Targeting Winners: College Football’s Day of Reckoning

When History Comes Due: College Football’s Day of Reckoning

On the final Saturday of November 2024, college football will remind us why it remains America’s most compelling social experiment. In four different stadiums, eight teams will engage in a ritual that’s equal parts sporting event and psychological warfare. These aren’t just games—they’re settling accounts, tests of collective will, and exercises in mass delusion, where entire states convince themselves that the impossible is probable.

In South Carolina, two programs that share nothing but geography and mutual contempt will try to prove that statistics are just numbers on a page. In Columbus, Ohio State faces the cruel irony of finally getting a vulnerable Michigan team after three years of losses, only to discover that beating a wounded rival might be the most challenging task. In Los Angeles, USC will attempt to salvage a disappointing season by derailing Notre Dame’s playoff dreams, proving once again that nothing satisfies quite like ruining someone else’s perfect ending. And in Eugene, Oregon stands ready to exorcise three years of frustration against a Washington program that’s fallen from national championship contender to cautionary tale in less time than it takes to earn a college degree.

Each of these games carries its own particular strain of madness. Together, they form a perfect case study in how rational human beings – coaches, players, and millions of fans – can convince themselves that history, statistics, and probability are merely suggestions rather than laws. In short, it’s everything that makes college football the most irrational, and therefore most human, of our sports.

The Numbers That Lie: A Tale of Two Programs – South Carolina at Clemson

In the gathering dusk of late November, two football programs circle each other like prizefighters, each convinced they’ve decoded the other’s fatal flaw. The statistics tell one story: Clemson, the higher-ranked team with the more prolific offense, should win this game. But anyone who’s spent time in South Carolina knows that numbers, like the sweet tea served at every diner from Charleston to Greenville, can be deceptive.

The conventional wisdom says Clemson has the edge. Their quarterback, Cade Klubnik, throws for nearly fifty more yards per game than his counterpart. Their offense generates more total yards, touchdowns, and everything that should matter. We could all go home now if football games were played on spreadsheets.

But here’s where it gets interesting.

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Week 6 – Saturday Showdown – Game Preview and Schedule

Coaches Hot Seat Targets The Winners!

Coaches Hot Seat took a thrilling ride yesterday on the Targeting Winners podcast, and let me tell you, these guys know their stuff. We’re talking about the intersection of coaching pressure, game matchups, and cold, hard cash—the kind of analysis that makes you see the game in a new, exhilarating light.

We dove headfirst into the hottest seats in the nation, dissecting the coaches on the brink, the ones whose every decision could be their last. We talked about the odds, the whispers, the gut feelings that separate the winners from the losers, both on the field and in the sportsbook.

And guess what? We didn’t just analyze; We put our money where our mouths are. We broke down the week’s matchups and gave our picks raw and unfiltered. So, if you want to hear our insights, strategies, and predictions, check out this episode.

Trust me, it’s a wild ride. You’ll learn, you’ll laugh, and you might walk away with a whole new, informed perspective on the game. Click here to listen to the episode: https://open.spotify.com/episode/0Inr4sJteXILIu2Tftryhd?si=m_Hfogt-Qq-2wHsgnDm6XQ

Early Game

9 Missouri at 25 Texas A&M

TV: ABC/ESPN+

Game Time: Noon Eastern/9:00 AM Pacific

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What We’re Watching Saturday

Pre Game / Kickoff Shows

ESPN College Football Gameday from Columbia, South Carolina (LSU at South Carolina)

Fox Big Noon Kickoff from Madison Wisconsin (Alabama at Wisconsin

Early Games

LSU at South Carolina

Time: Noon Eastern, 9:00 am Pacific

Network – ABC

Announcers: Chris Fowler, Kirk Herbstreit, Holly Rowe

Our Pick: South Carolina

Boston College at Missouri

Time: 12:45 pm Eastern, 9:45 am Pacific

Network: SEC Network

Announcers: Taylor Zarzour, Matt Stinchcomb and Alyssa Lang

Our Pick: BC

Afternoon Games

Texas A&M at Florida

Time: 12:30 pm

Network: ABC

Announcers: Joe Tessitore, Jesse Palmer, and Katie George

Our Pick: Florida

Late Games

Colorado at Colorado State

Time: 4:30 pm

Network: CBS

Announcers: Ross Tucker, Rich Waltz, and Tiffany Blackmon

Our Pick: Colorado State

Indiana at UCLA

Time: 4:30 pm

Network: NBC

Announcers: Noah Eagle, Todd Blackledge, Tappen 

Our Pick: Indiana

Full Schedule

All Times Shown are Pacific

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Swamp of Despair Puts Napier in the Top Hot Seat

1. Billy Napier, Florida

Let’s dive into the swampy mess that is the Florida Gators football program under Billy Napier. I’m not one to sugarcoat things, so let’s call it like it is: Napier is knee-deep in the muck, and the hot seat is scorching his backside.

The 41-17 beatdown by Miami? Embarrassing. Napier himself said it. And after two-plus seasons, a dismal 11-15 record ain’t cutting it in Gainesville. The lack of progress is glaring, fans are bailing on games early, and even the legendary Steve Spurrier is publicly questioning Napier’s approach.

Let’s face it, Year 3 is judgment time for any coach, and Napier is failing the test. The Gators look lost, undisciplined, and, frankly, uninspired. The offense is sputtering, the defense is porous, and the special teams are, well, “special” in all the wrong ways.

Napier has a hefty buyout, and Florida’s leadership might be hesitant to pull the trigger. But when the program’s ambassador calls for change and fans threaten to stay home, the pressure is mounting.

Napier’s got a tough road ahead. The schedule doesn’t get any easier, and the vultures are circling. He needs to pull a rabbit out of his hat and fast. Otherwise, his tenure in the Swamp might be coming to an unceremonious end.

Can Napier turn this ship around? It’s possible, but the odds are stacked against him. The Gators need a spark, a jolt of energy, and a whole lot of wins. If Napier can’t deliver, well, it might be time for Florida to start looking for a new captain to navigate these treacherous waters.

The clock is ticking, Billy. The hot seat is burning. It’s time to show us what you’re made of.

2. Shane Beamer, South Carolina

The air in Columbia crackles with nervous energy, a far cry from the jubilant anticipation that typically heralds a new season. South Carolina fans are on edge. The wounds of the 2023 season—a dismal 3-5 in the SEC, a humbling 5-7 overall, and the bitter sting of missing a bowl game—still fester. The echoes of boos raining down on their team in the season opener against Old Dominion haunt their collective memory. Social media, a relentless digital amphitheater, reverberates with their discontent.

Shane Beamer, the man at the helm, feels the weight of their expectations bearing down on him. He occupies the precarious #2 spot on the Coaches Hot Seat List, a stark reminder that the honeymoon phase is over. Two promising seasons to start his tenure bought him goodwill, but last year’s regression has everyone questioning his leadership. The brutal reality of college football is that winning isn’t enough in the SEC; you must consistently compete at the highest level. Right now, South Carolina is falling short.

The pressure is immense. Beamer must orchestrate a dramatic turnaround, and he must do it now. He must prove that 2023 was an anomaly, not a harbinger of decline. He must demonstrate his ability to recruit, develop, and win in the most unforgiving conference in college football. He must guide the Gamecocks back to a bowl game and achieve this feat this year.

The clock is ticking. The fans, the boosters, the administration—all eyes are on him. Every game, every play, every decision will be dissected and analyzed. Beamer’s future at South Carolina hangs precariously in the balance.

Yet, amidst the storm clouds, a glimmer of hope remains. Beamer has tasted victory; he has laid a foundation. Now, he must build upon it. He must prove that he is not simply a capable coach but the visionary leader this program needs to reclaim its former glory. He must silence the doubters and etch his name in South Carolina football lore.

The 2024 season is a crucible. It is a chance for redemption, to defy expectations, and to script a new chapter in the Gamecocks’ storied history. The question hangs heavy in the air: Can Shane Beamer rise to the occasion? Can he navigate the treacherous waters of the SEC and lead his team back to the promised land?

The stage is set. The stakes are high. The spotlight is on. It’s time for Shane Beamer to show the world what he’s made of.

3. Dave Aranda, Baylor

Dave Aranda’s the defensive mastermind who brought Baylor a surprise Big 12 title in 2021. But last year’s offensive struggles were like watching paint dry. With the Big 12 expanding and the competition fiercer, Aranda’s feeling the heat.

He’s not one to panic, though. Aranda’s a thinker, a “Professor,” as they call him, constantly analyzing, always strategizing. This season, he’s taking back the reins of the defense, calling the plays himself, just like he did during LSU’s national championship run. It’s a bold move, a statement that he’s not afraid to get his hands dirty.

On offense, there’s a new sheriff in town: Jake Spavital. He’s bringing an up-tempo scheme and has some new weapons to play with, including transfer QB Dequan Finn and speedy receiver Ashtyn Hawkins. The offensive line has been bolstered with transfers, too, so there’s hope for a more balanced attack.

But let’s be honest. Aranda’s bread and butter is defense. He’s built a reputation for shutting down opponents, and Baylor needs to get back to that. If the defense can regain its swagger and the offense can find some rhythm, the Bears could surprise some folks.

Aranda is a coach who’s always stayed true to himself, even as the college football landscape has shifted dramatically. He’s embraced NIL and the transfer portal but has returned to his roots as a defensive play-caller. It’s a gamble, but it could pay off big time.

The pressure’s on in Waco, but Aranda’s not backing down. He’s got a plan, he’s got the experience, and he’s got the passion. The Bears might be underdogs this year but don’t count them out. Aranda’s got a few tricks up his sleeve, and he’s ready to prove that he’s still one of the best in the business.

4. Sam Pittman, Arkansas

Sam Pittman’s story at Arkansas combines heartwarming nostalgia and high-stakes pressure. He’s like the beloved hometown hero who returned to coach his alma mater, bringing back some of that good ol’ fashioned Razorback pride. But sentimentality only gets you so far in the cutthroat world of SEC football.

Pittman’s 21-17 record is respectable, but it’s not enough to silence the critics in the SEC. Losses to rivals like LSU and Texas A&M sting deep, and the departure of star quarterback KJ Jefferson leaves a gaping hole in the offense. The pressure is on Pittman to prove he can develop a new quarterback and keep the Razorbacks’ momentum rolling, which is a daunting task he’s fully aware of.

In a bold move that raised eyebrows across college football, Pittman brought back Bobby Petrino as offensive coordinator. It’s a high-risk, high-reward gamble that has the entire football community on edge. Petrino’s a brilliant offensive mind, but his past transgressions at Arkansas are still fresh in many people’s minds. Pittman’s betting that Petrino’s expertise can revitalize the offense and propel the Razorbacks to new heights.

The Hogs faithful are hungry for success, and Pittman knows it. He’s not afraid of the hot seat and will make tough decisions to win. As he puts it, “I want to win. I don’t care about all the rest of it.”

Pittman has the support of his athletic director, a talented roster, and a new offensive coordinator with a point to prove. The 2024 season will be a defining one for Pittman and the Razorbacks. It’s a season filled with anticipation and excitement, as it will determine the team’s future. Will they rise to the occasion and make a statement in the SEC? Or will the pressure prove too much, leading to another chapter of disappointment in Fayetteville?

The stage is set, the players are ready, and the drama unfolds. Stay tuned to Coaches Hot Seat as we track Sam Pittman’s high-stakes gamble in the heart of SEC country.

5. Brent Pry, Virginia Tech

Saturday’s loss by Virginia Tech to Vanderbilt wasn’t just a loss; it was a full-blown coaching meltdown, a symphony of errors and indiscipline that has left Virginia Tech reeling and Brent Pry teetering on the edge of oblivion. The Hokies, favored by 13.5 points, were not just beaten; they were embarrassed, outplayed, and outcoached in their own house.

But the final score was merely a symptom of a deeper malaise. The two players sharing the same jersey number on the field wasn’t just a blunder; it was a glaring indictment of a program in disarray, a coaching staff asleep at the wheel. It’s the kind of mistake that makes you question the competence of everyone involved.

Then there’s the childish name-calling, the “poor man’s Trace McSorley” taunt hurled at Vanderbilt’s quarterback. It’s not just disrespectful; it’s a sign of a team that’s lost its way, a group of players who think they’re better than they are. It’s the kind of arrogance that fuels the underdog and comes back to bite you in the ass.

And bite it did. Vanderbilt, motivated and focused, exposed every crack in Virginia Tech’s foundation. They exploited the lack of discipline, the lack of preparation, and the lack of leadership. They made Pry’s Hokies look like a JV squad, a team devoid of identity and purpose.

This isn’t a one-off; it’s a pattern. Pry’s tenure at Virginia Tech has been a slow-motion train wreck, a series of missed opportunities and unfulfilled promises. The same issues keep cropping up: undisciplined players, lackluster preparation, and an inability to maximize the talent on the roster.

The fans are fed up. The alumni are embarrassed. The media is sharpening its knives. Pry’s seat isn’t just hot; it’s melting. He’s lost the locker room, he’s lost the fanbase, and he’s lost the benefit of the doubt.

The Hokies deserve better. They deserve a coach who can instill discipline, inspire confidence, and lead them to greatness. Right now, Brent Pry is the antithesis of that. He’s the captain of a sinking ship, and unless he can plug the leaks and change course, he’ll be remembered not as the savior of Virginia Tech football, but as the one who ran it aground.

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