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Tavita Pritchard Helped Jayden Daniels Win Rookie Of The Year. Now He Has To Rebuild A Stanford Program That Went 6–18 Under Troy Taylor. That’s A Very Different Job.

Mark Haines on February 12, 2026

Stanford just made the most Stanford hire in modern college football.

Tavita Pritchard is a Cardinal lifer:

  • Former Stanford QB
  • Long-time assistant
  • Offensive coordinator under David Shaw
  • Most recently the quarterbacks coach in Washington who helped Jayden Daniels win Offensive Rookie of the Year and reach the NFC Championship Game

Everyone in Palo Alto loves this hire. Andrew Luck hand-picked him. The institution exhaled. The press conference was warm and fuzzy.

Here’s the problem.

Fit doesn’t win football games. And Stanford just went 6–18 under Troy Taylor and 4–7 under Frank Reich. Pritchard isn’t walking into a program that needs a hug. He’s walking into a rebuild.

So the real question isn’t whether Pritchard belongs at Stanford. He obviously does.

The question is whether belonging there is enough to fix what’s broken.

Stanford Didn’t Hire A Coach. They Hired A Culture Reset.

This is a culture-and-alignment play, not a splash hire.

Troy Taylor’s exit was ugly. Back-to-back 3–9 seasons. Workplace culture issues that triggered internal investigations. Then a one-year Frank Reich band-aid that went 4–7. By the time Stanford started this search, the program wasn’t just losing football games. It was losing trust.

Luck’s GM model is built around one idea: long-term alignment with Stanford’s identity. That means the head coach needs to understand:

  • How admissions actually works
  • What the academic calendar does to your recruiting calendar
  • The kind of kid Stanford can and can’t get
  • How far the portal and NIL ceiling really stretches in Palo Alto

Pritchard checks every one of those boxes. A “safe outsider” was never going to be safer politically than a plugged-in alum Luck can personally vouch for.

If your lens is “did they hire someone who can navigate Stanford’s politics, academics, and GM structure,” this is an A+ answer.

His QB Development Resume Is The Strongest Card In His Hand

Pritchard’s track record with quarterbacks is legitimately deep.

He spent years in Stanford’s QB room, then went to Washington for three seasons and worked alongside Kliff Kingsbury to co-build a top-5 offense around Jayden Daniels. Kingsbury handled the call sheet and macro design. Pritchard ran the QB room, shaped what actually made it into the game plan based on what his guys saw on film, and built what Kingsbury called the “tightest and most unified” quarterback room he’d ever seen.

That collaboration powered an NFC Championship Game run.

Here’s why that matters for Stanford specifically. The kind of high-GPA four-star quarterback Stanford targets isn’t choosing between Stanford and Alabama. He’s choosing between Stanford and Northwestern, or Stanford and Duke. When the head coach can say “I just developed an Offensive Rookie of the Year and reached the NFC title game,” that pitch lands differently than another coordinator’s promises.

The identity he’s selling is coherent too:

  • Pro-style, QB-centric offense
  • Physical run game
  • Modernized version of the Harbaugh/Shaw template he grew up in

In an ACC that doesn’t defend power football particularly well outside the top tier, that identity has a lane.

The upside case is straightforward. QB recruiting ticks up, the offense stabilizes around a clear identity, and Stanford gets back to 7–9-win competency while leveraging the expanded CFP as a ceiling play once every few years.

The Resume Has A Hole In It

Let me be clear about the risk here.

Tavita Pritchard has never been a head coach at any level. His only major OC tenure was the back half of the David Shaw era, which ended with the offense trending down and the program sliding into irrelevance. That’s not all on him. But if you’re running a traditional coaching evaluation, the “has run his own program successfully” box is empty.

Here’s what makes the risk compound:

  • He’s inheriting a roster that went 6–18 under Taylor and 4–7 under Reich. This is a full rebuild in a new conference with uncertain resources.
  • The GM-driven structure cuts both ways. Luck can solve some problems, but Pritchard operates inside a corporate hierarchy most first-time HCs never face. If the Luck–Pritchard–AD alignment wobbles, the head coach’s leverage is limited.
  • Early staff reports emphasize Stanford familiarity and NFL seasoning more than recruiting killers. That’s consistent with Luck’s model but increases the risk that the staff can’t recruit above the job’s resource baseline.
  • Stanford’s NIL and credit-transfer constraints are real. The optimistic read is selective portal hits at key positions. The pessimistic read is the talent ceiling is capped no matter who’s coaching.

If you’re grading strictly by traditional hiring heuristics — HC track record, recent college success, recruiting proof of concept — this comes out as a B–/C+ swing, not a slam dunk.

Quinn, Kingsbury, and Mariota All Say The Same Thing

The endorsements from Washington aren’t the usual farewell pleasantries.

Dan Quinn said Pritchard will be “a fantastic head coach” and that he’d be “especially effective at Stanford.” That’s specific. Most coaches leaving for a new job get a generic send-off. Quinn went out of his way to connect Pritchard’s strengths to the specific demands of this particular job.

Kliff Kingsbury went further. “If I had a son playing college football, I’d want him to play for Tavita Pritchard.” That’s not something you say about a colleague you liked. That’s something you say about someone you trust with development.

Marcus Mariota credited Pritchard directly for playing the best football of his career, calling his weekly process and preparation “elite.”

Here’s why this matters for the evaluation. Quinn, Kingsbury, and Mariota all emphasize the same traits:

  • Smart and collaborative
  • Players gravitate to him
  • Competitive without being ego-driven
  • Builds tight, unified rooms

That profile maps almost perfectly onto what Stanford’s GM model is designed to find. Luck wanted a culture carrier, a servant-leader type, someone who thrives inside collaboration rather than demanding full autonomy.

Pritchard is exactly that coach.

How He Grades Out Across The CHS Five Pillars

Here’s how he grades out across our standard evaluation framework.

The Job: B

Elite brand, ACC access, Bay Area talent base. But bruised roster, uncertain NIL muscle, and a GM structure that reduces traditional HC autonomy. B+ ceiling, C+ current condition.

Track Record: C+

Strong QB development resume. Zero evidence as a turnaround architect or program CEO. His only college OC sample is “stagnant offense on a fading roster.”

Recruiting / Roster: B–

The NFL QB pitch gives him a real edge with Stanford’s target recruit. Structural talent limits everywhere else. He’s not walking into a ready-made top-25 two-deep.

Scheme / Staff: B–

Clear identity with a lane in the ACC. Some evidence it can stagnate if he replays 2018–22 instead of evolving. Staff is familiarity-heavy, not recruiting-heavy.

Fit / Runway: A

Stanford lifer. Luck-endorsed. Post-Taylor stability hire. The GM model probably guarantees him more patience than Taylor got, especially if culture and recruiting effort grade out well before the win curve spikes.

CHS Blended Grade: B / B–

An elite-fit, QB-centric swing with more institutional sense than raw resume juice, and a wider-than-normal performance band.

The Ceiling Is Harbaugh-Lite. The Floor Is Comfortable Mediocrity.

Here’s where the rubber meets the road.

On a five-year horizon, the model projects something like this:

  • Median outcome: Solid bowl-caliber Stanford. 6–8 wins by Year 3, culture rebuilt, QB recruiting stabilized.
  • Upside tail: Harbaugh-lite revival. The NFL QB pipeline, Stanford’s brand, and ACC positioning push the program back into the top-25 conversation and occasional CFP contention.
  • Downside tail: A gentle, politically protected 5–7 slog. The roster never catches up, the NIL gap proves structural, and Stanford settles into comfortable ACC mediocrity without anyone getting fired over it.

The Luck/GM structure gives Pritchard a longer leash than Taylor got. The institution wants this to work, and they’ve built the infrastructure around that bet.

But by Year 3, if wins aren’t trending toward 7+, the “perfect fit” narrative won’t save him.

It’ll just make the eventual conversation more awkward.

The PR Says Stanford Found Its Guy. The Data Says Something Different.

The PR around this hire will say Stanford found its guy.

The data says Stanford found a high-upside bet that makes more institutional sense than on-field sense. At least for now. Pritchard is an elite culture hire with a real identity and legitimate QB development upside. But the gap between what Stanford needs him to be — a program rebuilder and CEO — and what he’s proven he can do — coach quarterbacks brilliantly inside someone else’s structure — is exactly where the risk lives.

Time will tell which version of this story gets written.

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Cal Hired a First-Time Head Coach With Zero HC Experience, an Elite Recruiting Resume, and a Trail of Controversy. Here’s Why It Might Work.

Mark Haines on February 6, 2026

Cal just made the most important football hire in the program’s modern history.

On December 4, 2025, the Bears named Oregon defensive coordinator Tosh Lupoi as their 35th head football coach. Five-year deal. First-time head coach. A former Cal defensive lineman returning to an alma mater that hasn’t finished a season ranked in the AP poll since 2006.

The hire came less than two weeks after Justin Wilcox was fired following a sloppy 31–10 Big Game loss to Stanford. A loss that punctuated nine seasons of well-meaning mediocrity. Wilcox went 48–55 overall. 26–47 in conference. Zero winning conference records. Ever.

GM Ron Rivera (hired in March 2025 to overhaul the program) looked at that ceiling and decided it was no longer acceptable.

So: is Lupoi the right guy to blow through it?

The Short Answer

This is a high-upside, moderate-risk hire that makes a lot of sense for where Cal is right now.

Lupoi checks nearly every box a program in Cal’s position desperately needs:

  • Elite recruiting ability: Arguably the best recruiter on the West Coast
  • Deep institutional connection: Cal alum, Bay Area native, Tedford coaching tree
  • Championship-level résumé: Saban at Alabama, Lanning at Oregon
  • Immediate results: 32-man portal class, star QB retained, NFL alumni rallying

He also comes with legitimate concerns. No head coaching experience at any level. Some character questions from his past. And a mixed track record the one time he ran a defense solo at Alabama.

Let’s break it all down.

What Makes This Hire Promising

Recruiting Is the Calling Card

This is where Lupoi separates from every other candidate Cal could have hired.

He was named Rivals.com National Recruiter of the Year in 2010 while at Cal. He’s landed elite talent everywhere he’s been. And his recruiting footprint includes names that span programs, conferences, and decades:

  • At Cal: Keenan Allen, Cameron Jordan, Tyson Alualu (two first-round NFL Draft picks)
  • At Washington: Shaq Thompson (first-round pick)
  • At Alabama: Najee Harris, Jaylen Waddle, Trevon Diggs
  • At Oregon: Helped assemble rosters that reached back-to-back College Football Playoffs

For a Cal program that struggled to attract top talent even in the Pac-12, and now must compete for resources in the ACC, this skill set is arguably more important than any X’s-and-O’s credential on the market.

And the early returns are already proving the point.

Lupoi assembled a 32-man transfer portal class that ranks 13th nationally according to 247Sports.

First among all ACC teams. He beat out programs like LSU, Indiana, Georgia, and Ole Miss for key commitments. Here are some of the headliners:

  • Adam Mohammed (RB, Washington): Top-5 portal running back nationally
  • Chase Hendricks (WR, Ohio): Top-100 transfer
  • Ian Strong (WR, Rutgers): Top-50 portal player per On3
  • Kingston Lopa (S, Oregon): 6’5, 210-pound former four-star who followed Lupoi from Eugene
  • Solomon Williams (DE, Texas A&M): Chose Cal over multiple SEC offers

Jared Goff has been publicly boosting Lupoi’s recruiting efforts. Cameron Jordan and DeSean Jackson visited Berkeley. Multiple Cal NFL alumni showed up at Memorial Stadium during Super Bowl week to show their support.

That kind of immediate portal activity from a first-time head coach is rare. That kind of alumni engagement is rarer.

A Résumé Built in Championship Environments

Lupoi didn’t learn his craft at mid-major programs hoping to get noticed.

He learned it from the best coaches in college football. And then proved he belonged in the NFL, too. Here’s the career arc:

  • Alabama (2014–2018): Five years under Nick Saban. Rose from analyst to co-DC to sole defensive coordinator. Part of two national championship teams (2015, 2017). Alabama led the nation in scoring defense in 2016 (13.0 ppg) and 2017 (11.9 ppg).
  • NFL (2019–2021): Three years coaching defensive line for the Cleveland Browns, Atlanta Falcons, and Jacksonville Jaguars.
  • Oregon (2022–2025): Four seasons as Dan Lanning’s defensive coordinator. Top-25 defense in each of his last three seasons. Top-3 nationally in total defense in 2025. Two-time Broyles Award finalist.

He even stayed to coach Oregon through their 2025 College Football Playoff run, flying back and forth between Eugene and Berkeley to recruit for Cal between playoff games.

That’s a coordinator who has proven he can build and sustain elite defenses at the highest levels of the sport.

The Cal Connection Matters More Than Usual

Most coaching hires come with a press conference quote about “love for the program.”

Lupoi doesn’t need the script. He played defensive line at Cal from 2000 to 2005. He attended De La Salle High School in the Bay Area, one of the most storied prep programs in the country. He began his coaching career in Berkeley under Jeff Tedford, becoming the youngest full-time coach in Cal football history at age 26.

He was part of Tedford’s 2004 team that went 10–2 with Aaron Rodgers at quarterback and reached No. 4 in the nation. That’s not a talking point. That’s a lived experience.

Rivera specifically emphasized that any coaching candidate had to genuinely want the Cal job. Multiple former high-profile players advocated publicly (and privately) for Lupoi to get the position. And within 48 hours of being named head coach, Lupoi flew to Hawaii to personally recruit star freshman QB Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele.

He secured his return for 2026.

Sagapolutele Changes the Equation

Retaining Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele was Lupoi’s first major test as head coach.

He passed it immediately. The freshman quarterback became the first player in FBS history to throw for at least 200 yards in each of his first 12 games. He finished with 3,117 yards, 17 touchdowns, and 9 interceptions. And Cal has a pipeline of sending quarterbacks to the NFL as first-round picks. Aaron Rodgers and Jared Goff both walked through Berkeley on their way to the pros.

Having a franchise quarterback already on the roster gives Lupoi a runway that most first-time head coaches never get.

Legitimate Concerns

Zero Head Coaching Experience

This is the elephant in the room.

Lupoi has never been a head coach at any level. Not in college. Not in high school. Not anywhere. He’ll need to manage an entire program. And the jump from coordinator to CEO is enormous:

  • Offense and special teams: not just defense
  • Staff hiring and retention: Building a full coaching operation from scratch
  • NIL strategy and budget allocation: The new lifeblood of college football
  • Media obligations, academic compliance, donor relations: The CEO stuff that coordinators never touch

The leap from coordinator to head coach is historically about a coin flip in terms of outcomes. For every Dan Lanning, there’s a Todd Grantham. For every Kirby Smart, there’s a Jeremy Pruitt.

The CEO skills required to run a program are fundamentally different from the position-specific expertise of a coordinator.

Character Questions From the Past

Lupoi’s career history includes a few red flags.

None of them are disqualifying on their own. But taken together, they’re worth acknowledging:

  • Fake injury scandal (2010): Suspended one game after admitting he told a player to fake an injury during a game against Oregon to slow Chip Kelly’s no-huddle offense. He was one of the few coaches who actually owned up to a tactic that was widespread at the time.
  • Controversial departure (2012): Left Cal for Washington and took several highly ranked recruits with him, including five-star defensive player Shaq Thompson. The move created lasting bad blood among some in the Cal community.
  • Recruiting investigation: Investigated for alleged recruiting violations at Washington. He was later acquitted, but the investigation contributed to a period of unemployment before Saban hired him at Alabama.

These incidents are a decade old. But Cal fans remember them.

The 2018 Alabama Question

Here’s the concern that’s harder to dismiss.

Lupoi’s overall time at Alabama was successful. Two national championships. Elite defensive units. A pipeline of first-round draft picks under his position coaching. But the one year he ran the defense solo as the full defensive coordinator (2018) was widely seen as a step back from the elite standards Saban’s program demands.

He moved to the NFL the following year rather than staying on staff. Some reporting suggests he was pushed out.

The counter-argument is Oregon.

His four-year run as Lanning’s DC produced consistently elite defenses and two Broyles Award finalist nominations. Top-3 nationally in total defense in his final season. Top-25 units in each of his last three years. The question is whether his best work requires an elite head coach above him, or whether the Oregon tenure proves he’s matured past the 2018 stumble.

Four years of sustained excellence is a strong rebuttal. But it doesn’t completely erase the question.

Early Program-Building Signals

What Lupoi has done in his first two months tells us a lot about his approach.

  • Young, aggressive coaching staff. OC Jordan Somerville (29) came from the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, where he helped develop Baker Mayfield. DC Michael Hutchings (30) came from the Minnesota Vikings. Both are first-time coordinators. Lupoi is betting on upside and energy over experience.
  • Oregon pipeline. Four staffers followed Lupoi from Eugene, including analysts who worked with Bo Nix and Dillon Gabriel. He’s transplanting the systems and culture he helped build at Oregon.
  • Increased investment. Lupoi secured a commitment from Cal’s administration to raise the coaching salary pool to the upper tier of the ACC. He stated publicly he would not have taken the job otherwise. Cal is fully funded for revenue-sharing with players in 2026.
  • Relentless pace. His wife told reporters he hasn’t had 48 consecutive hours off since August. He juggled Oregon’s playoff run and Cal’s portal recruiting simultaneously, flying to Berkeley for portal visits between playoff games.

That’s the energy of someone who understands the urgency of the moment.

Coaches Hot Seat Hire Scorecard

FactorAssessment
Recruiting AbilityElite. Rivals National Recruiter of the Year, proven across four programs
Schematic ChopsStrong coordinator résumé. Oregon defense ranked top-3 nationally in final season
Program ConnectionDeep. Cal alum, De La Salle product, Bay Area native, Tedford coaching tree
HC ExperienceNone. First-time head coach at any level
Staff BuildingYoung and aggressive. NFL-level OC and DC, Oregon pipeline staffers
Character/BaggageSome red flags (fake injury scandal, controversial departure, recruiting investigation)
Early Roster MovesExcellent. 32-man portal class ranked 13th nationally; retained star QB
Institutional SupportStrong. Rivera GM structure, increased salary pool, fully funded revenue-sharing
CeilingHigh. If recruiting translates, Cal can compete for upper-ACC standing
FloorCoordinator who can’t manage the full scope of a head coaching job

Wilcox vs. Lupoi: Side-by-Side

DimensionJustin Wilcox (2017–2025)Tosh Lupoi (Incoming)
Record48–55 overall, 26–47 in conference0–0 as HC; elite coordinator track
Peak Season8–5 in 2019; no winning seasons afterOregon defense: top-3 nationally in 2025
Bowls / Profile5 eligible, 4 appearances, 1 winNo HC bowls; profile built as recruiter/DC
RecruitingSolid but not game-changing; lost key players to portal annuallyRivals Recruiter of the Year; 32-man portal class ranked 13th nationally
TrajectoryPlateaued at 6 wins; Big Game loss triggered firingHired to reset ceiling; ACC era demands higher talent baseline
Institutional FitDefensive identity; stabilized culture but couldn’t break throughCal alum; explicitly wanted the job; energy and culture reset
Risk ProfileLow variance: clear floor, limited ceilingHigh variance: elite upside, unproven as CEO

The Verdict

Wilcox proved that doing the old Cal job well is no longer enough.

He stabilized the program after the Sonny Dykes era. He restored defensive credibility. He won five of his last seven Big Games. But he never produced a sustained step-change. Nine seasons. Zero winning conference records. And a program that was actively losing its best talent to the portal every single offseason.

The world changed around him. Conference realignment. NIL. The transfer portal. Wilcox couldn’t change with it.

Lupoi is Cal’s bet that an alum with elite recruiting chops can redefine what the job even is.

The Bears are willingly accepting more risk in exchange for a shot at materially raising their talent and relevance level in the ACC. Here’s what the support structure looks like:

  • Rivera GM structure: Institutional support a first-time HC rarely gets
  • Increased salary pool: Upper-tier ACC resources for coaches
  • Fully funded revenue-sharing: Competitive NIL positioning
  • Franchise quarterback: Sagapolutele gives the offense a cornerstone
  • 32-man portal class: Immediate roster upgrade, ranked 13th nationally

This hire makes sense given Cal’s specific constraints. The Bears aren’t a destination that can poach a proven Power 4 head coach. Lupoi represents the best realistic combination of ceiling and willingness to be in Berkeley.

The biggest risk is the coordinator-to-CEO leap. But the infrastructure around him gives him a better runway than most first-time head coaches ever get.

COACHES HOT SEAT HIRE GRADE: B+ High-upside, moderate-risk hire with A-potential if the recruiting translates and he manages the transition to CEO-level leadership.

What to Watch in Year One

Five things that will tell us whether this hire is working.

  • Portal class integration: Can 32 new transfers gel with holdovers by September? The roster turnover is massive.
  • Offensive identity: Somerville is a first-time OC. What does this offense look like built around Sagapolutele?
  • Sagapolutele’s leap: He showed flashes as a freshman but also threw 9 picks and was sacked 29 times. Year two needs to be different.
  • Defensive installation: Lupoi is a defensive mind, but he brought a 30-year-old first-time DC. Can the defense be competitive immediately?
  • Culture and energy: The vibe around the program has already shifted. Can Lupoi sustain it once September arrives and the games count?

Check back at midseason. We’ll revisit the grade.

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James Franklin Is 4-21 Against Top-10 Teams. Here’s Why Virginia Tech Hired Him Anyway, And Why It Might Actually Be The Right Call

Mark Haines on December 5, 2025

Is James Franklin a Good Hire at Virginia Tech?

The Verdict

James Franklin is a high-floor, polarizingly safe hire for Virginia Tech.

He dramatically raises the talent and competency baseline in Blacksburg. His recruiting prowess will immediately transform VT’s roster trajectory. And his track record of building programs (Vanderbilt, Penn State) removes the developmental gamble that tanked the Pry era.

But his historical ceiling in big games makes it unlikely he turns VT into a true national title contender.

The Numbers Don’t Lie

Franklin’s career record speaks for itself—and it stacks up favorably against Virginia Tech’s coaching legacy.

Franklin vs Virginia Tech Coaching Legends

Franklin’s .687 career win percentage actually exceeds Frank Beamer’s legendary .667 mark at Virginia Tech. His bowl record (4-2) significantly outpaces Beamer’s 16-19 postseason ledger.

The Elephant in the Room

Franklin wins games. But can he win the right games?

At Penn State, Franklin went 4-21 against AP Top-10 opponents. That’s the number that haunted him in Happy Valley—and the number that will follow him to Blacksburg. When games mattered most, when a breakthrough win would have changed the program’s trajectory, Franklin came up short.

Franklin vs. Elite Coaches (Career Records)

The gap is stark. Saban won 81% of his games against ranked opponents. Meyer won 84%. Franklin? He’s .500 against ranked teams—and significantly worse against Top-10 competition specifically.

The Recruiting Rocket

This is where Franklin immediately changes everything.

In roughly two weeks on the job, Franklin dragged Virginia Tech’s 2026 class from around No. 120-125 nationally into the low-20s. He flipped 10+ former Penn State commits, pulling heavily from Pennsylvania, New Jersey, and the Mid-Atlantic. The current class includes at least six ESPN Top 300 prospects.

This isn’t incremental improvement. This is a complete geographic and talent-level reorientation.

  • Before Franklin: VT classes hovered in the 30s-50s nationally with only one top-25 finish in the last decade.
  • After Franklin: Tracking toward VT’s best class since the early 2010s—with no full staff and a three-week runway
  • Projected steady-state: Classes settling in the 15-25 range annually instead of the 30-50 band

Franklin has explicitly said VT will “always” prioritize offensive and defensive line recruiting. Given VT just produced a top-25 class with almost no runway, expect Hokies classes to feature more blue-chip linemen than they’ve signed in years.

The Virginia Tech Context

Virginia Tech made this move after an 0-3 start in 2025, including a blowout loss to Old Dominion and a defensive collapse under a defensive-minded coach.

Let’s be clear about where the Hokies have been since Beamer left:

  • Only one double-digit win season since 2011 (Fuente’s first year, 2016)
  • Brent Pry went 16-24 and never finished ranked
  • The program has drifted mainly into the ACC middle

Franklin’s win rate, ranked finishes, and recruiting baselines are all significantly above what VT has produced since 2011. The expected value jump from Pry to Franklin is massive—even if the ceiling remains debated.

The ACC Factor

Here’s the key insight that makes this hire make sense:

The ACC path is significantly easier than the Big Ten gauntlet Franklin just left.

In the Big Ten, Franklin had to navigate Ohio State, Michigan, Oregon, and Washington every year. His historical ceiling there translated to “playoff fringe but not elite.” But in the ACC? That same performance profile projects to frequent 9-10-win seasons, regular conference title contention, and occasional playoff appearances in the expanded field.

For a program that hasn’t lived in that neighborhood for a decade, that represents a clear upgrade.

The Bottom Line

Virginia Tech’s realistic near-term needs are:

  1. Consistent 8-10 win seasons
  2. Regular ACC contention and major bowl relevance
  3. A recruiting/portal footprint that looks like peak Beamer-era VT, modernized

Franklin’s history suggests he is very likely to deliver that tier and stabilize the brand—even if he falls short of making VT a playoff mainstay.

  • High probability of getting VT “back.”
  • Low probability of a true national-title breakthrough.
  • Virtually no mystery about what you’re buying.

VT is effectively trading the uncertainty (and downside) of another developmental hire for a highly predictable product: strong floor, defined ceiling, and an immediate recruiting jolt that reestablishes the Hokies as a serious operation in the region.

Is that a “good hire”?

For what Virginia Tech needs right now? Yes. Absolutely.

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Grading the Carousel: Preliminary Hire Grades for the 2024-25 Cycle

Mark Haines on December 3, 2025

The carousel never stops spinning.

We’re tracking 21 coaching changes this cycle — 13 with new coaches already named, 8 still waiting on their guy. What follows are our preliminary grades across three categories: Hire Quality, Process, and Fan/Media Sentiment.

These aren’t final verdicts.

They’re initial reactions. First impressions. The kind of grades that will look either brilliant or idiotic in three years when we revisit them.

We’ll do deep dives on each hire individually in the coming weeks. But for now, here’s where every job stands — from the home runs to the dumpster fires.

The Home Runs

These programs swung big and connected.

Virginia Tech — James Franklin (A / A– / A)

The Hokies didn’t just make a hire. They made a statement.

Landing James Franklin from Penn State signals that Virginia Tech is done being a sleeping giant. The staff and recruiting implications will ripple through the ACC for years. The only question now is whether VT finally acts like the resource program it’s always claimed to be.

How his Penn State staff/recruits follow, what this does to the ACC power structure, and whether VT is finally acting like a “resource program” again.

Oregon State — JaMarcus Shephard (A / A– / A)

The Beavers landed their guy without a nationwide circus.

JaMarcus Shephard comes from Alabama’s staff into the most uncertain moment in Oregon State history. Post-realignment survival depends on portal management and identity preservation. A first-time head coach navigating conference limbo while maintaining Trent Bray’s defensive DNA is a tall order — but OSU handled this search like a program that knows exactly who it is.

Post-realignment survival, recruiting without a stable league home, and whether a first-time HC can maintain Bray’s defensive identity.

LSU — Lane Kiffin (A / D / A)

The hire is an A. The process was a circus.

Lane Kiffin to LSU was the worst-kept secret in college football, which made the public courtship even messier. But the end result? A program with unlimited resources landing one of the sport’s best offensive minds and most ruthless recruiters. The marriage either produces championships or a spectacular implosion. There is no middle ground in Baton Rouge.

Ole Miss fallout, staff poaching wars, and if LSU’s booster culture amplifies or burns out Kiffin’s volatility in a hurry.

Colorado State — Jim Mora Jr. (A / B / B+)

The Mountain West needed a credible name. CSU delivered.

Jim Mora brings NFL pedigree, P4 experience, and a recruiting network that Jay Norvell never fully activated. The question is whether this is a “last tour” victory lap or a legitimate rebuild. Either way, CSU positioned itself to capitalize on a weakened conference landscape.

Can Mora still grind on the trail, how CSU positions itself vs. a weakened MWC, and whether this is a “last tour” or a true rebuild.

Kentucky — Will Stein (A / B– / B)

Mark Stoops cast a long shadow. Will Stein steps into it confidently.

The offensive identity pivot is exactly what Kentucky needed after years of defensive-first football. Stein’s explosiveness ceiling could push the Wildcats from the 7-win band into genuine SEC East contention. The NIL landscape remains a challenge, but this hire signals ambition.

Stoops’ shadow, offensive identity pivot, NIL vs. league peers, and whether Stein can keep Kentucky in the 7–9 win band with a higher explosiveness ceiling.

Auburn — Alex Golesh (A– / B+ / B+)

Auburn got its tempo guy, Alex Golesh, from South Florida.

Golesh’s USF offense translated well enough to earn him a shot at the SEC’s toughest division. The patience level in Auburn is… historically nonexistent. But the process was clean, the hire was decisive, and line-of-scrimmage recruiting will determine whether this becomes a home run or a cautionary tale.

Translation of his USF tempo offense to the SEC West equivalent, patience level in Auburn, and how he recruits the lines of scrimmage.

The Solid Singles

Not flashy. Not embarrassing. Just… fine.

Stanford — Tavita Pritchard (B+ / B / B)

The Cardinal went internal and pragmatic.

Tavita Pritchard inherits Andrew Luck’s GM involvement and Stanford’s perpetual NIL/admissions constraints. The bet is that an NFL-style QB room can overcome portal friction in an ACC that doesn’t care about your academic reputation. It’s a reasonable swing given the circumstances.

Andrew Luck’s GM role, Stanford’s NIL constraints, and whether an NFL-style QB room can overcome admissions/portal friction in the ACC.

UCLA — Bob Chesney (B+ / C / C+)

This is either the next Kalen DeBoer or bargain shopping.

Bob Chesney’s jump from FCS to the Big Ten grind is significant. Here’s the strange part: the process was actually solid — because Martin Jarmond wasn’t running it. And that tells you everything about the real red flags at this job. An ineffective, egomaniacal athletic director. A disconnected, tone-deaf chancellor. A bean counter who only understands counting beans. Chesney’s system might translate just fine. Whether anyone can succeed under this administration is the bigger question.

The massive jump from FCS to the Big Ten grind, and whether anyone can succeed under an ineffective AD, a tone-deaf chancellor, and an administration that only understands counting beans.

Oklahoma State — Eric Morris (B– / B– / B–)

Life after Gundy is officially here.

Eric Morris keeps the Air Raid DNA without the 20-year cultural infrastructure. The question is whether Oklahoma State wants to chase Big 12 titles or just stability. This hire suggests stability. That’s not necessarily wrong — but it’s not inspiring either.

Life after Gundy’s long tenure, keeping the Air Raid DNA without the old culture, and whether OSU wants to chase Big 12 titles or just stability.

Ole Miss — Pete Golding (B / C+ / B)

Continuity hire. Full stop.

Pete Golding’s job is to keep the portal from hemorrhaging and maintain defensive credibility while the offense finds a new identity post-Kiffin. Whether he can be more than a recruiter/DC remains the central question. The Rebels are betting on stability over splash.

Defensive continuity vs. offensive identity change, portal retention after Kiffin, and whether Golding can be more than a recruiter/DC.

Michigan State — Pat Fitzgerald (C / B / B)

The Spartans hired a culture reset.

After back-to-back scandals, Pat Fitzgerald’s “Northwestern-style overachiever” ceiling might be exactly what East Lansing needs. The long-term recruiting upside against Ohio State and Michigan is… limited. But the hire makes sense for a program that desperately needed adults in the room.

Cultural cleanup after back-to-back scandals, ceiling of “Northwestern-style overachiever” in the new Big Ten, and long-term recruiting upside vs. Ohio State/Michigan.

The Fan Base Meltdowns

These aren’t going well.

Florida — Jon Sumrall (C / B+ / D)

The process was fine. The reaction was not.

Sumrall arrives with Steve Spurrier’s public blessing and a mandate to fix Billy Napier’s in-game disasters. But there’s a red flag worth noting: Sumrall’s Tulane teams were consistently among the most penalized in the country — the kind of undisciplined football that suggests coaching issues, not just player mistakes. Florida fans already wanted a bigger name. The D in sentiment reflects a fan base that feels the program settled.

Spurrier publicly blessing the hire, fixing Napier’s in-game messes, and whether Sumrall can weaponize UF’s NIL/portal machine fast enough in the SEC arms race.

Arkansas — Ryan Silverfield (D+ / D / D)

This is a disaster.

The fan backlash isn’t simmering — it’s boiling over into organized protests. Ryan Silverfield’s task is nearly impossible: win quickly in a 16-team SEC with a hostile home base from Day 1. The AD’s survival odds are now directly tied to Silverfield’s record. D across the board, and that might be generous.

Fan backlash/protests, AD survival odds, and if Silverfield can win quickly enough in the new 16-team SEC to quiet a hostile base.

The Clown Shows

No other way to describe these.

Penn State — TBD (INC / F / F)

The Nittany Lions are bleeding.

James Franklin is gone. The portal is circling. And Penn State is playing leverage games with agents while their roster evaporates in real time. At some point, “waiting for the right guy” becomes “watching your program collapse.” That point may have already passed.

Whether PSU finally swings for a top-5 coach, how Sexton’s leverage games play out, and how long they can sit in limbo without bleeding portal talent.

UAB — TBD (INC / F / F)

The Bill Clark era feels like ancient history now.

Former coach Trent Dilfer gets plenty of blame, but AD Mark Ingram deserves more. Together they torched everything Clark built — the goodwill, the culture, the upward trajectory. All of it gone. Now the job sits open and nobody wants it. This isn’t a “hidden gem” search. It’s a punchline. Stadium and resources exist on paper, but the dysfunction has made this one of the least attractive openings in the country.

How attractive the job really is post-Dilfer, stadium/resources vs. recent chaos, and whether UAB leans into offense again or buys a culture guy.

Still on the Board

These jobs remain open. Grades pending.

California (INC / B / B) — Cal’s identity crisis continues. Do they want academics or football? The ACC move demands an answer.

UConn (INC / C+ / C) — Independence is lonely. The next hire determines whether UConn commits to regional recruiting or another failed “national” vision.

North Texas (INC / C / C) — Serial resets in Denton. UNT needs to pick an offensive identity and stick with it.

Coastal Carolina (INC / B– / B–) — The post-Chadwell slump continues. Another spread-option innovator, or something different?

South Florida (INC / B / B) — Golesh left equity in the roster. USF has a window before FSU/UF/Miami clean up their messes.

Memphis (INC / B / B) — The Tigers launch coaches. The question is whether they want another launchpad guy or someone who stays.

The Bottom Line

Thirteen hires graded. Eight more coming.

The best hire so far? Virginia Tech landing James Franklin changes the ACC. The worst situation? Arkansas — and it’s not close.

We’ll revisit these grades in-season. Some will age like wine. Others will age like milk.

The carousel keeps spinning.

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COACHES HOT SEAT: WEEK 13 RANKINGS

Mark Haines on November 18, 2025

The clock just hit midnight on college football’s struggling coaches.

No more “next year” promises. No more “we’re close” platitudes. Week 12 stripped away the illusions and exposed the reality: some programs are moving forward, and others are circling the drain.

Jonathan Smith is 0-7 in Big Ten play. Shane Beamer blew a 27-point halftime lead in the most catastrophic collapse of the season. Mike Norvell’s Florida State is 2-12 in ACC games over two years. Bill Belichick is 0-5 against Power Four opponents in his first college season.

Athletic directors are done selling hope to angry donors. Boosters are done writing checks for mediocrity. The portal opens in three weeks, and players are already making decisions about their futures.

This is where coaching careers get defined—or destroyed.

Here are the ten coaches who entered Week 12 with everything to prove and nothing left to hide behind.

1. Jonathan Smith – Michigan State Spartans (3-7, 0-7 Big Ten)

Jonathan Smith’s seat isn’t just hot anymore. It’s molten.

Michigan State lost to Penn State 28-10 at home Saturday, marking their seventh straight defeat and officially eliminating the Spartans from bowl eligibility. That’s four consecutive seasons without a bowl game and an 0-7 Big Ten record that has Smith at 8-12 overall since arriving from Oregon State.

The numbers: Michigan State owes Smith approximately $32-33 million if they fire him now. That’s one of the most expensive buyouts in the Big Ten. However, the AD and university president, both hired after Smith arrived, have no strong ties to him and are facing mounting pressure to act.

National media outlets universally place Smith at the top of coaching hot seat lists. Fan sentiment has turned nearly uniform in calling for a change. Replacement candidate discussions are already widespread.

Smith will almost certainly coach Michigan State’s final two games, but barring a miracle turnaround, he’s coaching for his next job, not this one.

2. Mike Locksley – Maryland Terrapins (4-6, 1-6 Big Ten)

Mike Locksley just got saved by the very problem that’s destroying college football programs: money.

Maryland announced Sunday that Locksley will return for 2026 despite a six-game losing streak that dropped the Terrapins from 4-0 to 4-6. It’s the second straight season with only one Big Ten win and the 11th consecutive losing season in conference play. Locksley is now 37-47 overall at Maryland and 17-46 in Big Ten games since 2019.

Athletic Director Jim Smith made the decision based on financial reality. Maryland’s athletic department has lost $32.7 million over the past five years. Locksley’s buyout would be $13.4 million. Smith told ESPN the school is “better off pouring already-spent money into building the roster than into bringing in a new coaching staff.”

Translation: We can’t afford to fire him.

The announcement came after “Fire Locksley” chants broke out in the student section during the Indiana game. Locksley’s pressure doesn’t disappear just because he’s surviving 2025. He’s coaching on borrowed time in 2026, and everyone knows it.

3. Shane Beamer – South Carolina Gamecocks (3-7, 1-7 SEC)

Shane Beamer just orchestrated the most spectacular coaching collapse of the 2025 season.

Saturday at Texas A&M, South Carolina led 30-3 at halftime. Then came the second half. Texas A&M scored 28 unanswered points. South Carolina was shut out and managed just 76 total yards after halftime. Final score: 31-30, Aggies. It was the largest comeback in Texas A&M program history.

ESPN’s Paul Finebaum summed it up perfectly: “Shane Beamer right now just looks like a loser.”

South Carolina is now 3-7 and guaranteed a losing season. They’ve lost five straight SEC games and will miss a bowl game for the first time under Beamer. “Fire Beamer” chants have replaced the cheers.

Here’s the financial nightmare: South Carolina extended Beamer through 2030 less than a year ago. His buyout is approximately $27.9 million. Athletic Director Jeremiah Donati is now stuck with one of college football’s most expensive mistakes.

This type of historic collapse changes everything. It’s not just that they lost. It’s HOW they lost.

4. Mike Norvell – Florida State Seminoles (5-5, 2-5 ACC)

Mike Norvell just won a game and it doesn’t matter.

Florida State beat Virginia Tech 34-14 Saturday to improve to 5-5, but the win came against a 3-7 Hokies team that’s almost as bad as the Seminoles. Since being controversially left out of the 2023 College Football Playoff at 13-0, Florida State is 7-15 overall and 2-12 in ACC play.

Athletic Director Michael Alford announced in October that Norvell would remain through the end of 2025, but promised a “comprehensive assessment” after the season. Translation: Norvell is coaching his final games at Florida State.

Here’s why the delay: Money. Norvell’s buyout is approximately $53.3 million after this season. It’s the second-largest buyout in college football history.

Norvell has tried to project confidence, delivering a six-minute “championship expectation” rant recently. The problem is the results. FSU is winless on the road this season and hasn’t won a road game since November 2023.

5. Derek Mason – Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders (2-8, 1-5 Conference USA)

Derek Mason took a sabbatical from coaching after the 2022 season to rest, reflect, and spend time with family.

He should have stayed on sabbatical.

Mason is in his second season at Middle Tennessee and the program has regressed under his leadership. The Blue Raiders went 3-9 in his first year, and they’re currently 2-8 in 2025. That’s 5-17 overall and 3-11 in conference play across two seasons.

Mason replaced Rick Stockstill, who went 113-111 over 18 seasons with 10 bowl appearances. Mason hasn’t come close to matching that standard. Middle Tennessee’s two wins this season came against FCS opponents. Every FBS opponent has beaten them, often badly.

The defense, which should be Mason’s calling card, ranks among the worst in all of college football. Mason’s overall head coaching record is now 30-64 across eight years. At some point, MTSU has to ask if this experiment is worth continuing.

6. Dave Aranda – Baylor Bears (5-5, 3-4 Big 12)

Dave Aranda isn’t getting fired this season, but not for the reasons you’d hope.

After Saturday’s 55-28 home humiliation against Utah, Aranda sits at 5-5 overall and desperately needs one win in the final two games to make a bowl. His defense ranks second-worst in the Big 12 in both scoring and rush defense. For a defensive specialist hired specifically for his defensive expertise, that’s a damning indictment.

Here’s the number that matters most: 21-25. That’s Aranda’s record at Baylor with his own recruits, excluding the COVID season and the 2021 championship season built on Matt Rhule’s inherited roster.

However, Aranda is still employed because athletic director Mack Rhoades took a leave of absence November 12 amid an ongoing investigation. Interim ADs don’t make coaching changes of this magnitude.

It’s not merit. It’s institutional paralysis.

7. Luke Fickell – Wisconsin Badgers (5-6, 3-5 Big Ten)

Luke Fickell went from College Football Playoff coach to coaching for his job in three years.

After leading Cincinnati to the CFP in 2021, Fickell was hired by Wisconsin with enormous expectations. Instead, Wisconsin has regressed. Fickell is now 16-19 overall at Wisconsin and 9-15 in Big Ten play. His teams have produced losing records in two of three full seasons.

The Badgers went scoreless in back-to-back games against Iowa and Ohio State earlier this season, marking the first time that has happened since 1977. Wisconsin hasn’t won a Big Ten home game in over a calendar year.

Here’s the ironic twist: Fickell just received a contract extension through 2032 and a public vote of confidence from AD Chris McIntosh. His buyout is estimated to be around $27.5 million.

Wisconsin is on track for its second straight losing season after 22 consecutive bowl appearances. Fickell gets 2026 to prove he can turn it around, but the pressure will be immense from Day One.

8. Bill Belichick – North Carolina Tar Heels (4-6, 2-4 ACC)

The greatest football coach in history is learning that college football is a different game.

Bill Belichick, winner of six Super Bowls with the Patriots, arrived at North Carolina with enormous fanfare. Instead, he’s 4-6 overall and 0-5 against Power Four opponents. UNC’s losses weren’t just defeats. They were blowouts that exposed fundamental problems with Belichick’s transition to college football.

“It’s an unstructured mess,” a source told WRAL News in October. Reports emerged that Belichick hadn’t “had a conversation with most of the guys on defense.” The Tar Heels rank last in the ACC in total offense and scoring.

At 72 years old, in his first college job ever, Belichick is discovering that recruiting 18-year-olds, managing NIL, and coaching the portal era requires skills he never needed in the NFL.

UNC’s administration sold fans on Belichick, leading them to the playoffs. Instead, they’re fighting for bowl eligibility and dealing with reports of organizational chaos.

9. Justin Wilcox – California Golden Bears (6-4, 3-3 ACC)

Justin Wilcox sits at 6-4 overall and 3-3 in ACC play, a respectable first season navigating conference realignment.

But the pressure has never been higher.

Fan sentiment has turned decisively against Wilcox, with widespread calls for his dismissal dominating the Cal community. This isn’t about the record. It’s about nine years of incremental progress that never accumulates into sustained success.

Then there’s Ron Rivera. Cal’s new General Manager has given Wilcox conditional support, stating that “another victory or two” in the final stretch will be key in determining his future. That’s not a vote of confidence. That’s measured pressure from above.

When your GM says your fate depends on winning one or two games in a 6-4 season, you’re coaching under scrutiny from fans who’ve already moved on and leadership that’s watching closely.

10. Mark Stoops – Kentucky Wildcats (5-5, 2-5 SEC)

Mark Stoops just beat Tennessee Tech 42-10 Saturday, extending Kentucky’s winning streak to four games.

And his pressure level hasn’t budged an inch.

The win over an FCS opponent was expected, and while Stoops praised “this team’s attitude and effort,” beating Tennessee Tech doesn’t change the fundamental calculus around his job security. Fan sentiment remains sharply divided.

What protects Stoops isn’t the four-game winning streak. It’s the $40.5 million buyout that must be paid in full within 60 days if he’s fired. After critical wins at Auburn and over Florida, AD Mitch Barnhart voiced full support, saying Kentucky is “taking steps” back up the mountain.

Kentucky sits one win away from bowl eligibility with two games remaining. The pressure at #10 reflects this: the four-game streak has eased the immediate crisis, but beating an FCS team doesn’t resolve long-term doubts.

WANT TO SEE WHERE YOUR COACH RANKS?

The top 10 are racing against the clock.

But coaching pressure doesn’t stop at #10. A $40.5 million buyout protects Mark Stoops (#10) despite 13 years of middling results. Justin Wilcox (#9) is 6-4 but facing conditional support from his GM. Luke Fickell (#7) just got extended through 2032 despite losing 9 of his last 14 games.

Every FBS coach is ranked based on actual pressure, not speculation about who might be fired.

Subscribers to our newsletter get the full story. Each week, you’ll receive comprehensive profiles of all the top 10 coaches with contract details, buyout numbers, replacement candidates, and insider analysis you won’t find anywhere else. Additionally, our weekly Hot Seat Deep Dive provides an in-depth examination of one coach’s situation. This week: Dave Aranda at Baylor – how administrative chaos became a coaching lifeline, and why institutional paralysis might be the only thing keeping him employed.

Subscribe here to get the complete analysis delivered to your inbox every week.

Want to know where your coach stands? View rankings of all 136 FBS coaches.

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Week 12 Coaches Hot Seat Rankings

Mark Haines on November 10, 2025

Week 11 exposed the pretenders. Week 12 eliminates them. This is the part of the season where athletic directors stop debating and start deciding. Where donor patience either holds or shatters entirely. Where recruits make final judgments about which programs are ascending and which are circling the drain. The “we’re close to turning the corner” narrative that might have worked in October doesn’t survive November. By Week 12, you either have tangible proof of progress or you’re staring at an offseason coaching search. Buyout conversations move from theoretical to tactical. Board meetings shift from “let’s give him more time” to “what’s our exit strategy?” Week 12 separates the coaches who survive the season from those who won’t make it to December. And for these ten coaches? The clock is ticking louder than ever.

1. Jonathan Smith, Michigan State

Jonathan Smith remains at #1, and the situation in East Lansing has moved from crisis to terminal. The $33M+ buyout that once seemed prohibitive is now just a number that major donors are actively working to fund. His 8-13 record isn’t just bad, it’s a complete program collapse that’s destroying Michigan State’s identity. New AD J Batt inherited this disaster and faces mounting pressure to act. Recruiting has gone from struggling to nonexistent, with elite prospects avoiding East Lansing entirely. The fan base has moved past anger into total apathy, which is the real death sentence. The question isn’t whether Smith gets fired, it’s when.

2. Mike Locksley, Maryland

Mike Locksley holds at #2, but that strong 2025 recruiting class that was his lifeline is starting to crack. Commits are taking visits elsewhere, and the locker room remains completely fractured. His 37-46 overall record tells the story of six years without real progress in the Big Ten. Fourth quarter collapses continue, and fans have stopped showing up expecting anything different. Donor support has evaporated completely, with major boosters now openly discussing replacement options. The administration’s hesitation is about the competitive coaching market, not confidence in Locksley. One more collapse and it’s over.

3. Mike Norvell, Florida State

Mike Norvell stays at #3, still clinging to the thin margin of player support that’s kept him employed. The $55M+ buyout remains the primary obstacle, but FSU is already planning for 2026 when it becomes more manageable. His 37-32 record would be fine elsewhere, but FSU expects championships, not mediocrity. Fan skepticism continues to grow as the season progresses. That Wake Forest win bought time, but not much. Another embarrassing loss puts him right back at #1.

4. Derek Mason, Middle Tennessee

Derek Mason enters the Top 10 at #4 with a catastrophic 4-17 record over two seasons. This is complete program collapse, not a rebuilding project. His SEC pedigree from Vanderbilt hasn’t translated, and the offense ranks near the bottom nationally. Donor support is gone, attendance at Floyd Stadium is embarrassing, and recruiting is nonexistent. Elite Conference USA prospects are choosing other programs because nobody wants to commit to obvious instability. The administration is trapped between Mason’s contract and the reality that every game does more damage. This isn’t a hot seat, it’s a death watch.

5. Luke Fickell, Wisconsin

Luke Fickell drops to #5, but the heat hasn’t decreased at all. All the goodwill from Cincinnati is completely gone after a 16-19 start in Madison. Wisconsin fans are openly questioning whether hiring Fickell was a massive mistake. The offense looks lost, the defense looks confused, and the administration’s demands for “foundational change” are ultimatums, not suggestions. Recruiting has flatlined, with elite Midwest prospects now choosing programs like Iowa and Minnesota over Wisconsin. Donors are calculating buyout scenarios and floating replacement names. His $7.625M salary looked smart when everyone expected success. Now it looks like an expensive anchor.

6. Justin Wilcox, California

Justin Wilcox remains at #6 as Cal’s situation reaches existential crisis levels. Nine years and a 48-54 record, with the ACC move exposing every weakness instead of creating opportunities. Fourth quarter collapses define the program now, and fans plan around expecting defeat. The real crisis is financial, donors have completely checked out and stopped funding the program. Recruiting has stagnated to the point where Cal loses battles to Mountain West schools. The administration isn’t asking whether to fire Wilcox anymore. They’re asking bigger questions about whether Cal football at this level is sustainable. That’s far more dangerous.

7. Bill Belichick, North Carolina

Bill Belichick at #7 represents the most stunning collapse of expectations in college football. Six Super Bowl rings have produced a 4-5 record that has fans mocking a hire they celebrated months ago. One Power Four win, uncertain bowl eligibility, and a coaching style built for NFL professionals that doesn’t work with teenagers. Elite recruits visit once and immediately look elsewhere. His $10M salary looked brilliant when everyone expected immediate success, now it prevents necessary program investments. The administration is losing patience and credibility with donors who expected a revolution. Every game does more recruiting damage. The experiment is failing in real time.

8. Shane Beamer, South Carolina

Shane Beamer drops to #8 after mid-season coordinator firings that were pure desperation. His 32-28 record looks fine until you remember South Carolina expects SEC competitiveness, not fighting for bowl eligibility. The firings bought time but fixed nothing fundamental. Bowl eligibility has moved from goal to survival requirement, the minimum needed to keep his job. Booster support is now conditional, demanding actual results instead of energy and South Carolina ties. Recruiting is suffering as elite prospects watch the chaos and commit elsewhere. The administration has loaded the gun. Anything less than a bowl game and he’s done.

9. Dave Aranda, Baylor

Dave Aranda falls to #9, and the shine from that 2021 Big 12 Championship has completely worn off. His 36-34 record through six seasons isn’t disastrous, it’s just deeply uninspiring for a program that expects more. Aranda wins just enough games to avoid the hot seat entirely, but never enough to generate real momentum or championship buzz. The fan base has moved from “trust the process” to “what exactly is the process?” as another mediocre season unfolds. Recruiting has slowed as elite Texas prospects look for programs with clearer upward trajectories. Aranda’s defensive expertise was supposed to be the foundation for sustained success, but it hasn’t translated into consistent winning. The remaining games will determine whether Baylor sees enough to commit long-term or starts exploring other options.

10. Mark Stoops, Kentucky

Mark Stoops barely holds #10 after one Auburn win bought temporary relief from what felt like inevitable disaster. His 81-78 record through 13 seasons is both Kentucky’s most successful era ever and clear evidence of a program that’s hit its ceiling. Multi-year SEC losing streaks and repeated blowouts have created frustration throughout the program. The real problem? Kentucky would owe Stoops nearly $38 million if they fired him after this season, and the contract requires the full amount be paid within 60 days. That’s not just expensive, it’s functionally impossible for Kentucky’s athletic budget. Stoops is essentially untouchable no matter how the season ends. The remaining games aren’t about his job security, they’re about whether another year of known limitations is acceptable. Thirteen years of evidence suggests he’s taken Kentucky as far as he can.

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Week 11 – Coaches Hot Seat Rankings

Mark Haines on November 4, 2025

Week 11 is where the pretenders get exposed.

This is the part of the season where the rubber meets the road. Where your team and your staff prove they’ve “got it” – or don’t. The early-season excuses are gone. The “we’re still figuring things out” narrative doesn’t fly anymore. By Week 11, you either have a culture that wins close games, a roster that believes in the system, and donors who are writing checks – or you’re watching your career circle the drain in real-time. This is where coaches earn their next contract or start quietly updating their resumes. This is where athletic directors stop taking “we’ll turn it around” phone calls and start having very different conversations. Week 11 separates the programs that are building something real from those that are just delaying the inevitable. And for these ten coaches? We break each situation down below:

1. Jonathan Smith, Michigan State

Jonathan Smith is sitting on a $33M-$37M buyout that’s paid out over 62 monthly installments – the kind of number that makes firing him financially painful but not impossible. The problem? He’s already lost his fan base after humiliating losses, recruiting is cratering, and donors are hesitant to continue funding a sinking ship. New AD J Batt inherited this mess and now faces a massive decision to either force Smith to turn it around immediately or mobilize donors to eat the buyout and start over. Michigan State isn’t just losing games – they’re losing their identity. Every day Smith remains in place is another day that elite recruits look elsewhere.

2. Mike Locksley, Maryland

Mike Locksley has lost the locker room, and everyone knows it. NIL chaos has players checked out, fourth-quarter collapses have become routine, and October was an unmitigated disaster that had fans chanting for his firing in the stadium. His seat is scorching, #2 on the hot seat rankings, but he’s got one lifeline: a legitimately strong 2025 recruiting class that’s making the administration hesitate before pulling the trigger. The job market is also flooded with high-profile openings, which might give him a reprieve simply because Maryland doesn’t want to get into a bidding war and strike out. But make no mistake: donor support is evaporating, administration confidence is gone, and Locksley is one more ugly loss away from a Sunday morning firing.

3. Mike Norvell, Florida State

Mike Norvell dropped from #1 to #3 on the hot seat after a win over Wake Forest and enough player support to give the administration cover to hesitate on his $55M+ buyout. But dropping two spots isn’t a victory – it’s a temporary reprieve. He barely survived recent board meetings where his future was debated in real-time, boosters are in open revolt, and fan skepticism is at an all-time high. Behind closed doors, FSU is already planning for 2026 when that buyout becomes more manageable. Questions about fit, contract structure, and whether this marriage ever made sense continue to linger. Norvell bought himself time, but one more blowout loss and he’s right back at #1.

4. Luke Fickell, Wisconsin

Luke Fickell is torching every ounce of goodwill he built at Cincinnati, and it’s happening fast. Multiple blowout losses and a stagnant offense have Wisconsin fans throwing remotes through their TVs, while recruiting momentum has completely flatlined. The administration isn’t just disappointed, they’re demanding foundational change, the kind of language that means “fix this NOW or we’re moving on.” Recent staff decisions have only accelerated skepticism, and fan patience has completely evaporated, with social media ablaze and calling for a reset. The only thing keeping Fickell employed is his buyout, but donors are starting to ask the question every coach dreads: “How much would it actually cost to start over?” One more embarrassing loss, and that buyout begins looking like a bargain.

5. Justin Wilcox, California

Justin Wilcox has mastered the art of losing games in the fourth quarter, and Cal fans have moved past frustration into full acceptance mode. Navigating conference realignment chaos while failing to elevate recruiting has left the program stagnant at a time when adaptation is everything. The death knell? Donors have checked out completely; they’ve stopped writing checks, stopped believing in the vision, and started asking pointed questions about ROI. Doubts about future competitiveness aren’t whispers anymore; they’re loud conversations in booster meetings. Wilcox isn’t just on shaky ground – he’s standing on a fault line, and everyone is waiting for the earthquake.

6. Bill Belichick, North Carolina

Bill Belichick at North Carolina was supposed to be a revolution with six Super Bowl rings, transforming college football. Instead, it’s looking like a very expensive mistake. One Power Four win. Bowl eligibility hanging by a thread. And a coaching style built for NFL veterans that doesn’t translate to 18-year-olds who need recruiting, not drafting. The administration is losing patience fast because elite prospects are looking at UNC and seeing chaos, not a championship pedigree. Recruiting hasn’t improved; it has actually gotten worse. The contract details are murky but undoubtedly expensive, the kind of money that looked brilliant when everyone thought he’d win immediately and catastrophic now that he’s not. The experiment is failing, and everyone is watching to see how quickly UNC pulls the plug.

7. Shane Beamer, South Carolina

Shane Beamer fired his offensive coordinator and offensive line coach mid-season, a desperate move that screams “I’m fighting for my life.” And it might not be enough. Insiders are saying it plainly: unless South Carolina rallies for bowl eligibility, Beamer is done. Booster support is crumbling fast, with the money people who once championed his energy and “South Carolina guy” credentials now demanding answers about results. Pressure is coming from everywhere—fans, administration, donors—all pointing to the same conclusion: the current vision isn’t working. Recruiting is getting massacred by staff instability, because elite prospects don’t commit to programs where coaches are getting fired mid-season and the head coach’s future is a weekly radio debate. Beamer bought himself time with those firings, but bowl eligibility isn’t just a goal anymore—it’s a job requirement.

8. Tim Beck, Coastal Carolina

Tim Beck still has the backing of Coastal Carolina’s administration, thanks to recent bowl appearances, but that institutional patience has an expiration date that’s approaching quickly. Competitive culture is struggling in a Sun Belt where parity is real, and roster retention has become a nightmare in the portal era. Donors aren’t panicking yet, they’re not calling for his head yet, but they’re watching, whispering, and starting to ask the question every coach dreads: “What happens if we miss a bowl game this year?” That’s the line in the sand. Miss the postseason and the conversation changes overnight from “let’s give him more time” to “maybe it’s time for a new direction.” Beck has a lifeline, but it’s fraying fast.

9. Dave Aranda, Baylor

Dave Aranda’s shine has completely worn off at Baylor, and the 2021 Big 12 Championship feels like ancient history. A mediocre record, zero championship buzz, and a fan base that has moved from “trust the process” to “what exactly IS the process?” has the administration and boosters doing more than watching—they’re calculating buyout logistics. That’s not hot seat attention; that’s death row. The donor base is eroding, checking out, and wondering if their money is being invested wisely. Recruiting momentum is slowing to a crawl because elite prospects can smell uncertainty from a mile away. Aranda needs a strong finish, not just bowl eligibility, but something that reminds people why Baylor hired him in the first place. Because right now? Nobody remembers, and that’s the most dangerous position any coach can be in.

10. Mark Stoops, Kentucky

Mark Stoops was this close to being fired before a dramatic win at Auburn bought him a reprieve, but one victory doesn’t erase a multi-year SEC losing streak. Years of being demolished by conference opponents have left Kentucky feeling more like a basketball school’s side project than a legitimate SEC program, and the administration has had legitimate conversations about buyout numbers and replacement candidates. The buyout is sizeable but not insurmountable, meaning if things go south again, Kentucky can afford to move on. Stoops needs two things immediately: roster confidence (players who believe they can compete in the SEC) and donor confidence (boosters who believe their money isn’t being wasted). Both are shaky right now. The remaining games aren’t just about bowl eligibility; they’re about survival, and everyone is watching.

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California (4-2) Hosts North Carolina (2-3) Friday Night: A Brutally Honest Game Preview Of Two Bad Teams Fighting To Prove Who Sucks Less

Mark Haines on October 17, 2025

This is not a game between two good football teams.

Let’s just get that out of the way right now. California (4-2) hosts North Carolina (2-3) on Friday night in Berkeley, and if you’re expecting offensive fireworks or elite defensive play, you’re watching the wrong game. This is a battle between two deeply flawed teams trying to figure out who can avoid embarrassing themselves on national television.

But here’s the thing: it might be wildly entertaining for all the wrong reasons.

Cal Has Perfected The Art Of Creative Losing

If you’ve followed California football for more than five minutes, you know they’ve invented approximately 47 new ways to lose football games.

They are the masters of creative catastrophe.

  • Lost 0-34 to San Diego State (a team that went 3-9 last year)
  • Got shutout at home… by a Mountain West team
  • Scored 21 points against Duke and still lost by 24
  • Beat an FCS team and act like they’re playoff contenders

The Golden Bears are the team that will drive 90 yards down the field, get inside the 5-yard line, and then somehow throw three consecutive incompletions to settle for a field goal. Or miss it. They’ll probably miss it.

This is Cal football, baby.

Bill Belichick’s Offense Is A Dumpster Fire

Meanwhile, North Carolina hired the greatest coach in NFL history and somehow made their offense worse.

The Tar Heels are averaging 11 points per game against Power 5 opponents.

Let that sink in for a second. Eleven. That’s not a typo. That’s not adjusted for pace or advanced metrics. That’s just… pathetically bad football. Here’s what UNC has accomplished this season:

  • Scored 14 points against TCU (lost by 34)
  • Scored 9 points against UCF (yes, nine)
  • Scored 10 points against Clemson
  • Beat FCS Richmond and think they’re back

The Belichick Era in Chapel Hill has been one long, painful lesson in “NFL schemes don’t work in college when you have college players.” Their offense is so dysfunctional it makes Cal’s creative losing look competent by comparison.

And that’s saying something.

The Matchups Are Hilariously One-Sided

Let’s talk about what happens when these two teams play each other.

California’s mediocre offense versus North Carolina’s terrible defense:

Cal should score. Their freshman quarterback threw for 279 yards and three touchdowns against Minnesota. UNC’s defense allows 70.3% completions (one of the worst in FBS) and gives up 40 points per game to Power 5 teams. Even Cal’s inconsistent passing attack should move the ball.

The problem? Cal also got shut out by San Diego State, so who the hell knows?

North Carolina’s abysmal offense versus California’s decent defense:

This is where the game gets decided. UNC can’t score against anyone with a pulse. Cal’s defense ranks 32nd nationally in scoring defense and should absolutely dominate this matchup. The only question is whether UNC scores 7 or 10 points before the clock hits zero.

The special teams and coaching edges:

  • Cal has an All-America return specialist (advantage: Cal)
  • Cal had a bye week to prepare (advantage: Cal)
  • Cal plays at home at 10:30pm ET (advantage: Cal)
  • Bill Belichick has eight Super Bowl rings (advantage: doesn’t matter, his offense stinks)

Everything favors California except for one tiny detail: they’re California, and they specialize in losing games they should win.

Why Cal Should Win (But Might Not)

Here’s the rational, data-driven case for why California wins this game by two touchdowns.

The numbers don’t lie:

  • Home field advantage + late-night body clock game
  • UNC’s offense is historically bad (119th in scoring nationally)
  • Cal’s defense can shut down UNC’s dysfunction
  • UNC is 0-3 against Power 5 teams with a -29 point average margin
  • Cal had extra week to prepare and gameplan

If you run this game through a computer simulation 100 times, Cal probably wins 75 of them. They’re better at almost every position. Their quarterback is inconsistent but still better than whatever UNC is running out there. Their defense is competent. They’re playing at home.

They should cruise to a 24-10 victory.

Why Cal Could Still Lose (Because They’re Cal)

But then you remember: this is California football.

And California football is chaos incarnate.

The Golden Bears have a unique talent for finding new and inventive ways to lose games they should win. Maybe their freshman QB throws four interceptions. Maybe they fumble on their own 10-yard line three times. Maybe Bill Belichick conjures up some dark NFL sorcery that confuses everyone.

Here are the ways this goes sideways:

  • Cal’s offense reverts to “San Diego State shutout” mode
  • Freshman QB makes 2-3 catastrophic mistakes
  • Red zone failures turn TDs into field goals (or misses)
  • Belichick’s desperate game plan actually works for once
  • The universe decides Cal fans don’t deserve nice things

The probability? Maybe 25%.

But that 25% is real. Cal could absolutely blow this. They’ve blown easier games. They’re probably drawing up the blueprint for how to blow this one right now.

The Real Prediction

California 24, North Carolina 10

Cal’s defense holds UNC to one garbage-time touchdown and a field goal. Cal’s offense does just enough against UNC’s awful pass defense to score three touchdowns (probably). The home crowd gets loud. The body clock matters. Bill Belichick looks confused on the sideline, wondering why his NFL plays don’t work in college.

This is the most likely outcome.

But if you’re betting the house on this game, maybe reconsider. Because Cal is involved, and Cal specializes in making their fans suffer in new and creative ways. They could win 31-7. They could lose 20-23 on a last-second field goal after blowing a 17-point lead.

That’s the beauty and terror of California football.

What To Watch For

If you’re actually going to watch this Friday night disaster, here’s what matters:

  • First 10 minutes: Does Cal’s offense move the ball easily against UNC’s defense? If yes, this game is over.
  • UNC’s first red zone trip: Can they score a TD or do they settle for a FG? (Spoiler: they’ll probably fail entirely)
  • Cal’s turnover count: If the freshman QB throws 2+ picks, UNC has a chance
  • Third quarter adjustments: Does Belichick have anything creative? (Narrator: he does not)

The over/under will probably be around 44 points. Hammer the under. Both teams stink at scoring. Both teams will settle for field goals in the red zone. Both teams will punt 12 times.

This game hits 34 total points and everyone goes home disappointed.

The Bottom Line

California should win this game because North Carolina’s offense is one of the worst in college football.

That’s it. That’s the analysis.

UNC can’t score against decent defenses. Cal has a decent defense. Math says Cal wins. But Cal also has a proud tradition of defying math and finding spectacular new ways to lose, so bring popcorn and prepare for chaos.

Final prediction: Cal 24, UNC 10 (with 40% confidence that something weirder happens)

Welcome to Friday night Pac-12… wait, ACC… wait, who even knows anymore? This is college football in 2025, where nothing makes sense and the points don’t matter unless you’re betting the under.

Enjoy the trainwreck.

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Week 8 — Coaches Hot Seat Rankings

Mark Haines on October 14, 2025

Three coaches were fired on Sunday.

Trent Dilfer. James Franklin. Trent Bray.

Gone.

When coaches start falling in October, everyone else feels it. The phone calls start. The quiet meetings happen. The pressure that was already there gets cranked up to a whole new level.

Here are the 10 coaches under the most pressure in college football right now:

1. Billy Napier, Florida (SEC)

Trent Dilfer got fired Sunday with a 3-4 record.

Billy Napier is 21-23 at Florida. One upset over Texas doesn’t erase years of mediocrity. The Gators are paying him $7 million to compete for bowl eligibility while Georgia and Alabama compete for championships.

That’s unacceptable at Florida.

2. Hugh Freeze, Auburn (SEC)

Hugh Freeze came to Auburn with a redemption story.

A second chance after Ole Miss. Auburn gave him big money, full control, everything he needed to compete. The pressure is mounting because it’s not working.

Right now, Auburn isn’t competing.

3. Mike Norvell, Florida State (ACC)

Florida State hasn’t won an ACC game since November 2023.

Fifteen straight conference losses. Two full seasons. Zero ACC wins.

Mike Norvell went from 13-1 ACC Champions to unwatchable in less than a year.

FSU beat Florida earlier this season, and the media acted like they were “back.” They’re not—they’re 0-2 in ACC play. Norvell has had two years to figure out how to win in the ACC.

At Florida State, that’s unacceptable.

4. Jeff Choate, Nevada (Mountain West)

Jeff Choate is 4-15 at Nevada.

What worked at Montana State isn’t translating to the FBS level. Choate talks about tough, physical football, but Nevada is getting pushed around. The problem isn’t philosophy—it’s execution.

Choate is running out of time.

5. Joe Moorhead, Akron (MAC)

Joe Moorhead is 10-33 at Akron.

Elite offensive coordinator at previous stops. Winner at Fordham. But the Zips move the ball, rack up yards, then stall in the red zone—that’s coaching.

A 10-33 record over four years tells the story.

6. Luke Fickell, Wisconsin (Big Ten)

Luke Fickell was supposed to save Wisconsin football.

Wisconsin gave him everything—big money, full control, time to install his system. The defense has regressed, the offense looks disjointed, and the Big Ten is exposing every weakness. Wisconsin fans don’t want to hear about systems—they want wins.

Fickell isn’t meeting the Wisconsin standard yet.

7. Butch Jones, Arkansas State (Sun Belt)

Butch Jones failed at Tennessee.

Now he’s failing at Arkansas State. The Red Wolves are underperforming, players aren’t buying in, and fans aren’t showing up. Arkansas State thought Jones learned from his Tennessee mistakes.

The results suggest otherwise.

8. Justin Wilcox, California (ACC)

Cal got a fresh start with the move to the ACC.

New conference. New competition. New expectations. And here’s the number that matters: 8 wins.

That’s what Justin Wilcox needs to keep his job.

Look at what’s left on the schedule:

  • North Carolina
  • At Virginia Tech
  • Ranked Virginia
  • At Louisville
  • At Stanford
  • SMU

Six games—Cal needs to win five of them.

Wilcox is supposed to be a defensive guru who maximizes limited resources. But the Bears are getting manhandled by ACC competition—the defense can’t stop anyone, the offense can’t score. The math isn’t mathing.

Cal has a new chancellor—an alum, Class of ’83.

They hired Ron Rivera, NFL veteran head coach, as General Manager overseeing the football program. ESPN’s Gameday came to Berkeley last season. Everyone saw the potential. Cal has poured money and resources into this program—and they’re expecting results.

Can Willcox get the Golden Bears to 8 regular-season wins?

9. Sonny Cumbie, Louisiana Tech (C-USA)

Sonny Cumbie was supposed to bring offensive firepower to Louisiana Tech.

The Air Raid disciple. The Texas Tech coordinator everyone wanted to hire. But coordinating and head coaching are two completely different jobs—the offense has been inconsistent, the defense worse, and the program feels directionless.

Coordinator success doesn’t automatically translate to head coaching success.

10. Derek Mason, Middle Tennessee (C-USA)

Derek Mason is 4-14 at Middle Tennessee.

He’s a defensive coach in an era where offense wins championships. Mason is building a 2005 program in 2025, and Middle Tennessee can barely crack 20 points per game. MTSU fans are asking: What exactly are we getting better at?

If the answer is “nothing,” the pressure builds.

The Bottom Line:

Three coaches got fired this week—more will follow.

Athletic directors are making calls. Boosters are applying pressure. Coaches who thought they were safe realize they’re not.

Want the full picture?

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Because pressure is a ranking—and everyone’s being measured.

Check out the complete 136 FBS Coaches Hot Seat Rankings.

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Clemson Is 1-3 And Desperate. North Carolina Can’t Score. Here’s Why Saturday’s ACC Matchup Will Be Ugly—And Why Clemson Wins Anyway

Mark Haines on October 3, 2025

Saturday’s ACC matchup is the college football equivalent of two drowning men fighting over a life vest.

Clemson entered 2025 as a conference championship favorite. North Carolina hired Bill Belichick—the greatest NFL coach of all time—to transform their program. Four games in, both teams are disasters. Clemson is 1-3 and reeling. UNC is 2-2 and can’t score points if their lives depended on it. One of these teams will emerge victorious. The other will spiral deeper into crisis mode.

Let me break down what the numbers reveal about both teams and why this game matters more than you might think.

Clemson: The Preseason Darling That Face-Planted

The Tigers were expected to compete for ACC titles and College Football Playoff spots.

Instead, they’ve lost three straight games and look completely lost. Their offense averages 365.3 yards per game—not terrible on paper, but they’re scoring just 18 points per game in losses. That’s the problem. Moving the ball doesn’t matter if you can’t finish drives. They’re turning the ball over 1.8 times per game while forcing only 1.3 takeaways. That -0.5 turnover margin is killing them. Their losses tell the whole story: 10-17 to LSU, 21-24 to Georgia Tech, and 21-34 to Syracuse. The only game they won was an underwhelming 27-16 victory over Troy.

Here’s what’s working:

  • Passing game: 249 yards per game, 1.5 TDs
  • Defense: Allowing 362 yards per game (solid, not spectacular)
  • Yards per play: 5.7 (respectable efficiency)

Here’s what’s broken:

  • Red zone execution: Can’t punch it in when it matters
  • Turnover battle: Losing it badly
  • Rushing attack: Just 116.3 yards per game, 1 TD per game
  • Confidence: Three straight losses will do that

This is a team with talent that’s completely underperforming expectations.

North Carolina: Bill Belichick Learns College Football Is Different

The Belichick hiring was supposed to change everything.

It hasn’t. UNC’s offense is an absolute train wreck—263.5 total yards per game. That’s not “struggling.” That’s historically bad for a Power 4 conference team. They’re averaging a pathetic 4.9 yards per play. For context, that’s the kind of efficiency you’d expect from a bottom-tier Group of 5 program. Their passing game generates just 150 yards per game. Their running game isn’t much better at 113.5 yards. They score 1.3 passing touchdowns per game and 1 rushing touchdown. Do the math: that’s 2.3 total touchdowns per game.

The losses are ugly:

  • TCU demolished them 48-14
  • UCF embarrassed them 34-9
  • Their two wins came against Charlotte (20-3) and Richmond (41-6)

Translation: They beat two teams they should have destroyed, but got destroyed by anyone decent.

The defense is actually better than you’d think—allowing 344.5 yards per game, which is actually superior to Clemson’s defense. But when your offense can’t sustain drives or score points, it doesn’t matter how well your defense plays. They’re even in the turnover battle at 0.0 per game, which means they’re not creating extra possessions to compensate for their offensive ineptitude.

Belichick is learning that NFL coaching genius doesn’t automatically translate when your quarterback can’t complete passes and your skill players can’t make plays.

The Matchup: Where Clemson Should Dominate

This game comes down to one simple fact: Clemson is better everywhere.

Their offense generates 101.8 more yards per game than North Carolina’s offense. Their 5.7 yards per play crushes UNC’s 4.9. Even though both defenses are similar, Clemson’s desperation, combined with the challenge of facing UNC’s anemic offense, creates the perfect storm for them to finally get back on track. North Carolina has shown zero ability to score against competent opponents. Clemson is competent. Barely, but competent.

The key advantages for Clemson:

  • Offensive firepower: They move the ball consistently
  • Efficiency edge: 0.8 yards per play advantage
  • Desperation: They NEED this win to salvage their season
  • Matchup: UNC can’t score on anyone

Where UNC could surprise:

  • Home field advantage
  • Clemson’s turnover problems continue
  • Belichick schemes something unexpected

But let’s be honest—UNC’s offense is too broken for any of that to matter.

My Prediction: Clemson 31, North Carolina 14

Clemson wins, and it’s not close.

They’re playing a team that averages 11.5 points in losses and can barely move the football. Even with Clemson’s struggles, they have too much talent and too much desperation to lose this game. They’ll control possession, limit UNC’s already-limited scoring opportunities, and finally find the end zone enough times to win comfortably. North Carolina will score one touchdown on a broken play or short field, add a field goal or garbage-time score, and otherwise look completely overmatched.

The real story isn’t who wins this game.

The real story is what happens next. Clemson gets a much-needed confidence boost but remains far below preseason expectations. They’re not competing for championships—they’re just trying to make a bowl game at this point. For North Carolina, this loss (and it will be a loss) raises serious questions about whether Belichick can actually fix this mess. NFL coaching legends don’t mean anything in college football if you can’t recruit, develop talent, and put together a functional offensive system.

Saturday’s game is must-watch television for all the wrong reasons—two disappointing teams desperately trying not to drown.

One will survive. The other will sink deeper.

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