Here’s what everyone in college football knows but won’t say out loud.
Brent Venables is coaching for his career on Saturday. Not his season. His career. When you’re ranked #6 out of 136 coaches on the Coaches Hot Seat rankings, every game becomes a referendum on your future.
The Math Is Simple:
22-17 record in three seasons at Oklahoma
Two losing seasons out of three
#6 on the hot seat rankings (danger zone territory)
A schedule ESPN calls the toughest in college football
Meanwhile, Sherrone Moore sits comfortably at #36 in our rankings. That’s the difference between “we’re watching” and “we’re planning your replacement.”
Here’s What Makes Saturday Fascinating:
Oklahoma went nuclear in the offseason. They brought in 21 transfer portal players, hired a new offensive coordinator, and landed John Mateer—the quarterback who led all of college football with 44 total touchdowns last season.
Michigan countered with the #1 recruit in the country, Bryce Underwood, who already proved he belongs by going 21/31 for 251 yards in his debut.
The Stakes:
For Venables, this is his best shot at an early statement win before facing eight projected top-25 opponents. Win, and the complete program overhaul looks genius. Lose, and the whispers become roars.
For Moore, this is about proving their offensive transformation can execute against proven competition.
The Truth:
Desperate coaches make dangerous opponents. When your job depends on 12 games, every snap gets magnified. Every decision gets scrutinized.
Saturday tells us whether that desperation breaks Oklahoma or brings out its best.
We Track Coaching Pressure So You See The Warning Signs First
You just read the kind of analysis that predicted coaching changes before they happened. While other publications wait for the obvious, we identify the warning signs early.
The Coaches Hot Seat newsletter delivers:
Weekly hot seat rankings with data-driven predictions
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Because college football moves fast.
And the programs that survive are the ones that see what’s coming next—not the ones caught reacting to what already happened.
Most people think October rivalry games are magical.
They’re missing the point entirely.
USC’s October Problem
While other programs optimize their schedules for conference championships, USC flies cross-country in the middle of its toughest stretch.
Notre Dame in October. Then right back into Big Ten play.
It’s like running a marathon, then immediately sprinting 400 meters while your competitors get to rest.
The Independence Advantage
Here’s what Notre Dame gets that USC doesn’t:
No conference championship game
Complete scheduling flexibility
Strategic bye weeks when they need them
Zero back-to-back rivalry pressure
Meanwhile, USC is locked into:
Cross-country travel nightmares
October scheduling chaos
Big Ten championship requirements
Playoff implications for every game
The Hidden Cost of Bad Timing
This isn’t just about football.
Every high performer faces the same scheduling trap. That monthly client call during your busiest week. The annual conference is right before your biggest deadline. The tradition that worked perfectly 10 years ago, but now creates unnecessary friction.
We keep these commitments because they are important to us. Because changing them feels like giving up.
But innovative competitors know something most people don’t: timing isn’t just logistics—it’s strategy.
The Bottom Line
USC Athletic Director Jen Cohen isn’t trying to kill tradition. She’s trying to save it by making it work within reality.
The best rivalries aren’t preserved by blind loyalty. They’re maintained by smart adaptation.
Your calendar is your competitive advantage. Protect it like your career depends on it.
Because it does.
Tired of surface-level college football takes? Coaches Hot Seat delivers the analysis that actually matters. Rankings Tuesday, deep breakdowns Friday. Join for free.
The Fighting Illini enter the 2025 season with something they haven’t experienced in decades: legitimate championship expectations. Following a breakthrough 10-3 campaign that culminated in a Citrus Bowl victory over South Carolina, Bret Bielema’s program has captured national attention and positioned itself among college football’s emerging powers.
The Numbers Don’t Lie: Illinois Has Arrived
The preseason rankings tell the story of a program transformed:
Fox Sports’ Joel Klatt: #10
ESPN: #11
CBS Sports: #12
247 Sports: #14
On3.com: #7 (yes, you read that correctly)
This marks Illinois’ first preseason ranking since 2008, and the highest preseason expectations in over two decades. “Everyone will tell you around Illinois they’re shooting for college football playoffs,” analyst Jeremy Werner said on the Cover 3 Podcast.
That’s not wishful thinking anymore.
Luke Altmyer: The Quarterback Who Changed Everything
The foundation of Illinois’ championship dreams rests on one decision: whether Luke Altmyer will return.
In front of a packed State Farm Center during a basketball game, the junior quarterback announced he would return for his senior season rather than entering the transfer portal. That announcement might have been the most critical moment for Illinois football in 20 years.
Altmyer’s 2024 numbers were exceptional:
2,717 passing yards
22 touchdowns, five interceptions
61% completion percentage
#34 nationally in passer rating (144.9)
5 career game-winning drives (most among active QBs)
But the numbers only tell part of the story. Altmyer has become the clutch performer Illinois desperately needed, throwing three game-winning touchdown passes in the final minute or overtime during 2024 alone.
Illinois wasn’t taking any chances with their coach.
The university signed Bielema to a six-year contract extension through 2030, worth $7.7 million annually. The deal signals institutional commitment and provides the stability that championship programs require.
Since arriving in 2021, Bielema has compiled a 28-22 overall record and transformed Illinois from Big Ten doormat to legitimate contender. His “tough, smart, dependable” philosophy has produced tangible results:
12 NFL draft picks in four seasons
Two bowl appearances
First 10-win season since 2001
Largest attendance growth in the nation
The Schedule: A Championship Window Opens
Illinois caught a break with its 2025 schedule.
The Illini avoid traditional Big Ten powers Penn State, Oregon, and Michigan. Their toughest opponent? Defending national champion Ohio State, but that game comes at home in Memorial Stadium.
Early season tests will define the trajectory:
Duke (road): Nine-win team in 2024 with talented QB Maalik Murphy
Indiana (road): Big Ten opener against Curt Cignetti’s improved Hoosiers
USC (home): Lincoln Riley’s Trojans in a must-win spot
Ohio State (home): The measuring stick game
Werner emphasized the importance of those early road games: “I think that’s going to tell us a lot about this team.”
Replacing NFL Talent Through the Portal
Illinois lost significant production to the NFL:
Pat Bryant (WR): Drafted by Denver Broncos (3rd round)
Zakhari Franklin (WR): Signed with Las Vegas Raiders
Seth Coleman (LB): Joined Seattle Seahawks
JC Davis (OL): Departed for NFL opportunities
But Bielema’s staff struck back through the transfer portal.
The headliner addition is West Virginia wide receiver Hudson Clement, who posted 51 catches for 741 yards in 2024. Ball State’s Justin Bowick (6’5″, compared to the NFL’s Courtland Sutton) adds size and athleticism to the receiving corps.
Defensively, Wisconsin transfers James Thompson Jr. and Curt Neal bolster a front seven that needs to replace Coleman’s pass-rushing production. Florida State’s Tomiwa Durojaiye provides additional depth and upside.
The Foundation: 16 Returning Starters
Here’s why Illinois isn’t a one-year wonder: continuity.
The Illini return 16 starters from their 10-win squad, creating the experience and chemistry that championship teams require. Key returning players include:
Xavier Scott (DB): Led team with four interceptions
Matthew Bailey (DB): Citrus Bowl defensive MVP (93 tackles)
Gabe Jacas (LB): Top pass rusher, National Defensive Player of the Week
This level of roster retention is rare in the transfer portal era, giving Illinois a significant competitive advantage.
Statistical Reality Check: What Needs Improvement
Illinois’ 2024 numbers reveal both strengths and concerns.
Offensive Strengths:
364.8 total yards per game
211.2 passing yards per game
153.6 rushing yards per game
Only 40.2 penalty yards per game (excellent discipline)
Defensive Concerns:
373.2 total yards allowed per game
224.8 passing yards allowed
148.4 rushing yards allowed
The defensive numbers suggest room for improvement, especially against high-powered offenses like Ohio State. The transfer portal additions should help, but Illinois must prove they can stop elite attacks consistently.
College Football Playoff: Dream or Destiny?
The expanded playoff format creates new opportunities for programs like Illinois.
ESPN’s Heather Dinich ranked Altmyer as the sixth-most impactful returning player nationally, noting that Illinois “can be a CFP sleeper team by competing for the Big Ten title and earning an at-large bid if it doesn’t win the league.”
The comparison being made? Indiana’s shocking 11-1 season and playoff appearance in 2024.
The comparison being made? Indiana’s shocking 11-1 season and playoff appearance in 2024.
If Illinois can navigate early road tests and avoid significant injuries, a 10-win season and playoff berth become realistic rather than fantasy.
The Bottom Line: This Is Illinois’ Moment
Vegas set the over/under for Illinois wins at 7.5, but that feels conservative.
The combination of experienced leadership, coaching stability, favorable scheduling, and strategic roster additions creates the foundation for sustained success. Illinois has moved beyond hoping for bowl eligibility to expecting championship contention.
The 2025 season represents more than an opportunity to repeat recent success—it’s a chance to establish Illinois as a permanent fixture among the college football elite.
The question isn’t whether Illinois can compete at the highest level.
The question is whether they’re ready to handle the pressure that comes with finally being taken seriously.
The Next Billion Dollar Game
College football isn’t just a sport anymore—it’s a high-stakes market where information asymmetry separates winners from losers. While the average fan sees only what happens between the sidelines, real insiders trade on the hidden dynamics reshaping programs from the inside out.
Our team has embedded with the power brokers who run this game. From the coaching carousel to NIL deals to transfer portal strategies, we’ve mapped the entire ecosystem with the kind of obsessive detail that would make a hedge fund analyst blush.
Why subscribe? Because in markets this inefficient, information creates alpha. Our subscribers knew which coaches were dead men walking months before the mainstream media caught on. They understood which programs were quietly transforming their recruiting apparatuses while competitors slept.
The smart money is already positioning for 2025. Are you?
Click below—it’s free—and join the small group of people who understand the real value of college football’s new economy.
The Oregon Ducks are about to find out if lightning can strike twice.
After their historic undefeated regular season and Big Ten Championship in 2024, the Ducks face a moment of truth. Can they maintain championship-level performance while replacing Heisman finalist Dillon Gabriel and 10 NFL Draft picks? Or will 2024 prove to be a magical one-year run that can’t be replicated?
The answer lies in how quickly Oregon’s young stars can fill massive shoes.
The Foundation Is Rock Solid
Oregon didn’t just win in 2024—they dominated.
Their numbers tell the story of a program firing on all cylinders:
13-1 overall record with a perfect 12-0 regular season
34.86 points per game (4th nationally)
Only 19.43 points allowed per game
Signature wins over Ohio State (32-31), Michigan (38-17), and Washington (49-21)
First Big Ten Championship in program history
The only crack in the armor? A sobering 41-21 loss to Ohio State in the Rose Bowl exposed defensive vulnerabilities against elite competition.
But here’s what that loss represents: proof that Oregon belongs on the biggest stage, with lessons learned about what it takes to win at the highest level.
The $64,000 Question: Can Dante Moore Be “The Guy”?
Everything hinges on the quarterback position.
Dillon Gabriel’s departure creates the most significant question mark on Oregon’s roster. Enter Dante Moore, the former five-star UCLA transfer who spent 2024 learning Will Stein’s system from the sidelines.
Here’s why Moore could explode in 2025:
Full year of development in Stein’s offense without game pressure
Elite arm talent that made him a top-5 recruit
Quick decision-making system perfectly suited to his skill set
Chemistry built with receivers throughout spring practice
On3 analyst JD Pickell believes Moore’s patient development was crucial: “My biggest takeaway is he is going to be able, I think, play with better anticipation having sat for a year. Anticipation in Will Stein’s offense = points.”
Moore’s 2023 UCLA experience—52.4% completion rate, 11 TDs, 9 INTs—represents learning on the fly in a complex system. Now he gets to showcase what a year of preparation can do.
The backup situation adds intrigue with Austin Novosad choosing to stay rather than transfer, creating valuable depth behind Moore.
The Receiving Corps Just Got Very Interesting
Oregon’s passing attack faces both crisis and opportunity.
The crisis? Evan Stewart, projected as the Ducks’ top receiver, suffered a knee injury believed to be a torn patellar tendon that could sideline him for the entire 2025 season. Stewart’s 48 catches for 613 yards in 2024 represented crucial production that must be replaced.
The opportunity? Enter the “Moore to Moore” connection.
Five-star freshman Dakorien Moore—the nation’s top-ranked receiver—arrives with elite credentials and early raves from teammates. Gary Bryant Jr. called him “very explosive” and praised his versatility: “Can play any position in the receiver room from X, Y, Z, A. Explosive receiver. Got good hands. Got good routes.”
The supporting cast includes:
Justius Lowe (21 catches, 203 yards in 2024)
Gary Bryant Jr. (limited by injury but productive when healthy)
Malik Benson (Florida State transfer, adding depth)
Jeremiah McClellan (emerging young talent)
With Stewart’s absence creating immediate opportunities, expect Dakorien Moore to fast-track into a starring role alongside quarterback Dante Moore.
Defense: Elite Edge Rush Meets Secondary Youth
Oregon’s defense returns its most dominant weapon in Matayo Uiagalelei.
The All-Big Ten edge rusher led the team with 10.5 sacks and 12.5 tackles for loss, establishing himself as one of college football’s premier pass rushers. Paired with returning edge rusher Teitum Tuioti and USC transfer Bear Alexander on the interior, Oregon’s pass rush should remain elite.
The secondary tells a different story entirely.
After sending seven defensive backs to NFL camps, Oregon rebuilt with elite recruits:
Five-star safety Trey McNutt (elite athleticism and range)
Multiple four-star additions providing depth
“I feel like I felt the most love at Oregon,” Offord said about his recruitment. “The whole staff had been recruiting me from the beginning. Everything, just everything there. I feel like Oregon just fits me.”
The question isn’t talent—it’s experience. These young stars must perform immediately against Big Ten offenses that will test every coverage.
Dan Lanning’s Recruiting Machine Keeps Rolling
Oregon’s 2025 recruiting class proves this success isn’t accidental.
The numbers are staggering:
No. 3 national ranking according to 247Sports
Three five-star prospects (most in program history)
15 four-star recruits
Best recruiting class in the Big Ten
Expert Matt Prehm from Ducks Territory summarized Oregon’s talent level: “They’ve recruited as well as they’ve ever done at Oregon. They have NFL players on both sides of the football. They have first-round draft picks on both sides of the football. This is as talented of a group as possible.”
The 2026 class momentum continues with multiple five-star commitments and official visits from top prospects, indicating sustainable excellence rather than a one-year flash in the pan.
Schedule Sets Up for Another Championship Run
Oregon catches two massive breaks in 2025.
They avoid both Ohio State and Michigan in regular-season play, removing the conference’s two biggest threats from their path to another Big Ten Championship. The toughest tests come in late September (at Penn State) and November road trips to Iowa and Washington.
FanDuel Sportsbook has set Oregon’s win total at 10.5, reflecting both the team’s recent consistency and the uncertainty surrounding its roster. The Ducks have hit double-digit wins every full season since 2019, establishing championship-level expectations.
“I also think 12-0 might happen again,” said Prehm. “They don’t play Ohio State. They don’t play Michigan. I honestly think the schedule sets up where if Dante Moore is as good as we think he is, the backend on defense connects maybe sooner than later.”
The Unfinished Business
Several questions remain unanswered as we head into 2025.
The most pressing concerns:
Quarterback depth behind Moore remains unproven
Secondary relies heavily on talented but inexperienced players
Special teams consistency (particularly kicking) wasn’t addressed
Veteran leadership must emerge from new voices
These aren’t fatal flaws—they’re growing pains for a program transitioning from breakthrough to sustained excellence.
Lightning Is About to Strike Again
Oregon enters 2025 with everything needed for another championship run.
The infrastructure is championship-caliber: elite recruiting, proven coaching, favorable schedule, and core talent returning at key positions. The expanded 12-team College Football Playoff provides multiple paths to postseason success.
The real question isn’t whether Oregon can compete—it’s whether they can elevate their ceiling even higher.
2024 proved Oregon belongs among college football’s elite. 2025 will determine if they’re ready to stay there permanently. With Dante Moore under center, Dakorien Moore stretching defenses, and Matayo Uiagalelei terrorizing quarterbacks, the pieces are in place for something special.
The championship window isn’t just open—it’s wide open.
Indiana football is about to find out if lightning can strike twice.
The Hoosiers enter 2025 carrying unprecedented momentum following the most successful campaign in program history. Under second-year head coach Curt Cignetti, they must prove that their remarkable 2024 breakthrough was not a fluke but the foundation of a sustainable championship culture.
The Historic 2024 Foundation Changed Everything
The numbers from Indiana’s 2024 season tell a story of complete transformation.
Cignetti’s first season produced an 11-2 overall record and an 8-1 mark in Big Ten play, both program records. The Hoosiers reached the College Football Playoff for the first time, ultimately falling to Notre Dame 27-17 in the first round.
The statistical dominance was overwhelming:
Indiana averaged 41.3 points per game while allowing just 15.6
They outgained opponents by nearly 170 yards per contest
The Hoosiers finished No. 10 in both the AP and Coaches polls
This marked their highest ranking since 1967
Perhaps most importantly, Cignetti established a culture of excellence that attracted national attention. As he reflected on the season, “That’s probably the silver lining of the Notre Dame game is a sour taste it left in my mouth and everybody else’s mouth in terms of motivation to get started this year,” Cignetti told ESPN.
The Weak Schedule Criticism Was Valid (But 2025 Fixes That)
The most persistent criticism of Indiana’s 2024 success centered on one glaring weakness: the strength of schedule.
With an ESPN FPI strength of schedule ranked 100th nationally, Indiana faced legitimate questions about their readiness for elite competition. The nonconference slate was particularly problematic:
Florida International
Western Illinois (an FCS team)
Charlotte
Those criticisms were validated when Indiana struggled against top-tier opponents, losing 38-15 to Ohio State and 27-17 to Notre Dame. However, the 2025 schedule represents a dramatic upgrade that should silence critics.
ESPN’s 2025 strength of schedule ratings place Indiana at No. 32 nationally. This is a significant jump that puts them solidly in the upper quarter of all FBS teams for schedule difficulty. The road games alone tell the story:
At Oregon (2024 Big Ten Championship participant)
At Penn State (2024 Big Ten Championship participant)
At Iowa (traditionally a difficult environment)
Additional challenging home matchups against Wisconsin, Illinois, and UCLA create a gauntlet that will test Indiana’s depth and development.
The Quarterback Question Got the Perfect Answer
The most crucial offseason addition came at quarterback, where Indiana landed Fernando Mendoza from California.
The 6-foot-5, 225-pound redshirt sophomore was one of the most coveted quarterbacks available in the transfer portal and committed to the Hoosiers in December, according to ESPN. His 2024 statistics at Cal were impressive:
3,004 passing yards
16 touchdowns
Just six interceptions
68.7% completion rate
His younger brother Alberto, already on the Indiana roster, played a role in the recruitment. “His younger brother, Alberto Mendoza, is a freshman backup quarterback for the Hoosiers, a connection that proved to be a key factor as Fernando Mendoza decided whether to transfer ahead of his junior season,” ESPN reported.
The quarterback addition addresses one of the biggest concerns following Kurtis Rourke’s departure. Rourke threw for 3,042 yards and 29 touchdowns in 2024, earning second-team All-Big Ten honors and finishing ninth in Heisman Trophy voting.
The Offensive Line Got a Complete Makeover
Perhaps no position group received more attention in the offseason than the offensive line, which struggled against elite competition in 2024.
The numbers were brutal. “One area that hurt Mendoza at Cal last season collides with the Indiana weakness that got exposed in the Hoosiers’ biggest games, as they had a 13% sack rate against Ohio State, Notre Dame and Michigan last year, per ESPN Analytics, compared to 3% against the rest of their schedule,” according to ESPN analysis.
Indiana aggressively addressed this weakness by adding three experienced Power 4 transfers:
Kahlil Benson from Colorado
Pat Coogan from Notre Dame
Zen Michalski from Ohio State
Combined with returning starters Carter Smith, Bray Lynch, and Drew Evans, Indiana now boasts six older and experienced linemen. This should be the team’s most improved unit in 2025.
The Defense Keeps Its Championship Core
While the offense underwent significant changes, the defense retains its core leadership.
All-American cornerback D’Angelo Ponds returns after recording three interceptions and nine pass breakups in 2024. Two other defensive anchors also return:
Defensive end Mikail Kamara (10 sacks, 15 tackles for loss)
The defensive continuity provides stability as Indiana integrates new offensive pieces. Defensive coordinator Bryant Haines and the defensive system that ranked sixth nationally in scoring defense remain intact.
This Schedule Will Test Everything
Indiana’s 2025 schedule presents a legitimate test of its championship aspirations.
The season opens favorably with three home games against Old Dominion, Kennesaw State, and Indiana State. “The season opener at home against Old Dominion on Aug. 30 is set for a 2:30 p.m. kickoff, with Week 2 against Kennesaw State kicking off at noon. Both games will be televised on FS1,” according to On3.
The real challenges begin with Big Ten play. Road trips to Oregon and Penn State represent the most difficult tests, as both teams were in the 2024 Big Ten Championship game. Additional road games at Iowa and Maryland, plus home contests against Wisconsin, Illinois, and UCLA, create a gauntlet that will test Indiana’s depth and development.
This is not the 2024 schedule that critics attacked for being weak.
The Contract Extension Shows Total Commitment
Indiana’s commitment to Cignetti’s vision became crystal clear with a massive contract extension signed in November 2024.
“Cignetti and the Hoosiers agreed to an eight-year contract worth $8 million annually, the program announced in a press release Saturday morning. The deal runs through Nov. 30, 2032, and comes with an annual $1 million retention bonus,” according to the Indiana Daily Student.
The financial commitment is staggering:
$72 million total over eight years
$11 million staff salary pool (projects to be top five nationally)
Significant buyout protection for both sides
“Indiana is spending accordingly, giving Cignetti a new deal for $72 million over eight years, and it now has an $11 million staff salary pool. (The pool projects to be top five in the country),” ESPN reported.
Transfer Portal Success Continues
Cignetti’s ability to rebuild through the transfer portal remains a key strength for the program.
Indiana’s 2025 transfer class ranks 18th nationally according to 247Sports, with 19 additions:
10 on offense
6 on defense
3 specialists
Beyond Mendoza, key additions include running back Roman Hemby from Maryland, who brings 2,347 career yards and 22 touchdowns. The offensive line additions of Benson, Coogan, and Michalski represent experienced players from major programs who should immediately improve depth and competition.
The Expectations Are Sky High (And Realistic)
“We don’t want to be a one-hit wonder” became an unofficial motto as ESPN reported on rising expectations.
The 2025 season will determine whether Indiana can sustain elite-level performance or if 2024 was an anomaly. ESPN’s preseason rankings place Indiana at No. 17 in their “Way-Too-Early Top 25,” reflecting both respect for the program’s rise and skepticism about repeating unprecedented success.
This would mark Indiana’s first preseason AP Top 25 appearance since 2021. The schedule upgrade provides an opportunity for legitimacy:
Success against Oregon, Penn State, and other ranked opponents would validate Indiana’s place among college football’s elite
Struggles could reinforce perceptions that 2024 was built on a favorable schedule
Cignetti’s Track Record Suggests Optimism
The man leading this transformation has never failed before.
“We’re going to change the culture, the mindset, the expectation level and improve the brand of Indiana Hoosier football,” Cignetti said during his introductory press conference in December 2023, according to the Indiana Daily Student. “There will be no self-imposed limitations on what we can accomplish.”
His famous “Google me” confidence reflects a coach who has never had a losing season in 14 years as a head coach. The culture change is evident in recruiting, fan support, and national perception.
“When we played the real good people,” Cignetti acknowledged regarding 2024 losses, “we looked a little different.” The 2025 schedule provides ample opportunity to demonstrate growth against elite competition.
This Is the Ultimate Test
The 2025 season marks a pivotal moment for Indiana football.
Success would establish the program as a legitimate Big Ten power and national contender. Struggles could suggest that 2024 was an outlier rather than a sustainable foundation.
The infrastructure for sustained success appears to be in place:
Contract extension providing stability
Increased funding
Recruiting momentum
Coaching continuity
Transfer portal additions addressing specific 2024 weaknesses
Indiana enters 2025 with unprecedented expectations and resources. The question is not whether the Hoosiers can compete but whether they can sustain excellence when the novelty wears off and opponents treat them as a legitimate threat rather than a surprising story.
The answer will determine whether Cignetti’s transformation represents a temporary breakthrough or the beginning of a new era in Bloomington.
The Next Billion Dollar Game
College football isn’t just a sport anymore—it’s a high-stakes market where information asymmetry separates winners from losers. While the average fan sees only what happens between the sidelines, real insiders trade on the hidden dynamics reshaping programs from the inside out.
Our team has embedded with the power brokers who run this game. From the coaching carousel to NIL deals to transfer portal strategies, we’ve mapped the entire ecosystem with the kind of obsessive detail that would make a hedge fund analyst blush.
Why subscribe? Because in markets this inefficient, information creates alpha. Our subscribers knew which coaches were dead men walking months before the mainstream media caught on. They understood which programs were quietly transforming their recruiting apparatuses while competitors slept.
The smart money is already positioning for 2025. Are you?
Click below—it’s free—and join the small group of people who understand the real value of college football’s new economy.
Iowa football has never seen anything like Mark Gronowski.
Here’s a quarterback who doesn’t just win games – he wins championships. Two FCS national titles. A 49-6 record as a starter. The 2023 Walter Payton Award. This isn’t some developmental project or “potential” quarterback Iowa hopes might work out.
This is a proven winner stepping into the most crucial position on the team.
The Bottom Line: For the first time in years, Iowa’s offense might match its defense.
Why This Quarterback Is Different
Most Iowa quarterbacks arrive with hope.
Gronowski arrives with hardware. His 2023 season at South Dakota State tells you everything you need to know about what Iowa just acquired:
3,058 passing yards and 29 touchdowns
Just five interceptions the entire season
Led an undefeated 15-0 national championship team
Named the Missouri Valley Football Conference Offensive Player of the Year
But here’s what makes this even better for Iowa.
Gronowski was seriously considering the NFL after receiving an invitation to the combine. The fact that he chose Iowa City over professional football should tell you something about Tim Lester’s vision for this offense.
“It’s the Shanahan system that they are running there,” Gronowski told ESPN. “That’s what a lot of NFL teams are running. My goal throughout the process of transferring was getting in a situation to become the best player and be the best potential prospect for the NFL.”
His shoulder surgery recovery? Ahead of schedule.
“The recovery has gone great,” Kirk Ferentz shared. “Everything is right on schedule. He’s probably a little bit ahead, that type of deal.”
The Offense Finally Gets Serious
Iowa hasn’t had a top-35 scoring offense since 2008.
Think about that number for a second. Sixteen years of offensive mediocrity while fielding consistently elite defenses. The 2024 season epitomized this frustration: 131.6 passing yards per game with only 10 passing touchdowns.
That changes now.
Tim Lester didn’t just bring in a quarterback. He orchestrated a complete offensive overhaul:
Warren Ruggiero hired as senior analyst from Wake Forest to modernize the passing attack
Sam Phillips was recruited from Chattanooga to add speed and playmaking at receiver
Multiple top-10 PFF-graded offensive linemen returning for protection
West Coast system implementation is designed for Gronowski’s dual-threat ability
The running game faces its biggest challenge with Kaleb Johnson’s departure (1,537 yards, 21 touchdowns in 2024). But new running backs coach Omar Young brings NFL and major college experience to develop Kamari Moulton and Jaziun Patterson.
The receiving corps finally has weapons. Phillips joins Jacob Gill and the breakout candidate Reece Vander Zee, giving Gronowski actual targets who can stretch defenses.
Defense Stays Elite Despite Losses
Phil Parker loses his best players and keeps winning anyway.
That has been the Iowa defensive story for over a decade, and 2025 won’t be any different. Yes, linebacker Jay Higgins is gone. Yes, defensive backs Nick Jackson and Jermari Harris moved on. But Parker’s system keeps producing NFL talent regardless of personnel changes.
The defensive line remains dominant:
Aaron Graves and Ethan Hurkett anchor the pass rush
Portal additions Jonah Pace (Central Michigan) and Bryce Hawthorne (South Dakota State) add depth
Iowa’s development pipeline continues churning out pros
Xavier Nwankpa leads a secondary that needs young players like T.J. Hall and Deshaun Lee to step up immediately. The linebacker position represents the biggest question mark, with Jaden Harrell and Karson Sharar taking over.
But this is Iowa defense we’re talking about. They’ll figure it out.
The Schedule Is Brutal
Iowa’s 2025 schedule makes their 2024 slate look like a scrimmage.
Three College Football Playoff teams visit Kinnick Stadium: Indiana (September 27), Penn State (October 18), and Oregon (November 8). These aren’t just games – they’re statements waiting to happen.
Here’s the complete gauntlet:
Non-Conference:
Albany (August 30) – Home opener
At Iowa State (September 6) – Cy-Hawk rivalry in Ames
UMass (September 13) – Home on Big Ten Network
Big Ten Road Tests:
At Rutgers (September 20) – Conference opener
At Wisconsin (October 11) – Classic Big Ten battle
At USC (November 15) – First LA trip as conference foes
At Nebraska (November 28) – Black Friday finale
“I think they pull off one big upset in Kinnick,” said Hawkeye Insider expert David Eickholt. “Maybe reclaim some of that ‘Kinnick at Night’ talk.”
The projected win total sits at 7.5. Most experts expect Iowa to cruise past that number if Gronowski delivers.
Recruiting Momentum Builds
Iowa’s 2025 recruiting class proves the program’s national relevance.
The rankings vary by service, but the talent level doesn’t:
The 2026 class already ranks 23rd nationally, according to ESPN. The momentum is real.
Special Teams Stays Perfect
Drew Stevens doesn’t miss.
His 2024 numbers speak for themselves: 40-for-40 on extra points and 20-of-23 on field goals (87%). Return specialist Kaden Wetjen scored touchdowns on both kick and punt returns while averaging 27.3 yards per return.
In close games, this unit wins you football games.
Why This Year Matters
Iowa’s track record against elite competition has been embarrassing.
The Hawkeyes are 0-6 against Penn State, Michigan, and Ohio State since 2021, getting outscored 215-34 in those games. The 35-7 loss to Ohio State in 2024 showed exactly how far Iowa had fallen behind the conference elite.
But 2025 presents the perfect opportunity for redemption.
Penn State and Oregon both visit Kinnick Stadium. Indiana comes to town riding their Cinderella story. These games will determine whether Iowa’s offensive upgrades translate into victories against championship-caliber opponents.
Expert sentiment is cautiously optimistic. CBS Sports and other outlets project the Hawkeyes to exceed their 7.5-win total, with some expecting them to finish in the top half of the Big Ten’s offensive rankings for the first time in over a decade.
The ceiling is 8-9 wins if everything clicks. The floor is another year of offensive frustration if Gronowski can’t translate FCS success to Big Ten competition.
The Program-Defining Moment
Everything changes if Mark Gronowski succeeds.
Iowa has built an identity around development, defense, and doing more with less. But in the expanded Big Ten, “less” might not be enough anymore. The addition of Gronowski represents the program’s most aggressive attempt to compete with the conference’s elite programs.
Success in 2025 proves that strategic upgrades can coexist with Iowa values. Failure raises difficult questions about the program’s direction in an increasingly competitive landscape.
The quarterback revolution starts now.
Either Iowa finally breaks through, or they get left behind.
The Next Billion Dollar Game
College football isn’t just a sport anymore—it’s a high-stakes market where information asymmetry separates winners from losers. While the average fan sees only what happens between the sidelines, real insiders trade on the hidden dynamics reshaping programs from the inside out.
Our team has embedded with the power brokers who run this game. From the coaching carousel to NIL deals to transfer portal strategies, we’ve mapped the entire ecosystem with the kind of obsessive detail that would make a hedge fund analyst blush.
Why subscribe? Because in markets this inefficient, information creates alpha. Our subscribers knew which coaches were dead men walking months before the mainstream media caught on. They understood which programs were quietly transforming their recruiting apparatuses while competitors slept.
The smart money is already positioning for 2025. Are you?
Click below—it’s free—and join the small group of people who understand the real value of college football’s new economy.
Ohio State is about to learn this lesson the hard way.
The Buckeyes just pulled off one of the most improbable championship runs in college football history. They lost twice in the regular season. They didn’t win their conference. They entered the playoffs as the No. 8 seed. And then they beat Tennessee, Oregon, Texas, and Notre Dame in consecutive games to capture their first national title in a decade.
Here’s what nobody talks about: 99% of championship teams have most of their stars return the following year.
Ohio State? They lost 14 players to the NFL Draft.
That’s not a reload. That’s a complete teardown and rebuild. And they have to do it while everyone expects them to repeat as champions. The math doesn’t add up. The expectations don’t make sense. But that’s exactly the position Ryan Day finds himself in heading into 2025.
This is going to be fascinating to watch.
Nobody Knows Who The Starting Quarterback Is (And That Should Scare You)
Let me paint you a picture.
Will Howard threw for 4,010 yards and 35 touchdowns during Ohio State’s championship run. He made clutch throws in every playoff game. He was the steady hand that guided this team through adversity. Now he’s gone, drafted by the Pittsburgh Steelers.
The replacement? That’s where it gets interesting.
Julian Sayin was the obvious choice. Former five-star recruit. Transferred from Alabama when Nick Saban retired. MVP of the Elite 11 Finals. All the credentials you want.
But here’s the problem: The consensus was that Julian Sayin was the clear frontrunner to be the starter, but a shaky spring has changed things and has brought junior Lincoln Kienholz into the picture.
This is not the kind of uncertainty you want when facing Texas in your season opener.
Sayin’s resume looks incredible on paper:
7,824 passing yards in high school
85 touchdowns, 10 interceptions
Added 10 pounds and now weighs 203
But paper doesn’t win football games. And right now, Ohio State doesn’t know who their starting quarterback is going to be. Former Ohio State quarterback Will Howard believes Julian Sayin is the front-runner to be the Buckeyes’ next QB1, with former defensive back Denzel Burke adding, “Julian’s that guy.”
The coaches aren’t even pretending they have it figured out. Quarterbacks coach Billy Fessler said Ohio State is “a long way away” from even discussing the closeness of the competition.
When you’re defending national champions and you don’t know who your quarterback is 3 months before the season? That’s not a great sign.
Brian Hartline Just Got The Most Pressure-Packed Promotion In College Football
Picture this scenario.
You’re the wide receivers coach at Ohio State. You’ve been there for 8 years. You’ve developed four first-round NFL draft picks. You helped Marvin Harrison Jr. win the Biletnikoff Award. You’re really, really good at your job.
Then your boss walks into your office and says: “Congratulations, you’re now the offensive coordinator for the defending national champions. Oh, and by the way, we have no idea who our starting quarterback is going to be.”
That’s precisely what happened to Brian Hartline.
“Great honor,” Hartline said. “Very humbled by it. I mean, Coach can select anybody in the country he wants to be the offensive coordinator at Ohio State, and he has trusted me to be one of those guys. So it means a lot.”
Here’s what makes this promotion both brilliant and terrifying:
The Brilliant Part:
Hartline has coached Chris Olave, Garrett Wilson, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, and Marvin Harrison Jr.
He knows how to develop elite talent
He has the best receiving corps in college football returning
Jeremiah Smith had 1,315 yards and 15 TDs as a freshman
The Terrifying Part:
He’s never been a full-time offensive coordinator
He has to game-plan around an unknown quarterback
Everyone expects the offense to be just as explosive as last year
Oh, and they lost both starting running backs, too
Hartline’s success or failure will determine whether Ohio State can repeat. No pressure, right?
“Anybody can do it for one time. So they’re just trying to chase consistency and frequency, and that is the keynote on your level of greatness, how often you do it,” Hartline said. “A lot of those guys have only done it once. So they’re trying to do it more than once.”
Translation: We know winning once was hard. Doing it again? That’s the real test.
They Hired A Former NFL Head Coach To Fix Their Defense (Because They Had To)
Matt Patricia’s hiring tells you everything you need to know about Ohio State’s defensive situation.
When you lose your entire starting defensive line to the NFL Draft, you don’t hire a college position coach. You don’t promote from within. You call a guy who coached in two Super Bowls and convince him to save your season.
Patricia’s resume is ridiculous:
Defensive coordinator for three Super Bowl-winning Patriots teams
Led top-10 NFL scoring defenses for 8 straight years
Coordinated the 2016 Patriots defense that allowed just 250 points all season
Has 20 years of NFL experience
But here’s the thing nobody wants to admit: Patricia failed as an NFL head coach in Detroit. His teams went 13-29-1. He was fired mid-season. There’s a reason he’s back in college football.
Day said Ohio State’s defense will look different under Matt Patricia compared to the past three seasons under former defensive coordinator Jim Knowles. That’s coach-speak for “we have no idea how this is going to work.”
The numbers don’t lie about what Ohio State lost:
J.T. Tuimoloau: 12.5 sacks (1st round pick)
Jack Sawyer: 9 sacks (1st round pick)
The entire starting defensive line
53 total sacks as a team (3.3 per game)
The #4 scoring defense in the country
You can’t replace that kind of production overnight. Patricia’s job isn’t to maintain the defense. It’s to completely rebuild it from scratch.
Good luck with that.
The Schedule From Hell
Want to know how confident Ohio State is about this rebuild?
Look at their schedule.
They open the season against Texas on August 30 at noon. Not some FCS cupcake. Not a mid-tier Power 5 team. Texas. The same Texas team they beat in the College Football Playoff semifinals. With both teams expected to be very highly ranked and this a rematch of last year’s College Football Playoff national semifinal, the matchup is one of the most anticipated openers in college football history.
Then it gets worse:
Aug. 30: Texas at home (noon)
Sept. 6: Grambling State at home (3:30 p.m.)
Sept. 13: Ohio at home (7 p.m. on Peacock)
Sept. 27: At Washington in Seattle
Oct. 4: Minnesota at home (Homecoming)
Oct. 11: At Illinois
Oct. 18: At Wisconsin
Nov. 1: Penn State at home
Nov. 8: At Purdue
Nov. 15: UCLA at home
Nov. 22: Rutgers at home
Nov. 29: At Michigan (noon)
This isn’t a schedule designed for a rebuilding team. This is a schedule that says, “We think we’re still championship-level despite losing half our roster.”
The road games at Washington, Illinois, Wisconsin, and Michigan are all potential trap games. Washington went 6-7 last season but will be desperate to bounce back. Illinois and Wisconsin are always tough at home. And Michigan? That rivalry game speaks for itself.
Either Ohio State’s coaching staff knows something we don’t, or they’re about to learn a costly lesson about overconfidence.
The expanded playoff format does provide some cushion. Ohio State proved last year that you can lose games and still win it all. But starting 1-2 or 2-3? That’s an entirely different conversation.
The Transfer Portal Band-Aid Strategy
When you lose this much talent, you have two options:
Develop young players and hope they’re ready
Hit the transfer portal hard and pray you find immediate contributors
Ohio State chose option 2:
CJ Donaldson (RB) from West Virginia
Ethan Onianwa (OT) from Rice
Phillip Daniels (OT) from Minnesota
Max Klare (TE) from Purdue
Logan George (DE) from Idaho State
This isn’t necessarily a bad strategy. But it’s also not a championship strategy.
Championship teams are built on players who have been in the system for 2-3 years. Players who know every nuance of the playbook. Players who have been through big games together.
Transfer portal players? They’re talented, but they’re also brand new. They don’t know the culture. They don’t have the relationships. They’re essentially starting from scratch in August.
Can it work? Sure. The 2024 team had key transfers like Will Howard and Caleb Downs, who were crucial to the championship run.
But banking your entire season on transfer portal additions? That’s not sustainable. That’s desperation.
Ryan Day’s Reputation Is About To Be Tested
Here’s what nobody talks about regarding Ryan Day’s championship:
It took him 6 years to win his first title.
For 5 years, the criticism was relentless. Can’t beat Michigan. Can’t win the big games. Not elite enough for Ohio State. The pressure was suffocating.
Then 2024 happened. Suddenly, Day was a genius. A championship coach. One of the best in the country.
But here’s the uncomfortable truth: Day’s 2025 season will tell us more about his coaching ability than 2024 ever could.
Winning with elite talent is one thing. Winning after losing that elite talent? That’s when you find out who can really coach.
Day’s challenge isn’t just replacing players. It’s managing expectations. It’s developing young talent. It’s keeping a team focused when everyone assumes they’ll repeat as champions.
The pressure is immense:
External expectations for another championship
Internal pressure to develop unproven talent quickly
Strategic decisions about playing time and depth
Managing new coordinators while maintaining program identity
Day’s ability to navigate these challenges will define both the 2025 season and his long-term legacy in Columbus.
If he succeeds? He’ll be considered one of the elite coaches in college football.
If he fails? The criticism will return with a vengeance.
The Recruiting Safety Net
The one thing Ohio State has going for them? Their recruiting is still elite.
The 2025 class ranks 4th nationally:
Tavien St. Clair (QB) – could push for immediate playing time
Devin Sanchez (CB) – desperately needed in the secondary
Quincy Porter (WR) – adds depth to an already loaded position
Bo Jackson (RB) – helps replace NFL departures
The 2026 class already ranks third nationally, which speaks volumes about Ohio State’s brand power.
But here’s the reality: recruiting rankings don’t win games in September.
These freshmen are talented, but they’re still freshmen. Asking them to contribute immediately on a championship-level team? That’s a lot of pressure for 18-year-old kids.
The recruiting success provides long-term hope. But for 2025? Ohio State needs immediate production from unproven players.
That’s not a recipe for sustained excellence. That’s a recipe for growing pains.
The Uncomfortable Truth About Defending Championships
Here’s what the college football world doesn’t want to admit:
Repeating as national champions is nearly impossible in the modern era.
The last team to win back-to-back championships? Alabama in 2011-2012. That’s 13 years ago.
Why is it so hard?
Player turnover through the NFL Draft
Transfer portal departures
Increased parity across college football
Target on your back every single week
Complacency after achieving the ultimate goal
Ohio State faces all of these challenges, but amplified. They didn’t just lose some players. They lost 14 to the NFL Draft. They didn’t just have normal turnover. They essentially rebuilt their entire roster.
The expanded playoff format helps, but it doesn’t solve the fundamental problem: you still have to play the games.
So What Happens In 2025?
Let me be honest with you.
Ohio State will still be really good. They have too much talent, too good of coaching, and too strong of a program culture to be bad.
But championship-level good? That’s a different question entirely.
The most likely scenario:
Early struggles as new players learn their roles
Quarterback growing pains, regardless of who wins the job
Defensive inconsistency as Patricia implements his system
10-11 win season that feels disappointing compared to 2024
Playoff appearance but early exit
The optimistic scenario:
Julian Sayin becomes a star immediately
Transfer additions exceed expectations
Young players develop faster than anticipated
Patricia’s system clicks by midseason
Another championship run
The pessimistic scenario:
Quarterback competition extends into the season
Defense struggles without NFL-level talent
Early losses derail championship hopes
8-9 win season that leads to serious questions
Here’s my prediction: Ohio State will be good enough to make the playoff, but not good enough to win it all.
They’ll win 10-11 games, lose 1-2 games they shouldn’t, and bow out in the first or second round of the playoffs. It won’t be a failure, but it will feel like one compared to 2024.
The Bottom Line
Defending championships is the hardest thing in sports.
Ohio State is about to learn why.
The Next Billion Dollar Game
College football isn’t just a sport anymore—it’s a high-stakes market where information asymmetry separates winners from losers. While the average fan sees only what happens between the sidelines, real insiders trade on the hidden dynamics reshaping programs from the inside out.
Our team has embedded with the power brokers who run this game. From the coaching carousel to NIL deals to transfer portal strategies, we’ve mapped the entire ecosystem with the kind of obsessive detail that would make a hedge fund analyst blush.
Why subscribe? Because in markets this inefficient, information creates alpha. Our subscribers knew which coaches were dead men walking months before the mainstream media caught on. They understood which programs were quietly transforming their recruiting apparatuses while competitors slept.
The smart money is already positioning for 2025. Are you?
Click below—it’s free—and join the small group of people who understand the real value of college football’s new economy.
There has never been more pressure on a Penn State football season than what awaits in 2025.
After a historic 13-win campaign that ended one game short of the national championship, the Nittany Lions return with their best roster in decades, championship expectations, and zero excuses left. Head coach James Franklin faces the ultimate test of his 12-year tenure, while quarterback Drew Allar carries the hopes of a Heisman Trophy and the weight of an entire fan base’s dreams.
This isn’t just another season in Happy Valley. This is the year Penn State either breaks through to college football’s summit or faces uncomfortable questions about whether it can ever get there under Franklin’s leadership.
The foundation has been laid, the pieces are in place, and the moment has arrived.
The 2024 Season Set an Impossible Standard to Match
Penn State’s 2024 campaign rewrote the program’s record books in ways that seemed impossible just years earlier.
The numbers tell the story of a breakthrough season:
13 total wins (most in program history)
First College Football Playoff semifinal appearance
First top-five ranking since 2005
430.2 yards per game on offense (elite efficiency)
101.9 rushing yards allowed per game (4th nationally)
Only 0.9 turnovers per game (incredible discipline)
The playoff run captured the nation’s attention. Penn State demolished SMU 38-10 in the first round at Beaver Stadium, conquered Boise State 31-14 in the Fiesta Bowl, then fell heartbreakingly to Notre Dame 27-24 in the Orange Bowl semifinal.
That near-miss has become the driving force behind 2025’s championship-or-bust mentality.
The Nittany Lions proved they belonged among college football’s elite, but proving it and winning it are two different things. The 2024 season established the ceiling—now they must reach it.
Drew Allar: The Heisman Candidate Carrying Championship Dreams
Drew Allar isn’t just Penn State’s quarterback—he’s the key to everything the program hopes to accomplish.
The senior signal-caller threw for 3,327 yards and 24 touchdowns in 2024 while completing 66.5% of his passes with just eight interceptions. But statistics only tell part of Allar’s story. His growth from promising recruit to legitimate Heisman candidate represents the evolution of Penn State’s championship aspirations.
Current Heisman odds position Allar favorably:
MGM lists him at +1400
Tied for third-best odds with Clemson’s Cade Klubnik
Behind only Texas’s Arch Manning and LSU’s Garrett Nussmeier
Only non-quarterback ahead of him is Ohio State’s Jeremiah Smith
The trajectory suggests Allar is poised for a breakout season.
His completion percentage jumped from 59.9% in 2023 to 66.5% in 2024, while yards per attempt rose from 6.8 to 8.4. Recent analysis suggests that if Allar achieves approximately 70.5% completion rate, 3,630 total yards, and 35 total touchdowns, “those numbers would put him squarely in line with or ahead of recent Heisman winners.”
The supporting cast has been upgraded significantly. Syracuse transfer Trebor Pena led the ACC with 84 receptions for 941 yards and nine touchdowns, providing the explosive receiver Penn State lacked. Combined with returning weapons and the nation’s best running back duo in Kaytron Allen and Nicholas Singleton, Allar has everything needed to compete for individual honors.
If Allar reaches his ceiling, Penn State reaches theirs.
Penn State’s decision to retain 14 starters represents one of the highest totals among power conference teams.
In an era of rampant roster turnover, this continuity provides a massive competitive advantage:
Offensive Continuity:
Entire starting offensive line returns (allowed just 1.4 sacks/game)
Both Allen and Singleton return after 2,207 combined rushing yards
Quarterback stability with Allar’s third year as starter
Upgraded receiver corps through strategic transfers
Defensive Foundation:
Five starters return despite NFL departures
Rising stars like Tony Rojas and Zakee Wheatley step into larger roles
Athletic linebackers provide versatility for new schemes
Young secondary with significant upside
Strategic Portal Additions:
Trebor Pena (WR) – ACC leader in receptions
Amare Campbell (LB) – 76 tackles, 6.5 sacks at UNC
Enai White (EDGE) – Helps replace Abdul Carter’s production
Multiple depth pieces addressing specific needs
The 2025 recruiting class, ranked No. 12 nationally, features immediate contributors led by five-star offensive tackle Malachi Goodman and four-star defensive end Daniel Jennings.
This roster combination of experience, talent, and strategic additions is unprecedented in the Franklin era.
Jim Knowles Brings Championship-Level Defense
The hiring of Jim Knowles as defensive coordinator represents Penn State’s boldest move toward a national championship.
Knowles arrives from Ohio State with a reputation for innovative, high-pressure schemes designed to disrupt elite quarterbacks. His defensive philosophy directly addresses Penn State’s past struggles against top-tier offenses.
What Knowles brings to Happy Valley:
Aggressive, complex blitz packages
Multiple alignments using “Jack” linebacker concepts
Proven ability to develop NFL-caliber defenders
Experience winning big games against elite competition
Despite losing five players to the NFL Draft, the defense maintains significant talent. Defensive tackle Zane Durant, cornerback A.J. Harris, and defensive end Dani Dennis-Sutton “could very well be All-Americans in 2025,” while safety Zakee Wheatley returns after a standout 2024 campaign.
The secondary, while young, possesses the athletic ability to thrive under Knowles’ system.
Players like Elliot Washington II, Zion Tracy, and Dejuan Lane are positioned for expanded roles, supported by four-star freshman additions that ensure depth and competition.
Knowles’ arrival signals Penn State’s commitment to winning at the highest level. The $3.1 million investment demonstrates that Athletic Director Pat Kraft’s thinking was clear: “What is the dollar amount that is going to get us closer to a national title?”
The Schedule Presents Championship Opportunities and Challenges
Penn State’s path to a Big Ten championship and College Football Playoff berth is clear but not easy.
The season opens favorably with three non-conference games against Nevada, FIU, and Villanova, followed by a strategic bye week. This schedule enables the development of chemistry and the resolution of early-season issues before Big Ten play commences.
Key Games That Will Define the Season:
September 27 – Oregon at Penn State (White Out) The marquee home game against a top-10 Oregon team in White Out conditions. This early test could define the entire season’s trajectory.
October 18 – at Iowa Road games in Iowa City are notoriously difficult. Penn State must prove it can win tough road games against quality opponents.
November 1 – at Ohio State, the ultimate test. Franklin’s record against the Buckeyes must improve for championship dreams to become a reality.
Success requires winning the games that matter most.
Franklin’s Job Security Depends on Breaking Through
James Franklin enjoys an 85% fan approval rating, but 2025 represents his ultimate test.
According to CFB insider Josh Pate, Franklin maintains strong fan support despite criticism from vocal minorities. However, the pressure has never been greater for the 12th-year coach.
College football insider Tom Hannifan captured the current sentiment perfectly: “I think the general temperature of the room is Penn State needs to win the National Championship in 2025. It’s boom or bust.”
The criticism stems from Franklin’s record against elite competition:
1-18 mark against AP Top 5 teams
Struggles in crucial moments against Ohio State and Michigan
Orange Bowl loss to Notre Dame continues pattern of near-misses
Yet dismissing Franklin’s tenure ignores substantial evidence of success. Since the 2016 Pittsburgh loss that sparked initial hot seat speculation, Franklin has compiled a 78-31 record (.716 winning percentage) with multiple conference championship game appearances and the program’s first playoff semifinal berth.
Franklin’s 2021 contract extension runs through 2031 with significant buyout protection, reflecting institutional confidence.
The Jim Knowles hiring represents the program’s commitment to providing Franklin with every resource necessary to break through. Penn State has built a consistent contender—something the program hadn’t achieved since the Joe Paterno era.
With eight consecutive seasons of five or more NFL draft picks and top-15 recruiting classes, the foundation for sustained excellence is undeniable.
Championship or Bust: Why 2025 Is Different
This isn’t just another season with high expectations—it’s the culmination of everything Franklin has built.
The organizational alignment between university leadership, athletic administration, and the football program has never been stronger. Athletic Director Pat Kraft and President Neeli Bendapudi have provided unprecedented resources and support.
What makes 2025 unique:
Drew Allar’s final season and Heisman candidacy
Elite roster continuity in the transfer portal era
Defensive coordinator upgrade with championship experience
Strongest recruiting pipeline in program history
Complete organizational support and resource allocation
The schedule presents both opportunities and challenges, with early tests serving as measuring sticks for elite aspirations. Success will be measured not just by wins and losses, but by the ability to finally break through in the biggest moments against the most elite competition.
Penn State has never been better positioned for a championship run.
The pieces are in place, the expectations are clear, and the opportunity is unprecedented. In Happy Valley, anything short of a championship-level season will feel like a disappointment, but the ceiling has never been higher for Penn State football.
The question isn’t whether Penn State can compete with college football’s elite—2024 proved that.
The question is whether they can beat them when it matters most. The answer will define both the 2025 season and James Franklin’s legacy in Happy Valley.
The Next Billion Dollar Game
College football isn’t just a sport anymore—it’s a high-stakes market where information asymmetry separates winners from losers. While the average fan sees only what happens between the sidelines, real insiders trade on the hidden dynamics reshaping programs from the inside out.
Our team has embedded with the power brokers who run this game. From the coaching carousel to NIL deals to transfer portal strategies, we’ve mapped the entire ecosystem with the kind of obsessive detail that would make a hedge fund analyst blush.
Why subscribe? Because in markets this inefficient, information creates alpha. Our subscribers knew which coaches were dead men walking months before the mainstream media caught on. They understood which programs were quietly transforming their recruiting apparatuses while competitors slept.
The smart money is already positioning for 2025. Are you?
Click below—it’s free—and join the small group of people who understand the real value of college football’s new economy.
The Minnesota Golden Gophers are sitting at a crossroads that will define the next chapter of their program.
Coming off an 8-5 campaign that ended with a Duke’s Mayo Bowl victory, Minnesota has built something special under P.J. Fleck. However, here’s the thing: building momentum and sustaining it are two entirely different endeavors. And in 2025, with an expanded Big Ten breathing down their necks and expectations higher than they’ve been in decades, the Gophers face their biggest test yet.
This isn’t just another season. This is the year that will determine whether Minnesota belongs among the Big Ten’s elite or remains stuck in the “pretty good” category.
The Defense That Could Carry Them to Glory
Minnesota’s 2024 defense wasn’t just good—it was suffocating.
The numbers tell the story better than any highlight reel:
Just 16.92 points allowed per game
285.7 total yards surrendered per contest
An absurd 91% fourth-down stop rate
17 interceptions, led by safety Koi Perich’s five picks
However, what makes this even more impressive is that most of this unit is expected to return in 2025. Perich is back. The front seven is largely intact. The scheme that held opponents to a 59% completion rate? Still there.
In a conference where offense gets all the headlines, Minnesota might win games by making life miserable for opposing quarterbacks.
The Transfer Portal Transformation Nobody Saw Coming
P.J. Fleck didn’t just shop in the transfer portal—he completely renovated his roster.
After losing their top two receivers (Daniel Jackson and Elijah Spencer combined for 127 catches and 1,547 yards), Minnesota went hunting for immediate replacements. What they found could transform their entire offensive identity:
The Skill Position Makeover:
A.J. Turner (Marshall): A dynamic running back who brings speed and versatility to complement Darius Taylor
Javon Tracy (Miami-OH): 57 catches, 818 yards, 7 TDs in 2024—projected as Minnesota’s new WR1
Logan Loya (UCLA): Over 1,300 career receiving yards, expected to anchor the slot
Malachi Coleman (Nebraska): A big-bodied red zone threat
The Offensive Line Rebuild:
Marcellus Marshall (UCF): Nearly 2,500 career snaps of experience
Jaden Ball (Purdue): The Gophers outrecruited Ohio State for his commitment
This wasn’t just filling holes. This was strategic roster construction designed to address every weakness from 2024.
The Quarterback Question That Changes Everything
Max Brosmer is gone, and with him goes the steady hand that managed last year’s offense.
Enter Drake Lindsey, a redshirt freshman with minimal game experience but unlimited potential. The learning curve will be steep. The margin for error? Practically nonexistent.
But here’s the wildcard: backup Zach Pyron from Georgia Tech brings 19 games of experience across three seasons. Sometimes the best thing that can happen to a young quarterback is knowing there’s legitimate competition breathing down their neck.
If Lindsey can handle the pressure and develop quickly, Minnesota’s ceiling skyrockets. If he struggles early, those road games at Ohio State and Oregon could get ugly fast.
A Schedule That Tells Two Different Stories
Minnesota’s 2025 schedule is a tale of opportunity and absolute terror.
The Good News:
Home games against Rutgers, Purdue, Nebraska, Michigan State, and Wisconsin
Manageable non-conference slate with Buffalo and Northwestern State
Built-in momentum builders before the tough tests
The Brutal Reality:
Road trips to Ohio State and Oregon—two preseason top-15 teams
A November gauntlet that could make or break their season
The annual Iowa game, where Floyd of Rosedale hangs in the balance
As one CBS Sports analysis noted: “Minnesota has failed to win seven or more regular season games only twice in the last six full (non-COVID) seasons.” The foundation for success is there. The question is whether they can navigate the landmines.
The Flaws That Could Derail Everything
For all the optimism, Minnesota still has some glaring vulnerabilities.
Offensive Line Chemistry: Three new starters trying to gel while protecting an inexperienced quarterback? That’s a recipe for disaster if the timing isn’t perfect.
Run Defense Concerns: Allowing 109.6 rushing yards per game last season, including 272 yards in a loss to Iowa. Physical Big Ten ground games could exploit this weakness.
Offensive Predictability: If the passing game doesn’t improve dramatically, teams will likely stack the box against Darius Taylor, forcing Minnesota into obvious passing situations where they struggled in 2024.
What Success Looks Like
Sportsbooks set Minnesota’s win total at 6.5, ranking them 11th in the Big Ten.
That feels conservative for a program that has consistently exceeded expectations under Fleck. Realistic projections range from 7-8 wins as a floor, with legitimate upside for 9-10 wins if everything clicks.
The ceiling? A potential Big Ten title game appearance if the stars align perfectly. The floor? Missing a bowl game entirely if the quarterback situation implodes and the offensive line can’t protect.
But here’s what makes this season so fascinating: Minnesota has all the pieces to surprise people. Elite defense. Strategic portal additions. A favorable early schedule to build confidence.
The Fleck Factor: Prove It or Lose It
P.J. Fleck isn’t on the traditional “hot seat,” but make no mistake—this is a prove-it year.
His contract provides job security, and five bowl wins in six years speaks to sustained success. But expectations have evolved. Fans aren’t satisfied with “pretty good” anymore. They want to see Minnesota compete with Ohio State and Michigan, not just hope to beat Rutgers and Purdue.
The program’s best stretch since the early 1960s has created a foundation of success. Now comes the hard part: taking the next step toward genuine Big Ten contention.
The Bottom Line: Championship or Bust
Minnesota enters 2025 with momentum, talent, and opportunity converging at the perfect moment.
The defense is elite. The transfer portal additions address every major weakness. The schedule provides a clear path to success. But in college football, potential means nothing without execution.
If Drake Lindsey develops quickly, if the offensive line gels, if the new receivers create the explosive plays Minnesota lacked in 2024, this could be the breakthrough season Gopher fans have been waiting for.
If not? 2025 becomes another “what if” season in a program that’s had too many of those already.
The stage is set. The pieces are in place. Now, Minnesota has to prove it belongs among the Big Ten’s best—or risk watching that window close for years to come.
After Purdue’s historically catastrophic 2024 season, a 1-11 nightmare that included the worst home loss in program history, the Boilermakers face 2025 with a simple reality: nowhere to go but up. The Barry Odom era begins with one of the most dramatic rebuilding projects in recent college football memory, featuring an almost entirely new roster, a proven turnaround artist at the helm, and expectations so modest they might be achievable.
The 2024 Disaster That Changed Everything
The numbers tell a story of complete collapse.
Purdue’s 2024 campaign wasn’t just bad—it was historically, embarrassingly, change-your-phone-number-and-move-to-another-state bad. After a season-opening 49-0 victory over Indiana State that felt like fool’s gold, the Boilermakers lost their next 11 games in increasingly painful fashion.
The low points that defined the season:
A 66-7 home massacre by Notre Dame (the worst home loss in program history)
A season-ending 66-0 shutout by Indiana that sent fans streaming for the exits
Three total shutout losses (a program record)
An average of just 15.8 points per game while surrendering nearly 40
A turnover margin of -14 that spoke to fundamental breakdowns everywhere
Ryan Walters was fired after compiling a 5-19 record over two seasons, and honestly, the only surprise was that it took this long.
Enter Barry Odom: The Turnaround Specialist
What do you do when your program hits rock bottom?
You hire the guy who specializes in digging teams out of holes. Barry Odom, the 48-year-old former UNLV coach, spent the last two seasons orchestrating one of college football’s most impressive transformations. In Las Vegas, he transformed a perennial doormat into a Mountain West powerhouse, leading the Rebels to back-to-back championship game appearances and an 11-3 record in 2024, their best season in 40 years.
Odom’s track record speaks for itself:
19-8 record at UNLV in just two seasons
Previous head coaching experience at Missouri (25-25 from 2016-2019)
Defensive background with a proven ability to develop talent
Experience building programs with limited resources
As Purdue athletic director Mike Bobinski explained: “He is a proven and experienced leader who has brought success to two different football programs and has made an impact on the lives of countless student-athletes.”
Odom himself has made bold promises about the rebuild: “Their trust will be rewarded with a football program that will reflect the personality and excellence Purdue is widely known for — character, intensity, and a no-excuses winning attitude. I can assure you it will be built to last.”
The Great Roster Revolution
Here’s where things get really interesting.
Purdue didn’t just change coaches—they changed virtually everything else as well. The Boilermakers have added over 50 transfer players and 15 incoming freshmen, creating what amounts to an almost entirely new team. This level of personnel turnover is extraordinary even in the modern transfer portal era.
The exodus was equally dramatic:
Safety Dillon Thieneman (transferred)
Defensive end Will Heldt (transferred)
Tight end Max Klare (transferred to Ohio State)
Linebacker Yanni Karlafits (transferred)
29 additional players entered the transfer portal after spring practice
The biggest win? Retaining star running back Devin Mockobee, who has 2,466 career rushing yards and 21 touchdowns. In a sea of new faces, Mockobee provides the offensive continuity and proven production that will be essential as Odom establishes his system.
The Coaching Staff: Familiar Faces in New Places
Odom moved quickly to assemble his staff, bringing proven winners from his previous stops.
Key hires include:
Josh Henson (Offensive Coordinator): Arrived from USC where he helped lead the Trojans to the top spot in Big Ten passing
Mike Scherer (Defensive Coordinator): Followed Odom from UNLV, where he guided the Rebels’ defense to impressive national rankings in interceptions and turnovers forced
Charles Clark (Defensive Backs): Five seasons at Memphis, most recently as associate head coach
Kelvin Green (Defensive Line): Worked with Odom at Arkansas
The theme here is clear: Odom is surrounding himself with coaches he trusts, which makes sense when you’re trying to rebuild a program from scratch.
Position Battles and Key Players
The quarterback competition remains wide open.
Ryan Browne returns after a brief stint in the transfer portal, but he’ll face stiff competition from newcomers Malachi Singleton, Evans Chuba, and Bennett Meredith. Whoever wins this battle will be crucial to any offensive success, especially with an entirely new receiving corps.
The most promising additions:
CJ Nunnally IV (DE, from Akron): Among the MAC’s leaders in tackles for loss
Tahj Ra-El (DB, from Memphis): Experienced safety who followed his coach to Purdue
Richard Toney Jr. (DB, from TCU): Known for ball-hawking ability
Zyntreacs Otey (CB, Freshman): Four-star recruit who reclassified to join early
These players represent the type of talent injection the program desperately needs after years of struggling with recruiting.
Schedule Reality Check
Let’s be honest about what Odom is walking into.
Purdue’s 2025 schedule ranks 11th nationally in strength and third in the Big Ten. Nine of their 12 opponents played in bowl games last year, and three (Indiana, Notre Dame, and Ohio State) reached the College Football Playoff.
The most realistic path to wins:
Gimme games: Ball State and Southern Illinois in the first two weeks
Potential wins: Minnesota, Northwestern, Rutgers, and Washington
Pray for miracles: Pretty much everyone else
Sportsbooks have set Purdue’s win total at 3.5, tied for the lowest in the Big Ten with Northwestern. Most expert projections suggest 3-9 or 4-8, with bowl eligibility considered a pipe dream.
The Cultural Revolution
This isn’t just about new players and coaches.
Odom faces the challenge of establishing an entirely new culture and identity with a group that barely knows each other. Building team chemistry from scratch is difficult under normal circumstances—doing it with 70 new faces while playing one of the nation’s toughest schedules is borderline impossible.
Purdue AD Mike Bobinski has acknowledged the program must modernize its approach, particularly regarding NIL: “Our folks didn’t necessarily respond warmly to the way NIL evolved in the recent past, but that’s going to change. You need a coach who understands that and embraces that the new world is going to require a new way of thinking.”
This philosophical shift represents a recognition that Purdue’s previous approach was woefully inadequate in the current college football landscape.
Redefining Success
Here’s the thing about rock bottom: it gives you perspective.
Success in 2025 won’t be measured solely by wins and losses. The primary objectives focus on competitiveness and culture-building:
Avoiding the type of blowout losses that characterized 2024
Keeping games close and showing consistent effort for four quarters
Building chemistry among newcomers and establishing leadership
Creating a foundation for future recruiting and development
As one analyst noted about Odom’s track record: “He’s the type of guy who has succeeded in trusting his schemes without much, if any, blue-chip talent,” suggesting that modest recruiting rankings shouldn’t preclude improvement with proper coaching.
The Long Game
This is a marathon, not a sprint.
While immediate results may be limited, 2025 represents the beginning of what Purdue hopes will be a sustainable turnaround. Odom’s experience with quick rebuilds at UNLV and Missouri provides reason for optimism that competitiveness can be established relatively quickly.
The key factors for long-term success:
Developing current talent while upgrading through recruiting
Establishing systems that maximize available resources
Building a culture that attracts and retains quality players
Adapting to the modern college football landscape
The Bottom Line
Purdue football enters 2025 with rock-bottom expectations and sky-high potential for improvement.
The Barry Odom era begins with a recognition that this is a multi-year project requiring patience, strategic thinking, and consistent execution. For Boilermaker fans, this season will test their loyalty as the program attempts to rebuild from one of the worst campaigns in its history.
But here’s the beautiful thing about starting from the bottom: every step forward feels like progress.
Success will be measured not just in wins and losses, but in effort, competitiveness, and signs of the cultural change necessary to return Purdue to respectability. The foundation is being laid for what the program hopes will be a return to the success it enjoyed as recently as 2022, when the Boilermakers played in the Big Ten Championship Game.
Whether that foundation can support sustainable success will begin to be determined when Barry Odom’s rebuilt roster takes the field against Ball State on August 30th.
Time to find out if rock bottom was really the bottom.
The Next Billion Dollar Game
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