Blog Article

Oklahoma Football 2025: Is This Brent Venables’ Last Stand?

Mark Haines on June 20, 2025

Oklahoma football’s Brent Venables is officially coaching for his job.

After two losing seasons in three years at one of college football’s most prestigious programs, the Oklahoma head coach finds himself in an impossible position. The Sooners’ 6-7 debut in the SEC wasn’t just disappointing—it was a wake-up call that sent shockwaves through Norman and forced the program into crisis mode.

According to 247Sports’ Brad Crawford, Venables enters the 2025 season on the nation’s hottest seat, facing more pressure than any other coach in college football. Oklahoma’s win total at DraftKings sits at just 6.5 wins. At most programs, that might be acceptable. But Oklahoma isn’t most programs.

This is a program with 950 wins, seven national championships, and zero tolerance for mediocrity.

The Numbers Don’t Lie—Venables Is Running Out of Time

Here’s what Venables is up against:

  • A 22-17 overall record in three seasons
  • Two losing seasons (6-7 in both 2022 and 2024)
  • A 2-6 debut in SEC play that left Oklahoma tied for 13th in the standings
  • The program’s worst scoring offense since 1998 (24.0 points per game)
  • A schedule that ESPN ranks as the toughest in college football

“I know the buyout is considerable, but if he suffers a losing season for a third time in four years at Oklahoma, the Sooners are going to be looking for a new head coach after the 2025 season,” Crawford said.

The math is simple. Another losing season equals a coaching change.

Oklahoma Went All-In on a Complete Program Overhaul

When faced with the potential collapse of its program, Oklahoma did something remarkable.

They didn’t just make incremental changes. They burned everything to the ground and started over. The university hired a third-party consultant to evaluate every aspect of the program. What followed was nothing short of revolutionary:

  • Hired two new coordinators (Ben Arbuckle on offense, defensive restructuring)
  • Installed an entirely new front office with seven staffers
  • Brought in former NFL executive Jim Nagy as general manager
  • Added 21 transfer portal players to address critical weaknesses
  • Even hired a new trainer with NFL connections

This wasn’t just roster tinkering. This was organizational warfare against mediocrity.

The crown jewel of this transformation? Landing John Mateer, the No. 1 quarterback in the transfer portal.

John Mateer: The $34.9 Million Question

Everything hinges on one player.

Mateer arrives from Washington State with ridiculous production: 3,139 passing yards, 29 passing touchdowns, 826 rushing yards, and 15 rushing touchdowns in 2024. His 44 total touchdowns led all of college football—more than Heisman finalist Cam Ward (41) and Clemson’s Cade Klubnik.

But here’s what makes Mateer special: he’s reuniting with offensive coordinator Ben Arbuckle, the mastermind behind Washington State’s explosive offense. The chemistry is already there. The system is proven. The question is whether it can translate to the brutal SEC gauntlet.

“John Mateer, the Washington State quarterback transfer—he’s gotta be a guy. He can’t just be someone that comes in there and has 20 touchdown passes. He’s gotta have 30 to 32 touchdown passes for Oklahoma to be a major contender and for Brent Venables to get off the nation’s hottest seat.”

No pressure, right?

Venables Made One Smart Decision: He’s Calling Defense Again

When your job is on the line, you go back to what made you successful.

Venables built his reputation as one of college football’s elite defensive coordinators. At Clemson, his defenses were legendary. At Oklahoma, the defense has actually been the bright spot—allowing just 21.5 points per game in 2024 and ranking 29th nationally in scoring defense.

So when defensive coordinator Zach Alley bolted for West Virginia, Venables made the obvious choice. He’s taking back defensive play-calling duties.

“Why am I gonna call the defense? Because I’m good at it,” Venables said. “I’m confident in it.”

This move accomplishes three things:

  • It puts the defense in the hands of a proven coordinator
  • It frees up resources to focus on offensive improvements
  • It plays to Venables’ greatest strength during a make-or-break season

Smart coaches know when to bet on themselves.

The Schedule From Hell Awaits

Here’s the brutal truth about Oklahoma’s 2025 schedule.

ESPN’s SP+ ranks it as the toughest in college football. The Sooners will face eight teams projected to start the season in the top 25. There are no easy games. No breathers. No margin for error.

The gauntlet includes:

  • Michigan at home in Week 2
  • Auburn, Texas, Ole Miss, Missouri, and LSU in conference play
  • Road trips to South Carolina, Tennessee, and Alabama
  • The annual Red River Rivalry that could define seasons

This schedule could either validate Oklahoma’s transformation or expose it as window dressing. Success against this competition would immediately change national perception. Failure would seal Venables’ fate.

What Success Actually Looks Like in 2025

Forget about playoff dreams for now.

Oklahoma needs to prove three fundamental things in 2025:

  • The offense can score consistently (targeting 30+ points per game)
  • The team can compete physically with SEC opponents week after week
  • Venables can develop the roster depth necessary for long-term success

Most analysts project 7-5 or 8-4, which would represent clear progress while falling short of traditional Oklahoma standards. But here’s the reality: a winning season and bowl appearance might be enough to buy Venables another year.

The key metrics extend beyond wins and losses. Can Mateer throw for 30+ touchdowns? Can the offensive line protect him against SEC pass rushes? Can the defense create turnovers and game-changing plays?

These are the questions that will determine whether Oklahoma’s transformation succeeds or fails.

This Is Make-or-Break Time for Everyone

Oklahoma’s 2025 season represents the ultimate high-stakes gamble.

Venables has bet his career on a complete program overhaul. Athletic director Joe Castiglione has invested heavily in new infrastructure and personnel. The fanbase is demanding immediate results after years of frustration.

In a recent ESPN article, analyst Bill Connelly noted that Mateer and Arbuckle’s additions make Oklahoma “one of the most interesting teams in college football” heading into 2025. The pieces are in place for dramatic improvement.

But potential means nothing in the SEC. Execution under pressure determines everything.

For Venables, 2025 isn’t just another season—it’s his final audition. The combination of Mateer’s proven production, Arbuckle’s innovative system, and a defense with established talent creates the framework for success.

The question isn’t whether Oklahoma has the tools to compete.

The question is whether they can use them before it’s too late.

The Next Billion Dollar Game

College football isn’t just a sport anymore—it’s a high-stakes market where information asymmetry separates winners from losers. While the average fan sees only what happens between the sidelines, real insiders trade on the hidden dynamics reshaping programs from the inside out.

Our team has embedded with the power brokers who run this game. From the coaching carousel to NIL deals to transfer portal strategies, we’ve mapped the entire ecosystem with the kind of obsessive detail that would make a hedge fund analyst blush.

Why subscribe? Because in markets this inefficient, information creates alpha. Our subscribers knew which coaches were dead men walking months before the mainstream media caught on. They understood which programs were quietly transforming their recruiting apparatuses while competitors slept.

The smart money is already positioning for 2025. Are you?

Click below—it’s free—and join the small group of people who understand the real value of college football’s new economy.

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Vanderbilt Football 2025: The Year Everything Changes

Mark Haines on June 19, 2025

Vanderbilt football is about to prove that 2024 wasn’t a fluke.

The Commodores shocked college football last season with their first winning record since 2013, capped by a bowl victory that had Nashville celebrating like they’d won the national championship. Now comes the real test: can they do it again?

The answer lies in understanding what makes this program different from every other SEC bottom-feeder that has enjoyed a brief moment in the sun before crashing back to earth.

The Foundation That Won’t Crack

Diego Pavia isn’t just returning for his final season.

He’s returning as the most proven dual-threat quarterback in the SEC, a player who accounted for 3,094 total yards and 28 touchdowns while throwing just four interceptions in 2024. His 143.5 passer rating wasn’t a statistical accident. It was the result of a quarterback who understands how to manage games, create explosive plays, and deliver when everything is on the line.

Pavia was selected the league’s first-ever Newcomer of the Year, presented to the league’s top player who had not previously competed in the SEC and was not eligible for Freshman of the Year, according to the official Vanderbilt athletics website.

But here’s what makes his return even more valuable:

  • He’s publicly declared Vanderbilt’s intent to “run Tennessee”
  • He’s already proven he can beat the best teams in the country (see: Alabama upset)
  • He brings the kind of swagger that transforms program culture

Joining Pavia is All-SEC tight end Eli Stowers, who became the first Vanderbilt offensive player to earn first-team All-SEC honors since 2013 after catching 49 passes for 638 yards and five touchdowns.

This isn’t just talent returning—it’s proven, battle-tested production.

The Defense Gets Serious About Stopping People

Vanderbilt’s defense allowed 376.5 yards per game in 2024, which sounds terrible until you realize where they started.

The unit jumped from 126th to 50th in scoring defense and from 104th to 52nd in rushing defense during the 2024 season. That’s not incremental improvement—that’s a complete transformation of identity.

Now they’re doubling down on that progress:

  • Steve Gregory promoted to full defensive coordinator after proving his system works
  • Pass rush specialist Will Smart added to maximize pressure packages
  • Nine defensive starters returning, including linebacker Bryan Longwell (89 tackles) and the Fontenette-Capers pass rush duo (16 combined sacks)

The transfer portal reinforcements tell the story of a program that knows exactly what it needs:

  • Safety CJ Heard from Florida Atlantic brings proven playmaking ability
  • Defensive linemen Mason Nelson (Western Michigan), Jaylon Stone (Miami-OH), and Clinton Azubuike (Northern Arizona) add crucial depth
  • Secondary additions Jordan Mathews (Tennessee) and others address coverage concerns

This isn’t hope-based roster building—it’s surgical improvement of specific weaknesses.

The Schedule That Will Define Everything

Vanderbilt will face seven opponents that reached the postseason in 2024, including College Football Playoff teams Texas and Tennessee.

This schedule doesn’t care about your feel-good story. It will expose every weakness, punish every mistake, and test whether this program has truly turned the corner or just enjoyed a brief moment of overachievement.

The critical dates that will define the season:

  • August 30 vs Charleston Southern – No trap games allowed
  • October 4 at Alabama – The revenge game, exactly 364 days after the upset
  • November 1 at Texas – First trip to Austin since 1903
  • November 29 at Tennessee – The rivalry game that could define the future

October and November will be brutal:

  • Four SEC road games at South Carolina, Alabama, Texas, and Tennessee
  • Home contests against LSU, Missouri, Auburn, and Kentucky that offer opportunities but zero margin for error
  • A November slate that could either cement their reputation or expose them as pretenders

The schedule is college football’s truth serum—and Vanderbilt is about to find out what they’re really made of.

Money Talks, and Vanderbilt Is Finally Speaking the Language

The Anchor Impact Fund has raised over $2.1 million to support athletes, but that’s not the whole story.

The real story is how Vanderbilt is using NIL strategically rather than throwing money around hoping something sticks. They’re targeting specific needs, combining competitive packages with immediate playing time, and leveraging Nashville’s unique market appeal.

Here’s why their approach works:

  • Portal-focused roster building that brought in nine starters for 2024’s breakthrough
  • Strategic targeting of undervalued transfers rather than bidding wars for five-stars
  • Emphasis on holistic development, including financial literacy and branding support

The new NCAA settlement, which allows up to $20.5 million in direct athlete compensation, will still favor programs with deeper pockets. But Vanderbilt has proven you don’t need to outspend everyone—you just need to spend smarter than everyone.

Clark Lea Isn’t Going Anywhere, and That Changes Everything

Their NIL success directly contributed to retaining players like Pavia while attracting impact transfers who might otherwise choose programs with bigger checkbooks but smaller opportunities.

Lea was the first Vanderbilt coach to be voted Coach of the Year by his peers since 2008 and the first Vandy head man to win it outright since 1982, according to Sports Illustrated’s coverage of his SEC Coach of the Year recognition.

But accolades don’t build programs—stability does.

Lea’s contract extension through 2029 provides something Vanderbilt hasn’t had in decades: continuity. His deep connection as an alumnus who played for the program creates emotional investment that transcends typical coaching arrangements.

The coaching staff tells the story of a program that values both continuity and evolution:

  • Offensive coordinator Tim Beck returns with proven success developing Pavia
  • Defensive coordinator Steve Gregory promoted after engineering dramatic improvement
  • Strategic additions like pass rush specialist Will Smart show a commitment to specialized expertise

This isn’t a coach waiting for a better opportunity—it’s a coach building something lasting.

Special Teams: The Advantage Nobody Talks About

Kicker Brock Taylor converted 85.7% of field goals and 97.5% of extra points in 2024.

In a conference where games are decided by three points and missed kicks end seasons, that reliability is worth multiple wins. Punter Jesse Mirco averaged 48.0 yards per punt, providing field position advantages that often proved decisive.

Return specialists Junior Sherrill and Martel Hight both scored touchdowns in 2024, adding explosive potential that can flip momentum in crucial moments.

Special teams excellence isn’t glamorous, but it’s the foundation of every program that consistently outperforms expectations.

The Sustainability Test

Every SEC program has good seasons—few have sustainable success.

Vanderbilt enters 2025 facing the ultimate test: can they maintain competitiveness while navigating elevated expectations, increased media attention, and the constant threat of player defections through the transfer portal?

The answers lie in their systematic approach:

  • Academic excellence (31st consecutive semester above 3.0 GPA) provides recruiting differentiation
  • Cultural foundation built on development rather than just talent acquisition
  • Strategic roster management that emphasizes fit over pure star power

Most analysts project a 6-6 record, but that projection undersells the program’s potential if defensive improvements materialize and key players stay healthy.

Bowl eligibility remains the primary goal, but consecutive winning seasons would represent program-altering achievement in a conference that has historically treated Vanderbilt as a guaranteed victory.

Why This Time Is Different

Vanderbilt football isn’t just building for 2025—they’re building for the next decade.

The combination of Pavia’s final season, strategic roster reinforcement, and coaching staff continuity creates the best foundation this program has enjoyed in over a decade. More importantly, they’ve proven they can develop culture, manage resources, and compete against elite talent.

The schedule provides zero margin for error but offers maximum opportunity for statement victories that could permanently elevate their national profile.

Success in November—particularly against Kentucky and Tennessee—won’t just validate the 2024 breakthrough. It will establish Vanderbilt as a permanent factor in SEC competition rather than an occasional disruptor.

The question isn’t whether Vanderbilt can compete in the SEC anymore.

The question is whether they can sustain that competitiveness while building toward something even greater. The 2025 season will provide the definitive answer to college football’s most intriguing sustainability question.

And for the first time in decades, the smart money is on the Commodores proving that lightning can indeed strike twice in Nashville.

The Next Billion Dollar Game

College football isn’t just a sport anymore—it’s a high-stakes market where information asymmetry separates winners from losers. While the average fan sees only what happens between the sidelines, real insiders trade on the hidden dynamics reshaping programs from the inside out.

Our team has embedded with the power brokers who run this game. From the coaching carousel to NIL deals to transfer portal strategies, we’ve mapped the entire ecosystem with the kind of obsessive detail that would make a hedge fund analyst blush.

Why subscribe? Because in markets this inefficient, information creates alpha. Our subscribers knew which coaches were dead men walking months before the mainstream media caught on. They understood which programs were quietly transforming their recruiting apparatuses while competitors slept.

The smart money is already positioning for 2025. Are you?

Click below—it’s free—and join the small group of people who understand the real value of college football’s new economy.

Free Subscription
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Auburn Football 2025 Season Preview: Hugh Freeze’s Make-or-Break Season Arrives

Mark Haines on June 18, 2025

Auburn’s Hugh Freeze is running out of time.

After two straight losing seasons at Auburn, the Tigers head coach faces the most critical year of his tenure on the Plains. Everything that could be upgraded has been upgraded. The quarterback room features a former five-star transfer. The roster is loaded with blue-chip talent from back-to-back top-10 recruiting classes. The transfer portal has been pillaged for immediate impact players.

But none of that matters if Auburn can’t win football games.

The 2025 season isn’t about potential anymore—it’s about production. And for Freeze, it’s about survival in the unforgiving world of SEC football.

Jackson Arnold Solves Auburn’s Biggest Problem

Auburn’s quarterback situation has been solved.

Oklahoma transfer Jackson Arnold brings the exact skill set that Hugh Freeze’s offense demands: dual-threat ability, RPO mastery, and a cannon for an arm. Arnold isn’t just an upgrade—he’s a complete transformation of what Auburn can do offensively.

His 2024 numbers at Oklahoma tell only part of the story:

  • 1,421 passing yards, 12 touchdowns, 3 interceptions
  • 444 rushing yards, 3 touchdowns
  • 131 rushing yards in upset win over No. 7 Alabama

“The fit he is for our offense and Auburn, I couldn’t be more excited,” Freeze said. “He’s a dual-threat guy who understands the RPO system extremely well and throws the deep ball extremely well.”

Arnold struggled at Oklahoma due to receiver injuries and the presence of three different offensive coordinators in one season. At Auburn, he’ll have stability, weapons, and a system designed to capitalize on his strengths.

This is the quarterback Auburn has been searching for since Cam Newton left the Plains.

The Transfer Portal Became Auburn’s Salvation

Auburn attacked the transfer portal like their program depended on it.

Because it did.

The Tigers identified every weakness from 2024 and found proven solutions in the portal. Offensive line struggles? Virginia Tech’s Xavier Chaplin and USC’s Mason Murphy arrive with starting experience. Receiver depth issues? Georgia Tech’s Eric Singleton Jr. brings elite production and versatility.

The defensive side received similar treatment:

  • MAC Defensive Back of the Year Raion Strader
  • Experienced linebacker Caleb Wheatland
  • Multiple defensive backs with Power Five starting experience

Auburn brought in 19 transfers while losing 23 players to the portal. However, the key difference lies in this: most departures weren’t regular contributors, whereas most additions had starting experience.

This wasn’t roster management—this was strategic reconstruction.

Elite Recruiting Finally Pays Dividends

Auburn’s recruiting renaissance under Hugh Freeze has been impossible to ignore.

Back-to-back top-10 recruiting classes have fundamentally changed the talent level on the Plains. The 2025 class ranks No. 6 nationally and includes:

  • Five-star quarterback Deuce Knight
  • Five-star edge rusher Jared Smith
  • Eight of Alabama’s top-10 prospects
  • Multiple ESPN 300 contributors across all positions

“I inherited a program that didn’t have a top-25 recruiting class for 4 years,” Freeze acknowledged. “You’re not going to win in this league [with that]. We’ve now had 2 full recruiting classes, both top-10.”

The talent gap that existed between Auburn and SEC powers has been closed through recruiting. Now comes the harder part: developing and deploying that talent effectively.

Defense Gets Rare Continuity

Here’s something Auburn hasn’t had in years: defensive coordinator stability.

D.J. Durkin returns for his second season leading the defense, providing continuity in a program that has cycled through coordinators at breakneck speed. The 2024 defense showed flashes of dominance when healthy, averaging 7 tackles for loss and 2.3 sacks per game.

The secondary remains Auburn’s defensive strength:

  • Experienced starters Kayin Lee and Kaleb Harris return
  • Transfer addition Raion Strader brings All-MAC credentials
  • Depth improved through recruiting and portal additions

Auburn must replace five of its top seven tacklers, but the combination of returning talent and strategic additions provides optimism for significant improvement.

The defense has the pieces—now Durkin gets an entire season to implement his system without major personnel overhauls.

The Schedule Helps Auburn

Auburn’s 2025 schedule is the most favorable they’ve seen in years.

Ranked 15th nationally in strength of schedule and 12th in the SEC, the Tigers avoid some of the conference’s most dangerous programs while their most significant challenges at Jordan-Hare Stadium.

Key scheduling advantages:

  • Alabama and Georgia both visit Auburn (historically better for the Tigers in odd years)
  • No matchup with Texas, the SEC’s most dominant program
  • Manageable non-conference slate to build momentum
  • Oklahoma visit provides revenge game opportunity against Arnold’s former team

“I feel a lot better than I have about our talent, our size, athleticism, and depth,” Freeze shared. “I still believe we need one more [signing] class to get to where we need to be, but I don’t sense any panic.”

The schedule provides Auburn with realistic paths to 7-8 wins if the talent translates into performance.

Hugh Freeze’s Job Depends on One Thing

Bowl eligibility isn’t a goal for Auburn in 2025—it’s a requirement.

“I’m not a fool, I think we’ve got to go to a bowl game,” Freeze said publicly. This represents the minimum acceptable outcome after two years of elite recruiting and massive roster investment.

The pressure couldn’t be more obvious:

  • Two straight losing seasons
  • Back-to-back years missing bowl games
  • Massive financial investment in roster construction
  • Fan patience is completely exhausted

Freeze’s track record suggests confidence in reaching this baseline. In 12 seasons as an FBS head coach, he’s failed to win six games only twice: his final year at Ole Miss and his second year at Auburn.

But Auburn hasn’t just invested in talent—they’ve invested in Freeze’s vision. If that vision doesn’t produce wins in 2025, both will be replaced.

The Areas That Will Define Success

Auburn’s 2025 season will be determined by improvement in specific areas.

Red zone efficiency was a key factor in the Tigers’ struggles in 2024, ranking 122nd nationally in touchdown percentage. Arnold’s dual-threat ability and upgraded receivers should immediately address this critical weakness.

Special teams ranked 84th nationally in SP+ efficiency, consistently hurting field position and momentum. New specialists and renewed emphasis represent clear priorities.

Turnover margin must improve after Auburn averaged 1.8 giveaways while forcing only 1.1 takeaways per game. Arnold’s decision-making will be crucial in flipping this equation.

These aren’t complex problems—they’re execution issues that talent alone should be able to solve.

What Success Looks Like

Vegas set Auburn’s win total at 7.5 games, reflecting cautious optimism about the program’s trajectory.

ESPN’s SP+ model projects Auburn to rank No. 25 overall, with an average of 6.9 wins. The defense is projected to rank 19th nationally, while the offense is projected to rank 48th. These numbers suggest a team capable of bowling with upside for more.

Realistic 2025 benchmarks:

  • Bowl eligibility (minimum acceptable outcome)
  • Competitive showings against Alabama and Georgia at home
  • Road victory against Oklahoma or Texas A&M
  • Establishing clear program momentum for 2026

The talent is there. The schedule cooperates. The expectations are clear.

Now, Auburn has to win football games.

The Bottom Line: No More Excuses

Auburn enters 2025 with everything necessary for success.

The quarterback position has been upgraded with a proven dual-threat transfer. The skill positions feature elite recruiting and portal additions. The defense returns key contributors while adding impact players for depth.

The schedule provides legitimate opportunities for 7-8 wins. The roster construction represents a substantial financial investment in immediate success.

Hugh Freeze has spent two years building this foundation. The 2025 season will determine whether he can coach at the level he recruits, or whether Auburn needs to find someone who can.

The excuses have been exhausted. The expectations are crystal clear. The pieces are in place.

Time to find out if Hugh Freeze can turn all this potential into actual victories.

The Next Billion Dollar Game

College football isn’t just a sport anymore—it’s a high-stakes market where information asymmetry separates winners from losers. While the average fan sees only what happens between the sidelines, real insiders trade on the hidden dynamics reshaping programs from the inside out.

Our team has embedded with the power brokers who run this game. From the coaching carousel to NIL deals to transfer portal strategies, we’ve mapped the entire ecosystem with the kind of obsessive detail that would make a hedge fund analyst blush.

Why subscribe? Because in markets this inefficient, information creates alpha. Our subscribers knew which coaches were dead men walking months before the mainstream media caught on. They understood which programs were quietly transforming their recruiting apparatuses while competitors slept.

The smart money is already positioning for 2025. Are you?

Click below—it’s free—and join the small group of people who understand the real value of college football’s new economy.

Free Subscription
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Mississippi State Football 2025 Season Preview: Bulldogs Poised for Significant Improvement Under Jeff Lebby

Mark Haines on June 18, 2025

Jeff Lebby’s second season at Mississippi State represents the most critical juncture in recent program history.

After enduring a brutal 2-10 campaign that saw the Bulldogs finish winless in SEC play, everything about this team has been rebuilt from the ground up. The transfer portal became Mississippi State’s best friend. The recruiting class jumped into the top 30 nationally. And perhaps most importantly, the quarterback who showed flashes of brilliance before injury is coming back for another shot.

The question isn’t whether Mississippi State will be better in 2025.

The question is whether they’ll be good enough to survive one of the most punishing schedules in college football.

Blake Shapen’s Return Changes Everything

The most significant development for Mississippi State heading into 2025 is the return of quarterback Blake Shapen.

After receiving a medical hardship waiver, Shapen announced his decision to come back for a sixth season. The Baylor transfer started the Bulldogs’ first four games of 2024 before a shoulder injury ended his season prematurely. But what he showed in those four games was exactly what Jeff Lebby’s offense needed:

  • 68.5% completion percentage
  • 243.5 yards per game
  • 8 touchdowns to just 1 interception
  • 2 rushing touchdowns

“Blake’s decision to return for the 2025 season after his season-ending shoulder injury in Week 4 last year provides crucial stability,” notes former Mississippi State quarterback Jackie Sherrill.

His return isn’t just about talent—it’s about continuity in a system that desperately needs it.

The Transfer Portal Became Mississippi State’s Salvation

Mississippi State attacked the transfer portal like their program depended on it.

Because it did.

The defensive line—arguably the team’s biggest weakness in 2024—received a complete overhaul:

  • Will Whitson from Coastal Carolina (former Senior Bowl candidate)
  • Jamil Burroughs from Alabama/Miami
  • Jaray Bledsoe from Texas
  • Red Hibbler from NC State
  • Raishein Thomas from Northern Illinois

The secondary was reinforced with Old Dominion safety Jahron Manning (85 tackles, 3 interceptions in 2024) and Marian corner Dwight Lewis III. Tennessee transfer Jalen Smith brings veteran leadership to the linebacker position after Stone Blanton’s departure to the NFL.

On offense, the receiver room added six transfers, including Brenen Thompson from Oklahoma and Anthony Evans III from Georgia. Running back Davon Booth returns after leading the team in rushing, now paired with South Alabama transfer Fluff Bothwell (7.5 yards per carry in 2024).

This wasn’t just roster management—this was program reconstruction.

Recruiting Finally Shows Signs of Life

The 2025 recruiting class ranks 26th nationally.

For a program that has struggled to attract top talent, this represents massive progress. Mississippi State signed 27 players, with four four-star prospects:

  • Quarterback KaMario Taylor
  • Linebacker Tyler Lockhart
  • Edge rusher Tyshun Willis
  • Cornerback Kyle Johnson

This recruiting success reflects Lebby’s emphasis on building depth while maintaining focus on in-state prospects. The class provides both immediate contributors and long-term development pieces as the program works to close the talent gap with SEC elite programs.

The Schedule Flip Could Be a Game-Changer

Here’s what makes 2025 different: Mississippi State gets to play its toughest opponents at home.

After playing four 2024 College Football Playoff teams on the road last season, the Bulldogs welcome those same four teams to Starkville in 2025:

  • Arizona State (Sept. 6)
  • Tennessee (Sept. 27)
  • Texas (Oct. 25)
  • Georgia (Nov. 8)

The season opens with a road trip to Southern Miss (Aug. 30), then the home opener against Arizona State. Alcorn State and Northern Illinois round out the non-conference schedule before the SEC gauntlet begins.

Critical road games include Texas A&M (Oct. 4), Florida (Oct. 18), Arkansas (Nov. 1), and Missouri (Nov. 15). The traditional Egg Bowl against Ole Miss concludes the season at home (Nov. 28).

This home-and-away flip gives Mississippi State home-field advantage for their most challenging contests—and that could make all the difference.

Defense Gets a Complete Makeover

The 2024 defense was historically bad.

34.1 points allowed per game. 456.4 yards surrendered per game. Both numbers are dead last in the SEC. The defensive line couldn’t generate pressure, couldn’t stop the run, and frankly looked overmatched every Saturday.

The transformation has been dramatic. Spring practice reports indicated immediate improvement, with the revamped defensive line generating six sacks in the spring game. Safety Isaac Smith returns as the anchor after recording 127 tackles in 2024, providing veteran leadership for a unit that must improve dramatically.

The additions aren’t just about talent—they’re about changing the entire culture of a defense that got pushed around for an entire season.

Jeff Lebby Faces His Defining Moment

“What Jeff is building takes time, but the signs are encouraging,” former Mississippi State coach Jackie Sherrill said at a recent booster event. “The SEC West isn’t forgiving, but neither is standing still. The program is moving forward.”

But forward isn’t fast enough for everyone.

Lebby enters his second season under intense pressure to show tangible progress. The roster overhaul was necessary. The recruiting improvements are promising. The quarterback situation is stabilized.

Now he has to win games.

External projections place Mississippi State’s win total at approximately 4.5 games. ESPN’s FPI rankings have the Bulldogs at 52nd nationally—a notable improvement, but still far from SEC respectability.

The margin for error is razor-thin. Early momentum from non-conference victories is essential. Pulling off at least one significant SEC upset might be the difference between job security and a coaching search.

The Keys to Exceeding Expectations

For Mississippi State to surprise people in 2025, several things must happen perfectly:

  • The defensive line transformation must translate into consistent pressure and run-stopping ability
  • Blake Shapen must stay healthy and continue his efficient play
  • The offensive line must gel quickly to protect the quarterback
  • Costly turnovers and penalties (minus-six turnover margin in 2024) must be eliminated

The pieces are in place for significant improvement. The talent level is higher. The depth is better. The culture is changing.

But in the SEC, good intentions don’t win football games.

What Success Looks Like

Mississippi State doesn’t need to win the SEC in 2025.

They need to look like a program moving in the right direction. They need to be competitive in games they’re supposed to lose. They need to win the games they’re supposed to win. And they need to steal one or two that they’re not supposed to win.

Bowl eligibility would be a massive step forward. Beating Ole Miss in the Egg Bowl would erase a lot of frustration. Winning at Arkansas or Florida could provide momentum heading into the 2026 season.

Success will be measured not just in wins and losses, but in competitiveness, development, and the establishment of a sustainable program foundation.

The 2025 season represents a pivotal moment for Mississippi State football, with the potential to either validate Jeff Lebby’s vision or send the program back to the drawing board once again.

The Next Billion Dollar Game

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When No One Is Bigger Than The Program: The Tennessee QB Saga

Mark Haines on April 14, 2025

Tennessee QB Saga: College football witnessed one of the most dramatic quarterback exits in recent memory.

The Shocking Departure

Nobody saw it coming, but everyone should have.

In the era of NIL deals and transfer portal drama, Tennessee head coach Josh Heupel stood at a podium Saturday afternoon, addressing the elephant not in the room: Star quarterback Nico Iamaleava had practically vanished from the program.

“Man, listen, it’s the state of college football,” Heupel told reporters with the resolute calmness of someone who’d seen this movie before. “At the end of the day, no one is ever bigger than the program. That includes me, too.”

What followed was the unraveling of a relationship that had been built on promise, potential, and apparently, a price tag that suddenly changed:

  • Iamaleava was in contract negotiations for a new NIL deal on Thursday
  • The redshirt sophomore no-showed practice Friday morning
  • He didn’t communicate with Tennessee coaches throughout Friday
  • By Saturday morning, Heupel and the Vols were “moving on”

The modern college athlete isn’t just playing for passion—they’re negotiating their value in real-time.

Players now understand their market worth and aren’t afraid to leverage it.

When negotiations break down, the consequences aren’t just financial—they’re program-altering.

The Rising Star Who Fell to Earth

Just months ago, Nico Iamaleava represented Tennessee football’s brightest future.

The five-star prospect arrived in Knoxville with expectations as towering as his 6’6″ frame. Ranked as the No. 1 overall prospect in the On3 ratings, Iamaleava wasn’t just another talented quarterback—he was the cornerstone of Tennessee’s championship ambitions.

His freshman season showed flashes of brilliance:

  • 2,616 passing yards in 13 games
  • 19 touchdowns against only 5 interceptions
  • A career-high 314 yards in the season-opener
  • 63.8% completion percentage

What makes this departure so stunning isn’t just the talent walking out the door—it’s the suddenness with which it happened.

The New Reality of College Sports

Contract negotiations have replaced scholarship offers as the primary currency of college athletics.

This shift has transformed how programs and players interact, creating a professional dynamic within an ostensibly amateur framework. When Iamaleava reportedly entered negotiations for a new NIL deal, he wasn’t being greedy—he was participating in the new normal.

But there are unwritten rules even in this wild west environment:

  • Show up to practice while negotiations continue
  • Communicate with coaches when issues arise
  • Remember the team still comes first
  • Understand that leverage works both ways

The failure to honor these principles led to what insiders describe as Heupel’s decision to move forward without his star quarterback.

What Happens Next?

Tennessee football now stands at a crossroads with two young quarterbacks holding the program’s immediate future.

Jake Merklinger, a redshirt freshman, and George MacIntyre, a true freshman, suddenly find themselves thrust into a spotlight neither expected this early. Both were four-star prospects with promising futures, but neither has taken a meaningful snap in college football.

“We got two guys in that room, excited to go watch them go play,” Heupel said, masking whatever disappointment or frustration might lie beneath his coach-speak exterior. “They’ve had a really good spring, grown throughout it.”

The coming days will reveal more about this dramatic separation:

  • Iamaleava plans to enter the transfer portal when it opens Wednesday
  • Reports suggest he wasn’t the only player considering financial ultimatums
  • Tennessee must now rebuild around inexperienced signal-callers
  • The college football world watches to see which program will offer Iamaleava his price

One sentence captures it all: When Josh Heupel said no one is bigger than the program, he wasn’t just making a statement—he was setting a precedent for college football’s new reality.

A to Z Sports breaks down the family and school dynamics that led to this. LINK

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How the Florida Gators AD Showed Us What Real Leadership Looks Like

Mark Haines on April 9, 2025

In today’s reactive world, genuine leadership has become increasingly rare.

When Florida Gators men’s basketball coach Todd Golden faced serious misconduct allegations before the season, Athletic Director Scott Stricklin had a critical choice to make:

  • Take the easy path and suspend Golden immediately to protect the university’s reputation
  • Stand firm in the principles of due process and support his coach while the investigation unfolds
  • Bow to external pressure demanding immediate action
  • Risk his own career by refusing to rush to judgment
  • Trust that the truth would eventually emerge

Your ability to lead isn’t measured during times of prosperity, but in moments of intense pressure and scrutiny.
Most leaders crumble when faced with public outrage and cancel culture.
But the greatest leaders understand that true courage means standing by your principles when it would be easier not to.
This is exactly what Scott Stricklin did for Todd Golden and the Florida Gators.

Stricklin’s Bold Stance Against Cancel Culture

According to Orlando Sentinel’s Mike Bianchi, Stricklin’s approach was nothing short of revolutionary in our current climate.

The easy move would have been immediate suspension. After all, nobody predicted the Gators would become a national championship contender. The stakes seemed low, and the potential PR damage high.

But Stricklin chose a different path.

He allowed the investigation to proceed without prejudgment, keeping Golden in his position despite the serious nature of the allegations. This wasn’t just a basketball decision—it was a moral one.

The Athletic Director’s Powerful Explanation

Stricklin recently explained his decision-making process to Bianchi with remarkable clarity.

“Both morally and legally, it was the right thing to do,” Stricklin stated. “Anyone can make an allegation, but it doesn’t mean it’s true. He [Golden] has rights just like the people who make allegations have rights. And so there’s a process and we followed that process.”

This single sentence reveals everything you need to know about Stricklin’s character.

The Foundation of Trust That Made It Possible

Why was Stricklin able to stand firm when others would have folded?

It came down to a foundation of trust built over time:

  • Golden had consistently demonstrated honesty since their first meeting
  • Stricklin had developed a leadership philosophy built on investing in people
  • He understood that even successful individuals occasionally face challenges
  • He remembered Billy Donovan’s wisdom that great coaches overcome adversity without distraction

“Todd has been completely honest and truthful since I first met him and I had no reason to think that was any different in this situation,” Stricklin explained.

The Lesson Every Leader Should Take Away

The next time you’re faced with a crisis, remember Scott Stricklin.

Instead of reacting to public pressure, he stayed true to his principles and allowed due process to unfold. Rather than protecting his own reputation at all costs, he risked it by standing by his coach.

As Stricklin himself said, “You’re investing in people. And I have a lot of faith in our people.”

That’s what real leadership looks like.

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Offense vs. Defense: Georgia and Texas Face Off in the SEC Conference Championship Game

Mark Haines on December 6, 2024

Tomorrow night at Mercedes-Benz Stadium, two college football titans collide in the SEC Conference Championship game. It’s a showdown that transcends the scoreboard; Georgia, the reigning powerhouse with its electrifying offense led by Carson Beck, takes on a Texas team rewriting the rules of modern football with a defense that has defied all expectations. In an age dominated by high-flying offenses, the Longhorns have forged a defensive identity that could prove revolutionary. As these contrasting approaches meet, the question looms: Can a defensive renaissance overcome the offensive evolution that has defined this era of the sport?

The Evolution Game: How Texas Built a Defense for Modern Football

The numbers tell a story, but not the one you’d expect. In the gleaming, antiseptic confines of Mercedes-Benz Stadium, two football programs will meet tomorrow night, each representing a different answer to the same question: How do you win in an era when offense has seemingly broken the sport?

Let’s Break It Down:

Overall Records and Rankings

  • Texas: 11-1 record, ranked #2
  • Georgia: 10-2 record, ranked #5

Texas has a slight edge in overall record and ranking heading into the championship game.

Offensive Performance

Passing Game

  • Texas: 274.6 yards per game, 33 touchdowns, 9 interceptions
  • Georgia: 297.0 yards per game, 28 touchdowns, 12 interceptions

Georgia has a slight advantage in passing yards, but Texas has been more efficient with more touchdowns and fewer interceptions.

Rushing Game

  • Texas: 175.5 yards per game, 21 touchdowns
  • Georgia: 128.3 yards per game, 22 touchdowns

Though touchdown production is similar, Texas has a significant edge in rushing yards.

Total Offense

  • Texas: 450.1 yards per game
  • Georgia: 425.3 yards per game

Texas holds a slight advantage in total offensive production.

Defensive Performance

Against the Pass

  • Texas: 143.7 yards allowed per game, 3 touchdowns allowed
  • Georgia: 196.3 yards allowed per game, 12 touchdowns allowed

Texas has been significantly stronger against the pass.

Against the Run

  • Texas: 103.5 yards allowed per game, 9 touchdowns allowed
  • Georgia: 135.8 yards allowed per game, 14 touchdowns allowed

Texas again shows superiority in run defense.

Total Defense

  • Texas: 247.2 yards allowed per game
  • Georgia: 332.1 yards allowed per game

Texas has a clear advantage in overall defensive performance.

Key Players

Texas

  • QB Quinn Ewers: 2307 yards, 24 TDs, 7 INTs
  • RB Tre Wisner: 812 rushing yards, 3 TDs
  • WR Matthew Golden: 576 receiving yards, 8 TDs

Georgia

  • QB Carson Beck: 3429 yards, 28 TDs, 12 INTs
  • RB Trevor Etienne: 477 rushing yards, 7 TDs
  • WR Arian Smith: 709 receiving yards, 4 TDs

Strength of Schedule

  • Texas SOS: 4.51 (29th)
  • Georgia SOS: 5.79 (15th)

Both teams have faced tough SEC competition. Notable results:

  • Texas defeated Oklahoma 34-3 and lost to Georgia 30-15 earlier in the season
  • Georgia lost to Alabama 41-34 and Ole Miss 28-10, but defeated Texas 30-15

What do all of these stats tell us about the game?

Georgia’s answer has been more offense. Their quarterback, Carson Beck, has thrown for 3,429 yards in a season that would have seemed impossible just a decade ago. The Bulldogs have embraced the modern game’s aerial evolution, turning their once-conservative offense into a high-flying circus that treats the forward pass not as a risk but as their primary currency of war.

But Texas presents the more fascinating case study. In an age when defensive coordinators have become the game’s equivalent of medieval archers—hopelessly firing arrows at increasingly sophisticated war machines—the Longhorns have done something remarkable: They’ve built a defense that works.

The numbers are staggering in their improbability: Three passing touchdowns allowed, all season. In the modern SEC, this is like finding a hedge fund that shorted the housing market in 2007. It simply shouldn’t be possible.

“Everyone thought defense was dead,” a Power Five defensive coordinator said anonymously. “What Texas has done… it’s like they’ve found a market inefficiency in football.”

That inefficiency manifests in the most basic statistical comparison: Texas allows 247.2 yards per game. Georgia, with all its championship pedigree and five-star recruits, gives up 332.1. The gap between them – roughly 85 yards – is the difference between a good defense and one rewriting our understanding of what’s possible in modern college football.

Quinn Ewers, Texas’s quarterback, puts up numbers that would have made him a Heisman frontrunner in 2013. In 2024, they almost feel quaint: 2,307 yards, 24 touchdowns. A decade ago, this would have been the story. Now, it’s almost an afterthought to what Texas has built on the other side of the ball.

The irony isn’t lost on anyone following college football’s evolution. Texas, the program that once gave us Vince Young and helped usher in the era of the dual-threat quarterback, has become the last best hope for defensive football. They’ve taken the principles that once made the SEC the nation’s preeminent conference—suffocating defense, controlled offense, and field position—and modernized them for an age when most programs have abandoned them entirely.

Georgia beat this Texas team earlier this year, 30-15. But that game feels like it was played in a different season, maybe even a different era. Since then, Georgia has shown cracks in its armor – losses to Alabama and Ole Miss that suggested maybe, just maybe, the offensive revolution has its limits.

Tomorrow night’s game isn’t just about a championship. It’s about two competing theories of football evolution. Georgia represents the conventional wisdom: that offense is king, that the forward pass has fundamentally altered the sport’s DNA, and that the only way to win is to score more than your opponent can manage.

Texas represents something else: the idea that maybe defense isn’t dead, that with the right combination of scheme, talent, and organizational philosophy, you can still win the way teams used to win, and that innovation in football doesn’t always mean more points, yards, or everything.

The safe bet is on Georgia. Experience matters in games like this. Championship DNA is real. The ability to perform under pressure isn’t just a cliché – it’s a measurable advantage in high-stakes situations.

But there’s something about this Texas team that feels like it’s tapping into something more fundamental about football. They’ve found a way to make defense work in an era when defense isn’t supposed to work.

Tomorrow night, we’ll find out if that’s enough.

Game Prediction Based on The Noise Trade

In high-frequency trading, there’s a phenomenon known as “noise.” It happens when emotional reactions and human behavior temporarily distort the underlying mathematics of the market. Smart traders don’t fight noise—they account for it in their models.

Tomorrow night in Atlanta, we will witness a real-world experiment in football’s version of noise trading. The mathematics remain pristine: Texas’s defense has discovered something fundamental about modern football, reducing opposing offenses to a series of low-probability bets, like a card counter who has figured out how to limit the house edge. The numbers – 247.2 yards allowed per game, three passing touchdowns all season – aren’t just statistics. They’re proof of concept.

But Mercedes-Benz Stadium won’t be a sterile laboratory. Texas’s returned ticket allotment means the building will be packed with Georgia fans, 71,000 traders all betting emotionally on the home team. In financial terms, this is the quintessential “noise trade” – a factor that shouldn’t matter to the underlying mathematics but matters to how those mathematics play out in the real world.

Here’s what makes this fascinating: Texas’s defensive innovation isn’t like the complex derivatives that collapsed under pressure in 2008. It’s more like the simplicity of card counting – a fundamental mathematical advantage that works regardless of the casino’s ambient noise. Their defenders don’t need elaborate verbal communications to maintain perfect leverage, just like a card counter doesn’t need quiet to keep their count.

Quinn Ewers will face the noise directly. His 2,307 passing yards and 24 touchdowns were accumulated in environments where his offensive system could operate at peak efficiency. Tomorrow night, he’ll be trading in a hostile market. But Texas’s offense, like their defense, is built on fundamentals rather than complexity. They don’t try to arbitrage small advantages through elaborate pre-snap adjustments. They take what the market gives them and execute with precision.

Carson Beck and his 3,429 passing yards represent the conventional wisdom of modern football – that offense always wins and that you can score your way out of any problem. He’ll have the crowd behind him, but he’ll still face the same mathematical problem that has stumped every other quarterback: how do you generate explosive plays against a defense that has systematically removed them from the equation?

The smart money says the noise traders—Georgia’s crowd—will impact the market enough to matter. And they will. Texas’s offensive efficiency will drop, and its defensive communication will face challenges it hasn’t seen all season. The math says Texas should win by two touchdowns, but the noise suggests something closer.

Final Score: Texas 27, Georgia 23

But watch what happens in the fourth quarter. Suppose Texas’s defensive innovation is as fundamental as the numbers suggest. In that case, we’ll see something remarkable: a system so mathematically sound that it works even when the market is most irrational. That’s not just a championship victory – it’s proof that someone has solved a problem everyone else thought was unsolvable.

The noise traders will go home disappointed. And by next season, every program in America will be trying to reverse engineer what Texas has built, just like every casino eventually had to change its rules once enough people learned to count cards. Innovation, in football as in markets, has a way of becoming conventional wisdom – right up until the next revolution begins.

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Week 9 Featured Games:The Underdogs, the Upsets, and the Unraveling

Mark Haines on October 26, 2024

Step back from the spreadsheets, the power rankings and the expert predictions – Week 9 featured games are about to remind us why we watch this sport in the first place: for the moments that defy logic and rewrite the script.

Early Game

No. 12 Notre Dame vs. No. 24 Navy

Noon Eastern/9:00 AM Pacific

Network: ABC

This isn’t just a football game; it’s a collision of worlds. Notre Dame, the wounded lion, stumbles into the arena, its playoff hopes hanging by a thread. Five starters down, they’re a symphony orchestra missing half its instruments. And Navy? They’re the barbarians at the gate, 6-0 and averaging 45 points a game, led by Blake Horvath, a quarterback who turns the triple option into a weapon of mass destruction. Imagine Barry Sanders with a playbook designed to make defensive coordinators spontaneously combust. The line moved? You bet it did. The smart money knows: Notre Dame’s defense is built for finesse, not this kind of organized chaos. They’re chess players facing a barroom brawl. If Navy pulls off the upset, it’s not just a win; it’s a statement. A declaration that the Midshipmen belong in the playoff conversation, while the Irish are left wondering where it all went wrong.

Afternoon Games

No. 21 Missouri at No. 15 Alabama

Gametime: 3:30 PM Eastern/12:30 PM Pacific

Network: ABC

The eyes of the college football world are on Tuscaloosa. Not just because Alabama has stumbled – two losses in three games is practically an apocalypse in these parts – but because a new era has dawned. The offensive guru, Kalen DeBoer, takes the reins from the legendary Nick Saban. The pressure is immense. Can DeBoer exorcise the ghosts of Alabama’s recent struggles and establish his reign? Or will Eli Drinkwitz and his Missouri Tigers play the role of party crashers, exposing the vulnerabilities of a transition program? This isn’t just a game; it’s a referendum on the future of Alabama football.  

No. 5 Texas at No. 25 Vanderbilt

Game Time: 4:15 PM Eastern/1:15 Pacific

Network: SEC Network

While Alabama grapples with a new identity, Vanderbilt embraces its unexpected transformation. They’ve slain giants, toppling Alabama and sending shockwaves through the SEC. Now, they face another test: the Texas Longhorns, a team still finding its footing after a humbling loss to Georgia. Diego Pavia, the Commodore quarterback, embodies this new Vanderbilt: fearless, confident, and ready to take on anyone. Texas, meanwhile, needs to rediscover its swagger. Can they overcome the chaos in Nashville and avoid becoming another victim of Vandy’s magic? Or will the Commodores continue their Cinderella story, proving their rise is no fluke?

Evening Game

No. 3 Penn State at Wisconsin

Game Time: 7:30 PM Eastern/4:30 PM Pacific

Network: NBC

The whispers are swirling in Happy Valley. “Ohio State, Ohio State, Ohio State.” It’s the biggest game on Penn State’s horizon, a clash of titans that could decide the Big Ten East. But first, there’s the matter of Wisconsin, a team lurking in the shadows, hungry to play spoiler. Fresh off a bruising battle with USC, Penn State can’t afford to look past this one. Camp Randall at night is a cauldron of noise and fury, a place where dreams go to die. But this Penn State team, led by the cool-headed Drew Allar, has the grit and the talent to silence the doubters. Their defense is a fortress, and Allar is growing into a true field general. Can they weather the storm in Madison and escape with their undefeated season intact? Or will Wisconsin, sensing vulnerability, deliver a knockout blow and send shockwaves through the Big Ten?

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The $87 Million Question: Hugh Freeze and Auburn’s Football Gamble

Mark Haines on October 9, 2024

Auburn University finds itself at a crossroads in the gladiatorial college football arena, where millionaire coaches pace sidelines and billion-dollar TV deals fuel an insatiable machine. The whispers have already started. The faithful readers of CoachesHotSeat.com, those amateur Nostradamuses of the gridiron, are asking the question that sends shivers down the spine of every Auburn fan: Could Hugh Freeze be fired this year?

It’s a question that isn’t just about wins and losses. It’s about cold, hard cash—$87 million of it, to be exact.

That’s the jaw-dropping sum Auburn has either already spent or might have to spend on coaching changes. $67 million shelled out since 2000 to make coaches go away, and potentially another $20 million waiting in the wings for Freeze. It’s a number that would make Wall Street blush and leave most university presidents reaching for the antacid. And now, less than two years into his tenure, Hugh Freeze might be the next name on that expensive list.

Let’s examine the situation at Auburn and see if Freeze will pack his bags before the leaves change color next fall.

The Freeze Gambit

679 days ago, Auburn rolled the dice on Hugh Freeze.

Picture this: A coach with a checkered past but an undeniable offensive mind parachuting into a program desperate to wash away the stench of the Bryan Harsin era. Freeze arrived talking a “big game”. He’d develop quarterbacks. He’d close the talent gap. He’d turn things around “fairly fast.”

Fast forward to today, and Auburn fans wonder if they’ve been sold a bill of goods.

The 2024 season has been a tire fire of epic proportions. Three home losses, including a humiliating defeat to Cal, have left the Tigers staring down the barrel of their fourth straight losing season. Bowl eligibility? That’s a pipe dream at this point.

But here’s the kicker: If Auburn wants to pull the plug on the Freeze experiment on December 1, 2024, it’ll cost them a cool $20,312,500. That’s not a typo. That’s the price of failure in the SEC.

The Quarterback Whisperer Who Lost His Voice

Freeze built his reputation on offensive fireworks and quarterback development. At Arkansas State, Ole Miss, and Liberty, his offenses lit up scoreboards like pinball machines. But at Auburn? The offense has all the potency of a wet firecracker.

Michigan State transfer Payton Thorne was supposed to be the answer. Instead, he’s become the poster child for Freeze’s struggles. Interceptions have become his love language, and Freeze’s public criticism of his signal-caller has raised eyebrows across the college football landscape.

Bo Wallace, who played under Freeze at Ole Miss, didn’t mince words: “We’re approaching the point that he’s thrown so many quarterbacks under the bus that maybe no one wants to play for him?? Don’t be a coward and blame it on kids.”

Ouch.

The $87 Million Elephant in the Room

Now, let’s talk about that $87 million. Since 2000, Auburn has burned through coaches like a teenager with their first credit card. Tommy Tuberville, Gene Chizik, Gus Malzahn, Bryan Harsin – each departure came with a price tag that would make most Fortune 500 companies blush. And if Freeze joins this not-so-illustrious club, the total bill will hit a staggering $87 million.

It’s a number that begs the question: What could Auburn have done with that money instead? How many academic scholarships could it have funded? How many state-of-the-art facilities could it have built? Hell, how many Cam Newtons could it have bought? (That’s a joke, NCAA. Please don’t investigate.)

But here’s the rub: In the arms race that is college football, Auburn isn’t alone. Texas A&M, another SEC school with more money than sense, has reportedly spent nearly $95 million on coaching buyouts in the same timeframe.

It’s madness. But it’s the madness that defines modern college football.

The Recruiting Paradox

Here’s where things get weird. Freeze and his staff are crushing it on the recruiting trail despite the on-field dumpster fire. Auburn’s 2025 class is ranked 3rd nationally. The 2026 class? It’s sitting pretty at 2nd.

It’s like watching a magician pull rabbits out of a hat while the theater burns down around him. Impressive? Sure. But also a little beside the point.

The $20 Million Question

So here we are. Auburn is staring down the barrel of another lost season. They’ve got a coach who can’t seem to develop quarterbacks or win games but can convince 17-year-olds that Auburn is the place to be. They’re facing a potential $20 million buyout for a coach less than two years into his tenure.

What’s a tiger to do?

The coming weeks will be crucial. Games against Oklahoma, Missouri, and the Death Star, which is Alabama, loom large. If Freeze can engineer a miracle turnaround, he might buy himself more time. If not? Well, Auburn might find itself reaching for the checkbook once again.

Whatever happens, one thing is clear: The situation at Auburn is a perfect microcosm of the beautiful, maddening, financially irresponsible world of college football. It’s a world where the pressure to win trumps all, fiscal responsibility is an afterthought, and the next big payday is always just one coaching change away.

As for Hugh Freeze and Auburn? They’re just along for the ride, hoping they can get off before the bill comes due.

What do you think? Should Auburn stick with Freeze?

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The Huddle’s Getting Tense: Week 5’s Hottest Seats Revealed

Mark Haines on September 24, 2024

1. Billy Napier – Florida Gators

First Win, Same Old Problems

Napier finally got a W, but let’s not kid ourselves. Mississippi State was fresh off a loss to Toledo. Florida’s offense looked better, but it was more about Mississippi State’s defensive scheme than Napier’s brilliance.

And the defense? Yikes. Soft zones, missed tackles, and a general sense of panic against an up-tempo offense. If Mississippi State can shred them, imagine what UCF or Tennessee will do.

The 17-point margin is deceptive. This game was a nail-biter until the final minutes.

Nick Saban’s comments on GameDay cut to the heart of the matter. He wasn’t pointing fingers at the coaches but rather at the administration. Florida’s had a revolving door of coaches since the glory days of Spurrier and Meyer. Saban suggested that perhaps the issue lies in the athletic department and the university’s commitment to providing the resources and support necessary for sustained success. It takes more than just hiring a good coach; it takes a culture of winning that permeates the entire program. Gator Nation needs to understand that the solution might lie beyond the sidelines. When this job opens up again, Florida’s administration needs to be ready to demonstrate a real commitment to building a championship program if they want to attract a top-tier coach. Right now, this isn’t a very attractive job.

2. Dave Aranda – Baylor Bears

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