Blog Article

Two Coaches, Two Seasons: How Cal vs San Diego State Became A Tale of Opposite Trajectories

Mark Haines on September 18, 2025

Cal coach Justin Wilcox started this season at #15 on our Coaches Hot Seat Rankings. This week, he sits at #41.

Cal supporters were calling for his firing. Eight years of mediocrity had worn thin on a fanbase that remembered the Jeff Tedford glory days. The move to the ACC felt like a desperate attempt to save a program—and a coach—that had lost its way.

Three games into the 2025 season, Wilcox isn’t just off the hot seat.

He’s got Cal positioned as a legitimate ACC championship contender.

The Numbers Don’t Lie

Let’s start with what actually matters: results.

2024 Cal: 6-7 record, including a bowl loss. Mediocre on both sides of the ball.

2025 Cal: 3-0 with statement wins, including a road victory at Oregon State and a home domination of Big Ten’s Minnesota.

But here’s where it gets interesting—the statistical transformation is unprecedented.

The Defensive Revolution:

Total Defense: 421.4 yards allowed (2024) → 280.0 yards allowed (2025)
That’s 141+ fewer yards per game—one of the most dramatic single-season improvements in college football
Rush Defense: 109.8 yards allowed → 82.3 yards allowed (-27.5 yards, -25.0%)
Pass Defense: 227.6 yards allowed → 197.7 yards allowed (-29.9 yards, -13.1%)

The Offensive Evolution:

Scoring: 23.2 ppg → 24.3 ppg
Total Offense: 380.1 yards → 387.7 yards
Passing: 258.6 yards → 269.0 yards (+10.4 yards)

This isn’t a marginal improvement. This is a systematic transformation.

The Schedule That Changes Everything

Here’s where Wilcox caught lightning in a bottle: Cal’s ACC scheduling rotation.

Teams Cal AVOIDS in 2025: Clemson, Miami, Florida State, Georgia Tech, NC State, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, Wake Forest.

Teams Cal PLAYS in ACC action:

@ Boston College
vs Duke (ACC home opener)
vs North Carolina (Bill Belichick’s debut season)
@ Virginia Tech
vs Virginia
@ Louisville (their toughest road test)
@ Stanford (Big Game rivalry)
vs SMU (potential title game preview)

Look at that list again.

Cal avoided every single ACC powerhouse except SMU—and they get the Mustangs at home in the regular season finale.

The Hot Seat Parallel That Should Terrify Sean Lewis

While Wilcox has engineered one of the most dramatic coaching turnarounds in recent memory, his Week 4 opponent represents the opposite trajectory.

Sean Lewis at San Diego State:

Started at #41 on our Hot Seat Rankings
Now sitting at #17 and climbing
His “AztecFAST” offense has somehow gotten WORSE in Year 2

The Numbers:

2024 SDSU: 19.5 points per game (terrible)
2025 SDSU: 15.5 points per game (historically bad)
Point Differential: -8.3 (2024) → -3.0 (2025)*

*Only improved because their defense got dramatically better while the offense cratered

The Fan Revolt: Season ticket sales down 33%. The program handed out 4,000 free tickets to get bodies in seats for Cal’s visit. Lewis is exhibiting all the warning signs of a coach about to be fired mid-season.

Saturday’s Matchup: Cal (24.3 ppg, elite defense) vs SDSU (15.5 ppg, historically bad offense)

This should be a statement win that propels Cal toward ACC title contention.

The Path to Charlotte

Here’s the reality that nobody wants to talk about: Cal has a legitimate path to the ACC Championship Game.

The New Format: No divisions. The two teams with the best ACC conference records play for the title.

Cal’s Realistic Projection:

Likely Wins (5 games): Boston College, Duke, Virginia Tech, Virginia, Stanford
Toss-ups (2 games): North Carolina (Belichick’s first year chaos), Louisville (road)
Statement Game (1 game): SMU at home in finale

Path to 7-1 in ACC play: Beat the teams you should beat, split the toss-ups, and upset SMU at home.

Path to 6-2 in ACC play: Same as above, but lose one of the “sure things.”

Either record likely gets Cal to Charlotte.

The Transformation Timeline

January 2025: Cal supporters want Wilcox fired
March 2025: Wilcox at #15 on Hot Seat Rankings
September 2025: Cal 3-0 with the most improved defense in college football
December 2025: Playing for an ACC Championship?

This is what great coaching looks like when everything clicks.

Wilcox didn’t just make cosmetic changes. He fundamentally transformed the identity of his program. The defense that was giving up 421+ yards per game in 2024 is now allowing just 280 yards in 2025—that’s the kind of year-over-year improvement that typically takes multiple recruiting cycles and scheme overhauls.

The Foster Parallel

Remember our piece on DeShaun Foster’s situation at UCLA? The parallels between Foster’s final days and Sean Lewis’s current predicament at San Diego State are striking:

Initial optimism followed by spectacular failure
Gimmicky offensive systems that don’t work
Fan revolts and administrative pressure
Players transferring out

But Wilcox represents the opposite trajectory.

Sometimes a coach on the hot seat doesn’t need to be fired—he needs to be challenged. The move to the ACC, the pressure from fans, the make-or-break moment seemed to unlock something in Wilcox that eight years at Cal hadn’t revealed.

The Bottom Line

Justin Wilcox started 2025 fighting for his job.

He might end it fighting for a conference championship.

The statistical improvements aren’t flukes. The schedule isn’t luck—it’s opportunity. The wins aren’t accidents—they’re the result of systematic program transformation.

Cal’s defense has improved by 141 yards per game. Their offense is more efficient. Their quarterback play is steady. Their coaching is sharp.

Most importantly, they avoid Clemson, Miami, and the ACC’s elite tier while getting most of their challenging games at home.

Prediction: Cal goes 6-2 or 7-1 in ACC play and plays for the conference championship.

Hot Seat Status: Wilcox isn’t just off our rankings—he’s building a program that could compete at the highest level for years to come.

Sometimes, the coach everyone wants fired is exactly the coach who needed the proper support and circumstances to succeed.

Justin Wilcox just found his.

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Blog Article

San Diego State Football 2025: Will the AztecFAST Attack Finally Deliver?

Mark Haines on July 18, 2025

San Diego State Football’s Sean Lewis enters year two with everything on the line.

The 2025 season represents a make-or-break moment for San Diego State football. After a disappointing 3-9 debut campaign, Lewis faces mounting pressure to prove his AztecFAST attack can translate innovative concepts into actual wins. With significant roster turnover at quarterback and a challenging schedule ahead, this season will determine whether the program advances or regresses.

The margin for error has disappeared completely.

The Danny O’Neil Departure Changes Everything

Danny O’Neil’s transfer to Wisconsin in December sent shockwaves through the program.

The first true freshman starting quarterback in San Diego State’s Division I history, O’Neil showed genuine promise despite the team’s struggles. He threw for 2,181 yards, 12 touchdowns, and six interceptions while battling injuries throughout the season. His departure wasn’t about football performance.

“That’s a big thing to me, being able to play in front of family,” O’Neil explained. “I wouldn’t say I was homesick. I just want to be able to have some relatives be able to come see me at games.”

The loss creates massive uncertainty at the position that matters most.

Four Quarterbacks, One Starting Job

Lewis responded aggressively to O’Neil’s departure by completely rebuilding the quarterback room.

The competition features an intriguing mix of experience and potential:

Jayden Denegal (Michigan transfer): 6-foot-5, 235 pounds, spent three seasons backing up J.J. McCarthy
Bert Emanuel Jr. (Central Michigan transfer): 6-foot-3, 235 pounds, son of former NFL player, dynamic runner
Kyle Crum (returning junior): Only familiar face, completed 5 of 17 passes in limited action
JP Mialovski (true freshman): Early enrollee from Long Beach, threw for 4,365 yards in high school

Denegal brings the most traditional quarterback skills to the competition.

“The biggest thing I could say is, in my opinion, he has one of the greatest one-play mindsets out there,” Denegal said of McCarthy. “He doesn’t really care. Last play isn’t going to affect his next play. That part of his game is something that I admire.” Former Michigan coach Jim Harbaugh praised Denegal, saying he “throws the ball extremely well” and is “pretty darn athletic.”

Emanuel Jr. offers a completely different dimension with his rushing ability.

The Houston native has carried 145 times for 844 yards and 12 touchdowns during his Central Michigan career. “Bert’s ability to run… That’s where he is at his strongest. I’m very excited to see us in a situation where we get to some of the quarterback run-game stuff,” said quarterbacks coach Chris Johnson.

The winner will inherit an offense desperate for stability.

Two Defensive Stars Anchor the Foundation

While the offense undergoes massive reconstruction, the defense returns elite-level talent.

Edge rusher Trey White recorded 12.5 sacks and ranked fifth nationally despite playing on a struggling team. Linebacker Tano Letuli led the Aztecs with 70 tackles and brings veteran leadership to a unit that needs dramatic improvement.

Both players stayed committed despite transfer portal opportunities.

“They are loyal to the soil and they are loyal to the work they’ve done and put in,” Lewis said. “They’re committed to that locker room. They’re not interested in winning only when it’s convenient here at San Diego State.”

The secondary also shows promise with cornerback Chris Johnson expected to emerge as one of the Mountain West’s top cover men. Safety tandem Eric Butler and Dalesean Staley brings experience to a unit that recorded just one interception in 2024.

These defensive anchors must carry increased responsibility in 2025.

The Post-Marquez Cooper Offensive Challenge

Losing 1,274-yard rusher Marquez Cooper creates another massive hole in the offensive foundation.

Cooper’s production represented nearly the entire rushing attack in 2024. No other running back exceeded 100 yards or scored a rushing touchdown. The receiving corps returns its top three targets, but none eclipsed 700 yards receiving.

Lewis acknowledged the challenge while expressing confidence in the depth chart.

“Obviously he is a bell cow, in terms of yards and the production that he had,” Lewis said of Cooper. “But Cam Davis and Lucky Sutton did a great job of developing. They’re going to have an opportunity through winter condition and spring ball to cement themselves as the guy.”

The offensive line faces a reconstruction project following the medical retirement of center Brayden Bryant.

Schedule Provides Both Opportunity and Danger

The 2025 schedule features a mix of winnable games and potential disasters.

Early-season matchups could set the tone for the entire campaign:

August 28 vs. Stony Brook: Season opener at Snapdragon Stadium should build confidence
September 6 at Washington State: First real test on the road in Pullman
September 20 vs. California: Chance to make a statement against a former Pac-12 program
September 27 at Northern Illinois: Dangerous road trip to DeKalb

The Mountain West slate includes challenging road games at Nevada, Fresno State, and New Mexico.

Lewis noted his team’s close losses in 2024 as a reason for optimism.

At Mountain West Media Days, he emphasized that “multiple one-possession games. Three games were lost by 9 points total.” Those narrow margins suggest minor improvements could translate to several additional wins.

The schedule could create early momentum or early disaster.

The Navy SEAL Philosophy

Lewis has implemented an unconventional team-building approach involving Navy SEAL training sessions.

The philosophy centers on “hard things done together in a beautiful environment” with sessions conducted at Coronado Beach. Lewis conducted “three different iterations of exercises and again in micro teams and position groups and offense, defense, different challenges” during winter conditioning.

This unique approach reflects Lewis’s belief that mental toughness will separate his program.

Pressure Mounts on Sean Lewis

With a hot seat rating of 0.531, Lewis enters a pivotal second season.

While his position isn’t immediately threatened, another disappointing campaign could change the dynamic quickly. The transfer portal era demands faster results than traditional coaching timelines allowed.

Lewis’s track record at Kent State provides reasons for optimism.

He transformed the Golden Flashes from a perennial bottom-feeder into a MAC contender, posting more seven-win seasons than the program achieved in the previous 30 years combined. His innovative offensive concepts garnered national attention before his stint in Colorado.

But San Diego State fans won’t accept another three-win season.

The Verdict: Everything Depends on the Quarterback

The 2025 season will be defined by whoever wins the quarterback competition.

The defense returns enough talent to compete in the Mountain West if the offense can generate consistent production. The schedule features winnable early games that can help build momentum for conference play.

Lewis faces a simple reality: college football patience has shortened dramatically.

The foundation exists for improvement with defensive stars White and Letuli, an improved offensive line, and depth in the running back room. The receiving corps brings system familiarity despite lacking star power.

Success requires solving the quarterback puzzle and finding the right balance between tempo and efficiency.

If Lewis can generate consistent offensive production, the Aztecs have the defensive talent to compete for a bowl berth. If the quarterback situation remains unsettled, another long season awaits.

The AztecFAST attack gets one more chance to prove its effectiveness.

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