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Brian Kelly Is Out at LSU—And the Coaching Carousel Just Got Absolutely Insane

Mark Haines on October 27, 2025

The coaching carousel just claimed its biggest name yet.

Brian Kelly is out at LSU. Fired. Done. Less than 24 hours after a humiliating 49-25 home loss to Texas A&M—after running into the locker room while students chanted “Fire Kelly,” after being forced to come back out and sing the alma mater with his players—LSU finally pulled the trigger. But this wasn’t a simple firing. This was a full-blown confrontation that spiraled out of control.

Here’s what happened.

The Dramatic Showdown That Ended It All

Sunday afternoon, according to The Athletic’s Bruce Feldman and Ralph D. Russo.

Brian Kelly and athletic director Scott Woodward meet. Woodward wants staff changes. Specifically, he wants Kelly to fire offensive coordinator Joe Sloan. LSU’s offense ranks dead last in the SEC in rushing. Something has to give. Kelly fires back. If we’re making staff changes, he says, I want to make different changes. Ones Woodward isn’t comfortable with.

Things get tense.

The conversation escalates. Kelly pushes back hard against his boss. Threats about negotiating Kelly’s $53 million buyout come up. But there’s a question: will the LSU Board of Supervisors even give Woodward the authority to do that?

By Sunday night, it’s over.

Kelly is out. A team meeting is called for 8 p.m. Associate head coach Frank Wilson is named interim head coach. Tight ends coach Alex Atkins will take over play-calling duties. And on Monday morning, LSU announces they’ve fired Sloan anyway. “When Coach Kelly arrived at LSU four years ago, we had high hopes that he would lead us to multiple SEC and national championships during his time in Baton Rouge,” Woodward said in the release. “Ultimately, the success at the level that LSU demands simply did not materialize.”

Translation: You didn’t win enough.

The Wildest Coaching Carousel Year in Recent Memory

But here’s the thing: Kelly isn’t the only one.

This has been one of the most chaotic coaching carousel seasons in years. Jobs are opening everywhere:

  • Penn State
  • LSU
  • Florida
  • Oklahoma State
  • Arkansas
  • Virginia Tech
  • UCLA
  • Stanford

And that’s just so far.

Florida State and Oklahoma could be next. Maybe others. The competition for top candidates is going to be insane. Top-tier schools like Florida, LSU, and Penn State are in their own tier—massive resources, elite NIL, phenomenal facilities. But even they’re going to have to pay up. Big time.

Agents are salivating.

Salaries are about to get wildly inflated. And how many of these coaches will actually complete their contracts without needing to be bought out? History says not many. But here’s the question nobody wants to ask: Who are these schools actually going to hire?

And that leads to an even more uncomfortable question for programs down the ladder.

If You’re Cal (Or Nevada, Or Louisiana Tech), What Do You Do?

Let’s talk about the schools further down the food chain for a second.

If you’re Cal, what do you do? Justin Wilcox has been there for nine years. No winning seasons since 2019. The program is stuck in mediocrity. Do you fire him and jump into this insane market where every coach’s price just tripled? Do you keep investing in a guy who hasn’t delivered? If you’re Nevada, do you pay the $2.7 million buyout for Jeff Choate and try to compete with Penn State and LSU for the same candidate pool? If you’re Louisiana Tech, do you cut ties with Sonny Cumbie and hope you can find someone better in a market that’s about to be picked clean?

The reality is brutal.

The top jobs are going to snap up the top candidates. Everyone else will be fighting over the scraps. Or they’re going to have to roll the dice on assistant coaches and hope they hit on the next Cignetti. Schools like Vanderbilt, Missouri, Tulane, North Texas, Memphis, Wake Forest, and Boise State have coaches who are prime poaching targets. And they won’t have the money to keep them if the big boys come calling.

It’s a bad year to be a mid-tier program with an up-and-coming coach.

So, Who Is LSU Going to Get That’s Better Than Brian Kelly?

Which brings us back to the biggest question of all.

Think about Kelly’s résumé for a second:

  • Two Division II national championships
  • Took Cincinnati to 11-1 and a top-4 finish
  • Took Notre Dame to two national championship games
  • Ten top-25 finishes at Notre Dame, half of them in the top 10
  • Won 10 games in each of his first two seasons at LSU with top-15 finishes
  • Won 9 games last year
  • On pace for 8 wins this year

That’s not a bad coach.

That’s an excellent coach who didn’t meet LSU’s sky-high expectations. So who’s the upgrade? The names being thrown around: Lane Kiffin, Marcus Freeman, Brent Key, Eli Drinkwitz, Jon Sumrall. Are those guys sure things? Are they going to be infinitely better than Kelly?

Nobody knows.

LSU is about to spend $100 million (or more) buying out Kelly and his staff, then funding a new coaching staff, to get someone who might be better. It’s a massive gamble. Here’s the reality: You’re going to spend probably $100M buying out your previous coaching staff and funding your new one to get someone that isn’t necessarily a sure thing. It’s not like Brian Kelly was going 4-8.

And here’s the kicker.

Unless LSU is bringing back Nick Saban, Chris Petersen, or Urban Meyer from retirement, there isn’t a candidate out there who’s a sure thing. Lane Kiffin is going to make a fortune – either from Ole Miss giving him a massive raise to stay, or from one of these desperate schools throwing ridiculous money at him. Brian Kelly won’t be out of work long. Neither will James Franklin, who Penn State moved on from. They’re outstanding coaches. The problem is they weren’t great enough for programs with championship-or-bust expectations.

And that’s the new reality of college football.

What’s Next?

The carousel is spinning.

Fast. More jobs will open. More coaches will get massive paydays. More schools will regret the contracts they’re about to hand out. In about four years, a lot of these fan bases are going to be asking: “Why did we give him that contract?!”

But right now?

It’s chaos. And LSU is right in the middle of it.

Stay tuned.

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WEEK 10 COACHES HOT SEAT RANKINGS

Mark Haines on October 27, 2025

The seats are getting hotter.

And the carousel is spinning faster than anyone expected. We’re barely past mid-season and the coaching changes are piling up. Brian Kelly is out at LSU. James Franklin got fired at Penn State two weeks ago. Florida, Oklahoma State, Arkansas, Virginia Tech, UCLA, Stanford—all looking for new head coaches.

This isn’t normal.

This is chaos. And for the coaches who are still employed? The pressure just went up. Because if a guy like Brian Kelly—with two national championships, a College Football Playoff appearance, and multiple 10-win seasons—can get fired, then nobody is safe.

So who’s next?

Here are our Week 10 Top 10 Coaches Hot Seat Rankings.

1. Mike Norvell (Florida State)

Mike Norvell’s seat isn’t just hot anymore.

It’s molten.

Florida State went from Top 10 to four-game losing streak to getting embarrassed by Stanford—a team nobody expected them to fail to beat. And now? Boosters are openly questioning whether Norvell is the guy. The administration says they’re backing him, but that’s what they always say before they’re not. The only thing keeping him in Tallahassee right now is a buyout so massive it would make your eyes water. But make no mistake: a full program assessment is coming, and nothing about this season suggests he’ll survive it.

2. Jonathan Smith (Michigan State)

Five straight losses.

Four straight losses to Michigan.

Jonathan Smith turned around Oregon State. It took time. It was a slow rebuild. But here’s the problem: today’s college football environment no longer tolerates slow rebuilds. The Spartans are 3-11 in Big Ten play under Smith, and fans aren’t willing to wait three, four, five years to see progress. And here’s the kicker: he wasn’t even hired by the current AD or president. That’s a death sentence in college football. When the people who didn’t hire you start questioning your decisions, your player development, and your ability to compete? It’s over. The patience that worked at Oregon State doesn’t exist at Michigan State. Not anymore.

3. Bill Belichick (North Carolina)

Bill Belichick’s reputation was supposed to be bulletproof.

Turns out, college football doesn’t care about your NFL résumé.

The Tar Heels are 2-4. They’re getting blown out. And the off-field issues keep piling up: a cornerbacks coach suspended for NCAA violations, reports of preferential treatment in recruiting, a scrapped documentary deal, and internal tensions that have leaked into the media. This was supposed to be the start of something special—Belichick bringing his genius to Chapel Hill. Instead, it’s dysfunction. On the field and off. And now? Exit strategy conversations are already happening. In October. Of his first season.

4. Jeff Choate (Nevada)

Year 2 at Nevada was supposed to show progress.

It hasn’t.

The Wolf Pack are still winless in conference play. They’re still one of the worst teams in FBS. The offense is broken. The losses are piling up. And fans are starting to ask the question every coach dreads: “Is this ever going to get better?” Choate went 3-10 in Year 1. He’s on pace to do worse in Year 2. But here’s the reality: local reporter Chris Murray put Choate’s hot seat at “0” on a scale of 0-10, explaining that “Choate’s buyout after this season is $2.7 million, which Nevada is not paying to change coaches.” The money is keeping him employed for now.

5. Hugh Freeze (Auburn)

Hugh Freeze finally won an SEC game.

Great. He’s 1-4 in the conference.

Auburn sits at 4-4 overall, and the win over Arkansas—while needed—doesn’t erase the reality: this program is underperforming. The quarterback play has been terrible. Game management has been questionable. And expectations? They’re not being met. Freeze was hired to bring Auburn back to relevance, and instead, they’re fighting to stay above .500. If they don’t win out, the talk of a coaching change is going to get loud. Fast.

6. Luke Fickell (Wisconsin)

Back-to-back shutouts.

By Iowa and Ohio State.

The first time Wisconsin has been shut out twice in a row since 1977. Luke Fickell’s tenure in Madison is collapsing in real time. The Badgers are 15–18 since he arrived. They’ve lost 10 straight games to Power Four opponents. The offense is nonexistent. And fans? They’re done. Chanting “Fire Fickell” in the stands. Waving shirts. Walking out. Athletic Director Chris McIntosh has publicly committed to keeping Fickell and investing more in NIL and program resources, saying “the results of this elevated support may not be immediate, but we are confident the direction will be positive and long-term.” But here’s the problem: fans aren’t buying it. Betting markets still have him as a top candidate to get fired. And unless something changes immediately, all the investment in the world won’t save him.

7. Justin Wilcox (California)

Justin Wilcox is stuck in mediocrity.

And mediocrity doesn’t keep you employed forever.

Cal hasn’t had a winning season since 2019. They’re below the required .490 winning percentage. And now, with a new chancellor emphasizing accountability and self-sustainability, Wilcox is facing a crossroads: improve immediately, or get replaced. The buyout? Nearly $11 million. That sounds like a lot until you remember Cal has some of the wealthiest alumni in college football. This program has enormous potential. If they want him gone, they’ll find the money. Recruiting is suffering. Fan support is fading. And if 2025 doesn’t show real improvement? He’s gone.

8. Derek Mason (Middle Tennessee)

Year 2 at Middle Tennessee has been abysmal.

4-14 overall. 2-9 in CUSA. Blowout losses. Embarrassing performances against teams they should be able to compete with. Derek Mason came in with a plan, but the results haven’t followed. Fans are running out of patience. Boosters are losing faith. And unless something miraculous happens, a coaching change is coming. Because at some point, you have to cut your losses and try something new.

9. Shane Beamer (South Carolina)

Shane Beamer entered 2025 with momentum.

Now he’s 3-5 and the wheels are coming off.

After a spectacular 9-4 season in 2024 that earned him SEC Coach of the Year and nearly landed the Gamecocks in the playoff, expectations were sky-high. Instead? South Carolina is dead last in SEC offensive output. The contract extension that seemed like a no-brainer six months ago now feels premature. Close losses. Underperformance. Disappointment. If this season doesn’t turn around fast, the goodwill from 2024 will evaporate. Because at some point, one great season stops being enough.

10. Sonny Cumbie (Louisiana Tech)

Sonny Cumbie started the season with the hottest seat in college football.

Clear #1. Everyone knew it.

Three straight losing seasons. 11-26 record coming in. The offense, his specialty, is getting worse every year. But then something happened: Louisiana Tech started winning games. They’re 4-3 now, competitive in Conference USA, and suddenly Cumbie’s seat has cooled. Not cold. But cooler. Here’s the problem: the offense is still struggling. The thing he was hired to fix? Still broken. And with road games at Delaware, Washington State, and Missouri State still on the schedule, plus a home date with Liberty, a bowl game isn’t guaranteed. If Louisiana Tech misses a bowl again, all that early-season progress won’t matter. Because in Year 4, you either show real improvement or the program shows you the door.

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Kentucky Has Faced The SEC’s 9th-Toughest Schedule This Season. Here’s Why Their 2-4 Record And 16.7 Points Per Game Against Quality Defenses Means Tennessee Wins By 20+ On Saturday

Mark Haines on October 24, 2025

Here’s what nobody’s talking about:

Kentucky has faced one of the most brutal schedules in college football this season. They’ve gone toe-to-toe with Georgia, Texas, and Ole Miss—all top-25 programs with elite defenses. And despite sitting at 2-4, they took Texas to overtime, losing 16-13, a game that showed real defensive grit. On paper, this looks like a team tested by fire and capable of giving Tennessee problems.

But here’s the problem.

Their offense cannot score. Against Power Five competition, Kentucky averages just 16.7 points per game. Their wins came against MAC opponents Toledo and Eastern Michigan—teams that made them look competent. Strip those away, and you’re staring at an offense that can’t sustain drives, can’t convert third downs, and can’t throw touchdowns.

And when Tennessee’s explosive attack takes the field on Saturday, that weakness gets exposed.

The Numbers Don’t Lie (Even When You Adjust For Competition)

Let’s cut through the noise and look at what actually matters.

Tennessee averages 511 yards per game. Kentucky averages 342. But you might say, “Tennessee played East Tennessee State and UAB—those stats are inflated.” Fair point. So let’s adjust for competition and see if the gap closes or widens.

Here’s what happens when you filter the data:

  • Tennessee vs Power Five opponents: 470 yards per game, 6.4 yards per play
  • Tennessee vs Georgia (No. 6): 496 yards, 41 points in overtime loss
  • Kentucky vs Power Five opponents: 314 yards per game, 4.5 yards per play
  • Kentucky vs Top-50 defenses: 16.7 points per game

Even after removing the cupcakes, Tennessee still ranks as an elite offense. They dropped 496 yards on Georgia—one of the nation’s best defenses—and pushed them to overtime. Meanwhile, Kentucky’s offense craters against quality competition.

The gap isn’t closing. It’s widening.

Kentucky’s Offense Has One Fatal Flaw

They can’t convert third downs.

With a 39% third-down conversion rate, Kentucky’s offense sputters every time they face third-and-medium. They average 0.7 passing touchdowns per game—that’s less than one per game—and their quarterback play has been inconsistent at best. Against SEC defenses, they’ve managed just 314 yards and 16.7 points per game.

Here’s what that means in real terms:

  • Kentucky goes three-and-out repeatedly
  • Their defense faces 70+ plays from Tennessee
  • By the third quarter, their defense is gassed
  • Tennessee pulls away in the second half

You can have the best defense in the world, but if you can’t score points, you can’t win football games.

Tennessee’s Tempo Is Going To Break Kentucky’s Defense

Here’s where this game gets decided.

Tennessee runs 75 plays per game—one of the fastest tempo offenses in the SEC. They come out firing with quick-strike drives, play-action deep shots, and an offensive line that creates lanes for their running backs. Kentucky’s defense has been respectable this season, holding opponents to 365 yards per game and forcing field goals in the red zone.

But sustained tempo breaks defenses.

By the third quarter, Tennessee’s depth shows. Kentucky’s defensive backs are chasing receivers on seam routes. Their linebackers are gassed from covering slot receivers. And Tennessee’s offensive line starts imposing its will. We’ve seen this movie before with Kentucky—they hang in for a half, then get blown out in the second half.

When you can’t score points, you can’t afford to let the other team dictate tempo.

The Georgia Game Told Us Everything We Needed To Know

Both teams played Georgia this season.

Let’s compare the results:

  • Tennessee vs Georgia: Lost 44-41 in overtime, 496 yards, 41 points
  • Kentucky vs Georgia: Lost 35-14, 270 yards, 14 points

That’s a 226-yard difference in offensive production against the same elite defense. Tennessee took one of the nation’s best teams to overtime in a game they arguably should’ve won. Kentucky got boat-raced at home.

If that doesn’t tell you everything about the offensive gap, nothing will.

The 3 X-Factors That Will Decide This Game

Let’s break down the key matchups.

1. Can Kentucky Convert Third Downs?

Kentucky’s offense lives and dies on third down. With a 39% conversion rate and Tennessee’s aggressive blitz packages coming off the edge, this could get ugly fast. If Kentucky can’t sustain drives, their defense faces 12-14 possessions.

That’s too many.

2. Red Zone Execution

Kentucky’s defense has been elite at limiting passing touchdowns—just 0.5 per game allowed. They force teams to kick field goals. But Tennessee’s balanced attack gives them multiple ways to score inside the 20. Touchdowns vs field goals will determine if this is a close game or a blowout.

Early touchdown conversions blow this game open by halftime.

3. Turnovers

This is Kentucky’s only path to an upset. If they can force 2-3 turnovers and create short fields, maybe—MAYBE—their limited offense can cobble together 20-24 points. But Tennessee’s been relatively careful with the ball (1.4 turnovers per game), and Kentucky isn’t exactly a ballhawking defense.

Betting on Kentucky to win the turnover battle by +2? That’s wishful thinking.

What Kentucky Needs To Do (Spoiler: It Won’t Be Enough)

Let’s game this out.

For Kentucky to pull off the upset, they need:

  • Win the turnover battle by +2 or more
  • Convert 50%+ of third downs (well above their season average)
  • Hold Tennessee under 400 total yards
  • Make every field goal attempt (they’re shooting 69% this season)

Even if Kentucky does ALL of those things, they still need to score 24+ points to have a chance. And against quality competition, they average 16.7 points per game. The math doesn’t work. The matchups don’t work. The tempo doesn’t work.

Kentucky can play inspired football for a half.

They can keep it close through sheer defensive discipline and field position management. But eventually—probably by early third quarter—Tennessee’s offensive firepower breaks through. And when it does, Kentucky doesn’t have the offensive capability to answer.

How This Game Plays Out

Here’s the quarter-by-quarter breakdown:

First Quarter: Tennessee establishes tempo. Quick three-and-out for Kentucky. Tennessee scores on a six-play, 73-yard drive capped by a play-action touchdown. 7-0 Vols.

Second Quarter: Kentucky strings together a decent drive using their run game and short passes. They stall in the red zone. Field goal. 7-3. Tennessee answers immediately with another touchdown drive. Kentucky gets another field goal before half. 17-10 Tennessee at halftime.

Third Quarter: This is where the game breaks open. Tennessee’s depth starts showing. Kentucky’s defense is gassed from defending 40+ plays in the first half. Tennessee rips off two scoring drives. Kentucky’s offense goes three-and-out twice. 31-13 Tennessee.

Fourth Quarter: Garbage time. Tennessee runs clock. Kentucky adds a late touchdown against prevent defense.

Final score: 38-17.

The Bottom Line

Look, I get it.

Kentucky has played a brutal schedule. They’ve faced a murderer’s row in the SEC, and their 2-4 record doesn’t fully reflect their defensive competence. They took Texas to overtime. They hung with Georgia for a half. This is a program that’s been battle-tested against elite competition.

But here’s the reality:

Their offense is one-dimensional. Their scoring ceiling against quality competition is 17-20 points. And Tennessee’s offense—even when you adjust for weak competition—is legitimately elite. 470 yards per game against Power Five teams. 6.4 yards per play. An up-tempo attack that wears down defenses. Home field advantage in Neyland Stadium.

Unless Tennessee commits 3+ turnovers, this game isn’t really in doubt.

Kentucky will keep it respectable for a half. But by the time the third quarter rolls around, Tennessee’s superior depth, tempo, and offensive firepower will have pulled away. The final score won’t be 50-10—Kentucky’s defense is too disciplined for that.

But a two-to-three score Tennessee victory? That’s not just likely—it’s inevitable.

Tennessee 38, Kentucky 17

Statistical Projections

Tennessee: 465-490 total yards | 38-41 points | 295 pass yards | 175 rush yards | 1 turnover

Kentucky: 300-320 total yards | 17-20 points | 190 pass yards | 120 rush yards | 2 turnovers

3 Keys To Watch

Tennessee’s first quarter tempo: If they jump out to a 14-0 or 17-3 lead early, Kentucky’s offense doesn’t have the firepower to dig out.

Kentucky’s third-down efficiency: They MUST convert 50%+ to sustain drives. Anything less and their defense faces 70+ plays.

Red zone execution: Touchdowns vs field goals will determine if this is a close game or a blowout.

Final Thought

The spread on this game should be Tennessee by 17-21 points. Kentucky’s offense is the limiting factor. You can have the best defense in the world, but if you can’t score points, you can’t win football games. And against Tennessee’s explosive attack, 17 points isn’t going to cut it.

Tennessee rolls. Kentucky fights hard for a half. But class—and offensive firepower—wins out.

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Michigan Is 6-4 And Barely Functional. Michigan State Scores 13 Points Per Game And Can’t Stop Anyone. Here’s Why Saturday’s Rivalry Game Will Be A Clinical 30-13 Win For The Wolverines (And Why Neither Fanbase Should Celebrate)

Mark Haines on October 23, 2025

There’s a moment in every rivalry when one team stops playing to win—and starts playing not to lose.

This is not a game between two good teams. This is a game between a disappointing Michigan squad that’s learned to stop embarrassing itself, and a Michigan State program that can’t stop the bleeding. The Wolverines aren’t elite. They’re just competent enough to handle a disaster.

Michigan Isn’t Good—They’re Just Less Bad Than Before

Control is not aggression.

For Michigan, it’s survival. After Oklahoma exposed them and USC humiliated them, Sherrone Moore’s program didn’t transform into something great. They transformed into something functional. They stopped trying to be what they’re not and started grinding out wins against inferior competition.

Justice Haynes runs hard because that’s all this offense can do.

7.4 yards per carry sounds impressive until you realize Michigan hasn’t played a defense worth a damn since Week 4. They’re averaging 188 rushing yards per game because they’ve played Maryland, Washington, and Illinois—not exactly murderers’ row. This isn’t a dominant rushing attack. It’s a mediocre offense that figured out how to pick on bad defenses.

Michigan fans aren’t celebrating this version of the team—they’re tolerating it.

Moore inherited a national championship roster and turned it into a 6-4 team that wins ugly. The offensive line is solid. The running back is good. Everything else? Pedestrian at best. This isn’t the program that won it all last year. This is the program desperately trying not to become irrelevant.

Michigan State Is a Complete Disaster

When you press for meaning, you lose it.

Michigan State isn’t just bad—they’re historically terrible. Four straight losses. 13 points per game in their last four conference games. 39.8 points allowed on average. Three straight second halves where they looked like they forgot football was a real sport.

Jonathan Smith’s second season in East Lansing has been a step backward.

The offense can’t score. The defense can’t stop anyone. The special teams are a liability. Smith’s rebuilds take time—his track record at Oregon State proves that—but right now, the Mel Tucker mess he inherited looks worse, not better.

Look at their play-calling. They abandon what works because nothing works. They force throws because they’re desperate. They substitute constantly because no combination of players makes a difference.

This is a program in free fall with no parachute.

The Actual Matchup: Mediocre vs Terrible

Football isn’t about momentum.

It’s about who can execute basic tasks without falling apart. Michigan can run the ball against bad defenses. Michigan State can’t stop anyone from running the ball. This isn’t strategy—it’s arithmetic.

Haynes will get his yards because Michigan State’s front seven is Swiss cheese. Michigan’s defense will suffocate an offense that couldn’t score on a JV squad. The Wolverines will win this game doing exactly what they’ve done for six weeks: run the ball, kill the clock, and wait for the other team to collapse.

That’s not dominance—that’s taking advantage of incompetence.

The third quarter will tell the story, like it always does. Michigan will come out running the same plays they’ve run all game. Michigan State’s defense will be tired, frustrated, and making mistakes. Haynes will break a couple of runs, Michigan will extend the lead, and the Spartans will quit.

Not because Michigan is great—because Michigan State is that bad.

This Rivalry Has Become One-Sided

Most people think rivalries equalize teams.

That’s a myth. Rivalries amplify the gap between programs going in opposite directions. Michigan is trending toward mediocrity. Michigan State is trending toward irrelevance.

When Haynes rips off his third big run, watch the Spartan sideline. Players will stop fighting. Coaches will stop believing. That’s when you know a program has lost its soul—when even rivalry week can’t manufacture a fight.

Michigan State came into this season hoping Jonathan Smith’s rebuild would show signs of life in year two. Instead, they’ve regressed. Smith’s track record suggests he can fix this—he turned Oregon State from laughingstock to contender—but rebuilding the Mel Tucker disaster takes time. Meanwhile, Michigan fans are wondering if Sherrone Moore is the guy to lead them back to relevance—or just another mediocre coach riding the fumes of Jim Harbaugh’s success.

The Real Story

It’s about two programs trying to figure out who they are.

Michigan isn’t elite anymore. They’re not even good. They’re just functional enough to beat bad teams and avoid total embarrassment. Moore has stabilized the program after a rough start, but stabilization isn’t excellence.

Michigan State, meanwhile, has no idea what they are—except terrible.

One team figured out how to stop the bleeding. The other can’t find the tourniquet. That’s not a rivalry game—that’s a mercy killing.

The Takeaway

Saturday won’t be close—it will be clinical.

Michigan 30, Michigan State 13. But don’t mistake clinical for impressive. Michigan will win because they’re playing a team that can’t score, can’t stop the run, and can’t manufacture any reason to believe things will get better.

This isn’t a statement win for Michigan—it’s a layup.

For Michigan State, it’s another reminder that this season can’t end fast enough. For Michigan fans, it’s another reminder that competent isn’t the same as contending.

And for the rest of college football? It’s a reminder that rivalry games only matter when both teams show up.

Saturday, only one team will bother.

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Week 9 — Top 10 Coaches Hot Seat Rankings

Mark Haines on October 20, 2025

1. Mike Norvell, Florida State (ACC)

Mike Norvell’s seat went from warm to “legit fire hot” after losing to Stanford 20-13 as a 17.5-point favorite.

The fourth straight loss. The fourth time Norvell’s had a four-game losing streak in Tallahassee. Florida State is 5-14 since the start of 2024, and sources say players were cracking jokes in the locker room about having to “respond” yet again—Norvell’s common phrase as losses mount. FSU went all-in with the portal, signing 23 transfers and spending well into the $20 million range on this roster between revenue share and NIL. The $55 million buyout—second-largest in college football history—no longer seems like a roadblock to many around the program.

Athletic director Michael Alford gave Norvell a dreaded vote of confidence, but boosters spent the flight from Palo Alto commiserating and planning.

2. Hugh Freeze, Auburn (SEC)

Hugh Freeze is under intense scrutiny after back-to-back losing seasons and a poor start in SEC play.

The Tigers risk another winless SEC campaign. Freeze’s buyout is considered manageable by Auburn standards, meaning a failure to show tangible improvement could result in his dismissal—especially with expectations unmet following his high-profile hiring from Liberty. Rumors and speculation about his future are fueling pressure across the program.

Sources tell Coaches Hot Seat that Freeze will most likely remain the head coach at Auburn through the remainder of the 2025 season.

3. Bill Belichick, North Carolina (ACC)

Bill Belichick’s debut season at North Carolina has been disastrous.

The Tar Heels are 2-4, struggling defensively and offensively in every Power Four matchup, and were recently embarrassed against California—where both Cal fans and the stadium scoreboard mercilessly trolled Belichick and girlfriend Jordon Hudson throughout the game. Athletic director Bubba Cunningham gave Belichick a “vote of confidence” despite it being well-known he did not want to hire him. Rumors already swirl about the school exploring options to move on from the legendary NFL coach.

Both the scheme and talent are failing to meet ACC standards.

4. Jeff Choate, Nevada (Mountain West)

Jeff Choate enters his second season needing rapid improvement after a brutal 3-10 debut and an 0-7 Mountain West mark.

He inherited a historically bad stretch for Nevada. But the Wolf Pack’s ongoing execution errors, penalty problems, and lack of visible player development mean that the administration and fans demand not just “process” but immediate results.

Patience is running out for anything short of a significant turnaround.

5. Joe Moorhead, Akron (MAC)

Despite incremental statistical improvement, Joe Moorhead’s 10-34 record in three years overshadows any progress at Akron.

Expectations are now for actual wins, not just competitive efforts. Last season’s upgraded defense regressed offensively, and major roster overhauls have yet to translate into results—Akron lost 42-28 to Ball State last Saturday. Frustration mounts among stakeholders tired of moral victories.

This is a do-or-die 2025 for Moorhead.

6. Luke Fickell, Wisconsin (Big Ten)

Luke Fickell’s tenure has soured dramatically after a string of shutout losses, leaving Wisconsin at 2-5 with its worst Power Four losing streak in decades.

The Badgers’ complete lack of offensive progress and recent blowouts, combined with a tough schedule, have ramped up calls for change. Fickell’s once-impressive resume is doing little to quell dissatisfaction in Madison.

However, sources at Wisconsin tell Coaches Hot Seat that the consensus in Madison is to bring Fickell back next season while increasing NIL investments and the use of the portal.

7. Butch Jones, Arkansas State (Sun Belt)

Butch Jones is again in hot seat territory after showing little progress during his time at Arkansas State, despite a small bright spot last year.

The 2025 season has started with poor results—zero FBS wins as of October—and his contract situation means the school could feasibly move on if the win-loss pattern doesn’t change. Arkansas State scraped by South Alabama 15-14 in their last game.

Growing fan impatience means Jones is running out of time.

8. Justin Wilcox, California (ACC)

Justin Wilcox faced major pressure after years of mediocrity as Cal struggled to transition into the ACC.

While flashes of improvement appeared early in 2025, his seat remains warm due to lack of signature wins and questions about long-term program direction. Cal beat North Carolina 21-18 last game—knocking off Bill Belichick—but nearly lost in a sloppy contest. With an expensive buyout but little recent success, Wilcox must keep showing progress.

Otherwise, fan unrest and alumni demands for a fresh direction will intensify.

9. Sonny Cumbie, Louisiana Tech (C-USA)

Sonny Cumbie’s program has stagnated with three straight losing seasons and an 15-28 overall record, keeping him near the top of Group of Five hot seat lists.

Once regarded as an offensive innovator, Cumbie’s tenure has been marked by unmet expectations and a fanbase tired of perpetual underachievement. Cumbie started the season at #1 on the Hot Seat rankings—his team has won some games this year, but the weak spot remains the offense, Cumbie’s specialty.

His job status is week-to-week barring drastic change.

10. Derek Mason, Middle Tennessee (C-USA)

Derek Mason is only in his second year, but a bleak 4-14 record and lack of progress following a 3-9 debut has rapidly sapped any initial optimism about his hire.

The Blue Raiders’ ongoing struggles and the absence of visible improvement—especially after a supposed “stabilizing” hire—have quickly landed Mason on national watch lists.

The program is evaluating his future as wins remain elusive.

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California (4-2) Hosts North Carolina (2-3) Friday Night: A Brutally Honest Game Preview Of Two Bad Teams Fighting To Prove Who Sucks Less

Mark Haines on October 17, 2025

This is not a game between two good football teams.

Let’s just get that out of the way right now. California (4-2) hosts North Carolina (2-3) on Friday night in Berkeley, and if you’re expecting offensive fireworks or elite defensive play, you’re watching the wrong game. This is a battle between two deeply flawed teams trying to figure out who can avoid embarrassing themselves on national television.

But here’s the thing: it might be wildly entertaining for all the wrong reasons.

Cal Has Perfected The Art Of Creative Losing

If you’ve followed California football for more than five minutes, you know they’ve invented approximately 47 new ways to lose football games.

They are the masters of creative catastrophe.

  • Lost 0-34 to San Diego State (a team that went 3-9 last year)
  • Got shutout at home… by a Mountain West team
  • Scored 21 points against Duke and still lost by 24
  • Beat an FCS team and act like they’re playoff contenders

The Golden Bears are the team that will drive 90 yards down the field, get inside the 5-yard line, and then somehow throw three consecutive incompletions to settle for a field goal. Or miss it. They’ll probably miss it.

This is Cal football, baby.

Bill Belichick’s Offense Is A Dumpster Fire

Meanwhile, North Carolina hired the greatest coach in NFL history and somehow made their offense worse.

The Tar Heels are averaging 11 points per game against Power 5 opponents.

Let that sink in for a second. Eleven. That’s not a typo. That’s not adjusted for pace or advanced metrics. That’s just… pathetically bad football. Here’s what UNC has accomplished this season:

  • Scored 14 points against TCU (lost by 34)
  • Scored 9 points against UCF (yes, nine)
  • Scored 10 points against Clemson
  • Beat FCS Richmond and think they’re back

The Belichick Era in Chapel Hill has been one long, painful lesson in “NFL schemes don’t work in college when you have college players.” Their offense is so dysfunctional it makes Cal’s creative losing look competent by comparison.

And that’s saying something.

The Matchups Are Hilariously One-Sided

Let’s talk about what happens when these two teams play each other.

California’s mediocre offense versus North Carolina’s terrible defense:

Cal should score. Their freshman quarterback threw for 279 yards and three touchdowns against Minnesota. UNC’s defense allows 70.3% completions (one of the worst in FBS) and gives up 40 points per game to Power 5 teams. Even Cal’s inconsistent passing attack should move the ball.

The problem? Cal also got shut out by San Diego State, so who the hell knows?

North Carolina’s abysmal offense versus California’s decent defense:

This is where the game gets decided. UNC can’t score against anyone with a pulse. Cal’s defense ranks 32nd nationally in scoring defense and should absolutely dominate this matchup. The only question is whether UNC scores 7 or 10 points before the clock hits zero.

The special teams and coaching edges:

  • Cal has an All-America return specialist (advantage: Cal)
  • Cal had a bye week to prepare (advantage: Cal)
  • Cal plays at home at 10:30pm ET (advantage: Cal)
  • Bill Belichick has eight Super Bowl rings (advantage: doesn’t matter, his offense stinks)

Everything favors California except for one tiny detail: they’re California, and they specialize in losing games they should win.

Why Cal Should Win (But Might Not)

Here’s the rational, data-driven case for why California wins this game by two touchdowns.

The numbers don’t lie:

  • Home field advantage + late-night body clock game
  • UNC’s offense is historically bad (119th in scoring nationally)
  • Cal’s defense can shut down UNC’s dysfunction
  • UNC is 0-3 against Power 5 teams with a -29 point average margin
  • Cal had extra week to prepare and gameplan

If you run this game through a computer simulation 100 times, Cal probably wins 75 of them. They’re better at almost every position. Their quarterback is inconsistent but still better than whatever UNC is running out there. Their defense is competent. They’re playing at home.

They should cruise to a 24-10 victory.

Why Cal Could Still Lose (Because They’re Cal)

But then you remember: this is California football.

And California football is chaos incarnate.

The Golden Bears have a unique talent for finding new and inventive ways to lose games they should win. Maybe their freshman QB throws four interceptions. Maybe they fumble on their own 10-yard line three times. Maybe Bill Belichick conjures up some dark NFL sorcery that confuses everyone.

Here are the ways this goes sideways:

  • Cal’s offense reverts to “San Diego State shutout” mode
  • Freshman QB makes 2-3 catastrophic mistakes
  • Red zone failures turn TDs into field goals (or misses)
  • Belichick’s desperate game plan actually works for once
  • The universe decides Cal fans don’t deserve nice things

The probability? Maybe 25%.

But that 25% is real. Cal could absolutely blow this. They’ve blown easier games. They’re probably drawing up the blueprint for how to blow this one right now.

The Real Prediction

California 24, North Carolina 10

Cal’s defense holds UNC to one garbage-time touchdown and a field goal. Cal’s offense does just enough against UNC’s awful pass defense to score three touchdowns (probably). The home crowd gets loud. The body clock matters. Bill Belichick looks confused on the sideline, wondering why his NFL plays don’t work in college.

This is the most likely outcome.

But if you’re betting the house on this game, maybe reconsider. Because Cal is involved, and Cal specializes in making their fans suffer in new and creative ways. They could win 31-7. They could lose 20-23 on a last-second field goal after blowing a 17-point lead.

That’s the beauty and terror of California football.

What To Watch For

If you’re actually going to watch this Friday night disaster, here’s what matters:

  • First 10 minutes: Does Cal’s offense move the ball easily against UNC’s defense? If yes, this game is over.
  • UNC’s first red zone trip: Can they score a TD or do they settle for a FG? (Spoiler: they’ll probably fail entirely)
  • Cal’s turnover count: If the freshman QB throws 2+ picks, UNC has a chance
  • Third quarter adjustments: Does Belichick have anything creative? (Narrator: he does not)

The over/under will probably be around 44 points. Hammer the under. Both teams stink at scoring. Both teams will settle for field goals in the red zone. Both teams will punt 12 times.

This game hits 34 total points and everyone goes home disappointed.

The Bottom Line

California should win this game because North Carolina’s offense is one of the worst in college football.

That’s it. That’s the analysis.

UNC can’t score against decent defenses. Cal has a decent defense. Math says Cal wins. But Cal also has a proud tradition of defying math and finding spectacular new ways to lose, so bring popcorn and prepare for chaos.

Final prediction: Cal 24, UNC 10 (with 40% confidence that something weirder happens)

Welcome to Friday night Pac-12… wait, ACC… wait, who even knows anymore? This is college football in 2025, where nothing makes sense and the points don’t matter unless you’re betting the under.

Enjoy the trainwreck.

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The Bush Push Was 20 Years Ago. USC Is Due For Another Heartbreaker At Notre Dame—Except This Time, The Trojans Are On The Wrong End: 30-27

Mark Haines on October 14, 2025

USC rolls into South Bend with a 5-1 record, flashy offensive numbers, and a quarterback playing out of his mind.

Notre Dame sits at 4-2, licking their wounds from two heartbreaking losses to start the season. On paper, this looks like a coin flip. But here’s what everyone is missing: USC’s offensive explosion is a mirage—and Notre Dame’s elite defensive line is about to expose it.

Let me show you why.

The Narrative Everyone Believes

Jayden Maiava is having a Heisman-level season.

The kid leads the entire nation with a 93.5 QBR. He’s thrown for 1,852 yards through six games. His completion percentage (73.1%) is absurd. And he’s got weapons—Makai Lemon has 682 receiving yards and 6 touchdowns, Ja’Kobi Lane is averaging 17.4 yards per catch.

USC’s offense is averaging 552.3 yards per game.

Meanwhile, Notre Dame has already lost twice.

Both to ranked opponents. Both by a combined 4 points, sure—but losses are losses. So the question becomes: Can the Trojans’ explosive offense outduel Notre Dame at home?

Wrong question.

The Real Question No One Is Asking

Can USC’s inflated statistics hold up against the first legitimate defense they’ve faced all season?

Spoiler alert: They can’t.

The Truth Hidden In The Schedule

Let’s talk about USC’s competition.

Week 1: Missouri State (73-13 win)
Week 2: Georgia Southern (59-20 win)

You know what Missouri State is?

A team in its first year transitioning from FCS to FBS, ineligible for postseason play. You know what Georgia Southern is? A Sun Belt team that USC dominated by 39 points. These games are padding stats like crazy.

Remove those two cupcake games, and USC’s offense drops from 552 yards per game to roughly 430-440 against Power 4 competition.

Still good?

Sure. Elite? Not even close.

Now look at Notre Dame’s schedule:

  • Week 1: @ #10 Miami (Lost 24-27)
  • Week 2: vs #16 Texas A&M (Lost 40-41)
  • Every single opponent: Power 4 or better

Notre Dame opened with a potential preseason top-10 team in Miami and hosted a possible top-15 team in Texas A&M, and lost both games by a field goal and a point.

One team has been battle-tested against elite competition.

The other has been stat-padding against cupcakes. Guess which is which?

The Common Opponent Test

Both teams played Purdue.

Notre Dame beat them 56-30. USC beat them 33-17. Same opponent.

Notre Dame scored 23 more points and gained roughly 180 more yards.

When both teams faced the same level of competition, Notre Dame was significantly more dominant.

This is your canary in the coal mine.

The Matchup That Decides Everything

Forget the hype around Maiava for a second.

This game will be won or lost in the trenches, the critical battle: USC’s Offensive Line vs Notre Dame’s Defensive Line.

Here’s what you need to know:

Notre Dame’s defensive line is ranked 6th in the entire nation by Athlon Sports, featuring a deep 6-man rotation that can bring fresh pass rushers at you all game long.

Notre Dame’s run defense allows just 106.2 yards per game and 3.4 yards per carry.

That’s elite.

Now, USC’s offensive line has actually performed well this season.

They rushed for 224 yards against Michigan—the most Michigan had allowed all season. Maiava’s 93.5 QBR doesn’t happen with a terrible O-line. But here’s the thing: USC hasn’t faced a defensive front like this yet.

Not even close.

Notre Dame can throw six different elite pass rushers at you—Boubacar Traore, Bryce Young, Junior Tuihalamaka, Joshua Burnham, Jordan Botelho, Loghan Thomas.

When that rotation starts wearing down USC’s line in the third quarter, Maiava’s clean pockets disappear.

And when Maiava’s under pressure for the first time all season, Notre Dame forces 2.0 turnovers per game.

This is where the game breaks.

What Happens When USC Has The Ball

Maiava will get his yards.

The kid is too good not to. He’ll probably throw for 280-320 yards and 2-3 touchdowns. Lemon and Lane will make plays—they’re both averaging 15+ yards per catch for a reason.

But USC’s rushing attack—the thing that’s been averaging 226.5 yards per game—is about to hit a wall.

Notre Dame’s run defense will hold them to 95-125 yards, max.

Without a ground game, USC becomes one-dimensional. And one-dimensional offenses throw interceptions. Notre Dame forces 2.0 turnovers per game.

Maiava has only thrown 2 picks all season because he hasn’t faced pressure like this.

He’ll throw 1-2 more on Saturday.

USC’s projected output:

  • 24-31 points
  • 375-445 total yards
  • 1-2 turnovers

What Happens When Notre Dame Has The Ball

Notre Dame isn’t flashy.

They’re averaging 465.5 yards per game with 7.2 yards per play—and every single yard has come against quality competition. They’ll run the ball 35+ times. They’ll control the clock.

They’ll pound USC’s defense into submission.

USC’s run defense is solid (allowing 108.5 yards per game), but Notre Dame’s physical, balanced attack will wear them down.

Expect 140-165 rushing yards, 260-290 passing yards, and 2-3 touchdowns.

Notre Dame’s projected output:

  • 27-34 points
  • 400-455 total yards
  • 0-1 turnovers

The X-Factor Everyone Is Ignoring

Notre Dame is 0-2 against ranked opponents this season.

Both losses were heartbreakers. Both by a combined 4 points. They’re at home, they’re desperate, and they’ve been preparing for exactly this level of competition since Week 1.

And let’s not forget the history here.

Anthony Davis scored 6 touchdowns in 1972. The Bush Push in 2005—Reggie Bush helping push Matt Leinart into the end zone as time expired for a 34-31 win. This rivalry has a long history of USC breaking Notre Dame’s heart in the cruelest ways possible.

It’s been 20 years since the Bush Push, and South Bend hasn’t forgotten.

The players haven’t forgotten. Marcus Freeman hasn’t forgotten. The fans certainly haven’t forgotten.

USC?

They’re walking into the loudest stadium they’ve played in all year, against the best defense they’ve faced, with offensive stats inflated by two cupcakes. The pressure is entirely on USC to prove its stats are real.

And I don’t think they can.

The Bold Prediction

Notre Dame 30, USC 27.

Here’s how it plays out:

The first half is back-and-forth. Maiava looks great. Lemon makes a couple of explosive plays.

It’s 17-17 at halftime.

Third quarter, Notre Dame’s 6-man defensive line rotation starts to take over.

Fresh pass rushers every series. USC’s O-line tires. Maiava’s clean pocket disappears. Turnover. Notre Dame goes up 27-20.

In the fourth quarter, USC abandons the run because Notre Dame’s defense has shut it down completely.

Maiava throws for 100+ yards in the quarter, trying to catch up. Notre Dame controls the clock with their run game, bleeds time, and hangs on. USC gets the ball back with 2:00 left, drives to midfield, and the game ends on an incomplete pass.

Why I’m 65% Confident (Not Higher)

Look, Maiava is legit.

93.5 QBR doesn’t lie. The kid can play. And when you have receivers like Lemon (682 yards, 6 TDs) and Lane (313 yards) who can take any throw to the house, you’re never out of it.

One blown coverage, one big play, and USC wins.

That’s the 35% chance they pull this off.

But the other 65%?

That belongs to Notre Dame’s battle-tested defense, elite front seven, and home-field advantage against a team whose gaudy stats are about to get exposed. The Trojans’ magic number run hits a brick wall in South Bend.

And it won’t even be close by the fourth quarter.

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Week 8 — Coaches Hot Seat Rankings

Mark Haines on October 14, 2025

Three coaches were fired on Sunday.

Trent Dilfer. James Franklin. Trent Bray.

Gone.

When coaches start falling in October, everyone else feels it. The phone calls start. The quiet meetings happen. The pressure that was already there gets cranked up to a whole new level.

Here are the 10 coaches under the most pressure in college football right now:

1. Billy Napier, Florida (SEC)

Trent Dilfer got fired Sunday with a 3-4 record.

Billy Napier is 21-23 at Florida. One upset over Texas doesn’t erase years of mediocrity. The Gators are paying him $7 million to compete for bowl eligibility while Georgia and Alabama compete for championships.

That’s unacceptable at Florida.

2. Hugh Freeze, Auburn (SEC)

Hugh Freeze came to Auburn with a redemption story.

A second chance after Ole Miss. Auburn gave him big money, full control, everything he needed to compete. The pressure is mounting because it’s not working.

Right now, Auburn isn’t competing.

3. Mike Norvell, Florida State (ACC)

Florida State hasn’t won an ACC game since November 2023.

Fifteen straight conference losses. Two full seasons. Zero ACC wins.

Mike Norvell went from 13-1 ACC Champions to unwatchable in less than a year.

FSU beat Florida earlier this season, and the media acted like they were “back.” They’re not—they’re 0-2 in ACC play. Norvell has had two years to figure out how to win in the ACC.

At Florida State, that’s unacceptable.

4. Jeff Choate, Nevada (Mountain West)

Jeff Choate is 4-15 at Nevada.

What worked at Montana State isn’t translating to the FBS level. Choate talks about tough, physical football, but Nevada is getting pushed around. The problem isn’t philosophy—it’s execution.

Choate is running out of time.

5. Joe Moorhead, Akron (MAC)

Joe Moorhead is 10-33 at Akron.

Elite offensive coordinator at previous stops. Winner at Fordham. But the Zips move the ball, rack up yards, then stall in the red zone—that’s coaching.

A 10-33 record over four years tells the story.

6. Luke Fickell, Wisconsin (Big Ten)

Luke Fickell was supposed to save Wisconsin football.

Wisconsin gave him everything—big money, full control, time to install his system. The defense has regressed, the offense looks disjointed, and the Big Ten is exposing every weakness. Wisconsin fans don’t want to hear about systems—they want wins.

Fickell isn’t meeting the Wisconsin standard yet.

7. Butch Jones, Arkansas State (Sun Belt)

Butch Jones failed at Tennessee.

Now he’s failing at Arkansas State. The Red Wolves are underperforming, players aren’t buying in, and fans aren’t showing up. Arkansas State thought Jones learned from his Tennessee mistakes.

The results suggest otherwise.

8. Justin Wilcox, California (ACC)

Cal got a fresh start with the move to the ACC.

New conference. New competition. New expectations. And here’s the number that matters: 8 wins.

That’s what Justin Wilcox needs to keep his job.

Look at what’s left on the schedule:

  • North Carolina
  • At Virginia Tech
  • Ranked Virginia
  • At Louisville
  • At Stanford
  • SMU

Six games—Cal needs to win five of them.

Wilcox is supposed to be a defensive guru who maximizes limited resources. But the Bears are getting manhandled by ACC competition—the defense can’t stop anyone, the offense can’t score. The math isn’t mathing.

Cal has a new chancellor—an alum, Class of ’83.

They hired Ron Rivera, NFL veteran head coach, as General Manager overseeing the football program. ESPN’s Gameday came to Berkeley last season. Everyone saw the potential. Cal has poured money and resources into this program—and they’re expecting results.

Can Willcox get the Golden Bears to 8 regular-season wins?

9. Sonny Cumbie, Louisiana Tech (C-USA)

Sonny Cumbie was supposed to bring offensive firepower to Louisiana Tech.

The Air Raid disciple. The Texas Tech coordinator everyone wanted to hire. But coordinating and head coaching are two completely different jobs—the offense has been inconsistent, the defense worse, and the program feels directionless.

Coordinator success doesn’t automatically translate to head coaching success.

10. Derek Mason, Middle Tennessee (C-USA)

Derek Mason is 4-14 at Middle Tennessee.

He’s a defensive coach in an era where offense wins championships. Mason is building a 2005 program in 2025, and Middle Tennessee can barely crack 20 points per game. MTSU fans are asking: What exactly are we getting better at?

If the answer is “nothing,” the pressure builds.

The Bottom Line:

Three coaches got fired this week—more will follow.

Athletic directors are making calls. Boosters are applying pressure. Coaches who thought they were safe realize they’re not.

Want the full picture?

Our newsletter subscribers get exclusive analysis of coaches ranked 11-25—the ones trending in the wrong direction but not quite in crisis mode yet.

Subscribe here to get all 136 FBS rankings every week.

Because pressure is a ranking—and everyone’s being measured.

Check out the complete 136 FBS Coaches Hot Seat Rankings.

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Hugh Freeze Has 2 Games To Save His Job At Auburn. Here’s Why Saturday Night’s Matchup Against #10 Georgia At Jordan-Hare Stadium Is Game 1 Of His Final Stand

Mark Haines on October 9, 2025

7:30 PM EDT. Jordan-Hare Stadium. Lights. Chaos. Everything on the line.

This isn’t just another SEC game.

This is Hugh Freeze fighting for his job. This is Auburn desperate for relevance after back-to-back losses. This is Georgia trying to stay in the playoff hunt on the road, at night, in one of the most dangerous venues in college football.

Let me break down exactly what’s about to happen.

The Numbers Don’t Lie (But Jordan-Hare At Night Doesn’t Care)

Georgia is the better team on paper.

Georgia’s Offensive Dominance:

  • 438.6 yards per game (96.4 more than Auburn)
  • 34.6 points per game
  • Perfectly balanced: 231.8 passing, 206.8 rushing
  • 3.2 rushing touchdowns per game
  • 24.8 first downs per game

Auburn’s Offensive Struggles:

  • 342.2 yards per game (bottom-tier SEC)
  • 27.6 points per game
  • Anemic passing: 173.2 yards, 1.0 TD per game
  • Only scored 10 points at Texas A&M

Georgia should win by double digits.

But here’s what the stats don’t tell you: Auburn at night in Jordan-Hare has produced some of the most inexplicable upsets in college football history. The “Kick Six” against Alabama. Stunning wins over LSU, Georgia, and other powerhouses who had no business losing.

Strange things happen here after dark.

What To Watch: Georgia With The Ball

Can Auburn’s elite run defense hold?

This is the marquee matchup of the game. Auburn allows only 82 rushing yards per game at 2.7 yards per carry. That’s legitimately elite. But Georgia rushes for 206.8 yards per game at 4.8 yards per carry with over 3 rushing touchdowns per game.

Something’s gotta give.

If Auburn stacks the box to stop the run, Georgia will torch them through the air. If they play honestly, Georgia will run them over. There’s no good answer for Auburn’s defensive coordinator.

The balance problem Georgia creates:

Georgia doesn’t just beat you one way. They beat you every way. 231.8 passing yards per game. 206.8 rushing yards per game. Perfectly balanced, impossibly difficult to defend.

Auburn has to pick its poison.

In a night game where crowd noise makes communication difficult, Georgia’s ability to run the ball becomes even more valuable. No audibles needed. Just line up and impose your will.

Watch the first down battle:

Georgia averages 24.8 first downs per game. Long, methodical drives that keep Auburn’s defense on the field and completely gassed by the fourth quarter.

If Georgia controls the clock and sustains drives, Auburn’s offense won’t get enough possessions to keep pace. And with Auburn averaging only 27.6 points per game, they need every possession they can get.

Can Georgia handle the noise?

Here’s Georgia’s biggest weakness: 40.8 penalty yards per game. False starts. Holding calls. Drive killers.

Now put them on the road, at night, in one of the loudest stadiums in America. Communication becomes nearly impossible. The crowd will be absolutely deafening on every Georgia snap.

If Georgia beats itself with penalties, Auburn has a chance.

What To Watch: Auburn With The Ball

Can Auburn throw the football at all?

This is the existential question for Hugh Freeze’s offense.

173.2 passing yards per game. Only 1.0 passing touchdown per game. Those are borderline FCS numbers in the modern SEC. You cannot win big games with that level of offensive production.

Georgia’s pass defense allows 231.2 yards per game, which means Auburn should be able to exploit it through the air. But “should” and “can” are two very different things.

If Auburn comes out scared and conservative in the passing game, they have no chance. If Hugh Freeze opens up the playbook and takes shots downfield, they might be able to keep Georgia honest enough to run the ball effectively.

The ghost of Texas A&M:

Auburn scored 10 points at Texas A&M. Ten.

That performance haunts everything about this game. Can Auburn’s offense show up when it matters most? Or will they shrink under the pressure and the lights?

The first quarter will tell you everything you need to know.

Ball security is victory:

Auburn’s best stat: 0.2 turnovers per game. Elite ball security. Georgia commits 1.4 turnovers per game.

If Auburn takes care of the football and Georgia coughs it up twice, suddenly you’ve got short fields and momentum shifts. That’s how upsets happen.

One Auburn turnover probably ends the game. Zero Auburn turnovers gives them a legitimate puncher’s chance.

Time of possession will decide this:

Auburn averages 342.2 total yards per game. That’s not enough to win a shootout.

So they have to shorten the game. Long, grinding drives that keep the clock moving and Georgia’s explosive offense on the sideline. Lean on the run game (169 yards per game, 2.4 TDs). Control the tempo.

If Auburn gets into a track meet, they lose by three touchdowns.

Hugh Freeze’s bag of tricks:

When coaches are fighting for their jobs at home under the lights, desperation breeds creativity.

Watch for fake punts, trick plays, ultra-aggressive fourth down calls. Hugh Freeze knows conventional football won’t beat Georgia. He needs chaos, misdirection, and a little bit of magic.

At night, Jordan-Hare is the perfect stage for desperation to become brilliance.

What Each Team Brings To This Party

Georgia’s Advantages:

  • Superior talent across the board
  • Balanced, explosive offense that can beat you any way
  • Already won at #15 Tennessee (proven road warriors)
  • Playoff desperation creates focus
  • Better coaching, better depth, better everything

Georgia’s Vulnerabilities:

  • Turnover prone (1.4 per game)
  • Penalties on the road in hostile environments
  • Might overlook Auburn after beating Kentucky
  • Playing at the most dangerous venue in America

Auburn’s Advantages:

  • Home field at night (worth 10-14 points in chaos)
  • Elite ball security (0.2 turnovers per game)
  • A stout run defense that can slow Georgia down
  • Nothing to lose, everything to gain
  • Desperation creates superhuman effort

Auburn’s Vulnerabilities:

  • Offensive ineptitude (96.4 fewer yards per game than Georgia)
  • Can’t throw the football consistently
  • Two-game losing streak in SEC play
  • The talent gap is real and significant

The matchup heavily favors Georgia.

But the environment heavily favors chaos. And chaos is Auburn’s best friend.

Final Score Prediction: Georgia 31, Auburn 20

But here’s what you need to understand.

This prediction is based on logic, statistics, and talent evaluation. Georgia is the better team. They should win.

But night games at Jordan-Hare Stadium don’t follow logic.

Here’s how I see it unfolding:

First Quarter: 7-7. Auburn comes out absolutely possessed. The crowd is deafening. Georgia struggles with false starts and communication. Auburn feeds off the energy.

Second Quarter: 17-13 Georgia. Talent starts to show, but Auburn refuses to fold. A trick play or defensive turnover keeps them within striking distance. Jordan-Hare is absolutely electric at halftime.

Third Quarter: 24-20 Georgia. Back and forth. Every Georgia score gets answered. The crowd never sits down. Auburn is in this thing.

Fourth Quarter: 31-20 Georgia. Superior depth and offensive firepower finally create separation. Auburn’s limited offense can’t generate enough to keep pace over 60 minutes.

That’s the logical outcome.

But don’t be shocked if Auburn wins outright. I give them a legitimate 30-35% chance to pull the upset. That’s not “Auburn might get lucky.” That’s “Auburn has a real path to victory if a few things break their way.”

Georgia fumbles twice. Hugh Freeze calls the game of his life. The crowd forces three false starts at crucial moments. Auburn’s defense gets a pick-six.

Suddenly, it’s 27-24 Auburn with 5 minutes left, and Georgia is shell-shocked.

It can happen. It has happened. This is Jordan-Hare at night.

What This Means For Hugh Freeze

If Auburn loses 31-20:

On paper, it looks “respectable.” A competitive home loss to #10 Georgia.

But Auburn fans won’t see it that way. They’ll see an offense that still can’t score more than 20 points against quality competition. They’ll see a wasted opportunity on the biggest stage with the entire fanbase behind them.

Top 5 hot seat status: Confirmed.

If Auburn wins:

Season saved. Freeze becomes an overnight hero. The “Hugh Freeze can’t win the big one” narrative gets torched. Suddenly, that top 5 hot seat talk disappears.

Until the subsequent loss.

The reality:

This game will define Hugh Freeze’s Auburn tenure one way or another. Win, and he buys himself a full season of goodwill. Lose, and the whispers become screams.

The Bottom Line

Georgia should win.

But Auburn, at home, at night, with everything on the line and nothing to lose, is the most dangerous version of Auburn that exists.

The smart money is on Georgia by 7-9 points.

The fun money is on Auburn and chaos.

See you Saturday night.

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USC’s Starting Center Kilian O’Connor Is Out vs Michigan’s Elite Defense. Here’s Why The Trojans’ 338 Passing Yards Per Game Still Wins Them The Game 28-21 (And Why The Injury Will Be The Go-To Excuse If They Lose)

Mark Haines on October 8, 2025

Lincoln Riley needs to win this game.

Not because USC’s season depends on it—though a loss would hurt their playoff chances. Riley needs to win because he’s in the middle of a three-game stretch that will define whether he’s a program-builder or just another coach who couldn’t handle the jump to a major conference. No. 15 Michigan at home, then at No. 16 Notre Dame, then at Nebraska. Three brutal tests in three weeks. The Cornhuskers aren’t ranked in the AP Poll, but they’re ranked 22nd by The New York Times and are receiving votes in multiple polls. Three chances to prove USC belongs in the Big Ten elite.

Win two of three, and the critical mass of Trojan supporters stays on board. Go 1-2 or worse, and the questions get louder.

So naturally, USC’s starting center Kilian O’Connor is out with a leg injury.

The Injury Factor: USC’s Built-In Excuse

O’Connor went down against Illinois and will miss multiple weeks, including this game. Losing your starting center, a team leader, and a critical piece of the offensive line against Michigan’s dominant defensive front isn’t ideal. Without O’Connor, pass protection timing gets disrupted. Run blocking schemes lose continuity. Michigan’s defensive front will relentlessly attack backup center J’Onre Reed.

If Riley loses, this injury becomes the convenient narrative. Not his fault. Not a coaching problem. Just bad injury luck at the worst possible time.

But here’s the problem: USC should still win this game.

Why USC Wins (Even Without O’Connor)

USC does what Michigan can’t; they hurt you through the air. 338 passing yards per game. 72.1% completion rate. 2.4 passing touchdowns per game. They’re efficient, explosive, and capable of scoring in bunches. Michigan’s secondary is vulnerable, allowing 206.4 passing yards per game at a 65.1% completion rate.

Even with a backup center, USC’s passing attack should be able to exploit Michigan’s weakness. Quick passes, screens, play-action to neutralize pressure—the scheme adapts. Expect 280-320 passing yards from USC.

Michigan’s run defense is elite, allowing just 77 yards per game at 2.4 yards per carry. USC will struggle on the ground. Expect 80-110 rushing yards. But USC doesn’t need to dominate the run game. They need their quarterback to pick apart Michigan’s secondary.

USC generates 370-430 total yards and scores 24-28 points.

Why Michigan Can’t Keep Pace

Michigan’s offense runs through one dimension: the ground game. 237.8 rushing yards per game at 6.4 yards per carry. It’s physical, effective Big Ten football. They’re getting healthier, too. Starting left guard Giovanni El-Hadi and tight end Hogan Hansen are both probable to return.

But their passing game is borderline nonexistent. Just 200.6 passing yards per game with a 58.8% completion rate and 0.6 passing touchdowns per game. That’s not a typo—they throw a touchdown pass roughly every other game.

USC knows this. They’ll stack the box, dare Michigan to throw, and force them into predictable situations. Michigan will grind out 190-220 rushing yards and score 20-24 points. They’ll control the time of possession and keep it competitive.

But when Michigan falls behind and needs to throw? They can’t keep pace.

The Verdict: Riley Survives Game One

USC wins, 28-21.

Michigan’s healthier offensive line helps them sustain drives and score consistently through the ground game. USC’s backup center struggles at times, limiting explosive plays. The game stays tight throughout four quarters.

But USC’s passing game talent—even compromised without O’Connor—proves too much for a Michigan team that can’t match their scoring through the air.

The wildcard: If Michigan’s defensive line overwhelms the backup center early and forces turnovers, their ball-control offense could grind out a stunning upset. But that’s unlikely.

More likely? Riley wins Game One of his three-game gauntlet, the stats hold up, and USC moves to 5-1. Then it’s on to the next test.

And if Riley loses? Don’t worry—the O’Connor injury will be the headline, not the performance. The excuse is pre-packaged. The narrative writes itself.

But Riley can’t afford to use it twice more in this stretch.

Three games. Three chances. One has to go right for the injury excuse to work. If USC goes 0-3 or 1-2 in this stretch, no amount of injury talk will save Riley from the questions about whether he can win the games that matter in the Big Ten.

Saturday is Game One. The clock is ticking.

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