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Here’s Why G.J. Kinne’s Texas State Transformation Goes Deeper Than Anyone Realizes

Mark Haines on August 9, 2025

While most analysts recognized Texas State as preseason favorites, what they missed is the deeper transformation Kinne is building—one that goes far beyond predictions and win totals.

They see G.J. Kinne’s 1.637 hot seat rating and think: “Solid coach, nice story, probably sustainable.” What they’re looking at is the beginning of something much bigger.

The Numbers Don’t Lie (But They Don’t Tell The Whole Story Either)

Here’s what everyone knows:

  • 16-10 overall record in two FBS seasons
  • Back-to-back 8-5 campaigns
  • .615 winning percentage against weak competition
  • 2nd-highest rating in the Sun Belt Conference
  • $2 million annual contract extension through 2031

Here’s what they’re missing:

Texas State had never won a bowl game as an FBS program before Kinne arrived. Not once. In 12 years. The program was so irrelevant that when Jake Spavital got fired after going 13-35, most people couldn’t even name Texas State’s conference.

Now they’re back-to-back bowl winners with the highest-paid coach in the Sun Belt.

That’s not incremental improvement—that’s transformation.

The McCloud Experiment That Changed Everything

Quarterback was a revolving door before McCloud—a reality that made his arrival all the more pivotal in solidifying the offense and raising the program’s ceiling.

When Jordan McCloud entered the transfer portal after South Florida, every Sun Belt coach wanted him. He was the reigning conference Player of the Year with 3,000+ passing yards, dual-threat capability, and a proven track record. Most coaches would have pitched tradition, facilities, or playing time. Kinne pitched something different: “Come help us build something nobody expects.”

McCloud bought in, and the results speak for themselves:

  • 273 completions on 389 attempts
  • 3,227 passing yards
  • 30 touchdown passes
  • 70.2% completion rate
  • 278 rushing yards and 7 rushing touchdowns

But here’s the part that matters most: Texas State entered 2024 with sky-high expectations as Sun Belt favorites. While they came up just short of a conference title, the program’s trajectory remains upward. In wins, Texas State averaged 523.4 yards per game. In losses, that number dropped to 402.6 yards. The difference wasn’t talent—it was system execution under pressure.

When Kinne’s offense operated correctly, they were unstoppable.

The Roster Revolution Nobody Saw Coming

While other coaches complain about the transfer portal, Kinne turned it into a weapon.

After McCloud exhausted his eligibility, most programs would have panicked. Kinne added three experienced quarterbacks while maintaining cultural standards that separate his program from desperate portal fishing:

  • Gevani McCoy (Oregon State transfer)
  • Holden Geriner (Auburn transfer)
  • Nate Yarnell (Pittsburgh transfer)
  • Brad Jackson (returning sophomore)

“This is an open competition and none of those guys got NIL money to come here,” Kinne explained. “This is an opportunity to come prove yourself to be the guy.”

While Texas State athletes do benefit from NIL, several quarterback transfers chose the program for its culture and opportunity—not as an NIL bidding war.

That’s not just roster management—that’s cultural design.

The Statistical Story That Reveals Everything

The numbers tell you exactly where Texas State stands and where they’re headed.

Offensive Production (2024):

  • 208.2 rushing yards per game
  • 268.7 passing yards per game
  • 476.9 total yards per game
  • 36.5 points per game

The Critical Wins vs. Losses Split:

In 8 wins:

  • 7.1 yards per play
  • 245.5 rushing yards per game
  • 2.8 rushing touchdowns per game

In 5 losses:

  • 5.5 yards per play
  • 148.6 rushing yards per game
  • 1.0 rushing touchdowns per game

See the pattern? When Texas State could run the ball, they dominated. When they couldn’t, they became one-dimensional. But here’s what’s interesting: their passing numbers stayed relatively consistent (277.9 yards in wins vs. 254.0 in losses).

The problem wasn’t the passing game—it was balance.

The Defense Nobody Talks About

Everyone focuses on Kinne’s offensive background, but they should be watching the defensive improvements.

Defensive splits tell the real story:

In Wins:

  • 332.5 yards allowed per game
  • 109.8 rushing yards allowed per game

In Losses:

  • 397.8 yards allowed per game
  • 196.2 rushing yards allowed per game

When Texas State stopped the run, they won. When they didn’t, they lost. It’s that simple. Returning defensive anchor Kalil Alexander (6.5 sacks, 11 tackles for loss) plus veteran secondary leaders Ryan Nolan and Bobby Crosby provide the foundation.

But the real improvement will come from depth, and depth comes from recruiting.

The Contract Extension That Changes Everything

November 2024: Texas State extends Kinne through 2031.

Seven years. $14 million total. Highest-paid coach in the Sun Belt. That’s not just financial commitment—that’s institutional belief. “We’ve been impressed with his leadership and ability to quickly establish a culture that elevates the experience of our student-athletes,” Athletic Director Don Coryell said.

Translation: “We think this is just the beginning.”

The extension came before the 2024 season ended. Before bowl eligibility was secured. Before the final evaluation was complete.

That tells you everything about where Texas State thinks this program is heading.

The 2025 Schedule Reality Check

Here’s where things get interesting for Kinne’s third season.

The schedule includes legitimate tests that will reveal whether the improvement is sustainable:

  • Road trip to Arizona State (Big 12 opponent)
  • Home game against UTSA (American Conference)
  • Sun Belt opponents that finished above .500

This isn’t the cupcake schedule that artificially inflated early records. These are prove-it games. Win 6-7 games against this schedule, and Texas State establishes itself as a legitimate program. Win 8-9 games, and they become a conference championship contender.

Win 10+ games, and Kinne becomes a Power Four candidate.

The Recruiting Philosophy That’s Working

Most coaches talk about “building culture,” but Kinne does it.

“We’re always going to recruit Texas high school kids, and that’s really going to be the foundation of our program,” he explained. “I think that part was missing before we got here.” But he supplements high school recruiting with strategic transfer additions—not panic moves, but strategic additions.

The difference matters:

  • High school kids provide the cultural foundation
  • Transfers fill immediate needs
  • Together, they create competitive balance faster than traditional recruiting cycles allow

This approach addresses previous recruiting deficiencies that left Texas State competing for players other programs overlooked.

The Hot Seat Rating That Tells The Truth

1.637—That number represents a coach significantly exceeding expectations.

For context:

  • Above 1.0 = exceeding expectations
  • Below 0.5 = termination pressure
  • 1.637 = exceptional performance

The “.615 winning percentage against weak competition” qualifier misses the bigger picture. Texas State wasn’t beating weak competition before Kinne arrived—they were losing to everyone. Now they’re winning consistently enough to worry about strength of schedule.

That’s progress worth recognizing.

The Future Nobody Wants To Admit

Here’s what’s about to happen based on the current trajectory:

Year 3 (2025): 7-8 wins, bowl eligible again. Year 4 (2026): Conference championship contention
Year 5 (2027): Power Four interest begins

The infrastructure is already in place:

  • $11.6 million indoor practice facility under construction
  • Highest coaching salary in conference
  • Proven system that develops players
  • Recruiting momentum in talent-rich Texas
  • Institutional commitment at the highest levels

Most importantly, Texas State isn’t treating this like an experiment anymore—they’re treating it like an investment.

Why Everyone Else Is Missing The Point

College football analysts love to debate “ceilings” and “realistic expectations,” but they’re asking the wrong questions.

The right question isn’t: “How good can Texas State become?” The right question is: “How quickly can Kinne build sustainable excellence?” Based on the evidence, the answer is: Faster than anyone expects.

The Bottom Line

G.J. Kinne’s hot seat rating of 1.637 doesn’t just indicate job security—it indicates transformation in progress.

Texas State went from irrelevant to bowl winner in Year 1. From bowl winner to consistent winner in Year 2. Year 3 is about proving they belong in bigger conversations. And based on everything we’ve seen so far, they’re ahead of schedule.

Hot Seat Temperature: Sub-zero. Kinne isn’t just safe—he’s building something special that nobody else saw coming.

The only question left is how long it takes everyone else to catch up.

Want to know which other “under the radar” coaches are about to be on the hot seat?

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Why Major Applewhite’s Massive Roster Turnover and Houston Failure Make 2025 His Most Critical Season at South Alabama

Mark Haines on August 7, 2025

Most college football fans have no idea what happened at South Alabama in 2024.

They went 7-6. They won their bowl game. They kept the program moving forward after their previous coach left for Alabama. But here’s what the numbers don’t tell you: Major Applewhite is sitting on the most precarious coaching throne in college football.

His hot seat rating? 1.224

His winning percentage against weak competition? .538

And 2025 is about to expose whether he’s actually a head coach or just an offensive coordinator who got lucky for one season.

The Houston Disaster That Everyone Conveniently Forgot

Let me give you the brutal truth about Applewhite’s track record.

At Houston (2017-2018), he compiled a resume of failure that should terrify every South Alabama fan. The numbers don’t lie: 15-11 record with three bowl losses. The final game was a 70-14 demolition by Army that ended his career in humiliating fashion: two seasons, zero meaningful wins, and a pink slip.

“After a thorough evaluation of our football program, it is my assessment that our future opportunities for success are better addressed by making this very difficult decision now,” Houston athletic director Chris Pezman said when he axed Applewhite.

That wasn’t coach-speak.

That was a public execution.

And now South Alabama is betting its program on the same guy who couldn’t win the games that mattered at Houston.

The 2024 Numbers Game: Good Stats, Bad Questions

Applewhite’s first season looked decent on paper.

The offensive production validated his reputation as a skilled play-caller. South Alabama averaged 442.2 yards per game and 32.4 points per game, showcasing the balanced attack that made him famous as a coordinator. QB Gio Lopez completed passes at a 66% clip for 2,559 yards, 18 touchdowns, and just five interceptions. The backfield duo of Fluff Bothwell (832 yards, 13 TDs) and Kentrel Bullock (831 yards, 7 TDs) formed one of the Sun Belt’s most productive tandems. WR Jamaal Pritchett’s 1,127 receiving yards and nine touchdowns provided the explosive element that stretched defenses.

Those are legitimately impressive numbers.

But here’s where it gets interesting.

The defense was a complete disaster. South Alabama allowed 391 yards per game, ranking 67th nationally, while surrendering 25.2 points per game. The pass defense gave up 248.8 yards through the air while allowing a 64.7% completion rate. Most telling was the situational breakdown: 482 total yards allowed per game in losses compared to just 313 in wins.

You know what this tells me?

Applewhite can still coordinate an offense.

But he has zero clue how to build a complete football program.

The Personnel Exodus That Changes Everything

Here’s where Applewhite’s 2025 gets terrifying.

The roster turnover isn’t normal attrition—it’s a complete program reset. Gone are the key contributors who made 2024’s offensive success possible:

  • Gio Lopez (QB) – 2,559 passing yards
  • Fluff Bothwell (RB) – 832 yards, 13 TDs
  • Jamaal Pritchett (WR) – 1,127 receiving yards
  • Blayne Myrick (LB) – 101 tackles, team leader
  • Jaden Voisin (S) – 83 tackles, 5 INTs

This level of personnel exodus exposes the fundamental challenge every coordinator-turned-head coach faces.

Inheriting talent is easy.

Developing talent is hard.

And now Applewhite has to prove he can 9coach players instead of just calling plays for inherited superstars.

The Quarterback Situation Is Terrifying

Want to know how screwed South Alabama is at the most critical position?

The 2025 quarterback room reads like a coaching nightmare. Bishop Davenport returns with just 606 yards and three touchdowns in limited 2024 action. Transfer Zach Pyron brings Georgia Tech experience but remains completely unknown in Applewhite’s system. Two true freshmen round out the depth chart with zero college snaps between them. This isn’t depth—this is desperation.

Applewhite’s entire offensive philosophy requires precision timing and decision-making.

You know what doesn’t have precision timing?

Inexperienced quarterbacks learning a new system.

This is going to be ugly.

The Infrastructure Investment That Raises The Stakes

South Alabama just broke ground on an $11.6 million indoor practice facility.

The administration is paying Applewhite a competitive salary while investing serious resources in football infrastructure. They’re betting big on this experiment with state-of-the-art facilities designed to attract recruits and demonstrate program commitment. The message is clear: South Alabama views itself as more than a transitional program waiting for the next coaching search.

But here’s what nobody wants to admit.

Facilities don’t win games.

Coaches do.

And Applewhite still hasn’t proven he can coach a team to sustained success.

The Defensive Coordinator Gamble That Could Save His Career

Applewhite hired Will Windham as defensive coordinator, implementing a 4-2-5 scheme designed to counter modern Sun Belt passing attacks.

This might be the decision that makes or breaks his tenure. The 2024 defense allowed 391 yards per game and collapsed completely in losses, surrendering 482 yards per game compared to just 313 in wins. Windham’s system should theoretically address those pass defense struggles while utilizing returning linebacker talent like Darius McKenzie (72 tackles) and safety Wesley Miller (59 tackles, 3 interceptions).

If Windham can field even an average defense, Applewhite’s offensive system has enough firepower to win games.

If the defense remains porous, no amount of offensive creativity will matter.

The defensive line features no returning starters, creating uncertainty about pass rush generation and run-stopping ability, but experienced coordinator hires sometimes work magic with overlooked talent.

The Player Development Test That Defines Everything

Here’s the fundamental question that will determine Applewhite’s future at South Alabama.

Can he develop players, or does he only succeed with inherited talent? In 2024, he inherited Gio Lopez, Fluff Bothwell, and Jamaal Pritchett—proven performers who made his offensive system look brilliant. Now those players are gone, replaced by unknowns who need coaching, development, and time to master complex concepts.

This is where coordinator-turned-head coaches usually fail.

Calling plays for established stars is entirely different from teaching fundamentals to raw prospects.

If Bishop Davenport develops into a reliable starter, if the young receivers learn to create separation, if the offensive line gels despite personnel changes, then Applewhite proves he can coach. But if the offense sputters while he searches for answers, it exposes the difference between game-planning and program-building.

The 2025 season will reveal whether South Alabama hired a coach or just rented a coordinator.

The Hot Seat Mathematics That Don’t Lie

Here’s the deal with that 1.224 hot seat rating.

It means he’s currently exceeding expectations despite a .538 winning percentage against weak competition. The rating reflects unusual positioning for a second-year coach—performing above projections while facing fundamental questions about sustainable progress. The disconnect reveals the complexity of evaluating coaches who inherit successful programs amid significant roster turnover.

But expectations change fast in college football.

Year Two demands specific deliverables:

  • Bowl game appearance (minimum standard)
  • Competitive games against quality opponents
  • Proof that 2024 wasn’t just inherited momentum from Wommack’s culture

Miss any of those benchmarks?

The hot seat gets scorching.

Why 2025 Will Define Applewhite’s Career

Most coaches get a honeymoon period.

Applewhite’s honeymoon ended the moment he signed that contract. South Alabama fans tasted success under Wommack with 10 wins in 2022 and their first bowl victory in 2023. They experienced championship-level expectations for the first time in program history. They’re not going backwards willingly, and administrative patience has limits when infrastructure investments demand returns.

The fan base won’t accept moral victories or moral victories disguised as “building for the future.”

They want results.

And suppose Applewhite can’t prove he’s more than just an offensive coordinator playing dress-up as a head coach. In that case, South Alabama will find someone who can deliver sustained success rather than inherited momentum.

The Bottom Line:

Major Applewhite has all the tools to succeed at South Alabama.

Administrative support, infrastructure investment, and recent program success provide the foundation for sustained growth. The $11.6 million facility investment demonstrates institutional commitment that most Group of Five programs lack. His offensive coordinator credentials remain legitimate, and his recruiting connections throughout Texas and the Southeast create pipeline opportunities for talent acquisition.

But he also has all the warning signs of a coordinator who’s in over his head.

Massive roster turnover, unproven ability to develop players, defensive struggles that undermine offensive success, and previous head coaching failure at a higher level create doubt about long-term viability. The quarterback situation threatens offensive consistency, while the cultural transition from Wommack’s defensive identity requires time that impatient fan bases rarely provide.

2025 isn’t just about bowl eligibility.

It’s about whether Major Applewhite can coach.

Hot Seat Temperature: Warm but stable. Infrastructure investment and administrative support provide a cushion, but 2025 results will determine whether he builds on Year One’s success or starts trending toward the exit.

🥠 Hot Seat Rating Fortune Cookie: 1.224

“The coach who exceeds low expectations while failing high standards walks a tightrope made of borrowed time. Success today does not guarantee tomorrow’s job security when yesterday’s failures cast long shadows.”

Translation: Applewhite is currently performing above what people expected from a first-year coach taking over a program in transition. But that 1.224 rating means he’s living on borrowed credibility—one bad season drops him below the critical 1.0 threshold where expectations meet reality, and athletic directors start making phone calls.

Want to know which other “under the radar” coaches are about to be on the hot seat?

I track the real hot seats (not just the obvious ones) every Friday in my free newsletter.

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Louisiana Coach Michael Desormeaux Faces Make-Or-Break 2025 Season After Losing All-Star Players From 10-Win Team

Mark Haines on August 6, 2025

Here’s what nobody wants to admit about Louisiana football: The 2024 season was a mirage.

Michael Desormeaux’s 10-4 record and Sun Belt Coach of the Year award look impressive in the trophy case. His hot seat rating of 1.171 suggests a coach exceeding expectations. The five-year contract extension through 2029 screams institutional confidence.

But strip away the narrative, and you’ll find something far more troubling.

Louisiana’s “breakthrough” season collapsed the moment it faced real competition.

The 6-Point Season That Exposed Everything

Two games told the entire story.

Louisiana scored six total points in their two most important games of 2024—a 3-31 humiliation against Marshall in the Sun Belt Championship and a 3-34 embarrassment against TCU in the New Mexico Bowl. When the lights got brightest, when the stakes mattered most, Louisiana’s offense didn’t just struggle.

It disappeared entirely.

The numbers reveal the systematic breakdown:

  • Against Marshall and TCU: 232 total yards per game
  • Season average: 415.1 yards per game
  • Championship/bowl offensive production: 56% decrease
  • First downs in crucial games: 6.5 per game average
  • Season first downs average: 20.7 per game

Ben Wooldridge, the Sun Belt Offensive Player of the Year with 2,453 passing yards and 66% completion rate, looked like he’d never seen a football before when it mattered most.

This wasn’t bad luck—this was a coaching staff getting completely outclassed when preparation mattered most.

The Inherited Talent Truth Everyone’s Ignoring

Here’s the uncomfortable reality about Desormeaux’s 23-18 overall record.

Every single impact player who made Louisiana successful in 2024 was recruited and developed under Billy Napier’s system. Look at the proof:

  • Ben Wooldridge: Napier recruit, Sun Belt Offensive Player of the Year
  • Kenneth Almendares: Napier recruit, Lou Groza Award winner (28/31 FGs)
  • Zylan Perry: Napier recruit, 695 yards rushing
  • K.C. Ossai: Napier recruit, 115 tackles
  • All starting offensive linemen: Napier recruits

Louisiana’s 15 All-Sun Belt selections, the most in program history, represented the final remnants of Napier’s championship-caliber recruiting classes.

Desormeaux inherited a championship-caliber roster and managed to go 6-0 on the road while completely choking in the two games that defined the season.

The real test starts now.

2025: The Year Desormeaux’s Coaching Gets Exposed

Louisiana enters 2025 facing the most critical roster turnover in recent program history.

Gone from 2024’s success:

  • Ben Wooldridge (QB): 2,453 yards, 17 TDs
  • Kenneth Almendares (K): 90.3% field goal accuracy, Lou Groza winner
  • Lance Legendre (WR): 826 receiving yards, 16.9 average per catch
  • Jacob Bernard (WR): 375 yards, reliable target
  • K.C. Ossai (LB): 115 tackles, defensive leader
  • Tyrone Lewis Jr. (S): 4 interceptions
  • Chandler Fields (QB): 897 yards, 72.4% completion rate

What’s left:

  • Zylan Perry: 695 rushing yards, 6.2 average
  • Some offensive line continuity
  • Defensive pieces with limited experience
  • Question marks at every skill position

Every single player who made Desormeaux look competent in 2024 has exhausted their eligibility.

This is what happens when you’re managing talent instead of developing it.

The Walker Howard Disaster Nobody Saw Coming

Louisiana fans are celebrating Walker Howard’s homecoming like it’s the second coming of Joe Burrow.

Here’s the reality they’re ignoring: Howard has completed 10 career passes for 63 yards in three college seasons.

Ten. Passes. In three years.

The former five-star recruit’s college journey reveals everything:

  • At LSU (2022): 2-of-4 passing, 7 yards, couldn’t beat out backups
  • At Ole Miss (2023): 3-of-4 passing, 56 yards in limited action
  • At Ole Miss (2024): 0 completions, couldn’t earn playing time

Lane Kiffin, who turned Matt Corral into an NFL draft pick and developed Jaxson Dart into a productive starter, couldn’t find ways to get Howard meaningful snaps in two full seasons.

But somehow, Michael Desormeaux is going to unlock this mystery?

The quarterback room now features Howard competing with redshirt freshman D’Wayne Winfield and Daniel Beale.

This isn’t depth—this is desperation.

The Schedule That Will Expose Every Weakness

Louisiana’s 2025 schedule starts with a friendly before becoming brutal.

Early opportunities:

  • Rice (home opener)
  • McNeese State (home)
  • These games should build confidence for the rebuilt roster

Reality check begins:

  • At Missouri, SEC competition that will expose talent gaps
  • At Troy: Road test against Sun Belt contender
  • At James Madison: Another dangerous road game
  • At South Alabama: Program with postseason aspirations
  • At Arkansas State: Final road test

Remember: This coaching staff got outscored 65-6 in its two biggest games of 2024 with superior talent.

Now they’re facing elevated competition with inferior personnel and zero proven leadership.

The Culture Problem Nobody’s Discussing

Championship programs perform when pressure increases.

Desormeaux’s teams wilt under scrutiny. The evidence speaks for itself:

Regular season success (2024):

  • 6-0 road record (second in program history)
  • 7-2 Sun Belt play
  • 30.9 points per game
  • One of six FBS teams with a perfect road record

High-stakes failure (2024):

  • Sun Belt Championship: 3-31 loss to Marshall
  • New Mexico Bowl: 3-34 loss to TCU
  • Total points in crucial games: 6
  • Total yards in crucial games: 464

Billy Napier’s Louisiana teams consistently delivered in crucial moments through conference championships and meaningful bowl victories.

Desormeaux’s signature moments involve getting shut out when everything’s on the line.

Culture isn’t built through regular-season success against inferior competition—culture reveals itself when circumstances become impossible.

The Recruiting Smoke Screen

Desormeaux’s recruiting efforts look impressive on paper, but miss the crucial point.

Recruiting and developing are completely different skills:

  • Position coaches excel at maximizing individual talent
  • Head coaches must build organizational systems that elevate collective performance
  • Coordinators focus on scheme execution
  • Program builders create sustainable competitive advantages

Desormeaux spent years perfecting tight end techniques under Napier. Now he’s responsible for program architecture, staff management, game-day decision making, and cultural development.

His .561 winning percentage against weak competition over four years suggests a coach who can manage talent but struggles to create sustainable advantages.

The 2024 season confirmed this pattern—success against beatable opponents, complete failure when facing equivalent or superior coaching.

The Contract Extension That Makes No Sense

Louisiana’s administration awarded Desormeaux a five-year extension through 2029 based on one successful regular season.

This decision represents either institutional patience or administrative panic.

The extension timeline doesn’t match college football reality:

  • Programs rarely provide extended timelines for unproven coaches
  • Fan expectations increase with contract investments
  • Recruiting momentum depends on job security perception
  • Bowl eligibility becomes a minimum expectation, not an achievement

Desormeaux has shown he can manage inherited talent and recruit adequately, but he hasn’t demonstrated the ability to develop systems that transcend personnel limitations.

The extension protects Louisiana from coaching searches while potentially locking them into mediocrity.

What 2025 Actually Means For Louisiana

The upcoming season represents Desormeaux’s first authentic coaching evaluation.

Success indicators:

  • Bowl eligibility with an inexperienced roster
  • Competitive games against quality opponents
  • Evidence of player development beyond inherited talent
  • Performance improvement in high-pressure situations

Failure indicators:

  • Regression from 2024’s win total
  • Blowout losses to superior competition
  • Continued struggles in crucial moments
  • Lack of offensive identity without proven playmakers

Louisiana fans deserve authentic evaluation, not comfortable narratives about moral victories.

The program invested serious resources in facilities and coaching salaries based on 2024’s regular season success—that investment deserves an honest assessment.

The Bottom Line Nobody Wants To Hear

Michael Desormeaux inherited a championship-caliber roster and managed it to regular-season success before choking spectacularly when the stakes increased.

Now he gets to prove whether he can coach.

The massive roster turnover eliminates every excuse:

  • No more Napier recruits to lean on
  • No more proven playmakers to mask scheme limitations
  • No more experienced leadership to stabilize crucial moments
  • No more talent advantages to overcome coaching deficiencies

Walker Howard’s addition provides potential upside but doesn’t address systematic coaching concerns. The schedule will expose weaknesses that superior competition always reveals.

Louisiana’s 2025 season will determine whether Desormeaux represents the program’s future or merely its most expensive mistake.

The hot seat temperature remains cool due to the recent contract extension, but college football rarely affords extended timelines for coaches to prove competence.

Year four becomes definitive—success validates the investment, failure reveals the truth everyone’s been avoiding.

Michael Desormeaux is about to find out if he can coach, or if he’s been managing other people’s talent all along.

Want to know which other “under the radar” coaches are about to be on the hot seat?

I track the real hot seats (not just the obvious ones) every Friday in my free newsletter.

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The $1 Million Coach Nobody’s Watching Collapses in Real Time

Mark Haines on August 5, 2025

While everyone debates whether Brent Venables can turn around Oklahoma, the most expensive failure in the Sun Belt is happening right under our noses.

His name is Tim Beck. He makes $1.05 million annually. And he’s about to prove that following a legend is college football’s cruelest assignment.

Here’s the story nobody’s telling about Coastal Carolina’s slow-motion disaster.

The Impossible Standard That Doomed Beck Before He Started

Let me paint you a picture of what Tim Beck inherited at Coastal Carolina.

Jamey Chadwell’s final act (2019-2022):

  • 31-6 record over three seasons
  • 2020: 11-1, ranked #9 in AP poll, Sun Belt champions
  • 2020 AP Coach of the Year (first Sun Belt coach ever)
  • Multiple wins over ranked opponents
  • Created a national brand from nothing

Then Chadwell left for Liberty, and Beck walked into a program expecting miracles.

You know what’s fascinating about college football? Everyone talks about “maintaining excellence” as if it were a simple math equation. Keep the same recruits, run similar plays, and success automatically continues.

But here’s what the data shows about Beck’s “successful” start:

Year 1 (2023): 8-5, Hawaii Bowl win
Everyone celebrated. “Great hire! Smooth transition!”

Year 2 (2024): 6-7, blown out 15-44 in Myrtle Beach Bowl
Suddenly, the cracks became canyons.

The 2024 Numbers That Reveal Everything

Want to know why Beck’s seat is getting warm? Look at these statistics:

Offensive production:

  • 374.5 total yards per game
  • 29.4 points per game
  • 54.5% completion rate

Defensive struggles:

  • 414.6 yards allowed per game
  • 31.6 points allowed per game
  • Gave up 411 total points in 13 games

Here’s the math that should terrify Coastal fans: They scored 382 points and allowed 411. That’s a -29 point differential for the season.

But wait—the marketing department has some shiny distractions:

  • “Led Sun Belt in rushing offense!”
  • “Kade Hensley is perfect on extra points!”

You know what they won’t mention? They got blown out 44-15 in their bowl game. When the lights were brightest and the program needed to prove it belonged, they got embarrassed on national television.

The Pattern That Shows Beck Can’t Close

Here’s what makes Beck’s situation so dangerous: He’s consistent in all the wrong ways.

Look at the 2024 losses:

  • Virginia: Lost 24-43
  • James Madison: Lost 7-39
  • Louisiana: Lost 24-34
  • Troy: Lost 24-38
  • Marshall: Lost 19-31
  • Georgia Southern: Lost 6-26
  • UTSA (Bowl): Lost 15-44

See the pattern? Beck’s teams don’t just lose—they get dominated when it matters most.

In their six wins, they averaged 40.7 points per game.
In their seven losses, they averaged 17.1 points per game.

That’s not competitive inconsistency. That’s a coaching staff that has no answers when opponents make adjustments.

The Roster Explosion That Screams Panic

You want to know how desperate Beck’s situation really is?

He brought in 61 new players for 2025.

Read that again: Sixty-one. New. Players.

That’s not roster management—that’s roster panic.

When a coach replaces more than half his team after two seasons, it means one of two things:

  1. The previous players couldn’t execute his system
  2. His system doesn’t work with college players

Either way, it’s an admission that what he’s been doing isn’t working.

The Quarterback Nightmare That Nobody Mentions

Here’s the part that should scare Coastal fans the most: Beck has no idea who his quarterback is.

2024 starter Ethan Vasko’s numbers:

  • 2,120 passing yards
  • 14 TDs, 8 INTs
  • 54.6% completion rate

Those aren’t terrible numbers. But Vasko’s not on the 2025 roster.

Current options for 2025:

  • Tad Hudson: 1 start in 2024 (173 yards, 65.4% completion)
  • Multiple transfers with zero starting experience
  • Freshmen who’ve never seen college defenses

Beck is entering Year 3 with a quarterback room full of question marks. That’s not building a program—that’s gambling with one.

The Schedule Reality That Changes Everything

Want to know when Beck’s seat goes from warm to molten? Look at the 2025 schedule:

Season opener: @ Virginia (ACC)

Let me paint you a picture: You have 61 new players learning new systems, an unproven quarterback, and you’re starting the season on the road against a Power 5 opponent.

Additional Power 5 test: @ South Carolina (SEC)

If Coastal gets blown out in both games—and based on their 2024 bowl performance, that’s likely—the “Tim Beck experiment” narrative shifts to “Tim Beck failure” overnight.

Key Sun Belt games:

  • @ Old Dominion
  • @ Appalachian State
  • vs James Madison
  • vs Georgia State

Bowl eligibility requires 6 wins. I count maybe 4-5 realistic victories on this schedule, and that assumes everything goes perfectly.

The Million-Dollar Question Nobody’s Asking

Here’s my favorite part of this whole situation.

Coastal Carolina is paying Tim Beck $1.05 million annually to deliver results that are trending downward from his predecessor’s peak.

Chadwell’s final three seasons: 31-6 (.838 winning percentage)
Beck’s first two seasons: 14-12 (.538 winning percentage)

You’re paying premium money for a 300-point worse performance. That’s not value—that’s institutional malpractice.

The Defensive Coordinator Shuffle That Reveals Desperation

Beck fired his defensive coordinator after 2024 and hired Jeremiah Johnson from Louisiana Tech.

On paper, this looks smart. Johnson’s 2024 La Tech defense ranked 12th nationally in total defense.

But here’s what they won’t tell you: When coaches start firing coordinators after two seasons, it usually means they’re running out of scapegoats before the administration starts looking at them.

The Truth About Following Legends

You know what’s brutal about college football?

Programs hire coaches to maintain previous success, then act surprised when maintaining success proves harder than creating it.

Chadwell built Coastal Carolina’s identity from scratch. He had complete buy-in because players knew he was building something special.

Beck inherited that identity and is now trying to rebuild it with 61 new players who never experienced the original magic.

That’s not maintaining excellence—that’s starting over while everyone expects you to pick up where someone else left off.

The Prediction Nobody’s Making

Here’s what’s going to happen, and you can bookmark this prediction:

Early season (0-2 start likely): Virginia and potentially another opponent expose the roster turnover. Beck starts making excuses about “building culture” and “installing systems.”

Mid-season crisis: Local media starts asking questions about the direction of the program. The 61 new players struggle with consistency and execution.

Late-season reckoning: Coastal misses bowl eligibility for the first time since 2018. Administration starts “evaluating the program’s direction.”

By December, Tim Beck will be updating his resume.

The Hot Seat Rating That Tells the Real Story

Here’s the thing about hot seat pressure: It’s not always about obvious failure.

Sometimes it’s about expensive coaches delivering cheaper results while everyone pretends the trajectory isn’t obvious.

Beck isn’t failing spectacularly enough to generate headlines. He’s failing quietly, expensively, and in ways that make success feel perpetually just out of reach.

Chadwell made Coastal Carolina nationally relevant.

Beck is making them regionally mediocre.

The million-dollar question: How long does a program wait for someone to recapture magic they didn’t create?

The Bottom Line

While everyone watches the obvious hot seats at major programs, the most expensive coaching mistake in the Sun Belt is happening in plain sight.

Tim Beck isn’t the worst coach in college football. He’s something worse—he’s the coach who followed greatness and made it look easy.

61 new players won’t fix scheme problems.

Firing coordinators won’t fix leadership issues.

Paying coaches more won’t fix cultural decline.

Mark this prediction: By next December, Coastal Carolina will be looking for their fifth head coach in program history.

The only question is whether they’ll act fast enough to prevent the program from sliding back into complete irrelevance.

Hot Seat Temperature: Expensive and rising. When you’re paying million-dollar salaries for declining results, patience runs out faster than people expect.

Want to know which other “under the radar” coaches are about to be on the hot seat?

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The Hottest Coaching Seat in College Football Is Hiding in Plain Sight

Mark Haines on August 5, 2025

While everyone obsesses over Lincoln Riley and other big-name coaches, the most dangerous hot seat in America belongs to a guy most fans have never heard of.

His name is Ricky Rahne. He coaches at Old Dominion. And he’s about to become the first major firing of the 2025 season.

Here’s why nobody sees it coming.

The Trucking Company Problem That Started Everything

When people hear “Old Dominion,” they think of shipping trucks, not football helmets.

That’s not a joke—that’s the exact problem Rahne was hired to solve in 2020.

ODU’s mandate was crystal clear: Raise the profile of Old Dominion University so it’s better recognized than the freight company with the same name. Make people think “football program” before “logistics company.”

Four years later, Reddit threads still joke about thinking of trucking more than touchdowns when they hear “Old Dominion.”

Mission failed.

The Pattern That Reveals Everything

Here’s what makes Rahne’s situation so dangerous: He’s not obviously terrible.

His 2024 season looked respectable on paper:

  • 5-7 record
  • Led the nation in red zone offense (95%)
  • 14th nationally in rushing offense
  • Sophomore quarterback showing promise

But dig deeper into those losses:

  • Coastal Carolina: Lost 45-37
  • Marshall: Lost 42-35
  • James Madison: Lost 35-32

See the pattern? Rahne consistently puts his team in a position to win, then finds creative ways to lose.

That’s not bad luck. That’s a coaching problem.

The Close-Loss Curse That’s Worse Than Blowouts

You know what’s more damaging than getting blown out? Losing winnable games.

When you get destroyed 45-10, everyone understands you’re rebuilding. When you lose 35-32, it means you had the talent to win but couldn’t execute when it mattered.

Rahne’s entire tenure reads like a masterclass in snatching defeat from the jaws of victory:

2024 specifics that hurt:

  • Turnover margin: -3 (gave away 20, took 17)
  • Record in one-score games: Consistently poor
  • Fourth quarter collapses: Multiple instances

The quarterback numbers tell the story: Colton Joseph threw for 1,627 yards with 11 TDs and 647 rushing yards with 11 rushing TDs. Those are impressive numbers. But he completed just 59.9% of his passes with 5 interceptions.

Translation: Talented enough to make plays, not refined enough to avoid mistakes when pressure mounts.

The 2025 Schedule That Will Expose Everything

If you want to know why Rahne’s seat is about to catch fire, look at how 2025 starts:

September schedule:

  • @ Indiana (Big Ten)
  • vs N.C. Central
  • @ Virginia Tech (ACC)

Let me paint you a picture: You have an inexperienced receiving corps (losing 1,342 receiving yards from departures), an unproven secondary (three leading interceptors graduated), and a pattern of fourth-quarter mistakes.

Now you’re asking this team to open at Indiana and travel to Virginia Tech in the first three weeks.

If ODU starts 0-2 with blowout losses, Rahne goes from “under the radar” to “trending on Twitter” overnight.

The Roster Disaster Nobody’s Discussing

Want to know how bad ODU’s talent drain is?

Key departures after 2024:

  • Aaron Young: 887 rushing yards, 8 TDs
  • Isiah Paige: 819 receiving yards
  • Pat Conroy: 523 receiving yards, 5 TDs

Combined production lost: 2,229 yards and 16 touchdowns

Key returning players with significant experience:

  • Devin Roche: 43 carries, 274 yards
  • Na’eem Abdul-Rahim Gladding: 2 catches, 18 yards

Combined returning production: 292 yards

They’re replacing 2,229 yards of offense with players who produced 292 yards. That’s not roster turnover—that’s roster evaporation.

The Defensive Time Bomb Nobody Mentions

Everyone focuses on ODU’s offensive losses, but the defensive departures might be worse.

Gone: Jahron Manning, Angelo Rankin Jr., and Will Jones II—the three players who led the team with 3 interceptions each.

Remaining secondary experience: Largely unproven at FBS level.

2024 defensive numbers:

  • 410.4 yards allowed per game
  • 237.8 passing yards allowed per game
  • Already struggled against the pass with experienced players

Now they’re asking completely new faces to cover receivers in hostile environments at Indiana and Virginia Tech.

This is a recipe for explosive plays and blown coverages that will make highlight reels for all the wrong reasons.

The Sun Belt Reality That Changes Everything

Here’s why Rahne’s situation is more precarious than coaches in power conferences: There are no excuses in the Sun Belt.

You can’t blame recruiting disadvantages when you’re competing against similar programs. You can’t claim schedule strength when conference opponents have comparable resources.

2024 Sun Belt Conference record: 4-4
Bowl record under Rahne: 0-2

Translation: He can’t dominate his peer group, and he can’t win when it matters most.

In a weak conference, mediocrity stands out like a beacon. When James Madison and other Sun Belt programs are making noise nationally, ODU’s invisibility becomes more glaring.

The Prediction Nobody’s Making

Here’s what’s going to happen, and you can bookmark this:

Early season (0-3 or 1-2 start): Indiana and Virginia Tech expose the inexperienced skill players. The secondary gives up multiple explosive plays. Joseph forces throws, trying to keep pace.

Mid-season crisis: Local media starts asking questions about Rahne’s job security. National outlets pick up the story because it’s a straightforward narrative about a coach nobody was watching.

November reckoning: ODU administration realizes four years of “almost good enough” hasn’t moved the needle on national recognition. They pull the trigger to salvage recruiting.

By Halloween, Ricky Rahne will be at the top of every coaching hot seat ranking in America.

The Hot Seat Rating That Tells the Real Story

My proprietary analysis gives Rahne a 1.000 hot seat rating against weak competition over four years.

Translation: He’s perfectly meeting lowered expectations.

But here’s the problem—meeting lowered expectations isn’t success when your original mandate was to raise the program’s profile nationally.

ODU didn’t hire Rahne to go 5-7 and lose close games. They hired him to put Old Dominion football on the map.

Four years later, people still think of freight trucks before football when they hear the name.

The Bottom Line

While everyone watches the obvious hot seats at major programs, the most dangerous coaching situation in college football is flying completely under the radar.

Ricky Rahne isn’t failing spectacularly enough to generate headlines. He’s failing quietly, consistently, and in ways that make victory feel perpetually just out of reach.

The trucking company is still more famous than the football team.

The close losses keep piling up.

The roster talent is evaporating.

The schedule is about to expose every weakness.

Mark this prediction: By November, “Ricky Rahne” will be trending for all the wrong reasons. The hottest seat nobody was watching will suddenly become the firing that everyone saw coming.

The only question is whether ODU’s administration will act fast enough to salvage the 2026 recruiting class, or if they’ll wait until the program’s shortcomings become apparent for all the wrong reasons.

Hot Seat Temperature: Volcanic and rising, but nobody’s watching the eruption build.

Want to know which other “under the radar” coaches are about to be on the hot seat?

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Bob Chesney’s James Madison Experiment Is About To Get Very Real

Mark Haines on August 4, 2025

Most first-year coaching hires crash and burn within 24 months.

Bob Chesney’s .912 hot seat rating after Year One suggests he might be different. The former Holy Cross coach took James Madison from transition chaos to 9 wins and a bowl victory in 12 months. But here’s what nobody wants to admit: Year Two is when the real coaching begins.

The Numbers Don’t Lie About Chesney’s Instant Impact

Chesney inherited a program in flux and immediately delivered results that veteran FBS coaches spend years trying to achieve:

  • 407.6 yards per game on offense
  • 33.3 points scored per contest
  • 321.8 yards allowed defensively
  • 20.5 points surrendered per game
  • 9-4 overall record with a bowl victory

These aren’t empty statistics padded against weak competition. This represents systematic excellence across 13 games against Sun Belt opponents who had zero respect for a Holy Cross coordinator learning on the job.

The Offensive Balance That Separates Good Coaches From Great Ones

Chesney’s attack showcased the kind of dual-threat capability that keeps defensive coordinators awake at night.

The passing game generated 216.1 yards per contest with quarterback Alonza Barnett III throwing for 2,598 yards and 26 touchdowns. Meanwhile, the ground attack churned out 191.5 rushing yards per game behind a three-headed monster that created matchup nightmares:

  • George Pettaway: 980 yards, 6.0 yards per carry
  • Wayne Knight: 449 yards, 5.8 yards per attempt
  • Barnett III: 442 yards, 7 rushing touchdowns

This isn’t luck or inherited talent producing results.

The Defensive Transformation Nobody Saw Coming

Defense wins championships, and Chesney’s unit delivered championship-level performance immediately.

James Madison allowed just 115.4 rushing yards per game on 3.5 yards per carry. The pass rush generated 41 sacks while the secondary picked off 17 passes. Individual performances reflected the culture Chesney built from day one:

  • Eric O’Neill: 13 sacks, 1 interception return for touchdown
  • Terrence Spence: 5 interceptions, 1 returned for a score
  • Jacob Dobbs: 74 tackles despite missing games

But Here’s The Problem With First-Year Success Stories

College football history is littered with coaches who engineered impressive debut seasons only to collapse when opponents developed better game plans.

The difference between one-year wonders and sustained excellence lies in adaptability. Can Chesney evolve his schemes when opposing coordinators spend entire offseasons studying his tendencies? Will his recruiting relationships prove strong enough to reload talent when players graduate or transfer?

The Transfer Portal Test That Reveals Coaching Sophistication

Chesney’s offseason roster management provides the first glimpse into his strategic thinking.

Rather than panic about departures, he targeted specific needs with surgical precision. Quarterback Matthew Sluka brings experience behind Barnett. Wide receiver Isaiah Alston helps replace graduated targets Omarion Dollison and Taylor Thompson, who combined for 1,081 receiving yards and 12 touchdowns.

More importantly, Chesney retained his rushing attack’s core. Pettaway, Knight, and Jobi Malary all return, providing offensive consistency that first-year coaches rarely enjoy.

The Schedule Reality Check That Will Define Everything

Year Two brings a brutal test of Chesney’s tactical development.

Road games at Louisville and Liberty represent massive step-ups from 2024’s competition level. Home contests against Appalachian State and Georgia Southern feature established coaching staffs with proven Sun Belt success. Washington State’s addition brings Pac-12 talent to Harrisonburg.

These games matter because they remove the “weak competition” qualifier from Chesney’s hot seat rating.

The Sustainability Question That Haunts Every Coaching Success

Chesney’s .912 rating reflects exceptional first-year performance, but sustaining excellence demands different skills than creating it.

The foundation exists through balanced offensive production, stifling defensive improvement, and tactical sophistication that translates into tangible results. The 27-17 Boca Raton Bowl victory over Western Kentucky provided the capstone moment, demonstrating game-planning abilities that justify every bit of optimism surrounding his hire.

The Bottom Line: Validation Season Starts Now

Bob Chesney exceeded every reasonable expectation in Year One.

Year Two determines whether he represents James Madison’s long-term solution or simply benefited from perfect timing and favorable circumstances. His .912 hot seat rating provides breathing room most coaches never enjoy, but sustained success requires proving excellence was no accident.

The real measure of Chesney’s coaching ability begins when 2025 games start counting.

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How I Watched ‘Clueless Clay’ Fool Georgia Southern Into Overpaying for Mediocrity

Mark Haines on July 31, 2025

Clay Helton just got paid like a winner after three straight losing seasons at Georgia Southern.

The Contract That Defies Logic

Georgia Southern rewarded their 20-19 coach with a five-year extension worth $1 million annually through 2029.

The math doesn’t add up:

  • Three consecutive 6-7, 6-7, 8-5 seasons
  • Three bowl game losses in three appearances
  • A .513 winning percentage over 39 games
  • A hot seat rating of .859 against weak competition

Yet somehow, this earned Helton a raise from $805,000 to seven figures annually.

The USC Mirage That Fooled Georgia Southern

Helton’s resume looked impressive on paper, which explains why Eagles fans were excited about the hire.

At USC, he went 46-24 overall and won big games with other coaches’ recruits:

  • Rose Bowl victory over Penn State following the 2016 season
  • Pac-12 championship in 2017
  • Multiple wins over ranked opponents
  • Three conference championship game appearances

But USC fans nicknamed him “Clueless Clay” because they understood the truth: Helton inherited elite recruiting classes from Lane Kiffin, Steve Sarkisian, and Ed Orgeron. When forced to recruit his talent, everything collapsed.

His actual failures included:

  • Posted USC’s first losing season (5-7) since 2000 in 2018
  • USC’s 2020 recruiting class ranked dead last in the Pac-12
  • Lost elite California prospects like Bryce Young to Alabama and DJ Uiagalelei to Clemson
  • Recruiting fell from a consistent top-5 nationally to outside the top 50
  • Fired 14 assistant coaches in constant staff turnover
  • Fan attendance plummeted as apathy set in
  • Finally fired after a 1-1 start in 2021 following a 42-28 home loss to Stanford

Trojan fans celebrated his firing. Georgia Southern fans celebrated his hiring. Only one group understood what they were getting.

Why Mediocrity Became the New Excellence

Georgia Southern hasn’t won a bowl game since 2020.

Before Helton arrived in November 2021, the Eagles had missed bowls entirely in multiple seasons since moving to FBS in 2014. Three straight postseason appearances represent progress, even if the results sting.

The institutional memory matters more than the win-loss record. Georgia Southern values stability over ceiling, consistency over championship potential.

The 2024 Numbers That Justified Everything

The Eagles finally had their breakthrough season.

Georgia Southern went 8-5 overall and 6-2 in Sun Belt play, their best record since 2020. They averaged 28.0 points per game while allowing 33.0—hardly dominant but sufficient for consistent competitiveness.

Key statistical achievements included:

  • JC French: 2,831 passing yards, 65.6% completion rate
  • Balanced receiving attack with three 590+ yard receivers
  • 21 takeaways on defense despite allowing big numbers
  • 4-2 home record, 4-2 road record

The New Orleans Bowl loss to Sam Houston (26-31) stung, but reaching three straight bowls had never happened in program history.

The Pattern Recognition Problem Nobody Wants to Discuss

Three years of data reveal troubling consistency.

Helton’s Georgia Southern tenure follows an identical script each season:

  • Start with high hopes and roster optimism
  • Compete respectably through the regular season
  • Reach a bowl game with 6-7 wins
  • Lose the postseason game convincingly
  • Celebrate the “progress” while ignoring the ceiling

His overall bowl record stands at 2-6 between USC and Georgia Southern. The pattern suggests teams that peak during the regular season but lack the extra gear required for postseason success.

The Quarterback Development Success Story

French’s emergence validates Helton’s offensive system.

The redshirt junior completed his first full season as a starter by distributing the ball effectively to Josh Dallas (614 yards, 6 TD), Dalen Cobb (599 yards, 4 TD), and Derwin Burgess Jr. (659 yards, 3 TD).

French added 239 rushing yards and accounted for 19 total touchdowns, providing the dual-threat capability that makes Helton’s offense functional against Sun Belt competition.

The Defensive Reality Check

The Eagles allowed 428.6 yards per game in 2024.

Breaking down the defensive struggles:

  • 258.6 passing yards allowed per game
  • 170.0 rushing yards allowed per game
  • 33.0 points allowed per game
  • Massive differences between home/road performance

Leading tackler Marques Watson-Trent (120 tackles) graduated, along with most of the linebacker corps. Replacing that production requires either internal development or transfer portal success, both of which are uncertain propositions.

The Schedule Reality That Changes Everything

2025 won’t provide mercy for continued development.

The non-conference slate opens with road trips to Fresno State (August 30) and USC (September 6). These aren’t developmental opportunities—they’re potential blowouts that could destroy confidence before Sun Belt play begins.

Conference games include dangerous road trips to James Madison and Appalachian State, traditional powers with more resources and recent success.

Bowl eligibility requires six wins, a target that appeared routine after 8-5 but remains challenging given roster turnover and schedule difficulty.

The Coaching Reality Check Nobody Discusses

Helton’s actual coaching ability remains questionable.

At USC, he inherited talent recruited by previous coaches—Lane Kiffin, Steve Sarkisian, and Ed Orgeron did the heavy lifting on roster construction. When forced to recruit his players, the program collapsed.

The pattern at Georgia Southern suggests similar limitations. His teams consistently compete but rarely dominate. They reach bowls but lose them. The 20-19 overall record reflects adequate program management rather than exceptional coaching ability.

But here’s the key difference: Georgia Southern’s expectations align with Helton’s ceiling. USC demanded national championships. Georgia Southern celebrates bowl appearances.

The Million-Dollar Investment That Changed the Conversation

The contract extension indicates administrative satisfaction with baseline competency.

Georgia Southern’s athletic department believes in gradual improvement over dramatic change. The deal creates pressure to achieve more than adequacy, particularly given the salary increase and length of commitment.

The financial commitment suggests institutional patience and long-term thinking rather than championship expectations.

The Hot Seat Temperature: Artificially Cooled

Helton’s .859 rating reflects the gap between external expectations and internal reality.

The “weak competition” qualifier suggests that even modest goals require maximum effort to achieve. But context matters more than perception for program evaluation.

Georgia Southern’s recent history includes multiple coaching changes, inconsistent recruiting, and declining fan interest. Helton has stabilized the program while establishing baseline competency.

The 2025 Verdict: Prove the Investment or Accept the Ceiling

Year four becomes crucial for demonstrating that stability translates to sustainable success.

French returns at quarterback with most receiving targets intact. The secondary offers experience through Chance Gamble (48 tackles, 3 INT) and Tracy Hill Jr. (36 tackles, 2 INT).

Success requires bowl eligibility plus competitive games against quality opponents. Helton needs to prove Georgia Southern can win games it’s supposed to win while occasionally stealing victories against superior competition.

The contract extension provides job security but increases performance expectations.

The Bottom Line: Mediocrity Never Felt So Expensive

Clay Helton’s job security isn’t in question—his ceiling is.

Georgia Southern invested in stability over potential upheaval. Whether that represents appropriate expectations or limited ambition depends on maximizing returning talent and roster improvements.

The foundation exists for the program’s best season under Helton, but the schedule demands more than hoping for adequacy.

Hot Seat Temperature: Contractually protected. The million-dollar investment changed the conversation from job security to championship expectations—a pressure Helton has never handled successfully.

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Dell McGee’s Georgia State Football Nightmare Is Just Beginning

Mark Haines on July 31, 2025

Dell McGee’s first season at Georgia State ended exactly how everyone feared it would.

The former Georgia running backs coach—who helped develop Nick Chubb, Sony Michel, and D’Andre Swift into NFL stars—managed just 3 wins in 12 games. His hot seat rating of .702 against weak competition tells the brutal truth: even lowered expectations proved too high.

But the real nightmare isn’t what happened in 2024.

It’s what’s coming in 2025.

The 3-9 Disaster That Nobody Saw Coming (Except Everyone Did)

McGee inherited a Georgia State program that won 7 games and a bowl in 2023 under Shawn Elliott.

Twelve months later, the Panthers managed wins against:

  • Chattanooga (24-21)
  • Vanderbilt (36-32)
  • Texas State (52-44)

That’s it.

The offensive numbers expose the systematic failure. Georgia State averaged 23.7 points per game—exactly matching the 23.7 points they surrendered on defense. This wasn’t a team learning a new system. This was a program drowning in mediocrity.

The tale of two seasons lived within individual games.

In victories, McGee’s offense exploded for 440.3 yards per game with 176.3 rushing yards. In losses, those numbers collapsed to 371.9 total yards and a pathetic 118.9 rushing yards per game.

For a coach whose specialty was developing elite ground games, watching his rushing attack average 4.4 yards per carry had to be torture.

The Position Coach Paradox That’s Destroying Everything

Here’s the uncomfortable truth about Dell McGee: his resume creates impossible expectations.

Eight seasons at Georgia. Back-to-back national championships. 56 NFL draft picks developed, including 15 first-rounders. National Recruiter of the Year in 2018.

Yet his Georgia State debut featured:

  • A quarterback (Christian Veilleux) with 11 interceptions against 13 touchdowns
  • A defense surrendering 6.2 yards per play
  • A rushing offense that managed just 133.3 yards per game

The cruelest reality in college football is that excellence doesn’t transfer between roles.

McGee spent decades perfecting individual player development. Running backs coach. Recruiting specialist. Position-specific guru.

Head coaching demands something entirely different—program architecture, culture building, staff management, game-day decision making.

The disconnect shows up everywhere. McGee’s Georgia offenses operated with surgical precision. His Georgia State offense completed 60.4% of passes while turning the ball over 1.6 times per game.

The 68-Player Roster Explosion That Could Backfire Spectacularly

McGee’s response to 2024’s failure? Blow up the entire roster.

Georgia State brought in 68 new players for 2025:

  • 33 true freshmen
  • Multiple FBS transfers
  • Power Five running backs Rashod Amos (Ole Miss), Djay Braswell (South Carolina), Branson Robinson (Georgia)
  • Wide receiver Leo Blackburn from Georgia Tech
  • Four-star defensive tackle Jartavius Flounoy

This represents more than 60% roster turnover—the college football equivalent of burning down the house to kill a spider.

The recruiting class ranks as Georgia State’s best in program history and tops in the Sun Belt according to 247Sports. On paper, it solves every problem that plagued 2024.

But here’s what nobody wants to admit: chemistry matters more than talent.

Team cohesion doesn’t develop overnight. When three-quarters of your roster is new, you’re essentially coaching a completely different team. New problems emerge even as old ones theoretically get solved.

McGee is gambling his career on unproven players developing instant chemistry while learning his system.

The odds are not in his favor.

The Hue Jackson Hire That Should Terrify Georgia State Fans

McGee replaced offensive coordinator Jim Chaney with former NFL head coach Hue Jackson.

On the surface, this looks smart. Jackson brings play-calling experience from both college and professional levels. He should address the offensive inconsistencies that plagued 2024.

But Hue Jackson’s history reveals a pattern of organizational destruction that should keep Georgia State administrators awake at night.

Jackson’s NFL tenure ended with a historically bad 3-36-1 record with Cleveland. Former quarterback Baker Mayfield called Jackson “fake” after he immediately joined division rival Cincinnati following his firing.

The pattern repeats everywhere Jackson coaches:

  • NFLs Oakland Raiders fired him in 2011 after he publicly criticized his team and defensive coordinator following a season-ending loss
  • The Cleveland Browns fired him after 2.5 seasons of historic futility
  • Grambling State fired him after just two seasons amid complaints about “lack of transparency, coordination, and collaboration.”

Jackson’s documented tendency toward organizational undermining creates a ticking time bomb within McGee’s staff.

His X’s and O’s knowledge is legitimate. His ability to function within organizational structures remains questionable.

For a first-time head coach already fighting for credibility, bringing in a coordinator with Jackson’s baggage represents either desperation or poor judgment.

The Schedule From Hell That Will Expose Every Weakness

The 2025 schedule offers zero mercy for a program attempting massive reconstruction.

Non-conference games include:

  • At Ole Miss (August 30)
  • Memphis (September 6)
  • At Vanderbilt (September 20)

These aren’t tune-up games—they’re potential blowouts that could destroy confidence before Sun Belt play begins.

The conference schedule presents additional nightmares. James Madison, Appalachian State, and Georgia Southern all possess the talent to embarrass Georgia State if the roster overhaul fails to gel quickly.

McGee’s 1-7 Sun Belt record in 2024 demands immediate improvement. The roster upheaval creates uncertainty about whether improvement is even possible.

Bowl eligibility requires six wins. Based on the current trajectory, that target appears optimistic rather than achievable.

The Hot Seat Mathematics That Don’t Add Up

Dell McGee’s .702 Hot Seat Rating reflects a harsh reality: even modest expectations exceeded actual performance.

The “weak competition” qualifier stings because it suggests Georgia State couldn’t meet diminished standards. When your floor becomes your ceiling, the trajectory points in only one direction.

The financial commitment suggests institutional patience, but college football rarely affords extended timelines.

McGee signed a five-year deal worth approximately $850,000 annually. That investment should provide job security.

But Georgia State’s overall program record of 54-92 across 12 seasons creates fan apathy that demands a dramatic reversal rather than gradual improvement.

Year two becomes crucial for demonstrating that 2024’s struggles represented growing pains rather than fundamental limitations.

The Uncomfortable Truth Nobody Wants to Acknowledge

McGee’s situation exposes college football’s cruelest contradiction.

Fans and administrators expect immediate improvement while simultaneously understanding that roster reconstruction takes time. This creates impossible expectations that doom coaches before systems fully develop.

The hot seat rating reflects broader impatience with Georgia State football’s entire existence.

The program has never achieved sustained success. Four different head coaches. Multiple conference changes. A fanbase that’s watched 12 years of mostly mediocre football.

McGee inherited not just personnel problems but cultural ones. He needs to simultaneously rebuild the roster and manage expectations in a market that’s already given up on the program.

Success in 2025 depends less on McGee’s coaching ability than on his capacity to manage a program undergoing complete identity transformation.

The massive roster turnover represents both opportunity and vulnerability. Potential solutions that could easily become new problems if chemistry and execution falter.

Dell McGee’s future hinges on proving that elite position coaching translates to program leadership.

The early evidence remains incomplete, but the hot seat temperature continues rising with each passing month.

Year two will determine whether Dell McGee represents Georgia State’s future or merely another transition point in the program’s ongoing search for something it has never actually achieved: sustained success.

The nightmare is just beginning.

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The Parker Paradox: Why Troy Football’s $900K Gamble Is Already Backfiring

Mark Haines on July 31, 2025

Gerad Parker’s hot seat rating of .613 tells you everything you need to know about Troy football’s desperate situation.

The Million-Dollar Question Nobody’s Asking

Why did Troy pay $900,000 annually for a coordinator who had never proven he could build a program?

Parker’s resume looks impressive on paper:

  • Notre Dame offensive coordinator (2023): 39.1 points per game, 8th nationally
  • West Virginia offensive coordinator (2020-21)
  • Penn State passing game coordinator (2019)
  • Previous head coaching experience: 0-6 as Purdue’s interim coach in 2016

That last bullet point should have been a red flag the size of Alabama.

The Inheritance Trap

Parker walked into what appeared to be a goldmine.

Jon Sumrall left him with explosive talent across the roster:

  • Devonte Ross finished with 1,043 yards and 11 touchdowns as the Sun Belt’s most dangerous receiver
  • Damien Taylor had just rushed for 1,010 yards
  • The offensive line had protected championship-level quarterbacks for two straight conference titles

But the highlight reels didn’t show the real story.

The Hidden Reality

Troy had just 12 players in their final year of eligibility – the fewest in the country.

The roster turnover told a different story:

  • Forty-six scholarship newcomers joined the roster, ranking third-most nationally
  • Only four players who started six or more games the previous season returned
  • The transfer portal had gutted the program’s experience while maintaining the illusion of talent

Parker inherited the appearance of experience, not the reality of it.

When Offensive Genius Meets Defensive Reality

The 2024 numbers expose the gap between reputation and results.

Offensive performance showed flashes but lacked consistency:

  • 369.2 yards per game
  • 26.0 points per game
  • 49.7% third-down conversion rate
  • 94.6% red zone scoring rate

Defensive struggles told a different story:

  • 28.4 points allowed per game
  • 366.9 yards allowed per game
  • Negative-four turnover margin
  • 58.8 penalty yards per game

These statistics reveal a program searching for identity.

The November Mirage

Troy’s late-season surge deserves context, not celebration.

In November, the Trojans went 3-1 and averaged 449.8 yards per game with 224 rushing yards per contest. They demolished Southern Miss 52-20 in their finale. Headlines proclaimed they were “turning the corner” and “finding their identity.” But look at who they beat:

  • Coastal Carolina (5-7 final record)
  • Georgia Southern (8-4)
  • Southern Miss (1-11)

When the games mattered earlier in the season, Parker’s offense struggled against quality competition.

The Transfer Portal Gamble

Parker’s response to Year One has been an aggressive roster overhaul.

Key departures include the program’s best players:

  • Devonte Ross (1,043 receiving yards, 12 total TDs)
  • Damien Taylor (1,010 rushing yards)
  • Matthew Caldwell and Will Crowder (starting quarterbacks)

Portal additions bring experience, but unknown chemistry:

  • David Daniel-Sisavanh (S, Vanderbilt)
  • Garner Langlo (OL, App State/Auburn)
  • Trey Cooley (RB, Georgia Tech)
  • Seven additional transfers

This isn’t roster management – it’s roster panic.

The Recruiting Silver Lining

Parker’s 2025 recruiting class provides the only genuine bright spot.

Ranked 72nd nationally by On3 with an 84.76 score, it represents Troy’s best recruiting class in program history. Landing the Sun Belt’s top class despite being hired weeks before National Signing Day demonstrates Parker’s ability to sell a vision. The class includes talent across multiple positions with several three-star prospects.

Whether he can coach this talent remains another question entirely.

The Schedule Reality Check

2025 won’t provide mercy for Parker’s learning curve.

Brutal early tests await the inexperienced roster:

  • Road trip to Clemson (September 6)
  • Memphis at home (September 13)
  • Trip to Buffalo (September 20)

Sun Belt schedule includes dangerous opponents:

  • Louisiana visits Troy
  • Road trip to Texas State
  • Arkansas State comes to town

Every game becomes a referendum on Parker’s progress.

The Quarterback Nightmare

Parker enters Year Two without a proven starter under center.

The competition features question marks at every turn:

  • Tucker Kilcrease saw limited 2024 action
  • Goose Crowder missed most of 2024 with injury
  • Transfer additions bring unknown quantities
  • Incoming freshman Jack James lacks college experience

Parker’s offensive system demands precision and experience that none of these options have demonstrated.

The Cultural Problem Nobody Mentions

Championship programs don’t celebrate moral victories.

“The first thing I’m most proud of is our current roster,” Parker said after the season. “It’s been impressive the belief this team has in each other.” This sounds like a coach trying to convince himself as much as his audience. Neal Brown and Jon Sumrall built Troy’s reputation on toughness and execution. Parker’s team looked fragile early, prone to mistakes, and easily rattled by adversity.

Belief doesn’t win games – performance does.

The Infrastructure Investment

Troy’s administration is betting heavily on Parker’s potential.

The $11.6 million indoor practice facility, beginning construction in January, represents a significant institutional commitment. Combined with Parker’s $900,000 annual salary, Troy has invested serious resources in this experiment. Modern facilities attract recruits and demonstrate program commitment.

But facilities don’t coach games, and recruiting rankings don’t make tackles.

The Bottom Line: Year Two Decides Everything

Parker’s .613 hot seat rating reflects a harsh truth about modern college football.

Programs don’t provide patience for proven coordinators learning on the job. His six-game stint as Purdue’s interim coach (0-6 record) provides the only previous evidence of his head coaching ability. The November surge bought Parker time, but it didn’t buy him credibility. Year Two demands tangible improvement:

  • Bowl game appearance minimum
  • Competitive games against quality opponents
  • Evidence that the culture matches the talent

Troy fans deserve championships, not moral victories.

Hot Seat Temperature: Warming rapidly. One more disappointing season, and Parker’s $900K investment becomes Troy’s most expensive mistake.

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Blog Article

New Mexico Football 2025 Season Preview: Jason Eck’s Zero-Point Rebuild

Mark Haines on July 28, 2025

Jason Eck inherits a New Mexico Football program that generated 33.5 points per game but surrendered 41.0, creating the classic high-floor, low-ceiling scenario that defines coaching transitions.

With a hot seat rating of 0 as a brand-new coach, Eck has maximum runway but faces the psychological reality that New Mexico fans have been conditioned to expect disappointment after decades of false starts. The numbers tell a story of offensive competence masking defensive futility. At the same time, the deeper challenge involves rebuilding confidence in a program that has systematically trained its supporters to expect coaching turnover.

What Eck Inherited: The Foundation

The numbers reveal a more nuanced reality than a simple 5-7 record suggests.

New Mexico’s 2024 season ended with a 3-4 Mountain West record, but those numbers obscure genuine offensive competence. The Lobos generated impressive production:

  • 484.3 yards per game (230.7 passing, 253.6 rushing)
  • 402 total points across 12 games
  • 6.8 yards per carry as a team
  • 37 rushing touchdowns

The offensive foundation centers around dual-threat quarterback Devin Dampier, who started all 12 games and accounted for 2,768 passing yards with 12 touchdowns against 12 interceptions while adding 1,166 rushing yards at 7.5 yards per carry with 19 rushing touchdowns. Running back Eli Sanders contributed 1,063 yards at 7.2 yards per carry with nine touchdowns.

However, here’s where reality sets in: they allowed 492 points, resulting in a -7.5 points per game margin.

The Defensive Disaster That Explains Everything

New Mexico’s defense was historically bad in ways that numbers can’t fully capture.

The unit surrendered 279.2 passing yards per game at a 64.6% completion rate while generating only three team interceptions all season. They gave up 2.5 passing touchdowns per game and managed just 10 total takeaways against 19 offensive turnovers, creating a minus-0.8 turnover margin per game.

This isn’t just bad defense – it’s program-killing defense that turns every game into a shootout where you need 40+ points just to have a chance.

Why The Previous Coach Succeeded (And Still Left)

Understanding Eck’s situation requires examining why Bronco Mendenhall lasted exactly one season despite showing genuine progress.

Mendenhall’s departure to Utah State wasn’t about performance failure. The 38-35 win over ranked Washington State was New Mexico’s signature victory in years, and the team was building momentum. Mendenhall left for proximity to family and the gravitational pull of coaching in Utah, where his mother lives and multiple adult children attend BYU.

This creates a fascinating paradox for Eck:

  • He inherits positive momentum without disaster-cleanup baggage
  • Players respected Mendenhall and saw tangible progress
  • Fans are skeptical because they’ve been trained to expect coaching turnover
  • Every setback gets magnified, and every positive development gets viewed suspiciously

The program is seeking its third head coach in three years, creating an environment where institutional memory conditions expectations toward failure.

Eck’s Track Record: Why This Hire Makes Sense

Eck’s credentials come from three seasons transforming Idaho from perpetual disappointment to a consistent FCS playoff contender.

His 26-13 overall record at Idaho included three straight playoff berths, with the Vandals reaching the quarterfinals in both 2023 and 2024. The 2024 Idaho team finished 10-4, winning 10 games for the first time in 36 years.

Here’s what makes Eck’s Idaho success relevant to New Mexico:

  • Turnaround Ability: Idaho had just two winning seasons in 22 years before Eck arrived
  • Offensive Innovation: 2022 Idaho ranked 5th in FCS passing efficiency (168.1) and 13th in scoring offense (35.9 points per game)
  • Personnel Development: Quarterback Gevani McCoy won the Jerry Rice Award as FCS Freshman of the Year in 2022
  • Adaptability: In 2024, replaced starting QB and 81.5% of receiving production yet still went 10-4

Before becoming a head coach, Eck spent six seasons at South Dakota State, culminating in three years as offensive coordinator from 2019-2021. His offenses averaged 32.5 points per game, including 37.5 in his final season. In 2019, he won the American Football Coaches’ Association FCS Assistant Coach of the Year award.

The Implementation Challenge: Systems and Personnel

Eck brings offensive coordinator Luke Schleusner from Idaho to install an up-tempo spread attack with zone-read elements.

This system alignment with New Mexico’s existing personnel suggests continuity rather than wholesale philosophical change. The Lobos return several key offensive contributors:

  • Receivers Michael Buckley and Caleb Medford
  • Running back Eli Sanders
  • Kicker Luke Drzewiecki

The quarterback situation presents both a challenge and an opportunity. With Dampier’s departure to the transfer portal, Eck must identify a replacement from candidates, including James Laubstein and Jack Layne. His track record developing quarterbacks suggests competence in this critical area.

Defensively, linebacker Randolph Kpai returns after recording 80 tackles in 2024, providing leadership for what must become a dramatically improved unit.

The spring game, in which the defense defeated the offense 32-23, indicates early progress in installing a more aggressive scheme focused on creating turnovers.

Schedule Reality: Immediate Tests and Realistic Opportunities

Eck’s 2025 debut presents immediate challenges that will define early perceptions.

Opening at Michigan on August 30 against a likely top-10 team creates a no-win scenario where any competitive showing gets praised while blowout losses get rationalized. The home opener against Idaho State provides a necessary confidence-building opportunity before traveling to UCLA.

The Mountain West schedule offers realistic opportunities for bowl eligibility, but the conference’s competitive balance means margin for error remains minimal.

New Mexico’s facility investments signal institutional support but won’t immediately impact on-field performance:

  • $11 million commitment to University Stadium upgrades
  • Video board improvements starting immediately
  • Long-term facility enhancement plans

The Hot Seat Reality: Maximum Institutional Patience

With a hot seat rating of 0, Eck enjoys something previous New Mexico coaches haven’t: time.

His five-year contract starting at $1.15 million annually represents serious institutional buy-in. This financial commitment (a $775,000 raise from his Idaho salary) demonstrates that Athletic Director Fernando Lovo understands that sustainable success requires stability and competitive compensation.

The contract structure, with annual escalations of $50,000, means Eck will become the highest-paid coach in school history by year three, provided he survives that long.

This investment level suggests the administration finally understands that coaching carousels kill programs.

The Expectation Paradox: Progress vs. Patience

Eck faces a unique challenge that most new coaches don’t encounter.

He’s replacing a coach who was making progress but left for personal reasons, rather than due to performance failures. This creates unrealistic expectations, where fans expect the continuation of Mendenhall’s positive trajectory without acknowledging that coaching transitions inevitably involve a Year-One regression.

New Mexico football has conditioned its fan base to expect disappointment. Even when things appear promising (like the Washington State victory), there’s an underlying assumption that disappointment is coming.

Eck must not only improve on-field performance but also rebuild psychological confidence in the program’s direction.

Why This Time Feels Different

Jason Eck represents New Mexico’s best coaching hire in years, bringing proven turnaround credentials and offensive expertise to a program with existing foundational pieces.

His FCS success translates directly to the Mountain West level, where program-building skills matter more than recruiting stars. The 2025 season will likely show growing pains as Eck implements his systems and develops quarterback play, but the offensive infrastructure suggests competitiveness.

Bowl eligibility remains achievable if the defense shows even modest improvement from its disastrous 2024 performance.

Success at New Mexico isn’t about immediate championships – it’s about building sustainable competitiveness and ending the cycle of coaching turnover that has plagued the program. By those measures, Eck’s appointment represents the program’s best opportunity for stability since Rocky Long’s tenure in the early 2000s.

The question isn’t whether Eck can coach; his Idaho record proves competence.

The question is whether New Mexico can finally provide the institutional support and patience necessary for sustained success. Early signs suggest that yes, 2025 will be a legitimate reset year, rather than another false start.

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