Blog Article

Cal Football 2025: A Program at the Crossroads

Mark Haines on February 21, 2025

Every college football program has a breaking point.

That point for the California Golden Bears, aka Cal Football, is a .490 winning percentage—what industry insiders call the “Minimum Acceptable” (MA) winning percentage. This proprietary metric, developed by Coaches Hot Seat (the authority on coaching job security), is a data-driven warning system. The countdown typically begins when a coach’s record falls below this threshold.

Justin Wilcox’s winning percentage currently sits at .457.

The Numbers Tell A Story (And It’s Not A Happy One)

Let’s look at Cal’s progression over the past three seasons:

Cal Football’s future depends on addressing these challenges and improving their overall performance.

2022: 4-8 overall (2-7 in conference)
2023: 6-7 overall (4-5 in conference)
2024: 6-7 overall (2-6 in conference)

This isn’t just a pattern—it’s a problem. Wilcox’s tenure has been defined by incremental improvements followed by stagnation. The trajectory suggests a program stuck in neutral rather than building towards sustained success.

The $15 Million Question

Here’s what makes Cal’s situation particularly fascinating:

Wilcox is under contract through 2027
His 2025 compensation package totals $4.8 million
His buyout sits at approximately $15 million
His winning percentage remains below the critical .490 threshold

The Bears find themselves caught between the cost of change and the price of staying the same. Administrators loathe paying hefty buyouts, but they also know stagnation can cost even more—lost ticket sales, declining donations, and recruiting struggles. It’s a classic case of fiscal conservatism vs. competitive ambition.

But Here’s Where It Gets Interesting

Sensing the pressure, Wilcox has made his boldest move yet: a complete offensive overhaul.

The headline-grabber? Bryan Harsin as offensive coordinator. The subplot? Nick Rolovich as a senior offensive assistant.

Harsin, the former Auburn and Boise State head coach, brings a proven offensive system but arrives with baggage after a tumultuous SEC tenure. Rolovich getting a shot at a new coaching gig is fascinating—not just because of his high-risk, high-reward offensive mind but also because his tenure at Washington State ended over his refusal to comply with state vaccine mandates, not because of poor coaching.

Here’s what these moves tell us:

Wilcox finally acknowledges the need for wholesale offensive change.
The program is willing to take calculated risks on controversial but talented coaches.
The “defensive-minded” head coach is ceding offensive control.

The Numbers That Matter

Take a look at this offensive progression (or regression):

The decline in rushing yards from 2023 to 2024 is alarming. The offense isn’t just struggling—it’s losing its identity. For a team that relies on ball control and keeping its defense fresh, that’s a major red flag.

But here’s the silver lining—defensive improvement:

Wilcox’s defenses remain his calling card, and the strides made in 2024 suggest a unit capable of keeping Cal competitive. But in today’s college football landscape, defense alone doesn’t win championships—or job security.

The X-Factor Nobody’s Talking About

Rich Lyons.

Cal’s new chancellor isn’t just any administrator—he’s the first Cal undergraduate to hold the position in nearly a century. And he’s already talking about making football “self-supporting.”

This matters for three reasons:

It signals potential changes in program evaluation. Wilcox isn’t just competing against expectations; he’s competing against financial sustainability models.
It suggests new approaches to resource allocation. Don’t expect deep-pocketed institutional support if the football program can’t prove its worth.
It adds another layer of pressure to perform. Wilcox now has a boss who understands the program’s impact on the university and might not be as patient as previous chancellors.

Here’s What Nobody Wants To Say Out Loud

The 2025 season isn’t just another year for Cal football.

It’s a referendum.

On Wilcox.
On the program’s direction.
On whether Cal can compete in the modern college football landscape.

With realignment reshaping conferences, NIL deals changing recruiting, and fan engagement at a premium, the Golden Bears can’t afford to drift any further into mediocrity. A failure to break through in 2025 could push the program toward drastic change.

The Bottom Line

The tools for success are there:

New offensive philosophy
Improved defensive metrics
Fresh administrative perspective
Second year in the ACC (without having to face Miami, Clemson, or Florida State)

But here’s the truth nobody wants to acknowledge:

None of it matters if Cal can’t finally break through that .490 threshold.

Because in college football, you either evolve or dissolve.

And 2025 will tell us which path Cal has chosen.

Finally…

Don’t miss another deep dive into college football’s most crucial storylines and program developments. Our team-by-team analysis gives you the insider perspective to understand where each program is headed in 2025 and beyond. Subscribe for free now to access our comprehensive breakdowns, exclusive hot seat rankings, and in-depth conference analysis delivered straight to your inbox. Join thousands of college football insiders who trust Coaches Hot Seat to keep them ahead of the game. Hit the link below to unlock all our premium content and never miss another update.

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Blog Article

Want to know what 2025 means for Boston College football?

Mark Haines on February 21, 2025

The numbers tell a story that changes everything about Boston College’s 2025 football outlook—and it’s not the story most people are telling.

The Hidden Truth Behind BC’s 2024 Success

When people talk about Boston College’s 2024 season, they focus on the flashy headlines:

The stunning upset over #10 Florida State (28-13)
Making it to the Pinstripe Bowl
A winning conference record that shocked the ACC
Four explosive offensive performances to close the season (37, 28, 41, and 34 points)

But here’s what they’re missing: BC built their success on a foundation deeper than big moments.

The Real Numbers That Matter

The Eagles didn’t just run the ball well—they dominated on the ground:

Averaged 166.1 rushing yards per game across 13 games
Exploded for 263 yards against Florida State’s elite defense
Crushed Syracuse with 313 yards on the ground
Dominated Duquesne with 302 rushing yards
Accumulated 2,159 total rushing yards for the season

But here’s what makes this even more interesting: BC’s defense showed they could be absolute game-wreckers:

Snatched 17 interceptions (ranked among ACC leaders)
Generated 31 sacks (including 16.5 from Donovan Ezeiruaku alone)
Created chaos with 72 tackles for loss
Held opponents to just 114.9 rushing yards per game

Why 2025 Is More Complicated Than Anyone Realizes

Yes, the transfer portal has thrown BC into chaos. The losses are significant:

Thomas Castellanos (1,366 yards, 18 TDs, 61.5% completion rate) to Florida State
Kye Robichaux (744 yards, 10 TDs, 4.3 yards per carry) to graduation
Donovan Ezeiruaku (16.5 sacks, 21 TFL) to the NFL
Four key defensive backs who combined for 7 interceptions

But here’s what the doom-and-gloom predictions are missing:

The Eagles have proven strengths they can build on:

A dominant rushing attack that returns key pieces like Treshaun Ward (406 yards, 5.3 YPC)
A defense that creates turnovers at an elite level
Special teams that consistently win the field position battle (16.4 yards per kick return)
An almost unbeatable home-field advantage (5-2 at Alumni Stadium)
A receiving corps that showed flashes (Lewis Bond: 67 catches, 689 yards)

The Real Challenges That Will Define 2025

Three specific weaknesses need fixing:

A Pass Defense in Transition:

Gave up 245.8 yards per game through the air
Allowed 17 passing touchdowns
Lost four key defensive backs to the transfer portal
Must rebuild while facing elite ACC quarterbacks

Quarterback Consistency Issues:

Completion percentages ranged from 84.6% to 46.4%
The two-QB system never found the perfect rhythm
Castellanos and James combined for 2,591 yards but struggled in key moments
Need Dylan Lonergan to master O’Brien’s system quickly

Road Game Struggles:

1-4 record away from Alumni Stadium
Averaged just 21 points per game on the road
Defense allowed 32.8 points per game in road losses
Must solve this to compete in expanded ACC

Why Brad Crawford’s 24/7 3-9 Prediction Misses the Mark

The numbers tell a different story about BC’s foundation:

O’Brien’s Transfer Portal Victories:

Dylan Lonergan: Former 4-star QB with elite arm talent
Ty Lockwood: SEC-tested tight end who knows Lonergan
VJ Wilkins: FCS All-American (90 catches, 1,055 yards)
Chuck Nnaeto: Immediate impact edge rusher
Tommy Matheson: Ivy League-trained offensive line depth

Returning Defensive Talent:

Amari Jackson leads experienced secondary
Khari Johnson brings veteran leadership
Jordan Thomas brings NFL coaching experience to D-line

Special Teams Excellence:

16.4 yards per kick return
5.9 yards per punt return
Field position advantage in 9 of 13 games

The Bottom Line: What Vegas Isn’t Seeing

Teams that can run the ball (166.1 YPG), create turnovers (17 INTs), and dominate at home (5-2) don’t collapse to 3-9.

The real question isn’t whether BC will fall apart—it’s how high they can climb if they:

Develop quarterback consistency under O’Brien’s tutelage
Transform their road performance (1-4 to even 3-2 changes everything)
Maintain defensive playmaking despite key losses
Continue their rushing dominance with a new backfield

The spring practice period will reveal whether this roster reconstruction can maintain Boston College’s upward trajectory in an increasingly competitive ACC.

But one thing’s certain: The numbers show a program with a stronger foundation than the critics realize.

The O’Brien Factor: Beyond the Numbers

Here’s what makes Bill O’Brien’s situation at Boston College fascinating heading into 2025:

Most media outlets focus on the obvious:

His 7-6 record in year one
The Florida State upset
His NFL and Alabama pedigree

But they’re missing the deeper story of what makes a coach successful at BC.

Understanding BC’s Coaching Metrics

At Coaches Hot Seat, we measure coaching performance through two key metrics that you won’t find anywhere else:

MA (Minimum Acceptable Winning Percentage): The baseline winning percentage a coach needs to maintain job security
WPT (Winning Percentage Target): The winning percentage that would make the fanbase genuinely happy

In O’Brien’s case, there’s good news on both fronts:

He exceeded expectations in year one
The Syracuse rivalry win boosted his standing
His 7-6 record (.538) showed immediate improvement

The Contract Situation

While private schools like BC keep contract details close to the vest, here’s what we know about O’Brien’s deal:

Estimated $5 million annual base salary (his highest as head coach)
Contains a unique clause preventing NFL departures
Includes BC’s largest-ever assistant coach salary pool
Features performance incentives backloaded into later years

Why This Matters for 2025

O’Brien’s position heading into 2025 is stronger than most realize:

His seat is cool after beating year one expectations
The Syracuse rivalry win provides breathing room
He hasn’t yet faced other major rivals (Notre Dame, UMass, Holy Cross)
The contract structure suggests BC and O’Brien see this as a long-term relationship

But here’s what makes 2025 crucial: O’Brien must prove year one wasn’t a fluke while managing BC’s most significant roster turnover in years.

The combination of contractual stability and early success gives O’Brien something rare in college football: time to build his program the right way. Whether he can capitalize on that opportunity will define BC’s trajectory for years.

Finally…

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Blog Article

Finally a Friday! – Week 5 Friday Game Preview

Mark Haines on September 27, 2024

Virginia Tech at Miami: A Hurricane Brewing in the ACC

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Blog Article

Friday Night Lights, College Football Preview: Upsets Brewing, Showdowns Looming, and Swagger Overflowing

Mark Haines on September 6, 2024

Friday Night Lights Over A High School Football Game With Copy Space, Football Background

BYU and SMU Collide in a Big 12-ACC Showdown That’ll Leave You Buzzing

A Short Week, High Stakes, and a Whole Lotta Texas Swagger

Dallas, baby. Where else would you want to kick off a Friday night college football fiesta? This ain’t your grandpa’s BYU-SMU matchup, folks. We’ve got Big 12 ambition clashing with ACC aspirations, all under the dazzling Friday night lights.

BYU: The Cougars Ain’t Kitten Around

Kalani Sitake’s crew rolls into town with a swagger that says, “We’re Big 12 now, y’all.” They steamrolled Southern Illinois, but this isn’t Carbondale. Quarterback Jake Retzlaff looked sharp in Week 1, but can he sling it against a real defense? And let’s talk about that BYU run game – it’s like a two-headed monster with LJ Martin and Hinckley Ropati. SMU’s defense better be ready to rumble.

Sitake’s got his eye on:

SMU’s quarterback carousel: They’ve got two dudes back there, and Sitake’s defense needs to be ready for anything.
Finishing drives: The Cougars left some points on the field last week. That won’t fly against a hungry Mustangs squad.
Special teams: It’s not glamorous, but those return yards matter. Sitake wants to see some juice.

SMU: Mustangs Lookin’ to Gallop

Rhett Lashlee’s Mustangs are the Vegas favorites, and they’re chomping at the bit to show the ACC what they’re made of. They squeaked by Nevada, then ran wild against Houston Christian. Now, they’re facing a real test in BYU.

Lashlee’s got his mind on:

Picking a QB: Is it Preston Stone or Kevin Jennings? Lashlee needs to make a call, and he needs to make it fast.
Balance: The Mustangs’ ground game was dominant last week, but they can’t forget about the passing attack.
BYU’s multiple threats: This ain’t no one-trick pony offense. Lashlee’s defense needs to be prepared for anything.
History: SMU is 0-4 all-time against BYU. Time to break that streak.

The Hot Seat Sizzle

Neither coach is sweating bullets yet, but this game could set the tone for their seasons. A BYU win would send shockwaves through the Big 12, while SMU needs a victory to prove they belong in the ACC.

So grab your popcorn, folks. This Friday night showdown in Dallas is going to be a good one.

Prediction: It will be close, but I’m giving the edge to SMU. They’re at home, they’re motivated, and they’ve got something to prove. Mustangs win a nail-biter, 31-28.

Hoosiers Look to Roll Against Leathernecks in Lopsided Matchup

Bloomington, Indiana: Where the expectations are sky-high, but the schedule… well, let’s just say it’s a bit softer than advertised.

Indiana: FCS Foes, No Sweat

Curt Cignetti arrived in Bloomington preaching a winning culture. He even got off to a hot start, snagging a W in his debut. But now, instead of gearing up for a Louisville showdown, they’re hosting Western Illinois. Look, the Hoosiers are supposed to dominate this one. They’ve got a 14-game winning streak against FCS teams, and Western Illinois is riding a 25-game losing skid. This ain’t David vs Goliath; it’s more like Goliath vs. Goliath’s little cousin who’s still learning to tie his shoes.

Cignetti’s got his mind on:

Keeping the starters healthy: This is a tune-up game, folks. There’s no need to risk anyone for a blowout.
Tayven Jackson’s debut: If the score gets out of hand, it’s time for the redshirt sophomore QB to get some reps. He’s the future, after all.
Not looking ahead: Easy to say, harder to do when you’re facing a team that gave up 700 yards last week.

Western Illinois: Leathernecks Looking for a Miracle

Bless their hearts, the Leathernecks are in a tough spot. They’re facing a Big Ten team on the road and haven’t won a game since October 2021. This is the kind of matchup where you hope to keep it respectable, maybe force a turnover or two, and pray for a miracle.

The Coaching Landscape

Cignetti’s still in the honeymoon phase, building his program and establishing his culture. This game is more about fine-tuning and giving younger players a chance to shine. For Western Illinois’ coach, Myers Hendrickson, every game is a chance to build towards that elusive victory and turn the tide for his program.

The Elephant in the Room

Indiana fans were looking forward to Power Five opponent, Louisville. Instead, they got Western Illinois. This scheduling change has raised eyebrows and left a sour taste in some mouths.

Prediction: Indiana wins big. Like, really big. 52-10. The only drama will be how long the starters play and whether Tayven Jackson gets his moment in the spotlight.

Friday Night Lights, Big Ten – ACC Style (With a Dash of Southern Charm)

This ain’t your typical Friday night lights matchup. We’ve got the Duke Blue Devils, fresh off a win in Manny Diaz’s debut, heading north to Evanston to tangle with the Northwestern Wildcats. And let me tell ya, there’s more intrigue here than a season of “Friday Night Lights” – Coach Taylor would be proud.

Northwestern: Breaking the Streak, Building a Legacy

David Braun’s got the reins at Northwestern, and he’s aiming to do more than break their five-game losing streak against Duke. He’s looking to build a legacy. Breaking that streak is a damn good start. They squeaked by UTEP in Week 1, but can they handle Duke’s high-flying offense? QB Mike Wright needs to hold onto the ball (two fumbles last week, yikes!), and that defense better be ready for a shootout.

Duke: New Coach, New QB, Same Old Swagger

Manny Diaz has brought a Texas-sized swagger to Durham, and QB Maalik Murphy is slinging it like he’s back in the Lone Star State. They rolled over Elon in Week 1, but Northwestern’s defense is a different beast. Can Murphy keep the magic going on the road? And let’s not forget about that Duke defense – they racked up eight sacks last week. Northwestern’s O-line better bring their A-game.

The Hot Seat Sizzle

Braun’s in his first full season, so the seat’s not exactly scorching yet, but a win against an ACC opponent would sure make a statement. As for Diaz, he’s got that new coach glow, but a loss here could dim the lights a bit.

X-Factors

The Weather: It’s gonna be rainy in Evanston. Advantage: Northwestern’s ground game.
Turnovers: Both teams need to protect the ball. A sloppy game could swing the momentum.
Home Field Advantage: Northwestern’s got the crowd on their side. Will it be enough?

Prediction: This one’s gonna be a nail-biter. I’m leaning towards Northwestern in an upset. They’re hungry, they’re at home, and that rain could play right into their hands. Wildcats win a close one, 20-17.

Schedule – Friday, September 6

All Times are PDT

BYU at SMU

Time: 4:00 PM

Watch on: ESPN2

Location: Gerald J. Ford Stadium

Western Illinois vs Indiana

Time: 4:00 PM

Watch on: Big Ten Network

Location: Memorial Stadium (Bloomington, IN)

Duke vs Northwestern

Time: 6:00 PM

Watch on: Fox Sports 1

Location: Northwestern Medicine Field at Martin Stadium

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Blog Article

2024 ACC Pre-Season Meeting of the Mascots

Jason Lucero on September 5, 2024

Meeting Minutes:

Duke Blue Devil:

As this year’s chair, I call the meeting to order. The first order of business is to welcome the latest members to the conference, Cal, Stanford, and Southern Methodist University. Then we’ll get onto pending litigation. Put the shillelagh down, Leprechaun. You know our policy on weapons in the committee room.

Notre Dame Leprechaun:

I was fully clothed at the time of the accident! Any allegation to the contrary is slander! It was not a full-size bus. That’s a gross exaggeration. It was a minibus, and I’ll have no witty remarks regarding my stature!

Duke Blue Devil:

Duly noted Leprechaun. The chair recognizes The Demon Deacon of Wake Forest.

Demon Deacon of Wake Forest:

I object to the presence of Cal and Stanford in our conference. Do I have to say it? They’re from the West! The home of sin and perdition. This is the Atlantic Coast Conference. Having Pacific Coast teams among us is wrong! It’s contrary to nature! It’s Blaspheme, that’s what it is!

Hokie Bird of Virginia Tech:

Give it a rest, deacon. You went 4 and 8 last year. Times are changing.

Duke Blue Devil:

The chair recognizes the Clemson Tiger. Thank you for raising your paw.

Clemson Tiger:

Yeah, man. Oski the Bear. I get that—a bear. I’m a tiger, and he’s a bear. But what the hell is going on with Stanford? A tree? You come in here as a tree?

Stanford Tree:

I have googly eyes! I’m both relatable and ironic!

Clemson Tiger:

No man. That’s abstract. You got to be something real. Like a tiger, for example. People understand tigers.

Ramblin’ Reck of Georgia Tech

I’m with Syracuse. Nobody likes concepts. I’m a wreck, a wrecked car. It’s a thing. People like wrecked cars!

Notre Dame Leprechaun

I rest my fecking case.

Duke Blue Devil

Language Leprechaun!

Otto the Orange of Syracuse:

I protest that reasoning! I’m orange! I’m not an orange. I’m not the orange. I’m just orange. I’m a concept. A tree is a concept too! You all need to open your minds!

Duke Blue Devil

6-7 last year Syracuse. You might consider running the ball. The chair recognizes Mrs. Wuf, from North Carolina State.

Mrs. Wuf of NC State

I rise to speak to the issue of academic excellence. Our friends from the west come with august records of academic achievement. Some among us have allowed our standards to lapse.

Osceola and Renegade – Florida State

Here we go again, everyone hating on Florida.

Sebastian the Ibis – University of Miami

Excellence has a price. Sometimes the students have to pay it. That’s all I’m saying.

Duke Blue Devil

Put out the cigar Sebastian. There is no smoking in the committee room! The chair recognizes the Wahoo.

The Wahoo – University of Virginia

Let’s get down to the real issue here, competitiveness. I’m talking TV ratings and NIL. Cash in hand! Daddy needs a new stadium. Who is to say these new teams can run with the ACC?

Duke Blue Devil

Okay. Uh, for Southern Methodist University we have Peruna the Mustang. Can you speak to that question?

Peruna of SMU

Thank you Blue Devil. It’s a pleasure to be here. We went 9-0 last year, and won our division. We deserve to play in the ACC.

The Hokie Bird of Virginia Tech

You were in the AAC! You beat Tulsa, Temple, and the University of East Carolina. If your schedule was any lighter you’d be playing high school teams!

Duke Blue Devil

Settle down everyone! Settle down! Oskie? Any comment?

Oski the Bear – Cal

We’re rebuilding. We have a great team this year and we’re looking forward to returning to the Rose Bowl!

The Hokie Bird of Virginia Tech

The last time you were in the Rose Bowl was 1959. When are you going to be done rebuilding, the year 3000?

Ms. Wuf – North Carolina State.

I find Oski’s cardigan very attractive.

Duke Blue Devil

Ms. Wuf, where is Mr. Wuf today?

Ms. Wuf

We’re exploring our sexuality through an open relationship. He’s up chasing a Husky in Connecticut. Oski? Are you into experimentation?

The Demon Deacon of Wake Forest

Abomination! We cannot have inter-conference, inter-species, intermingling! I object! I object! I object!

Duke Blue Devil.

4 and 8 last season. Maybe a little less from the pulpit and a little more from your backfield. Stanford?

The Stanford Tree

We have twenty Nobel laurites on our faculty!

The Clemson Tiger

You went 3 and 9, second worst in our division!

The Stanford Tree

Our band is extremely unconventional!

Duke Blue Devil

Settle down everyone, settle down! Well, it’s not like we have a choice in the matter. They’re in the conference now and that’s that. Oskie, we’ll give you the last word.

Oski the Bear – Cal

Thank you, thank you. Well, it’s no secret that we miss the Pac- 10. We miss bus rides up and down the coast, playing the other schools in the West as the sun set over the Pacific. I guess the only comfort we can find is that no matter how stupid it is for us to play in the ACC, how illogical, how ridiculous it is… at least Stanford has to do it too.

Duke Blue Devil

Quiet everyone, quiet! Leprechaun! Are you peeing in the closet?

The Leprechaun of Notre Dame

I had a late breakfast.

Duke Blue Devil

Hey Clemson! Florida, and Florida State. Sit down. The meeting isn’t over. Where do you think you’re going?

The Clemson Tiger

The SEC is having a tailgate. We thought we would stop by and do some networking.

Sebastian the Ibis – University of Miami

This is fun and all, but keep one word in mind going forward: “realignment.”

The Duke Blue Devil

Meeting adjourned!

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