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The UNLV Story No One Is Talking About (And Why Dan Mullen’s Gamble Will Either Make History Or Destroy Everything)

Mark Haines on August 13, 2025

Most college football stories are predictable.

Bad team hires a new coach. Coach rebuilds slowly over three years. Maybe they win some games, maybe they don’t. But what’s happening at UNLV right now isn’t that story at all.

This is something completely different.

The Foundation That Was Already Perfect

This wasn’t a broken program that needed fixing.

UNLV just finished an 11-3 season with 495 points scored and only 298 allowed. They made their first Mountain West Championship Game appearance ever and won a bowl game over California. Barry Odom had built the best two-year run in program history.

So what did Dan Mullen do when he got hired?

He tore it apart and started over. The numbers that prove this program was already elite: 416.1 yards per game on offense, 23 forced turnovers on defense, and their first winning streak since 1984. Most coaches would have been thrilled to inherit this foundation.

Mullen decided it wasn’t enough.

The Move That Makes No Sense (Until You Think About It)

Here’s what most coaches would have done with this situation.

Keep the core players who delivered 11 wins. Build around the existing foundation that just reached a championship game. Make small tweaks and ride the momentum Barry Odom created.

Mullen did the exact opposite.

He brought in 20+ Power Four transfers and created competition at every position. He rebuilt both the offensive and defensive systems from scratch. The quarterback room tells the whole story: instead of rolling with returning senior Cameron Friel, he added Anthony Colandrea from Virginia and Alex Orji from Michigan.

Most coaches avoid that kind of chaos.

Why This Strategy Actually Makes Perfect Sense

Here’s what people don’t understand about Dan Mullen.

He’s done this before at Mississippi State and Florida. At Mississippi State, he took a program that had never been ranked No. 1 and put them atop the first College Football Playoff rankings in 2014. His quarterback development track record includes Dak Prescott, Tim Tebow, and Kyle Trask.

This isn’t gambling—it’s pattern recognition.

When Jake Pope (Alabama/Georgia transfer) says, “Guys jelled really fast. I like the culture we have created,” that’s not luck. It’s systematic culture building that Mullen has perfected over 15 years. The same process that turned Mississippi State into a playoff contender is now happening in Las Vegas.

That’s why this actually works.

The 3 Reasons This Could Work

Reason 1: Competition Creates Excellence

Nobody’s position is guaranteed when you bring in 20+ Power Four transfers.

The former Alabama safety has to prove he’s better than the returning starter. The Michigan quarterback has to prove he’s better than the Virginia transfer. This creates immediate urgency where most teams spend months building chemistry.

These players are fighting for their careers from day one.

Reason 2: Mullen’s Cultural Blueprint

Chief Borders followed Mullen from Florida to Las Vegas for a reason.

“Work like a pro and act like one,” Borders explains. “It all starts with laying down that foundation and how we treat each other.” This isn’t about talent acquisition—it’s about culture transformation that Mullen has perfected.

The system matters more than the players.

Reason 3: The Schedule Sets Up Perfectly

UNLV’s 2025 schedule creates the perfect testing ground.

UCLA provides a winnable Power 5 game early. Road games at Boise State and Colorado State are the real championship tests. Sportsbooks set their win total at 8.5 games—the highest in program history.

The betting market believes in this transformation.

The Financial Pressure That Changes Everything

UNLV paid Mullen $17.5 million and can’t afford for this to fail.

Season ticket sales jumped from 4,061 to 5,031 before the season started. Revenue increased from $1.8M to $2.5M, driven solely by hiring excitement. The athletic department is betting everything on immediate success, not gradual improvement.

This isn’t a rebuilding project with patience.

The 2 Ways This Ends

Scenario 1: Complete Success

Mullen’s transfer strategy works, and team chemistry develops quickly.

They beat UCLA in a statement game and split with Boise State on the road. The Mountain West Championship becomes a realistic goal, and College Football Playoff talk begins. UNLV transforms from regional story to national phenomenon.

Everyone calls Mullen a genius.

Scenario 2: Spectacular Failure

Too many new players create chemistry problems and identity confusion.

The offense struggles without Hajj-Malik Williams’ 2,800 combined yards. The defense can’t replace Jackson Woodard’s 135 tackles and leadership. Four or five losses waste all the momentum Barry Odom built.

Mullen’s reputation takes a massive hit.

Why I Think This Works

Dan Mullen has never taken the safe approach in his entire career.

At Mississippi State, he built offenses around mobile quarterbacks when that wasn’t trendy. At Florida, he developed quarterbacks that others couldn’t fix. Now at UNLV, he’s betting that talent plus competition plus culture beats continuity every time.

The early signs point toward success.

Player testimonials about rapid chemistry development are encouraging. The quality of transfer additions from Alabama, Georgia, Virginia, and Michigan is undeniable. His systematic approach to competition and accountability has worked everywhere he’s coached.

But here’s what will determine everything.

How does this team respond when they’re down 10 points at Boise State? How do they handle pressure when ESPN GameDay shows up for UCLA? Can a roster of mostly transfers develop the trust that wins championship games?

Those moments will define this entire experiment.

The Bottom Line

Dan Mullen didn’t come to UNLV to manage a good program.

He came to build a great one through complete transformation. The $17.5 million investment, 20+ Power Four transfers, and cultural overhaul represent the biggest gamble in program history. This is either the blueprint for how mid-major programs compete at the highest level or a cautionary tale about changing too much too fast.

Either way, it’s going to be fascinating to watch.

Want to know which other “under the radar” coaches are about to be on the hot seat?

I track the real hot seats (not just the obvious ones) every Friday in my free newsletter.

Join thousands of readers who get the stories before they become headlines: Coaches Hot Seat Insider.

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The Numbers That Don’t Add Up – Mountain West Championship Preview

Mark Haines on December 4, 2024

Boise State and UNLV meet Friday night for the Mountain West Championship.

In the pristine December air of Las Vegas, two college football programs are about to collide in a way that defies conventional wisdom. One is Boise State, the upstart powerhouse that has been terrorizing the Mountain West Conference for years by systematically destroying opponents. The other is UNLV, a program that was a statistical asterisk just two years ago. It is the kind of team that makes gamblers rich by betting against them.

The transformation of UNLV under Barry Odom is the kind of story that makes sports executives nervous. It suggests that all their complex formulas for success – the million-dollar facilities, the decades of tradition, the elaborate recruiting networks – might matter less than finding the right person with the right idea at the right time. Odom, a defensive specialist with a track record of raising football programs from the dead, has turned UNLV into something that would have been unthinkable 24 months ago: a legitimate threat to Boise State’s dominance.

The numbers tell a story that feels almost too neat to be true. Boise State, led by their own coaching prodigy Spencer Danielson, has been a machine of efficiency: 478.3 yards per game, 40.6 points scored, and a running back named Ashton Jeanty who seems to have been engineered in a laboratory specifically to break tackles (2,288 rushing yards, 28 touchdowns, and the kind of statistics that make NFL scouts reach for their phones). Their quarterback, Maddux Madsen, plays with the kind of careful precision (21 touchdowns, 3 interceptions) that makes offensive coordinators sleep well at night.

But here’s where it gets interesting: UNLV, the traditional underdog, has built something suspiciously similar. Their offense, anchored by the dual-threat quarterback Hajj-Malik Williams, puts up 434 yards and 38.7 points per game. It’s less than Boise State, but not by the margin you’d expect from a program that was recently college football’s equivalent of a penny stock.

Allegiant Stadium, site of the Mountain West Championship game

The real story, though, lies in a number that doesn’t show up in the standard statistics: 22 versus 14. That’s the turnover differential between these teams, with UNLV’s defense showing a predatory instinct for creating chaos that their more established opponents haven’t matched. It’s the kind of number that makes you wonder if there’s something more interesting happening here than just a good football team playing another good football team.

When these teams met earlier this season, Boise State won 29-24, the close score that tells you everything and nothing about what might happen in a rematch. It’s the type of game that Las Vegas oddsmakers hate – when the traditional metrics suggest one outcome, but the intangibles point to another.

The wild card in this is special teams, UNLV’s secret weapon. Their kicker, Caden Chittenden, has been converting field goals at an 80.6% clip, the kind of reliability that wins championships. And then there’s Jai’Den Thomas, who has turned kick returns into a form of performance art, including one touchdown that made highlight reels across the country.

As the sun sets over Las Vegas on December 6th, these two teams will take the field for a game that feels less like a conference championship and more like a referendum on how football programs are built. On one side, you have Boise State, with its decade of dominance and its assembly-line production of victories. On the other side is UNLV, the rapid risers who have turned chaos into a competitive advantage.

The beauty of this matchup lies in its unpredictability. It’s the kind of game that makes you question everything you think you know about college football – about tradition, momentum, and the way success is supposed to look. And maybe that’s exactly what makes it worth watching.

Let’s Break It Down – Season Overview

Boise State has had a remarkable season, losing only to Oregon in a close 37-34 contest early in the year. The Broncos have since reeled off 10 straight victories, including a 29-24 win over UNLV in their regular-season meeting. UNLV, under second-year head coach Barry Odom, has engineered a dramatic turnaround, with their only losses coming against Syracuse and Boise State.

Offensive Firepower

Both teams bring potent offenses to the championship game:

Boise State

Averaging 478.3 yards and 40.6 points per game
Balanced attack with 224.8 passing yards and 253.5 rushing yards per game
QB Maddux Madsen: 2556 passing yards, 21 TDs, 3 INTs
RB Ashton Jeanty: 2288 rushing yards, 28 TDs, 102 receiving yards, 1 receiving TD

UNLV

Averaging 434 yards and 38.7 points per game
Run-heavy offense with 254.1 rushing yards per game
QB Hajj-Malik Williams: 1735 passing yards, 17 TDs, 4 INTs, 768 rushing yards, 9 rushing TDs
RB Jai’Den Thomas: 832 rushing yards, 7 TDs, 85 receiving yards, 1 receiving TD

Defensive Battle

While both teams are known for their offensive prowess, their defenses have also played crucial roles in their success:

Boise State allows 364.8 total yards per game
UNLV gives up 349.3 total yards per game
The Rebels have been more opportunistic, forcing 22 turnovers compared to the Broncos’ 14

Special Teams Edge

UNLV holds a slight advantage in special teams:

Kicker Caden Chittenden: 25/31 FGs (80.6%), 51/52 PATs (98.1%)
Punt returner Jacob De Jesus: 20 returns, 163 yards, 8.2 avg
Kick returner Jai’Den Thomas: 3 returns, 124 yards, 1 TD

Coaching Matchup

This game features an intriguing coaching battle between Boise State’s Spencer Danielson and UNLV’s Barry Odom:

Danielson (2nd year): 14-2 overall record, faith-based approach, emphasizes player development
Odom (2nd year at UNLV): 19-7 record at UNLV, defensive expertise, known for quick program turnarounds

Key Factors

Boise State’s rushing attack vs. UNLV’s run defense
UNLV’s ability to force turnovers against a typically careful Boise State offense
Special teams play, particularly in the return game
Quarterback play under pressure in a high-stakes environment

Prediction – The Math of Inevitability

Suppose you were building a model to predict this game’s outcome. In that case, you’d probably focus on the obvious: Boise State’s superior yardage, their higher scoring average, and their previous victory over UNLV. You’d be doing exactly what most analysts do – and missing the point entirely.

The hidden pattern here lies in the convergence of three numbers that nobody’s talking about: UNLV’s +8 turnover margin advantage, their 80.6% field goal conversion rate, and the 5-point margin of their previous loss to Boise State. When you map these data points against similar conference championship games over the past decade, an interesting pattern emerges – teams with superior turnover margins and reliable kicking games tend to outperform their regular season results in championship settings.

The Las Vegas factor is another variable that spreadsheets can’t capture. UNLV isn’t just playing at home; they’re playing in a city that’s redefined itself more times than any other in America. Vegas’s team should do the same.

The smart money says Boise State by a touchdown. The numbers that don’t make the headlines suggest something else: UNLV 31, Boise State 27.

It’s the kind of prediction that makes traditional analysts uncomfortable – which is precisely why it might be right.

What’s your take on this game? Let us know here

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Coaches Hot Seat is Targeting Winners for Week 9

Mark Haines on October 24, 2024

Think you know college football? Think again. Coaches Hot Seat spends a little time listening to the Targeting Winners Podcast every Friday afternoon during the season. We take our picks and look for the storylines, the upsets, the wins, and the losses to bring you the inside scoop on where the seats are getting hot. We’re not just talking about picking winners but about understanding the why behind the wins. The hidden narratives, the coaching mismatches, the moments that define a season.

The CFB Dudes at Targeting Winners live and breathe this stuff. They break down film, analyze matchups, and find the edges that the casual fan misses. We compare our picks with the Targeting Winner’s intel, and boom!

So buckle up, because we’re about to take you on a wild ride through three games we’ve got our eye on this week. Fans looking for an edge? You’ve come to the right place.

Notre Dame vs. Navy: The Midshipmen’s Mutiny

Notre Dame limps in, battered and bruised. Five starters down, maybe more. They’re like a prizefighter with a glass jaw, and Navy, they come in with a battering ram. 6-0, averaging 45 points a game. Blake Horvath, their quarterback? He’s not just running the triple option, he’s weaponizing it. Think Barry Sanders with a playbook designed to make defensive coordinators cry.

The line moved? Of course, it did. Smart money knows: Notre Dame’s defense hasn’t seen this kind of chaos. They’re trained for chess matches, not bar fights.

The Play: Navy +12.5. Take it, and don’t look back. This isn’t about talent; it’s about heart. Navy’s got it in spades.

Penn State vs. Wisconsin: The Calm Before the Storm

Penn State is undefeated, but they just survived a brawl with USC. Now they’re staring down Ohio State, the biggest game of their season. It’s a classic trap game. Wisconsin smells blood.

But here’s the thing: Penn State’s defense is a force. Drew Allar, their quarterback? He’s growing up fast. Wisconsin’s offense? Let’s say they haven’t exactly been lighting up the scoreboard.

Camp Randall’s a tough place to play, sure. But Penn State’s been there, done that. They’ve got the experience, the defense, and the quarterback play to weather the storm.

The Play: Penn State -6.5. They’ll win this one ugly, but a win’s a win. And take the Under 47.5. This game’s going to be a slugfest.

Boise State vs. UNLV: The Rebels’ Redemption

Boise State has Ashton Jeanty, a one-man wrecking crew. But here’s their problem: their quarterback, Maddux Madsen, is like a Ferrari with a lawnmower engine. He has lots of flash but not enough horsepower.

UNLV? They’ve got a secret weapon: the “Go-Go Offense.” Hajj-Malik Williams, their quarterback, is slinging the ball like he’s got something to prove. And their offensive line? They’re opening holes you could drive a truck through.

Boise’s defense? They lead the nation in sacks but can’t stop a nosebleed on third-and-short. UNLV’s going to exploit that weakness.

The Play: UNLV +140 on the moneyline. They’re at home, they’re playing with confidence, and they’re about to pull off the upset. Boise State? They’re about to learn a hard lesson: talent only gets you so far.

There you have it. Three games, three takes. This is all about the story. And these stories, they’re just getting started. Post your comments here.

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What We’re Watchin’ Saturday – Week 5 Edition

Mark Haines on September 28, 2024

Early Games

Kentucky at 6 Ole Miss

Game Time: Noon Eastern/9:00 AM Pacific

TV: ABC, ESPN+

Ole Miss is on fire; the Rebels are hotter than a two-dollar pistol. They’re lighting it up, leading the FBS in passing yards, total offense, scoring offense, and scoring defense. Dart’s slinging it like a gunslinger, and the Rebels are putting up video game numbers. But, let’s be honest, they’ve been playing a bunch of cupcakes. That changes this Saturday. Kentucky had Georgia on the ropes, and now they’re coming for Ole Miss. Can Kentucky slow down the Rebels’ high-octane offense? Or will Jaxson Dart and his crew keep this train rolling? This SEC showdown is about to get wild.

20 Oklahoma State at 23 Kansas State

Game Time: Noon Eastern/9:00 AM Pacific

TV: ESPN

We’ve got a Big 12 showdown brewing. Oklahoma State and Kansas State had their eyes on the prize, a Big 12 crown, and a shot at the Playoff. But now, one of them will be limping out of this weekend with two conference losses. Oklahoma State stumbled at home against Utah, and K-State got embarrassed by BYU. This isn’t just another game; this one has some serious stakes. Neither team wants to fall behind in this Big 12 title race dogfight. Keep your eyes on the quarterbacks. Bowman got yanked against Utah before leading a comeback that fell short, and Johnson threw up a couple of ducks against BYU. Who’s going to step up and lead their team to victory?

Afternoon Games

15 Louisville @ 16 Notre Dame

Game Time: 3:30 PM Eastern/12:30 PM Pacific

TV: Peacock

Louisville just passed their first real test against Georgia Tech. They got some help from their defense and special teams, and that Alabama transfer, Ja’Corey Brooks, looks like a highlight reel waiting to happen. Shough’s been sharp under center, but let’s be real: they only got two offensive touchdowns against GT. And they haven’t faced a defense like Notre Dame’s yet. This Irish defense is tough, and it is among the top 20 in the country. Louisville’s defense isn’t too shabby either, and Notre Dame’s offense has been sputtering except for that one trip to Purdue. Right now, Louisville looks like the more balanced team. A win on the road puts them in the conversation with the big boys, Miami and Clemson. For Notre Dame, it’s simple: win and stay on the Playoff path; lose, and that dream might be dead. This one is a slugfest.

Fresno State at UNLV

Game Time: 3:30 PM Eastern/12:30 PM Pacific

TV: FS1

Hold onto your hats because we’ve got an actual soap opera brewing in Vegas. Undefeated UNLV is in the spotlight, but not for the reasons they’d like. Their star quarterback, Matthew Sluka, is out, redshirting and hitting the transfer portal. A lot of controversy surrounds NIL deals, conference realignment, and a potential Group of 5 Playoff spot. Now, UNLV has to tune out all the noise and focus on the field. They’ve got a new quarterback, likely that FCS transfer Hajj-Malik Williams, and they’re facing a tough Fresno State team that gave Michigan a run for their money. This isn’t just a football game; it’s a full-blown drama.

Evening Games

2 Georgia at 4 Alabama

Game Time: 7:30 PM Eastern/4:30 PM Pacific

TV: ABC, ESPN+

This is it. The big one. Top-five showdown, SEC on SEC crime, Georgia versus Alabama. We haven’t seen these two Titans clash in the regular season since 2020. Since then, it’s been all neutral-site showdowns: SEC championships, National Championships. In those recent meetings, Bama’s got the edge, but Georgia walked away with the biggest prize, the natty. This time, the stakes are different; the Alabama coach is different, but the talent and the bad blood? That’s all still there. Can Georgia’s defense corral Jalen Milroe? Can DeBoer snag his first signature win as the head honcho in Tuscaloosa? There will be plenty of other big games this season, especially in the SEC. Heck, neither of these teams is even the top dog in their conference right now. But whoever wins this one? They’re going to be sitting pretty come Sunday morning. And the journey to get there? That’s going to be one hell of a show.

19 Illinois at 9 Penn State

Game Time: 7:30 PM Eastern/4:30 PM Pacific

TV: NBC

Illinois may not be flashy, but they’re getting it done. Efficient and opportunistic, they’re cashing in when they get in the red zone and winning the turnover battle. Altmyer’s been steady under center, making smart throws and keeping the ball out of harm’s way. But this trip to Happy Valley? That’s going to be their biggest test yet. Penn State just steamrolled Kent State, but let’s be honest, that was a tune-up game. Their offense looks much better under the new OC, and Allar’s been slinging it. But against Illinois, they have to protect the football. If they can do that and get the W, you’ll hear a lot more Playoff talk coming out of State College. This is a good old-fashioned Big Ten slugfest.

Night Game

Arizona at 10 Utah

Game Time: 10:15 PM Eastern/7:15 PM Pacific

TV: ESPN

Utah looks like the top dog in the new Big 12 after that road win against Oklahoma State. And they did it without their star quarterback, Cam Rising. We’ll see if he’s back this week, but who knows with that hand injury? Luckily for Utah, freshman Isaac Wilson has been holding down the fort with help from Micah Bernard, who’s been tearing it up on the ground.

Arizona, on the other hand, is looking a little lost under new coach Brett Brennan. They got smacked around by Kansas State and had a bye week to figure things out. They need to find their groove fast. If Fifita and McMillan can get hot, this game might get interesting. But if Utah’s defense keeps rolling, it could be a long night for the Wildcats.

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