Blog Article

Grading the Carousel: Preliminary Hire Grades for the 2024-25 Cycle

Mark Haines on December 3, 2025

The carousel never stops spinning.

We’re tracking 21 coaching changes this cycle — 13 with new coaches already named, 8 still waiting on their guy. What follows are our preliminary grades across three categories: Hire Quality, Process, and Fan/Media Sentiment.

These aren’t final verdicts.

They’re initial reactions. First impressions. The kind of grades that will look either brilliant or idiotic in three years when we revisit them.

We’ll do deep dives on each hire individually in the coming weeks. But for now, here’s where every job stands — from the home runs to the dumpster fires.

The Home Runs

These programs swung big and connected.

Virginia Tech — James Franklin (A / A– / A)

The Hokies didn’t just make a hire. They made a statement.

Landing James Franklin from Penn State signals that Virginia Tech is done being a sleeping giant. The staff and recruiting implications will ripple through the ACC for years. The only question now is whether VT finally acts like the resource program it’s always claimed to be.

How his Penn State staff/recruits follow, what this does to the ACC power structure, and whether VT is finally acting like a “resource program” again.

Oregon State — JaMarcus Shephard (A / A– / A)

The Beavers landed their guy without a nationwide circus.

JaMarcus Shephard comes from Alabama’s staff into the most uncertain moment in Oregon State history. Post-realignment survival depends on portal management and identity preservation. A first-time head coach navigating conference limbo while maintaining Trent Bray’s defensive DNA is a tall order — but OSU handled this search like a program that knows exactly who it is.

Post-realignment survival, recruiting without a stable league home, and whether a first-time HC can maintain Bray’s defensive identity.

LSU — Lane Kiffin (A / D / A)

The hire is an A. The process was a circus.

Lane Kiffin to LSU was the worst-kept secret in college football, which made the public courtship even messier. But the end result? A program with unlimited resources landing one of the sport’s best offensive minds and most ruthless recruiters. The marriage either produces championships or a spectacular implosion. There is no middle ground in Baton Rouge.

Ole Miss fallout, staff poaching wars, and if LSU’s booster culture amplifies or burns out Kiffin’s volatility in a hurry.

Colorado State — Jim Mora Jr. (A / B / B+)

The Mountain West needed a credible name. CSU delivered.

Jim Mora brings NFL pedigree, P4 experience, and a recruiting network that Jay Norvell never fully activated. The question is whether this is a “last tour” victory lap or a legitimate rebuild. Either way, CSU positioned itself to capitalize on a weakened conference landscape.

Can Mora still grind on the trail, how CSU positions itself vs. a weakened MWC, and whether this is a “last tour” or a true rebuild.

Kentucky — Will Stein (A / B– / B)

Mark Stoops cast a long shadow. Will Stein steps into it confidently.

The offensive identity pivot is exactly what Kentucky needed after years of defensive-first football. Stein’s explosiveness ceiling could push the Wildcats from the 7-win band into genuine SEC East contention. The NIL landscape remains a challenge, but this hire signals ambition.

Stoops’ shadow, offensive identity pivot, NIL vs. league peers, and whether Stein can keep Kentucky in the 7–9 win band with a higher explosiveness ceiling.

Auburn — Alex Golesh (A– / B+ / B+)

Auburn got its tempo guy, Alex Golesh, from South Florida.

Golesh’s USF offense translated well enough to earn him a shot at the SEC’s toughest division. The patience level in Auburn is… historically nonexistent. But the process was clean, the hire was decisive, and line-of-scrimmage recruiting will determine whether this becomes a home run or a cautionary tale.

Translation of his USF tempo offense to the SEC West equivalent, patience level in Auburn, and how he recruits the lines of scrimmage.

The Solid Singles

Not flashy. Not embarrassing. Just… fine.

Stanford — Tavita Pritchard (B+ / B / B)

The Cardinal went internal and pragmatic.

Tavita Pritchard inherits Andrew Luck’s GM involvement and Stanford’s perpetual NIL/admissions constraints. The bet is that an NFL-style QB room can overcome portal friction in an ACC that doesn’t care about your academic reputation. It’s a reasonable swing given the circumstances.

Andrew Luck’s GM role, Stanford’s NIL constraints, and whether an NFL-style QB room can overcome admissions/portal friction in the ACC.

UCLA — Bob Chesney (B+ / C / C+)

This is either the next Kalen DeBoer or bargain shopping.

Bob Chesney’s jump from FCS to the Big Ten grind is significant. Here’s the strange part: the process was actually solid — because Martin Jarmond wasn’t running it. And that tells you everything about the real red flags at this job. An ineffective, egomaniacal athletic director. A disconnected, tone-deaf chancellor. A bean counter who only understands counting beans. Chesney’s system might translate just fine. Whether anyone can succeed under this administration is the bigger question.

The massive jump from FCS to the Big Ten grind, and whether anyone can succeed under an ineffective AD, a tone-deaf chancellor, and an administration that only understands counting beans.

Oklahoma State — Eric Morris (B– / B– / B–)

Life after Gundy is officially here.

Eric Morris keeps the Air Raid DNA without the 20-year cultural infrastructure. The question is whether Oklahoma State wants to chase Big 12 titles or just stability. This hire suggests stability. That’s not necessarily wrong — but it’s not inspiring either.

Life after Gundy’s long tenure, keeping the Air Raid DNA without the old culture, and whether OSU wants to chase Big 12 titles or just stability.

Ole Miss — Pete Golding (B / C+ / B)

Continuity hire. Full stop.

Pete Golding’s job is to keep the portal from hemorrhaging and maintain defensive credibility while the offense finds a new identity post-Kiffin. Whether he can be more than a recruiter/DC remains the central question. The Rebels are betting on stability over splash.

Defensive continuity vs. offensive identity change, portal retention after Kiffin, and whether Golding can be more than a recruiter/DC.

Michigan State — Pat Fitzgerald (C / B / B)

The Spartans hired a culture reset.

After back-to-back scandals, Pat Fitzgerald’s “Northwestern-style overachiever” ceiling might be exactly what East Lansing needs. The long-term recruiting upside against Ohio State and Michigan is… limited. But the hire makes sense for a program that desperately needed adults in the room.

Cultural cleanup after back-to-back scandals, ceiling of “Northwestern-style overachiever” in the new Big Ten, and long-term recruiting upside vs. Ohio State/Michigan.

The Fan Base Meltdowns

These aren’t going well.

Florida — Jon Sumrall (C / B+ / D)

The process was fine. The reaction was not.

Sumrall arrives with Steve Spurrier’s public blessing and a mandate to fix Billy Napier’s in-game disasters. But there’s a red flag worth noting: Sumrall’s Tulane teams were consistently among the most penalized in the country — the kind of undisciplined football that suggests coaching issues, not just player mistakes. Florida fans already wanted a bigger name. The D in sentiment reflects a fan base that feels the program settled.

Spurrier publicly blessing the hire, fixing Napier’s in-game messes, and whether Sumrall can weaponize UF’s NIL/portal machine fast enough in the SEC arms race.

Arkansas — Ryan Silverfield (D+ / D / D)

This is a disaster.

The fan backlash isn’t simmering — it’s boiling over into organized protests. Ryan Silverfield’s task is nearly impossible: win quickly in a 16-team SEC with a hostile home base from Day 1. The AD’s survival odds are now directly tied to Silverfield’s record. D across the board, and that might be generous.

Fan backlash/protests, AD survival odds, and if Silverfield can win quickly enough in the new 16-team SEC to quiet a hostile base.

The Clown Shows

No other way to describe these.

Penn State — TBD (INC / F / F)

The Nittany Lions are bleeding.

James Franklin is gone. The portal is circling. And Penn State is playing leverage games with agents while their roster evaporates in real time. At some point, “waiting for the right guy” becomes “watching your program collapse.” That point may have already passed.

Whether PSU finally swings for a top-5 coach, how Sexton’s leverage games play out, and how long they can sit in limbo without bleeding portal talent.

UAB — TBD (INC / F / F)

The Bill Clark era feels like ancient history now.

Former coach Trent Dilfer gets plenty of blame, but AD Mark Ingram deserves more. Together they torched everything Clark built — the goodwill, the culture, the upward trajectory. All of it gone. Now the job sits open and nobody wants it. This isn’t a “hidden gem” search. It’s a punchline. Stadium and resources exist on paper, but the dysfunction has made this one of the least attractive openings in the country.

How attractive the job really is post-Dilfer, stadium/resources vs. recent chaos, and whether UAB leans into offense again or buys a culture guy.

Still on the Board

These jobs remain open. Grades pending.

California (INC / B / B) — Cal’s identity crisis continues. Do they want academics or football? The ACC move demands an answer.

UConn (INC / C+ / C) — Independence is lonely. The next hire determines whether UConn commits to regional recruiting or another failed “national” vision.

North Texas (INC / C / C) — Serial resets in Denton. UNT needs to pick an offensive identity and stick with it.

Coastal Carolina (INC / B– / B–) — The post-Chadwell slump continues. Another spread-option innovator, or something different?

South Florida (INC / B / B) — Golesh left equity in the roster. USF has a window before FSU/UF/Miami clean up their messes.

Memphis (INC / B / B) — The Tigers launch coaches. The question is whether they want another launchpad guy or someone who stays.

The Bottom Line

Thirteen hires graded. Eight more coming.

The best hire so far? Virginia Tech landing James Franklin changes the ACC. The worst situation? Arkansas — and it’s not close.

We’ll revisit these grades in-season. Some will age like wine. Others will age like milk.

The carousel keeps spinning.

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COACHES HOT SEAT: WEEK 13 RANKINGS

Mark Haines on November 18, 2025

The clock just hit midnight on college football’s struggling coaches.

No more “next year” promises. No more “we’re close” platitudes. Week 12 stripped away the illusions and exposed the reality: some programs are moving forward, and others are circling the drain.

Jonathan Smith is 0-7 in Big Ten play. Shane Beamer blew a 27-point halftime lead in the most catastrophic collapse of the season. Mike Norvell’s Florida State is 2-12 in ACC games over two years. Bill Belichick is 0-5 against Power Four opponents in his first college season.

Athletic directors are done selling hope to angry donors. Boosters are done writing checks for mediocrity. The portal opens in three weeks, and players are already making decisions about their futures.

This is where coaching careers get defined—or destroyed.

Here are the ten coaches who entered Week 12 with everything to prove and nothing left to hide behind.

1. Jonathan Smith – Michigan State Spartans (3-7, 0-7 Big Ten)

Jonathan Smith’s seat isn’t just hot anymore. It’s molten.

Michigan State lost to Penn State 28-10 at home Saturday, marking their seventh straight defeat and officially eliminating the Spartans from bowl eligibility. That’s four consecutive seasons without a bowl game and an 0-7 Big Ten record that has Smith at 8-12 overall since arriving from Oregon State.

The numbers: Michigan State owes Smith approximately $32-33 million if they fire him now. That’s one of the most expensive buyouts in the Big Ten. However, the AD and university president, both hired after Smith arrived, have no strong ties to him and are facing mounting pressure to act.

National media outlets universally place Smith at the top of coaching hot seat lists. Fan sentiment has turned nearly uniform in calling for a change. Replacement candidate discussions are already widespread.

Smith will almost certainly coach Michigan State’s final two games, but barring a miracle turnaround, he’s coaching for his next job, not this one.

2. Mike Locksley – Maryland Terrapins (4-6, 1-6 Big Ten)

Mike Locksley just got saved by the very problem that’s destroying college football programs: money.

Maryland announced Sunday that Locksley will return for 2026 despite a six-game losing streak that dropped the Terrapins from 4-0 to 4-6. It’s the second straight season with only one Big Ten win and the 11th consecutive losing season in conference play. Locksley is now 37-47 overall at Maryland and 17-46 in Big Ten games since 2019.

Athletic Director Jim Smith made the decision based on financial reality. Maryland’s athletic department has lost $32.7 million over the past five years. Locksley’s buyout would be $13.4 million. Smith told ESPN the school is “better off pouring already-spent money into building the roster than into bringing in a new coaching staff.”

Translation: We can’t afford to fire him.

The announcement came after “Fire Locksley” chants broke out in the student section during the Indiana game. Locksley’s pressure doesn’t disappear just because he’s surviving 2025. He’s coaching on borrowed time in 2026, and everyone knows it.

3. Shane Beamer – South Carolina Gamecocks (3-7, 1-7 SEC)

Shane Beamer just orchestrated the most spectacular coaching collapse of the 2025 season.

Saturday at Texas A&M, South Carolina led 30-3 at halftime. Then came the second half. Texas A&M scored 28 unanswered points. South Carolina was shut out and managed just 76 total yards after halftime. Final score: 31-30, Aggies. It was the largest comeback in Texas A&M program history.

ESPN’s Paul Finebaum summed it up perfectly: “Shane Beamer right now just looks like a loser.”

South Carolina is now 3-7 and guaranteed a losing season. They’ve lost five straight SEC games and will miss a bowl game for the first time under Beamer. “Fire Beamer” chants have replaced the cheers.

Here’s the financial nightmare: South Carolina extended Beamer through 2030 less than a year ago. His buyout is approximately $27.9 million. Athletic Director Jeremiah Donati is now stuck with one of college football’s most expensive mistakes.

This type of historic collapse changes everything. It’s not just that they lost. It’s HOW they lost.

4. Mike Norvell – Florida State Seminoles (5-5, 2-5 ACC)

Mike Norvell just won a game and it doesn’t matter.

Florida State beat Virginia Tech 34-14 Saturday to improve to 5-5, but the win came against a 3-7 Hokies team that’s almost as bad as the Seminoles. Since being controversially left out of the 2023 College Football Playoff at 13-0, Florida State is 7-15 overall and 2-12 in ACC play.

Athletic Director Michael Alford announced in October that Norvell would remain through the end of 2025, but promised a “comprehensive assessment” after the season. Translation: Norvell is coaching his final games at Florida State.

Here’s why the delay: Money. Norvell’s buyout is approximately $53.3 million after this season. It’s the second-largest buyout in college football history.

Norvell has tried to project confidence, delivering a six-minute “championship expectation” rant recently. The problem is the results. FSU is winless on the road this season and hasn’t won a road game since November 2023.

5. Derek Mason – Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders (2-8, 1-5 Conference USA)

Derek Mason took a sabbatical from coaching after the 2022 season to rest, reflect, and spend time with family.

He should have stayed on sabbatical.

Mason is in his second season at Middle Tennessee and the program has regressed under his leadership. The Blue Raiders went 3-9 in his first year, and they’re currently 2-8 in 2025. That’s 5-17 overall and 3-11 in conference play across two seasons.

Mason replaced Rick Stockstill, who went 113-111 over 18 seasons with 10 bowl appearances. Mason hasn’t come close to matching that standard. Middle Tennessee’s two wins this season came against FCS opponents. Every FBS opponent has beaten them, often badly.

The defense, which should be Mason’s calling card, ranks among the worst in all of college football. Mason’s overall head coaching record is now 30-64 across eight years. At some point, MTSU has to ask if this experiment is worth continuing.

6. Dave Aranda – Baylor Bears (5-5, 3-4 Big 12)

Dave Aranda isn’t getting fired this season, but not for the reasons you’d hope.

After Saturday’s 55-28 home humiliation against Utah, Aranda sits at 5-5 overall and desperately needs one win in the final two games to make a bowl. His defense ranks second-worst in the Big 12 in both scoring and rush defense. For a defensive specialist hired specifically for his defensive expertise, that’s a damning indictment.

Here’s the number that matters most: 21-25. That’s Aranda’s record at Baylor with his own recruits, excluding the COVID season and the 2021 championship season built on Matt Rhule’s inherited roster.

However, Aranda is still employed because athletic director Mack Rhoades took a leave of absence November 12 amid an ongoing investigation. Interim ADs don’t make coaching changes of this magnitude.

It’s not merit. It’s institutional paralysis.

7. Luke Fickell – Wisconsin Badgers (5-6, 3-5 Big Ten)

Luke Fickell went from College Football Playoff coach to coaching for his job in three years.

After leading Cincinnati to the CFP in 2021, Fickell was hired by Wisconsin with enormous expectations. Instead, Wisconsin has regressed. Fickell is now 16-19 overall at Wisconsin and 9-15 in Big Ten play. His teams have produced losing records in two of three full seasons.

The Badgers went scoreless in back-to-back games against Iowa and Ohio State earlier this season, marking the first time that has happened since 1977. Wisconsin hasn’t won a Big Ten home game in over a calendar year.

Here’s the ironic twist: Fickell just received a contract extension through 2032 and a public vote of confidence from AD Chris McIntosh. His buyout is estimated to be around $27.5 million.

Wisconsin is on track for its second straight losing season after 22 consecutive bowl appearances. Fickell gets 2026 to prove he can turn it around, but the pressure will be immense from Day One.

8. Bill Belichick – North Carolina Tar Heels (4-6, 2-4 ACC)

The greatest football coach in history is learning that college football is a different game.

Bill Belichick, winner of six Super Bowls with the Patriots, arrived at North Carolina with enormous fanfare. Instead, he’s 4-6 overall and 0-5 against Power Four opponents. UNC’s losses weren’t just defeats. They were blowouts that exposed fundamental problems with Belichick’s transition to college football.

“It’s an unstructured mess,” a source told WRAL News in October. Reports emerged that Belichick hadn’t “had a conversation with most of the guys on defense.” The Tar Heels rank last in the ACC in total offense and scoring.

At 72 years old, in his first college job ever, Belichick is discovering that recruiting 18-year-olds, managing NIL, and coaching the portal era requires skills he never needed in the NFL.

UNC’s administration sold fans on Belichick, leading them to the playoffs. Instead, they’re fighting for bowl eligibility and dealing with reports of organizational chaos.

9. Justin Wilcox – California Golden Bears (6-4, 3-3 ACC)

Justin Wilcox sits at 6-4 overall and 3-3 in ACC play, a respectable first season navigating conference realignment.

But the pressure has never been higher.

Fan sentiment has turned decisively against Wilcox, with widespread calls for his dismissal dominating the Cal community. This isn’t about the record. It’s about nine years of incremental progress that never accumulates into sustained success.

Then there’s Ron Rivera. Cal’s new General Manager has given Wilcox conditional support, stating that “another victory or two” in the final stretch will be key in determining his future. That’s not a vote of confidence. That’s measured pressure from above.

When your GM says your fate depends on winning one or two games in a 6-4 season, you’re coaching under scrutiny from fans who’ve already moved on and leadership that’s watching closely.

10. Mark Stoops – Kentucky Wildcats (5-5, 2-5 SEC)

Mark Stoops just beat Tennessee Tech 42-10 Saturday, extending Kentucky’s winning streak to four games.

And his pressure level hasn’t budged an inch.

The win over an FCS opponent was expected, and while Stoops praised “this team’s attitude and effort,” beating Tennessee Tech doesn’t change the fundamental calculus around his job security. Fan sentiment remains sharply divided.

What protects Stoops isn’t the four-game winning streak. It’s the $40.5 million buyout that must be paid in full within 60 days if he’s fired. After critical wins at Auburn and over Florida, AD Mitch Barnhart voiced full support, saying Kentucky is “taking steps” back up the mountain.

Kentucky sits one win away from bowl eligibility with two games remaining. The pressure at #10 reflects this: the four-game streak has eased the immediate crisis, but beating an FCS team doesn’t resolve long-term doubts.

WANT TO SEE WHERE YOUR COACH RANKS?

The top 10 are racing against the clock.

But coaching pressure doesn’t stop at #10. A $40.5 million buyout protects Mark Stoops (#10) despite 13 years of middling results. Justin Wilcox (#9) is 6-4 but facing conditional support from his GM. Luke Fickell (#7) just got extended through 2032 despite losing 9 of his last 14 games.

Every FBS coach is ranked based on actual pressure, not speculation about who might be fired.

Subscribers to our newsletter get the full story. Each week, you’ll receive comprehensive profiles of all the top 10 coaches with contract details, buyout numbers, replacement candidates, and insider analysis you won’t find anywhere else. Additionally, our weekly Hot Seat Deep Dive provides an in-depth examination of one coach’s situation. This week: Dave Aranda at Baylor – how administrative chaos became a coaching lifeline, and why institutional paralysis might be the only thing keeping him employed.

Subscribe here to get the complete analysis delivered to your inbox every week.

Want to know where your coach stands? View rankings of all 136 FBS coaches.

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Week 12 Coaches Hot Seat Rankings

Mark Haines on November 10, 2025

Week 11 exposed the pretenders. Week 12 eliminates them. This is the part of the season where athletic directors stop debating and start deciding. Where donor patience either holds or shatters entirely. Where recruits make final judgments about which programs are ascending and which are circling the drain. The “we’re close to turning the corner” narrative that might have worked in October doesn’t survive November. By Week 12, you either have tangible proof of progress or you’re staring at an offseason coaching search. Buyout conversations move from theoretical to tactical. Board meetings shift from “let’s give him more time” to “what’s our exit strategy?” Week 12 separates the coaches who survive the season from those who won’t make it to December. And for these ten coaches? The clock is ticking louder than ever.

1. Jonathan Smith, Michigan State

Jonathan Smith remains at #1, and the situation in East Lansing has moved from crisis to terminal. The $33M+ buyout that once seemed prohibitive is now just a number that major donors are actively working to fund. His 8-13 record isn’t just bad, it’s a complete program collapse that’s destroying Michigan State’s identity. New AD J Batt inherited this disaster and faces mounting pressure to act. Recruiting has gone from struggling to nonexistent, with elite prospects avoiding East Lansing entirely. The fan base has moved past anger into total apathy, which is the real death sentence. The question isn’t whether Smith gets fired, it’s when.

2. Mike Locksley, Maryland

Mike Locksley holds at #2, but that strong 2025 recruiting class that was his lifeline is starting to crack. Commits are taking visits elsewhere, and the locker room remains completely fractured. His 37-46 overall record tells the story of six years without real progress in the Big Ten. Fourth quarter collapses continue, and fans have stopped showing up expecting anything different. Donor support has evaporated completely, with major boosters now openly discussing replacement options. The administration’s hesitation is about the competitive coaching market, not confidence in Locksley. One more collapse and it’s over.

3. Mike Norvell, Florida State

Mike Norvell stays at #3, still clinging to the thin margin of player support that’s kept him employed. The $55M+ buyout remains the primary obstacle, but FSU is already planning for 2026 when it becomes more manageable. His 37-32 record would be fine elsewhere, but FSU expects championships, not mediocrity. Fan skepticism continues to grow as the season progresses. That Wake Forest win bought time, but not much. Another embarrassing loss puts him right back at #1.

4. Derek Mason, Middle Tennessee

Derek Mason enters the Top 10 at #4 with a catastrophic 4-17 record over two seasons. This is complete program collapse, not a rebuilding project. His SEC pedigree from Vanderbilt hasn’t translated, and the offense ranks near the bottom nationally. Donor support is gone, attendance at Floyd Stadium is embarrassing, and recruiting is nonexistent. Elite Conference USA prospects are choosing other programs because nobody wants to commit to obvious instability. The administration is trapped between Mason’s contract and the reality that every game does more damage. This isn’t a hot seat, it’s a death watch.

5. Luke Fickell, Wisconsin

Luke Fickell drops to #5, but the heat hasn’t decreased at all. All the goodwill from Cincinnati is completely gone after a 16-19 start in Madison. Wisconsin fans are openly questioning whether hiring Fickell was a massive mistake. The offense looks lost, the defense looks confused, and the administration’s demands for “foundational change” are ultimatums, not suggestions. Recruiting has flatlined, with elite Midwest prospects now choosing programs like Iowa and Minnesota over Wisconsin. Donors are calculating buyout scenarios and floating replacement names. His $7.625M salary looked smart when everyone expected success. Now it looks like an expensive anchor.

6. Justin Wilcox, California

Justin Wilcox remains at #6 as Cal’s situation reaches existential crisis levels. Nine years and a 48-54 record, with the ACC move exposing every weakness instead of creating opportunities. Fourth quarter collapses define the program now, and fans plan around expecting defeat. The real crisis is financial, donors have completely checked out and stopped funding the program. Recruiting has stagnated to the point where Cal loses battles to Mountain West schools. The administration isn’t asking whether to fire Wilcox anymore. They’re asking bigger questions about whether Cal football at this level is sustainable. That’s far more dangerous.

7. Bill Belichick, North Carolina

Bill Belichick at #7 represents the most stunning collapse of expectations in college football. Six Super Bowl rings have produced a 4-5 record that has fans mocking a hire they celebrated months ago. One Power Four win, uncertain bowl eligibility, and a coaching style built for NFL professionals that doesn’t work with teenagers. Elite recruits visit once and immediately look elsewhere. His $10M salary looked brilliant when everyone expected immediate success, now it prevents necessary program investments. The administration is losing patience and credibility with donors who expected a revolution. Every game does more recruiting damage. The experiment is failing in real time.

8. Shane Beamer, South Carolina

Shane Beamer drops to #8 after mid-season coordinator firings that were pure desperation. His 32-28 record looks fine until you remember South Carolina expects SEC competitiveness, not fighting for bowl eligibility. The firings bought time but fixed nothing fundamental. Bowl eligibility has moved from goal to survival requirement, the minimum needed to keep his job. Booster support is now conditional, demanding actual results instead of energy and South Carolina ties. Recruiting is suffering as elite prospects watch the chaos and commit elsewhere. The administration has loaded the gun. Anything less than a bowl game and he’s done.

9. Dave Aranda, Baylor

Dave Aranda falls to #9, and the shine from that 2021 Big 12 Championship has completely worn off. His 36-34 record through six seasons isn’t disastrous, it’s just deeply uninspiring for a program that expects more. Aranda wins just enough games to avoid the hot seat entirely, but never enough to generate real momentum or championship buzz. The fan base has moved from “trust the process” to “what exactly is the process?” as another mediocre season unfolds. Recruiting has slowed as elite Texas prospects look for programs with clearer upward trajectories. Aranda’s defensive expertise was supposed to be the foundation for sustained success, but it hasn’t translated into consistent winning. The remaining games will determine whether Baylor sees enough to commit long-term or starts exploring other options.

10. Mark Stoops, Kentucky

Mark Stoops barely holds #10 after one Auburn win bought temporary relief from what felt like inevitable disaster. His 81-78 record through 13 seasons is both Kentucky’s most successful era ever and clear evidence of a program that’s hit its ceiling. Multi-year SEC losing streaks and repeated blowouts have created frustration throughout the program. The real problem? Kentucky would owe Stoops nearly $38 million if they fired him after this season, and the contract requires the full amount be paid within 60 days. That’s not just expensive, it’s functionally impossible for Kentucky’s athletic budget. Stoops is essentially untouchable no matter how the season ends. The remaining games aren’t about his job security, they’re about whether another year of known limitations is acceptable. Thirteen years of evidence suggests he’s taken Kentucky as far as he can.

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Week 11 – Coaches Hot Seat Rankings

Mark Haines on November 4, 2025

Week 11 is where the pretenders get exposed.

This is the part of the season where the rubber meets the road. Where your team and your staff prove they’ve “got it” – or don’t. The early-season excuses are gone. The “we’re still figuring things out” narrative doesn’t fly anymore. By Week 11, you either have a culture that wins close games, a roster that believes in the system, and donors who are writing checks – or you’re watching your career circle the drain in real-time. This is where coaches earn their next contract or start quietly updating their resumes. This is where athletic directors stop taking “we’ll turn it around” phone calls and start having very different conversations. Week 11 separates the programs that are building something real from those that are just delaying the inevitable. And for these ten coaches? We break each situation down below:

1. Jonathan Smith, Michigan State

Jonathan Smith is sitting on a $33M-$37M buyout that’s paid out over 62 monthly installments – the kind of number that makes firing him financially painful but not impossible. The problem? He’s already lost his fan base after humiliating losses, recruiting is cratering, and donors are hesitant to continue funding a sinking ship. New AD J Batt inherited this mess and now faces a massive decision to either force Smith to turn it around immediately or mobilize donors to eat the buyout and start over. Michigan State isn’t just losing games – they’re losing their identity. Every day Smith remains in place is another day that elite recruits look elsewhere.

2. Mike Locksley, Maryland

Mike Locksley has lost the locker room, and everyone knows it. NIL chaos has players checked out, fourth-quarter collapses have become routine, and October was an unmitigated disaster that had fans chanting for his firing in the stadium. His seat is scorching, #2 on the hot seat rankings, but he’s got one lifeline: a legitimately strong 2025 recruiting class that’s making the administration hesitate before pulling the trigger. The job market is also flooded with high-profile openings, which might give him a reprieve simply because Maryland doesn’t want to get into a bidding war and strike out. But make no mistake: donor support is evaporating, administration confidence is gone, and Locksley is one more ugly loss away from a Sunday morning firing.

3. Mike Norvell, Florida State

Mike Norvell dropped from #1 to #3 on the hot seat after a win over Wake Forest and enough player support to give the administration cover to hesitate on his $55M+ buyout. But dropping two spots isn’t a victory – it’s a temporary reprieve. He barely survived recent board meetings where his future was debated in real-time, boosters are in open revolt, and fan skepticism is at an all-time high. Behind closed doors, FSU is already planning for 2026 when that buyout becomes more manageable. Questions about fit, contract structure, and whether this marriage ever made sense continue to linger. Norvell bought himself time, but one more blowout loss and he’s right back at #1.

4. Luke Fickell, Wisconsin

Luke Fickell is torching every ounce of goodwill he built at Cincinnati, and it’s happening fast. Multiple blowout losses and a stagnant offense have Wisconsin fans throwing remotes through their TVs, while recruiting momentum has completely flatlined. The administration isn’t just disappointed, they’re demanding foundational change, the kind of language that means “fix this NOW or we’re moving on.” Recent staff decisions have only accelerated skepticism, and fan patience has completely evaporated, with social media ablaze and calling for a reset. The only thing keeping Fickell employed is his buyout, but donors are starting to ask the question every coach dreads: “How much would it actually cost to start over?” One more embarrassing loss, and that buyout begins looking like a bargain.

5. Justin Wilcox, California

Justin Wilcox has mastered the art of losing games in the fourth quarter, and Cal fans have moved past frustration into full acceptance mode. Navigating conference realignment chaos while failing to elevate recruiting has left the program stagnant at a time when adaptation is everything. The death knell? Donors have checked out completely; they’ve stopped writing checks, stopped believing in the vision, and started asking pointed questions about ROI. Doubts about future competitiveness aren’t whispers anymore; they’re loud conversations in booster meetings. Wilcox isn’t just on shaky ground – he’s standing on a fault line, and everyone is waiting for the earthquake.

6. Bill Belichick, North Carolina

Bill Belichick at North Carolina was supposed to be a revolution with six Super Bowl rings, transforming college football. Instead, it’s looking like a very expensive mistake. One Power Four win. Bowl eligibility hanging by a thread. And a coaching style built for NFL veterans that doesn’t translate to 18-year-olds who need recruiting, not drafting. The administration is losing patience fast because elite prospects are looking at UNC and seeing chaos, not a championship pedigree. Recruiting hasn’t improved; it has actually gotten worse. The contract details are murky but undoubtedly expensive, the kind of money that looked brilliant when everyone thought he’d win immediately and catastrophic now that he’s not. The experiment is failing, and everyone is watching to see how quickly UNC pulls the plug.

7. Shane Beamer, South Carolina

Shane Beamer fired his offensive coordinator and offensive line coach mid-season, a desperate move that screams “I’m fighting for my life.” And it might not be enough. Insiders are saying it plainly: unless South Carolina rallies for bowl eligibility, Beamer is done. Booster support is crumbling fast, with the money people who once championed his energy and “South Carolina guy” credentials now demanding answers about results. Pressure is coming from everywhere—fans, administration, donors—all pointing to the same conclusion: the current vision isn’t working. Recruiting is getting massacred by staff instability, because elite prospects don’t commit to programs where coaches are getting fired mid-season and the head coach’s future is a weekly radio debate. Beamer bought himself time with those firings, but bowl eligibility isn’t just a goal anymore—it’s a job requirement.

8. Tim Beck, Coastal Carolina

Tim Beck still has the backing of Coastal Carolina’s administration, thanks to recent bowl appearances, but that institutional patience has an expiration date that’s approaching quickly. Competitive culture is struggling in a Sun Belt where parity is real, and roster retention has become a nightmare in the portal era. Donors aren’t panicking yet, they’re not calling for his head yet, but they’re watching, whispering, and starting to ask the question every coach dreads: “What happens if we miss a bowl game this year?” That’s the line in the sand. Miss the postseason and the conversation changes overnight from “let’s give him more time” to “maybe it’s time for a new direction.” Beck has a lifeline, but it’s fraying fast.

9. Dave Aranda, Baylor

Dave Aranda’s shine has completely worn off at Baylor, and the 2021 Big 12 Championship feels like ancient history. A mediocre record, zero championship buzz, and a fan base that has moved from “trust the process” to “what exactly IS the process?” has the administration and boosters doing more than watching—they’re calculating buyout logistics. That’s not hot seat attention; that’s death row. The donor base is eroding, checking out, and wondering if their money is being invested wisely. Recruiting momentum is slowing to a crawl because elite prospects can smell uncertainty from a mile away. Aranda needs a strong finish, not just bowl eligibility, but something that reminds people why Baylor hired him in the first place. Because right now? Nobody remembers, and that’s the most dangerous position any coach can be in.

10. Mark Stoops, Kentucky

Mark Stoops was this close to being fired before a dramatic win at Auburn bought him a reprieve, but one victory doesn’t erase a multi-year SEC losing streak. Years of being demolished by conference opponents have left Kentucky feeling more like a basketball school’s side project than a legitimate SEC program, and the administration has had legitimate conversations about buyout numbers and replacement candidates. The buyout is sizeable but not insurmountable, meaning if things go south again, Kentucky can afford to move on. Stoops needs two things immediately: roster confidence (players who believe they can compete in the SEC) and donor confidence (boosters who believe their money isn’t being wasted). Both are shaky right now. The remaining games aren’t just about bowl eligibility; they’re about survival, and everyone is watching.

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Two Hot Seat Coaches Meet At Auburn: One Will Buy Time, The Other Runs Out Of Runway

Mark Haines on October 30, 2025

This isn’t just another SEC game.

This is a referendum on two coaches fighting for their jobs. Mark Stoops sits at #16 on the Coaches Hot Seat rankings (and trending in the wrong direction). Hugh Freeze checks in at #5, which means every single game is an audition for next season.

Auburn hosts Kentucky at Jordan-Hare Stadium, and one of these coaches is going to walk away with some much-needed breathing room. The other? He’s going to feel the heat cranking up to uncomfortable levels. One coach survives this weekend. The other watches his seat get hotter.

Let me break down why this game matters more than the talking heads on ESPN will tell you.

The Stakes Are Ridiculous

Mark Stoops has one of the biggest buyouts in college football history.

Kentucky isn’t just paying him to be mediocre – they’re paying him an insane amount of money they can’t afford to get out of. And what has he delivered in 2025? An 0-5 record in SEC play. Zero wins against conference opponents.

That’s a pattern, not a slump

Meanwhile, Hugh Freeze is sitting at #5 on the hot seat, and Auburn fans are already questioning whether he’s the answer. The Tigers are 1-4 in SEC play, which isn’t great, but it’s also not catastrophic. A win against Kentucky doesn’t just improve his record; it moves him down the rankings and buys him real equity with the boosters.

This is coaching survival mode, and both guys know it.

Let’s Talk Numbers (Because They Don’t Lie)

If you’re a bettor or just someone who likes to understand how football works, the stats tell you everything you need to know.

Kentucky’s offense is barely functional against SEC defenses:

  • 24.1 points per game overall, but only 19.4 against SEC opponents
  • Just 121.6 rushing yards per game in SEC play (their ground game gets completely shut down)
  • When you can’t run, you become one-dimensional, and when you’re one-dimensional against good defenses, you lose

Auburn’s defense is where they have Kentucky beat:

  • Just 21.1 points allowed per game
  • Best run defense in this matchup, opponents average only 84.1 rushing yards
  • Kentucky’s weakness meets Auburn’s strength and that’s the ballgame

But here’s where it gets interesting:

Auburn’s offense isn’t exactly lighting the world on fire either. They’re balanced, 170 passing yards, 170 rushing yards per game. But in SEC play, those numbers crater. The difference? Auburn doesn’t turn the ball over. They average just 0.5 turnovers per game compared to Kentucky’s 1.6.

In close games, that margin is everything.

The Matchup That Decides Everything

Here’s the reality:

Kentucky cannot run the ball against Auburn’s front seven. That’s not opinion, that’s what the numbers tell us. When Kentucky is forced to throw on every down, their offensive line breaks down, their quarterback gets pressured, and the whole operation falls apart.

Could Kentucky exploit Auburn’s secondary?

Auburn’s been vulnerable through the air, they’re allowing 234.4 passing yards per game. But Kentucky hasn’t shown the ability to exploit that kind of weakness all season. Their passing game improves against MAC teams and collapses against SEC defenses.

There’s no reason to believe this week will be different.

By the Numbers: Complete Matchup Breakdown

If you want to bet this game, or understand who actually has the advantage, here’s the tale of the tape:

Auburn holds decisive advantages in the categories that matter most.

The X-Factor You’re Not Thinking About

Home-field advantage matters.

Auburn’s home splits show they gain approximately 20 yards and 4 points per game at Jordan-Hare Stadium. Kentucky is 0-2 on the road this season. They can’t win away from Lexington. The math is simple: Auburn plays better at home, and Kentucky falls apart on the road.

Here’s what that means for this game:

Auburn’s offensive line will control the line of scrimmage against Kentucky’s weak front seven. The Tigers will run the ball down Kentucky’s throat in the fourth quarter when the Wildcats’ defense is gassed. Kentucky won’t be able to match that physicality. They haven’t been able to all season.

This is where games are won and lost.

The Bottom Line

Auburn wins by 7-10 points.

Predicted score: Auburn 27, Kentucky 17

This isn’t rocket science. Auburn’s run defense shuts down Kentucky’s already-struggling ground game. Kentucky becomes one-dimensional. Auburn’s balanced offense exploits a weak Kentucky defense. The Tigers control time of possession and wear down the Wildcats in the second half.

The coaching implications are massive:

Hugh Freeze gets a much-needed win and some breathing room on the hot seat. Mark Stoops watches his seat get even hotter as Kentucky falls to 0-6 in SEC play. One coach buys himself time. The other runs out of runway.

For Kentucky to pull off the upset, they’d need:

  • Their passing game to suddenly become elite
  • Auburn to commit multiple turnovers
  • A complete defensive transformation

None of those things is happening.

The Bigger Picture

This is what college football has become in 2025.

Every game is an evaluation. Every loss adds weight to the hot seat. Coaches like Mark Stoops and Hugh Freeze aren’t just competing against each other—they’re competing against impossible expectations, impatient boosters, and the reality that one bad season can end a career.

Kentucky vs Auburn isn’t just about which team wins—it’s about which coach survives. And when you look at the numbers, Auburn has every statistical advantage. The Tigers should win this game comfortably.

Auburn 27, Kentucky 17.

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Brian Kelly Is Out at LSU—And the Coaching Carousel Just Got Absolutely Insane

Mark Haines on October 27, 2025

The coaching carousel just claimed its biggest name yet.

Brian Kelly is out at LSU. Fired. Done. Less than 24 hours after a humiliating 49-25 home loss to Texas A&M—after running into the locker room while students chanted “Fire Kelly,” after being forced to come back out and sing the alma mater with his players—LSU finally pulled the trigger. But this wasn’t a simple firing. This was a full-blown confrontation that spiraled out of control.

Here’s what happened.

The Dramatic Showdown That Ended It All

Sunday afternoon, according to The Athletic’s Bruce Feldman and Ralph D. Russo.

Brian Kelly and athletic director Scott Woodward meet. Woodward wants staff changes. Specifically, he wants Kelly to fire offensive coordinator Joe Sloan. LSU’s offense ranks dead last in the SEC in rushing. Something has to give. Kelly fires back. If we’re making staff changes, he says, I want to make different changes. Ones Woodward isn’t comfortable with.

Things get tense.

The conversation escalates. Kelly pushes back hard against his boss. Threats about negotiating Kelly’s $53 million buyout come up. But there’s a question: will the LSU Board of Supervisors even give Woodward the authority to do that?

By Sunday night, it’s over.

Kelly is out. A team meeting is called for 8 p.m. Associate head coach Frank Wilson is named interim head coach. Tight ends coach Alex Atkins will take over play-calling duties. And on Monday morning, LSU announces they’ve fired Sloan anyway. “When Coach Kelly arrived at LSU four years ago, we had high hopes that he would lead us to multiple SEC and national championships during his time in Baton Rouge,” Woodward said in the release. “Ultimately, the success at the level that LSU demands simply did not materialize.”

Translation: You didn’t win enough.

The Wildest Coaching Carousel Year in Recent Memory

But here’s the thing: Kelly isn’t the only one.

This has been one of the most chaotic coaching carousel seasons in years. Jobs are opening everywhere:

  • Penn State
  • LSU
  • Florida
  • Oklahoma State
  • Arkansas
  • Virginia Tech
  • UCLA
  • Stanford

And that’s just so far.

Florida State and Oklahoma could be next. Maybe others. The competition for top candidates is going to be insane. Top-tier schools like Florida, LSU, and Penn State are in their own tier—massive resources, elite NIL, phenomenal facilities. But even they’re going to have to pay up. Big time.

Agents are salivating.

Salaries are about to get wildly inflated. And how many of these coaches will actually complete their contracts without needing to be bought out? History says not many. But here’s the question nobody wants to ask: Who are these schools actually going to hire?

And that leads to an even more uncomfortable question for programs down the ladder.

If You’re Cal (Or Nevada, Or Louisiana Tech), What Do You Do?

Let’s talk about the schools further down the food chain for a second.

If you’re Cal, what do you do? Justin Wilcox has been there for nine years. No winning seasons since 2019. The program is stuck in mediocrity. Do you fire him and jump into this insane market where every coach’s price just tripled? Do you keep investing in a guy who hasn’t delivered? If you’re Nevada, do you pay the $2.7 million buyout for Jeff Choate and try to compete with Penn State and LSU for the same candidate pool? If you’re Louisiana Tech, do you cut ties with Sonny Cumbie and hope you can find someone better in a market that’s about to be picked clean?

The reality is brutal.

The top jobs are going to snap up the top candidates. Everyone else will be fighting over the scraps. Or they’re going to have to roll the dice on assistant coaches and hope they hit on the next Cignetti. Schools like Vanderbilt, Missouri, Tulane, North Texas, Memphis, Wake Forest, and Boise State have coaches who are prime poaching targets. And they won’t have the money to keep them if the big boys come calling.

It’s a bad year to be a mid-tier program with an up-and-coming coach.

So, Who Is LSU Going to Get That’s Better Than Brian Kelly?

Which brings us back to the biggest question of all.

Think about Kelly’s résumé for a second:

  • Two Division II national championships
  • Took Cincinnati to 11-1 and a top-4 finish
  • Took Notre Dame to two national championship games
  • Ten top-25 finishes at Notre Dame, half of them in the top 10
  • Won 10 games in each of his first two seasons at LSU with top-15 finishes
  • Won 9 games last year
  • On pace for 8 wins this year

That’s not a bad coach.

That’s an excellent coach who didn’t meet LSU’s sky-high expectations. So who’s the upgrade? The names being thrown around: Lane Kiffin, Marcus Freeman, Brent Key, Eli Drinkwitz, Jon Sumrall. Are those guys sure things? Are they going to be infinitely better than Kelly?

Nobody knows.

LSU is about to spend $100 million (or more) buying out Kelly and his staff, then funding a new coaching staff, to get someone who might be better. It’s a massive gamble. Here’s the reality: You’re going to spend probably $100M buying out your previous coaching staff and funding your new one to get someone that isn’t necessarily a sure thing. It’s not like Brian Kelly was going 4-8.

And here’s the kicker.

Unless LSU is bringing back Nick Saban, Chris Petersen, or Urban Meyer from retirement, there isn’t a candidate out there who’s a sure thing. Lane Kiffin is going to make a fortune – either from Ole Miss giving him a massive raise to stay, or from one of these desperate schools throwing ridiculous money at him. Brian Kelly won’t be out of work long. Neither will James Franklin, who Penn State moved on from. They’re outstanding coaches. The problem is they weren’t great enough for programs with championship-or-bust expectations.

And that’s the new reality of college football.

What’s Next?

The carousel is spinning.

Fast. More jobs will open. More coaches will get massive paydays. More schools will regret the contracts they’re about to hand out. In about four years, a lot of these fan bases are going to be asking: “Why did we give him that contract?!”

But right now?

It’s chaos. And LSU is right in the middle of it.

Stay tuned.

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Kentucky Has Faced The SEC’s 9th-Toughest Schedule This Season. Here’s Why Their 2-4 Record And 16.7 Points Per Game Against Quality Defenses Means Tennessee Wins By 20+ On Saturday

Mark Haines on October 24, 2025

Here’s what nobody’s talking about:

Kentucky has faced one of the most brutal schedules in college football this season. They’ve gone toe-to-toe with Georgia, Texas, and Ole Miss—all top-25 programs with elite defenses. And despite sitting at 2-4, they took Texas to overtime, losing 16-13, a game that showed real defensive grit. On paper, this looks like a team tested by fire and capable of giving Tennessee problems.

But here’s the problem.

Their offense cannot score. Against Power Five competition, Kentucky averages just 16.7 points per game. Their wins came against MAC opponents Toledo and Eastern Michigan—teams that made them look competent. Strip those away, and you’re staring at an offense that can’t sustain drives, can’t convert third downs, and can’t throw touchdowns.

And when Tennessee’s explosive attack takes the field on Saturday, that weakness gets exposed.

The Numbers Don’t Lie (Even When You Adjust For Competition)

Let’s cut through the noise and look at what actually matters.

Tennessee averages 511 yards per game. Kentucky averages 342. But you might say, “Tennessee played East Tennessee State and UAB—those stats are inflated.” Fair point. So let’s adjust for competition and see if the gap closes or widens.

Here’s what happens when you filter the data:

  • Tennessee vs Power Five opponents: 470 yards per game, 6.4 yards per play
  • Tennessee vs Georgia (No. 6): 496 yards, 41 points in overtime loss
  • Kentucky vs Power Five opponents: 314 yards per game, 4.5 yards per play
  • Kentucky vs Top-50 defenses: 16.7 points per game

Even after removing the cupcakes, Tennessee still ranks as an elite offense. They dropped 496 yards on Georgia—one of the nation’s best defenses—and pushed them to overtime. Meanwhile, Kentucky’s offense craters against quality competition.

The gap isn’t closing. It’s widening.

Kentucky’s Offense Has One Fatal Flaw

They can’t convert third downs.

With a 39% third-down conversion rate, Kentucky’s offense sputters every time they face third-and-medium. They average 0.7 passing touchdowns per game—that’s less than one per game—and their quarterback play has been inconsistent at best. Against SEC defenses, they’ve managed just 314 yards and 16.7 points per game.

Here’s what that means in real terms:

  • Kentucky goes three-and-out repeatedly
  • Their defense faces 70+ plays from Tennessee
  • By the third quarter, their defense is gassed
  • Tennessee pulls away in the second half

You can have the best defense in the world, but if you can’t score points, you can’t win football games.

Tennessee’s Tempo Is Going To Break Kentucky’s Defense

Here’s where this game gets decided.

Tennessee runs 75 plays per game—one of the fastest tempo offenses in the SEC. They come out firing with quick-strike drives, play-action deep shots, and an offensive line that creates lanes for their running backs. Kentucky’s defense has been respectable this season, holding opponents to 365 yards per game and forcing field goals in the red zone.

But sustained tempo breaks defenses.

By the third quarter, Tennessee’s depth shows. Kentucky’s defensive backs are chasing receivers on seam routes. Their linebackers are gassed from covering slot receivers. And Tennessee’s offensive line starts imposing its will. We’ve seen this movie before with Kentucky—they hang in for a half, then get blown out in the second half.

When you can’t score points, you can’t afford to let the other team dictate tempo.

The Georgia Game Told Us Everything We Needed To Know

Both teams played Georgia this season.

Let’s compare the results:

  • Tennessee vs Georgia: Lost 44-41 in overtime, 496 yards, 41 points
  • Kentucky vs Georgia: Lost 35-14, 270 yards, 14 points

That’s a 226-yard difference in offensive production against the same elite defense. Tennessee took one of the nation’s best teams to overtime in a game they arguably should’ve won. Kentucky got boat-raced at home.

If that doesn’t tell you everything about the offensive gap, nothing will.

The 3 X-Factors That Will Decide This Game

Let’s break down the key matchups.

1. Can Kentucky Convert Third Downs?

Kentucky’s offense lives and dies on third down. With a 39% conversion rate and Tennessee’s aggressive blitz packages coming off the edge, this could get ugly fast. If Kentucky can’t sustain drives, their defense faces 12-14 possessions.

That’s too many.

2. Red Zone Execution

Kentucky’s defense has been elite at limiting passing touchdowns—just 0.5 per game allowed. They force teams to kick field goals. But Tennessee’s balanced attack gives them multiple ways to score inside the 20. Touchdowns vs field goals will determine if this is a close game or a blowout.

Early touchdown conversions blow this game open by halftime.

3. Turnovers

This is Kentucky’s only path to an upset. If they can force 2-3 turnovers and create short fields, maybe—MAYBE—their limited offense can cobble together 20-24 points. But Tennessee’s been relatively careful with the ball (1.4 turnovers per game), and Kentucky isn’t exactly a ballhawking defense.

Betting on Kentucky to win the turnover battle by +2? That’s wishful thinking.

What Kentucky Needs To Do (Spoiler: It Won’t Be Enough)

Let’s game this out.

For Kentucky to pull off the upset, they need:

  • Win the turnover battle by +2 or more
  • Convert 50%+ of third downs (well above their season average)
  • Hold Tennessee under 400 total yards
  • Make every field goal attempt (they’re shooting 69% this season)

Even if Kentucky does ALL of those things, they still need to score 24+ points to have a chance. And against quality competition, they average 16.7 points per game. The math doesn’t work. The matchups don’t work. The tempo doesn’t work.

Kentucky can play inspired football for a half.

They can keep it close through sheer defensive discipline and field position management. But eventually—probably by early third quarter—Tennessee’s offensive firepower breaks through. And when it does, Kentucky doesn’t have the offensive capability to answer.

How This Game Plays Out

Here’s the quarter-by-quarter breakdown:

First Quarter: Tennessee establishes tempo. Quick three-and-out for Kentucky. Tennessee scores on a six-play, 73-yard drive capped by a play-action touchdown. 7-0 Vols.

Second Quarter: Kentucky strings together a decent drive using their run game and short passes. They stall in the red zone. Field goal. 7-3. Tennessee answers immediately with another touchdown drive. Kentucky gets another field goal before half. 17-10 Tennessee at halftime.

Third Quarter: This is where the game breaks open. Tennessee’s depth starts showing. Kentucky’s defense is gassed from defending 40+ plays in the first half. Tennessee rips off two scoring drives. Kentucky’s offense goes three-and-out twice. 31-13 Tennessee.

Fourth Quarter: Garbage time. Tennessee runs clock. Kentucky adds a late touchdown against prevent defense.

Final score: 38-17.

The Bottom Line

Look, I get it.

Kentucky has played a brutal schedule. They’ve faced a murderer’s row in the SEC, and their 2-4 record doesn’t fully reflect their defensive competence. They took Texas to overtime. They hung with Georgia for a half. This is a program that’s been battle-tested against elite competition.

But here’s the reality:

Their offense is one-dimensional. Their scoring ceiling against quality competition is 17-20 points. And Tennessee’s offense—even when you adjust for weak competition—is legitimately elite. 470 yards per game against Power Five teams. 6.4 yards per play. An up-tempo attack that wears down defenses. Home field advantage in Neyland Stadium.

Unless Tennessee commits 3+ turnovers, this game isn’t really in doubt.

Kentucky will keep it respectable for a half. But by the time the third quarter rolls around, Tennessee’s superior depth, tempo, and offensive firepower will have pulled away. The final score won’t be 50-10—Kentucky’s defense is too disciplined for that.

But a two-to-three score Tennessee victory? That’s not just likely—it’s inevitable.

Tennessee 38, Kentucky 17

Statistical Projections

Tennessee: 465-490 total yards | 38-41 points | 295 pass yards | 175 rush yards | 1 turnover

Kentucky: 300-320 total yards | 17-20 points | 190 pass yards | 120 rush yards | 2 turnovers

3 Keys To Watch

Tennessee’s first quarter tempo: If they jump out to a 14-0 or 17-3 lead early, Kentucky’s offense doesn’t have the firepower to dig out.

Kentucky’s third-down efficiency: They MUST convert 50%+ to sustain drives. Anything less and their defense faces 70+ plays.

Red zone execution: Touchdowns vs field goals will determine if this is a close game or a blowout.

Final Thought

The spread on this game should be Tennessee by 17-21 points. Kentucky’s offense is the limiting factor. You can have the best defense in the world, but if you can’t score points, you can’t win football games. And against Tennessee’s explosive attack, 17 points isn’t going to cut it.

Tennessee rolls. Kentucky fights hard for a half. But class—and offensive firepower—wins out.

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Week 8 — Coaches Hot Seat Rankings

Mark Haines on October 14, 2025

Three coaches were fired on Sunday.

Trent Dilfer. James Franklin. Trent Bray.

Gone.

When coaches start falling in October, everyone else feels it. The phone calls start. The quiet meetings happen. The pressure that was already there gets cranked up to a whole new level.

Here are the 10 coaches under the most pressure in college football right now:

1. Billy Napier, Florida (SEC)

Trent Dilfer got fired Sunday with a 3-4 record.

Billy Napier is 21-23 at Florida. One upset over Texas doesn’t erase years of mediocrity. The Gators are paying him $7 million to compete for bowl eligibility while Georgia and Alabama compete for championships.

That’s unacceptable at Florida.

2. Hugh Freeze, Auburn (SEC)

Hugh Freeze came to Auburn with a redemption story.

A second chance after Ole Miss. Auburn gave him big money, full control, everything he needed to compete. The pressure is mounting because it’s not working.

Right now, Auburn isn’t competing.

3. Mike Norvell, Florida State (ACC)

Florida State hasn’t won an ACC game since November 2023.

Fifteen straight conference losses. Two full seasons. Zero ACC wins.

Mike Norvell went from 13-1 ACC Champions to unwatchable in less than a year.

FSU beat Florida earlier this season, and the media acted like they were “back.” They’re not—they’re 0-2 in ACC play. Norvell has had two years to figure out how to win in the ACC.

At Florida State, that’s unacceptable.

4. Jeff Choate, Nevada (Mountain West)

Jeff Choate is 4-15 at Nevada.

What worked at Montana State isn’t translating to the FBS level. Choate talks about tough, physical football, but Nevada is getting pushed around. The problem isn’t philosophy—it’s execution.

Choate is running out of time.

5. Joe Moorhead, Akron (MAC)

Joe Moorhead is 10-33 at Akron.

Elite offensive coordinator at previous stops. Winner at Fordham. But the Zips move the ball, rack up yards, then stall in the red zone—that’s coaching.

A 10-33 record over four years tells the story.

6. Luke Fickell, Wisconsin (Big Ten)

Luke Fickell was supposed to save Wisconsin football.

Wisconsin gave him everything—big money, full control, time to install his system. The defense has regressed, the offense looks disjointed, and the Big Ten is exposing every weakness. Wisconsin fans don’t want to hear about systems—they want wins.

Fickell isn’t meeting the Wisconsin standard yet.

7. Butch Jones, Arkansas State (Sun Belt)

Butch Jones failed at Tennessee.

Now he’s failing at Arkansas State. The Red Wolves are underperforming, players aren’t buying in, and fans aren’t showing up. Arkansas State thought Jones learned from his Tennessee mistakes.

The results suggest otherwise.

8. Justin Wilcox, California (ACC)

Cal got a fresh start with the move to the ACC.

New conference. New competition. New expectations. And here’s the number that matters: 8 wins.

That’s what Justin Wilcox needs to keep his job.

Look at what’s left on the schedule:

  • North Carolina
  • At Virginia Tech
  • Ranked Virginia
  • At Louisville
  • At Stanford
  • SMU

Six games—Cal needs to win five of them.

Wilcox is supposed to be a defensive guru who maximizes limited resources. But the Bears are getting manhandled by ACC competition—the defense can’t stop anyone, the offense can’t score. The math isn’t mathing.

Cal has a new chancellor—an alum, Class of ’83.

They hired Ron Rivera, NFL veteran head coach, as General Manager overseeing the football program. ESPN’s Gameday came to Berkeley last season. Everyone saw the potential. Cal has poured money and resources into this program—and they’re expecting results.

Can Willcox get the Golden Bears to 8 regular-season wins?

9. Sonny Cumbie, Louisiana Tech (C-USA)

Sonny Cumbie was supposed to bring offensive firepower to Louisiana Tech.

The Air Raid disciple. The Texas Tech coordinator everyone wanted to hire. But coordinating and head coaching are two completely different jobs—the offense has been inconsistent, the defense worse, and the program feels directionless.

Coordinator success doesn’t automatically translate to head coaching success.

10. Derek Mason, Middle Tennessee (C-USA)

Derek Mason is 4-14 at Middle Tennessee.

He’s a defensive coach in an era where offense wins championships. Mason is building a 2005 program in 2025, and Middle Tennessee can barely crack 20 points per game. MTSU fans are asking: What exactly are we getting better at?

If the answer is “nothing,” the pressure builds.

The Bottom Line:

Three coaches got fired this week—more will follow.

Athletic directors are making calls. Boosters are applying pressure. Coaches who thought they were safe realize they’re not.

Want the full picture?

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Hugh Freeze Has 2 Games To Save His Job At Auburn. Here’s Why Saturday Night’s Matchup Against #10 Georgia At Jordan-Hare Stadium Is Game 1 Of His Final Stand

Mark Haines on October 9, 2025

7:30 PM EDT. Jordan-Hare Stadium. Lights. Chaos. Everything on the line.

This isn’t just another SEC game.

This is Hugh Freeze fighting for his job. This is Auburn desperate for relevance after back-to-back losses. This is Georgia trying to stay in the playoff hunt on the road, at night, in one of the most dangerous venues in college football.

Let me break down exactly what’s about to happen.

The Numbers Don’t Lie (But Jordan-Hare At Night Doesn’t Care)

Georgia is the better team on paper.

Georgia’s Offensive Dominance:

  • 438.6 yards per game (96.4 more than Auburn)
  • 34.6 points per game
  • Perfectly balanced: 231.8 passing, 206.8 rushing
  • 3.2 rushing touchdowns per game
  • 24.8 first downs per game

Auburn’s Offensive Struggles:

  • 342.2 yards per game (bottom-tier SEC)
  • 27.6 points per game
  • Anemic passing: 173.2 yards, 1.0 TD per game
  • Only scored 10 points at Texas A&M

Georgia should win by double digits.

But here’s what the stats don’t tell you: Auburn at night in Jordan-Hare has produced some of the most inexplicable upsets in college football history. The “Kick Six” against Alabama. Stunning wins over LSU, Georgia, and other powerhouses who had no business losing.

Strange things happen here after dark.

What To Watch: Georgia With The Ball

Can Auburn’s elite run defense hold?

This is the marquee matchup of the game. Auburn allows only 82 rushing yards per game at 2.7 yards per carry. That’s legitimately elite. But Georgia rushes for 206.8 yards per game at 4.8 yards per carry with over 3 rushing touchdowns per game.

Something’s gotta give.

If Auburn stacks the box to stop the run, Georgia will torch them through the air. If they play honestly, Georgia will run them over. There’s no good answer for Auburn’s defensive coordinator.

The balance problem Georgia creates:

Georgia doesn’t just beat you one way. They beat you every way. 231.8 passing yards per game. 206.8 rushing yards per game. Perfectly balanced, impossibly difficult to defend.

Auburn has to pick its poison.

In a night game where crowd noise makes communication difficult, Georgia’s ability to run the ball becomes even more valuable. No audibles needed. Just line up and impose your will.

Watch the first down battle:

Georgia averages 24.8 first downs per game. Long, methodical drives that keep Auburn’s defense on the field and completely gassed by the fourth quarter.

If Georgia controls the clock and sustains drives, Auburn’s offense won’t get enough possessions to keep pace. And with Auburn averaging only 27.6 points per game, they need every possession they can get.

Can Georgia handle the noise?

Here’s Georgia’s biggest weakness: 40.8 penalty yards per game. False starts. Holding calls. Drive killers.

Now put them on the road, at night, in one of the loudest stadiums in America. Communication becomes nearly impossible. The crowd will be absolutely deafening on every Georgia snap.

If Georgia beats itself with penalties, Auburn has a chance.

What To Watch: Auburn With The Ball

Can Auburn throw the football at all?

This is the existential question for Hugh Freeze’s offense.

173.2 passing yards per game. Only 1.0 passing touchdown per game. Those are borderline FCS numbers in the modern SEC. You cannot win big games with that level of offensive production.

Georgia’s pass defense allows 231.2 yards per game, which means Auburn should be able to exploit it through the air. But “should” and “can” are two very different things.

If Auburn comes out scared and conservative in the passing game, they have no chance. If Hugh Freeze opens up the playbook and takes shots downfield, they might be able to keep Georgia honest enough to run the ball effectively.

The ghost of Texas A&M:

Auburn scored 10 points at Texas A&M. Ten.

That performance haunts everything about this game. Can Auburn’s offense show up when it matters most? Or will they shrink under the pressure and the lights?

The first quarter will tell you everything you need to know.

Ball security is victory:

Auburn’s best stat: 0.2 turnovers per game. Elite ball security. Georgia commits 1.4 turnovers per game.

If Auburn takes care of the football and Georgia coughs it up twice, suddenly you’ve got short fields and momentum shifts. That’s how upsets happen.

One Auburn turnover probably ends the game. Zero Auburn turnovers gives them a legitimate puncher’s chance.

Time of possession will decide this:

Auburn averages 342.2 total yards per game. That’s not enough to win a shootout.

So they have to shorten the game. Long, grinding drives that keep the clock moving and Georgia’s explosive offense on the sideline. Lean on the run game (169 yards per game, 2.4 TDs). Control the tempo.

If Auburn gets into a track meet, they lose by three touchdowns.

Hugh Freeze’s bag of tricks:

When coaches are fighting for their jobs at home under the lights, desperation breeds creativity.

Watch for fake punts, trick plays, ultra-aggressive fourth down calls. Hugh Freeze knows conventional football won’t beat Georgia. He needs chaos, misdirection, and a little bit of magic.

At night, Jordan-Hare is the perfect stage for desperation to become brilliance.

What Each Team Brings To This Party

Georgia’s Advantages:

  • Superior talent across the board
  • Balanced, explosive offense that can beat you any way
  • Already won at #15 Tennessee (proven road warriors)
  • Playoff desperation creates focus
  • Better coaching, better depth, better everything

Georgia’s Vulnerabilities:

  • Turnover prone (1.4 per game)
  • Penalties on the road in hostile environments
  • Might overlook Auburn after beating Kentucky
  • Playing at the most dangerous venue in America

Auburn’s Advantages:

  • Home field at night (worth 10-14 points in chaos)
  • Elite ball security (0.2 turnovers per game)
  • A stout run defense that can slow Georgia down
  • Nothing to lose, everything to gain
  • Desperation creates superhuman effort

Auburn’s Vulnerabilities:

  • Offensive ineptitude (96.4 fewer yards per game than Georgia)
  • Can’t throw the football consistently
  • Two-game losing streak in SEC play
  • The talent gap is real and significant

The matchup heavily favors Georgia.

But the environment heavily favors chaos. And chaos is Auburn’s best friend.

Final Score Prediction: Georgia 31, Auburn 20

But here’s what you need to understand.

This prediction is based on logic, statistics, and talent evaluation. Georgia is the better team. They should win.

But night games at Jordan-Hare Stadium don’t follow logic.

Here’s how I see it unfolding:

First Quarter: 7-7. Auburn comes out absolutely possessed. The crowd is deafening. Georgia struggles with false starts and communication. Auburn feeds off the energy.

Second Quarter: 17-13 Georgia. Talent starts to show, but Auburn refuses to fold. A trick play or defensive turnover keeps them within striking distance. Jordan-Hare is absolutely electric at halftime.

Third Quarter: 24-20 Georgia. Back and forth. Every Georgia score gets answered. The crowd never sits down. Auburn is in this thing.

Fourth Quarter: 31-20 Georgia. Superior depth and offensive firepower finally create separation. Auburn’s limited offense can’t generate enough to keep pace over 60 minutes.

That’s the logical outcome.

But don’t be shocked if Auburn wins outright. I give them a legitimate 30-35% chance to pull the upset. That’s not “Auburn might get lucky.” That’s “Auburn has a real path to victory if a few things break their way.”

Georgia fumbles twice. Hugh Freeze calls the game of his life. The crowd forces three false starts at crucial moments. Auburn’s defense gets a pick-six.

Suddenly, it’s 27-24 Auburn with 5 minutes left, and Georgia is shell-shocked.

It can happen. It has happened. This is Jordan-Hare at night.

What This Means For Hugh Freeze

If Auburn loses 31-20:

On paper, it looks “respectable.” A competitive home loss to #10 Georgia.

But Auburn fans won’t see it that way. They’ll see an offense that still can’t score more than 20 points against quality competition. They’ll see a wasted opportunity on the biggest stage with the entire fanbase behind them.

Top 5 hot seat status: Confirmed.

If Auburn wins:

Season saved. Freeze becomes an overnight hero. The “Hugh Freeze can’t win the big one” narrative gets torched. Suddenly, that top 5 hot seat talk disappears.

Until the subsequent loss.

The reality:

This game will define Hugh Freeze’s Auburn tenure one way or another. Win, and he buys himself a full season of goodwill. Lose, and the whispers become screams.

The Bottom Line

Georgia should win.

But Auburn, at home, at night, with everything on the line and nothing to lose, is the most dangerous version of Auburn that exists.

The smart money is on Georgia by 7-9 points.

The fun money is on Auburn and chaos.

See you Saturday night.

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Oklahoma’s #6 Hot Seat Coach Has 12 Games To Save His Job. Michigan Is Game #2.

Mark Haines on September 3, 2025

Here’s what everyone in college football knows but won’t say out loud.

Brent Venables is coaching for his career on Saturday. Not his season. His career. When you’re ranked #6 out of 136 coaches on the Coaches Hot Seat rankings, every game becomes a referendum on your future.

The Math Is Simple:

  • 22-17 record in three seasons at Oklahoma
  • Two losing seasons out of three
  • #6 on the hot seat rankings (danger zone territory)
  • A schedule ESPN calls the toughest in college football

Meanwhile, Sherrone Moore sits comfortably at #36 in our rankings. That’s the difference between “we’re watching” and “we’re planning your replacement.”

Here’s What Makes Saturday Fascinating:

Oklahoma went nuclear in the offseason. They brought in 21 transfer portal players, hired a new offensive coordinator, and landed John Mateer—the quarterback who led all of college football with 44 total touchdowns last season.

Michigan countered with the #1 recruit in the country, Bryce Underwood, who already proved he belongs by going 21/31 for 251 yards in his debut.

The Stakes:

For Venables, this is his best shot at an early statement win before facing eight projected top-25 opponents. Win, and the complete program overhaul looks genius. Lose, and the whispers become roars.

For Moore, this is about proving their offensive transformation can execute against proven competition.

The Truth:

Desperate coaches make dangerous opponents. When your job depends on 12 games, every snap gets magnified. Every decision gets scrutinized.

Saturday tells us whether that desperation breaks Oklahoma or brings out its best.

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And the programs that survive are the ones that see what’s coming next—not the ones caught reacting to what already happened.

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