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Week 12 Coaches Hot Seat Rankings

Mark Haines on November 10, 2025

Week 11 exposed the pretenders. Week 12 eliminates them. This is the part of the season where athletic directors stop debating and start deciding. Where donor patience either holds or shatters entirely. Where recruits make final judgments about which programs are ascending and which are circling the drain. The “we’re close to turning the corner” narrative that might have worked in October doesn’t survive November. By Week 12, you either have tangible proof of progress or you’re staring at an offseason coaching search. Buyout conversations move from theoretical to tactical. Board meetings shift from “let’s give him more time” to “what’s our exit strategy?” Week 12 separates the coaches who survive the season from those who won’t make it to December. And for these ten coaches? The clock is ticking louder than ever.

1. Jonathan Smith, Michigan State

Jonathan Smith remains at #1, and the situation in East Lansing has moved from crisis to terminal. The $33M+ buyout that once seemed prohibitive is now just a number that major donors are actively working to fund. His 8-13 record isn’t just bad, it’s a complete program collapse that’s destroying Michigan State’s identity. New AD J Batt inherited this disaster and faces mounting pressure to act. Recruiting has gone from struggling to nonexistent, with elite prospects avoiding East Lansing entirely. The fan base has moved past anger into total apathy, which is the real death sentence. The question isn’t whether Smith gets fired, it’s when.

2. Mike Locksley, Maryland

Mike Locksley holds at #2, but that strong 2025 recruiting class that was his lifeline is starting to crack. Commits are taking visits elsewhere, and the locker room remains completely fractured. His 37-46 overall record tells the story of six years without real progress in the Big Ten. Fourth quarter collapses continue, and fans have stopped showing up expecting anything different. Donor support has evaporated completely, with major boosters now openly discussing replacement options. The administration’s hesitation is about the competitive coaching market, not confidence in Locksley. One more collapse and it’s over.

3. Mike Norvell, Florida State

Mike Norvell stays at #3, still clinging to the thin margin of player support that’s kept him employed. The $55M+ buyout remains the primary obstacle, but FSU is already planning for 2026 when it becomes more manageable. His 37-32 record would be fine elsewhere, but FSU expects championships, not mediocrity. Fan skepticism continues to grow as the season progresses. That Wake Forest win bought time, but not much. Another embarrassing loss puts him right back at #1.

4. Derek Mason, Middle Tennessee

Derek Mason enters the Top 10 at #4 with a catastrophic 4-17 record over two seasons. This is complete program collapse, not a rebuilding project. His SEC pedigree from Vanderbilt hasn’t translated, and the offense ranks near the bottom nationally. Donor support is gone, attendance at Floyd Stadium is embarrassing, and recruiting is nonexistent. Elite Conference USA prospects are choosing other programs because nobody wants to commit to obvious instability. The administration is trapped between Mason’s contract and the reality that every game does more damage. This isn’t a hot seat, it’s a death watch.

5. Luke Fickell, Wisconsin

Luke Fickell drops to #5, but the heat hasn’t decreased at all. All the goodwill from Cincinnati is completely gone after a 16-19 start in Madison. Wisconsin fans are openly questioning whether hiring Fickell was a massive mistake. The offense looks lost, the defense looks confused, and the administration’s demands for “foundational change” are ultimatums, not suggestions. Recruiting has flatlined, with elite Midwest prospects now choosing programs like Iowa and Minnesota over Wisconsin. Donors are calculating buyout scenarios and floating replacement names. His $7.625M salary looked smart when everyone expected success. Now it looks like an expensive anchor.

6. Justin Wilcox, California

Justin Wilcox remains at #6 as Cal’s situation reaches existential crisis levels. Nine years and a 48-54 record, with the ACC move exposing every weakness instead of creating opportunities. Fourth quarter collapses define the program now, and fans plan around expecting defeat. The real crisis is financial, donors have completely checked out and stopped funding the program. Recruiting has stagnated to the point where Cal loses battles to Mountain West schools. The administration isn’t asking whether to fire Wilcox anymore. They’re asking bigger questions about whether Cal football at this level is sustainable. That’s far more dangerous.

7. Bill Belichick, North Carolina

Bill Belichick at #7 represents the most stunning collapse of expectations in college football. Six Super Bowl rings have produced a 4-5 record that has fans mocking a hire they celebrated months ago. One Power Four win, uncertain bowl eligibility, and a coaching style built for NFL professionals that doesn’t work with teenagers. Elite recruits visit once and immediately look elsewhere. His $10M salary looked brilliant when everyone expected immediate success, now it prevents necessary program investments. The administration is losing patience and credibility with donors who expected a revolution. Every game does more recruiting damage. The experiment is failing in real time.

8. Shane Beamer, South Carolina

Shane Beamer drops to #8 after mid-season coordinator firings that were pure desperation. His 32-28 record looks fine until you remember South Carolina expects SEC competitiveness, not fighting for bowl eligibility. The firings bought time but fixed nothing fundamental. Bowl eligibility has moved from goal to survival requirement, the minimum needed to keep his job. Booster support is now conditional, demanding actual results instead of energy and South Carolina ties. Recruiting is suffering as elite prospects watch the chaos and commit elsewhere. The administration has loaded the gun. Anything less than a bowl game and he’s done.

9. Dave Aranda, Baylor

Dave Aranda falls to #9, and the shine from that 2021 Big 12 Championship has completely worn off. His 36-34 record through six seasons isn’t disastrous, it’s just deeply uninspiring for a program that expects more. Aranda wins just enough games to avoid the hot seat entirely, but never enough to generate real momentum or championship buzz. The fan base has moved from “trust the process” to “what exactly is the process?” as another mediocre season unfolds. Recruiting has slowed as elite Texas prospects look for programs with clearer upward trajectories. Aranda’s defensive expertise was supposed to be the foundation for sustained success, but it hasn’t translated into consistent winning. The remaining games will determine whether Baylor sees enough to commit long-term or starts exploring other options.

10. Mark Stoops, Kentucky

Mark Stoops barely holds #10 after one Auburn win bought temporary relief from what felt like inevitable disaster. His 81-78 record through 13 seasons is both Kentucky’s most successful era ever and clear evidence of a program that’s hit its ceiling. Multi-year SEC losing streaks and repeated blowouts have created frustration throughout the program. The real problem? Kentucky would owe Stoops nearly $38 million if they fired him after this season, and the contract requires the full amount be paid within 60 days. That’s not just expensive, it’s functionally impossible for Kentucky’s athletic budget. Stoops is essentially untouchable no matter how the season ends. The remaining games aren’t about his job security, they’re about whether another year of known limitations is acceptable. Thirteen years of evidence suggests he’s taken Kentucky as far as he can.

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Week 11 – Coaches Hot Seat Rankings

Mark Haines on November 4, 2025

Week 11 is where the pretenders get exposed.

This is the part of the season where the rubber meets the road. Where your team and your staff prove they’ve “got it” – or don’t. The early-season excuses are gone. The “we’re still figuring things out” narrative doesn’t fly anymore. By Week 11, you either have a culture that wins close games, a roster that believes in the system, and donors who are writing checks – or you’re watching your career circle the drain in real-time. This is where coaches earn their next contract or start quietly updating their resumes. This is where athletic directors stop taking “we’ll turn it around” phone calls and start having very different conversations. Week 11 separates the programs that are building something real from those that are just delaying the inevitable. And for these ten coaches? We break each situation down below:

1. Jonathan Smith, Michigan State

Jonathan Smith is sitting on a $33M-$37M buyout that’s paid out over 62 monthly installments – the kind of number that makes firing him financially painful but not impossible. The problem? He’s already lost his fan base after humiliating losses, recruiting is cratering, and donors are hesitant to continue funding a sinking ship. New AD J Batt inherited this mess and now faces a massive decision to either force Smith to turn it around immediately or mobilize donors to eat the buyout and start over. Michigan State isn’t just losing games – they’re losing their identity. Every day Smith remains in place is another day that elite recruits look elsewhere.

2. Mike Locksley, Maryland

Mike Locksley has lost the locker room, and everyone knows it. NIL chaos has players checked out, fourth-quarter collapses have become routine, and October was an unmitigated disaster that had fans chanting for his firing in the stadium. His seat is scorching, #2 on the hot seat rankings, but he’s got one lifeline: a legitimately strong 2025 recruiting class that’s making the administration hesitate before pulling the trigger. The job market is also flooded with high-profile openings, which might give him a reprieve simply because Maryland doesn’t want to get into a bidding war and strike out. But make no mistake: donor support is evaporating, administration confidence is gone, and Locksley is one more ugly loss away from a Sunday morning firing.

3. Mike Norvell, Florida State

Mike Norvell dropped from #1 to #3 on the hot seat after a win over Wake Forest and enough player support to give the administration cover to hesitate on his $55M+ buyout. But dropping two spots isn’t a victory – it’s a temporary reprieve. He barely survived recent board meetings where his future was debated in real-time, boosters are in open revolt, and fan skepticism is at an all-time high. Behind closed doors, FSU is already planning for 2026 when that buyout becomes more manageable. Questions about fit, contract structure, and whether this marriage ever made sense continue to linger. Norvell bought himself time, but one more blowout loss and he’s right back at #1.

4. Luke Fickell, Wisconsin

Luke Fickell is torching every ounce of goodwill he built at Cincinnati, and it’s happening fast. Multiple blowout losses and a stagnant offense have Wisconsin fans throwing remotes through their TVs, while recruiting momentum has completely flatlined. The administration isn’t just disappointed, they’re demanding foundational change, the kind of language that means “fix this NOW or we’re moving on.” Recent staff decisions have only accelerated skepticism, and fan patience has completely evaporated, with social media ablaze and calling for a reset. The only thing keeping Fickell employed is his buyout, but donors are starting to ask the question every coach dreads: “How much would it actually cost to start over?” One more embarrassing loss, and that buyout begins looking like a bargain.

5. Justin Wilcox, California

Justin Wilcox has mastered the art of losing games in the fourth quarter, and Cal fans have moved past frustration into full acceptance mode. Navigating conference realignment chaos while failing to elevate recruiting has left the program stagnant at a time when adaptation is everything. The death knell? Donors have checked out completely; they’ve stopped writing checks, stopped believing in the vision, and started asking pointed questions about ROI. Doubts about future competitiveness aren’t whispers anymore; they’re loud conversations in booster meetings. Wilcox isn’t just on shaky ground – he’s standing on a fault line, and everyone is waiting for the earthquake.

6. Bill Belichick, North Carolina

Bill Belichick at North Carolina was supposed to be a revolution with six Super Bowl rings, transforming college football. Instead, it’s looking like a very expensive mistake. One Power Four win. Bowl eligibility hanging by a thread. And a coaching style built for NFL veterans that doesn’t translate to 18-year-olds who need recruiting, not drafting. The administration is losing patience fast because elite prospects are looking at UNC and seeing chaos, not a championship pedigree. Recruiting hasn’t improved; it has actually gotten worse. The contract details are murky but undoubtedly expensive, the kind of money that looked brilliant when everyone thought he’d win immediately and catastrophic now that he’s not. The experiment is failing, and everyone is watching to see how quickly UNC pulls the plug.

7. Shane Beamer, South Carolina

Shane Beamer fired his offensive coordinator and offensive line coach mid-season, a desperate move that screams “I’m fighting for my life.” And it might not be enough. Insiders are saying it plainly: unless South Carolina rallies for bowl eligibility, Beamer is done. Booster support is crumbling fast, with the money people who once championed his energy and “South Carolina guy” credentials now demanding answers about results. Pressure is coming from everywhere—fans, administration, donors—all pointing to the same conclusion: the current vision isn’t working. Recruiting is getting massacred by staff instability, because elite prospects don’t commit to programs where coaches are getting fired mid-season and the head coach’s future is a weekly radio debate. Beamer bought himself time with those firings, but bowl eligibility isn’t just a goal anymore—it’s a job requirement.

8. Tim Beck, Coastal Carolina

Tim Beck still has the backing of Coastal Carolina’s administration, thanks to recent bowl appearances, but that institutional patience has an expiration date that’s approaching quickly. Competitive culture is struggling in a Sun Belt where parity is real, and roster retention has become a nightmare in the portal era. Donors aren’t panicking yet, they’re not calling for his head yet, but they’re watching, whispering, and starting to ask the question every coach dreads: “What happens if we miss a bowl game this year?” That’s the line in the sand. Miss the postseason and the conversation changes overnight from “let’s give him more time” to “maybe it’s time for a new direction.” Beck has a lifeline, but it’s fraying fast.

9. Dave Aranda, Baylor

Dave Aranda’s shine has completely worn off at Baylor, and the 2021 Big 12 Championship feels like ancient history. A mediocre record, zero championship buzz, and a fan base that has moved from “trust the process” to “what exactly IS the process?” has the administration and boosters doing more than watching—they’re calculating buyout logistics. That’s not hot seat attention; that’s death row. The donor base is eroding, checking out, and wondering if their money is being invested wisely. Recruiting momentum is slowing to a crawl because elite prospects can smell uncertainty from a mile away. Aranda needs a strong finish, not just bowl eligibility, but something that reminds people why Baylor hired him in the first place. Because right now? Nobody remembers, and that’s the most dangerous position any coach can be in.

10. Mark Stoops, Kentucky

Mark Stoops was this close to being fired before a dramatic win at Auburn bought him a reprieve, but one victory doesn’t erase a multi-year SEC losing streak. Years of being demolished by conference opponents have left Kentucky feeling more like a basketball school’s side project than a legitimate SEC program, and the administration has had legitimate conversations about buyout numbers and replacement candidates. The buyout is sizeable but not insurmountable, meaning if things go south again, Kentucky can afford to move on. Stoops needs two things immediately: roster confidence (players who believe they can compete in the SEC) and donor confidence (boosters who believe their money isn’t being wasted). Both are shaky right now. The remaining games aren’t just about bowl eligibility; they’re about survival, and everyone is watching.

Where does your coach rank?

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California (4-2) Hosts North Carolina (2-3) Friday Night: A Brutally Honest Game Preview Of Two Bad Teams Fighting To Prove Who Sucks Less

Mark Haines on October 17, 2025

This is not a game between two good football teams.

Let’s just get that out of the way right now. California (4-2) hosts North Carolina (2-3) on Friday night in Berkeley, and if you’re expecting offensive fireworks or elite defensive play, you’re watching the wrong game. This is a battle between two deeply flawed teams trying to figure out who can avoid embarrassing themselves on national television.

But here’s the thing: it might be wildly entertaining for all the wrong reasons.

Cal Has Perfected The Art Of Creative Losing

If you’ve followed California football for more than five minutes, you know they’ve invented approximately 47 new ways to lose football games.

They are the masters of creative catastrophe.

Lost 0-34 to San Diego State (a team that went 3-9 last year)
Got shutout at home… by a Mountain West team
Scored 21 points against Duke and still lost by 24
Beat an FCS team and act like they’re playoff contenders

The Golden Bears are the team that will drive 90 yards down the field, get inside the 5-yard line, and then somehow throw three consecutive incompletions to settle for a field goal. Or miss it. They’ll probably miss it.

This is Cal football, baby.

Bill Belichick’s Offense Is A Dumpster Fire

Meanwhile, North Carolina hired the greatest coach in NFL history and somehow made their offense worse.

The Tar Heels are averaging 11 points per game against Power 5 opponents.

Let that sink in for a second. Eleven. That’s not a typo. That’s not adjusted for pace or advanced metrics. That’s just… pathetically bad football. Here’s what UNC has accomplished this season:

Scored 14 points against TCU (lost by 34)
Scored 9 points against UCF (yes, nine)
Scored 10 points against Clemson
Beat FCS Richmond and think they’re back

The Belichick Era in Chapel Hill has been one long, painful lesson in “NFL schemes don’t work in college when you have college players.” Their offense is so dysfunctional it makes Cal’s creative losing look competent by comparison.

And that’s saying something.

The Matchups Are Hilariously One-Sided

Let’s talk about what happens when these two teams play each other.

California’s mediocre offense versus North Carolina’s terrible defense:

Cal should score. Their freshman quarterback threw for 279 yards and three touchdowns against Minnesota. UNC’s defense allows 70.3% completions (one of the worst in FBS) and gives up 40 points per game to Power 5 teams. Even Cal’s inconsistent passing attack should move the ball.

The problem? Cal also got shut out by San Diego State, so who the hell knows?

North Carolina’s abysmal offense versus California’s decent defense:

This is where the game gets decided. UNC can’t score against anyone with a pulse. Cal’s defense ranks 32nd nationally in scoring defense and should absolutely dominate this matchup. The only question is whether UNC scores 7 or 10 points before the clock hits zero.

The special teams and coaching edges:

Cal has an All-America return specialist (advantage: Cal)
Cal had a bye week to prepare (advantage: Cal)
Cal plays at home at 10:30pm ET (advantage: Cal)
Bill Belichick has eight Super Bowl rings (advantage: doesn’t matter, his offense stinks)

Everything favors California except for one tiny detail: they’re California, and they specialize in losing games they should win.

Why Cal Should Win (But Might Not)

Here’s the rational, data-driven case for why California wins this game by two touchdowns.

The numbers don’t lie:

Home field advantage + late-night body clock game
UNC’s offense is historically bad (119th in scoring nationally)
Cal’s defense can shut down UNC’s dysfunction
UNC is 0-3 against Power 5 teams with a -29 point average margin
Cal had extra week to prepare and gameplan

If you run this game through a computer simulation 100 times, Cal probably wins 75 of them. They’re better at almost every position. Their quarterback is inconsistent but still better than whatever UNC is running out there. Their defense is competent. They’re playing at home.

They should cruise to a 24-10 victory.

Why Cal Could Still Lose (Because They’re Cal)

But then you remember: this is California football.

And California football is chaos incarnate.

The Golden Bears have a unique talent for finding new and inventive ways to lose games they should win. Maybe their freshman QB throws four interceptions. Maybe they fumble on their own 10-yard line three times. Maybe Bill Belichick conjures up some dark NFL sorcery that confuses everyone.

Here are the ways this goes sideways:

Cal’s offense reverts to “San Diego State shutout” mode
Freshman QB makes 2-3 catastrophic mistakes
Red zone failures turn TDs into field goals (or misses)
Belichick’s desperate game plan actually works for once
The universe decides Cal fans don’t deserve nice things

The probability? Maybe 25%.

But that 25% is real. Cal could absolutely blow this. They’ve blown easier games. They’re probably drawing up the blueprint for how to blow this one right now.

The Real Prediction

California 24, North Carolina 10

Cal’s defense holds UNC to one garbage-time touchdown and a field goal. Cal’s offense does just enough against UNC’s awful pass defense to score three touchdowns (probably). The home crowd gets loud. The body clock matters. Bill Belichick looks confused on the sideline, wondering why his NFL plays don’t work in college.

This is the most likely outcome.

But if you’re betting the house on this game, maybe reconsider. Because Cal is involved, and Cal specializes in making their fans suffer in new and creative ways. They could win 31-7. They could lose 20-23 on a last-second field goal after blowing a 17-point lead.

That’s the beauty and terror of California football.

What To Watch For

If you’re actually going to watch this Friday night disaster, here’s what matters:

First 10 minutes: Does Cal’s offense move the ball easily against UNC’s defense? If yes, this game is over.
UNC’s first red zone trip: Can they score a TD or do they settle for a FG? (Spoiler: they’ll probably fail entirely)
Cal’s turnover count: If the freshman QB throws 2+ picks, UNC has a chance
Third quarter adjustments: Does Belichick have anything creative? (Narrator: he does not)

The over/under will probably be around 44 points. Hammer the under. Both teams stink at scoring. Both teams will settle for field goals in the red zone. Both teams will punt 12 times.

This game hits 34 total points and everyone goes home disappointed.

The Bottom Line

California should win this game because North Carolina’s offense is one of the worst in college football.

That’s it. That’s the analysis.

UNC can’t score against decent defenses. Cal has a decent defense. Math says Cal wins. But Cal also has a proud tradition of defying math and finding spectacular new ways to lose, so bring popcorn and prepare for chaos.

Final prediction: Cal 24, UNC 10 (with 40% confidence that something weirder happens)

Welcome to Friday night Pac-12… wait, ACC… wait, who even knows anymore? This is college football in 2025, where nothing makes sense and the points don’t matter unless you’re betting the under.

Enjoy the trainwreck.

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Week 8 — Coaches Hot Seat Rankings

Mark Haines on October 14, 2025

Three coaches were fired on Sunday.

Trent Dilfer. James Franklin. Trent Bray.

Gone.

When coaches start falling in October, everyone else feels it. The phone calls start. The quiet meetings happen. The pressure that was already there gets cranked up to a whole new level.

Here are the 10 coaches under the most pressure in college football right now:

1. Billy Napier, Florida (SEC)

Trent Dilfer got fired Sunday with a 3-4 record.

Billy Napier is 21-23 at Florida. One upset over Texas doesn’t erase years of mediocrity. The Gators are paying him $7 million to compete for bowl eligibility while Georgia and Alabama compete for championships.

That’s unacceptable at Florida.

2. Hugh Freeze, Auburn (SEC)

Hugh Freeze came to Auburn with a redemption story.

A second chance after Ole Miss. Auburn gave him big money, full control, everything he needed to compete. The pressure is mounting because it’s not working.

Right now, Auburn isn’t competing.

3. Mike Norvell, Florida State (ACC)

Florida State hasn’t won an ACC game since November 2023.

Fifteen straight conference losses. Two full seasons. Zero ACC wins.

Mike Norvell went from 13-1 ACC Champions to unwatchable in less than a year.

FSU beat Florida earlier this season, and the media acted like they were “back.” They’re not—they’re 0-2 in ACC play. Norvell has had two years to figure out how to win in the ACC.

At Florida State, that’s unacceptable.

4. Jeff Choate, Nevada (Mountain West)

Jeff Choate is 4-15 at Nevada.

What worked at Montana State isn’t translating to the FBS level. Choate talks about tough, physical football, but Nevada is getting pushed around. The problem isn’t philosophy—it’s execution.

Choate is running out of time.

5. Joe Moorhead, Akron (MAC)

Joe Moorhead is 10-33 at Akron.

Elite offensive coordinator at previous stops. Winner at Fordham. But the Zips move the ball, rack up yards, then stall in the red zone—that’s coaching.

A 10-33 record over four years tells the story.

6. Luke Fickell, Wisconsin (Big Ten)

Luke Fickell was supposed to save Wisconsin football.

Wisconsin gave him everything—big money, full control, time to install his system. The defense has regressed, the offense looks disjointed, and the Big Ten is exposing every weakness. Wisconsin fans don’t want to hear about systems—they want wins.

Fickell isn’t meeting the Wisconsin standard yet.

7. Butch Jones, Arkansas State (Sun Belt)

Butch Jones failed at Tennessee.

Now he’s failing at Arkansas State. The Red Wolves are underperforming, players aren’t buying in, and fans aren’t showing up. Arkansas State thought Jones learned from his Tennessee mistakes.

The results suggest otherwise.

8. Justin Wilcox, California (ACC)

Cal got a fresh start with the move to the ACC.

New conference. New competition. New expectations. And here’s the number that matters: 8 wins.

That’s what Justin Wilcox needs to keep his job.

Look at what’s left on the schedule:

North Carolina
At Virginia Tech
Ranked Virginia
At Louisville
At Stanford
SMU

Six games—Cal needs to win five of them.

Wilcox is supposed to be a defensive guru who maximizes limited resources. But the Bears are getting manhandled by ACC competition—the defense can’t stop anyone, the offense can’t score. The math isn’t mathing.

Cal has a new chancellor—an alum, Class of ’83.

They hired Ron Rivera, NFL veteran head coach, as General Manager overseeing the football program. ESPN’s Gameday came to Berkeley last season. Everyone saw the potential. Cal has poured money and resources into this program—and they’re expecting results.

Can Willcox get the Golden Bears to 8 regular-season wins?

9. Sonny Cumbie, Louisiana Tech (C-USA)

Sonny Cumbie was supposed to bring offensive firepower to Louisiana Tech.

The Air Raid disciple. The Texas Tech coordinator everyone wanted to hire. But coordinating and head coaching are two completely different jobs—the offense has been inconsistent, the defense worse, and the program feels directionless.

Coordinator success doesn’t automatically translate to head coaching success.

10. Derek Mason, Middle Tennessee (C-USA)

Derek Mason is 4-14 at Middle Tennessee.

He’s a defensive coach in an era where offense wins championships. Mason is building a 2005 program in 2025, and Middle Tennessee can barely crack 20 points per game. MTSU fans are asking: What exactly are we getting better at?

If the answer is “nothing,” the pressure builds.

The Bottom Line:

Three coaches got fired this week—more will follow.

Athletic directors are making calls. Boosters are applying pressure. Coaches who thought they were safe realize they’re not.

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Clemson Is 1-3 And Desperate. North Carolina Can’t Score. Here’s Why Saturday’s ACC Matchup Will Be Ugly—And Why Clemson Wins Anyway

Mark Haines on October 3, 2025

Saturday’s ACC matchup is the college football equivalent of two drowning men fighting over a life vest.

Clemson entered 2025 as a conference championship favorite. North Carolina hired Bill Belichick—the greatest NFL coach of all time—to transform their program. Four games in, both teams are disasters. Clemson is 1-3 and reeling. UNC is 2-2 and can’t score points if their lives depended on it. One of these teams will emerge victorious. The other will spiral deeper into crisis mode.

Let me break down what the numbers reveal about both teams and why this game matters more than you might think.

Clemson: The Preseason Darling That Face-Planted

The Tigers were expected to compete for ACC titles and College Football Playoff spots.

Instead, they’ve lost three straight games and look completely lost. Their offense averages 365.3 yards per game—not terrible on paper, but they’re scoring just 18 points per game in losses. That’s the problem. Moving the ball doesn’t matter if you can’t finish drives. They’re turning the ball over 1.8 times per game while forcing only 1.3 takeaways. That -0.5 turnover margin is killing them. Their losses tell the whole story: 10-17 to LSU, 21-24 to Georgia Tech, and 21-34 to Syracuse. The only game they won was an underwhelming 27-16 victory over Troy.

Here’s what’s working:

Passing game: 249 yards per game, 1.5 TDs
Defense: Allowing 362 yards per game (solid, not spectacular)
Yards per play: 5.7 (respectable efficiency)

Here’s what’s broken:

Red zone execution: Can’t punch it in when it matters
Turnover battle: Losing it badly
Rushing attack: Just 116.3 yards per game, 1 TD per game
Confidence: Three straight losses will do that

This is a team with talent that’s completely underperforming expectations.

North Carolina: Bill Belichick Learns College Football Is Different

The Belichick hiring was supposed to change everything.

It hasn’t. UNC’s offense is an absolute train wreck—263.5 total yards per game. That’s not “struggling.” That’s historically bad for a Power 4 conference team. They’re averaging a pathetic 4.9 yards per play. For context, that’s the kind of efficiency you’d expect from a bottom-tier Group of 5 program. Their passing game generates just 150 yards per game. Their running game isn’t much better at 113.5 yards. They score 1.3 passing touchdowns per game and 1 rushing touchdown. Do the math: that’s 2.3 total touchdowns per game.

The losses are ugly:

TCU demolished them 48-14
UCF embarrassed them 34-9
Their two wins came against Charlotte (20-3) and Richmond (41-6)

Translation: They beat two teams they should have destroyed, but got destroyed by anyone decent.

The defense is actually better than you’d think—allowing 344.5 yards per game, which is actually superior to Clemson’s defense. But when your offense can’t sustain drives or score points, it doesn’t matter how well your defense plays. They’re even in the turnover battle at 0.0 per game, which means they’re not creating extra possessions to compensate for their offensive ineptitude.

Belichick is learning that NFL coaching genius doesn’t automatically translate when your quarterback can’t complete passes and your skill players can’t make plays.

The Matchup: Where Clemson Should Dominate

This game comes down to one simple fact: Clemson is better everywhere.

Their offense generates 101.8 more yards per game than North Carolina’s offense. Their 5.7 yards per play crushes UNC’s 4.9. Even though both defenses are similar, Clemson’s desperation, combined with the challenge of facing UNC’s anemic offense, creates the perfect storm for them to finally get back on track. North Carolina has shown zero ability to score against competent opponents. Clemson is competent. Barely, but competent.

The key advantages for Clemson:

Offensive firepower: They move the ball consistently
Efficiency edge: 0.8 yards per play advantage
Desperation: They NEED this win to salvage their season
Matchup: UNC can’t score on anyone

Where UNC could surprise:

Home field advantage
Clemson’s turnover problems continue
Belichick schemes something unexpected

But let’s be honest—UNC’s offense is too broken for any of that to matter.

My Prediction: Clemson 31, North Carolina 14

Clemson wins, and it’s not close.

They’re playing a team that averages 11.5 points in losses and can barely move the football. Even with Clemson’s struggles, they have too much talent and too much desperation to lose this game. They’ll control possession, limit UNC’s already-limited scoring opportunities, and finally find the end zone enough times to win comfortably. North Carolina will score one touchdown on a broken play or short field, add a field goal or garbage-time score, and otherwise look completely overmatched.

The real story isn’t who wins this game.

The real story is what happens next. Clemson gets a much-needed confidence boost but remains far below preseason expectations. They’re not competing for championships—they’re just trying to make a bowl game at this point. For North Carolina, this loss (and it will be a loss) raises serious questions about whether Belichick can actually fix this mess. NFL coaching legends don’t mean anything in college football if you can’t recruit, develop talent, and put together a functional offensive system.

Saturday’s game is must-watch television for all the wrong reasons—two disappointing teams desperately trying not to drown.

One will survive. The other will sink deeper.

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From Hot Seat to Playoff Hunt: How FSU and Virginia Went From College Football’s Biggest Disasters to Undefeated Juggernauts in One Season

Mark Haines on September 26, 2025

Friday Night Lights in Charlottesville
#8 Florida State (3-0) at Virginia (3-1)
Scott Stadium, Charlottesville, VA
Friday, September 26, 2025 – 7:00 PM ET

The Storylines

Florida State: From Disaster to Dynasty (Again)

The Seminoles have authored one of the most remarkable turnarounds in recent college football history. After a catastrophic 2-10 season in 2024 that saw them get outgained by 115.6 yards per game and score just 270.3 yards of total offense per contest, FSU has exploded onto the scene in 2025.

2025 Statistical Dominance:

628.7 yards per game of total offense (+358.4 from 2024!)
248.0 yards allowed per game on defense (-137.9 improvement)
+380.7 yard differential per game (a staggering +496.3 swing from 2024)
363.0 rushing yards per game (up from an anemic 89.9 in 2024)

The Seminoles announced their arrival with a stunning 31-17 victory over #8 Alabama in the season opener, then followed with dominant blowouts of East Texas A&M (77-3) and Kent State (66-10). This is a program that has found its identity again after losing it completely in 2024.

Virginia: Tony Elliott Finally Breaks Through

Cavaliers head coach Tony Elliott entered 2025 as high as #7 on coaching hot seat rankings after years of mediocrity in Charlottesville. Four games into the season, he’s likely secured his job for years to come with an equally impressive transformation.

Virginia’s Renaissance:

564.5 yards per game of total offense (up 56% from 360.9 in 2024)
313.5 yards allowed per game (-23% improvement from 408.3)
+251.0 yard differential per game (up from -47.4 in 2024)
251.5 rushing yards per game (+91% improvement from 131.9)

Elliott’s squad has posted signature wins over Coastal Carolina (48-7), William & Mary (55-16), and Stanford (48-20), with their only loss coming in a competitive 31-35 defeat to NC State.

Key Matchup Battles

Rushing Attacks vs. Run Defenses

This could be the decisive factor. Both teams have transformed their ground games into elite units:

FSU Rushing (363.0 ypg) vs UVA Rush Defense (100.3 ypg allowed)
UVA Rushing (251.5 ypg) vs FSU Rush Defense (78.3 ypg allowed)

Florida State’s rushing explosion has been the key to their offensive transformation, while Virginia has found a balanced attack that keeps defenses honest. However, FSU’s run defense has been even more dominant, allowing just 78.3 yards per game.

Quarterback Play

Florida State appears to have solved their 2024 quarterback carousel that featured struggling performances from D.J. Uiagalelei, Brock Glenn, and Luke Kromenhoek. The 2025 passing efficiency (70.7% completion rate, 265.7 ypg) suggests they’ve found their answer.

Virginia’s Anthony Colandrea has taken a massive step forward from his inconsistent 2024 (61.9% completion, 13 TD/11 INT) to become a precise, efficient leader (67.8% completion rate, 313.0 ypg).

Explosive Play Potential

Both offenses are now averaging over 7.0 yards per play (FSU: 8.9, UVA: 7.2), a massive increase from their 2024 struggles. The team that creates more explosive plays will likely control this high-scoring affair.

What’s At Stake

For Florida State

Undefeated season and potential playoff positioning
National credibility after the 2024 embarrassment
ACC Championship aspirations in their first year back to form
Momentum heading into the meat of their ACC schedule

For Virginia

Program validation under Tony Elliott’s leadership
ACC relevance for the first time in years
Upset potential against a ranked opponent at home
Continued hot seat relief for Elliott with a signature win

For Both Programs

This game represents the collision of two remarkable coaching turnarounds. Both Mike Norvell at FSU and Tony Elliott at UVA were facing serious questions about their futures just months ago. Now they’re leading two of the most improved teams in college football.

The Prediction

Florida State 38, Virginia 28

This should be an instant classic between two explosive offenses. FSU’s slightly more dominant statistical profile and their experience against elite competition (Alabama) give them the edge. Still, Virginia’s home field advantage and newfound confidence make this much closer than the rankings suggest.

Expect a track meet with over 1,100 total yards of offense between these two teams. The difference will likely come down to a few explosive plays and which team can get a crucial stop when needed.

Keys to Victory:

FSU: Establish the rushing attack early and force Virginia into a one-dimensional passing game
UVA: Use home crowd energy to create early momentum and keep pace in what should be a high-scoring affair

Both programs have gone from coaching hot seats to legitimate contenders in remarkable fashion. Tonight’s winner takes a massive step toward ACC Championship contention.

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Two Coaches, Two Seasons: How Cal vs San Diego State Became A Tale of Opposite Trajectories

Mark Haines on September 18, 2025

Cal coach Justin Wilcox started this season at #15 on our Coaches Hot Seat Rankings. This week, he sits at #41.

Cal supporters were calling for his firing. Eight years of mediocrity had worn thin on a fanbase that remembered the Jeff Tedford glory days. The move to the ACC felt like a desperate attempt to save a program—and a coach—that had lost its way.

Three games into the 2025 season, Wilcox isn’t just off the hot seat.

He’s got Cal positioned as a legitimate ACC championship contender.

The Numbers Don’t Lie

Let’s start with what actually matters: results.

2024 Cal: 6-7 record, including a bowl loss. Mediocre on both sides of the ball.

2025 Cal: 3-0 with statement wins, including a road victory at Oregon State and a home domination of Big Ten’s Minnesota.

But here’s where it gets interesting—the statistical transformation is unprecedented.

The Defensive Revolution:

Total Defense: 421.4 yards allowed (2024) → 280.0 yards allowed (2025)
That’s 141+ fewer yards per game—one of the most dramatic single-season improvements in college football
Rush Defense: 109.8 yards allowed → 82.3 yards allowed (-27.5 yards, -25.0%)
Pass Defense: 227.6 yards allowed → 197.7 yards allowed (-29.9 yards, -13.1%)

The Offensive Evolution:

Scoring: 23.2 ppg → 24.3 ppg
Total Offense: 380.1 yards → 387.7 yards
Passing: 258.6 yards → 269.0 yards (+10.4 yards)

This isn’t a marginal improvement. This is a systematic transformation.

The Schedule That Changes Everything

Here’s where Wilcox caught lightning in a bottle: Cal’s ACC scheduling rotation.

Teams Cal AVOIDS in 2025: Clemson, Miami, Florida State, Georgia Tech, NC State, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, Wake Forest.

Teams Cal PLAYS in ACC action:

@ Boston College
vs Duke (ACC home opener)
vs North Carolina (Bill Belichick’s debut season)
@ Virginia Tech
vs Virginia
@ Louisville (their toughest road test)
@ Stanford (Big Game rivalry)
vs SMU (potential title game preview)

Look at that list again.

Cal avoided every single ACC powerhouse except SMU—and they get the Mustangs at home in the regular season finale.

The Hot Seat Parallel That Should Terrify Sean Lewis

While Wilcox has engineered one of the most dramatic coaching turnarounds in recent memory, his Week 4 opponent represents the opposite trajectory.

Sean Lewis at San Diego State:

Started at #41 on our Hot Seat Rankings
Now sitting at #17 and climbing
His “AztecFAST” offense has somehow gotten WORSE in Year 2

The Numbers:

2024 SDSU: 19.5 points per game (terrible)
2025 SDSU: 15.5 points per game (historically bad)
Point Differential: -8.3 (2024) → -3.0 (2025)*

*Only improved because their defense got dramatically better while the offense cratered

The Fan Revolt: Season ticket sales down 33%. The program handed out 4,000 free tickets to get bodies in seats for Cal’s visit. Lewis is exhibiting all the warning signs of a coach about to be fired mid-season.

Saturday’s Matchup: Cal (24.3 ppg, elite defense) vs SDSU (15.5 ppg, historically bad offense)

This should be a statement win that propels Cal toward ACC title contention.

The Path to Charlotte

Here’s the reality that nobody wants to talk about: Cal has a legitimate path to the ACC Championship Game.

The New Format: No divisions. The two teams with the best ACC conference records play for the title.

Cal’s Realistic Projection:

Likely Wins (5 games): Boston College, Duke, Virginia Tech, Virginia, Stanford
Toss-ups (2 games): North Carolina (Belichick’s first year chaos), Louisville (road)
Statement Game (1 game): SMU at home in finale

Path to 7-1 in ACC play: Beat the teams you should beat, split the toss-ups, and upset SMU at home.

Path to 6-2 in ACC play: Same as above, but lose one of the “sure things.”

Either record likely gets Cal to Charlotte.

The Transformation Timeline

January 2025: Cal supporters want Wilcox fired
March 2025: Wilcox at #15 on Hot Seat Rankings
September 2025: Cal 3-0 with the most improved defense in college football
December 2025: Playing for an ACC Championship?

This is what great coaching looks like when everything clicks.

Wilcox didn’t just make cosmetic changes. He fundamentally transformed the identity of his program. The defense that was giving up 421+ yards per game in 2024 is now allowing just 280 yards in 2025—that’s the kind of year-over-year improvement that typically takes multiple recruiting cycles and scheme overhauls.

The Foster Parallel

Remember our piece on DeShaun Foster’s situation at UCLA? The parallels between Foster’s final days and Sean Lewis’s current predicament at San Diego State are striking:

Initial optimism followed by spectacular failure
Gimmicky offensive systems that don’t work
Fan revolts and administrative pressure
Players transferring out

But Wilcox represents the opposite trajectory.

Sometimes a coach on the hot seat doesn’t need to be fired—he needs to be challenged. The move to the ACC, the pressure from fans, the make-or-break moment seemed to unlock something in Wilcox that eight years at Cal hadn’t revealed.

The Bottom Line

Justin Wilcox started 2025 fighting for his job.

He might end it fighting for a conference championship.

The statistical improvements aren’t flukes. The schedule isn’t luck—it’s opportunity. The wins aren’t accidents—they’re the result of systematic program transformation.

Cal’s defense has improved by 141 yards per game. Their offense is more efficient. Their quarterback play is steady. Their coaching is sharp.

Most importantly, they avoid Clemson, Miami, and the ACC’s elite tier while getting most of their challenging games at home.

Prediction: Cal goes 6-2 or 7-1 in ACC play and plays for the conference championship.

Hot Seat Status: Wilcox isn’t just off our rankings—he’s building a program that could compete at the highest level for years to come.

Sometimes, the coach everyone wants fired is exactly the coach who needed the proper support and circumstances to succeed.

Justin Wilcox just found his.

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Michigan football stands at a critical turning point that will define the program’s trajectory for years.

As spring practice concludes in Ann Arbor, the Michigan Wolverines find themselves at a fascinating crossroads.

Following a rollercoaster 2024 campaign that ended with an 8-5 record, second-year head coach Sherrone Moore faces the challenge of recapturing the program’s championship form while integrating a wealth of new talent and implementing significant schematic changes.

The 2024 season will be remembered as a tale of two halves:

A disappointing 5-5 start that had fans questioning the program’s direction
Stunning upsets over No. 2 Ohio State (13-10) and No. 11 Alabama (19-13) to close the year
Michigan is the only program to defeat Alabama twice in one calendar year
A late-season surge that injected renewed optimism into a program that had struggled with consistency

These dramatic season-ending victories completely transformed the narrative around Michigan football heading into 2025.

Michigan’s 2025 campaign will hinge on how quickly the offense can develop around its new quarterback and whether the defense can maintain its late-2024 form. The program’s trajectory remains positive, but the margin for error in a tougher Big Ten is slim.

Have you ever seen a program pin its entire hopes on the shoulders of an 18-year-old quarterback?

All eyes in Ann Arbor are fixed on five-star freshman quarterback Bryce Underwood, the No. 1 overall recruit in the 2025 class and the highest-rated signee in Michigan history.

Underwood’s arrival represents both immense opportunity and significant pressure. The dual-threat signal-caller is widely expected to start immediately despite his youth. His elite talent brings an electricity to Michigan that the program desperately needs after a disappointing offensive showing in 2024.

What makes Underwood’s situation different from other freshman quarterbacks?

He joins a program just one year removed from a national championship
Michigan’s passing attack ranked a dismal 131st nationally in 2024 (129.1 yards per game)
Experienced transfer Mikey Keene (Fresno State/UCF) provides insurance and mentorship
Most analysts expect Underwood to win the starting job immediately

“The quarterback situation is widely viewed as the key to Michigan’s 2025 ceiling,” according to the program’s internal analysis. “If Underwood adapts quickly and the offense improves, Michigan could contend for a Big Ten title and a playoff spot.”

Rarely has a true freshman quarterback shouldered such immediate expectations at a blue-blood program.

Michigan’s offense underwent a complete metamorphosis following one of the worst passing attacks in program history.

The offensive struggles that plagued Michigan in 2024 (113th nationally in scoring at 22.0 points per game) prompted significant changes, beginning with the arrival of new offensive coordinator Chip Lindsey from North Carolina.

Lindsey’s arrival marks a philosophical shift in Ann Arbor. His track record shows a commitment to balanced, explosive attacks. His 2023 UNC offense was one of only two nationally to average at least 290 passing yards and 190 rushing yards per game, showcasing his ability to create dynamic, unpredictable offensive systems.

The early returns from spring practice are promising:

Sophomore receiver Semaj Morgan called the new system “night and day” compared to last year’s approach
The new scheme emphasizes more wide receiver sets instead of heavy, predictable formations
Greater route diversity and vertical passing concepts create more explosive play opportunities
Running backs will be more involved in the passing game, creating mismatches

Supporting the passing game renaissance are new weapons with size and athleticism:

6-5 freshman Jamar Browder brings contested-catch ability
Indiana transfer Donovan McCulley (also 6-5) adds experienced size
Jordan Marshall (who starred in the Alabama bowl victory) returns in the backfield
Alabama transfer Justice Haynes joins to form a powerful one-two punch at running back

While returning experienced pieces like Giovanni El-Hadi, the offensive line must improve its consistency to protect Underwood and establish the physical run game that remains central to Michigan’s identity.

Five-star freshman Andrew Babalola and borderline five-star Ty Haywood could push for early playing time and inject immediate talent into this critical unit.

While the offense rebuilds, Michigan’s defense remains the program’s unshakeable foundation.

While the offense undergoes reconstruction, Michigan’s defense is poised to remain among the nation’s elite.

The 2024 unit allowed just 19.9 points per game (4th nationally) and held opponents to 3.1 yards per rush, showcasing the physical, suffocating style that has become the program’s calling card. Wink Martindale returns for his second season as defensive coordinator after engineering late-season masterpieces against Ohio State and Alabama that saved Michigan’s season.

What makes this defense special despite losing key pieces to the NFL?

The front seven projects to be especially formidable with returning stalwarts Rayshaun Benny, Derrick Moore, Jaishawn Barham, and Ernest Hausmann
Despite losing unanimous All-American Mason Graham, the defensive line boasts significant depth and talent.
While younger and less experienced, the secondary will rely on developing stars and incoming freshmen like four-star signees Shamari Earls, Elijah Dotson, and Kainoa Winston.
Coaching continuity in Martindale’s NFL-derived scheme provides a critical foundation.

Michigan’s defensive identity perfectly complements the program’s physical ethos and should keep the Wolverines competitive even through potential offensive growing pains early in the season.

The defense isn’t just good—it’s championship caliber.

Never underestimate the impact of elite special teams in a season defined by tight margins.

Michigan’s special teams unit, anchored by returning All-American kicker Dominic Zvada, is often overlooked but is critically important to its success.

In 2024, Zvada converted an exceptional 21 of 22 field goals (95.5%) and 26 of 27 extra points (96.3%), providing reliability in close games and a consistent weapon when the offense stalled in the red zone. His clutch performances in the Ohio State and Alabama victories underscored his value to the program.

Beyond the kicking game, Michigan’s special teams provide additional advantages:

The return game features explosive options in sophomores Semaj Morgan and Jordan Marshall
These playmakers add another dimension to Michigan’s ability to flip field position
Strong special teams can create scoring opportunities when the offense struggles
In a conference with narrow margins, special teams excellence can be the difference between victory and defeat

Michigan’s emphasis on special teams excellence reflects the program’s attention to detail and commitment to winning in all three game phases.

The 2025 schedule presents a gauntlet that would challenge even the most experienced teams.

Any assessment of Michigan’s 2025 outlook must account for a challenging schedule that offers few reprieves.

Early road tests at Oklahoma (September 6) and Nebraska (September 20) will immediately test Underwood’s development and the team’s ability to execute in hostile environments. The conference slate includes road games at USC and Michigan State, home contests against Washington and a season finale with archrival Ohio State.

What makes this schedule particularly daunting:

No consecutive home games appear anywhere on the schedule
The constant home/away alternation complicates recovery and momentum
Early road tests come before the team has fully established its identity
Four of Michigan’s opponents are projected preseason top 25 teams
The Ohio State finale comes after a long, grueling season

CBS Sports projects an 8-4 record for the Wolverines, citing roster turnover and the difficult schedule as primary factors. This conservative projection reflects the reality that even talented teams often struggle with consistency when facing elite competition week after week.

Navigating this schedule successfully would validate Michigan’s talent and coaching in a way that would resonate nationally.

For Coach Sherrone Moore, 2025 isn’t just another season—it’s the ultimate referendum on his leadership.

For Coach Sherrone Moore, 2025 represents a critical proving ground defining his tenure at Michigan.

While his job is secure following the program’s strong finish to 2024 and recruiting success (the 2025 class ranked No. 6 nationally), expectations have risen significantly. Moore ranks 14th out of 18 Big Ten coaches in USA Today’s 2025 rankings, reflecting skepticism about his inexperience despite his impressive recruiting wins.

The challenge is multifaceted:

Moore must establish his own identity separate from Jim Harbaugh’s legacy
His offensive coordinator hire (Chip Lindsey) represents a significant philosophical shift
Managing a five-star quarterback’s development requires delicate handling
The expanded Big Ten presents new challenges and unfamiliar opponents
He must navigate a two-game self-imposed suspension due to fallout from the 2023 sign-stealing scandal

This early-season absence could impact the team’s development, particularly with a young quarterback. How Moore handles these challenges will reveal whether he’s merely a caretaker of Harbaugh’s program or a championship-caliber head coach in his own right.

The verdict on Moore’s leadership will emerge through how Michigan responds to adversity in 2025.

The answers to these five questions will determine whether Michigan contends for championships or faces another rebuilding year.

Several critical questions will shape Michigan’s 2025 campaign:

How quickly can Bryce Underwood develop? The ceiling for this team largely depends on whether the freshman phenom can translate his immense talent to college production immediately. The history of true freshman quarterbacks suggests caution, but Underwood’s talent is undeniable.
Will Chip Lindsey’s offensive overhaul yield immediate results? After ranking 131st in passing, Michigan needs dramatic improvement to compete with Big Ten powers. Schematic changes take time, but the talent influx could accelerate the transition.
Can the defense maintain elite production despite key departures? The front seven appears loaded, but secondary depth and consistency remain concerns. Martindale’s second year should bring greater comfort in his system.
Will the offensive line provide adequate protection for a freshman quarterback? This unit’s performance directly impacts Underwood’s development and the effectiveness of the rushing attack. The line must improve from its inconsistent 2024 performance.
Can Michigan navigate the brutal road schedule? Games at Oklahoma, Nebraska, and USC represent significant challenges, particularly for a team breaking in new offensive systems. Road performance often separates good teams from great ones.

The answers to these questions will emerge gradually, but early-season performances will provide critical clues about Michigan’s trajectory.

Michigan stands poised between immediate resurgence and patient program building.

The contrast between optimism and caution defines Michigan’s 2025 outlook.

The influx of elite talent, particularly at quarterback, and the late-season momentum from 2024 suggest Michigan could quickly return to championship contention. Conversely, combining youth at key positions, a new offensive system, and a challenging schedule indicates potential growing pains.

What makes Michigan’s situation so compelling?

They’re just one year removed from a national championship
They possess championship-caliber defensive talent
They landed the nation’s No. 1 recruit at the sport’s most important position
They improved significantly at offensive coordinator
They face one of the nation’s most challenging schedules
They’re led by a head coach still establishing his identity

The talent level in Ann Arbor remains championship-caliber, the defensive identity remains strong, and the offensive ceiling is substantially higher than in 2024.

Whether Michigan can meet those expectations in 2025 or whether fans must practice patience for another season represents the defining storyline as the Wolverines embark on a new era under Sherrone Moore’s leadership, powered by a generational talent in Bryce Underwood.

Michigan’s 2025 season could ultimately be remembered as the beginning of a new dynasty or the necessary growing pains before one.

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Tulsa Golden Hurricane 2025 Season Preview: A New Era Under Tre Lamb

Mark Haines on April 10, 2025

The Tulsa Golden Hurricane is about to rise from the ashes of a disastrous 2024 campaign.

After limping to a 3-9 record (1-7 in AAC play) and fielding one of the worst defensive units in college football last season, Tulsa decided to dismiss Kevin Wilson after just two seasons at the helm. In his place steps Tre Lamb, a 35-year-old coaching wunderkind with a proven track record of program transformation and a reputation for quick turnarounds.

The question on everyone’s mind: Can Lamb resurrect a program that ranked 131st out of 133 FBS teams in total defense last year?

The Pain Points That Derailed 2024

Defensive collapse doesn’t begin to describe what happened to Tulsa football last season.

The Golden Hurricane surrendered a staggering 496.8 yards per game, with their pass defense leaking 316.0 yards per contest through the air. These weren’t just bad numbers—they represented a complete defensive meltdown that undermined any chance of competitive play in the American Athletic Conference.

The 2024 season featured three exhilarating wins:

A 62-28 demolition of Northwestern State in the season opener
A heart-stopping 23-20 overtime victory against Louisiana Tech
A thrilling 46-45 Homecoming triumph over UTSA that gave fans momentary hope

But these bright spots were overwhelmed by crushing defeats that exposed Tulsa’s vulnerability:

A 45-10 dismantling by Oklahoma State that wasn’t even as close as the score suggests
A 49-7 annihilation by Army that highlighted fundamental defensive deficiencies
A season-ending 63-16 embarrassment against Florida Atlantic sealed Wilson’s fate

Nothing less than a complete defensive rebuild will suffice for 2025.

Why Tre Lamb Might Be The Perfect Solution

Tre Lamb doesn’t just build football programs—he transforms them with shocking speed.

Born September 16, 1989, in Calhoun, Georgia, Lamb arrives in Tulsa with an impressive résumé that showcases his ability to engineer immediate turnarounds. His coaching journey reveals a consistent pattern:

At Tennessee Tech, as offensive coordinator, he helped elevate the team from consecutive two-win seasons to a respectable 6-6 record in 2019
During his Gardner-Webb tenure (2020-2023), he delivered back-to-back conference championships and the program’s first-ever FCS playoff victory.
Most recently at East Tennessee State, he flipped a 3-8 team into a 7-5 contender in just one season.

Athletic Director Justin Moore couldn’t hide his enthusiasm when announcing Lamb’s hiring, stating, “He is young, energetic, and a proven winner. We feel he is exactly who we need to lead our program and restore a tradition of winning for Tulsa in this new era of college football.”

Though his 27-25 overall record (1-2 in NCAA Division I playoffs) comes primarily at the FCS level, Lamb’s consistent ability to revitalize struggling programs makes him an intriguing bet for a Tulsa program desperate for new energy.

His arrival represents more than just a coaching change—it signals the dawn of a new era.

The Coaching Brain Trust Built For Rapid Change

Lamb isn’t tackling this rebuilding project alone.

The new head coach has assembled a staff combining youthful energy with tactical expertise, each member carefully selected to address Tulsa’s most glaring weaknesses:

Brad Robbins (Offensive Coordinator/Quarterbacks Coach) brings innovative offensive concepts
Ty Darlington (Co-Offensive Coordinator/Tight Ends Coach) adds schematic flexibility
Josh Reardon (Defensive Coordinator/Safeties Coach) faces the monumental task of rebuilding Tulsa’s porous defense
Mike Gray (Co-Defensive Coordinator/Linebackers Coach) provides additional defensive expertise
Kam Martin (Associate Head Coach/Running Backs Coach) rounds out the leadership team

This staff faces the complex challenge of implementing new systems while maximizing the talents of returning players and newcomers.

Their success will ultimately determine whether Lamb’s first season becomes the foundation for a program renaissance or just another false start.

Roster Reconstruction: The Talent Influx

No turnaround happens without an influx of new talent.

Tulsa’s 2025 roster reconstruction follows a dual approach, balancing high school recruiting with strategic transfer portal additions to address immediate needs and build for the future.

The Golden Hurricane secured 14 high school signees, with several standouts poised to make an impact:

Javion Antai (OL, 6’4″, 285 lbs) brings local talent and tremendous size from Jenks High School, OK
Hudson Ball (DE, 6’2″, 240 lbs) arrives from Shiloh Christian High School, AR, targeting Tulsa’s desperate need for defensive playmakers
Banks Bowen (QB, 6’3″, 208 lbs) represents the future under center, coming from Lawrence High School, KS

Even more promising are the immediate-impact transfers joining the program:

Micah Tease (WR) brings SEC-level athleticism from Texas A&M
Sevion Morrison (RB) provides Big 12 experience after his stint at Kansas
Byron Turner Jr. (DE) arrives from Florida State as a potential defensive game-changer

Integrating these new pieces—particularly the transfer portal additions on defense—will be crucial to any year-one improvement under Lamb’s leadership.

Their development represents the first test of the new coaching staff’s player development abilities.

Cleaning Up The NIL Mess

Behind the scenes, Tulsa must address the NIL controversy that plagued the program throughout 2024.

Multiple players, including quarterback Cooper Legas and linebacker Myles Jackson, publicly alleged that former coach Kevin Wilson made verbal promises regarding NIL compensation that were never fulfilled. Wilson denied these claims, creating a cloud of distrust that potentially affected team morale and performance.

To prevent similar issues moving forward, Tulsa has established more robust NIL frameworks:

Partnerships with platforms like INFLCR and Opendorse to facilitate legitimate sponsorship connections
Creation of the Golden Hurricane Exchange to connect student-athletes with potential sponsors
Establishment of Hurricane Impact, an independent nonprofit collective, to solicit and distribute NIL funds

How Lamb and the administration navigate this evolving landscape will significantly impact their ability to attract and retain top talent.

In today’s college football ecosystem, effective NIL management isn’t optional—it’s essential for program stability and competitive recruiting.

The 2025 Schedule: A Balanced Opportunity

Tulsa’s 12-game slate offers a strategic mix of challenges and opportunities.

For the first time since 2004, all six home games at H.A. Chapman Stadium are scheduled for Saturday kickoffs, creating consistency for fans and players alike. These key matchups will likely shape the season’s trajectory:

August 30: Season opener vs. Abilene Christian (home)
September 6: Early road test at New Mexico State
November 15: Historic first-ever meeting with Oregon State (home)

This balanced schedule provides Lamb’s program with winnable non-conference games to build momentum while offering measurement opportunities against higher-caliber opposition.

How the Golden Hurricane performs in these contests will offer the first objective evidence of whether Lamb’s rebuilding project is ahead of schedule, on track, or facing unexpected hurdles.

Five Keys To Unlocking 2025 Success

Tulsa’s path from 3-9 doormat to competitive program requires five improvements.

Defensive Resurrection Nothing matters more than fixing a defense that ranked near the bottom nationally in nearly every statistical category. Coordinators Reardon and Gray must implement schemes that maximize available talent while masking inevitable deficiencies during this rebuilding phase.
Transfer Integration The transfer portal additions must acclimate quickly and perform above their previous levels, particularly on defense, where immediate impact is required to remain competitive.
Offensive Identity Establishment Developing a clear, consistent offensive approach that plays to the roster’s strengths is essential in a conference known for offensive firepower. Tulsa cannot afford offensive inconsistency with its defensive limitations.
Cultural Transformation Lamb must change the program’s culture and expectations, leveraging his track record of rapid turnarounds to instill belief in players accustomed to defeat.
NIL Infrastructure Development Creating transparent, effective NIL processes will help attract and retain talent while avoiding the controversies that plagued the previous regime.

Success in 2025 doesn’t necessarily mean a championship season but establishing these foundational elements for sustainable program growth.

The metrics for year one success should be measured in competitiveness rather than wins and losses.

Realistic Expectations For Hurricane Fans

Patience might be the most important virtue for Tulsa supporters in 2025.

While Lamb’s history of rapid turnarounds provides cause for optimism, Golden Hurricane fans should maintain measured expectations. The defensive holes are too numerous, and the cultural changes too fundamental, to expect an overnight transformation from 3-9 to conference contention.

Consider these benchmarks for a successful 2025 campaign:

Achieving bowl eligibility (6-6) would represent significant progress
Defensive improvement from 131st nationally to top-100 would signal real growth
Competitive play in AAC contests, even in defeat, would demonstrate culture change
Player development is visible through individual statistical improvement
Recruiting momentum building toward the 2026 class

Establishing a foundation of competitive play and demonstrating clear progress throughout the season will be more important than the win total.

Every rebuilding project requires realistic timeline expectations—even for a coach with Lamb’s track record of quick fixes.

The New Hurricane Warning

A storm is brewing in Tulsa that might blow away years of mediocrity.

In Tre Lamb, the Golden Hurricane has secured a young, energetic coach with a demonstrated knack for program building and a history of exceeding expectations. With a strategic influx of talent through both high school recruitment and the transfer portal, coupled with a manageable schedule featuring six home games, the pieces are in place for Tulsa to begin its climb back toward relevance.

While 2025 represents just the first step in a longer journey, it offers something that the program has been missing for years: legitimate hope.

The Tre Lamb era begins now, and with it comes the potential for a Golden Hurricane resurgence that transforms a team from punching bag to puncher.

Football in Tulsa might just be fun again.

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PIRATES LOOK TO BUILD ON LATE-SEASON MOMENTUM: 2025 EAST CAROLINA FOOTBALL PREVIEW

Mark Haines on March 20, 2025

East Carolina football’s remarkable transformation under Blake Harrell has Pirate Nation believing 2025 could be special.

The numbers tell a stunning story of what happened when Harrell took over seven games into last season:

A team struggling at 3-4 suddenly won 5 of their final 6 games
The defense skyrocketed to 12th nationally in defensive touchdowns
The offense maintained an impressive 32.0 points per game
A thrilling Military Bowl victory over NC State capped the turnaround
Harrell earned a four-year, $1.3 million contract for his efforts

What should excite every ECU fan isn’t just what happened—it’s how quickly it happened.

Harrell’s defensive genius unlocked ECU’s potential almost overnight

When Blake Harrell became interim head coach, the Pirates’ defense became one of the nation’s most opportunistic units.

Under Harrell’s guidance, ECU’s defense accomplished things that seemed impossible just weeks earlier:

Ranked 13th nationally in red zone defense (0.745)
Generated 14 interceptions (27th in FBS)
Created 22 total turnovers (27th in FBS)
Averaged 7.2 tackles for loss per game (14th in FBS)
Posted a defensive play-calling efficiency of 82.9% (12th nationally)

According to your source materials, Harrell will not call plays on game day for the first time in years as he focuses on his head coaching duties—a change that might make the Pirates even more dangerous.

This defensive foundation gives ECU something it hasn’t had in years: an identity.

The coaching staff strikes a perfect balance of continuity and fresh ideas

Keeping offensive coordinator John David Baker might be Harrell’s most underrated decision yet.

The offensive numbers under Baker speak for themselves:

436.4 total yards per game (balanced between pass and run)
264.0 passing yards per game
172.4 rushing yards per game
An offense that kept the Pirates in games despite early deficits

Meanwhile, new defensive coordinator Josh Aldridge arrives from Liberty with a reputation for aggressive schemes that complement Harrell’s philosophy.

This balanced approach—keeping what works while upgrading what needs fixing—suggests a coach with clarity about his program’s direction.

Every championship team must overcome its fatal flaws

What stands between ECU and true AAC contention isn’t talent but consistency.

The Pirates’ most glaring weaknesses from 2024 must be addressed:

A turnover ratio of -8 (including 23 interceptions) killed promising drives
Early-game struggles led to uphill battles (most notably a 31-0 deficit against Army)
Defensive lapses appeared even during the late-season surge
Quarterback decision-making remained inconsistent despite productive yardage

How Harrell attacks these issues during spring and fall camp will determine whether ECU can challenge the AAC’s elite.

The transfer portal has become ECU’s secret weapon

While some programs struggle with the new transfer reality, the Pirates have embraced it as a competitive advantage.

Harrell’s staff added 15 impact transfers who could transform the roster overnight:

Former 4-star Oklahoma receiver Jaquaize Pettaway brings elite speed
FCS All-American defensive back Jordy Lowery adds proven playmaking
Maryland transfer Kyle Long immediately strengthens the offensive line
Western Carolina transfers bring championship experience to Greenville

Combined with the AAC’s 4th-ranked recruiting class, which features 38 signees, the talent infusion gives ECU its deepest roster in years.

Seven 2024 bowl teams await on a schedule built for national attention

The Pirates won’t sneak up on anyone in 2025.

ECU’s challenging schedule represents both opportunity and obstacle:

A season-opening rematch against NC State offers immediate revenge
Three 2024 Top 25 teams (BYU, Army, Memphis) provide measuring-stick games
Seven opponents reached bowl games last season
The AAC slate includes improved competition across the board

For a program seeking respect, this schedule provides the perfect platform.

Why 2025 could become a breakthrough season for Pirate football

Everything about ECU’s program is pointing in the right direction.

The foundation Harrell established in just six games as interim coach—winning five—suggests a program that immediately responded to his leadership style. Expectations should be higher, not lower, with an entire offseason to implement his complete system.

College Football News currently ranks ECU 8th in its pre-spring AAC evaluation, but this team seems positioned to exceed outside expectations.

If the Pirates can solve their turnover issues and maintain the momentum from their bowl victory, 2025 could mark East Carolina’s return to conference championship contention.

After years of searching for direction, Pirate Nation has a clear vision of what ECU football can become.

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