Blog Article
Cal Hired a First-Time Head Coach With Zero HC Experience, an Elite Recruiting Resume, and a Trail of Controversy. Here’s Why It Might Work.
Cal just made the most important football hire in the program’s modern history.
On December 4, 2025, the Bears named Oregon defensive coordinator Tosh Lupoi as their 35th head football coach. Five-year deal. First-time head coach. A former Cal defensive lineman returning to an alma mater that hasn’t finished a season ranked in the AP poll since 2006.
The hire came less than two weeks after Justin Wilcox was fired following a sloppy 31–10 Big Game loss to Stanford. A loss that punctuated nine seasons of well-meaning mediocrity. Wilcox went 48–55 overall. 26–47 in conference. Zero winning conference records. Ever.
GM Ron Rivera (hired in March 2025 to overhaul the program) looked at that ceiling and decided it was no longer acceptable.
So: is Lupoi the right guy to blow through it?
The Short Answer
This is a high-upside, moderate-risk hire that makes a lot of sense for where Cal is right now.
Lupoi checks nearly every box a program in Cal’s position desperately needs:
- Elite recruiting ability: Arguably the best recruiter on the West Coast
- Deep institutional connection: Cal alum, Bay Area native, Tedford coaching tree
- Championship-level résumé: Saban at Alabama, Lanning at Oregon
- Immediate results: 32-man portal class, star QB retained, NFL alumni rallying
He also comes with legitimate concerns. No head coaching experience at any level. Some character questions from his past. And a mixed track record the one time he ran a defense solo at Alabama.
Let’s break it all down.
What Makes This Hire Promising
Recruiting Is the Calling Card
This is where Lupoi separates from every other candidate Cal could have hired.
He was named Rivals.com National Recruiter of the Year in 2010 while at Cal. He’s landed elite talent everywhere he’s been. And his recruiting footprint includes names that span programs, conferences, and decades:
- At Cal: Keenan Allen, Cameron Jordan, Tyson Alualu (two first-round NFL Draft picks)
- At Washington: Shaq Thompson (first-round pick)
- At Alabama: Najee Harris, Jaylen Waddle, Trevon Diggs
- At Oregon: Helped assemble rosters that reached back-to-back College Football Playoffs
For a Cal program that struggled to attract top talent even in the Pac-12, and now must compete for resources in the ACC, this skill set is arguably more important than any X’s-and-O’s credential on the market.
And the early returns are already proving the point.
Lupoi assembled a 32-man transfer portal class that ranks 13th nationally according to 247Sports.
First among all ACC teams. He beat out programs like LSU, Indiana, Georgia, and Ole Miss for key commitments. Here are some of the headliners:
- Adam Mohammed (RB, Washington): Top-5 portal running back nationally
- Chase Hendricks (WR, Ohio): Top-100 transfer
- Ian Strong (WR, Rutgers): Top-50 portal player per On3
- Kingston Lopa (S, Oregon): 6’5, 210-pound former four-star who followed Lupoi from Eugene
- Solomon Williams (DE, Texas A&M): Chose Cal over multiple SEC offers
Jared Goff has been publicly boosting Lupoi’s recruiting efforts. Cameron Jordan and DeSean Jackson visited Berkeley. Multiple Cal NFL alumni showed up at Memorial Stadium during Super Bowl week to show their support.
That kind of immediate portal activity from a first-time head coach is rare. That kind of alumni engagement is rarer.
A Résumé Built in Championship Environments
Lupoi didn’t learn his craft at mid-major programs hoping to get noticed.
He learned it from the best coaches in college football. And then proved he belonged in the NFL, too. Here’s the career arc:
- Alabama (2014–2018): Five years under Nick Saban. Rose from analyst to co-DC to sole defensive coordinator. Part of two national championship teams (2015, 2017). Alabama led the nation in scoring defense in 2016 (13.0 ppg) and 2017 (11.9 ppg).
- NFL (2019–2021): Three years coaching defensive line for the Cleveland Browns, Atlanta Falcons, and Jacksonville Jaguars.
- Oregon (2022–2025): Four seasons as Dan Lanning’s defensive coordinator. Top-25 defense in each of his last three seasons. Top-3 nationally in total defense in 2025. Two-time Broyles Award finalist.
He even stayed to coach Oregon through their 2025 College Football Playoff run, flying back and forth between Eugene and Berkeley to recruit for Cal between playoff games.
That’s a coordinator who has proven he can build and sustain elite defenses at the highest levels of the sport.
The Cal Connection Matters More Than Usual
Most coaching hires come with a press conference quote about “love for the program.”
Lupoi doesn’t need the script. He played defensive line at Cal from 2000 to 2005. He attended De La Salle High School in the Bay Area, one of the most storied prep programs in the country. He began his coaching career in Berkeley under Jeff Tedford, becoming the youngest full-time coach in Cal football history at age 26.
He was part of Tedford’s 2004 team that went 10–2 with Aaron Rodgers at quarterback and reached No. 4 in the nation. That’s not a talking point. That’s a lived experience.
Rivera specifically emphasized that any coaching candidate had to genuinely want the Cal job. Multiple former high-profile players advocated publicly (and privately) for Lupoi to get the position. And within 48 hours of being named head coach, Lupoi flew to Hawaii to personally recruit star freshman QB Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele.
He secured his return for 2026.
Sagapolutele Changes the Equation
Retaining Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele was Lupoi’s first major test as head coach.
He passed it immediately. The freshman quarterback became the first player in FBS history to throw for at least 200 yards in each of his first 12 games. He finished with 3,117 yards, 17 touchdowns, and 9 interceptions. And Cal has a pipeline of sending quarterbacks to the NFL as first-round picks. Aaron Rodgers and Jared Goff both walked through Berkeley on their way to the pros.
Having a franchise quarterback already on the roster gives Lupoi a runway that most first-time head coaches never get.
Legitimate Concerns
Zero Head Coaching Experience
This is the elephant in the room.
Lupoi has never been a head coach at any level. Not in college. Not in high school. Not anywhere. He’ll need to manage an entire program. And the jump from coordinator to CEO is enormous:
- Offense and special teams: not just defense
- Staff hiring and retention: Building a full coaching operation from scratch
- NIL strategy and budget allocation: The new lifeblood of college football
- Media obligations, academic compliance, donor relations: The CEO stuff that coordinators never touch
The leap from coordinator to head coach is historically about a coin flip in terms of outcomes. For every Dan Lanning, there’s a Todd Grantham. For every Kirby Smart, there’s a Jeremy Pruitt.
The CEO skills required to run a program are fundamentally different from the position-specific expertise of a coordinator.
Character Questions From the Past
Lupoi’s career history includes a few red flags.
None of them are disqualifying on their own. But taken together, they’re worth acknowledging:
- Fake injury scandal (2010): Suspended one game after admitting he told a player to fake an injury during a game against Oregon to slow Chip Kelly’s no-huddle offense. He was one of the few coaches who actually owned up to a tactic that was widespread at the time.
- Controversial departure (2012): Left Cal for Washington and took several highly ranked recruits with him, including five-star defensive player Shaq Thompson. The move created lasting bad blood among some in the Cal community.
- Recruiting investigation: Investigated for alleged recruiting violations at Washington. He was later acquitted, but the investigation contributed to a period of unemployment before Saban hired him at Alabama.
These incidents are a decade old. But Cal fans remember them.
The 2018 Alabama Question
Here’s the concern that’s harder to dismiss.
Lupoi’s overall time at Alabama was successful. Two national championships. Elite defensive units. A pipeline of first-round draft picks under his position coaching. But the one year he ran the defense solo as the full defensive coordinator (2018) was widely seen as a step back from the elite standards Saban’s program demands.
He moved to the NFL the following year rather than staying on staff. Some reporting suggests he was pushed out.
The counter-argument is Oregon.
His four-year run as Lanning’s DC produced consistently elite defenses and two Broyles Award finalist nominations. Top-3 nationally in total defense in his final season. Top-25 units in each of his last three years. The question is whether his best work requires an elite head coach above him, or whether the Oregon tenure proves he’s matured past the 2018 stumble.
Four years of sustained excellence is a strong rebuttal. But it doesn’t completely erase the question.
Early Program-Building Signals
What Lupoi has done in his first two months tells us a lot about his approach.
- Young, aggressive coaching staff. OC Jordan Somerville (29) came from the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, where he helped develop Baker Mayfield. DC Michael Hutchings (30) came from the Minnesota Vikings. Both are first-time coordinators. Lupoi is betting on upside and energy over experience.
- Oregon pipeline. Four staffers followed Lupoi from Eugene, including analysts who worked with Bo Nix and Dillon Gabriel. He’s transplanting the systems and culture he helped build at Oregon.
- Increased investment. Lupoi secured a commitment from Cal’s administration to raise the coaching salary pool to the upper tier of the ACC. He stated publicly he would not have taken the job otherwise. Cal is fully funded for revenue-sharing with players in 2026.
- Relentless pace. His wife told reporters he hasn’t had 48 consecutive hours off since August. He juggled Oregon’s playoff run and Cal’s portal recruiting simultaneously, flying to Berkeley for portal visits between playoff games.
That’s the energy of someone who understands the urgency of the moment.
Coaches Hot Seat Hire Scorecard
| Factor | Assessment |
| Recruiting Ability | Elite. Rivals National Recruiter of the Year, proven across four programs |
| Schematic Chops | Strong coordinator résumé. Oregon defense ranked top-3 nationally in final season |
| Program Connection | Deep. Cal alum, De La Salle product, Bay Area native, Tedford coaching tree |
| HC Experience | None. First-time head coach at any level |
| Staff Building | Young and aggressive. NFL-level OC and DC, Oregon pipeline staffers |
| Character/Baggage | Some red flags (fake injury scandal, controversial departure, recruiting investigation) |
| Early Roster Moves | Excellent. 32-man portal class ranked 13th nationally; retained star QB |
| Institutional Support | Strong. Rivera GM structure, increased salary pool, fully funded revenue-sharing |
| Ceiling | High. If recruiting translates, Cal can compete for upper-ACC standing |
| Floor | Coordinator who can’t manage the full scope of a head coaching job |
Wilcox vs. Lupoi: Side-by-Side
| Dimension | Justin Wilcox (2017–2025) | Tosh Lupoi (Incoming) |
| Record | 48–55 overall, 26–47 in conference | 0–0 as HC; elite coordinator track |
| Peak Season | 8–5 in 2019; no winning seasons after | Oregon defense: top-3 nationally in 2025 |
| Bowls / Profile | 5 eligible, 4 appearances, 1 win | No HC bowls; profile built as recruiter/DC |
| Recruiting | Solid but not game-changing; lost key players to portal annually | Rivals Recruiter of the Year; 32-man portal class ranked 13th nationally |
| Trajectory | Plateaued at 6 wins; Big Game loss triggered firing | Hired to reset ceiling; ACC era demands higher talent baseline |
| Institutional Fit | Defensive identity; stabilized culture but couldn’t break through | Cal alum; explicitly wanted the job; energy and culture reset |
| Risk Profile | Low variance: clear floor, limited ceiling | High variance: elite upside, unproven as CEO |
The Verdict
Wilcox proved that doing the old Cal job well is no longer enough.
He stabilized the program after the Sonny Dykes era. He restored defensive credibility. He won five of his last seven Big Games. But he never produced a sustained step-change. Nine seasons. Zero winning conference records. And a program that was actively losing its best talent to the portal every single offseason.
The world changed around him. Conference realignment. NIL. The transfer portal. Wilcox couldn’t change with it.
Lupoi is Cal’s bet that an alum with elite recruiting chops can redefine what the job even is.
The Bears are willingly accepting more risk in exchange for a shot at materially raising their talent and relevance level in the ACC. Here’s what the support structure looks like:
- Rivera GM structure: Institutional support a first-time HC rarely gets
- Increased salary pool: Upper-tier ACC resources for coaches
- Fully funded revenue-sharing: Competitive NIL positioning
- Franchise quarterback: Sagapolutele gives the offense a cornerstone
- 32-man portal class: Immediate roster upgrade, ranked 13th nationally
This hire makes sense given Cal’s specific constraints. The Bears aren’t a destination that can poach a proven Power 4 head coach. Lupoi represents the best realistic combination of ceiling and willingness to be in Berkeley.
The biggest risk is the coordinator-to-CEO leap. But the infrastructure around him gives him a better runway than most first-time head coaches ever get.
| COACHES HOT SEAT HIRE GRADE: B+ High-upside, moderate-risk hire with A-potential if the recruiting translates and he manages the transition to CEO-level leadership. |
What to Watch in Year One
Five things that will tell us whether this hire is working.
- Portal class integration: Can 32 new transfers gel with holdovers by September? The roster turnover is massive.
- Offensive identity: Somerville is a first-time OC. What does this offense look like built around Sagapolutele?
- Sagapolutele’s leap: He showed flashes as a freshman but also threw 9 picks and was sacked 29 times. Year two needs to be different.
- Defensive installation: Lupoi is a defensive mind, but he brought a 30-year-old first-time DC. Can the defense be competitive immediately?
- Culture and energy: The vibe around the program has already shifted. Can Lupoi sustain it once September arrives and the games count?
Check back at midseason. We’ll revisit the grade.