Blog Article
Baylor Football 2025: Redemption Tour or Reality Check?
Dave Aranda’s coaching career with Baylor football was hanging by a thread after a disastrous 3-9 season in 2023 and a rough 2-4 start to 2024.
Then something clicked. The Bears rattled off six straight wins, finished 8-5, secured a Texas Bowl appearance, and completely rewrote Aranda’s future in Waco. Now entering 2025 with a .508 winning percentage and a contract through 2029, the once-scorching hot seat has cooled to room temperature.
But the real question remains: Was 2024’s surge the beginning of something special, or just a mirage that raised expectations to dangerous heights?
The Offensive Arsenal Is Locked and Loaded
One sentence says it all: Baylor returns 9 of 11 starters from an offense that ranked 6th nationally with 440.1 yards per game.
This offensive continuity creates multiple advantages heading into 2025:
- QB Sawyer Robertson (3,071 yards, 28 TDs) returns fully healthy after battling late-season ankle issues and enters with dark horse Heisman buzz
- Freshman All-American RB Bryson Washington (1,028 yards, 13 TDs) provides the perfect ground complement
- Alabama transfer WR Kobe Prentice joins returning deep threat Josh Cameron (754 yards, 10 TDs)
- The offensive line that helped convert 92% of red-zone opportunities (5th nationally) remains largely intact
With this collection of talent, Baylor’s offense has the firepower to hang with any team in the reconfigured Big 12.
Defensive Vulnerabilities Required Immediate Intervention
The Bears’ defense gave up 234.2 passing yards per game in 2024, with opposing quarterbacks completing 60.3% of their attempts.
Aranda’s staff attacked these weaknesses with surgical precision:
- Hired Paul Gonzales (13 years at TCU) as passing game coordinator and cornerbacks coach to address technical issues in the secondary
- Added Ohio State CB Calvin Simpson-Hunt and Northwestern S Devin Turner through the transfer portal
- Brought in 380-pound NT Samu Taumanupepe from Texas A&M to strengthen the interior line
- Repositioned veteran Cooper Lanz to defensive end to maximize his impact
The returning anchor is LB Keaton Thomas (114 tackles, 7 TFLs, 2.5 sacks), whose leadership will be crucial in implementing these defensive adjustments.
The Staff Overhaul Speaks Volumes About Priorities
Aranda didn’t just tinker with his coaching staff—he surgically targeted his team’s most significant weaknesses with precision hires.
The defensive backfield desperately needed new direction after allowing 246.3 passing yards per game (bottom five in the Big 12). Outside linebackers coach Caleb Collins and cornerbacks coach Kevin Curtis were not retained, replaced by Carson Hall (Western Kentucky) and Paul Gonzales (TCU).
Gonzales’s emphasis on technique and eye discipline directly addresses the pass interference penalties that plagued the 2024 squad. Meanwhile, Aranda expanded his support staff with key additions:
- Kaeron Johnson (former Baylor player) returns as Assistant AD for Football Relations
- Connor Killian joins as Director of Football Strategy
- Jadyn Wells takes over as Director of On-Campus Recruiting
This balanced approach—stability at the coordinator level with targeted changes in position coaching—provides the perfect blend of continuity and fresh perspectives.
The Program Structure Has Been Modernized for Today’s College Football
The days of a head coach simply running practices and calling plays are long gone.
Baylor has responded to college football’s rapidly evolving landscape by restructuring its operations for 2025:
- Aaron Hunt’s promotion to general manager professionalizes the front office
- Anthony Mauro (Assistant GM) and Joe Reynolds (Associate Director of Player Personnel) focus specifically on portal management
- David Kaye now serves as NIL General Manager, recognizing the importance of name, image, and likeness in talent retention.
These administrative changes might not make highlight reels, but they represent Baylor’s commitment to competing in modern college football’s talent acquisition marketplace.
Our Hot Seat Team Member Jeff Exemplifies the Fan Experience
Jeff is our newsletter’s resident Baylor superfan, having experienced every high and low of the Bears’ recent rollercoaster seasons.
The increased season ticket prices for 2025 haven’t dampened his enthusiasm, as he—like many dedicated Bears supporters—sees the potential in this revamped squad. His steadfast loyalty through the 3-9 disappointment of 2023 and the promising finish to 2024 mirrors the broader fan base’s journey.
Fan surveys reveal this dramatic shift in sentiment, with over 90% of respondents feeling optimistic about the program’s trajectory under Aranda. This remarkable turnaround in fan perception provides tangible evidence of last season’s impact beyond the win-loss record.
The Schedule: Opportunity or Obstacle?
The 2025 slate opens with a high-profile matchup against SEC opponent Auburn that 68% of fans identified as their most anticipated game.
But that’s just the beginning of a gauntlet that includes:
- Reigning Big 12 champion Arizona State in the conference opener
- Challenging road trips to TCU, Oklahoma State, Houston, and Arizona
- Traditional Big 12 powers who are looking to establish themselves in the reconfigured conference
Two strategically placed bye weeks (October 11 and November 8) provide valuable recovery time before critical late-season matchups that could determine Baylor’s postseason fate.
Expectations Are Sky-High, But Reality Requires Caution
Fan surveys reveal dramatic optimism, with 44% predicting a 9-3 record, 28% forecasting 10-2, and 15% expecting 8-4.
This represents a stunning reversal from the uncertainty surrounding Aranda just one year ago. Over 90% of surveyed fans now express positive feelings about the program’s trajectory—a testament to what six consecutive wins can do for public perception.
But the expanded 12-team College Football Playoff has raised the stakes even higher. Nearly 70% of fans believe Baylor has a legitimate shot at making the field, especially if they can win the Big 12.
The most realistic path forward? Baylor’s success hinges on winning two-thirds of its toss-up games (Auburn, Arizona State, TCU, Arizona). With offensive continuity and defensive improvements, a 9-3 regular season record appears achievable but far from guaranteed.
So What’s The Final Verdict?
Baylor football enters 2025 with significant momentum following last season’s six-game winning streak and Texas Bowl appearance.
The offense features proven playmakers at every position. The defense has been reinforced through coaching changes and strategic transfer additions. The program structure has been modernized to compete in today’s collegiate landscape.
But expectations can be dangerous, especially in the unpredictable world of college football. While Baylor has positioned itself as a competitive program in the Big 12, the difference between 10-2 and 7-5 often comes down to a handful of plays, injuries, and bounces of an oddly-shaped ball.
What’s certain is that Aranda has earned the opportunity to build upon last year’s momentum, and Baylor fans have reason for cautious optimism that their program is headed in the right direction once again.
Become an Insider
Don’t miss another deep dive into college football’s most crucial storylines and program developments. Our team-by-team analysis gives you the insider perspective to understand where each program is headed in 2025 and beyond. Subscribe for free now to access our comprehensive breakdowns, exclusive hot seat rankings, and in-depth conference analysis delivered to your inbox. Join thousands of college football insiders who trust Coaches Hot Seat to keep them ahead of the game. Hit the link below to unlock all our premium content and never miss another update.
