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The Bush Push Was 20 Years Ago. USC Is Due For Another Heartbreaker At Notre Dame—Except This Time, The Trojans Are On The Wrong End: 30-27

Mark Haines on October 14, 2025

USC rolls into South Bend with a 5-1 record, flashy offensive numbers, and a quarterback playing out of his mind.

Notre Dame sits at 4-2, licking their wounds from two heartbreaking losses to start the season. On paper, this looks like a coin flip. But here’s what everyone is missing: USC’s offensive explosion is a mirage—and Notre Dame’s elite defensive line is about to expose it.

Let me show you why.

The Narrative Everyone Believes

Jayden Maiava is having a Heisman-level season.

The kid leads the entire nation with a 93.5 QBR. He’s thrown for 1,852 yards through six games. His completion percentage (73.1%) is absurd. And he’s got weapons—Makai Lemon has 682 receiving yards and 6 touchdowns, Ja’Kobi Lane is averaging 17.4 yards per catch.

USC’s offense is averaging 552.3 yards per game.

Meanwhile, Notre Dame has already lost twice.

Both to ranked opponents. Both by a combined 4 points, sure—but losses are losses. So the question becomes: Can the Trojans’ explosive offense outduel Notre Dame at home?

Wrong question.

The Real Question No One Is Asking

Can USC’s inflated statistics hold up against the first legitimate defense they’ve faced all season?

Spoiler alert: They can’t.

The Truth Hidden In The Schedule

Let’s talk about USC’s competition.

Week 1: Missouri State (73-13 win)
Week 2: Georgia Southern (59-20 win)

You know what Missouri State is?

A team in its first year transitioning from FCS to FBS, ineligible for postseason play. You know what Georgia Southern is? A Sun Belt team that USC dominated by 39 points. These games are padding stats like crazy.

Remove those two cupcake games, and USC’s offense drops from 552 yards per game to roughly 430-440 against Power 4 competition.

Still good?

Sure. Elite? Not even close.

Now look at Notre Dame’s schedule:

Week 1: @ #10 Miami (Lost 24-27)
Week 2: vs #16 Texas A&M (Lost 40-41)
Every single opponent: Power 4 or better

Notre Dame opened with a potential preseason top-10 team in Miami and hosted a possible top-15 team in Texas A&M, and lost both games by a field goal and a point.

One team has been battle-tested against elite competition.

The other has been stat-padding against cupcakes. Guess which is which?

The Common Opponent Test

Both teams played Purdue.

Notre Dame beat them 56-30. USC beat them 33-17. Same opponent.

Notre Dame scored 23 more points and gained roughly 180 more yards.

When both teams faced the same level of competition, Notre Dame was significantly more dominant.

This is your canary in the coal mine.

The Matchup That Decides Everything

Forget the hype around Maiava for a second.

This game will be won or lost in the trenches, the critical battle: USC’s Offensive Line vs Notre Dame’s Defensive Line.

Here’s what you need to know:

Notre Dame’s defensive line is ranked 6th in the entire nation by Athlon Sports, featuring a deep 6-man rotation that can bring fresh pass rushers at you all game long.

Notre Dame’s run defense allows just 106.2 yards per game and 3.4 yards per carry.

That’s elite.

Now, USC’s offensive line has actually performed well this season.

They rushed for 224 yards against Michigan—the most Michigan had allowed all season. Maiava’s 93.5 QBR doesn’t happen with a terrible O-line. But here’s the thing: USC hasn’t faced a defensive front like this yet.

Not even close.

Notre Dame can throw six different elite pass rushers at you—Boubacar Traore, Bryce Young, Junior Tuihalamaka, Joshua Burnham, Jordan Botelho, Loghan Thomas.

When that rotation starts wearing down USC’s line in the third quarter, Maiava’s clean pockets disappear.

And when Maiava’s under pressure for the first time all season, Notre Dame forces 2.0 turnovers per game.

This is where the game breaks.

What Happens When USC Has The Ball

Maiava will get his yards.

The kid is too good not to. He’ll probably throw for 280-320 yards and 2-3 touchdowns. Lemon and Lane will make plays—they’re both averaging 15+ yards per catch for a reason.

But USC’s rushing attack—the thing that’s been averaging 226.5 yards per game—is about to hit a wall.

Notre Dame’s run defense will hold them to 95-125 yards, max.

Without a ground game, USC becomes one-dimensional. And one-dimensional offenses throw interceptions. Notre Dame forces 2.0 turnovers per game.

Maiava has only thrown 2 picks all season because he hasn’t faced pressure like this.

He’ll throw 1-2 more on Saturday.

USC’s projected output:

24-31 points
375-445 total yards
1-2 turnovers

What Happens When Notre Dame Has The Ball

Notre Dame isn’t flashy.

They’re averaging 465.5 yards per game with 7.2 yards per play—and every single yard has come against quality competition. They’ll run the ball 35+ times. They’ll control the clock.

They’ll pound USC’s defense into submission.

USC’s run defense is solid (allowing 108.5 yards per game), but Notre Dame’s physical, balanced attack will wear them down.

Expect 140-165 rushing yards, 260-290 passing yards, and 2-3 touchdowns.

Notre Dame’s projected output:

27-34 points
400-455 total yards
0-1 turnovers

The X-Factor Everyone Is Ignoring

Notre Dame is 0-2 against ranked opponents this season.

Both losses were heartbreakers. Both by a combined 4 points. They’re at home, they’re desperate, and they’ve been preparing for exactly this level of competition since Week 1.

And let’s not forget the history here.

Anthony Davis scored 6 touchdowns in 1972. The Bush Push in 2005—Reggie Bush helping push Matt Leinart into the end zone as time expired for a 34-31 win. This rivalry has a long history of USC breaking Notre Dame’s heart in the cruelest ways possible.

It’s been 20 years since the Bush Push, and South Bend hasn’t forgotten.

The players haven’t forgotten. Marcus Freeman hasn’t forgotten. The fans certainly haven’t forgotten.

USC?

They’re walking into the loudest stadium they’ve played in all year, against the best defense they’ve faced, with offensive stats inflated by two cupcakes. The pressure is entirely on USC to prove its stats are real.

And I don’t think they can.

The Bold Prediction

Notre Dame 30, USC 27.

Here’s how it plays out:

The first half is back-and-forth. Maiava looks great. Lemon makes a couple of explosive plays.

It’s 17-17 at halftime.

Third quarter, Notre Dame’s 6-man defensive line rotation starts to take over.

Fresh pass rushers every series. USC’s O-line tires. Maiava’s clean pocket disappears. Turnover. Notre Dame goes up 27-20.

In the fourth quarter, USC abandons the run because Notre Dame’s defense has shut it down completely.

Maiava throws for 100+ yards in the quarter, trying to catch up. Notre Dame controls the clock with their run game, bleeds time, and hangs on. USC gets the ball back with 2:00 left, drives to midfield, and the game ends on an incomplete pass.

Why I’m 65% Confident (Not Higher)

Look, Maiava is legit.

93.5 QBR doesn’t lie. The kid can play. And when you have receivers like Lemon (682 yards, 6 TDs) and Lane (313 yards) who can take any throw to the house, you’re never out of it.

One blown coverage, one big play, and USC wins.

That’s the 35% chance they pull this off.

But the other 65%?

That belongs to Notre Dame’s battle-tested defense, elite front seven, and home-field advantage against a team whose gaudy stats are about to get exposed. The Trojans’ magic number run hits a brick wall in South Bend.

And it won’t even be close by the fourth quarter.

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Week 8 — Coaches Hot Seat Rankings

Mark Haines on October 14, 2025

Three coaches were fired on Sunday.

Trent Dilfer. James Franklin. Trent Bray.

Gone.

When coaches start falling in October, everyone else feels it. The phone calls start. The quiet meetings happen. The pressure that was already there gets cranked up to a whole new level.

Here are the 10 coaches under the most pressure in college football right now:

1. Billy Napier, Florida (SEC)

Trent Dilfer got fired Sunday with a 3-4 record.

Billy Napier is 21-23 at Florida. One upset over Texas doesn’t erase years of mediocrity. The Gators are paying him $7 million to compete for bowl eligibility while Georgia and Alabama compete for championships.

That’s unacceptable at Florida.

2. Hugh Freeze, Auburn (SEC)

Hugh Freeze came to Auburn with a redemption story.

A second chance after Ole Miss. Auburn gave him big money, full control, everything he needed to compete. The pressure is mounting because it’s not working.

Right now, Auburn isn’t competing.

3. Mike Norvell, Florida State (ACC)

Florida State hasn’t won an ACC game since November 2023.

Fifteen straight conference losses. Two full seasons. Zero ACC wins.

Mike Norvell went from 13-1 ACC Champions to unwatchable in less than a year.

FSU beat Florida earlier this season, and the media acted like they were “back.” They’re not—they’re 0-2 in ACC play. Norvell has had two years to figure out how to win in the ACC.

At Florida State, that’s unacceptable.

4. Jeff Choate, Nevada (Mountain West)

Jeff Choate is 4-15 at Nevada.

What worked at Montana State isn’t translating to the FBS level. Choate talks about tough, physical football, but Nevada is getting pushed around. The problem isn’t philosophy—it’s execution.

Choate is running out of time.

5. Joe Moorhead, Akron (MAC)

Joe Moorhead is 10-33 at Akron.

Elite offensive coordinator at previous stops. Winner at Fordham. But the Zips move the ball, rack up yards, then stall in the red zone—that’s coaching.

A 10-33 record over four years tells the story.

6. Luke Fickell, Wisconsin (Big Ten)

Luke Fickell was supposed to save Wisconsin football.

Wisconsin gave him everything—big money, full control, time to install his system. The defense has regressed, the offense looks disjointed, and the Big Ten is exposing every weakness. Wisconsin fans don’t want to hear about systems—they want wins.

Fickell isn’t meeting the Wisconsin standard yet.

7. Butch Jones, Arkansas State (Sun Belt)

Butch Jones failed at Tennessee.

Now he’s failing at Arkansas State. The Red Wolves are underperforming, players aren’t buying in, and fans aren’t showing up. Arkansas State thought Jones learned from his Tennessee mistakes.

The results suggest otherwise.

8. Justin Wilcox, California (ACC)

Cal got a fresh start with the move to the ACC.

New conference. New competition. New expectations. And here’s the number that matters: 8 wins.

That’s what Justin Wilcox needs to keep his job.

Look at what’s left on the schedule:

North Carolina
At Virginia Tech
Ranked Virginia
At Louisville
At Stanford
SMU

Six games—Cal needs to win five of them.

Wilcox is supposed to be a defensive guru who maximizes limited resources. But the Bears are getting manhandled by ACC competition—the defense can’t stop anyone, the offense can’t score. The math isn’t mathing.

Cal has a new chancellor—an alum, Class of ’83.

They hired Ron Rivera, NFL veteran head coach, as General Manager overseeing the football program. ESPN’s Gameday came to Berkeley last season. Everyone saw the potential. Cal has poured money and resources into this program—and they’re expecting results.

Can Willcox get the Golden Bears to 8 regular-season wins?

9. Sonny Cumbie, Louisiana Tech (C-USA)

Sonny Cumbie was supposed to bring offensive firepower to Louisiana Tech.

The Air Raid disciple. The Texas Tech coordinator everyone wanted to hire. But coordinating and head coaching are two completely different jobs—the offense has been inconsistent, the defense worse, and the program feels directionless.

Coordinator success doesn’t automatically translate to head coaching success.

10. Derek Mason, Middle Tennessee (C-USA)

Derek Mason is 4-14 at Middle Tennessee.

He’s a defensive coach in an era where offense wins championships. Mason is building a 2005 program in 2025, and Middle Tennessee can barely crack 20 points per game. MTSU fans are asking: What exactly are we getting better at?

If the answer is “nothing,” the pressure builds.

The Bottom Line:

Three coaches got fired this week—more will follow.

Athletic directors are making calls. Boosters are applying pressure. Coaches who thought they were safe realize they’re not.

Want the full picture?

Our newsletter subscribers get exclusive analysis of coaches ranked 11-25—the ones trending in the wrong direction but not quite in crisis mode yet.

Subscribe here to get all 136 FBS rankings every week.

Because pressure is a ranking—and everyone’s being measured.

Check out the complete 136 FBS Coaches Hot Seat Rankings.

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Hugh Freeze Has 2 Games To Save His Job At Auburn. Here’s Why Saturday Night’s Matchup Against #10 Georgia At Jordan-Hare Stadium Is Game 1 Of His Final Stand

Mark Haines on October 9, 2025

7:30 PM EDT. Jordan-Hare Stadium. Lights. Chaos. Everything on the line.

This isn’t just another SEC game.

This is Hugh Freeze fighting for his job. This is Auburn desperate for relevance after back-to-back losses. This is Georgia trying to stay in the playoff hunt on the road, at night, in one of the most dangerous venues in college football.

Let me break down exactly what’s about to happen.

The Numbers Don’t Lie (But Jordan-Hare At Night Doesn’t Care)

Georgia is the better team on paper.

Georgia’s Offensive Dominance:

438.6 yards per game (96.4 more than Auburn)
34.6 points per game
Perfectly balanced: 231.8 passing, 206.8 rushing
3.2 rushing touchdowns per game
24.8 first downs per game

Auburn’s Offensive Struggles:

342.2 yards per game (bottom-tier SEC)
27.6 points per game
Anemic passing: 173.2 yards, 1.0 TD per game
Only scored 10 points at Texas A&M

Georgia should win by double digits.

But here’s what the stats don’t tell you: Auburn at night in Jordan-Hare has produced some of the most inexplicable upsets in college football history. The “Kick Six” against Alabama. Stunning wins over LSU, Georgia, and other powerhouses who had no business losing.

Strange things happen here after dark.

What To Watch: Georgia With The Ball

Can Auburn’s elite run defense hold?

This is the marquee matchup of the game. Auburn allows only 82 rushing yards per game at 2.7 yards per carry. That’s legitimately elite. But Georgia rushes for 206.8 yards per game at 4.8 yards per carry with over 3 rushing touchdowns per game.

Something’s gotta give.

If Auburn stacks the box to stop the run, Georgia will torch them through the air. If they play honestly, Georgia will run them over. There’s no good answer for Auburn’s defensive coordinator.

The balance problem Georgia creates:

Georgia doesn’t just beat you one way. They beat you every way. 231.8 passing yards per game. 206.8 rushing yards per game. Perfectly balanced, impossibly difficult to defend.

Auburn has to pick its poison.

In a night game where crowd noise makes communication difficult, Georgia’s ability to run the ball becomes even more valuable. No audibles needed. Just line up and impose your will.

Watch the first down battle:

Georgia averages 24.8 first downs per game. Long, methodical drives that keep Auburn’s defense on the field and completely gassed by the fourth quarter.

If Georgia controls the clock and sustains drives, Auburn’s offense won’t get enough possessions to keep pace. And with Auburn averaging only 27.6 points per game, they need every possession they can get.

Can Georgia handle the noise?

Here’s Georgia’s biggest weakness: 40.8 penalty yards per game. False starts. Holding calls. Drive killers.

Now put them on the road, at night, in one of the loudest stadiums in America. Communication becomes nearly impossible. The crowd will be absolutely deafening on every Georgia snap.

If Georgia beats itself with penalties, Auburn has a chance.

What To Watch: Auburn With The Ball

Can Auburn throw the football at all?

This is the existential question for Hugh Freeze’s offense.

173.2 passing yards per game. Only 1.0 passing touchdown per game. Those are borderline FCS numbers in the modern SEC. You cannot win big games with that level of offensive production.

Georgia’s pass defense allows 231.2 yards per game, which means Auburn should be able to exploit it through the air. But “should” and “can” are two very different things.

If Auburn comes out scared and conservative in the passing game, they have no chance. If Hugh Freeze opens up the playbook and takes shots downfield, they might be able to keep Georgia honest enough to run the ball effectively.

The ghost of Texas A&M:

Auburn scored 10 points at Texas A&M. Ten.

That performance haunts everything about this game. Can Auburn’s offense show up when it matters most? Or will they shrink under the pressure and the lights?

The first quarter will tell you everything you need to know.

Ball security is victory:

Auburn’s best stat: 0.2 turnovers per game. Elite ball security. Georgia commits 1.4 turnovers per game.

If Auburn takes care of the football and Georgia coughs it up twice, suddenly you’ve got short fields and momentum shifts. That’s how upsets happen.

One Auburn turnover probably ends the game. Zero Auburn turnovers gives them a legitimate puncher’s chance.

Time of possession will decide this:

Auburn averages 342.2 total yards per game. That’s not enough to win a shootout.

So they have to shorten the game. Long, grinding drives that keep the clock moving and Georgia’s explosive offense on the sideline. Lean on the run game (169 yards per game, 2.4 TDs). Control the tempo.

If Auburn gets into a track meet, they lose by three touchdowns.

Hugh Freeze’s bag of tricks:

When coaches are fighting for their jobs at home under the lights, desperation breeds creativity.

Watch for fake punts, trick plays, ultra-aggressive fourth down calls. Hugh Freeze knows conventional football won’t beat Georgia. He needs chaos, misdirection, and a little bit of magic.

At night, Jordan-Hare is the perfect stage for desperation to become brilliance.

What Each Team Brings To This Party

Georgia’s Advantages:

Superior talent across the board
Balanced, explosive offense that can beat you any way
Already won at #15 Tennessee (proven road warriors)
Playoff desperation creates focus
Better coaching, better depth, better everything

Georgia’s Vulnerabilities:

Turnover prone (1.4 per game)
Penalties on the road in hostile environments
Might overlook Auburn after beating Kentucky
Playing at the most dangerous venue in America

Auburn’s Advantages:

Home field at night (worth 10-14 points in chaos)
Elite ball security (0.2 turnovers per game)
A stout run defense that can slow Georgia down
Nothing to lose, everything to gain
Desperation creates superhuman effort

Auburn’s Vulnerabilities:

Offensive ineptitude (96.4 fewer yards per game than Georgia)
Can’t throw the football consistently
Two-game losing streak in SEC play
The talent gap is real and significant

The matchup heavily favors Georgia.

But the environment heavily favors chaos. And chaos is Auburn’s best friend.

Final Score Prediction: Georgia 31, Auburn 20

But here’s what you need to understand.

This prediction is based on logic, statistics, and talent evaluation. Georgia is the better team. They should win.

But night games at Jordan-Hare Stadium don’t follow logic.

Here’s how I see it unfolding:

First Quarter: 7-7. Auburn comes out absolutely possessed. The crowd is deafening. Georgia struggles with false starts and communication. Auburn feeds off the energy.

Second Quarter: 17-13 Georgia. Talent starts to show, but Auburn refuses to fold. A trick play or defensive turnover keeps them within striking distance. Jordan-Hare is absolutely electric at halftime.

Third Quarter: 24-20 Georgia. Back and forth. Every Georgia score gets answered. The crowd never sits down. Auburn is in this thing.

Fourth Quarter: 31-20 Georgia. Superior depth and offensive firepower finally create separation. Auburn’s limited offense can’t generate enough to keep pace over 60 minutes.

That’s the logical outcome.

But don’t be shocked if Auburn wins outright. I give them a legitimate 30-35% chance to pull the upset. That’s not “Auburn might get lucky.” That’s “Auburn has a real path to victory if a few things break their way.”

Georgia fumbles twice. Hugh Freeze calls the game of his life. The crowd forces three false starts at crucial moments. Auburn’s defense gets a pick-six.

Suddenly, it’s 27-24 Auburn with 5 minutes left, and Georgia is shell-shocked.

It can happen. It has happened. This is Jordan-Hare at night.

What This Means For Hugh Freeze

If Auburn loses 31-20:

On paper, it looks “respectable.” A competitive home loss to #10 Georgia.

But Auburn fans won’t see it that way. They’ll see an offense that still can’t score more than 20 points against quality competition. They’ll see a wasted opportunity on the biggest stage with the entire fanbase behind them.

Top 5 hot seat status: Confirmed.

If Auburn wins:

Season saved. Freeze becomes an overnight hero. The “Hugh Freeze can’t win the big one” narrative gets torched. Suddenly, that top 5 hot seat talk disappears.

Until the subsequent loss.

The reality:

This game will define Hugh Freeze’s Auburn tenure one way or another. Win, and he buys himself a full season of goodwill. Lose, and the whispers become screams.

The Bottom Line

Georgia should win.

But Auburn, at home, at night, with everything on the line and nothing to lose, is the most dangerous version of Auburn that exists.

The smart money is on Georgia by 7-9 points.

The fun money is on Auburn and chaos.

See you Saturday night.

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USC’s Starting Center Kilian O’Connor Is Out vs Michigan’s Elite Defense. Here’s Why The Trojans’ 338 Passing Yards Per Game Still Wins Them The Game 28-21 (And Why The Injury Will Be The Go-To Excuse If They Lose)

Mark Haines on October 8, 2025

Lincoln Riley needs to win this game.

Not because USC’s season depends on it—though a loss would hurt their playoff chances. Riley needs to win because he’s in the middle of a three-game stretch that will define whether he’s a program-builder or just another coach who couldn’t handle the jump to a major conference. No. 15 Michigan at home, then at No. 16 Notre Dame, then at Nebraska. Three brutal tests in three weeks. The Cornhuskers aren’t ranked in the AP Poll, but they’re ranked 22nd by The New York Times and are receiving votes in multiple polls. Three chances to prove USC belongs in the Big Ten elite.

Win two of three, and the critical mass of Trojan supporters stays on board. Go 1-2 or worse, and the questions get louder.

So naturally, USC’s starting center Kilian O’Connor is out with a leg injury.

The Injury Factor: USC’s Built-In Excuse

O’Connor went down against Illinois and will miss multiple weeks, including this game. Losing your starting center, a team leader, and a critical piece of the offensive line against Michigan’s dominant defensive front isn’t ideal. Without O’Connor, pass protection timing gets disrupted. Run blocking schemes lose continuity. Michigan’s defensive front will relentlessly attack backup center J’Onre Reed.

If Riley loses, this injury becomes the convenient narrative. Not his fault. Not a coaching problem. Just bad injury luck at the worst possible time.

But here’s the problem: USC should still win this game.

Why USC Wins (Even Without O’Connor)

USC does what Michigan can’t; they hurt you through the air. 338 passing yards per game. 72.1% completion rate. 2.4 passing touchdowns per game. They’re efficient, explosive, and capable of scoring in bunches. Michigan’s secondary is vulnerable, allowing 206.4 passing yards per game at a 65.1% completion rate.

Even with a backup center, USC’s passing attack should be able to exploit Michigan’s weakness. Quick passes, screens, play-action to neutralize pressure—the scheme adapts. Expect 280-320 passing yards from USC.

Michigan’s run defense is elite, allowing just 77 yards per game at 2.4 yards per carry. USC will struggle on the ground. Expect 80-110 rushing yards. But USC doesn’t need to dominate the run game. They need their quarterback to pick apart Michigan’s secondary.

USC generates 370-430 total yards and scores 24-28 points.

Why Michigan Can’t Keep Pace

Michigan’s offense runs through one dimension: the ground game. 237.8 rushing yards per game at 6.4 yards per carry. It’s physical, effective Big Ten football. They’re getting healthier, too. Starting left guard Giovanni El-Hadi and tight end Hogan Hansen are both probable to return.

But their passing game is borderline nonexistent. Just 200.6 passing yards per game with a 58.8% completion rate and 0.6 passing touchdowns per game. That’s not a typo—they throw a touchdown pass roughly every other game.

USC knows this. They’ll stack the box, dare Michigan to throw, and force them into predictable situations. Michigan will grind out 190-220 rushing yards and score 20-24 points. They’ll control the time of possession and keep it competitive.

But when Michigan falls behind and needs to throw? They can’t keep pace.

The Verdict: Riley Survives Game One

USC wins, 28-21.

Michigan’s healthier offensive line helps them sustain drives and score consistently through the ground game. USC’s backup center struggles at times, limiting explosive plays. The game stays tight throughout four quarters.

But USC’s passing game talent—even compromised without O’Connor—proves too much for a Michigan team that can’t match their scoring through the air.

The wildcard: If Michigan’s defensive line overwhelms the backup center early and forces turnovers, their ball-control offense could grind out a stunning upset. But that’s unlikely.

More likely? Riley wins Game One of his three-game gauntlet, the stats hold up, and USC moves to 5-1. Then it’s on to the next test.

And if Riley loses? Don’t worry—the O’Connor injury will be the headline, not the performance. The excuse is pre-packaged. The narrative writes itself.

But Riley can’t afford to use it twice more in this stretch.

Three games. Three chances. One has to go right for the injury excuse to work. If USC goes 0-3 or 1-2 in this stretch, no amount of injury talk will save Riley from the questions about whether he can win the games that matter in the Big Ten.

Saturday is Game One. The clock is ticking.

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Week 7 – Coaches Hot Seat Rankings

Mark Haines on October 6, 2025

We’re officially past the halfway point of the 2025 college football season, and the bodies are starting to pile up.

This is when the excuses run out. “We’re young” doesn’t work anymore. “We’re installing a new system” isn’t cutting it. “We just need more time” sounds like desperation. October is when college football separates the pretenders from the contenders—and more importantly, it’s when athletic directors start having quiet conversations with search firms about who might be available in December.

Some coaches entered the season on the hot seat and managed to cool things down. Others have made their situations exponentially worse. And a few—well, a few are coaching for their jobs every single Saturday, whether they want to admit it or not.

Here are the 10 coaches sitting on the hottest seats in college football right now, ranked from “you’re probably gone” to “start packing”:

1. Trent Dilfer, UAB (American)

Here’s the thing about Trent Dilfer: nobody cares that you won a Super Bowl twenty-something years ago when you’re 3-4 and sitting at the bottom of the American Athletic Conference. Dilfer came in talking a big game about “building champions” and “culture,” but UAB looks worse now than it did before he arrived. The Blazers were a scrappy, competitive program under Bill Clark. Now? They’re getting boat-raced by teams they used to beat. When you replace a beloved coach and immediately tank the program, the seat doesn’t just get hot—it becomes a five-alarm fire.

2. Billy Napier, Florida (SEC)

Billy Napier beat Texas, and some want to pretend like that changes everything. It doesn’t. Know what beating Texas gets you at Florida? Another week. Maybe two. One upset doesn’t erase two and a half years of organizational failure. Napier is still 15-18 overall. He’s still the coach who turned one of college football’s blue bloods into a mediocre SEC also-ran. The Gators are still paying him $7+ million to compete for bowl eligibility while Georgia and Alabama compete for national championships. That’s unacceptable. The Texas win was impressive—sure—but Florida fans have seen this movie before. A big win that makes everyone feel good, followed by three inexplicable losses that remind you why the seat was hot in the first place. Napier didn’t save his job. He just delayed the inevitable conversation about when, not if, Florida moves on.

3. Mike Norvell, Florida State (ACC)

Three wins over Florida, Kent State, and an FCS team have created an illusion of recovery. The national media moved on. The hot seat conversations shifted elsewhere. Mike Norvell seems to have escaped scrutiny.

But here’s what nobody’s talking about:

Florida State hasn’t won an ACC game since November 2023. That’s a 15-game conference losing streak spanning two full seasons. The Seminoles are 0-2 in ACC play right now. The streak is alive and getting longer.

Think about that timeline:

2023: 13-1, ACC Champions
2024: 2-10 overall, 1-7 in conference
2025: 3-2 overall, 0-2 in conference

This isn’t a one-year blip. This is a two-year organizational collapse at one of college football’s blue bloods. Norvell went from undefeated to unwatchable in less than 365 days, and the worst part? There’s no evidence that things are getting better. The wins are smoke and mirrors. The losses in conference play are the reality. And if FSU can’t figure out how to win an ACC game soon, Norvell won’t be around to see Year 4.

4. Jeff Choate, Nevada (Mountain West)

Jeff Choate is discovering that what works at Montana State may not necessarily translate to the FBS level. Nevada is 2-5, and worse, they’re not even competitive in games they should win. Choate’s “tough, physical football” approach sounds great in theory, but when you’re getting pushed around by mid-tier Mountain West teams, it’s clear something isn’t working. The Wolf Pack faithful are patient people, but patience runs out when you’re staring down a 3-9 or 4-8 season. Choate needs to show he can adapt—and fast—or he’ll be heading back to the FCS.

5. Joe Moorhead, Akron (MAC)

Joe Moorhead’s track record says he should be better than this. He’s coordinated elite offenses. He won at Fordham. But Mississippi State? Mississippi State fans still haven’t forgiven him for tanking their program. And now at Akron, he’s showing flashes of the same problem: his teams look good on paper but can’t finish. The Zips are 2-6, and here’s the frustrating part—they’re winning the stat sheet in games they lose. Yards? Check. First downs? Check. Time of possession? Check. But stats don’t win games. Scoring touchdowns and field goals wins games. And Akron can’t score when it matters. They move the ball between the 20s and then stall out in the red zone. That’s coaching. That’s execution. That’s on Moorhead. A couple of wins this season is technically an improvement over the dumpster fire Akron has been, but when you’re celebrating 2-6 as progress, your seat is scorching hot.

6. Butch Jones, Arkansas State (Sun Belt)

Butch Jones is proof that just because you failed upward once doesn’t mean you’ll get a second chance. Jones was a disaster at Tennessee, and now he’s a disaster at Arkansas State. The Red Wolves are underperforming in a Sun Belt Conference that’s supposed to be wide open, and Jones’s “championship culture” shtick is no longer resonating. Players aren’t buying in, fans aren’t showing up, and the program feels like it’s treading water. Arkansas State didn’t hire Butch Jones to be mediocre—they hired him because they thought he’d learned from his Tennessee mistakes. Turns out, he didn’t.

7. James Franklin, Penn State (Big Ten)

James Franklin just lost to UCLA. UCLA. A UCLA team so bad that they fired their offensive coordinator mid-season. A UCLA team that handed play-calling duties to Jerry Neuheisel—yes, Rick Neuheisel’s son—who proceeded to carve up Penn State’s defense like he was running the 2001 Miami Hurricanes offense. And Franklin? Franklin made zero adjustments. He stood on the sideline at the Rose Bowl, watching Jerry’s revamped offense shred his team while CBS cameras cut to Rick Neuheisel in the studio, celebrating his son’s victory. This wasn’t just a loss. This was the biggest upset of the season. This was a program-defining embarrassment. Penn State fans are done with “good enough.” They’re done with 10-win seasons that end with inexplicable losses to teams they should beat by 20. Franklin recruits at an elite level. He has NFL talent all over the roster. But when it matters—when his team needs him to make an adjustment, outsmart a first-time play-caller, show up in a big moment—he disappears. That’s why his seat is nuclear hot. Losing to UCLA in 2025 isn’t just bad; it’s unacceptable.

9. Derek Mason, Middle Tennessee (C-USA)

Derek Mason is a defensive coach in an era where offense wins championships, and it shows. Middle Tennessee is 2-6, and while the defense occasionally flashes, the offense is unwatchable. Mason’s problem is that he’s building a program like it’s 2005, not 2025. In today’s college football, you need to score 35+ points to win games, and the Blue Raiders can barely crack 20. Mason’s seat is hot because MTSU fans are asking a fair question: What exactly are we getting better at? If the answer is “nothing,” then it’s time to move on.

10. Scotty Walden, UTEP (C-USA)

Scotty Walden is the new kid on the block, and he’s already in trouble. UTEP hired him because of his success at Austin Peay, but the jump from FCS to FBS is massive—and Walden is drowning. The Miners are 1-7, and it’s not even close. They’re getting blown out on a weekly basis, and there’s no sign of improvement. The issue isn’t just that UTEP is losing—it’s that they look completely unprepared. Walden’s seat is hot because if you can’t show any progress in Year 1, people start wondering if you’re the right guy. And at UTEP, where expectations are low, that’s saying something.

Where does your coach stand? Check out the complete 136 FBS Coaches Hot Seat Rankings.

The Bottom Line:

These 10 coaches are in survival mode. Some will make it to bowl season. Some won’t make it to Thanksgiving. And a few might shock everyone and save their jobs with a November run that makes athletic directors rethink everything.

But here’s the reality: once you’re on a hot seat list, you’re never really off it. You’re just buying time until the next loss reignites the conversation.

Want to know who else we’re watching? Our newsletter subscribers get an exclusive breakdown of 4 under-the-radar coaches who aren’t on this list yet—but probably should be. These are the names nobody’s talking about right now, but will be by season’s end.

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Because in college football, the only thing hotter than the playoff race is the coaching carousel—and we’re tracking every name, every rumor, and every AD who’s about to make a very expensive decision.

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Clemson Is 1-3 And Desperate. North Carolina Can’t Score. Here’s Why Saturday’s ACC Matchup Will Be Ugly—And Why Clemson Wins Anyway

Mark Haines on October 3, 2025

Saturday’s ACC matchup is the college football equivalent of two drowning men fighting over a life vest.

Clemson entered 2025 as a conference championship favorite. North Carolina hired Bill Belichick—the greatest NFL coach of all time—to transform their program. Four games in, both teams are disasters. Clemson is 1-3 and reeling. UNC is 2-2 and can’t score points if their lives depended on it. One of these teams will emerge victorious. The other will spiral deeper into crisis mode.

Let me break down what the numbers reveal about both teams and why this game matters more than you might think.

Clemson: The Preseason Darling That Face-Planted

The Tigers were expected to compete for ACC titles and College Football Playoff spots.

Instead, they’ve lost three straight games and look completely lost. Their offense averages 365.3 yards per game—not terrible on paper, but they’re scoring just 18 points per game in losses. That’s the problem. Moving the ball doesn’t matter if you can’t finish drives. They’re turning the ball over 1.8 times per game while forcing only 1.3 takeaways. That -0.5 turnover margin is killing them. Their losses tell the whole story: 10-17 to LSU, 21-24 to Georgia Tech, and 21-34 to Syracuse. The only game they won was an underwhelming 27-16 victory over Troy.

Here’s what’s working:

Passing game: 249 yards per game, 1.5 TDs
Defense: Allowing 362 yards per game (solid, not spectacular)
Yards per play: 5.7 (respectable efficiency)

Here’s what’s broken:

Red zone execution: Can’t punch it in when it matters
Turnover battle: Losing it badly
Rushing attack: Just 116.3 yards per game, 1 TD per game
Confidence: Three straight losses will do that

This is a team with talent that’s completely underperforming expectations.

North Carolina: Bill Belichick Learns College Football Is Different

The Belichick hiring was supposed to change everything.

It hasn’t. UNC’s offense is an absolute train wreck—263.5 total yards per game. That’s not “struggling.” That’s historically bad for a Power 4 conference team. They’re averaging a pathetic 4.9 yards per play. For context, that’s the kind of efficiency you’d expect from a bottom-tier Group of 5 program. Their passing game generates just 150 yards per game. Their running game isn’t much better at 113.5 yards. They score 1.3 passing touchdowns per game and 1 rushing touchdown. Do the math: that’s 2.3 total touchdowns per game.

The losses are ugly:

TCU demolished them 48-14
UCF embarrassed them 34-9
Their two wins came against Charlotte (20-3) and Richmond (41-6)

Translation: They beat two teams they should have destroyed, but got destroyed by anyone decent.

The defense is actually better than you’d think—allowing 344.5 yards per game, which is actually superior to Clemson’s defense. But when your offense can’t sustain drives or score points, it doesn’t matter how well your defense plays. They’re even in the turnover battle at 0.0 per game, which means they’re not creating extra possessions to compensate for their offensive ineptitude.

Belichick is learning that NFL coaching genius doesn’t automatically translate when your quarterback can’t complete passes and your skill players can’t make plays.

The Matchup: Where Clemson Should Dominate

This game comes down to one simple fact: Clemson is better everywhere.

Their offense generates 101.8 more yards per game than North Carolina’s offense. Their 5.7 yards per play crushes UNC’s 4.9. Even though both defenses are similar, Clemson’s desperation, combined with the challenge of facing UNC’s anemic offense, creates the perfect storm for them to finally get back on track. North Carolina has shown zero ability to score against competent opponents. Clemson is competent. Barely, but competent.

The key advantages for Clemson:

Offensive firepower: They move the ball consistently
Efficiency edge: 0.8 yards per play advantage
Desperation: They NEED this win to salvage their season
Matchup: UNC can’t score on anyone

Where UNC could surprise:

Home field advantage
Clemson’s turnover problems continue
Belichick schemes something unexpected

But let’s be honest—UNC’s offense is too broken for any of that to matter.

My Prediction: Clemson 31, North Carolina 14

Clemson wins, and it’s not close.

They’re playing a team that averages 11.5 points in losses and can barely move the football. Even with Clemson’s struggles, they have too much talent and too much desperation to lose this game. They’ll control possession, limit UNC’s already-limited scoring opportunities, and finally find the end zone enough times to win comfortably. North Carolina will score one touchdown on a broken play or short field, add a field goal or garbage-time score, and otherwise look completely overmatched.

The real story isn’t who wins this game.

The real story is what happens next. Clemson gets a much-needed confidence boost but remains far below preseason expectations. They’re not competing for championships—they’re just trying to make a bowl game at this point. For North Carolina, this loss (and it will be a loss) raises serious questions about whether Belichick can actually fix this mess. NFL coaching legends don’t mean anything in college football if you can’t recruit, develop talent, and put together a functional offensive system.

Saturday’s game is must-watch television for all the wrong reasons—two disappointing teams desperately trying not to drown.

One will survive. The other will sink deeper.

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Spotlight on the Top Five – Week 6 Coaches Hot Seat Rankings

Mark Haines on September 30, 2025

Most people have no idea how quickly things can unravel in college football.

One day, you’re the “savior” of a storied program. Next, you’re fielding questions about your buyout clause and watching fans organize billboards calling for your resignation. The difference between job security and unemployment in this business isn’t always talent or even wins—it’s momentum. And right now, these five coaches have none.

Billy Napier is watching Florida become irrelevant in the SEC. Trent Dilfer can’t win a single road game at UAB. Joe Moorhead’s Akron teams lose close games like it’s their full-time job. Butch Jones is in year five at Arkansas State and still can’t crack .500. Sonny Cumbie’s “offensive innovation” at Louisiana Tech has produced nothing but more losses.

The clock is ticking.

Here are the five coaches who better start winning—fast—or they’ll be updating their LinkedIn profiles before Thanksgiving.

1. Billy Napier — Florida (SEC)

Napier’s seat is the hottest in college football.

Florida has a losing overall record (20-22) and an abysmal mark against key rivals (3-11 vs. Miami, Georgia, Tennessee, FSU, LSU). Fan frustration is at an all-time high due to:

Underperforming teams year after year
Poor offensive play that fails to capitalize on elite recruiting
Frequent penalties that cost games
Repeated blown opportunities in winnable contests

Administrative support is eroding as the Gators appear to be treading water in a league that demands immediate improvement.

2. Trent Dilfer — UAB (American)

Dilfer is 7-17 at UAB, with no road wins.

The fanbase is turning on both his leadership and the athletic department for the controversial hire. Performance has declined since his arrival, and the program’s competitiveness has suffered a sharp decline. The buyout remains a hurdle, but a lack of progress or response has the pressure rising each week.

3. Joe Moorhead — Akron (MAC)

Moorhead’s Zips are just 8-28 over three years.

Akron is showing incremental stat gains but not translating that into wins. The key issues:

Frequent close losses
Faltering in one-score games
A lack of true program momentum

The expectation is wins now, not merely competitiveness.

Patience is nearly gone.

4. Butch Jones — Arkansas State (Sun Belt)

Now in his fifth year, Jones cannot get the Red Wolves out of the bottom of the Sun Belt.

With a cumulative record of 19-31, hopes of turning around the program have largely faded. The administration is expected to take action if meaningful improvement isn’t demonstrated—that means a winning season is likely a must.

5. Sonny Cumbie — Louisiana Tech (C-USA)

Cumbie owns a 13-27 mark and has failed to show substantial progress in Ruston.

Offensive innovation has not yielded meaningful results, and buyout considerations are now being outweighed by growing donor and fan restlessness.

The next losing streak or lack of tangible on-field progress could be his last.

The Bottom Line: Win Now, Or Pack Your Office

These five coaches have no excuses.

No more “building for the future.” No more “we’re close.” No more moral victories. College football is a results business, and right now, these programs are getting zero return on their investment. Billy Napier can’t beat Florida’s rivals. Trent Dilfer can’t win on the road. Joe Moorhead can’t close games. Butch Jones can’t break .500. And Sonny Cumbie’s offense isn’t innovating anything except new ways to lose.

Want the full story? This is just the tip of the iceberg.

Every Tuesday during football season, we rank all 136 FBS coaches—and newsletter subscribers get an exclusive, deeper dive into the top 10 (this week, we threw in a bonus #11). That means inside intel on buyout clauses, potential replacements, and which athletic directors are already making phone calls behind closed doors. Subscribe to stay ahead of the chaos before it hits ESPN.

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From Hot Seat to Playoff Hunt: How FSU and Virginia Went From College Football’s Biggest Disasters to Undefeated Juggernauts in One Season

Mark Haines on September 26, 2025

Friday Night Lights in Charlottesville
#8 Florida State (3-0) at Virginia (3-1)
Scott Stadium, Charlottesville, VA
Friday, September 26, 2025 – 7:00 PM ET

The Storylines

Florida State: From Disaster to Dynasty (Again)

The Seminoles have authored one of the most remarkable turnarounds in recent college football history. After a catastrophic 2-10 season in 2024 that saw them get outgained by 115.6 yards per game and score just 270.3 yards of total offense per contest, FSU has exploded onto the scene in 2025.

2025 Statistical Dominance:

628.7 yards per game of total offense (+358.4 from 2024!)
248.0 yards allowed per game on defense (-137.9 improvement)
+380.7 yard differential per game (a staggering +496.3 swing from 2024)
363.0 rushing yards per game (up from an anemic 89.9 in 2024)

The Seminoles announced their arrival with a stunning 31-17 victory over #8 Alabama in the season opener, then followed with dominant blowouts of East Texas A&M (77-3) and Kent State (66-10). This is a program that has found its identity again after losing it completely in 2024.

Virginia: Tony Elliott Finally Breaks Through

Cavaliers head coach Tony Elliott entered 2025 as high as #7 on coaching hot seat rankings after years of mediocrity in Charlottesville. Four games into the season, he’s likely secured his job for years to come with an equally impressive transformation.

Virginia’s Renaissance:

564.5 yards per game of total offense (up 56% from 360.9 in 2024)
313.5 yards allowed per game (-23% improvement from 408.3)
+251.0 yard differential per game (up from -47.4 in 2024)
251.5 rushing yards per game (+91% improvement from 131.9)

Elliott’s squad has posted signature wins over Coastal Carolina (48-7), William & Mary (55-16), and Stanford (48-20), with their only loss coming in a competitive 31-35 defeat to NC State.

Key Matchup Battles

Rushing Attacks vs. Run Defenses

This could be the decisive factor. Both teams have transformed their ground games into elite units:

FSU Rushing (363.0 ypg) vs UVA Rush Defense (100.3 ypg allowed)
UVA Rushing (251.5 ypg) vs FSU Rush Defense (78.3 ypg allowed)

Florida State’s rushing explosion has been the key to their offensive transformation, while Virginia has found a balanced attack that keeps defenses honest. However, FSU’s run defense has been even more dominant, allowing just 78.3 yards per game.

Quarterback Play

Florida State appears to have solved their 2024 quarterback carousel that featured struggling performances from D.J. Uiagalelei, Brock Glenn, and Luke Kromenhoek. The 2025 passing efficiency (70.7% completion rate, 265.7 ypg) suggests they’ve found their answer.

Virginia’s Anthony Colandrea has taken a massive step forward from his inconsistent 2024 (61.9% completion, 13 TD/11 INT) to become a precise, efficient leader (67.8% completion rate, 313.0 ypg).

Explosive Play Potential

Both offenses are now averaging over 7.0 yards per play (FSU: 8.9, UVA: 7.2), a massive increase from their 2024 struggles. The team that creates more explosive plays will likely control this high-scoring affair.

What’s At Stake

For Florida State

Undefeated season and potential playoff positioning
National credibility after the 2024 embarrassment
ACC Championship aspirations in their first year back to form
Momentum heading into the meat of their ACC schedule

For Virginia

Program validation under Tony Elliott’s leadership
ACC relevance for the first time in years
Upset potential against a ranked opponent at home
Continued hot seat relief for Elliott with a signature win

For Both Programs

This game represents the collision of two remarkable coaching turnarounds. Both Mike Norvell at FSU and Tony Elliott at UVA were facing serious questions about their futures just months ago. Now they’re leading two of the most improved teams in college football.

The Prediction

Florida State 38, Virginia 28

This should be an instant classic between two explosive offenses. FSU’s slightly more dominant statistical profile and their experience against elite competition (Alabama) give them the edge. Still, Virginia’s home field advantage and newfound confidence make this much closer than the rankings suggest.

Expect a track meet with over 1,100 total yards of offense between these two teams. The difference will likely come down to a few explosive plays and which team can get a crucial stop when needed.

Keys to Victory:

FSU: Establish the rushing attack early and force Virginia into a one-dimensional passing game
UVA: Use home crowd energy to create early momentum and keep pace in what should be a high-scoring affair

Both programs have gone from coaching hot seats to legitimate contenders in remarkable fashion. Tonight’s winner takes a massive step toward ACC Championship contention.

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The Mike Gundy Era Is Over (Whether Oklahoma State Admits It Or Not)

Mark Haines on September 23, 2025

Oklahoma State’s legendary coach has become a cautionary tale about staying too long at the party

Here’s what nobody wants to say out loud.

Mike Gundy is done. Not “struggling.” Not “going through a rough patch.” Not “needing time to adjust to the new landscape.” Done.

And the numbers don’t lie—even when the narrative tries to.

The Brutal Reality Check

Let me paint you a picture of just how far Oklahoma State has fallen.

172.3 passing yards per game. That’s it. That’s the offensive explosion Mike Gundy has engineered in 2025. For context, most high school teams throw for more than that. 0.3 passing touchdowns per game. You read that correctly. In three games, Oklahoma State has thrown ONE touchdown pass. Uno. A single aerial score. 426.7 yards allowed per game. The defense—if we can even call it that—is surrendering nearly 7 yards every time an opponent snaps the ball.

But here’s the number that should make every Oklahoma State administrator’s blood run cold.

When Legends Become Liabilities

Twenty years ago, Mike Gundy was the answer to Oklahoma State’s prayers.

He turned the Cowboys into a consistent winner. Eighteen straight winning seasons. Five major bowl appearances. 102 Big 12 wins—third in conference history. He made Oklahoma State a national presence. But success has an expiration date. And Gundy’s expired somewhere between his “I’m a man! I’m 40!” rant and losing to Tulsa at home for the first time since the Clinton administration.

The statistical evidence isn’t just bad—it’s historically catastrophic.

The $15 Million Question

Here’s where things get interesting (and expensive).

Oklahoma State owes Gundy $15 million if it fires him before 2027. That’s a lot of money for a school that’s already struggling with NIL funding and watching their coach publicly complain about Oregon’s “$40 million roster.” But you know what’s more expensive than $15 million? Irrelevance. Every game Gundy stays, every embarrassing loss, every empty seat in Boone Pickens Stadium—that’s the real cost.

That’s the price of watching a proud program become a punchline.

The Oregon Excuse Factory

Before Oklahoma State got boat-raced 69-3 by Oregon, Gundy spent his press conference whining about financial disadvantages.

He suggested teams like Oregon shouldn’t play teams with fewer resources. This is where we separate legends from losers. Great coaches find ways to win with what they have. Average coaches make excuses about what they don’t have. Guess which category Gundy has fallen into? Two weeks after complaining about Oregon’s spending, Tulsa—with a NIL budget smaller than most high school booster clubs—walked into Stillwater and won.

The excuses don’t work when you’re getting out-coached by teams that can’t even spell “NIL.”

The Statistical Smoking Gun

Let’s discuss what good coaching looks like versus what Oklahoma State is currently receiving.

Elite programs adapt. Oklahoma State’s passing game has gotten worse every year. Elite programs develop talent. The Cowboys have more transfers than touchdowns. Elite programs win games they should win. Oklahoma State can’t beat Tulsa at home. Elite programs prepare for the future. Gundy hired two coordinators who hadn’t called plays since 2021. This isn’t about NIL. This isn’t about the transfer portal. This isn’t about “the changing landscape of college football.”

This is about a coach who stopped evolving while the game passed him by.

The Uncomfortable Truth

Mike Gundy gave Oklahoma State twenty incredible years.

He deserves gratitude, respect, and a place in the school’s Hall of Fame. What he doesn’t deserve is another season to damage further the program he helped build. The fans know it—they booed at halftime against Tulsa and left early. The media knows it—even OSU’s own radio broadcast called it “the worst sore we’ve seen in a long time.” The administration knows it—they restructured his contract in December with a $1 million pay cut and modified buyout terms.

Everyone knows it except the man making $6.75 million to go 1-2 against teams like Tennessee-Martin, Oregon, and Tulsa.

The Way Forward

Oklahoma State has two choices.

Pay the $15 million and start rebuilding now. Watch their program become the laughingstock of the Big 12. The first option is expensive. The second option is fatal. Great organizations make difficult decisions before they become impossible ones. They cut ties with legends before legends become liabilities. Mike Gundy was the right coach for Oklahoma State for twenty years.

But the Mike Gundy Era is over.

The numbers don’t lie.

The results speak for themselves. And sometimes, the most brutal truth is that every great story has an ending. Mike Gundy’s story at Oklahoma State was beautiful.

But it’s time to write the final chapter.

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Two Coaches, Two Seasons: How Cal vs San Diego State Became A Tale of Opposite Trajectories

Mark Haines on September 18, 2025

Cal coach Justin Wilcox started this season at #15 on our Coaches Hot Seat Rankings. This week, he sits at #41.

Cal supporters were calling for his firing. Eight years of mediocrity had worn thin on a fanbase that remembered the Jeff Tedford glory days. The move to the ACC felt like a desperate attempt to save a program—and a coach—that had lost its way.

Three games into the 2025 season, Wilcox isn’t just off the hot seat.

He’s got Cal positioned as a legitimate ACC championship contender.

The Numbers Don’t Lie

Let’s start with what actually matters: results.

2024 Cal: 6-7 record, including a bowl loss. Mediocre on both sides of the ball.

2025 Cal: 3-0 with statement wins, including a road victory at Oregon State and a home domination of Big Ten’s Minnesota.

But here’s where it gets interesting—the statistical transformation is unprecedented.

The Defensive Revolution:

Total Defense: 421.4 yards allowed (2024) → 280.0 yards allowed (2025)
That’s 141+ fewer yards per game—one of the most dramatic single-season improvements in college football
Rush Defense: 109.8 yards allowed → 82.3 yards allowed (-27.5 yards, -25.0%)
Pass Defense: 227.6 yards allowed → 197.7 yards allowed (-29.9 yards, -13.1%)

The Offensive Evolution:

Scoring: 23.2 ppg → 24.3 ppg
Total Offense: 380.1 yards → 387.7 yards
Passing: 258.6 yards → 269.0 yards (+10.4 yards)

This isn’t a marginal improvement. This is a systematic transformation.

The Schedule That Changes Everything

Here’s where Wilcox caught lightning in a bottle: Cal’s ACC scheduling rotation.

Teams Cal AVOIDS in 2025: Clemson, Miami, Florida State, Georgia Tech, NC State, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, Wake Forest.

Teams Cal PLAYS in ACC action:

@ Boston College
vs Duke (ACC home opener)
vs North Carolina (Bill Belichick’s debut season)
@ Virginia Tech
vs Virginia
@ Louisville (their toughest road test)
@ Stanford (Big Game rivalry)
vs SMU (potential title game preview)

Look at that list again.

Cal avoided every single ACC powerhouse except SMU—and they get the Mustangs at home in the regular season finale.

The Hot Seat Parallel That Should Terrify Sean Lewis

While Wilcox has engineered one of the most dramatic coaching turnarounds in recent memory, his Week 4 opponent represents the opposite trajectory.

Sean Lewis at San Diego State:

Started at #41 on our Hot Seat Rankings
Now sitting at #17 and climbing
His “AztecFAST” offense has somehow gotten WORSE in Year 2

The Numbers:

2024 SDSU: 19.5 points per game (terrible)
2025 SDSU: 15.5 points per game (historically bad)
Point Differential: -8.3 (2024) → -3.0 (2025)*

*Only improved because their defense got dramatically better while the offense cratered

The Fan Revolt: Season ticket sales down 33%. The program handed out 4,000 free tickets to get bodies in seats for Cal’s visit. Lewis is exhibiting all the warning signs of a coach about to be fired mid-season.

Saturday’s Matchup: Cal (24.3 ppg, elite defense) vs SDSU (15.5 ppg, historically bad offense)

This should be a statement win that propels Cal toward ACC title contention.

The Path to Charlotte

Here’s the reality that nobody wants to talk about: Cal has a legitimate path to the ACC Championship Game.

The New Format: No divisions. The two teams with the best ACC conference records play for the title.

Cal’s Realistic Projection:

Likely Wins (5 games): Boston College, Duke, Virginia Tech, Virginia, Stanford
Toss-ups (2 games): North Carolina (Belichick’s first year chaos), Louisville (road)
Statement Game (1 game): SMU at home in finale

Path to 7-1 in ACC play: Beat the teams you should beat, split the toss-ups, and upset SMU at home.

Path to 6-2 in ACC play: Same as above, but lose one of the “sure things.”

Either record likely gets Cal to Charlotte.

The Transformation Timeline

January 2025: Cal supporters want Wilcox fired
March 2025: Wilcox at #15 on Hot Seat Rankings
September 2025: Cal 3-0 with the most improved defense in college football
December 2025: Playing for an ACC Championship?

This is what great coaching looks like when everything clicks.

Wilcox didn’t just make cosmetic changes. He fundamentally transformed the identity of his program. The defense that was giving up 421+ yards per game in 2024 is now allowing just 280 yards in 2025—that’s the kind of year-over-year improvement that typically takes multiple recruiting cycles and scheme overhauls.

The Foster Parallel

Remember our piece on DeShaun Foster’s situation at UCLA? The parallels between Foster’s final days and Sean Lewis’s current predicament at San Diego State are striking:

Initial optimism followed by spectacular failure
Gimmicky offensive systems that don’t work
Fan revolts and administrative pressure
Players transferring out

But Wilcox represents the opposite trajectory.

Sometimes a coach on the hot seat doesn’t need to be fired—he needs to be challenged. The move to the ACC, the pressure from fans, the make-or-break moment seemed to unlock something in Wilcox that eight years at Cal hadn’t revealed.

The Bottom Line

Justin Wilcox started 2025 fighting for his job.

He might end it fighting for a conference championship.

The statistical improvements aren’t flukes. The schedule isn’t luck—it’s opportunity. The wins aren’t accidents—they’re the result of systematic program transformation.

Cal’s defense has improved by 141 yards per game. Their offense is more efficient. Their quarterback play is steady. Their coaching is sharp.

Most importantly, they avoid Clemson, Miami, and the ACC’s elite tier while getting most of their challenging games at home.

Prediction: Cal goes 6-2 or 7-1 in ACC play and plays for the conference championship.

Hot Seat Status: Wilcox isn’t just off our rankings—he’s building a program that could compete at the highest level for years to come.

Sometimes, the coach everyone wants fired is exactly the coach who needed the proper support and circumstances to succeed.

Justin Wilcox just found his.

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