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Texas A&M 2025 Football Season Preview: Can the Aggies Break Through Under Mike Elko?

Mark Haines on July 2, 2025

Everything Texas A&M accomplishes in 2025 hinges on one player.

As the Aggies enter Mike Elko’s second season, the college football world is asking a simple question: Can this program finally escape its eight-win prison? After a frustrating 8-5 campaign that showcased flashes of brilliance followed by crushing disappointment, Texas A&M sits at the most critical juncture in recent memory.

The answer lies entirely with sophomore quarterback Marcel Reed.

The Most Polarizing Player in Texas

The most polarizing quarterback in Texas isn’t Arch Manning.

It’s not Kevin Jennings, Sawyer Robertson, Behren Morton, or Josh Hoover. The signal-caller who holds the most sway in the Lone Star State is Marcel Reed at Texas A&M. As he goes, or doesn’t go, so will the Aggies.

Reed’s 2024 emergence tells two completely different stories:

  • The Promise: 1,864 passing yards, 15 passing touchdowns, 543 rushing yards with seven rushing scores
  • The Reality Check: Just 27.8% completion rate on passes over 20 yards downfield
  • The Competition Factor: 4-0 against teams with a combined 25-26 record, 0-4 against squads with a 34-20 record

Here’s what makes Reed so fascinating: He ranked first among SEC quarterbacks, averaging 4.7 yards per carry, while his 22 total touchdowns ranked second in the SEC among freshmen. But when games mattered most against elite competition, the vertical passing game disappeared.

Head coach Mike Elko knows exactly what needs to change.

The Vertical Passing Game: Make or Break

“A lot of emphasis was placed on improving the downfield passing game,” Elko said. “That’s something we want to get better at.”

This single area of development will determine Texas A&M’s entire ceiling. With improved vertical passing, 10 wins and a College Football Playoff berth isn’t a mirage. Without it, the Aggies land in familiar seven-to-nine-win territory with another meaningless bowl game.

The coaching staff has surrounded Reed with better weapons:

  • Mario Craver (transfer): Explosive after-the-catch ability
  • KC Concepcion (transfer): Proven playmaker who ranks 35th in Pro Football Focus’s Top 50 NFL prospects
  • Jerome Myles (five-star freshman): Immediate impact expected

These additions aren’t just depth moves—they’re designed to give Reed easier reads and explosive play potential without requiring high-leverage throws over the top.

The Foundation is Already Built

Texas A&M returns the sixth-most production in FBS.

The numbers are staggering: 70% of the offense back, 73% of the defense returning, including all seven of their best offensive linemen. This level of continuity is rare in modern college football, and it provides the perfect foundation for a breakthrough season.

The backfield depth is elite:

  • Le’Veon Moss: 765 yards despite injury issues in 2024, now fully healthy
  • Amari Daniels: Proven contributor with 661 rushing yards
  • Rueben Owens: Returning from injury with high expectations

When you combine this rushing attack with an experienced offensive line anchored by potential top NFL draft pick Ar’Maj Reed-Adams, the foundation for offensive success is undeniable.

National Recognition Validates the Hype

ESPN’s preseason Football Power Index ranks Texas A&M as the eighth-best team in America.

This isn’t homer optimism—it’s data-driven recognition of talent and potential:

  • SP+: 15th nationally
  • Athlon Sports: 19th in preseason rankings
  • EA Sports College Football 26: No. 8 team nationally, 4th in SEC

The most telling statistic from 2024? Texas A&M was the highest-scoring SEC team in conference games, averaging 29.4 points in SEC play and exceeding 30 points in five of eight conference games.

That offensive explosion is about to get better.

Recruiting Momentum is Building Championship Culture

Mike Elko’s first full recruiting class ranked No. 6 nationally.

The 2025 class features immediate impact players:

  • Jerome Myles: Five-star wide receiver from Utah
  • Lamont Rogers: Five-star offensive tackle
  • 24 total signees providing depth across all positions

However, the real story is the momentum of 2026. ESPN named Texas A&M a “June recruiting winner” after securing several elite commitments, including five-star cornerback Brandon Arrington and five-star edge Tristian Givens.

Through the additions of top running backs and Rogers’ late commitment, Elko has proven he can win high-level recruiting battles in Texas—something that will pay dividends for years.

The Schedule Sets Up for Success (Or Failure)

Three consecutive home SEC games to start conference play could define the season.

The 2025 schedule provides both opportunity and challenge:

Early Season Setup:

  • UTSA (home opener)
  • Utah State (home)
  • Notre Dame (road test)

Critical Home Stretch:

  • Auburn (home SEC opener)
  • Mississippi State (home)
  • Florida (home)

Season-Defining Road Gauntlet:

  • Arkansas (first trip to Fayetteville since 2013)
  • LSU (always dangerous in Baton Rouge)
  • Missouri (trap game potential)

The season concludes with Texas A&M’s first trip to Austin since 2010—a game that could determine College Football Playoff positioning.

The Defensive Wild Card

This defense has three potential first-round NFL picks.

Pro Football Focus’s Top 50 prospects for the 2026 NFL Draft include:

  • Taurean York (linebacker): 23rd overall
  • Ar’Maj Reed-Adams (offensive line): 28th overall
  • KC Concepcion (wide receiver): 35th overall

The defense allowed just 22.2 points per game in 2024 and returns 73% of its production. With a full year in Elko’s system and improved secondary depth, this unit could be the difference between good and great.

What Could Go Wrong?

Late-season execution remains the biggest concern.

Texas A&M lost three of their final four games in 2024, highlighting persistent issues:

  • Quarterback depth: Recent history of injuries raises concerns despite Jacob Zeno transfer addition
  • Big-play defense: Must limit explosive plays that cost them in key losses
  • High-pressure situations: Proven inability to close out important matchups

The talent is undeniable, but translating potential into consistent performance against elite SEC competition is the ultimate test.

The Verdict: Breakthrough or Bust

Texas A&M has everything needed for a championship run except one thing: proof they can execute when it matters.

The pieces are in place. The coaching staff has demonstrated development ability. The recruiting momentum continues building. But Marcel Reed’s vertical passing development will determine whether this season ends in January playoff games or another December bowl disappointment.

For a program desperate to escape eight-win mediocrity, 2025 represents the perfect storm of talent, experience, and opportunity.

The only question left is execution.

The Next Billion Dollar Game

College football isn’t just a sport anymore—it’s a high-stakes market where information asymmetry separates winners from losers. While the average fan sees only what happens between the sidelines, real insiders trade on the hidden dynamics reshaping programs from the inside out.

Our team has embedded with the power brokers who run this game. From the coaching carousel to NIL deals to transfer portal strategies, we’ve mapped the entire ecosystem with the kind of obsessive detail that would make a hedge fund analyst blush.

Why subscribe? Because in markets this inefficient, information creates alpha. Our subscribers knew which coaches were dead men walking months before the mainstream media caught on. They understood which programs were quietly transforming their recruiting apparatuses while competitors slept.

The smart money is already positioning for 2025. Are you?

Click below—it’s free—and join the small group of people who understand the real value of college football’s new economy.

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Ole Miss 2025 Football Season Preview: Rebels Positioned for Playoff Breakthrough

Mark Haines on July 1, 2025

Ole Miss Football Coach Lane Kiffin has never been closer to his College Football Playoff dream.

After three 10-win seasons in four years and a dominant 52-20 Gator Bowl victory over Duke, the Ole Miss Rebels enter 2025 with the most talented roster in school history. The question is no longer whether they can compete with the SEC elite. The question is whether they can finally break through when it matters most.

The Austin Simmons Era Begins

Jaxson Dart is gone, drafted in the first round by the New York Giants.

Now it’s Austin Simmons’ time to shine. The 6-foot-4 redshirt sophomore completed 19 of 32 passes for 282 yards and two touchdowns in limited 2024 action, but those numbers barely scratch the surface of his potential.

What matters more is what Eli Manning recently said at the Manning Passing Academy: “I’ve been impressed so far with what he’s doing.” When an NFL legend gives that kind of endorsement, people should pay attention.

Here’s what separates Simmons from typical backup quarterbacks:

  • He reclassified in high school to get to Ole Miss faster
  • He’s been living like a college athlete since his sophomore year of high school
  • He stepped away from baseball to focus solely on football
  • He’s spent the entire offseason organizing extra sessions with receivers and linemen

“There’s a lot of competition, we talk a little smack here and there. We’re just all close,” Simmons said about the quarterback room that now includes Division II transfer Trinidad Chambliss, who threw for 2,925 yards and 26 touchdowns while rushing for 1,019 yards and 25 touchdowns at Ferris State.

The depth is there. The talent is there. The question is execution.

Offensive Explosion Waiting to Happen

The 2024 Ole Miss offense was absolutely ridiculous.

526.5 yards per game. 38.6 points per game. Just one turnover per contest. Those aren’t just good numbers. Those are championship-level numbers.

Sure, they lost Tre Harris (1,030 yards) and Jordan Watkins (906 yards), but Lane Kiffin didn’t become one of college football’s premier offensive minds by relying on any single player. He reloads through the transfer portal like other coaches change their socks.

Enter De’Zhaun Stribling from Oklahoma State and a host of other portal additions who will make defensive coordinators lose sleep. The offensive line returns significant experience, anchored by the addition of Maryland transfer Terez Davis.

But here’s the real secret sauce: Charlie Weis Jr. is still calling plays.

The system remains intact. The tempo remains devastating. And now they have a dual-threat quarterback who can extend plays in ways Dart never could.

Defense Ready to Dominate

Pete Golding’s defense was the real story of 2024, and nobody talked about it enough.

14.4 points allowed per game. 80.5 rushing yards surrendered per contest at 2.3 yards per carry. Those numbers would make Nick Saban jealous.

The core returns intact:

  • Linebacker Suntarine Perkins (future NFL first-rounder)
  • Defensive tackle Walter Nolen (projected early-round pick)
  • A secondary reinforced with Clemson transfer Tavoy Feagin
  • South Alabama transfer Ricky Fletcher adding depth
  • ULM safety Wydett Williams bringing experience

“The interior defensive line, built around Mississippi natives, has become a point of pride and an example of Lane Kiffin’s and Golding’s long-term vision,” according to recent reports. This isn’t just talent acquisition. This is program building.

The defensive improvement under Golding has been remarkable, and 2025 could be the year they become truly elite.

Schedule Sets Up Perfectly

Want to know why Vegas has Ole Miss at 8.5 wins? Look at this schedule.

The Rebels open with four straight home games: Georgia State, at Kentucky, Arkansas, Tulane, and LSU all before their first real road test. That’s not just favorable scheduling. That’s a launching pad for a special season.

The make-or-break stretch comes in October:

  • October 18: at Georgia
  • October 25: at Oklahoma

These two games will determine whether Ole Miss makes the playoff or watches from home again. The Georgia game is particularly telling since the Rebels dominated the Bulldogs 28-10 in Oxford last year in what became Kiffin’s signature victory.

November brings three consecutive home games against South Carolina, The Citadel, and Florida before the Egg Bowl at Mississippi State. If Ole Miss can survive October, they should cruise to double-digit wins.

National Respect Finally Arrives

CBS Sports put it perfectly: “Lane Kiffin’s work in the transfer portal helped him take Ole Miss to essentially unprecedented levels. His portal-heavy approach carries more risk this year, but he earned the benefit of the doubt when he led the Rebels to the playoff bubble with a squad built largely upon veteran newcomers.”

The national media isn’t just noticing Ole Miss anymore. They’re expecting them to deliver.

Vegas agrees:

  • 8.5 win total (behind only Alabama, Georgia, and Texas in SEC)
  • Legitimate playoff odds at multiple sportsbooks
  • Consistent top-15 preseason rankings across major outlets

This isn’t hype. This is recognition of sustained excellence.

The Kiffin Evolution

Here’s something most people don’t know about Lane Kiffin: he’s been sober for three and a half years.

“There’s a freedom in not feeling like you need a drink to celebrate a big win or get over a tough loss. There’s a freedom of not having to have acceptance of what some guy writes about you or what the fans think of you or if you’re on the hot seat,” Kiffin recently explained.

This isn’t the same coach who clashed with Nick Saban at Alabama or burned bridges at Tennessee. This is a mature, focused leader who has built something special in Oxford.

His job security has never been stronger. The only question isn’t whether Ole Miss might fire him. It’s whether another program might try to steal him.

Reality Check: What Could Go Wrong

Every great story has potential plot holes, and Ole Miss has a few.

Penalties killed them in 2024 (7.2 per game), often in crucial moments. Red-zone execution was problematic in losses, with touchdowns on just 50 percent of trips compared to 75 percent in wins. The secondary, despite portal additions, allowed 60 percent completion rates and 230.8 passing yards per game.

These aren’t talent issues. These are execution issues.

And execution issues can be fixed.

The Recruiting Foundation

Want to know why this success will continue? Look at the 2025 recruiting class.

Ole Miss secured five of Mississippi’s blue-chip prospects, headlined by five-star receiver Caleb Cunningham. The program’s NIL support and on-field results have created a recruiting momentum that rivals anyone in the SEC.

Building with Mississippi natives has become Kiffin’s signature strategy, creating both immediate impact and long-term sustainability.

Bottom Line: Playoff or Bust

This is it for Ole Miss.

All the pieces are in place. The talent is there. The coaching is elite. The schedule is favorable. The expectations are sky-high.

Lane Kiffin has spent five years building toward this moment. Austin Simmons has spent two years preparing for this opportunity. The program has invested millions in NIL and facilities to support this vision.

The expanded 12-team playoff format gives Ole Miss multiple pathways to achieve their goal. No more excuses about limited spots or impossible standards.

Either the Rebels breakthrough in 2025, or they prove they’re just another program that can’t get over the hump when the lights shine brightest.

The stage is set. The talent is there. The only question left is execution.

And in Oxford, that question is about to be answered.

The Next Billion Dollar Game

College football isn’t just a sport anymore—it’s a high-stakes market where information asymmetry separates winners from losers. While the average fan sees only what happens between the sidelines, real insiders trade on the hidden dynamics reshaping programs from the inside out.

Our team has embedded with the power brokers who run this game. From the coaching carousel to NIL deals to transfer portal strategies, we’ve mapped the entire ecosystem with the kind of obsessive detail that would make a hedge fund analyst blush.

Why subscribe? Because in markets this inefficient, information creates alpha. Our subscribers knew which coaches were dead men walking months before the mainstream media caught on. They understood which programs were quietly transforming their recruiting apparatuses while competitors slept.

The smart money is already positioning for 2025. Are you?

Click below—it’s free—and join the small group of people who understand the real value of college football’s new economy.

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South Carolina Football 2025: The Championship Window Is Wide Open

Mark Haines on June 30, 2025

Shane Beamer is about to find out if last year’s South Carolina football season was real or just a beautiful accident.

After a breakthrough 9-4 season that nobody saw coming, South Carolina enters 2025 with championship expectations for the first time in over a decade. The Gamecocks finished ranked 19th in both major polls, posted a school-record four wins against ranked opponents, and came within inches of their first College Football Playoff appearance.

The question isn’t whether they have talent.

The question is whether they can handle the pressure of being hunted, rather than being the hunters.

“You want high expectations,” Beamer said recently. “Our players and the people in our program, I believe, embrace those high expectations and understand that with those expectations, you have to prepare the right way, that it doesn’t just happen.”

LaNorris Sellers Is Either Going to Be a Superstar or Crack Under Pressure

Everything rides on one player.

LaNorris Sellers isn’t just South Carolina’s quarterback. He’s the most valuable player in the transfer portal who chose to stay home. Sellers holds an On3 NIL Valuation of $2.7 million and turned down massive offers from playoff contenders to remain in Columbia.

His 2024 numbers tell you why everyone wanted him:

  • 2,534 passing yards with 18 touchdowns
  • 674 rushing yards with seven touchdowns
  • Just seven interceptions on 65.6% completion rate
  • 6-0 record in his final six starts with 1,917 total yards

But here’s what separates Sellers from other “promising” quarterbacks: he got better as the season went on. Over his final six starts of the regular season, Sellers helped South Carolina go 6-0 with 1,917 yards of total offense and 17 touchdowns. When the lights got brighter, he shone brighter.

ESPN ranked him 7th in their Heisman Trophy predictions. That’s not hype. That’s recognition that Sellers has the tools to be elite in the SEC.

The pressure? Enormous. The upside? Even bigger.

Dylan Stewart Might Be the Best Pass Rusher You’ve Never Heard Of

While everyone talks about Sellers, Dylan Stewart might be South Carolina’s best player.

The sophomore edge rusher was a unanimous Freshman All-American after posting 6.5 sacks and 10.5 tackles for loss as a true freshman. But numbers don’t tell the whole story. Stewart’s 48 generated pressures were 21 more than the next true freshman pass rusher in college football.

When asked which quarterback he most wanted to sack in 2025, Stewart’s response was perfect:

“Everybody. I like to play football. I like to hit people.”

That’s the mentality that separates good players from great ones.

Stewart returns to anchor a defense that must replace multiple NFL-bound stars, including All-American safety Nick Emmanwori and SEC Defensive Player of the Year Kyle Kennard. The Gamecocks added 10 defensive transfers to maintain their identity, but Stewart is the irreplaceable piece that makes everything work.

The Transfer Portal Became South Carolina’s Secret Weapon

Innovative programs no longer only recruit high school players.

They strategically attack the transfer portal to fill specific needs. South Carolina’s approach was surgical in its precision, identifying weaknesses as early as 2024 and finding proven solutions.

Key additions that will impact immediately:

  • Air Noland (QB, Ohio State): Elite backup with starting experience
  • Rahsul Faison (RB, Utah State): Explosive runner who averaged 7+ yards per carry
  • Nick Sharpe, Boaz Stanley, Rodney Newsom Jr. (OL): Three interior linemen to protect Sellers
  • 10 defensive transfers to replace NFL departures

The one area they didn’t address? Wide receiver.

South Carolina’s receiver room produced zero 400-yard receivers in 2024. Joshua Simon, a tight end, led the team with 519 yards. The development of Nyck Harbor and Mazeo Bennett Jr., plus incoming freshman speedster Malik Clark, will determine whether the passing game reaches its ceiling.

This gamble either pays off huge or becomes their biggest weakness.

The Schedule Is Brutal (And That Might Be Perfect)

South Carolina faces seven top-25 teams from 2024.

Here’s the gauntlet:

  • August 31: vs Virginia Tech (Atlanta) – Beamer faces his father’s former program
  • October 11: at LSU – First win in Baton Rouge since 1994
  • October 18: vs Oklahoma – Revenge game at home
  • October 25: vs Alabama – Another revenge game
  • November 1: at Ole Miss – Road test in hostile environment
  • November 15: at Texas A&M – Late-season trap game

“It’s a former SEC West-heavy schedule,” Beamer told SEC Network. “That’s basically what the month of October is.”

But here’s why this brutal schedule might be perfect timing: South Carolina has championship-level talent and needs championship-level tests to prove it. No more sneaking up on people. No more moral victories. Win or go home.

The Gamecocks have the talent to compete with anyone on this list.

Recruiting Success Creates Long-Term Sustainability

Championship programs recruit at championship levels.

South Carolina’s 2025 recruiting class ranks in the nation’s top 20, featuring four four-star prospects who could contribute immediately. This represents a fundamental shift in how elite prospects view the program.

The standouts who could impact Year 1:

  • Malik Clark (WR): 4.39 speed, who addresses receiver depth
  • Lex Cyrus (WR): Another speed threat for the passing game
  • Multiple defensive prospects to maintain depth

This recruiting momentum reflects South Carolina’s elevated status under Beamer. Elite prospects now see Columbia as a pathway to NFL success, not just a stepping stone.

The foundation is being built for sustained excellence, not just one magical season.

Vegas Knows Something Everyone Else Is Missing

South Carolina’s win total sits at 7.5 games.

That number reflects both the program’s trajectory and the difficulty of its schedule. Vegas isn’t predicting collapse. They’re acknowledging that championship-level talent faces championship-level competition.

For South Carolina to reach the College Football Playoff, they need:

  • 8+ regular season wins
  • Competitive performances in losses
  • 1-2 signature victories over ranked opponents

The pieces are in place: elite quarterback play, a dominant pass rusher, strategic roster additions, and proven coaching. But the margin for error is razor-thin.

“There’s still a great hunger for what we didn’t accomplish,” Beamer said during an appearance on Josh Pate’s show. “They’ve been very purposeful, very driven since they came back and that’s exciting to see.”

The Verdict: This Is Make-or-Break Time

South Carolina enters 2025 as college football’s most fascinating storyline.

The talent level is undeniable. Sellers and Stewart represent two of the SEC’s most dynamic players. The coaching staff has proven they can develop talent and win big games. The infrastructure continues improving under Beamer’s leadership.

But championship expectations change everything.

No more flying under the radar. No more “just happy to be here” mentality. Every opponent will bring their best shot. Every game becomes a referendum on whether South Carolina belongs among the elite.

The 2025 season will answer the ultimate question: Was 2024 a launching pad or a ceiling?

With Sellers under center and Stewart terrorizing opposing quarterbacks, the Gamecocks have the foundational pieces to make their first College Football Playoff appearance. The championship window is wide open in Columbia.

Now comes the ultimate test of whether they can walk through it.

The Next Billion Dollar Game

College football isn’t just a sport anymore—it’s a high-stakes market where information asymmetry separates winners from losers. While the average fan sees only what happens between the sidelines, real insiders trade on the hidden dynamics reshaping programs from the inside out.

Our team has embedded with the power brokers who run this game. From the coaching carousel to NIL deals to transfer portal strategies, we’ve mapped the entire ecosystem with the kind of obsessive detail that would make a hedge fund analyst blush.

Why subscribe? Because in markets this inefficient, information creates alpha. Our subscribers knew which coaches were dead men walking months before the mainstream media caught on. They understood which programs were quietly transforming their recruiting apparatuses while competitors slept.

The smart money is already positioning for 2025. Are you?

Click below—it’s free—and join the small group of people who understand the real value of college football’s new economy.

Free Subscription
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Kentucky Football 2025: Mark Stoops’ Last Stand

Mark Haines on June 27, 2025

What happens when a coach with a $37.5 million buyout lands on one of college football’s hottest seats?

After a disastrous 4-8 season that snapped Kentucky’s eight-year bowl streak, the longest-tenured coach in the SEC finds himself on the hot seat. The Wildcats managed just one SEC victory in 2024. They averaged a league-worst 308.5 yards per game offensively. They finished with the program’s worst record since Stoops’ inaugural season in 2013.

The pressure couldn’t be more explicit.

As one anonymous SEC coach told Athlon Sports, “This is a make-or-break year for the future of this program. He’s got a very friendly contract that makes him hard to fire, but right now, it’s hard to look at the overall roster here and think they’re keeping pace with programs like Vanderbilt and South Carolina, who changed with the times.”

Another losing season would almost certainly end Stoops’ tenure, regardless of his contract extension, which runs through 2031, with a buyout approaching $37.5 million.

The Quarterback Gamble That Changes Everything

Everything about Kentucky’s 2025 season hinges on one player.

Zach Calzada arrives from Incarnate Word as Kentucky’s most experienced option after completing 65% of his passes for 3,791 yards, 35 touchdowns, and just nine interceptions in 2024. His journey back to the SEC represents both promise and risk for a program desperate for stability at the position.

Here’s what makes Calzada intriguing:

  • SEC pedigree from his memorable 2021 performance at Texas A&M
  • Threw for 285 yards and three touchdowns in a stunning 41-38 upset of top-ranked Alabama
  • Earned SEC Offensive Player of the Week honors for that performance
  • Brings leadership and mobility to an offense that ranked 119th nationally in scoring

“He’s battle-tested,” offensive coordinator Bush Hamdan said of Calzada. “He’s experienced the highs and the lows. This league is hard, but so is Zach.”

The 24-year-old quarterback’s ability to extend plays and avoid sacks could prove crucial behind an offensive line that allowed 2.1 sacks per game in 2024.

Complete Roster Reconstruction Through the Portal

Kentucky’s offseason approach bordered on desperation.

The Wildcats brought in 26 transfer portal additions while losing 29 players, fundamentally reshaping a roster that managed just 20.6 points per game in 2024. Only 40 players from last year’s team return. That’s a retention rate of just 47 percent.

The most dramatic changes occurred at these positions:

  • Wide receiver: Added five scholarship transfers and five high school signees while retaining only three players from 2024
  • Offensive line: Brought in Alex Wollschlaeger (Bowling Green), Cameron Jones (James Madison), and Shiyazh Pete (New Mexico State)
  • Defense: Added David Gusta (Washington State), Mi’Quise Humphrey-Grace (South Dakota), and Lorenzo Cowan (USC)

Key receiver additions include:

  • Kendrick Law from Alabama
  • Tory Stellato from Clemson
  • Ashton Cozart from SMU/Oregon

“We set that precedent right from the beginning,” Stoops said about integrating the new additions. “We always want to be player-led and player-led in the accountability phase, and these guys are working at it.”

The Schedule From Hell Awaits

Want to know why Vegas has Kentucky’s win total at just 4.5 games?

The Wildcats face one of the most challenging schedules in college football. They’ll host Ole Miss, Texas, Tennessee, and Florida at Kroger Field. All four opponents will likely be ranked. Road games await at South Carolina, Georgia, Auburn, Vanderbilt, and rival Louisville.

According to Sports Illustrated’s analysis: “Realistically, all nine of these teams could be ranked this season, making this one of the toughest schedules Coach Stoops will have played during his time in Lexington.”

The numbers tell the story:

  • Vegas win total: 4.5 games at FanDuel, 5.5 at DraftKings
  • Early spread projections show Kentucky favored in only four games
  • Non-conference games against Toledo, Eastern Michigan, and Tennessee Tech provide the only realistic early victories

The SEC gauntlet begins immediately after.

Cultural Reset and Leadership Challenges

How do you build team chemistry when 31 new players walk through the door?

Stoops launched the “Yearbook” program to help players learn each other’s names and conducted home visits to foster personal bonds. This cultural emphasis represents a direct response to the challenge of integrating so many new faces while maintaining standards.

“I love this place. I’ve been here 12 years, going on 13, and I promise you — I’ll be honest with you, I’m emotional right now talking about it because my ass wants to get back to the office and get to work to make this team better,” Stoops told KSR in March.

The emotional weight of the situation is obvious.

The coaching staff remains largely intact, providing continuity during turbulent times:

  • Kevin Barbay joined as an offensive analyst to assist Hamdan
  • Brad Lambert was hired to work with the secondary
  • Focus on accountability and player-led leadership continues

Special Teams Excellence Remains

Kentucky’s special teams unit represents one of the few bright spots.

Punter Aidan Laros returns after earning All-SEC second-team honors. Kicker Alex Raynor brings back elite accuracy following a 93.8 percent field goal and 96.3 percent extra point conversion rate in 2024. These specialists provide the “hidden yardage” advantages that could prove decisive in close games.

The return game lost Barion Brown’s explosive ability, but the Wildcats have prioritized special teams as a way to create scoring opportunities when the offense stalls.

The Buyout Factor Creates an Unusual Dynamic

Stoops’ massive contract extension creates a complex situation.

The $37.5 million buyout makes firing him financially burdensome for Kentucky, providing some insulation despite fan frustration following back-to-back losing seasons. However, the pressure from fans and administration continues to mount.

Here’s what the numbers show:

  • Season ticket sales dropped 12.7 percent
  • Only a few hundred fans attended the spring game
  • Clear disconnect between fanbase and program leadership

This tension between fiscal reality and performance expectations creates an unusual situation where Stoops has job security despite on-field failures.

What Success Actually Looks Like in 2025

Bowl eligibility represents the absolute minimum requirement.

Most analysts project that Kentucky will finish with four to five wins. Six victories would require significant improvement and several upsets. The best-case scenario involves Calzada playing efficiently, the offensive line gelling quickly, and at least one transfer receiver emerging as a playmaker.

As Sports Illustrated observed: “If Stoops gets this team to a bowl game, it will be the best job he has done in a season during his time at Kentucky.”

The keys to exceeding expectations:

  • Reduce turnovers from 1.9 per game average in 2024
  • Improve red zone efficiency from 43 percent touchdown rate
  • Generate consistent defensive pressure after losing key pass rushers
  • Win close games through special teams excellence

The Bottom Line: Prove It or Lose It

Kentucky football stands at a crossroads.

Stoops has spent 12 seasons building the Wildcats from SEC doormat to occasional contender, achieving unprecedented consistency with eight consecutive bowl appearances from 2016-2023. Recent regression has erased much of that goodwill and placed his future in jeopardy.

The 2025 season will determine whether Kentucky’s recent success was sustainable progress or merely a brief peak that will return to historical norms.

For Mark Stoops, 2025 isn’t just another season in Lexington—it’s his final audition.

The Next Billion Dollar Game

College football isn’t just a sport anymore—it’s a high-stakes market where information asymmetry separates winners from losers. While the average fan sees only what happens between the sidelines, real insiders trade on the hidden dynamics reshaping programs from the inside out.

Our team has embedded with the power brokers who run this game. From the coaching carousel to NIL deals to transfer portal strategies, we’ve mapped the entire ecosystem with the kind of obsessive detail that would make a hedge fund analyst blush.

Why subscribe? Because in markets this inefficient, information creates alpha. Our subscribers knew which coaches were dead men walking months before the mainstream media caught on. They understood which programs were quietly transforming their recruiting apparatuses while competitors slept.

The smart money is already positioning for 2025. Are you?

Click below—it’s free—and join the small group of people who understand the real value of college football’s new economy.

Free Subscription
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Tennessee Football 2025: The Year Everything Changes

Mark Haines on June 26, 2025

Tennessee football is about to find out if its playoff run was real or just a beautiful accident.

After reaching their first College Football Playoff in program history, the Volunteers face the ultimate test of sustainability. The stars who carried them to new heights are gone. The quarterback who led their breakthrough season transferred to UCLA. The record-setting running back graduated.

What remains is a program trying to prove that lightning can strike twice in Knoxville.

The Quarterback Situation Is Either Going to Make or Break Everything

Joey Aguilar holds the keys to Tennessee’s entire season.

The UCLA transfer arrives in Knoxville as the presumptive starter, but here’s the problem nobody wants to talk about: he’s completely unproven in Josh Heupel’s system. Aguilar began his career at New Mexico before transferring to UCLA, where he threw for modest numbers. Now he’s expected to replace Nico Iamaleava, who guided Tennessee to its first playoff appearance.

The depth chart behind Aguilar tells an even more concerning story:

  • Redshirt freshman Jake Merklinger has almost zero game experience
  • True freshman George MacIntyre is a five-star prospect who isn’t ready to start immediately
  • The entire quarterback room combined has fewer SEC snaps than most backup quarterbacks

This isn’t just a position battle. This is the foundation of everything Tennessee hopes to accomplish in 2025.

They Lost Their Entire Offensive Identity in One Offseason

Dylan Sampson’s departure represents more than just losing a running back.

Sampson wasn’t just Tennessee’s leading rusher in 2024. He was their entire offensive identity, racking up 1,491 yards and 22 touchdowns while setting multiple program records. When Tennessee needed a first down, they handed the ball to Sampson. When they needed to control the clock, they gave it to Sampson. When they needed to score in the red zone, Sampson was their answer.

Now he’s gone, along with:

  • Their top three wide receivers from 2024
  • Multiple starting offensive linemen
  • The continuity that made Heupel’s tempo offense work

Tennessee’s coaching staff is betting that they can replace elite production with unproven talent and additions from the transfer portal. That’s a massive gamble in the unforgiving SEC.

The Defense Might Be the Only Thing Keeping This Season Afloat

Here’s what most people are missing about Tennessee’s 2025 outlook.

While everyone focuses on the offensive losses, the defense returns the core of a unit that allowed just 16.1 points per game last season. That’s not just good. That’s elite by any standard, especially in a conference known for explosive offenses.

The secondary brings back proven playmakers:

  • Will Brooks and Jermod McCoy combined for eight interceptions in 2024
  • The linebacker corps maintains experienced depth across all positions
  • Defensive coordinator Tim Banks returns with a proven system

If Tennessee’s defense can maintain its 2024 level of play, it can keep games close while the offense figures out its new identity. That’s not a championship formula, but it’s a path to respectability during a transition year.

Recruiting Success Creates Long-Term Optimism

Tennessee’s 2025 recruiting class ranks 11th nationally and 8th in the SEC.

That’s not just a number. That’s validation that Josh Heupel’s program has staying power beyond one magical playoff season. The class includes 25 new additions, with 18 blue-chip prospects who provide both immediate help and future potential.

Five-star quarterback George MacIntyre represents the future of the position. While he’s unlikely to start immediately, his presence provides both insurance and long-term vision. This isn’t about 2025. This is about building something sustainable.

The recruiting momentum extends across every position group:

  • Multiple offensive linemen to rebuild depth after graduation
  • Defensive additions to maintain the unit’s elite performance
  • Skill position players who can contribute immediately

The Schedule Offers a Lifeline During the Transition

Tennessee’s 2025 schedule might be perfectly timed for a rebuilding year.

The season opens against Syracuse at a neutral site, providing an opportunity to work out early kinks against manageable competition. Non-conference games against East Tennessee State and UAB offer additional tune-up opportunities before SEC play intensifies.

The conference slate includes the usual SEC gauntlet, but with key games at home:

  • Georgia visits Neyland Stadium in what could be a season-defining moment
  • Alabama comes to Knoxville for another massive test
  • Oklahoma’s first trip to Tennessee as an SEC opponent

Road games at Florida, Kentucky, and Mississippi State present challenges, but these are winnable contests if Tennessee can establish early momentum and build confidence with new personnel.

Vegas Knows Something Everyone Else Is Missing

The betting line tells the real story about Tennessee’s 2025 prospects.

Oddsmakers set Tennessee’s win total at 8.5 games. That’s not the number of a program in freefall. That’s the projection of a team expected to remain competitive while navigating significant roster turnover.

This projection acknowledges both the losses and the foundation that remains. Josh Heupel has proven he can develop quarterbacks and maximize offensive potential. The defensive infrastructure remains intact. The recruiting pipeline provides both immediate help and future promise.

Bowl eligibility represents the baseline expectation, with upside potential if the quarterback situation stabilizes quickly.

The Foundation Still Exists for Something Special

Here’s what separates Tennessee from other programs dealing with similar transitions.

Josh Heupel returns for his fifth season with a proven track record of player development and system implementation. His ability to identify and maximize talent gives Tennessee a competitive advantage that extends beyond pure roster composition.

The coaching staff’s continuity provides stability during uncertain times:

  • Offensive coordinator Joey Halzle knows the system inside and out
  • Defensive coordinator Tim Banks orchestrated one of Tennessee’s best defensive seasons ever
  • Position coaches have established relationships and recruiting pipelines

Success Will Be Measured Differently in 2025

Tennessee’s 2025 season isn’t about matching their playoff appearance.

It’s about proving the program’s recent success wasn’t a fluke while building toward sustained excellence. The development of young talent matters just as much as wins and losses. Maintaining competitive standards becomes crucial for long-term momentum.

The combination of quarterback uncertainty, offensive reconstruction, and defensive continuity creates a unique dynamic. How Tennessee navigates these challenges will determine not only its 2025 record but also the trajectory of Heupel’s entire tenure.

This is the year Tennessee discovers whether they’re building something lasting or whether 2024 was just a beautiful moment that won’t be repeated anytime soon.

The Next Billion Dollar Game

College football isn’t just a sport anymore—it’s a high-stakes market where information asymmetry separates winners from losers. While the average fan sees only what happens between the sidelines, real insiders trade on the hidden dynamics reshaping programs from the inside out.

Our team has embedded with the power brokers who run this game. From the coaching carousel to NIL deals to transfer portal strategies, we’ve mapped the entire ecosystem with the kind of obsessive detail that would make a hedge fund analyst blush.

Why subscribe? Because in markets this inefficient, information creates alpha. Our subscribers knew which coaches were dead men walking months before the mainstream media caught on. They understood which programs were quietly transforming their recruiting apparatuses while competitors slept.

The smart money is already positioning for 2025. Are you?

Click below—it’s free—and join the small group of people who understand the real value of college football’s new economy.

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Texas Longhorns Arch Manning Era Is About To Change Everything

Mark Haines on June 25, 2025

College football has a new king waiting to be crowned courtesy of the Texas Longhorns.

The Texas Longhorns enter 2025 as the consensus national championship favorite, and it’s not even close. After a 13-3 season that ended one game short of glory, Steve Sarkisian’s program has reloaded with the nation’s top recruiting class and the most anticipated quarterback in college football history.

The pressure is suffocating. The expectations are sky-high. And Arch Manning is ready.

Everyone Is Betting On Texas (And Here’s Why)

ESPN’s Paul Finebaum didn’t mince words about Texas’s title chances.

“Absolutely,” Finebaum said during a Get Up appearance. “They have Arch Manning, in case you have not gotten that email from the front office. He is expected to be much better than Quinn Ewers. I was not that impressed with Quinn Ewers last year. I think Arch Manning, had he come in during the Cotton Bowl, may have had a better shot, may have even beaten Ohio State.”

The Manning hype isn’t just media noise—it’s backed by elite production in limited action:

  • 67.8% completion percentage in 2024
  • 939 passing yards with 9 touchdowns, 2 interceptions
  • Four rushing touchdowns show dual-threat ability
  • 10.4 yards per attempt, indicating explosive play capability

On3 captured the sentiment perfectly: “Manning was good enough in his relief action at quarterback early in the 2024 season that there were at least some calls for him to take over as the starter late in the year. Steve Sarkisian stuck with Quinn Ewers, of course, but the luxury to have a backup as capable as Manning was unmistakable.”

Translation: The apprenticeship is over.

The Supporting Cast Is Championship-Caliber

Here’s what most people miss about Texas—Manning isn’t walking into a rebuild.

The offense that averaged 437.5 yards per game returns its core playmakers. The defense that allowed just 283.4 yards per game brings back its stars. This isn’t a hope-and-pray situation.

Key returnees who will define Texas’s success:

  • Quintrevion Wisner (RB): 1,064 yards, 4.7 yards per carry
  • Jaydon Blue (RB): 730 yards, 5.4 yards per carry
  • Anthony Hill Jr. (LB): 17 tackles for loss, 8 sacks
  • Colin Simmons (DE): 9 sacks, 14 tackles for loss as a freshman
  • Ryan Wingo (WR): Emerging star with 800+ yards combined with Lockett

The portal additions show Sarkisian’s strategic thinking:

  • Emmett Mosley (WR) from Stanford
  • Jack Endries (TE) from California
  • Matthew Caldwell (QB) from Troy as Manning’s backup

This isn’t rebuilding. This is reloading.

The Recruiting Machine Just Hit Another Level

Want to know how elite programs stay elite?

They sign the nation’s No. 1 recruiting class while competing for national championships. Texas just did exactly that with their 2025 class featuring four five-star prospects and 17 ESPN 300 players.

The crown jewel? Justus Terry, the No. 8 overall prospect who shocked the college football world by choosing Texas over Georgia, Alabama, and Auburn.

Sarkisian’s reaction said everything: “I thought we signed a really nice defensive lineman class with him, (Josiah) Sharma, (Myron) Charles, and then obviously our EDGE players coming in so it was a nice ending to the early signing period for us. I think it made us feel really good that this is a balanced class but we addressed some real needs and obviously in our conference it starts up front and most notably the defensive front.”

The talent pipeline is overflowing:

  • Jonah Williams (S): No. 8 overall prospect, multi-sport athlete
  • Kaliq Lockett (WR): Five-star playmaker
  • Justus Terry (DT): Elite interior presence
  • Multiple immediate contributors across both sides of the ball

ESPN noticed: “The Longhorns finished with ESPN’s No. 1 ranked recruiting class, inking 17 ESPN 300 prospects and closing by winning a battle with Georgia for Terry, the No. 8 overall recruit.”

The Schedule Will Test Championship Mettle Immediately

August 30th in Columbus, Ohio will tell us everything we need to know.

Texas opens against defending national champion Ohio State in a rematch of the Cotton Bowl semifinal. It’s the ultimate litmus test for Manning and a completely retooled roster.

Why this game matters more than you think:

  • Both teams return less than 50% of their production from 2024
  • Ohio State lost 14 players to the NFL Draft (most in the country)
  • Texas lost 12 players to the NFL Draft (school record)
  • Manning has never attempted a pass in a true road environment

The rest of the schedule includes manageable non-conference games against San Jose State, UTEP, and Sam Houston before SEC play begins. But the conference slate presents multiple championship-defining moments:

Road tests that will define the season:

  • At Florida (October 4)
  • At Georgia (November 15)
  • At Kentucky, Mississippi State (various dates)

Home rivalries to close the season:

  • Arkansas (November 22)
  • Texas A&M (November 29)

Between facing Ohio State in Week 1 and Georgia in Week 12, the Longhorns won’t see a single opponent that finished 2024 ranked in the CFP Top 25.

The Biggest Concerns Are Fixable (But Critical)

Every championship contender has weaknesses.

Texas’s 2024 flaws were specific and costly: negative turnover margin (-0.3 per game), excessive penalties (6.4 per game), and red zone inefficiency in big games. The good news? These are correctable issues, not talent deficiencies.

The offensive line rebuild presents the biggest challenge:

  • Four NFL departures leave massive holes
  • Manning’s protection depends on unproven players
  • Quick-passing game must compensate for inexperience

But there’s reason for optimism. CBS Sports noted: “A couple of tipped passes led to two costly interceptions from Ewers in that meeting. Tipped passes were a season-long issue for the Longhorns, and Manning’s mobility and pocket presence should help resolve that problem in 2025.”

Manning’s skill set addresses Texas’s biggest problems in 2024.

The Championship Window Is Wide Open

Everything is aligning for Texas to capture its first national title since 2005.

The 12-team playoff format provides margin for error previous Longhorn teams never had. The financial investment and recruiting success create sustainable excellence. The coaching staff has proven it can compete at the highest level.

Finebaum’s final verdict: “He is going to be the leader of this team. They reloaded in the portal, to the tune of many millions and millions of dollars. I think Texas, other than having to go to Ohio State Week 1, is in great shape.”

The pieces are in place. The talent is elite. The expectations are championship-or-bust.

Manning’s mobility and leadership give Texas a golden opportunity to build on the foundation Ewers established over the past two seasons. The question isn’t whether the Longhorns belong among college football’s elite—they’ve already proven that.

The question is whether they can seize their championship moment when it arrives.

The Arch Manning era begins now.

The Next Billion Dollar Game

College football isn’t just a sport anymore—it’s a high-stakes market where information asymmetry separates winners from losers. While the average fan sees only what happens between the sidelines, real insiders trade on the hidden dynamics reshaping programs from the inside out.

Our team has embedded with the power brokers who run this game. From the coaching carousel to NIL deals to transfer portal strategies, we’ve mapped the entire ecosystem with the kind of obsessive detail that would make a hedge fund analyst blush.

Why subscribe? Because in markets this inefficient, information creates alpha. Our subscribers knew which coaches were dead men walking months before the mainstream media caught on. They understood which programs were quietly transforming their recruiting apparatuses while competitors slept.

The smart money is already positioning for 2025. Are you?

Click below—it’s free—and join the small group of people who understand the real value of college football’s new economy.

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Alabama Football 2025 Season Preview: The Year Everything Must Come Together

Mark Haines on June 24, 2025

Alabama football’s 2025 season will define Kalen DeBoer’s tenure.

After a 9-4 debut that fell short of Alabama’s championship standards, the second-year head coach faces immense pressure to return the program to playoff contention. The message from the college football world is crystal clear: another disappointing campaign won’t be tolerated in Tuscaloosa.

As one anonymous SEC coach told Athlon Sports, “Going 9-4 isn’t going to be tolerated at Alabama for very long. The expectations define this place.”

The Foundation Exists, But the Cracks Are Showing

Alabama’s 2024 season revealed a program caught between elite talent and inconsistent execution.

The numbers tell the story of a team that dominated at home but struggled when it mattered most:

  • 7-0 at home, averaging 472 yards and 42.3 points per game
  • 2-3 on the road, averaging just 353.8 yards and 19.6 points per game
  • 2.5 turnovers per game in losses vs. 1.2 turnovers per game in wins
  • Critical giveaways cost them against Vanderbilt, Tennessee, Oklahoma, and Michigan

Expert Cody Goodwin from Bama247 put it bluntly: “Gotta make the playoffs. They did not make the playoffs last year. You can’t leave it up to chance like that. You gotta find a way to drive the hammer home.”

The talent was there, but the results weren’t.

The Quarterback Question That Changes Everything

Everything hinges on one position.

Jalen Milroe’s departure leaves a massive void after his 36 total touchdowns and 3,570 scrimmage yards in 2024. As that anonymous SEC coach noted, “The biggest question will be quarterback, obviously.”

Three quarterbacks will battle for the starting job:

  • Ty Simpson: Third-year player with the most experience in the system
  • Austin Mack: Washington transfer who followed DeBoer but has limited game action
  • Keelon Russell: Five-star freshman ranked as the No. 1 player in the country by Rivals

Russell represents the most intriguing option. The Duncanville, Texas native threw for 4,177 yards and 55 touchdowns with just four interceptions as a senior. According to 247Sports, Russell ranks as the highest-rated recruit to ever sign with Alabama.

DeBoer made his expectations clear: “I think a lot of it is, we want that playmaker. We want that guy. I don’t want just a game manager out there.”

The quarterback competition will determine Alabama’s ceiling.

Strategic Roster Building Through the Portal

Alabama attacked their weaknesses with surgical precision.

Rather than chasing stars, the Crimson Tide made calculated additions to address specific problems from 2024:

  • Colorado LB Nikhai Hill-Green: Second-leading tackler at Colorado with 82 stops
  • Texas A&M G Kam Dewberry: Proven guard to shore up offensive line depth
  • Four-star OT recruits Jackson Lloyd and Mal Waldrep: Future building blocks

The offensive line received particular attention after allowing 25 sacks in 2024. Alabama’s inability to protect the quarterback and establish consistent rushing on the road directly contributed to their most devastating losses.

“He’s got an opportunity to make a pretty big impact this season,” Goodwin said about Hill-Green. “He offers a lot in the way of speed. He’s a pretty sure tackler.”

This wasn’t roster building for the sake of it—this was problem-solving.

A Schedule That Demands Immediate Excellence

The 2025 schedule will test every improvement Alabama has made.

Opening at Florida State on August 30 marks the first time Alabama begins a season on the road since the 2020 season. But the real test comes three weeks later at Georgia on September 27.

FOX Sports analyst Joel Klatt explained the stakes: “This is a huge early test for Kalen DeBoer in year two. If Bama wins by the way, there’s a bunch of winnable games after this.”

The schedule breakdown reveals both opportunity and danger:

Key Home Games:

  • LSU (November 8)
  • Oklahoma (November 15)
  • Tennessee (October 18)

Critical Road Tests:

  • Florida State (August 30)
  • Georgia (September 27)
  • South Carolina (October 25)
  • Auburn (November 29)

Alabama holds a 10-game home winning streak against Tennessee dating back to 2003. The Iron Bowl at Auburn presents a chance to win three consecutive games at Jordan-Hare Stadium for the first time in series history.

Every game matters when playoff selection is on the line.

Defensive Identity Under Kane Wommack

The defense showed flashes of dominance but needs to finish plays.

Alabama forced 28 takeaways in 2024, ranking sixth nationally with 18 interceptions. However, they managed just 25 sacks and failed to score a single non-offensive touchdown despite creating numerous opportunities.

Key returners provide hope for improvement:

  • LB Deontae Lawson: 76 tackles, 4 pass deflections, 2 sacks before injury
  • LB Justin Jefferson: Veteran presence and proven tackler
  • Transfer LB Nikhai Hill-Green: Speed and sure tackling from Colorado

The defensive line must replace significant production while integrating elite recruiting talent. Five-star defensive end prospects and four-star edge rushers provide optimism for improved pass rush in Wommack’s second season.

Creating turnovers is great—turning them into points is better.

Championship Expectations and Playoff Pressure

The mandate couldn’t be clearer.

Alabama enters 2025 with the third-best odds (+500) to win the SEC Championship according to FanDuel Sportsbook. More importantly, they face immense pressure to secure a spot in the expanded 12-team College Football Playoff after missing the inaugural field.

ESPN’s SP+ projects approximately 9.5 wins for Alabama, suggesting a team capable of playoff contention with upside for more. But projections mean nothing without execution.

Historical precedent supports optimism:

  • Four of Alabama’s five national championship coaches improved in year two
  • Only Frank Thomas regressed (9-1 to 8-2) before winning the title in 1934
  • DeBoer’s track record suggests confidence in reaching baseline expectations

As DeBoer acknowledged, “Now we understand what this place is all about. All together, the relationships now are there with our players; we can just really take it to the next level.”

Making the playoffs isn’t just a goal—it’s a requirement.

The Bottom Line: No More Excuses

Alabama’s 2025 season represents the ultimate referendum on Kalen DeBoer’s vision.

The talent is undeniable. The recruiting momentum is strong. The schedule provides opportunities for statement victories. But as that anonymous SEC coach reminded us, “this is a new era. Bama’s not a surefire lock every season.”

DeBoer has had two years to build his foundation. He’s made strategic additions through recruiting and the portal. He’s identified and addressed the specific weaknesses that cost Alabama in 2024.

Now comes the hardest part: proving it works when everything is on the line.

For Kalen DeBoer and Alabama football, 2025 isn’t just another season—it’s the year everything must come together.

The Next Billion Dollar Game

College football isn’t just a sport anymore—it’s a high-stakes market where information asymmetry separates winners from losers. While the average fan sees only what happens between the sidelines, real insiders trade on the hidden dynamics reshaping programs from the inside out.

Our team has embedded with the power brokers who run this game. From the coaching carousel to NIL deals to transfer portal strategies, we’ve mapped the entire ecosystem with the kind of obsessive detail that would make a hedge fund analyst blush.

Why subscribe? Because in markets this inefficient, information creates alpha. Our subscribers knew which coaches were dead men walking months before the mainstream media caught on. They understood which programs were quietly transforming their recruiting apparatuses while competitors slept.

The smart money is already positioning for 2025. Are you?

Click below—it’s free—and join the small group of people who understand the real value of college football’s new economy.

Free Subscription
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Arkansas Football 2025 Season Preview: Sam Pittman’s Survival Test Begins Now

Mark Haines on June 23, 2025

Sam Pittman is coaching for his job.

After five seasons in Fayetteville, the Arkansas head coach finds himself in an impossible position. He’s 29-31 overall and 14-28 in SEC play. ESPN senior writer Adam Rittenberg placed Pittman in the “Can’t backslide” tier on his coaching hot seat rankings, writing that “Pittman is just 30-31 and 14-28 in SEC play, and might need to match or exceed his 2024 output to secure his spot for 2025.”

The math is simple: another mediocre season equals a coaching change. The 2025 season is no longer about potential. It’s about survival.

The Quarterback Question Gets Answered

Taylen Green is coming back.

The most important decision Arkansas made this offseason was retaining its 6-foot-6 dual-threat quarterback for his senior season. “I’m deeply thankful to God for putting me in the position I am today,” Green wrote in a social media post announcing his return. “I appreciate everything Coach Pittman has done for me over the last year.”

Green’s 2024 numbers tell the story of untapped potential:

  • 3,756 total yards of offense (second in program history)
  • 3,154 passing yards and 15 touchdowns
  • 602 rushing yards and 8 rushing touchdowns
  • 9 interceptions and 5 fumbles lost

That turnover problem? It’s the difference between mediocrity and breakthrough. Green acknowledged this heading into spring practice: “It starts with the film room and getting on the same page, getting on the same mode of understanding why I made the decision.”

The quarterback room behind Green remains thin. Redshirt freshman KJ Jackson appears positioned as the primary backup, with true freshman Madden Iamaleava providing depth. Green’s health becomes paramount to everything Arkansas hopes to accomplish.

Complete Roster Reconstruction Through the Portal

Arkansas lost 25 scholarship players to the transfer portal.

They responded by bringing in what Rivals ranks as the eighth-best transfer class in the nation. The departures included every major contributor from the receiving corps, creating the most dramatic roster overhaul in college football.

The numbers tell the story:

  • Lost Andrew Armstrong (1,140 yards receiving)
  • Lost Isaac TeSlaa, Isaiah Sategna, and Luke Hasz
  • Added 7 transfer receivers and 3 high school recruits
  • Targeted the offensive line after allowing 2.1 sacks per game
  • Reinforced defensive line and secondary through the portal

The receiver situation got complicated. According to ActionNetwork’s Collin Wilson, “the wide receiver unit came to Bobby Petrino and Sam Pittman after the season and said, ‘Taylen Green’s got to go or we’re out of here.'” The coaching staff publicly backed Green and moved forward with complete reconstruction.

This wasn’t just roster management. This was program surgery.

Defense Demands Immediate Improvement

The 2024 defense was historically bad by Arkansas standards.

They allowed 25.0 points and 376.1 yards per game while finishing with a minus-eight turnover margin. The unit struggled particularly against elite passing offenses, exemplified by allowing 562 yards to Ole Miss in a 63-31 loss.

The pass rush problems were glaring:

  • Only 26 sacks in 13 games (2.0 per game)
  • Ranked 13th in the SEC in quarterback pressure
  • Lost pass rush specialist Landon Jackson to transfer
  • Must replace five of the top seven tacklers

Defensive coordinators Travis Williams and Marcus Woodson return for their third season, providing scheme continuity. The linebacker corps remains solid with returning contributors. But the defensive line and secondary feature multiple new faces who must gel quickly.

Special teams ranked 84th nationally in efficiency. In a conference where games are decided by three points and missed kicks end seasons, that’s unacceptable.

The Schedule From Hell Awaits

Arkansas faces three College Football Playoff teams from 2024.

Notre Dame, Texas, and Tennessee all made the playoffs. Both games against the Volunteers and Longhorns will be on the road. Arkansas heads to Austin “for the first time since 2008 and just the third time since leaving the Southwest Conference.”

The early-season gauntlet looks brutal:

  • August 30: Alabama A&M (home)
  • September 6: Arkansas State (Little Rock)
  • September 13: at Ole Miss
  • September 20: at Memphis
  • September 27: Notre Dame (home)

October and November offer no relief. Road games at Tennessee, LSU, and Texas. Home contests against Texas A&M, Auburn, Mississippi State, and Missouri that offer opportunities but zero margin for error.

This schedule doesn’t take into account your rebuilding project. It will expose every weakness and punish every mistake.

Recruiting Shows Promise, Development Remains Key

The 2025 recruiting class ranks 27th nationally.

That represents solid progress in talent acquisition under Pittman. The class features 24 commitments, including several players expected to compete for immediate playing time. Combined with transfer portal additions, Arkansas created depth across multiple position groups.

Bobby Petrino enters his second season as offensive coordinator with increased familiarity with the system. As Sports Illustrated’s Andy Hodges reported, Petrino stated regarding Green: “Taylen knows the offense. He’s much more comfortable in it.”

This continuity matters more than people realize:

  • Second year in Petrino’s complex system
  • Established relationships between the quarterback and the coordinator
  • Proven track record of offensive improvement in year two
  • Reduced learning curve for skill position players

The academic excellence continues under Pittman, with the program maintaining high classroom standards while competing at the highest level. This provides recruiting advantages that extend beyond wins and losses.

Cultural Foundation Under Pressure

Here’s something most people don’t realize about Sam Pittman.

As College Football News noted, “Hand raised high, who else didn’t think in any possible way that Sam Pittman would be the third-longest-tenured head coach with his current SEC team? Kirby Smart has been around the longest with Georgia, Kentucky’s Mark Stoops is second, and Pittman is tied with Missouri’s Eli Drinkwitz and Lane Kiffin of Ole Miss for third.”

That tenure provides both advantages and pressure. The familiarity with SEC competition creates recruiting and operational benefits. But the lack of sustained success relative to program expectations increases scrutiny.

Green’s leadership development becomes crucial with significant roster turnover. As he noted regarding his role with new players: “Coaches aren’t out there when we’re throwing, so I’ve got to tell them the depth and when to cut.”

Veteran presence matters when everything else is new.

Success Metrics and Realistic Expectations

Vegas set Arkansas’s win total at 5.5 games.

That reflects the brutal combination of schedule strength and roster reconstruction. Bowl eligibility represents the baseline expectation, with six wins likely necessary for Pittman to survive.

But success extends beyond wins and losses:

  • Turnover margin improvement from minus-eight
  • Red zone efficiency increases from 58% touchdown rate
  • Defensive pressure generation to replace Landon Jackson
  • Competitive performances against ranked opponents

The key question isn’t whether Arkansas can compete with Alabama and Georgia. The key question is whether they can consistently beat the teams they’re supposed to beat while stealing one or two they’re not supposed to win.

Close games against ranked teams and improved efficiency in critical situations would demonstrate program progress even if the overall record remains modest.

The Bottom Line: Progress or Replacement

Arkansas football stands at a crossroads.

The combination of quarterback continuity, strategic roster additions, and coaching staff stability creates the framework for improvement. However, the brutal schedule and elevated expectations leave minimal room for growing pains.

Pittman’s survival depends on demonstrating clear progress while navigating one of college football’s most challenging schedules. The pieces exist for modest success, but execution under pressure determines everything.

For Arkansas, 2025 represents both opportunity and ultimatum.

The foundation exists for competitive football, but translating potential into victories remains the ultimate test for a program that has experienced too many seasons of unfulfilled promise. Sam Pittman is coaching for his job, and everyone in Fayetteville is aware of it.

The Next Billion Dollar Game

College football isn’t just a sport anymore—it’s a high-stakes market where information asymmetry separates winners from losers. While the average fan sees only what happens between the sidelines, real insiders trade on the hidden dynamics reshaping programs from the inside out.

Our team has embedded with the power brokers who run this game. From the coaching carousel to NIL deals to transfer portal strategies, we’ve mapped the entire ecosystem with the kind of obsessive detail that would make a hedge fund analyst blush.

Why subscribe? Because in markets this inefficient, information creates alpha. Our subscribers knew which coaches were dead men walking months before the mainstream media caught on. They understood which programs were quietly transforming their recruiting apparatuses while competitors slept.

The smart money is already positioning for 2025. Are you?

Click below—it’s free—and join the small group of people who understand the real value of college football’s new economy.

Free Subscription
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Oklahoma Football 2025: Is This Brent Venables’ Last Stand?

Mark Haines on June 20, 2025

Oklahoma football’s Brent Venables is officially coaching for his job.

After two losing seasons in three years at one of college football’s most prestigious programs, the Oklahoma head coach finds himself in an impossible position. The Sooners’ 6-7 debut in the SEC wasn’t just disappointing—it was a wake-up call that sent shockwaves through Norman and forced the program into crisis mode.

According to 247Sports’ Brad Crawford, Venables enters the 2025 season on the nation’s hottest seat, facing more pressure than any other coach in college football. Oklahoma’s win total at DraftKings sits at just 6.5 wins. At most programs, that might be acceptable. But Oklahoma isn’t most programs.

This is a program with 950 wins, seven national championships, and zero tolerance for mediocrity.

The Numbers Don’t Lie—Venables Is Running Out of Time

Here’s what Venables is up against:

  • A 22-17 overall record in three seasons
  • Two losing seasons (6-7 in both 2022 and 2024)
  • A 2-6 debut in SEC play that left Oklahoma tied for 13th in the standings
  • The program’s worst scoring offense since 1998 (24.0 points per game)
  • A schedule that ESPN ranks as the toughest in college football

“I know the buyout is considerable, but if he suffers a losing season for a third time in four years at Oklahoma, the Sooners are going to be looking for a new head coach after the 2025 season,” Crawford said.

The math is simple. Another losing season equals a coaching change.

Oklahoma Went All-In on a Complete Program Overhaul

When faced with the potential collapse of its program, Oklahoma did something remarkable.

They didn’t just make incremental changes. They burned everything to the ground and started over. The university hired a third-party consultant to evaluate every aspect of the program. What followed was nothing short of revolutionary:

  • Hired two new coordinators (Ben Arbuckle on offense, defensive restructuring)
  • Installed an entirely new front office with seven staffers
  • Brought in former NFL executive Jim Nagy as general manager
  • Added 21 transfer portal players to address critical weaknesses
  • Even hired a new trainer with NFL connections

This wasn’t just roster tinkering. This was organizational warfare against mediocrity.

The crown jewel of this transformation? Landing John Mateer, the No. 1 quarterback in the transfer portal.

John Mateer: The $34.9 Million Question

Everything hinges on one player.

Mateer arrives from Washington State with ridiculous production: 3,139 passing yards, 29 passing touchdowns, 826 rushing yards, and 15 rushing touchdowns in 2024. His 44 total touchdowns led all of college football—more than Heisman finalist Cam Ward (41) and Clemson’s Cade Klubnik.

But here’s what makes Mateer special: he’s reuniting with offensive coordinator Ben Arbuckle, the mastermind behind Washington State’s explosive offense. The chemistry is already there. The system is proven. The question is whether it can translate to the brutal SEC gauntlet.

“John Mateer, the Washington State quarterback transfer—he’s gotta be a guy. He can’t just be someone that comes in there and has 20 touchdown passes. He’s gotta have 30 to 32 touchdown passes for Oklahoma to be a major contender and for Brent Venables to get off the nation’s hottest seat.”

No pressure, right?

Venables Made One Smart Decision: He’s Calling Defense Again

When your job is on the line, you go back to what made you successful.

Venables built his reputation as one of college football’s elite defensive coordinators. At Clemson, his defenses were legendary. At Oklahoma, the defense has actually been the bright spot—allowing just 21.5 points per game in 2024 and ranking 29th nationally in scoring defense.

So when defensive coordinator Zach Alley bolted for West Virginia, Venables made the obvious choice. He’s taking back defensive play-calling duties.

“Why am I gonna call the defense? Because I’m good at it,” Venables said. “I’m confident in it.”

This move accomplishes three things:

  • It puts the defense in the hands of a proven coordinator
  • It frees up resources to focus on offensive improvements
  • It plays to Venables’ greatest strength during a make-or-break season

Smart coaches know when to bet on themselves.

The Schedule From Hell Awaits

Here’s the brutal truth about Oklahoma’s 2025 schedule.

ESPN’s SP+ ranks it as the toughest in college football. The Sooners will face eight teams projected to start the season in the top 25. There are no easy games. No breathers. No margin for error.

The gauntlet includes:

  • Michigan at home in Week 2
  • Auburn, Texas, Ole Miss, Missouri, and LSU in conference play
  • Road trips to South Carolina, Tennessee, and Alabama
  • The annual Red River Rivalry that could define seasons

This schedule could either validate Oklahoma’s transformation or expose it as window dressing. Success against this competition would immediately change national perception. Failure would seal Venables’ fate.

What Success Actually Looks Like in 2025

Forget about playoff dreams for now.

Oklahoma needs to prove three fundamental things in 2025:

  • The offense can score consistently (targeting 30+ points per game)
  • The team can compete physically with SEC opponents week after week
  • Venables can develop the roster depth necessary for long-term success

Most analysts project 7-5 or 8-4, which would represent clear progress while falling short of traditional Oklahoma standards. But here’s the reality: a winning season and bowl appearance might be enough to buy Venables another year.

The key metrics extend beyond wins and losses. Can Mateer throw for 30+ touchdowns? Can the offensive line protect him against SEC pass rushes? Can the defense create turnovers and game-changing plays?

These are the questions that will determine whether Oklahoma’s transformation succeeds or fails.

This Is Make-or-Break Time for Everyone

Oklahoma’s 2025 season represents the ultimate high-stakes gamble.

Venables has bet his career on a complete program overhaul. Athletic director Joe Castiglione has invested heavily in new infrastructure and personnel. The fanbase is demanding immediate results after years of frustration.

In a recent ESPN article, analyst Bill Connelly noted that Mateer and Arbuckle’s additions make Oklahoma “one of the most interesting teams in college football” heading into 2025. The pieces are in place for dramatic improvement.

But potential means nothing in the SEC. Execution under pressure determines everything.

For Venables, 2025 isn’t just another season—it’s his final audition. The combination of Mateer’s proven production, Arbuckle’s innovative system, and a defense with established talent creates the framework for success.

The question isn’t whether Oklahoma has the tools to compete.

The question is whether they can use them before it’s too late.

The Next Billion Dollar Game

College football isn’t just a sport anymore—it’s a high-stakes market where information asymmetry separates winners from losers. While the average fan sees only what happens between the sidelines, real insiders trade on the hidden dynamics reshaping programs from the inside out.

Our team has embedded with the power brokers who run this game. From the coaching carousel to NIL deals to transfer portal strategies, we’ve mapped the entire ecosystem with the kind of obsessive detail that would make a hedge fund analyst blush.

Why subscribe? Because in markets this inefficient, information creates alpha. Our subscribers knew which coaches were dead men walking months before the mainstream media caught on. They understood which programs were quietly transforming their recruiting apparatuses while competitors slept.

The smart money is already positioning for 2025. Are you?

Click below—it’s free—and join the small group of people who understand the real value of college football’s new economy.

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Vanderbilt Football 2025: The Year Everything Changes

Mark Haines on June 19, 2025

Vanderbilt football is about to prove that 2024 wasn’t a fluke.

The Commodores shocked college football last season with their first winning record since 2013, capped by a bowl victory that had Nashville celebrating like they’d won the national championship. Now comes the real test: can they do it again?

The answer lies in understanding what makes this program different from every other SEC bottom-feeder that has enjoyed a brief moment in the sun before crashing back to earth.

The Foundation That Won’t Crack

Diego Pavia isn’t just returning for his final season.

He’s returning as the most proven dual-threat quarterback in the SEC, a player who accounted for 3,094 total yards and 28 touchdowns while throwing just four interceptions in 2024. His 143.5 passer rating wasn’t a statistical accident. It was the result of a quarterback who understands how to manage games, create explosive plays, and deliver when everything is on the line.

Pavia was selected the league’s first-ever Newcomer of the Year, presented to the league’s top player who had not previously competed in the SEC and was not eligible for Freshman of the Year, according to the official Vanderbilt athletics website.

But here’s what makes his return even more valuable:

  • He’s publicly declared Vanderbilt’s intent to “run Tennessee”
  • He’s already proven he can beat the best teams in the country (see: Alabama upset)
  • He brings the kind of swagger that transforms program culture

Joining Pavia is All-SEC tight end Eli Stowers, who became the first Vanderbilt offensive player to earn first-team All-SEC honors since 2013 after catching 49 passes for 638 yards and five touchdowns.

This isn’t just talent returning—it’s proven, battle-tested production.

The Defense Gets Serious About Stopping People

Vanderbilt’s defense allowed 376.5 yards per game in 2024, which sounds terrible until you realize where they started.

The unit jumped from 126th to 50th in scoring defense and from 104th to 52nd in rushing defense during the 2024 season. That’s not incremental improvement—that’s a complete transformation of identity.

Now they’re doubling down on that progress:

  • Steve Gregory promoted to full defensive coordinator after proving his system works
  • Pass rush specialist Will Smart added to maximize pressure packages
  • Nine defensive starters returning, including linebacker Bryan Longwell (89 tackles) and the Fontenette-Capers pass rush duo (16 combined sacks)

The transfer portal reinforcements tell the story of a program that knows exactly what it needs:

  • Safety CJ Heard from Florida Atlantic brings proven playmaking ability
  • Defensive linemen Mason Nelson (Western Michigan), Jaylon Stone (Miami-OH), and Clinton Azubuike (Northern Arizona) add crucial depth
  • Secondary additions Jordan Mathews (Tennessee) and others address coverage concerns

This isn’t hope-based roster building—it’s surgical improvement of specific weaknesses.

The Schedule That Will Define Everything

Vanderbilt will face seven opponents that reached the postseason in 2024, including College Football Playoff teams Texas and Tennessee.

This schedule doesn’t care about your feel-good story. It will expose every weakness, punish every mistake, and test whether this program has truly turned the corner or just enjoyed a brief moment of overachievement.

The critical dates that will define the season:

  • August 30 vs Charleston Southern – No trap games allowed
  • October 4 at Alabama – The revenge game, exactly 364 days after the upset
  • November 1 at Texas – First trip to Austin since 1903
  • November 29 at Tennessee – The rivalry game that could define the future

October and November will be brutal:

  • Four SEC road games at South Carolina, Alabama, Texas, and Tennessee
  • Home contests against LSU, Missouri, Auburn, and Kentucky that offer opportunities but zero margin for error
  • A November slate that could either cement their reputation or expose them as pretenders

The schedule is college football’s truth serum—and Vanderbilt is about to find out what they’re really made of.

Money Talks, and Vanderbilt Is Finally Speaking the Language

The Anchor Impact Fund has raised over $2.1 million to support athletes, but that’s not the whole story.

The real story is how Vanderbilt is using NIL strategically rather than throwing money around hoping something sticks. They’re targeting specific needs, combining competitive packages with immediate playing time, and leveraging Nashville’s unique market appeal.

Here’s why their approach works:

  • Portal-focused roster building that brought in nine starters for 2024’s breakthrough
  • Strategic targeting of undervalued transfers rather than bidding wars for five-stars
  • Emphasis on holistic development, including financial literacy and branding support

The new NCAA settlement, which allows up to $20.5 million in direct athlete compensation, will still favor programs with deeper pockets. But Vanderbilt has proven you don’t need to outspend everyone—you just need to spend smarter than everyone.

Clark Lea Isn’t Going Anywhere, and That Changes Everything

Their NIL success directly contributed to retaining players like Pavia while attracting impact transfers who might otherwise choose programs with bigger checkbooks but smaller opportunities.

Lea was the first Vanderbilt coach to be voted Coach of the Year by his peers since 2008 and the first Vandy head man to win it outright since 1982, according to Sports Illustrated’s coverage of his SEC Coach of the Year recognition.

But accolades don’t build programs—stability does.

Lea’s contract extension through 2029 provides something Vanderbilt hasn’t had in decades: continuity. His deep connection as an alumnus who played for the program creates emotional investment that transcends typical coaching arrangements.

The coaching staff tells the story of a program that values both continuity and evolution:

  • Offensive coordinator Tim Beck returns with proven success developing Pavia
  • Defensive coordinator Steve Gregory promoted after engineering dramatic improvement
  • Strategic additions like pass rush specialist Will Smart show a commitment to specialized expertise

This isn’t a coach waiting for a better opportunity—it’s a coach building something lasting.

Special Teams: The Advantage Nobody Talks About

Kicker Brock Taylor converted 85.7% of field goals and 97.5% of extra points in 2024.

In a conference where games are decided by three points and missed kicks end seasons, that reliability is worth multiple wins. Punter Jesse Mirco averaged 48.0 yards per punt, providing field position advantages that often proved decisive.

Return specialists Junior Sherrill and Martel Hight both scored touchdowns in 2024, adding explosive potential that can flip momentum in crucial moments.

Special teams excellence isn’t glamorous, but it’s the foundation of every program that consistently outperforms expectations.

The Sustainability Test

Every SEC program has good seasons—few have sustainable success.

Vanderbilt enters 2025 facing the ultimate test: can they maintain competitiveness while navigating elevated expectations, increased media attention, and the constant threat of player defections through the transfer portal?

The answers lie in their systematic approach:

  • Academic excellence (31st consecutive semester above 3.0 GPA) provides recruiting differentiation
  • Cultural foundation built on development rather than just talent acquisition
  • Strategic roster management that emphasizes fit over pure star power

Most analysts project a 6-6 record, but that projection undersells the program’s potential if defensive improvements materialize and key players stay healthy.

Bowl eligibility remains the primary goal, but consecutive winning seasons would represent program-altering achievement in a conference that has historically treated Vanderbilt as a guaranteed victory.

Why This Time Is Different

Vanderbilt football isn’t just building for 2025—they’re building for the next decade.

The combination of Pavia’s final season, strategic roster reinforcement, and coaching staff continuity creates the best foundation this program has enjoyed in over a decade. More importantly, they’ve proven they can develop culture, manage resources, and compete against elite talent.

The schedule provides zero margin for error but offers maximum opportunity for statement victories that could permanently elevate their national profile.

Success in November—particularly against Kentucky and Tennessee—won’t just validate the 2024 breakthrough. It will establish Vanderbilt as a permanent factor in SEC competition rather than an occasional disruptor.

The question isn’t whether Vanderbilt can compete in the SEC anymore.

The question is whether they can sustain that competitiveness while building toward something even greater. The 2025 season will provide the definitive answer to college football’s most intriguing sustainability question.

And for the first time in decades, the smart money is on the Commodores proving that lightning can indeed strike twice in Nashville.

The Next Billion Dollar Game

College football isn’t just a sport anymore—it’s a high-stakes market where information asymmetry separates winners from losers. While the average fan sees only what happens between the sidelines, real insiders trade on the hidden dynamics reshaping programs from the inside out.

Our team has embedded with the power brokers who run this game. From the coaching carousel to NIL deals to transfer portal strategies, we’ve mapped the entire ecosystem with the kind of obsessive detail that would make a hedge fund analyst blush.

Why subscribe? Because in markets this inefficient, information creates alpha. Our subscribers knew which coaches were dead men walking months before the mainstream media caught on. They understood which programs were quietly transforming their recruiting apparatuses while competitors slept.

The smart money is already positioning for 2025. Are you?

Click below—it’s free—and join the small group of people who understand the real value of college football’s new economy.

Free Subscription
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