Blog Article

Eric Morris Has Never Beaten a Ranked Team

Mark Haines on January 16, 2026

Now He’s the Head Coach at Oklahoma State.

Eric Morris is one of the most exciting offensive minds in college football.

He developed quarterbacks who became first-round NFL picks. He coordinated top-10 offenses at three different programs. He took North Texas from a 5-7 afterthought to an 11-2 juggernaut averaging 503 yards per game—the best offense in the country. When Oklahoma State fired Mike Gundy mid-season and went looking for someone to resurrect a program that had gone 0-17 in Big 12 play over two years, Morris was the guy.

But there’s a number in his résumé that should concern every Cowboys fan.

Zero.

That’s how many ranked opponents Eric Morris has beaten as a head coach.

503 Yards Per Game. First in the Nation.

Let’s be clear about something: Morris can coach offense.

His 2025 North Texas team scored 30-plus points in every single game. They hung 50 on six opponents. They led the nation in total offense and turned Drew Mestemaker into the FBS passing leader. This wasn’t a fluke—Morris did the same thing at Incarnate Word, where he developed Cam Ward before Ward transferred to Washington State and became a Heisman finalist. His fingerprints are on Baker Mayfield’s early development at Texas Tech. Same with Patrick Mahomes.

The man knows how to build a quarterback and design an offense.

His system has evolved from pure Air Raid into something more balanced—a high-tempo spread that can actually run the football. At North Texas, he proved he could win the time-of-possession battle when he needed to. He proved he could close out games. He proved he could build a roster through the portal and develop mid-tier recruits into all-conference players.

None of that is in question.

0-4 Against Ranked Teams. 5-6 on the Road.

Here’s where it gets complicated.

Morris went 22-16 at North Texas. Solid record. But when you break it down by situation, patterns emerge that matter for a coach stepping into the Big 12.

Home vs. Road: Morris was 17-9 at home (.654) but just 5-6 on the road (.455). That’s a 20-point swing in win percentage. At Oklahoma State, he’ll need to win in Lubbock, Austin, Morgantown, and Provo just to stay competitive. The American Athletic Conference road environment is not the Big 12 road environment.

Ranked Opponents: 0-4. Morris has never beaten a ranked team as a head coach. Not once. North Texas played four ranked opponents during his tenure, and they lost all four. Oklahoma State will likely face 4-6 ranked teams per season in the new Big 12.

Late Season: 6-6 in November and December. When games tighten up and defenses have film, Morris’s teams have been a coin flip. That’s not a death sentence—plenty of good coaches hover around .500 in late-season play. But it’s not the mark of a program-builder who closes strong.

Bowls: 0-1. He left before North Texas’s bowl game in 2025, but his only previous bowl as a head coach was a loss.

Add it up and you get a coach who dominates at home against unranked opponents but hasn’t proven he can win the games that define seasons.

He Inherits a Team That Went 0-17 in Conference

Oklahoma State isn’t just a new job.

It’s a disaster.

Morris inherits a program that went 1-10 in 2025 after the university fired Mike Gundy, a coach with 170 wins and two decades of stability, mid-season. The Cowboys went 0-9 in Big 12 play last year. They went 0-8 the year before. That’s 0-17 against conference opponents over two seasons. The roster has been picked apart by the portal. The culture has cratered. The facilities, once a point of pride, now lag behind a conference that includes Texas, Arizona, Colorado, and Utah.

Morris will get time. Athletic director Chad Weiberg has already signaled that year one is about installing culture and identity, not wins.

But “time” in college football isn’t what it used to be.

The portal moves fast. Recruits make decisions fast. Fanbases lose patience fast. If Morris can’t show progress by year two—if he can’t win 5 or 6 games and beat a ranked opponent—the pressure will build quickly. Oklahoma State isn’t a sleeping giant. It’s a regional program that had one exceptional coach for 21 years, and now it has to prove it can win without him.

The Portal Will Decide Everything

Morris has already started bringing North Texas players through the portal.

That’s smart. Those players know the system, trust the coach, and can help install the offense quickly. If he hits on a quarterback, his specialty, Oklahoma State could have one of the more entertaining offenses in the Big 12 by September. The scheme will work. The tempo will be there. The points will come.

The questions are about everything else.

Can he build a defense that complements his offense instead of giving up everything he scores? Can he win in hostile road environments against teams with more talent? Can he beat a ranked opponent for the first time in his career – and then do it again, and again, against a conference full of them?

His ceiling is real. If he develops a star quarterback and nails the portal, Oklahoma State could be back in the Big 12 title conversation within three years.

His floor is equally real. Without defensive improvement and better results against quality opponents, this becomes a fun 6-6 era – entertaining offenses, close losses, and a fanbase that starts asking whether they hired the right guy.

High Pressure. Three Years to Prove It.

Eric Morris is a legitimately good offensive coach taking a legitimately hard job.

He’s never beaten a ranked opponent. He’s never won more than 55% of his road games. He’s never coached in a Power 4 conference. And now he’s walking into a program that just fired a legend, lost 17 straight conference games, and needs to rebuild from the foundation up – in a conference that includes four former Playoff participants.

The offense will be fine.

Everything else is an open question.

Pressure Level: High. Not because he’s on the hot seat – he’ll get at least three years. But the gap between his track record and his new reality is the widest of any first-year coach in the Big 12. He’s built for this on paper. Now he has to prove it against the best competition he’s ever faced.

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Iowa State Hired Jimmy Rogers 72 Hours After Losing Matt Campbell. Now He Has to Replace a Legend With One Year of FBS Experience”

Mark Haines on December 18, 2025

Iowa State moved fast.

Matt Campbell took the Penn State job, and within days, the Cyclones had their guy. Jimmy Rogers, fresh off a 6-6 debut season at Washington State, now inherits a program that made the Big 12 Championship Game and became a legitimate conference contender under Campbell. The question everyone in Ames is asking: Can a 38-year-old coach with one FBS season under his belt sustain what Campbell built?

Here’s our breakdown.

The Resume

Rogers has won everywhere he’s been.

At South Dakota State, he went 27-3 over two seasons, capturing an FCS national championship in 2023 and reaching the semifinals in 2024. His overall head-coaching record is 33-9. That’s a .786 winning percentage, the kind of number that gets attention from Power Four athletic directors scanning the FCS ranks for the next big thing.

But there’s a caveat.

His lone FBS season produced a 6-6 record at Washington State, a program navigating life as a Pac-2 orphan with legitimate roster and scheduling challenges. Rogers rebuilt that roster with Jackrabbit transfers and freshmen, secured bowl eligibility with a late-season win over Oregon State, and showed an ability to self-correct when early offensive struggles threatened to derail the season.

Not spectacular. But not a disaster either.

What He Does Well

Defense is his calling card.

Rogers built dominant defensive units at South Dakota State, and that reputation followed him to Pullman. He understands how to scheme, develop players within a system, and create an identity on that side of the ball. For a Big 12 that has become increasingly offense-heavy, a defense-first coach could provide an interesting counterbalance.

Key strengths:

  • Defensive scheme expertise and player development
  • Deep Midwest recruiting ties and familiarity with Big 12 culture
  • Youth and energy (38 years old) for a program needing momentum
  • Demonstrated ability to adjust mid-season when things aren’t working

The Concerns

One year of FBS experience is a legitimate worry.

The jump from FCS to FBS is significant. The jump from FBS to Power Four is another leap entirely. Rogers now faces higher-level competition, greater media scrutiny, bigger recruiting battles, and the weight of following a coach who transformed Iowa State from a doormat into a contender. That’s a lot of pressure for someone still learning the FBS landscape.

Risk factors:

  • Limited Power Four head coaching experience
  • Iowa State’s financial resources lag behind Big 12 peers
  • Transfer portal management becomes critical with expected roster attrition
  • Following a legend creates unrealistic short-term expectations

The Washington State Tape

His 2025 season in Pullman tells us something important.

Rogers can keep a program afloat in adverse conditions. Washington State was a mess when he arrived: roster turnover, scheduling chaos, conference uncertainty. He didn’t elevate them to contender status, but he didn’t let the program crater either. Early offensive struggles (conservative run emphasis, quarterback questions, talent mismatches) were eventually addressed through real-time adjustments.

That adaptability matters at Iowa State.

The Breakdown

Here’s how Rogers stacks up across key categories:

CATEGORYSTRENGTHSCONCERNS
Record33-9 overall, FCS national championOnly 6-6 at FBS level
DefenseHighly regarded scheme and developmentMust adapt to Big 12 offenses
ExperienceMidwest familiarity, strong recruiting networkLimited Power Four head coaching
Program FitYouthful energy, cultural alignmentSucceeding a legend, portal challenges

The Bottom Line

This hire grades out as a B-minus.

Iowa State moved quickly to secure a coach with a proven ability to win at every stop. Rogers brings defensive credibility, Midwest roots, and the energy of a young coach on the rise. But he’s stepping into one of the toughest situations in college football, replacing a beloved coach, managing portal attrition, and competing with limited resources in an increasingly arms-race conference.

What to watch:

  • Can he retain enough talent through the portal to remain competitive in Year 1?
  • Will his defensive identity translate against Big 12 offensive firepower?
  • How patient will the Iowa State administration and fanbase be?

Year 1 will likely be stabilization mode, defense-first, mid-tier results, and a lot of learning. The real test comes in Years 2 and 3, when we’ll see if Rogers can recruit at the Power Four level and build something sustainable.

The pressure is real. But so is the opportunity.

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Grading the Carousel: Preliminary Hire Grades for the 2024-25 Cycle

Mark Haines on December 3, 2025

The carousel never stops spinning.

We’re tracking 21 coaching changes this cycle — 13 with new coaches already named, 8 still waiting on their guy. What follows are our preliminary grades across three categories: Hire Quality, Process, and Fan/Media Sentiment.

These aren’t final verdicts.

They’re initial reactions. First impressions. The kind of grades that will look either brilliant or idiotic in three years when we revisit them.

We’ll do deep dives on each hire individually in the coming weeks. But for now, here’s where every job stands — from the home runs to the dumpster fires.

The Home Runs

These programs swung big and connected.

Virginia Tech — James Franklin (A / A– / A)

The Hokies didn’t just make a hire. They made a statement.

Landing James Franklin from Penn State signals that Virginia Tech is done being a sleeping giant. The staff and recruiting implications will ripple through the ACC for years. The only question now is whether VT finally acts like the resource program it’s always claimed to be.

How his Penn State staff/recruits follow, what this does to the ACC power structure, and whether VT is finally acting like a “resource program” again.

Oregon State — JaMarcus Shephard (A / A– / A)

The Beavers landed their guy without a nationwide circus.

JaMarcus Shephard comes from Alabama’s staff into the most uncertain moment in Oregon State history. Post-realignment survival depends on portal management and identity preservation. A first-time head coach navigating conference limbo while maintaining Trent Bray’s defensive DNA is a tall order — but OSU handled this search like a program that knows exactly who it is.

Post-realignment survival, recruiting without a stable league home, and whether a first-time HC can maintain Bray’s defensive identity.

LSU — Lane Kiffin (A / D / A)

The hire is an A. The process was a circus.

Lane Kiffin to LSU was the worst-kept secret in college football, which made the public courtship even messier. But the end result? A program with unlimited resources landing one of the sport’s best offensive minds and most ruthless recruiters. The marriage either produces championships or a spectacular implosion. There is no middle ground in Baton Rouge.

Ole Miss fallout, staff poaching wars, and if LSU’s booster culture amplifies or burns out Kiffin’s volatility in a hurry.

Colorado State — Jim Mora Jr. (A / B / B+)

The Mountain West needed a credible name. CSU delivered.

Jim Mora brings NFL pedigree, P4 experience, and a recruiting network that Jay Norvell never fully activated. The question is whether this is a “last tour” victory lap or a legitimate rebuild. Either way, CSU positioned itself to capitalize on a weakened conference landscape.

Can Mora still grind on the trail, how CSU positions itself vs. a weakened MWC, and whether this is a “last tour” or a true rebuild.

Kentucky — Will Stein (A / B– / B)

Mark Stoops cast a long shadow. Will Stein steps into it confidently.

The offensive identity pivot is exactly what Kentucky needed after years of defensive-first football. Stein’s explosiveness ceiling could push the Wildcats from the 7-win band into genuine SEC East contention. The NIL landscape remains a challenge, but this hire signals ambition.

Stoops’ shadow, offensive identity pivot, NIL vs. league peers, and whether Stein can keep Kentucky in the 7–9 win band with a higher explosiveness ceiling.

Auburn — Alex Golesh (A– / B+ / B+)

Auburn got its tempo guy, Alex Golesh, from South Florida.

Golesh’s USF offense translated well enough to earn him a shot at the SEC’s toughest division. The patience level in Auburn is… historically nonexistent. But the process was clean, the hire was decisive, and line-of-scrimmage recruiting will determine whether this becomes a home run or a cautionary tale.

Translation of his USF tempo offense to the SEC West equivalent, patience level in Auburn, and how he recruits the lines of scrimmage.

The Solid Singles

Not flashy. Not embarrassing. Just… fine.

Stanford — Tavita Pritchard (B+ / B / B)

The Cardinal went internal and pragmatic.

Tavita Pritchard inherits Andrew Luck’s GM involvement and Stanford’s perpetual NIL/admissions constraints. The bet is that an NFL-style QB room can overcome portal friction in an ACC that doesn’t care about your academic reputation. It’s a reasonable swing given the circumstances.

Andrew Luck’s GM role, Stanford’s NIL constraints, and whether an NFL-style QB room can overcome admissions/portal friction in the ACC.

UCLA — Bob Chesney (B+ / C / C+)

This is either the next Kalen DeBoer or bargain shopping.

Bob Chesney’s jump from FCS to the Big Ten grind is significant. Here’s the strange part: the process was actually solid — because Martin Jarmond wasn’t running it. And that tells you everything about the real red flags at this job. An ineffective, egomaniacal athletic director. A disconnected, tone-deaf chancellor. A bean counter who only understands counting beans. Chesney’s system might translate just fine. Whether anyone can succeed under this administration is the bigger question.

The massive jump from FCS to the Big Ten grind, and whether anyone can succeed under an ineffective AD, a tone-deaf chancellor, and an administration that only understands counting beans.

Oklahoma State — Eric Morris (B– / B– / B–)

Life after Gundy is officially here.

Eric Morris keeps the Air Raid DNA without the 20-year cultural infrastructure. The question is whether Oklahoma State wants to chase Big 12 titles or just stability. This hire suggests stability. That’s not necessarily wrong — but it’s not inspiring either.

Life after Gundy’s long tenure, keeping the Air Raid DNA without the old culture, and whether OSU wants to chase Big 12 titles or just stability.

Ole Miss — Pete Golding (B / C+ / B)

Continuity hire. Full stop.

Pete Golding’s job is to keep the portal from hemorrhaging and maintain defensive credibility while the offense finds a new identity post-Kiffin. Whether he can be more than a recruiter/DC remains the central question. The Rebels are betting on stability over splash.

Defensive continuity vs. offensive identity change, portal retention after Kiffin, and whether Golding can be more than a recruiter/DC.

Michigan State — Pat Fitzgerald (C / B / B)

The Spartans hired a culture reset.

After back-to-back scandals, Pat Fitzgerald’s “Northwestern-style overachiever” ceiling might be exactly what East Lansing needs. The long-term recruiting upside against Ohio State and Michigan is… limited. But the hire makes sense for a program that desperately needed adults in the room.

Cultural cleanup after back-to-back scandals, ceiling of “Northwestern-style overachiever” in the new Big Ten, and long-term recruiting upside vs. Ohio State/Michigan.

The Fan Base Meltdowns

These aren’t going well.

Florida — Jon Sumrall (C / B+ / D)

The process was fine. The reaction was not.

Sumrall arrives with Steve Spurrier’s public blessing and a mandate to fix Billy Napier’s in-game disasters. But there’s a red flag worth noting: Sumrall’s Tulane teams were consistently among the most penalized in the country — the kind of undisciplined football that suggests coaching issues, not just player mistakes. Florida fans already wanted a bigger name. The D in sentiment reflects a fan base that feels the program settled.

Spurrier publicly blessing the hire, fixing Napier’s in-game messes, and whether Sumrall can weaponize UF’s NIL/portal machine fast enough in the SEC arms race.

Arkansas — Ryan Silverfield (D+ / D / D)

This is a disaster.

The fan backlash isn’t simmering — it’s boiling over into organized protests. Ryan Silverfield’s task is nearly impossible: win quickly in a 16-team SEC with a hostile home base from Day 1. The AD’s survival odds are now directly tied to Silverfield’s record. D across the board, and that might be generous.

Fan backlash/protests, AD survival odds, and if Silverfield can win quickly enough in the new 16-team SEC to quiet a hostile base.

The Clown Shows

No other way to describe these.

Penn State — TBD (INC / F / F)

The Nittany Lions are bleeding.

James Franklin is gone. The portal is circling. And Penn State is playing leverage games with agents while their roster evaporates in real time. At some point, “waiting for the right guy” becomes “watching your program collapse.” That point may have already passed.

Whether PSU finally swings for a top-5 coach, how Sexton’s leverage games play out, and how long they can sit in limbo without bleeding portal talent.

UAB — TBD (INC / F / F)

The Bill Clark era feels like ancient history now.

Former coach Trent Dilfer gets plenty of blame, but AD Mark Ingram deserves more. Together they torched everything Clark built — the goodwill, the culture, the upward trajectory. All of it gone. Now the job sits open and nobody wants it. This isn’t a “hidden gem” search. It’s a punchline. Stadium and resources exist on paper, but the dysfunction has made this one of the least attractive openings in the country.

How attractive the job really is post-Dilfer, stadium/resources vs. recent chaos, and whether UAB leans into offense again or buys a culture guy.

Still on the Board

These jobs remain open. Grades pending.

California (INC / B / B) — Cal’s identity crisis continues. Do they want academics or football? The ACC move demands an answer.

UConn (INC / C+ / C) — Independence is lonely. The next hire determines whether UConn commits to regional recruiting or another failed “national” vision.

North Texas (INC / C / C) — Serial resets in Denton. UNT needs to pick an offensive identity and stick with it.

Coastal Carolina (INC / B– / B–) — The post-Chadwell slump continues. Another spread-option innovator, or something different?

South Florida (INC / B / B) — Golesh left equity in the roster. USF has a window before FSU/UF/Miami clean up their messes.

Memphis (INC / B / B) — The Tigers launch coaches. The question is whether they want another launchpad guy or someone who stays.

The Bottom Line

Thirteen hires graded. Eight more coming.

The best hire so far? Virginia Tech landing James Franklin changes the ACC. The worst situation? Arkansas — and it’s not close.

We’ll revisit these grades in-season. Some will age like wine. Others will age like milk.

The carousel keeps spinning.

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COACHES HOT SEAT: WEEK 13 RANKINGS

Mark Haines on November 18, 2025

The clock just hit midnight on college football’s struggling coaches.

No more “next year” promises. No more “we’re close” platitudes. Week 12 stripped away the illusions and exposed the reality: some programs are moving forward, and others are circling the drain.

Jonathan Smith is 0-7 in Big Ten play. Shane Beamer blew a 27-point halftime lead in the most catastrophic collapse of the season. Mike Norvell’s Florida State is 2-12 in ACC games over two years. Bill Belichick is 0-5 against Power Four opponents in his first college season.

Athletic directors are done selling hope to angry donors. Boosters are done writing checks for mediocrity. The portal opens in three weeks, and players are already making decisions about their futures.

This is where coaching careers get defined—or destroyed.

Here are the ten coaches who entered Week 12 with everything to prove and nothing left to hide behind.

1. Jonathan Smith – Michigan State Spartans (3-7, 0-7 Big Ten)

Jonathan Smith’s seat isn’t just hot anymore. It’s molten.

Michigan State lost to Penn State 28-10 at home Saturday, marking their seventh straight defeat and officially eliminating the Spartans from bowl eligibility. That’s four consecutive seasons without a bowl game and an 0-7 Big Ten record that has Smith at 8-12 overall since arriving from Oregon State.

The numbers: Michigan State owes Smith approximately $32-33 million if they fire him now. That’s one of the most expensive buyouts in the Big Ten. However, the AD and university president, both hired after Smith arrived, have no strong ties to him and are facing mounting pressure to act.

National media outlets universally place Smith at the top of coaching hot seat lists. Fan sentiment has turned nearly uniform in calling for a change. Replacement candidate discussions are already widespread.

Smith will almost certainly coach Michigan State’s final two games, but barring a miracle turnaround, he’s coaching for his next job, not this one.

2. Mike Locksley – Maryland Terrapins (4-6, 1-6 Big Ten)

Mike Locksley just got saved by the very problem that’s destroying college football programs: money.

Maryland announced Sunday that Locksley will return for 2026 despite a six-game losing streak that dropped the Terrapins from 4-0 to 4-6. It’s the second straight season with only one Big Ten win and the 11th consecutive losing season in conference play. Locksley is now 37-47 overall at Maryland and 17-46 in Big Ten games since 2019.

Athletic Director Jim Smith made the decision based on financial reality. Maryland’s athletic department has lost $32.7 million over the past five years. Locksley’s buyout would be $13.4 million. Smith told ESPN the school is “better off pouring already-spent money into building the roster than into bringing in a new coaching staff.”

Translation: We can’t afford to fire him.

The announcement came after “Fire Locksley” chants broke out in the student section during the Indiana game. Locksley’s pressure doesn’t disappear just because he’s surviving 2025. He’s coaching on borrowed time in 2026, and everyone knows it.

3. Shane Beamer – South Carolina Gamecocks (3-7, 1-7 SEC)

Shane Beamer just orchestrated the most spectacular coaching collapse of the 2025 season.

Saturday at Texas A&M, South Carolina led 30-3 at halftime. Then came the second half. Texas A&M scored 28 unanswered points. South Carolina was shut out and managed just 76 total yards after halftime. Final score: 31-30, Aggies. It was the largest comeback in Texas A&M program history.

ESPN’s Paul Finebaum summed it up perfectly: “Shane Beamer right now just looks like a loser.”

South Carolina is now 3-7 and guaranteed a losing season. They’ve lost five straight SEC games and will miss a bowl game for the first time under Beamer. “Fire Beamer” chants have replaced the cheers.

Here’s the financial nightmare: South Carolina extended Beamer through 2030 less than a year ago. His buyout is approximately $27.9 million. Athletic Director Jeremiah Donati is now stuck with one of college football’s most expensive mistakes.

This type of historic collapse changes everything. It’s not just that they lost. It’s HOW they lost.

4. Mike Norvell – Florida State Seminoles (5-5, 2-5 ACC)

Mike Norvell just won a game and it doesn’t matter.

Florida State beat Virginia Tech 34-14 Saturday to improve to 5-5, but the win came against a 3-7 Hokies team that’s almost as bad as the Seminoles. Since being controversially left out of the 2023 College Football Playoff at 13-0, Florida State is 7-15 overall and 2-12 in ACC play.

Athletic Director Michael Alford announced in October that Norvell would remain through the end of 2025, but promised a “comprehensive assessment” after the season. Translation: Norvell is coaching his final games at Florida State.

Here’s why the delay: Money. Norvell’s buyout is approximately $53.3 million after this season. It’s the second-largest buyout in college football history.

Norvell has tried to project confidence, delivering a six-minute “championship expectation” rant recently. The problem is the results. FSU is winless on the road this season and hasn’t won a road game since November 2023.

5. Derek Mason – Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders (2-8, 1-5 Conference USA)

Derek Mason took a sabbatical from coaching after the 2022 season to rest, reflect, and spend time with family.

He should have stayed on sabbatical.

Mason is in his second season at Middle Tennessee and the program has regressed under his leadership. The Blue Raiders went 3-9 in his first year, and they’re currently 2-8 in 2025. That’s 5-17 overall and 3-11 in conference play across two seasons.

Mason replaced Rick Stockstill, who went 113-111 over 18 seasons with 10 bowl appearances. Mason hasn’t come close to matching that standard. Middle Tennessee’s two wins this season came against FCS opponents. Every FBS opponent has beaten them, often badly.

The defense, which should be Mason’s calling card, ranks among the worst in all of college football. Mason’s overall head coaching record is now 30-64 across eight years. At some point, MTSU has to ask if this experiment is worth continuing.

6. Dave Aranda – Baylor Bears (5-5, 3-4 Big 12)

Dave Aranda isn’t getting fired this season, but not for the reasons you’d hope.

After Saturday’s 55-28 home humiliation against Utah, Aranda sits at 5-5 overall and desperately needs one win in the final two games to make a bowl. His defense ranks second-worst in the Big 12 in both scoring and rush defense. For a defensive specialist hired specifically for his defensive expertise, that’s a damning indictment.

Here’s the number that matters most: 21-25. That’s Aranda’s record at Baylor with his own recruits, excluding the COVID season and the 2021 championship season built on Matt Rhule’s inherited roster.

However, Aranda is still employed because athletic director Mack Rhoades took a leave of absence November 12 amid an ongoing investigation. Interim ADs don’t make coaching changes of this magnitude.

It’s not merit. It’s institutional paralysis.

7. Luke Fickell – Wisconsin Badgers (5-6, 3-5 Big Ten)

Luke Fickell went from College Football Playoff coach to coaching for his job in three years.

After leading Cincinnati to the CFP in 2021, Fickell was hired by Wisconsin with enormous expectations. Instead, Wisconsin has regressed. Fickell is now 16-19 overall at Wisconsin and 9-15 in Big Ten play. His teams have produced losing records in two of three full seasons.

The Badgers went scoreless in back-to-back games against Iowa and Ohio State earlier this season, marking the first time that has happened since 1977. Wisconsin hasn’t won a Big Ten home game in over a calendar year.

Here’s the ironic twist: Fickell just received a contract extension through 2032 and a public vote of confidence from AD Chris McIntosh. His buyout is estimated to be around $27.5 million.

Wisconsin is on track for its second straight losing season after 22 consecutive bowl appearances. Fickell gets 2026 to prove he can turn it around, but the pressure will be immense from Day One.

8. Bill Belichick – North Carolina Tar Heels (4-6, 2-4 ACC)

The greatest football coach in history is learning that college football is a different game.

Bill Belichick, winner of six Super Bowls with the Patriots, arrived at North Carolina with enormous fanfare. Instead, he’s 4-6 overall and 0-5 against Power Four opponents. UNC’s losses weren’t just defeats. They were blowouts that exposed fundamental problems with Belichick’s transition to college football.

“It’s an unstructured mess,” a source told WRAL News in October. Reports emerged that Belichick hadn’t “had a conversation with most of the guys on defense.” The Tar Heels rank last in the ACC in total offense and scoring.

At 72 years old, in his first college job ever, Belichick is discovering that recruiting 18-year-olds, managing NIL, and coaching the portal era requires skills he never needed in the NFL.

UNC’s administration sold fans on Belichick, leading them to the playoffs. Instead, they’re fighting for bowl eligibility and dealing with reports of organizational chaos.

9. Justin Wilcox – California Golden Bears (6-4, 3-3 ACC)

Justin Wilcox sits at 6-4 overall and 3-3 in ACC play, a respectable first season navigating conference realignment.

But the pressure has never been higher.

Fan sentiment has turned decisively against Wilcox, with widespread calls for his dismissal dominating the Cal community. This isn’t about the record. It’s about nine years of incremental progress that never accumulates into sustained success.

Then there’s Ron Rivera. Cal’s new General Manager has given Wilcox conditional support, stating that “another victory or two” in the final stretch will be key in determining his future. That’s not a vote of confidence. That’s measured pressure from above.

When your GM says your fate depends on winning one or two games in a 6-4 season, you’re coaching under scrutiny from fans who’ve already moved on and leadership that’s watching closely.

10. Mark Stoops – Kentucky Wildcats (5-5, 2-5 SEC)

Mark Stoops just beat Tennessee Tech 42-10 Saturday, extending Kentucky’s winning streak to four games.

And his pressure level hasn’t budged an inch.

The win over an FCS opponent was expected, and while Stoops praised “this team’s attitude and effort,” beating Tennessee Tech doesn’t change the fundamental calculus around his job security. Fan sentiment remains sharply divided.

What protects Stoops isn’t the four-game winning streak. It’s the $40.5 million buyout that must be paid in full within 60 days if he’s fired. After critical wins at Auburn and over Florida, AD Mitch Barnhart voiced full support, saying Kentucky is “taking steps” back up the mountain.

Kentucky sits one win away from bowl eligibility with two games remaining. The pressure at #10 reflects this: the four-game streak has eased the immediate crisis, but beating an FCS team doesn’t resolve long-term doubts.

WANT TO SEE WHERE YOUR COACH RANKS?

The top 10 are racing against the clock.

But coaching pressure doesn’t stop at #10. A $40.5 million buyout protects Mark Stoops (#10) despite 13 years of middling results. Justin Wilcox (#9) is 6-4 but facing conditional support from his GM. Luke Fickell (#7) just got extended through 2032 despite losing 9 of his last 14 games.

Every FBS coach is ranked based on actual pressure, not speculation about who might be fired.

Subscribers to our newsletter get the full story. Each week, you’ll receive comprehensive profiles of all the top 10 coaches with contract details, buyout numbers, replacement candidates, and insider analysis you won’t find anywhere else. Additionally, our weekly Hot Seat Deep Dive provides an in-depth examination of one coach’s situation. This week: Dave Aranda at Baylor – how administrative chaos became a coaching lifeline, and why institutional paralysis might be the only thing keeping him employed.

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Week 12 Coaches Hot Seat Rankings

Mark Haines on November 10, 2025

Week 11 exposed the pretenders. Week 12 eliminates them. This is the part of the season where athletic directors stop debating and start deciding. Where donor patience either holds or shatters entirely. Where recruits make final judgments about which programs are ascending and which are circling the drain. The “we’re close to turning the corner” narrative that might have worked in October doesn’t survive November. By Week 12, you either have tangible proof of progress or you’re staring at an offseason coaching search. Buyout conversations move from theoretical to tactical. Board meetings shift from “let’s give him more time” to “what’s our exit strategy?” Week 12 separates the coaches who survive the season from those who won’t make it to December. And for these ten coaches? The clock is ticking louder than ever.

1. Jonathan Smith, Michigan State

Jonathan Smith remains at #1, and the situation in East Lansing has moved from crisis to terminal. The $33M+ buyout that once seemed prohibitive is now just a number that major donors are actively working to fund. His 8-13 record isn’t just bad, it’s a complete program collapse that’s destroying Michigan State’s identity. New AD J Batt inherited this disaster and faces mounting pressure to act. Recruiting has gone from struggling to nonexistent, with elite prospects avoiding East Lansing entirely. The fan base has moved past anger into total apathy, which is the real death sentence. The question isn’t whether Smith gets fired, it’s when.

2. Mike Locksley, Maryland

Mike Locksley holds at #2, but that strong 2025 recruiting class that was his lifeline is starting to crack. Commits are taking visits elsewhere, and the locker room remains completely fractured. His 37-46 overall record tells the story of six years without real progress in the Big Ten. Fourth quarter collapses continue, and fans have stopped showing up expecting anything different. Donor support has evaporated completely, with major boosters now openly discussing replacement options. The administration’s hesitation is about the competitive coaching market, not confidence in Locksley. One more collapse and it’s over.

3. Mike Norvell, Florida State

Mike Norvell stays at #3, still clinging to the thin margin of player support that’s kept him employed. The $55M+ buyout remains the primary obstacle, but FSU is already planning for 2026 when it becomes more manageable. His 37-32 record would be fine elsewhere, but FSU expects championships, not mediocrity. Fan skepticism continues to grow as the season progresses. That Wake Forest win bought time, but not much. Another embarrassing loss puts him right back at #1.

4. Derek Mason, Middle Tennessee

Derek Mason enters the Top 10 at #4 with a catastrophic 4-17 record over two seasons. This is complete program collapse, not a rebuilding project. His SEC pedigree from Vanderbilt hasn’t translated, and the offense ranks near the bottom nationally. Donor support is gone, attendance at Floyd Stadium is embarrassing, and recruiting is nonexistent. Elite Conference USA prospects are choosing other programs because nobody wants to commit to obvious instability. The administration is trapped between Mason’s contract and the reality that every game does more damage. This isn’t a hot seat, it’s a death watch.

5. Luke Fickell, Wisconsin

Luke Fickell drops to #5, but the heat hasn’t decreased at all. All the goodwill from Cincinnati is completely gone after a 16-19 start in Madison. Wisconsin fans are openly questioning whether hiring Fickell was a massive mistake. The offense looks lost, the defense looks confused, and the administration’s demands for “foundational change” are ultimatums, not suggestions. Recruiting has flatlined, with elite Midwest prospects now choosing programs like Iowa and Minnesota over Wisconsin. Donors are calculating buyout scenarios and floating replacement names. His $7.625M salary looked smart when everyone expected success. Now it looks like an expensive anchor.

6. Justin Wilcox, California

Justin Wilcox remains at #6 as Cal’s situation reaches existential crisis levels. Nine years and a 48-54 record, with the ACC move exposing every weakness instead of creating opportunities. Fourth quarter collapses define the program now, and fans plan around expecting defeat. The real crisis is financial, donors have completely checked out and stopped funding the program. Recruiting has stagnated to the point where Cal loses battles to Mountain West schools. The administration isn’t asking whether to fire Wilcox anymore. They’re asking bigger questions about whether Cal football at this level is sustainable. That’s far more dangerous.

7. Bill Belichick, North Carolina

Bill Belichick at #7 represents the most stunning collapse of expectations in college football. Six Super Bowl rings have produced a 4-5 record that has fans mocking a hire they celebrated months ago. One Power Four win, uncertain bowl eligibility, and a coaching style built for NFL professionals that doesn’t work with teenagers. Elite recruits visit once and immediately look elsewhere. His $10M salary looked brilliant when everyone expected immediate success, now it prevents necessary program investments. The administration is losing patience and credibility with donors who expected a revolution. Every game does more recruiting damage. The experiment is failing in real time.

8. Shane Beamer, South Carolina

Shane Beamer drops to #8 after mid-season coordinator firings that were pure desperation. His 32-28 record looks fine until you remember South Carolina expects SEC competitiveness, not fighting for bowl eligibility. The firings bought time but fixed nothing fundamental. Bowl eligibility has moved from goal to survival requirement, the minimum needed to keep his job. Booster support is now conditional, demanding actual results instead of energy and South Carolina ties. Recruiting is suffering as elite prospects watch the chaos and commit elsewhere. The administration has loaded the gun. Anything less than a bowl game and he’s done.

9. Dave Aranda, Baylor

Dave Aranda falls to #9, and the shine from that 2021 Big 12 Championship has completely worn off. His 36-34 record through six seasons isn’t disastrous, it’s just deeply uninspiring for a program that expects more. Aranda wins just enough games to avoid the hot seat entirely, but never enough to generate real momentum or championship buzz. The fan base has moved from “trust the process” to “what exactly is the process?” as another mediocre season unfolds. Recruiting has slowed as elite Texas prospects look for programs with clearer upward trajectories. Aranda’s defensive expertise was supposed to be the foundation for sustained success, but it hasn’t translated into consistent winning. The remaining games will determine whether Baylor sees enough to commit long-term or starts exploring other options.

10. Mark Stoops, Kentucky

Mark Stoops barely holds #10 after one Auburn win bought temporary relief from what felt like inevitable disaster. His 81-78 record through 13 seasons is both Kentucky’s most successful era ever and clear evidence of a program that’s hit its ceiling. Multi-year SEC losing streaks and repeated blowouts have created frustration throughout the program. The real problem? Kentucky would owe Stoops nearly $38 million if they fired him after this season, and the contract requires the full amount be paid within 60 days. That’s not just expensive, it’s functionally impossible for Kentucky’s athletic budget. Stoops is essentially untouchable no matter how the season ends. The remaining games aren’t about his job security, they’re about whether another year of known limitations is acceptable. Thirteen years of evidence suggests he’s taken Kentucky as far as he can.

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Week 11 – Coaches Hot Seat Rankings

Mark Haines on November 4, 2025

Week 11 is where the pretenders get exposed.

This is the part of the season where the rubber meets the road. Where your team and your staff prove they’ve “got it” – or don’t. The early-season excuses are gone. The “we’re still figuring things out” narrative doesn’t fly anymore. By Week 11, you either have a culture that wins close games, a roster that believes in the system, and donors who are writing checks – or you’re watching your career circle the drain in real-time. This is where coaches earn their next contract or start quietly updating their resumes. This is where athletic directors stop taking “we’ll turn it around” phone calls and start having very different conversations. Week 11 separates the programs that are building something real from those that are just delaying the inevitable. And for these ten coaches? We break each situation down below:

1. Jonathan Smith, Michigan State

Jonathan Smith is sitting on a $33M-$37M buyout that’s paid out over 62 monthly installments – the kind of number that makes firing him financially painful but not impossible. The problem? He’s already lost his fan base after humiliating losses, recruiting is cratering, and donors are hesitant to continue funding a sinking ship. New AD J Batt inherited this mess and now faces a massive decision to either force Smith to turn it around immediately or mobilize donors to eat the buyout and start over. Michigan State isn’t just losing games – they’re losing their identity. Every day Smith remains in place is another day that elite recruits look elsewhere.

2. Mike Locksley, Maryland

Mike Locksley has lost the locker room, and everyone knows it. NIL chaos has players checked out, fourth-quarter collapses have become routine, and October was an unmitigated disaster that had fans chanting for his firing in the stadium. His seat is scorching, #2 on the hot seat rankings, but he’s got one lifeline: a legitimately strong 2025 recruiting class that’s making the administration hesitate before pulling the trigger. The job market is also flooded with high-profile openings, which might give him a reprieve simply because Maryland doesn’t want to get into a bidding war and strike out. But make no mistake: donor support is evaporating, administration confidence is gone, and Locksley is one more ugly loss away from a Sunday morning firing.

3. Mike Norvell, Florida State

Mike Norvell dropped from #1 to #3 on the hot seat after a win over Wake Forest and enough player support to give the administration cover to hesitate on his $55M+ buyout. But dropping two spots isn’t a victory – it’s a temporary reprieve. He barely survived recent board meetings where his future was debated in real-time, boosters are in open revolt, and fan skepticism is at an all-time high. Behind closed doors, FSU is already planning for 2026 when that buyout becomes more manageable. Questions about fit, contract structure, and whether this marriage ever made sense continue to linger. Norvell bought himself time, but one more blowout loss and he’s right back at #1.

4. Luke Fickell, Wisconsin

Luke Fickell is torching every ounce of goodwill he built at Cincinnati, and it’s happening fast. Multiple blowout losses and a stagnant offense have Wisconsin fans throwing remotes through their TVs, while recruiting momentum has completely flatlined. The administration isn’t just disappointed, they’re demanding foundational change, the kind of language that means “fix this NOW or we’re moving on.” Recent staff decisions have only accelerated skepticism, and fan patience has completely evaporated, with social media ablaze and calling for a reset. The only thing keeping Fickell employed is his buyout, but donors are starting to ask the question every coach dreads: “How much would it actually cost to start over?” One more embarrassing loss, and that buyout begins looking like a bargain.

5. Justin Wilcox, California

Justin Wilcox has mastered the art of losing games in the fourth quarter, and Cal fans have moved past frustration into full acceptance mode. Navigating conference realignment chaos while failing to elevate recruiting has left the program stagnant at a time when adaptation is everything. The death knell? Donors have checked out completely; they’ve stopped writing checks, stopped believing in the vision, and started asking pointed questions about ROI. Doubts about future competitiveness aren’t whispers anymore; they’re loud conversations in booster meetings. Wilcox isn’t just on shaky ground – he’s standing on a fault line, and everyone is waiting for the earthquake.

6. Bill Belichick, North Carolina

Bill Belichick at North Carolina was supposed to be a revolution with six Super Bowl rings, transforming college football. Instead, it’s looking like a very expensive mistake. One Power Four win. Bowl eligibility hanging by a thread. And a coaching style built for NFL veterans that doesn’t translate to 18-year-olds who need recruiting, not drafting. The administration is losing patience fast because elite prospects are looking at UNC and seeing chaos, not a championship pedigree. Recruiting hasn’t improved; it has actually gotten worse. The contract details are murky but undoubtedly expensive, the kind of money that looked brilliant when everyone thought he’d win immediately and catastrophic now that he’s not. The experiment is failing, and everyone is watching to see how quickly UNC pulls the plug.

7. Shane Beamer, South Carolina

Shane Beamer fired his offensive coordinator and offensive line coach mid-season, a desperate move that screams “I’m fighting for my life.” And it might not be enough. Insiders are saying it plainly: unless South Carolina rallies for bowl eligibility, Beamer is done. Booster support is crumbling fast, with the money people who once championed his energy and “South Carolina guy” credentials now demanding answers about results. Pressure is coming from everywhere—fans, administration, donors—all pointing to the same conclusion: the current vision isn’t working. Recruiting is getting massacred by staff instability, because elite prospects don’t commit to programs where coaches are getting fired mid-season and the head coach’s future is a weekly radio debate. Beamer bought himself time with those firings, but bowl eligibility isn’t just a goal anymore—it’s a job requirement.

8. Tim Beck, Coastal Carolina

Tim Beck still has the backing of Coastal Carolina’s administration, thanks to recent bowl appearances, but that institutional patience has an expiration date that’s approaching quickly. Competitive culture is struggling in a Sun Belt where parity is real, and roster retention has become a nightmare in the portal era. Donors aren’t panicking yet, they’re not calling for his head yet, but they’re watching, whispering, and starting to ask the question every coach dreads: “What happens if we miss a bowl game this year?” That’s the line in the sand. Miss the postseason and the conversation changes overnight from “let’s give him more time” to “maybe it’s time for a new direction.” Beck has a lifeline, but it’s fraying fast.

9. Dave Aranda, Baylor

Dave Aranda’s shine has completely worn off at Baylor, and the 2021 Big 12 Championship feels like ancient history. A mediocre record, zero championship buzz, and a fan base that has moved from “trust the process” to “what exactly IS the process?” has the administration and boosters doing more than watching—they’re calculating buyout logistics. That’s not hot seat attention; that’s death row. The donor base is eroding, checking out, and wondering if their money is being invested wisely. Recruiting momentum is slowing to a crawl because elite prospects can smell uncertainty from a mile away. Aranda needs a strong finish, not just bowl eligibility, but something that reminds people why Baylor hired him in the first place. Because right now? Nobody remembers, and that’s the most dangerous position any coach can be in.

10. Mark Stoops, Kentucky

Mark Stoops was this close to being fired before a dramatic win at Auburn bought him a reprieve, but one victory doesn’t erase a multi-year SEC losing streak. Years of being demolished by conference opponents have left Kentucky feeling more like a basketball school’s side project than a legitimate SEC program, and the administration has had legitimate conversations about buyout numbers and replacement candidates. The buyout is sizeable but not insurmountable, meaning if things go south again, Kentucky can afford to move on. Stoops needs two things immediately: roster confidence (players who believe they can compete in the SEC) and donor confidence (boosters who believe their money isn’t being wasted). Both are shaky right now. The remaining games aren’t just about bowl eligibility; they’re about survival, and everyone is watching.

Where does your coach rank?

Check out the complete rankings for all 136 FBS coaches here.

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Newsletter subscribers get the expanded treatment, deep dives on each of the top 10 coaches, game previews that actually matter, and curated stories about coaching moves and timely college football topics delivered straight to their inbox every Tuesday and Friday during the season. No fluff. No filler. Just the insider information you need to stay ahead of the coaching carousel before it becomes headlines everywhere else. This isn’t just another college football newsletter—it’s your edge on understanding the power dynamics, buyout negotiations, and behind-the-scenes pressure that determines who stays and who goes. Subscribe here and get the complete picture twice a week.

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Week 8 — Coaches Hot Seat Rankings

Mark Haines on October 14, 2025

Three coaches were fired on Sunday.

Trent Dilfer. James Franklin. Trent Bray.

Gone.

When coaches start falling in October, everyone else feels it. The phone calls start. The quiet meetings happen. The pressure that was already there gets cranked up to a whole new level.

Here are the 10 coaches under the most pressure in college football right now:

1. Billy Napier, Florida (SEC)

Trent Dilfer got fired Sunday with a 3-4 record.

Billy Napier is 21-23 at Florida. One upset over Texas doesn’t erase years of mediocrity. The Gators are paying him $7 million to compete for bowl eligibility while Georgia and Alabama compete for championships.

That’s unacceptable at Florida.

2. Hugh Freeze, Auburn (SEC)

Hugh Freeze came to Auburn with a redemption story.

A second chance after Ole Miss. Auburn gave him big money, full control, everything he needed to compete. The pressure is mounting because it’s not working.

Right now, Auburn isn’t competing.

3. Mike Norvell, Florida State (ACC)

Florida State hasn’t won an ACC game since November 2023.

Fifteen straight conference losses. Two full seasons. Zero ACC wins.

Mike Norvell went from 13-1 ACC Champions to unwatchable in less than a year.

FSU beat Florida earlier this season, and the media acted like they were “back.” They’re not—they’re 0-2 in ACC play. Norvell has had two years to figure out how to win in the ACC.

At Florida State, that’s unacceptable.

4. Jeff Choate, Nevada (Mountain West)

Jeff Choate is 4-15 at Nevada.

What worked at Montana State isn’t translating to the FBS level. Choate talks about tough, physical football, but Nevada is getting pushed around. The problem isn’t philosophy—it’s execution.

Choate is running out of time.

5. Joe Moorhead, Akron (MAC)

Joe Moorhead is 10-33 at Akron.

Elite offensive coordinator at previous stops. Winner at Fordham. But the Zips move the ball, rack up yards, then stall in the red zone—that’s coaching.

A 10-33 record over four years tells the story.

6. Luke Fickell, Wisconsin (Big Ten)

Luke Fickell was supposed to save Wisconsin football.

Wisconsin gave him everything—big money, full control, time to install his system. The defense has regressed, the offense looks disjointed, and the Big Ten is exposing every weakness. Wisconsin fans don’t want to hear about systems—they want wins.

Fickell isn’t meeting the Wisconsin standard yet.

7. Butch Jones, Arkansas State (Sun Belt)

Butch Jones failed at Tennessee.

Now he’s failing at Arkansas State. The Red Wolves are underperforming, players aren’t buying in, and fans aren’t showing up. Arkansas State thought Jones learned from his Tennessee mistakes.

The results suggest otherwise.

8. Justin Wilcox, California (ACC)

Cal got a fresh start with the move to the ACC.

New conference. New competition. New expectations. And here’s the number that matters: 8 wins.

That’s what Justin Wilcox needs to keep his job.

Look at what’s left on the schedule:

  • North Carolina
  • At Virginia Tech
  • Ranked Virginia
  • At Louisville
  • At Stanford
  • SMU

Six games—Cal needs to win five of them.

Wilcox is supposed to be a defensive guru who maximizes limited resources. But the Bears are getting manhandled by ACC competition—the defense can’t stop anyone, the offense can’t score. The math isn’t mathing.

Cal has a new chancellor—an alum, Class of ’83.

They hired Ron Rivera, NFL veteran head coach, as General Manager overseeing the football program. ESPN’s Gameday came to Berkeley last season. Everyone saw the potential. Cal has poured money and resources into this program—and they’re expecting results.

Can Willcox get the Golden Bears to 8 regular-season wins?

9. Sonny Cumbie, Louisiana Tech (C-USA)

Sonny Cumbie was supposed to bring offensive firepower to Louisiana Tech.

The Air Raid disciple. The Texas Tech coordinator everyone wanted to hire. But coordinating and head coaching are two completely different jobs—the offense has been inconsistent, the defense worse, and the program feels directionless.

Coordinator success doesn’t automatically translate to head coaching success.

10. Derek Mason, Middle Tennessee (C-USA)

Derek Mason is 4-14 at Middle Tennessee.

He’s a defensive coach in an era where offense wins championships. Mason is building a 2005 program in 2025, and Middle Tennessee can barely crack 20 points per game. MTSU fans are asking: What exactly are we getting better at?

If the answer is “nothing,” the pressure builds.

The Bottom Line:

Three coaches got fired this week—more will follow.

Athletic directors are making calls. Boosters are applying pressure. Coaches who thought they were safe realize they’re not.

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The Mike Gundy Era Is Over (Whether Oklahoma State Admits It Or Not)

Mark Haines on September 23, 2025

Oklahoma State’s legendary coach has become a cautionary tale about staying too long at the party

Here’s what nobody wants to say out loud.

Mike Gundy is done. Not “struggling.” Not “going through a rough patch.” Not “needing time to adjust to the new landscape.” Done.

And the numbers don’t lie—even when the narrative tries to.

The Brutal Reality Check

Let me paint you a picture of just how far Oklahoma State has fallen.

172.3 passing yards per game. That’s it. That’s the offensive explosion Mike Gundy has engineered in 2025. For context, most high school teams throw for more than that. 0.3 passing touchdowns per game. You read that correctly. In three games, Oklahoma State has thrown ONE touchdown pass. Uno. A single aerial score. 426.7 yards allowed per game. The defense—if we can even call it that—is surrendering nearly 7 yards every time an opponent snaps the ball.

But here’s the number that should make every Oklahoma State administrator’s blood run cold.

When Legends Become Liabilities

Twenty years ago, Mike Gundy was the answer to Oklahoma State’s prayers.

He turned the Cowboys into a consistent winner. Eighteen straight winning seasons. Five major bowl appearances. 102 Big 12 wins—third in conference history. He made Oklahoma State a national presence. But success has an expiration date. And Gundy’s expired somewhere between his “I’m a man! I’m 40!” rant and losing to Tulsa at home for the first time since the Clinton administration.

The statistical evidence isn’t just bad—it’s historically catastrophic.

The $15 Million Question

Here’s where things get interesting (and expensive).

Oklahoma State owes Gundy $15 million if it fires him before 2027. That’s a lot of money for a school that’s already struggling with NIL funding and watching their coach publicly complain about Oregon’s “$40 million roster.” But you know what’s more expensive than $15 million? Irrelevance. Every game Gundy stays, every embarrassing loss, every empty seat in Boone Pickens Stadium—that’s the real cost.

That’s the price of watching a proud program become a punchline.

The Oregon Excuse Factory

Before Oklahoma State got boat-raced 69-3 by Oregon, Gundy spent his press conference whining about financial disadvantages.

He suggested teams like Oregon shouldn’t play teams with fewer resources. This is where we separate legends from losers. Great coaches find ways to win with what they have. Average coaches make excuses about what they don’t have. Guess which category Gundy has fallen into? Two weeks after complaining about Oregon’s spending, Tulsa—with a NIL budget smaller than most high school booster clubs—walked into Stillwater and won.

The excuses don’t work when you’re getting out-coached by teams that can’t even spell “NIL.”

The Statistical Smoking Gun

Let’s discuss what good coaching looks like versus what Oklahoma State is currently receiving.

Elite programs adapt. Oklahoma State’s passing game has gotten worse every year. Elite programs develop talent. The Cowboys have more transfers than touchdowns. Elite programs win games they should win. Oklahoma State can’t beat Tulsa at home. Elite programs prepare for the future. Gundy hired two coordinators who hadn’t called plays since 2021. This isn’t about NIL. This isn’t about the transfer portal. This isn’t about “the changing landscape of college football.”

This is about a coach who stopped evolving while the game passed him by.

The Uncomfortable Truth

Mike Gundy gave Oklahoma State twenty incredible years.

He deserves gratitude, respect, and a place in the school’s Hall of Fame. What he doesn’t deserve is another season to damage further the program he helped build. The fans know it—they booed at halftime against Tulsa and left early. The media knows it—even OSU’s own radio broadcast called it “the worst sore we’ve seen in a long time.” The administration knows it—they restructured his contract in December with a $1 million pay cut and modified buyout terms.

Everyone knows it except the man making $6.75 million to go 1-2 against teams like Tennessee-Martin, Oregon, and Tulsa.

The Way Forward

Oklahoma State has two choices.

Pay the $15 million and start rebuilding now. Watch their program become the laughingstock of the Big 12. The first option is expensive. The second option is fatal. Great organizations make difficult decisions before they become impossible ones. They cut ties with legends before legends become liabilities. Mike Gundy was the right coach for Oklahoma State for twenty years.

But the Mike Gundy Era is over.

The numbers don’t lie.

The results speak for themselves. And sometimes, the most brutal truth is that every great story has an ending. Mike Gundy’s story at Oklahoma State was beautiful.

But it’s time to write the final chapter.

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Kansas State Football 2025 Season Preview: Wildcats Poised for Big 12 Championship Run

Mark Haines on May 9, 2025

The Kansas State Wildcats aren’t just building a football program but constructing a dynasty.

Coming off their third consecutive 9-win season, the Wildcats have positioned themselves among the nation’s elite. Only Alabama, Clemson, Georgia, Notre Dame, Ohio State, Oregon, and Ole Miss can match K-State’s remarkable consistency over the last four years.

Let’s explain why 2025 could be the year the Wildcats finally break through to the College Football Playoff.

A Culture of Resilience That Few Programs Can Match

The defining moment of Kansas State’s 2024 season wasn’t a blowout win or a highlight-reel touchdown.

It was the greatest bowl comeback in school history—rallying from a 34-17 deficit to claim a 44-41 Rate Bowl victory that showcased the relentless culture Chris Klieman has built in Manhattan.

This is a program that refuses to flinch when facing adversity:

  • Three straight seasons with at least 9 wins
  • A run game that averaged a staggering 215.5 yards per game in 2024
  • A defense that strangled opposing ground attacks, allowing just 118.7 rushing yards per contest
  • A record-setting quarterback returning to lead an even more explosive offense

The foundation is rock solid. The ceiling? It might just be championship hardware.

Avery Johnson: The Next Great Dual-Threat QB Ready for Stardom

Remember when Collin Klein terrorized Big 12 defenses with his unique blend of power and precision?

Avery Johnson might be even better.

The junior quarterback enters 2025 coming off a sophomore campaign where he:

  • Threw for 2,712 yards and a school-record 25 touchdowns
  • Added 605 rushing yards and 7 scores on the ground
  • Finished fourth in school history in pass attempts, fifth in completions, and passing yards
  • Became one of only nine quarterbacks in the nation with at least 25 passing TDs and seven rushing TDs

“We’re in May and nobody knows what their roster is going to be for the season,” Klieman said recently. “But [we retain] a key cog in Johnson. The Wildcats are expected to be among the favorites to claim the Big 12 Conference title and should be ranked when they open the 2025 season against Iowa State in Dublin, Ireland.”

The scary part? Johnson is just scratching the surface of his potential.

The Backfield That Nobody Wants to Face

Good luck getting any sleep if you’re a defensive coordinator preparing for Kansas State.

The Wildcats’ backfield boasts three distinct running styles, each capable of exploiting defensive weaknesses.

  • Dylan Edwards returns after a breakout 2024 season highlighted by his Rate Bowl heroics.
  • Nebraska transfer Gabe Ervin Jr. (6’0″, 220 pounds) brings power and physicality as a complementary piece.
  • Recently signed Antonio Martin Jr. adds yet another dimension to an already loaded room

In 2024, K-State became the only Power 4 team in the country with three players averaging at least 5.4 yards per carry (a minimum of 70 attempts).

Think about that for a second.

The 2025 version might be even more dangerous.

Transfer Portal Mastery That’s Changing the Program’s Ceiling

The old Kansas State was known for developing overlooked recruits into NFL players.

The new Kansas State? They’re still doing that but also winning big in the transfer portal.

The Wildcats signed a modern-era high of 14-15 transfers for 2025, addressing specific needs while maintaining the core of last year’s successful team:

  • Boston College transfer Jerand Bradley (6’5″, 222 pounds) gives Johnson a massive target who has already proven himself in the Big 12 at Texas Tech
  • Purdue transfer Jaron Tibbs and TCU transfer Caleb Medford transform a once-thin receiver room into a strength
  • High-upside defensive additions like Alabama linebacker Jayshawn Ross and Ohio State linebacker Gabe Powers bring blue-blood pedigrees to Manhattan.
  • Offensive line reinforcements arrived via JB Nelson (Penn State), Terrence Enos Jr. (Pittsburgh), and George Fitzpatrick (Ohio State)

The days of K-State being outmatched athletically are over. Now they’ve got the coaching AND the players to compete with anyone.

The Hidden Problems That Could Derail Championship Dreams

Not everything in Manhattan is perfect; ignoring these issues would be a mistake.

Two concerning statistical trends from 2024 could undermine K-State’s championship aspirations:

  • The Wildcats averaged 5.5 penalties per game (45.7 yards), including a season-high 9 penalties for 96 yards against West Virginia
  • Their turnover margin was perfectly neutral (16 committed, 15 forced), limiting momentum-changing opportunities in close games

These numbers point to fixable discipline issues that seem incongruent with what is otherwise one of the most stable coaching staffs in the Big 12.

For a team with slim championship margins, these self-inflicted wounds could be the difference between playing for a title in December and watching from home.

Additional Challenges That Bear Watching

Beyond the statistical concerns, several roster questions need answering:

The depth of quarterbacks behind Johnson is uncertain, which could be significant considering the physical demands of his playing style.

  • The offensive line must build cohesion quickly after losing several veteran starters.
  • Defensive depth, particularly in the front seven, was strained during spring practice due to injuries.
  • The new NCAA 105-man roster cap hits developmental programs like K-State especially har.d

None of these issues are insurmountable, but they can make the difference between a good and great team.

A Schedule Designed for National Attention

The 2025 campaign starts with the kind of spotlight few K-State teams have ever experienced.

The Aer Lingus College Football Classic against Iowa State on August 23 in Dublin, Ireland, marks just the second international game in program history. The winner immediately positions itself as an early Big 12 frontrunner.

Other key schedule highlights include:

  • Non-conference tests against North Dakota (Aug. 30) and Army (Sept. 6) before a fascinating “non-conference” Big 12 matchup at Arizona (Sept. 13)
  • Home games against UCF (Sept. 27), TCU (Oct. 11), Texas Tech (Nov. 1), and Colorado (Nov. 29)
  • Challenging road tests at Baylor (Oct. 4), Kansas (Oct. 25), Oklahoma State (Nov. 15), and first-time opponent Utah (Nov. 22)

The November stretch will define the season, with three of their final four games on the road before closing at home against Colorado.

Big 12 and CFP Outlook: The Window Is Now

Vegas oddsmakers have K-State’s over/under at 8.5 wins, but that number feels conservative.

The Wildcats are co-favorites (+550) to win the Big 12 alongside Arizona State, and for good reason.

What separates Kansas State in the expanded College Football Playoff era is its complete package:

  • Elite quarterback play from a true dual-threat talent
  • Explosive backfield with multiple rushing styles
  • Improved receiving corps with size and speed
  • Traditionally strong defense built to stop the run
  • Coaching continuity in a conference full of turnover

“The Wildcats are a perennial Big 12 contender, and the program should return to form after an inconsistent first year for quarterback Avery Johnson,” noted one analysis from CBS Sports. “To help, KSU brought in plenty of receiver help next to Jayce Brown, including Jerand Bradley and Caleb Medford. The defense has been consistent under Chris Klieman.”

The Big 12 has recently lacked a dominant national contender. Kansas State has the perfect opportunity to fill that void.

Coaching Staff Built for Modern College Football

As Klieman enters his seventh season, he’s assembled a staff designed for the new realities of college football.

The restructured coaching team includes:

  • Nate Kaczor as special teams coordinator, bringing 16 years of NFL experience
  • Matt Kardulis (assistant safeties coach) and David Orloff (outside linebackers coach) are providing specialized position coaching
  • Sean Maguire, promoted to assistant quarterbacks coach, continues to mentor Avery Johnson

The offensive approach under Matt Wells will leverage multiple personnel groupings and creative substitution patterns to maximize K-State’s depth at skill positions.

Defensively, coordinator Joe Klanderman’s unit has been a model of consistency, particularly against the run. The challenge will be maintaining that standard despite roster turnover and the 105-player limit.

The Bottom Line: Championship Window Is Wide Open

Kansas State football has never been better positioned for national relevance.

Combining an elite quarterback-running back tandem, strategic transfer portal additions, and a proven coaching staff creates a foundation for Big 12 title contention and potentially the program’s first College Football Playoff appearance.

The challenges are real—quarterback depth, offensive line cohesion, and cleaning up penalties and turnovers all bear watching—but the Wildcats’ track record suggests they’ll be in the thick of the conference race deep into November.

With a dramatic Ireland opener against Iowa State looming, K-State’s path to championship contention begins immediately.

If Avery Johnson takes the expected next step in his development and the transfer additions integrate smoothly, the Wildcats won’t just be playing for a conference title.

They could be playing for a whole lot more.

The Next Billion Dollar Game

College football isn’t just a sport anymore—it’s a high-stakes market where information asymmetry separates winners from losers. While the average fan sees only what happens between the sidelines, real insiders trade on the hidden dynamics reshaping programs from the inside out.

Our team has embedded with the power brokers who run this game. The coaching carousel, NIL deals, transfer portal strategies, we’ve mapped the entire ecosystem with the kind of obsessive detail that would make a hedge fund analyst blush.

Why subscribe? Because in markets this inefficient, information creates alpha. Our subscribers knew which coaches were dead men walking months before the mainstream media caught on. They understood which programs were quietly transforming their recruiting apparatuses while competitors slept.

The smart money is already positioning for 2025. Are you?

Click below—it’s free—and join the small group of people who understand the real value of college football’s new economy.

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COLORADO FOOTBALL 2025: THE PRIME EFFECT ENTERS PHASE II

Mark Haines on May 7, 2025

Are you ready for Colorado football without Shedeur Sanders and Travis Hunter?

As we approach the 2025 college football season, the question on everyone’s mind is simple: Can Deion “Coach Prime” Sanders keep the Colorado football renaissance alive without his superstars?

The Meteoric Rise Nobody Saw Coming

Coach Prime inherited a disaster when he walked into Boulder two years ago.

The Buffaloes were fresh off a 1-11 season with fans questioning whether Colorado football would ever be relevant again. Fast forward just 24 months, and the transformation has been nothing short of remarkable:

  • Year 1: Four wins (a 300% improvement)
  • Year 2: Nine wins, including a 7-2 Big 12 record
  • Top 25 rankings in both AP and Coaches polls
  • An Alamo Bowl appearance
  • A Heisman Trophy winner in Travis Hunter

Now Sanders enters Year 3 with a freshly inked contract extension, making him one of college football’s highest-paid coaches, reportedly over $10 million annually, following the Buffaloes’ flirtation with both a Big 12 Championship Game berth and potential College Football Playoff spot last season.

But 2025 isn’t about building on success with established stars. It’s about proving the program can sustain excellence without them.

Star Power Exodus Creates Massive Opportunities

The 2025 Buffaloes are essentially a new team.

Gone are the cornerstones of Colorado’s resurgence:

  • Quarterback Shedeur Sanders
  • Two-way star and Heisman Trophy winner Travis Hunter (drafted No. 2 overall by Jacksonville)
  • Safety Shilo Sanders
  • Eight defensive starters from 2024

Colorado returns only about 50% of its overall production, with just 44% returning on offense (ranking 99th nationally in returning production). But where others see problems, Coach Prime sees opportunity.

“We’ve established expectations. So now you expect us to perform a certain way. You expect us to win. You expect us to be exciting… You just have expectations of us now. That’s what we’ve established.”

The 2025 season represents Phase II of the Colorado rebuild—moving from star-driven success to program sustainability.

The QB Battle Everyone’s Watching

This year’s single most important position battle in Boulder is under center.

Two candidates have emerged to replace Shedeur Sanders:

Kaidon Salter (Liberty Transfer)

  • Threw for 4,762 yards and 47 touchdowns (just 12 INTs) over past two seasons
  • True dual-threat capabilities
  • 25 games of college experience
  • Could provide a new dimension to Colorado’s offense

Julian “Juju” Lewis (Five-Star Freshman)

  • No. 6 quarterback in the 2025 recruiting class
  • Reclassified to join Colorado a year early
  • Phenomenal arm talent
  • Represents the program’s future

The quarterback competition took center stage at Colorado’s spring game, with fans packing Folsom Field to get their first glimpse of these potential stars.

Most insiders believe Salter has the early edge due to his experience, potentially serving as a bridge to Lewis as the young quarterback acclimates to college football. But Coach Prime has never been afraid to play the best talent, regardless of age or experience.

Portal Power: How Sanders Is Rebuilding Through Transfers

If there’s one thing Coach Prime has mastered, it’s the transfer portal.

Colorado has brought in 26 transfer portal commitments for 2025, ranking 20th nationally and 2nd in the Big 12 for transfer classes.

Key additions include:

  • Noah King (S, Kansas State) – four-star transfer
  • Larry Johnson III (OL, Tennessee)
  • John Slaughter (DB, Tennessee)
  • DeKalon Taylor (RB/PR, Incarnate Word)
  • Jehiem Oatis (DT, Alabama)

Unlike the previous year’s massive overhaul (43 transfers in 2024), the 2025 portal class is smaller but more targeted, reflecting a more stable foundation and focus on culture fit.

Coach Sanders has specifically emphasized recruiting “grown men” for positions of need, including defensive tackle, linebacker, safety, cornerback, receiver, running back, tight end, and multiple offensive line spots.

Offense 2025: Can The Buffs Finally Run The Ball?

Colorado’s offense was a Jekyll and Hyde story in 2024.

The good: 32.9 points per game, 4,134 passing yards (318.0 per game), and 37 passing touchdowns.

The bad: An abysmal rushing attack that ranked dead last in the FBS at just 65.2 yards per game and 2.5 yards per carry.

This imbalance proved fatal in losses like the Kansas game, where the Buffs were outgained on the ground 331-42.

To address this glaring weakness, Sanders made perhaps his most impactful coaching hire yet: NFL Hall of Famer Marshall Faulk as running backs coach.

The receiver room still looks promising despite losing Travis Hunter. Emerging talents like Drelon Miller, who caught 32 passes for 277 yards and 3 TDs as a true freshman, will look to step into more prominent roles.

The offensive line, which allowed 39 sacks (3.0 per game) in 2024 despite Sanders’ quick release, continues to be reinforced through transfers. After being a significant liability in 2023, the unit showed improvement in 2024 and is expected to take another step forward in 2025.

Defense: The Foundation Of Colorado’s Future Success?

While the offense gets the headlines, Colorado’s defense significantly improved in 2024.

What you need to know:

  • Allowed 23.1 points and 351.9 yards per game
  • Improved by over 100 yards and nearly 12 points per game from 2023
  • Led the Big 12 in tackles for loss (99) and sacks (39)
  • Cornerback DJ McKinney anchored the secondary with 3 INTs and 9 pass breakups

Despite losing eight of the ten players who started at least ten games, the defense returns more production than the offense and should remain a strength. The addition of Alabama transfer Jeheim Oatis should bolster the defensive line significantly.

Home Sweet Home: A Schedule Built For Success

Colorado’s 2025 schedule features seven home games—the most in over four decades.

Non-conference slate:

  • Georgia Tech (home)
  • Delaware (home)
  • Wyoming (home)

Key home conference games:

  • BYU (Alamo Bowl rematch)
  • Iowa State
  • Arizona State (defending Big 12 champion)

Toughest road tests:

  • Houston (Sept. 13, Big 12 opener)
  • TCU
  • Utah
  • Kansas State

According to early odds from FanDuel Sportsbook, Colorado’s projected win total sits at 6.5 games.

The favorable home schedule, with only one road game within the first month, gives the Buffaloes a real opportunity to start strong, potentially opening 3-1 or 4-0 before hitting the more challenging portion of their schedule.

Beyond Football: The Prime Effect Continues To Transform Boulder

What Coach Prime has built extends far beyond the football field.

The “Prime Effect” has transformed:

The University:

  • Significant shift in campus culture around diversity and inclusion
  • Increased student applications
  • Major new sponsorships and donations (over $10 million in new gifts)

The Economy:

  • Consistently sold-out home games
  • Local business booms on game days
  • Economic impact estimates range from $300-500 million in Sanders’ first year alone

The Brand:

  • National television appearances
  • Constant media coverage
  • Exclusive merchandise lines and collaborations with major companies

This continued national attention and cultural impact remains a powerful recruitment and program-building tool, even as the team transitions away from its star players.

The Bottom Line: What To Expect In 2025

The 2025 Colorado Buffaloes stand at a fascinating inflection point.

Most analysts project a 7-5 or 8-4 regular season, with another bowl appearance likely. While this would represent a slight step back from last year’s 9-4 record, it would still signify remarkable progress for a program that won just one game three years ago.

The question isn’t whether Colorado can win games—they’ve proven they can do that. The real question is whether Coach Prime is building something sustainable beyond star power.

If Salter or Lewis can stabilize the quarterback position, if the defense maintains its trajectory, and if the run game finally becomes a weapon rather than a liability, this could be the year that proves Colorado football is here to stay as a legitimate Big 12 contender.

The next chapter of Colorado football may not have the star power of the previous one, but it might prove more meaningful for the program’s long-term future.

The Next Billion Dollar Game

College football isn’t just a sport anymore—it’s a high-stakes market where information asymmetry separates winners from losers. While the average fan sees only what happens between the sidelines, real insiders trade on the hidden dynamics reshaping programs from the inside out.

Our team has embedded with the power brokers who run this game. The coaching carousel, NIL deals, transfer portal strategies, we’ve mapped the entire ecosystem with the kind of obsessive detail that would make a hedge fund analyst blush.

Why subscribe? Because in markets this inefficient, information creates alpha. Our subscribers knew which coaches were dead men walking months before the mainstream media caught on. They understood which programs were quietly transforming their recruiting apparatuses while competitors slept.

The smart money is already positioning for 2025. Are you?

Click below—it’s free—and join the small group of people who understand the real value of college football’s new economy.

Free Subscription
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