counted as a win, because it was. That’s 10 spots of relief bought at wholesale.
Dabo Swinney fell 7 spots to 13th on a 22-7 win over Georgia Southern. Clemson scored 22 points at home a week after LSU beat them 51-10, and a September date against a Sun Belt team cooled him anyway.

The top of the board

Greg Schiano is the No. 1 hot seat in college football at 0-2, and he earned it the hard way.

Rutgers lost 37-21 at home to a UMass team that hadn’t won a game since October of 2024, as a favorite of nearly 30 points, and Schiano called the performance embarrassing. 8 days later, the Scarlet Knights went to Chestnut Hill and lost 28-21 to a Boston College team that had already been beaten by 19 at Cincinnati. That leaves him with 5 wins in his last 14 games and none in the 2 most winnable dates on his schedule. His composite sits at 96.4.

Mike Norvell is 2nd at 92.4, a gap of 4 points, and the way he got there tells you what kind of week this was.

Norvell didn’t play. Florida State was on a bye, and he still earned a spot because everyone near him got worse. Luke Fickell dropped from 1st to 3rd for beating Western Illinois 36-9. The top of this board rearranged itself over games the top of this board largely sat out.

Schiano has been in it; he’d like everyone to know. Asked about the UMass loss, he reached for Teddy Roosevelt and told the room, “I’ve been in it for 39 years.”

39 years, and 5 wins in the last 14.

Top 25 on the board

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The seat nobody is watching

Tim Albin sits 12th on this board, and I haven’t found his name on a national list all month.

Charlotte opened as a favorite by more than 20 points against The Citadel, an FCS program, and lost 43-41 in triple overtime at home. The 49ers gave up 268 rushing yards and 6 rushing touchdowns to a team that runs the option without apology. A week later, Ole Miss beat them 41-9 in Oxford. Albin’s record at Charlotte is 1-13.

That’s the number, and it’s the reason the board has him ahead of Swinney, ahead of Beamer, ahead of Venables. The only win came against Monmouth last September.

“My heart hurts for the staff and the fan base,” Albin said after The Citadel.

He won a conference championship at Ohio in 2024. He has won 1 game since he left Athens.

Looking ahead to next week

Saturday hands this board 2 games with a hot seat on both sidelines.

Akron at Minnesota, noon. Moorhead is 19th, and Fleck is 6th, and 1 of them leaves Minneapolis with a September win over an FBS opponent. If it’s Moorhead, the top 5 gets a new resident.
Eastern Michigan at Wisconsin, 12:30. Creighton is 18th, and Fickell is 3rd, and Camp Randall is supposed to make this one boring. A close fourth quarter here lands on the 3rd seat, not the 18th.
USC at Rutgers, 3:30 on CBS. Schiano gets the 12th-ranked Trojans at home with AJ Surace at quarterback, the same Surace who threw 3 touchdowns and 4 interceptions at Boston College. Nothing on this date is built to cool the No. 1 seat.
Florida State at Alabama, 3:30 on ABC. Norvell hasn’t won a road game since November of 2023, a streak that now runs 1,024 days, and the bye did nothing to shorten it. Tuscaloosa either ends that number or makes it the story of his season.
NC State at Vanderbilt, 12:45. Doeren is 5th, Vanderbilt won 10 games last year, and this is the first result of his season that carries real information.
Charlotte at App State, 6:00. Albin needs a win badly enough that a respectable loss won’t buy him anything.

Bottom line

A September win over a team with a losing record is worth exactly what you paid for it.

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Blog Article

Rutgers Football 2025: The Year Everything Changes

Mark Haines on May 23, 2025

Rutgers football is about to face its biggest test since Greg Schiano returned to Piscataway.

After back-to-back 7-6 seasons and consecutive bowl appearances for the first time since 2011-12, the Scarlet Knights have built something real. But 2025 isn’t about maintaining momentum anymore. It’s about proving they belong among the Big Ten elite when the schedule stops being friendly.

The Foundation Is Strong, But Now Comes The Real Test

Most people don’t understand Rutgers’ situation: the program has quietly become one of the most stable rebuilds in college football. While everyone was focused on flashier turnarounds, Schiano methodically constructed something sustainable.

Consider these facts:

Three NFL draft picks in 2025 (most since 2013)
Consecutive winning seasons for the first time in over a decade
Top-30 recruiting class with 10 four-star prospects
Contract extension through 2030, showing institutional commitment

The foundation isn’t just solid. It’s the strongest since the mid-2000s peak that put Rutgers on the national map.

But foundations don’t win games. Players do. The 2025 schedule is about to test every brick Schiano has carefully laid.

Finally: Quarterback Stability (Yes, Really)

For the first time in recent memory, Rutgers enters a season without quarterback uncertainty haunting every conversation.

Athan Kaliakmanis will be the starter for the second consecutive year. This might not sound revolutionary until you consider the program’s recent history at the position: seven years where no QB could complete a full season, followed by Gavin Wimsatt posting the lowest passer rating among Power conference quarterbacks.

The Minnesota transfer threw for 2,698 yards with 18 touchdowns against 12 interceptions in 2024. More importantly, he showed the clutch gene with memorable late-game drives, including that thriller against Illinois.

Schiano emphasized after spring practice that Kaliakmanis “had a full season working under Coach Ciarrocca” and now has the credibility to “be a quarterback/leader that we need him to be.”

Behind him, sophomore AJ Surace impressed in the spring game with 220 yards on 15-of-24 passing. The depth that killed previous seasons finally exists.

The Offensive Line: Four Anchors, One Question Mark

The offensive line returns four battle-tested starters who helped produce 376 points (most in Rutgers’ Big Ten era):

#65 LG Felter
#59 C G. Zilinskas
#69 RG Asamoah
#56 RT Needham

The challenge? Replacing NFL-bound left tackle Hollin Pierce.

Tyler Needham has shifted to left tackle, and Taj White has moved to right tackle during spring practices. The staff continues monitoring the transfer portal for additional depth, but the interior line showed resilience when Felter fell injured in 2024.

This unit has been through fire together. They know how to handle adversity.

The Running Game Revolution

Kyle Monangai is gone, taking his 1,279 rushing yards and 13 touchdowns to the Chicago Bears.

That might be a good thing: Rutgers overused Monangai in 2024, making the offense predictable and wearing down their best weapon. Other backs like Benjamin and Brown showed superior efficiency when given opportunities, but the staff stuck with the “feed the bell cow” mentality.

Andrew Rice of On the Banks expects a complete philosophical shift. FAU transfer CJ Campbell will likely lead a committee approach featuring:

Antoine Raymond (returning sophomore)
Edd Guerrier (showed flashes in spring game)
Terrell Mitchell (true freshman with big-play ability)

A balanced backfield could improve overall production while keeping everyone fresh for Big Ten battles.

Receiver Room Gets Much-Needed Star Power

The departure of top target Dymere Miller created an opportunity for dramatic change.

Enter North Texas transfer DT Sheffield, who posted 822 yards and six touchdowns in 2024. He provides the veteran production and leadership that this young group desperately needed.

But the real excitement comes from emerging young talent:

Vernon Allen III and Jourdin Houston combined for 143 yards in the spring game
Ian Strong returns from injury with renewed focus
KJ Duff continues developing into a reliable option

This position has been Rutgers’ Achilles heel for years. The pieces are finally in place for a breakthrough.

Defense Gets Complete Makeover

October’s four-game losing streak exposed defensive weaknesses that couldn’t be ignored. Allowing 33 points per game during that stretch cost Rutgers any shot at a special season.

Schiano’s response? Blow it up and start over.

New Leadership Structure

Co-defensive coordinators Robb Smith and Zach Sparber will replace departed coordinator Joe Harasymiak. Smith will call plays, bringing extensive experience and a track record of improvement. Sparber, who also coaches linebackers, is considered a rising star in the profession.

Transfer Portal Aggressive Approach

The defensive line received the most dramatic overhaul:

Eric O’Neill (13 sacks at James Madison, fourth-most nationally)
Doug Blue-Eli (run-stuffing tackle from USF)
Darold DeNgohe (interior pressure from James Madison)

Combined with returning veterans Jordan Walker and Keshon Griffin, this unit should generate significantly more disruption.

Secondary Rebuilds From Scratch

Four key contributors departed, but spring practices revealed promising depth:

Sophomores Bo Mascoe and Kaj Sanders emerged as reliable options
Al-Shadee Salaam (converted RB) earned “most improved defensive player”
Four-star freshman Michael Clayton adds immediate talent

Recruiting Renaissance Continues

Schiano’s program building received another massive boost with a consensus top-30 recruiting class.

The numbers tell the story:

10 four-star recruits across multiple positions
Six defensive linemen addressing the biggest need
Four linebackers providing depth and competition
Three defensive backs for the secondary rebuilding

Linebacker Kamar Archie and offensive lineman Ja’Elyne Matthews headline a class that should provide immediate impact and future starting potential.

The geographic footprint reflects Schiano’s “State of Rutgers” philosophy, emphasizing New Jersey, New York, and Pennsylvania while strategically expanding into areas like Texas.

Schedule Reality: Welcome to Hell Week (Every Week)

Every bit of optimism about roster improvements crashes into the brutal reality of the 2025 schedule.

Non-conference games against Ohio, Miami of Ohio, and Norfolk State represent Schiano’s typical approach of building early momentum. He’s unbeaten in non-conference play since returning in 2020, and these three games must continue that streak.

But conference play? That’s where things get terrifying.

The Gauntlet Includes:

Oregon (road)
Ohio State (road)
Penn State (home)
Iowa (home)
Illinois (road)
Washington (road)
Minnesota (road)

Back-to-back road games against Minnesota and Washington will test depth and resilience. Even the “easier” road game at Purdue is uncertain with Purdue under new coaching.

The season opens Thursday, Aug. 28, against Ohio, continuing the trend of Thursday night season openers. Early betting lines have Rutgers as double-digit favorites, suggesting confidence in the non-conference sweep.

Coaching Security Provides Stability

Despite the challenging outlook, Schiano’s position remains completely secure.

His contract extension through 2030 and the program’s clear upward trajectory since 2020 provide stability even if 2025 proves difficult. National analysts note that Schiano has “steadily built the program to respectability in the Big Ten” and receives too little credit for his work.

The NFL pipeline continues strengthening recruiting credibility and program prestige. When recruits see former teammates succeeding at the next level, it validates the development process.

Keys to Survival (And Maybe Success)

Rutgers must approach 2025 with surgical precision in their preparation and execution.

Non-Conference Perfection Required: All three early games represent must-wins. Any slip-up eliminates bowl eligibility hopes before Big Ten play begins.

Identify Winnable Conference Games: Purdue and Maryland offer the most realistic paths to additional victories. Minnesota and Illinois represent upset potential if everything clicks.

Defensive Coordinator Chemistry: The Smith-Sparber tandem must quickly implement systems that maximize transfer talent while developing young players. The emphasis on rotation should prevent the fatigue-related dropoffs that plagued 2024.

Offensive Balance Finally Achieved: Establishing a more balanced attack takes pressure off the running game against stronger Big Ten defenses. Kaliakmanis’s continued development and emerging receiving threats could unlock explosive potential.

The Verdict: Foundation Testing Time

Projections suggest a 4-8 record, but that reflects schedule difficulty rather than program regression.

Bowl eligibility requires overachievement and likely at least one signature upset. However, Schiano’s foundation appears stronger than at any point since the mid-2000s peak.

Here’s what 2025 is really about: proving Rutgers can compete consistently against elite competition. Avoiding blowout losses and remaining competitive in most games demonstrates readiness for sustained success when future schedules prove more favorable.

Success Metrics Beyond Wins and Losses

The coaching staff’s aggressive approach to roster construction through recruiting and transfers shows a commitment to accelerating development rather than accepting mediocrity.

Competitive games against Oregon and Ohio State might prove more valuable than an extra victory against inferior competition. The schedule provides an opportunity to prove belonging among Big Ten elites, even if the record doesn’t immediately reflect that progress.

For Rutgers faithful, this is the year everything changes.

The program has reached its highest sustained level since joining the Big Ten. The next step requires navigating the conference’s toughest opponents with a roster still building toward championship-level depth.

The foundation is strong, but 2025 will test whether it can withstand the full weight of Big Ten expectations.

Get ready for the most important season in Greg Schiano’s second tenure.

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